Fun and Frolick on the last day of January

Normally when I look for the best systems and trends, I do some quick research on them, with the idea they make sense and are still winners, not say at 80+ percent, but have a 2-3 record this year or lately. Today I’m taking a rare day off (I’ll still tape games to watch later) and going to watch a little golf at the FBR Open. (Watch on CBS today, I’ll be with the over-served mob on the 16th hole)Thus, I grabbed the best things I could find on short notice.

Off yesterday’s improvement at 2-1, have a rousing system that is 23-3 against the spread in college hoops. Today’s Top Trend is in professional basketball, following the escapades of the lone team from the Great Northwest. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like William and Mary, after two straight losses by 10 points or more, against opponent after four straight games where both teams score 70 points or less. Though the teams are not well known, this system should be at 23-3 ATS, 88.5 percent over the last dozen years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Portland Trailblazers are is 14-2 ATS in home games after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Kendall had a winner last night and is taking Marquette.

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Every last thing you need to know about the Super Bowl 43

I had a very clear understanding of who I thought would win and cover the Super Bowl, what total to take and what props to play. After doing research for this article, I’m more confused about what to do next than Megan from “The Bachelor”.

I started by going to Sportsbook.com to get a feel what the wagering public was thinking and 52-55 percent of the quote-unquote “squares” are on Arizona to cover the spread. Based on recent history, this made sense to me taking the points, especially if the line holds at Pittsburgh -7. Over 60 percent of these same people that place bets at this book like the total to Over, this also made sense to me since the logical conclusion would be the Cardinals and Over and the Steelers and Under.

The money line action has steadily grown towards the Cardinals all week, up to 89 percent of all bets placed was on Arizona. From a value standpoint, this has merit and talking to Doug from 3Daily Winners, he believes many of the same lemmings (my term not his) that cashed on the Giants last year have returned believing the same thing could happen again.

I read where last year was supposed to be the big bonanza, with an estimated 100 million bet on the SB 42. It ended up being a little too optimistic for the perfect storm to occur with the perfect Pats and confident dog Giants, settling at 92M plus. Because of these recessionary times and the less than glamorous Cardinals in the game, this year’s number has been downsized to no more than 85 million and probably less.

Another factor of the decrease of the number is the rebirth of the local guy taking bets. Many bookies went out of business or were cut so severely because of the offshore internet sites that opened up. Once the government snuck in the bill about offshore betting being illegal, this opened up a whole new ball game for these fellas.

Most of the smart ones embraced technology and now have websites set up just like the offshore books and run very much the same way. The beauty for them now is instead of fielding phone calls or sending emails what the current lines are, they just have their “customers” login and view the lines themselves. This has also aided them in their ability to do prop bets for the Super Bowl and take in even more money, as long as they can cover the losses. These guys work less and are making more money then they ever did before. It’s sure is good the government ended up helping those in the United States keep the money here instead of letting in go abroad. (Wink)

To get a feel for what handicappers are thinking about the Big Game, I went to The Spread.com where they always have people posting Free and paid picks. Here the views of who will cover are different from the wagering public. At last count over 60 percent of the cappers were on Pittsburgh, including most of the big names in the business. Having once been in the business myself, I was surprised to see touts giving out a favorite, especially with a touchdown line. They were dead even on the total.

Next I went to every major sports website and read every article they had posted. ESPN.com tends to be more serious, while Fox Sports.com blends in more goofy stories, searching too hard it seems to have that “different angle”. The rest off the sites were somewhere in between. For all the stories on Al Gore’s information highway (You didn’t know he invented the internet and found global warming also?), there was very little I already didn’t know.

I was shocked and dumbfounded to see Brenda Warner (Kurt’s wife), remembering her when she had the spiked-hair which made her look, you know, like a switch-hitter. Now she has that blonde hair and looks sort of hot (especially compared to before). Speaking of hot, what about Big Ben’s either current or possibly former girlfriend? Google her up.

My search for newsworthy trends, angles or what I thought was different info yielded the following.

*Kurt Warner could become the first quarterback to win the Super Bowl with two different teams.

*No Super Bowl team had ever been beaten by more than 21 points twice during the regular season, Arizona was defeated on four occasions in this manner.

*The team with the most sacks has won 12 of last 13 Super Bowls and is 8-3-2 ATS.

*Losing Super Bowl teams that fail to score 21 points are astonishing 0-31 and 3-28 ATS.

*Teams in their first Super Bowl against a team with previous experience (of any kind) are 4-12 and 5-11 ATS.

*The outright winner of the Super Bowl is 34-8 ATS.

*Teams off consecutive upsets are 4-2-1 ATS in the Big Game.

*Pittsburgh is attempting to be the first team to ever have six Super Bowl trophies.
*Teams that win the turnover battle are 30-3 and 27-6 ATS.

*For total players consider the referee. Over the last three years, Terry McCauley’s games have averaged 39.3 points per game, the lowest among all NFL referees.

*Kurt Warner has gone seven years between Super Bowl games, Ben Roethlisberger is try to join Tom Brady as the only quarterback with two rings by age 26.

*Arizona allowed 426 points during the regular season; the previous worst for a Super Bowl team was 360.

*Pittsburgh is 10-0 and 8-2 ATS if they out-rushed their opponent this year and Arizona is 9-0 SU & ATS if they did so.

Made calls down to Tampa area and it resembles Steel City South. As many as 30 or more bars have been designated as Pittsburgh bars. The number for Arizona, well that would be about as many as people who saw there stock portfolio grow in 2008, none.

When I spoke to Doug (who lives in Phoenix area) he told me something I found humorous. The day after the Arizona beat Philadelphia, the different news stations in Phoenix were reporting Cardinals fans were actually going to travel to Tampa even if they didn’t have tickets. Obviously the news people there are dolts and what sounds like a few hundred at most fans from the Grand Canyon State will be outnumbered 30-1 by those in black and gold.

After all this research, my head was spinning and I felt like Paris Hilton at physics convention. (That would be stupid) Decided to go back to my original belief that Pittsburgh played the toughest schedule in the league all season, had few letdowns and for my money was the best team in football since Week 7. I just can’t shake the thought of all those horrific Cardinals losses and maybe it’s all in the past, but like their forever cheap owner Bill Bidwell (Oh do I have stories about him and his father) I find it impossible to believe they will play well enough to win.

Put me down for Steelers 31-20 and I hope I’m right.

These were the thoughts of one Red Wydley.

College Basketball Bettor’s Weekend Preview

How good is Florida, really? That question should start to be answered in their prime time matchup with Tennessee. Having won 18 of first 21 games, the talent is evident and a convincing win in hostile environment might be what bettors need to see, to back the Gators down the stretch. Notre Dame will play their fifth straight ranked team and Pitt is sure to be angry off a loss. Memphis is home trying to extend long C-USA winning streak and UCLA will try to change their luck at home against Stanford, who has had success at Pauley Pavilion. North Carolina and N.C. State used to be the game in the ACC, until Duke came along. The Wolfpack have a huge challenge ahead of them, even at home. On Super Bowl Sunday, a couple of physical Big Ten teams will go at it. Check Bookmaker.com for the last numbers on these contests.


