Saturday Selections

Came back to earth a bit with 1-2 day, yet are still 56-38-3, 59.5 percent in over a month of plays. I’ll be the first to admit that money lines are much easier to win than spreads. And yes, 3Daily Winners record does not reflect units on money lines, since I don’t have the time to mess around trying to keep records of that also. But when you consider there are very few places on the internet you could go anywhere and find a record like this over an extended period of time, for free, you know you have a pretty decent deal. Hopefully you also enjoy reading the articles, since the idea is to inform and teach and get better at this difficult game. Before football season comes around, their will be improvements here that hopefully will make you want to visit us every day if you don’t already. Feedback welcome.

Found a MLB system that makes a great deal of sense and though it won’t be official play, it’s on my bets for today with 43-11 record. Slick Rick is slicker than a bikini wax and has another smooth Free Play. The Top Trend is in the AL and has teeth to it (based on team nickname). Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – Going to the doctor is a lot like going to a large amusement park. Though you may be 10 yards away from destination when you first arrive, it can take upwards of 90 minutes to two hours to finally get to what you intended initially to do.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150, when a bad offensive team like San Diego is averaging 4.1 or less runs per game, against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season. Though just missing as 80 percent qualifying system, pretty darn good at 43-11, 79.6 percent with 2-0 record in 2009.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Detroit Tigers are is 15-2 after two straight games where they stranded five or less runners on base since last season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick of the Left Coast Connection picked up three more winners taking him to sizzling 22-4-1 and he has Toronto on his radar today.

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Friday Forecast

Will take a 2-1 record any day of the week and have bettor’s delight with sharp underdog as Top Trend. Slick Rick continues to mow down winners and releases another in the AL tonight as Free Play. Have a killer MLB system at an arousing 85.1 percent. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs like Seattle with a money line of +125 to +175, who are below average AL hitting team (BA .265 or less) against a team with a superior bullpen (ERA of 3.75 or less), playing on Friday. This is a real kick-butt system at 40-7, 85.1 percent and is coming up for the first time this year.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Joe Saunders and the Halos are 10-1 (+10.7 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick continues to roll with 19-4-1 record and like the Tigers to hunt down Oakland.

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Betting Baseball with numbers that matter

Over the last couple of decades, intelligent baseball fans have moved away from the rudimentary statistics to more thought-provoking and useful numbers. The ideas of batting average and earned run average telling the whole story just isn’t true anymore and we moved ahead to more sophisticated methods of measuring performance.

From the batting perspective, one commonly seen on television and heard on radio broadcasts is on-base percentage. Some may wonder how an on-base percentage is calculated.

You add together hits, walks and hit by pitch and divide that by at bats, walks, hit by pitch and sacrifice flies.

What we learn from on-base percentage is the hitting value of the player to the team. For example, Ted Williams hold the all-time record for OBP for career at .481. Second is Babe Ruth at .474 and others in the top 10 includes Lou Gehrig, Barry Bonds, Rogers Hornsby and Ty Cobb. In the top 15 all-time are a couple of modern day players, Todd Helton and Albert Pujols.
Why is OBP valuable to sports bettors?

Start with the fact the easiest way to score runs is having men on base. Former Baltimore Orioles manager Earl Weaver said the best offense play in the game was a three-run homer and while you can’t argue with his logic, two players had to get on base for that to occur. Many of the all-time great pitchers gave up 20 or more home runs a year, even into the 30’s, but they limited damage by having them be solo shots.

On-base percentage means players are willing to help the team. These hitters will take walks, adding to hurlers pitch counts, and play the game the right way, by hitting to opposite field if pitcher works the outside corner continually or with two strikes.

A quick review of the top five teams in Major League Baseball for OBP looks like this.

L.A. Dodgers .374
N.Y. Mets .369
Boston .366
Washington .361 (see pitching numbers)
Toronto .359

Three of these teams are in first place in their respective divisions and the Red Sox are right on the heels of the Blue Jays. Though Manny Ramirez is suspended, his work ethic and attention to detail has rubbed off on his Dodgers teammates. The Mets have been more patient at the dish and are 5th in walks. Boston is just being Boston and Toronto manager Cito Gaston has convinced his team to be more aggressive at the plate, yet be selective at what you swing at. After having doubts, maybe Nationals third-sacker Ryan Zimmerman is correct is saying “….we’re better than our record shows”, however allowing six runs per game puts a great deal of pressure on any offense.

Another aspect to think about is what a quality OBP does to opposing teams pitching staff. The pitch count aspect has already been mentioned for starting pitchers, which transcends into more innings for bullpens. This is an area that is a moving target for many teams from year to year, as teams feel compelled to pay everyday ball players more and will let go of effective reliever over cost concerns.

Drilling down, we find only 10 teams have a bullpen ERA of less than 3.80, suggesting batters going to the plate with an idea to execute could see tasty deliveries coming their way.

Reviewing the other end of the spectrum here are the five worst teams in OBP.

