Sporting a 40-22 record here, our Best System is 86.4 percent in afternoon action. The Top Trend is reverse perfect in the AL West and Slick Rick thinks he has another slick pick in MLB action. Good Luck
What I thought today- Besides doing all this, I’m a fan of certain teams but keep it guarded so people don’t think I have favoritism one way or the other. (I seldom bet on teams I like actually) However I am a fan of the Boston Bruins and last night’s loss definitely left a mark.
At the Preakness today, different wagers that include Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky and Paddy O’Prado.
Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like the Giants who average less than a home run per outing, after a win by six runs or more. Since 1997 this MLB system is 51-8, 86.4 percent.
Free Baseball Trend -2) The Oakland A’s are 0-11 vs. team’s with a terrible bullpen whose WHIP is 1.750 or worse over the last three seasons.
Free Baseball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 19-5 the last week in baseball and has Boston with Lester tonight.
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With no disrespect to Detroit, this is the matchup most hockey fans wanted to see and large factions believe the winner will go on to win the Stanley Cup the way the Eastern Conference has played out. Chicago’s loss to Detroit on the last day of the regular season gave San Jose the top seed by a single point and home ice advantage in this series.
These teams have many similarities, including sportsbooks having both of them as +160 wagers favorites to bring the Cup home to their city when the postseason concludes.
Chicago has 60 wins this season and San Jose has 59. Both have 32 wins this year on home ice and each has played well on the road with the Blackhawks having one more triumph than the Sharks at 28.
Both bring ample offensive firepower that will test the others defense and goaltending. San Jose’s “Big Three” of Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley and Patrick Marleau awoke after disappointing series against Colorado and overwhelmed the Red Wings with eight goals and 12 assists. This was especially important for Thornton (eight points) whose playoff appearances mostly have had a David Copperfield feel of disappearing.
The most consistent scorer for the Sharks has been Joe Pavelski, who followed up five goals against the Avalanche with four more against Detroit. Pavelski has carried the power play with five in the net and have three game winners. San Jose is 35-15 against teams that have winning records.
Chicago has a myriad of scorers as evidenced by 11 players having 10 or more goals during the regular season. In fact, nine different forwards tallied a goal in Vancouver series. Prominent names like Jonathan Toews (4 goals), Patrick Kane (3) and Kris Versteeg (3) all help carry the scoring load and massive Dustin Byfuglien (4) was like a tank in front of Canucks goal in last series, proving the Blackhawks are at their best when being able to keep the opposing goalie and defense busy in front of their own net.
The Hawks defensemen are more offensive-oriented, swiftly taking the puck into the other end to exploit weaknesses, however are vulnerable occasionally being caught up ice. San Jose has a better blend of two-way defenders and guys that shutdown opposing teams at the blue line.
Both netminders have been solid between the pipes. The Sharks Evgeni Nabokov has been sharper in net this playoff campaign and is among the reason why his team returns to West Finals for the first time since 2004. “We're going to go as far as Nabby takes us. He's been the backbone of this team all year long," Thornton said after the clincher against Detroit.
Chicago’s defensive lapses are why goaltender Antti Niemi has allowed four or more goals six times in the playoffs. When given normal protection by his defenders, he’s risen to the moment. Chicago is 23-9 against good passing teams averaging five or more assists per game this season.
The Blackhawks have been stronger in special teams play converting 25 percent against Vancouver and they have kept opponents out of the net 88.7 percent of the time and cashed in with three shorthanded goals as well.
San Jose has been average in both situations by comparison (19.3 percent with man advantage and 84.2 percent in penalty kills). If the Sharks expect to win this series, they have to be better on the road, where they are below average in each instance.
The Blackhawks won three of four meetings this season.
“Simply put, we didn’t play very well against Chicago and we’ll have to play a lot better to win,” San Jose coach Todd McLellan said. “We need quicker starts against Chicago. We always seem to be behind the eight ball. For us to get into a track meet with this team won’t be very productive for us throughout the series.”
San Jose can advance to Cup Finals for the first time in franchise history if they stay disciplined and maintain edge in special opportunities (+19 in power play chances) and find ways to break thru against Blackhawks’ penalty killers. They cannot lose a home game as Chicago has worn down opponents as the series went further along.
Chicago is the deeper team, with more varied scoring options. The Hawks can’t take as many silly penalties, especially with how deadly Joe Pavelski has been. The Blackhawks outshot the Sharks 157-98 this season, which shows what kind of pressure they can maintain. If they can continue this, they play for the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1992.
3Daily Winners Pick - Chicago (-105) in six over San Jose (-115)
Of the various Major League baseball series that had the possibility of being intriguing in the middle of May, this would not have been one of them before the season started. But much like “The little engine that could”, the SanDiego Padres (+12.3 units) have the best record in the National League at 22-12 and also have the fattest lead of any division leaders at 3.5 games after sweeping San Francisco at their yard.
Last season a messy divorce between owner John Moores and his wife Becky left the Padres in limbo and the organization was cut to barest of minimums, except for the face of the franchise Adrian Gonzalez. Last year’s rag-a-muffin bunch won 75 games somehow, however most baseball experts considered that a fluke and oddsmakers put a cap of 71 wins on San Diego for 2010 with its new ownership that lacks deep pockets.
What has caused the Pads to be so good this season, tremendous pitching. San Diego leads the NL in ERA at 2.61, as they concede the lowest batting average at .221 and lowest on-base percentage at .291. Those numbers improve at spacious PETCO Park, where the Padres allow a mere 2.4 runs per game, which leads to 11-5 record.
Offensively, San Diego was last in most major categories a season ago and while this group doesn’t remind many of Cincinnati’s “Big Red Machine” of 1970’s, they are at least adequate at 4.3 RPG.
In the series opener, former Dodger John Garland (4-2, 1.71 ERA) will start for the Padres. “Garland has done a heck of a job,” Los Angeles manager Joe Torre told the Dodgers’ official website. “He’s a good guy to settle down a young staff. He’s simple: ‘Just give me the ball.’”
With the L.A. offense scoring 5.3 RPG, San Diego is 9-1 vs. NL teams scoring 5.3 or more runs game on the year and is a -140 money line favorite with total Ov7.5. Garland last pitched on Saturday and is 11-1 UNDER when working on five or six days rest over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)
The Dodgers will give the ball to Ramon Ortiz (1-1, 5.16) who is making his first start since May, 26, 2007 after 14 relief appearances this season having spent 2008 in Japan and 2009 in Triple-A.
“It’s been a long time, almost two years,” Ortiz said. “I’m a very positive guy. I knew I could do this, being back in the big leagues.”
Game 1 Edge: San Diego
While much of the state of California wants to boycott Arizona, don’t count the Dodgers (-5.7) among them, after sweeping the Diamondbacks into downtown Phoenix, giving them four straight wins and six of seven to square up their record at 17-17. Los Angeles ownership is going thru the same thing San Diego did as Frank and Jamie McCourt are involved in bitter divorce proceedings which includes who actually owns the team.
