UCLA will undoubtedly try to slow the game down against Memphis and control the tempo, making it more to their liking. The Bruins will walk the ball up and try to force Memphis to play defense for longer stretches. It won’t work, coach John Calipari will breakdown Western Kentucky win and see what problems the Bruins had with Hilltoppers. Memphis’ better and longer athletes can be extremely effective in zone traps and he has them 100 percent committed on defensive end. Kevin Love can present problems from matchup standpoint, especially if he hits a few long shots. By the same token, he is not a quick leaper and Memphis frontcourt players can use athletic ability to tap balls or just go over the top. Coach Ben Howland has dilemma how to play Tigers guards. As Memphis proved against Texas, smaller guards can be extinguished. In the Final Four, underdogs like the Bruins off a pair of wins by 10 or more points are just 1-4 ATS in recent efforts. Tigers by 8.
Announcer Gus Johnson’s comment about 800-pound gorilla removed from Bill Self and Kansas back was poignant. The Jayhawks are unburdened with expectations now and will face teams will equal ability, making them underdog, were they could flourish. In the Jayhawks last seven underdog roles, they have cashed in six of them. The game with North Carolina has the making a classic; both teams shoot the ball extremely well, make three-point shots with great regularity and attack the rim off the bounce. Where Kansas has the edge is overall defense. Do they have a player like Taylor Hansbrough, no; however have the same or bettor at all other positions, with greater depth. Teams like the Tar Heels that have covered three consecutive games leading up to Final Four matchup are 6-20 ATS in this round. Kansas in a tight one by 2.
The Final Four – What if?
For the first time in the history of the NCAA Tournament, all four number one seeds have advanced to the Final Four. While it makes for great story telling when a Cinderella is fit for glass slipper to make the last group, they often flop in this situation like George Mason did in 2006. Instead, this year, we have the top four teams that finished one, two, three and four in the final Coaches’ poll of the regular season.
With the games presumed to be tightly contested or potentially blowouts because of just a few factors, here is a betting outlook at “what if” any of our four finalist play there best or worst.
What if North Carolina plays their best?
When North Carolina bends down, pulls up the shorts and defends, they are the best team in the country. Offensively, they are without peer, even among this contingent, scoring 89 points per game. Being at or near the top of the polls, they have made life easy for “square” bettors, being 23-10-2 against the spread. Tyler Hansbrough is the single hardest working player in the country and always gives the Tar Heels a shot to win. Having Ty Lawson back at point makes the North Carolina players better, allowing them to play to strengths instead of compensating in other areas they are not as skilled at. Their supremacy is shown by 13-1 ATS record versus excellent teams shooting 45 percent or higher with a defense holding opponents to 42 percent or lower this season.
What if Tar Heels are at their worst?
North Carolina is a better than 8-5 choice to cut down the nets Monday night, but that won’t happen if two of these three things happen. Hansbrough can be limited, have him catch the ball 2-3 feet outside comfort level and flash ball-side defender at him, forcing him to make quick decisions. If he looks to pass weak side, off ball defender has to be aware of passes that can be stolen. Hope Danny Green in particular and other shooters are off on three-pointers, never giving easy looks. When and if opposing team has lead, move the ball on offense and make Heels play defense for 25 or more seconds on multiple possessions, they will become impatient.
What if Kansas plays their best?
When Kansas is at there best, no team in this field is capable of beating them. They have the size to swallow up the lane and speed at all five positions to run and defend with anyone. The Jayhawks are one team that will be comfortable playing at a faster speed, like UNC or Memphis plays and is truly exceptional in creating dribble penetration to the rim. They make over 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from beyond the arc, plus hold opponents to 38.5 percent shooting on the road. The Jayhawks could be underdog twice in San Antonio and come away national champs. They are 6-1 ATS in this role and 5-0 ATS off win by less than six points.
What if Jayhawks are at their worst?
In the Bill Self era and even when Roy Williams was the coach in Lawrence, Kansas showed the capacity to tighten up in critical games and situations. The signs are more obvious than a Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays season outcome. The Jayhawks start jacking up jump shots, stand on offensive sets and two players hang their heads after opponents made baskets. If opposing team is dictating tempo, they become stagnant and are 1-7 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or points a game this season. For all their balance, they don’t have reliable go-to player who wants to take big shot in close games. If Brandon Rush is so-so, Kansas is VERY ordinary in big games.
What if Memphis plays their best?
Combine aggressive defense, crashing the boards with authority, dribble penetration offensive AND the ability to make free throws, and Memphis at just under 3-1 odds is a load. Of any team in the Final Four, if this was round-robin, they would be most likely to win all three games when they are playing like they are right now. Derrick Rose has been the cherry on the top of the desert, which has made this Tigers team virtually unstoppable. Chris Douglas-Roberts is a complete player and the frontline is domineering over opponents in the paint. Coach Calipari teams are 57-33 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game, after 15 or more contests in a season.
