NFL Preseason Football Wagering Strategy

For years I never followed the NFL in the month of August, thought it was a waste of time and absolutely had nothing to do with the regular season. The latter point is still true, just not the first one. Over the last seven years I made more money in the preseason then I would have guessed betting football online.

The beauty of exhibition games (NFL hates that term) is their simplicity. I’ve been very fortunate to honestly hit over 63% (44-25) of these plays the last seven years and now I’ll share with you how it happened. Please understand, in hitting a percentage like this, you have to be very selective and really choose your spots. I’ve made a grand total of 69 plays in seven seasons, that is less than three per week. This can be a challenge for those eager to get started and end up making a significant hole before the regular season actually starts.

Pre-Pre Season

Just like in the regular season, it is important to know your teams. Not talking about reading hours of information about every given team, rather to know the coaches and the tendencies of the teams. Coaching blunders and superior game plans can alter the outcomes of contests during the regular season. Still a missed tackle by the opposition or unexpected turnovers can change the ultimate final score, no matter what a coach does. In the preseason, a coach can directly impact the scoreboard by substitution patterns and what his goal is for the team beforehand.

Throughout the internet is interesting fact-based cold data, available for you to learn from. For example, two NFC division foes have shown they could care less about winning in the preseason, instead they are interested in building the team and having it ready for the start of the regular season and often you can find out exactly what the game plan is by going to team websites. The squads that match the criteria are Dallas and Philadelphia, both of whom are 18-31 ATS as favorites over an extended period of time.

Week 1 - Know your Coaches

This is extremely important if you have a desire to have extra money BEFORE the regular season starts. Be assured all the oddsmakers know these numbers, it is your duty as well if you expect to profit. With Mike Shanahan in Washington, expect him to continue the same methods that have made him a great coach. As opposed to many head coaches, Shanahan has always placed a value on winning to set the right tone for his team where he has been in charge, his squads have covered over 63 percent of the time the first two weeks of the preseason.

Another important factor is first year coaches. This year we only have three taskmasters that are taking over new teams. Each has been a head coach at this level in the past and will want to establish how they will be running their programs. After going through grueling training camps, each will want to prove to his players that the work has been worth the trouble. Nothing pays off like winning. Historically, these coaches can bring a nice profit in contests where they don’t meet one another. Undoubtedly, these generals will want to bring in their type of players and it will be reminiscent of what legendary baseball manager Casey Stengel once said, “We’ll win soon, just not with these players.”

One last area to consider is coaches in peril. These fellows know their jobs are in jeopardy and have to deliver wins, even if it has to start in August. Among those that could be a good bet this month are Jack Del Rio in Jacksonville and Lovie Smith in Chicago. Both have the wolves howling at their door and early wins and a good camp would quell the noise, at least for the time being.

Week 2 - Be ready to pounce

This is one of the two weeks online football betting strategists can really take advantage of the lines and make large profits at online sports betting outlets. The most important factors this week are prior performance and motivation. These are largely tied together of which you can take advantage. Last season the Dallas Cowboys barely showed a pulse, let alone putting forth any effort and were humbled by Oakland of all teams 31-10 as two-point underdogs in the opener. This didn’t sit well with Wade Phillips and the coaching staff and they put Cowboys players thru the paces. Training camp is hard enough and the last thing any player wants this month is coaches hollering and screaming about effort. Dallas responded very positively and toppled Tennessee 30-10 as field goal favorites.

Likewise, just the opposite can occur as Tom Coughlin of the New York football Giants found out. In an unusually spirited opening contest, the Giants and Carolina went at it and New York won a hard fought game 24-17 as three-point faves. The very next week Coughlin’s club could do nothing right, especially on offense and were handled easily by Chicago 17-3.

Know this, Philadelphia is 10-1 ATS in week 2 and Dallas is 7-1 ATS.

Week 3 –Dress Rehearsal

This has become the most important week of the preseason, at least for coaches to get a real sense of where the team is and if they were on schedule. Starters will play about two-thirds of the game and a semblance of a game plan will be implemented. Many of the same principles still apply about motivation, with a few variations of note.

The coaches and players place additional importance on this week, thus giving a good showing does matter. In the preseason, situational handicapping has relevance, especially for teams losing by 10 or more points the week before. This is noteworthy, with back-ups playing and the games should be fairly evenly matched. Once again coaches will create further accountability through motivational and psychological tactics. In 2005, New England was humbled by the Saints in week 2, losing 37-27. In reading the Boston papers, Coach Belichick made it quite clear another defensive effort of that nature was not acceptable. The Patriots went to the thawed frozen tundra and laid a whipping on Green Bay 27-3.

How this works to your advantage is maybe the coach feels the team is coming along too fast and wants to dial it back. We all know head coaches are control freaks. They want to build you up to tear you down and vice versa. As mentioned in the preseason, these maniacal masters love to put the team thru grueling practices after a weak effort. Others might feel the club is peeking way to early and let them slack a bit after exceptional performance, while closely monitoring they don’t lose their edge. This is part of the other aspect of analyzing situations, teams off blowout wins or losses.