Seattle .307
Arizona .307
San Francisco .314
Oakland .314
San Diego .314

Two of the five clubs are in the bottom five for walks (Mariners and Giants). Only San Francisco has a record above .500, but that has been due to superior starting pitching, led by Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and the possible revitalization of Barry Zito. It would be rare to see Seattle, Oakland and San Diego at the top of this list anyways, since they play in parks conducive to pitching. Nevertheless, all these teams lack talented hitters and the ones on the active roster go up to the plate just hacking, making them easy fodder for pitchers that can hit the right spots.

Arizona is the biggest disgrace, since the core players on the team should be approaching best years. The Snakes have to tie their shoes extra tight, because they swing so hard trying to jack everything over the fence. To this point, the D-Backs hitters have shown no adaptability to wanting to improve and strike out or hit lazy pop-ups and fly balls.

Winning against those setting the line is never easy, but utilizing tools like on-base percentage can keep you in the black.

MLB Series Wagering- Brewers at Cardinals

The top two teams in the National League Central Division will collide near the shores of the Mississippi River for a weekend series. Milwaukee has been one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning nine of 11 and doing so in impressive fashion. The Brewers have scored 6.8 runs per game, while looking like “Harvey’s Wallbangers” (circa 1982), sending 18 balls over the fence. During this same period, opposing teams have only mustered just over four runs a contest, showing Milwaukee has really been clubbing the competition.

After a 2-4 road trip, St. Louis returns home for an attention-grabbing homestand. They start with Milwaukee, followed by the Cubs and commence interleague action against in- state rival Kansas City. Though seldom mentioned publicly, the Cardinals are one of the teams that do not enjoy the Brewers act. Milwaukee is known in baseball circles as being a bit showier about their actions and reactions. Skipper Tony LaRussa being more old-school in baseball traditions, doesn’t always appreciate some of what they do and over the last couple of years there has been a dust-up or two between these division rivals.

Milwaukee is 11-2 having won three of last four games and sends ace Yovani Gallardo (4-1, 3.09 ERA) up the hill. Gallardo was handed the role of being top pitcher for Milwaukee and has responded. He’s struck-out better than a batter per inning and has 1.80 ERA in last three starts. If he continues to pitch this way, he’ll improve the Brewers 24-7 record with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games.

The Cardinals will look to get Kyle Lohse (3-2, 4.25) back on track after a pair of rugged outings. Lohse was 3-0 with 1.97 ERA in April, but has been bombed in first two starts in May for 13 runs, 16 hits (three home runs) in 10 1/3 innings. The Cardinals are 27-13 vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start and Lohse has always been an effective pitcher at home against division teams with 37-17 mark (team’s record) during his career.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Milwaukee as -115 road favorites with total of 8.5 and Lohse is 17-6 at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last three seasons. (team's record) This being a low scoring affair would not be a surprise, with the Brewers 17-6 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 and the Cards 13-3 UNDER at home vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better.

Game 1 Edge: Milwaukee

Coming into the series, these were the No.2 and No.3 scoring teams in the National League behind the Dodgers. St. Louis has lost some of its firepower with outfielders Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel on the DL. This means they have to work harder to manufacture runs and would like to believe they have the right pitcher to help slow down Milwaukee offense. Adam Wainwright (3-1, 4.35) and the Redbirds are 16-5 in his last 21 home starts and he’s been particularly effective if opponent has winning record with 10-1 mark. Milwaukee will need to have same patience they have shown at the dish all season in being second in baseball in walks and make Wainwright bring the ball up.

They will counter with Jeff Suppan (2-3, 5.50) who was part of the 2006 World Series championship team in the Gateway City. With the off day last Monday, that gave the righthander an extra day of rest and he is 4-0 pitching with five days between games. Suppan has enjoyed facing his old team and is 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA since becoming a Brewer. Only negative is the Crew and Suppan are 3-10 in road games against teams with winning records.

Game 2 Edge: St. Louis

The Redbirds might have a slight advantage coming into this game as they were 9-5 playing in daylight compared to Milwaukee’s 6-5 mark before Saturday’s contest. The outcome could be decided early for the series finals. Todd Wellemeyer (3-3, 5.80) has started poorly in most every start. Too many times, he's dug himself too deep a hole to be able to dig out, with opposing teams hitting an arresting .337 against him.

Milwaukee’s Manny Parra (2-4, 4.82) was on much the same path with 0-4 start, but has bounced back with consecutive wins. Surprisingly, the lefthander has not held lefty hitters in check, with them batting .321 against him compared to .246 by righty’s. Parra’s control is still an issue as he walks almost six batters per nine innings and has yet to get past six innings this season. The Cardinals are 7-4 against left-hand starters this season.

Game 3 Edge: Milwaukee

Milwaukee has won eight of 15 at the newer Busch Stadium and right now is in a great groove. This team has matured to the point of they now play much better on the road (9-7 this season) then in the past. If the Cardinals had all their top guns in the lineup, might be inclined to look their way, but since they don’t, the Brewers look like the play for this series wager.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Milwaukee +130, St. Louis -160

StatFox Edge Pick: Milwaukee

2009 Record – 1-4

Three Plays for Thursday

On Tuesday we had 3-0 day, taking record to 53-35-3, 60.2 percent. Really light in top quality systems today for some reason, thus today’s is very solid, however it won’t count officially. Got a terrific trend in a game in the Windy City that is perfect 12-0. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – It does little good to be ill since there is nothing on television.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for four or more earned runs, against opponent after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more earned runs. This system is 62-20, 75.6 percent, including perfect 4-0 in 2009. The play against team is the Houston Astros.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Ryan Dempster and the Chicago Cubs are 12-0 in home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick continues to pile up the cash with 17-4-1 record and is playing the Yankees tonight.

