Baseball Betting System

Mentioned a couple of weeks ago I’d explain a system I developed how to determine if the money line is accurate in baseball and determine if you as the bettor could take advantage of it.

In any type of wagering, it is important to know if a number is close or way off base. Any number of different power rating systems are available, however I created one that I use as ground work to help formulate opinion on a game. Note, I did not say the reason for a selection, but to have a fundamental principle. MLB is a grind and you need to understand what the numbers mean. After almost two weeks of the baseball season, the numbers start to develop in a manner that is useful to check the lines. Here are the criteria I developed to help make me a more consistent winner.

1) Teams winning percentage
2) Teams situational record home or away (percentage)
3) Teams Record over the last 7 games (percentage)
4) Teams Bullpen won/loss record (percentage)
5) Teams Save percentage
6) Starting pitchers current record + record vs. opponent since 2001 (percentage)

I start with the team’s record, which is important because that is how they have played on the season. Next is how a team plays either at home or away over the course of the year. The last seven games give an indication of how each team has been playing lately; paying particular attention to how many runs and hits they’ve accumulated during this stretch to formulate stronger opinion. With fewer and fewer starting pitchers going deep into games because of mangers nervous about the front office types and pitch counts, the bullpens importance has been enhanced tremendously. The bullpens win/lost record tells the story about their performance to hold or lose leads during the course of the games and save percentage tells me about how they finish off games. The starting pitchers current record shows his season-to-date performance and the historical number explains about a pitcher against particular teams.

Here is what a game match-up would look like with the corresponding numbers from above.

5-8-08 – Brewers at Marlins (Brewers-125)

Brewers Marlins

1) 484 575

2) 450 550

3) 142 571

4) 600 600

5) 632 667

6) 250 714

Total - 2558 3677

Early in the year, the numbers are somewhat less accurate given the number of games played. As this season moves forward, the numbers become tighter and more accurate. The Brewers have been slumping, winning just one in last seven outings, while the Marlins have been playing decent baseball. In theory, the matchup of Carlos Villanueva at 1-3, 5.56 ERA of Milwaukee, taking on Mark Hendrickson (5-1, 3.77 ERA) of the Fish (Hendrickson has loss to Milwaukee in 2006) appears to be a complete mismatch.

Now take the Totals and divide by the number of lines, in this case six.

3677 divided by 6 and 2558 divided by 6.

The Marlins new number becomes 612 and the Brewers at 431. Then subtract the higher number against the lower.

612 – 431 = 181

Use this number and divide by 2.

181 divided by 2 = 90.5

I’ll round the number down each time, in this case to 90. From here I check the official line, with most sportsbooks having the Brewers -125. Anytime I have a difference greater then 40, which I do in this case, this contest is now a potential play.

This example has the Brewers -125; with this system I have the Marlins at -190, difference of 115. (Florida won 7-2)

The entire process of your typical 15-game schedule takes me about 60-70 minutes if I can do it at a sitting. Otherwise, typically I do the math the night before, since I’m in West Coast time zone and have more final scores from the previous day.

It is important to be familiar with all the teams and know other factors in making a profit from wagering on baseball. As I said in the beginning, this method hones in on how accurate a money line actually is giving you a better opportunity to win.

Of course other unique situational factors occur like a new starting pitcher from the minors or trades changing dynamics of teams. If you choose to use this method, you will develop your own personal tastes in which you can have the same success as I’ve had in betting baseball over the years since developing this method.

Learning Baseball Better

If you are a real baseball fan and have an interest to learn while watching or wagering on baseball, you should be watching Monday night's on ESPN. Play-by-play announcer Dan Shulman is one of the best in the business. Always prepared, insightful and never afraid to interject a well thoughtout opinion. Joining him are Steve Phillips, former Mets GM and Orel Hershiser, a long time MLB pitcher, who also served as pitching coach for Texas and later worked in the front office for the Rangers.


Phillips is the key ingredient, with a different perspective than typical analysts. He not afraid to offer an opinion and will go after a player for not hustling or what he perceives as poor judgement by a manager. He will tackle issues concerning team's front office work, though occasionally will take on sorrow grapes persona from his previous work. Nevertheless, no shortage of keen insights on the various aspects of baseball.


Hershiser's expertise is pitching and is able to explain what he sees much like he pitched, with precision. Hershiser can go quiet in the booth and does much better with a strong play-by-play guy like Shulman. Additionally, with Phillips bringing up thought provoking topics, he engages Hershiser to share his thoughts, which are often excellent.


While a big fan of Jack Buck paired with almost anyone, I can't imagine anyone with a real interest in baseball not coming away with three-to-five really intriguing bits of information, they would not have learned if they had not watched.

Boston this big a Favorite? Maybe

Who would have thought the Boston Celtics would have been the team to hold up the proceeding, making this the last conference semi-final to commence in the NBA playoffs? The dynamics of a Cleveland and Celtics series are exhilarating, though for the most part flawed, as was shown in each team’s first round matchups. Boston’s a huge betting favorite to win the series, but should they be?

Most sportsbooks have Boston as -800 favorite or higher to win series over the Cavaliers, with five games the most popular exact bet at 3-2 odds. The Celtics needed seven games to dismiss of what appears to be up and coming Atlanta franchise, yet last we checked they are still the Hawks. For a team that was 31-10 on the road with 28-13 ATS record, they were awfully unsure of themselves. What has to be a real concern for coach Doc Rivers, off his first ever playoff series win, is his team was outscored 74-54 in three games in Atlanta in the four quarter, never once making it to 20 points in final stanza. It was Kevin Garnett passing up open shots, Paul Pierce losing poise and reportedly flashing L.A. gang signs, while Ray Allen will not be accused of being Robert Horry in clutch situations. The Celtics are 39-6 and 29-15-1 at TD Banknorth Garden, where they will be the first two games. The Pierce posse is 9-1 ATS after game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 35 percent or less this season.

Cleveland took one game longer to defeat Washington than expected, after LeBron James put an end to the Wizards nonsense in six. The Cavaliers are nowhere near as athletic as Atlanta, yet with James, could create a lot of difficulties for Boston. As Joe Johnson showed, the Celtics have matchup issues with swing players that can shoot or drive to the basket from different angles. James is a superior passer to Johnson, or anyone else the Hawks had, which creates opportunities for shooters like Delonte West, Daniel Gibson and Wally Szezerbiak. If these guys make shots, Cleveland becomes much more dangerous. On the year, Cleveland was only 12-18 as road underdogs, yet managed 17-13 ATS record. Coach Mike Brown’s team also does a good job competing, with 13-5 ATS record versus good shooting teams, making 46 percent or more of their shots this season.

LeBron’s will is probably worth a victory or two, especially as underdog and if his teammates follow his lead and Boston is cavalier in approach again, who knows. Boston is still the more talented team with more playmakers, nonetheless six or seven games can not be ruled out. These teams split four contests with Cleveland covering three. Can easily see the Cavs covering the majority of these East semi-final affairs, with the Under being strongest total play throughout the series.

Doug's take - Celtics in six