Saturday Selections

After one full week, our plays have gone 12-7-1, which is nicely profitable. The consensus plays continue to win and another is available right now in baseball. The Top Trend delves into the NBA looking at the performance of a team playing well at home. Have a real simple MLB system that is 83.3 percent. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – The Angels bullpen is really a mess.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing 10 runs or more. This team is Baltimore and clubs like them lose 83.3 percent of the time with 90-18 record.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Portland is 12-1 ATS in home games after three or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The LCC has a 6-0 margin on Seattle over Detroit.

NBA Playoff Betting Window Open

The first day of the professional basketball postseason marathon is ready to commence. By the time a champion is crowned, a fairly serious golfer could lower his handicap by a few strokes. The weekend is designed to answer questions in each series, thus we’ll stick with the simple theme of following Saturday games. Without Kevin Garnett, will Boston be able to cover spreads and hold off sizzling Chicago? Will Cleveland be thinking about Boston and overlook Detroit as double digit favorites? Can San Antonio go from terrific trio to dynamic duo and hold off Dallas and is a young Portland club ready to blaze a trail and knock off Houston? The answers start formulating today.

Chicago at Boston 12:35 E ESPN

Chicago arrives in Beantown having won 12 of 16 (9-7 ATS) to finish .500. The Bulls have outstanding guards like Derrick Rose and Ben Gordon and John Salmons can be special as wing player. Chicago played their best against the best with 12-3 ATS record against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. A number of people like Chicago to take this series deep because Garnett won’t be available and the Bulls can shoot the three-ball effectively. Though Chicago drops 38.1 percent from deep, Boston was the best in the NBA at 39.7 percent, effectively negating that edge. The Celtics are 8.5-point favorite with total of 196.5 at Bookmaker.com and are 5-12 ATS in last 17 home games. Boston has averaged 112 points per game against Bulls in last six games and is 6-1 SU and ATS roll in this matchup.

Detroit at Cleveland 3:05 E ABC

Cleveland’s a 12-point favorite over Detroit, which appears to be right against a lamentable squad that finished the season 6-12 (7-11 ATS). Detroit can wipe the slate clean if they reignite the pilot light and play with a semblance of passion. Maybe a couple days of rest will fuel the Pistons who are 16-4 ATS in road games when playing with two days off. Cleveland has to catch itself from looking too far ahead and LeBron James should take care of that. If the Cavs play with the same desire they should most of the year, they should lock up limited Detroit offense and push the ball to force the Pistons to run. If that happens, Cleveland cruises and favorites move to 9-1 ATS in this series.

Dallas at San Antonio 8:05 E ESPN

At least from the start, this is the craziest series to put your hands around. They may as well play these games in Houston because being a favorite in this Texas tussle means virtually nothing. Since the beginning of the 2005-06 season, the favorite is 11-12 and unfathomable 6-17 ATS. San Antonio can still play defense and has won five of six, showing 26-15 ATS record against teams who permit 99 or more points like Dallas. The Mavericks won seven of last nine contests to move all the way up to sixth seed and are four-point underdogs to the Spurs. Dallas has covered seven of last eight with two days rest and takes on Tim Duncan team that is 5-13 ATS in a home game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (current line 185.5). The Spurs are in familiar spot and are 14-4 ATS as three-seed.

Houston at Portland 10:35 E ESPN

Thinking about is 4 vs 5 matchup, this figures to be close series, with loads of ways to view it. Yao Ming should have his way in the pivot for Houston, however Portland will keep rotating fresh bodies from their plentiful array and can Ming keep from wearing down? Look for Ron Artest and Shane Battier to tag along with Brandon Roy. With the size and strength those two possess, does Roy have the legs in the last four minutes to make critical baskets? The Trailblazers were teeming at home with 34-7 (26-14-1 ATS) mark and come in on six-game winning streak. At the Rose Garden the Blazers are 9-1 ATS off four or more straight wins. The Rockets might be a bit testy, losing last game to give away home court in this series and are 28-12 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.

Friday Free Plays from 3Daily Winners

The system was correct, but it was under our standards, thus had to settle for 1-1 day, moving record to 10-6-1 the last six days. Today’s best system is 80.4 percent and looks at an American League encounter. The Left Coast Connection has been knocking down winners this week and has another consensus play. The Top Trend is 18-1 on a particular pitcher. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – The Phoenix Suns are the first team in NBA history to lead the league in scoring and field goal percentage and NOT make the playoffs.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON (AL) home teams scoring 5.4 or more runs a game against a team with a good bullpen (ERA of 3.75 or less), and this team is red hot with the lumber, batting .350 or better over their last three games. The Texas Rangers fit this profile for a system that is 45-11, 80.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) James Shields and Tampa Bay are 18-1 against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The LCC has 11 bettors on Florida Marlins in our nation’s capital.

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Baseball Series Betting- San Diego at Philadelphia

Baseball in April is a lot like a horse race going to the first turn. The favorites don’t normally charge out of the gate and long-shots will frequently have the lead as the ponies disappear around the first curve. This happens in baseball almost every year and no better way to make this point is to see the San Diego Padres tied for first place in the National League West. Everyone expected and still expects San Diego to be one of the weaker teams in the senior circuit; however as major league baseball heads into its second weekend, the Pads are part of the biggest stories to start the season.

Owner John Moores is in the middle of a nasty divorce and due to California community property laws, Moores will have to sell all or parts of the franchise. This leads to taking a bare-bones approach to running the franchise, as was witnessed last year when San Diego won 63 games. This makes the Padres a collection of retreads and young players who may or may not be major league material. That’s not to say San Diego has no talent, with All-Star Adrian Gonzalez at first base, hard-working David Eckstein at second and Brian Giles in right. Names less known are Jody Gerut in center, who is hitting almost .290, Chase Headley is over the .300 barrier with on-base percentage of .360 and catcher Nick Hundley has better numbers than Headley.