Though the Dodgers are second in the league in runs scored, they have a team ERA of 4.68, which is 12th in the senior circuit, very un-Dodger like. Because of the divorce, GM Ned Colletti is unable to make any moves that might improve their pitching and is scrambling for five reliable starters and an inconsistent bullpen.
One of the more dependable starters has been Clayton Kershaw (2-2, 3.96) who once again followed up with brilliance off a stinker. He threw just 1 1/3 innings against Milwaukee in allowing seven runs and followed that up with eight shutout innings on two hits and nine strikeouts against Colorado his last time out. The Dodgers are 8-2 when the young lefty pitches the second game of a series and are 27-11 on Saturday’s.
Kevin Correia (4-2, 3.97) takes the ball for the Friars, who have averaged 9.2 runs in his six starts. Correia in fact is 20-0 when his team totals four or more runs in his career. San Diego is 5-0 when he the middle game starting pitcher and they are perfect 7-0 against left-handed opposing hurlers since Apr. 20. Correia will pitch with heavy heart, since his brother was tragically killed in hiking accident last week.
Game 2 Edge: Los Angeles
At press time, Wade LeBlanc (2-0, 1.61) is not officially listed as the starting pitcher for the Padres, though it is his turn in the rotation. The easy tossing port-sider finished last season outstanding and has continued into this year. LeBlanc’s fastball seldom hits 90 MPH, but his late-breaking curveball and devastating change-up causes a large number of ugly swings. This will be the only day game in the series and if he starts as presumed, LeBlanc has 0.82 ERA in two daytime contests.
With L.A.’s lack of maneuverability, the one pitcher Torre needed was Chad Billingsley (3-2, 4.82) who has not had command most of the season. Off last year’s second half fade, Torre has a quick hook for Billingsley, who has yet to pitch past six innings this season for a club that needs extended outings to protect what has been mediocre bullpen work. The right-hander is 8-4 with a 2.71 ERA in his career against the Padres, 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA at PETCO Park.
Game 3 Edge: San Diego
This I-5 series will be surrounded by ample excitement with Saturday’s conflict a sell-out and the other two contests either will be or very close to. This will be a good test for both clubs still early in the 2010 campaign as a gauge to where they are in the division. As long as San Diego doesn’t get too excited, their superior pitching should be enough to capture the series.
It doesn’t come up often in sports, but when it does it sends shockwaves thru the participating cities and ends up catching the attention of those following the sport from coast to coast. The Philadelphia hockey franchise and Boston Bruins have enjoyed many memorable meetings decades ago but this Game 7 could surpass all of those depending on the outcome. Even so, as this series heads to nerve-wracking deciding contest, it has already left a mark.
The History
One team wants to embrace history the other wants nothing to do with. Philadelphia has comeback from 3-0 series deficit to even up this Eastern semi-final confrontation. Philadelphia will attempt to become the third NHL team to win a series after losing its first three games Friday night in Boston. The other two successful teams were the 1975 New York Islanders and the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Flyers are the fifth different team to force such an occurrence (The Islanders did it twice) and the originally trailing team is 2-3 all time.
This year was the 17th time Boston has taken a 3-0 lead in a series and this will be the second time in their history (1939 they beat the New York Rangers) they will be playing seventh game.
What Philly changed
Flyers coach Peter Laviolette decided to attack the Bruins differently after falling behind 3-0 in the series and why not, what was there to lose at the time.
Philadelphia became more aggressive when Boston reached the blue line on offense and was aggressive in stick-checks, getting into passing lanes and giving total effort in blocking shots. Though it didn’t work at first in 5-4 overtime win in Game 4, the results the last two games has Boston putting the puck in the net once the last two contests on 54 shots.
With goaltender Michael Leighton coerced into action because of injury to Brian Boucher, the Flyers players blocked 30 shots plus the 30 Leighton stopped in Game 6’s 2-1 triumph. Philadelphia has won eight of last 11 with a day between games.
Where Boston went wrong
After playing almost flawlessly, Bruins players are hurting their own team taking penalties that lack discipline. Boston has been called for 13 penalties the last two games compared to Philly’s six and the Flyers are 2-0 in scoring in man advantage situations.
“We have to do a better job at being disciplined,” said Boston forward Milan Lucic. “They’re doing a good job with that, so we have to do an even better job than them. It’s important. It sucks for me in the second when we take a bunch of penalties in a row and I’m sitting on the bench for the last six minutes. It gets guys sitting around for a bit who don’t penalty kill. We have to do a better job as a team not taking penalties.”
It’s starting to look like the losses of Marcus Strum and David Krejci in this series are taking their toll for squad that wasn’t good offensively to begin with. Though Boston has kept up a good volume of shots on goal, the degree of difficulty for the goaltender has been relatively simple. The Bruins need a player or two to manufacture a goal for team that is 4-1 after scoring two or fewer goals.
What the numbers say
Boston is a -125 money line favorite with total of Ov5. The Bruins have taken seven of eight as home faves and have issues to deal with.
“I’m sure the pressure is mounting even more,” the Flyers Daniel Briere said. Boston is 1-8 at home after two or more defeats and 16-6-6 UNDER as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Philadelphia has all the momentum and conviction they are team of destiny, even if they are 3-9 as road underdogs. “Now that we’re here and now that we’ve climbed all the way back in this series, we want it too,” Briere said. “We have to realize that the last game will be the toughest to leave with.” The Flyers are 7-1 as visitors after a home win by a single goal.
This series finale has a 7:00 Eastern start on VERSUS with Philly 6-2-1 UNDER as postseason dogs. The winner will have home ice advantage in the East Finals against Montreal.
Those 3-0 days certainly work, so let’s go after another with our record rolling at 39-20 in last 59 plays. The Best System is flat out awesome at 88.2 percent. Ever wonder how the Yankees perform off a shutout, we have it with today’s Top Trend. Slick Rick is burning up the books and has another Free Play Good Luck
What I thought yesterday- Place me in the corner with those that believed the Cleveland Cavaliers were going to win the NBA championship. Everything seemed right this time, improved scoring, better perimeter players on defense and more guys with size in the paint to combat the Orlando’s and Lakers of the world.
Instead we’ve seen 3 ½ lousy (two just pathetic at home) performances by LeBron James and the Cavs against Boston in the conference semi-finals and this team is starting to show the same amount of pride as Atlanta, not a club that supposedly aspires to be NBA champs.
Let’s start with LeBron, how bad is his elbow? While many sportswriters are piling on James like Tiger Woods these days, something has to be wrong. How else would you explain a superstar that averages 20.8 shot per game for his career would have three games below that figure this time of year?
My sense is LeBron doesn’t trust his teammates, despite what most presumed were good moves to improve Cleveland, and there is no proof of it right now. James post-game comments about Boston’s “Big Three coming thru” might have been a telling remark about the fact he honestly believes he doesn’t have the right teammates that can step up and help him.
