AFC Title Game Info

In today’s unstable world and even shakier economy, we are being bombarded with messages about “thinking outside the box” or embracing change to whether thru the worst of times anyone has seen in decades. Yet when it comes to our sports clichés, we accept them like old tales - “feed a cold, starve a fever.” The AFC Championship game brings one of oldies but goodies that everyone from any age has heard, “It’s hard to beat the same team three times.”

Even before the end of Pittsburgh’s win over San Diego and the clock striking midnight Sunday, if you had a dollar for every time that expression was used on the various sports stations, come last Monday morning, you had enough money to eat lunch out all week and not on the dollar menu either. Even the participants were beating the drum. "It's hard to beat a team three times in a row in a season,'' Steelers cornerback Ike Taylor stated.

The next installment of the Baltimore-Pittsburgh AFC North rivalry will to be the most important meeting in the history of the series. The winner heads to warm and sunny Tampa Bay in two weeks for Super Bowl XLIII.

Pittsburgh beat Baltimore in two hard-fought; tightly contest games, by scores of 23-20 and 13-9 respectively. In both instances, the Ravens out-rushed the Steelers by a fairly generous margin (107.5 vs 80 yards), but came up short in the passing game, which could make the difference again. Ben Roethlisberger averaged 180 passing yards against Baltimore’s defense in two meetings compared to rookie Joe Flacco coming in at exactly 50 yards less at 130. Ultimately, this may once again be the deciding factor in who will represent the AFC west Florida.

The last time division rivals met in a conference championship was 1999 season, when fourth seed Tennessee traveled to Jacksonville, who was the top seed in the AFC and whipped them 33-14, completing a three-game sweep that season, which led to Super Bowl appearance.
Baltimore has had unfathomable year, winning and covering 11 of its last 13 games, thanks to a good running game, a passing game that makes just enough completions to matter and a defense that leaves black and blue marks so deep, it looks like a tattoo even weeks later. The hard hitting and ball hawking nature shows itself in the turnover margin. Since losing three in a row to start the year 2-3, Baltimore is an unimaginable +24, including a +7 differential in the playoffs.

Even having the double revenge angle, this will a difficult assignment for the Ravens. Begin with this being their 17 consecutive game, as they were forced to take unwanted bye in Week 2, no thanks to Hurricane Ike. No less than eight defensive players will appear on this week’s injury report, though all are expected to play, how well is another matter. For cliché purposes, games are won on the scoreboard, not on the stat sheet, yet in two playoff games, the Ravens have been out-gained 667-397. Nevertheless, they will arrive in the Steel City 11-2 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons.

Pittsburgh comes in as healthy as they have been all season, with Willie Parker fresh, Big Ben showing no affects of concussion and the league’s best defense as ferocious as ever. Bettors flocked to Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets, taking the Steelers from 4.5-point favorites to current six, with total of 34. The Steelers know exactly what to expect from the Ravens and understand ball protection will be tantamount. In Pittsburgh’s four losses, they had three or more turnovers in three defeats and were 13-1 and 10-4 ATS in all other games. Pittsburgh is 38-18 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

Pittsburgh is just 9-8 ATS as home favorite in the playoffs, hoping to advance to second Super Bowl in four years. The higher seed has advanced to the big game in five of the last six years (4-2 ATS) in the AFC title game, with the lone exception being a sixth seed (Pittsburgh in 2005), just like Baltimore is.

What you Need to Know

Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh have to do virtually the same thing. They both will want to run and control the line of scrimmage. This sets up play-action passing game and each will be unafraid to take deep shots down the field. Because of the similarities, the difference could be the experienced player under center.

Both defenses are menacing and will want to funnel the action towards their strengths, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis for Baltimore and James Harrison and Troy Polamalu for Pittsburgh. Will the road finally wear out the Ravens?

Key System- In the Conference Finals, Play Against any team this is an underdog, if they were an underdog in last game. (20-12 ATS)

NFC Title Game Preview

Since adopting the 12-team playoff format in 1990, the National Football Conference has been a button-down affair. Last year the fifth seeded New York Giants were the lowest seed ever to make the NFC Championship game, being the first ever to be below a three seed to do so. This year, the NFC looks like a NCAA regional basketball bracket which has been loaded with upsets, as No. 4 Arizona will play host to No. 6 Philadelphia, with the winner advancing to the Super Bowl, unfathomable.

The Arizona Cardinals in the playoffs is hard enough to believe, but playing for the right to be NFC champions, it’s time to call the Ripley’s people. Against Atlanta two weeks ago, Arizona hosted its first playoff game since moving to the desert over 20 years ago and now this!

Why do the Cardinals suddenly have better than snow balls chance in Scottsdale to win this contest, considering they lost to Philadelphia by 28 on Thanksgiving night and were wiped out at New England 47-7 less then a month ago? Start with the quarterback Kurt Warner, who raised his record to 7-2 (4-4-1 ATS) in the postseason with upset of Carolina. Warner is the wily vet this team turns to for his experience. Coach Ken Whisenhunt deserves a 20-foot cactus size amount of credit, back from his days with Pittsburgh, for knowing you have to run to win in the playoffs and letting the past go, reinserting Edgerrin James. The 71 carries the last two weeks keeps defenses from just rushing Warner to stop the Cardinals prolific passing game. One defense, Arizona now looks like, well Philadelphia and has forced a dozen turnovers in last three games, with opponents averaging just 74 yards per game rushing in this stretch. The Cardinals have this unlikely home game, where they are 7-2 and 6-3 ATS this season.

If your surprised to see Arizona here, how about the Eagles? After tying Cincinnati and being bulldozed by Baltimore 36-7, Philadelphia had a short week to prepare for Arizona for Turkey Day night game. Donovan McNabb was benched and looked finished in Philly and though the Eagles coaches would never admit it, likely the only reason McNabb was not benched against Arizona was because they could not put in offense for backup Kevin Kolb on a short week. That game became the turning point as McNabb found a rhythm and the offense started to click. Coach Andy Reid went back to basics, relying on offensive line and Brian Westbrook and started running the ball, not worrying if every running play worked. The offense gelled, McNabb’s confidence and accuracy returned and everything fell into place. The Eagles defense has been almost impregnable in last six weeks, surrendering 11 points a game.

It is back to the road favorite role for Philadelphia, with the opening line showing them as three-point favorites, just like they were in wild card win over Minnesota. Since that time, Bookmaker.com has moved them to four-point play with total of 47. The Eagles are trying to become the third team in four years to win three consecutive road games in the postseason to make it to the Super Bowl. Philly is 12-12 ATS the last four seasons as road favorites. This will be Philadelphia’s fifth appearance in the NFC title game since 2002 and they are 1-3 and 2-2 ATS. The Eagles are 19-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game.

