On the hunt for Super Saturday

When we last did this we got slapped around pretty good, time to change it up on Saturday and attack. We have an 85.7 percent Best System play in the Upper Midwest. The Top Trend is 11-0 and could be a fly by winner. Sal was very strong last Saturday and will back the team on the banks of the Hudson River.

What I thought today- I’m not saying this won’t be good, however when a group of handicappers all get on one-side, my best estimate is the play craps out about two-thirds of the time. Today such a play is Washington with the points against USC. I’m not saying to play the Trojans either, just be careful.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home favorites of 21.5 or more points like Meechigan who excellent rushing team who are averaging 4.8 or more YPA, against a team with a terrible rushing defense who allows the same or worse amount of yards per carry in non-conference games. Dating back to 1992 this system is 24-4, ATS, 85.7 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) The Air Force is is 11-0 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal was 6-2 in CFB last weekend and has the Army as his best bet going today.

Check out today’s Guaranteed CFB Plays.

The Platinum Sheet Forecaster was 11-6 ATS last week in CFB.

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Early Line Movers

Next year 3Daily Winners expects to have a football newsletter, but in the meantime, we will offer Free inside information. When we say “inside information” we mean finding material not commonly found on other websites and blogs. In other words we had to figure it out. One popular and profitable segment I’ve followed for years is Early Line Moves.

As I mentioned last week, I was uncertain again how good accurate the lines would be with the public attacking them for so long and in the NFL that turned out to be half true with the totals 0-3 and sides 3-2. The college sides performed poorly again as 2-3, making season record 7-11. The college total rebounded with 5-3 mark, making new record 7-6.

I’m a little concerned about the numbers this season, since the sources I’ve used for years have been bought and sold and I’m not 100 percent sure everything is on the level. I’ll keep going for now and see what happens.

College Sides
Boise State -12 to -7.5
Kansas -19 to -22
USC -23 to -18
Auburn -4 to -7
Oklahoma -14 to -17.5
Texas A&M -16 to -19
Kentucky -10.5 to -13.5
Cincinnati +2.5 to -1
Arizona State -17 to -20

College Totals
Navy/Pitt 55.5 to 52
BC/Clemson 48 to 45
AZ/Iowa 46.5 to 41.5
Duke/Kansas 48 to 51
Neb/VT 54 to 51
Nev/ CSU 53 to 57
Buff/UCF 55 to 48.5
UTS/Tex A&M 54 to 57.5
Haw/UNLV 52 to 55

NFL Sides
None

NFL Totals
Oak/KC 41 to 38.5
Cleve/Den 40 to 37.5
Balt/SD 42.5 to 40

College Football Saturday Action

This week in college football, a number of teams have different types of motivation, making it interesting for the sports bettors to not only wager on but get emotionally involved. Texas would have played for BCS title if they hadn’t lost to Texas Tech, now they get them in Austin. Teenagers are married with kids the last time Notre Dame won at home against Michigan State (1993). Auburn had West Virginia by the throat at 17-3, but gave 31 consecutive points in loss last season. Miami’s win gives Nebraska hope they can start to return as power with win at Virginia Tech and BYU opens home slate against the ACC’s Florida State. Will Tennessee coach Lane Kiffin’s oratory skills help his team in Florida? It promises to be quite a day. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Michigan State (+10, 55.5) at Notre Dame NBC 3:30E

Maybe the only team less intimidated by the Touchdown Jesus surroundings in South Bend is USC, compared to Michigan State. The Spartans are 1-1 after being upset by Central Michigan 29-27 last week as 14.5-point chalk at home and have won six straight at Notre Dame Stadium, five as an underdog. A pair of sophomore quarterbacks will make first trip to northern Indiana. Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol have shown why the coaching staff has had a difficult time in going with one signal caller, as each has played well when called upon. Of course neither has seen the type of blitzing defense Notre Dame brings in defensive coach Jon Tuneta’s scheme and each will have to keep their poise in the face of pressure. The Spartans are 13-2 ATS in road games after playing two straight non-conference games.

The Fighting Irish return home off incredibly disappointing 38-34 loss to Michigan, losing in the last 11 seconds. Notre Dame’s defensive front has not matched up well with the Spartans big offense line and will have to pressure the young Michigan State quarterbacks into miscues. The Irish will have to contend with the Spartans excellent tight ends, the best in the Big Ten. Jimmy Clausen looks ready for big season and why not, throwing to receivers like Michael Floyd and Golden Tate, who are unmatched in going and getting the ball. Notre Dame is 5-2 ATS off a straight defeat.

Motivation is not an issue for the Fighting Irish, but they will have to overcome Michigan State’s confidence playing them, as the Spartans are 9-2-1 ATS vs. Notre Dame and can physically compete no problem. The home team is 1-5-1 ATS in last seven matchups. For sports bettors, this one can be easy, as the straight up winner is sensational 14-1 against the spread.

3DW Line – Notre Dame by 6

Tennessee (+30, 53) at Florida CBS 3:30E

The one word that comes to mind when thinking about the two coaches of this anticipated matchup is “ruthless”. Tennessee’s new head coach Lane Kiffin has shown a proclivity towards wanting his players to be mercenaries, playing hard and enjoying doing things his way. He needs his quarterback Jonathan Crompton to be more poised than what he was last week against UCLA, when he tossed three interceptions. The Vols are 13-4 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.

Kiffin’s mouth has caused a ranker within the SEC, however, he’s been unafraid to play his freshmen recruits and they are delivering for him thus far. The comforts of Knoxville give way to the alarming craziness of Gainesville, which is about as different as country and western and zydeco music. Tennessee will find a blue-clad bunch that is 11-3 ATS after playing a game at home over the last three seasons.

Under Urban Meyer, Florida football is like a football sized-field, full of live Gators in search of a meal. Led by Tim Tebow, these Gators have an unquenchable hunger for success and don’t like anybody trying to cut in on their action. After dismissing a couple of patsies, Florida is ready for the real thing and is 12-4 and 11-4-1 ATS against Tennessee, including four consecutive triumphs under Meyer (3-1 ATS). Florida has shown their version of hurry-up offense, which makes them that much more difficult to prepare for. The Gators come into this bitter battle 7-0 ATS at home off a non-conference tilt.

Meyer is very comfortable with his position in college football and was not amused with Kiffin’s antics after he became Vols coach. Meyer’s teams in Florida are 31-18-2 ATS overall and they are 17-7-1 ATS as favorites in The Swamp. The Gators are 11-3-1 against the spread run in first SEC game of the season and assuredly will want to send a message to Tennessee. No matter the outcome, don’t expect Kiffin to give an inch and the Volunteers are 19-8 ATS on the road after one or more consecutive straight up losses.