While James is thought to be unselfish teammate, willing to pass the ball instead of taking more shots himself, you do see a hint of Kobe “I’ll show them” if his teammates are not performing at his level.
I actually like James, but even I’m wondering if he has that killer instinct all the great ones have. When Kobe Bryant senses victory, he’s taking the ball and looks for his shot and if he ends up being covered, his teammates better be ready to catch the pass and score.
Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas and Tim Duncan would do whatever it took to win a championship. Is LeBron committed to that goal or is being the most marketable player enough for him?
Cleveland’s guards continue to be a non-factor on both ends of the floor. They don’t make shots, their perimeter defense is non-existent and I swear I hear “Beep Beep” on my HD sound when Rajon Rondo decides to go by a Cavaliers defender.
Coach Mike Brown is also having terrible playoffs. Doc Rivers looks like a future Hall of Famer with his adjustments compared to Brown’s and though these are professional basketball players, Cleveland has seldom played with any urgency, which is part of a coach’s job description, have your players ready to play.
The Cavaliers might still win the series, but is always the case in the NBA playoffs, you need two dependable scorers and third to emerge game to game if you expect to win. If James doesn’t score than who picks up the slack?
I’ll be holding onto my money thinking about backing the Cavs and really don’t see Cleveland winning two games over Boston at this juncture.
Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs like Houston with a money line of +175 to +250, with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This brilliant system is 53-7, 88.2 percent the last five years.
Free Baseball Trend -2) The New York Yankees are 19-3 after shutting out their opponent over the last three seasons.
Free Baseball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 13-2 the last five days in MLB and rides the Rangers this afternoon.
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LeBron James is supposed to be the best player in the NBA and probably is, but he hasn’t been close to being the best player in this series. King James showed a side of personality not seen often after he gave a lame effort like his teammates in Game 5 debacle.
After losing 120-88 as seven-point home favorites, James had this to say about his 15-point showing.
"I spoil a lot of people with my play," James said. "When you have a bad game here or there, you've had three bad games in a seven-year career, then it's easy to point that out. So you got to be better.
I put a lot of pressure on myself to be out there and be the best player on the court, and when I'm not I feel bad for myself because I'm not going out there and doing the things I can do. But I don't hang my head low or make any excuses about anything that may be going on, because that's not the type of player or person I am."
It’s a bit presumptuous for James to say he’s had three lousy games in his career, but what basketball fans and those rooting for the Cavaliers want to know, where is the burning desire? Is the elbow a much bigger issue? Does he find the lack proficiency from his teammates appalling? Does he not trust his coach in being knowledgeable to lead this club? Has he mentally checked out thinking about playing somewhere else?
Cleveland is 24-7-1 ATS off a defeat by 10 or more points, but this was one for the record books. No NBA with a regular season win percentage of .700 or higher had ever lost a home playoff game by 30 or more points. (Thanks Elias Sports)
What can the Cavaliers do to send this to Game 7? Having Mike Brown coach his players might help.
For starters if Antwan Jamison is going to not provide points on offense, get him off the floor, he’s a defensive liability. J.J. Hickson was valuable in the latter part of the season; use his intensity and defense to at least do something on one end of the floor.
Brown has to find an answer for Shaq and Zydrunas Ilgauskas to rotate better on weakside passes by Boston, who is feasting in the paint with layups or short jump shots. Mo Williams either decides to play or should sit. He has yet to guard Rajon Rondo and his offensive production is nil.
Lastly, LeBron has to determine what he wants. His elbow is unquestionably bothering him and he doesn’t trust his own jump shot, passing up at least seven wide open looks he had Tuesday night. But where is the explosiveness to the rim?
Yes, Boston has had a few nice wrinkles to limit James, but does the game’s best player settle for idle dribbles and pass to teammate or use his brute force like in the past and blow to the cup and score or find Cavs teammate standing by himself with wide open look at the bucket with collapsing defense? Interesting to note Cleveland is 2-9 ATS in last 11 outings against teams with winning record.
Boston has outplayed and outhustled its younger opponent and is 7-3 ATS in the postseason. The Celtics don’t want to take any chances.
"We cannot come back here," Kevin Garnett said. "We have to think this is our Game 7 coming up and we cannot afford to have the best team in the league have a Game 7 on their floor. Just not possible."
Oddsmakers have Boston as 1.5-point favorites with total of 196.5, as they go for their second three game winning streak in the playoffs. The C’s are 2-10 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more this season and 17-4 UNDER after a huge blowout victory by 30 or more. Cleveland has its back against the proverbial wall and is 2-5 ATS in last seven as road underdogs and is 16-5 OVER revenging a home massacre loss of 20 points or more.
The biggest deciding factor is LeBron’s mental state. This contest is being played with one day between games and James is shooting 36.1 percent on his meager total of 47 shot attempts, including 0-13 beyond the arc in this East semi-final with less than 48 hours between contests. In the two games Cleveland has won and covered, James is shooting 56.5 percent on 46 shots with two or more days in between outings. The Cavs are 0-6 ATS with one day of rest since April 11.
Game 6 is on ESPN at 8:00 Eastern and if Cleveland can force one more game, they will have two days off between conflicts.
If it wasn’t so absurd it might be laughable for current Cy Young winner Zack Greinke (0-4, 2.51 ERA, 1.050 WHIP). Grienke is 11th in the American League in ERA and seventh in WHIP, yet he has not registered a victory this season pitching for the Kansas City Royals.
At this time a year ago he had six wins and all the talented right-hander can say is “I’m just trying to keep us in ball games. We’re just getting beat right now,” Greinke stated.
The Royals lack of success falls into one broad pool. The Royals ace has to be perfect every time because his offense is objectionable. In his seven starts Kansas City hitters have scored a grand total of 17 runs, 2.4 per outing. K.C. is 1-6 in Greinke’s outings and he’s placed them in position to win two other games, but the bullpen blew those opportunities.
The Royals will look to avoid being swept by Cleveland at home. The Indians are on a three-game winning streak and have three consecutive double digit hit games in a row for the first time this season. This is certainly a rarity for club with a .248 team batting average.
David Huff (1-4, 4.60, 1.500) will toe the rubber for the Tribe, looking to avoid a fourth straight loss. Huff has really struggled of late with 7.16 ERA in three previous trips to the mound, allowing 34 hits + walks combined in 16.1 innings. Of the 25 base hits conceded, six were home runs which takes his total to seven dingers in only five starts.
Sportsbooks have the Indians as +170 money line underdogs and they fall into a negative super system.
Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, who are below average AL hitting team at .265 or less, against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20), with a starting pitcher who gives up one or more home runs a start.
Kansas City has lost seven in a row and won’t run into many better opportunities than this for a much needed victory. Since 1997, this system is 87-24, 78.4 percent with the favorite winning by two runs on average. Greinke is 5-7 lifetime against Cleveland but is 3-0, with 2.52 ERA in his last six starts against the Indians.