This is where knowing the personality of a head coach is so important. When Mike Holmgren was in charge, he was famous for taking his team on emotional roller-coaster in August, never letting them feel too good or bad about themselves. Super Bowl winning coach Sean Payton is a noted “go for the jugular” type and he served notice last season, as his team was ready and they were 3-0 SU and ATS, outscoring the opposing teams 100-28 before calling off the dogs.

Week 4 – Pick your spots and be ready for the regular season

The final week of the season is nothing more than final preparation for most teams trying only to avoid injury and making final cuts. The Indianapolis Colts are 2-8 ATS in their final preseason tilt, including five straight spread losses. Be cautious in your plays the last week. If you are having a winning preseason, a game or two that you really are sure of is worth the risk. If you are having a so-so or below average time in picking winners before the start of the regular season, save your money for what you care about. This is what you have been looking forward to anyways.

Final Thoughts

Take the time to review the box scores. Do not do this for the traditional reasons as you might believe. Looking at stats and trying to figure out your fantasy team has nothing to do with the preseason games. What this is for is future reference. This can lead to insights about any team’s depth. Every NFL team is going to have injuries. By reviewing the box scores this time of year, you might find a team that has built up a 17-0 or 20-3 leads with the first team players in two different games and ends up losing both contests in the second half. This could be a red flag that when this team has injuries during the season, the drop off will be precipitous. Most importantly, don’t overanalyze, follow the coaches of the 32 teams and have fun.

Bring on Saturday!

It was a crazy night in baseball Friday and we ended up on the wrong side three times. We’ll look to immediately change that with our Best System that is 82.2 percent. The Top Trend is perfect 13-0 in a NL matchup and Steve of the LCC is hot and offers his top play. Good Luck

What I’m letting you know today – I never thought I would see Tiger Woods look like such a hack on the golf course. Having spent a good portion of my life in the business, I know the game will eventually humble everyone and it has a strong hold on Mr. Woods presently. Nonetheless, sad to watch.

The GUARANTEED Plays hit the big play on Philadelphia, but Houston couldn’t hold 5-2 lead in the ninth and I suffered yet another extra inning loss (8-23 on the season) for a 2-2 day. Today I’m pulling out all the stops and have FIVE BIG PLAYS in baseball for under $10 per selection which is Guaranteed to show a profit.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 like Houston, who are bad NL offensive team, scoring 4.1 or less runs a game, against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season. Read that again if you have to, but know this, 37-8 isn’t terrible.

Free Baseball Trend –2) The Phillies and Mets game isn’t on my radar; however hard to overlook Philly is 13-0 at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve is 6-0 the last two days and has Minnesota as his top Play for Saturday.

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2010 MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

There are highs and lows in every major conference. In the Mountain West Conference they range from 70 feet to 7,200 feet in altitude.

They also range from 2009’s National Coach of the Year (TCU’s Gary Patterson) to one-win New Mexico.

For a league an unsung as the MWC, they find themselves atop the pecking order in a handful of meaningful categories in the FBS. Among them: TCU QB Andy Dalton leads all returning signal callers in career victories (29), while Utah has more consecutive bowl wins (9) than any team in the nation.

In addition, the Utes and the Horned Frogs will ride 17 and 14 game home win streaks, respectively, into the 2010 season.

With 26 all-conference players returning in 2010, it would be no surprise to find this league to improve on its 25-16 bowl mark since 1996. After all, they’re riding a mighty nice high in the MWC these days.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

AIR FORCE – *5 / 5
TEAM THEME: WHERE’S THE BEEF?
While the Falcons welcome back just five starters on offense, including QB Tim Jefferson, the quintet accounted for 100% of the team’s passing yards, rushing yards and total scoring. The concern for HC Troy Calhoun is rebuilding an offensive line that loses all five starters to graduation. Despite losing nearly 1,500 pounds of beef, the Force will again feature a ground attack that has led the MWC in rushing 26 of 28 years, including each of the last 12. There are a few issues on the defensive side, as well. The last time we saw the Falcons’ stop unit in action was in the Armed Forces Bowl where they shut down high-powered Houston, 47-20, picking off Case Keenum SIX times. However, only five starters return from that opportunistic unit which ranked No. 11 nationally while leading the country in turnover margin, including zero on the offensive line. Yes, there are some holes to fill this season in Colorado Springs but in ‘Calhoun We Trust.’
PLAY ON: vs. Navy (10/2)

BYU – 6 / 6
TEAM THEME: CREATURES OF HABIT
Who needs a calendar when you have a Bronco? By the end of November, you can pretty much count on double-digit wins from BYU and by the third week in December you can always find the Mormons in Sin City. For the fourth time in five years, Bronco Mendenhall’s Cougars won 10-plus games, while a fifth straight season was capped off with a trip to the Las Vegas Bowl. In truth, last year’s 11-win season was probably a bit disappointing. After surprising Oklahoma to start the season, the Cougars were upset at home by Florida State and lost for the second year in a row to conference rival TCU. They’ll get a chance to make amends this year with trips to Tallahassee and Fort Worth. With just six starters returning on each side of the ball, we need to see more before assessing those chances. One thing we know for sure: we’ll be rolling the dice with Bronco’s boys come December.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Utah (11/27)