Arizona will of course be playing the “no respect” card this week, being home underdogs, which should provide additional fuel. Since moving to Glendale, the Cardinals have enjoyed a much better home field advantage and are 3-1 SU and against the spread on the receiving end of points under Whisenhunt. They are 28-12 ATS vs. good teams outscoring opponents by six or more points per game.

No matter the outcome, history will be made, either the Cards as the lowest home seed to make the Super Bowl or the Eagles the lowest seed ever from the NFC.

What you Need to Know

For Philadelphia to win, they need to be physical with Arizona receivers, especially Larry Fitzgerald, trying to throw off timing of routes. Brian Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter, must run the ball to setup passing offense. On defense, Jim Johnson knows the way to get Warner off his game is by pressure; he will certainly try to bring the heat.

Arizona has stuffed two outstanding running teams in Atlanta and Carolina and needs the trifecta to travel to Tampa. The defensive front has been terrific and has set the table for bad throws by opposing quarterbacks. The Cards O-Line has to win first down to keep Warner out of third and long, when the Eagles will fly around on defense.

Key System- Play Against any team that knocks off the defending Super Bowl champions if their next game is not in the Super Bowl. (9-1 ATS)

Bringing on the Best for Saturday

Yesterday’s 2-1 record takes us to 19-6-1 in last 26 plays and showing one nice profit. We have a reverse perfect trend going today and the number is high enough you have to at least take a look. With all the basketball today, there is only two systems 80 percent or higher and I’ll post the best one and hope its right since I don’t personally like it. Sal from the LCC has a college play for Free in the midst of a very solid week. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON underdogs like the Clippers, revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more, being well rested team, playing only their 2nd game in five days. This system is a sweet 25-4 ATS, 86.2 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Cincinnati Bearcats are 0-12 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection is 8-3 this week in college basketball wagering and likes Michigan to knock off Ohio State. I'm playing Denver Nuggets in a scheduling spot against Orlando.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Battle of Unbeatens in ACC Action

It’s hard to remember such an important contest in the ACC, with neither Duke nor North Carolina involved. This is unquestionably the biggest game of the weekend and your casual fan might not even know the significance, matching two unbeaten teams this far into the season. It’s another stern test for Wake Forest (15-0, 7-4 ATS), traveling south to Clemson. Though, ranked number two in the polls, the Demon Deacons could put the college basketball world on notice that this team is for real.

Wake Forest a youthful bunch, nonetheless are heavy on talent with the likes of sophomore Jeff Teague, L.D. Willliams and Al-Farouq Aminu. Earlier this month they ended BYU’s 53-game home winning streak and left an impression on their competitors. "Wake Forest's speed and quickness is off the charts," BYU guard Jimmer Fredette said.

They followed that up with a convincing 94-87 win over North Carolina. In that game the overpowered the Tar Heels in the paint, outscoring them 44-30. The offense can come from many areas and they continue to be one of the most accurate shooting teams in the country at over 51 percent.

Clemson (16-0, 5-5-1 ATS) starting fast isn’t news; it’s what they do from here on that matters. Clemson is 16-0 for the second time in three seasons and a win away from tying its best-ever start set in 2006-07. That season they fell part, closing 8-11. Last year was marginally better, opening 12-1 and finishing 24-10, making the NCAA Tournament for the first time in a decade.
“We’re just playing ball. We’re just playing like we’re having fun,” said senior K.C. Rivers. “We’re enjoying what we do like before we were ranked, so we’re going to continue to do that.”

As compared to previous Tigers' teams, this group might be able to handle prosperity, with senior leaders Rivers and center Raymond Sykes. If guard play is the most important aspect of college basketball, the edge has to go Demontez Stitt and Terrence Oglesby of Clemson. Each brings a unique talent and they work together in harmony for a team that is 35-16 ATS when they score 75 to 80 points in a game.

Bookmaker.com has established Clemson as 2.5-point home favorites.

This will be Clemson’s first game against a ranked opponent and the Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Tigers are also 1-34 against Top 5 foes over the last 12 seasons, including 17 straight losses.

Wake Forest has enjoyed success at Clemson with 8-2 ATS mark and six outright triumphs.

This game will be televised regionally on ABC starting at 3:30 Eastern.

The Winners continue at 3Daily Winners

A delightful 2-1 Thursday raises streak to 17-5-1. I found this interesting NBA website that deals with many facets of players and team stats. It has its own version of power ratings per se and I’ll track it for awhile and see how it does before recommending. Based on their rating they have a boatful of games tonight and here are differentials as compared to spread.

Atlanta by 8, Orlando by 1
Milwaukee by 10, Utah by 8.5
Detroit by 8, Toronto Pick
New York by 4.5

I’m just taking raw data, not looking at home court edges.

The Orlando Magic in an article listed below is the best ATS team in the NBA and are a perfect fit for a Top Trend. Today’s Best System is killer (not in the morbid sense), having deliver 24 of 28 winners. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) Play the OVER on road teams like Minnesota, where the total is greater than or equal to 210, after a close loss by three points or less against opponent like Phoenix, after scoring 100 points or more three straight games. This system is 24-4, 85.7 percent, including 2-0 this year.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Orlando is 10-0 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 99 or more points per game this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) I'll chime today since I'm as hot as anybody in the NBA being #1 at The Sports Eye monitor and give Philadelphia as best bet to upset the Spurs.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Betting the Best in the NBA

Recently had a discussion with a fellow NBA sports bettor, touching on the variety of different ways of looking at games and situations to find the best way to show a profit. This is a hard sport to grind out wins anyways and if you are resistant to change, you are doomed for failure betting this sport.

Part of our talk was whether it was really a good idea to bet on the best teams in the NBA. We discussed the number of points oddsmakers would add on popular or winning teams, thus eliminating any value. Though we were both in agreement, when one of these teams is hot, it is ridiculous to be on the sidelines watching a top level club roll up five or more spread covers, waiting for them to lose.

After getting off the phone, the thought occurred, what about tracking the spread records of NBA teams based on opponent’s performance. In looking at the standings, I broke the winning percentages down into three categories:

61 percent or high (Good Teams)
40 to 60 percent (Average Teams)
39 percent or lower (Bad Teams)

What I was looking for is how the best teams in the NBA played against various levels of competition against the spread. Ideally, my first thought was to find the opposing team’s record at the time of game played, to have a static method of reviewing them. Not being able to find such numbers without going game by game, cross-referencing each contest, decided to use current standings, which ultimately is likely a better barometer, since all teams go through hot and cold spells. This does create a moving target of sorts as teams could move from one category to the next, altering records. In the end, based on complete schedule, it would all work out.