A bigger reason why San Diego has started so well is pitching. They are seventh in runs allowed at 3.8 per game, with teams hitting just .235 against them. A remade bullpen without Trevor Huffman has an ERA of 2.40 and is five for five in save chances. Though Jake Peavy is still likely to be traded (sources now have Philadelphia as strong contender), tonight’s starter Chris Young (2-0, 1.38) has acted like an ace, striking out 12 in 13 innings and allowing only two walks. Though the money line has fallen considerably; Young and the Pads are 6-0 as +150 or more underdogs.

Philadelphia has had to deal with many distractions, the unfortunate passing of legendary announcer Harry Kalas and the wonderment of what is up with tonight’s starter Cole Hamels (0-1, 17.18 ERA). Hamels insists his elbow and arm are fine, despite the loss of seven-mph on fastball in first start in Colorado. Hamels incurred a heavy workload in winning World Series and many believe it has taken its toll. Don’t count Hamels among those that believe and pitching coach Rich Dubee insists he’s just behind from not being able to throw enough in the spring. Oddsmakers still favor the Phillies at -168 and the left-hander and Philly are 14-1 as a home favorite of -150 to -200 over the last two seasons.

Game 1 Edge: San Diego

This is will be a four-game series, which concludes on Monday, but as always the case in this situation; the first three games are how series wagers are determined. Last season the Phillies bullpen was as important a reason as any as to why they became baseball’s best. This group has not started as well in 2009, with a 4.97 ERA. What has been the bugaboo is surrendering seven home runs in 29 innings. The slimmed down Brett Myers (1-1, 5.54) was more effective in second start giving up only four hits over seven innings. Myers control has been improved, a little too good as it turns out. He’s struck out 12 with only two free passes, but six of the dozen hits he’s allowed have gone over the wall. Myers and the Phils are 23-6 against the NL West. San Diego counters with Shawn Hill (1-0, 3.60), who pitched fairly well in his Padres debut. Don’t expect great things from the right-hander as a starter, having not pitched more than 103 innings in five years. Watch the for line on game two, with Philadelphia coming into the series 22-4 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 and 7-1 on Saturday’s.

Game 2 Edge: Philadelphia

If the probable starting pitchers are correct, Game 3 might have a few runs scored. San Diego will start Walter Silva (0-0, 6.52), who hadn’t pitched as professional in the U.S. until he faced the Mets last Monday. Silva pitched well for four innings until tiring in the fifth and blew 5-1 lead. He has a good assortment of pitches, which is how he made the big club. Silva has to be right, since the Friars are 5-19 vs. teams whose hitters strike out six or less times a game coming in the City of Brotherly Love. Chan Ho Park (0-0, 10.38) doesn’t have a long leash one would imagine and has to do better than allowing five runs in just 3 1/3 innings. At 35, Park should be a middle reliever, pitching for the Dodgers. In his career he has 2.96 ERA at Dodger Stadium and over 5.20 ERA everywhere else.

Game 3 Edge: Philadelphia

The series finale has Kevin Correia (0-1, 4.09) taking on Jamie Moyer (1-1, 6.55).

Philadelphia comes into the series at .500 and Jimmy Rollins struggling at the dish batting .111. This is a chance for the Phillies to start making a little headway and building momentum. Though the pitching has been disheartening to start, San Diego is batting .236 as a team, which means they are beatable if you score against them. Taking this into consideration, have to play the Phils in series wager, despite the Pads hot start.

Bookmaker.com series odds: Philadelphia -300, San Diego +220

3DW Pick: Philadelphia

2009 Record – 1-0

Beers with Red Wydley

We’re sitting here at Alice Cooper’s restaurant in downtown Phoenix with professional gambler and sometimes writer Red Wydley. Red (not his real name) lives in Nevada and has been a long time gambler who has managed to survive as bettor and golf hustler for years and he was in Phoenix area playing golf with “friends” and agreed to sit down with me and share his thoughts about the NBA and upcoming playoffs.

3Daily Winners: What were your general impressions of the NBA season and did you have successful season wagering?

Red Wydley: I thought the season was better than in the last few years, there were more watch-able games and matchups that were at least viewable. I don’t watch a ton of NBA games; I more follow boxscores and patterns of teams play. That’s not to say I don’t watch any games, mostly the last 15 or so to see who looks right for the playoffs. I won betting the NBA, but what the hell, I should, that’s how I make money to live.

3DW: The NBA is the last bastion in professional sports where the best teams win the championship, not the hottest at the time. Recent examples in other sports are St. Louis and Philadelphia in baseball and the New York Giants and almost Arizona in football. With how this works in the NBA, that takes away a lot of the drama and who doesn’t think the NBA Finals will have the Lakers, Cleveland or Boston, what do you think?

Red: I think that was a really long question. You’re probably right, but what’s wrong with that? If those are the three best teams, fine. In the other sports, star players aren’t as important as the NBA. The best teams have the best players, if the best player doesn’t play his best, than his team will lose, like what happened with Kobe (Bryant) in the finals last year. The other sports have more players that are dependent on one another for success. You mention the Cardinals winning the World Series, who remembers who won the MVP? The Giants got confidence from losing to New England and later beat them in the Super Bowl, that doesn’t happen in the NBA.

3DW: The big story as the playoffs start is the report that Kevin Garnett might not play at all, what does that do to Boston’s chances of repeating?

Red: Kills them. Garnett is the heart and soul of the Celtics, but not there most clutch player. Almost every NBA champion has had two superstars and third player who made generous contributions. Paul Pierce is ruthless at crunch time and Ray Allen hits big shots all the time. Garnett is a contributor and defensive leader, not the guy. Think of him a Ray Lewis of the Ravens. You can play great defense, but somebody has to score. Who takes Garnett’s place, Marbury? (Laughing out loud) By the way nice shirt, how did your wife let you out of the house?

3DW: I actually like it, moving ahead, Chicago won 12 of last 16, can they upset Boston?

Red: Oh my god no. The Bulls made a run to make the playoffs with (Derrick) Rose and good players at guard and wing spots. Garnett’s absence gives the Bulls a chance to win one game, two if they are really lucky. Rajon Rondo is quicker than any Bulls guard and I expect Doc Rivers to punch the ball inside to (Kendrick) Perkins and (Leon) Powe, whose going to stop them, Joakim Noah? Maybe with his dad’s tennis racket. Most people forget how well the Celtics shoot the three-ball. Five games tops.

