First Big Saturday of College Basketball Betting

We move into Saturday off a 2-1 day, as Detroit was a three-pointer away from giving us a perfect day. The focus today will be college basketball on its first big Saturday and we have a Top System that rings up winners 80.6 percent of the time. Another perfect Trend is in place, having won a few in a row. Eric of the Left Coast Connection goes for his third straight winner. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who were a good team from last season like Ohio State, shooting 45 percent or higher, with a defense permitting 42 percent or less shots made this season, with just two starters returning from last year. The logic here is if a team is favored in this price range with not many returning players, they must be talented enough to cover the spread. This system is 25-6 ATS, 80.6 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Oregon State is 0-9 as a home underdog or pick over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Eric has been very strong in basketball and is taking UCLA to crush DePaul.

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Early Football Line Moves

The Early Line Moves segment of college football for the regular season has ended and it was quite a year. Last week in college football these plays were 1-2 on the sides and fabulous 5-0 in college totals. This makes season record 66-41-1, 61.6 percent on sides and 48-36, 57.1 percent on Totals in CFB. We will start for the bowl season, but my experience has been this is harder to determine because of the timing aspect. I talked to sharps that jump on numbers the day they are posted, however the vast majority wait about a week before the game and try to buy the market at what price they want. This makes the marketplace for these games more convoluted, when mixed in with others and the results vary from year to year.

In the NFL, there were no Sides plays, leaving the record at 13-12, 52 percent. On the Totals, a sparkling 3-1 record, making the updated figure 24-18-1, 57.1 percent. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.

NFL Sides
Seattle -3 to -1 (Has gone back up since)
Baltimore Pick to -2
New England -8 to -6.5

NFL Totals
SF/ Miami 43 to 41.5
Buff/NYJ 43 to 41.5
SD/KC 48 to 46

Bowl Game Sides
TCU Pick to -2.5

Bowl Game Totals
TCU/Boise 48 to 46

That is all for the first seven bowl games.

College Hoops Wagering Options + Bonus

For the first time since last season, college basketball fans and bettors get to have their day, with very little competition on a Saturday other than Christmas shoppers being out and about. Basketball bettors will be walking past televisions to catch the occasional score; otherwise a very solid day of basketball action is on tap. Last year’s NCAA finalist’s Memphis and Kansas can both be seen, being very different squads from a last year’s overtime thriller. Indiana and Kentucky used to be a big game, not this season. Depending where you live, finding time to see Oklahoma’s talented Blake Griffin is a wise decision. You can visit a Free StatFox FoxSheet for the battle of the Queen City with Xavier and Cincinnati in the Crosstown Shootout. Look to Bookmaker.com to review the latest odds.

Memphis at Georgetown 2:00ET, CBS

Memphis (5-1, 4-2 ATS) looks to continue to build its pre-conference resume taking on Georgetown. The Tigers have missed Derrick Rose at the point (who wouldn’t) and are trying to work in freshman Wesley Witherspoon, who was handed the keys to the Tigers offense. Coach John Calipari tried to use Antonio Anderson; however he’s better suited as off-the-ball wing that can rebound and play reckless defense. It is evident at present this is not a good shooting team, behind 17-feet. These Tigers play best when running, shooting and crashing the boards. Memphis had final exams and is 8-2 ATS when playing with seven or more days rest.

Georgetown (6-1, 2-2 ATS) may lack the veteran leadership of last season, but something could be cookin’ in Hoya country with talented youngsters. Freshmen Greg Monroe and Jason Clark, as well as sophomore Chris Wright have contributed nicely with holdovers Jessie Sapp and DaJuan Summers. Coach John Thompson III wants this game as a great tune-up before the Big East wars start. Thompson knows what he will receive from Sapp and has to keep prodding Summers to be more diversified, by grabbing rebounds and not settling for jump shots. The Hoyas need to control tempo at a slower pace, since they are 5-17 ATS in home games when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game.

Think of this as an excellent measuring stick for both programs to determine where they are and where they are headed with conference play around the corner.

To review the rest of the games click here.

Only 13 Wagering Days before Christmas

Sometimes you just have to trust things and I was incorrect about yesterday’s system that led to 2-0 day here at 3Daily Winners. I was pleased it won but also pleased I passed on the game since I would have been displeased to have lost. We come back today with another sound System which is 80.4 percent and grinded out three winners this season. We uncovered another perfect Trend, this time in the NBA. Good Luck.