The Orlando Magic at the moment have the best spread record in the NBA at 27-12 ATS. Despite having the third-best overall record in the NBA at 31-8, they have not receiving much publicity, with the Lakers, Boston and LeBron James and Cleveland dominating most of the headlines. What is impressive about the Magic’s season is how consistent they have been against teams from all levels against the spread.

6-3 ATS - 61 percent or high
10-6 ATS - 40 to 60 percent
10-4 ATS - 39 percent or lower

The Cleveland Cavaliers have the best record in the league at 30-7 and second best mark versus the number at 26-11. The Cavs have been crushing bad teams with 10-3 ATS record and are 11-7 ATS against average or mid-level teams. What stands out is how few games they have played against the best competition. Cleveland have only had five games against teams with 61 percent or higher win percentage (4-1 ATS) and though they have done very well, it will be intriguing to watch what they do going forward.

The Boston Celtics had a recent dry spell in losing six of eight, yet have not been as domineering as last season as champs. Boston is .500 facing teams from the top two tiers and 8-7 ATS versus the poorer teams in the NBA, hardly a good wager.

The majority of better teams continue to be in the Western Conference, but that also means more wars to have to fight thru. The Los Angeles Lakers have the top record in their conference at 31-7 and continue to have oddsmakers pile numbers on them, which is why they are 18-20 ATS. The Lakers level of interest on nightly basis shows up in this exercise. When facing top competitors that can bring out the best in them, L.A. is 7-4 ATS. When playing ordinary clubs they are 8-7 ATS, however the dullards of the NBA bore the Lakers and it shows with 4-10 spread mark if they take on teams with 39 percent or lower win percentage.

Though San Antonio defeated the Lakers the other night, they at this point of the season are no longer an elite club. Before giving the current results, I’ll throw out the caveat of not having full team together early and Manu Ginobili still doesn’t look like the same player of a few years ago (my guess is he never will be) which has hurt the Spurs. Nevertheless, a 2-8 ATS mark against the best the NBA has to offer is more Memphis-like than San Antonio. Where the Spurs have done their best work is cleaning up on the bottom of the barrel with 10-4 ATS record versus bad teams.

Though Denver and New Orleans are still very solid clubs, they have deficiencies. The Nuggets are 6-8 ATS playing top tier teams and New Orleans is finding being the hunted, rather than the hunter much more challenging at 16-18-1 ATS overall and 7-8 ATS taking on the best.

These figures will change as the season moves along, yet is a good method to follow David Stern’s moneymakers, when taking on NBA teams of all abilities.

Colossal NBA Friday Double-Dipper

Every now and again the scheduling of NBA games to be televised works out to perfection. The best teams come together and the players and the fans really are charged up for a big ball game, instead looking like a half-eaten burrito the next morning, which a lot of NBA games do. With most of the people in the country having to run outside every hour to start their cars because of the frigid weather, tonight might be a great evening to order out a pizza (tip the driver well for driving in this weather), do a little cha-ching business with your man and enjoy a great double-header on the World Wide Leader in Sports.

New Orleans at Cleveland

The Cavaliers lost in overtime to Chicago last night and will be short-handed, literally for tonight’s important contest. Starting guard Delonte West broke his right wrist in a violent collision with Chicago’s Derrick Rose and will be out an undetermined amount of time. The Cavs were already without center Zydrunas Ilgauskas (broken ankle) and Ben Wallace did not play last night due to intestinal flu. LeBron James is fighting a cold and had likely his worst game of the season last night shooting 8 of 28 and committing eight turnovers.

All of these elements are coming together at the wrong time for Cleveland. The Cavs (30-7, 26-11 ATS) have taken full advantage of a soft schedule in the first half of the season, but unlike the Cleveland weather, things are about to heat up for them. After tonight’s matchup with the talented Hornets, they embark on four-game West swing, playing in unfriendly outposts like Portland, Utah and that team in the Gold and Purple uniforms in L.A. Before Ground Hogs Day, LeBron and whoever else is standing also play in Orlando and Detroit. Yikes!

But as all good coaches tell their players, “Focus on tonight”, which is what Cleveland has to do. One edge they have is Quicken Loans Arena, where coach Mike Brown’s team has yet to taste defeat with 19-0 record. Not many squeakers either for the Cavs who are 15-4 ATS at home, winning by gargantuan 16.5 points per game.

The Cavs could use the quickness of West to help slow down Chris Paul, who nearly had a quadruple-double against Dallas in victory two days ago. New Orleans (23-12, 16-18-1 ATS) has alternated wins and losses in last six contests and is 11-7 (8-9 ATS) on the road. The problem here for the Hornets is playing quality competition on the road, as they are only 5-12-1 ATS if opponent has winning home record.

Bookmaker.com has lowered Cleveland down to four-point favorites because of injuries, though the total has remained stable at 185.5. New Orleans is looking to catch fire like this time a year ago, as the Hornets are 16-5 ATS in January the last two campaigns. New Orleans is 17-5 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points and Cleveland is 16-3 UNDER off a loss against a division rival.

This is the opener on ESPN starting just after 8 Eastern, with the Cavs 11-1 ATS off a SU loss.

Orlando at L.A. Lakers

As good as the first matchup appears, it looks like ground chuck to this thick-cut porterhouse between Orlando and the Lakers. The Lakers (31-7, 18-20 ATS) lead the NBA in scoring at 107.8 points a game and have a glittering 20-2 home record (10-12 ATS). Los Angeles has become known to play to the level of competition this season, accounting for lousy spread record, but will have no problem getting up for Superman and his bombardiers.

Dwight Howard was mostly a spectator as Orlando (31-8, 27-12 ATS) drained a NBA record 23 3-pointers in win over Sacramento on the road Tuesday. It’s not magic the Magic lead the NBA is three point shots made, averaging over 10 a game on sharp 40.1 percent accuracy. This opens up the middle for Howard to wreak havoc and Orlando is on 14-2 run, including five in a row. The Magic are the best bet in the NBA and are superb 15-5 SU and ATS on the road.

The Lakers suffered a cruel loss at San Antonio in the final seconds, but got the cover and are 6-2 ATS facing a team with a winning record. The biggest task for Phil Jackson to do is encourage his team to play better defense, since they have allowed 109.6 points a game in last six outings and are 2-11 ATS in home games after allowing 100 points or more three straight games.