3DW Line – Florida by 18.5

Nebraska (+5, 50) at Virginia Tech ABC 3:30E

Nebraska pauses from its September slate of hosting Sun Belt teams to check out the unfriendly facilities of Virginia Tech. The Cornhuskers have only six starting seniors, three on each side of the ball and they will have to provide leadership in first road test. Nebraska football has made the transition to junior college transfer Zac Lee at quarterback and he’s shown poise and delivers very catchable balls. Running back Roy Helu has played well, knowing any slip up will bring true freshman Rex Burkhead off the bench. The defense is light on experience, but has been tackling much better, per the request of coach Bo Pelini. The Huskers are 5-11 ATS as road underdogs.

Virginia Tech started correcting some of the problems they had in opening game versus Alabama with a resounding victory over Marshall 52-10, rushing for 444 yards. The Hokies offensive line needs to be the strength, as wide receivers and running backs are learning their way in the offense. Tyrod Taylor wants to prove he can pass in the pocket; nevertheless, he’s far more dangerous when running and creating better lanes for himself to pass or run. The defense is skilled, but rather light and can’t stay on the field for extended periods or will wear down like they did against Alabama late in the contest. The Hokies are 9-2-1 ATS as home favorites against ranked opponents.

These teams played in 35-30 shootout last year in Lincoln, with Virginia Tech winning and covering the seven points they received. The Cornhuskers are 5-15 ATS in road games after consecutive wins by 21 or more points The Hokies have covered 60 percent of their games (30-18 ATS) after a win since 2004 and are 9-2 ATS after scoring 40 or more points. They will try to build momentum before hosting Miami in ACC opener next week, however are just 2-8-1 ATS in last 11 regular season non-conference games.

3DW Line – Virginia Tech by 8

Florida State (+8, 54.5) at BYU Versus 7:00E

Florida State sort of cleaned the wounds of Miami loss by scoring 12 points in the fourth quarter against Jacksonville State to win 19-9 and makes the trip to Provo, which appears even more formidable than when the season began. Defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews likes the speed he has on the Florida State defense, but as he professed before Hurricanes epic affair, if his Seminoles players aren’t in the right place to make plays, speed is rendered useless. Miami carved up the Florida State secondary for 386 yards in opener and coming into the season, nobody was confusing the Canes for passing team like BYU. It will be imperative that the Noles to run the ball and quarterback Christian Ponder is on target to keep Cougars offense off the field. Florida State is 15-10 ATS since 2003 in non-conference play.

This will be the home opener for BYU, still in celebratory mood after Oklahoma upset and 52-3 road wipeout at Tulane. Quarterback Max Hall has shown the calm needed from a fifth year senior and has floated the ball around to different receivers expertly, including his favorite target, tight end Dennis Pitta. Defensive coordinator Jaime Hill has put together two exceptional game plans and his team’s toughness and physical play has not always been associated with BYU football. This week brings another stern test and the Cougars are 10-3 and 9-3 ATS in home openers since 1996.

These teams met in the old Pigskin Classics to start the season in 1991 and 2000, with Florida State winning and covering both. The Seminoles are 6-0 against the number off a non-conference tilt vs a foe off win by 10 or more points, while BYU is 0-10 ATS as a home favorite of 14 or less off two road games.

3DW Line – BYU by 10.5

West Virginia (+7, 54) at Auburn ESPN2 7:45E

This is weighty conflict for West Virginia after impressive 35-20 performance against East Carolina. Wins over SEC teams carry a lot of weight, especially when opponents can achieve success in enemy territory. West Virginia has knocked off four SEC teams the last four years; with three covers (two of the wins were over Miss. State). QB Jarrett Brown has been solid, if not spectacular and gotten the ball in the hands of playmakers like Jock Sanders. Scatback Noel Devine has been even better at cutbacks and making tacklers miss and has outrun defenders, when it looks like they have angles to bring his down. The Mountaineers are 24-12-1 ATS on the road the seven seasons.

The hiring of Gene Chizik as Auburn head coach brought more frowns than applause. His offense has been more productive in the hands of quarterback Chris Todd thus far, averaging 43 points and 572 yards per game. The senior took a great deal of heat from Tiger fans and lost his confidence last season. To date, his maturity has been superior, helped immensely by a better offensive line and running back combination of Ben Tate and freshman Ontario McCalebb. Auburn’s defense is fighting thru injuries and won’t be 100 percent to take on West Virginia’s multi-faceted attack. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS after playing a conference game.

These teams met last year in Morgantown, in contest that turned on a dime. Auburn led 17-3, when West Virginia’s offense exploded and scored the next 31 points to win going away 34-17. The Mountaineers are 5-2 ATS as underdogs but 3-7 against the number off a victory. The Tigers are 20-6-1 ATS after rushing for 200 or more yards.

This confrontation may not have national implications, nonetheless, for the respective programs, a definite building block contest towards a successful campaign.

3DW Line – Auburn by 8

Texas Tech (+17.5, 66) at Texas ABC 8:00E

Starting with the 2005 season, Mack Brown made a decision to have a less button-downed approach as a coach and become more demonstrative. Along with a slew of talented players, the Longhorns won a national championship that year and Brown has kept that same personality intact with Texas piling up wins.

Last year’s lone blemish cost Texas a chance to play for BCS championship when Michael Crabtree made a spectacular play with one second on the clock and Texas Tech won 39-33. If ever a moment was created for payback by senior Colt McCoy and his Horns teammates, this is it. Coach Brown won’t have to motivate his players to be ready for this prime time tilt, the Texas players will take care of that themselves. The Longhorns are 17-8 ATS as favorites of 10.5 or more points in Austin.

Junior Taylor Potts has faced North Dakota and Rice at Lubbock in his first two starts as the triggerman in Mike Leach’s aerial assault attack. He’ll be asked to maintain his poise on the road for the first time against a bitter rival. Don’t expect coach Leach to panic, he just reloads with the next capable chucker and always has a flock of talented pass-catchers that thrive in his system. Defense will be the greater concern against Texas, trying to stop McCoy from hogging the pigskin and scoring too many points. The Red Raiders are 12-7 ATS as road underdogs in Leach’s tenure.

As mentioned, this is road opener for Texas Tech and they are 7-6 and 4-8-1 ATS as travelers. The home team has had the better of things of late with 8-3 ATS mark in series which began in 1928. Dating back to 1993, the favorite is a mere 6-10 against the spread; nevertheless, the Longhorns are 8-2 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70.

3DW Line – Texas by 11

Boise State travels to Raisin Country

Boise State opens defense of its WAC title and goes for its seventh crown in eight years with even higher ambitions. The Broncos have started in scintillating fashion with consecutive wins over Oregon and Miami-O and have their eyes pointed to another BCS berth if they can go undefeated and be impressive in its televised tilts. They will take to the road for their first conference game against a team noted for playing the good teams tough.

