NFL Week 3 Inside Info

The Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots are two the teams that need to get season turned in the right direction quickly or preseason aspirations might be unfounded. The San Francisco 49ers has adopted the personality of their coach Mike Singletary and will try and pull another surprise in Minnesota on Sunday. Drew Brees has New Orleans en fuego, but they are expected to having a rugged time in Buffalo. Can Cincinnati end home drought to the Super Bowl champions? That question and many others will be answered as theirs Week 3 of the NFL commences.

Tennessee at N.Y. Jets 1:00E CBS

The Titans and Jets aren’t divisional foes, but they have become quite familiar with one another over the last several seasons. In fact, this Week 3 meeting between the teams will mark the fourth straight season that the teams have squared off. In that span, the Jets own a 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS edge. In fact, the Jets have actually swept the last five meetings overall against the spread. At 0-2, Tennessee is in dangerous waters, with a difficult stretch of games upcoming. The Jets are flying high, one of nine 2-0 teams after beating the Patriots. Head coach Jeff Fisher’s team has gone 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games, while the Jets’ Week 2 win improved their mark in early season home contests, they are still dismal 8-20 ATS as September hosts.

Keys to the Game-

Facts are facts; the Titans pass defense has been wretched, dead last in the NFL at 339 yards per game. Tennessee has first year DC Chuck Cecil and they’ve blitzed hardly at all, now would be a good time to show urgency and pressure QB Mark Sanchez, if they want pull the upset and improve to 9-1 ATS in opening month. Kerry Collins will see similar blitz packages Tom Brady did last week and will have to be on target and utilize RB Chris Johnson in open areas. Look for LenDale White to see more action against the No. 6 New York run defense. The Titans are 14-3 ATS after gaining 200 or more rushing yards in last game.

The Jets offensive coaches have done exceptional work in giving Sanchez just enough to handle, without overburdening him. The run game has been effective enough and Sanchez has delivered when being asked to throw. Coach Rex Ryan has already made his impression on Flyboys, having the same smile as comedian Ron White in an “I told you so manner”. New York’s front seven must lock up Johnson, since the Titans are run-first team and if successful, will send five and six players to hound Collins. New York is 6-2 ATS off a win; however is 1-7 ATS if opponent is off SU favorite loss this month.

3DWLine – N.Y. Jets -7

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – N.Y. Jets -2, 37

San Francisco at Minnesota 1:00E FOX

Minnesota is off to a fast start at 2-0, with both wins having come on the road. Thus, a fired up Metrodome crowd figure to greet the Vikings and their new signal caller on Sunday when they host San Francisco in the home opener. The franchise has split its last eight opening home games SU & ATS and has gone just 10-15 ATS under Brad Childress as hosts. Minnesota is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings when hosting the 49ers, and overall, the home team owns an 8-2 SU & ATS mark. For the 49ers, also 2-0 after beating Seattle at home, another away contest offers a chance to extend a 4-2 ATS stretch in road games under head coach Mike Singletary. The matchup could hinge on the 49ers rush defense (53 yards per game, 2.6 yards per carry) stopping running back Adrian Peterson and the Vikings’ ground game (168 YPG, 5.4 YPR).

Keys to the Game-

The Vikings may be off a pair of wins; however the trademark run defense has not manifested itself to date. It’s true, basing production after two tilts is panicky, nevertheless, Minnesota ranks 15th against the rush taking on lowly Cleveland and Detroit. The 49ers with Frank Gore bring more to the party and the Vikes closed last season 1-4 ATS in the dome. Brett Favre hasn’t gotten in sync with his receivers yet and they are 31st in yards per pass attempt (4.8), they’ll need to make better connections to loosen Niners secondary. Favre has been sacked seven times already and taken other body blows. This has to change or Minny falls to 3-11 ATS of a victory.

San Francisco’s defense is rated seventh, because they have limited big plays and forced the opposing team to go the length of the field one first down at a time. This becomes even more important against Adrian Peterson. The Niners have covered last four contests as underdogs by protecting the pigskin; they’ll need more of the same in Minnesota. The 49ers offensive coaches should not want to fall into trap of giving up on third down and medium or long, always hoping a receiver can make a play. The coaches have to be more aggressive and attack. San Fran is 10-2 UNDER in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games.

3DW Line – Minnesota by 4
Bookmaker.com Line – Minnesota -7, 39.5

Atlanta at New England 1:00E FOX

The 2-0 Falcons hit the road for the first time in 2009, with a difficult task at hand, facing the 1-1 Patriots. Atlanta has fared well in inter-conference games, 11-5-1 ATS over the last four seasons vs. the AFC. They also come in on a nice stretch of 7-3 SU & 9-1 ATS in pre-bye week games since 2001. The Falcons will enjoy next week off before heading to San Francisco. With this game, New England begins a stretch of three home games in the next four weeks against some of the NFL’s better clubs. Dating back to 2004, the Pats are just 15-22 ATS at Foxboro. They are only 3-5 ATS hosting NFC clubs in that span. This will be the first time since 1998 that the Falcons have visited New England, and the road clubs have won the last three meetings, both SU & ATS.

Keys to the Game-

It’s not business as usual for New England as many anticipated. Tom Brady might be cool under pressure, but is proving to not like angry large men around his surgically repaired left knee. His mechanics are off, getting rid of the ball a split second sooner than before and acting human. The offensive line and running backs have to start shouldering more of the load for the 26th ranked running game. That means this week containing DE John Abraham. The Patriots are 22-7 ATS off a loss and just don’t look and feel right. This thought process is formulated by seeing New England is third in total defense, yet when watching them, the Bills and Jets SEEMED to make all the plays they needed when necessary.

Atlanta has been more aggressive to attempting to create pressure this season on defense and will want to keep Brady off-kilter however possible. The Falcons are 11-4 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points and will want to batter away at New England’s defensive front with Michael Turner. Atlanta has averaged 32 rush attempts in first two games, which would help keep the Brady Bunch off the field, but coach Mike Smith better find another back, with Turner having 50 carries already. Matt Ryan has looked super and that grin he’s wearing has a lot to do with having Tony Gonzalez as tight end, which really makes the passing game work. The Birds will try to reverse 0-6 ATS trend after two or more wins over the last three seasons.

3DW Line – New England by 1

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -4.5, 46.5

New Orleans at Buffalo 4:05E FOX

New Orleans might be one of the NFL’s elite teams and the favorite in Sunday’s game at Buffalo, but make no mistake, this one won’t be easy. After last week’s win over Tampa Bay, Head coach Dick Jauron now owns a 15-3 ATS mark at home against non-conference teams. His Bills’ clubs are also 9-4 ATS in September, and 8-4 ATS as home underdogs. By all rights, Buffalo should be 2-0 headed into this one as well, having handed New England the win in the Monday night opener. The Saints are in a comfortable role however, that being road favorites. Under Sean Payton, they are 7-1 SU & ATS after last week’s win at Philly. His team was also 4-0 ATS against the AFC last season. In this series, road teams are on a 3-1 SU & ATS run, with favorites having swept the last three.

Keys to the Game –

The thesaurus sure comes in handy in describing Drew Brees and the Saints offense thus far. Brees is playing with max confidence and has more visible weapons than Iran. As long as the offensive line keeps the protection up and runners like Mike Bell are effective, New Orleans is going to make long weeks for opposing defensive coordinators. The Saints defense won’t strike fear into the hearts of opposing clubs, but seven forced turnovers have limited opponents from scoring and if a team can establish identity for causing miscues, they make the opposition more careful. Buffalo head man Dick Jauron has never given the impression as coach that “hits” on 15 in blackjack, which benefits the Saints who are 6-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road.

The best way to negate New Orleans offense is keep them on the sidelines. The Bills are averaging 5.7 yards per carry with Fred Jackson doing the toting. Buffalo will want establish Jackson and if successful, that means the Saints have to start walking safeties up on earlier downs, creating more space for Lee Evans and Terrell Owens. The Bills are 10-3-2 ATS as non-division home dogs of three or more and will have to be creative defensively in cooling Brees. Buffalo blitzed over 60 percent of Tampa Bay’s drop-backs a week ago and will have to similar numbers, with greater disguise against the Saints. Bills QB Trent Edwards can’t turn the ball over, and must find safety Darren Sharper on all pre-snap reads. Bills must avoid shootout, with New Orleans 13-3 OVER after one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.

