In Search of Super Saturday

Winner, winner chicken dinner. I said I felt lucky and we nailed all four plays to get us back over 60 percent. Speaking of lucky, I hit another Free Play and go to the Land of 10,000 Lakes to hopefully deliver another. Have a 100 percent reverse Trend and today’s Best System is 85.7 percent. Good Luck.

Baseball Bits: It might only last a day, but 3Daily Winners is #1 in MLB at Free Sports Monitor. I’m not a D-backs fan, but I love the way Dan Haren is pitching. He’s totally dominating. Not saying this is play, however Baltimore is 7-0 after being shutout at Camden Yards. The Left Coast Connection loves L.A. today, playing the two teams for a combined 15-0 today (Halos 9-0, Dodgers 6-0).

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175, who are run of the mill AL offensive team scoring 4.7 to 5.2 runs a game, against a descent starter (ERA of 4.20 or lower), after a combined score of four runs or less. The Red Sox fit the criteria for a system that is 36-6, 85.7 percent since President Bill Clinton bars federal funding for any research on human cloning.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Washington Nationals are 0-12 in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs a game in the second half of the season over the last two years.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Hey this is fun, I’ve hit three in a row here and like the White Sox to continue my winning streak.

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'Haunted' Milwaukee Hotel Spooks Baseball Teams

Saturday, July 11, 2009

Associated Press

MILWAUKEE — First Carlos Gomez heard voices. Then he watched his iPod go haywire after he got out of the shower, sending him scrambling for the lobby without stopping to put on his pants and shoes.

After last year's experience, the Minnesota Twins outfielder didn't want to go back to Milwaukee's Pfister Hotel. But Gomez had to stay there when the Twins were in town to play the Brewers last month, so he brought some protection: teammate-turned-roommate Francisco Liriano and a Bible.

"Everything's scary," Gomez said. "Everything in the hotel, the paintings and pictures, it's a lot of old, crazy stuff. No good, man. No good."

The Pfister is Milwaukee's most regal address, having hosted every U.S. president since William McKinley and scores of celebrities who can take a self-guided tour of the hotel's Victorian art collection. Today, it's the place to stay for upscale business travelers and out-of-town visitors, including many Major League Baseball teams. Commissioner Bud Selig, a Milwaukee native, is a frequent visitor.

But some players don't care for the 116-year-old hotel's posh accommodations and reputation for privacy. They swear it's haunted.

Gomez, San Francisco's Pablo Sandoval, St. Louis' Brendan Ryan and several Florida Marlins all say they've had odd experiences, though Ryan later said nothing really happened. Others aren't willing to talk publicly about what they've seen and heard.

Brewers visiting clubhouse manager Phil Rozewicz has heard it all from sleepy-eyed players who would rather hang out at Miller Park than spend one minute more than they have to at the Pfister.

"There was a rookie ball player and he was back in his room and he woke up in the middle of the night and his blinds were open, the window was opened and he was panicked," Rozewicz said.

"So he went into the bathroom, splashed water on his face, came back out and went to bed. Shut the blinds, the window. Woke up in the morning. Same thing. Slept on the couch in the lobby the next night. Refused to go to his room. Finally, went to a Motel 6 or whatever up the street and just stayed there."

Of course, some of this could be mischievous teammates pulling pranks. But Pfister ghost stories go well beyond the ballpark.

Allison Jornlin, who leads haunted history tours for the folklore research organization Milwaukee Ghosts, said guests have reported seeing a "portly, smiling gentleman" roaming the halls, riding the elevator and even walking his dog. The apparition is said to resemble Charles Pfister, who founded the hotel with his father, Guido.

"His ghost is thought, usually, to behave very well," Jornlin said. "But MLB players seem to bring out his mischievous side."

Why's that?

"Obviously, he's a Brewers fan," Jornlin said.

But even some of the Brewers won't stay there in the offseason.

"Even if I come into town for FanFest or whatever, I'm staying somewhere else," said Brewers center fielder Mike Cameron, who moved his family to another hotel after one night last offseason. "I mean, it's not a bad place. But there has been a lot of stories, a lot of creepy things that have gone on."