The Broncos are 54-2 and 35-21 ATS in WAC play since joining in 2001, with one of those straight up losses coming in 2005 at Bulldog Stadium 27-7. Fresno State coach Pat Hill has always placed great importance on certain games and evidently not others, as Fresno State has never won a WAC title in his 12 years. However, this one matchup the Bulldogs would love to have and get Fresno State on the home page of sports websites.

The Bulldogs almost knocked off the Big Ten’s Wisconsin Badgers on the road last Saturday. Fresno State held 21-7 lead as 7.5-point underdogs, but three Ryan Colburn second half interceptions kept Wisconsin in the game and the Bulldogs eventually lost 34-31 in double overtime. Coach Hill has expressed confidence his team will respond to bitterly disappointing loss, there is evidence to suggest otherwise with Fresno State 5-11-1 and plaintive 1-16-1 ATS of defeat.

Sports bettors are passing on various sorts of this kind of information.

DiamondSportsbook.com opened the Bulldogs as 12-point underdogs and has moved them downward to +7.5 according to the action, with total of 53.5. Fresno State has lost seven of last eight SU and ATS, including last three by almost 30 points per game.

Boise State is 11-3 ATS after one or more consecutive wins against the spread and 6-0 UNDER in road games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more over the last three seasons.

Fresno State is 0-7 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored and 13-4 UNDER at after covering one or more wins spreads.

This is one of what is believed to be three road tests for Boise State, which will be played before a boisterous Bulldogs crowd. The Broncos are expected to win the game, yet are only 10-11 ATS as away favorites since 2005.

ESPN has the kickoff at 9 Eastern and in last eight WAC meetings; the winner has covered the spread by 14 points per game.

Thursday Wagering Action

Officially a 0-1 day and it was a brutal loss if you didn’t see the game. You can read more about it below. Today’s Best System is in college football tonight at 27-5 ATS and the Top Trend is 84 percent in afternoon action. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday: My goodness (kids could be reading this), did the Halos get hosed last night. They led an incredibly exciting game 8-7 in the bottom in the ninth with the bases loaded. Nick Green was the pitch hitter (he of the .236 BA) and he worked the count from 0-2 to 3-2. On the next pitch, Brian Fuentes threw a perfect down the middle strike at the knees which was called a ball, ESPN strike zone box show the entire ball was within the box, leaving no doubt it was a strike. Worst homer call (or chicken crap) I’d seen this year.

On the topic of absurd, check out this read from our friend Kevin O’Neill.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON underdogs like Georgia Tech of 3.5 to 10 points off a win against a conference rival, in September games. This simplistic system delivers results at 27-5 ATS, 84.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Dave Bush of the Milwaukee Brewers is 4-21 in day road games losing by 1.3 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Andy of the LCC is 7-3 betting baseball this week after 3-0 Wednesday and likes Boston to sweep the Angels.

Check out today’s Guaranteed Plays.

The Platinum Sheet Forecaster was 11-6 ATS in CFB last week.

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ACC Affair in College Football Thursday

Miami is going to need every one of the nine days off to get ready for Georgia Tech after thriller in Tallahassee, outlasting Florida State 38-34 as six point underdogs. Quarterback Jacory Harris was magnificent throwing for 386 yards and running back Kraig Cooper was a versatile all-around performer in running the ball, catching passes and returning kicks. The defense gave up 404 yards and was especially vulnerable to routes over the middle 10-18 yards down the field.

However, coach Randy Shannon is going to leave the details for the practice field and focus in on the bigger picture. “I’m confident in this football team,” Shannon said. “From what we had to go through three years ago to where we’re at now, it’s a totally different team, totally different mentality.”

The 20th ranked Hurricanes can further enhance their image of yesteryear with a win over No. 14 Georgia Tech Thursday night at LandShark Stadium. Miami has spent a great deal of practice time on improving all areas of special teams, which could described as giving the “golden parachute” of field position, as they allowed the Seminoles average starting at its own 43-yard line following Canes kicks, and three times started drives on Miami’s side of the 50. Miami is only 6-13-1 ATS off a straight up win.

For their home opener, the Hurricanes will have to play assignment football to control Georgia Tech’s option and they are 12-1 on Thursday night’s with cheerless 4-8 ATS record.

This will be the Yellow Jackets second straight Thursday encounter after surviving against Clemson last week 30-27 as five-point favorites. This is Georgia Tech’s first road game of 2009 and they’ll have to clean up the fumbling bugaboo that cost them a couple of wins last year and has returned again. Quarterback Josh Nesbitt has put the pigskin on the ground, though his passing has looked better on occasion to start the year. Last year’s ACC rushing leader Jonathan Dwyer looks like he’s in for another big year and the addition of transfer A-back Anthony Allen adds another dimension to offense. Georgia Tech is only 13-10 ATS the first half of the season the last four years.

Georgia Tech’s defensive front had three players chosen in the NFL draft, with defensive end Derrick Morgan the only holdover. Morgan has been an absolute terror with five sacks in the first two games and has been backed up by a solid group behind him. Expect Yellow Jackets coaches to bring linebackers and safeties to disrupt Harris and keep him from getting comfortable in the pocket for club that is 15-6-1 ATS off a spread loss.

Bookmaker.com has Miami as five-point favorites with total of 54. The Hurricanes are despicable 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points and are 15-5 UNDER in home games off a road win against a conference rival. Georgia Tech is 19-6 ATS after playing a Thursday game and 12-3 UNDER after a win by six or less points.

The Yellow Jackets are 4-0 straight up and against the spread in four ACC meetings with Miami, including two outright road upsets. The Canes are 1-6 SU and ATS versus Georgia Tech dating back 32 years and are 0-6 against the spread at home when playing with revenge. The Hurricanes are only 17-24 ATS since joining the ACC in conference play.

Hump Day Action

Like I said, baseball is in its “doesn’t make sense” period and we were 1-2 yesterday and easily could have been 0-3. The Best System would have essentially been a repeat of yesterday, so instead we look ahead to college football with 26-5 system. The Top Trend is near perfect in tonight Angels/Red Sox meeting. Today I just offer information for Free Picks. Good Luck

What I learned today: Barry Zito had nine strikeouts in his win over the Rockies, including three against Todd Helton. The only other pitchers to strike out Helton three times in one game were Darren Dreifort (June 13, 1998) and Dontrelle Willis (May 6, 2005). Thanks Elias

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Free Football System-1) All the best systems of 80 percent or higher involve the Dodgers over Pittsburgh again. Instead of being redundant, we’ll look to Saturday where we look to PLAY AGAINST road teams like UL –Lafayette, off an upset win as a home underdog, with 16 total starters returning. Dating back nine years, this system is 26-5 ATS, 83.9 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Joe Saunders and the Angels are 11-1 after two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) No official play today, with most guys still betting baseball hanging around .500 the last week or so. From the Left Coast Connection, Florida was chosen by 75 % over the Cards. In tonight’s big games, Colorado rates 55 % and the Angels 71 percent.

