Betting first two Series of Round Two

The Conference semi-finals begin with a pair of high quality 2 vs 3 matchups, certain to bring a smile to every hoops fan and professional basketball bettor. While upsets are exciting, invariably in the NBA playoffs, it makes for a less than entertaining seven game series in the next round. Each series has one terrific individual head to head matchup which should be reason enough for any hoop head to want to watch.





(3) Orlando vs (2) Detroit Pistons -340 to win series

When these teams met in the playoffs last year, Detroit swept Orlando 4-0, with the Magic at least being competitive from wagering perspective with 1-1-2 ATS record. This season Orlando has make marked improvement, having the third best record in the Eastern Conference. A sure sign of the maturation of the Magic has been winning on the road, were only Boston and the Lakers has better records, with Orlando 27-14 SU and ATS during the regular season. What changed for Orlando was the continued evolution of Dwight Howard, who is inching ever closer to his All-Star Superman persona. He’s emerged as the league’s best center and has a fresh cockiness to his game, without be obnoxious. Hedu Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis have worked cohesively with Howard. If opposing team’s double down on Howard, one or both is open to drill jump shots, or if they start hot early, it opens up the middle for Howard to maneuver more freely. It is no coincidence the Magic 15-6-1 ATS as road dogs and will have a chance to steal Game One of the series.


Rasheed Wallace will be assigned the job of controlling the Orlando big man and he will use his array of tricks to do so. Wallace will kick, knee, push and hold Howard every chance he gets and that starts during the center jump. Wallace will carry a running dialogue to get in his head. From a skill standpoint, Wallace will hope the jump shot is working, forcing Howard out from under the basket, making room for Antonio McDyess, Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton to work underneath. Detroit is 31-12 ATS versus teams like Orlando who make six or more 3-point shots a game on the season. The most evident advantage the Pistons have is in the backcourt, with Hamilton and Chauncey Billups. Orlando turns the ball over three more times per game on average than Detroit, which for practical purposes gives the Pistons four free points a game. Coach Flip Saunders has to encourage Billups to get the ball up the floor faster, as he’s started annoying habit of walking the ball up, wasting three or four seconds per possession.


If this was 2009, no hesitation in taking Orlando to win this series, but as the Pistons showed in last two Philadelphia games, when motivated, they can still play.



Doug's Take – Detroit -340 in six



(3) San Antonio vs (2) New Orleans Spurs -150 to win series


Tony Parker vs Chris Paul for at least four consecutive hook-ups, delicious. A number of experts didn’t even think these two would get together, for the same basic reason, just looking at it differently. Paul and New Orleans were greener than a plush spring lawn in playoff experience to take down fragile, yet battle tested Dallas. The Spurs having won four NBA titles were considered to be like Wilford Brumley (oatmeal guy), to ancient to stand to the charges of a retooled Phoenix squad. In the end, both had plenty of what they needed and handled opponents with ease.


It’s a benefit for the Hornets to have already play San Antonio four times this season (2-2 SU & ATS, because an unsuspecting opponent would have thought they’d been mugged and cheated). New Orleans will open at home as favorites, where they covered 21 of last 28 (75 percent). Chris Paul will still be able to penetrate, just not as often. How you beat San Antonio is with EXTREME patience. You have to be willing to continually settle for 15-18 foot jump shots and you have to make 42-48 percent of them every game. The Spurs will hang out the “Closed” sign most of the time in the lane and as the Suns saw again, they will jump out to defend the three-ball. Dribbling like Steve Nash does is open invitation to hacks and slaps on the wrist, which San Antonio just doesn’t get called for. David West and Tyson Chandler are going to need super-sized series, because the Spurs refuse to beat themselves.


The San Antonio Spurs are the New England Patriots. Loved and admired in the early years of gathering championships, now vilified everywhere but San Antonio metro. Why Greg Popovich will be in the Hall of Fame as a coach is his attention to detail. Since becoming the Spurs coach, he’s been without peer and has developed Bill Belichick dismissive persona to further harbor dislike. No matter one’s feelings, Pops has three stars and like a handyman’s toolbox, he has just the right tool to find sitting on the bench to defeat any opponent. Oddsmakers make it impossible to collect money on a consistent basis on the Black and Silver clad Spurs, thus all they do is win games, especially this time of year.


The Spurs are only 23-20 and 16-27 ATS on the road this season and will not have home court advantage. This often is the first true signal of decline. Just maybe the Hornets 33-11 and 28-16 ATS home record can surprise, especially knowing San Antonio is just 7-12 SU and against the spread as the visitor since Jan. 1 against teams that made the postseason.



Doug's Take – New Orleans +120 in seven

Sun Setting in Phoenix

Yesterday I explained why it was right to let Avery Johnson go, today I'll explain why current Phoenix Suns coach will resign. Let's start with the fact Mike D'Antoni firmly believes his offensive style of play can and does work. His belief of pushing the ball up and shooting within seven seconds (roughly) helped turn around a Phoenix franchise going nowhere. Where he and his team ran into problems was the playoffs. D'Antoni never seemed to grasp that his team couldn't will the opposition into playing faster and his team played too poor of defense, especially at critical junctures to win enough series.

Steve Kerr has a resume that included playing for championship teams in both Chicago and San Antonio. He was always a glib interview in his playing days and learned to make short direct comments on TNT as analyst. This hardly is cause to make him a GM of an already successful franchise, but he does have more rings than Luc Longley, so maybe that's enough. Of course having an already friendly relationship with owner Robert Sarver was, how do I say this, ahh, a bonus.