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Rugged choices for bettors in pair of Game 6’s

The Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers proved their mettle in Game 5’s in different ways. Boston showed the true heart of a champion in overcoming 14-point deficit to oust Orlando 92-88. The Lakers on the other hand reeked with determination and easily buried an out-classed and undermanned Houston club. What will Game 6 provide, lets take a look inside.

The Orlando Magic is quickly becoming the Houston Astros and Washington Nationals of playoff basketball. The ‘Stros and Nats lead the majors in blown saves with 10 and the Magic keep coming up more empty than a group of guys leaving Hooters on Church Street in downtown Orlando at closing.

It is evident Orlando is the better team without Kevin Garnett playing for Boston, yet this Celtics team keeps fighting, clawing and scratching to win, which is a testament to the players and coach Doc Rivers. The Celtics are a team Al Davis would love, “Just win baby” and they manage to just so as compared to the Raiders. Boston makes one more trip South and is 8-2-1 ATS on the road.

Dwight Howard was right and wrong to call out his coach Stan Van Gundy about touches in the fourth quarter. He was wrong in the sense you don’t do that after losing a game you clearly had in the bag and let escape, down 3-2 in postseason. He is right that this has been a continual pattern for Orlando in the playoffs, blowing big leads, sometimes winning and sometimes not.

Looking into the issue deeper, here is what is uncovered. If Howard, aka “Superman” is such a dynamic offensive threat, why don’t his own players trust him in the last five minutes of the game? NBA players might not be the sharpest lot off the court, but they understand the game. Are Orlando players too concerned that Howard will make a turnover with the ball at crunch time? Does Howard really work to get the ball, spreading himself out to demand it? Finally, some believe Howard in the best center in the NBA right now, which by my calculations in similar to being heavyweight boxing champion, doesn’t mean much.

Let’s not forget, Howard is a rebounding and dunking machine, but his post moves couldn’t fill a Dunkin Donuts Yahoo sports minute.

Oddsmakers at Diamond Sportsbook.com see an angry Orlando club looking to square the series at 3-3 and have made them the largest favorite of the series at seven-points, with total of 190. The Magic are 12-4 ATS off a road loss this season and are 7-1 UNDER off a spread loss.

Van Gundy received deserved criticism for playing J.J. Redick 29 minutes in Game 5, especially when he had only one basket.

Boston is 17-4 ATS after a win by six points or less this season and is 14-6 UNDER after consecutive wins. The C’s don’t win last contest without Stephon Marbury, can he deliver again?

The L.A. Lakers finally showed why they are best wager to win the NBA title. The Los Angeles Zen Master would never sink to such low depths of using simple math to motivate his team, but the Lakers are NBA champions if they understand 12 x 4 = 48.

Los Angeles showed they are capable of playing all 48 minutes, though in Game 5 they really didn’t need to. They shot over 51 percent, manufactured countless steals and actually showed toughness with Lamar Odom battling through bad back to play 19 minutes.

The Lakers are 31-14 (24-20-1 ATS) as visitors and if they come to play, should win this contest to close out series. It is all about steely resolve and Phil Jackson’s Lakers’ teams are 11-1 ATS in road games after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half.

Houston is on the receiving end of nine-points with total of 197. The Rockets have no chance to win if they can’t contain Lakers and not let them sniff the century mark. Houston is 15-4 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points and it comes as no surprise the average total score in those contests is 186.9. Rick Adelman’s club is 13-4 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more this season, but that included the big man in the middle.

The coverage turns over to ESPN on Thursday starting at 7 Eastern and the series leaders either closeout or head back home for Game 7 finale.

It's going to be empty Wednesday

Thanks for looking in, but I have the flu in a very bad way and will not be able to offer anything today. Hopefully with rest and fluids be back at you tomorrow.

Doug - 3DW

Anything possible in Denver for Game 5

For a series that has been either as bland as guacamole or as fiery as 100 jalapeño peppers, this next game has caught the attention of sports fans, bloggers, those on Twitter and sports bettors. Nobody expects Dallas to emerge victorious after losing first three games to Denver, however this is kind of like discovering a television show that you’ve grown to like recently and just found out it is about to be cancelled.

The first two games in Denver were like old episodes of the Andy Griffith show on TV Land. Mildly entertaining, with an outcome you saw coming. When the venue changed to Dallas, all of the sudden it looked like an episode of American Chopper.

Without going over ALL the delicious details, Mavericks owner Mark Cuban loses cool and calls out Kenyon Martin’s mother. After seeing the commotion he caused, he later apologizes. Kind of like throwing confetti and realizing later somebody has to clean it up.