Check out Guaranteed Football Picks for this next week. We were 3-0 in the NFL and Paul Buck was 7-4 for the entire week.

The Platinum Sheet doing big numbers in New York area with satisfied customers.

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Know your College Football Coaches before wagering

For those that love to wager on college football, it comes in handy to know certain tendencies of the head coach. Though virtually every coach could care less about the point spread on any game they are involved in coaching, word will filter down thru various channels that high-profile alumni with large banking accounts wouldn’t mind the home team covering a spread against a particular opponent. Though no head coach will worry about such a trivial matter consciously leading into a contest, given the right set of circumstances late in a contest with his team comfortably ahead, but not covering the spread, he might be inclined to run up the score.

Though there is no way to prove a coaches motive, in 1995, coach Tom Osborne of Nebraska had the No.1 team in the country heading into last regular season game against Oklahoma at Lincoln. The Cornhuskers were monstrous 34-point favorites and basically was toying with the Sooners, leading 30-0 late in the game. In the final drive, Nebraska went for a first down THREE times on fourth down and eventually scored a touchdown to cover the spread, with 37-0 shutout. If I hadn’t seen it with my own eyes, I never would have believed it.

Another example was last season when Florida hosted Miami in Gainesville. The Gators were 23-point favorites against the Hurricanes and that night despite dominating the action, led just 23-3 in the final minutes. Urban Meyer could have easily run out the clock deep in Miami territory, but instead had Tim Tebow throw two passes towards end zone before settling for field goal and a Push.

Most bettors might know about the head coach where they live, or even the coaches within the conference. Only a select few would be able to recall all the different variables from all the head coaches in the FBS.

Here is a breakdown of the top coaches in several areas based on latest runs. (Coaches only at present school)

Coaches with best home ATS records-

Troy Calhoun – Air Force -8-2
Chris Ault -Nevada – 19-7
Kirk Ferentz – Iowa – 39-22
Garry Patterson – TCU – 36-19
Al Groh - Virginia- 31-18

Notes- Randy Edsall of Connecticut deserves to be mentioned with 26-16 ATS at Rentschler Stadium. Miami’s Randy Shannon has made the Hurricanes at Play Against team in their new home with 3-9 ATS mark. Bob Stoops might have a harder time keeping up with 35-25 ATS record in Norman without Sam Bradford at quarterback for unknown period of time. Charley Weis has making up to do to Irish bettors with 11-16 ATS mark.

Coaches with best road ATS records-

Turner Gill –Buffalo- 17-6
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 8-3
Mark Dantonio – Mich. State 8-4
Charlie Weatherbie –UL- Monroe – 26-16
Jim Grobe – Wake Forest– 28-19

Notes-In years past, Mark Richt of Georgia would have been on this list, however 3-5-1 spread record of late drops him to still solid 31-22-1 ATS mark. Mark Snyder is in trouble in his fifth season at Marshall and for good reason with 3-22 and 6-17 ATS record. As good as Chris Ault is at home, he is a dismal 14-22 ATS after being spanked by Notre Dame earlier. Mike Sanford of UNLV is looking to finish .500 or better in Sin City and in order to so he needs the Rebels to be better than 0-7 ATS against .500 or less teams.

Coaches with best favorite ATS records-

Troy Calhoun – Air Force -9-2
Mark Mangino –Kansas -25-9
Mike Gundy –Okla. State – 15-7
Chris Ault- Nevada – 21-12
Steve Spurrier – South Carolina -14-7

Notes-Considering the number of large figures Florida has to overcome; Urban Meyer’s 27-18 ATS record is fairly impressive. Though Wake Forest is great play as underdog, they are 19-28 ATS as chalk. On a similar note, Vanderbilt has is off first bowl game in 27 years, yet flounders as favorite with 6-13 ATS record. The price isn’t right on Mike Price from UTEP, sporting unflattering 10-19 against the spread record in this role.

Coaches with best underdog ATS records-

Skip Holtz – ECU- 20-7
Butch Davis – UNC – 8-3
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 14-6
Turner Gill –Buffalo- 20-10
Mack Brown – Texas – 10-5

Notes- Skip Holtz learned from his father about being able to succeed as underdog. The same cannot be said about Ohio State’s Jim Tressel who is pedestrian 9-8 versus the oddsmaker. Mentioned Wake’s coach Grobe above, 31-17 ATS will swell any bankroll when the Demon Deacons are catching points. Two shockers from the desert. Mike Stoops’ Wildcats are 20-14 ATS receiving points, while Arizona State’s Dennis Erickson is 1-7 ATS.

Best coaches Off a SU Win, ATS records-

Troy Calhoun – Air Force -13-5
Turner Gill –Buffalo- 11-4
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 8-3
Mark Mangino- Kansas – 27-12
Dick Tomey – S.J. State -12-6

Notes- Rick Brooks of Kentucky has had success in Lexington and his squads follow up success with 18-10 ATS performance. With Missouri greatly improved the last few years, it easy to forget Gary Pinkel is 24-27 ATS after a W. Kyle Whittingham’s perfect season helped raise Utah to 20-12 ATS with victory after victory. Though Pat Fitzgerald is well liked in the Windy City, he’s detested by Northwestern backers with 4-13 ATS record after the ‘Cats have conquered opponent.

Best coaches Off a SU Loss, ATS records-

Pete Carroll – USC -10-3
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 8-3
Mike Leach – Texas Tech -21-10
Bobby Bowden –Florida State- 43-23
Randy Edsall– UConn – 28-15

Notes- Any sports bettor should have made a large chunk of money following the exploits of the Top Five in this category. The same cannot be said of Idaho’s Robb Akey who is 4-13 ATS following a loss. Dan Hawkins is losing support by the minute in Boulder and 7-14 ATS record isn’t making matters better. What about blustery Fresno State head coach Pat Hill, who loves the big moment, but is 19-33 ATS off a loss.

Totals System in Baseball Ready to Unload

No pennant race talk in this article, instead we’re on the hunt for a baseball betting winner and the potential is there to cash winning ticket. The Cincinnati Reds were spotted as frauds at the All-Star break hovering around .500, despite having the 14th rated runs scored and runs allowed figures in the National League. The baseball gods finally caught up with the Reds and they lost 14 out of 15 after the break.

Fortunately for Cincinnati (66-79, -2.9 units), they play in the same division as Pittsburgh, so finishing last is usually taken care of by the Pirates. The Reds have had their share of injuries, which might have contributed to better offensive numbers, yet the facts state what the Reds are, not very good offensively, ranked 28th in baseball.

It hasn’t been a marquee season in Houston (70-75, -0.9 units) either, trying to squeeze one more pennant chase out of the oldest team in the big leagues, with a pitching staff being held together with yarn and duct tape beyond Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez. The Astros don’t swing the bats a whole lot better than Cincinnati, ranked 25th in runs scored at 4.1 runs per game.

