A Big Saturday and Commentary

Today we have four instead of the usual three plays, as our tremendous 90 percent system yields two plays. The Top Trend is a reverse 100 percent selection and Slick Rick is on fire this week and offers his Free Top Play. Good Luck

What I thought this week- Whatever your opinion of Bill Belichick’s decision, did you notice that all the people that agreed with it in the media had the same smugness as Bill himself? Like it was some foregone conclusion that Peyton Manning could go 70 yards just as easily as going 29. I wondered if now departed Dick Jauron had made the same exact call, if he would have as many devoted followers.

Oh look, Brady Quinn just threw another long pass out of bounds by 15 yards. Speaking of Cleveland, great read about John Gruden by Mike Silver in Yahoo Sports. (Click here)

Because I switched off the game last week, I wasn’t aware Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh went for two points with his team ahead 48-21 over USC. It’s fine if Harbaugh wants to rub USC’s nose in it, that’s his choice, but please save me the next coach-speak about “winning with dignity” or “act like we’ve been here before”. Just remember Jimbo payback can be a B****. Now go sit on your throne in your 70G customized private bathroom, you’ve earned it.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, who are average passing team (175-230 PY/game), facing an average passing defense (175-230 PY/game), after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. This system is remarkable 27-3 ATS, 90 percent, which includes 4-0 this season. Two teams rise to the surface for this one, Oregon and Fresno State.

Free Football Trend-2) BYU is 0-11 ATS as home favorite of less than 14 points off back to back road games.

Free Football Pick -3) Slick Rick is 20-3 in all his side and totals wagers this week rides a hot Stanford team today.

3Daily Winners Guaranteed C-USA Football Game of the Year

The Platinum Sheet has two experts hitting 60 percent on Best Bets.

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Not your ordinary college football Saturday

The third Saturday in November is always special on the gridiron. No matter the circumstances, Ohio State and Michigan automatically makes this day standout. However, this is not all that matters in college football, not a long shot. The ACC Atlantic could well be determined if Clemson wins, nevertheless, Boston College is right there to take their place should they falter. Oregon heads the desert at night, still searching for Rose Bowl bid and takes on assiduous Arizona squad. Nebraska wraps up Big 12 North with victory at home; while Texas looks to make it official they would play the Cornhuskers for the conference crown with a win over Kansas. While LSU and Mississippi have are playing only for pride, these are still two of the better teams in the country, which makes this intriguing SEC matchup. All numbers from Bookmaker.com.

Ohio State (-12, 47) at Michigan 12:00E ABC

From the standpoint of being truly meaningful, this won’t be the most dynamic of Ohio State and Michigan matchups, nevertheless it still counts just because it is these two teams. The Buckeyes squeaked by Iowa at home last week 27-24 in overtime and will be playing in first Rose Bowl in 13 years. The last thing Ohio State (9-2, 8-3 ATS ) looked like a month ago was team going to Pasadena as Big Ten representative after losing at Purdue 26-18, as two touchdown road favorites. But as coach Jim Tressel said, “We have to go back to work and fix things” which is exactly what the Buckeyes did. What Ohio State has really done in putting this four-game winning streak together is keep it simple and basic. Play great defense, win the field position battle and make enough plays on offense to turn the tide of the game. The Buckeyes are 14-4 ATS a Big ten road favorites since 2005.

After a promising 4-0 start, Michigan (5-6, 4-6 ATS) is staggering to the finish line. Their only win after quick beginning is against FCS Delaware State. The defense is squarely to blame, having conceded 35 points per game in Big Ten action. As coached Rich Rodriguez correctly pointed out after recent 38-36 loss to Purdue, “You score 36 points you ought to be able to win it.”

This is the one contest on the schedule that can heal some Michigan wounds and though Ohio State is still going to the Rose Bowl on January 1, the Wolverines would take away satisfaction in knowing they made Ohio State co-champions of the conference, instead of outright winners. The issue for Michigan is how to change, since they are 1-9 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two years losing by 14.1 points per contest.

Ohio State is on 7-1 and 6-2 ATS run against Michigan in the “Big Game” and has held the Wolverines to seven or less points in consecutive games for the first time in 54 years.

3DW Line – Ohio State by 15

North Carolina (+3.5, 38.5) at Boston College 12:00E ESPN2

Boston College will be going to a bowl game somewhere this season, but before they do, their preference would be to play in third consecutive ACC championship contest. The Eagles could have incurred a tumultuous campaign, but head coach Frank Spaziani brought stability to the program this season and for the most part it has been business as usual for Boston College (7-3, 6-2-1 ATS). Quarterback Dave Shinskie is a freshman in name only, after spending six seasons in the Minnesota Twins farm system. He added life to a stale offense and wide receiver Rich Gunnell will leave the school at or near the top of numerous B.C. pass catching records. Boston College has regained their home field edge this season, with 6-0 and 5-0 ATS mark. In conference action the last 11 years, the Eagles are 27-12 ATS.

This year has not produced the numbers many thought possible in Butch Davis’ third season, but don’t blame the defense. The entire year, this group has been in the Top 15 in several defensive categories and realistically has only had one bad half which came against Florida State in 30-27 loss. What has been North Carolina’s (7-3, 5-4 ATS) strength is ability to get off the field, with opposing teams converting on just over 30 percent on third down, among the best in the nation. The offense has been plagued by injuries and new receivers learning to blend with quarterback T.J. Yates. The Tar Heels are 12-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record the last three years.

This is North Carolina’s first ever trip to Chestnut Hill and they are 13-8 ATS on the November road. Boston College is 9-2 ATS in home games over the last two seasons and 7-3 ATS in last home contest over the past 10 years.

3DW Line – Boston College by 1.5

LSU (+4.5, 42.5) at Mississippi 3:30E CBS

This was supposed to be a portentous conflict back in August, but Alabama killed that notion and other SEC losses took care of it living up to preseason hype. That doesn’t mean it won’t hold value, since these two squads came in with high hopes and want to finish the regular season proudly. The goal for LSU (8-2, 4-5-1 ATS) is simple, win 10 games, which would be the fourth such occurrence under coach Les Miles in the last five years. The Tigers have several players sucking it up and playing hurt. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson is playing with ankle issues and a number of linemen on either side of the ball are limping or playing thru the pain. Look for coach Miles to dial up the pressure on Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead, who has not reacted well in the face of adversity. The Tigers will most likely walk up a safety to take away Rebels run game, to force obvious passing situations. Check this number out, LSU is 1-12-3 ATS in the SEC off a non-conference tilt.

This is Mississippi’s last home game of the season and they would like to put away previous disappointments. This would ideal situation for Snead to regain confidence and get ready for rivalry game with Mississippi State next week. Snead’s lack of confidence has made him reluctant decision-maker, which has led to interceptions or trying to steer the ball to receivers, instead of playing instinctively. Running backs Dexter McCluster and Brandon Bolden have been good behind a spotty offensive line, especially at tackle. The Rebels (7-3, 6-3 ATS) are 10-5 ATS vs. ranked teams at home.