Saturday – January 31

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh 12:00ET, ESPN

Points in the paint - this will be the term that will describe the winner of this Big East matchup. Pittsburgh (18-2, 9-6 ATS) has two space-eaters in Tyrell Biggs and DeJuan Blair, who can fill up a lane all by themselves and they will face Notre Dame’s Luke Harangody and his vast array to shots, heaves and tosses. Last season, the Fighting Irish handled the Panthers 82-70, holding Pittsburgh to 40 percent shooting. The Irish did a great job on the boards outrebounding Pitt by eight and the Panthers didn’t help themselves with 11 for 18 from the free throw line.

Jamie Dixon’s club is steadier this season with Levance Fields back running the point and Sam Young is more than just a jump shooter for team that is 17-7 ATS in January the last two years. The loss to Villanova hurt, however Dixon’s teams have through the years not dwelled on losses.

Notre Dame (12-7, 5-9 ATS) looked like Top 10 material back in Maui in November, however have become stagnant since league play opened and have lost four in a row. The lack of bench means heavy minutes for starters and the defensive prowess of last year has evaporated with teams shooting 43 percent. Coach Mike Brey’s club is 14-5 ATS in road games versus defensive teams with shooting percentage defense of 39 or less percent after 15 or more games on the year.

Houston at Memphis 1:00ET, CBSC

Conference-USA has reclined back into being a nice, lower level league among the heavyweights with Memphis (17-3, 11-7-1 ATS) no longer considered a national championship threat this season. Still it does leave some intriguing confrontations to consider like Houston (12-6, 9-6 ATS) visiting one of the barbeque hubs. The Cougars have found a combination of players that are 10-4 as starters, with ample firepower, averaging over 78 points a game. Scoring is no issue, but coach Tom Penders has to lean on his squad to play more defense as the shoot-outs against the better teams has led to defeats. Houston is 16-6 ATS on the road versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or points a game after 15 or more played.

Memphis has now won 48 straight C-USA contests and it might be getting harder for this year’s opponents to stop the streak. Freshman Tyreke Evans has moved to point guard and the offense is running smoother. Antonio Anderson is more comfortable in his role in the offense and his defense is as asphyxiating as ever. If there is one area the Tigers have fallen visibly, it is in rebounding, not having a big guy like Joey Dorsey to clean out the lane. The oddsmakers’ numbers this season have been more realistic and Memphis is 7-1 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points this season.

Memphis is 15-2 and 10-6-1 ATS as a favorite, winning by 16.9 points per game.


North Carolina at N.C. State 3:30, ABC

North Carolina State (11-7, 8-5-1 ATS) has a problem preparing for in-state rival North Carolina and it is not something easily cured. The Wolfpack has been getting killed on the boards. They have been out-rebounded in four of their last five ACC games and really crushed in last two, by 15 boards in overtime escape against Miami and by 19 in loss at Boston College. In the loss to the Eagles, they gave up 15 offensive rebounds. The Tar Heels have plenty of athletes to climb on the boards, making it imperative the N.C. State to at least create a stalemate on the glass. The Wolfpack is 10-2 and 5-3 ATS at home.

North Carolina (18-2, 9-10 ATS) almost was administered the five finger death punch by Florida State, but survived 80-77 in Tallahassee. The Tar Heels had problems finding open shots in the second half, scoring just nine field goals after the intermission. The drop in intensity allowed the Seminoles to score 33 points off North Carolina turnovers. Expect Tyler Hansbrough to come to play after scoring only eight points, breaking his streak of 55 consecutive games in double digits. The Tar Heels are 9-1 and 6-4 ATS away from Chapel Hill this season.

North Carolina is 8-3 SU and ATS in Raleigh since 1997.


Stanford at UCLA 3:30ET, ABC

Former Duke assistant Johnny Dawkins was patient and waited for the right opportunity to leave the nest and gravitated towards a university that had similar values. The move has paid off thus far with Stanford (13-5, 13-4 ATS) playing good basketball despite the loss of the Lopez twins. Forward Lawrence Hill and guard Anthony Goods have been the bell-cows which Dawkins has leaned on. The win against rival Cal was imperative after losing twice in the State of Washington; however losing to Oregon State at home again raises questions. The Cardinal is 9-1 ATS on the January road this last two years, after losing to USC by a single point as six point underdogs.

It isn’t that UCLA (16-4, 9-10 ATS) is a bad team, their not, they just can be befuddling at times and give uneven efforts. Josh Shipp is a good shooter, but will let poor fundamentals undermine his effectiveness and be streakier than necessary. Darren Collison works hard to set-up teammates and doesn’t look for his shot often enough. One real positive has been Michael Roll settling nicely into his sixth-man role and has scored 10 or more points often since Pac-10 play resumed. The impressive 81-66 win over Cal, showed what UCLA is capable of. The Bruins are 11-1 and 5-6 ATS at Pauley Pavilion this year.

Amazingly, Stanford is 8-3 SU and ATS at UCLA recently.


Florida at Tennessee 9:00ET, ESPN

This is the third of three very demanding tilts for Tennessee (12-7, 7-8-2 ATS) still trying to find defensive identity. The Vols floundered most of the early part of January and the players were recalcitrant to coach Bruce Pearl’s heedings, but changes were made in schemes and the players did some soul-searching among themselves. If there is a quality about Pearl’s teams, they need to resemble him, full of swagger. Tennessee is built around the talents of Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism. They are the starters and finishers for Orange and White, nevertheless the rest of the players have to contribute in the other parts of the game for the Volunteers to be at their best. They are 21-11 ATS as a home favorite or pick, however that record is quickly falling with four home losses in Knoxville this season.

Can a team with a solid a record as Florida at 18-3 (7-7 ATS) still be a mystery? The answer is yes. Much like the polling process in Florida, receiving the tabulations on the Gators has been slow to come by. Results are being formulated by SEC play and contests like this at Knoxville create a greater understanding. Nobody is wondering about Nick Calathes and his abilities and answers the critics. "We don't mind the doubters,” the sophomore point guard said. “We’re just looking to get better every day in practice." Even with last Sunday’s convincing thumping at Vanderbilt; the Gators are 5-3 and 3-4 ATS away from home.

Florida is 3-8 and 4-7 ATS at Tennessee.

Sunday – February 1

Penn State at Michigan State 12:00ET, Big Ten Network

For Super Bowl Sunday, the college basketball action is expectedly light; nonetheless, this should be a Big 10 bruiser. Michigan State (17-3, 9-8 ATS) is well-known for its aggressive nature and dishing out a little mayhem on the hardwood. Goran Suton and Raymar Morgan can play rough under the boards and the Spartans like to bump and grind on the defensive end. What makes them the best club in the Big Ten is shooting ability on the perimeter and exceptional speed, for a team in this conference, with Kalin Lucas running the point. Sparty is 26-9 ATS at home playing good teams (Win Pct. 60% to 80%), after 15 or more games.

Penn State (16-5, 10-4 ATS) is no longer the pushover they have been for the better part of there stay in the Big Ten, with several victories of merit. The Nittany Lions are showing progress on the road also at 3-2 and 4-1 ATS. The team revolves around senior forward Jamelle Cornley, who is there only reliable inside threat and can step out also and knock down jumpers. When other Penn State players make shots, the Lions are dangerous and they will need to be with 0-8 (3-5 ATS) mark at East Lansing.