3DW: Detroit was one of the biggest disappoints in the NBA this season, can this aging team even win a game, or is Cleveland a best bet in sweep.

Red: The Pistons should win a game, as long as it’s a best of nine. I’ve watched the Pistons play four times the last month and this is a team that needs to be blown up like Phoenix. Detroit plays like they could care less and they lack cohesiveness, with a crummy mix of players. If Rasheed Wallace and Richard Hamilton have a terrific game together, maybe the Pistons take one; I don’t even see that happening.

3DW: Orlando may have been the best bet in the NBA (50-32 ATS), but they closed with 4-5 record, how do you see series with Philadelphia and can they beat Celtics?

Red: The Magic played real bored, even when they were fighting for second seed in April. The playoffs should energize them, but Orlando will have tougher time with Sixers than most think. Philadelphia is quicker than Orlando, even with lead-footed Andre Miller playing. I’ll take the Magic in six with closer games than people will expect. I give Orlando a chance to knock off Boston without Garnett, though I’d rather make that bet with your money than mine.

3DW: I’ve read and seen coach Jerry Sloan talk about his Utah club that has played with less enthusiasm than Lindsey Lohan after breaking up with gal-pal Samantha Ronson, losing seven of nine. Any reason to think Utah wins a game.

Red: Do you want me to see if I can book you as warm-up for Carrot Top? It might be time for Sloan to turn coaching reins over to somebody else. I think they have given up like 112 points (113.1) a game in their last 10 except for playing the Clips and that doesn’t count anyways. Lakers fans will only see the Jazz twice in the playoffs.

3DW: San Antonio and Dallas both showed heart to finish the season, setting up Texas 3vs6 showdown. This series is always about the visitor, what happens?

Red: I’m looking forward to this series. Reminds me of Ali-Frazier’s third fight. Two teams past their prime, but showing courage to the end. San Antonio will benefit from having three, two days of rest if the series goes at least six games. I like the way Dallas is playing right now and the home court means nothing in this series, betting Cuban’s in seven.

3DW: You mention the breaks between games; does it bother you as much as it bothers me?

Red: Hate it, hate it, hate it. I understand the whole TV revenue aspect, but the first round goes on for what seems a month! When I was kid, I remember going out to eat on Mother’s Day and she was pissed because my dad wanted to get home to watch Game 7 of the Finals between Milwaukee in Boston. It was the last game of the whole deal, which today is about the first or second game of the second round, ridiculous.

3DW: I concur. Do you think New Orleans can upset Denver?

Red: I know where you are going with this. If New Orleans was 100 percent healthy, I’d seriously have to consider it, since George Karl has proven to be a sap of the playoff coach. I’ve made enough money to stay at the Four Seasons for a month, betting against him in the playoffs. He does a lousy job making adjustments, but this team is different as Chauncey Billups brought winning attitude and they have the right mix of players with Carmelo, J.R. Smith and (Chris) Anderson adding more flexibility. I can see where people would like the Hornets as they are really made for playoff basketball, just not this year.

3DW: In the 4vs5 series, there are intriguing potential individual matchups. Dwayne Wade vs Joe Johnson and Yao Ming vs Greg Oden, what do you see occurring?

Red: You’re joking right? Am I on new episode of Punk’d? Johnson is a good NBA player, but not even in the same class as Wade. If Johnson has to guard Wade without help, he’d wish he never left Phoenix. I only saw Portland play three times and Oden missed each game. I spoke to one of my contacts earlier and asked him about this specific matchup and he confided that Oden will probably only guard Ming about a third of the time with (Joe) Przybilla and (LaMarcus) Aldridge all splitting time. As far as series, have to do more home work, preferring Blazers and Heat looking at your ugly shirt.

3DW: OK, quick questions needing quick answers. Biggest chance for first round upset?

Red: Dallas

3DW: The East Finals has …?

Red: Cleveland and, and Orlando?

3DW: Notice the hesitation. The West Finals has?

Red: You get paid to observe people? Lakers and Denver.

3DW: The best bet to make on NBA champion?

Red: The Lakers.

3DW: Why?

Red: Do you want quick answers or not? Since being embarrassed at Boston in Game Six of the Finals, the Lakers have only had one mission, get tougher and finish. Andrew Bynum will help, Kobe wants ring without Shaq and Phil (Jackson) wants to go down as the greatest NBA coach ever. Your turn to buy the beer.

3DW: Thanks for the time and the beer and good luck with golf tomorrow.

Red: Your welcome, god that is an ugly shirt, what’s that tag say –Rejected by Goodwill.

Trying to keep winning on a Thursday

Starting to put together a nice string together with 9-5-1 record the last five days. Today’s MLB System won’t officially count because it is not 80 percent or higher, nevertheless not to bad a 33-10. The Phillies fall into solid situation as the Top Trend and the Free Pick Play is now available. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – Betting on the NBA on the last day of the regular season is not very smart.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY UNDER on all teams against the total, who are batting .280 or higher in the NL, against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA >=4.50), starting a pitcher who gave up one or less earned runs in last outing. The pitcher was Anibal Sanchez of Florida and the matchup is Marlins against Atlanta. This system is 33-10, 76.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Philadelphia is 13-2 after three or more Overs.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Six LLC members like Toronto to continue mastery over Minnesota, having won 11 of 12.

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NFL Schedule Thoughts and Info

If you own a business or are in the marketing department of your work place, if you have any extra cash to play with (unlikely I understand), you might want to consider hiring somebody who has worked for the National Football League. Late Tuesday, the NFL released it schedule and by the way the NFL pages on various websites were flooded with information and people commenting, plus the way radio talk shows were hit with calls and reactions, you would have thought E’s “The Girls Next Door” were going to have an episode without clothing.

Make no mistake, it is fun and exciting to look over all the various teams and whom they will play and take a gander at all the prime time matchups. It is however imperative to keep things in perspective, since what is written and understood today will be far different later in the season.