Hotel general manager Joe Kurth won't acknowledge any specific ghost stories from ballplayers or other guests, citing privacy concerns. But he doesn't shy away from the rumors, suggesting that guests interested in seeing a spirit might want to stay in the hotel's historic wing.

The Pfister does have its fans. Colorado Rockies manager Jim Tracy loves the quiet atmosphere, though the same couldn't be said for Tracy's players when he was managing the Los Angeles Dodgers.

"I was hearing suggestions, to the point that they were saying, "I've got to go to a different hotel,"' Tracy said.

That sounds familiar to Gomez, who said he hears voices and noises when he stays there and had his worst experience after hopping out of the shower last year.

He'd just started putting his clothes on when his iPod started playing with a static noise. He grabbed it and the iPod changed music suddenly before going to static again.

"I grabbed my pants and my shoes and I ran to the lobby," Gomez said.

Gomez wishes the Twins would stay somewhere else.

"I'm scared to go there," he said. "They should change the hotel. Everybody here doesn't like the hotel. Why (do) they always put us in the same hotel when you can't sleep?"

Trying to roar into weekend wagering

Another winning day gives us 137-92-3 record with tomorrow being exactly three months since this started. We’ll try and crawl back over 60 percent with a Top System that is 35-6. Feeling a little lucky and going to hand out TWO perfect Trends for today. My Free Play is one of five today, which you can sign up for to the right, however this is my favorite. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: The Florida Marlins trailed the Arizona in the sixth inning, 7-0, but came roaring back to win, 14-7. Only two other teams in major-league history have won by seven or more after trailing by seven or more in the sixth inning or later: the Cardinals in 1911 against the Reds (trailed 8-0, won, 15-8) and the Indians in 1999 against the Devil Rays (trailed 10-2, won, 20-11).

It's the fifth time this season that a team won a game after trailing by seven or more runs in the sixth inning or later. That matches the total number of wins in the major leagues over the previous five seasons combined. The Marlins have had only one previous win like that in team history, at Fenway Park in 2003. (Thanks Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like Detroit with a money line of -125 to -175, who are pedestrian AL offensive team scoring 4.7 to 5.2 runs per game, against a good starter (ERA of 4.20 or less), after a combined score of four runs or less. This systems clocks in at 35-6, 85.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Jeff Neimann and Tampa Bay are 8-0 as a favorite of -110 or higher and Jon Lester and Boston are 11-0 when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Have won two straight and look for a trio here at 3Daily Winners and like Texas as Top Play.

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MLB Series Wagering- White Sox at Twins

The Detroit Tigers lead the American League Central Division and their two closest pursuers will tangle in the Twin Cities, each with eyes on closing the gap before the All-Star break. After winning home series last weekend against the front-running Tigers, Minnesota (43-43, -4-1 units) had set its sights on gathering momentum on their nine-game homestand. Unfortunately, faster then you can say “Bruno”, that attempt has been blunted with three straight losses to the Yankees. The Twins have to pick themselves up and get ready to face divisional rival, who is playing very good baseball also.

The White Sox (44-41, +3.4 units) have won nine of last 12 to propel themselves past Minnesota and are 6-0-2 in last eight series. "The White Sox are playing very good baseball," manager Ron Gardenhire said. "If we go out and play like we did against the Yankees, we'll probably get our butts kicked here at home again. That's not too much fun." The Twins hope to recapture magic and are 40-17 at the Metrodome vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse.

Chicago’s resurgence has been led by the offense and improved starting pitching. On the season, the White Sox are averaging 4.6 runs per game (11th in AL), however in last dozen outings, they have tallied a terrific 6.3 RPG. Manager Ozzie Guillen understands that continuing to play well won’t be easy in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. The Pale Hose have lost four in a row in Minnesota and nine of 10 overall. He’ll have to hope his Friday starter John Danks (7-6, 3.76 ERA) can provide a spark. Danks has 1.51 ERA in his last five starts and Bookmaker.com has Chicago as +115 underdogs, which suits Danks and teammates, who are 11-4 (+9.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.

Minnesota will counter with Nick Blackburn (7-4, 2.94), who has been moved up a day because of illness to Glen Perkins. Blackburn has been imposing in his own right; with 1.81 ERA the last nine times he’s toed the rubber, which has included three complete games. Blackburn and the Twins are 10-1 off consecutive losses.