Count down to Super Bowl Friday Plays

Let’s call yesterday what it was, a dismal 0-2-1 day and move forward. Golden State could be a bad spot as today’s Top Trend shows, visiting the Bayou. The Miami Heat are not in a very good situation either, based on history in today’s best System selection. We welcome back Kendall who has is having a quality week of wagering, as he offers his Best Bet for this evening. Good Luck.

Sorry to be so late, had to finish up Super Bowl articles.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST any team like Miami, off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against division rivals, on Friday nights. Not really sure what the significance of Friday is, but hard to argue with 23-4 ATS, 86.2 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Golden State is 0-11 ATS in road games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls a game this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) A name we haven’t heard in some time is Kendall from the LCC. He’s 9-3 this week in all his bets and just finished 3rd in big poker tournament in Southern California. He’s taking some of his winning and betting the Boston Celtics.

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Going at it hard for Betting Thursday.

An easy winner on yesterday best system play allowed us to finish 2-1 and we have a long winded college basketball system that is 82 percent and perfect this season. Speaking of perfect (no not me, ask my wife), today’s Top Trend is absolutely perfect at 9-0 and we hope is right. (Slight play on words as you will see) The Left Coast Connection free consensus play is available right now. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST a road team average 3-point shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3-point defense which allows 36 percent or more, who happens to be a poor ball handling team (17.5 or more turnovers) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-17.5 turnovers). Do you have all that? With this system 32-7 ATS (4-0 this year), you would want to play against Cal-Northridge and Play On UC-Santa Barbara.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Wright State is 9-0 ATS after three straight games where both teams score 70 points or less this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) The LCC has six bettors on Cal and one on UCLA as top consensus play. Interestingly, six each on Cleveland and Orlando tonight.

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Super Bowl XLIII Props Debate –Part 2

In part one of the 2-part Super Bowl XLIII Scuffle, Doug & Steve reviewed the overall betting lines and team props for Sunday's game. They are back today to conclude the series by looking at some of the Individual Player Props available at Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets. Read on as they deliver analysis on Ben Roethlisberger, Larry Fitzgerald, and many others.

BEN ROETHLISBERGER - TOTAL PASSING YARDS
OVER 230.5 (-115)
UNDER 230.5 (-115)

Steve: OVER. I think Pittsburgh needs Big Ben to come up big here, but an OVER in passing yards for him in no way guarantees success against the spread on Sunday. In fact, six of the last seven losing Super Bowl teams passed for 230 yards or more.
Doug: The Steelers have averaged 10.8 yards per completion and Arizona has surrendered 10.7 YPC. The oddsmakers are saying suggesting 17.5 completions for Big Ben, which is well Under this listed total doing the math.

BEN ROETHLISBERGER - TOTAL COMPLETIONS
OVER 17.5 (-115)
UNDER 17.5 (-115)

Doug: OVER. On the season, Pittsburgh has averaged 19 completions and should make that number again.
Steve: UNDER. Roethlisberger surpassed the 17-completion mark just five times during the 18-game season. His completion percentage of 59.9% doesn’t warrant it either.

To read the rest of this article, click here.

Wagering beyond the stars in Cavs and Magic

Is it just yours truly or does it seem like there has interesting NBA games to watch this year? Maybe it was because we all had become so used to San Antonio, Dallas. Miami and Detroit for years, they were the one’s always on. Today at least the variety appears better, with more teams actually competing with a legitimate chance to represent their conference as champions come playoff time. Two such teams meet tonight approximately 90 miles from the site of the Super Bowl and should be a heck of battle.

Two of the biggest stars in the NBA stratosphere are LeBron James and Dwight Howard and they will collide tonight, however, each has proven like many before them, they can’t do it alone and now have other talented players rotating in their respective solar systems.

Cleveland (35-8, 29-14 ATS) has managed to survive two key injuries thanks to the depth they have on the roster. Cavaliers center Zydrunas Ilgauskas has been recovering from a sprained left ankle and chipped bone and internet rumors have him returning tonight, though team reports are still suggesting he has soreness and couple more days would help. Fortunately, his backup Anderson Varejao has put up virtually the same numbers and the Cavs haven’t been hurt to bad.

Delonte West has been out with a fractured wrist, which seems to have motivated Mo Williams even more, who scored a career high 43 points two nights ago and just missed a triple double, adding 11 assists and eight rebounds in 117-110 win over Sacramento. In fact in that game an extremely rare occurrence happened. Williams and James each had a minimum of at least 23 points, eight rebounds and 11 assists. That is the first time that teammates has such numbers since Dec. 23, 1971, when Butch Beard (30 points, eight rebounds and 11 assists) and John Johnson (24 points, nine rebounds and 12 assists) did it for the Cavs at Atlanta. You can put Cleveland down for 9-1 ATS record after scoring 110 points or more this season.

Orlando (34-10, 30-14 ATS) could hardly be called one dimensional, even with Howard having another monster season. The Magic are the league’s top three-point shooting team, connecting on 40.2 percent from beyond the arc. Four regulars shoot at least 41.0 percent. Sharp shooter Rashard Lewis has the most treys in the NBA and Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu can also drain long bombs. Orlando’s ability to make deep shots opens up the lane area for Howard to work and if teams want to sag or double-team him in the post, he can just kick out pass to open shooter.

Orlando lit up Indiana 135-111 and they are 7-0 ATS after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game this season. This prompted Indiana’s Danny Granger to call Orlando “the best team in the East.”

The oddsmakers at Bookmaker.com also like Orlando, making them a four-point home favorite with a total of 197. The Magic are 17-4 and 13-8 ATS at the Amway Arena and are 10-1 ATS when playing only their second game in five days. Cleveland has won four in a row and has been alternating spread wins and losses for last eight games and is coming off non-cover. The Cavs are 11-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.

Over the last three seasons, Orlando is 5-2 and 6-1 ATS in their meetings, with five of seven playing Under the total. The latter instances could happen again with the Cavaliers 9-1 UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game and the Magic 12-3 UNDER after allowing 100 points or more two straight games.

TNT is the televised provider starting at 8 Eastern.

Making the most of wagering on a Wednesday

Our luck ran out as two of the three favorites chosen lost outright and we’ll try to get back on the winning beam immediately. The Top Trend was yesterday’s only winner and a hot angle has been spotted in the Atlantic 10 which has been correct 81.8 percent of the time. New systems are arriving in the NBA, now that we have reached the halfway point of the year and we start with one that is 23-5 against the spread since 2005. Plus, today's Free Play is consensus on N0.1 vs. No.6 in college basketball. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST underdogs like Washington in a game involving two average offensive teams averaging 92-98 points per game after 42 or more contests, after they have allowed 100 points or more five straight games. This NBA system is 23-5 ATS, 82.1 percent over the last five years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Temple Owls are 18-4 ATS against A-10 opponents over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) We have a 9-2 Left Coast Connection Consensus play on Wake Forest.

