Halloween Adventure

Nothing spooky or scary about today’s picks. The Top Trend is in the Big 12 and involves a team that doesn’t play well against good defensive teams. The Best System out there is 88.5 percent and on an unlikely team. The Free Play is from the ACC, from a LCC member who is 12-3 in CFB the last two weeks. Good Luck

NEW Feature: New Poll Question at the bottom of page.

What I thought yesterday – I knew I could count on Bill Stewart of West Virginia to lose last night. He’s becoming one of my favorite play against coaches in college football.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON A home team off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 40-49 percent on the season. Teams like San Diego State are 23-3 ATS in this exact spot.

Free Football Trend-2) The Baylor Bears are 1-11 ATS in home games versus excellent defensive teams allowing 4.25 or fewer yards per play.

Free Football Pick -3) Bill of the Left Coast Connection has Georgia Tech running to a spread cover.

Paul Buck Guaranteed CFB Winner Saturday! Tired of losing, join in on the winning parade.

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Trick or Treat CFB Wagering

The last day of wagering on college student-athletes in October is here and it could either be a ghoulish experience or one that fills your bag with plenty of treats (cash). Some of the costumes for the World’s Largest Cocktail Party should be enjoyable and will Tim Tebow get the Florida offense back on track against rival Georgia. Oklahoma State and Oregon are both home and with upset victories, can change the order of power in the BCS standings below the top two. Virginia Tech’s loss gives Miami a chance to still win the ACC Coastal and they travel to Wake Forest off disappointing overtime defeat. If Central Michigan can trick Boston College, they gain stature for themselves as well as the MAC. Here’s hoping your bag is stuffed with goodies. Numbers courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Florida (-14.5, 48) vs. Georgia 3:30E CBS

Though this year’s World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail party won’t carry the same panache as the last couple, it is no less important to its participants. Florida (7-0. 3-3 ATS) is ranked first in the BCS and doesn’t have the same offensive power of a year ago. Even after supplying misfortune on Mississippi State 29-19, coach Urban Meyer is far from pleased. “We kind of operate around here on urgency. That’s not something we’re ashamed of,” Meyer said recently. “We’re not playing perfect, and there are times we’re not playing very good at all,” Meyer elaborated. “We’re not on the same planet statistically as last year. I’m not happy where we are at right now.” Fortunately, Meyer and Florida can fall back on a superb stop unit that leads the SEC in about every statistic and is the best nationally in total defense. Under coach Meyer, the Gators are 12-1 (7-5-1 ATS) against their so-called Big Three opponents, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida State. Florida is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Two years ago, coach Mark Richt used a little chicanery to fire up his Georgia (4-3, 2-5 ATS) squad and it worked with 42-30 upset as touchdown underdogs. He might need something even crazier, since nobody will compare this Bulldogs team talent-wise to that club. After falling to LSU and Tennessee, coach Richt went back to basics and it paid off against Vanderbilt with 34-10 road win. The Bulldogs were crisper offensively than they had been since Arkansas contest. The offensive line fired off the ball and offensive coordinator Mike Bobo left the press box to be more involved with QB Joe Cox. Georgia is 10-5-1 ATS in neutral site contests against ranked teams the last decade and 17-6 ATS away from home after a bye week.

Florida is 16-3 and 12-6-1 ATS the last 19 years in this match, with the favorite 2-5-1 against the number. The SU winner is 23-3-1 ATS since 1982 in this rivalry.

3DW Line -Florida by 13

Central Michigan (+5.5, 50.5) at Boston College 3:30E ESPNU

Both teams have three conference games remaining and are true contenders to play in respective league championship tilts. They take time out from strenuous slate and meet in an engaging nonconference contest.

Central Michigan (7-1, 6-1 ATS) is atop of the MAC West standings, going after third league title in four years. It was actually an opening game visit by Boston College in 2006 that turned the Chippewas fortunes. Starting quarterback Brian Brunner was injured on the second play of the game and a plucky freshman named Dan LeFevour came in and battled the Eagles in 31-24 loss as 11-point home underdogs. That set the program is a winning direction and it hasn’t stopped yet. Central Michigan is 7-0 (5-1 ATS) since opening loss at Arizona 19-6. What coach Butch Jones hopes to conceal is secondary that can be beaten by accurate thrower. The Chippewas are 11-13-1 ATS as road underdogs the since 2003, but 5-1 ATS the last two years. Additionally, Central Michigan is 8-1 ATS in road games after playing on the road over the last three seasons.

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Boston College (5-3, 5-2 ATS) losing their head coach after strife with university. The Eagles gave the head coaching job to Frank Spaziani out of loyalty and necessity. The long time assistant figured to have .500 season at best, instead he built resilient squad. A dismal loss at Clemson was followed up with home win over Wake Forest. A Virginia Tech 48-14 thrashing led to nailing N.C. State 52-20, as running back Montel Harris rushed for 264 yards. B.C.’s five turnovers cost them win at South Bend last Saturday and the Eagles are 5-9-1 ATS since 1992 after Notre Dame.

Boston College is 8-0 and 5-2-1 ATS against MAC teams and Central Michigan is 1-7-1 ATS facing non-Big Ten BCS schools on the road. The Chippewas are 11-0 UNDER after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last outing.

3DW Line – Boston College by 5.5

Miami (-7, 51) at Wake Forest 3:30E ABC/ESPN2

Miami (5-2, 4-3 ATS) plays their second ACC road contest of the season in Winston-Salem against Wake Forest. The Hurricanes survived the most arduous schedule to start the season among the 120 FBS schools and has their sights set on ACC Coastal crown. Quarterback Jacory Harris continues to be one of the best distributors of the pigskin (29th nationally), hitting seven or more receivers most outings. The defense is improving, as younger players like linebacker Sean Spence (now doubtful) and strong safety Ray Ray Armstrong gain experience and confidence. The biggest weakness all season for Miami has been the special teams that continually have breakdowns, leaving the Canes on the losing end of field position swaps. Miami has covered last five of six October assignments and are 18-7 ATS when they score 29 to 35 points.

Wake Forest (4-4, 2-5 ATS) will at least be home for this daunting task. The Demon Deacons still have faint hopes of winning a second ACC Atlantic title and figure to have to win out even to have a chance. Wake Forest is also seeking a fourth consecutive winning season under coach Jim Grobe, with the one constant besides the coach being signal caller Riley Skinner. The fortunes of the Deacons are on the right arm of the senior quarterback. When he has time to throw or rollout, Wake Forest easily can score close to or over 30 points. But when Skinner is pressured and scrambling for his life and receivers stand flat-footed watching, the 13 points totaled in losses to Clemson and Navy is not unexpected. The Demon Deacons are 7-4 ATS off non-ACC action.

Since Miami joined the ACC, the Hurricanes are 3-0 SU and ATS against Wake Forest. The official line could carry a lot of weight with the Deacons 7-2 ATS as home underdog to a ranked opponent .