Ole Miss has been the spread winner 10 of last 12 games played against LSU.

3DW Line – Mississippi by 4.5

Virginia (+21, 44.5) at Clemson 3:30E ABC/GP

Since being upset by Maryland 24-21 as 12.5-point road favorites, the Clemson Tigers (7-3, 7-2 ATS) have rattled off five consecutive wins and are still in the hunt for a first ACC Atlantic Division crown. The Tigers revival has been about playing more complete football games. In the losses against the Terps and Georgia Tech, they appeared like many Clemson teams before them, unfocused and not ready to play. Though they played less than perfect games against conference partners Miami and Florida State, they kept the down time to a minimum and made the right plays when it counted most. Clemson also has skill position players that are a threat to score from anywhere. Running back C.J. Spiller and receiver Jacoby Ford are a threat to score anytime they touch the ball. Clemson has alternated spread wins and losses the last 10 games before rivalry game with South Carolina and they beat Virginia last year 13-3 as two-point favorites. Oh boy!

Virginia (3-7, 4-4-1 ATS) is relegated to third losing season in four years, which could spell the end of nine years of Al Groh as coach in Charlottesville. After averaging in the upper 20’s in points scored for a number of years, the Cavaliers have been at 20 or below in their losing seasons. (19.8 in 2009) This year Groh tried to install spread offense run by offensive coordinator Gregg Brandon, but wasn’t happy with results and went back to pro-style, which left the team without an offensive identity and explains ranking 118th in total offense. Virginia is 18-33 ATS in road games in the second half of the season.

Virginia is 8-36-1 all-time against Clemson; however the underdog is on 12-4 ATS run.

3DW Line – Clemson by 20.5

Kansas State (+16.5, 44.5) at Nebraska 7:45E ESPN

The rehiring of Bill Snyder at Kansas State coach was met with tremendous skepticism, as many figured his run had ended after finishing below .500 in 2004 and 2005. The program did not improve under Ron Prince and Snyder was thought to be a good go-between until a younger and more energetic coach could be hired in Manhattan. An unexpected development occurred along the way. The Wildcats started playing more disciplined football than what was seen in recent years, which helped reduce mistakes. With the Big 12 North full of average teams, Kansas State (6-5, 6-4 ATS) can potentially win the division with the upset of Nebraska. The offensive line came together and running back Daniel Thomas has been putting the hurt on opposing tacklers, while the ‘Cats play keep away with the pigskin. K-State comes into this meaningful confrontation 9-1 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points under coach Snyder since 1992.

The best description of Nebraska (7-3 SU&ATS) football in 2009 style is “they find a way”. It ends up that phrase has a dual meaning. Against Iowa State and Virginia Tech, a -10 turnover margin sealed a pair of losses. However, despite seven first downs and 180 yards of offense against Oklahoma, the Cornhuskers picked off five Sooners passes in 10-3 upset in Lincoln. Take away the Texas Tech misstep; Nebraska defenders have earned back the name “Blackshirts”, holding nine other opponents to 17 points or less. Inconsistent quarterback play has stalled the offense, placing dependence on junior RB Roy Helu to carry the load. The Huskers are 8-3 in home finales, but only 3-8 ATS.

If you haven’t seen Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, make a point, he’s a shredder. These teams have played every year since 1922 and K-State in 6-3 ATS the last nine. The favorite is 5-2 ATS since 2002.

3DW Line – Nebraska by 14

Oregon (-6, 60) at Arizona 8:00E ABC/GP

Over most of this decade, the amount of intrigue in the Pacific 10 this time of year has been who is going to win the conference in basketball, as USC has held a stranglehold on this league. But with the Trojans being knocked out and Oregon slipping at Stanford two weeks ago, an un-thought of matchup like this breathes life into the league.

Let’s start with trivia question, what Pac-10 team has never won the conference and played in Rose Bowl? If you answered Arizona, you are a sage college football fan. Coach Mike Stoops has had the wolves at his doorstep the last couple of years, yet somehow his team pulls an upset late and plays well enough down the stretch. This season the Wildcats didn’t wait as long to get started and are 6-3 and 4-5 ATS. The Arizona defense has been troubled by teams that can move the ball, but the insertion of Nick Foles at quarterback has kept the ‘Cats in every game. The Tucson troops are just 3-12 ATS in last home game.

Oregon (8-2, 7-3 ATS) rebounded from Stanford debacle in dumping the other state of Arizona university last week 44-21. The Ducks still control their own destiny with two more wins to become Pac-10 champs for the first time since 2001 and they haven’t been part of the Rose Bowl pageantry since the 1994 season. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and the offense should have too much speed for Arizona defense, but Wildcats stadium is every bit as intimidating as Autzen Stadium when the joint is packed, which should help their defense.

Despite the Ducks defense having a number of very good games, they are better at running and chasing and not facing power football. Oregon is 13-5 and 12-6 ATS against Zona, yet is 1-3 ATS in last four.

3DW Line – Oregon by 5

Kansas (+27.5, 57.5) at Texas 8:00E ABC/GP

A combination of factors has led to a disappointing campaign for Kansas QB Todd Reesing. A less talented squad, especially on defense, coupled with having to play the stronger contingent from the Big 12 South, has led to 1-5 and 0-6 ATS mark in the conference. Like a lot of Big 12 signal callers coming off banner seasons, Reesing hasn’t been able to put it together. A bothersome groin injury and the lack of running game has allowed defenses to play deep zones and take away quick strike offense that was prevalent two years ago in Orange Bowl season. On defense; not enough size, speed or quickness. Jayhawks defensive coaches have played conservative to force opponents to work the length of the field and blitzed like madmen to force negative plays. Nothing much has worked over a complete contest. Unlike the hoops squad, Kansas (5-5, 2-7 ATS) is 1-5 ATS vs. Top 10 teams.

Texas (10-0, 4-5-1 ATS) has three more games to win before presumed date with SEC champion for the national championship. The way the season has worked out, next week’s rivalry battle at Texas A&M might be the most difficult. One aspect coach Mack Brown would like to repair in the last few games is his players’ mental outlook. When the opposing team is a perceived threat, Texas players have been ready since the first kickoff; however in many other contests in which the Horns were Texas-sized favorites, the wakeup call often came in the second quarter or later, before dominating. Texas is 13-3 ATS in home finales and Colt McCoy could win the Heisman with three outstanding performances.

Kansas hasn’t beaten Texas since 1938, though only seven games have been played with the Jayhawks 0-7 and 1-6 ATS.