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Duke visits Wake Forest in ACC Affair

All season long the Big East has been the big bully of the Top 25, having as many as nine teams earlier this season. Because they have taken turns beating each other up, the number has dwindled. A few weeks ago coach Mike Krzyzewski stood up and complained (whined) that the ACC was being overlooked and it was his conference that was the best in the land. Having had three No.1’s compared to the Big East’s one, Coach K certainly has a point at least about the strength at the top of either conference and tonight his club will have chance to prove they are the best team in the country against No.6 Wake Forest.

Duke ascended to the top spot in the country, after Wake Forest (16-1, 8-5 ATS) suffered it first loss of the season, losing to Virginia Tech at home 78-71 as 13-point favorites. It the first time this season, Wake Forest allowed an opponent to shoot 50.0 percent, and also had one of its worst offensive performances while shooting only 43.1 percent.

“We’re going to find out about our guys a little bit,” Demon Deacons coach Dino Gaudio said. “There’s tough kids in that locker room. There’s no doubt in my mind that they’ll bow their necks … and go back to work.” Wake Forest is 20-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

There are tough kids over in the Duke (18-1, 10-7-1 ATS) locker room also, since not bringing best game in only loss to Michigan. The Blue Devils have reeled off 10 straight wins (5-3-1 ATS), winning by an average of 22.8 points per game. They mauled Maryland 85-44, administrating worse ever defeat to the Terps in series history. The Blue Devils are 7-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season. With Duke No.1, they became part of history, being the third team from one state to be ranked number one in the same season.

“It’s a big deal for us because it means we’re playing really well,” coach Krzyzewski said. “We talked about it last week that, just don’t worry about anything, let’s just play. It’s the same thing we’re going to tell them going into this next week. … It’s an honor and it says you’re playing real well. You don’t get anything from it except a really big headline when you lose.”

Wake Forest will look to use its length and considerable athleticism to slow down Duke. The frontline of James Johnson, Al-Farouq Aminu and Chas McFarland presents difficulties for any team. As the Hokies proved, what you have to do is get them in space and attack the rim, as recovery team defense looked to be an issue, which was masked in a couple previous wins. The offense is multidimensional, however is dependent on guard Jeff Teague getting things started. The sophomore has scored 20 or more points nine times, including five in a row. All the big people are excellent passes and when they are clicking, the Demon Deacons are a load. Wake is 10-2 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game.

Part of what makes Duke so tough is they have so many answers. Most nights Kyle Singler and Gerald Henderson can carry the scoring burden. Other times Jon Scheyer and point guard Nolan Smith have come up big and the bench has added more of late. Though Coach K has had tremendous success going with smaller lineup this month, this is exactly the type of game center Brian Zoubek has to be a factor. After a fast start, Zoubek has slowed down in effectiveness. With the height Wake Forest has, he must be a factor. The Dukies are 9-2 ATS after allowing less than 50 points.

Bookmaker.com has the Blue Devils as one-point favorites with a total of 149. Wake Forest is 8-1 ATS vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points a game and is 6-1 OVER off a loss. Duke is 12-6 UNDER in all games, including 10-3 UNDER after playing two consecutive games as favorite.

Wake Forest has won four of its last five home games (3-2 ATS) against the Blue Devils, but the loss came when the Blue Devils were No. 1, an 82-64 defeat on Jan. 8, 2006. This ACC affair starts at 7 Eastern, with the home team 13-3 ATS in last 16 meetings.

Super Bowl XLIII Props Debate

The “Super Bowl Scuffle” has become as big of a tradition as parties, commercials, and gambling when it comes to Super Bowl Sunday. Well, not really, but readers do seem to like it and this piece has been picked up more each year by different websites and publications. This year will mark the fourth edition of the Super Bowl Scuffle, in which Steve Makinen and Doug Upstone debate the wide array of betting options available on Sunday. So sit back and enjoy. Perhaps the guys can help you uncover a golden nugget buried underneath the excessive options and vigorish.

The various props and odds have been taken from Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets. All odds are considered (-110) unless noted.

Moderator: Hello everybody, and welcome back to another edition of the Super Bowl Scuffle, the fourth edition of the popular props debate between Steve Makinen and Doug Upstone. Steve performs a variety of services for StatFox, writing, editing and Managing Editor for other publications. Doug is the lead writer for StatFox.com and is an experienced sports handicapper. So, without further ado, I welcome in our distinguished contributors. Good day guys, hope you’re both getting ready for the big game!

Steve: Hey everyone, hello Douglas, my man, I trust your local Scottsdale stores are keeping the shelves stocked with Arizona Super Bowl gear (and sunscreen)? Up here in frigid Wisconsin I’m just happy I took the plunge and got myself a new snowthrower. Trust me; it’s been put to good use. Nothing breaks the winter up better than Super Bowl Sunday though. I am pumped and ready to roll…I’m sure you’re suffering from Scarlet Fever, so I hope you can take an unbiased look at this year’s game.

Doug: Steve, it has been hotter than a "cougar convention" at one of the local Scottsdale beverage establishments. While you poor folks in the Midwest and East have suffered with bitterly cold temperatures, we have people here complaining it's too hot already, with temps 75-80 for weeks. Things have really heated up with the Bird Fever. While much of the country suffered the affects of a recession, being in the Arizona Cardinals jersey and t-shirts business takes away any feelings of a bad economy.

Moderator: Wow, yes, it’s easy to forget that Doug resides in Cardinal Country. We trust Doug will put aside any personal feeling he harbors in the pursuit of gambling happiness on Super Bowl Sunday. So let’s get to it, I’ll list the props, you guys simply tell which option you prefer and why. Best of luck to both of you.

GAME POINTSPREAD
PITTSBURGH -7
ARIZONA +7

Doug: I believe this was a very astute line by the oddsmakers. I can see Arizona leading into the second half, before Pittsburgh starts to rattle Kurt Warner and slow down the Cardinals offense. Though I can see Pittsburgh covering, I’ll say Arizona needs two scores, kicks the field goal to trail by six and doesn’t recover onside kick to lose.

Steve: Pittsburgh’s shortcomings offensively, and the fact that the better seeds have covered only one Super Bowl in the last 13 years has me leaning toward underdog Arizona here.

To read the rest of this article, click here.

Jim Kruger Studies College Basketball Futures

Growing up, my brother and I would watch the Tonight Show starring Johnny Carson. One of our favorite guests was Criswell, a strange sounding character who predicted the future. Carson would have him on in December to tell his viewing audience what bizarre things were going to happen in the coming year. Being little kids, we believed Criswell and were sure his predictions would come true.

Little did we know that Criswell was a bit off-kilter and being extremely odd was what had made him famous. You may recall him acting in probably the worst movie of all time, “Plan 9 from Outer Space”. It is so bad it actually is entertaining.

To his credit, Criswell did announce several months before President John F. Kennedy was assassinated that JFK would not run for re-election because of something that would happen to him in November, 1963. And, while he also predicted years in advance the election of then actor Ronald Reagan as Governor of California, the prediction I remember the most on Carson was that blind cockroaches would be found on the west coast. I was amazed by that and for the next year asked my mother every week if she had heard about any new important discoveries concerning cockroaches.