3DW Line – New Orleans by 1
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -6, 51.5

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati 4:15E CBS

Pittsburgh and Cincinnati will each be playing their first divisional games of 2009 when they go head-to-head on Sunday. Both teams are 1-1 and already looking up at Baltimore the AFC North standings. For the Bengals’, this game is critical, as they face a back-to-back road trip next up on the schedule and since they will be looking to thwart a trend of 3-13 SU & ATS against Pittsburgh at home. Overall, Pittsburgh has won the last five battles, including four in a row by double-digit margins. Cincy is also just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 divisional games, 1-4 SU & ATS at home. The Steelers are 9-4 ATS vs. AFC North rivals in the Mike Tomlin era, 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS on the road. They look to rebound from the loss in Chicago, their third straight ATS setback away from home.

Keys to the Game-

It hard to call this a rivalry, as Cincinnati hasn’t won at home against Pittsburgh since 2001, but no time like the present. The Bengals players to a man feel disrespected by the Steelers and want to change the score. Without Troy Polamalu, Ochocinco and Cincinnati wideouts will have a little more room over the middle. If they can get backup Tyrone Carter to bite, this leaves more space outside the hashmarks for Carson Palmer to operate. RB Cedric Benson is running like the back Chicago drafted, with 217 yards already. No back has gone over 100 yards against the Steelers in 20 games, but if Benson can pile up yardage to keep his team out of bad down and distance situations and carry for a few first downs, that will help immensely for a team that is 11-5 ATS after rushing for over 150 yards.

The Cincinnati defense has been more attacking and for whatever reason, the first two Bengals opponents have only averaged 19 carries a game in spite of being close contests. Pittsburgh has to get running game untracked and Cincy is pedestrian 4.3 YPC allowed, thus serve up Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall. The O-Line has to block DE Antwan Odom, who has a season full of sacks (7) for most defensive linemen in two games. The Steelers D has created pressure, just not sacks. They need to put the immobile Palmer on the ground to improve to 22-8-2 ATS as division road team.

3DWLine – Pittsburgh by 5.5

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Pittsburgh -3.5, 37.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Let's have a Scintillating Saturday

When we last did this on Thursday, we picked up our third straight 2-1 day. Let’s hope it’s that or more starting with a Top Trend that is 14-0 against and you would NEVER guess the team. The Best System is 28-6 ATS in non-conference action and Sal has what he believes is another winner at 3Daily Winners. Good Luck

What I thought today – I just can’t stand when I’m already to back a certain team all week in football and then I find totally contrary information. I still might play Oregon State, but for a lot less than I was going to. God ^@#*&)@)

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Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs of 14.5 or more points like Bowling Green- after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored. Since 1999, this system is 28-6, 82.4 percent against the spread.

Free Football Trend -2) This is a crazy trend I never recall seeing, Penn State is is 0-14 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game since 1992.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal has hit two straight, he’ll go for a third with UL-Monroe today.

Guaranteed College Football Plays today include --Non-Conference Fraud of the Month and Paul Buck’s Saturday Sweeper

The Platinum Sheet is filled with Winning Information.

Early Line Moves in Football

Next year 3Daily Winners expects to have a football newsletter, but in the meantime, we will offer Free inside information. When we say “inside information” we mean finding material not commonly found on other websites and blogs. In other words we had to figure it out. One popular and profitable segment I’ve followed for years is Early Line Moves.

Last week was improved across the board as I expected, not sensational, just steady. The college sides were 5-4 ATS, raising record to 12-15 on the year and totals (where many professional bettors hang out) were 7-3 on early action, taking that record to 14-9. Last week, there was no side action in the NFL, leaving the record at 3-2; however the totals were 2-1, for 2-4 start.

I’m all but certain next year I won’t count the first week in college or pros, since those numbers have too much exposure over time to all kinds of bettors.

College Sides
Northwestern -2 to +1.5
Rutgers -3 to Pick
Utah -11.5 to -14
Navy -26.5 to -30
Arizona -2.5 to +2

College Totals
Misso/Nev 58 to 62
Buff/Temple 49 to 45.5
TCU/Clem 48 to 44
UAB/Tex A&M 60 to 63
USM/Kansas 57 to 61
ASU/ Geor 56 to 51
Cal/Oreg 60 to 56
USF/Flor. St. 54 to 50
N.D./Purdue 57 to 60

NFL Sides
Green Bay -8.5 to -6.5
San Diego -7.5 to -5.5
Pittsburgh -6 to -3.5
Arizona Pick to -2.5

NFL Totals
SF/Minn 42 to 40
Car/Dall 45 to 47.5

Saturday's Big Wagering Options

With Joe Paterno a college football legend, the former Brooklyn native knows his team has taken on three tomato cans and will face a squad with pulse in Big Ten opener against Iowa. The ACC has pair of arresting games, with Miami now a favorite at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech looking to knock North Carolina out of the unbeaten ranks. California has USC next, but can’t overlook perfidious Oregon first. Arkansas has given Alabama problems in the past, can they again with quality offense? Speaking of offense, the most fun game by far looks like Texas Tech at Houston, where the score is already 17-13 and they haven’t kicked off yet. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

North Carolina (+3, 45.5) at Georgia Tech Raycom 12:00E

The Tar Heels returned nine starters on defense and this has been the strength of the team early in the 2009 campaign. They will now be tested by Georgia Tech’s powerful option offense in Atlanta. Coach Butch Davis’ defense held Connecticut offense to 196 total yards and did a good job in limiting East Carolina to 13 first downs and 17 points last week. What’s encouraging is the defense has been a team concept, with 11 different players having made tackles for a loss. They are tied for 10th in the country in points allowed at 11 per game. The offense still needs work as quarterback T.J. Yates is searching for the right chemistry with receivers. North Carolina is 8-4 ATS as single digit ACC underdog.

Georgia Tech has an extra two days to prepare after losing at Miami 33-17 on ESPN last Thursday. The Yellow Jackets success or failure will in part fall upon the right arm of junior Josh Nesbitt. Far from a polished passer, Nesbitt can throw the pigskin accurately when he sticks with his mechanics. When he deviates, he can stink up the joint like he did against Clemson, going thru 1 for 11 spell.

Teams with big physical defenses that have enough quickness on the defensive front, are starting to have success against triple option attacks. This means Nesbit has to continue to be a clutch performer and come up big when called upon as he has in the past with 5-2 and 5-1 ATS record in games decided by four or less points.

Georgia Tech has won three of last five but is 0-5 ATS since 2004 versus the Tar Heels. North Carolina in fact is 11-4 against the spread in last 15 ACC affairs, with the underdog a nicely profitable 8-4 ATS. Watch the oddsmakers line for movement on this contest, with the Heels 8-4 ATS catching three or less points. The Yellow Jackets escaped 27-25 as nine-point home favorite in 2007 and they are 21-9 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3.

3DWLine – Pick

Arkansas (+17.5, 58) at Alabama CBS 3:30E

Coach Bobby Petrino has a more veteran team this season and has less to worry about from the mental standpoint after his squad lost 52-41 to Georgia at home, before getting ready to play Alabama. Nothing would satisfy Petrino’s ego more than to start knocking off giants like the Crimson Tide, so he could update his resume for the next job he’s seeking on his Linkedin or Facebook pages. His quarterback is Ryan Mallet, whose displayed NFL arm and ability to find different receivers in Razorbacks offense. Mallet will be tested all game long by Alabama defense that can make QB’s make poor choices. The Hogs head to Tuscaloosa 10-4 ATS as away dogs.

Coach Nick Saban’s defense is like the boss in the office meeting who quietly takes everything in and once he’s seen or heard enough takes control. The first few Crimson Tide opponents have had some success moving the ball in the first part of the game, but like a water faucet, are turned off after showing what they expect to do. Field general Greg McElroy has shown growth weekly, delivering strikes to receivers and improving complete view of the field. McElroy strength as a thrower is the deep ball and he’ll have numerous opportunities against Razorbacks secondary. Despite a bushel full of athletes, Bama special teams are anything but and the squad is 7-16-1 ATS as SEC favorites of 10 or more points.

This has been one of those SEC series. The home team is 5-10 ATS and has failed to cover the last four engagements and with Mallet’s big arm and talented pass catchers, Arkansas has at least a puncher’s chance to cover the spread. The straight up winner is 15-3 ATS all-time when these two universities get together, but has been trending the other way at 1-3 ATS the last four years.