What if Tigers are at their worst?
Playing top level competition in December is not the same as being in a big moment like the Final Four. In only loss to Tennessee, Memphis players seemed more intent on showing they could make outside shots, than playing their game. In spite of exceptional talent coming off the bench, this is a team that is better with the sum of its parts. When Scott Wieland was booted from Stone Temple Pilots, the rest of the members thought they could go on. If Joey Dorsey gets into foul trouble, or Rose as freshman, becomes overwhelmed by the moment, the Tigers could fall to 1-7 ATS off a cover again. One last point, the free throw shooting is just a couple of clanks away from rearing ugly head.
What if UCLA plays their best?
UCLA is making third straight trip to Final Four and just over 3-1 odds to win it all. The Bruins have players’ familiar with the pressures of the media, scrutiny by the masses and the team with the most to prove, based on the last two seasons coming up short. UCLA is 8-2 ATS after scoring 75 points or more two straight games this season, proving they can play with the high octane teams in this field, yet can play lock down defense on the perimeter like they did against Xavier. Desire is one aspect that is impossible to measure in situations like this, nonetheless, juniors Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute have played prominent roles on this stage and have the big game experience that should allow them to shine. Like Memphis, coach Ben Howland believes Kevin Love was the one missing piece to complete circle of success.
What if Bruins are at their worst?
Go ahead, name productive backcourt player coming off the UCLA bench? If Collison has problems with scoring or turnovers, Bruins have immediate issues. Josh Shipp has been unhealthy in the tournament and his jump shot has shown it, hitting 33 percent in tourney’s first four games. Kevin Love has created matchup issues for opposing clubs with well-rounded skills, however the prowess of the frontcourts he will see will test his defensive skills as well, particularly his lack of cutting off drives on the baseline that could lead to baskets and him picking up cheap fouls. UCLA has to score 70 points; otherwise they are likely out with 2-10 ATS mark this 2007-08 campaign.
With the games presumed to be tightly contested or potentially blowouts because of just a few factors, here is a betting outlook at “what if” any of our four finalist play there best or worst.
What if North Carolina plays their best?
When North Carolina bends down, pulls up the shorts and defends, they are the best team in the country. Offensively, they are without peer, even among this contingent, scoring 89 points per game. Being at or near the top of the polls, they have made life easy for “square” bettors, being 23-10-2 against the spread. Tyler Hansbrough is the single hardest working player in the country and always gives the Tar Heels a shot to win. Having Ty Lawson back at point makes the North Carolina players better, allowing them to play to strengths instead of compensating in other areas they are not as skilled at. Their supremacy is shown by 13-1 ATS record versus excellent teams shooting 45 percent or higher with a defense holding opponents to 42 percent or lower this season.
What if Tar Heels are at their worst?
North Carolina is a better than 8-5 choice to cut down the nets Monday night, but that won’t happen if two of these three things happen. Hansbrough can be limited, have him catch the ball 2-3 feet outside comfort level and flash ball-side defender at him, forcing him to make quick decisions. If he looks to pass weak side, off ball defender has to be aware of passes that can be stolen. Hope Danny Green in particular and other shooters are off on three-pointers, never giving easy looks. When and if opposing team has lead, move the ball on offense and make Heels play defense for 25 or more seconds on multiple possessions, they will become impatient.
What if Kansas plays their best?
When Kansas is at there best, no team in this field is capable of beating them. They have the size to swallow up the lane and speed at all five positions to run and defend with anyone. The Jayhawks are one team that will be comfortable playing at a faster speed, like UNC or Memphis plays and is truly exceptional in creating dribble penetration to the rim. They make over 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from beyond the arc, plus hold opponents to 38.5 percent shooting on the road. The Jayhawks could be underdog twice in San Antonio and come away national champs. They are 6-1 ATS in this role and 5-0 ATS off win by less than six points.
What if Jayhawks are at their worst?
In the Bill Self era and even when Roy Williams was the coach in Lawrence, Kansas showed the capacity to tighten up in critical games and situations. The signs are more obvious than a Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays season outcome. The Jayhawks start jacking up jump shots, stand on offensive sets and two players hang their heads after opponents made baskets. If opposing team is dictating tempo, they become stagnant and are 1-7 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or points a game this season. For all their balance, they don’t have reliable go-to player who wants to take big shot in close games. If Brandon Rush is so-so, Kansas is VERY ordinary in big games.
What if Memphis plays their best?