A thought for today, with 34 bowl games and countless sponsors, why hasn’t Campbell’s and Progresso stepped into the fray, it seems so natural. What guys don’t eat soup?

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home teams like the Detroit Pistons off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days rest. These rested fellows are 45-11 ATS, 80.4 percent since 2004 and perfect 3-0 this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Minnesota Timberwolves are 0-12 ATS in home games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Eric of the Left Coast Connection has Boston -7 as his top play in the NBA.

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It Pays to Know NBA Betting and Your State Capitals

I was on a radio station a couple of weeks ago to talk about betting on the National Basketball Association. The host of the show asked me a question which I am sure he wanted to receive a highly intelligent, insightful answer that would be enlightening to his listeners. We then could have an extended discussion going into great detail that would be quite informative.

The radio host asked me, “What is the secret to making money betting the NBA”? Perhaps he was looking for me to talk about predicting team wins using the bell curve method or employing individual player ratings to determine the outcome of key match-ups and how they will affect a game. Or maybe he was looking for a humorous response such as “have Tim Donaghy introduce you to a few of his referee friends”.

Considering his expectations, it was quite deflating to him when I answered, “just pick winners”. There was a pause on the other end as his brain was scrambling for ways he was going to fill twelve minutes of air time until the next commercial break. I assume he was determining whether I was being a smart aleck or if I was just a moron.

I wasn’t trying to be a jerk nor was I giving him a flippant answer. Actually, my response carries a lot of validity. It would have been more accurate if I worded it “bet on winning teams”, but I guess working a couple of summers in a theme park while going to school left me with a habit of giving offhand and glib remarks to thoughtless questions posed by tourists and now, obviously, radio hosts.

The radio interview continued with another dead spot or two. I did finally impress the radio guy when I told him I knew the capitals of all fifty states. He quickly quizzed me asking what was Vermont’s state capital? Not only did I correctly answer Montpelier, but I added the fun fact that with a population of under 9,000 people, it is the smallest capital city in the country. The interview ended with me trying to convince him that the state capital of West Virginia, Charleston, was named after a lively popular dance in the 1920’s.

Back to the initial point though…Let’s take a look at whether betting on winning teams has been profitable in the NBA. Is there a connection between teams winning straight-up and covering the point spread? Do teams that have a higher winning percentage cover the point spread more than teams that lose a fair amount of their games?

One thing about the NBA, as well as the NFL, you normally see many teams closer to .500 in ATS and in Over/Under stats than you do compared to their amateur cohorts. With much smaller leagues, 30 or 32 teams in pro hoops and pro football, and a much smaller degree of differences and variances in style of play, you get more standardization of results and margins.

In college sports you have a wide diversity in talent as well as styles. Depth on college teams is much thinner, in most cases, than it is at the professional level. There is not nearly the drop-off in talent between the first-string and the reserves on an NBA team as there is in, say, the Missouri Valley Conference. Injuries can decimate teams at the amateur level. Look at a team like the Houston Rockets. Last year they frequently played without one or even both of their stars, Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, due to injury. Houston still managed the sixth best record in the NBA winning 55 games in the regular season.

Last season in the NBA showed more of a gap between the top ten teams and the bottom ten squads. Each of the past three years the best team won right around 80% of their games straight up. Boston had the best record last year, Dallas in 2006-07, and before that it was Detroit. In the 2005-06 and 2006-07 campaigns, the tenth best record in the NBA regular season was 45-37, 54.9%. Last year Dallas had the tenth best winning percentage with a record of 51-31, 62.2%.

Looking for a correlation between straight-up winning and beating the number, last season the bottom ten teams in straight-up winning percentage contained seven of the ten worst point-spread covering teams. Not one team that finished in the top third in ATS% was in the bottom third in straight-up winning percentage.

The bottom ten teams combined regular season winning percentage was 250-570, 30.49%. Betting on those losing teams last season to win against the spread saw you only winning 44.06% of your wagers, 356-452.

Seven of the top ten teams who covered the point spread last year were also in the ten best overall winning teams. Only one team who was in the bottom third of the league in ATS%, Dallas, had the one of the top ten SU records.

The SU mark of the 2007-08 top ten teams was 561-269, 68.41%. Faithfully betting on these teams gave you a winning ATS slate of 56.07%. So last year, betting on the top ten teams with the best SU record was a very profitable venture.