Kenyon Martin evidently bought the Rosetta Stone version of Al Pacino in “Scarface” after Game 3 and let those in attendance and to a lesser degree those on television, share his new language and was particularly fond of one word he used over and over again.

If you are a Dallas fan, you can take solace in the fact; your team avoided being swept. The Mavericks to a man showed guts and pride, seldom associated with teams down 3-0. Dirk Nowitzki looked exactly like the same player that led Dallas to NBA Finals a few years ago. Josh Howard is running like Yao Ming, without the broken bones and showed extreme courage. The Mavs laid it all on the line and is 14-5 ATS after a combined score of 215 points or more this season.

The Denver bettor and fan is far from disappointed, as the Nuggets covered the spread for a ninth consecutive time. Denver didn’t play A-Game or put forth much defensive effort, yet could look at the box score and see 12 missed free throws cost them a chance at victory.
Coach George Karl had his first off game of the postseason also, failing to have his team switch properly on high screen and rolls and not doubling Nowitzki more, as Martin was schooled like a high-schooler.

There is blood in the water for Game 5 and Denver knows it. They are 38-8 (28-17-1 ATS) at the Pepsi Center and 15-4 ATS after allowing 100 points or more three straight games this season. Chris Anderson should be back to add energy, after missing last contest and Nuggets fans in attendance will be able to share the same kind of joy Mavs fans did two nights ago.
No need to worry about Carmelo Anthony or Chauncey Billups, they will be fine, it’s K-Mart who needs to take his game from the discount aisle back to blue light special.

DiamondSportsbook.com is offering the Nuggets as 9.5-point favorites and they are 10-1 ATS as a home chalk of 6.5 to 9 points this season. The total will be the highest of the series at 213.5 and Denver has to crash the boards with more authority and is 14-3 OVER in home games after consecutive affairs being outrebounded by opponent by 10 or more.

Is Dallas really capable of another max effort game on the road? The Mavericks are 3-12 ATS on the road after failing to cover four of their last five contests and are 24-10 OVER in the second round of the playoffs.

It’s too bad this won’t be a seven game series, since it has certainly turned dramatic and nobody does drama like TNT, who has Game 5 at 9 Eastern. Still, difficult to not see Denver is 8-2 and 9-1 ATS at home versus Dallas, even if they serve Pepsi Throwback at the Pepsi Center.

Time for a Terrific Tuesday

Came in at .500 yesterday with 1-1-1 record. Found a rare perfect Totals Trend in the senior circuit. Slick Rick delivered a winner and goes for another on the base paths. Today’s best system is 80 percent and 5-1 this year. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – The Washington and Pittsburgh NHL series has been every bit as good as hoped for and can’t wait for Game 7.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home teams like the Mets, who are good hitting team (BA .275 or higher), against a good NL starting pitcher with ERA of 3.70 or less in May games. This simple system is 36-9, 80 percent, including 5-1 this year.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Washington Nats are 10-0 OVER after two games with no homers.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick is now 10-2-1 the last four days and likes Toronto behind Roy Halladay.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Will NBA home teams have heart tonight?

Both of Tuesday night’s NBA playoff series are tied at 2-2. In their previous contest, one of tonight’s home teams played with heart and the other was flat-lined. Each team will be able to retake the lead in the series and be one game away from advancing, with the question remaining; will the blood be pumping at enough of a rapid pace to finish the job?

For those that placed a futures wager on the Los Angeles Lakers to be NBA champions, you probably feel like you are being setup as part of a Ponzi scheme, with your money being leveraged to pay of somebody else if you were to lose.

Just when it seemed the Lakers couldn’t play any worse than they did in non-caring Game 1 performance, they sink three levels lower. The only player with a noticeable pulse in Houston Sunday was Jordan Farmar and when he is your hardest working player, it’s going to be a long four quarters.

For all the talk of playing more physical and being mentally tougher, Los Angeles looks very much like the team that played Boston in finals last year and was soft. If you think the Lakers come out and play like they are on fire, you might want to dial back expectations, since they are 8-27 ATS off a double digit loss as a favorite of six points or more.

Without Yao Ming, it’s very difficult for anyone not drinking Houston Rockets red kool-aid to believe Houston really has a chance to win the series. It would be one of the all-time great NBA playoff upsets if it were to happen, given the current circumstances, but unlike the Lakers, the Rockets play with a greater passion and genuinely seem to care, as opposed to their opponent.

No Yao means larger spread and DiamondSportsbook.com has the L.A. favored by 12, with 198 total. The Rockets are 19-7 ATS as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points and 19-7 UNDER if opponent plays over .600 basketball. The Lakers 14-27 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss and 9-1 UNDER after a game with 15 or less assists.

Earlier on the other coast, the Boston Celtics will try to do something they have failed to do in this series, win an odd-numbered contest. Boston has yet to lead in this series and can go up with a win. After being demolished in Game 3, the Celtics showed heart and guts in squeaking by Orlando 95-94 as five–point underdogs.

Boston even showed trust and faith in one another as teammates, as Paul Pierce passed out double-team, of what would have been a nearly impossible shot to make and found wide open Glen Davis who baby-ed in medium range jump shot for the winner.