Combine aggressive defense, crashing the boards with authority, dribble penetration offensive AND the ability to make free throws, and Memphis at just under 3-1 odds is a load. Of any team in the Final Four, if this was round-robin, they would be most likely to win all three games when they are playing like they are right now. Derrick Rose has been the cherry on the top of the desert, which has made this Tigers team virtually unstoppable. Chris Douglas-Roberts is a complete player and the frontline is domineering over opponents in the paint. Coach Calipari teams are 57-33 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game, after 15 or more contests in a season.
What if Tigers are at their worst?
Playing top level competition in December is not the same as being in a big moment like the Final Four. In only loss to Tennessee, Memphis players seemed more intent on showing they could make outside shots, than playing their game. In spite of exceptional talent coming off the bench, this is a team that is better with the sum of its parts. When Scott Wieland was booted from Stone Temple Pilots, the rest of the members thought they could go on. If Joey Dorsey gets into foul trouble, or Rose as freshman, becomes overwhelmed by the moment, the Tigers could fall to 1-7 ATS off a cover again. One last point, the free throw shooting is just a couple of clanks away from rearing ugly head.
What if UCLA plays their best?
UCLA is making third straight trip to Final Four and just over 3-1 odds to win it all. The Bruins have players’ familiar with the pressures of the media, scrutiny by the masses and the team with the most to prove, based on the last two seasons coming up short. UCLA is 8-2 ATS after scoring 75 points or more two straight games this season, proving they can play with the high octane teams in this field, yet can play lock down defense on the perimeter like they did against Xavier. Desire is one aspect that is impossible to measure in situations like this, nonetheless, juniors Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute have played prominent roles on this stage and have the big game experience that should allow them to shine. Like Memphis, coach Ben Howland believes Kevin Love was the one missing piece to complete circle of success.
What if Bruins are at their worst?
Go ahead, name productive backcourt player coming off the UCLA bench? If Collison has problems with scoring or turnovers, Bruins have immediate issues. Josh Shipp has been unhealthy in the tournament and his jump shot has shown it, hitting 33 percent in tourney’s first four games. Kevin Love has created matchup issues for opposing clubs with well-rounded skills, however the prowess of the frontcourts he will see will test his defensive skills as well, particularly his lack of cutting off drives on the baseline that could lead to baskets and him picking up cheap fouls. UCLA has to score 70 points; otherwise they are likely out with 2-10 ATS mark this 2007-08 campaign.
Betting Notes at 3DW
Stepped out today playing three NBA games, but truthfully confident each should come in.
NBA Plays
2* Washington - New York - Portland
The Wizards play is more about Milwaukee than Washington, as this article points out. New York is horrible, but Memphis an eight point favorite? The Lakers are struggling to cover spreads and each team is .500 in road/home situation, why not take the points.
Passing on baseball, as I'm very selective the first two weeks.
The Left Coast Connection just has a play on the Wizards tonight.
I've received very interesting information on a baseball bettor. He plays underdogs almost exclusively and has a track record I'm told is among the best in terms of units won. Unlike myself, he plays from day one. Tonight he has San Francisco, Houston and the White Sox, stay tuned.
NBA Plays
2* Washington - New York - Portland
The Wizards play is more about Milwaukee than Washington, as this article points out. New York is horrible, but Memphis an eight point favorite? The Lakers are struggling to cover spreads and each team is .500 in road/home situation, why not take the points.
Passing on baseball, as I'm very selective the first two weeks.
The Left Coast Connection just has a play on the Wizards tonight.
I've received very interesting information on a baseball bettor. He plays underdogs almost exclusively and has a track record I'm told is among the best in terms of units won. Unlike myself, he plays from day one. Tonight he has San Francisco, Houston and the White Sox, stay tuned.
Tuesday Sports Betting Info
Based on past post about playing against Boston, time to get started right now. The Red Sox are -132 road favorites and starter Dice-K Matsuzaka minimized the damage he could have incurred and escaped with two runs against the A's. Don't believe that will happen again and like the fact Oakland has won 7 of 12 against BoSox at home the last two years. Playing A's on the money line.
In the NBA, have three plays. Like Orlando, they well-rested and motivation shouldn't be a problem, facing the best team in the West in New Orleans. Also playing Houston, but no more than -2 points. Rockets are 13-4 ATS on the road off a road loss over the last two seasons.
Recap: 2* Houston - Orlando
In the NHL, playing the UNDER with Calgary/Edmonton, seeing they have done so 21 of last 29 times they met. Also in the hockey, red-hot Washington can catch Carolina in the Southeast Division, I think they do on home ice.
The Left Coast Connection has the following tonight:
MLB- Toronto
NBA - San Antonio
CBB- Ole Miss
I actually like the Blue Jays also, just wished they would have played yesterday. It seems like when you wait, the dynamics change. If the Rebels played better on the road, I'd been on them also.