If Greinke pitches his usual game and Huff continues to be ineffective, every reason to believe the Tribe falls to 13-37 vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters.
Tuesday’s results were 1-1, not the stuff of legends but 36-20, 64.2 percent isn’t too bad. SR was correct with his Free Play and looks in the same exact direction for the next one. The Top Trend shows the Brew Crew in an uncomfortable situation. The Best System is an AL Central showdown at 83.7 percent. Good Luck
What I did today- In afternoon MLB action, I took the Reds and Twinkies. If you would like to receive my free plays on regular basis, sign up to the right.
Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs like the White Sox with a money line of +125 to +175, a meager AL team batting average of .260 or less, against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a starting pitcher whose gives up a home run once every other start. This system clocks in at 83.7 percent, 41-8.
Free Baseball Trend -2) The Milwaukee Brewers are 1-11 revenging a home loss vs opponent of six runs or more over the last two seasons.
Free Baseball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 9-1 the last three days and expects the Rays again to shine over Halos.
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Sports talk radio and sports forums are loaded with people that have opinions on all kinds of topics. Some are informed, many are not. Throwing out the often tired “_______ sucks” does not qualify as riveting or informed perspective on a particular team or player. If the teams or players are playing good or bad, for the sports bettor, it pays to know and understand why.
“It’s not working”
The Baltimore Orioles (-10.6 betting units) started the year 2-16, getting a head start on their usual second half collapse. Playing in a division with the Yankees, Boston and Tampa Bay does not make the job any easier and they’ve only faced confounding Toronto in the first three games of the season before anyone realized they would be this good to this point.
The Orioles are only scoring 3.3 runs per game and though they are 7-8 since horrific beginning, they are not doing anything at the top of the batting order. Baltimore manager Dave Trembley keeps trying to find one hot bat for the No. 1 slot of the batting order, but thus far, nothing has worked with Cesar Izturis (.218 at press time) Julio Lugo (.224) and Adam Jones (.230) all having a turn without producing to help Ty Wigginton or Matt Wieters drive in runners.
The Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros (-8) have the same basic problem as they have muddled along in 2010. The Cubs (-12.6) placed Ryan Theriot at the front of the lineup and he gets on base regularly with .329 batting average. Marlon Byrd and Geovany Soto are both hitting over .325 but the middle of the lineup is a black hole on the north side of Chicago. It’s not a good sign when one of your starting pitchers (Ryan Dempster) has a higher batting average (.230) than those in the heart of the order. Derrick Lee (.220, 28 K’s) Aramis Ramirez (.159, 31 K’s) and Xavier Nady (.186, 10 K’s in 43 AB’s) are swinging and missing, giving new meaning to the “Windy City” and the Cubs not scoring enough runs to win.
Houston’s Michael Bourn is batting lead-off, hitting .289 with on-base percentage of .366 and is nearly automatic to reach second base after a single with 11 stolen bases. Unfortunately he might have to start stealing third and home with Lance Berkman hitting .197 and Carlos Lee at .200. This less than dynamic duo has 18 combined runs batted in, which 33 National League players have surpassed individually.
There is a very good reason why White Sox slugger Paul Konerko leads the Major Leagues with 13 home runs, yet has only 27 rbi’s, nobody ahead of him in the batting order is ever on base. Leadoff man Juan Pierre has stolen 15 bags, but he can’t steal first and .244 BA leaves Chicago missing opportunities. The same is true of Gordon Beckham in the No. 2 slot of late, batting a shocking .188 and leading the Pale Hose in strikeouts with 28. Its little wonder the White Sox (-7.4) are hanging out with Cleveland and Kansas City in the lower regions of the AL Central instead of hunting down Minnesota
So that’s how you do it
It’s either seldom or never heard, “The Washington Nationals are my favorite bet”. The Nats are in second place at 18-15 behind two-time National League champion Philadelphia and are the tops in baseball betting at +11.4 units. How could this possibly be the world wonders?
Eventually, Washington will slide below .500 if they keep being outscored by a half a run a contest. Nonetheless, at least for now, four elements have changed. The first bit of credit goes to skipper Jim Riggleman, who’s altered the tone in the locker room. For years, Nationals players didn’t seem to care if they won or lost, but now those in the clubhouse daily see joy when they win and remorse when they suffer a defeat.
Next, Washington is in the middle of almost all NL offensive stats, which gives them a chance and their defense which has been one of the worst since moving to D.C., is at least average and they are getting to more balls that lead to outs. Lastly, the Nats are not blowing as many games late with Tyler Clippard and closer Matt Capps both having ERA’s under 2.00.
The San Diego Padres (+9.4) are atop the NL West, thanks to a nasty pitching staff and just enough offense. Pads pitchers have hung seven zeroes on opposing teams and held seven others to one or two runs, which doesn’t necessitate having the pressure of scoring a lot of runs to stay in the game.
San Diego pitchers are second in the NL is ERA (2.71) and BAA (.224). Padres’ hurlers are in the top six in strikeouts and top five in fewest walks allowed, which stops scoring threats from exploding. Everything is so cheery around Petco Park, even talk of trading Adrian Gonzalez has stopped.
Toronto’s unlikely quick start this campaign has been fueled by starting pitching (2nd in the AL in quality starts) and hitting the long ball. The Blue Jays (+7.3) hitters lead baseball with 51 home runs, which has meant no prolonged scoring droughts.
As good as Toronto has been, Tampa Bay (+7.2) has been that much better in the standings. In spite of a great deal of youth among its starting staff, the Rays top five starting pitchers have an ERA all under 3.20. They have 23 quality starts, the finest in the AL and the entire staff has the best ERA (2.80) and skimpiest BAA permitted at .223.
Tampa’s team batting average is pedestrian at .254; however they are third in baseball in runs scored and clutch when it counts, second in the AL in runs scored when there are two outs. This is still the most athletic team in the game and if first sacker Carlos Pena would stop trying to pull everything and hit balls to left-center like he used, the offense would only improve.
The final team to bet on is the Yankees, which is usually a bad choice considering what the losses cost. Presently, New York is hitting and pitching so well you have to think about them every day, especially on the run line.
The Yankees margin of victory is 2.2 RPG and they are 21-7 in games decided by two or more runs. Betting them on the run line is a safe wager at -150 or more on the money line, because they are so dominant and it keeps the losses to a minimum.
Montreal rubbed out the team with the best record in the NHL and is 60 minutes away from knocking off the defending Stanley Cup champions as the eighth seed, is this crazy or what? What about Philadelphia, they were nearly swept in four games by Boston, but an overtime goal and extremely impressive road shutout has them three periods away from evening up this series at 3-3 and having the Flyers going after history seldom seen. Are the Canadiens and Flyers teams destined to meet in East Finals? Everyone begins to find out Wednesday night.