3DWLine – Miami by 2.5

Michigan State (-3.5, 46) at Minnesota 8:00 BTN

After the stomach-turning 15-13 loss to Iowa on the last play, Michigan State (4-4, 3-4 ATS) is playing for second place in the Big Ten and Capitol One Bowl bid. The Spartans have just three remaining conference clashes and was lucky to bypass Ohio State this season. They will take on Penn State at home, which could be very important contest as the season plays out. First up is Minnesota and Michigan State is 3-5 and 2-6 ATS against the Golden Gophers. Coach Mark Dantonio is blessed having two quarterbacks that can really play and with both being injured at various points, the other has stepped in and played admirably. Michigan State is 12-3 ATS after scoring and allowing 17 or less points.

Minnesota (4-4, 3-5 ATS) is off successive taxing road bouts at Penn State and Ohio State and is seeking to return to winners circle. The Gophers offense has been fluctuating all season between fair and bad, with the latter more prevalent lately. Quarterback Adam Weber has not succeeded without a running game (last in Big Ten) and opponents have double-teamed star receiver Eric Decker, choking off offensive production. The offensive line never gelled, which focused greater attention on the two Minnesota playmakers. Now with Decker out, the situation becomes even dicier. This has led Minnesota backers to fustigate, wondering when 6-foot-4 freshman quarterback MarQueis Gray starts seeing extended playing time. With Michigan State conceding just 3.1 yards per carry, the Golden Gophers are 4-13 ATS in home games versus rushing defenses allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards a try.

These teams have not played since 2006 and Minnesota is 8-16 ATS as single digit Big Ten underdog. Prior to the Gophers winning and covering as favorites in 2005-06, the underdog had been 6-0 ATS. Michigan State will give undivided attention, with only Western Michigan from the MAC next foe. The Spartans have collected handsomely with 8-3 ATS Big Ten road record.

3DWLine – Michigan State by 3

Texas (-9.5, 53) at Oklahoma State 8:00E ABC/GP

It has been a different year in the Big 12, especially compared to last season. All the offensive fireworks and exceptional individual performances have been replaced by injuries to key players and many of the same player’s just off-kilter. Among them is quarterback Colt McCoy, who keeps being reported in Longhorn blogs as ready to have sensational performance (finally against Missouri he did). While he certainly could break loose the rest of the year, this is different Texas (7-0, 2-4-1 ATS) team. McCoy, like many quarterbacks that came into the season with high expectations, has played with less abandon, carrying the weight of the team. Again, no real running game has emerged (5th in Big 12) and defensive coaches have made a concerted effort not to let McCoy run loose out of the pocket. Fortunately, the Texas defense has been a constant all year (No.2 in total defense) and it might well be that side of the ball that carries the Longhorns to Big 12 title and possibly other areas in 2009. Texas is 6-2 ATS in the second of two true road games and the Horns are 29-12 ATS off a road win against a conference rival.

Oklahoma State (6-1, 4-2-1 ATS) is another Big 12 team that hasn’t been right all year. The Cowboys offense doesn’t appear to be that different, scoring 37 points per game compared to 40.8 in 2008. However the Okie State power trio has not been together. Running back Kendall Hunter is still nursing an ankle/foot injury and wide receiver Dez Bryant has been suspended by the NCAA. This has left the burden on quarterback Zac Robinson, who struggled in the early part of the year, but has been sharp since October started. Oklahoma State can’t continue to be the most penalized team in the country (9.4 per game as press time) if they want to be a true national power. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS after three or more consecutive straight up wins over the last two seasons.

This is Oklahoma State’s chance to steal the thunder. If they can upset Texas, the world will be looking in on Stillwater and if would win out in the Big 12, they are the South Division champs. History is not on their side, with the Cowboys are 0-10 and 3-6-1 ATS against Texas and 4-19 and 6-15-2 ATS against ranked teams.

3DW Line – Texas by 5

USC (-3, 47) at Oregon 8:00E ABC/GP

The Oregon Ducks (6-1, 5-2 ATS) have rare opportunity in the Pac-10 since Pete Carroll took over as the USC head coach. With a win, Oregon controls their destiny. Besides the fact of being at home, the Ducks defense has been something to quack about. After a lumbering start (27.3PPG in first three contests), coach Chip Kelly’s defense has permitted just 38 points in their last four outings and is second in the Pac-10 in points allowed (16.7) and 19th in the country in yards allowed (297.1). In order to beat USC, the defense has to limit big plays and make the Trojans score field goals. Creating seams for freshman RB LaMichael James is imperative, since that opens up passing lanes for QB Jeremiah Masoli. The Ducks signal caller has to play under control and contain emotions. His accuracy as a passer will be every bit as important as what he does with his legs. Oregon is 23-10 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging eight or more passing yards per attempt.

The Trojans (6-1, 2-5 ATS) took care of one Oregon state university last week 42-36 and goes for the sweep in Eugene. It is starting to look like the movie “Groundhog” with USC gathering steam as November approaches. The defense is one of the finest in the country, though shaky against the pass the last two weeks in allowing 614 yards. USC coaches are opening the playbook more each week as quarterback Matt Barkley’s confidence soars. Look for USC to pressure Oregon with its relentless pass rushers and All-American safety Taylor Mays to take away Masoli’s favorite target TE Ed Dickson. USC is 9-4 ATS in the first of two road games.

This is Oregon’s time and they know, but how will they perform against USC team built for these moments? Oregon is 5-10 ATS vs. USC in last 15 meetings, with the favorite having covered seven of last eight. The road team is 8-4 ATS since 1993.

3DW Line - Oregon by 5.5

Backing West Virginia Takes Courage

Before the season, the Big East Conference figured to be one of the most competitive in the country and that is holding true heading into the last weekend of October. West Virginia, as expected has held up well with 6-1 record (2-4 ATS). Like all teams, the Mountaineers have had to deal with adversity. Six turnovers cost them a win at Auburn and quarterback Jarrett Brown suffered a mild concussion on West Virginia’s fourth offensive play and left the game against in-state rival Marshall, which meant true freshman backup Geno Smith had to step in and guide team to 24-7 win.

As the Mountaineers have distanced themselves from the option offense, receivers like Jock Sanders have seen more throws. Running back Noel Devine might not be seeing as many chances to get wide; however the running lanes are still there for the speedy back, as the Mountaineers are second in the conference in total offense at 420.9 yards per game. West Virginia’s run defense is one of the best (10th overall) in allowing 2.8 yards per carry. The ‘Teers are 12-3 and 11-4 ATS on the Big East road the last five years.

Under coach Bill Stewart wins are likely, however spread covers not so much. The always smiling Stewart is 16-5 SU with 7-12 ATS record.