Game 1 Edge: Twins

After being scratched Wednesday, Perkins (4-4, 4.38) is expected to give it go in Game 2. The left-hander is at his best when he has the opposition wearing out the Astroturf, beating ground ball after ground ball and keeping his infielders busy. Coming into the series, Minnesota had won 37 of last 54 games against teams with winning records and will want to reestablish that dominance.

Earlier, had mentioned the White Sox were receiving strong starting pitching and Gavin Floyd (6-6, 4.43) is another example. After throwing like the pitcher Philadelphia had given up on, Floyd put together a string of eight quality starts, which featured a glittering ERA of 1.39, before being roughed up for five runs in just over five innings at Kansas City in last start.

Watch for outcome of opening tilt, since Floyd is 4-0 if Chicago is off a loss. Otherwise the Sox are 7-2 in last nine as visitors and 15-3 in Game 2’s.

Game 2 Edge: White Sox

If the series is tied or Chicago had won previous two games, skipper Guillen has to like his chances going into All-Star break with a win. His starter is Mark Buehrle (9-2, 3.14), who will be flying to St. Louis after the conclusion of the contest to take part in fourth All-Star game. The lefthander has been nothing short of brilliant all year and the Twinkies have issues with lefties, posting 12-17 record coming into the series.

Scott Baker (6-7, 5.31) has not been nearly as proficient for Minnesota. If the former ace of the staff is unscathed one time thru the lineup, he’s done little to make adjustments going forward, which is odd for a veteran chucker, and is lit up the next time around. Difficult to like Baker in this spot, since he has 6.85 ERA in nine appearances against Chicago and Buehrle is 23-13, with 3.72 ERA versus the Twins.

Game 3 Edge: White Sox

This is a really challenging series to pick a winner, with Minnesota having history edge and Chicago playing better baseball. With the Twins not hitting as well and White Sox having more favorable pitching matchups, will support the Pale Hose and keep fingers crossed that is the correct wager.

Bookmaker.com series odds: Chicago +115, Minnesota -145

3DW Pick: White Sox

2009 Record – 4-7

3DW Baseball Betting Beat

The three things you can count on in life are death, taxes and change. In each case, how we react to them helps sculpt our lives. In baseball, one aspect that has changed dramatically is pitchers willingness to throw inside. There are reasons this has occurred. Starting when a pitcher tries to throw inside and misses, he could either hit a batter hanging over the inside part of the plate or throw room-service pitch that is launched over the fence. Pitching away plays to the batters weakness, making him chase and swing unnaturally at outside pitches.

The problem with this style or mentality of pitching is batters have no fear. Take the Los Angeles Angels pitching staff. Only the Toronto Blue Jays have been even close to suffering as much bad luck to the staff as the Angels. To start the season, John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar started on the disabled list. Lackey and Santana have returned, with neither pitching like they have in the past. Escobar gave it try, but whispers out of Anaheim have many wondering if his career is threatened. Dustin Moseley was supposed to step in and he too ended up on the DL and Nick Adenhart was tragically killed.

The Angels were forced to look anywhere for healthy bodies to pitch, which has contributed to them being 26th in runs allowed at five per game.

The departure of Francisco Rodriguez set off a change of events to the bullpen. Brian Fuentes was brought in to be the closer and looked like a batting practice pitcher for almost eight weeks, with an ERA of almost eight at his lowest point. Scott Shields was always Mr. Durability, until his plant leg and knee gave out, requiring season-ending knee surgery. Supposed closer in the making Jose Arredondo is now in Triple-A trying to get back in groove, while fighting elbow issues.

This has left manager Mike Scioscia and pitching coach Mike Butcher with a huge dilemma almost every night. The Los Angeles bullpen is 28th in ERA, with opposing batters hitting a blistering .278 against them.

Part of the problem besides command, is lack of knowledge or ability to own the inside part of the plate. Texas Ranger and nearly washed up Andruw Jones hit four home runs in last two games against the Angels and was never threatened with inside pitch. The Rangers hit five home runs in Game 3 to take the series. Wouldn’t you think one Angels’ pitcher would have been peeved and drilled somebody? Nope. They just took it and start Friday’s action in second place, behind Texas.

