Top Saturday Selections

It was a welcome sight to see 3-0 day, taking record to 97-65-3, almost back to 60 percent (59.8). Paul Buck continues to clean up and has another Free Play. We’ll go for back to back perfect Trends in afternoon action. The Best System might not be as good as yesterday’s; nevertheless 85.4 percent is pretty damn good. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – The Pittsburgh Penguins broke a streak of home teams winning the deciding game in each of the previous 18 final series that reached a seventh game, including six Game 7's in the Stanley Cup Final, four in the NBA Finals, and eight in the World Series. The last road team to win Game Seven to capture its league championship was the Pittsburgh Pirates, with a 4-1 win at Memorial Stadium in Baltimore in 1979. The last NHL team to do was Montreal in 1971 at Chicago and the Pens are the first team in league history to overcome a two-games-to-none deficit twice in the same playoff year.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON any team like Colorado after five or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (46 to 49 percent). Since 1997, this system checks in at 35-6, 85.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Minnesota Twins are is 10-0 vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse since last season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck was 3-2 yesterday with one of the winners here and tonight he likes the Giants in Bay Area rivalry.

College World Series Wagering Preview

The road to Omaha, Nebraska has been completed for eight college baseball teams. The schools feature traditional powers like LSU, Texas, Cal State Fullerton and Arizona State. But parity has invaded college baseball as well, with Southern Mississippi and Virginia, making first-ever appearances. North Carolina has been a frequent participant in recent years and Arkansas returns for the first time in five seasons. Based on the numbers, six of the eight teams are given legitimate chance to walk away as the kings of the college diamond, meaning this is wide open tournament that could go many different ways. This is not a great spot to bet on first timer, since the last team to make initial trip to Omaha and win the whole tournament was Minnesota, 53 years ago. Here is team-by-team preview, odds by DiamondSportsbook.com.

Arkansas (39-22) Last CWS was 2004 (+1200 to win title)

The Razorbacks started hot, played poorly at the end of the season and got hot again as the postseason began, clinching berth sweeping Florida State on their own field. If Arkansas can start fast, they are capable, with hitters Andy Wilkins, Ben Tschepikow and Chase Leavitt leading the way. The Hogs need big efforts from starters Dallas Keuchel and Brett Eibner to get off to fast start. Arkansas is believed to be the worst team in their bracket, however once they believe, these Hogs are a heap of trouble.

Cal State-Fullerton (47-14) Last CWS was 2007 (+250 to win title)

The Titans are the favorites, making their 16th trip to Omaha and sixth since 2001. CS-Fullerton has four championship banners and is loaded on offense. Cal State-Fullerton has six players hitting .335 or better, led by outfielder Josh Fellhauer who is hitting robust .399. The Titans also feature strong hurlers like All-American candidate Daniel Renken, who was 11-2 record and a 2.36 ERA and freshman Noe Ramirez who is 10-1 with a 2.86 ERA. The bullpen has lots of answers, meaning if a starter fails, they have plenty of ways to close down opponents. This is the most balanced squad in the field with a lot of weapons, playing great baseball right now.

Virginia (48-13) First CWS appearance (+400 to win title)

The Cavaliers might be first timers in the tournament, nonetheless, no doubting the quality and competitiveness they bring. Virginia won the ACC tournament and swept then No.1 Cal-Irvine. After that much excitement, they handed the MLB’s top draft choice, Stephen Strasburg his only loss of the season. Still forced to play on the road, Virginia lost first super regional game at Mississippi, only to come back and take the next two against the Rebels. This confidence boosting trip is the same path Fresno State took last season, on the way to College World Series championship. The Cavaliers hit .327 as a team and have three above average starting pitchers and solid relievers led by Kevin Arico and Tyler Wilson. Dangerous club for certain.

LSU (51-16) Last CWS was 2008 (+375 to win title)

The Tigers won five titles between 1991 and 2000, but have been unable to pick up a sixth since that time. LSU has played the minimum of five games in the tournament and are playing with extreme confidence at this time. Coach Paul Mainieri likes his team’s chances after last year’s experience. The Tigers can score runs with second sacker DJ LeMahieu leading the team in batting average at a .340. Jared Mitchell hits for average (.325), has some pop in the bat and converted almost 80 percent of his 44 steal attempts. Anthony Ranaudo and Louis Coleman will be as good as any two front end starters in the field. Freshman closer Matty Ott has 16 saves and impressive 15-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Has to be one of the favorites.