One thing that you do have to remember is you have bad teams playing other bad teams as well as the top ten teams going against each other. Since there is a winner and a loser in every game, records will be padded on both sides at a .500 rate when a similar caliber team plays each other. I wanted to see if our results from last season, “just betting winners”, was being replicated this season. The quick answer was yes as six of the bottom ten teams against the spread are also in the bottom third of the straight-up winning percentage. Bad teams can cover as evidenced by the worst team in the league, Oklahoma City, 2-19 SU, being in the top ten in covering the number. Charlotte, one of the bottom SU teams, is also in the top ten in ATS records. The problem is these teams are few and far between.

On the contrary, of the ten best SU teams this season, six of those are also in the top ten for winning against the spread. Not one of the bad teams is in the top ten in covering the number.
The gap last year between very good and bad teams was assisted by having a couple of very bad teams. Two and three seasons ago, no team had below a 25% winning percentage. Last year two teams, Oklahoma City (Seattle) and Miami, finished below that mark winning 20 and 15 games respectively. This season is showing even a larger gap with amazingly seven teams with a 25% or lower winning percentage straight up.

In fact, the bottom ten teams right now are winning straight-up at a rate of 25.38%, 50-147, more than five percentage points below last years ten cellar dwellers. They are covering the point spread at a slightly worse pace than last year, 43.88%.

The top third winning teams this year have an impressive combined mark of 142-53, 72.82% SU. They are covering the oddsmaker’s line even better than last year, 57.51%, 111-82. A record which can’t stay this high is Cleveland’s 16-4, 80% ATS tally.

There are betting trends that come and go in sports wagering. A few years ago betting on favorites in the NFL was at an all-time best rate. This year NFL double-digit underdogs are money in the bank. Last year and this season have seen a very profitable NBA trend to just bet on the best ten teams as gauged by their straight-up record and to bet against the worst ten teams. If handicapping NBA games continues to be this easy, I will have a lot of free time on my hands. Maybe even enough time to visit Montpelier, VT, and see that impressive gold dome on the capital building.

Free lancewriter Jim Kruger is a sharp basketball handicapper and state capital expert, who has no idea what he had for lunch.

Betting Info for Dec.11

Good to have 2-1 day, though that 3-0 has been elusive. Anyways, the Top Trend was winner and looks at one of the more obscure teams in college basketball betting and they are in perfect 10-0 situation. I have to say, I can only think of one time since September I questioned if the Best System would win, today’s another. It’s hard to argue with 22-3 ATS, I hope I’m wrong. No Free Play from Eric today, who does offer NBA opinion, however have numbers on tonight’s NFL contest. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road teams like the Bobcats, who are a poor offensive team (88-92 PPG) against a poor defensive team like Dallas (98-102 PPG), after allowing 105 points or more. The system has delivered the spread winner 22 of 25 times.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Weber State is 10-0 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last three seasons.

Free Selection -3) Eric of the Left Coast Connection gave us a solid winner, but doesn’t like anything that much and said he made a small wager on the Washington Wizards. The final tabulation on tonight’s NFL game from the LLC is Chicago-8 and New Orleans-6, with not one person playing the Total.

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Sports Wagering Knowledge for Wednesday

We settled for 2-2 Tuesday and look for bigger things on Hump Day. The Cleveland Cavaliers are featured in our Top Trend and did you know they have not only won and covered nine in a row, they have covered the spread by astonishing 9.3 points per game. WOW! The newest member of the LCC joins the fray and shares his Top Play. The Best System we could find in “only” 88.7 percent in college hoops. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON any team cold shooting team like Tulsa, after three straight games making 40% or less of their shots against opponent after two straight games - allowing a shooting percentage of 37% or less, like Missouri State has. Does 14-2 ATS, 87.5 percent work for you too?

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Cleveland Cavaliers are 15-2 ATS as a favorite this season, winning by better than 17 points a game.

Free Basketball Selection -3) One of the newest members of the Left Coast Connection is Eric, who only bets basketball and plays poker. He likes the value of Atlanta against San Antonio off double overtime win, being an older club.