Alabama has won a school record 17 straight SEC openers (8-9 ATS), while the Razorbacks are 4-12 ATS in first conference road trip. Remember also, the Tide is 0-7 ATS at home after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in three straight games and 17-5 UNDER at their place after three or more consecutive wins.

3DW Line – Alabama by 15

California (-5.5, 55.5) at Oregon ABC 3:30E

California is off harder than expected trip to the Land of 10,000 Lakes and feels prepared to open Pac-10 play with two treacherous weeks ahead. The Bears offense is in good hands when potential All-American Jahvid Best is carrying the ball. Chances are with all the talent on the field for Cal QB Kevin Riley, he doesn’t have to be great all the time; however he might be called upon to be so in enemy territory this week. Though the Bears defense can really get after the passer, they can be passed on (ranked 62nd), especially between the hash marks away from corner Syd’Quan Thompson. Cal is unsightly 0-5 ATS in the second of back to back road tilts.

Each game played places Oregon further away from LeGarrette Blount incident, nonetheless doesn’t mask obvious shortcomings. The Ducks receivers have been more likely to catch the H1N1 virus than Jeremiah Masoli passes and the junior quarterback has thrown his fair share of passes this season that have wobbled like, well, a duck. After being bottled up by Boise State, the running game has averaged 205 yards per game the last two weeks. The defense hasn’t impressed anyone (82nd in yards allowed), though linebacker Casey Mathews is emerging as playmaker and senior cornerback Walter Thurmond III is an excellent pass defender in a league stuffed with quality defensive backs. In reviewing history, Oregon is 18-4 ATS in first conference clash.

Four of the last six confrontations between these squads have been decided by seven points or less. California is 5-0 ATS playing a Pac-10 foe off a non-conference contest, with average winning margin of 38.6 points per game. Oregon is 21-14 ATS taking on ranked teams the last decade and 12-2 ATS after playing a game at home. Before losing 31-24 in Eugene in 2007, The Ducks had rattled off six straight wins over the Bears with six covers.

3DW Line – California by 5.5

Miami (-3, 47.5) at Virginia Tech ABC 3:30E

It’s sad really, from 1992 until 2003, a Miami and Virginia Tech battle was the essence of Big East football. The games weren’t always close, but they spoke about what made the conference as it grew in stature. These two rivals still meet in ACC action, but the importance has been somewhat diminished.

Coach Randy Shannon clearly did not look at Miami’s schedule before taking the job in 2006, since only a person with only short term job ambitions would want to play an early schedule that includes Florida State, Georgia Tech, the Hokies and Oklahoma in its first four games. Miami’s new wide-open offense has unleashed QB Jacory Harris, who has embraced the idea of throwing the ball to a variety of receivers. The defense is rounding into formidable unit and is allowing just 3.0 yards per carry. The Hurricanes are 7-2 ATS in last nine road excursions.

This is Virginia Tech’s third consecutive contest in Blacksburg and they are jacked after knocking off Nebraska in 16-15 thriller this past week, in a game they never should have won. Beamer-ball is often solely associated with special teams, yet what makes Frank Beamer an elite coach is finding offensive linemen that enjoy opening up chasms and shifty running backs who can fly thru them. Add in relentless defenders that run to the ball and the real recipe for success is realized playing Beamer-ball. The Hokies are 34-9 and 29-14 ATS since joining the Athletic Coast Conference.

Virginia Tech is 9-5 and 11-3 ATS versus Miami since 1995, including 5-1 against the spread record at Lane Stadium. The wagering public is both not impressed with the Hokies and very impressed with the Hurricanes, taking the ACC matchup from a Pick, to Miami by three.

The Hokies are only 5-5 ATS in the third of three or more consecutive home games and are just 7-11-1 ATS with home field advantage the last four seasons. Expect the Canes defense to stack the box like the Huskers did and force QB Tyrod Taylor to move the chains. Look for coach Shannon to use RB’s Graig Cooper and Javarris James to go after the Hokies 108th ranked run defense (200.3 YPG). The Hurricanes will have to crank up the offense, scoring more than 17 points once in last six contests.

3DW Line – Virginia Tech by 10

Iowa (+9.5, 40.5) at Penn State ABC 8:00E

Iowa has drawn very few patsies in Big Ten openers since the new millennium began and this will be no different traveling to State College, PA. The Hawkeyes have been 4-0 twice in the previous six years and a third time would bring significant attention to Kirk Ferentz’s football program, beating highly ranked Penn State. Iowa football is about the basics, blocking and tackling. The offensive line has started to come together and pair of freshmen running backs (Brandon Wegher and Adam Robinson) has folks in Iowa City excited. If QB Ricky Stanzi continues to read defenses proficiently and finds the hot receiver, the Iowa defense will hold up their end of the deal, ranked 14th in points surrendered at 12 per game. The Hawkeyes are 8-3 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

At this juncture, it’s not easy to gauge just how good Penn State is or isn’t. Most top level teams would plow through Akron, Syracuse and Temple at home, just like the Nittany Lions have. The Penn State players’ hearts should be racing, as Iowa handed them their only regular season loss a year ago, 24-23 as seven-point road favorites. Senior Daryll Clark has been accurate thrower, as the offensive line has been better at pass-blocking compared to run blocking in September to this point. With the competition in the lightweight category, what we know about the defense is they can stop the run and prevent big plays. Penn State is 8-3 ATS when favored by 17 or fewer points at home in the last four years.

Joe Paterno’s defense has held three crummy opponents to 6.7 points per game, however, Iowa’s not exactly an offense juggernaut ranked 68th in total offense. The Hawkeyes are 4-14 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards per carry. Iowa however has held the upper hand with 7-3 and 8-2 ATS mark over Joe Pa’s troops in the last 15 years. The underdog has bitten as much as it could chew with 8-2 ATS record, including five outright upsets. And get this, Penn State is bizarro-world 0-14 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game.

StatFox Power Line – Penn State 7.5

Texas Tech (+1, 74.5) at Houston ESPN2 9:15E

It’s back to work for Houston after a bye week, enjoying the adulation of knocking of then No.5 Oklahoma State on their home field 45-35. They will try and knock off another Big 12 team, Texas Tech, this time at home. Being 3-0 with two wins over Big 12 teams will have Houston and Conference USA being mentioned as BCS bowl-crasher this season. Coach Kevin Sumlin has taken what Art Briles (now at Baylor) started and improved it. The Cougars are ranked for the first time in 18 years and there is a lot of excitement about triggerman Case Keenum. The junior quarterback makes exceptional decisions in finding speedy and quick receivers. With all the praise, coach Sumlin’s toughest job might be refocusing his team; not playing Texas Tech. Houston is 15-25 ATS in non-conference play since 2000.

Texas Tech comes off the Texas revenge game and played better than expected in 34-24 defeat. QB Taylor Potts is the next signal caller in the Mike Leach assembly line that gets rid of the ball quickly and makes good reads. Potts has security blanket in wide receiver in Lyle Leong, who has been his best friend since elementary school and the two have played football together all along the way. Red Raiders coaches like what they got from running back Tre’ Newton against the Longhorns, rushing for 88 yards. With the playing surface less an issue today for the sports bettor than before, Texas Tech is a curious 10-22 SU and ATS in regular season games on natural grass.

As Mississippi proved Thursday night, playing with expectations can be stifling experience and this is what Houston has tonight. With win over Okie State, Houston is 10-5 ATS versus BCS schools since 2001, but is 0-9 ATS after two or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons. Coach Leach is one of the best bounce back coaches in the game off a loss; with his team 25-12 ATS in next effort. The total is vexing figure with Texas Tech 27-9 OVER off a cover and the Cougars 8-2 UNDER after a bye week.

3DW Line – Texas Tech by 1

Nevada needs Kaepernick and defense to play big

Nevada finally opens its home schedule, but the assignment will be anything but easy. The Wolf Pack brought back 14 starters and a number of key reserves that were supposedly ready to move into starting slots. Junior quarterback Colin Kaepernick was ready for breakout junior season after promising first two years in Reno.

Offensive-minded Nevada hung a zero on the scoreboard in South Bend and much of the reasoning given was Notre Dame’s attacking blitz-scheme coming to fruition with bigger and faster players. That theory has been discarded with the Fighting Irish allowing 68 points in next two games.

Nevada’s pass defense was the worst in the FBS last season and there wasn’t much reason to believe they were going to be a whole lot better in 2009, unless the front seven could rush the passer better and stop the run with greater aplomb. After being gashed for 178.5 yards on the ground and surrendering seven touchdown passes thru the air, it doesn’t look like defense will be a strong suit for Nevada.