Montreal at Pittsburgh 7:00E VERSUS
If the Canadiens beating Washington seemed improbable, what were the odds for them turning right around and taking Pittsburgh squad that has as much or more star power and better defense?
It turns out besides the players and coaches, there are two other nervous types coming into this win and move on Game 7. Those holding Pittsburgh series tickets at -435 have to be quaking, since whom in their right or left mind would have believed the Penguins would be in this predicament.
In addition, long shot bettors have to salivating at the thought of cashing a +365 series winner on Montreal, who once again takes a better team to the max and couldn’t be more confident and feeling less pressure than what they are.
“Game 7, it’s all about passion, details, and the team that’s going to want the game the most is going to win,” Canadiens forward Maxim Lapierre said.
Montreal has been like the guest that doesn’t know when to go home, hanging around to the point of annoyance and is 4-0 facing elimination. The Habs are a +210 money line underdog at Sportsbook.com, tell them something new. With a 7-6 record in the postseason, Montreal is inconceivable +11.55 units.
Pittsburgh can say they don’t feel the pressure, well that would not be truthful. Twice in their history the Penguins were decided home favorites heading into a Game 7, however they lost in 1993 and 1996. “This is a challenge for us,” Penguins captain Sidney Crosby said Tuesday. “It’s 3-3. There are some views out there this should have been an easy series. But we’re not losing. It’s tied. They’re here.”
The Pens are 30-8 at home after suffering a defeat, nonetheless, who the better team is right now? Montreal goalie Jaroslav Halak, has outplayed his Pittsburgh’s counterpart Marc-Andre Fleury. If the Conn Smythe Trophy for Stanley Cup Playoffs most outstanding player was being handed out today, Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin wouldn’t be in the conversation. The most amount of talk would center on Halak or Mike Cammalleri, who has six goals for the Canadiens.
"No, not at all. For us, it is the reality," Cammalleri said when asked about if his team finds these circumstances unbelievable. "If you pinch yourself, you are beat. I remember when you first come into the league, if you start sitting around and staring in awe and catching flies, you'll be out pretty quick.
"Now, we belong and we're having fun. Now, we have an opportunity to go knock these guys off in Game 7, so let's go enjoy it."
Boston at Philadelphia 7:00E TSN
Forget the pipes and netting on the Philadelphia goal, what they really need is a revolving door. Netminder Michael Leighton was pressed into service in Game 5 after goalie Brian Boucher sprained MCL in his left knee, forcing Leighton into action as the seventh different player between the pipes with the heavy pads for the Flyers.
Leighton and Boucher became just the second pair to pitch a shutout in Stanley Cup playoffs history. Leighton hadn’t played since Mar. 16 because of a sprained ankle and was put on the active roster for the first time since then for the last contest. “My legs were shaking a little bit, I was nervous,” Leighton said. “Once I made a few saves, you kind of forget about that and just get focused. It kind of goes away.”
Off their 4-0 beat down of Boston, Philly has gone from a team just hoping to extend the series to one that envisions a seventh game with the momentum of three consecutive triumphs. The Flyers are 7-3 with day between games and have never given up.
“Even when we were down 3-0, we had the feeling we could win the series,” Flyers forward Simon Gagne said. “We could win some hockey games against that team.”
For the Bruins, the possibility exists losing the scoring prowess of David Krejci and Marco Sturm to injury in this series is finally catching up to the second lowest scoring squad during the regular season. Boston players and coaches were disconsolate about something else after the white-washing, the lack of effort.
"We lost battles from start to finish," Bruins coach Claude Julien said. "They were the hungrier team tonight (Monday), and when that happens, you get those kinds of results."
Boston is 7-2 in road games after allowing four goals or more this year and comprehends its situation. "They came in and slapped us in the face," said Bruins veteran Mark Recchi. "Now we have to go there and realize that this is a series now."
Philadelphia is -135 ML home ice favorite, with total Ov5. The Flyers are on 6-1 run as chalk and 7-2-1 OVER after permitting two or fewer goals. Boston has won last four after compiling two or fewer pucks in the net and is 11-2 UNDER playing into double revenge.
Philadelphia is 2-6 vs. the Bruins at the Wachovia Center, but might have destiny on their side to force one more second round contest.
Got beat up good on Monday, dropping us to 35-19. For Tuesday have a number of MLB systems to consider in below article. The Top Trend has bit of a different twist, thus checking lines will matter. Slick Rick likes a game on the Left Coast for Free Play. Good Luck
What I lamented today- What freakin’ world was I on yesterday to play Brewers with Doug Davis, one of my favorite play against pitchers. I fell for the Crew scoring all those runs in the desert, not wise.
Free Baseball Trend -2) When the closing line is -228 to -232 and the total is 7.5, the favorite (St. Louis in this case) is 14-0 the past three seasons.
Free Baseball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 6-1 the last two days and expects the Rays to shine over Halos.
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The spelling might be slightly different, but Rajon Rondo has been very much like Ronco’s famous “Veg-O-Matic”. Rondo has sliced and diced the Cleveland defense and cut up the Cavaliers guards like helpless tomatoes or onions. Even with an up-and-down Game 3 performance, he’s averaging 21.8 points, 13 assists and 8.3 rebounds per contest and is the biggest reason Boston and Cleveland is now best two of three.
NBA playoff basketball is about making adjustments from game to game. Cleveland was more aggressive from the start in Game 3, as LeBron James and his teammates bottled up Boston from the opening tap and free-wheeled around the TD Garden going wherever they wanted in winning 124-95 as one-point underdogs.
Coach Doc Rivers didn’t like his offense or defense in that contest and made two modifications for Sunday’s game. He wanted every defender to create more on-ball pressure, thus limiting Cleveland’s ability to drive or pass wherever they desired to go and got more hands up on shots and limited the Cavs to 40.3 percent shooting after draining 59.5 percent two days prior.
Though not publicly stated since series opener, Rivers evidently gave Rondo the green light to take the ball and go rim-running whether he had teammates or not. Rivers had said after Game 1 he wanted other Celtics players to run with Rondo in transition. They did for the most part in second contest in Cleveland, but went back to old ways in being drubbed in next tilt. Rondo appeared to have free reign Sunday afternoon and carved up the Cavaliers defense for 29 points, 13 assists and a Bill Russell-like 18 rebounds. Boston won by 10 as 1.5-point home dogs and is 5-1 ATS after winning as a home underdog.
LeBron James has surveyed the situation and is tired of watching his guards get cleaved up by Rondo. “I think it starts with Rondo. He's kind of the engine that really gets them going," James said. "He does everything for them. His performance was unbelievable."Rondo was definitely the difference maker."
James has increasing taken pride in his ability to stop opposing players and was spotted by more than one courtside observer in Boston letting coach Mike Brown know he wants to get into defensive stance against Rondo.
