Free Baseball Picks at 3DW

Mixed back Friday night with 2-1-1 record, not being far off from 4-0 or 1-3. Winning is winning, thus we’ll take it. An excellent system is ready to fire, with a 16-3 record, in the Big Apple today. Our top Trends are staying warmer than a Palm Springs summer day, with another on tap. An extremely rare consensus play, with a large core of LCC members all on one side. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like Colorado, when the money line is +125 to -125, with a bad bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities against opponent with a starting pitcher like Pedro Martinez, whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (NL). This system is outstanding 16-3, 84.2 percent the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Boston is 16-2 this season when a favorite of -150 to -200.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has 13 members with no dissenters backing the Angels in MLB action tonight.

Baseball Series Betting – L.A. Angels at Oakland

The Oakland Athletics might be the most peculiar team in all of major league baseball. Once again in the midst of a division chase, they end up trading one of the most prominent commodities, Rich Harden (plus others) to the Chicago Cubs and receive a bevy of mid-to-above average players. Oakland has come to epitomize the “small” in small market teams, continually developing young talent and when their time is about to come for a larger contract based on success, off they go in repetitive cycle, traded for younger players to start the process all over again. While the A’s organization is to be congratulated for having an distinct eye for the types of “moneyball’ players they prefer, in the end, they are only slightly closer to winning a champion then teams that are poorly run and have swings of brilliances and extreme failure over periods of time.

You would believe every Oakland fan would hate the Angels, with a passion. No shortage of cash to attract free agents, a deep farm system to deliver players on continual basis and ownership who has worked hard to attract fans. If that doesn’t make you jealous, nothing would. The Angels of Anaheim despite leading the AL West by five games over the A’s and having the second best record in the American League, have a leaky bullpen beyond Francisco Rodriguez. They are 20th in baseball in this category and will go stretches of games, especially on the road were they give up more hits than a 20-car pile on I-5.

This week, L.A. had problems with two Texas pitchers they have never seen, which could work to Oakland’s advantage. Sean Gallagher (3-4, 4.44, 1.353 WHIP), newly acquired from the Cubs, will make his first American League start. Gallagher possess an average fastball and slightly above average curve, but has shown the ability to work both sides of the plate. His thicker body type (not fat) suggests he could be an innings-eater. He’s backed up by fresh teammates who are 28-14 against the money line after two or more consecutive home games this season. L.A. will send John Garland (8-5, 3.76, 1.381 WHIP) to the mound in the opener contest. The Angels staff saw a flaw in Garland’s delivery when he was getting hammered in April and together they fixed it. Since then Garland has lowered his ERA by more than two full runs in the last 10 weeks. Garland is off a complete game, allowing one run against Toronto, unfortunately he is 3-11 after giving up one or less earned runs in last outing over the last two seasons. (Team's Record) This contest opened as a “Pick” at most Las Vegas wagering outlets, however the money has been mostly on the A’s who are now a -113 money line favorite. This might open the door for the Halos who are 21-8 after a road win and the teams Garland has pitched for are 13-4 as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last two years. The former White Sox hurler is only 4-10 lifetime against Oakland.

Game 1 Edge: A’s

On Saturday night, Los Angeles will send All-Star Ervin Santana (10-3, 3.53, 1.128) to toe the rubber. Santana is still only 25-years old and was known prior to this season as having the greatest home/road splits in the big leagues. Through continued hard work and developing mental toughness, he is 7-1 with 3.77 ERA on the road. Santana’s more dogged approach has contributed to the Halos sensational road record (29-17) and coming into the series, they are 39-31 under the lights. Lefty Dana Eveland (7-5, 3.50, 1.380) is manager Bob Geren’s choice in middle encounter. Eveland will have his work cut out for him facing Pedro Guerrero and other right-handed sticks, with the Angels 16-6 this season facing port-siders. The A’s will try to get into manager Mike Scioscia’s bullpen, since they are 48-27 at McAfee Coliseum vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75 percent or more of their save opportunities since 2006.

Game 2 Edge: Angels

By the time the series finale starts, another Angels All-Star hurler, Joe Saunders (12-5, 3.07, 1.130) and his wife should be parents for the first time. Saunders has been a bit more unstable, with 3-3 record since June 9, with his control the obvious issue. When the lefty is right, he works quickly, throws strikes and mows down hitters. When Saunders is off a little, he fidgets more on the mound and tries to be too fine, usually missing high and outside. He will go up against Justin Duchscherer (10-5, 1.78, 0.861), who will be the A’s lone representative in New York for the All-Star festivities. Duchscherer, if anything is underrated. His impeccable command has seen him walk more than two batters once in 15 starts. His ERA speaks for itself and in his five losses, the Athletics generated a measly five total runs. Both teams have flourished under the light of day with Oakland 18-12 and L.A. 16-6.