The easy excuse is “that’s not how the game is played anymore” Really? Do you think Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana and Justin Verlander to name a few, just work the outside black of the plate? Of course not. Each pitcher effectively works both sides of the plate and is unafraid to come-up-and-in to move a batter who looks a little too comfortable in the box.

Unless the Angels suddenly turn into the 1927 Yankees, it’s very difficult to place a wager on them on a consistent basis, since no lead is safe and even when they do lose, the pitchers are only too happy to just accept it and move on to next game.

Don’t know if you saw this the other day, but it is EXTREMELY simple to determine what is wrong with the Cleveland Indians this season. On average, they have allowed almost 14 opposing players per game to reach bases (13.6) when combining hits and walks. This is the highest number in baseball (Yes, even Washington is better), no wonder they have lost -22.7 units, despite scoring over five runs per game.

Dan Haren of Arizona is going to the All-Star; however he hasn’t received near the notoriety he deserves for his season’s work. His record is respectable 8-5, with the Diamondbacks 10-7 for -0.2 units in his 17 starts. Consider Haren has allowed more than three earned runs just once this season. (May 23 against his former team Oakland) A total of 14 times he has pitched a minimum of six innings and surrendered two or fewer runs for a record of 8-5, which is nondescript, considering the production. His ERA is flabbergasting 2.16 and in his five defeats, the Snakes have scored THREE total runs. Consider if the Arizona scored below their average and totaled just four runs per game in Haren’s losses (He allowed eight total runs in defeats), he would have 13-0 record, at +10.85 units and the most celebrated pitcher in the game.

The Florida Marlins are hanging around in contention in the NL East, even though their supposed strength coming into the season has not materialized. The Marlins staff of fine young hurlers is 12th in ERA in the National League and they are ordinary eighth in quality starts. How has Florida succeeded? The Fish are granulating left-handed pitchers, posting 20-11 record, picking up +10.1 units. Florida averages 0.5 more runs per game against southpaws (4.9 vs. 4.4) compared to right-handers. It’s the way the rotation works out; nonetheless, the Marlins are tied for third in facing the most lefties, which seems peculiar at this juncture given there results. What is even more outlandish is the fact Florida pitchers have conceded one less run per game (4.1 vs 5.1) when a left-hander starts for the opposition.

Working on Thunderous Thursday

Nice way to wipeout Monday with 3-0 day on Wednesday. We’ll try and match it, starting with 92.9 percent system that comes with high price. Dug up another perfect trend, this time in the American League and though I was 1-2 on personal plays, had a winner here yesterday. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: Forty-two year old Boston knuckle-baller Tim Wakefield is now 11-3. Only two other pitchers had 11 wins at the All-Star break at the age of 42-or-older: Warren Spahn for the Braves in 1963 (12-4) and Phil Niekro for the Yankees in 1984 (11-4).

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like San Diego, with a money line of +175 to +250, who are having trouble making connections, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a steaming hot starting pitcher, who has WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. The price is heavy but the results are 52-4, 92.9 percent since 2005.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Boston Red Sox are 12-0 against the money line after five or more consecutive home games this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Tough card today in my opinion, with the only team from L.A. on my personal menu to come away a winner.

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Betting Baseball Looking Forward by Understanding Past

The interpretation of how baseball was to be viewed differently came about with Bill James book “Baseball Abstract”. He and his fellow scribes developed an illuminating way to no longer take a batting average at face value, rather look inside the numbers to understand what it really might means. The term “sabermetric” became part of the language of baseball in the late 1980’s and still is widely renowned in today’s world.

This has lead to other methods of interpreting statistics, opening the door for Baseball Prospectus and Baseball-Reference.com to name a couple. This in-depth type of analysis of numbers has benefited fans and those who love to wager on baseball. For those seeking opportunity to place futures wagers on baseball, being able to see halfway thru the season eliminates some of the guess work that appeared cumbersome back in March.

Today you have a track record to follow and an inkling what might occur in the last 81 games of the baseball season. The oddsmakers do also, and a Detroit Tigers preseason wager of Over/Under 81.5 wins at DiamondSportsbook.com looks safer today then it did before the season started. The Tigers price of -140 to win the Central Division appears to be a much more palatable bet than possibly money laid down on Cleveland before opening day to conquer the division.