Coach Chris Ault prides himself as offense coach and his offense has been offensive in committing eight turnovers and scoring only 20 points this season. Kaepernick hasn’t shown the same accuracy as before and been somewhat less inclined to take off and scamper. Maybe putting on the blue uniform will help the Wolf Pack (0-2, SU & ATS) who are 7-3 ATS at home in non-conference play.

After pounding a little Paladin 52-12, (Furman’s nickname) Missouri (3-0, 1-1 ATS) gets back to the business of playing real football teams, traveling to Nevada. Coach Gary Pinkel knows the offensive problems that arose against Bowling Green have to be avoided because the Wolf Pack are dangerous at home.

Quarterback Blaine Gabbert has quickly grown into the Tigers offense, being on the mark to receivers Jared Perry and Danario Alexander. He’s benefitted from excellent protection from his offensive line and an adequate running game churning out 4.2 yards per carry.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Missouri as seven-point road favorites, with a rising total of 60.5. The Tigers are 6-2 SU & ATS in true road games and are 8-0 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons. One would expect the talented Kaepernick to raise his level of play and want to make good on national TV after Notre Dame debacle. Playing before a friendly home crowd, Nevada is 19-8 ATS under coach Ault and 10-2 ATS at home when the total is between 56.5 and 63.

Nevada’s biggest issue is going to be stopping Tigers attack and they are only 1-9 ATS when they allow 28 or more points over the last two seasons. At the very least, the Wolf Pack ought to peeved after being shellacked 69-17 in Columbia last year.

ESPN has this Big-12/WAC clash starting at 9 Eastern.

Thursday Action, comment and bonus

Registered a second straight 2-1 day and third wouldn’t be bad at all. Today’s Top Trend is in afternoon action and in the American League at superb 13-1. We even delivered a bonus angle for Saturday in CFB. The Best System follows AL Central squad and is 83.3 percent. Good Luck

What I thought today – Why in baseball do they still have antiquated rules of when a player switches leagues during the season, his current numbers are based only on the team he is with? Do interleague games count? Are not the umpires under one umbrella instead of separate leagues? Let’s end this silly rule and have players true season totals reflect what is happing in MLB. Bud can you hear me?

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like the Tigers, with an AL team batting average of .265 or worse on the season, after a win by six runs or more. You have to go all the way back to 1997 where this system began, to produce results that are 60-12, 83.3 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Scott Feldman and the Texas Rangers are 13-1 (+13.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season. Bonus angle for Saturday -The Kansas Jayhawks are 13-1 ATS after two or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Sorry got busy and completely forgot, Sal had Seattle tonight and Hernandez must start.

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Ole Miss in prickly SEC Opener

After sailing by S.E. Louisiana 52-6 last Saturday, Mississippi has to start living up to preseason hype and opens conference schedule on the road at South Carolina.

These are heady times at The Grove. Ole Miss (2-0, 1-0 ATS) is ranked 4th in the AP, their highest position in the polls since 1970, when the father of Peyton and Eli Manning was taking snaps in Oxford. The Rebels have won eight games in a row (6-1 ATS) for the first time in almost 37 years.

Coach Houston Nutt hopes the offensive line plays better, as quarterback Jevan Snead hasn’t looked as sharp as expected. Nutt has stated the O-Line has to do a better job sustaining blocks, especially at the tackle positions. The Rebels defense has been good and the secondary has come around faster than expected, however they will be tested by a Steve Spurrier offense rounding into shape under quarterback Stephen Garcia.

South Carolina (2-1, 3-0 ATS) is turning into the “ameba” of college football, taking on whatever shape needed to be competitive in a contest. In the opener, the defense led to a 7-3 victory and the offense scored 37 points in just coming up short at Georgia 41-37, as a touchdown underdog. Last week they handled Florida Atlantic at home 38-16, which means all options are available for this matchup. Garcia looks to be on the come, with a pair of very good performances. Spurrier has graded his team “OK” in all facets.

“We’re trying to get better in every area. We haven’t dominated in any particular phase. We haven’t been terrible but the whole team’s trying to get better. - Spurrier stated. The Gamecocks are 7-3 with ordinary 5-5 ATS record against the SEC West.

Bookmaker.com has Ole Miss as four-point favorites with total of 53. Though it’s only the first conference game of the year, the high ranking and expectations are from a bygone era and take getting used to. The Rebels are 4-8 ATS as a road favorite since 2001 and a loss means playing uphill all season with Alabama and LSU yet to come. Too many in-game hiccups could spell doom for Mississippi, who is 2-14 SU and ATS in SEC openers since 1993 and has lost five in a row and failed to cover 11(that is correct) straight.

In the last five meetings between these schools, the home team is 0-5 ATS, with the favorite covering the number only one time. Coach Nutt believes the defense is the strength of the team, which translates into South Carolina having a manageable running game for down and distance purposes. If not, Garcia could face stern Ole Miss pass rush, which in turn might lead to turnovers.

For fans of scoring trends, the Rebels are 9-0 ATS after scoring 40 or more points and South Carolina is 5-2 ATS off a 20-point or greater victory.

On ESPN, the Rebels lofty ranking will be challenged and something has to give on the total, with Mississippi 5-2 OVER on Thursday’s and the home team 6-2-1 UNDER on the same day of the week.

MLB System has San Diego in world of hurt

The Colorado Rockies lost last night to San Diego 6-3 and all wanna-be contenders for the wild card in the National League did not. That left Colorado with a four game lead in the loss column over San Francisco and Atlanta, with 10 games to play. The Rockies understand what it’s going to take to wrap up their second playoff berth in two years at this juncture.

If we win the rest of our series, nobody catches us,” Rockies manager Jim Tracy said.

They will attempt to stay on that course today in the deciding game of the series again the Padres. Colorado (86-66, +13.5 units) is seeking its fourth straight series win and is sending Jason Hammel (9-8, 4.35 ERA, 1.402 WHIP) to nail it down. The Rockies have won seven of Hammel’s last 10 starts and the right-hander has an ERA of 3.38 over his last seven outings, yet he is only 2-1 during that stretch. “He’s been much better than a 9-8 pitcher for us,” Tracy said.

San Diego (70-83, +1.1 units) has had a miraculous season considering traditional baseball facts. The Padres are the only team in the Major League’s that has allowed 4.8 or more runs per game and tallied less than four runs per game. That means on average, they have lost almost a run per game on a nightly basis.

Compare that to Arizona, whom San Diego is four games ahead in the standings in the NL West, who also has given up 4.8 runs per game, but has scored 4.5 runs per contest. In the bigger picture, the D-Backs have a -60 run differential, while San Diego has more than doubled Arizona’s figure at -133, yet trail the Pads.

How could this be, it’s surprisingly simple and rather random. The Padres are 22-17 in one run games and the Snakes are 20-27.

San Diego will send Clayton Richard (4-2, 4.76, 1.500) to throw off the slap and Bookmaker.com has installed the Friars as +175 road underdogs with a total of 9.5. According to today’s best system, San Diego is in trouble.

Play Against NL road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, allowing 4.8 or more runs a game on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher who has WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts.

Since 2005, this system has roared to 86-20 record, which is 81.1 percent. There is a comfort level to playing against the Padres, as teams in their situation have lost by 2.6 runs per game when placed in this position.

It’s a fact any system can lose, especially when a team is feeling the pressure of pennant chase, yet even the most skeptical sports bettor has to like the fact Colorado is 25-6 as a home favorite of -150 or more and San Diego is 4-15 off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog this season.

Good Luck!

Time to get over the Wednesday hump

A bad Colorado bullpen cost us 3-0 day, thus we move on. The Top Trend is 100 percent and is situated on the South Side of Chicago. The Best System is very good play at 56-13 and has delivered 83.3 percent winners this season also. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – All this talk about the USC quarterbacks is making my ear drums hurt. Let’s start with the facts, Aaron Corp was the better player in camps and won the job until he got hurt. Though he didn’t play well against Washington, he’s played one college game. Matt Barkley was elevated to starter because Corp got hurt and was OK against Ohio State and very sharp under pressure as quarterback in game winning drive against the Buckeyes. He’s play two CFB games.