This is the last of brutish three-game stretch for South Florida (5-2, 2-3 ATS), after taking on conference partner’s Cincinnati and Pittsburgh and losing to each of them. The Bulls have been running the ball effectively (177.7 yards per game) on a couple of fronts, with quarterback B.J. Daniels scampering on predetermined and not so predetermined runs. The normal aspect of the running game has worked with a trio of running backs all displaying different skills.

One conundrum South Florida has to change if they want to really be a true Big East contender, quit taking all the penalties (over nine per game). Against lesser competition they have the talent to overcome them. But when looking in the mirror talent-wise, this is real shortcoming for team that is 3-11 ATS vs. teams with winning records.

South Florida is known for having talented defensive linemen like George Selvie, yet has allowed over 175 yards rushing in four of seven games, suggesting a lack of discipline up front and linebackers not able to stay free and make tackles. After Pittsburgh pasted them for 214 yards on the ground in 41-14 thumping, the Bulls are 1-4 ATS after permitting 200 or more yards rushing.

DiamondSportsbook.com has West Virginia as three-point road favorite, with total of 48. South Florida is 3-1 ATS vs. West Virginia with outright upsets in 2006-07. To forecast the Mountaineers performance, a Magic 8 ball comes in handy. Does the West Virginia team with 19-7 ATS record in October road games show up or the one that is 1-8 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better make appearance.

ESPN2 will have this Big East battle and watch the total, with average score 35 combined points in the four meetings.

Thursday's Top Tips

We had two more winners yesterday and hopefully can pick up a couple more. Kendall has today’s Free Pick and the Top Trend is on the ice with 11-2 record. No systems of note, thus we look to CFB on Saturday in the Big 12 with 88.5 percent Best System. Good Luck

NEW Feature: New Poll Question at the bottom of page.

What I thought yesterday – I don’t recall seeing a pitcher so in the zone like Cliff Lee, who was oblivious to what was going on around him. Lee in baseball vernacular had plus-plus stuff all night long, he was virtually untouchable. Yankees better win tonight or the party is over.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Kansas, in a game involving two explosive offensive teams averaging 34 or more points per game, in a conference encounter. This system checks in at 23-3 ATS, 88.5 percent since 1992.

Free Hockey Trend-2) The Vancouver Canucks are 11-2 (+12.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the first half of the year over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Kendall looks for another winner and takes Virginia Tech as -15.5.

Paul Buck Guaranteed CFB Winner Thursday! Tired of losing, join in on the winning parade.

The Platinum Sheet is selling out weekly the at Gambler’s Book Store in Las Vegas.

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Sports Bettor makes Virginia Tech call

The calendar shows Virginia Tech on Thursday night, this can mean only one thing, time to make mucho dinero. (Sorry for Bob Griese reference) If you are a serious sports bettor like me, you know the Hokies are more golden than shakin’ down friends and family for old gold jewelry to profit from. (Frank) Beamer’s boys are 14-3 against the evil empire the last 11 years.

It’s understandable a few of you might be a little skitterish about laying 16.5 (at Bookmaker.com) on Virginia Tech, after watching them get plowed under for 309 yards by Georgia Tech and North Carolina stepping on Florida state for a cool 238 last week, not to worry friends, the ol Red-man will not steer you wrong.

How can I be so sure? Comparing the Yellow Jackets option offense to North Carolina’s running game is like comparing to Erin Andrews to Chastity Bono. GT is second in the country running the ball and the Tar Heels are 86th even after crossing the 200-yard barrier.

North Carolina players still have to be lower than my latest 401K update, blowing 24-6 third quarter lead near the Dean Dome last Thursday. The Tar Heels actually do have decent defensive talent and have held all teams not named Georgia Tech and Florida State to 17 points or less. I have to question how much they are going to want to play before a geeked Virginia Tech crowd, especially if the offense plays to norm, meaning 115th in FBS land. I like fishing as much as the next guy, but I’m not taking the bait UNC is for real, besides they are 1-7 ATS after gaining 200 or more yards rushing the pigskin.

Frank Beamer has had a few extra days to coach up his downtrodden team since being stung by Yellow Jackets. Defensive coordinator Bud Foster probably led the Hokies in tackles in practice since their last contest, showing his defensive guys it’s OK to tackle somebody REALLY HARD in practice and in games. Anything less than max effort from the defense would be a bigger shock than Andre Agassi's revelation. The Beamer’s are 12-6 ATS off a bye week and 7-2 against oddsmakers if opponent has positive record.

Quarterback Tyrod Taylor doesn’t throw the ball like Jimmy Clausen, nonetheless is improving passer and has been sharp after so-so passing games. What I like about Beamer, he’ll having his team find out right away what kind mood and effort North Carolina is likely to provide, running the ball right at them, throwing deep balls and trying to scare the devil out of Heels chucker T.J. Yates, with continual blitzes. Reports out of Chapel Hill have Yates being chased out of Franklin Street establishments for making holes in the wall on errant dart throws, despite no oncoming pass rushers.

With North Carolina one of the six worst offenses in the country and already 0-5 (2-3 ATS) against Virginia Tech since they’ve joined the Atlantic Coast Conference five years ago, take the Hokies to start a fun-filled Halloween weekend 34-10 and cover convincingly.

Red Wydley wrote this ACC Thursday matchup.

Phils fast start has Yankees in trouble

The New York Yankees were left UT-terly dumfounded in Game 1 of the World Series. Chase Utley battled C.C. Sabathia in two at bats, following off strikes until the lefthander got just a bit too much of the plate and rifled two shots over the right field wall. Cliff Lee did the rest, in stifling New York on one run and six hits for complete game gem, which included 10 strikeouts and zero walks. Lee was seemingly in his own world on the mound with a pair of unusual fielding plays that he was almost flippant about.

New York hitters had nary a clue what to do with Lee and they hope to have much better success against Pedro Martinez or their suddenly dwindling chances of winning the Fall Classic will take another severe hit. What’s the big deal about losing the first game? The winner of Game 1 of the World Series has won seven straight World Series, 11 of the last 12 and 12 of 14 with the introduction of the wild card teams.

A.J. Burnett will be asked to do his best Lee-imitation. In his first season in the Pinstripes, Burnett is 13-9 with a 4.04 ERA and has not picked up a decision in the postseason with two decent starts and one pretty good beating. The concern for manager Joe Girardi is Burnett’s command. After posting an almost 2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio during the regular season, the former Florida Marlin has 13 K’s and 10 W’s in three playoff appearances. Bookmaker.com has New York has -200 favorite with total of Un9 and the Yankees have won 11 of 13 in this spot with Burnett on the hill at home.

Doubts were expressed about Philadelphia feeling any pressure, being the defending champions. The numbers said the Phillies were underdogs coming into the series, which just added another log on the fire. No home field advantage for the second straight year, having the best road record in baseball at 52-34 takes care of that.