3DW Line – Texas by 31

Boise State Seeks Televised Blowout

Boise State continues its quest for perfection, playing its final road game of 2009. The Broncos failed to impress two weeks ago at Louisiana Tech in televised tilt and their impressive win over Idaho was largely seen as highlights. Boise State needs gigantic blowout and to keep winning to set up possible Fiesta Bowl date.

That is not a sure thing either, since it looks like TCU, who is two spots ahead of the Broncos in the latest BCS ratings, is also going to be undefeated this season. That places Boise State in at-large pool and no non-BCS team has ever been selected as an at-large team. With some luck of other teams losing and truly impressive wins in last three WAC contests, they still have a chance.

This Boise State (10-0, 7-2 ATS) team is different than their predecessors, oh sure the 43.6 points per game is impressive, however this team has a formidable defense. Coach Chris Peterson has assembled a hard working crew that runs to the football and to borrow from ESPN analyst Chris Speilman “arrives with bad intentions”. They are ranked 12th in total defense at 295.8 yards per game and are 8-1 ATS after six or more consecutive straight up wins over the last two seasons. On the season they have forced 27 turnovers.

Quarterback Kellen Moore leads the nation in pass efficiency, touchdown passes and touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has 32 touchdown passes and three interceptions. Moore and tailback Jeremy Avery also helped Boise State solve red zone problems they had until recently. With Utah State 106th in the county in total defense, allowing 435.9 yards per game, the Broncos are 7-0 ATS when they gain 450 to 500 total yards since last year.

Utah State’s record (3-7) doesn’t reflect a general improvement under first year coach Gary Anderson; however they have been much more competitive. This is authenticated by the fact the Aggies are 7-3 against the oddsmakers in 2009.

Romney Stadium should be packed for this nationally televised cable contest and coach Anderson knows a thing or two about the spotlight, having been the defensive coordinator at Utah last year when his team ousted Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

“I think it is big for us regardless of the outcome of the game. We are on national television. I remember going through this at Utah where our helmet wasn’t known. Now it is,” Andersen said. “Boise State was the same way at one point. It is not that way anymore. That is where we are at. We will take that national stage anyway we can.” Utah State is 8-1 ATS in home lined games over the last two seasons.

Junior QB Diondre Borel has led efficient attack that averages 33 points per game at home and like Moore; he doesn’t give the ball away, with only three picks. He helped lead USU to 24-9 win over San Jose State at home last week and they are 10-2 ATS after playing a game at home since 2007.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Boise State as 23.5-point favorites, with a total of 61. The Broncos are 31-11 ATS off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival and 38-12 ATS off two straight wins over WAC opponent. This might be the wrong contest to show the strides Utah State has made since they are 0-8, 0-7-1 ATS against the Broncos. They have lost last four games by 49-11 average score.

But that doesn’t mean Utah State won’t be psyched. “We are all excited, especially the seniors. We haven’t really thought about it being senior night. It is just another game we have to prepare for,” USU senior linebacker Adrian Bybee said. “It is our last home game and we want to keep our home record strong. We want to finish up with a 4-1 record at home. That is something, as seniors, that we can be proud of. That is what we are preparing for.”

A sharp Utah State media relations person found the Aggies have won six of last seven SU on November 20. Nevertheless, Utah State is 0-25 vs Top 25 teams the last 18 years and has lost its last 15 non-Saturday encounters.

The excitement starts 9:30 Eastern on ESPN2.

In Search of Perfect Thursday

I was shaky on the system play yesterday and it was proven out for 1-2 day. Today’s system has two offerings on the same game both over 80 percent. Today you get to choose. The Top Trend is in a televised NBA game and absolutely perfect. For today’s Free Play it is one-sided in the NFL. Good Luck

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites when playing on a Thursday. (25-6 ATS L5Y) OR>>> PLAY AGAINST favorites after covering the spread in four or five out of their last six games, with a losing record. (24-3 ATS (24-3 ATS L5Y)

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Chicago Bulls are 8-0 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Out of 14 LCC members on tonight’s NFL game, 12 are backing Carolina.

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Carolina at Miami Matchup

For any team with a smashmouth running attack, it stands to reason that a strong offensive line and group of running backs would be key. So it’s easy to see why Carolina and Miami might be in a little trouble when they square off in Week 11. The Panthers lost starting left tackle Jordan Gross to a broken ankle in last week’s 28-19 win over Atlanta, while the status of Dolphins Ronnie Brown now officially listed as done for the season. The Wildcat stud left last week’s 25-23 win over Tampa Bay in the third quarter with an ankle injury, though Ricky Williams more than picked up the slack with 102 yards on 20 carries.

Miami and Carolina have met just three times previously and not in Carolina since 1998. The Dolphins swept all three prior meetings, both SU and ATS, holding the Panthers to just 39 points. The fourth meeting could be the deathblow to the loser’s postseason hopes for 2009.

Both teams are 4-5 SU and ATS after nine games and currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Miami has lost three of its four games on the road this season, but that road has been a treacherous one, as all four opponents have a winning record at this point. Under coach Tony Sparano, the ‘Fins are 0-7 ATS when squaring off vs. NFC foes.

Miami’s defense was picked apart late in last week’s game by rookie Josh Freeman for a pair of touchdowns and were bailed out by quarterback Chad Henne’s game-saving field goal dive that secured the win over the Bucs. The Dolphins arrive in Carolina 7-19-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Carolina stumbled out of the gate with a 0-3 start but has rebounded with victories in four of the last six, due in large part to much-improved play by veteran quarterback Jake Delhomme. In the first three games he threw two touchdowns with seven interceptions, but coming out of the win over the Falcons has now gone interception-free for three in a row. The rededication to the running game has also helped.

DeAngelo Williams has run for 640 yards and five touchdowns over the last five games, while Jonathan Stewart’s numbers are equally impressive (328 yards, five touchdowns). The loss of Gross for the balance of the season is a big one, but it didn’t hurt the ground attack right off the bat. The two still combined for 174 yards against the Falcons last week.

Carolina is only 2-2 at home with one cover and is 0-5 ATS in November off a division upset as underdog. Bookmaker.com has Carolina as three-point favorites, with total of 42.5. This could be a situational wagering conflict. The Panthers are 15-5 ATS vs. poor passing teams like Miami (30th) averaging 175 or less passing yards a game in the second half of the season. While Miami is 9-23 ATS versus rushing teams like Carolina (3rd) averaging 130 or more rushing yards a game after the midpoint of the season.

This is NFL Network telecast which begins at 8:20 Eastern. With Miami’s defense allowing 25.2 points per game, it should be noted that the Panthers are 41-17 ATS vs. teams allowing 24 or more per outing.

Steve Makinen of StatFox and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Cowboys expected to ride Buffalos hard

Among the surprises in college football this season is Oklahoma State. Not in the traditional sense, though the possibility of the Cowboys finishing in second place in the Big 12 South does carry some shock value. It is how Oklahoma State has compiled 8-2 record, having a solid defense that is the cause for surprise.