“Since I have been with the Celtics, I have been trying to fine my niche in our system,” Davis said. “Doc (Rivers) told me that if you work on that shot and show me you can make it, I am going to let you shoot it. This year has been proof of hard work. You just have to be focused.”

Boston returns home as 2.5-point home favorites and they are not a lock to take command of series. In the postseason alone they are 4-2 SU with only two covers at TD Northbank and are 7-15 ATS as home favorites. The better news is they have carried momentum forward and are 15-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog.

The loss by Orlando was certainly deflating, however the Magic have been resilient and are 18-6 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite. The negative is Dwight Howard’s team is 4-13 ATS in Bean-Town.

The total of 192 appears to be a compromise of the first four games. Boston is 9-1 OVER in a home game when the total is between 190 and 194.5 points this season and Orlando is 6-1 UNDER off a spread loss.

Tonight’s NBA action starts at 8 Eastern on TNT in Boston and immediately following the scene shifts to L.A. This is no place for the meek of heart and it will show this evening.

Keeping track of the Numbers Game

Every now and again it is a good time to take stock of things around us. Though we feel everything is under control, sometimes our perceptions don’t deal with the facts and we go around thinking we have the right information, when we really don’t. Decided to take some time and do some digging and see what can be found in the three major sports that are playing presently.

NBA

Wagering on the playoffs tends to be unsettling for most sports bettors. Starting with you can watch virtually every game and just have so few contests to take into account for, it’s as easy as grabbing that one more piece of pizza, when you have already had one too many. It can be a quixotic crusade if one gets upside down or if things go well, a real confidence booster.

Home Favorites against the spread have been about as ordinary has the come with 24-25-1 ATS record, with the chalk 36-14 straight up. The totals have shown a modest lean to the OVER side with 28-22 mark.

Road Favorites are 7-3 and 5-4-1 ATS and have played UNDER in eight of 10 meetings, including 6-0 UNDER in the Eastern Conference.

NHL

As usual, home ice is not especially important in the Stanley Cup playoffs, particularly early. The difference in talent between a high seed and low seed is not as dramatic as what you will find in professional basketball. Overall, home favorites are 29-21, with teams in the Western Conference doing a better job at 15-8.

Because postseason hockey is less free-wheeling, the UNDER is often a solid play and again has been in 2009 with 26-19-5 record.

Big home favorites (-200 or higher) have shown a real division by conferences thus far. East home faves are 4-0 and 3-1 OVER, while out West, they are losing proposition at 4-3 and are 5-1-1 UNDER.

Road favorites are 9-6 and the totals have been down the middle in these contests with 5-5-5 showing.

MLB

Toronto and the Los Angeles Dodgers have been the best teams in respective leagues to this point and winning wagers. The Blue Jays are 22-12, +9.4 units and the Dodgers are 22-11, +8.8 units. These teams are not flukes either, with Toronto +50 run differential and L.A. +57, each easily the best in their leagues.

In trying to spot frauds or clubs on the rise, its noteworthy the New York Yankees have allowed the most runs in baseball at 6.2 per game, including seven or more in 12 different games.

If Oakland can find offense, they might make large improvement. The A’s are only -10 run differential and are third in the American League in runs allowed at 131. The bullpen has been tremendous with 2.82 ERA, however scoring only 4.17 runs a game leaves at 11-18. They have been particularly vulnerable against left-hand starters with 3-11 mark.

Maybe the numbers will even out later, but Colorado is 12-18, despite a +3 run difference. The Rockies have been bitten by the one run bug, with 1-8 record in close encounters thus far in 2009.

If you don’t have MLB.TV, you are missing something as a sports bettor. Zack Greinke suffered his first loss of the season at the Big A in Anaheim Saturday, losing 1-0 to Joe Saunders and the Angels. Greinke went into that game just the third pitcher in baseball history to start 6-0 with ERA under 0.50 (Fernando Valenzuela and Walter Johnson the others). Though the 25-year old didn’t have his best stuff of the season, he allowed four hits over eight innings, with five strikeouts and no walks. Not giving up a free pass was particularly impressive, as he went to three balls with a number of Angels hitters.

Saunders was even more outstanding, yielding no runs on five hits, with six K’s and one walk in complete game shutout.

Greinke gave up double to Gary Mathews Jr. and two sacrifices later, Saunders had all the runs he needed in snappy 2:05 of old school baseball that was far from dull despite the score.

Thoughts and Opinions from HOS

So Long To A Class Act

NBA Hall of Famer Chuck Daly, who coached the Dream Team to the Olympic gold medal in 1992 after winning back-to-back NBA championships with the Detroit Pistons, died over the weekend at the age of 78. Perhaps more than any other professional basketball coach, Daly was able to transform a group of marginally talented players with wildly divergent personalities into a cohesive, motivated unit (remember Bill Laimbeer and Dennis Rodman?). Daly took over the Pistons in 1983 and led them to nine consecutive winning seasons. After leaving Detroit, he coached New Jersey and Vancouver before retiring in 1998. A snappy dresser, Daly will forever be remembered by the nickname Daddy Rich, bestowed upon him by Piston John Salley in honor of Daly’s penchant for impeccably tailored suits. Here’s to you, Chuck...