Arizona State (49-12) Last CWS was 2007 (+350 to win title)

The Sun Devils expected to be here last year, before being upset by eventual champion Fresno State. Arizona State started the season, with one of its youngest teams in years and if pitching wins championships, this ASU club is well-stocked. If San Diego State’s Strasburg is the best pitcher in the college game, than right behind him is Mike Leake. He comes in with 16-1 record and miniscule 1.36 ERA. He’s matched with Josh Spence, who is 9-1 with 2.33 ERA and each pitcher easily averages better than a punch-out per inning. The pen has reliable arms coach Pat Murphy can count on. Arizona State has the lowest earned run average among the field of eight and if the Sun Devils aluminum bats heat up, you never know.

North Carolina (51-16) Last CWS was 2008 (+350 to win title)

The Tar Heels are making their fourth consecutive CWS showing, a first for ACC squad. North Carolina has been doomsday machine in the tourney, winning by better than seven runs per game. UNC doesn’t boast a sensational lineup, being more reliant on a number of players. Irregardless how everyone performs, first baseman Dustin Ackley and his across the diamond counterpart, 3B Kyle Seager have to have big games for Heels to play on. North Carolina has exceptional pitching depth, with Alex White and Adam Warren at the front of the line. Relievers Brian Moran and Colin Bates are two of the best in Omaha and should give offense chance, since they can shutdown opposing offenses. If Ackley and Seager shine, Tar Heels in the chase.

Southern Mississippi (40-24) First CWS appearance (+1400 to win title)

This team makes Cinderella’s story really look a fairy tale. Head coach Corky Palmer announced in April he was retiring and never could have dreamed of all-expense trip with his team to Nebraska. The Golden Eagles are collection of veteran players, who just found a way. USM is nothing special offensively, but with the likes of Bo Davis hitting .372 with 13 long balls, they hustle and manufacture runs. Don’t expect the Golden Eagles to be nervous, they know they were a long shot to even be in CWS, let alone win it. C-USA Pitcher of the Year Todd McInnis is the real thing, however beyond JR Ballinger and relief pitcher Collin Cargill, the kind of pitching depth needed to compete at this level is thin.

Texas (46-14) Last CWS was 2005 (+300 to win title)

No team has been to Omaha as much as the Longhorns, who have made 33 trips. Coach Augie Garrido has won more games than any D-1 baseball head coach and brings one of his more intriguing teams to Rosenblatt Field. No pitching staff has the depth of Texas, which is why the Horns have a shot. Offensively, Texas has the lowest collect batting average in the field at .287, meaning the hitters have to step up or pitchers have to be domineering. Starters Chance Ruffin, Cole Green and Taylor Jungmann are each capable of low run-low hit games and relief pitchers Austin Wood and Austin Dicharry can shut the door. The Longhorns are comfortable playing low scoring games, making them legit threat.

3DW Pick – LSU
Second Pick – Cal State- Fullerton

Friday June 12 at 3Daily Winners

A less than satisfactory 1-2 outcome has me yearning to get back to 60 percent winners over about two months and we’ll start with a system that is one of the best of the season at 95 percent. (It’s true) It’s been a little while since we’ve had a perfect trend, until today. No problems with Paul Buck who continues to shine with 4-0 day and has what could be another winning Free play. Good Luck.

Only seven guys from the Left Coast Connection are betting tonight's Game 7 and five are on Pittsburgh.

What I learned yesterday - Because of all the close games, most of which were decided late, only four starting pitchers recorded a win on Thursday: Aaron Cook, Kevin Millwood, Garrett Olson and Max Scherzer. Over the last nine seasons there's been only one other day on which no more than four starters won when at least 10 games were played. That was Sept. 12, 2006, when only three starters won on a day of 13 games.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are batting .200 or worse over their last three games (Houston), against opponent with a hot starting pitcher, who’s WHIP is 1.000 or less over his last five starts. Does 38-2 work for you to?

Free Baseball Trend -2) San Diego is 0-9 in road games after one or more consecutive Unders this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck is on 28-9 run in all sports and like the team from Motown in the Other Detroit and Pittsburgh matchup.

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NHL bettors expect stars to shine in Game 7

It has been quite a NHL Playoffs, with TV ratings up, interest on the rise for the sport and first Game 7 in three years. While Carolina and Edmonton was exciting in 2006, the argument can be made this is the most anticipated final encounter since Colorado and New Jersey in 2001 or even 1994, when the New York Rangers broke their 54-year drought between Stanley Cups.