Betting College Hoops Totals Successfully

There is more interest in college totals than there ever has been in the past. Many handicappers are finding it lucrative to bet whether a game will go Over or Under the lined total. As every season goes by, more and more sportsbooks are putting up totals on EVERY lined college basketball game. The liquidity in this market is thin compared to side bets and you can have movements of several points. Also, to combat sports bettors playing college totals, many books have a smaller limit on them and post their totals numbers much later in the day.

In handicapping college hoops totals, you need to determine which team is going to control the tempo. Normally, the home team will be the team who is most able to set a style of play. However, if the visitor is significantly superior, they can be the ones who dictate the overall tempo, especially if they jump out to a lead. Take the point spread into consideration. This is basically the linesmaker’s opinion of the relative strength of each team. How has a team/coach performed when they are double-digit favorites?

While some handicappers first look at how many points a team scores and allows on a per game average, I prefer examining the pace of the two teams involved. The pace is the calculated number of possessions a team has in a game on average. It does not mean the number of shots a team takes in a game. When you lose the ball due to a turnover, consider that a possession. Missing a shot and then getting an offensive rebound is another possession. Generally speaking, it is how fast a team gets up and down the floor coupled with how fast they shoot the ball.

When betting totals, you have to be willing to play the Under OR the Over. Just like in playing favorites or dogs, you are missing out on betting opportunities if you only consider betting one way or the other. Some people don’t even realize they are showing great favoritism to betting one way or the other. A friend of mine refuses to bet Unders. He is terrified of a game going into overtime and causing him to lose his bet with the added time and points being scored. When one accepts the fact that so small of percentage of games ever go into overtime, you realize it is a stupid fear to have.

Knowing the tendencies of a coach is very important. Some coaches will let the air out of the ball when they get a lead of even a small significance. They might be more prone to do this when their team is on the road at a hostile environment in a conference game.

Besides coaches, teams can have different personalities and levels of performance, especially depending upon whether they are playing at home or on the road. A more cautious, steady method of play can work its way into a team that is on the road. This habit can increase as the season proceeds, especially if they have had a bad experience or two in games that resulted in tough, close losses. All of a sudden, players become hesitant to take shots in close or big games.

The visiting team is in an arena they don’t see very often, once a year perhaps if it is a conference game. In a non-conference game, it might be the first time ever playing in a venue. Players’ familiarity to the depth behind the basket, the lines of vision inside the arena, what the crowd is like, all can put a lid on the basket.

I don’t like to bet Overs when a team relies heavily on one player to score a lot of points in games. What if that player has an off night or has a defensive stopper put on him that is extremely effective? You then have to count on other players to perform a duty, score points, they aren’t accustomed to or comfortable in doing.

When you have a team with one or two players who score a large proportion of a team’s points, look at how efficient the scorers are, how many possessions in a game do they take? A player with a 22 points per game scoring average is fine, but if he is taking 40% of a team’s possessions to score those again you can see an Under happening, as well as a loss, if that player is not performing adequately.

Look at the range of total that a team normally plays at. If they are usually lined in the mid 130’s and then have to play a much faster team and now have a lined total in the upper 140’s or even 150’s, how will team respond? Do they have the athletes and the depth to play at a fast pace? Many times slower paced teams become even slower when facing a superior team.

It pays to know a team’s offense and its overall efficiency. Teams are harder to defend if they have an outside and inside scoring presence. They are less likely to have a scoring drought. You have to be cognizant that if teams that like to fast break frequently are playing a very good rebounding team, their opportunities to run the break could be limited. To make up for a lack of rebounding, many teams will send four or even five players to the defensive glass.

If a team relies heavily on the three-point shot, how good is their opponent at guarding beyond the arc? If a team is a poor outside shooting team, does the opposing team play a good zone defense challenging the foe to shoot from outside? Teams with below average guard play and ball handling skills can be limited offensively to good pressure teams like Tennessee.

A team’s offensive free throw rate, how many free throws are made to field goals attempted, can be a valuable number to know, especially when it is a high number such as Xavier’s or Marquette’s this year. If they are playing a team that fouls frequently, one with a high defensive free throw rate, an opponent’s free throw attempts divided by their number of field goal attempts, this factor can be even more important. Southern Illinois and Central Michigan are both fouling a high-percentage of the time this year. That can be magnified more if the team that gets to the line a lot is playing at home versus the team that fouls frequently. Yes, there definitely can be “home cooking” when it comes to a ref blowing his whistle.

