It has been a solid week thus far, the System plays are 5-0, the Trend plays have won the last four days and the Free plays are 5-4. Good luck today.
System -1) Play Against teams like Cleveland that are having trouble scoring runs (4.5 or less runs a game), against a good NL starting pitcher like Aaron Harang (ERA of less than 3.70), when, in this case, the Indians are batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. This system is a powerful 35-5 the last 11 seasons.
Trend - 2) The Detroit Red Wings are 27-4 ATS at Joe Louis Arena after covering three of their last four against the spread over the last two seasons.
FREE Selection -3) After a nice 2-1 day, our LCC free play in on the Atlanta Braves with Tim Hudson listed pitcher.
Lakers Can't Win Game 6
A great deal has been made and rightfully so about how dominate home teams have been in the conference semifinal round of the NBA Playoffs, with record now at 20-1 and 14-5-2 against the spread. This home team dominance could end at any time and likely will, since nothing historically suggests it will continue. Yet what factors have led to such an occurrence. Understanding this provides the answer in Utah tonight.The single biggest explanation and one that is rather simplistic is the shots that fall at home, are not being made on the road. Why is this? Start with the mindset of each player in home/road dichotomy. At home, the team and thus the player is more comfortable in familiar surroundings, the crowd cheering invigorates player on both sides of the floor. He’s play with more passion, more energy and more importantly, is more relaxed. He gives the extra effort on defense fighting through screens, takes the ball to the basket with more abandon to dunk or be fouled.
A legitimate question would be how is this different than the regular season? The answer is as simple as looking at the date on the calendar, it’s the playoffs. The stakes are higher, reputations of today’s players are on the line and the pressure is immense.
This leads to the deeper aspect of why road teams can’t win, mental toughness. This entire generation of players grew up being coddled since they were in grade school. They were always told how great they were and most negative elements were removed from their lives, setting them up for success. What was left out was how to deal with adversity, real adversity like ordinary people face everyday. Why coaches preach defense is no matter how good a player is offensively, some nights the shots just won’t fall. But defense, well this is getting into stance each time down the floor fighting to not let your man score.
Playing close attention, watch how many times, a visiting player have missed two or three shots in a row and it is his man that scores the basket. The difference is not only on the offensive side, it’s on the defensive end as well, lending to twofold problem. This in turn leads to explanation of why so many of these games have been double digit wins for the home team. Just like many of the Super Bowls in the 1980’s and 90’s, that were blowouts. When two highly trained and talented teams are running at peak efficiency, once one lets down, the other will race right by its opponent, leading to lop-sided scores. This is precisely what has happened in this round of the playoffs. The home team is completely dialed in, the visitor; being defended more arduously, becomes frustrated when shot attempts fail, carries that baggage to the other side of the floor and gives up a basket or stupid foul still thinking about missing previous shot.
This four point swing doesn’t have to happen very often in the course of a game either to make any contest a blowout. A mere five trips in the home teams favor, makes an 18-20 win, especially in the fourth quarter.
While teams like San Antonio cause outrage with dirty tactics and call for full understanding of the rules, no denying they play to win. Why have we seen a drop in teams from this country in international play, despite having the best players in the world? Why do we continue to lose to less gifted teams? Today’s players are mentally softer and don’t adjust well to challenges that regular people face in everyday life.
Today, as you look at Utah being bet up from a two-point home favorite to four at most wagering outlets, it’s comfortable to know that the Jazz are 11-2 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less this season or the Lakers are 15-26 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. But what is really important to understand is back at EnergySolutions Arena, Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer will do everything possible to send this to a Game 7.
That is not to say the Lakers can’t win, however if they did it would be the first time either team showed it had what it took to step up and show stout-heartedness and grit.
Friday May 16, Three Daily Winners
Nearly a sweep yesterday, as the Giants bullpen fell apart to cause one loss. The Systems plays are cleaning up, 4-0 this week.
System -1) Play UNDER on home teams like Cleveland where the first half total is between 85.5 and 90.5 points (presently 90) after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This system is 27-6, 81.8 percent the last 12 years, including 11-1 the last five seasons.
Trend - 2) The Chicago White Sox are 18-2 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher like the Giants Jonathan Sanchez, whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 since interleague play began.
FREE Selection -3) A new member from the LCC, has three plays in interleague baseball he likes equally as well and will share them. Tonight he’s playing Baltimore, Seattle and Arizona. He is on 10-4 run in baseball bets this week.