How different you ask, let’s take a trip down memory lane, about 365 days ago. When last year’s schedule came out, Pittsburgh’s was the most difficult. In analyzing their slate, there did not appear to be one game among the 16 they would have breather. For the most part that was true, with Cincinnati and Cleveland being the only teams that were worse than expected. Yet despite the arduous slate, the Steelers almost always found a way to win and ended up winning another Super Bowl.

After pulling off an undefeated regular season, luck fell the way of New England; at least it appeared so, with the Patriots having the easiest schedule. No matter who New England was about to play, everything changed when Tom Brady went down to injury in the opening minutes. After romping thru the AFC East for years, an aging defense and back-up quarterback were nailed twice in division contests in Foxboro, which one could easily reason why Bill Belichick’s team failed to make the playoffs.

Nevertheless, it is fun to speculate what could and might happen since reality will take over starting September 10.

Because of the musical chairs nature of the NFL schedule, formulated by how a team finishes and predetermined out-of-conference opponents, any team that draws a challenging slate one year is not guaranteed to have the easiest the following and vise-versa. To prove there is a higher power, even above the NFL (really there is) the football gods and others brought balance and order to various divisions.

In 2008, the NFC South and AFC East had the easiest schedules to navigate. Five of the eight teams took advantage of their good fortune and improved their record from the previous season. The Patriots could not possibly improve on 16-0 perfection and Tampa Bay and Buffalo ended up the same record as the previous year.

This season the anvil falls. The teams with the eight hardest schedules based on last year’s results, are from the NFC South and AFC East. Miami catches the brunt of the punishment, facing teams that were 152-104, 59.4 percent. Besides the annual confrontations within the division, the Dolphins have the loaded AFC South and the NFC South. Seven of those eight teams were .500 or better and if that isn’t enough piling on, the other two tilts come in Weeks 2 and 3, a Monday night with Indianapolis and short week to make west coast trip to San Diego. Miami will face the third most difficult slate in seven years.

Next is the Carolina Panthers, who awoken last season, being more injury free and captured the NFC South. This year, Carolina takes on teams that were 151-104-1 (59.2 percent). The Panthers change the languishing AFC West for the East in non-conference play and comes out on the short end of surrendering the NFC North for the significantly tougher East. The two extra games are a December Sunday night game against Minnesota and a trip to the desert to take on the Super Bowl experienced Arizona Cardinals, who bounced them out of the postseason. Jake Delhomme or somebody better be able to pass, since the December sked doesn’t lend itself to huge running lanes, facing the Bucs, Patriots, Vikings and Giants in order.

The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers go from the most toilsome, to one of the easiest 16-game schedules, coming in at 29th. In the end, it likely won’t be this simple for Pittsburgh as they will take everybody’s best shot, particularly on the road. Ben Roethlisberger and company gladly give away the NFC East for the NFC North (who doesn’t want to play Detroit) and the AFC West as whole doesn’t look like a group ready for prime time football.

The teams with the three most halcyon appointments later this year all reside in the NFC North. Chicago, Minnesota and Green Bay are thought to be geared towards improvement, though the Lions shouldn’t be the “welcome” mat they were last season. The Bears have a substantial start having to play at Green Bay and hosting Pittsburgh. After that the annual two-pack with Detroit, along with Seattle, Cleveland, Cincinnati and St. Louis, Da Bears should come out of that mix of contests no worse than 5-1, if Jay Cutler is the final piece to Chicago’s puzzle.

Moving on, questions are raised about the importance of trying to determine what schedules mean before a single game is played. One area to dig into is how Super Bowl champions perform the next season. In breaking down the last seven Lombardi trophy winners, there schedule of opponents winning percentage turned out be pretty accurate, after the season, as compared to before the year started. The largest gap was the 2003 Patriots who had the eighth toughest schedule coming in and exited with the 22nd hardest leaving. The difference was 52.7 percent compared to 48.4 percent. For Pittsburgh backers and those seeking an edge, only two of the prior six Super Bowl champions have posted a winning spread record the year after winning the title.

2007 N.Y. Giants 12-4 12-4 ATS
2006 Indianapolis 12-4 8-8 ATS
2005 Pittsburgh 8-8 7-9 ATS
2004 New England 10-6 8-8 ATS
2003 New England 14-2 11-3-2 ATS
2002 Tampa Bay 7-9 6-9-1 ATS

Facing the supposed hardest 16 games does not guarantee failure for betting purposes. Though Miami looks like they will have a full plate, the last dozen teams that went into the year with the most strenuous slate, was 94-90-8 against the spread.

A few sportsbooks will offer props on teams to make the playoffs. If you can find one that lists any of the teams that have the hardest schedule, should you place wager for or against? It would not be wise to book a hotel in South Florida for a Dolphins postseason party, as only four of the last 12 teams that played trying agenda made the playoffs.

Teams that have had the easiest program like Chicago, have only made the playoffs once of the last eight squads trying to work through what was thought to be easier schedule. Only the 2003 Seattle Seahawks at 10-6, made the NFL playoffs. This is a sorry grouping, with 55-73 record and 59-67-2 ATS mark.

A few observations………….

The Atlanta Falcons have a three-game homestand starting in late November and chances are they will need it, after playing four of the previous five in places like Dallas, New Orleans, Carolina and New York (Giants).

It will be traveling time for the G-Men and Seattle this upcoming season. After opening at home against Washington, New York travels to the Cowboys new ball yard and also visits Tampa Bay and Kansas City in consecutive weeks. The Giants catch a bit of break, with the Bucs and Chiefs with new coaching staffs still sorting things out early in the year. The Seahawks sojourn starts the third Sunday in November, which takes then to Arizona, Minnesota and St. Louis, at least no three time zone games.

Do you ever wonder if the Dallas players sometimes wonder what it would be like to be normal? In 2009, they have six specific games that are unique telecasts, not played at 1 of 4:15 Eastern. If you’re good enough it probably doesn’t matter, yet having a constantly disruptive schedule can’t add much stability.

Miami has four prime time games; does this look and smell like Cleveland of last year all over again?

Bill Belichick and his team put the “England” in New England, when they travel to London to face Tampa Bay in late October.