"I would love to,'' James said after the game. “It's something we maybe should explore because Rondo is definitely dominating this series at the point guard position. For me, I don't have a problem taking Rondo or guarding Rondo throughout the course of the game. If the coaching staff or the guys want me to do it, I will."
This is not unprecedented for the Cavs as King James guarded Derrick Rose in last series and limited what the Bulls guard could do taking turns with teammates.
Cleveland is 13-4 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite and is a 7.5-point pick with total of 194.5. This strategy might come out of necessity for coach Brown whose team is 16-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Since the guards are not handling the lightning quick Boston guard and are once again ineffective as scorers, just like in Orlando series in last season’s playoffs, Brown might be forced to employ this method.
The green-clad C’s are 11-4-1 ATS in postseason underdog role and know the better defense they play, that leaves more chances for the former Kentucky guard to run free in the open court.
This TNT 8:00 Eastern matchup has alternated Over’s and Under’s in the first four meetings, however the OVER is still 6-2 in previous eight matchups.
On this Tuesday in baseball, some series start and others continue, but opportunity is always present for the sports bettor. We unleash five MLB systems from five different contests, three on the sides and two totals for you to consider today. Take a few minutes to read over and see what catches your eye as potential wagering options.
Seattle at Baltimore 7:05E
The Mariners ended their disastrous 1-8 homestand with a win on Sunday and travel cross-country to the East Coast to begin an eight-game road excursion. After scoring 12 total runs and being shut-out three times, Seattle had rare outburst in 8-1 victory over division partner Los Angeles of Anaheim. The M’s are next to last in the American League in batting average and road teams with a batting average below .255, off a win by six or more runs are 41-15 UNDER in next outing.
Toronto at Boston 7:10E
The Blue Jays have been among baseball’s best surprises in 2010; however they haven’t been hard to figure for Boston. Toronto has lost all four games to the Red Sox in this new campaign, as Brandon Morrow was pathetic after his club had given him a 4-2 lead in the second inning last evening. Morrow allowed six runs in just 1 2/3 innings, walking six batters and permitting three hits. This placed quite a burden on the bullpen and Toronto lost 7-6.
Dana Eveland will try and break the spell Boston has had on Toronto, however despite 3-1 record and 3.82 ERA, Eveland has more walks than strikeouts in his 35+ innings (17 vs.16). The Blue Jays as +150 money line underdogs and teams with with a starting pitcher who strikes out three or less batters per outing, after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings, are 10-56 the last five seasons.
Houston at St. Louis 8:15E
The Astros have set up camp at the bottom of the NL Central and are giving indications they might not be leaving any time soon. Houston is the only team in the National League that has yet to score 100 runs on the season (85 total runs = 2.7 RPG). And Houston certainly does have a problem with a power outage, sending only 13 baseballs over the fence with the league’s mean average at 30 dingers.
Newly acquired Bret Myers (1-2, 3.67 ERA) has been more than adequate and would have better record with improved run support. However the ‘Stros are +210 road underdogs and clubs averaging less a home run per contest with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better are merely 15-66 since 2006.
Chicago at Minnesota 8:10E
For years, the Metrodome was a “house of horrors” for the White Sox having lost 15 of last 18 at the indoor facility. Chicago is hoping a move outdoors will be a benefit for them and will have Freddy Garcia (5.38 ERA) on the mound after a game in which he did not give up a home run or walk a batter.
Minnesota is a -168 ML favorite and leads the AL Central and is second to Tampa Bay in ERA at 3.51. AL favorites of -150 or higher, allowing 4.7 or less runs a game against opponents starting pitcher, who did not walk a hitter in last outing are 87-26.
Los Angeles at Arizona 9:40E
The state of Arizona is under siege nationally for its new immigration law and the Diamondbacks bullpen is feeling similar pressure, not getting anyone out. Arizona’s pen has eye-popping ERA of 7.09, 4-8 record and five blown saves in 12 tries.
Tonight they turn to their ace Dan Haren (4-1, 1.224 WHIP) to end four-game losing streak and hope he give his usual seven or more strong innings to save the beleaguered bullpen. With the total a spot on nine, home teams with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the year, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 10 games and with a posted total by oddsmakers of 9 or 9.5, are 33-8 UNDER. All systems from the Foxsheets.
Another quality day of 2-1 takes us 35-16, 68.6 percent in past 51 picks. Sal has a NL East play for Free today. A Cincy pitcher isn’t at his best into today’s trend situation and we have a 80 percent totals system ready to fire. Good Luck
What I thought today- (11:07 am PDT) Orlando and the L.A. Lakers go for the sweep today of their respective opponents, with NBA bettors liking the Magic’s chances the most. Orlando opened as -5.5 point road favorites, but the majority of books have moved them up to -6.5.
The interest in the Lakers and Utah is more along the lines of scoring, which has escalated each contest and produced three Over’s. The opening number of 205.5 was not good enough for totals players, who have bet it up to 207.
In baseball, numbers moving up and down on favorites.
The Washington Nationals might be tied in the standing with the New York Mets at 17-14, but MLB bettors are not sold at least tonight on the Nats. New York opened as -140 home favorites and has gone up at least 15 cents at most wagering outlets. With the Mets John Maine sporting 2.30 ERA in last three starts and 10-0 record at home vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season over the last three seasons (Mets Record), this could be a factor.
Boston is receiving the same treatment, getting ready to face division rival Toronto. This line movement is bit more perplexing as the Red Sox have gone from -171 to at least -185 and higher at sportsbooks. The Blue Jays are 12-4 on the road this season and have won nine of last 11. Boston does own 3-0 record over Toronto in 2010 and is 16-3 after seven or more consecutive Fenway Park contests however.
The Chicago Cubs just finished 1-5 road trip and subtract their lone victory and this dead ball club scored 10 total runs in the other five contests. The Cubs have gone from -165 favorites at Wrigley Field to -151 or less. Possibly 6-13 record against losing teams doesn’t instill much confidence.
Free Baseball System -1) Play Under when the total is 7 to 8.5 and a team like Tampa Bay is batting a frigid .225 or worse over their last 10 games, against opponent with a ice cold starting pitcher with ERA over 7.00 in his last three starts. This system is 40-10, including 4-0 this season.
Free Baseball Trend -2) The Reds Bronson Arroyo is is 4-17 on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 in his pitching career. (Team’s record)
Free Baseball Pick -3) Sal is 10-3 in MLB since Thursday and has the Mets, though he bought it much lower price.
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One professional basketball team swept away the competition in the second round; now two more will try and match them to start a new work week. Orlando and Los Angeles Lakers will attempt and do the same thing Phoenix performed yesterday and whisk away their opponent’s in four games to advance to conference finals.
The Magic are presumed to have the easier time since they have toyed with Atlanta like the Harlem Globetrotters vs. the Washington Generals. Orlando has won the three games in the series by an average of 29 points, which by NBA standards is about the same difference as a balanced budget in Washington D.C. vs. the national debt.