September baseball is a real challenge to wager on, with so many unexpected occurrences. Take this series, Houston had won seven out of ten and came to play on the banks of the Ohio River, having beaten the Reds 16 out of last 21 in their own ballpark. Cincinnati returned home after losing five of last six on extended road trip and they were set to be underdogs against the Astros best starters Rodriguez and Oswalt, in the first two meetings.

So what happens, Cincy wins the first two games as home underdogs and goes for the sweep today. The Reds are -120 money line favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com, with a total of Ov9 (remember that number).

Today’s pitching matchup won’t make this the game of the day, with Justin Lehr (4-2, 4.93 ERA) facing Yorman Bazardo (0-1, 9.00). What these pitchers lack in name brand recognition, they are expected to contribute to a top notch Totals system today.

Play Over on all teams when the total is 9 to 9.5, with a winning percentage between 38 and 46 percent, off two straight upset wins over division rivals as a home underdog.

Since 1997, this Total system is 35-11, 76.1 percent, with the average total score being 11.1 runs per game. This system is further aided by Cincinnati sporting a 9-1 OVER record off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog (note the similarity) over the last two seasons and Houston is 29-15 OVER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 since 2007. September baseball, the strangeness never stops, yet winners can still be uncovered.

The Day after Monday Action

Even though I thought the Top Trend was lame based on the spreads. the outcomes were certainly a surprise. I’m not actually going to count that in the record, just call the best I could find yesterday. I will count today’s Trend which has a winning margin of three runs! Today’s Best System is special and 12-0 this season. The Free Pick was a loser Monday, thus we turn to Ken who’s doing quite well the last few days. Good Luck

What I learned today: The Patriots' win over the Bills on Monday was the first in team history in which New England trailed by 11 or more points with less than 2 1/2 minutes to play. Ben Watson became the first player since 1999 to catch two touchdown passes in the final 2:06 of a game which his team won, after his team was trailing by at least 10 points at the time of the first TD catch. Shane Matthews and Curtis Conway combined on two TD passes in the final 1:48 of a Bears' comeback win over the Saints on October 3, 1999.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like Pittsburgh, who can’t hit a lick batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against a hot starting pitcher with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This isn’t your everyday system at 70-5, 93.3 percent the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Roy Oswalt and the Astros are 44-7 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game in the second half of the season, winning by THREE runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ken of the LCC is 14-4 in all sports since Saturday (6-0 in MLB) and views Tampa Bay trumping Baltimore.

Check out Guaranteed Football Picks for this next week. We were 3-0 in the NFL and Paul Buck was 7-4 for the entire week.

The Platinum Sheet doing big numbers in New York area with satisfied customers.

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Looking ahead in the Rearview Mirror

On Saturday, it’s obvious the talent level at Wisconsin has dropped. Former coach and now AD Barry Alvarez locked up most every top recruits in the state of Wisconsin and several very good ones in Iowa and certain pockets of Illinois. Though Barry hand-picked Bret Bielema as his successor, the quality of players on the Madison campus is not the same and Fresno State was superior at several skill positions. The Bulldogs would have beaten the Badgers except for 3-0 turnover margin. Wisky’s first three Big Ten games are Michigan State, at Minnesota and at Ohio State, looking at 1-2 at best.

Speaking of the Spartans, losing at home to Central Michigan! That makes them 1-8-1 ATS before playing Notre Dame, however they have won and covered six straight in South Bend, five as underdogs.

It’s always from adversity we learn about ourselves and have self-examination. After not being able to hold Michigan out of the end zone in its final drive, more than one Notre Dame player talked about lousy practices early in the week, too many players feeling too good about themselves, which they expressed in several news outlets as for the real reason for losing. Notre Dame fans can talk about being jobbed by a few shaky calls, however if you cannot stop opponent from going 57 yards with a little over two minutes in the game, are you really a BCS team? If the Irish are to get back into BCS conversations, that means one loss at best the rest of the way and it can’t be against USC.

The opposite side of the Notre Dame crumble was USC. It’s supposed four NFL offensive linemen were either nullified or outplayed for over three quarters by Ohio State’s defense, until they bulled their necks and carried the team on 14-play, 86-yard drive for the winning score. Freshman sensation QB Matt Barkley was at the controls and he put it best about what separates USC. "We're Trojans. That's what we do," Barkley said. They travel north to see some of their old coaches at Washington and are only 1-6 ATS on the back end of two-game road trip.

It doesn’t matter if Oklahoma State was flat after beating Georgia in its opener, the Houston Cougars can play and have big time athletes. The Cougars led 24-7 at the half and were overwhelmed in the third quarter by the Cowboys 21-0, to fall behind 28-24. Most non-BCS schools would have caved in, but not Houston, they out-scored Okie State 21-7 in the final 15 minutes and gained 512 yards of total offense. QB Case Keenum is legit and Houston has speed all over the field. After covering the 16.5-point spread with ease in Stillwater, Houston has a week off before hosting another Big 12 team in Texas Tech. Don’t be shocked by total around 80.
So much for Jonathan Crompton of Tennessee maturing and being more under control after 13 for 26 performance, that totaled 136 passing yards and three interceptions in 19-15 home loss to UCLA. Crompton found out Bruins players were JUST a touch more talented than those from Western Kentucky. Nothing like having confidence heading to Gainesville.

I believe this was a first for me, literally officially losing a football wager 17 minutes and 29 seconds into a game. Everything pointed to another low-scoring South Carolina and Georgia game, until they started playing. Holding a ticket that said UNDER 40, the Bulldogs kicked a 50-yard field goal to make the score 24-17 Georgia, with 12:29 left in the second quarter. OUCH!

Time for Colorado’s Dan Hawkins to update the old resume after another loathsome performance by his Buffalos team at Akron. I’d be thinking Monster.com ahead of the Ladders.com website right now however.

Upon further review in the NFL

Denver and Cincinnati’s offenses looked fairly uncertain until the final minutes. After bottling up the Bengals the entire game with aggressive blitz packages and man coverage, the Broncos go zone, rush either three or four and Carson Palmer led Cincy down the field for looked like the winning score. Denver got lucky bounce probably of the year they needed for the 12-7 upset win and the wagering public and many Hilton Contest contestants took a bath on the Bengals.

Is Jake Delhomme done? It sure looks that way since teams are going to stack the line of scrimmage forcing him to throw. We’ll see what happens with Donovan McNabb, but you can’t help but be impressed with Philadelphia’s skill players and their team speed.

Tony Romo might have had career yardage passing day, however don’t go gaga. In the first half, he missed several open receivers and benefitted immensely from Tampa Bay’s secondary confused with new system, as much as his own skill.

It’s making more sense all the time why Matt Schaub was never a threat to be starting quarterback in Atlanta before being traded to Houston. Nice work Mark Sanchez.