COLORADO STATE – 4 / 10
TEAM THEME: HONEY, PLEASE COME BACK
After leading the Rams to their first winning season since 2003 and delivering their first bowl victory in seven years, the Ft. Collins courtship was on for HC Steve Fairchild. A 3-0 start to 2009 pressed the engagement but, like a jilted lover, things got ugly. Real ugly. A season-ending nine-game losing skein was even more befuddling considering the fact that the Rams were favored in four of those contests. For Fairchild to get back in the sack, he’ll need the offense to revert to their productive 2008 form. Easier said than done with only four starters back in the mix, including a new signal-caller for the third straight season. The defense, as a whole, took baby steps in 2009 but the D-line, in particular, showed vast improvement. With 10 starters back on that side the ball, and a recruiting class that Rivals.com called CSU’s best in ten years, maybe Steve can get his groove back.
PLAY ON: vs. UNLV (10/16)

NEW MEXICO – 5 / 6
TEAM THEME: BABY STEPS
When you are winless without a TD in your last four season openers, a new team motto is needed. “Take the Next Step” is the phrase Mike Locksley has opted for in 2010. These young Lobos managed only one win for Locksley in his rookie season, but they showed marked improvement over the season’s final five games, losing the stat battle by an average of 59 YPG as compared to a negative 161 YPG in the first five games of the year. “The last five games we improved about 50 to 60 percent in almost every vital statistical category, and the last five games included the best teams in the conference. We got better, we stepped forward,” confirmed Locksley. Blue-chip DT recruit Calvin Smith and a defensive line that returns three starters assures these Lobos are taking steps in the right direction… slow but sure.
PLAY ON: vs. San Diego St (10/23)

SAN DIEGO STATE – *9 / 8
TEAM THEME: ABOVE ALL HOKE
If you listen to HC Brady Hoke, it’s time for his Aztecs to get physical. His first year at the helm saw San Diego State double its win total from the previous season, thanks to a defense that improved dramatically against the run. Yet opponents still more than doubled their rushing output per game (165 to 78). The continued development of both the offensive and defensive lines is critical if the Aztecs are to produce their first winning season since the MWC formed in 1999. Skill wise, Brady’s bunch is in good shape with the return of WR’s Vincent Brown (778 yards, 6 TD’s in six games before a season-ending thumb injury) and DeMarco Sampson, who was granted a sixth year of eligibility.
A relatively soft non-conference schedule may give Hoke the push he’s looking for early, but can this group hold their ground after visiting BYU, Wyoming and TCU? Time will tell.
PLAY ON: vs. UNLV (11/27)

TCU – *9 / 7
TEAM THEME: A TAD(POLE ) OLDER
The Frogs just seem to keep on multiplying. TCU had more freshmen (17) on the depth chart last season than seniors (13) and the 27 seniors on this year’s roster more than double last year’s number. Despite a disappointing bowl loss to Boise in which they held the Broncos to 25 points below their season average, the Horned ones completed a perfect regular season for the first time in school history. As always, it was about the ‘D’. Since 2005, the Frogs have allowed a meager 79.5 rushing yards per game – tops in the nation. In fact, over that span, Gary Patterson’s stop unit has held 45 opponents to under 333 total yards of offense, producing a 42-3 record in those contests. The offense is also in good hands as QB Andy Dalton, the MWC player of the year in 2009, returns. With only one tough conference roadie (Utah), it looks like the Fort Worth Frogs will, once again, be jumping.
PLAY ON: vs. Oregon St (9/4)

UNLV – *8 / 8
TEAM THEME: MR. CLEAN
Mike Sanford is out and Bobby Hauck is in as six straight non-winning seasons was all the UNLV brass could stomach. They’ll gamble that the winningest coach in the FCS over the last seven years can change the Rebels’ fortunes. Hauck compiled a stellar 80-17 mark at Montana while leading the Grizzlies to three national championship games. SR QB Omar Clayton returns along with four starting offensive linemen and 1,291 of the team’s 1,522 rushing yards. However, Hauck plans on cleaning house if necessary as he contends that, “No job is safe now or ever, really. You may see a lot of spread principles in our offense because that’s what the strength of our personnel is.” With nine bowl teams on this year’s form, including four non-conference bowlers, it may take some time before Hauck cleans up this mess.
PLAY ON: vs. Wyoming (11/13)