These are young quarterbacks, they need help. Where was the offensive line in Seattle stepping up like they did against Ohio State? Where was the defense when they couldn’t stop Jake Locker when he led Huskies to winning field goal? Don’t blame the quarterback, USC lost as a team and if they expect to win the Pac-10, they will have to do so as a team.

When Corp was going thru rough periods, didn’t you wonder how little USC coaches think of Mitch Mustain not to even entertain putting him in? Just think if Mustain had stayed at Arkansas, he be the starting quarterback in pass-friendly Bobby Petrino offense.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher like Cincinnati, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games, against opponent after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more earned runs. Since 2005, this tight system is 56-13, 81.2 percent, including 10-2 this year.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Consider Mark Buehrle a panjandrum, with the White Sox 12-0 when he pitches with the money line is -100 to -150 this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Sal has had a number of runs here and expects the Tigers to tame the Tribe.

Guaranteed Thursday Night College Football Play!

The Platinum Sheet is filled with Winning Information.

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Betting ACC football looks like coin flip

Let’s start with the facts, the ACC generously speaking, is lousy. Not in all sports, as North Carolina has done a great job holding up the league’s reputation in college basketball and the conference sent two teams to the College World Series in baseball this past summer. No, were just talking football.

In 2004, the Atlantic Coast Conference university presidents saw the money the SEC and the Big 12 were making holding a conference championship game in football and the interest and buzz it created nationally. Not afraid to throw around a little cash, along with promises, the ACC raided the Big East and took their three strongest football programs (all for the sake of higher learning of course) and rebuilt a the league into a dozen teams. Miami and Virginia Tech joined in 2004 and Boston College followed a year later. A new “super” conference was born, right?

Well not exactly. Along the way a few stumbling blocks occurred. While the Big East additions were supposed to enhance competition, they weren’t supposed to dominate. Of the four ACC title games played so far, five representatives have been from the Big East, lead by Virginia Tech three times. In fairness, things do move a little slower in the South. When Florida State joined the ACC, they won their first 29 conference contests and 47 of 48.

Because of the success the Mountain West Conference has enjoyed, speculation has been written and discussed about adding them to the BCS (oh that will happen) or possibly dropping a weaker league and adding the MWC to the mix. (Not likely)

If for example that were to occur how does the ACC standup?

Since reshuffling the deck in 2004-05, the ACC is 134-96, 58.2 percent straight up against D-1 or FBS teams in non-conference games. That’s just below average compared to the other five BCS conferences and the Mountain West. For the sports bettor, the ACC isn’t an acceptable wager with a record of 109-119-2 against the spread in those encounters. That’s 52.2 percent on the losing side of wagers, not including adding the vig.

The news is even worse when you consider over the last three years and the beginning of this season these 12 teams win only 44 percent of the time against the aforementioned other conferences.

What is the problem with the ACC, it’s actually two-fold. First, the school presidents fully expected adding three new teams and a little magic dust and suddenly it’s the SEC. The ACC is a basketball conference. Most schools are willing to pay decent money to coach players in short pants, but haven’t shown that same willingness on the gridiron.

This leads to the quality of coaches in charge of these programs. Bobby Bowden is not the same as he was 10 to 20 years ago. Frank Beamer is still elite head coach, however after, not much Hall of Fame material. Tom O’Brien, Jim Grobe, Butch Davis and Paul Johnson all fit in the “good” category with Johnson the most likely to reach greater heights. Veteran coaches like Al Groh and David Cutcliffe will get the most out of what they can recruit by academic standards at Virginia and Duke and Ralph Freidgen wins enough to keep the alumni off his back. At this point Randy Shannon, Frank Spaziani and Dabo Swinney all have incomplete grades and none were costly hires.

With the ACC about to really delve into league play what should the sports bettor expect in balanced league lacking true star power?

The game of football has evolved to where so much importance is placed on the quarterback. The two best veteran quarterbacks are Riley Skinner at Wake Forest and Thaddeus Lewis at Duke, however neither will be making a living at that position once their eligibility is completed. The league’s future might be in its youthful signal callers, with the likes of Jacory Harris at Miami, Russell Wilson at N.C. State and Christian Ponder at Florida State. Each has the skill to be complete player and should only get better with proper work ethic and talent around them. Tyrod Taylor and Josh Nesbitt are both exciting players who are mostly one-dimensional players. The truth is the league reflects the quarterback play at this time, rather generic and predicated on youth without the infrastructure to protect on off days.

In breaking down conference play over the last five seasons it’s about as expected. Virginia Tech is 34-9 and 29-14 ATS when ACC title games are counted. Florida State is 24-17 and 17-24 ATS, being overvalued in many cases and Georgia Tech is 25-17, but only 20-22 ATS with no distinguishing attributes.

The Wolfpack at N.C. State is 17-23 and .500 against the spread. We’ll have to watch if they can continue 4-0 ATS home underdog mark from last season. Boston College is 21-14 and 17-18 ATS and actually has a better SU record in there four years in the ACC compared to the previous last four years in the supposed weaker Big East.

The next three teams are long time members stuck in neutral. North Carolina is 18-22 and 20-20 ATS and Maryland is very similar at 18-22 SU & ATS. Clemson is 23-18 and 19-22 ATS and is a much better home dog than home favorite in ACC action.

Wake Forest is 20-21 SU & ATS and is dastardly 3-8 ATS as away favorite the last decade. Miami is 22-20 and 18-24 ATS in league play, sporting 4-11 ATS record in home games. Virginia is positive 21-19 and 22-18 ATS, being a solid wager at home and wobbly road team. The Dukies are ghastly 2-38 (its true), however is frequently overlooked as doormat of the ACC and is 19-21 against the oddsmakers.

It would be a pleasure to suggest a certain style of wagering in the ACC, like playing all underdogs, however the facts don’t support it. Instead, like the many roads that go thru the Carolina’s, follow the yellow signs with the wiggly picture. SLOW – Proceed with Caution.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror

It’s not panic time in New England, however things are amiss. Tom Brady is just like the rest of us, after being away from your job after major surgery, it takes awhile to get back in the flow and what you have repaired, you don’t trust 100 percent. Sure the New York Jets brought a lot of pressure, but it’s not anything Brady hasn’t seen before. Yet it was clear, he’s not willing to hang onto the ball the extra tick and has made throws the last two weeks that are un-Brady like. Tough tilt with 2-0 Atlanta next.

What’s the biggest difference in the Jets; they have a coach that believes in them. Yes, Mark Sanchez has played well, but Rex Ryan has convinced his players they are good and gives them the freedom to succeed. That never happened under ol’ happy pants Eric Mangini. By the way, how good is cornerback Derrelle Revis playing? He’s been matched up primarily against Andre Johnson and Randy Moss the last two weeks. The results – eight total catches for 59 yards.

The Green Bay Packers defense was shredded by Cincinnati. The worst part was Cedric “Boat Boy” Benson shredded them on the ground for 141 yards. Coach Mike McCarthy also had a bad game, giving up on the running game that included only 14 rush attempts by running backs in a contest that was either tied or a seven-point game for the first 58 minutes. Not giving more help to offensive tackle who was being destroyed by DE Antawan Odom (five sacks) was ludicrous. Pack at 0-2 St. Louis for first road game.

San Francisco has two division wins already and will be in the NFC West hunt. The 49ers have a defense that lacks big names other than LB Patrick Willis, but don’t be surprised if they are not in Top 10 all season. Offensively, Frank Gore is running with explosiveness again and Shaun Hill won’t make many plays to hurt them. Niners head to Minnesota where they are 0-7 ATS.

San Diego has line problems on both sides of the ball; unfortunately it looks like survival mode again for awhile near Mission Bay. Chargers have Miami on short week at home, however are 0-5 ATS vs the Fins.

Jay Cutler showed Bears fans why he could be great. Cutler hasn’t been in Chicago look enough to find chemistry with receivers, nevertheless against Pittsburgh he was patient and didn’t force plays, which ended up giving his team a chance to win at the end, which they did. Pittsburgh offense is among the many not finishing drives thus far. Chicago has rugged trip to Seattle next and are 5-1 ATS away off a SU dog win.

Did you know Oakland had more first downs (6) in game-winning drive with 2:48 left on the clock, than they had in the entire rest of the game? (5) Raiders playing hard, if not eye-pleasing, could go over .500 for the first time since beginning of 2004 season with a home win over Denver this week.