One element of James’ work that is as fresh today as it was when he first brought up the topics is the runs scored vs. runs allowed aspect of the game. If you score more runs then your opponent, you can not lose. If you score a great deal more runs then the opposition, then you might have a dominate team. From the wagering standpoint, the value in this information is which teams are playing to their potential, which are playing above their potential and which are playing below. The last two elements are especially valuable, since if a team or teams continue on the same path, ultimately, they should reach their water mark and play accordingly.

Our goal in making long and short term wagers for baseball is to ensure equal representation of all teams. Every Major League squad had to play 81 games or half the schedule. This presents a balanced look at all the teams.

How this exercise works is to multiply the number of runs scored and square it, followed by doing the same with number of runs allowed. We’ll use Los Angeles Dodgers as the example.

Dodgers runs scored – 391
Dodgers runs allowed – 307

391 x 391 = 152881
307 x 307 = 94249

Add the two numbers together and divide the runs scored into the total to achieve a percentage.

152881 + 94249 = 247130
152881 divided by 247130 = .618

Now take the number 81 (half the season) and multiply by .618, this gives you a total of 50.05. What this means is the Dodgers should have a record of 50-31, based on runs scored and allowed and their actual record was 51-30, thus right on schedule.

Any difference greater than three games means something is occurring that needs to be understood. Typically, bullpen production or lack of it is the biggest culprit in terms of wins and losses. Below is the complete list showing each team’s actual record and record based on RS/RA methodology.

American League (actual – projected)

Boston 49-32 48-33
NY Yankees 48-33 46-35
Tampa Bay 44-37 49-32
Toronto 42-39 44-37
Baltimore 36-45 34-47

Detroit 44-37 42-39
Chicago WS 42-39 41-40
Minnesota 41-40 43-38
Kansas City 35-46 33-48
Cleveland 32-49 38-43

L.A. Angels 46-35 43-38
Texas 45-36 43-38
Seattle 42-39 38-43
Oakland 35-46 36-45

AL Observations – The most notable team to standout is the defending American League champ Tampa Bay Rays. The Tampa Bay bullpen did have early issues, however has settled down. The offense will go thru streaks of inconsistency, with as many free swingers as they have. If the Rays improve on the road (18-26) in the second half of the season and do a better job in one-run games (9-14), they could really make the AL East a three team race down the stretch.

The AL Central will be about what team puts it together and can play solid baseball for extended period of time. From wagering aspect, Cleveland looks to hold value, only if their pitching staff does a better job holding the opposition. A collection of mediocre starting pitchers is made worse with bullpen ERA of 5.13 and 50% save percentage. If the Indians can muster even average pitching numbers out of its staff, they will be more of a Play On team in last half of the year.

It looks like the Angels and Texas will battle for the AL West crown. Normally, when a team overachieves like Los Angeles has, it’s due to the bullpen. This couldn’t be any further from the truth concerning the Angels when reviewing season numbers. However, the group has started to stabilize, lowering ERA by almost a run over the last three weeks and kept them in games, with Halos No.1 hitting team in baseball (up to 4th in runs scored) doing the rest.

National League (actual – projected)

Philadelphia 43-38 44-37
Florida 41-40 38-43
N.Y. Mets 39-42 38-43
Atlanta 39-42 39-42
Washington 24-57 30-51

St. Louis 43-38 42-39
Milwaukee 43-38 42-39
Chic. Cubs 41-40 41-40
Cincinnati 41-40 36-45
Houston 40-41 37-44
Pittsburgh 37-44 41-40

L.A. Dodgers 51-30 50-31
San Francisco 44-37 45-36
Colorado 42-39 43-38
San Diego 35-46 30-41
Arizona 32-49 36-45

NL Observations – Right now the NL East is the Phillies to lose, with more hangers-on than true contenders. Florida has overachieved largely due to 14-9 record in one-run games and lambasting left-hand pitching with 21-9 mark. The Florida bullpen has a real oddity in the works and chances are these numbers will come towards the center, with uncertain impact to be determined, yet whacky nonetheless. On the road, the Marlins pen-sters have 2.26 ERA with 8-1 save record. At Landshark Stadium, these hurlers are a mess with 5.22 ERA and 10 blown saves in 22 chances.

