Be Smart in Betting NFL Pre-Season

Many professional bettors and those that wager significant amounts of money on NFL football have differing opinions on this topic. There are those that see this as a real opportunity to build up a bankroll, taking advantage of lines they consider weak, especially totals. Others take the opposite approach and are extremely selective or pass all together, with too many variables that come into place which do not give them the advantage they are used to holding. While nobody is right or wrong based on personal taste, there are definitely wise precautions to take and enhance your position and make additional cash.

Never bet just to bet

One of the gentlemen from Las Vegas I spoke to said, “They line up at the windows like salivating dogs, dying to place that first football wager. I sit back and laugh my ass off watchin’ those fools so damn anxious to give away their money.” His point is well taken, the first couple of games are not necessarily the best games to bet on, be selective.

Know coaching tendencies

This is big, since August NFL football is completely different from the regular season. Coach like Tony Dungy of Indianapolis uses this month to prepare team for the regular season, not to win games. He plays it more vanilla than his public persona and the Colts play accordingly with 3-10 ATS record in last 13 outings. No matter whom the coach is; Dallas is another team that doesn’t place much stock in winning and is 16-29-2 ATS as a favorite in the preseason.

Other coaches want to establish a winning atmosphere from day one. Bill Belichick is one such coach and he is 7-0-1 ATS in week 1. Denver, with Mike Shanahan and all the coaches that came before him have wanted to win from the get-go and are 22-6 ATS for that first preseason game. The Broncos don’t mess around either off a loss, being 12-2-1 ATS if they were beaten as a favorite.

First year coaches and those feeling the pressure of poor previous seasons, will turn up the heat on players and demand immediate results to let the players know who is in charge or things have to change in order to have greater success. These head coaches want more of a sense of urgency.

Seek the right spot to find winners

Sal from the Left Coast Connection said this, “You’ll find plenty of gold backing teams winning or losing by 12 or more points. When teams win big, coaches will play nice to keep the players happy and they’re often unmotivated in next game, love to play against those teams. Conversely, a team plays badly, the head coach will become a lunatic and the players will go out and beat the crap out of next opponent just to shut the coach up.” Great example of this last August was Baltimore destroyed Philadelphia 29-3 at home as three-point favorites. The next contest, still playing at home, they were out-rushed 182-75 by the New York Giants and lost 13-12 as field goal favorites.

Look for bad scheduling spots

Last season the Green Bay Packers dismantled Seattle 48-13 on a Saturday in the second week of the preseason. The so-called all important third game is thought to be the dress rehearsal for the regular season, however the Pack had to come back just five days later to play Jacksonville in a nationally televised encounter and were defeated 21-13, as coach Mike McCarthy decided to not play regulars as much and word leaked out. Green Bay went from a 2.5-point favorite to three-point home underdog.

Read various team pages

As opposed to the regular season, when every coach become more tight-lipped then Teller (the guy that doesn’t talk) of Penn and Teller, coaches will openly discuss with the media their plans from game to game and provide information that provides insights to all the teams. Pick your favorite site and read up. One Vegas insider confided, “I wouldn’t bet a nickel unless I knew what the coach was thinking (in the preseason).”

Understand money management

Nobody will get rich betting NFL football this time of year, however serious damage could be done to a bankroll by being foolhardy trying to cash in. Set strict limits on each wager and NEVER deviate. Take your winnings into the regular season to have more to work with, instead of foolishly doubling down on a streak of good luck.

3Daily Winners take Time-Out

The 3Daily Winners crew is heading to Vegas to hit the tables and have a LITTLE FUN. No plays for Sunday for sure, Monday is very possible. Based on Monday night's plans, forget Tuesday, back in the saddle on Wednesday, hopefully with thicker wallets.

Good Luck to all of you.

Free Baseball Selections on Major Roll

You have to admit, this is fun getting Free Plays that are on 18-4 run, including 3-0yesterday. If you liked Friday’s Top System, you will love today’s with 42-5 record. Paul Buck, chief handicapper at 3DW is burning up the base paths and has another Free pick. Top Trends have been hotter than then Bullhead City, AZ and feature Boston. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites like Milwaukee, with a money line of -175 to -250, with a rested bullpen, that has thrown two innings or less in each of the last two games against opponent after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings. This unique system is 42-5, 89.4 percent in last 11 years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Pitcher John Lester and Boston are 14-2 in the second half of the season in his career.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has been smokin’, hitting seven of his last nine MLB plays and is on Minnesota again to scalp the Tribe as his Free Play.