UTAH – *8 / 4
TEAM THEME: SAND BAGGERS
Playing in the MWC, Utah is America’s best-kept secret. However, every year when we publish our Bowl Stat Report, Kyle Whittingham’s Utes come front and center. That’s because Utah owns the winningest bowl percentage (12-3, 80%) in Division 1 history of teams with at least 15 appearances. They also own the nation’s longest current bowl win streak at 9 – and Whittingham has been a part of all of them. QB Jordan Wynn, the MVP of last season’s Poinsettia Bowl, is back. So too is RB Eddie Ware, who rushed for over 1,000 yards in 10 games last season. Ware is joined in the backfield by Matt Asiata, who led the conference in rushing through the first four games before a knee injury ended his season. Checking the scoresheet we find twelve starters in all, including six all-MWC perfomers, returning to Salt Lake City as Whittingham looks to make it 10 strikes in a row.
PLAY ON: vs. Iowa St (10/9) – *KEY as dog

WYOMING – *7 / 7
TEAM THEME: JUST DO IT… AGAIN
Chase Daniel, former Missouri quarterback, was right on the money when he proclaimed that his former OC Dave Christensen was “going to take that program to levels it’s never seen.” In short order, Christensen took the Cowboys bowling for the first time since 2004 and then proceeded to upset Fresno State as a double-digit dog in the New Mexico Bowl. Some may say it was the new Nike uniforms they wore for the first time in 2009. Others argue the five 4th-quarter comebacks orchestrated by MWC Freshman of the Year QB Austyn Carta-Samuels had more to do with it. “We didn’t utilize all of our offense last year… I think we can start moving toward what we originally envisioned for the spread when we came here… I believe we’ve improved our team athletically,” said Christensen. It’s hard to argue with success.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Colorado State (11/20)

Breakaway Friday

A split from Thursday has us at 143-84 and we look to build on this record with an 80 percent system in the AL. Also in the junior circuit, one club is on a long losing streak in a particular situation. Good Luck

What I’m letting you know today – From Elias Sports: James McDonald, who was traded to the Pirates by the Dodgers last week, won his debut with Pittsburgh on Thursday and in the process of doing so became the first starting pitcher to allow no runs and strike out at least eight batters in his first game for the Pirates since 1907, when Nick Maddox threw a shutout with 11 strikeouts in his major-league debut.

The GUARANTEED Plays missed on the Dodgers last night as James Loney left four runners on base in his last two at-bats when the score was still 3-0. Moving ahead to today, I have an Out of the Park Guaranteed Baseball Winner and Twin Pack of MLB Night Time Winners. Join 3Daily Winners and cash in with these Guaranteed Plays.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like Cleveland, a weak hitting team with batting average of .260 or less, against a very good AL starting pitcher with ERA of 3.50 or less, whose batting .200 or worse over their last three games. This system just meets our criteria at 56-14, 80 percent.

Free Baseball Trend –2) The Boston Red Sox are 0-11 in road games vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs a game in the second half of the season over the last two years.

Free Baseball Pick -3) LCC Friday consensus is 5-0 on San Diego over Arizona.

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In search of Thursday layups

After a few not so hot days, came back strong with 3-0 Wednesday, taking record to 142-83. Today we have a Top Trend that is strictly perfection and the LCC has another Free consensus play. Good Luck

What I’m letting you know today – Brett Favre might have other problems on his hands besides playing football, literally. Read here.

The GUARANTEED Plays were absolutely correct with Atlanta last night. Tonight I have another GUARANTEED WINNER on the docket ready to increase your bankroll yet again. This play is packed with winning information and you’ll be in relaxed position early and often.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Not one good system worth anything today.

Free Baseball Trend –2) The L.A. Angels are 12-0 after a game where they had 17 or more hits over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The LCC has 6-0 consensus on the Philadelphia Phillies in South Florida.

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3DW Line Moves – Crucial Betting Info

A thinner baseball slate has those doing baseball betting fixated on four contests. Two of the games feature side action and the other two hone in on the totals. Take a read and see if you agree or disagree with the wagering public in Thursday’s action.

L.A. Angels at Baltimore 7:05 EDT

Buck Showalter is paying immediate benefits for the Baltimore Orioles, winning his first two games as the skipper. The Orioles offense has come to life scoring 15 total runs in back to back contests, something that has happened only twice since June 25. The O’s will face face Dan Haren (7-10, 4.42) and see if they can orchestrate their third home sweep of the season. The focus for baseball bettors has been on the total, since it began at 8.5 and has been elevated to 9. Granted, Haren was pitching for an awful Arizona club, however his ERA was still lofty 4.86 and he’s 16-7 OVER in 23 starts. While there is a little excitement in the land of crap cakes, the Orioles are 26-11 UNDER at home having won two of their last three.

Colorado at Pittsburgh 7:05 EDT

The Rockies have won five of six and Pittsburgh is playing like Pittsburgh, having lost 10 of 13, so why would online sports betting analysts be favoring the Pirates? The Bucs opened as +161 money line home underdogs and have actually wandered downward to +150 or less at various sportsbooks. The Pittsburgh bullpen was dreadful in 9-4 defeat to Cincinnati and the Pirates are 4-22 after the bullpen was rocked for six or more runs since 2008. The answer my friends is not blowing in the wind, its right here. Did you know Colorado is 4-14 in road encounters after a win and astonishing 0-9 (-9.2 Units) as visitors having won three of their last four games this season? Toss in the fact tonight’s starter Jeff Francis (4-3, 4.44) and Rockies are 0-7 (-9.7 Units) vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage of .315 or worse and just maybe this dog might have some bite.