What’s In A Name?

This year’s ‘Mr. Irrelevant’ – the final player chosen in the NFL Draft – has been saddled all his life with a name that sounds like a vulgar insult. So when he appeared before the Kansas City media during a rookie minicamp on Saturday, he was ready for question No. 1. Your last name — uh, exactly how is it pronounced? “It’s ‘suck-up,’, believe it or not,” Ryan Succop said with a big, good-natured grin. When the room fell silent, he looked around and grinned again. “I’ve heard them all,” he said. “If you come up with something new, I’ll be impressed.” Succop failed to mention that he was teammates on last year’s South Carolina Gamecocks team with QB Chris Smelley.

Not So Fast, My Friends

With an injured Yao Ming on the bench for Sunday’s LA Lakers - Houston Rockets NBA Playoff game, the wagering public knew the Rockets had no chance to win and bet accordingly. WRONG! The line closed with Houston a whopping 8-point underdog and the home team never needed the points, cruising to a 99-87 upset that evened their Western Conference semifinal at two games apiece. Houston’s Shane Battier, who sank five 3-pointers while adding 23 points, said it best: “I think everyone but us got the memo that we weren’t supposed to show up without Yao.” The Lakers Kobe Bryant was held to a mere 15 points in the loss and the series now shifts back to LA where the home team has been installed as 12-point chalk in tomorrow night’s contest.

Horning In On The Action

Obviously distressed by all the attention given to Manny Ramirez’ recent drug-related suspension, NASCAR’s Jeremy Mayfield proved that the stock car boys can fail a random drug test just as easily as Major League Baseball players. Mayfield tested positive for a banned substance last weekend at Richmond International Raceway and has been suspended indefinitely by the sport’s ruling body. One thing is for sure: the substance could NOT have been performance-enhancing. Mayfield is currently mired in 44th spot in the 2009 Sprint Cup points standings, 1153 points behind leader Jeff Gordon.

Quote of the Week

Miami Herald columnist Greg Cote, arguing that QB Michael Vick should be reinstated in the NFL:“Ever hear of Leonard Little? The veteran St. Louis Rams defensive end once killed a woman while driving drunk. He was playing in a Super Bowl 16 months later. It was not to be his last DUI episode, either. He’s still in the league. But Vick can’t be? I’m sorry, anamalitos, but what Little did to that woman’s family is worse that what Vick did. By a lot. ”

Infomation from the House of Sports.

Firing up another week of wagering action

Back to back 2-1 days leaves us 49-34-2. Though a pretty thin day in sports found a super Trend in the NBA and dug around and uncovered 82 percent MLB totals system of note. Slick Rick of the Left Coast Connection had a very profitable weekend and gives his Free play. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – After yet another NBA playoff loss, it is time for me to pack it in for this season. After watching a game well on its way to Over, Boston didn’t make a basket for over seven minutes in the fourth quarter, which sent me to defeat. I know when not to send good money after bad situation and refuse to chase losses.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY UNDER the total with offensive team scoring 5.0 or more runs a game, against a NL starting pitcher with ERA between 3.70 to 4.20, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out five or more batters per start. The Mets and Johan Santana fit this 82 percent system. (41-9)

Free Basketball Trend -2) Have used this recently but it is worth repeating, the Cleveland Cavaliers are 14-2 ATS after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick had 9-2 three day weekend and prefers the Giants this evening at home.

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NBA Sports Bettors to Ponder Mental State

As evidenced yesterday in Houston, how a professional basketball team feels about a given situation will likely set the tone for the eventual outcome. The old-school ploy of a few handicappers was to suggest they had people in the locker room or inside contacts that would give the sports bettor an edge. If that were true it would have helped in playing against the Lakers yesterday. It would also help to know if Cleveland and Denver want to sweep their respective series up 3-0 or would be content to go home and likely polish off inferior opponents.

Of the two, the Cavaliers look the best to put opposing team out of their misery. LeBron James is playing with the steely determination, probably not seen since No. 23 wore a Chicago Bulls uniform. James won the MVP trophy last week and in Game 3 gave sterling performance, scoring 47 points, nabbing 12 rebounds and handing out eight assists.

When asked what he does when James is having one of nights, Cleveland coach Mike Anderson said, “I try as much as possible,” Brown said Sunday, “to stay out of the way.”

DiamondSportsbook.com has Cleveland as amazing 10-point road favorites, with total of 183. The Cavs deserve this loft status, having outscored Atlanta by over 20 points per game and are destroying them on the boards, with 16 more rebounds per game.

Cleveland has won seven in a row and 12 of 13 (only loss was by one point when James and others either did not play or saw little floor time in final regular season game) and have covered a saucy 11 in a row.

The Cavaliers are 10-0 ATS after four straight wins by 10 points or more this season and have the defense to match, being 11-2 ATS after allowing 85 points or less three consecutive contests. Atlanta’s guard Joe Johnson really wants to be defiant, however the facts speak otherwise. “There’s no way you can tell us this team (Cleveland) is 20 to 30 points better than we are. It’s not possible.”-said Johnson.

Joe, I’m afraid it’s true.