Dallas was set to secure a real rarity in the NFL until Eli Manning worked magic in two-minute drill. The Cowboys almost won despite 4-0 turnover margin against them. Tony Romo might need glasses since his peripheral vision is awful picking up defensive backs at times. Next week hosting 0-2 Carolina is no bargain for Cowboys who are 4-17-1 ATS off a home loss.

What can you say about Peyton Manning after he led his team to victory. In case you haven’t heard, the Colts only had the ball for 14 minutes and 53 seconds. That's the lowest time of possession for a winning team since the NFL began tracking that statistic in the 1970s. The Indianapolis defense was on the field for 84 plays. Now they have to travel on short week, changing three time zones to Arizona for Sunday. We’ll find out if Cards coach Ken Whisenhunt is really sharp, since it makes all the sense in the world to play hurry up offense to wear down tired Colts defensive legs.

Upon further review in college football

For all the hype about USC quarterback talent, Washington’s Jake Locker is far ahead of anything the Trojans have under center. The junior was the difference-maker along with the defense that stiffened when needed. Though USC may have Top 5 talent, this is rather unemotional bunch for a Pete Carroll team. Not enough leadership within the locker room yet.

So much for Notre Dame’s improved speed and blitzing after allowing 68 points to Michigan schools. Losing Michael Floyd will impact Irish offense again; they will need offensive line and running backs to step up. BCS berth is wishful thinking right now.

Give Iowa a chance to at least cover against Penn State this week. They have good history against the Nittany Lions (7-3 and 8-2 ATS mark) and defense will make Jo Pa’s work to score points.

Nebraska did everything but win the game at Virginia Tech. They ran for over 200 yards on 5.75 yards per carry on what is looking like over-rated Hokies squad. Kudos to Tyrod Taylor for improvisational touchdown pass, yet it’s looking more obvious all the time teams that comparable or better talented teams have a real shot to defeat Va Tech. Next up hot Miami club in Big East revival match.

California might be good enough to beat USC at home in just under two weeks. Jahvid Best is the best runner in the country. The Bears defense can attack the passer and their biggest weakness on defense is at one corner, which USC quarterbacks might not be skilled enough to attack regularly. First for Cal is important matchup in Eugene, where the Ducks are 12-2 ATS after playing a game at home over the last three seasons.

Great setting for Minnesota at home in new stadium, which will improve home field advantage dramatically.

Purdue chewed on the scheduling sandwich and was overrun by Northern Illinois 28-21 as 11.5-point home faves. The Boilermakers were off quality loss at Oregon and have home night game with rival Notre Dame next. The Huskies rushed for 280 yards at 4.9 YPC. First win over Big Ten school for NIU in 21 years. Purdue has won four of last six at home against the Fighting Irish.

Can a team that returns ONE defensive starter really be Top 20 material? It appears so with Cincinnati’s impressive 28-18 dismantling of Oregon State on the road. If the Heisman race wasn’t about all about the hype, QB Tony Pike would be in every discussion right now. Coach Brian Kelly is about to land big time job if the Bearcats finish 9-3 or 10-2 off BCS berth. The speculation starts here, Kelly to Colorado for right contract.

Quick Hitters- Georgia will need new defensive coordinator, but have to be impressed with Bulldogs win at Arkansas. The Hogs QB Ryan Mallet has a gun, but has to become better decision-maker. ---West Virginia is doomed with Bill Stewart as coach. It will close but no cigar for the Mountaineers, with some reason why they ALMOST win against similar teams. ---Reports had Colt McCoy not feeling feel, however, mechanically he’s not sound after being one of the best last season. It appears he’s trying to live up to someone’s expectations.

Study the numbers

It was a pedestrian weekend overall in college football, with underdogs 27-25 ATS and the totals split right down the middle of the 52 games played. Most sportsbooks did quite well with two public favorites BYU and Texas failing to cover. Maybe it’s a fluke, but following totals until game time is quite profitable at the moment. In games where the total has moved three or more points in one direction, betting the trend is 39-19-1, 65.5 percent on the college gridiron. (The NFL is 4-2 on moves of 2.5-points or more)

Touchdown or greater favorites in the NFL were heinous 0-3 ATS, with favorites 7-9 overall. Home underdogs were again losers at 2-3 and are 3-6 ATS on the season.

Terrific Tuesday of MLB Action

A pretty sorry day with 1-3 record, victimized by “The Sheriff” as John Gruden called Peyton Manning. The Best System was a winner yesterday and we’ll look for another that is 88.7 percent and has come up only twice this year. The Top Trend is dead perfect in an AL Central matchup. Kendall has Free Play loaded. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – After watching the Colts defense on the field for over 80 plays, how do you not play against Indy on a short week going on the road to Arizona?

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites like Colorado with a money line of -175 to -250, with a rested bullpen, which has thrown two innings or less in each of the last two games, against opponent after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings. This seldom seen system is 47-6, 88.7 percent over the last dozen years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Cleveland Indians are 0-10 after scoring four runs or less six straight games since last year and have lost these contests by 3.7 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Kendall is a start to finish baseball bettor and is just over 60 percent on the season, making himself a great deal of cash. His play today is Colorado on the run line.

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Matching Quarterbacks to ATS numbers

While scanning the internet, I came across someone talking about how they didn’t necessarily agree with an article that former NFL quarterback and current ESPN football analyst Trent Dilfer wrote about NFL quarterbacks. After doing a quick search on Google, found the article where the Dilfer broke down each NFL starting signal caller and placed them into specific categories.

If you’ve heard Dilfer on ESPN, he comes across pretty well, speaks knowledgably about most topics, however he’s not above throwing a bizarre zinger that makes absolutely no sense, which brings his credibility into question.

Articles like the one Dilfer wrote are good fodder for discussion since they are mildly controversial, yet offer interesting opinions. Taking what the former Super Bowl champion quarterback had to say and matchup it up against the realities of betting on sports, let’s see where the two worlds intersect.

Not surprisingly, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are rated as the best in nearly all facets of the game. One of the keys for both is unquestioned preparation and ability to analyze defenses and make adjustments in a split second. For the sports bettor, Brady is the preferred choice. The former Michigan man is 53-39-3 ATS as favorite. Though he and his team have gotten off to slow start, and few doubt New England won’t improve along with their quarterback. Off the loss to the Jets, Brady and the Pats are 18-7 ATS after a straight up defeat. The older Manning has never kept that same company and has unusual record. Possibly because the Indianapolis has been so dominant in winning AFC South over the years, they are overvalued by oddsmakers or these teams are just more familiar with the Colts, they can stymie them. Whatever the reasoning, Manning is 30-44-2 ATS in division games. Get him out of the division and he’s 66-48-3 ATS.

His next group down has Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. Though only two games into 2009 campaign, Brees, despite not having typical NFL quarterback stature and size requirements, is head and shoulders above the competition. The New Orleans offense looks like the Patriots of the couple of years ago and the St. Louis Rams “greatest show on turf” from the Kurt Warner years. Brees has led his team to two 40+ point totals with incredible ball distribution. Though Brees is 26-27-1 ATS in home games, he’s 35-18-4 ATS on the road, including fabulous 12-2 against the spread mark as road favorite after Sunday’s wipeout in Philadelphia.

Philip Rivers has gotten better each year as quarterback and San Diego is now his team. Though he’s a bit too much of a chatterbox, as Dilfer points out, Rivers makes the hardest throws among starting quarterbacks, since Norv Turner’s offense is more vertical, meaning throwing the ball 15-25 yards down the field and he does so with uncanny accuracy. The Chargers have offensive line and defensive issues at the moment, but Rivers and Bolts are still 18-10 ATS at home and 18-8-1 ATS when matched against a team off a loss.

Dilfer’s next batch could be rated higher by others and not many would argue. Remember when Eli Manning was too casual about playing quarterback and didn’t work as hard as his older brother? At the time, all of us weren’t aware NOBODY worked as hard as Peyton. Eli has gone on to earn his own Super Bowl ring and is adroitly moving his game up several notches working with new receivers and having success. Eli’s calm demeanor helps New York be in the right running plays and at two-minute drill time. The younger Manning and the Giants are methodical on the road with 27-12-1 ATS record.

Remember how unorthodox Brett Favre was for years, his replacement is Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has two gaudy Super Bowl rings and will likely never receive the true credit he deserves until a few years from now. He’s the best improviser at his position, and keeps plays alive most quarterbacks would just throw the ball away on. He a money-maker on a team that isn’t given the underdog role too often and he’s 14-6 ATS when catching points. Here’s two numbers to remember about Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh is 22-12 ATS with revenge and 20-9 ATS in the AFC North.