Pedro Martinez will attempt to squeeze what is left out of his right arm. Martinez is 5-1 with a 3.63 ERA since joining the Phillies and pitched seven shutout innings against the Dodgers in 2-1 loss that the bullpen gave away.

Philadelphia has owned October and will attempt to do same in November as they are 19-5 in the postseason the last two years and 27-11 after allowing four runs or less four straight games.

Coming into the series, two elements were deemed very important in determining the outcome. Who could jack the most balls over the wall from these power-laden clubs would affect the outcome and Chase Utley answered that one. Also, getting the starting pitchers out of the game and see how the relief pitchers would perform. What chance New York had late in the game was swept out to the Hudson River, with the Yanks pen rocked for four runs in the last two innings.
FOX has Game 2 beginning at 7:55 Eastern and the last five meetings between these teams in New York have produced five Unders.

Time for a Wheedling Wednesday

Glad to be on the correct side of East Carolina twice last night. Have a Top Trend in the NBA and free play on the way. Looking ahead to Sunday, have a wicked 83.3 percent totals system in the NFL. Good Luck

NEW Feature: New Poll Question at the bottom of page.

What learned yesterday – In seven games, the Oklahoma Sooners have allowed one total yard in punt returns all season.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY UNDER on any team against the total after beating the spread by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, playing in November. By this time of year, consecutive strong ATS efforts mean the offense overachieved or the defense is playing great, thus the reason why this system is 25-5 the last 25 years. Arizona is the Under play.

Free Basketball Trend-2) I’ll throw this out there, however not sure what it means this early. The Boston Celtics are 17-5 AT after a win by six points or less.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kendall of the LCC has a long history of NBA success and is on San Antonio tonight.

Paul Buck Guaranteed CFB Winner Thursday! Tired of losing, join in on the winning parade.

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Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror in the NFL

If you were one of the sports bettors who had Carolina at -7 at home against Buffalo last Sunday, you were robbed. No it wasn’t by the oddsmaker and it wasn’t by Jake Delhomme (though he played a strong supporting role), it was the Carolina kicker John Kasay.

As advanced steps have been taken to analyze sports, one not given nearly enough credit is lost opportunities and how they relate to future results. My guess as to why this has never taken a strong foothold is because a lot can sound like whining depending on the story-teller and today’s world tends to be more results oriented, leaving less room for conjecture.

The Carolina Panthers were moving the ball up and down the field but stalling when they needed to punch the ball in the end zone. Kasay had two field goal opportunities in the first half against the Bills from very makeable distances of 43 and 39 yards respectively and he missed both. Where his misses altered the course game was in the last five minutes of the third quarter. Another Carolina drive was stalling at the 16-yard line of Buffalo, with the Bills ahead 7-2. Despite Kasay’s long history of success, coach John Fox was displeased with his accuracy on this day and decided to pass on 33-yard attempt and went on fourth down and about four feet. Carolina was stuffed at the point of attack and lost the ball on downs, trailing by the same score, in spite of 16-4 first down dominance.

That was essentially the game as the Bills took advantage of Delhomme interceptions and scored the next 10 points to build commanding 17-2 lead.

Kasay’s two misses changed everything. If he makes both field goals, the Panthers lead 8-7 and assuredly a normally conservative coach Fox kicks the field goal, giving Carolina an 11-7 lead and Buffalo now needs a touchdown from backup Ryan Fitzgerald, which based on final tally of total yards (425-167 Panthers) seems unlikely. Of course there is no way to know, but based on the pace of the game, Carolina at worst would have kicked another field goal (for a push) or possibly would have tallied a touchdown for the winner. A kicker’s inability to put the ball between the uprights cost his team and Carolina backers a victory.

Cross off New Orleans as a team that can’t overcome serious adversity. Whatever was possible for undefeated team playing a flat game against rested opponent on the road to go wrong did for the Saints. Drew Brees was sacked, hurried and intercepted, as New Orleans fell behind 24-3, but they never gave up and for the third time already this season, the Miami defense faltered in the second half and lost for a second time in three attempts. The Saints aren’t going 16-0, but with each passing week it looks like the road thru the NFC to the Super Bowl goes thru New Orleans.

If you have Direct TV, you saw a month’s worth of bad football this past week on the NFL package. The average winning margin for week seven was just over 20 points per game which has to approach some record. What is going to be really hard on NFL bettors is when these awful teams start meeting each other with nothing to play for, whom to you choose.

Know your Numbers- The current disparity in the NFL is shown by the fact teams with winning records playing teams with losing records are 14-7 ATS since week 4. –A couple of years ago the StatFox Edge Football Annual ran an article about Yards Per Points Scored. The basic premise was to Play On the Top 5 teams and Play Against the bottom five teams on a weekly basis. Thus far the Top 5 is 8-5-1 ATS and the bottom five is 6-12 ATS. (Teams in same group playing each other are not counted) If a matchup has a crossover from each group, the better team is 3-0 ATS thus far.—Favorites ended up 9-3-1 ATS last week, giving them 56-46-1 ATS record on the season. A sportsbook operator on the Vegas Strip I spoke to said the bean-counters were not going to be happy, as teams like Indianapolis, Green Bay, New England and the New York Jets not only were heavily bet straight up, but were in various parlay and teasers that won, making it a one of the worst Sunday’s in the NFL in recent memory for Las Vegas sportsbooks.

Tuesday Tilts

Well after a semi-day off, we come back today with a 1-0 record and surprisingly Brandon Lange missed his MNF total (not). The Top Trend and Best System are related to tonight’s C-USA matchup. Ken is brimming with confidence on his latest hot streak and picks a NBA winner on opening night. Good Luck

NEW Feature: New Poll Question at the bottom of page.

What I thought last yesterday –How much Jon Gruden adds to the Monday Night football telecast. He’s insightful, even on obvious plays. He brings a great deal of enthusiasm without being over the top and brings out the best of Ron Jaworski when they feed off each other. You agree or disagree?

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like East Carolina, who are average passing team -175-230 YPG- against an average passing defense -175-230 YPG- after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. This non-qualifying system is 41-11, 78.8 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) The ECU Pirates are 11-1 ATS against Memphis.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Ken nailed winner yesterday and likes Cleveland in home opener at -5.

Guaranteed CFB Winner Today!

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Answers to College Football Questions

While perusing a variety of forums, one common theme found is people have questions and can’t always get the answers they are looking for. This spawned an idea that possibly a number of people have the same or similar questions and we could answer them effectively and efficiently. Let’s not mess around and get to them.

Is it a good idea to bet on heavy college football favorites?

To properly answer this question, it must be determined what a heavy favorite is. For the sake of simplicity, we’ll say favorites of 10 or more points are the dividing line. The standard deviation for home field advantage is 3.7 to 3.8 depending on the year and encompassing all 120 FBS universities. That would mean any home team is roughly six points better than their opposition if playing at home and favored by 10 points. If a team is 10-point road favorite, they would 14 points better (14-4=10) on a neutral field.