San Francisco at Atlanta 7:10 EDT

This potential playoff matchup is strictly about perception. Tim Lincecum and the Giants were -121 ML road faves and are now -108 or lower at online sports betting outlets. Atlanta’s Major League best 36-14 home record undoubtedly is a factor, as is 17-5 mark at Turner Field playing against teams with a winning record this season. Yet, it is impossible to ignore San Francisco’s recent 13-3 joy ride on the road for exactly the last month, plus having the knowledge of Lincecum being 6-1 with 2.70 ERA against Atlanta. The outcome could be decided by how the Braves batters hit in the clutch. After batting under .200 with runners in scoring position for a 10-game stretch, Atlanta busted out eight runs in stopping New York yesterday. Taking advantage of similar opportunities probably will determine the Game 1 winner.

Cleveland at Boston 9:40 EDT

The Red Sox are doing their best to field a team with all their injuries. They’ve lost two of three to Cleveland and want to salvage a split with Daisuke Matsuzaka (7-3, 4.22) on the mound. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in his last three starts against the Indians. The wagering public was in sell mode for this matchup at total of 8.5, with the new number is 9. Matsuzaka is 33-15 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5; however Boston is 10-2-1 OVER after their opponent allowed two or less runs. The Tribe is 12-4-2 UNDER after a win in last 18 outings, but is 6-2 OVER playing a Game 4 of a series.

3DW Bonus Info

Money Line Nugget
The L.A. Angels are 12-0 (+13.3 Units) against the money line after a game where they had 17 or more hits over the last three seasons.

Totals Nugget
San Diego is 14-2 OVER in August road games the last two years with average score of 11.6 total runs.

Run Line Nugget
Florida is 30-11 (+19.2 Units) against the run line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season since last year.

3DW Line Moves is copyrighted content of Impact Sports Solutions, Inc and Doug Upstone. All rights reserved.
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Trying to nail Wednesday Winners

Time to turn this blog around and deliver the kind of winners that has helped build a 139-83 record in the last 222 picks. The Best System was a winner on Tuesday and we think we have another at 88.6 percent. The Top Trend is dam close to perfect in the South and the Free Play will be up soon. Good Luck

What I'm letting you know today – Don’t you just love coaches who talk out of both sides of their mouth repeatedly. Houston Nutt of Ole Miss has not struck gold on the recruiting trail and after two successful years of coaching another coach’s players, the Rebels are believed to be at or near the basement in the SEC West.

Noted trouble-maker and talented quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was booted from the Oregon football team after being arrested again. Still needing to complete is college education (wink-wink) and football eligibility, Masoli found the right university of higher learning. Nutt said he would have never considered the troubled young man, but his back-up quarterback suffered injury that will prevent him from playing this upcoming season, thus he needed an experiences second-stringer. RIGHT!

The GUARANTEED Plays lost a tough 3-2 decision with Texas and expect to rebound this evening with Guaranteed selection in the senior circuit that will make us both Winners. This contest has a particular pitcher in Perfect 10-0 situation.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like Houston, with NL a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season. This is common sense system since if a team is that big an underdog with what appears to be a descent hurler, they would be expected to struggle. How much you wonder, the underdog is 8-62 in this spot with 0-5 record this year.

Free Baseball Trend –2) The Braves and Kris Medlen are 12-1 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection has 8-0 consensus on Atlanta tonight.

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The “Big Uglies” can lead to college football profits

The glamour position of football is the quarterback, followed by running backs. These are the players that get all the love (and hate) and pub from the media, fans and football bettors. However, longtime college football announcer Keith Jackson and every football coach that ever walked the sidelines above peewee level knows it all starts up front, as Jackson used to say, with the “Big Uglies”.

An offense line can set the pace of a game, running the ball down opposing teams’ throats by opening chasms Levi Johnson and is temptress could walk thru hand and hand. The same would also be true in the passing game, providing the accomplished quarterback time to answer email, plus update Facebook and Twitter pages.

The opposite could also be true of the college football teams that are rebuilding offensive lines due to graduation or defection. A talented quarterback may be taking his life into his own hands trying to avoid the onslaught of defenders (see Jimmy Clausen tape at Notre Dame), to look downfield to complete a pass. What about the star running back who needs a compass to run north and south, since there are no holes to run thru and becomes accustomed to bouncing everything outside.

In the rest of this article, we’ll look what teams have the most and fewest returning offensive linemen and what impact that could have on their universities upcoming season and for those betting on football.

The best place to start is teams that have all five O-linemen back along with their starting quarterback.

Ball State
Colorado
Florida State
Fresno State
Louisiana Tech
Minnesota
South Florida
Wisconsin

Specifically, the Seminoles and Badgers are expected to be teams not only competing for the top of their respective conferences, but also nationally. Guard Rodney Hudson for Florida State and tackle Gabe Carimi at Wisconsin, are on virtually everyone’s first team All-American list. Wisky’s John Moffitt is believed to be no worse than the third best guard in the country.