Question- Who has the better offense, Atlanta or Washington? After half the season, each team had scored 344 total runs. The difference is the Nationals pitchers have surrendered 93 more runs. The Nats have mostly kiddie-corps for starters and will see fair share of good and bad outings. However, the bullpen, well yuck is one word that won’t offend anyone and they are the reason Washington is baseball’s biggest underachievers. A woebegone 7-29 record, with ERA over 5.5 and more blown saves than a Capitols goalie has in a month (16 in 30 attempts), leads the Nationals down a cheerless path. If they can dig up any relief help (cadavers welcome), Washington will have Play On possibilities when hitters are on hot streaks.

The NL Central doesn’t offer much insight who will eventually win the division; nevertheless, Cincinnati could be heading south. Thanks to non-starters posting imposing 3.54 ERA and closer Francisco Cordero leading efforts to finish off games with 81.5 save percentage (team’s record), the Reds are playing better than they should. This team is worth watching, with Play Against potential. Pittsburgh has underachieved, hard to consider that really newsworthy.

The Giants might be the biggest surprise of all 30 teams that take the diamond daily; however the numbers back them up as not being flukes. They have been extremely fortunate to use virtually the minimum of starters, until Randy Johnson recently became sidelined. Keep a weary eye on San Fran. The Padres were supposed to have a fowl smell and chances are this will happen by all indicators in the second half. With no offense beyond Adrian Gonzalez and pitchers certain to wear down, it is time to play the Chubby Checker song “Limbo Rock” and wonder how low can San Diego go.

Arizona should be better and will have moments throughout the second half of the season, if offensive can score runs. Difficult to be demonstrative about a team looking to move starting pitchers to contenders.

Lining up for Wednesday Winners

It’s it great to follow up losing day with winning day? That’s what we did at 3Daily Winners and we’ll try to keep it moving forward with a Perfect Trend in afternoon action. The Best System is also a matinee affair and is in the burn your hand on door handle desert sun. I’m on 10-3 run and you can get my top play below and sign up to receive them daily to the right >. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: Barry Zito pitched eight and one-third scoreless innings in the Giants 3-0 win over Florida in San Francisco. Between his major-league debut in 2000 and the end of the 2004 season, Zito threw eight-plus innings in a game without allowing a run 11 times, the seventh-highest total in the majors. But this was only Zito's second such game since 2005. The other was last August at San Diego.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like San Diego with a money line of +125 to +175, who can’t hit a lick with batting average of .250 or less, against a decent NL starting pitcher (ERA between 3.70 to 4.20), with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games. Since 1997, this system checks in at 41-9, 82 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) This might be like the Republicans wondering about Mrs. Palin, but the Washington Nationals are 0-12 in road games after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) With a number of my friends going to Cubs game in afternoon and taking train to the South Side, taking the White Sox again today.

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Cleveland woes could continue against rugged system

When last season looked like a washout for the Cleveland Indians, they did what they could to trade off assets like C. C. Sabathia and Casey Blake, in looking towards the future. The way Cleveland has played in 2009; it’s hard to say what they will do for an encore after being so miserable.

The Indians offense by all appearances is still productive, ranking sixth in runs scored at 5.2. The Tribe’s team batting average is ordinary at .261 and they have been slumping of late, hitting under .250 as club the last 20 games, despite hanging 15 runs on Oakland last Friday.

While some will quote baseball statistics and point out – what you see is not what you get – the fact is Cleveland pitching shows precisely what it has to offer.

The Tribe allows 5.5 runs per game, same as Washington, making this tandem the two worst in baseball. Cleveland hurlers surrender the second most free passes at 3.9 per game, which is huge problem if you concede 9.8 hits per contest (29th), meaning opposing team have almost 14 base-runners each night, not including errors, placing tremendous pressure on the offense to score six runs every contest at a minimum.

If starting pitchers David Huff, Tomo Ohka, Carl Pavano, Jeremy Sowers and tonight’s starter Aaron Laffey (3-1, 3.93 ERA) don’t exactly seem impressive; think about what hitters in the opposite clubhouse are dreaming of. Adding fuel to this combustible situation is the Indians bullpen, which has 5.13 ERA, 12-17 record and paid closer Kerry Wood (he’d be fired as car salesman for not closing) leads a pen that is 50-50 (14 of 28) in save opportunities this season. It’s no wonder Cleveland is 33-51 and lost 22.8 units.