This Cup Finals have been all about the chalk, with the home favorite winning each time, as only the last game decided by a single goal. The final score in most cases didn’t tell the story. Five years ago New Jersey and Anaheim played seven games, with the home team winning each contest. That series was still played under the old rules and even insomniacs were nodding off watching that style of play.

Today’s version of hockey is about speed and skill, and each team is loaded with both. Detroit has overcome a number of injuries to get to this point and should be as rejuvenated as they have been in some time, playing before the home folks and working for just the second time in six days.

DiamondSportsbook.com opened Detroit as -170 money line favorites (highest of the series) and the wagering public has bet them up to -190. The Red Wings are 11-1 at Joe Louis Arena in the postseason and have won nine in a row at home. They are 9-2 as -150 to -200 playoff favorites.
Detroit will need the likes of Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg and struggling Marion Hossa to have big games. Zetterburg and particularly Hossa have not been as effective of late. Hossa admitted to ESPN.com reporter Pierre LeBrun he is pressing. Hossa made the controversial choice of leaving Pittsburgh for Detroit in the off-season and could be 0-2 in Cup finals, should the Wings lose. Detroit players like their chances in decisive conflict.

"We're confident going back to our home building and playing in front of our own fans, so it will be a fun game going back for Game 7," Detroit captain Lidstrom said.

Pittsburgh is 6-6 on the Stanley Cup chase road in 2009, with three consecutive defeats in Detroit, totaling two measly goals. The Penguins are 15-6 with two days between games this season. This is the time for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to elevate their games to superstardom. They felt the taste of bitter defeat a year ago and are 60 minutes from hoisting Cup for first time. Neither has scratched the score sheet the last two games, a third would raise more questions than find solutions for a team that is 43-19 after scoring two or less goals.

Like most hockey confrontations, goaltending arrives front and center for such an important contest. Chris Osgood for the Red Wings has the pedigree and the rings. Pittsburgh’s Marc-Andre Fleury has a chance to step into greatness. Most people forget Fleury was the first piece to Penguins revival, being just the third goaltender taken as the first draft choice. He played on some wretched Pittsburgh squads before Crosby and Malkin showed up and is still the biggest question mark coming into Game 7. He’s been brilliant at times in the series, but also less comfortable than a player wearing skates three sizes too big in three losses in Motown.

"You have stuff happening in your head, but you have to just block all the outside, all the negative thoughts and just play the game, keep it simple, have some fun," Fleury said. "To have an opportunity like this to get [the Cup], it's awesome."

The total is listed at its lowest figure of the seven games at Un5.5 (the rest were even or over 5.5) and the previous three contests in Detroit played Under. The Red Wings are 9-3-2 UNDER in last 14 Stanley Cup Finals contests, with Pittsburgh 16-5 UNDER after allowing one goal or less in their previous game this season.

The winner of Game 7 will have untold joy, which will commence at 8:05 Eastern on NBC, with the favorite 13-3 in last 16 meetings between these teams.

MLB Series Wagering - Mets at Yankees

Neither the Mets nor the Yankees return to the Big Apple in the best of moods after suffering series’ losses in what has amounted to rivalry week for both teams. The Mets lost series to Philadelphia, giving them six losses in last nine contests. The Yankees were swept in Boston and are 0-8 against the Red Sox in 2009.

Though players typically try and down play the significance of these types of interleague games, the fact is this is New York and they can’t help being caught up in the maelstrom with rabid fans and media descending on them. Both scuffling clubs will bring positives into the Subway Series, as the Metropolitans (31-27, -0.3 units) are 23-8 in road games when playing on Friday since 2007 and the Yanks are 15-3 at home after batting .240 or worse over a 10-game span.

Livan Hernandez (5-1, 3.88 ERA) has experienced a career renaissance this season, being picked up late by the Mets who needed a fifth starter. Pitching at Citi Field has helped the well-traveled veteran right-hander; however he’s performed above average on the road with 3-1 and serviceable 4.07 ERA. Hernandez has been downright awesome in his last three starts, with a 1.66 earned run average, which included complete game and seven shutout innings, thou both were against woeful Washington. He’s been moved up one day since John Maine was placed on DL Thursday, yet at least still had four days between starts. Hernandez is 18-10 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

The Yankees (34-26, -2.8 units) counter with Joba Chamberlain (3-1, 3.39), who will not have to face dangerous hitters like Carlos Delgado or Jose Reyes, who are both disabled. The Bronx Bombers have been anything but, losing five of last eight games and scoring 4.2 runs per game in the process. The Yanks are 18-11 in their new home and part of Chamberlain’s job will be to keep the ball in the yard. Balls have been flying over the fence at Coors Field pace. Chamberlain has been about average (which is good at the new Yankee Stadium), surrendering a total of seven homers in his 11 games pitched. New York and the big right-hander are 7-1 in last eight starts at Yankee Stadium.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the home-standing team in the pinstripes as -220 money line favorites with total Un10.5. The Yankees have the best record in baseball in interleague play at 124-89 (.582) and are 45-17 as a favorite of -201 or greater. Watch the total on this one, since the Mets are 11-1 OVER on the road after three or more consecutive home games and the Yankees are 13-2 OVER at home after a one run loss.