Colorado’s offense should be further improved this upcoming campaign and Fresno State’s pounding running game should create more havoc on the WAC.

New coaching staffs are in place in South Florida and Louisiana Tech, which could see the shifting of players up front, making improvement less certain. Ball State and Minnesota might have all these individuals back, but that doesn’t mean they were that good to begin with. Collectively, this entire group is worth following.

The next grouping is five offensive linemen back, with a different starting signal caller.

Georgia
Kansas
Memphis
Northwestern
Oregon
Rice

With this contingent, the head coach and his offensive staff will try to build around these players before heading into conference action. These behemoths are being counted on to open holes and keep the opposition off new quarterbacks. These large fellas actually have a great deal of pressure on them as opponents will game plan to have more defensive players at the line of scrimmage to create chaos with blocking assignments and to confuse new field general or make backs less instinctive when carrying the pigskin.

Memphis and Kansas have new head coaches, lending itself to period of adjustment for new blocking schemes. The rest of the squads will have to set the tone for the makings of a successful season and earn the trust of those following football betting lines.

The next patch is teams with only one lineman having starting experience from a year ago. A smart quarterback’s knowledge of the offense and ability to hit open receivers proficiently can take some of the pressure off until this unit gels.

Vanderbilt, Southern Miss, Kentucky and Hawaii all fit the aforementioned situation, with the Golden Eagles from Hattiesburg, MS having the best opportunity to prosper with the quarterback duo of Austin Davis and Martevious Young being able to chuck the ball to 6’6 DeAndre Brown, C-USA’s finest pure pass catcher. Coach Larry Fedora is offensive-minded and has the best chance for achieving success with somewhat limited options.

Bobby Johnson resigned at Vanderbilt just last month, making a prickly predicament that much worse and Joker Phillips will quickly learn that lacking experience in the offensive line is no joke in the SEC.

That brings us to Air Force and Florida Atlantic, who have no O-Linemen that started the majority of games a year ago. Though hardly ideal, the Air Force and all military universities face a somewhat similar issue most years. Unless a linemen ends up being unusually skilled (which is unlikely since they could go somewhere else and just play football), few underclassman play early in their careers. The zone blocking scheme the Air Force employs is more about cohesiveness than blowing somebody up across the line of scrimmage. Plus, the Flyboys have two good quarterbacks for their offense, each with a different skill set to help offset having five newbies that will block for them. Nonetheless, it might pay to watch this team in September as play against BYU, at Oklahoma and at Wyoming and watch the stats to see if the Falcons come together quickly.

It might be long season for Florida Atlantic. Technically, the Owls don’t have returning starting QB, however senior Jeff Van Camp was forced to play the last five games due to injury of decorated Rusty Smith. However, around him are five fresh faces in the line and five of top six pass catchers have graduated.

When the bowl season comes around, invariably the talk of commentators will turn to “the offensive line carried this team for much of the year” or “this club failed to meet expectations because the offensive line didn’t block as presumed”. Use this information as a good starting point for the upcoming college football season.

The end of the line for Favre?

Well Brett Favre has reportedly retired again. I like most have had about as much as this as I have of Snookie (gosh where would they ever find another one like her in New Jersey, except maybe by crossing the street).

It’s really a challenge to give him the benefit of the doubt since he’s had more retirements than Cher. All these antics have left me without the warm and fuzzy feeling I used to have for FAV-RE having attended his first game coming off the bench for Don “Magic Man” Majkowski on Sept.27 1992. Now 285 consecutive regular season starts later, it might be over.

Internet reports have oddsmakers scrambling to adjust odds on the Vikings and the poor folks that had Minnesota Over 9.5 for season win total, well find another Futures wager to hopefully break even.

No matter your feelings, he was one of the all-time great quarterbacks and to do what he did last year is incomprehensible at 40. If this is truly it, time will heal all wounds and he will be celebrated again in Wisconsin and throughout football.

I still have to wonder however, if Minnesota starts 2-2 or 1-3, does Commissioner Gordon, aka Brad Childress, launch the Batman signal in the sky (likely a large No. 4), with Dallas, at Green Bay and at New England the next three games to save Metropolis or Minnesota?

Tuesday's Top Plays and more

Hit the skids a bit of late, but we’ll try and turn this around starting today. Ken gave us yesterday’s winner and he’s getting hotter than a steering wheel that was out in the desert sun all day and offers another top Free Play. The Top Trend takes a look at how a certain club plays after hanging a zero on the scoreboard. The Best System is just that at over 90 percent.

This plus baseball info and Guaranteed Play for Tuesday. Good Luck

What I letting you know today – I was doing some research today and came across what looked to be pretty interesting numbers. San Diego is a below average hitting team, but when they have 10 or more hits, they are 28-7 this season. In all other games the Padres are 34-33.