A hugely popular play Sunday was San Francisco with the points and on the money line. Arizona had shown nothing in the preseason in losing four times and the Niners were prepared mentally for the challenge. Though QB Shaun Hill was intimidated by the Cardinals pass rush for over three quarters, the line buckled down late and Hill led San Fran to outright upset. The impression one has listening to comments from Cards players after the game, this team has acted like they were 13-3 and lost in the Super Bowl, not 9-7. Next is dreaded three time-zone flight to Jacksonville for early start for the Redbirds.

The Giants really controlled Washington and though they got back-doored on the spread, New York has the appearance of a team that should only improve.

Millions of sports bettors were held hostage by Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy’s decision to go for two points after scoring go-head touchdown over Chicago late in the game. This gave the Packers a 19-15 lead and the vast majority of bettors had Green Bay at -4.5 or less. In typical coach fear, McCarthy decides to go for two points trying to give his team a six-point lead, on the rare chance the Bears come back and score and miss the extra point. How rare you ask, at NFL.com, the top 39 kickers last year missed six of 1,176 extra points. That is a success rate of 99.489. Your team just scored late in the game to take the lead and grasp the momentum and you’re willing to give your opponent a reason for hope by stopping two-point attempt for an edge of over a half of one percent? Not smart decision-making unless you are from the Jim Carrey school of math deduction, from the “Dumb and Dumber” movie, with the classic line, “so I still have a chance?”

Study the numbers

In college football, favorites took one in the mustache (Rece Davis reference) with 21-24-1 ATS record. Though all games are not wagered equally, the Totals were split right down the middle in games played at 23 apiece. Double digit favorites were 12-14-1 ATS, however road favorites of 10 to 24 points were 5-0 against the number. Home underdogs were decent 10-7 ATS.

Last week only four games moved three points or more from opening number until closing on the sides and they were 2-2 ATS. Nonetheless, this may be worth following as totals that had the same movement cashed 17 of 23, following the money.

In the NFL, favorites were 8-8 ATS, with the Total dead even at 8-8. Favorites of a touchdown or more were 3-2 ATS and home underdogs were a 1-3 against the number.

3Daily Winners out to stay boiling hot

That’s one heck of a way to start off a full weekend of football with a 7-0 record, including 3-0 yesterday. Today, Slick Rick will go after yet another winner in Free Plays. The Top Trend is really good, but rather expensive and the Best System in baseball is outstanding 89.6 percent. Good Luck

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Colorado with a money line of +150 or more, who are batting .200 or worse over their last three games, against opponent with a starting pitcher who has WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This system has cranked out winners 89.6 percent of the time at 43-5 since 2005.

Free Football Trend -2) On Monday Night, NFL favorites of 10 or more are 22-1 straight up.
Free Baseball Pick -3) Slick Rick has four straight winners here and is chasing down a fifth with the Texas Rangers tonight. (FYI- He played both NFL favorites tonight for smaller wagers he told me)

Guaranteed NFL Plays here at 3Daily Winners.

StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet has terrific information

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Raiders need miracle as underdog

San Diego’s quest for a fourth consecutive AFC West title begins with a trip to Oakland, which finished three games behind the lackluster division winners with a record of 5-11 but managed four wins in 12 outings under Tom Cable, who was retained as head coach after replacing the fired Lane Kiffin.

The Raiders, a miserable 24-72 and 33-62-1 ATS over the last six seasons, haven’t won an opener since 2002 and lost a Week 1 Monday night game to Denver a year ago by a 27-point margin. They were swept by the Chargers, falling 28-18 at home in Kiffin’s finale, after leading by 15 at halftime and 34-7 on the road in the rematch.

Offseason headlines were nothing new for Oakland, which made a splash on draft day but didn’t spend foolishly on free agents. The big additions are wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey (1-Maryland), offensive tackle Khalif Barnes (Jaguars) and defensive end Greg Ellis (Cowboys). The Raiders also acquired Richard Seymour this last week from New England and he’s been less than enthusiastic about wearing the Black and Silver after hearing about all the horror stories in Al Davis’ nuthouse.

Considering the Raiders ranked 29th in total offense and dead last in passing offense, and owner Al Davis’ need for speed, the selection of Heyward-Bey at No. 7 overall shouldn’t have created such an uproar. The fleet-footed rookie, along with Johnnie Lee Higgins, will allow strong-armed quarterback JaMarcus Russell (13 touchdowns, eight interceptions) to let the pigskin fly. It should be noted Heyward-Bey has been dropping passes, which was his weakness coming out of Maryland. Oakland starts the season as 10-point home underdogs at DiamondSportsbook.com, with a total of 42 and they are 9-19-1 ATS as home underdogs.

While Russell completed only 53.8 percent of his passes, San Diego’s Philip Rivers (4,009 yards, 34 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, league-best 105.5 rating) ranked among the leaders with a 65.3 success rate. Funny thing, though, two of Rivers’ three weakest games from an accuracy standpoint came against the Raiders last season. He went 24-for-47 versus Oakland with four touchdowns and two interceptions.

If Rivers comes anywhere close to his production from last season or surpasses it, the Chargers are likely to run away with the division. Their defense, under the direction of Ron Rivera since the midway point of last season, became more attack-oriented than read-and-react, and welcomes back linebacker Shawne Merriman from knee surgery. The unit has some question marks up front. Travis Johnson replaces Igor Olshansky (Cowboys) at left end, fifth-year right end Luis Castillo has yet to play up to his contract and tackle Jamal Williams, entering his 12th year, isn’t getting younger. Even so, it might not matter with San Diego having won 11 in a row over Oakland, covering the spread 10 times.

San Diego covers because they always do against the Raiders. The Chargers have covered seven straight at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, winning six times. San Diego has a number of edges, all related to talent. LaDainian Tomlinson could break back big against unsettled Oakland defensive front that was last against the run in 2008. Though Shawne Merriman missed last season due to injury, he’s shown no ill effects in the preseason and should expose Oakland at either offensive tackle position. The Raiders outside of CB Nnamdi Asomugha are inexperienced and unproven in the secondary, look for San Diego to attack. Lastly, make JaMarcus Russell beat you. Stack the middle against the run and force the former No.1 pick to make consistent throws to inconsistent wide receivers and score enough points to matter. Winning by two touchdowns should not be an issue for the Bolts against a sorry franchise that is 2-11 ATS at home when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.

Oakland covers if they shorten the game by effectively running the ball. Darren McFadden needs the ball in space to be most effective, which means quick pitches or screens to either side. Though the Chargers are big and powerful, they are not more than average in the speed category. Get them moving from side to side and possibly the Raiders can wear down the defense. Tight end Zach Miller needs 7-10 catches in this game, to keep the chains moving and Oakland has to score points of some kind every time they cross the 50-yard line. Defensively, play with a lot of energy and don’t get discouraged by a few big plays. Force field goals and keep Chargers out of the end zone. As a coach, Norv Turner is just 1-9-1 ATS in first division matchup. Execute the plan and THE RAIDERS are within five points with a chance to win late.