Down in Dallas, if Denver comes to play, they can take a down in the dumps Mavericks team and end their suffering with a big first quarter. The entire Dallas organization is still grieving about the non-called intentional foul attempt by Antione Wright on Carmelo Anthony, who in turn sank game winning three-point shot, giving Denver 3-0 lead as four-point underdogs.

What comes to mind about all the Dallas whining is how they didn’t put the Nuggets away before the miracle shot. Denver missed 15 of first 17 shots and only had two buckets from further than five feet in the first 24 minutes, yet led by three at the half. Dallas also had a four point lead with 31 seconds left in the game and could not hold it.

The NBA in its infinite wisdom wasted little time turning out statement saying a foul probably should have been called. Oh, that makes Dallas feel a lot better! If you thought the 61 fouls in Game 3 was too many, wait until Game 4, both coaches better have reserves ready, since league officials are apt to call every visible or questionable foul and not be shown up.

Similar to Cleveland, Denver has turned into a printing press of cash payouts with 8-0 ATS record in the postseason. The Nuggets are 17-5 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season and could be facing a Dallas team who is thinking about the past instead of the present.

“This is about as tough of a loss as I've been a part of in my 11 years," said Dirk Nowitzki, who overcame a difficult week off the court to score 33 points and grab 16 rebounds. "That's a game we've got to have."

He’s right, since no team has ever come back down 3-0 in the NBA Playoffs. Dallas is a 1.5-point favorite and they are just 4-9 ATS in that role in the postseason. Denver is 6-0 against the spread after breaking the 100-point barrier and is 10-1 ATS in last 11 meetings with the Mavericks.

All signs point to sweeps on TNT tonight starting at 7 Eastern, however it all depends about the mental state.

Penguins and Blackhawks favored as closers

Two series underdogs did what most thought would formidable challenge to accomplish, win Game 5 on the road of conference semi-finals to take series lead. Now Pittsburgh and Chicago are poised with one more win, to advance to respective conference finals and still be very much alive for the Stanley Cup. Both teams will have home ice advantage with throaty fans looking to cement one more win.

For Pittsburgh fans, this is getting to be old hat. Though the players and uniform styles change, the Penguins know how to beat Washington. Pittsburgh will be looking for fourth series come from behind win in 17 years against the Capitals in Game 6. Pittsburgh punched across overtime goal in last contest and are 16-6 following a victory.

For the most part, the best Pens players have been at their best, with Evgeni Malkin having two goals and three assists and Sidney Crosby, five goals and three assists. Pittsburgh players and coaches realized that fear can be a great motivator.

“When you get down 2-0, that fear of not winning and not moving on is there,” coach Penguins coach Dan Bylsma said Sunday. “We got the desperation in our game we needed and we’ve put ourselves in a situation to move on. The guys in that (dressing) room know exactly what’s at stake and what’s in front of us for Game 6. We expect a team that’s going to be real desperate … a team that’s good, that’s dangerous, that’s going to be giving everything they’ve got.”

Washington was down 3-1 to New York Rangers in last series and found a way to win and they need to pull out another miracle to survive and their leader believes it’s possible.

Capitals star Alex Ovechkin has seven of Washington’s 15 goals in the series and says this about Game 6.

“Next game is going to be different,” Ovechkin said. “It’s not over yet. If somebody thinks it’s over, it’s not over. … We’re going to come back here (to Washington) again, Game 7.”

Washington is 16-4 revenging a loss where opponent scored four or more goals this season and is 7-1 in road games after three or more consecutive losses.

DiamondSportsbook.com has made Pittsburgh -180 money line favorites to close out the series with total Ov5.5. The Penguins are 16-4 as playoff favorites and 11-2 OVER after two straight games where both teams scored three goals or more. Washington has lost four of last five as postseason underdogs and is 7-3-1 OVER as dogs.

In Chicago, the Blackhawks have moved within one win game of their first conference finals appearance since 1995 after handling Vancouver 4-2 in Game 5. Chicago took advantage of foolish Canucks penalty in the third period with the score tied at 2-2 and Dave Bolland scored the go-ahead goal.

Hawks captain Jonathan Toews said this about Game 6. “We don’t want to get satisfied at all. We’ve got a huge opportunity and we’ve got to take advantage of it.”

The Hawks have won 13 of last 18 and are 5-1 in most recent encounters at the United Center.
Vancouver has to avoid taking unnecessary penalties and turn up the pressure on offense. In the last game, they total only 21 shots, including 10 the first 40 minutes. “There’s no doubt in my mind that we can play better,” Canucks coach Alain Vigneault said. “There’s a lot of room for improvement in our case.”

The Canucks are 12-3 in road games revenging a home loss versus opponent of two goals or more since the 2006-07 season and 5-0 the last two years. They are +155 money line underdogs with total listed at Ov5. Vancouver is 8-1 OVER when facing elimination in a playoff series and 9-2 in a road game when the total is five or less.

Chicago is 10-1 as -145 to -200 money line home favorites and is 12-4 UNDER in home games after a win by two goals or more this season.

The intense Game 6 action in Pittsburgh starts at 7 Eastern and 9 Eastern in Chicago. It promises to be quite a night of hockey.