Game 1 Edge: Yankees

The middle encounter will be a Fox Sports afternoon affair. At this time, the presumed fill-in starter for the Mets will be Fernanado Nieve, who pitched two scoreless innings out of the bullpen this season for the Mets after they called him up from Triple-A Buffalo on June 6. Nieve is a hard throwing righty, who has shown proclivity to hit a lot of bats in his major league stints. Most likely, manager Jerry Manual will have to go to bullpen, which has been an issue for the Yankees who are 2-9 vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better this season. Andy Pettitte (6-2, 4.22) will go the Yankees, who’s not found the new ballpark to his liking. More balls fly out to right field and Pettitte’s ERA is 5.40 at home compared to 2.58 on the road. The Yanks are 29-13 when the veteran lefty is a Game 2 starter and they are 8-2 versus their city rival when he takes the hill.

Game 2 Edge: Yankees

Amazingly, this won’t be the Sunday night game, probably because ESPN didn’t want to cut in on NBA Finals action. The series finale expects to be a good pitching matchup with Johan Santana (8-3, 2.39) battling A.J. Burnett (4-3, 4.89). Both pitchers are coming off less than impressive efforts, with Santana tying a career high in allowing four home runs, yet pitched well enough to pick up the win. Burnett was too amped or too strong, walking five and allowing five runs (three earned) in just 2 2/3 innings, in 7-0 loss at Boston. Day games have favored the Yankees who are 13-9 coming into the series, compared to the Mets 8-11 mark.

Game 3 Edge: Mets

Despite having the best record in interleague action, the Yankees are 19-17 against the Mets since 2003. Don’t see this as being deterrent, as Joe Girardi’s club will want to put Boston series behind them. The key game will be the opener and don’t see New York losing. (OK, I’m doing anything to improve my record, make it the Yankees) With the Bombers favored big in the first two contests, backing both and keeping fingers crossed they deliver a series win.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Mets +200, Yankees -260

3DW Pick: Yankees

2009 Record – 2-6

Back at it on Thursday

Though tired, I’m not poor from Las Vegas experience. When we were last here we posted 2-1 day last Saturday (which seems like a month ago), giving us 93-63-3 mark. Today’s Best System has complete writeup which you can read below and is on 10-1 roll. Top Trend is in the desert. Good Luck.

Thoughts- Las Vegas is just magical, so much to do and see. Craps was OK, nothing great, won a few bucks, never got hot or cold, but did I throw the dice poorly, yikes! Hit a number of sports bets, including six-teamer in baseball, but it was just for $10 as fun bet. Won a little in Black Jack and lost a little in roulette. Saw five guys from the Left Coast Connection (three I had never bet before) and came away very impressed with how good they are as bettors.

Also had a meeting with Las Vegas Sports Consultants, who set the opening odds for many casinos in Nevada. Very impressive place with more coming on this in the months ahead.

Free Baseball System-1) Read article below about O’s.

Free Baseball Trend -2) San Francisco is 9-2 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in road games after seven or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck is on 24-9 run in all sports and kicked by butt in roulette in Vegas. His Best Bet is Texas over Toronto.

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Thursday’s Best System Fits Baltimore

The return of interleague play picks up tomorrow; however before then is the matter of finishing off series within each team’s respective league. The Baltimore Orioles have been grounded since putting together a five-game winning streak at the end of May and have lost eight of last 10 games. The O’s could take a step in the right direction of ending this slump by overcoming Seattle and winning a series.

Baltimore’s troubles are easily traced to lack of hitting, as they have gotten as many as four runs only once in last 10 tries. The Orioles (25-34, -7.2 units) slump has seen them fall to ninth in batting average in the American League and 10th in runs scored. Today they will match up with a former teammate, now pitching for Seattle (29-30, -1.6 units), Garrett Olson.