Once conference play begins, games can be much more intense. Familiarity in an opponent’s style, players, and even plays can make it more difficult for teams to score. Also, you can’t rely on a team’s points per game average that they have achieved in non-conference action as many of those games were played against smaller schools with lesser athletes. Offensive and defensive game averages can be out of whack significantly compared to a team’s conference averages. Look at previous year’s conference-only statistics to get a better idea of how teams perform in league play.

To increase your abilities to successfully handicap college basketball totals, you should watch a lot of games and read a lot of game recaps. Since there is such an extreme multitude of teams, you need to either focus on a few conferences or teams or keep very good notes and stats. I prefer to use an electronic notebook where I can continue putting notes in from year to year. If there is a coaching change, I have valuable information on how the coach performed at a previous school or the tendencies of the coach he worked for.

The basic creed for winning betting college hoops totals is to know thy teams.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority is noted basketball expert.

Tuesday's Best + Updated Monitored Results

Another impressive 2-1 day at 3Daily Winners. Everyone talks about wanting to follow the hottest handicapper or getting the best information. Honestly haven’t had time to sit down and track our system, trend and free picks of late, but if you are regular, you already know what kind of money you are making just following this simple material. In addition, email followers are also doing quite well signing for my personal picks, which are emailed to those who sign up. Plus our monitored plays speak for themselves.

Free Sports Monitor #1 NFL
Free Sports Monitor #4 CBB and NBA
Free Sports Monitor #3 Last 30 days
The Sports Eye #1 NFL
The Sports Eye # 5 CFB
The Sports Eye #2 NBA and CBB
Cappers Watchdog #6 or higher in every sport

Myself and the rest of those involved understand everything can change quickly, but the fact remains it hasn’t, thus this is where you should be to pick up winning information, everyday.

Today we have a great angle to follow that is has won 14 of 15 times following this ACC club. Today’s Best System has won 80 percent of the time since 1996 and should be looked over. Paul Buck is on a nice streak of 67 percent the last week and has his top college basketball play. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST any team off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog against opponent off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite. This 28-7 ATS system yields two plays against teams, Atlanta and Washington in the NBA. A word of caution on the Hawks however, with no T-Mac for Houston.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Virginia Tech is 1-14 ATS at road when the line is +3 to -3 the last 11 years.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Paul Buck had Carolina as his big play yesterday and is riding Villanova as his Best Bet in college hoops tonight.

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Looking in Rearview Mirror in the NFL

For those that watched that the Dallas and Pittsburgh contest, with nearly the intensity as same Samuel Louis Charles of North Miami Beach, Fla., (he won a cool million on ESPN's Streak For The Cash game with Steelers triumph) you had to be struck by several key factors. This whole Dallas meltdown deal is taking on a life of its own. For those not familiar, the Cowboys are 18-37 in their last 55 December/January games, with an even worse 15-39-1 ATS record. For Dallas backers and I know there is a whole bunch of you, this makes them among the worst teams in all of football to end and begin different years.

Everybody thought the three wins after the bye had Dallas rolling. Against Pittsburgh, their defense was phenomenal, never letting Ben Roethlisberger breath and shutting down the Steelers passing game almost completely for 53 minutes. But for all the supposed All-Pro players on the Cowboys roster, in the clutch, they make the cowardly lion from the Wizard of Oz seem brave at the end of games. Though Wade Phillips team was the equal, if not the better team, once again, the Boys couldn’t put the cork in the bottle at crunch time and Tony Romo look like the undrafted free agent he is when the chips are all on the table.

Though I’m unbelievably impressed with the Steelers this season, since I didn’t see any way around their brutal schedule, I’m squeamish about Mike Tomlin in the big game. On the fourth and one play early in the fourth quarter when Pittsburgh was stopped on downs, why wouldn’t you kick the field goal to make it a one score game at 13-6. I’m sure his argument would be he has faith in his defense to get the ball right back, great point. But wouldn’t the same argument hold be true if you were down just one score instead of two? Sometimes his strength as a coach is also his weakness and he has done similar things with mixed results as head coach.

Dallas will host the New York Giants, who were finally bitten by the Plaxico Burress bug and played like a team that had been through emotional ringer, losing at home to Philadelphia 20-14 as a touchdown favorite. Like a Trojan computer virus, if contained immediately, the damage can be minimal, however once other players on the team started to come into question for the incident, this story grew and had a lingering affect. It was also noted Domenik Hixon didn’t look nearly as comfortable in role as key receiver as opposed to matching up against weaker DB’s as the third or fourth option. The Eagles Brian Dawkins offered this insight.