In a basic sense, betting on sports is predicting the future. You are trying to make money by predicting the outcome of an event, or even something pertaining to an entire season, a true futures bet. Not only can you bet on who is going to win a national championship, but even who will win a division or conference. Many sportsbooks have futures wagers on who will win the home run race, the Cy Young Award, MVP, etc.

A friend of mine showed me a futures ticket he had for Arizona to win the Super Bowl. After Arizona beat Atlanta, he placed a $600 wager to win 18 dimes, 30 to 1 odds, on the Cards being crowned the next world champions.

I love to bet season wins in sports and do so every year with quite a very good success rate. Since I am already tying up a chunk of change for an entire season on my season wins bets, I normally don’t make many futures wagers, also. However, after my friend Dan showed me that ticket, I have changed my attitude.

When you consider that a recent spat of unlikely candidates have won league and even national championships, such as Tampa Bay in Major League Baseball last year or the Boston Celtics, which started out last spring with 125 to 1 odds to win it all in the NBA, why not devote more time in looking for potential winners other than your early favorites. Since there is no time like the present, let’s start by looking at candidates to win the 2009 College Basketball Championship.

To start this selection process, I wanted to see what type of numbers in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency teams that had been very successful in the tournament the past five years. Instead of just taking the teams who had made it to the Final Four, I added the Elite Eight teams into the data sample also. Games involving Elite Eight teams can sometimes go either way as the competition is so keen and the skill set of each team is so good. I did not include Sweet 16 teams as there is a higher chance of luck for a team to make it that far as compared to getting to the Elite Eight. Sometimes higher-seeded teams get upset and help clear a path to the Sweet 16 for some squads that truly don’t meet up to the standards of a team deserving to make it to the final eight.

Besides offensive efficiency, the number of points scored per 100 offensive possessions, and defensive efficiency, the number a team allows, I calculated the difference between the two by subtracting the DE from the OE. I marked the lowest rating of each category from the teams who had made it to the Final Four over the past five years. From this year’s current ratings, I listed any team who was equal or better than those minimum rating for OE, DE, and the difference between OE and DE. The minimum I used for each category was the following:
Category:

Minimum RatingOffensive Efficiency: 109.9

Defensive Efficiency: 90.0

Difference OE vs. DE: 20.0

Under this year’s rankings, there were 52 teams that qualified under offensive efficiency, 28 had low enough defensive efficiency numbers, and 36 had a good enough differential between OE and DE to make the list.

The next step was to see what teams made all three lists. Many teams were on two of the qualifying lists but not all three. The biggest downfall for most teams was their failure to have a good enough DE rating. Baylor had the fourth best offense at the time of this article but was only 86th in defense. Notre Dame was #6 offensively but even worse than Baylor in DE, # 166.
A few squads made the cut on defense but fell miserably short offensively. Southern California was the fifteenth best defense but only #77 on offense. Washington State was #12 on DE but a mediocre #146 on OE.

There were sixteen teams that made the minimum requirements in all three categories. These are my potential Final Four teams. From this pool, I will select what teams to place bets to win it all. They are in order by their differential rating. I also included the odds as listed by sportsbook.com to win it all. Futures odds vary greatly. At the Stations Casinos in Vegas, posted on their intranet betting service for Nevada residents, they have North Carolina at 5 to 6, Wake Forest at 7 to 1, and a huge difference with Gonzaga at 6 to 1.

Rank, Team, Differential, Odds

1. Duke: 34.35 (7 to 1)

2. North Carolina: 33.86 (2.25 to 1)

3. Pittsburgh: 31.63 (7 to 1)

4. Missouri: 30.06 (100 to 1)

5. Gonzaga: 30 (30 to 1)

6. Arizona St.: 29.54 (35 to 1)

7. Connecticut: 29.27 (6 to 1)

8. Georgetown: 28.51 (50 to 1)

9. West Virginia: 28.4 (100 to 1)

10. Wake Forest: 25.8 (14 to 1)

11. Illinois: 24.42 (50 to 1)

12. Xavier: 24.23 (80 to 1)

13. Washington: 23.59 (50 to 1)

14. Kentucky: 22.93 (40 to 1)

15. Utah: 21.84 (250 to 1)

16. Villanova: 21.45 (100 to 1)

There are five Big East representatives, three from the ACC, two are Pac-10 squads, and six teams representing six different conferences.

What was surprising was that so few of Southeastern Schools showed up in the cream of the crop in any of the categories. Outside of Kentucky, Tennessee and Florida were on the OE and the Differential lists but failed to have a good enough DE number. With Florida standing at #76 defensively and Tennessee even lower at #104, the chances are very slim they will qualify defensively.

Four teams, three from the Big 12, are already on two of the three lists and are very close to having good enough marks on all three to qualify for making the potential Final Four group. Kansas is the closest needing only .03 of an improvement defensively. Oklahoma needs to improve their defense by 1.50 to join the FF qualifiers. Needing better offensive numbers are Texas, 2.17 points short, and Memphis, only 1.51 lacking.

Next week I will unveil my futures bets and discuss the different teams chances of being the next national champ.

Oh, and you might make a note of this on your calendar. Shortly before his death in 1982, Criswell predicted the end of the world would happen on the Winter Solstice in the year 2012. Of course he did not clarify whether he was predicting that would happen on the Winter Solstice for the Northern Hemisphere, which happens in late December, or for the Southern Hemisphere, which rolls around in late June. Maybe the end of the world will happen in two stages with only a half going first and the second half following suit six months later. Maybe by then, we will have found those blind cockroaches.

Jim Kruger is from Vegas Sports Authority and also writes for StatFox.com.

NHL Quick Starts or Fast Failures

The second half of the NHL season commences and questions surround many teams. All the players know it is time to get serious and start building to the end season and either secure playoff positions or improve them to each teams liking. Hockey bettors are seeking angles of value to be placed in the right spot in order to capitalize on opportunity. Here is a look at various teams and what might happen short term, based on numerous factors.

In the Western Conference, the races are much tighter, with the difference between the fifth slot and 13th just 10 points. Phoenix holds the fifth position at present. They will call upon coach Wayne Gretzky for leadership. The franchise is in financial turmoil, with team owner Jerry Moyes having his own money challenges and the team reportedly losing 30 million a year. With the Coyotes having a realistic shot at first playoffs since 2002, the distractions outside the rink could undermine was has been a surprising season.

Edmonton is next in line in the West and was 7-3 before the All-Star break and would like to continue momentum starting with four home games before packing for the road seven of the next eight. Vancouver slid terribly before the break with 2-8 money line record and coach Alain Vigneault is feeling his seat being set to simmer unless the Canucks start playing well again. Like the Oilers, the four home games have to be taken advantage of, as seven of following eight will be away.

Minnesota is currently ninth in the West and many hockey pundits like the fact they have allowed the fewest goals in the conference and manage to overlook they are tied with Los Angeles for next to last in goals scored. The Wild is only 13-12 on home ice and better take advantage of 8 of 11 in their own rink to start second half. Columbus is right with Minnesota and has played significantly better at home with 13-8 mark and opens with seven of eight in Nationwide Arena.