The 25-year old Olson (0-1, 4.39 ERA) will be returning to Camden Yards for the first time, making his first appearance in another uniform. The left-hander gives up a lot of groundballs, which could be construed as bad luck, but most are hit with velocity and are quasi-line drives, just with a couple of bounces. Though the Orioles are far from pitching-rich, the biggest reason Olson was traded is he never developed an “out-pitch” to keep opposing batters off-balance and finish them off. This will be his fourth start and he has also come out of the bullpen six times this season, as the Mariners seek to find a role for Olson.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Baltimore as a -156 money line favorite, with total of nine. A super situation arises this evening favoring the Birds and it reads this way:

PLAY ON all favorites with money line of -125 to -175, who are below average American League hitting team (BA .265 or less), against an average starting pitcher whose ERA is between 4.70 to 5.70, playing on a Thursday.

What this 84.1 percent system is telling us is if a team is below the norm as hitters, yet can still be this heavy a favorite, they must be in a very good situation. The record of 37-7 dates back to 1997 and in the last five years, this system has clicked off 10 of 11 winners, with average margin of victory 2.6 runs.

It is true, the Orioles are impatient lot, nevertheless, the Mariners are 13-30 (-18.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw three or less walks a game. After completing your afternoon wagers, the O’s might be worth a look in night action.

I'm back and so is Game 4 for NBA Finals

The NBA Playoffs offer so much insight into the teams, coaches and players, one can’t help but be excited about all the strategy changes and maneuvering if you are true basketball fan and wagering on games. Sometimes the boxscore’s paint a picture and other times they don’t, just like Game 3. Would it seem possible Orlando would take nine fewer three-point tries than the Lakers, convert three less than Los Angeles and still come out on top? The high quality adjustment made by Magic coach Stan Van Gundy, having his squad push the ball at every opportunity, before the slow-reacting Lakers defenders reacted, helped Orlando shoot 62.5 percent, yet the Magic had the same number of fast break points as L.A. (10)

This all adds to tremendous intrigue for Game 4. It is the Lakers turn to adjust, having to win one of the next two contests in Central Florida, really placing the pressure on Orlando to win twice on the Left Coast. Oddsmakers in part see Los Angeles making the right moves, as DiamondSportsbook.com has them as 2.5-point underdogs, down from 4.5 in last contest. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and many people can’t foresee them being so off-kilter a second game in a row.

Los Angeles defenders took almost every fake, reacted poorly on defensive rotations, seldom getting a hand in the face of shooter or giving them clear path to the goal, like the Magic had free pass. L.A. shot free throws, well like Dwight Howard used to, converting on 16 of 26. At various points, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher and Andrew Bynum played like some of the Seven Dwarfs (feel free to make this interactive article, by filling in your own matching dwarf with player performance). Kobe Bryant didn’t look like Kobe at crunch time and they will need him to have reversal of fortune quickly or this series will be 2-2.

For Los Angeles to improve on 14-6 ATS record as road underdog of 4.5 or less points, Lakers guards have to do better job feeding the post to Pau Gasol and Odom and they need to be more alert and ready. Hustle back on defense and be ready to defend the entire shot clock time, not just the parts that fit into schedule. Offensively, a more conventional return to triangle offensive, since isolation and top of the key screen and rolls were well defended by Orlando and might have contributed to Bryant appearing so fatigued late in the contest.

Orlando didn’t cover, but won the game. They are well-suited 20-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Magic played at tempo more suitable to players like Rafer Alston and Dwight Howard in Game 3. Alston’s ability to push the ball led to more open shots, (which he made) and Howard’s skill as athlete showed thru, as he also ran the floor and made hard cuts to the hoop.
Hedu Turkoglu was a dominant contributor, even making just one three-pointer, dishing the ball for seven assists, while converting 7 of 12 shots. Mickael Pietrus toasted L.A. for 18 points and played physical with Kobe and the Magic double-teams were better timed, making Bryant less effective.

Game 3’s total was Over and oddsmakers adjusted upward, raising the figure to 201.5. This is potentially swell news for Orlando backers, with the Magic 12-3 ATS at home game when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. Van Gundy’s team needs to set the tempo and they are 12-4 UNDER at Amway Arena after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The Lakers like-wise have to bring aggressiveness shown in four prior games, to first conflict in Orlando and are 13-3 UNDER off a road loss this year, winning by an average of over eight points per contest.

Game 4 will come down to adjustments and execution, though bettors might just want to ride the tide with underdog 7-1 ATS and the OVER 6-0 in Florida when these two clubs meet.