Free Baseball Selections, with Awesome System

Another winning 2-1 day has 3Daily Winners on nice 15-4 run. Today’s Top System is a remarkable 84.4 percent and must be considered. Will the Dodgers bounce back off 2-1 at home to Arizona, read the Top Trend for insight. Paul Buck returns with one his best plays of the day. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like Tampa Bay with a money line of -175 to -250, with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after allowing two runs or less. This awesome system is 60-11, 84.4 percent. The average differential in these games has been +2.7 runs, plus you have to like the fact the Rays are 40-16 at The Trop.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Los Angeles Dodgers are 3-10 after a one run loss.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck has hit four of his last six MLB plays and is on Minnesota to maul Cleveland as his Free Play.

Free Baseball Selections at 3Daily Winners

After yesterday’s perfect 3-0 day, the 3Daily Winners plays are 13-3 since last Saturday. The LLC has another consensus Free play looking for two in a row. The Top Trends keep winning and showcase the big battle out West in the National League. Top System play takes a look at final White Sox and Twins matchup, with 80+ percent play. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like the White Sox with a money line of +100 or higher, starting a pitcher like John Danks who did not walk a hitter in last outing (six innings), with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games. This system perks up bettor’s days being 37-9 record, 80.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Brandon Webb and Arizona are 11-2 in NL West road contests.

Free Baseball Selection -3) After being correct yesterday, five members of the Left Coast Connection have Cardinals as Best Bet, with nobody supporting Atlanta.

2008 Indianapolis Colts Preview

Even off of last year’s stunning playoff loss to San Diego, plenty of excitement abounds the Colts facilities this season. The opening of Lucas Oil Stadium has the town buzzing and Indianapolis did not suffer many casualties to free agency. The Colts ended up allowing the fewest points in the league (16.4 PPG), but the omnipresent pass rush was curtailed when Dwight Freeney went down. The return to health of Freeney and others should have the Colts back on course.

With Peyton Manning, the “other Manning” these days, he’s been freed to work on improving himself and showing the patience he occasionally lacked last season. This situation took a bit of a U-turn when Manning had to have what essentially was emergency surgery on his knee, due to infection, which had suddenly caused him pain in early July. While playing in one of the Colts' final two preseason games remains a possibility, Manning's primary goal is to be fully prepared for the Sept. 7 season and home opener against the Chicago Bears.

Marvin Harrison has looked good thus far in camp, with no noticeable limp and the more familiar explosiveness Colts fans are used to. Manning learned to play without Harrison the second half of the season and no longer needs him as security blanket. Peyton still led an offense that was third in points scored (28.1), fifth in total offense (358.7 YPG) and number one in third down conversion at 49.3 percent. It’s hard to find much fault, as long as Bill Polian and Tony Dungy are in charge.

There is a very good reason why Indianapolis has been as good as they have without a decline. GM Bill Polian and head coach Tony Dungy live in the present, always thinking about the future. The Colts lost G Jake Scott and back-up TE Ben Utecht, yet was able to keep every other player they needed. The offense line, though still strong, was given full attention, with three picks used. Arizona State’s Mike Pollack was chosen first and Remington runner-up, C Steve Justice was chosen in sixth round. Pollack is already showing promise, sharing playing time early in camp with vet Charlie Johnson at right guard for the departed Scott. The Colts M.O. has been to choose versatile linemen who can play more than one position and ultimately excel at one, once they find their niche. Tough Mike Hart of Michigan will compete for carries behind Joe Addai and bring winning attitude to the club. Adding outside linebackers Marcus Howard and Philip Wheeler means more speed from players that look like a good fit for Dungy’s defensive system. The beat goes on in Indy.

2008 Outlook- The expression, “luck is a residue of design” embarks what Indianapolis Colts are all about. GM Polian has carefully crafted a roster in harmony to his and coach Dungy’s preferences. Though the Colts are heavily wagered upon, they have still managed to be 15-10-1 ATS on the road the last three years. Indianapolis has the NFL’s second toughest schedule, yet nothing to fret; they just keep putting up “W’s” and head off all challengers. The Colts at 4-1, is quality wager to win the AFC. Even with the teams in the division improving and rugged slate of games, you either bet Indianapolis to go Over 11 wins at wagering outlets or pass.

Free Baseball Winners at 3Daily Winners

A 2-1Tuesday, with System and Trend plays coming up Winners. Today’s Top System goes right back to Texas, with 79.1 winning percentage. With Atlanta crying “uncle”, the Top Trend assesses their chances against the Redbirds. The Free Play in a consensus selection from the Left Coast Connection. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites with a money line of -150 or more like Texas, a good offensive team scoring 5.2 or more runs a game on the season (AL), after a combined score of 15 runs or more. This system is sultry 57-15, 79.1 percent since 2006 and average winning margin is 2.5 runs per game.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Atlanta is 4-16 with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Six members of the Left Coast Connection have Arizona as Best Bet, with nobody backing San Diego.