This led me to think how that might stack up against the best teams. The Yankees are impressive 37-11, but Tampa Bay blew me away at 41-6 with double digit hits. Clearly strong pitching matched with good hitting leads to wins. For the sake of comparison, I checked out Kansas City who can hit, but lacks quality pitching and they are 31-22, proving hitting can overcome a lot of problems, but not all of them.

The GUARANTEED Plays were right on the nose with Atlanta last night and today my Guaranteed pick has more edges in tonight’s matchup than an octagon table, including one that is 80 percent. This is a Special Winner or Wednesday is Free!

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs like Florida with a money line of +175 to +250, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a sizzling starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or less over his last five starts. You’ve seen this before and difficult to ignore 67-7, 90.5 percent.

Free Baseball Trend –2) Pittsburgh is 1-12 revenging a shutout loss to opponent this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ken picked up three more winners last night including Oakland and Tuesday has San Diego burying Manny-wood for good.

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The first Monday of August

With a record of 137-79, we trot out today’s MLB system that is 84.1 percent. The Top Trend on the board features the New York Yankees and the Free Pick will be up before long. Good Luck

What I letting you know today – I’ve been a huge fan of Taco Bell for a long time (please don’t hold that against me) and though I have my favorites, when something new comes down the pike I’ll usually give it a go. As a TB expert, I can say without question, the new Cantina Tacos are the absolutely worst thing I’ve ever eaten there. They’ve had winners and others that were fair, but in my book, these are definitely Play Against.

The GUARANTEED Plays have a selected team that wins 84.6 percent of the time off recent results and tonight’s projected loser falls right in line with 1-11 mark against certain types of pitchers. Take home today’s GUARANTEED Winner.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 like Houston, a weak NL offensive team scoring 4.1 runs or less a game, against an average starting pitcher whose ERA is in the 4.20 to 5.20 range, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season. How about since 1997 this MLB system is 37-7.

Free Baseball Trend –2) The New York Yankees are 18-3 after seven or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ken cooled for awhile but was 6-1 over the weekend and has Oakland on the money line and run line tonight.

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Cross country travel having impact on baseball betting

With the month of August now front and center, thoughts of football have started creeping into those betting on sports and fantasy football enthusiasts. The idea slipped into my head about one of the more common aspects of football betting often discussed, cross-country trips. The reasons are obvious why this situation is problematic, as players have to adjust body-clocks when changing three time zones and might not be fully prepared physically or mentally come game time.

This led to pulling out shovel and seeing if this had any impact on Major League Baseball.

The criteria set up was a team had to fly East or West thru three time zones. I neglected to worry about if there was a day off in between games and used only the initial contest as a benchmark.

At the start of this season, I disregarded the Los Angeles Dodgers beginning play in Pittsburgh, since they had ample time to arrive. I did however count teams from the East that flew West for a couple of series and traveled back towards home base, but played one more road series in their regular time zone after again jetting across the lower 48.

Baseball has differences compared to football that can be nit-picked, like starting pitcher situations are always different, making money lines more volatile. Certain divisions can be stronger or weaker, however that would also be true of football, studying an extended period of time.

Since I do not recall seeing this information in the marketplace recently, my first thought was it might be pointless, with nothing being learned one way or the other.

Started with 2009 to get a full season record and had to admit, was underwhelmed. The overall record was nondescript 31-32, -3.35 units. That season the AL West was the big loser with 3-9 record and -6 units.

Undeterred, went back one more year to 2008 and found something more worthwhile. This particular year the final record was 26-38 for -6.85 units lost. That season was all over the board, as the AL Central was 0-5, all as underdogs. The AL West was 9-8, but nicely profitable +5 units thanks to seven underdogs winning outright. The NL West was the difference-maker with 4-11 mark, losing 7.15 units.

This study moved ahead to this year’s baseball action and the results were more of what was expected. Time travelers are 16-24, -8.7 units on the season with nine weeks left in the regular season, a fairly notable figure.

In football, this is one condition that arises annually, however it is largely ignored in baseball.
A further breakdown has well-travelled road underdogs 35-66, -25.15 and visiting favorites 38-28, +6.25 units. Both numbers are about what one might expect, with the former possibly having a slightly higher loss percentage.

Our almost three-year results wind up 73-94, -18.9 units. This isn’t knowledge that will make you rich, but it can put extra cash in your pocket the next time this situation pops up for the shrewd baseball bettor.

AUGUST’s GOOD and BAD BASEBALL PITCHERS

By Marc Lawrence of PlayBook.com

With the MLB trade deadline at hand and the NFL pre-season whetting our pigskin appetite, the month of August sets the table for the stretch run of the baseball season. Which pitchers can we count on to satisfy our tastes, and which ones figure to turn our stomach? Take a look below.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of August. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in August team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each August over the last three years. I’ll be back next month with September’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS

Baker, Scott *12-6
The Minnesota starting pitching has been mediocre for a large part of the season and Scott Baker has been part of the problem, with ERA hovering around 5. This would be the right time for the right-hander to pitch up to expectations with the Twins looking for another AL Central crown.