Orlando’s worst shooting game in the series was their last at 50.7 percent (the other two were 52.4 and 55.9 percent), while Atlanta shot attempts looked like a few of Tiger Woods drives over the weekend, making a paltry 36.8 percent vs. the Magic, however at least Woods had a back neck as excuse.
The Magic have won lucky 13 in a row (12-1 ATS) and are 13-3 ATS in road games having covered 12 or more of their last 15 against the spread over the last three seasons. Oddsmakers are taking a hit on the Hawks as the old “pendulum” theory is taking a beating with Atlanta, which is why Orlando is 6.5-point favorites after being just two in Game 3.
The Hawks are 2-13 ATS in the second round of the playoffs and 4-18 ATS off a home massacre of 20 points or more and the most telling and damning remarks come from one of their own.
When asked how well his team plays together center Al Horhord offered this.
“The chemistry, it’s OK,” Horford said, hardly a glowing assessment. “At times, it can be really good. Other times, not so good. There are ups and down. We have a lot of good guys on the team. We mesh to a certain extent. I just think sometimes, when things don’t go our way, everybody seems to crawl into their own little hole.” How could a sports bettor take the points with that cryptic statement for this TNT tilt at 8:00 Eastern?
While many basketball experts don’t recognize much of a difference between the Lakers and Utah besides the height factor, Los Angeles has on other clear edge, which is why they are the defending NBA champions.
The Lakers are maddening bunch this year as reported underachievers, merely going thru the motions too often for people’s taste. They had the third best regular season record at 57-25 and were far from domineering at +4.7 points point differential (tied for sixth overall). Their 39-50-2 spread record is a scattergood for a team of their ability, yet the one thing they do right the vast portion of the time is they make one more shot, grab one more rebound or make one more defensive stop to win games than the opposition. This carried them to Game 3 victory and 3-0 series lead even if good fortune as much as anything kept Wesley Matthews tip-in try at the buzzer out of the basket.
For all the criticism Phil Jackson’s team receives they have won five in a row and covered the number four times and have growing confidence, which is not good news for future opponents. “Down the stretch, we made big shots. We’ve got guys that aren’t scared to take them,” Kobe Bryant said. “All across the board, guys will step up and they make them. That’s why we never really fret when it’s a five-point game or a two-point game with a couple minutes to go. “ The Lakers have no problem playing the up-tempo game with Utah and are 9-1 ATS after three or more consecutive Over’s this season.
Utah is 2.5-point favorites, with total at a series high of 207 and the Jazz are 13-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this year. “If we get the ball in the basket last night in the end of the ballgame it’s a different day,” Utah coach Jerry Sloan said Sunday. “But that’s part of it. You learn how to deal with the good and bad in life. There’s always going to be both at different times.”
The Jazz are 8-0 ATS at Energy Solutions Arena after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points and are 8-1 OVER in all playoff conflicts this campaign. The Lakers would prefer not to extend series and have nearly as much rest as the Suns before they meet and are 34-19 ATS as underdogs.
This contest will begin after Orlando and Atlanta complete their game and L.A. is 13-5 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season.
The Bruins and Penguins have their first shot of moving to East Finals when they play Monday night. Boston theoretically has the easier task, playing on home ice at TD Garden, however they are not as large a favorite as Pittsburgh is on the road north of the border. Will both emerge victorious and get ready to meet each other or will they be forced to play another game?
Philadelphia at Boston 7:00E TSN
The Bruins can’t feel too bad losing to the Flyers in Game 4. Philadelphia had to win to avoid the embarrassment of being swept on their own frozen pond and Boston pushed them to overtime before falling.
Normally reliable defenseman Zdeno Chara turned the puck over at center ice, leading to the winner for Philly.
"We had our chances," said Boston coach Claude Julien. "There were chances in overtime for both sides. It's just the way it goes. Sometimes its one little mistake, one little miscue, and it's in the net."
The B’s are back home and are 41-16 having won three of their last four. This is a confident club, knowing what it takes from this point.
“Just play the same way: Play to win," said right wing Mark Recchi, who had two more goals Friday night. "We came in here (Philadelphia) and played two pretty good games. They battled hard and got a big win. But we're going home. We've got home-ice (advantage) in this series and we've kept it.”
The Bruins have to revert back to defensive-style, which has allowed them to be 36-13 when they permit two or less goals. Offensively it is about finding the right opportunities and the importance of center Patrice Bergeron is greatly enhanced with of fellow C David Krejci out for the rest of the playoffs with broken wrist.
Boston is a -145 money line favorite with total Ov5 and they are unbeaten at home in the postseason (5-0) and 7-0 as Bean-Town favorites. The Bruins are 14-4 UNDER in dark home jerseys when playing with two days’ rest.
Philly survived their first elimination game and is 9-2 away after a one goal victory on home ice. Nevertheless, the Flyers are 3-9 after a game where nine or more total goals were scored this season.
Pittsburgh at Montreal 7:00E VERSUS
The Canadiens have kept Sidney Crosby locked up, as he has failed to score in this series and has been held without a point in three of five conflicts. This has shifted the focus over to Evgeni Malkin, last year’s regular-season scoring champ and playoff MVP.
Malkin has been a factor in each contest against Montreal, but he was dominating when his team needed him most with series tied 2-2. Malkin controlled the puck for long stretches of time in the Canadiens zone. He led Pittsburgh with six shot attempts in Game 5 and though he didn’t score, he set up a power-play goal by Kris Letang, and later controlled the rubber in the offensive zone before Sergei Gonchar tallied what would be the winner in tight 2-1 tussle.
"It's great to watch. It's great to have him on your team," said veteran forward Bill Guerin, who returned to the lineup after an undisclosed injury kept him out of Games 3 and 4. "When he takes it to that level, it's really, really hard for other guys to stop him. Even two guys, he's going to make it difficult on you. If he's not taking it to the net himself, he's going to find somebody. If he gets in that zone of playing, it's really difficult for the other team."
The Pens have won five of last six as visitors and are -175 ML pick to close out series. Pittsburgh is 5-1 as visiting favorite of -151 to -200 and are 27-14 UNDER in road games after allowing one or fewer goals in previous contest.
Montreal doesn’t sound like a team getting ready to play golf and have the summer off. “We're not going to go away. You know that," Habs forward Mike Cammalleri said. "Now we just have to win one game at home and we're right back where we want to be."
The Canadiens might be 6-14 as playoff underdog, but all six wins have come this postseason and if they can contain Pittsburgh again and limit them to two goals, they are 26-14 when the opponent registers that scoring total.
Picked up three more winners on Saturday taking us to 33-15, yippy-skippy. Let’s begin with Top Trend in totals area that is unbeaten. Kendall is blazing coming into Mother’s Day and has NL West Free selection. The Best System is 83.3 percent in the land of 10,000 or more lakes. Good Luck
What I thought today- It’s hard to go wrong listening to your mom.
Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like the O’s, an AL team batting .260 or less, against a team with a good bullpen (ERA of 3.75 or less), with a starting pitcher whose gives up less than home run every two starts. Since 2006 this baseball system is 40-8, 83.3 percent.
Free Baseball Trend -2) The Royals Luke Hochevar is 11-0 OVER vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last two seasons with average score 13.1 runs per contest.
Free Baseball Pick -3) Kendall’s on a 16-4 roll and has the Rockies to continue winning despite being injury plagued.
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Who could blame Boston GM Danny Ainge for waving something else this time, like the surrender flag after watching his team get pummeled on their home court by Cleveland. The Cavaliers, with the NBA’s most famous elbow, will look to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series on Sunday afternoon. Later, catch a gander of Phoenix on Mother’s Day, who is unbelievably going for the sweep of San Antonio, after three sharp performances against what has been their biggest nemesis.
Cleveland at Boston 3:30E ABC
At least for Game 3, LeBron James elbow was just fine, since the only pain felt was by Boston on the receiving end of 21 of his 38 points in the opening 12 minutes. The Celtics efforts of gaining home court advantage were vanquished within roughly 30 minutes real time as Cleveland led 36-17 after the first quarter.
“It started with me tonight. Everyone else saw my aggression and took advantage of it,” James said. “I think rest helped me; rest helped all of us, and we were able to put together a complete game for the first time in these playoffs.” This major announcement moved Cleveland to 11-2 ATS record in the second round of the playoffs.
The Celtics have gone from looking like wise veterans to golden oldies throughout the three contests in this series are in a world of hurt without Paul Pierce who continues to be a non-factor. Pierce is shooting 31 percent for the series and 25 percent from beyond the arc and is a shell of the player that was leading his team over Cleveland two years ago.
“We just need Paul to be aggressive,” forward Kevin Garnett said Saturday. “On both ends. Period.”
Pierce has the toughest matchup on the floor, having to guard James and trying to beat the younger, stronger Akron native, who was an All-Defensive team selection this season. “Obviously we do want to get him (Pierce) involved more, he has to get his rhythm better,” Celtics coach Doc Rivers said after practice.
Equally as disturbing is the C’s lack of aggressiveness at home, where they are pedestrian 27-18 at TD Garden, with ghastly 15-29-1 ATS record. Boston is 10-21 ATS in home whites revenging a loss over the last two seasons.
Cleveland again opened as one-point road favorites, with the total up to 197. The wagering public took the bait in Boston and sent them off as Game 3 single point faves. It will be interesting to see what they do this time since the Celtics are 3-12 ATS in downtown Boston when the total is between 195 and 199.5 points. Coach Rivers club is 16-6 OVER off an upset loss as a home favorite.
It will also be noteworthy to view the Cavs state of mind since they have had one complete game in three and are 18-7 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more, winning by 13.3 points a contest. The Cavaliers usually bring a defensive mentality into Sunday’s with 21-7 UNDER record the two seasons.
Phoenix at San Antonio 8:00E TNT
It’s unusual enough to see Phoenix up 3-0 over San Antonio, but it has been the manner in which it has occurred. The Suns have taken it to the Spurs time and again and most of their rebuttals have been have lacked the necessary punch.
Much like a prize fighter having knocked out opponents for years, San Antonio finds themselves trying to land haymakers and the opponent is not flinching when struck, which has to hurt the team’s psyche.
The Suns have so confounded the Spurs, even coach Gregg Popovich has made atypical judgments that have not worked.
San Antonio is 12-23 ATS at the AT&T Center revenging a defeat, but they can’t be entirely blamed since who could possibly have foreseen of the Phoenix lineups that have worked. In Game 2 it was Amare Stoudemire and a group of players known only to Phoenix fans that that fueled a second quarter rally that got Los Suns back to even at halftime and the regulars took care of the rest from there forward.
On Friday night, with Steve Nash, Jason Richardson and Stoudemire on the bench to start the fourth quarter and trailing by a point, coach Alvin Gentry unleashed the “Slovenian slayer” Goran Dragic, who scored 17 points in five minutes in the deciding quarter and 23 all told in the last frame to send Spurs away totally bewildered.
"I knew I was hot," Dragic said, "so I just wanted to have the ball during the pick-and-roll. On a lot of those plays, I had Tim Duncan on my side, and Coach told me if you feel it, shoot it." He and even faster Leandro Barbosa abused the Spurs defensive tactics for 39 points combined, while committing only one turnover.
The Suns are 13-4 ATS away after a combined score of 205 points or more three straight games this season and let’s be truthful, who really wants to play this club right now.
Phoenix actually went off a seven-point underdog in last contest, no more, now down to 3.5-points with 22-8-1 ATS record off a cover. This one is about pride for San Antonio who is 9-3-1 ATS as home favorite, however the Suns bring such an unknown as to what player or groups of players that could rise and shine, the Spurs have to have their heads on swivel trying to figure out where Phoenix will attack next.
With the top seeds having flexed their muscle in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it’s one to Round Two where a series upset or two is always in the realm of possibility.
Here are four solid moneymaking angles from my powerful database that have withstood the test of time throughout 2nd round playoff action. All results are ATS and since 1991, unless noted otherwise. Enjoy.
Three down, but not out Teams that take it on the chin three times in a row do not go down easily in Round Two.
Unlike most other rounds, teams playing off three consecutive losses that are not favored (pick or dog) prove to be resilient this round, going 8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS.
Better yet, if they showed some spark of like in the last game – scoring 82 or more points – these teams tend to take a punch almost as well as Jake LaMotta, going 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in this role.
Thou shall not lay points to a No. 1 seed One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds, namely: never lay points against No.1 seeds.
That’s because inferior teams are just 15-25-1 ATS when playing points into No. 1 seeds since 1996. Worse, if the No. 1 seed is off a SU and ATS loss, lower seeded favorites are just 3-10 ATS. And if the lower seeded favorite beat the top seed and covered the spread by nine or more points, they dip to 1-10 ATS.
Role reversals You may not be comfortable changing roles in a relationship, but NBA teams in this round of the playoffs do.
That’s confirmed by the fact that Round Two dogs off a straight-up loss as a favorite are 29-20 ATS.
When changing roles off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, these puppies bark to the tune of 11-4 ATS, including 10-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of les than .680 on the season.
Running on empty Teams that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up the next game in this round.
That’s evident by a sparkling 20-10-1 ATS mark by Round Two favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game.
Put these favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 15-3 ATS, including 14-1 when laying four or more points.
There you have it. Four reliable betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 2nd round of this year’s NBA playoffs. Use your head and play accordingly.
Sports talk radio and sports forums are loaded with people that have opinions on all kinds of topics. Some are informed, many are not. Throwing out the often tired “_______ sucks” does not qualify as riveting or informed perspective on a particular team or player. If the teams or players are playing good or bad, for the sports bettor, it pays to know and understand why.
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