Game 3 Edge: Under

This underappreciated rivalry is one of the best in the major leagues. The Angels hold the upper-hand with 6-4 record this season and have won 13 of 22 in the city by the bay, including taking two of three earlier this campaign. Every reason to believe this will be hotly contested series, with the A’s winning a pair of close conflicts.

Sportsbooks series odds: Angels -110, Athletics -110

3Daily Winners Pick: A’s

Free Baseball Picks at 3DW

The Top Trend and Free Pick were both easy winners on Thursday. Tonight’s top Trend takes us to the City of Brotherly Love, an 86.6 percent winner and Kendall from the LCC, has 2 Free plays. Our System play is on the totals side and wins 81.6 percent of the time. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY UNDER on home teams like Boston, where the total is 10 or higher, after a game where they had 17 or more hits, with starting pitcher like Clay Buchholz who has a WHIP 2.000 or higher over his last three starts. This fairly rare system is 31-7, 81.6 percent the last 11 years and is making debut in 2008.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Philadelphia and Kyle Kendrick are 13-2 this season in night games.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection has nailed 11 of last 13 plays in all sports and gave out Free Winner yesterday. Tonight he’s playing Cleveland and Milwaukee to continue to winning ways.

Brewers and Cubs in Arms War

Two franchises long noted for frugality, bad decision-making from the front offices and just plain losing, are setting up to go head-to-head, in by all appearances should be quite a race the rest of the season. The Milwaukee Brewers last played in the World Series in 1982, losing to St. Louis in seven games. Since then, because of horrible drafting and front office whining about being a “small market” team, the best aspect of this franchise was Brewers radio announcer Bob Uecker, as a general funny man and his acting on classic “Major League” movies. The Chicago Cubs failures have been well-documented, with a century of failure in not winning the World Series. Despite past transgressions of total incompetence, these two organizations have made bold moves to challenge one another the rest of the regular season and possibly beyond.

Milwaukee is now owned by Mark Attanasio, a senior partner with the money management firm Trust Company of the West. The Brewers had reformulated their scouting system before Attanasio’a arrival and he provided the necessary infusion of cash, which helped the franchise turn a corner and last season become a contender with a viable future. After years of having one of the worst farm systems in the big leagues, Milwaukee was able to assemble a stellar collection of young talent that won 83 games last season.

After a slow start in 2008, mostly due to inconsistent hitting and bullpen that was strictly two shots and beer just hoping to survive, GM Doug Melvin and manager Ned Yost made adjustments. The loss of Yovani Gallardo was a real blow; nonetheless it opened the door for Manny Parra, who has flourished. With the Cubs fast start and St. Louis and Houston exceeding expectations, Milwaukee was quickly forgotten about. Finally, the Brewers found their stride and started playing with Tiger Woods grinding efficiency in winning 30 of 46 games, to crawl back into contention in the NL Central.

With Cleveland almost in the World Series last season, losing to Boston up 3-1, this has proven to be a larger shadow than possibly what Aaron Rodgers faces in Green Bay. With the Indians about ready to zip up the teepee for 2008, rumors surfaced free agent-to-be C.C. Sabathia was available and about 10 days after the rumors had circulated, he was wearing a Brewers cap, to the amazement of many, with teams like the Yankees and Dodgers needing starting pitching. This made it official, Milwaukee was playing hardball and sportsbooks in Las Vegas have lowered there odds of winning the division to 2-1.

In the past 24 years, the Cubs have made the postseason five times, giving loyal fans of the North Siders something to enjoy, yet falling short of making a World Series. GM Jim Hendry has brought a different approach to the job of overseeing this franchise, after getting by on sunshine, Harry Carry and Sammy Sosa, the Cubs made the decision to start winning. Trades that brought Derrick Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano signaled a different way of doing business. The farm system yielded Carlos Zambrano and Geovany Soto with more on the way. Lou Pinella, thought to be through as a manager after choosing to be the skipper in Tampa Bay, wanted to manage again for a team that WANTED to win.

Chicago won the NL Central last season and changed key components like adding Kosuke Fukodome to the outfield and returning Ryan Dempster to a starting pitcher. For the better part of the year, the Cubs have been the best team in the National League, yet when Zambrano went on the DL; it was shown how thin this staff could be without Big Z at the top. With Milwaukee throwing down the gauntlet, the Cubs responded by trading for Oakland ace Rich Harden. While this looked reactionary, the Cubs had been talking to Oakland about Harden for "three or four weeks," according to Chicago general manager Hendry, and published reports began surfacing Sunday about the Cubs' serious interest in Harden.