Dallas also is getting calls to climb back in based on history and experience. Most hockey experts can’t see goalie Marty Turco playing any worse (dismal .885 save percentage) and if he returns just too normal, let alone getting hot, the Stars could sneak in.

In the East, Pittsburgh is in 10th slot and a long way away from last spring’s Stanley Cup finals. Yes, there has been a ton of injuries the Penguins, however they have played more like they have been in denial they didn’t win the Cup last season. Whatever the reasons, WAY too much talent not to make the playoffs.

Florida starts one point behind Carolina for final position in the Eastern Conference and will play nine of 13 in south Florida and will have to do better .500 at home ice.

Buffalo has moved up with 7-3 run and is playing more team hockey. If the Sabres can keep playing with the same togetherness, they could catch Philadelphia, who starts the second half with five of six in road uniforms, though Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Atlanta are all very winnable road encounters.

Montreal might be shopping for veteran net-minder and are assigned nine of 13 games away from home to commence second half.

New Jersey was an afterthought after losing goaltender extraordinaire Martin Brodeur, somehow they managed to keep playing Devils hockey and Scott Clemmensen has been very solid between the pipes with 19-10 record. New Jersey won seven of 10 before the All-Star game to take over first place in the Atlantic and is just two points out of second place in the East behind Washington, plus rumors are circulating Brodeur could be back in five to six weeks. Watch the Devils; they could be turning up the heat.

Betting Action for January 27

Slick Rick is nailing winners one after the other and helped us to a 2-1 day. His next play is available now. On the topic of winners, another is very possible with this today’s Best System on a televised college basketball contest, which is 81 percent, with a trio of covers this season. Though are perfect trend didn’t fire yesterday, we’ll bring another back in the NBA. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Kentucky, after going under the total by more than 18 points in two consecutive games and have a winning percentage of 60 to 80 percent, playing a team with a winning record like Mississippi. The reasoning is teams that have fallen that far below the total are due for a bust out on offense and are 34-8 ATS, 81 percent, including 3-0 this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Orlando Magic is 11-0 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Slick Rick of the Left Coast Connection has another winner here yesterday and was 2-0 overall, taking his all-sports record to 24-8, 75 percent in his last 32 wagers. His next Best Bet is on Baylor to end Texas dominance.

Breakdown of Super Bowl XLIII Point Spread

This year’s Super Bowl might not have all the snazzy names from a year ago New England and the New York Giants provided, but this matchup have more intriguing stories than Pittsburgh has rivers and just slightly less restaurants and nightclubs Scottsdale has to visit. Start with Arizona having not won a playoff since 1947, twice removed from the south side of Chicago to present location. While Cardinals and players have been spouting nobody believed in them, what was the basis of any history to do so? Speaking of history, Pittsburgh’s NFL history before drafting Mean Joe Greene and Terry Bradshaw in 1969 and 1970 respectively was of similar failure to the Cardinals. Pittsburgh was on the ground floor of the NFL’s emergence in 1933 and made the post season once before 1972 (ironically 1947) when their run as on the most decorated AFC champion began.

Other storylines include Bill Cowher stepping down as coach and Arizona’s head man Ken Whisenhunt, a Steelers assistant and Russ Grimm (formerly Pittsburgh assistant, now with the Cardinals) were finalists for the job before the Pittsburgh organization went out an hired a relative unknown in Mike Tomlin.

Between now and the start of the game you will have more useless knowledge about players, coaches and teams in the Big Game than a youngster has about each of the Jonas Brothers, nonetheless we’ll try a different approach.

Arizona Running Game vs Pittsburgh Front Seven

After beating a sickly St. Louis squad 34-13 on Nov.2, running the 33 times for 177 yards, Arizona won the NFC West a couple weeks later and lost their way in the process. Over the next seven contests, the Redbirds averaged 16 carries per game. Granted, in several games they fell behind early and were forced to throw the ball to try to score more quickly and abandoned the run. Nevertheless, every game started a 0-0 and even when Arizona trailed 7-0 or even 14-0 in some of those losses, they were all too happy to chuck the run and pass the ball three times for too frequent three and outs. Though the season finale could hardly be described as an awakening, the reinsertion of a fresh and frustrated Edgerrin James yielded a 100+ yard rushing game for the first time in eight tries and set the table for offensive coordinator Todd Haley to rethink playoff strategy. Since their first offensive possession of the postseason, it is obvious “The Edge” is back and the offensive line has improved dramatically, relishing the challenge. Most of the running plays are now one cut and go and though the Arizona linemen are not dominating, there are holes to run thru. One aspect not discussed about the Cards linemen and how they have improved, not one starter has missed a game, which led to chemistry and communication improvements.

The Steelers led the league in total defense and points allowed and were second against the run in surrendering 3.3 yards per carry. The setup is simple, the linemen clog gaps and the linebackers swoop in and make tackles. If Pittsburgh can make Arizona one-dimensional, they can dictate the tempo and come after Kurt Warner with less fear of having to worry about running game. This will be as important an issue as any in the Super Bowl.

Spread Differential – Pittsburgh -3

Kurt Warner vs Pittsburgh Secondary

It’s not often a quarterback goes seven years between Super Bowl assignments (John Elway went eight), but Kurt Warner has rewarded the coaches faith in him naming him starter in August. Though the Hall of Fame talk seems premature, no doubting the wisdom and toughness Warner has acquired over what has become a long career. Like most veteran signal callers, Warner has seen it all. As I had mentioned several times this season, given time, the Northern Iowa product is still a top five quarterback. He read every Philadelphia blitz correctly and threw the ball with precision into vacated area. Look for Arizona to go to third receiver Steve Breaston more in this game, since the Pitt defenders beyond Ike Taylor are not great individual defenders. Running back Tim Hightower can also be highly effective for Warner, when they push the Steelers secondary deep with their receivers and force Troy Polamalu into coverage, instead of hanging around the line of scrimmage. How Pittsburgh thwarts the Cardinals passing game is with pressure. Television types are talking about how Warner will pick apart Steelers if they blitz too much, of course the very same talking heads said the Philly blitzes would shutdown Cards passing game. Linebacker James Harrison, DE Brett Keisel and LB Lamar Woodley hold the key. Harrison and Keisel are on the back side of Warner and get to him with speed and quickness and knock the ball loose. Woodley is important as he brings in-the-face pressure on Warner and the Steelers defense is the absolute best in having defenders in passing lanes. Expect DC Dick LeBeau to stay in base defense early to see if rushers can get to Warner and turn up the heat as needed.

Spread Differential - None

Pittsburgh Running Game vs Arizona Front Seven

The second most important part of the Super Bowl will be how these two units matchup. After Minnesota and New England combined to rush for 422 yards against Arizona, defensive coordinator Clancy Pendegrast simplified schemes in front, having more gap control. This put players like Darnell Dockett in better positions to make plays at the line of scrimmage and get better penetration on wide plays to his side. The Pittsburgh offensive line is nothing special, just above average. They are helped tremendously by having a healthy Willie Parker, who doesn’t need much of a hole and can out-run defenders if he can just run to daylight. Though the Steelers did almost nothing against Baltimore running the ball (who does?), Arizona is not nearly as stout and guards Chris Kemoeatu and Darnell Stapleton might have chances to get Parker to second level, where he can deadly. As opposed to the other teams the Cardinals defense has faced in the postseason, Pittsburgh won’t give up on the run.