Monday Night Angles –Teams like Oakland with just one MNF appearance playing at home are 6-14 ATS as hosts. Road favorites of 10 or more points like San Diego are 1-6 ATS since 1999 on MNF.

College and Pro Football Newsweekly contributed to this article.

Tom Brady returns for Monday Night Football

Not even the absence of Tom Brady last year stopped the Patriots from continuing their dominance of Buffalo. New England swept a fifth straight season series (8-2 ATS) from its AFC East rival and takes an 11-game series winning streak into the Monday night opener at Gillette Stadium. The Bills haven’t defeated the Patriots since Week 1 of the 2003 campaign, and even worse is they haven’t scored more than 17 points in any meeting since that game.

Perhaps the debut of flamboyant wide receiver Terrell Owens can get Buffalo over the hump against New England and set the tone for the team’s first playoff season since 1999.

But as Boston rockers Aerosmith would suggest: Dream On.

Brady, not Owens, will be the center of attention in this one after going down in last year’s opener and missing the remainder of the season following a record-setting 2007. Brady’s reconstructed ACL and MCL have passed all the tests, and he’s still got Randy Moss and Wes Welker as primary targets and another potential home-run threat in Joey Galloway. The Patriots have covered six of last eight games against the AFC.

Buffalo’s defense needs to be better and more consistent, especially against the run. Even with Marcus Stroud up front, the unit gave up 121.6 rushing yards per game and 18 touchdowns, ranking 22nd and tied for 24th in those categories, respectively. The Bills also had only 24 sacks, which prompted the drafting of Aaron Maybin (1a-Penn State) at No. 11 overall. Maybin led the Big Ten in sacks with 12. One matchup to watch closely is right end Aaron Schobel, who missed the last 11 games of last season with a foot injury, against Patriots left tackle Matt Light. After 5-1 start last season, the Bills closed 2-8 and 3-7 ATS.

Offensively, with Marshawn Lynch serving the first of his three-game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy the Bills will turn to Fred Jackson and Xavier Omon for ground work. Lynch topped 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons, while Jackson (571 yards) averaged 4.4 yards on 130 carries in 2008. The Bills are only 2-9-1 ATS in last dozen trips to New England.

New England could also use a three-pronged running game. Laurence Maroney is still considered the starter, but he’s on thin ice and coming off an injury that limited him to a 28-carry year. Fred Taylor, formerly of Jacksonville, wasn’t given a contract to watch from the sideline and will see action. Pats backers have been taking it on the chin at home with 3-8 ATS record since 2007.

DiamondSportsbook.com has New England favored by 11 over the Bills, with a total of 46.5. The UNDER has been good 17 times in last 22 matchups and the Patriots have not covered their last seven home games as favorites of 10 or more points. Here is a look at how either team covers the spread.

Buffalo covers if they attack New England vertically. The Bills didn’t bring in T.O. to run five yard out-routes, they need him to be dynamic presence in pushing the ball downfield. This could open up chances for Lee Evans who also has breakaway speed with big play explosiveness. The New England secondary isn’t exactly rock solid at the moment and if Bills linemen can keep Trent Edwards clean, they will have opportunities. Though Brady looked comfortable in limited action in the preseason, every quarterback who has gone thru major knee surgery, has to be a little nervous with players around their feet, it’s only natural. The best way to bother Brady is with pressure. If the Bills can execute properly they could make this a touchdown or less contest.

New England covers because they have no fear of the Bills and have won last 11 meetings by 22.7 points per game. Coach Bill Belichick will want to have Brady get comfortable right away, with quick throws to Welker and Moss out of the shotgun. This opens up numerous options in the offense and if the Buffalo pass rush is anywhere as anemic as last season, the Pats explode. The Patriots are not 100 percent situated on defense, especially without Richard Seymour, nonetheless that’s better than the Bills offensive setup, who fired offensive coordinator Turk Schonert September 4, 10 days before this game. Sounds like Pats by say 22.

Monday Night Football System - Play On a favorite of 10 or more points. This system is 15-8 ATS, 65.2 percent with the favored team 22-1 straight up.

College and Pro Football Newsweekly contributed to this article.

Are you ready for some NFL football?

A super 4-0 Saturday in college football, let’s see if we can follow up the opening weekend of the NFL with similar results. There are no outstanding ATS systems in the NFL today; however there is a convincing money line play at 28-4 that is not overpriced. The Top Trend is flat dead perfect over the last nine years and Slick Rick’s Free play has arrived. Good Luck

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST underdogs like Cleveland vs. the money line (note- money line not the spread) in non-conference games, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. Over the last decade this system is 28-4, 87.5 percent and the ML is reasonable at -210.

Free Football Trend -2) The previous year’s Super Bowl losers are on 0-9 ATS run, which suggests to Play Against Arizona.

Free Football Pick -3) Slick Rick picked the Packers at -3 the other day and has told me to tell you to not worry about the -4.5.

Guaranteed NFL Plays here at 3Daily Winners.

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NFL Opening Weekend

Thursday was a delicious bacon-wrapped filet appetizer, with the first main course coming Sunday in the NFL. Miami at Atlanta is among the early games that please, as should Jacksonville at Indianapolis, with their new head coach. NFL bettors made Philadelphia into a road favorite at Carolina after starting as underdog. The late afternoon has the NFC Super Bowl representative Arizona hosting division opponent and a team that won the Super Bowl the year prior, New York, is also embroiled in early division dogfight. Enjoy my sports wagering friend.

Miami at Atlanta 1:00E CBS

Miami and Atlanta will try to build on playoff seasons when they open the 2009 campaign in one the two inter-conference games scheduled for Week 1. Miami (11-6, 8-9 ATS) was the league’s biggest surprise in 2008, improving by 10-wins from ‘07. Oddsmakers don’t expect it to continue though, dropping the Dolphins’ regular season wins prop bet to 7.5 this fall. Perhaps that has something to due with the fact that the Fish had the best turnover ratio in the NFL. Head coach Tony Sparano’s team was 3-1 SU, but 0-4 ATS vs. the NFC last year.

Keys to the Game-

Miami’s Ronnie Brown has looked sharp in the preseason and if the Dolphins linemen can make a few creases, Brown could be productive. On defense, Fins coaches have kept LB Joey Porter on the weakside and moved Jason Taylor over to strong side of D-Line. They believe this gives them better combination for pass rush. Cornerback Sean Smith will likely have to go it alone with Michael Jenkins, which could determine Miami’s 1-7-2 ATS record in recent September’s.

Atlanta better run Michael Turner early in the season, since those 376 carries from a year ago are bound to affect him. Last year, Matt Ryan threw less than 10 percent of all pass attempts to tight ends, with Tony Gonzalez that will change as of the first quarter. Look for coach Mike Smith to use zone combinations to hide corners, the weakest part of the Falcons defense. The Birds are 9-2 ATS in season openers.