Much like a chess move, each has strengthened themselves for stretch run giving up players that could have been part of the future. According to a formula devised by Baseball Abstract, Chicago has the greatest probability of any team in baseball to make the playoffs at 85.5 percent. Milwaukee is third in the National League at 53.6 percent, well ahead of the St. Louis (37.9) to earn October playing time. If Harden can stay healthy, which has always been an issue for the 26-year old right-hander, the Cubs can set-up Zambrano, Harden, Dempster and Lilly, while trying to find right fifth starter.

Milwaukee has literally put all their eggs in one basket, with Sabathia and Ben Sheets both free agents when season concludes. One would have to believe the Brewers will not let both get away, but who knows. If rumors are true about Gallardo being able to be at or near full strength by September, Milwaukee could trot out Sabathia, Sheets, Parra, Gallardo and Jeff Suppan. Heading into the season’s final month, on paper at least, the Brewers would have as imposing a starting five as anyone in baseball.

Today, Chicago is 3-2 odds to win the National League, with Milwaukee not far behind at 7-2. If Ned Yost’s squad can stay about where they are until Labor Day, they would have a very good opportunity to catch the Cubs. Milwaukee’s schedule is fairly balanced after the All-Star break, while the North Siders is not. Starting August 1 thru September 3, Chicago plays 22 of 31 games at Wrigley Field. After that, only six of the remaining 22 contests are at 1060 W. Addison in Chicago. The Cubbies close the year with a seven-game road trip, while the Brew Crew plays six at Miller Park.

In all, these two combatants will meet 10 more times, with seven in what is known as the Miller Valley, including games 160, 161 and 162 for both teams. It promises to be entertaining and nerve-racking for fans and sports bettors alike.

Free baseball selections at 3Daily Winners

2-2 day overall on all selections with the Angels allowing three runs in the bottom of the ninth, a tough one to swallow. Today’s Top Trend will attempt to come back following what Tampa Bay does this month. Our System play was a winner and today we have a beauty that is 17-2 in last 19. Kendall returns, having hit 80 percent of his play recently and has a Hot Free Pick in afternoon action. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST Road underdogs like Cincinnati with a money line of +125 to +175, who are below average NL hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a good bullpen like Chicago (ERA <=3.75), with a starting pitcher like Branson Arroyo whose ERA is 5.70 or worse on the season (NL). This system is 17-2, 89.4 percent the last three years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 3-26 in July road games the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection is on hot streak and returns having hit eight of last 10 selections in all sports. Today he likes Milwaukee on the money line.

Free baseball selections at 3Daily Winners

A quality bounce back day, with not just three, but Four Winners here yesterday. Our Top Trends continue to shine and one of the L.A. teams in involved in 10-1 situation this evening. One of our friends from the Left Coast Connection provided a Free winning pick on a two-team and has another today. The System stuck gold and has another selection that is 81.8 percent since 2006. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites with a money line of -150 or more like Detroit, after having won 2 of their last 3 games and are marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a bad team (38 to 46%) like Cleveland who is 37-52 this season. The super system is 54-12, 81.8 percent the last three years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Los Angeles Angels are 10-1 off a one run loss.

Free Baseball Selection -3) After nailing yesterday’s two-team parlay, a member of the LLC is up +23.9 units using this method in baseball and has Milwaukee and Detroit for today, with $100 bet winning $136 and change.

Free baseball selections at 3Daily Winners

The day’s Top Trend has been picking off winners of late and we bring back the always popular perfect angle in Chicago. Not going to sugar-coat it, System plays have stunk the last week. We’ll look to rebound with 33-5 record in Play Against situation. A new person from the LCC has a nice two-team parlay to consider on the bases tonight. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, like Seattle, where team's hitters draw 3 walks or less a game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like Justin Duchscherer (9-5, 1.96, 0.924 WHIP), who has a WHIP less than 1.000 over his last five starts. This piping hot system is 33-5, 86.8 percent the last three years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Ryan Dempster and the Cubs are 10-0 as home favorites this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) One of the fellas from the Left Coast Connection, prefers to play two-team baseball parlays. To date he is up +22.6 legitimate units and is suggesting Oakland and Detroit for two-teamer that plays out around $135 on a hundred dollar wager.