After a fair schedule to open the season, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will be tested having to take on Baltimore, Chicago and Pittsburgh in weeks 13-15.

The NFL is not too impressed with Tampa Bay this season, after just missing the playoffs last and being division champs the previous year, every game starts at 1 or just after 4 Eastern.

Remember how poorly West Coast teams performed in Eastern Time Zone last year, well because of schedule changes, there is only six such games the first nine weeks of the season.

Three Hump Day Days and possible new feature

We bumped our record up to 7-4-1 the last four days, with 2-1 offering yesterday. Today’s Best System qualifies, but even I’m a little leery considering it is the last day of the NBA season and the attitudes of players really come into question. The Seattle Mariners have been playing super, can they keep it up, see the Top Trend for possible answer. The LCC consensus goes for another Free winner. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday - The D-Backs Max Scherzer can dial it up to 95+ and has very good breaking stuff. He does seem to have problems going through the lineup more than once and might be better suited for relief as set-up man and possibly closer if starting doesn’t work out. One thing I knew that you might not, Scherzer has two different colored eyes.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home favorites like Phoenix who are a good three point shooting team at 36.5 percent or higher, going against a poor three-point defense (36.5 percent or worse), who are average rebounding team (+/- 3), against a horrible rebounding team being crushed on the boards by 5.5 or more per game. This fairly complex system suggests the home favorite is not inclined to play as well against inferior opponent and is 29-6, ATS, 82.9 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Seattle is 3-13 (-18 Units) against the money line in home games off four straight wins against division rivals.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection is not strongly behind any one team, but does have five bettors on Texas and zero on the O’s.

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Last Day of Wagering on NBA Regular Season

For many basketball bettors, this is a sad day. Dating back to the end of October, they have diligently grinded away studying all aspects of the NBA, be it numbers, scheduling, players stats, angles or flipping coins, all to find winners. With only two teams having completed their regular season, a monstrosity of 14 games is available today to close the regular season.

The problem with betting today is betting side action involves too much guess work. A quick look at various websites shows virtually every game having words like - out, doubtful, questionable and may rest starters. These are hardly words that inspire confidence and help create doubt, for the NBA bettor trying to close the regular season with a little fervor.

This turns the attention to Totals action. The normal perception is the last day is only a few teams have anything realistically to play for, thus the head coach asking players to play defense is similar to asking these same players to donate their tricked rides to charity, not going to happen. Over the years, the final day of the season is fraught with 130-128 games and players padding stats to win scoring or rebounding titles and some other individual achievements.
Oddsmakers have made adjustments to compensate for bettors trying to take advantage of these situations and in one area the results are rather compelling.

In order to find value in betting totals today, looked into the results of the last four years of the regular season. Based on how the numbers fell, the categories were broken down into three groups, Under 200 total points, 200-209.5 and 210 and up.

The last group produced a pedestrian record of 6-5 Under, though last year was 4-2 Over, still no reason to rush to Nevada casino or click to wagering account.

The middle group had the exact same results at 6-5 Under, with everything relatively balanced.
Where the real value was in the very first group, which was contrarian to preconceived notions. Since 2005, totals that were 200 or less have gone Under 22 of 34 games, a very healthy 64.7 percent. A general observation could be made that teams falling into this area do play a semblance of defense on a regular basis and oddmakers believe professional pride if nothing else will take over. More subs will see heavy minutes and offensive continuity will be broken down, thus leading to lower scoring games.

Taking this into consideration, home teams that might hold value as Totals plays are Orlando, Memphis, San Antonio, Cleveland, Boston, Miami, Dallas, L.A. Clippers and Portland, if the numbers hold. Check your man for the up to the moment Totals and consider Under plays.

NHL Playoff Preview – Western Conference

Being a higher seed has meant very little since the strike season in the West. In the 12 first-round series, only five of the teams seeded one-four have advanced to conference semi-finals, which included 2006, when not one team survived the opening round. While most would agree that is unlikely to happen, little doubt an upset or two and long series’ are expected to be the norm. All lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

(1) San Jose vs (8) Anaheim

It’s not like San Jose doesn’t know the drill, another successful regular season and this year they won the President’s Trophy for having the best record, great, super, whatever, how will the Sharks do in the Stanley Cup playoffs. San Jose has been as good as any team in NHL the last five seasons and the furthest point of advancement is one conference final, not close to good enough. For San Jose, they need to play like real sharks, be coldly efficient, spot the prey and go in for the kill. That is not the mentality of this team, which is why they brought in six players who all have Cup jewelry. San Jose has dynamic power play, ranked third and goalie Evgeni Nabokov is just the sixth backstop to post back to back 40+ win seasons, though is 30-27 in the postseason.

San Jose drew a brutal opening assignment as the top seed in Anaheim. This is the first All-Cali postseason matchup in four decades and the Ducks fly into the playoffs with 13-3 record if you throw after Game 82 after clinching. Anaheim isn’t the same team that won the Cup two years ago; however the roster is still dotted with many of the same stars like Chris Pronger, Francois Beauchemin, Teemu Selanne and the Niedermayer brothers. Many of the flock from these Ducks are wily vets and they won’t fold under pressure.

The Sharks were league best 32-5-4 at the HP Pavilion, but will face hated division rival Anaheim, who buzzed to 7-0-2 close on the road. San Jose won four of six meetings and the road team won last three conflicts. Joe Thornton’s team is 9-3 at home against teams with winning road record, but the Ducks have taken last four of five away from home. This should be a wonderfully played and excruciating series out west.

Pick- San Jose (-290) in seven

(2) Detroit vs (7) Columbus

For those that can’t stand all the success Detroit has enjoyed for years, the Red Wings drawing playoff newbie Columbus is a sickening feeling. Detroit won 50 or more games for the fourth consecutive campaign and has more talent and depth than a typical party at the Playboy Mansion. Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg are exceptional playmakers and nobody is more frustrating to play than Detroit as they can play “keep away” with the puck. Each year the goaltending is brought up, yet Chris Osgood knows how to elevate his game or Ty Conklin is capable. Thou the Wings closed the season an untidy 2-6, they still are Detroit.