System -1) Play UNDER on home teams like Cleveland where the first half total is between 85.5 and 90.5 points (presently 90) after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This system is 27-6, 81.8 percent the last 12 years, including 11-1 the last five seasons.
Trend - 2) The Chicago White Sox are 18-2 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher like the Giants Jonathan Sanchez, whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 since interleague play began.
FREE Selection -3) A new member from the LCC, has three plays in interleague baseball he likes equally as well and will share them. Tonight he’s playing Baltimore, Seattle and Arizona. He is on 10-4 run in baseball bets this week.
Thursday May 15, Three Daily Winners
The System won for a third straight day and the Free Selections were 2-0, with added bonus picked missed. Let’s move to today.
System -1) Play Against all underdogs like the Yankees with a money line of +100 or higher, with a mediocre AL offensive scoring 4.2 runs or less a game, against a team with a very good bullpen like Tampa Bay (3.13 ERA), with a starting pitcher like Scott Kazmir, who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start. This system has hit 22 of 26, 84.6 percent since 2004.
Trend - 2) With the Braves 24th in stolen bases, Cole Hamels is 17-3 vs. poor base-running teams, averaging a stolen base or less every other game over the last two seasons. (Phillies Record)
FREE Selection -3) Our betting expert from the Left Coast Connection, gave us two MLB winners and will stick with him today, as he plays the Giants in afternoon action.
System -1) Play Against all underdogs like the Yankees with a money line of +100 or higher, with a mediocre AL offensive scoring 4.2 runs or less a game, against a team with a very good bullpen like Tampa Bay (3.13 ERA), with a starting pitcher like Scott Kazmir, who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start. This system has hit 22 of 26, 84.6 percent since 2004.
Trend - 2) With the Braves 24th in stolen bases, Cole Hamels is 17-3 vs. poor base-running teams, averaging a stolen base or less every other game over the last two seasons. (Phillies Record)
FREE Selection -3) Our betting expert from the Left Coast Connection, gave us two MLB winners and will stick with him today, as he plays the Giants in afternoon action.
Wednesday May 14, Three Daily Winners
The System and the Trend were both winners yesterday, let's move ahead.
System -1) When the Total is 10 or higher, with an average hitting team like Colorado (AVG = .255 to .269), facing an average starting pitcher like Micha Owings (ERA=4.20 to 5.20-NL) in May, Play the UNDER. This impeccable system is 18-2 the last five seasons, including a pair of winners in 2008.
Trend - 2) Atlanta is 2-12 against the money line in road games after one or more consecutive Unders this season.
FREE Selection -3) As will be the custom, once a person losses they are out and we’ll pick up the next hottest bettor, from this syndicate. Today sharp bettor has had four winning days in a row and has two big plays, the Blue Jays and the Astros. In addition, he’s calling for Red Wings to close out Dallas in NHL action.
System -1) When the Total is 10 or higher, with an average hitting team like Colorado (AVG = .255 to .269), facing an average starting pitcher like Micha Owings (ERA=4.20 to 5.20-NL) in May, Play the UNDER. This impeccable system is 18-2 the last five seasons, including a pair of winners in 2008.
Trend - 2) Atlanta is 2-12 against the money line in road games after one or more consecutive Unders this season.
FREE Selection -3) As will be the custom, once a person losses they are out and we’ll pick up the next hottest bettor, from this syndicate. Today sharp bettor has had four winning days in a row and has two big plays, the Blue Jays and the Astros. In addition, he’s calling for Red Wings to close out Dallas in NHL action.
Boston Celtics Will Not Win NBA Title
I admit it; I picked the Boston Celtics to win the NBA Championship before the playoffs began. Consider me one of those Democrats whose like a super-delegate, I have the right to throw my support towards whoever I want. I was fooled by the regular season record, believing Boston ACTUALLY had a bench. I was naive enough to think Doc Rivers was a better than average coach and didn't follow one of the fundamentals of professional basketball; the NBA Playoffs are completely different than the regular season.As bad as all those elements are, I was bamboozled into believing the Celtics "Big Three" had suddenly become clutch players. Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce are all great individual talents; they just have never won anything that matters. LeBron James has been to more NBA Finals then the three of them combined (1). I refuse to listen to the garbage talk they played on bad teams; since in King James almost four seasons, he has not had many players on the Cavs roster that will be familiar to anyone who wasn't a Cleveland fan come 2014.