Kobe and company are four-point favorites, with total of 213.5. Orlando is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog this season a perfect 10-0 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 99 or more points a game this year. The total could be hard call with Andrew Bynum emerging as a force in recent games and the Lakers 8-0 OVER in home games after allowing 105 points or more. The Magic are 15-6 UNDER after surrendering 100 points or more in their previous game.

This very intriguing East-West encounter will start immediately after the earlier meeting. You should know the Magic are 8-0 ATS playing second game in five days, while the guys from La-La land are 3-11 ATS with one day between contests.

Effects of Blowing Leads in the NBA

When I was a freshman at the University of Kansas, one day while gazing out my dorm window trying to decide whether I was going to my chemistry lab, I saw a group of guys running around like they were playing tackle football without any pads on in a football field behind the dorm.

When it dawned on me they were playing rugby, I went down to investigate. During a break, I spoke with the head guy and ended up signing up to play on the University of Kansas Rugby Club. We weren’t officially sponsored by the school but we did get enough money to buy a year’s supply of balls. We mainly played other schools or clubs in the Midwest and had to drive ourselves to the games. The parties after the games made up for the not-so-exciting drives to Nebraska or Iowa looking at fields of corn in full bloom.

We had a match in Des Moines against Drake. Drake wasn’t a very good squad and we had a sizable lead at halftime, around 20 points or so. A win would keep us tied with the Kansas City Blues Club for first place in the league. Don’t know what happened, maybe the Drake coach gave his team the “ol’ Knute Rockne” at halftime, but we came out flat in the second half and ended up losing the match. We were stunned.

Our next match the following week was against the KC Blues, the #1 team. Before the match started, we were still talking about how we had blown it at Drake and we couldn’t let that happen again. We didn’t need to worry about that as we were the club down by 20+ at break. We didn’t rally, we lost.

Was our team typical of other squads who have blown a big lead in the previous contest? Is a team so concerned about their previous poor performance they fail to focus on the match at hand? Or perhaps in our case, we were just worried on whether we had enough Newcastle for the party after the match? How do NBA players handle blowing a lead and losing the game?
I started looking at games since the beginning of the 2005 season where a team was ahead by 15 points or more at halftime and lost the game. There wasn’t a large enough sample size so I cut it back to a 10 point lead at halftime. We had some results worth noting.

If the game was on the road after the bad loss, the team who blew the lead saw their next game go Under the total 60% of the time, 60-40. If our team is a dog in that road game, they are 49-32 ATS, 60.5%, after the blown lead beat. And if our road dog doesn’t have any rest, they are going Under the total 78.6% of the time.

I like to add different variables to try to find some real sweet spots for wagering. One that I like to use is how good teams perform in certain situations as compared to bad teams. Would a team with a winning percentage over 60% bounce back stronger in their next game after blowing a 10+ halftime lead than a low-quality squad, one with less than a 40% winning percentage?

Logic would say the better team, the playoff contender, has the greater potential to give a good showing in this situation as compared to a team with probably not too much hope on making it to the post-season. Well, that logic is incorrect as our good team only covers the point spread 51.4% of the time after blowing that halftime margin as compared to our bad team who beats the number at a 67.2% clip, 41-20. Sometimes handicapping requires you to be illogical in order to cash some tickets. A profitable trend the good team did have was a 75% Over frequency if the follow-up game was being played at home.

How about just the opposite situation where a team is down by double-digits at half and rallies to win the game? Are there any type of situations that give us a betting edge?

I had to dig a little deeper, but I did find a trend that is a nice winner to play against the comeback team in their next game. If that team’s opponent was a divisional squad in the first game, then it is a 70% trend to play against the comeback winner in their next game. Obviously, rallying to beat a divisional foe gives a team a “hangover” that takes awhile to recover from.

Giving my hand at trying to use logic in handicapping, I assumed a bad team, below 40%, who rallied from a double-digit deficit at halftime to win the game would have more of a letdown in their next game compared to a 60%+ winning team. This time my logic was correct. Our bad team, one with a 40% or lower winning percentage, who rallied in their previous game covered the point spread only 40.5% of the time in that next game. They also failed to play very good defense and maybe even had a little more run and gun attitude as their follow-up games went Over the total 64.7% of the time.

Trying to stay on a roll using logic, I hypothesized (that’s a word I used a lot in chem lab at KU) that teams who came from behind would post poorer results against non-conference teams in their next game versus playing conference teams. After all, conference games, in theory, mean more to a team than non-con ones do.

Unfortunately, my hypothesis was wrong. There was no noticeable difference between playing conference or non-conference teams against the spread after a team put their rally caps on. However, there was a significant difference in the results in playing the Over/Under. Nothing worthwhile with conference games but in non-con action, if that follow-up game was on the road for our winning team, the Under put money in your pocket 68.7% of the time while home non-conference games went Over the lined total at a 61.1% pace.

I recently ran across a Super Situation on the StatFox FoxSheets that involved a team with a 20-point or more lead at halftime in their previous game playing against a team that had scored 60 or more points in the first half of their prior contest. This super-winning angle was 25-8, 75.8%, Under the total the past three years.

Instead of limiting our lead to one at halftime, let’s look at how teams do in their next game after coming back from a huge deficit in a game. It has happened sixty times over the past three seasons when a team has won a game after falling behind by 20 points or more. In their next game, they have an ATS mark of 37-23, 61.7%. If they also happen to be a home favorite, that mark moves up to 13-5, 72.2%.

I realize some of these situations are difficult to always be on top of unless you follow the NBA rather closely. So, let’s look at one that is pretty easy to follow. We start with teams that give up 103 or more points per game on average this season. The play is on the Over if one of these teams was down by 15 points or more at halftime in their previous game and now they are favored in their next game. It doesn’t matter where the game is being played or whether our team won or lost the previous game. The record for this play is a hot 80%, 36-9, over the previous three seasons.

It’s time to start paying attention to margins at halftimes.


Jim Kruger's rugby days drove him to sports betting.

Wheeling, Dealing and Wagering on Jan. 15

We had a ridiculous 1-1-1 day, as West Virginia gave cover away late after having big lead and Michigan State missed three free throws in last 22 seconds to give us Push. (Gnashing teeth) That places us 15-4-1 record in last 20 plays and we’ll trot out a system that we used before in college basketball wagering that is up to 87.5 percent. Its hockey time for today’s Top Trend. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams like Delaware where the line is +3 to -3, off a close road loss by three points or less, with a winning percentage of between 40-49 percent on the season. Used this earlier as a play for a winner and adjusted record is 28-4 ATS, 87.5 percent.