Right from the start friction ensued. Kerr, though a shooter with limited defensive skills believes he understood the value of defense and tried to "suggest" to D'Antoni more time needed to be placed on stronger defensive principles. Not surprisingly, D'Antoni embraced this like a head cold and went about his business. While mixed messages surfaced, the three Amigos (Sarver, Kerr, D'Antoni) seemed in agreement bringing Shaq on board was a great idea to enhance the Suns chances of winning NBA title. Of course this did not work, as the Big Cactus showmanship hustle was more for show than results. At 36, Shaq can still be effective, just not as an every game 30+ minutes starter. He was not the reason they lost to the Spurs, it was a collective effort.

Steve Nash is no longer a MVP player, he's probably the fourth best point guard in the West and will not become better at 34 years old. Amare Stoudemire actually flashed unseen defensive skills, but at the four spot, not as a center. Raja Bell is a nice complimentary player at 31 and was anyone really surprised Grant Hill broke down?

D'Antoni so firmly believes in his system, he takes on a Paul Westhead quality in believing offense can win, without enough defense. He also made mistakes against the Spurs, after Boris Diaw got his mojo on in what was a meaningless Game 4, he structured his offense to go thru Diaw in Game 5. Why?

Like Dallas, time has passed this team by. San Antonio had less talent, had to go even further further into bag of cheap tricks and through mental toughness survived to beat a mentally soft club.

Kerr has said he wants D'Antoni back, mostly because Sarver owes him 8.5 million for last two years. Kerr want him back IF D'Antoni will change and stress more defense and less offense. With this roster that seems impossible. Look for D'Antoni to resign with severance package, wholly committed to his beliefs in a new location. Kerr then can handpick his coach and seek more balance on both sides of the floor, meaning the Suns record plummets for the short term.

Avery Johnson disowned in Dallas

I saw where Gregg Doyel of CBSSportsline.com called Mark Cuban insane for firing Avery Johnson as the coach of his team. You can read it for yourself, but I support Cuban's decision whole-heartedly. Doyel states, "Johnson didn't go from coaching savant to idiot overnight." What? Johnson a coaching savant? If you took poll of NBA general managers and scouts that watch the various teams play, I guarantee Johnson would only make a handful of anyone top 10, with most listing him at number 10. Take the last three playoff series Dallas has lost.

Playoff basketball is about matchups and coaching adjustments on game by game basis. Three years ago, Dallas was the best team in basketball period. They were up 2-0 in Miami in the Finals and folded quicker than Phil Hellmuth with a three and seven hole card in off suits. The Mavericks completely lost their poise, (which included the coach) and lost to an inferior Miami team. Pat Riley made adjustments of which Johnson had no clue to counter.

Last season Dallas was the one seed and Golden State was eighth. I'll give anybody the Warriors were a bad matchup for Dallas based on the styles of the two teams. Still, you have to ask yourself, each team played 82 games to earn their postseason spot. Should a well-coached team with better talent, ever lose four games to an 8-seed? The answer is without a doubt NO. Johnson had no answers, this fragile mix of headcases that collapse at the first sign of adversity did not have the leadership on the floor or from the coach to defeat Don Nelson's tricky team.

This season, the Mavericks regressed, ending up the seventh seed in the difficult Western Conference and barely with a whimper were dismissed by New Orleans who had as much playoff experience a Clippers fan. Some will feel sorry for Johnson saddled with Jason Kidd whose career is over and just needs to be told. But the truth is he was never comfortable with Devin Harris, thus Cuban and the front office rolled snake-eyes.

A look at the Dallas roster shows a lot of players that will be 30-years old or more, meaning they are not likely to get better. Johnson's had three solid years to deliver a title to Big D and failed, for the most part, miserably. Myself, I'd hire a hard-ass coach the players would respect and take one more shot, adding a few missing ingredients. I'd make Josh Howard captain of the team (though that could go up in smoke) and move beyond Dirk, since he's has ample opportunity. Will this work, I doubt it, but you can't get rid of all the softies at once.

Attack the Phoenix situation tomorrow.

Weekend Observations

Went to California and Arizona State college baseball game this past Friday night. Both teams came in rated in the top seven in polls. The Sun Devils are noted this season for ability to hit and they did just that in piling up 11 runs. About eight MLB scouts by my count, were at the game to watch Bears RH Tyson Ross. Never was able to get a good angle to see how hard he actually threw, but was intrigued about how they scouted a prospect. Of course they checked his velocity early, they waited a couple of innings and checked again. When his pitch count was getting up in numbers, the scouts pulled the radar guns out again.

Ross reminded me of old Cardinals RH Jaquin Andujar. His body type was very loose. On this night he did not has his best stuff in allowing eight hits and five walks in just over five innings. What was most impressive, was his ability to change speeds with undetectable motion.

In the NBA, the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks are like a chocolate chip cookie right out of the oven. They look delicious, pass the taste, but after being exposed to the elements (in this case the NBA Playoffs), they crumble apart after a few days. As it turns out, these teams are poorly constructed for postseason basketball, have the heart of the Tin Man and are much like the cowardly lion (lacking courage for those not familiar) from the Wizard of Oz.

Both will be eliminated soon and the owners of each team will have to ask themselves is it time to start over, because each had a shot and failed to win a title when they could have.

I used to admire the San Antonio Spurs, the organization was and probably still is the best in the basketball. While still holding the organization in high regard, the Spurs players and coaching staff have turned into whiny babies. Every trip to the lane should result in a foul on the opposition. For the most part, San Antonio players NEVER commit fouls, unless they intentionally do so, otherwise Coach Pop trots out the standing stare at the referees. Greatness is something to be appreciated and is often not, but when you have to stoop to have players like Bruce Bowen, cry about every call and do the cretinous Hack-a-Shaq ploy, is this really what champions are made of? The Admiral, David Robinson embodied what was right about the San Antonio franchise.