Listen," Dawkins said, "I understand that you want to say the correct thing like 'We'll plug in this guy and we'll move on.' And that's all well and good. But when you have the type of player that Plax is and the attention you have to pay to him ... and you have to pay attention to him. You can't allow a corner to play one-on-one with Plax the whole game.

The Giants can certainly overcome this with three weeks left in the season, but the invincible tag lost several layers over the weekend as a play on team.

The Green Bay Packers are done, finished and kaput. Oh sure, in the off-season Packer apologists will point to five losses by four points or less or whatever the final tally is. Yet the fact remains, similar to Dallas, when called upon at the end of the game, the Green and Gold are just green with envy suffering another defeat.

Consider the Green Bay defense allowed 549 yards of offense to Houston at Lambeau Field. The Texans are essentially a dome or warm weather team and they played on the road in temperatures that never saw double digits and moved the ball like a 7 on 7 practice in August. Their is no doubt the Packers defensive backfield has been hamstrung by injuries at the safety position, but do you really take a player like CB Charles Woodson, who was having a Pro Bowl season and move him to safety?

Aaron Rodgers has mostly stayed above the disappointing season, but he was an important reason why they lost to Houston. The Packers were miserable 1 for 10 on third down conversions in the game and on six occasions they ran their favorite slant route play and never converted one. Twice, the receivers ran sloppy routes and didn’t shield defensive players properly. However, on all six passes Rodgers threw, none of the passes were in the tight window necessary to force completions. Instead of the usual December rush were accustomed to seeing by the Pack, they look to be going thru the motions and have to be thought of as play against team on the road in Jacksonville and in Chicago the next two weeks.

In the National Football League, nothing is a given, with the possible exception of blocking in the back on kicks twice or more a game. With the disillusionment Dallas and Green Bay have created, the wonderment the Miami Dolphins has spawned is about as confounding as any story this season. Miami, of course won just one game last season, covering the spread only five times. With an overturned roster, new attitude, improved quarterback play and better game plans, the Dolphins are tied for first place in the AFC East with the Jets and New England. Miami has two winnable contests with San Francisco and Kansas City next, in which they will be favored in both before heading for New Jersey to face the Jets. Think Chad Pennington will have his team ready if they are still tied for first in this matchup?

Quick Hits –This past week, teams that had scored or allowed 40 or more points the previous week were 4-0 ATS. On the season, nothing remarkable, with teams having scored 40+ points 9-8 ATS and those allowing the same number 7-7 ATS. Early in the year, we heard quite a bit about clubs from Pacific Time zone teams traveling East and losing. This last Sunday, three teams traveling west, two or more time zones away failed to cover. Annually, their are not a large number of these games, but teams that force five or more turnovers are 6-3 ATS this season, after producing 11-28-1 spread record the two previous years. Pittsburgh is a live play this week. Several weeks ago it was noted how well teams in the bottom five of Yards Per Point were doing at 16-6 ATS, after being 60 percent spread losers the last several years. As the season as worn on, they are coming back to normal with 7-13-1 ATS record the last five weeks.

Not Just Another Monday

A good back to basics 2-1 day at 3Daily Winners. Today’s Best System takes a good look at what revenge can mean when quality teams meet head on. Today’s Top Trend follows the exploits of the Clippers off an upset (isn’t every Clips win an upset really?). Our hockey guru from the Left Coast Connection has a Free Play. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON any team revenging a same season loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). This means Carolina is the play with 15-2 ATS record, 88.2 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The L.A. Clippers are 3-14 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.

Free Hockey Selection -3) Normally if a person hits a winner here, they come back the next day. Paul Buck sells his selections in the Featured Picks and Wagering Options part of this blog and has passed because he has big play tonight. The Free Play is from our NHL expert who is playing Nashville on the money line.