3DW Power Rating – Atlanta by 5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Atlanta -4, 44

Philadelphia at Carolina 1:00E FOX

Top contenders in the NFC go head-to-head Sunday when Philadelphia visits Carolina. The Panthers opened as one-point favorites, but have been flipped to 2.5-point underdogs at most wagering outlets. Carolina (12-5, 8-7 ATS) is hoping to get off to a fast start and erase the memory of January’s embarrassing playoff loss. They rolled to a 12-4 regular season mark but were beaten 33-13 as a 10-point favorite vs. Arizona in the divisional round.

Philadelphia (11-7-1, 12-7 ATS) also lost to the Cardinals a week later in the NFC title game, but has made several well received changes since in the offseason. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons, and 33-15 ATS in that role under head coach Andy Reid. They have won two straight series, but haven’t visited Carolina since ’03. The Panthers were 5-3 ATS at home in ’08, their first winning mark since ‘02.

Keys to the Game-

Philadelphia’s defense for the first time in years won’t look over and see DC Jim Johnson, who lost battle to cancer. They will have to be strong in the A and B gaps to prevent Carolina running backs from dominating game. The Eagles blitzes could affect Delhomme, who doesn’t handle pressure well on consistent basis, however they must get to him, since DB’s are often on an island. Philly runners will have to soften up vulnerable Panthers run defense. If they don’t, they fall 1-8-1 ATS as road favorites of a field goal or less.

The best way to defeat the Eagles pressure is run the ball right at them. Carolina is certainly capable of this and DeAngelo Williams is great bouncing runs to the outside. Coach John Fox has a defensive quandary; his club must be stout up the gut, yet maintain balance and not let talented Eagles perimeter players expose them. This figures to be close NFC battle, which means Carolina must maintain focus and not turn the ball over. Its bad enough they are 0-6 ATS before playing rival Atlanta.

3DW Power Rating – Carolina by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -2.5, 43.5

Jacksonville at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS

There are seven divisional games scheduled for opening week in the NFL, perhaps none bigger than that in the AFC South between Indianapolis and Jacksonville. The AFC South is expected to be one of the most competitive divisions in football, and both the Colts and Jaguars boast playoff expectations.

This has been a back-and-forth series as well, with road teams owning a 6-4 SU & 7-2-1 ATS record in the last 10 meetings. The last three games have been decided by seven or less points. Ironically, the pointspread for Sunday opened at Colts -7. The Colts were just 3-8 ATS last year as favorites despite winning 12 games. Indy will begin a new era under Jim Caldwell, the former quarterback coach. The Jaguars are hoping to forget ‘08 after losing six of the last seven games, both SU & ATS.

Keys to the Game-

Indianapolis begins the post Tony Dungy-era looking for 10th win in last 11 openers (7-2-1 ATS). Though a new coach means some changes, keeping Manning upright is always the first concern. This is critical year for Joseph Addai, who must come thru or rookie Donald Brown will start taking away his carries. Manning has always been at his best with a good running game. The Colts are only 3-7 ATS in last 10 home games and most expose new Jaguars linemen and punish Garrard.

Jacksonville is going to have to run the ball successfully to stay out of third and long and is starting two rookie offensive tackles against Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. This sets up play-action passing for Garrard and saves his hide. Indy doesn’t have a lot of size in the middle, thus the Jags could wear down the Colts with Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jaguars have also been early money-makers with 8-2 ATS record in Week 1 and they’ll need to change up defenses frequently to cloud Manning’s judgment.

3DW Power Rating – Indianapolis by 7
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Indianapolis -6.5, 44.5

San Francisco at Arizona 4:15E FOX

The defending NFC champs start another run at it on Sunday when they host division-rival San Francisco. Arizona (12-8, 13-7 ATS) was a pleasant postseason surprise, turning a 9-7 regular season mark into a Super Bowl berth. In 2009, the Cardinals will have the target on their backs and be fighting the dogged record of the Super Bowl loser in the follow-up year. One of the main reasons for the success last year was their record in divisional play, 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS.

San Francisco (7-9, 7-8-1 ATS) has dreams of its own in the NFC West after winning five of its final seven games, riding the momentum of head coach Mike Singletary taking over. This has been a very trendy head-to-head series, as the last five games have gone OVER the total, and the road team boasts a 5-3 SU & 8-0 ATS record in the last eight.

Keys to the Game –

This will be a common theme all year for San Francisco, they can’t allow opponent to get off to fast starts since offense isn’t built to overcome big leads. Frank Gore must be moving the chains and Shaun Hill has to be effective in hitting targets and making good reads. Time of possession means everything to the Niners. Kurt Warner isn’t getting younger and mobility is further decreased with bad hip. Try and cover receivers tight and make him hold the ball to create pressure. San Fran is 4-1 ATS as dog in 3.5-10 point range.

Arizona doesn’t figure to have a number of offensive issues as long as they keep LB Patrick Willis relatively blocked. Willis is among the best inside backers in the NFL, thus one-back sets keep him from being as active in opposing teams backfield. Frank Gore has punished the Cards defense; he must be contained and cut off yards after initial contact. The 49ers receivers are mostly possession types except for TE Vernon Davis, who can be home run hitter. He must he watched closely for club that is 6-2 ATS as home chalk.

3DW Power Rating – Arizona by 7
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Arizona -6, 46

Washington at N.Y. Giants 4:15E FOX

The Giants weren’t at their best when it mattered most last year and failed to defend their Super Bowl championship, but they proved too much for the Redskins to handle in a pair of NFC East showdowns. New York (12-5 SU & ATS) outscored Washington 39-14 on the way to sweeping the season series for the second time in three years.

The rivalry renews in Week 1 at the Meadowlands, where the top-seeded Giants lost only once during the regular season (6-2 ATS) but then suffered a divisional round playoff loss to Philadelphia. The Redskins (8-8, 6-8-2 ATS) watched the playoffs from home following an ugly second half that saw them drop six of eight to finish .500, which placed them last in what many experts believe will again be the best division in football.

Keys to the Game-

Quarterback Jason Campbell answered the challenge in the preseason and now has to establish himself as the leader in Redskins locker room. He’ll have to make intelligent decisions in the face of ferocious Giants pass rush and make plays. Clinton Portis is slowing down, but will have to should the load if Washington is to pull the upset. This is perfect game why Albert Haynesworth was showed with cash, he needs to help contain Giants running game for Skins squad that is15-6-1 ATS as NFC East visitor.

When New York has problems with Washington, it usually revolves around failure of pass defense giving up big plays. Contain the Redskins deep ball and make them go long distances by moving the chains. The Giants linemen have to keep Haynesworth from being disruptive force and maintain manageable third down sequences. A healthy Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora should spell trouble for Jim Zorn’s offense and the blue-clad Giants are 8-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

3DW Power Rating – New York by 9
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New York -6.5, 37