Happy's Mother's Day to whoever has made you day

We were one crazy Melo Anthony weave away from perfect Saturday, however will gladly settle for 2-1 day, which raises our record to 47-33-2. We have a perfect Trend in the NHL playoffs ready to launch and 83 percent MLB system in the National League. Sal’s Free pick is now up. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – Closer Bobby Jenks was always heavy set, but I saw him pitch yesterday and it looks like he ate a side of beef whole! Watched Royals and Halos game last night, classic baseball game more on that Monday.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, who is a poor hitting team (BA .250 or less) like San Diego, against a NL starting pitcher with ERA between 3.70 to 4.20, who is batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games. This top notch system is 44-9, 83 percent since 1997.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Carolina Hurricanes are 0-8 in road games after winning four of their last five this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal is 12-3 in all sports the last six days and has Philadephia as winner to take series over Atlanta.

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Will Game 3 Winners Take Control?

The Los Angeles Lakers and Orlando Magic were dominant winners in Friday night action and with another triumph, can really grab the series by the throat and take commanding 3-1 lead and back their opponents into a corner they might not be able to get of. What NBA sports bettors have to contemplate is are these two teams capable of back to back performances for easy covers or will the pride and professionalism of the opposing club allow them to rise and win and cover the number? Here is a preview of the possible scenarios.

L.A. Lakers at Houston 3:30 E ABC

The wagering public had been impressed what they had seen with Houston in the first two games of series against the Lakers, especially on the road. Kobe Bryant and mates opened as 2.5-point favorites and quicker than a politician voting themselves a pay raise, the line shifted to 1.5. What most people didn’t figure on was the Lakers would play a complete game across the board.

Game 3 was a perfect example of what happens when a game plan is executed. The Lakers offensively knew Houston would do almost anything to seal the lane to prevent Kobe from driving to the rim. Instead, coach Phil Jackson had Bryant go as far as he could to force Houston defenders to collapse and Bryant expertly was able to find open players either to shoot or make extra pass to an even more open shooter.

It’s no accident the Lakers are the best road team in the NBA at 31-13 (24-19 ATS) and they are 19-10 ATS off a road conquest. The loss of Derek Fisher was not felt, as replacements Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown combined for 20 points and the former dishing out seven assists, in his best game in months.

On defense, the Lakers are starting to gain control because of their superior quickness, forcing 17 Rockets turnovers which gave them 20-5 scoring differential off miscues, which was the game.

Houston is 9-2 ATS off a 10 or more point loss and has to run offense with greater urgency. The best way to describe the Rockets offensive execution in last game, it looked like they were on a turntable, playing at 33 RPM. Yao Ming was laboring (with broken foot as it turns out); Ron Artest was taking poor shots and Luis Scola was indecisive.

Houston has to move the ball more crisply and take advantage of Lamar Odom and Luke Walton, both defensive liabilities as straight up defenders.

DiamondSportsbook.com had the Lakers as 3.5-point favorites with total of 194.5. Houston is heinous 2-14 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points and 8-18 against the number after playing as underdog. L.A. is now 9-3-1 ATS in conference semi-finals and 8-3 UNDER is last 11 road games.

Ming is now out of the playoffs and the spread moved to +7. Either way the Rockets are 2-9 ATS when the purple-clad Lakers visit.

Boston at Orlando 8:00 E ESPN

For those that believe the Boston Celtics are anywhere close to the team that won the NBA title last summer, I can put you in touch with real estate agent who has land in rural Arizona. The proof that Boston is not the same team is in the total category. The Celtics are 8-2 OVER in the postseason and astonishing 14-3 OVER since April 1. That is not Boston basketball.

Coach Doc Rivers doesn’t have the horses that can shut down opponents and teams are rather easily able to dissect the Celtics players on the floor.

Rivers said this about watching the tape of Game 3. “Our defense was awful. I thought we were soft. I thought they were more aggressive. I thought we were the retaliators all game. Other than that, it was just a wonderful night of film watching.”

Boston is 13-4 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road underdog and will have to step up defense and keep fingers crossed Ray Allen finds shot, since he is 12 for 40 from the field and 3 for 19 from three point land in the first three tilts. As a team, the C’s look tired and did not practice Saturday. Rivers is hoping the time off rejuvenates his club.

Orlando could hardly have played any better, shooting 59.1 percent and they shutdown Boston’s offense for the first three quarters.

"Just the whole team stepped up the defensive intensity," said Dwight Howard, the NBA's defensive player of the year. "It starts with me. I have to do that every night if we want to be successful." Orlando is very comfortable playing at a faster pace and is 11-3 ATS after two or more Overs this season.

This is turning into another anomalous Eastern conference series, with all three game essentially blowouts, except the Boston’s late game one heroics to narrow the margin of loss. Orlando is five point favorite with total of 192. The Celtics are 8-1 ATS following a spread loss; while the Magic are 17-7 ATS if opponent has winning percent of .600 or higher.

How one looks at the total might be the deciding factor. Boston is 21-6 OVER after allowing over 100 points, while Orlando is 9-1 UNDER after a game where they made 55 percent of their shots or better.