Betting large favorites is purely a losing proposition in looking at all games that fit criteria.

ATS Record
2009 - 90-92, 49.4 percent
2008 – 97-103, 48 percent
2007 – 107-122, 46.7 percent
2006 – 115-125, 47.9 percent

This does not include the vig on each wager lost. It’s clearly not a huge losing proposition, but certainly not a good one. Playing these teams as underdog’s is not a good a great wager either (51.9 percent). It’s best to be selective and keep detailed records over a period of time to find out if you have a particular skill in uncovering what side you should be on in games with larger spreads.

Is it better to play sides or totals in college football?

Without a doubt, totals is the way to go, but only if you spend the time to study and know your numbers. Most people bet sides, which the oddsmakers are completely understand. They will always post the sides first, since this leads to immediate action and they can start making a dollar for every 11/10 wager on losers’ vs winners. After the sides have been processed, the totals will typically be released a day later. Because the focus is on the meat and potatoes product (sides), totals releases will often have money limits on bets, since sharps are like circling vultures, looking to pound bad numbers. An indication of what I mean is found in two places. Early line moves on college totals this season (three points or more by Wednesday morning) are 36-21, 63.1 percent and totals that end three or points different than starting number are jaw-dropping 97-50, 65.9 percent.

I’m an old school bettor, does betting on teams that have covered or failed to cover three in a row still hold up?

For probably more than a decade, this was a safe and convenient play for the bettor that needed a quick fix. A team that had covered the spread three consecutive times was set for downfall and was a solid Play Against team in the 54-60 percent range. Teams that had failed to cover for three consecutive games were a quality bet ranging from 55 to 63 percent. These days, not so much. (Numbers based on three continuous games, no bye weeks)

3ATS Wins
2008 24-25
2007 21-22
2006 30-27
2005 34-32

3ATS Losses
2008 21-28
2007 26-25
2006 16-33
2005 29-28

The one angle that has offered the most hope is playing against teams failing to cover a trio of oddsmakers numbers. Thus far in 2009, three-time spread winners are 12-11 ATS and three-time losers are 14-9 ATS in next encounter.

All my buddies tell me they win at parlays, but everything I read says to stay away from them. Should I be playing three-team parlays and what are my chances of winning?
The basic reason one would make a parlay wager is obvious, the payout is higher than a straight bet, and parlays offer the potential for a big payoff from a smaller wager.

Typical payoffs for winning parlays are as follows:

# of games --Payout

2--13 to 5

3--6 to 1

4 --10 to 1

5 --20 to 1

Using these numbers, making three straight bets of $110 each would pay $300 profit if all three games won. With a three team parlay, one wager of $100 and winning all three games would show a profit of $600. Sounds great but here is the sticky part.

A point spread is intended to make any contest a 50-50 proposition. The true odds of winning a three-team parlay against the point spread are 7-1. As shown above, the value derived of winning is 6-1, which any wagering analyst or professional sports bettor would explain are poor odds in one’s favor.

The other negative is you could win two of three bets in the parlay wager and lose $100, as compared to showing a profit of $90 by make three straight wagers at 11/10 and winning twice.

It’s a foregone conclusion the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game most of the time. How does anyone predict who will win the turnovers in order to make money betting?

If it were only that simple. Start with the idea at this juncture of the season, teams that commit a lot of turnovers will probably continue to do so and teams that take care of the ball likely will. The largest deviation from year to year in turnovers is fumbles. A fumble is a random event, once the ball is on the ground, it’s roughly 50-50 what team will fall on it. Much like in baseball winning one run games, fumbles are cyclical events. Some teams are better at forcing them through training and technique; however that doesn’t mean they will land on them every time. From year to year, sometimes you get the breaks and other times you don’t.

One aspect that has the potential to profit from is those teams that commit five or more turnovers and what they do against the spread in the next game. In the last three years including this season, these squads are 73-52 ATS, 58.4 percent. This makes sense as coaches emphasize the importance of ball security after a turnover prone game and the squad comes through a winner.

How do I win betting college football?

Start with the old joke, the quickest way to have $1,000 dollars betting on sports is starting with $2,000. But seriously, each person needs to find their own method. Analytical handicapping is the most full proof in my opinion, as you are dealing with facts. At this point of the season, there is ample information to study from. Knowing how teams do running and passing the ball as well as stopping both tells a compelling story. Within this area is other information to understand.

A team might average 400 yards total offense, yet the opponents they have faced might allow 395 yards per game, which leads to the conclusion this is ordinary offensive team that could struggle against very good defensive club. This creates opportunity to play against such a team.

Situational handicapping is crucial to understand. UTEP is probably the best example of 2009. The Miners have played at home as underdogs versus Houston and Tulsa right after they faced big emotional contests at home. Each team lacked the spark needed to play against hungry opponent and lost outright to UTEP. The Miners were also caught in the same dilemma. After upsetting the Cougars, they went on the road to Memphis, TN as 1.5-point favorites and were drilled by less than menacing Memphis Tigers 35-20.

A number of wise sports bettors place little or no value in trends. I would say it is not a large component to consider, but in college football there are a number of peculiar angles that win year after year and have to be in the mix of information.

Being analytical and using situational handicapping builds winners.

Pirates at Tigers Game Matchup

It hasn’t been quite the season East Carolina envisioned; however a victory at Memphis keeps them on track to defend their title as Conference USA champions. The Pirates (4-3, 2-4 ATS) are tied for first place in the East Division with Marshall and Southern Miss at 3-1 and take control, at least for the time being with a win.

East Carolina hopes their 49 points against Rice has them going in the right direction offensively, since they rank fifth in points scored (25.1) and are eighth in total offense (329.9) in the league. Quarterback Patrick Pinkney has been uneven performer all season in terms of passing. Despite a veteran offensive line, East Carolina has averaged just 3.7 yards per carry against opponents allowing 4.1. The Pirates are only 1-3 SU as visitors this season and 2-9 ATS in road games over the last two seasons.

Memphis (2-5, SU&ATS) has moved the ball better than the number of points they’ve scored on the season and will need to improve that situation promptly with daunting slate the rest of the year. The Tigers rank sixth in total offense in C-USA play, however are merely ninth in scoring at 21.4 points per game.

Quarterback injuries and ineffectiveness have again limited what coach Tommy West would like to do at Memphis. A great example of moving the ball without scoring was last contest against Southern Miss. In spite of 425-360 edge in total yards, Memphis lost 36-16 as 14.5-point underdogs. The Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in non-Saturday games.

Bookmaker.com has East Carolina as four-point road favorites, despite 0-6 ATS mark in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons. The Pirates will look to force miscues and are in the Top 20 in turnovers forced with 17. They will need to be consistent on offense and keep tallying scores since Memphis red zone defense is laughable, with opposing teams have scored 25 of 27 trips.