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Carolina Favored with Home Field Advantage

For this Monday Night, ESPN has their best game involving two exceptional teams from the NFC South. Carolina is the home team in this battle, facing Tampa Bay for sole possession of first place in the division. Based on how the season is playing out in NFL’s best and most competitive division, the Panthers could have a distinct edge. The four teams in this division are 22-2, 17-6-1 against the spread in 2008. (Not counting Saints trip to England as home game)

Tampa Bay can be coldly efficient, if not explosive, and won their fourth straight game, in 23-20 non-cover against New Orleans last week. Quarterback Jeff Garcia completed just 9 of 23 passes for 119 yards, and Tampa Bay gained only 254 yards of total offense, but the defense picked off three passes and held the Saints to 44 yards rushing on 18 carries. Traveling to Charlotte, they are in the middle of playing three NFC South contests.

The modus operandi for Jon Gruden is simple: control the clock, make one or two big plays and use a bone-crunching defense to wear down opponents. Running back Earnest Graham was recently lost for the year with an ankle injury, but it coincided with the return of Carnell Williams, out for 15 months (knee). The “Cadillac” has 16 carries in two games and scored his first touchdown since September 2007 in the win over New Orleans. Warrick Dunn has assumed the lead role, but the 12-year veteran isn’t the featured back of season’s past. He did, however, net his only 100-yard game of the year in the previous meeting with Carolina, a 27-3 win for Tampa Bay on Oct. 12. The Buccaneers are 29-2 ATS when they win straight up away in division games.

Carolina had its back against the wall in Green Bay last week, but a 54-yard completion from Jake Delhomme to Steve Smith to the Packers 1-yard line set up the winning touchdown with 1:30 to play in a 35-31 win.

DeAngelo Williams scored a career-high four touchdowns and gets a chance to avenge his worst game of the season, an 11-carry, 27-yard effort at Tampa Bay. He’s all but wrestled the position away from rookie Jonathan Stewart, who’s nursing a heel injury and was caught from behind at the Green Bay 3-yard line on a 43-yard run last week. Williams scored all four his touchdowns from the 1-yard line against the Packers. The Panthers are 17-6 ATS in home games after being out-gained by opposition by 100 or more total yards in last game.

Delhomme was picked off three times in the earlier 27-3 loss to the Bucs but has had their number in previous meetings, throwing for 948 yards and five touchdowns in his last four starts in the series. The quarterback has done his best work at home, leading the Panthers to a perfect 6-0 (3-2-1 ATS) mark while throwing nine of his 12 touchdown passes but just three of his nine interceptions.

Smith continued his tear over the last six weeks, topping the 100-yard mark for the fifth time in seven games and started the run with 112 yards at Tampa Bay.

Bookmaker.com has Carolina as three-point favorite, with a total of 38. In one of the best angles you will find this season, the Panthers 17-0 UNDER at home against division foes.

Tampa Bay covers if they can get off to a better start. The Bucs have been tempting fate with 6-1 record when the other team scores first. True, it speaks to resolve and an excellent defense; however in big games on the road, they could be caught. Tampa Bay is average in third down conversions and could keep the Panthers on the field by converting at a higher rate. Carolina has allowed over 138 yards rushing per game the last month, Gruden assuredly will ride his “Cadillac”, trying to make the underdog 10-4 ATS.

Carolina covers if the defense steps up. The Cats “D” has surrendered 98 points the last three weeks, totally unacceptable for a team with real postseason aspirations. Coach John Fox defenders need to keep Garcia in a bubble, not letting his escape to beat them. At least the Panthers are winning the turnover battle and are 8-0 ATS after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. On offense, be imaginative like they were against Green Bay and be the aggressor.

This week’s Monday Night system is to play on any division team that won by three or less points last week. As mentioned earlier, Tampa Bay won 23-20 last Sunday, making them the qualifying team for a system that is 17-5 ATS, 77.2 percent.

NFL Sunday Best from 3Daily Winners

Sorry to be so late with this today, but hosted a Christmas party and stayed up just a LITTLE later than expected and didn’t sleep fast enough. Have a great total system in the NFL that is 22-3 today. Have a sweet trend that has never lost and Paul Buck from the Left Coast Connection is having a great season and is releasing his Best Play for Free. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY OVER on home teams against the total who are a poor rushing team (70-95 YPG) against an average rushing defense (95-125 TPG) after 8 or more games, after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. The teams that fit the criteria New Orleans and Atlanta and this system is 22-3, 88 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) The Detroit Lions are 0-10 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last three seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) Paul Buck has hit over 60 percent in the NFL and is on New Orleans as his Best bet today.

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