Oklahoma State’s season has been startling, considering their terrific trio has been reduced to basically just one, with quarterback Zac Robinson carrying the burden. All-America receiver Dez Bryant was lost because of a NCAA suspension and running back Kendall Hunter has been slowed by a nagging ankle/foot injuries and only recently has come back to play, lacking his usual explosiveness.

The Cowboys (6-3 ATS) are ranked fourth in the Big 12 in defense and 32nd nationally, surrendering 333.9 yards per game. Okie State has been incredibly stingy on the ground, allowing 89.6 yards per game, good for sixth nationally. Linebacker Patrick Lavine is among those who accepted the challenge once the offense lost several weapons. “He’s a great playmaker for us,” said teammate Andre Sexton, another senior linebacker. “He steps up and makes game-changing plays when we need it.”

Oklahoma State has lost only to Texas in last eight games and is 22-8 ATS in home games after covering the spread in two out of their last three contests. The Cowboys will take on Colorado (3-7, 5-5 ATS), who might have another coach on the sidelines next season.

Dan Hawkins is dismissing reports he’s under fire despite 16-31 record in Boulder. Though Hawkins was brought in to help clean up the program from the scandal-laden days under Gary Barnett and succeeded, big time football isn’t just about getting the players to go to class and keep trouble to a minimum, it’s about winning. This will be the third time in four years with no bowl game for Buffs under Hawkins, who are plagued with inconsistencies and penalties.

This is a burdensome spot Colorado, having lost at Iowa State 17-10 on Saturday and having to playing another road game on a short week. Under Hawkins, the Buffs are 4-12 ATS after scoring 14 points or less and 4-13 against the spread after playing their last game on the road.

Bookmaker.com has Oklahoma State as 17-point home favorites with total of 47.5, suggesting a final score of roughly 32-15. If that score appears to low, than the fact the Cowboys are 11-3 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons and 13-4-2 ATS at home in November should be more comforting. Colorado doesn’t look to be in a very good situation and 6-15 ATS road record backs up that point up. However, for those that see the glass half full as opposed to half empty, the Buffalos are 4-0 ATS catching 17 or more points in last four tries.

ESPN of course will have this telecast at 7:45 Eastern, with Chris Fowler watching his alma mater. (Colorado if you didn’t know) In the last 17 encounters between these squads, the SU winner has won by 10 or more points 14 times.

Better late than never Wednesday

The day to day nature of the NBA got us yesterday with a pair of losses. Tonight we have a CFB play against a decided road favorite at 25-5 ATS. In hockey, Colorado shows up in perfect situation for Top Trend and our numbers show an NBA team being undervalued against the oddsmakers for Free play. Good Luck

What I learned this week- This aspect 3Daily Winners will be closer to game times over the next few weeks, thought I'd let you know.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like Central Michigan with a win percentage of 60-80 percent off a home win, playing a terrible team with win percentage below 25 percent. This system checks in at 25-5 ATS, 83.3 percent the last five years.

Free Hockey Trend-2) The Colorado Avalanche is 7-0 revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) A check of the numbers has Atlanta Hawks undervalued as a favorite by more than four points making them enticing play.

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Time for a MAC Attack

For weekday college football, it’s been all Mid-American Conference all the time this month and this continues on Hump Day with a two more tilts. Central Michigan is trying to win the league championship for a third time in four years and takes another step closer with a victory over Ball State. Miami-O tries to end dismal season on a positive, hosting Buffalo in the other MAC matchup.

Central Michigan at Ball State 8:00E ESPN2

The Chippewas held serve in blowout win over Toledo 56-28 last week and will try to do the same at Ball State. Central Michigan (8-2, 7-2 ATS) forced five turnovers and quarterback Dan LeFevour threw for 341 yards showing exactly why they are unbeaten (5-1 ATS) in conference play. The Chippewas have big game with Northern Illinois next and are 9-1 ATS before they play them.

Ball State (1-9, 5-4 ATS) just finished with the Huskies, losing 26-20 and is on short week for final home game. The Cardinals are 12-2 ATS in home games having lost two out of their last three games.

It’s been a long season for the Cardinals and with Central Michigan averaging 33.1 points per game, the Ball State is going to have to step up as the Cardinals are 24-49 ATS when they allow 28 or more points since 1992.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Chippewas favored by -15 and the home team is 1-4 ATS in last five meetings; however Ball State is 5-2 ATS in last contest at Scheumann Stadium.

Buffalo at Miami-O 6:00E ESPNU

The whole televised deal hasn’t worked out for Buffalo (3-7, 4-6 ATS), losing last two games by on total of four points on the world wide leader’s family of networks. The Bulls offense moves the ball, but doesn’t always finish drives properly; accounting for the fact they average 23.8 points per game against opponents that have allowed 26.1.

Miami-O (1-10, 5-6 ATS) has had forgettable season and will try and send seniors out with one last blast of glory. The RedHawks problems are easily definable, -23 turnover margin. About the only positive is redshirt freshman QB Zac Dysert’s play. He too has thrown enough interceptions that a meager Miami defense cannot overcome. They are 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons.

Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite and is 11-2 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse.

Time for Tuesday's Top Tips

Officially had a 1-0 day with our trend play being a fortunate winner, though all three systems ending up being correct. For Tuesday, we have an exceptional total system that is 28-5 over an extended period of time. The Top Trend searches for another winner and has LeBron and company on its side. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday- It’s very difficult to believe the Cleveland Browns will win another game this season, unless the entire opposing team comes down with H1N1 flu.

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Free Basketball System-1) PLAY UNDER on all teams like Denver where the total is greater than or equal to 200, after going Under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, against opponent who went Under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game. In the last 13 years this totals system is 28-5, 84.8 percent, including 1-0 this season. Note – Line dropped three points already.

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Cleveland Cavaliers are 19-2 ATS after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half over the last two seasons, with average margin 16.4 PPG.

Free Basketball Pick -3) By 5:30 Eastern

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College Basketball Marathon

Starting at midnight Eastern, ESPN will have 24 hours of continuous college basketball coverage with enough games to take care of the insomniac and the early and late morning-risers. It is a feast for the basketball bettor, a great way to kick-start another season. Without further ado, here is the complete menu on ESPN, with ESPN2 and ESPNU to also have contests to consider.