Free Baseball Selections from 3Daily Winners

Our Top Trend was yet again a winner for a 1-1 day at 3DW. A new member of the LCC has started well in hitting 75 percent of his plays and he’s focused on Tampa Bay and Toronto matchup as his top selection. The Top Trend is back, with another 100 percent perfect angle, which has won nine of last 10. Today’s Top System is in the American League and is 85.7 Winner the last three seasons. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites, like Texas with money line of -110 or higher, with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher like Carlos Silva (4-12, 5.62 ERA), whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (AL). Since 2006, this has been killer system at 18-3, 85.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Milwaukee is 9-0 OVER when the total is 7.5 or less.

Free Baseball Selection -3) A newer member of the Left Coast Connection has gotten off to a good start with 6-2 record and he has Toronto as his best play tonight. (All Free Plays are 80-37, since this blog started.)

Free Baseball Plays at 3Daily Winners

The L.A. Angels prevented another perfect day, instead settled for just 3-1. (We know that’s good) In the National League, one dominant pitcher tries to extend streak in our Top Trend, while the Free Play in taking place in the Bronx. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) No truly valuable systems going today. Since we started this blog, System plays are 40-23.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Houston’s Roy Oswalt is 19-1 against Cincinnati lifetime.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick is back from the Left Coast Connection and is on the New York Yankees to extend home winning streak to 11 games.

Random Thoughts for a Sunday

Been another hectic week, trying to get everything in place with upcoming football season. Went to Cubs and Arizona game, this past Wednesday, in which Chicago won 10-6. The funniest aspect of the night was when Reed Johnson hit grand slam home run to put the Cubs up 10-3, you would have sworn every D-Backs fan in attendance just was text-messaged their car was on fire in the parking lot. I've never seen so many people leave a sporting event at one time before the game was over. Hilarious.

Yesterday our Top System play had Philadelphia and it is now 30-1. Truth is, it was a function of luck and skill. Cole Hamels and other Phillies pitchers were lit for nine runs in the four inning and Atlanta led 9-3. In the bottom of the fifth, Philly scored seven runs to take a 10-9 lead and hung on to win by that exact score. What's interesting about the final score, is this was the 14th one run road loss (0-14 this season) for the Bravos and they lost 20 in a row dating back to August 10, 2007. That reminds of Seattle Mariners some years ago, who went seven games without back-to-back hits.

This whole Brett Favre thing has become about as interesting at a Britney Spears story. Like I said and I heard Mel Kiper Jr. even say (for what that's worth), Favre reports to camp, declares he wants to compete for job and if he beats out Rodgers fair and square, no beefs and if other teams have injuries to starting QB's in preseason, Green Bay has leverage to make trade. Packers asking (wanting?) for 1st round pick is stupid, no team other than Oakland would be dumb.

Does anyone know what's going on with the Cleveland Indians? One game away from the World Series last October and now are willing to deal almost any player for remastered CD's of Emerson, Lake and Palmer (for those that don't get this, think of commercial that have song "Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends") or Blackfoot!

With the new term- Bucket List- working on one of mine this week, after all these years, going to CrueFest to see Motley Crue. Can't wait.

Free Baseball Plays and more at 3Daily Winners

Those 3-0 days are always a welcome sight at 3Daily Winners, let’s go get some more. Top System takes us over to Oakland and has been right on the money with 79.9 percent Winners. Review today’s top Trend to see if Colorado should sweep Cincy. Kendall goes for three Free Winners in a row, will he do it? Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Texas with a money line of +100 or higher, starting a pitcher like Eric Hurley who gave up one or less earned runs last outing (one run, 5 2/3 innings) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher like Dana Eveland, who has WHIP 2.000 or higher over his last three starts. One again this follows baseball betting logic, If Hurley and the hot-hitting Rangers were really believable, oddsmakers would make them a favorite in this spot. This system is 49-13, 79.9 percent the last five years and Texas is 13-23 against lefties.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Colorado is 16-2 after allowing two runs or less in BB games.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection is in 11-4 run +8.95 units in baseball and is going right back to backing the Los Angeles Angels for a third straight time, expecting the sweep. I’d like to add, I’m playing San Jose +4 in ArenaBowl title game today. The LCC is 9-8 Philadelphia on this game for those interested. Nobody has this as big play.