For all their talent, the word "clutch" is never associated with their names in late game behavior. In the unexpected seven game series against Atlanta, the less than terrific trio outscored the Hawks best three players, Josh Smith, Joe Johnson and Al Horford (that's right Mike Bibby is fourth at best) 388-337. That means this collection of veteran talent outscored the Atlanta upstarts by a grand total about 7.3 points per game. Hardly dominating for a 1 vs 8 matchup.
Fast forward to Cleveland series now tied as 2-2, after the Cavs clutch fourth quarter win in Game 4. This was going to be the series "Three vs One" remember? If you've been watching, King James has had his crown stolen by Boston defense. The James’ all of us have been familiar with has been stifled. But pay close attention, the combination of James, Wally "World" Szczerbiak and Zydrunas Ilguaskas has outscored the well-known Boston trio in each of the first four games, that's right, every one.
Game 1 47-32
Game 2 53-48
Game 3 49-41
Game 4 44-43
How absolutely ridiculous is that!
After accumulating a 31-10 and 28-13 ATS road record, Boston has lost five road games in a row, by an average of just over 10 points per game. That’s championship caliber?
At some juncture, some team will win at the new Garden and Doc Rivers will have to call upon this trembling collection of faint-hearted "stars" to win a clutch road game? It just might be in Game 5 Wednesday, when the Celtics don’t play well at home. In three previous series, when it was tied at 2-2, the aforementioned King James has averaged over 41 points per game, all Cleveland wins, with two on the road. Maybe it was Bugs Bunny who knew it best when he asked, "What's up Doc?"
Celtics NBA champs at 8-5 odds? I’d rather wager on the Dolphins Jason Taylor to win Dancing with the Stars.
Tuesday May 13, Three Daily Winners
The System and the Free Pick were both winners yesterday, let's move ahead.
System -1) Play On all teams like Cleveland when the money line is +125 to -125, can’t hit a lick, batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games, playing on Tuesday. Why Tuesday is important, is because this is frequently the beginning of a new series, giving a team a fresh start. This system is 20-2, 90.9 percent the last three seasons, gathering +18.6 units of profit.
Trend - 2) The New Orleans Hornets are 10-2-1 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in previous contest.
FREE Selection -3) Sticking with the hottest bettor in the Left Coast Connection, who has picked up +10.4 units the last eight days, and he’s taking the Chicago Cubs tonight.
System -1) Play On all teams like Cleveland when the money line is +125 to -125, can’t hit a lick, batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games, playing on Tuesday. Why Tuesday is important, is because this is frequently the beginning of a new series, giving a team a fresh start. This system is 20-2, 90.9 percent the last three seasons, gathering +18.6 units of profit.
Trend - 2) The New Orleans Hornets are 10-2-1 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in previous contest.
FREE Selection -3) Sticking with the hottest bettor in the Left Coast Connection, who has picked up +10.4 units the last eight days, and he’s taking the Chicago Cubs tonight.
Monday May 12, Three Daily Winners
Will give best effort to keep this feature up each and every day.
System -1) Play Against road teams like the Cardinals when the money line is +125 to -125 with a bad bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities against opponent with a starting pitcher like Milwaukee's Dave Bush (0-4, 6.98 ERA), whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (NL). This system takes some courage with as bad as Bush has pitched; however the results speak for themselves with 21-4, 84 percent winning record, picking up +16.9 units.
Trend - 2) The Marlins are 13-4 against the money line vs. NL teams like the Reds allowing 4.8 or more runs a game this season.
FREE Selection -3) The hottest member of the Left Coast Connection is backing Cleveland -140 in Game 1 of two. This is an action play from a person who has picked up +8 units in MLB the last week.
System -1) Play Against road teams like the Cardinals when the money line is +125 to -125 with a bad bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities against opponent with a starting pitcher like Milwaukee's Dave Bush (0-4, 6.98 ERA), whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (NL). This system takes some courage with as bad as Bush has pitched; however the results speak for themselves with 21-4, 84 percent winning record, picking up +16.9 units.
Trend - 2) The Marlins are 13-4 against the money line vs. NL teams like the Reds allowing 4.8 or more runs a game this season.
FREE Selection -3) The hottest member of the Left Coast Connection is backing Cleveland -140 in Game 1 of two. This is an action play from a person who has picked up +8 units in MLB the last week.
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