11:59E Cal-State Fullerton vs. UCLA (-16.5)

The Titans have the unenviable task of replacing Big West Player of the Year Josh Akognon, however the roster is loaded with nine newcomers many of which are designed to improve rebounding margin which was -4.2 per game a season ago. UCLA will have a completely different look about them with nine freshmen and sophomores. As the season commences, the only familiar name to most people is holdover Michael Roll. Cal-State is 1-4 ATS in last five underdog roles. Cal-State Full wins 68-65 2OT

2:00E San Diego State vs St. Mary’s (-5.5)

San Diego State lost four starters, yet most experts figure the Aztecs will be as good if not better with solid transfers and junior college players meshing with holdovers like power forward Billy White, forward Tim Shelton and guard D.J. Gay. St. Mary’s maybe without outstanding guard Paddy Mills, but Wayne Hunter and Omar Samhan are expected to step up and be the leaders. Matthew Dellavedova could be the next great player from Australia for the Gaels, who are 9-3-1 ATS in non-conference action. St. Mary's wins 80-58

4:00E Northern Colorado vs Hawaii (-5.5)

Northern Colorado lost nine games by five points or less a season ago and they hope starting guards Will Figures and Devon Beitzel can help turn those defeats into wins with more experience. New players will be in the backcourt for Hawaii, looking to increase scoring and be help to forward Roderick Flemings, who has all-WAC talent. The Bears are 14-4-1 ATS in non-Big Sky action, while the Warriors are 10-27-1 ATS in non-conference contests. Northern Colorado wins 81-75

6:00E Monmouth vs St. Peter’s (TBD)

Talk about your early risers! Monmouth welcomes back four starters, including All-NEC guard Jeremy Goode, but lost their big people from a year ago and is 7-3 ATS on the road. St. Peter’s was 6-24 two seasons ago and believes they can finish .500 with a veteran cast back. The Peacocks believe juco forward Jeron Belin could be the reason they have success. St. Pete’s has covered 16 of last 21 games. St.Peter's wins 58-34

8:00E Drexel vs Niagara (-9.5)

Besides St. Peter’s from the MAAC, Niagara is another team from the conference looking to get an early start to the day. The Purple Eagles are perennial contender in their conference and have a veteran backcourt to go along with all-MAAC performer Bilal Benn. Drexel was a surprise team in the CAA last season and will look to build on that foundation with leading returning scorer Gerald Colds and senior Leon Spencer. The Dragons hope to be breathing fire off OT loss to St. Joe’s, yet are 6-17-3 ATS off spread loss. Niagara wins 76-69

10:00E Clemson vs Liberty (+10.5)

Clemson lost a lot of ability from last year’s squad, however coach Oliver Purnell brought in his best recruiting class to play along with holdovers Trevor Booker and point guard Demontez Stitt. The Tigers are 9-3 ATS against teams with winning home record. Liberty was 23-12 last season, but lost talented freshmen Brolin Floyd and Seth Curry, who decided to transfer to bigger schools. Kyle Ohman and Jesse Sanders are main returning starters. Clemson wins 79-39

Noon E Northeastern vs Siena (-8.5)

Siena is the overwhelming choice to make a third consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament, something that hasn’t happened in this conference in 20 years. Four starters and Sixth Man of the Year in the conference gives the Saints a formidable group. During lunch it would be smart idea to check this contest out and catch a glimpse of Matt Janning, a versatile all-around shooter for Northeastern. He’ll face a Saints team that is 7-1 ATS in non-conference action.

2:00E UALR vs Tulsa (-16.5)

Arkansas-Little Rock bade farewell to four seniors who helped them to back-to-back Sun Belt divisional titles. This means more than ever they will be dependent on coach Steve Shields stifling defensive principles and they are 8-2 ATS in last 10 road games. With Memphis no longer a sure thing in C-USA, Tulsa is ready to move up and claim the league crown. The return of senior center Jerome Jordan and fellow senior guard Ben Uzoh makes this a real possibility. The Golden Hurricane is 24-9-2 ATS following a SU win of more than 20 points.

4:00E Temple vs Georgetown (-8.5)

Senior guard Ryan Brooks and junior forward Lavoy Allen are Temple’s only returning starters and they will try to improve upon the Owls recent 1-4 ATS mark against the Big East. Georgetown appears poised to rebound from last year’s disappointing season, with Chris Wright and Austin Freeman giving them explosive backcourt. Center Greg Monroe showed enough to almost enter NBA Draft after freshman campaign but wisely came back for second season. The Hoyas have a ways to go to gain the trust of basketball bettors with 5-15-1 ATS record in last 21 tilts.

6:00E Charlotte vs. Duke (TBD )

Duke has handily won its first two games without its full complement of players; however will welcome back guard Nolan Smith who was suspended two games for playing in an unsanctioned summer league. Veteran players like Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer more than made up for the difference. Charlotte won last night 75-61 over Elon, behind Shamari Spears 23 points. Duke is 9-3 ATS after allowing 50 or less points in last game. This is contest is part of the pre-season NIT and he winner will advance to the semifinals at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 25.

8:00E Gonzaga vs Michigan State (-11)

For the first time in years, Gonzaga doesn’t look like a Top 15 team with frontcourt wiped out. Versatile guard Matt Bouldin is the one remaining stud, with Steven Gray and Demetri Goodson solid backcourt companions. The Bulldogs are 4-12 ATS against teams with winning record, though seldom as underdog. What does second-ranked Michigan State do for encore after being national runner-up? Find ways to improve with deep and talent-laden roster under coach Tom Izzo. The Spartans are 11-3-1 ATS off a by 20 or more.

10:00E Memphis vs Kansas (-11)

How quickly the mighty reload. Less than two years removed from national championship, Kansas is a nearly unanimous preseason No.1. The talent is deep and the addition of guard Xavier Henry, gives coach Bill Self a wing player that can go inside or out, something missing a season ago. Kansas is on 27-9-1 ATS run. Senior G Doneal Mack is the only player back for Memphis with more than 10 starts, as they start a new era with Josh Pastner now as coach. A falloff is expected but how much is to be determined. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS in last eight non-conference clashes.

It's not just another Monday

We’ll take the old 2-1 day anytime to improve recent hot streak to 10-3. Had to make decision to pass on Top System because we have many to choose from in today’s listed articles. Hope it doesn’t haunt me like Bill Belichick’s. The Top Trend is in the NBA and Free Play is coming .Good Luck

What I learned yesterday- The Titans broke at 17-all tie with 24 points in the fourth quarter for a 41-17 win over the Bills. Buffalo, which was outscored 22-0 in the final period of last week's loss to Houston, became the first team in NFL history to be outscored by more than 21 points in the fourth quarter of consecutive games.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Systems-1)We have a whole bunch to consider today in articles below.

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Atlanta Hawks are 14-3 ATS after three or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Most of the guys from the LCC are evidently not to crazy about today and the game with the most action is the Monday night contest, with seven on Cleveland and six on Baltimore.

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NBA Monday System Watch

It’s the start of another week in the NBA with only three games on the menu. Each contest has a valuable system that that can help shape a potential wager or change one’s minded to open up other possibilities. In any event, here are the Top NBA systems for a Monday night of action.