Spread Differential – Pittsburgh -1

Ben Roethlisberger vs Arizona Secondary

Ben Roethlisberger hangs on to the ball too long and takes too many sacks, yawn, yawn, yawn, tell me something new. When Big Ben is healthy he is slipperier than an eel to take down and finds ways to make plays. Because of his size, he’s an inviting target for defenses to take shots at and defensive coordinators tell there players all week to wrap up Roethlisberger, otherwise he’ll make big plays to win. Guess which one happens more often? Santonio Holmes has been a very good compliment to Hines Ward. The former Georgia product demands coverage help, allowing the speedy Holmes more room to roam. The Arizona secondary won’t be listed among the best in football. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a special talent and Cards coaches had to get him on the field. DRC (that’s insider talk in Phoenix) will still make overaggressive mistakes like any rookie corner and Big Ben will test him. Look for OC Bruce Arians to test Roderick Hood early and often. The best way to exploit Hood is with three receiver sets, making former corner and now safety Antrel Rolle guard somebody else one and one, placing Hood on more of an island. With all this going on, tight end Heath Miller becomes another weapon in Pittsburgh’s arsenal, of which the Cardinals secondary can not lose sight of. The best way to contain Roethlisberger is off the edge, make him step up in the pocket with no escape route. He’s at his best going to his right in open spaces to see the whole field and has the patience to let a receiver run to open area and deliver strike. The Arizona defenders have to keep Big Ben in a U-shaped cup to curtail his effectiveness.

Spread Differential – Pittsburgh -3

Special Teams

Not much to choose from here as both teams are rather undistinguished. In terms of kicks that could be difference makers, Neil Rackers is 8 for 11 beyond 40 yards for the entire season and one of four past 50 or more yards. Jeff Reed has had much tougher conditions to kick in playing half his games in Heinz Field, yet he is 11 for 15 at 40+ yards. Both have average to below return games on kickoffs and punt returns, though game-breakers are returning kicks. Arizona on average has allowed six more yards per return on kickoffs, though this doesn’t seem to be a significant factor. Looking at the numbers, one could surmise neither team places a great deal of emphasis on special teams and they just presume the players on the field to do what is expected of them.

Spread Differential -None

Coaching

This is a rare matchup of coaches in a Super Bowl game. Beyond the two coaches having to spruce up resumes and work on interviewing skills when the Pittsburgh job opened up two years ago, we don’t know much about either one in such a huge moment, even with a Google search. Not since the 2001 Super Bowl, when Brian Billick and Jim Fassel were on the sidelines for Baltimore and the New York Giants, have we had two coaches without deep backgrounds as head coaches. Both coaches have tough-guy mentalities, with reasonable accountability of their players and they don’t stick with one train of thought to just be stubborn and inflexible. Ken Whisenhunt made the call that Kurt Warner was going to give his team the best chance to win and when Edgerrin James was not producing, did not hesitate to go to Tim Hightower. When it was shown the rookie was not ready for every down duty, Whisenhunt went back to James and praised him for be a professional when relegated to the bench.

Mike Tomlin last season ran a ruthless preseason, establishing himself as the head coach and made the players realize Bill Cowher was indeed gone. Tomlin simplified elements of the Pittsburgh offense and defense, yet never strayed far from the strengths of his squad. If any franchise embodies the fundamentals of professional football, it is Pittsburgh, with blocking and tackling at the core.

Both coaches have proven to be secure in their positions hiring top notch assistants, who could go on to heading coaching jobs one day themselves. With two weeks to prepare, both should have strong game plans designed to negate the other and tricks plays will be used. What we don’t know based on their inexperience on the game’s biggest stage, is how they will react under pressure for certain calls and adjustments to be made.

Spread Differential -None

Intangibles

Unless you were among the few thousands that trudged to Tempe, AZ to sit in 90 to 100 degree heat for almost two decades and never wavered in your belief the Cardinals would someday be in the Super Bowl, this has been a complete shock. The game of professional football has followed the same path as college basketball and major league baseball; it’s what you do late that counts. Arizona has essentially been an underdog just like the Giants were last season, though the Cardinals did have the benefit of two home games. The underdog role fits this team perfectly, just fueling the motivation it needs to just keep on playing outstanding football. The Cardinals are just the second Super Bowl team to have seven losses (1979 L.A. Rams, played Pittsburgh by the way in SB XIV) and like the Giants are free of any expectations coming into Tampa. The Cardinals are 9-1 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored this season.

Pittsburgh is a deserved favorite, having played seven regular season games against teams that made the NFL playoffs, plus New England and Dallas who were post-season caliber. The Steelers were favored 13 times and came away winners on 10 occasions (7-6 ATS), winning by an average margin of eight points. Pittsburgh does have the better team, which has played better all season long. In retrospect, the Giants were hot last year and New England had already peaked and still could have won except for miracle catch. This is not the case with the Steelers who have proven to be a top notch thoroughbred from start to finish. Since Roethlisberger’s arrival, Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS in the playoffs.

Spread Differential –Arizona -1

Cumulative Spread Differential – Pittsburgh -6

Covering the Wagering Scene for All 94 Feet

With basketball taking over the landscape the rest of winter and a large portion of spring once that game with all the roman numerals is completed, thought we would try something new. Here is what I saw, heard or read this past weekend in basketball.

The Memphis Tigers win against Tennessee in Knoxville was important for John Calipari’s team but doesn’t need to be oversold. The Tigers shot 33.9 percent (15-56) against a defense that has allowed all opponents to convert 43.3 percent on the season. While coach Bruce Pearl has altered some defensive concepts, the win over Vanderbilt on the road earlier this week, looks a whole lot less impressive with what Florida did to the Commodores on Sunday, beating them by 25. Memphis is a good team that can play exceptional defense, yet is a squad with no player who is noteworthy on the offensive end and everyone other than guard Tyreke Evans needs to be set up to have a chance to score. Not really certain if Memphis is anything other than a game to game wager at about .500.

The Big Ten is generally better than most believed back in October, yet it might not translate into March. Michigan State engineered an impressive comeback at Ohio State, outscoring the Buckeyes 52-36, to win by 11 and cover the three point road favorite number. At the same time it was also visible to see why the Spartans are only 3-4 ATS this month. Raymar Morgan is imperative to their success and his illness is inhibiting Tom Izzo’s club from reaching its potential. Morgan just can't seem to fully shake the viral infection that has now affected him for three games, though players like Durrell Summers and Kalin Lucas are coming on. If Morgan gets healthy, watch out.

Illinois proved they are the second best team in the conference, ahead of Purdue at this juncture. Though nowhere near as talented as the team the played for national championship a few years back, the Fighting Illini pass the ball as well as any team in the country and doubts of Bruce Webber being able to recruit with the development of the sophomore class are being forgotten like Savage Garden song.

Ohio State doesn’t have enough offense and players that look ready to meet the challenge when adversity strikes. Almost hard to comprehend how soft Wisconsin is on defense with Bo Ryan still coaching.