Free Hockey Trend -2) Boston Bruins are 18-2 against the money line against poor defensive teams surrendering 29 or more shots on goal and teams like the Bruins convert on 17 percent or higher on power plays.

Free Basketball Selection -3) A member of the Left Coast Connection raised his record even higher to 20-5-1 in college basketball, finding the right favorites and he is betting Niagara will take his record to greater heights.

The Importance of Offensive Efficiency in College Hoops

While in college, I got a job as a cave guide one summer at a regional theme park, Silver Dollar City, in Branson, MO. It is based on an 1880’s Ozark Mountain village and was built around a large cave that originally was believed would be a great source of marble. Marble was never found in the cave but a St. Louis entrepreneur, Henry T. Blow (real name, honest), made a fortune mining bat guano in the cave and changed its name from Marble Cave to Marvel Cave. I quickly learned how to get a group of 60 people through the cave in our allotted one-hour time frame. After about a week of being sincere and passionate answering tourists’ questions extensively, I became jaded. It was hard to tolerate people continuously asking me “how long did it take to dig this cave” and “what would we do if an earthquake hit?” I discovered working in a theme park produced an “us against the tourist” mentality rather quickly.

Instead of talking about nature’s underground springs, I told people the water coming down the wall in the cave was from a leak in the bathroom above. Kids learned from me it was okay to lick stalactites and that they tasted like lemonade.

You can only imagine the other ideas came up with, yes, I was a terrible cave guide. But, more importantly, I was an efficient cave guide. I got people through the cave and I made every moment count. I walked while answering questions so people had to walk with me. Not to waste time, I used a catchy phrase, “as the mites go up, the tights go down”, to explain the differences between stalactites and stalagmites. I didn’t lose tourists wandering away from the tour. Lemmings, and tourists, like to keep moving and don’t enjoy being enclosed in small areas.

Just like in giving cave tours, efficiency is very important in college basketball. Basically, efficiency is accomplishing something with a minimum expenditure of time and effort.

Offensive efficiency is a much better method of measuring how good a team is on offense rather than just looking at how many points they score in a game. A team’s offensive efficiency is simply the points they score per 100 offensive possessions. A team who plays at a very fast pace might score a lot of points but not be very efficient offensively.

A perfect example of this is Georgia Tech this year. The Yellow Jackets play at the 16th fastest pace in the country, 73.3. This number represents the average number of possessions Georgia Tech gets in a game this season. They are averaging 74.1 points per game, a pretty respectable number. However, their offensive efficiency rating, adjusted for added weight of recent games, strength of opponent’s played, and game locations, is only 99.2. That number means Georgia Tech does not average one point per possession.

Compare this to Niagara who plays at a slower pace, 71.7, but has a considerably better OE rating of 108.5. Even with a slower tempo, the Purple Aces average 5.8 points per game more than the Techsters. Georgia Tech is 4-8 ATS, Niagara is 12-5.

One of the greatest advantages a handicapper can attain is when he has spotted a team turning it around. That can be a team getting better or a team getting worse.

Teams with first-year coaches can take a number of games to learn the new systems. Learning a new offense or playing a different style of defense is a task that improves with experience. New players are becoming acclimated to each other and are performing more like a team instead of five individuals. Sometimes mid-season transfers, previously injured players, or formerly academically suspended players are now able to play.

Many positive turnarounds happen during the end of the year holidays when students aren’t in class and there are no rules for how long a team can practice in one day. Most teams are playing limited games during this span so the players practically live in the gym. Without class and most students not around, distractions are limited.

By paying attention to the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings on a game-by-game basis, sometimes a turnaround can be spotted before the oddsmaker notices it and adjusts the lines accordingly. This gives the cognizant capper an advantage and he can find extra value in some games.

UNC-Greensboro of the Southern Conference has one of the worst offensive efficiency ratings in the country. Incidentally, the national average for the 344 Division 1 schools is 100.2. Excluding a game against NAIA Webber International University, in 10 games, the Spartans had not achieved higher than a 94.4 offensive efficiency rating in a game. Their highest point total for any game was 62 points even though they had a middle-of-the-pack pace rating of 67.1. Their straight-up record was 2-10 and a dismal 1-8 ATS.

In a road conference game on January 8th, UNC-Greensboro was a 16-point underdog to Western Carolina. They lost to a good Western Carolina squad by only five points. What was most impressive was a 113.0 OE rating the Spartans achieved.

Their next game two days later was at Appalachian St. as a 13.5 point dog. UNC-Greensboro won in overtime shooting over 50% for the first time this season and even bested their previous game’s OE with a 117.7 rating. These two games improved their OE rating from 336th 82.3 to their current #316, 88.6.

What is happening in Greensboro? First, freshman 6-7 F Damian Eargle was inserted into the starting line-up playing the most minutes for him of the season and scoring 25 points in their win. Turnovers were also cut by ten below their seasonal average.

Second, this looks like a team coming together. One of the school’s greatest players of all time, two-time SoCon Player of the Year, Kyle Hines, used up his eligibility last year. Hines was everything to this team last season scoring 19.1 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 95 blocks, and making all-conference four years in a row. Add the loss of two other starters, your second leading scorer and top two assist men, and you get a team close to starting from scratch.

While it is very possible the Spartans have a letdown in their next game after their overtime upset, UNC-Greensboro is going to be a team I keep my eye on.

Everybody always loves systems. Systems seem to be a short-cut to having to do the extra research and work in handicapping a game. But, the bottom line is winning and it really doesn’t matter how you got there. What sports bettor wouldn’t love to have a child that could pick winners at the blazing success rate Homer Simpson had in his daughter Lisa a few years ago in that classic episode. (Well, by my standards it was a classic)

While this isn’t a system for blindly picking teams, it is a guideline you can use for helping you select winners in college hoops. The basic premise is to only play on the team that has an adjusted offensive efficiency rating four points or higher than their opponent. There are system exclusions such as don’t play on double-digit favorites no matter what the difference in OE ratings are. There are a number of other school-specific exclusions such as don’t play against Bradley or Nebraska at home.

It is a good way to help narrow large cards down. This does not mean you should ignore schools that don’t have at least a four-point differential. By watching teams’ offensive efficiency ratings It helps keep you in tune with how schools are doing and not judge them by how many points they score. You will realize quickly you usually don’t want to lay a number of points on a team that has a low OE. Low OE teams can go on scoring droughts due to excessive turnovers, poor shooting, not getting to the free throw line very often, and having a poor FT%. For totals players, squads with a poor OE rating are ones you want to consider putting on your Under list.