For the Tigers, it’s about scoring touchdowns and ringing up 30 or more points. If Memphis can reach 30-point plateau, they are 8-3 ATS. That means passing and running the ball effectively. They are 0-6 ATS when they rush for 100 to 150 yards over the last two seasons. Memphis has struggled mightily with East Carolina, with 4-8 SU record and 1-11 ATS, failing to cover last seven in a row.

Coach Skip Holtz has his father Lou in town, along with Rece Davis and Mark May to do the game on ESPN2 at 8 Eastern. With Memphis still having road games at Tennessee, at Houston and at Tulsa, this might be a conference game to give sharp effort and they are 8-1 ATS after Southern Miss and 8-4 ATS as home underdogs under coach West.

World Series Preview

Most any year, the New York Yankees being in the Fall Classic automatically makes it special. Whether you love them or hate, the team in the pinstripes is an attention-getter as 26-time World Series champions. Because of their success, New York fans believe they should be in the World Series every year, however as long-time Yankees Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada would explain, wearing the uniform doesn’t guarantee you make it this far, let alone win as they have failed to do in last two trips.

New York is favored to win another title, which doesn’t mean anything to the defending World Series champion Phillies, who are attempting to be first repeat champions since the 1999-2000 Yankees. Some teams are intimidated by the Yankees uniforms; don’t expect it to be Philadelphia, who has proven to be a deserving champion.

Pitching counts in the postseason and so does power. New York was the top home run hitting team in the big leagues with 244 and Philadelphia was the best in the National League at 224. Both teams play in homer-friendly parks, which were the top two in home runs allowed. The last time the two top hitting home run teams collided was 1926.

For those that prefer top quality pitching, it hardly gets better than Game 1 of the series. C.C. Sabathia is 12-1 since August (Yankees 14-1 in his starts) and has sick 1.19 ERA in three postseason starts. Sabathia will face someone who dressed in the same locker room as him just 16 months ago in Cliff Lee. The other former Cleveland Indian is 12-4 since July 16, and has an even lower ERA in his three postseason starts at 0.74. Both teams better start swinging from the start, as each pitcher has 20 strikeouts and three walks in the playoffs. This will be just the sixth time in World Series history, two former Cy Young winners faceoff.

For history buffs this from Jayson Stark of ESPN. Philadelphia is attempting to be just the third National League team in the last century to win back-to-back World Series, both previous teams to do so defeated the Yankees. It should also be reported five others tried and failed. These teams last met in the World Series 59 years ago. This is the third time since MLB went to division play that the defending champs faced the team with the best record in baseball, both times the champions went on to win again.

Nuts and Bolts- Philadelphia has been the best team in baseball on the road virtually all season with its 51-34 record. The Phils are 3-1 in the postseason in traveling uniforms. On June 22, the Phillies had a 10-22 record at Citizens Bank Park. Since that time, they are a torrid 39-15. Philadelphia is 31-16 against left-hand starters and 73-48 in games decided by two or more runs. New York quickly adapted to new surroundings in the Bronx and has 62-24 home record, winning by impressive 1.3 runs per game, the second best in MLB. The pitching hasn’t mattered; the Yankees are 70-43 against RH pitchers and 40-18 versus lefties. The Yanks are 99-48 as favorites and even better than Philly in games decided by two or more runs with 86-43 record.

3DW Take: For the second year in a row, Philadelphia is an underdog in the World Series. The Phillies beat New York two of three this season and are not going to fear the Yankees. New York has the better starting pitching which has carried them for the most part in the playoffs. Beyond Mariano Rivera, the bullpen has been unnerving and Joe Girardi has been widely criticized for over-managing.

Philadelphia will piece together starting pitchers and really needs Cole Hamels to return to last year’s postseason form immediately. The Phillies bullpen has caused a few anxious moments in the playoffs, yet has escaped unscathed. For the Phillies to win they need to win both of Lee’s starts and Hamels has to pitch effectively.

The Yankees scouts have done uncanny work in having New York players in just the right spots on the field. In the series win over the Angels, lost track after 10 line drives outs, with Yankees players always perfectly positioned. If the opposing team has made a base-running blunder, New York has been able to steal an out each time. There is no lineup that has 27 harder outs in baseball.

All the talk in baseball is always about pitching this time of year, but the opposite is also true, as batters go into slumps. In this series, look for the team that continues to hit, especially for extra-base power. The Yankees should win in six, but the value of a team being defending champions, an underdog role to create even greater focus and being able to win on the road is too much value to pass up. Philadelphia in a classic series.

Series odds from DiamondSportsbook.com: Philadelphia +165, New York -195

Wednesday October 28
Philadelphia (Lee) at New York (Sabathia) 7:57 EDT

Thursday October 29
Philadelphia (Martinez) at New York (Burnett) 7:57 EDT

Saturday October 31
New York (Pettitte) at Philadelphia (Hamels) 7:57 EDT

Sunday November 1
New York (TBD) at Philadelphia (TBD) 8:20 EDT

Monday November 2
New York at Philadelphia if necessary

Wednesday November 4
Philadelphia at New York if necessary

Thursday November 5
Philadelphia at New York if necessary

Make up your mind Monday

Closed with a 2-1-1 NFL Sunday, which included Over on Chic/Cin from earlier in the week. We’ll change this up a bit today, just for fun. No real winners or losers, just information and you deciding what side of the fence to be on. Good Luck

What I thought last yesterday – How a kicker directly impacts a game and not necessarily making or missing a field goal at the end of game. Look for this to be part of article this week.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) Play On a MNF home underdog that lost SU at home last week and its opponent also lost previous game. (10-3 ATS) Or Play Against a MNF home team if their opponent scored nine or fewer points. (18-8 ATS)

Free Hockey Trend-2) Play ON Phoenix Coyotes who are 9-3 off a home loss by two goals or more OR PLAY ON New York Rangers who are 7-0 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

Free Football Pick -3) Ken had a winner yesterday and had small play on Philly earlier at -7, which is long gone now. FYI- Brandon Lange has the UNDER on MNF, it’s as close to a lock as you’ll get on the OVER as you could find.

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Monday Night Football Mystery

The Monday night game matches a pair of NFC East divisional rivals coming off bitter losses as significant favorites. Washington lost at home to Kansas City 14-6 as 6.5-point home favorites to fall to 2-4 on the season, and this will actually be the first time since Week 1 that they are matched against a quality opponent. That is a questionable description of Philadelphia though coming off the 13-9 loss at Oakland as two touchdown road chalk.

Here we are after six weeks into the season and the Redskins will finally line up against an opponent with a win under its belt. That’s right. Washington’s first six games came against a team yet to win: New York Giants (0-0), St. Louis (0-1), Detroit (0-2), Tampa Bay (0-3), Carolina (0-3) and Kansas City (0-5). Its next one comes against a team that just lost to the Raiders, who were outscored on either side of Eagles game 82-7. Head coach Jim Zorn received the dreaded vote of confidence that he will be the coach the rest of the season, but his play calling duties have been supplanted by veteran coach Sherm Lewis, whose most recent job was calling bingo numbers.