Charlotte at Orlando (-11.5, 178)

The Orlando Magic (7-3, 6-4 ATS) will have the services of Rashard Lewis once again, whose been sitting out a 10-game suspension after testing positive for an elevated testosterone level. The Magic continued New Jersey’s woes this past Friday with 88-82 victory, while Charlotte (3-6, 5-4 ATS) offensive funk continued with 80-74 loss against Portland Saturday.

This sets up potential OVER play, since teams like Orlando after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less, and facing opponent who tallied 35 points or less in the first half of last game are 44-16, 73.3 percent the last five years.

Portland at Atlanta (-4, 189)

The Trailblazers (8-3 SU&ATS) and the Hawks (8-2, 9-1 ATS) are two of the best teams in the early going of the NBA season and having backers build significant bankrolls in the early going with a combined 17-4 spread record.

Something will have to give tonight as Atlanta has won and covered four in a row and Portland is on even better streak at six straight in the two categories. Sportsbook.com has the Hawks as home favorites and that might be correct, as road teams having four or more consecutive wins, playing their third road game in four days are 16-38 ATS, 27 percent in next outing since 2005.

Dallas at Milwaukee (-1.5, 190.5)

Michael Redd better get healthy quick or he might turn into Wally Pipp. (Google it) Rookie Brandon Jennings set a Milwaukee franchise record with 55 points Saturday night in 129-125 win over Golden State (previous rookie record mark of 51 set by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - then known as Lew Alcindor), in just his eighth game. Redd has been out since the second game of the season for the Bucks (5-2 SU&ATS) with a knee injury and Milwaukee has won four consecutively.

Dallas (7-3 SU&ATS) is 2-1 on the last stop of a four-game road trip, which included 95-90 win yesterday at Detroit as 4.5-point favorites. This will be the Mavericks fifth contest in a week, yet the situation favors them. In November, teams playing that many games in seven days, with a line are +3 to -3, are 17-4 ATS the last three years.

The Cleveland Browns are so ugly......

Even the biggest of Browns fans is fed up. “Dawg Pound Mike,” whose real name is Mike Randall, could have an impact Monday night than anyone in uniform. The longtime season-ticket holder in the front row of the rowdy end zone bleacher section is encouraging fans to stay away from their seats for the opening kickoff of this game against Baltimore to send a message to owner Randy Lerner about the sad state of the franchise.

Cleveland is 1-7 (3-5 ATS) and is invoking sarcastic humor from long time comedians of the past like Henny Youngman and Rodney Dangerfield. The Browns’ quarterbacks have been so bad they went massage parlor and found out it was self service.

Cleveland has scored only five offensive touchdowns in 2009, and quarterbacks Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn have combined for three touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. Even Josh Cribbs, the team’s most spectacular player, has been picked off. The Browns are dead last in passing offense at 121.5 yards per game and average 4.2 yards per pass attempt. Cleveland is 20-51 ATS when they gain five or less net passing yards an attempt.

The Browns have had better than two weeks to get ready for this game and the only news out of Cleveland is turmoil. Eric Mangini’s players think he’s more Atilla the Hun than their football coach. Internet reports of extremely long practices and Mangini being too heavy handed, has talk of Mutiny on Lake Erie. Mangini is looking more like some of the evil characters on the “Sopranos”, of which he made a guest appearance back when everything was much rosier as coach of the Jets.

The Browns are looking to snap a six-game losing streak vs. divisional foes, but they are 2-1 ATS in that scenario thus far. The Cleveland fans think there team is playing like dogs and have started calling the team “Egypt”, because they leave a pyramid after each game. (Thanks, Rodney)

DiamondSportsbook.com has Baltimore as 11-point favorites with total of 39. The Ravens are presumed to win and Monday night road teams as chalk of nine or more are 11-5 ATS in most recent outings. The favorite has been the way to go in Cleveland’s post-bye week games, 7-1 ATS in last eight contests. However, the Ravens have struggled in Cleveland of late, going just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in five previous visits. Baltimore (4-4, 5-3 ATS) has lost four of last five, nevertheless is 15-7-1 ATS after losing as a favorite, which happened in Cincinnati last week.

The Cleveland Browns wives joined a bridge club, they jump off next Tuesday.

Baltimore covers if they change it up a bit. Cleveland is expected to make lots of miscues, thus go no-huddle and take the game to them. Most bad teams only need a reason to quit playing, give them one by having Joe Flacco flinging the ball around and opening up the field for Ray Rice. This is the perfect opponent to blitz like mad-men since Browns receivers are useless in creating separation. In truth, the Ravens just have to play Baltimore football, which should be good enough.

Cleveland covers if Brady Quinn can lead the Browns offense to early scores. Cleveland is devoid of any real game-breakers, thus must move the chains and be mistake-free, something they have been unable to do. Quinn needs to be accurate with his throws, since the Baltimore corners are nothing special. Hopefully the Browns coaching staff added Wildcat to their offense with the time off, giving their one true playmaker Cribbs a chance to at least try and make something happen. If the Brownies were playing attention on Sunday, a number of bad teams gave great effort and either almost won or did win against better teams by playing loose, with nothing to lose, why not do the same.

Monday Night System – Play Against home team off a bye hosting a division foe. (11-2 ATS, L16Y)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

NFL Week 10 Plays

Actually feel a little guilty, but we have gotten this far doing what we are doing. Marty was 6-1 yesterday to continue his torrid pace in CFB, but he lost his top pick which was Kansas State which he gave out here. Marty, stay hot my friend. We ended up 4-1 in CFB here this week and have the absolutely Best NFL System we have had all year running today at 96 percent, holy ****. The Top Trend involves tonight’s big Patriots and Colts matchup. Good Luck

New Poll Question at bottom of the page

What I thought yesterday- Isn’t the point of instantly replay to get the call right? Three more instances witnessed where an obvious call was wrong by these people after reviewing. Either get it right or scrap it.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) Play On home teams like Washington after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, have winning percent of 25 percentage less, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Best system found this year, 24-1 ATS, 96 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) The New England Patriots are 13-2 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game after eight or games since 1992.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal was 5-0 in the NFL last week and 9-3 in last dozen and punched the Jets ticket for his biggest winner today.

We have Division Game of the Month and Paul Buck has another Guaranteed Upset Winner!

Pats at Colts - Special Contest

A few weeks ago, Week 10’s Sunday night matchup pitting Tom Brady against Peyton Manning appeared to be another in a strong line of games with intriguing storylines for the NBC crew. Continuous injuries to the Indianapolis defense, however, give Brady and New England an advantage when they take the field at the RCA Dome.

The rivalry of the decade resumes in Indianapolis with the stakes high once again, as both teams are off to fast starts and considered top contenders for the AFC title. It wouldn’t be a shock if they meet again in January with a bigger prize on the line.