In the NBA, have three plays. Like Orlando, they well-rested and motivation shouldn't be a problem, facing the best team in the West in New Orleans. Also playing Houston, but no more than -2 points. Rockets are 13-4 ATS on the road off a road loss over the last two seasons.
Recap: 2* Houston - Orlando
In the NHL, playing the UNDER with Calgary/Edmonton, seeing they have done so 21 of last 29 times they met. Also in the hockey, red-hot Washington can catch Carolina in the Southeast Division, I think they do on home ice.
The Left Coast Connection has the following tonight:
MLB- Toronto
NBA - San Antonio
CBB- Ole Miss
I actually like the Blue Jays also, just wished they would have played yesterday. It seems like when you wait, the dynamics change. If the Rebels played better on the road, I'd been on them also.
Early Baseball Betting Angle
Mentioned yesterday about a baseball wagering opportunity to consider. The Boston Red Sox are of course the defending World Series champions and have been dealt about as cruel a hand to start the season as any baseball team could. (Phil Hellmuth would be whining like crazy) By now you know they had to fly to Japan to play two regular season games against Oakland, along with putting on clinics and other things when they visited.
They flew back to Los Angeles to play exhibition games (that makes sense) against the Dodgers, before flying up the coast to finish A's "home" series on April 1st and 2nd. (This is no joke and it gets better) Granted, in order to get home they have to fly East, but to Toronto for weekend series? For those keeping score, that's three countries in 10 days.
After off day on April 7, it is three games with Detroit, who figures to compete with BoSox for top honors in the AL, followed by three with the hated Yankees. If that weren't enough, a brief four game trip to two cities ...................just two of the teams that were in the American League postseason, Cleveland and those fun-loving Yankees.
That is three countries and seven cities (including L.A.) in 24 days. Even Tampa Bay would have reason to complain, let alone the defending champions of the baseball.
This all leads to betting against the Red Sox, through no fault of their own, especially when they are favored in this time period. It would make sense they would be overvalued as champs, and having to play this tough of schedule would be challenging enough. Throw in all the travel, thanks to Bud the Commish and this appears to be money-making proposition playing against the Red Sox.
They flew back to Los Angeles to play exhibition games (that makes sense) against the Dodgers, before flying up the coast to finish A's "home" series on April 1st and 2nd. (This is no joke and it gets better) Granted, in order to get home they have to fly East, but to Toronto for weekend series? For those keeping score, that's three countries in 10 days.
After off day on April 7, it is three games with Detroit, who figures to compete with BoSox for top honors in the AL, followed by three with the hated Yankees. If that weren't enough, a brief four game trip to two cities ...................just two of the teams that were in the American League postseason, Cleveland and those fun-loving Yankees.
That is three countries and seven cities (including L.A.) in 24 days. Even Tampa Bay would have reason to complain, let alone the defending champions of the baseball.
This all leads to betting against the Red Sox, through no fault of their own, especially when they are favored in this time period. It would make sense they would be overvalued as champs, and having to play this tough of schedule would be challenging enough. Throw in all the travel, thanks to Bud the Commish and this appears to be money-making proposition playing against the Red Sox.
Final Four Dance Card is Filled Today
In the end, Louisville made three critical turnovers after tying the game at 59 and North Carolina lathered in the embrace of a pro-Tar Heels crowd to beat Louisville by 10. If I made a mistake in taking the Cardinals, it was underestimating the impact of the crowd. I was well aware UNC was 24-1 in NCAA tournament games played in the state of North Carolina and 8-0 in NCAA tournament games played in Charlotte. My numbers had a close game and in truth, even though I lost, it was not a crushing defeat, I just lost believing I had the correct side.
I'm playing Texas as a 2* today against Memphis. I don't believe the Tigers will make 74 percent again from the free throw line and like the fact the Longhorns are 9-2 ATS after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half. Throw in the fact, #2 seeds are 6-2 ATS over #1 seeds in Elite 8 games since 1998.
The Left Coast Connection has 81 percent of members picking Texas also. Davidson is not official play; however is picked by 66 percent of this group.
Baseball starts here in the States (doesn't that seem stupid) tonight, will be good to have my favorite sport get going. Check in tomorrow, I'll have something to look for in early MLB action.
I'm playing Texas as a 2* today against Memphis. I don't believe the Tigers will make 74 percent again from the free throw line and like the fact the Longhorns are 9-2 ATS after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half. Throw in the fact, #2 seeds are 6-2 ATS over #1 seeds in Elite 8 games since 1998.
The Left Coast Connection has 81 percent of members picking Texas also. Davidson is not official play; however is picked by 66 percent of this group.
Baseball starts here in the States (doesn't that seem stupid) tonight, will be good to have my favorite sport get going. Check in tomorrow, I'll have something to look for in early MLB action.
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