Dilfer also likes the productivity of Donovan McNabb and Matt Hasselbeck as veterans. Both have become more injury-prone in advancing years. McNabb when healthy is 45-26 ATS away from home and Hasselbeck is 28-17-2 ATS playing in coffee-town.

In his article, Dilfer calls the next group “knocking on the door”. This is primarily young quarterbacks with promise, who have to take the next step and take their teams to playoffs and start winning those games. Joe Flacco did just that, but was more a game manager than facilitator. In 2009, Flacco shows signs of progress. Matt Ryan is similar to Flacco and has the look of being able to prevent Atlanta from going backwards and making his club a Play On team. Aaron Rodgers is only 7-11 and 9-9 ATS at Green Bay, but he needs pass protection and a defense that stop somebody to take next growth step.

Tony Romo is drifting towards enigma stage. Talent-wise he’s probably Top 5, but his decision-making is horrendous in the biggest games, not unlike how he performed in Giants game this past Sunday. Yes, the Cowboys are always going to be overvalued, but to be 21-21 ATS with the amount of talent surrounding him, not acceptable.

Jay Cutler could be another breakout quarterback, if he shows maturity on and off the field. His spread numbers make most bettors pale (4-17-1 ATS as a favorite comes to mind), yet his ability is unquestioned outside a select few in Denver and if he grows with an unproven group of receivers in Chicago, it might be what he needs in the growth process.

Most of the other quarterbacks are what they are (Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner and Chad Pennington) and aren’t likely to become better without protection and talent around them. Many others like Trent Edwards, David Garrard and Shaun Hill need a solid running game to be most effective.

This is a worthwhile read especially in a league so dependent on one player in a team game. Sports bettors are wise to consider the quarterback matchup each and every game as a possible difference-maker for spread wins and losses.

Start of another work week and Winners

Officially had 1-1 day, but if you played our NFL system plays, you picked up a pair of winners also. On Monday we have MLB system that is 38-9 and trending very positive. We have two pitching trends from the same game that combine to be 17-0. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – Will be up soon

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like Baltimore when the money line is +125 to -125, with a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher who is winless after five or more starts. Over the last dozen years, this system is 38-9, 80.9 percent, including 6-1 in 2009.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Dual trend today counts for one. Wandy Rodriquez and Houston are is 9-0 in home games after a loss this season and Kyle Lohse and St. Louis are 0-8 in road games this season.

Free Football Pick -3) Ken of the LLC play has a small play on the UNDER in tonight's MNF game and has similar wager on Milwaukee tonight.

Paul Buck nailed his top play with outright winner on Oakland and has Monday Night Magic going tonight.

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Indy favored without all weaponry on Monday night

Former divisional rivals will square off on Monday night football when Miami hosts Indianapolis. The teams haven’t met since 2006 and quarterback Peyton Manning, who works and studies as diligently as any player in the game, is being thrown into an uncomfortable situation. Manning was already starting the season without one of his mainstays, Marvin Harrison, now will be without Anthony Gonzalez who replaced him in the starting lineup.

Gonzalez, will be out of the lineup for at least two weeks and as many as two months due to sprained right knee ligaments suffered last week against Jacksonville. That means Manning will be throwing to unfamiliar targets Pierre Garcon and rookie Austin Collie.

At home in the opener, the Colts thoroughly outplayed the Jaguars, outgaining them 365-228 in total yards, but won just 14-12. Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off a win and no-cover spot.

Miami’s key strength last season was ability to play mistake-free football, the question arises after going from 1-15 to 11-5 division champions in one season, are they possibly somewhere in between after turning the ball over four times last week. It should be noted the Dolphins started 0-2 last season and is 8-4 SU & 9-3 ATS against the Colts.

Indianapolis is a three-point favorite with a total of 42 at Sportsbook.com and they’ll face a Miami team that is 6-9 and awful 3-12 ATS at home during the regular season the last two seasons, which will be looking to snap a three-game SU & ATS skid in home openers. The Colts are 15-5 OVER off a close home win by three points or less and the Fins are 9-1 OVER off a road loss.

Indianapolis covers if they can force Miami to continue to make turnovers. Defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are noted for disrupting the quarterback and with an immobile target like Chad Pennington, could raise a great deal of havoc. It might be time to bag the “stretch” running play in the Colts offense. Manning seems to have a more difficult getting the ball to the backs and the offensive line hasn’t been able to sustain the blocks long enough for Joseph Addai and Donald Brown to hit the holes. The runners appear better as one-cut-and-go backs. The Indy defense will see a true “wildcat” offense for the first time and must contain whatever elements and wrinkles the Dolphins might have in store. The Colts are 9-1 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in its September road assignments and 15-8 ATS road chalk of three-points or less.

Miami covers if the offensive line establishes itself. Last week top pick T Jake Long was whipped repeatedly by Atlanta’s defense ends, in allowing two sacks and getting no push in the running game. The Colts front is better than the Falcons, meaning the Dolphins have to run the ball to set up play-action passes by Pennington and specialty packages. Miami’s back seven has to cover up Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, making Manning throw to receivers he’s unfamiliar with or dump-offs to running backs for short gains. Smack Addai early, since his enthusiasm for taking shots has waned since his rookie season. The Fins are 7-3 ATS taking on winning teams.

The matchup marks the very first Monday Night football game that was played on this exact date in 1970.

Monday Night Angles – Road favorites like the Colts are 13-3 ATS when favored by three to four points the last seven years. Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS vs. non-division opponents, while Miami is 8-3 ATS as a home dog dating back 29 years.

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Dressed for Sunday Success

We came up 1.5-points short of going 4-0 in CFB this week and instead settled for 3-1. I searched everywhere but couldn’t find a great system, but found a damn good one at 78.4 percent. The Top Trend is in division dandy and Ken off a brilliant Saturday looks to continue winning ways with his Top Play as Free Pick. Good luck

What I thought yesterday – What the hell happened to Colt McCoy, the Notre Dame defense, the USC offense, the Georgia defense, BYU and when does a team bring back ONE starter on defense start 3-0 (Cincinnati)? Special thanks to the Mangino’s for the late cover over Duke.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. This non-qualifying system is 40-11, ATS over the last 26 years at 78.4 percent and shows Kansas City and Jacksonville as the Play Against teams.

Free Football Trend -2) The Atlanta Falcons are 1-12 ATS in home games off a home win by 10 points or more

Free Football Pick -3) Ken of the LLC was perfect 6-0 yesterday and is playing Da Raaiders today with the +3.

Check out today’s Guaranteed NFL Plays.

The Platinum Sheet Forecaster was 14-2 ATS last week in NFL.

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NFL Week 2 Previews

The second week of the NFL season brings into play a number of fascinating wagering viewpoints. The Jets are talking smack, are they ready to back it up at home against New England. No quarterback is hotter than Drew Brees, look for him to see the full Philly blitz package. First place is on the line when Seattle visits San Francisco, plus two other unbeaten teams will collide in San Diego, when Baltimore pays the Chargers a visit. Pittsburgh and Chicago could easily have had different results in season opener. Look for serious helmet-paint trading in the Windy City.

New England at N.Y. Jets 1:00E CBS

The Patriots-Jets rivalry has been one of the fiercest in the NFL in recent years, and there was always no love lost between the teams in the Eric Mangini era in New York. Perhaps that could have something to do with the fact that the Patriots have won 10 straight games against the spread (9-1 SU) at the Meadowlands. New Jets head man Rex Ryan is stoking the fires in his own way by saying in a radio interview he didn't come to New York "to kiss Bill Belichick's rings." Ryan is looking to restore some home field advantage as they begin their home slate for the third straight year against their arch rivals. New York was a horrendous 1-7-1 ATS in home games vs. divisional foes under Mangini and needs this game to take command of the AFC East. New England has become well known for its divisional success, 12-1 SU & ATS in its last 13 away from home vs. its division counterparts.

Keys to the Game-

New England was lucky last Monday to win and they know. Tom Brady was understandably rusty and started to find a rhythm in the second half, just not being able to score touchdowns. Expect the Patriots to play at quicker pace to force New York to play in base defense. Though New England out-gained Buffalo by 165 total yards, the defense allowed 4.7 yards per carry, which won’t stop the Jets. The Pats are 19-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points and needs to pressure rookie Mark Sanchez into poor decisions.