Running a close second to Manning in terms of earning the Colts 2009 MVP award, is the training staff, as it ranks as one of the most overworked in the NFL. On top of the normal sprains and nagging injuries that have already shelved running back Donald Brown (shoulder) and cornerback Kelvin Hayden (knee), Manning has watched six members of the defense go down for the year. Added to the list, prior to a 20-17 win over Houston last week, were cornerback Marlin Jackson (knee), linebacker Tyjuan Hagler (biceps) and most importantly, the heart and soul of the defense, safety Bob Sanders (elbow). The Colts (5-3 ATS) remains perfect at 8-0, but are just 1-3 ATS at home in 2009, and are 4-10 ATS in its previous testsas host overall.

Brady must be completely healed as he and his offensive teammates beat up on Tennessee and Tampa Bay before their bye week for a combined 688 yards and nine touchdowns. He then torched Miami’s secondary for 332 more yards, including a 71-yard scoring strike to Randy Moss in a 27-17 non-cover victory last Sunday.

It has been a thrilling head-to-head series since Bill Belichick arrived in New England in 2000. There have really been two different eras in the series, with the Patriots winning six straight games between 2001-04, and the Colts having since turned the tide, with about face record of 4-1 SU and ATS in last five confrontations.

In terms of raw numbers, Manning has enjoyed considerable success against New England during his career. But if there’s one player that casts a shadow even bigger than that of Manning, the multimedia superhero, Brady is it. The three-time Super Bowl winner owns two more titles than Manning. Four straight battles between the teams have been decided by a touchdown or fewer, including last season’s 18-15 decision taken by the Colts as six point favorites. The Matt Cassel-led Patriots managed just one touchdown and three field goals.

Line – Indianapolis -2.5 (Courtesy of Sportsbook.com)
Total – 48.5

Team Trends
The Patriots are 13-2 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game after eight or more games on the season.
The Patriots are 2-10 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in two straight games.
The Colts are 17-6 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game on the season.
The Colts are 2-10 ATS in home games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in consecutive contests.

Team Totals
The Patriots are 6-0 UNDER in road games off a home win since last year.
The Colts are 13-3 UNDER in home games after six or more consecutive wins.

Sunday Night Trends
The Patriots are 12-16-1 ATS and 5-7-1 ATS as road underdogs.
The Colts are 16-18 ATS and 4-8 ATS as home favorites.
Home teams are 4-18 ATS when both teams are off a SU win.

Expert Opinion – Steve Makinen

This game reminds me a lot of last Sunday night’s feature contest between the Eagles and Cowboys. Philly was playing well and was at home, but yet, oddsmakers had no qualms about keeping the line on the 3-mark throughout the entire week. Bettors sided with the Eagles and lost. Here, the Colts are facing their own old nemesis, the Patriots, and have some injury and home performance woes of their own to deal with. Indy has only covered one of its four games at home, and is just 4-10 ATS in its L14 as host. The Patriots meanwhile are getting better and better as the year rolls on and are a legitimate threat to leave just one team unbeaten. Trends like this underscore what role the coaching difference might play in this game: Bill Belichick is 18-8 ATS versus excellent offensive teams averaging six or more yards/play as the coach of New England. Take the points with New England.

Game Preview by College and Pro Football Newsweekly and Steve Makinen of StatFox.

Wagering on Desperate NFL Teams

This week starts the second half of the season and already certain teams have games that could send their year one way or another. Currently, .500 teams Jacksonville and the Jets have seven teams ahead of them in the AFC, which means the loser of this contest could have dicey situation making the playoffs. Cincinnati is tied with Pittsburgh, but key injuries are mounting, an upset effort keeps mojo moving forward. Carolina played well at New Orleans, but a loss to Atlanta makes them 3-6, looking at 6-1 finish for playoff redemption. Both Philadelphia and San Diego are chasing division leaders and will want to keep pace, however somebody loses. Green Bay’s season starting to go the way of Richard Heene (Balloon Dad) and needs upset of Dallas to turn year around.

Jacksonville at New York Jets 1:00E CBS

The Jets last played two weeks ago and held the Dolphins to just 104 yards of total offense. That incredible defensive performance is little consolation to head coach Rex Ryan however, as his team lost 30-25, to fall back to 4-4. During the bye week, Ryan described his feeling as “sick” about the first half, figuring his team was better suited for 6-2. As a result, he gave his players six days off to rest up for this contest with Jacksonville. New York (4-4 ATS) has done well coming out of the bye, going 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in their last seven post-bye week games. They are also 12-1 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since 1997. However, the Jaguars (3-5 ATS) have the edge in the recent matchups, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. Coach Jack Del Rio’s team is also 4-4 after beating Kansas City.

Keys to the Game-

Jacksonville went back to 4-3 defense after Tennessee racked up 305 yards on the ground against 3-4 scheme. This becomes important now, since the Jets lead the NFL in rushing at 177.6 yards per game. This is huge key on the road, since that means Mark Sanchez would have to beat them with the pass. Sanchez has coughed up eight fumbles, thus applying pressure and getting him rattled is tantamount. The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS as underdog vs. opponent off a favorite loss and David Garrard has to make wise choices against talented New York secondary and cannot become incogitant.

Coach Ryan hopes the extra week helped clear Sanchez’s boggled brain and he returns as sharp as he started the year. The former USC star should benefit of not seeing extreme pressure, as the Jags are dead last in the NFL in sacks with eight. The defense’s top priority is containing Maurice Jones-Drew, who has more moves than a street dancer. Keep Mr. Hyphen in check and attack Garrard, who like Sanchez will leave the pigskin on the field. The Flyboys are 13-2 ATS at the Meadowlands off a home loss.

3DWLine – Jets by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Jets -7, 41

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 1:00E CBS

The AFC North race figures to be a slugfest the rest of the way, with all three top teams within striking distance of one another. The winners of the head-to-head battles figure to gain the upper hand. Prior to the first meeting of 2009 between these teams, the winner in this series was usually Pittsburgh (6-2, 5-3 ATS), who had gone 26-9 SU and 22-12 ATS vs. Cincy since 1992. The Bengals turned the tables though in Week 3, pulling out a 23-20 upset at home in the final minute as a three-point underdog. The Steelers will look to avenge that defeat and extend a 10-game home winning streak on Sunday. They are 7-3 ATS in that span, allowing just 14.1 points per game. The Bengals (6-2, 5-3 ATS) are off the home win over Baltimore, and boast 12-2 ATS record after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half under Marvin Lewis.

Keys to the Game-

Cincinnati lost receiver Chris Henry who was important cog in Bengals passing game. This places greater emphasis in RB Cedric Benson who is quickly becoming a complete back with ability to do everything. The Bengals are tied for seventh is sacks at 21 and the D-Line has to disrupt Ben Roethlisberger, while maintaining lane control so he doesn’t leave the pocket. It’s a misconception at the moment that the Steelers are punishing offense. Their passing game ranks 5th, with the running game a pedestrian 15th. Cincy should play Cover 3 defense and have secondary break on balls instead of outside man-up coverage. An upset allows Bengals time to find replacements for injured and gains what amounts to two-game lead in division. Cincy is on 7-0 ATS run as dog.

