Saturday Wagering Thoughts

Today really like Sacramento with the +8.5. New Orleans has had a great season, yet off emotional loss to Lakers last night and trying to secure best of the West, too many points. Also like Utah -5.5 against Denver. This has been a big home floor series and though the Nuggets are still to fend off Golden State, they won't here.

In baseball, taking Baltimore at +111 because starter Dan Cabrera is 6-0 when starting against Rays and Jason Hammels is 0-3 with ERA of almost 9 vs. the O's. Might have more baseball later.

Look for Anaheim to bounce back after stupid performance against Dallas in game one of NHL Playoffs.

Not a big Arena Football player, but love San Jose catching 5.5 points at home. The Sabercats are 13-4 ATS in home games after allowing 63 points or more last game. They are defending champs taking on unbeaten team.

Good Luck today.

Hump Day Thoughts

What a great game the national championship was! Their is no denying Memphis, well you know, didn't finish. Though I hate to use the "c" word, maybe the best way to describe what happened is, it very difficult to shoot free throws with one hand around your neck.

After shooting free throws so badly all season, it made no sense how they could suddenly start shooting so well in the tournament. The law of average caught up to the Tigers based on previous perfomances. Nevertheless, Kansas had to made all the shots and clutch baskets. I can proudly say I picked the Jayhawks and made a nice sum of money at 5-1 odds.

With the NHL playoffs starting and having the coolest trophy in sports in the Stanley Cup, isn't it awful the NCAA trophy looked like something you order online for $19.99 plus free shipping. Seriously, CBS forked over a billion dollars for the TV and the online rights, the NCAA can't afford a trophy that looks like it has some stature. I'd wager the lacrosse trophy looks better than that cheap thing.

Finished the NCAA Tournament 13-9-1, 54.5 percent, which isn't all that bad after 3-5 start.

Tonight played the following:

NBA - 2* New York

NHL - Calgary +169 (more on why later)

MLB - Baltimore +134, White Sox -128

Strong Opinion
Pittsburgh +124

Good Luck

NCAA Title Game Pick

I picked the Kansas to cut down the nets tonight. What impressed me before the tournament was the intensity seldom seen by Bill Self teams, having the killer instinct. Take away the near choke job against Davidson, the Jayhawks last 10 wins have been by 20.6 points per game.

The numbers I worked up show Memphis by one, thus until the flurry of activity today, probably was a fair number. What has impressed me about Memphis is how this team has grown emotionally. When they were undefeated playing Tennessee at home, they came out shooting three’s and making them like they had something to prove against doubting public. As expected they went cold and showed the lack of maturity in still chucking up the lame ducks that were clanking off the rim. Since then, they have learned to trust the inside players more, leaving greater opportunities for Chris Douglas-Roberts inside and out, along with creating more room for explosive Derrick Rose to penetrate. John Calipari, has turned into Jerry Tarkanian without all the previous baggage.

With the switch in favorites, you still can’t ignore the last 10 times a team has been the betting public’s choice by five or fewer points they are 10-0 SU and ATS. At the same time, Bill Self would know his team beat the number one team in the country, was favored to win and is now an underdog. Besides the obvious significance of the game, this is a coach’s dream for motivational speech. Self, dating back to his days at Illinois and Tulsa, is 16-4 against the spread off a win as underdog. Kansas is also 7-1 ATS as underdogs.

Why I like Kansas is because I think the bench is a bit more productive. Sasha Kaun has scored points in big situations and Sherrod Collins is instant excitement. That’s not to say Memphis bench is bad, just not as good as the Jayhawks.

I see the first team to 75 points wins the game and I believe that will be Kansas.