Connecticut without a doubt has the look of a team capable of winning six games in late March and early April. What stood out in their win against Notre Dame was the versatility and desire displayed. Jerome Dyson and A. J. Price played well in the backcourt and Kemba Walker looked good coming of the bench. Forward Jeff Adrein looks like he’s been working out with LeBron and a team of Russian weightlifters and fought for every rebound. Hasheem Thabeet has skills as defensive player, with virtually nobody like him in college basketball, however he looks like a real project at the next level to be a contributor scoring.

Notre Dame is fast turning into a major disappointment and all Mike Brey can try and do is restore his player’s confidence. Ryan Ayers, Zach Hillesland and Tory Jackson shot the ball so poorly; it looked like they couldn’t throw the ball in the nearby St. Joes’s river, let alone into the cylinder. The Irish are not quick and if they can’t score, they will really struggle. I’m not sure how you bet on the Irish right now.

How cool is it being Craig Robinson this past week? Who is Mr. Robinson you ask? This past week his sister officially became the First Lady and his brother-in-law picked up a cool gig for at least four years in Washington. He returned back to Corvallis as the Oregon State basketball coach and all his team does is travel northern Cali, where they upset California and Stanford as 17.5-point and 16-point road dogs. This raised their record to 8-10 and 7-7 ATS and the Beavers are 3-5 SU in the Pac-10 after a 0-18 campaign a season ago. Maybe the whole change thing hangin’ around President Obama has something to it. Not sure if Oregon State deserves our attention just yet with cash, however a few home dogs roles are coming, so watch for numbers that might work.

Louisville’s performance at Syracuse was sick it was so good. Coach Rick Pitino has sold his team on “team” and look at the results! Circle next Monday, UConn at the ‘Ville.

I’ve seen San Antonio enough to formulate this thought, they are done. Not like a well-done steak at Ruth Chris, more like their time is up as being a true NBA championship contender done. All the different websites that have standings still have them in first place in the Southwest Division, nevertheless, the Lakers blew them out Sunday and an improved Andrew Bynum played Tim Duncan to a standstill. The Spurs are still a good team and some nights very good, but unless King James demands a trade southwest Texas, San Antonio is not going to beat the Lakers in a seven game series. Since Dec. 23, the Duncan gang is 3-6 ATS in all games where the spread was (+) or (–) 7.5 points.

Hey GM Steve Kerr, how’s that remake working in Phoenix? He moved Shawn Marion for what became known as the Big Cactus and presently Miami and the Suns have nearly the same record this season with the Suns 14-27-1 ATS. Jason Richardson for Raja Bell and Boris Diaw? This month Charlotte is 7-5 and 9-3 ATS, the setting Suns, .500 and 2-9-1 against the spread.

Though Kerr was technically correct in wanting to build a more traditional team, attempting to have 30-something players and a cast that doesn’t know how to play defense to become suddenly defensive-minded, well that’s like laying in the desert sun in the summer time and expecting not to get burnt.

Back for Monday off 3-0 Day

Super turnaround day here at 3Daily Winners, with perfect 3-0 mark. Not many systems available today, with fairly light action and the best of the bunch is in the NBA involving two cold-weather teams, with one of them in 81.8 percent situation. The Top Trend is reverse perfect at 100 percent and involves a NBA division contest. Slick Rick has his play on a Big Monday affair. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) - Play Against home teams after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points, with a marginal losing team like Milwaukee (40 to 49 percent), playing a team like Minnesota with a win percentage of 25 to 40 percent. This winning system has been correct 27 of 33 times the last five years, 81.8 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Miami Heat is 0-9 ATS in home games after a win by six points or less over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Slick Rick of the Left Coast Connection was 3-1 yesterday, including his winner here yesterday, raising his record to 22-8 and will be on Oklahoma in Bedlam Game with rival Cowboys.

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Fighting Irish favored in challenging spot vs Marquette

Notre Dame had the nation’s longest home winning streak snapped at 45 games by Connecticut and has to turned around in less then 48 hours and try and prevent a two game losing streak at the Joyce Center in South Bend. They will have the unenviable task of having to be defeat long time rival Marquette, who has unblemished record in Big East action. The Fighting Irish have lost six of last nine to the Golden Eagles, with just three covers.

What has hurt the Irish (12-6, 5-8 ATS) is two important elements. Last season Notre Dame played above average switching defenses in holding opponents to 41.1 percent shooting. With virtually the same cast back, teams are now converting on 43 percent of shot attempts.

On offense, Notre Dame has two options and little else. Potential Big East player of the year could be Luke Harangody again, who has a vast array of ways to score points. Outside, guard Kyle McAlarney is their only true threat these days and when he is 3 for 15 like he was against UConn, coach Mike Brey has few options to turn to. Starters Tory Jackson, Ryan Ayers and Zach Hillesland have not been consistent performers in Big East play and have often been left alone for open shots they fail continue to make. The bench has failed to supplement the starters, as Luke Zeller and Jonathan Peoples have provided little else than giving players rest. The Irish are just 1-5-1 ATS in last seven Monday assignments.

For Marquette (17-2, 7-6-1 ATS), no problems finding points from their lineup. The terrific trio of Wesley Matthews, Jerel McNeal and Dominic James are thriving as veteran players. Coach Buzz Williams is having an exceptional debut as head coach as his team has won nine in a row (5-2-1 ATS), having the poise to be patient when situations are tenuous. Any of the guards are capable of taking over a game when needed and a fourth reliable element has emerged making the Golden Eagles all but unbeatable of late.

Lazar Hayward may be an undersized power forward at 6’6; nonetheless he is a big time talent. Hayward scores 16.5 points per game and drops 39.2 percent of shots beyond the arc; placing opposing defenses in a real jam who to focus on. It’s no wonder Marquette is 10-4 ATS on the road.

Bookmaker.com has opened Notre Dame as 3-point favorites and it is crystal clear who the linemakers believe is the better team by the spread. Marquette takes care of the ball and is 22-10 ATS after five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers and is 9-3 against the spread if the home team has a 60 percent or higher home win percentage.

Irish players know what’s at stake, “(Three) losses in a row in the Big East, that’s what everyone’s focusing on right now in this locker room,” said McAlarney. “We need to win.” Notre Dame is 14th in conference in points allowed at 70.1 and must do a better job defensively. The Domers are miserable 0-6 ATS vs. teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points per game after 15 contests on the year.

This is the opener on Big Monday on ESPN starting at 7 Eastern and Notre Dame is 10-1 ATS off three straight losses against conference rivals.

Dressed for Sunday Wagering Success

Mike had his worst day in some time with 2-5 day and is replaced by Slick Rick who is on nice run for today’s Free Play. Our Top System and Top Trend allowed us to have 2-2 day and we have an 80 percent system on the big Spurs and Lakers matchup and an 88.8 percent play against trend play in the Missouri Valley today. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST underdogs like San Antonio off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, against opponent off a home win scoring 110 or more points. This NBA system meets our minimum requirement of 80 percent with 28-7 ATS record.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Missouri State is 2-16 ATS versus good shooting teams making 45 or more percent of their of shots over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Slick Rick of the LLC is on 19-7 run in all sports wagering and likes Central Florida to keep winning today.