The Jets have seen the tape, New England did a poor job stopping the run and off a 190-yard performance last week, OC Brian Schottenheimer will challenge Belichick’s defense man on man. Sanchez showed good poise in keeping plays alive and finding right receiver in his first start. He made a few miscues, however they were as much about being too excited, as physical errors. He must be calm and try and not force the action when the Pats pressure him, with the Jets expected to roll him out and shorten his field of vision for safer passes. Corner Darrelle Ravis took away Andre Johnson last week, if he can blanket Randy Moss, he’ll slow down Patriots offense.

Despite all the good feelings with new situation, the Flyboys are 2-13 ATS in home games in the first two weeks of the season and have to be like a boxer and knock New England out.

3DWLine – New England by 4
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -3.5, 45

New Orleans at Philadelphia 1:00E FOX

Philadelphia takes on a second straight NFC South foe when it hosts New Orleans. Expectations are high in Philly this year and the Eagles are off to a fast start, having routed Carolina 38-10 in Week 1. Perhaps minus QB Donovan McNabb (last report was doubtful), they’ll look to build on that win at home, where they were 6-2 SU & ATS in 2008. They also boast that same straight up mark (7-1 ATS) in their eight meetings with the Saints. However, head coach Andy Reid has not gotten his team’s best effort in home openers, just 4-5 SU & 4-4-1 ATS since 2000. Sean Payton’s team was expected to win and did at home versus the Lions last Sunday, but this week’s test will be much tougher. The Saints have won just two of last nine (3-5-1 ATS) true road games, allowing 26.3 points per game in that span. They are also on a 4-8 ATS slide as underdogs.

Keys to the Game-

It looks like Kevin Kolb will be the guy for the Eagles, which means three-five step drops and Kolb releasing the ball quickly. On film, New Orleans tackled poorly, thus getting the pigskin in the hands of receivers DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis is the best route to go, since both are excellent after the catch. Brian Westbook’s values goes up even higher this week, trying to carry a greater load for club that is 5-1 ATS against winning teams. Philly has dilemma how to attack this red-hot Saints offense.

Though August football doesn’t count for much, it helped establish who’s the best quarterback in the NFL right today, Drew Brees. He’s been uncanny with his full compliment of receivers and has been unflustered by what he’s seen on defense. If New Orleans can continue to run the ball they’ll move to 9-3 ATS in road openers. Safety Darren Sharper doesn’t have the range he used to, but is still a ball-hawk (two picks last week) and he’ll try and confuse Kolb on pre-snap reads that could lead to mistakes.

3DWLine – Philadelphia by 11 (based on McNabb playing)
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -1.5, 45.5

Seattle at San Francisco 4:05E FOX

Seattle and San Francisco were the big winners in last week’s NFC West duals, each winning on the road. Now, with the early lead in the standings at stake, the teams will go head-to-head on Sunday. The 49ers are a slight favorite after being outgained by Arizona on Sunday 299-203, averaging less than a yard in its 25 carries. Meanwhile, the Seahawks dominated St. Louis, winning on the scoreboard 28-0, and on the yardage total, 446-247. Seattle has been the better of these two teams in recent confrontations, going 5-2 SU & ATS in its last seven trips to San Francisco, and 8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS in last 11 games overall. Head coach Jim Mora’s team also boasts a 9-4 ATS record mark since 2007 in NFC West matchups. However, the Seahawks are just 1-9 ATS coming off a win by 10 points or more. The 49ers are unsavory 1-6 ATS as divisional hosts. This is only the second time San Francisco has been favored in this series since 2003.

Keys to the Game-

Niners QB Shaun Hill looked unglued by Arizona’s pass rush most of the game, which means Seattle will be dialing up the pressure. This could be big edge for Seahawks since Hill lacks the ability to keep a play alive when under duress. San Fran’s corners did yeomen work in containing Cardinals receivers; however TE John Carlson presents extra effort with is speed and pass catching abilities. Seattle’s defense will also try and confuse San Francisco blockers and if successful, moves to 10-0 ATS in September on the road off a division task.

San Francisco offensive coaches have to be smarter this week. They stubbornly ran between the tackles against Arizona’s run blitzes, leading to second and third and long. Spice up the game plan to include play action on early downs. The offensive line hopefully had a good week of practice, since they were slow at the snap last week. Hill and Frank Gore need some help. Matt Hasselbeck is at his best when he can throw to primary receiver. The 49ers need package that creates doubt like last week, which leads to pressure. Make Hasselbeck’s healed back sore and the Seahawks fall to 1-13 ATS off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival.

3DWLine – Seattle by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – San Francisco -1, 39.5

Baltimore at San Diego 4:15E CBS

Don’t be fooled by Baltimore’s tight contest for period of time with Kansas City, nor the fact that the Chiefs produced 24 points; the game wasn’t nearly that competitive. The Ravens outgained the Chiefs 501-188 in total yards. They’ll look to be just as dominant this week to have a shot at beating San Diego, who will be playing its home opener after weathering the storm in Oakland 24-20. Head coach John Harbaugh’s team was 8-3 ATS on the road in 2008, but could be looking to offset a crazy trend that finds them 0-7 SU & ATS in away games where the total is 38.5-42. They are also just 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in road openers since 2001. The Chargers are just 2-4 SU & ATS in their last six home season kickoffs, but 13-5 ATS as hosts over the past two seasons. Speaking of home teams, the hosts have dominated this series, going 5-1 SU & ATS.

Keys to the Game –

Baltimore’s Joe Flacco showed a great deal of progression as a field general last week. He was able to spot receivers down the field expertly and checked off properly when plays broke down. This opens up Ravens playbook and they should look to confuse San Diego defense that was pushed around by the Raiders. The Chargers are big, but not especially fast in front seven, keep them moving. LaDainian Tomlinson is likely out, which means Darren Sproles. Baltimore outside linebackers has to keep him inside the tackles. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards.

San Diego could be down two starters in the offensive line, thus look for Philip Rivers to throw underneath a lot to big physical receivers. They will occupy safety Ed Reed with Antonio Gates, clearing space. If Reed starts walking up as the eighth man in the box, watch Rivers check down to Gates on 10-15 yard sideline fades. Coach Norv Turner will use two-tight ends to help with pass protection throughout the contest. Sproles is a unique weapon, utilize him in space and run plays to see how Ravens react to where he goes on pass routes for later usage. The defense has to play with greater urgency, never really taking command of limited Oakland’s offense. They better attack Flacco if they expect to move to 12-3 ATS in home games against AFC opponents over the last three seasons.

3DWLine – SanDiego .3.5
Bookmaker.com Line – San Diego -3, 40.5

Pittsburgh at Chicago 4:15E CBS

Pittsburgh was battered and bruised in its season opener vs. Tennessee but managed to prevail in overtime 13-10. However, the Steelers face the prospects of moving on without defensive stud safety Troy Polamalu (MCL sprain) as they head to Chicago. They are just 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in road openers over the last eight seasons and on an extended three-year slid of going just 10-15 ATS on the road. Pittsburgh allowed 320 yards of offense to the Titans in the opener, more than they did in all but two games last season, so there are already reasons for concern. The Bears hope to bounce back from their defeat at Green Bay, and slow a trend that has seen them go just 2-5 ATS in openers at Soldier Field. Chicago is 6-0 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last two campaigns.

Keys to the Game-

For Chicago it’s a full plate. Hopefully a full week of practice has Jay Cutler and his receivers having a better understanding of what to do when a play breaks down. Whether it was Cutler’s fault or OC Ron Turner’s blame, Matt Forte never caught a pass in the opener, after averaging over four per game in his rookie season. Get him the ball! The Bears defensive line ate up Green Bay. Pressure Ben Roethlisberger up the gut and have hard-charging defensive ends wrap him up. Follow these principles and the Bears send home fans home happy and they move to 10-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread.

Pittsburgh is going nowhere in 2009 without establishing a better ground game, which averaged 1.6 yards per carry against Tennessee. Steelers O-linemen must sustain blocks against good Chicago D-Line, with openings more readily available without Brian Urlacher in the middle. Confusing Cutler doesn’t seem to be a real task presently (his receivers do that enough). The Steelers just need to do their usual outstanding work disguising defenses and Bears fans will be calling for Bob Avellini. The Steelers cannot let Devin Hester be a factor of any sort or they might fall to 6-18 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less.

3DWLine – Pittsburgh by 3.5

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Pittsburgh -3, 37.5

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.