Columbus players trusted coach Ken Hitchcock and he helped direct them to first ever playoff appearance. The Blue Jackets are unknown to even hockey fans, but captain Rick Nash is a keeper, having netted 40 goals and still only 24 and goalie Steve Mason is just 20 and bagged 33 wins with 2.25 goals against average. Mason and his line-mates are going to have to be on high alert, facing the challenge of the league’s best power play in Detroit.

Detroit won’t have an easy time trying to keep the Stanley Cup in Hockey-town, as they have been more inconsistent this season. The weaknesses they have probably won’t manifest themselves against Columbus, who has the worst power play at conversion rate of 12.7 percent. Detroit has won eight off 11 on home ice when interested.

Pick- Detroit (-500) in five

(3) Vancouver vs (6) St. Louis

Picture having to choose between swimsuit hotties Marisa Miller (cheap ploy) or Brooklyn Decker and that gives you an indication how simmering Vancouver and St. Louis have played. The Canucks record on Jan. 31 was 22-20-8 and they were about as close to contending for the Northwest Division as Terrell Owens was to being a Buffalo Bill. Behind the best goaltender in the NHL, Roberto Luongo, Vancouver parlayed his superior play (33-13-7 and nine shutouts) and a wise move by coach Alain Vigneault to 23-7-2 finish. He took Alexandre Burrows and worked him in with the Sedin twins, which placed Ryan Kesler with Mats Sundin and Pavol Demitra. This gave the Canucks two effective scoring lines for the first time in eons.

St. Louis wasn’t exactly playing great hockey at the same time as Vancouver either, being eight games under .500, with youth showing and an inordinate amount of injuries. As the season wore on, the Blues got healthier and this youthful squad, whose top four of six scorers are under 26 years old, found a groove and finished 21-7-6 to earn sixth seed. With all the injuries, this team needed goalie who had courage and have him make “stand on his head” efforts and Chris Mason delivered. Almost three months ago to the day, Mason is 17-6-3, with five posted zeros in net.

Mason is playing as well as Luongo at the moment and the Blues have superior special teams, ranking third in penalty kills and eighth in man-advantage situations. St. Louis has a nice mix of veterans and did win once this year in Vancouver, with the teams splitting four contests. The Canucks have better players, yet their forwards have not been clutch players. With two Cinderella’s meeting, backing the one from Saint Louie.

Pick- St. Louis (+190) in six

(4) Chicago vs (5) Calgary

On Mar. 5, Calgary opened a long road trip with a pair of victories, slowing building lead in the Northwest Division. Since that time, the Flames have flamed-out with 7-11 record and fell all the way to fifth seed. Calgary was fired up to initiate trade for center Olli Jokinen from Phoenix and he and captain Jarome Iginla immediately clicked. Since all the early joy, Jokinen has gone from desert hot to Canada cold, with no goals in 13 contests. Remember when Miikka Kiprusoff was the best goalie you never heard of? Well, he’s slipped considerably the last two seasons to ordinary and the Calgary front office has done little to give Kiprusoff some rest that might restore him.

It’s good for hockey to have Original Six teams in the playoffs and Chicago returns for the first time since 2002, making it five total this season. After years of floundering, the notoriously cheap Blackhawks put money into scouting and have drafted wisely with a nice array of young talent. Chicago has youngsters like Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, who can strike fear into defenses and GM Dale Tallon brought in gritty vets like Sami Pahlsson, to add experience having championship ring from Anaheim. The Hawks blue-liners are as fast and skilled as any of the teams in the playoffs.

Chicago having the home ice edge has to play relaxed at the United Center, since Blackhawks’ fans will be in full throat. The Hawks are 13-4 against offensive teams averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game in the second half of the season and crushed Calgary in all four games, outscoring them 19-7. Calgary has lost in the first round each time since making Cup Finals in 2004. They have lost nine of last 11 as visitors and look as fragile as fifth-grader having to make first speech in class.

Pick- Chicago (-150) in seven

Three MLB plays for Tuesday

Officially taking a 1-1-1 Monday, as the Charlotte game was +4 all day until about an hour before game time, giving us 5-3-1 record the last three days. The Left Coast Connection either loves the way the Royals are playing or can’t stand Cleveland and Carl Pavano for today’s Free Play. Rays pitcher Matt Garza is involved in the Top Trend and we have out first really juicy MLB system that is 22-2. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175, allowing 5.2 or more runs a game on the season in the American League, after allowing eight runs or more. Over the last three years, this system is flat-out astonishing at 22-2, 91.6 percent. The qualifying team is the Texas Rangers.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Matt Garza of Tampa Bay is 2-9 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The LCC has nine bettors on the Kansas City Royals tonight.

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NHL Playoff Preview – Eastern Conference

The NHL Stanley Cup tournament is set, now we just need the games to begin. Before we arrive at that point starting Wednesday evening, it is time to breakdown what should happen and we will start in the Eastern Conference, where a lower seed has pulled at least one upset each of the last two years. Odds are courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

(1) Boston vs (8) Montreal

For Boston Bruins fans this is an uncomfortable matchup. Are the Bruins better, yes, they have hardnosed players and though not having a scorer in the top 11 in the league, they finished second in the NHL in scoring. Boston’s top three lines all can score, making them dangerous across the board and they do not allow opposing netminders like Montreal’s Casey Price to catch his breath often. The Bruins slumped for about a month, from the first part of February to the mid-point of March, mostly due to injury. Nearly all the injured players have returned and they closed 8-2.

Montreal can play with the Bruins, despite the disparity in seeding. The Canadiens have the physiological edge having won 24 of 31 playoff series and in 2002 and 2004 they beat Boston as the lower seed, just like this time. If the referees allow more physical play, Montreal will be at a serious disadvantage, since they are in hockey terms “soft”. After having the best power play each of the last two years, the Habs fell to 13th, while Boston’s improved to fourth.

There is no compelling argument to make for Montreal with goalie Casey registering five wins in last 18 games between the pipes, however it’s the Bruins and Canadiens and anything is possible. Boston needs to jump on Montreal at home and they were 29-12 on home ice this season with the Canadiens having lost 15 or last 20 road games.