Paying close attention to teams offensive efficiency ratings will help your handicapping in a number of ways. Just don’t ask a cave guide what OE ratings mean.

Note - These ratings are at http://www.kenpom.com/.

Jim Kruger is the main man behind Vegas Sports Authority.

Get it While it's Hot Action

Our favorite kind of day 3-0, raises our record to 14-3 in rated plays. We have a Top Trend I was not aware of on big name coach in a special situation that has never lost. A hot college hoops bettor will attempt to keep it going and checks in on a Big Ten tilt. An interesting system is ready and loaded with a 33-8 ATS history. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, like Mississippi State, after going under the total by more than 18 points in two consecutive games, having win percentage of 60 to 80 percent, playing a team with a winning record like Alabama. This college hoops nugget is 33-8 ATS, 80.5 percent the last 11 years, including 2-0 this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Bob Huggins coached teams are 11-0 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more in all games he has coached since 1997.

Free Basketball Selection -3) A member of the Left Coast Connection raised his record to 17-4 in college basketball finding the right favorites of late and is riding Michigan State after yesterday’s winner.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Taking Home the Money College Basketball Totals

For many sports bettors, college basketball totals take on Forrest Gump-ish quality, as they are like a box of chocolates, but after studying all the sides most days, it’s hard to choose which games to play. Many sports bettors are more comfortable staying within the realm of what they know, which seldom includes college basketball totals.

Oddsmakers also are not as comfortable putting out totals on these games, as you will notice they usually arrive mid-morning on the day of the games, after releasing the side action in the late afternoon the day before. There is a good reason for this; “sharps” know the best value in college basketball wagering is on totals, because that is where the most potential errors can occur, especially on deep, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday cards. Those setting the numbers want to limit their exposure to these players, reducing the time they can cherry pick miscues, thus protecting themselves as best they.

How can somebody be successful betting college totals, you have to be ready to stay away from the glimmer of the big conferences, focus your attention on the smaller leagues, where these types of teams are more likely to pop up and oddsmakers pay lesser attention to, since they are wagered on accordingly. Here is a look at some of the very best teams every college basketball bettor should be looking at. (The focus will be on teams that have played more than half the games with a posted total)

For those who prefer to play Over the total, Ohio U (8-6, 6-5 ATS) is about as good as you could want with 7-2-1 mark. It’s a fairly remarkable team without much size or a bench, playing primarily in a league not known for scoring, yet is climbing over the total. Most of their winning numbers have come out of MAC play, thus it is worth watching to notice if the Bobcats can keep on delivering in conference action.

The Manhattan Jaspers (9-7, 5-5 ATS) out of the MAAC are 7-2 OVER, after winning just 12 games last season. It appears oddsmakers have been slow to adjust, since Manhattan has been the talk of the conference as an immensely improved team. What impresses people is how hard they play and even in defeat, they keep playing the whole 40 minutes, giving total players a chance. Off a loss the Jaspers are 4-1 Over.

LaSalle (8-6, 4-4-1 ATS) is part of the “Big 5” universities in Philadelphia area and has been a moneymaker for those watching totals with 7-2 mark, favoring the higher numbers. The Explorers defense is run of the mill, allowing 69.2 points per game on 42.4 percent. Offensively they do a good job, in scoring 72.5 points per game and averaging better than 10 offensive rebounds a contest, which helps push them Over the total. Like Manhattan, LaSalle has been a solid play off a loss at 4-0 Over, scoring 77 PPG.

One team that is no stranger to total players is Long Beach State. The 49ers (9-7, 10-6 ATS) have changed coaches from their 90+ point days, yet are still leaping over numbers 75 percent of the time with a 9-3 Over mark. L.B. State still moves the ball up and down the floor in averaging 72. 4 points an outing, but where they really are a good play is the utter of lack defense they don’t play, particularly on the road where they give up 75.8 PPG. When the 49ers travel to a team that has even a semblance of offense, the Over has to be the play.

On the other end of the spectrum is the dark side, where supposedly only those in the know play totals on the Under. Handicappers and linemakers have been selling us for years about “squares” only being on the Over and while some validity still holds true to that belief, the marketplace is far more knowledgeable, with greater access to information, making that point less trustworthy then in the past.

Any basketball bettor knows Utah State (15-1, 7-4 ATS) is a perennial player in the WAC title chase and makes frequent visits to the Top 25. The Aggies play stingy defense (59.6 PPG) and take their time on offense under coach Stew Morrill, always looking for a high percentage shot. Utah State’s effective controlled style, bothers opposing teams and the Aggies at 9-2 UNDER is not a shocker for interested bettors.

San Diego is know for its beautiful year round climate, seldom too hot or too cold and this basketball season is known for having two schools that favor one side of the totals action. San Diego State returned five starters and the results have been even better than expected with 12-3 mark (8-4 ATS). This veteran Aztec club does not have a player taller than 6’8, nonetheless, they can bang in the paint with taller opponents and play solid help-position defense that forces teams to connect from the perimeter. Opposing squads are only at 40.9 percent against coach Steve Fisher’s team, scoring 55.7 PPG. The Aztecs are a cash-machine 8-2 UNDER.

Not far away is the San Diego University campus and the Toreros are right in the same area as their counterparts at 11-3 UNDER. San Diego (10-7, 8-6 ATS) was believed to be a contender in the West Coast Conference, but they lost three key components in all-conference guard Brandon Johnson (for the season), plus Trumaine Johnson and De'Jon Jackson have only recently returned. The offense really suffered without this trio, with San Diego starting 4-6. With the latter Johnson back with Jackson, all-WCC performer Gyno Pomare has stepped up his scoring and the Toreros offense is a threat again. Their defense still playing well, suggesting the Under’s should keep on coming.

Following and playing totals does take time and effort, yet knowing where to start with the correct teams can be profitable right from the outset.

Tuesday's Top Plays and Keyshawn Johnson Thoughts

The winning continues with 2-1 record, taking us to 11-3 in rated plays. Yesterday’s system was so good on the total it still covered officially ( by half point), even after 26 points were scored in overtime. Today’s attention turns towards the college game with a System that has not come up this season, but its history is 85.1 percent winners. We have a hot gambler who is releasing his favorite play today for Free. We have a top notch NHL angle that is 10-0 this year. Good Luck.