Pittsburgh has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 30 straight games including the playoffs, no reason to figure they’ll concede one in this spot. Lock up Benson and don’t let him matter in the passing game. The Steelers defense was not clicking in Week 3 defeat to Bengals, it is now. Attack Carson Palmer, who just lost short-crossing route companion Henry, make him look elsewhere, with potential miscues to follow. Pitt is 30-11 ATS playing against teams with .750 or higher win percentage and will want to establish Rashard Mendenhall, whose 5.7 yards per carry in last five games is second only to Titans Chris Johnson (6.7).

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 8.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Pittsburgh -7, 41.5

Atlanta at Carolina 1:00E FOX

With New Orleans running away from the rest of the NFC South, Atlanta and Carolina have had to readjust their goals for 2009. The Falcons (6-2 ATS) are still in the wild card picture at 5-3, but face a difficult two-game road swing starting with this matchup. Carolina is 3-5 after losing to the Saints, but has a second half schedule loaded with five home games. That may or may not be of benefit, as the Panthers (3-5 ATS) have yet to cover a spread at home, with 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS record. This will be Carolina’s first divisional home game of 2009, after going 3-0 ATS in that scenario a year ago. This will be a revenge spot for the Panthers and they are 20-8 ATS avenging a same season loss. Including 28-20 win in Week 2, Atlanta holds a 16-7 SU and 14-8-1 ATS edge vs. Carolina since 1998.

Keys to the Game-

This division conflict also matters to Atlanta a great deal, as with a win they are no worse than top NFC wild card team moving forward. Matt Ryan is in the first slump of his young career. He’s had two games passing under 175 yards in last three and the other one he completed less than 50 percent of attempts. His team needs him particularly on the division road. The Carolina running has found its stride the last several weeks and the Birds are 26th against the run. The defensive line has to create penetration, with linebackers staying clean to make tackles. RB Michael Turner has regained his form with 317 yards rushing in last two games. Keep him busy and the turf-playing Falcons fly to 15-6 ATS on real grass.

Coach John Fox, time to geek it up. It mattered when Jake Delhomme threw four picks against Philadelphia in opener. This team is in serious need of attitude adjustment. Playing conservative and losing is worse than going all out to get the ball to Steve Smith 10 or more times. The running game will be even more dangerous if Atlanta understands you will throw the ball down the field to Smith and others. On defense, run more games up front; force your players to give more (they can) and go after Falcons with passion, something missing all season. The Panthers 20-7 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, make it happen.

3DW Line – Atlanta by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Atlanta -1.5, 43.5

Philadelphia at San Diego 4:15E FOX

One week after getting help from San Diego, the Eagles face the Chargers, some 3000 miles across the country. Philadelphia (5-3 ATS) wasn’t able to fully capitalize on the Giants falling, losing to Dallas and surrendering the NFC East lead. Now, at 5-3, the schedule really turns on HC Andy Reid’s team, with four road games in the next five weeks, all against playoff contending teams. Fortunately, Philly is 33-15 ATS as a road underdog under Reid, and 30-17 ATS vs. good offensive teams gaining 350 yards per game or more. This will be Reid’s first ever trip to San Diego with the Eagles. The Chargers (3-5 ATS) are also 5-3 after last week’s one-point win in New York, and face another date with Denver following this tilt. Under Norv Turner, they are 3-6 ATS vs. the NFC, 2-2 SU and ATS at home.

Keys to the Game –

For coach Reid’s presumed genius on offense, he’s had a couple stinky showings this season. Last week, he earned F’s in trying to get the ball to his most threatening weapon DeSean Jackson, who had two catches for 29 yards. Run receiver screens, put him motion, just finds ways for Jackson to touch the ball, he’s a quick six waiting to happen. The San Diego run defense has improved the last month, however is still 26th overall. Test the middle with running game. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons, in part due to fast starts. This is a team with deficiencies in tight games (1-8-1 SU in their past 10 games decided by seven points or less, 1-9 ATS) and has to score early and keep adding.

It is not a coincidence that the improved health of Shawne Merriman has helped the defense. In their last four games, the San Diego defense has surrendered 144.5 yards per game via the pass (Oakland helped a great deal), best in the NFL, jumping them to fourth overall. That matter against Philadelphia since the Chargers are stellar at the corners and improving at safety and they have benefitted with increased pressure on opposing QB’s. This game is worth viewing just because the Eagles bring continual blitzes and Philip Rivers throws the deepest routes in the league. Who wins this battle could decide winner. Bolts feed on emotion and are 12-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins since 2007.

3DWLine – Philadelphia by 1.5
Bookmaker.com Line – San Diego -1, 47

Dallas at Green Bay 4:15E FOX

When Brett Favre was with the Packers, they struggled vs. the Cowboys in Dallas. At home though, it was a much different story. In fact, in the overall series, home teams owned a 9-0 SU and ATS edge from 1994 to 2007. Still, the home opportunities were few and far between for Green Bay. Now, with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the 4-4 SU and ATS Packers will be looking to avenge a loss when they host Dallas for the second straight year. The Cowboys (5-3 ATS) won the 2008 game, 27-16, manhandling the Packers defensive front for 217 yards rushing. They are atop the NFC East at 6-2 after winning at Philly. Green Bay is 2-4 vs. NFC East foes under Mike McCarthy, while the Cowboys are 3-19 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. Ten of the last 12 overall meetings between these teams went OVER the total.

Keys to the Game-

If Dallas can win first down on defense, they are on their way to seventh win of the season. The Green Bay offensive line can’t protect Rodgers and second year starter hangs on to the ball like it’s a good luck charm. The Green Bay run defense is ninth (91.1 YPG), but it is better when teams try to run wide. Pound away at the middle with Marion Barber, than work him and others outside. The Cowboys are 9-4 ATS as favorites and they will improve that record if they do better than .500 on possessions inside the red zone that leads to touchdowns and not field goals.

Barber is still recovering from quad injury and has lacked burst. Green Bay’s defense has to make him take a step east or west to reduce his effectiveness. Rodgers has to use his University of California education and start being smarter in releasing the ball quicker. The Dallas defense doesn’t like being on the field, throw underneath stuff to move the chains and utilize Ryan Grant in the one-cut and drive running game. The Pack is 10-1 ATS in home games vs. teams outscoring opponents by six or more points per game in the second half of the season. They have two winnable games after this and will have extended rest before Monday home game against Baltimore. A win vs. Dallas could start three-game winning and who knows.

3DW Line – Dallas by 5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -3, 47.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.