Pick- Boston (-325) in six

(2) Washington vs (7) N.Y. Rangers

If one has a hockey preference towards end to end action and scoring or prefers tight low scoring hockey, both will be in evidence in this series. The Capitals scored 272 goals, the third highest total in the league. They are led by Alex Ovechkin, who finished second in points scored and they have a whole stable of forwards that can all bury the puck in the net, with the likes Nicklas Backstrom and Alexander Semin. Washington isn’t going to scare anybody with its defense that ranked 19th in goals surrendered. Goalie Jose Theodore is a wild card of sorts and has to prove he can be consistent, which is not his trademark.

The Rangers are as comfortable as any team in the league with a 1-0 lead, since they were sixth in defensive scoring and dowdy 28th in putting the puck in the net. Though Henrik Lundqvist didn’t have his usual glimmering numbers in net, he’s capable of turning into a brick wall at any time. The matchup of the Rangers number one penalty kill unit and the Caps second ranked power play will be key. Even with the Blueshirts having offensive issue, they still have seasoned playoff vets like Scott Gomez and Chris Drury who can light the lamp and Sean Avery could get Theodore off his game with his antics.

Washington won three of four meetings this season, but didn’t dominate as 14-11 total score shows. If the Capitals receive a better than average effort from Theodore, they will pepper the net to wear down New York. The Caps are 37-14 on home ice, but don’t have a ton of experience in Stanley Cup action. If the Rangers can take advantage of Washington being up ice and capitalize a few times, they can lock up the net against Ovechkin and company. The Rangers are 8-1 in this playoff round the last two years.

Pick- Washington (-215) in seven

(3)New Jersey vs (6) Carolina

For fans that don’t watch or follow the NHL until the playoff chase begins, seeing New Jersey and Carolina colliding is like putting on your favorite most comfortable shirt. This will be the fourth postseason matchup between these teams over the last eight years. Carolina lost two meaningless games to close the season and was on 12-3 roll prior to that. Goalie Cam Ward put the clamps down on opposing snipers, giving the Hurricanes much needed confidence. The return of forward Erik Cole gave Carolina three complete lines and Eric Staal and Ray Whitney have made the Hurricanes exceedingly dangerous.

New Jersey isn’t the same boring team that played the neutral zone trap; this team actually tries to score as opposed to just picking spots. The return of future Hall of Famer Martin Broduer was welcomed, though he finished just 4-7 and hasn’t been nearly as effective in the postseason in years. Zach Parise has become an elite point producer for the Devils; however he will be marked man, as Carolina will try to find out if New Jersey has any secondary scorers.
New Jersey first has to stop Staal, since Carolina is 22-5 when he scores. The Devils have to win home games and won 24 of last 32 contests at the Prudential Center. These teams are very similar and goaltending will be tantamount and a piece of evidence could make the difference in this series. The Hurricanes blue-liners have outscored their New Jersey counterparts by better than 2 to 1 on the season. If that continues, Carolina will advance.

Pick- Carolina (+120) in six

(4) Pittsburgh vs (5) Philadelphia

Sometimes announcers will trot out clichés like, “These two teams don’t like each other” and the fact is it just isn’t true. However, when it is true, that just leads to a heighten sense of excitement for a best of seven series. This is the Keystone State clash and these teams went toe to toe in the East Finals a year ago. Both teams are different from 2008, but how either could win is still pretty much the same. How Philadelphia handles players named Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal will help determine their fate. All three are as healthy as they have been all season and why replacement coach Dan Bylsma was able to steer the Penguins from 10th in the East to fourth with 18-3-4 finish.

Philadelphia can bring a little offense to the party as well, having six players that totaled 20 or more goals, including four like Jeff Carter who broke the 30-goal barrier. The Flyers blew last game of the season to lose home ice advantage in this series, which places added pressure on goalie Martin Biron to perform at high level, something he has struggled over stretches of games.
To say these teams are evenly matched is an understatement. They finished the regular season with 99 points each and scored the exact same number of goals on the season at 264. Neither is stellar in there own end and they are separated by a one in goals allowed. Pittsburgh prefers to dazzle opponents with its array of stars and scorers, which means Philly has to hit, to slow down Penguins. Whatever team that can win the special team’s battle with gain an edge and it is more incumbent on the Flyers to do so, since Pittsburgh is better five on five.

Pick- Pittsburgh (-155) in six

Having to pitch with purpose

It is way too early for Major League baseball teams to hit the panic button; however it is not too early to start turning season around if your team is off to a slow start. Then there is a team like the Los Angeles Angels who play on the road for the first time and the starting pitcher is someone very different from who was expected to be taking the mound a week ago.

Its opening day in Seattle (5-2, +3.9 units), who has played fantastic baseball on the road. The Mariners have a four-game winning streak after sweeping Oakland and have managed to start fast even without Ichiro Suzuki who will join the team tomorrow from the DL, after suffering a bleeding ulcer.

Seattle is abuzz because “The Kid’ is back, as Ken Griffey Jr. returns in a Seattle uniform. The Mariners will face division rival Los Angeles (3-3, +0.2) and they will be starting Shane Loux. The 29-year right-hander hasn’t taken the ball to start a game in six years and has the added pressure of taking the spot of departed Nick Adenhart. The Angels are -110 money line favorites at Bookmaker.com, with total Ov9.5. The Halos are 26-10 after five or more consecutive home games and will face Carlos Silva (0-1, 10.80 ERA), who is 6-19 after giving up two or more home runs in last outing. (Team's Record) Seattle has lost 13 of 19 to Angels at Safeco Field.

After four miserable years in New York, Carl Pavano was seeking a new lease on life and a baseball pay check and hooked up with Cleveland (1-6, -5.8). To call Pavano’s first start rough would be an understatement since his ERA is one number higher (81) than what former Cleveland Brown Kellen Winslow wore last season (80). Pavano needed only 39 pitches to allow nine runs, six hits and walk three, last Thursday in Texas in loss. The Indians lumbering start makes them 13-21 in April the last two years and the pitching staff has been battered for 7.9 runs per game. They will look to avoid a second straight loss to Kansas City (4-3, +1.6) as +140 ML underdogs, facing a Royals club that is 17-5 in home games vs. teams outscored by a half a run or more a game on the season.