Off for two weeks after this contest, the Redskins have struggled offensively going into the bye week of late, scoring 13.4 points in its last 10 tries, resulting in eight UNDER's. Those numbers favor comparably with Washington scoring 13.2 points per game on the season and 10.3 at FedEx Field.

Washington is 3-9-3 ATS in last 15 encounters and it’s no secret owner Daniel Snyder and members of the front office are unimpressed with Zorn’s offensive acumen, the very reason he was hired. The Redskins are in a bad situation offensively. Jason Campbell is seemingly no better than when he was drafted out of Auburn in 2005. The offensive line is again in turmoil with injuries and Clinton Porter is no longer an explosive running back. This is a deadly combination for a team that is on 1-8 ATS home streak.

For as tough a town as Philadelphia (3-2 SU & ATS) is, it was bewildering the Eagles Andy Reid and Eagles players weren’t crucified for lack of focus and effort in Oakland. Forget the Raiders pride was hurt by harsh words from Giants players, no excuses for all the Philadelphia players to be out-hustled and out-played by a team that might have three players who could start for them.

"It's a great lesson to learn that no team is as good as you think in this league and no team is as bad as you think in this league," coach Reid said. "It's the National Football League and you better be ready every week to play and execute as coaches and players and it starts with me." The bespectacled coach is 39-23 ATS after one or more losses and 16-4 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

The Eagles have flown to 7.5-point favorites after opening at 6.5, with total having sunk to 37.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com. This is Philadelphia’s first divisional contest of 2009, and they are on a 5-1 ATS run on the road vs. their fellow rivals. The Eagles are on a 9-5 SU and 9-4-1 ATS run in Washington with 12 of the last 16 meetings going UNDER in the nation’s capitol.

The Eagles cover if don’t forget to run the ball. The fourteen rush attempts last week is totally ridiculous given it was a four point contest. Reid and his coaches have to stay committed to Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy. The left side of the Philadelphia offensive line is hurting with injuries, expect Washington to blitz that side similar to what Oakland did, however rolling Donovan McNabb to his right counteracts the move. Philadelphia is 13-6 ATS on the road and is normally a smart football team; averaging almost seven penalties a game isn’t very bright. Skins signal caller Campbell isn’t known for reading blitzes properly, attack him with abandon.

The Redskins cover if they bring the heat on McNabb, who can quickly forget his fundamentals when pressured and make mistakes. Short fields offer the Washington the best chance to score and get the crowd in the game from the get-go. The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS roll in this series and putting Campbell in the shotgun is working towards his strength, since he is slow to read and react to blitzes. Zorn has about as much chance of returning next season as a Zima comeback, thus he and Lewis should devise wide open offensive attack, since chances of making playoffs are remote presently. Here’s hoping one of Redskins plays isn’t B-14.

Monday Night System – Play On a home underdog that lost SU at home last week and its opponent also lost previous game. (10-3 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

NFL Plays and sad commentary

I was a little shaky on yesterday’s prospects being good and 2-2 record for the week proved the point. Today we’ll look to do better, starting with an 8.11 percent NFL system. The Top Trend is in Sunday Night football and don’t forget to look back to Wednesday for NFL Totals Play. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – I’m having a crummy CFB season betting wise and one game summed it up yesterday. I wonder (if ever) when was the last time an underdog was getting +15.5 points, scored 45 points and still failed to cover. Ironically, it was Idaho who was 7-0 ATS before yesterday.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON any team like the Niners that are an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. Since 2005 this system is 30-7, 81.1 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) The New York Giants are 15-2 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Ken of the LCC has hit his top play in the NFL all six weeks and has Dallas at -4.5.

Guaranteed NFL Winners Today!

Week 7 NFL Game Matchups

Their might only be 13 games on the schedule for this week, however, Sunday afternoon five exceptional matchups really standout. This week AFC-NFC conflicts dominate the schedule and four in particular are worth noting. The NFC leads 13-10 SU and Minnesota will put unbeaten record on the line at Pittsburgh. Two upstarts, San Francisco and Houston will try to keep pushing playoff aspirations. Chicago and Cincinnati meet in the Queen City and one team will have consecutive losses at the end of the day. New Orleans is in potential flat spot on the road against rested home underdog Miami and Dallas also returns from a bye week and to face a dangerous Atlanta squad.

Minnesota at Pittsburgh 1:00E FOX

Minnesota (6-0, 4-2 ATS) continues its most difficult stretch of the 2009 season with a trip to what could be the NFL’s toughest environment, Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The defending champion Steelers (1-5 ATS) are starting to find their groove, having won three straight games to move to 4-2, with 27-14 win over Cleveland. They’ll head into their bye week next, important since underdogs and road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven Pittsburgh pre-bye week games. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s team is also just 2-5 ATS in its last seven tries vs. NFC foes and just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS hosting the Vikings. Still, with a 28-11 ATS record vs. teams with winning percentage of 75 or higher, Pittsburgh has to like its chances. Minnesota will be out for more late game magic vs. the Steelers and is 3-0 SU and ATS on the road.

Keys to the Game-

At 40-years old, Brett Favre has the third highest quarterback rating at this juncture of the season, as the offensive line has done superior work in keeping his jersey clean. This allows Favre to step into his throws and getting attacking defenses. Last week was perfect example as they built 14-0 lead on Baltimore before they knew what hit them. Minnesota has performed poorly in two of last three games in the fourth quarter, being torched on the ground and thru the air. That won’t work against Ben Roethlisberger and the Vikes are 1-10 ATS in road games after allowing seven or more yards a play in their previous game.

The Steelers haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 24 consecutive regular season games and keeping Adrian Peterson in tow is tantamount. Favre has hit a number of plays to WR Sidney Rice the last few weeks, those have to be contained. Pittsburgh is 11-2 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards and must keep Jered Allen away from Big Ben and keep the pressure on 24th ranked pass defense.

3DWLine – Pittsburgh by 2.5

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Pittsburgh -6, 46.5

San Francisco at Houston 1:00E FOX

After being off last week, San Francisco coach Mike Singletary faces a challenge of getting his 49ers (3-2, 4-1 ATS) teams to play well, as they were 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in post-bye week games prior to his arrival. Another obstacle figures to be the fact that this will be the 49ers first ever trip to Reliant Stadium. They are still stinging from the 45-10 loss to Atlanta, their first ATS setback of 2009. Overall, they are 5-2-1 ATS on the road under Singletary. Houston (3-3 SU&ATS) has been tough to read this season, alternating wins and losses. This week would be a loss according to that pattern. The Texans boast a 16-11 ATS home record under Gary Kubiak, but just 3-3 ATS hosting NFC foes. In addition to San Francisco’s post-bye team struggles, the OVER has converted in those last 10 games.