Bush, Dave * 8-3
Milwaukee’s Dave Bush begins this month with below average career record of 53-64, however he has flourished in the dog days of summer. With fastball topping out at 90 MPH, he has to have his variety of breaking stuff working to be effective, which it is usually this month.

Hernandez, Felix * 13-5
Last season Hernandez was 19-5, with WHIP of 1.114 and hitters batting .227 against him. This year his WHIP to start this month is exactly the same, opponents are hitting ever so slightly better at .232, yet with an inferior team, he is 7-8. With run support, King Felix could have typical August.

Kazmir, Scott * 12-5
On the DL, expected to have rehab assignment the middle of August and could return if all goes well.

Lincecum, Tim * 12-6
Being a two-time Cy Young winner, there are not many bad months. Though still extremely effective, the ERA is up over three this season, with strikeouts down and opponents batting average up to .240 (compared to .221 career). Let’s see if Lincecum pitches to usual high standards with San Francisco back in pennant race.

Oswalt, Roy *13-3
Always a strong closer at the end of the year, Oswalt got the energy boost he needed being traded to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Pettitte, Andy *13-5
On the DL since July 19, Pettitte has been soft-tossing without discomfort and could well be back before projected 4-5 weeks initial outlook to continue August dominance.

Pineiro, Joel * 12-2
In the midst of solid 10-7 season and career innings pitched, the Angels right-hander is out six to eight weeks with oblique strain.

Sabathia, C.C. * 14-4
The big left-hander is 8-1 with 2.10 ERA in his last 10 starts, proving he is primed for another awesome August.

Santana, Ervin * 10-4
Always a quality No. 3 starter, Santana has often been an important cog in the Angels winning AL West titles. While this might not occur in 2010, this Dominican dandy is poised for another sharp month.

Shields, James *12-6
If Tampa Bay is to catch the Yankees, getting better pitching from James Shields would make a difference. His 9-9 record with 4.79 ERA is far cry from 2007-08 when he was 26-16, with ERA a full run lower. Time for Shields to find a way to avoid bats.

Wainwright, Adam *10-3
The Cardinals have a pair of aces with Chris Carpenter and Wainwright and the Georgia native could be on to 20-win campaign if he has usual stellar August. Opposing teams are batting a career low .219 against him.

Wolf, Randy * 10-3
The lefty has found the difference between Miller Park and Dodger Stadium to be severe this season. Two areas demonstrate the difference for Wolf this year compared to last. In 2009, opponents hit .227 against Wolf, presently they are at .269. His strikeout totals this season are more reflective of his poorer career years with 87 to begin August, compared to 160 last season. Will Wolf turn it around?

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Duke, Zach * 2-8
When opponents are batting over .300 against a starting pitcher for his career, the front office should look in the mirror and question themselves.

Guthrie, Mark * 5-13
His ERA is up nearly a run in last 10 starts, explaining 1-6 record. When Guthrie struggles, it’s because the fastball comes to the plate like it is on a string and breaking stuff lacks bite to keep hitters off balance. Pitching for Orioles doesn’t help.

Hernandez, Livan * 4-11
His ERA is creeping up, yet still highly respectable 3.22. For most of his later career, Hernandez has tended to wear down as the year progressed, making him play against pitcher as part of his M.O.

Olsen, Scott * 2-9
Has made one start since being placed on the DL in May and difficult to determine how the left-hander might do for Washington with only 20 total appearances the last two years.

Owings, Micah * 3-8
Optioned to Triple-A Louisville by Cincinnati on July 28.

Robertson, Nate * 3-8
Released by Florida on July 27.


Doug Upstone of 3dailywinners.net contributed to this article.

Sunday Specials- Welcome to August

The White Sox let me and a number of people down as we suffered a 1-2 day and lowered our impressive record to 136-77 on our plays. Our Best System contains info about the month of August and is 87.5 percent. The Top Trend is an AL affair in the Land of 10,000 Lakes and likely three times as many mosquitoes. Good Luck

What I letting you know today – I had just flipped on the end of the Colorado and Cubs game in the bottom f the ninth, tied at 5-5, when the Rockies TV announcer said Carlos Gonzalez needs a home run to hit for the cycle and wouldn’t that be a welcome sight at this point of the game. The first pitch of the half inning Gonzalez swings and hits a walk off home run and becomes the six Colorado player to hit for the cycle. ''I heard everyone saying I was going to do it,'' Gonzalez said. ''You just believe in yourself. I guess it was meant to be. It was my night, it was the Rockies' night.''

The GUARANTEED Plays were profitable as promised with 2-1 record. Look to conclude the week with another winning day and have Guaranteed Winner in tonight's NL West rivalry game between the Dodgers and Giants. This is supported with a 100 percent winning angle you can count on.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like Cleveland, an AL team with a low on-base percentage of .320 or lower, against a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or below, playing in August games. Heck of a way to start the month with a 35-5 MLB system.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Seattle is 8-33 as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season, losing by 2.4 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Kyle of the LCC is 15-4 in all wagers the last three days, he's on the Mets to continue making money.

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