Right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-1, 6.75 ERA) suffered just three losses in 29 starts in 2008 and his team needs for him to not take another defeat early in the season. The Red Sox (2-5, -5.2) haven’t done much right to begin the season, as pitchers have been slapped around for 5.3 runs per game and offense is checking in at paltry 3.4 runs per game. Last year’s AL MVP Dustin Pedroia is well below the Mendoza line, hitting .179 and power source David Ortiz has yet to lace an extra base hit. Boston was busted up by Oakland 8-2 last evening and is 20-8 in road games after a loss by four runs or more and hopes Matsuzaka can duplicate prior efforts, with the Red Sox 12-2 in road tilts in which he started. The BoSox are -150 money line favs at Oakland to even series.

Arizona was set up to capitalize on the early season, playing 18 of first 21 games at Chase Field. A 2-5 (-4.7) beginning means the Diamondbacks will need a quick turnaround and turn to Max Scherzer to spin year around. Scherzer throws heat and if he commands his slider, he can be every bit as dominant as his major league debut in which he retired all 13 batters with seven strikeouts. Arizona isn’t doing much on offense scoring 3.4 run per game and takes on St. Louis (6-2, +2.8), being 23-38 against a team with a winning record. The Cardinals have Cris Carpenter (1-0, 0.00 ERA) back, who only pitched just over 21 innings in last two years, before throwing seven in 2-1 victory over Pittsburgh last week. The Cardinals are -140 ML favorites with total Un9, which is worth watching as Carpenter and the Cards are 10-0 UNDER vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs a game on the season.

Definitely a Crazy Monday

Another 2-1 day isn’t a bad thing. I’m sorry for being so late, but massive problems involving servers and other stuff, really had me behind the eight-ball all day. Here is the best I could find.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home favorites like Portland, who should be extremely tired team, playing their 5th game in seven days and have a winning percentage of 60-75 percent, facing a team with a losing record. Over the last five years this system is 20-3 ATS, 86.9 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Tampa Bay Rays are 29-2 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) The LCC has six members on Charlotte tonight.

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Happy Easter from 3Daily Winners

Happy Easter to Everyone

Thanks for even taking the time to check in off 2-1 day, I sincerely appreciate it. Hopefully the Eastern Bunny brings a few winners to you. Good Luck and have a SUPER DAY!

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like Toronto, who are a good AL hitting team (.285 or higher BA) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA 4.50 or worse), who presently is a hot hitting team batting .333 or better over their last three games. This baseball system is 38-6, 82.9 percent and suggests playing on Cleveland, who is off to their worst start in 24 years, making one think of the original “Major League” movie with baseball’s favorite announcer Harry Doyle.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The New York Knicks are 15-3 ATS playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) The LCC likes New Orleans to get revenge on Dallas, though it should be noted all seven bettors had them at -2.5 or -3, not current figure.

Digging for NBA Winners in Easter Basket

On Sunday, a number of kids will conduct Easter egg hunts, which is fun for both children and adults. In many ways, that’s what sports bettors do each and every day, search thru things, looking behind and under every place to find the elusive winner, especially before somebody (the oddsmaker in this case) beats them to it. Thus, enjoy the day and try and hunt a couple of televised winners.

Dallas at New Orleans

It’s been quite a week for the Dallas Mavericks (48-31, 39-40), going from being threatened for last playoff spot, to climbing up the ladder faster than a Dallas oilman who just found a massive oil discovery. The Mavs all but eliminated Phoenix last Sunday, trumped Utah to tie them Wednesday and nailed New Orleans to pull even with the Hornets. Those victories were all executed at home, in order for Dallas to take sole possession of the sixth slot in the Western Conference; they will have to go into the hornets nest to take down New Orleans.

We’ve won some nice home games, but our true tests are on the road,” Nowitzki said, who is averaging 29.8 points over the last five games. “How you respond to some adversity on the road? That’s really what determines if you’re a good team.”

The Mavs have won and covered three in a row with their 100-92 win as 7.5-point favorite over the Hornets Friday. They haven’t done both to take it to four straight since Nov. 21 against Memphis. Breaking the century mark in points score has been important for Dallas, with 10-4 ATS record when doing so.

New Orleans (48-31, 34-44-1 ATS) is going to need greater contributions from players other than Chris Paul and David West to fend off Dallas. Paul had 42 points (one off career high) and West chipped in 20, with those two being the only players to break into double digits. The Hornets have lost four of five with a faulty defense, allowing 102.1 points per game compared to 94.3 PPG on the season.

The Hornets are just 2-6 ATS against teams with winning records and are on 13-3 Under tear. Dallas is 19-28 ATS on the season after a victory and has played Under the last four times against clubs with winning home records.

ABC has the coverage with starting at 1 Eastern with the home team 9-3 ATS.

Boston at Cleveland

This Eastern Conference conflict is a battle being pulled and tugged in many different directions. Boston (60-19, 41-38 ATS) needs one more win to secure the second seed in the East ahead of Orlando, but will have to do battle without one its key components. Kevin Garnett will miss his 20th game out of the last 24, with coach Doc Rivers looking at one of the next two games to have Garnett participate in. The Celtics are on 10-1 and 7-4 ATS roll and have covered last five games against teams with winning records.

Cleveland (64-15, 46-33 ATS) has a little work to do of their own. The Cavaliers have already wrapped up the East and with two wins or a Lakers loss, will own homecourt advantage throughout the postseason.

The Cavs are also trying to get into the record books. This season they are 38-1 (25-14 ATS) at Quicken Loans Arena and if they win last two home games, they tie the record for most home wins at 40, held by the 1985-86 Boston Celtics. Cleveland is 10-2 ATS at home vs. teams with a winning road record.

Part two of the Easter doubleheader will begin at 3:30 Eastern with Boston 0-4 SU and ATS at LeBron’s place.

Check with Bookmaker.com for the side and total numbers on these matchups and Happy Easter from 3Daily Winners.