What is the deal with Keyshawn Johnson on ESPN? Is he trying to get quoted all the time now? Back in week 16, he wondered aloud how Brett Favre suddenly had a bum shoulder and was bringing it up when the Jets were going in the tank as opposed to when they were playing well. Last week Johnson mentioned Ben Roethlisberger is somewhat of a tough guy but everybody knows he’s bit of a prima-donna. Are you kidding me! Isn’t this the same guy John Gruden could barely stand in Tampa Bay with his gums flapping about getting more catches, even when they were on the way to winning a Super Bowl? Not one season later, Gruden and the Bucs sent Johnson home, not because of injury, just so they could get this clown out of the locker room from being an even bigger distraction. Now he’s calling out players! I’ll say this; he’s got “onions” (Bill Rafferty reference) and a highly selective memory.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like TCU, who are a good shooting team (45-47.5 percent) against an excellent defensive team like BYU that holds opponents to under 40 percent shooting, and are a good ball handling team (14.5 or less turnovers) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-17.5 turnovers) after 15 or more games on the season. This is the first time this system has come up and all year and it is 23-4 ATS in the past.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Tampa Bay Lightning are 0-10 against the money line against opponents who average a total of less than four power plays per game this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) A member of the LCC who prefers a low profile has been on great run playing college hoops. His specialty is identifying favorites that cover and is 14-3 since last Wednesday. His favorite play for Tuesday is Bradley as a short road favorite.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror - NFL Playoffs

While this year’s NFL postseason tournament more resembles a NCAA basketball tournament bracket, with the vast number of upsets and top seeds going down in a heap, a few reliable formulas are still working as we head towards the Conference championships and the Super Bowl.

The Basics

Thus far home teams are taking on the chin, despite the raucous crowd support these teams enjoy. Homers are 3-5 SU and against the spread, having been placed in the role of favorites a rare five times in eight games. (Fewest in eight years) As favorites, these home teams are 2-3 ATS. Though weather was more a factor for the division games, the Under has been a solid 6-2 to this point, tying the most in three years, when we also had a sixth seed (Pittsburgh) in the conference finals. In the last five years of the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Under is 25-15. For what it’s worth, the Over is 6-2 the last four years in conference championships, more coming this week?

Turnovers

There are two tried principles every sports bettor’s wish they had the Magic 8-ball for to determine the outcome of playoff games. Every year we hear about how turnovers will determine the outcome of games and this year is no different. The eight winners are a +16 this far, with only San Diego’s win over Indianapolis being the surprise of sorts having a -2 turnover margin. Teams with that edge are 6-1 ATS with one game having the same amount of turnovers.
Turnovers, especially fumbles, are considered random events by most sports handicappers; however they are magnified in the playoffs, with emotions at such a fevered pitch. Turnovers seemingly create such an extreme response when it comes to the players, being sky high when they go in a teams favor and an almost ashen-look on the faces of the players of the team that turned it over. The unpredictable nature of a Chad Pennington throwing seven interceptions all year and following that up with four picks in loss to Baltimore is mind-boggling. Or Tennessee out-gaining the Ravens 391-211 in total yards, having the ball for over 34 minutes, yet committing three turnovers, two as fumbles (eight during the regular season) costing them a chance at victory. Determine the winner of turnover battle, that’s your winner.

Quarterbacks

The NFL is known as quarterback league and though any defense will influence how a signal caller will play over four quarters, their impact on any given game is immense. In the wild card games, Kurt Warner and Donovan McNabb out-performed their counterparts in leading their teams to victory. Baltimore’s Joe Flacco didn’t outplay either of his two opponents per se; however he made a few key plays in each game and didn’t make the big mistake. Carolina’s Jake Delhomme was crestfallen with his performance against Arizona and he should have been in throwing five interceptions.

Besides Delhomme’s meltdown, the game that signified the importance of quarterback play was Philadelphia and the Giants. Eli Manning was having a terrible time throwing the ball into the wind, tossing several knuckle-baller Tim Wakefield would have been proud of. Manning’s troubles weren’t just against the wind, as he overthrew open receivers or missed the target by a foot or more on slant routes that demand precision. Remember, Manning until last year’s late season run was known for poor mechanics. McNabb had no such issues, throwing tight spirals all day, with his only problems being on short touch passes into the wind that demanded loft, not velocity, throwing the pigskin off course. Both defenses played great games, but in the end, McNabb ability to make plays and Manning’s equal inability to not so was the difference. Expect this to influence this week’s conference championships as well.

Running the Ball

Being able to run the ball, not necessarily for a ton of yards, but to have attempts that keep a defense honest, is another important factor in winning playoff games. While detractors will point to the passing game that sets up victory in many cases to allow teams to run the ball late in games, the recent success of Philadelphia and Arizona, two teams known for throwing the ball, have found greater success with offensive balance. The team with the most rushing attempts is 6-2 SU and ATS in this year’s playoffs. The average difference in carries for the winning team is 32.6 to 23.7 per game.

Stopping the Run

Here’s a thought-provoking question, how many times have you heard a coach or player say, we have to stop the run of the opposing team? The answer is most of the time and there is good reason for it. Being run on is defensively demoralizing. When a team is passing the ball, certain elements have to come together, the receiver has to get open and run the correct route. The quarterback has to have protection and deliver the ball on time and accurately. If any of those things don’t happen, a pass can be incomplete. The running game is simpler, it’s about blocking and tackling and the runner hitting the hole. Certainly their can be similar breakdowns that destroy plays, yet stopping the opponent from running makes them one dimensional and easier to defend. As fellow StatFox cohort Steve found, teams that allow the fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season has always been a solid wager and this season is incredible 7-1 ATS. (See Platinum Sheet for other unique info) This week that favors the teams from the Keystone State, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

What's on Wagering Notice for Monday-Keep Reading

With two more winners yesterday, we are 9-2 the last week and the LCC has been handing out winners like candy with their consensus plays. Today they have a NBA selection for Free and our Best System looks at the very same game, but from the totals perspective. Today’s Top Trend checks in on a college basketball team plays against the spread with minimal rest. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY UNDER on road teams like Oklahoma City where the total is greater than or equal to 200, after having covered three of their last four against the spread and playing their 5th game in a week. The results are 22-5, 81.5 percent the last five years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Davidson is 13-3 ATS when playing with one or less days rest over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus is making the right calls and has five players on New Jersey with nobody on the other side.


Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Big Monday Opener on ESPN

It might be possible Louisville is hitting its stride, after a topsy-turvy December. The Cardinals swept a pair of Big East road games at South Florida and Villanova, covering the spread in each instance. In both cases, Rick Pitino’s club showed courage, taking opponents best shot late and found a way to hang in their. After playing in a real defensive grinder against ‘Nova, the high octane Fighting Irish, with reigning conference play of the year Luke Harangody, is paying a visit.

In Saturday’s 61-60 win over then-No. 18 Villanova, Terrence Williams scored on a drive with 7.4 seconds remaining to put Louisville ahead for good, just barely. The Wildcats then missed two free throws with 4.9 seconds left and two shots under the basket in the final seconds. While it might have been a heart-stopper for fans, coach Pitino said, “A typical Big East game”.
Louisville (11-3, 7-7 ATS) will have to rely on its in your face defense that allows just 38 percent of shots made. Forward Earl Clark and Williams are finding their shooting eye, though guard Edgar Sosa is still extremely inconsistent. The Cardinals continue to be a covering machine in Big East battles, with 15-5 ATS record and are 11-2 ATS off a road win against a conference member.

Notre Dame (12-3, 5-5 ATS) may have the nation’s longest home winning streak, however, if they really want to make a name for themselves, a triumph over Loo-ville takes them from a good Big East team to serious contender. In order for the Irish to pull the upset, they will have to tighten up the defense. For the season, Mike Brey’s squad is run of the mill 42.3 percent, however in four conference conflicts; teams are making 47.3 percent against Notre Dame.

The Fighting Irish score 82.2 points per game and thrive on draining the three- ball with regularity. They average nine per game, making 41.3 percent, which is fourth in the country. Notre Dame never threatened to cover the spread Saturday against Seton Hall, winning 88-79 as 15-point home chalk. The Irish are 20-9 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last three seasons.

The Cards are 8-1 and 5-4 ATS at Freedom Hall this season and Bookmaker.com has them as 6.5-point favorites. Off Saturday’s close call, Louisville might not be in ideal position, being 6-19 ATS in home games after a win by six points or less. Notre Dame is 4-3 and 3-4 ATS as the visitor, yet has thrived as road underdog or pick role under coach Brey with 36-15 ATS record.

These teams have met just twice since Louisville joined the Big East, with the Cardinals winning both and the Irish covering the number each time. ESPN starts Big Monday officially with this Big East bash at 7 Eastern.

Bringing Out the Sunday Best

Another nice 2-0 day and with the LLC consensus splitting a pair. Though the Boston Celtics haven’t played this poorly in some time, check out how they do against the spread in this situation today with Today’s Top Trend. Have an absolutely awesome system in college basketball today that is 27-4 ATS over the last five years. The LLC is fairly evenly divided on today’s NFL contests. Good Luck.

We’ve all been there; absolutely convinced about the outcome of a game we’ve bet on. For some reason our mood is confident, yet a little jumpy for reasons we don’t know or understand. While everything is going according to form, suddenly events happen to change the course of the game and suddenly you realize, holy you know what, you might actually lose your wager. Afterwards, knowing you lost, you play the game over in your head countless times, trying to figure out if you somehow made a mistake, feeling just horrible.

That’s how I feel still today (while putting this in) about the Cards/Cats game not going Over last night. The amount of money wagered honestly was not very much; it’s more a principle thing. Like losing my fifth college basketball bet this week in overtime (0 and stinkin’ five in OT) I think I’ve finally come to grips with sometimes no matter how right you think you are, you just lose. Given the same exact circumstances about that game, I’d make the same bet 100 out of 100 times.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams like Santa Clara when the line is +3 to -3 off a close road loss by three points or less, with a winning percentage of between 40-49 percent on the season. That makes a suddenly improving San Diego team the play backed by system that is 27-4, ATS, 87.1 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Boston Celtics are is 12-0 ATS in road games after four or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection continues its strong showing and has 52 percent on the Eagles today with hardly anyone playing the total. Pittsburgh is the choice by 56 percent in the latter game with the Over a 2 to 1 play by members. In case you missed it, road teams have been the hot bet of late in Divisional Round playoff games with 11-1 ATS mark.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Sunday NFL Wagering Outlook

Philadelphia at New York

It was talked about quite a bit last week how DC Jim Johnson trusts his safeties and he will lean on them again to stop New York. He’ll walk them up to be the eighth man in the box, unlikely to fear the Giants receivers on anything other than short or medium routes. Forcing the G-Men into second or third and long will be foundation of defense for Philadelphia. The Eagles offensive line for the most part was stout against Minnesota last week; they can expect to see almost anything from DC Steve Spagnuolo, who will want Donovan McNabb jumpy el pronto. Note to coach Reid - Running the ball helps win games as you are seeing, do so with desire and you move to 7-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and might grab upset.

If the Giants expect to make another run at consecutive Vince Lombardi trophies, they have to do what they did in the first game at Philadelphia. The Giants used domineering running game and controlled Brian Westbrook. New York has been out-rushed by the Eagles in seven of last eight meetings, accounting for 3-4 record. The offensive line has to keep Eli Manning vertical, as New York has to take some deep shops to Domenik Hixon to loosen Philly secondary. Expect Derrick Ward to be a bigger part of the passing game out in the flat to force Philadelphia secondary to account for him and possible create a missed assignment on Giants receivers. New York is fully rested and 7-1 ATS off a loss.

Road teams have been the hot bet of late in Divisional Round playoff games with 11-1 ATS mark, including both winners yesterday.

San Diego at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh’s needs couldn’t be any more noticeable. Start the running game with Willie Parker, to soften up San Diego front, which eases blitzes on Roethlisberger to throw the ball. Defensively, find and contain Darren Sproles, making the Bolts attack one-dimensional. The Chargers passing game was not impressive last week, with a gimpy Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson taken out of the game. No way San Diego wins without greater efficiency from all its passing game. Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in the playoffs.

Philip Rivers has developed into a first rate NFL quarterback, by making better reads and protecting the ball under heavy pressure. No longer the hot-headed, sometimes out of control signal caller, his more even-tempered demeanor has helped his team to stay focused on what mattered late in the season, winning. Sproles has been a life-saver with L.T. injured, but he has to protect the pigskin with Pittsburgh’s aggressive defenders trying to pry the ball free. DC Ron Rivera has the Chargers playing more to their strengths, going full tilt and could use a couple of turnovers to turn the game in their favor. San Diego has covered 75 percent of their games as underdogs of late.

Teams like Pittsburgh that won their last game by 14 or more points playing first game in the postseason are 21-31-4 ATS. (Though 3-0 this year)