Sports Thoughts from Fourth of July Weekend

I’ve been a Green Bay Packer fan my entire life, knowing the good times from the glory days of Bart Starr, the decades of incompetence and Brett Favre and Reggie White resurrecting the Pack. I’ve always been a huge Favre fan, though not drinking the green and gold kool-aid to believe that he wasn’t calculating and often stubborn in his beliefs. Years ago, this wise old-country boy played the “aw shucks” enough to understand he craved attention, but would never directly ask for it. His brilliance and toughness outweighed a few character intricacies.

Like most I was shocked by his retirement, since he still was a top 10 quarterback in the NFL, but understood he would rather be Roger Clemons and in his case report a week before the first game and be handed the game plan for upcoming contest. Like most athletes, letting go is the hardest thing to do, since as a child, you have mentally and physically prepared yourself a certain way. Favre having “those urges” this time of year would be natural, since for almost 30 years, it’s been the same feeling when the Fourth of July sets off internal fireworks.

But this is football, not baseball, especially at the quarterback position. Aaron Rodgers has been waiting for this day since signing a contract with Green Bay. Though I have serious doubts he can play a half a season based on a few shorts stints and immediately getting injured, he deserves his turn, as Brett decided to leave. As usual, the dust kicks up and the ol’ Southern Miss QB does nothing to dispel or substantiate the rumors and instead just seems to love the attention. Would I love number four back under center, sure I would. Do I realistically know I’ll see the same gunslinger that led Green Bay 13-3 season in 2007, or does the one who played against the Bears or Giants in the NFC title game show up? Brett, my first ever Packer game at Lambeau Field was when you came in for an injured Don Majkowski and made my daughter a Packer fan for life. It has been a great ride, don’t sink to the level of so many others, stayed retired, stay in shape and when Rodgers likely gets hurt, you can ride in on your favorite tractor, wearing your jeans and at least try to be the hero one more time.

In the past 30 years the numbers of tennis players and golfers have done an about face. It actually happen about seven or eight years ago with Tiger Woods leading the charge for golf and people found out that you actually had to have some amount of athleticism to play tennis and dropped out faster than your can say Agnieszka Radwanska. (She’s ranked 10th on the women’s tour) I’ve always liked banging a tennis ball with somebody, just not people to do it with. Though typically an outdoor guy in the summer on the weekends, was absolutely drawn in by the Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal Wimbledon final. The lefty Nadal from Spain, just a few short years ago was strictly clay court player and no match for the world’s best player in Federer. However, Nadal kept working and working and has found a few chinks in Federer to attack the last 18 months.

The Spaniard was sensational in the first two sets, as Federer made uncharacteristic miscues and missed on several opportunities to break through. Down two sets, possibly the finest tennis player ever, or at least the last 50-60 years, just kept banging away and in the tennis sense,and this became as good as any prize fight you would watch. Bombs, improbable shot-making and speed, this match had it all. Nadal had to use every ounce of skill and determination to finally defeat Federer in the fifth set. Watching the five-time champion’s body language after the match, it was clear he was disbelieving he actually failed to defeat Nadal. Though he showed grace in speaking after the event, his steely determination was on display for those playing attention.

I thought John McEnroe did a good job, though a little over the top in the interviews afterward, with the praise and man-hugs, but I give him a pass, considering his level of expertise and how much he did appreciate the level of play. My guess is for those that watched, they probably went searching for dusty tennis racket to go smack a few. If it wasn’t 110 degrees here, I would have also, waited till today when it was a much cooler 106.

Sports Wagering Info, July 7, at 3Daily Winners

When our Free material at 3Daily Winners have gone into extra innings, our win percentage is under 40 percent, which is what happen to Philadelphia on the Free selection yesterday. Chalk it up to bad luck and hopefully more will go our way later. The perfect Trend play was a winner yesterday and we have a somewhat surprising angle going tonight. Out System play is on the Total and has won 81.5 percent of the time. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY OVER on all teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 in a game involving two good teams (54 to 62 percent), playing on a Monday. The game that fits this criteria is Minnesota at Boston and this system is 44-10, 81.5 percent the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Interesting to note, Pittsburgh is 12-3 as home favorite of -110 or higher in 2008.

Free Baseball Selection -3) I’ll take a swing at this today, (will post current record later today here) go with Milwaukee and new teammate C.C. Sabathia to win over Colorado.

Betting on Baseball’s Urban Legend

One of the many great aspects of wagering is the amount of choices available to those who choose to partake in this endeavor. While most prefer to play side action, many are more comfortable studying totals, devaluing risk by being able to pay reduced juice or find favorable numbers, betting against public perception of adjusted figures. One of the urban legends still floating around in betting baseball totals is to Play Under when the oddsmakers set the numbers low and or when two aces of any major league teams are facing one another.