Keys to the Game-

With a week off, it’s time for the Niners to be more creative offensively. Lacking a deep threat in the passing game, teams have increasingly crowded the line of scrimmage to stop the run. Michael Crabtree might not all the offense; however he knows how to go deep and fight for the pigskin. San Francisco has the worst third down conversion rate in the league, which means more three and four yard gains on first down are imperative. The 49ers defense found out what a hot quarterback can do against Atlanta and Matt Schaub shifts the ball around to lots of receivers. They have to tighten coverage or they will fall to 5-13 ATS on the road against foe off a SU underdog triumph.

The Houston running game has been ineffectual (30th), nevertheless getting the ball to RB Steve Slaton on screens and wheel-routes in the correct method to exploit slower linebackers. The offensive line will have to allow Schaub time to throw and he has been on target with clean throwing lanes. The defensive line should use this opportunity to get sack-groove back as QB Shaun Hill lacks pocket presence and has been tackled for loss repeatedly. The Texans have covered nine of last 13 tilts.

3DW Line – Houston by 2
Bookmaker.com Line – Houston -3, 44

Chicago at Cincinnati 4:15E FOX

Chicago begins a two-game stint against AFC North foes when it travels to Cincinnati. The Bears (3-2, SU&ATS) haven’t been to the Queen City since recording a 24-0 win back in 2001. Overall, the road team has won three of the last four games, both SU & ATS, between these non-conference foes. The Bears are just 10-12 ATS vs. AFC teams under Lovie Smith, including 5-5 ATS on the road. Cincinnati (4-2, 3-3 ATS) shares the same won-lost record as Pittsburgh for the AFC Central lead and hopes to head into its bye week on a good note. The Bengals off the home loss to Houston in which they yielded 472 yards, are looking for a sixth straight ATS win vs. the NFC, although they are just 2-4-1 ATS as hosts in that role since 2005. Road teams are 6-2 ATS in Cincinnati’s pre-bye week games since 2001.

Keys to the Game-

Chicago should know what to do with former teammate Cedric Benson, as he is one-cut-and-go runner. The Bears defense tackles bottled up Michael Turner last week (30-yards) and need to shoot the gaps to contain Benson. Cincinnati loves to blitz and might need to even more without DE Antwan Odom gone for the season. Though the Bears receiving core is feeble, so is the Bengals 28th rated pass defense. Give Jay Cutler time and Chicago has the upset and Bears move to 10-4 ATS following a spread loss.

When Cincinnati almost lost to Cleveland a couple weeks ago, they were arrogant in kicking the ball to Joshua Cribbs, giving the Browns excellent field position time and again. Coach Marvin Lewis has to be smarter against the Bears return personnel or a loss could entail. Be patient with Benson on the ground. He has shown proclivity for breaking big runs, don’t be discouraged by a series of minimal gains. The Bengals have bounced back after sorry defensive performances and are 6-2 ATS after allowing more than 350 total yards. Create exotic blitz packages to annoy Cutler, who have shown he’s not above making poor throwing decisions.

3DWLine – Chicago by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Cincinnati -1, 42.5

New Orleans at Miami 4:15E FOX

After losing its first three games, Miami won its last two before its bye week to climb back into the AFC East race. The next three weeks will determine whether the Dolphins (2-3 ATS) are capable of staying in the hunt. After this game against the undefeated Saints (5-0 SU&ATS), they face trips to New York and New England, both critical divisional contests. Miami comes in on a 4-8 ATS slide as a home underdog. New Orleans is off the statement win over the Giants and also faces a pair of divisional opponents up next, only at home, starting with Atlanta. The Saints are 6-0 ATS the last two years vs. the AFC, and 17-6 ATS vs. AFC East foes dating back to 1992. They are also 8-1 ATS as road chalk under coach Sean Payton. Miami last hosted the Saints in 1998, and is 2-0 SU & ATS in those meetings.

Keys to the Game –

The New England Patriots of a couple of seasons ago might have been a tremendous story ravaging the NFL in the first part of the season; however this New Orleans offense is no less lethal. Coach Payton’s attacking game plans immediately have opponents on tilt, with Drew Brees the executioner. The Saints are 11-1 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons in no small part because they win the turnover battle. They are +9 in 2009. New Orleans must tame the “wildcat”. Scoring quickly and building lead places more pressure on slower-paced Miami to score more frequently.

The best way to cool Brees is have him on the sidelines. Miami has the NFL’s best running game and averages over 36 carries a game. Use the same tactics that almost ended Indianapolis unbeaten season. With an extra week to work out deficiencies, the Dolphins have to have Joey Porter and Jason Taylor pestering Brees or he will eat up safeties, the weak link of Fins defense. Miami is 4-14 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog and they better spot TE Jeremy Shockey from the Saints first offensive snap or another loss is forthcoming.

3DWLine – New Orleans by 7
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -6.5, 48

Atlanta at Dallas 4:15E CBS

Dallas may have headed into its bye week with the confidence of a 3-2 team, but the truth is the Cowboys (2-3 ATS) are closer to being 1-4 than they are to being elite outfit. A late interception return versus Carolina and OT win at Kansas City has made the difference. Offensively they have been stellar, gaining an incredible 7.0 yards per play, best in the NFL. However, defensively, they are yielding 5.8 yards per play, and ranked 22nd in total defense. They start a two-game homestand, and they’ll take on another pretty good team offensively, Atlanta, who comes in at 4-1 after beating Chicago. The Falcons (4-1 ATS) begin a stretch of four road games in their next five. They are on a run of 21-9 ATS in October road games. Speaking of visitors, road teams are 6-0 SU & ATS in Dallas’ last six post-bye week contests.

Keys to the Game-

Frequently, teams off a bye are somewhat lethargic playing at home and off a victory. This sets up perfect opportunity to spring no-huddle offense on Dallas, say the second series of the game. Matt Ryan showed he can handle this attack comfortably and the Cowboys are 26th against the pass. Atlanta has improved the last two weeks stopping the run and applying quarterback pressure, but has blown contain and let opposing QB’s scramble for first downs. Keep Romo in the pocket. Once again the secondary is a concern for Falcons, which means pass rush has to work. The Birds are 0-6 ATS after two or more consecutive wins since last year.

The offensive line has to take it Atlanta, building on No.3 rush attack. This keeps Romo from making boneheaded plays. Great efficiency is also needed in the red zone as seven touchdowns in 15 red zone possessions is not good enough. Ryan, the former Boston College quarterback, has not been sacked since the third quarter of the first game against Miami. After lumbering start, Cowboys have 10 sacks in last three contests. Get to Ryan and chances of 6-0 ATS record off a bye improve substantially.

3DWLine – Atlanta by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -4.5, 47.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.