Never one to take something at face value, decided to dig into these perceived notions and see what we find in 2008. Like always, certain elements follow certain situations. For example, ballparks will have a large influence on totals wagering, because of size or conditions. San Diego, Los Angeles and Texas immediately come to mind for their traits. Teams that hit poorly or feature robust lineups, will tend to be on either end of the spectrum, like a Washington or the Cubs as this year’s clubs. Lastly, top line pitchers will heavily influence totals; names like Brandon Webb, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, John Lackey and Roy Halladay, are top of the mind hurlers for linemakers.

For this exercise, we looked only at how home performed when the total was 8 or less. We also followed the hybrid versions of numbers, meaning 8Under, 8Even and 8Over for example. The only caveats were for the Dodgers, we eliminated any games supposed aces Brad Penny and Derrick Lowe didn’t pitched at home and the was true also for San Diego, using just only games Jake Peavy and Chris Young pitched in downtown San Diego. Everything else was fair game.

Seeing this information had not manifested itself on the internet, it was really not shocking to find out all totals at 8 or less were 108-101-7 Under, 51.6 percent. Hardly revolutionary and mildly compelling. Here is the break down by numbers where we can start to find value.

The number 8 – 59- 55-6 Over

The number 7.5 – 37-31 Under

The number 7 – 13-8-1 Under

The number 6.5 – 3-3

It is evident, reviewing these numbers, 7.5 or less is your best bet with Under hitting 55.7 percent, with 53-42. This does perpetuate the common belief of betting below the oddsmakers number and is a descent reason to wager on these contests, nevertheless, not a sole reason by itself as you will see below. This is a noteworthy figure, but hardly the only one found.

The number 7.5 Under figured to be a large number and was, with 50 instances. Playing Under this number produced 27 winners, for an adequate 54.0 winning percentage. The downfall is the juice associated with this sum, as many sportsbooks now try to hang on to numbers and are unafraid to post up to a -135. The juice eats away at winning percentage, leaving almost no profit. What was interesting was further breakdowns. Home favorites at Un7.5 are 11-4, for +5.45 units. What did catch us off-guard was the differential in leagues. The National League, one would assume would have a greater propensity to go under this total. Instead, we found the American League was 14-7 Under with total set at Un7.5.

The most popular number to arise was Under 8. This ended up being at 32-31-5 Under, providing almost nothing for bettors. Here we found home teams were 44-23, a becoming 65.6 percent. In this case, profit was available on two fronts, home favorites were 33-16, +13.4, with the better value on the home dog at this price with 11-7 record, +5.2 units.

When the count was steady at 8, it was more boring than watching a Washington and San Diego contest. The record was 16-16-1, with home teams 15-18. One potential wager to consider is favorites lost -3.85 units, with 10-11 record.

One gem that came to the surface was Over 8 wagers. This turns out to be a multi-pronged winner to think about. To date, all Ov8 bets are 12-7-1 Over, offering a meaningful profit on such a few wagers. Home teams at this tally have been even better at 14-6, for +7.1 units and home underdogs have cashed all three times they have bubbled up.

[…..especially tantalizing is the Un7, with a 6-1 Under mark and even more delicious record for the road team at 6-1 for +6.2 units.]

As shown previously, with the total at 7 or less, the Under is 16-11-1, making betting contemplation a worthy idea. Visitors have won 16 of these 28 encounters. What is especially tantalizing is the Un7, with a 6-1 Under mark and even more delicious record for the road team at 6-1 for +6.2 units.

While the general belief of this angle is somewhat overblown, it has merit. The real opportunities lie in other areas, nuggets of gold are just waiting to be picked up.

Sports Wagering Info, July 6, at 3Daily Winners

Clean sweep of all three plays yesterday and we’ll look to make it two days in a row. Our LCC member is on 4-0 run here and blazing a trail himself overall with 21-6 record in MLB action. Our Top Trend has yet to lose in last 12 attempts and a neat System play has a 33-7 record since 2004. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like Florida, who are poor baserunning team, averaging less than one stolen base every other game on the season, after a combined score of 15 runs or more two straight games. This quaint little system is 33-7, 82.5 percent the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Baltimore has lost its last dozen Sunday games.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Our unassuming member of the Left Coast Connection is hotter than a firecracker with 21-6 record, +16.0 units in last 27 personal plays and has hit four straight at 3DW. This afternoon, he has Philadelphia bouncing the Mets.