The Indians after losing 10-6 to AL Central division adversary Chicago last evening will face an aging pitcher who likely salvaged his career in Charlotte of all places. Jose Contreras (3-7, 4.84) at age 37, probably can figure his best days are behind him and it looked like it might be way behind him after starting 0-5 with an ERA over eight, placing him behind the 8-ball so to speak.

He went to Triple-A Charlotte, worked on his mechanics and rewound his career. Since returning to the White Sox (43-30, +3.6 units), Contreras is 3-2 with a sparkling 2.17 ERA in five starts. He’s been part of the Sox surge which has led to 12 wins in last 16 outings. “I’ve got it back,” said Contreras, when asked about 3-0 record in last four starts.

With Cleveland pitching in ruins, the batters not hitting as well and having to tackle a starting pitcher in a zone, this sets up as awful situation for the Tribe and DiamondSportsbook.com has the Indians as +130 underdogs.

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher, who are cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher, with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts.

This system comes up fairly frequently and is 110-34 since 2005, 76.4 percent. In 2009, the numbers have improved slightly at 12-3, adding even more confidence. And speaking of confidence that is exactly what White Sox hitters have after posting big crooked numbers at US Cellular Field, with 17-4 mark after scoring nine or more runs. Even more impressive for the Pale Hose is 13-1 record at home after a game where they had six or more extra base hits over the last two seasons.

For the sports bettor looking for one big play tonight, this might be the one at affordable number.

Umpire Report for Baseball Bettors

In searching thru various forums, I will come across enough baseball bettors, who place real value on who is calling balls and strikes. Though this is often an overlooked aspect of sports wagering, much like meaningful trends, it is foolish not to consider, especially when extreme cases are involved. Much like all but washed-up Mike Hampton of Houston having 14-3 career record against Pittsburgh, including four of his five wins this season; it pays to know all the little oddities that surround baseball to have fuller understanding of winning wagers.

The home plate umpire can and does have a direct impact on every game they call. How often do you see the frustrated batter or pitcher either saying something or emitting body language that you understand as the observer they believed the person with the chest protector missed a call?

Commissioner Bud Selig has unified the umpires, eliminating the way American League and National League umps called games and placed them on higher alert by monitoring their games with special cameras to grade them on regular basis. Though this generally has brought the disparity between the league’s closer together, without question, certain men in blue call the game differently and players have to adjust.

For sports bettors, the greatest influence an umpire can have is on the total. Though the strike-zone is supposed to be uniform, much like pass interference in football, different people have differing views as to what they see. For the sake simplicity and accuracy, we only looked at adjudicators that have called balls and strikes for a minimum of 12 games in 2009. Here are the top UNDER umpires this season to date.

1) Andy Fletcher 13-3-2
2) Scott Barry 13-4-1
3) Brian Gorman 12-4-1
4) Fieldin Culbreth 11-4-1
5) Bill Miller 13-5

Collectively, this contingent is 45.5 units Under in the 67 games they crouched behind the catcher. In most cases, one umpire stands out for his method of calling games and Bill Miller would be the one in this group. Miller has a broader strike zone than most mediators, making him a pitchers delight behind the dish. He ranks eighth in fewest walks allowed (5.9) per game and is second in punch-outs at 15.7 per contest, among the 69 umpires that have called a dozen or more games looking in the pitchers eye.

If you happen to be attending or being able to watch a ballgame, in which our next collection of arbiters is involved behind the plate, make sure you three or more hours, since this will likely be the length of time needed to complete nine innings of baseball.

Here is the Top 5 OVER umps as baseball approaches the All-Star break.

1) Tim McClelland 12-5-2
2) Eric Cooper 12-5
3) Randy Marsh 11-5-1
4) Jim Reynolds 8-4
5) Jerry Meals 11-6-1

As you can see, this assemblage is not as one-sided in viewpoint of what they are calling as their fellow brethren in blue. This collection is 46-25 (26.4 units) Over, for a 64.7 percentage. Compare that to the Top 5 umpires who call more strikes and force hitters to have wider and longer strike zones. That collection of umps is 62-20 Under, 75.6 percent.

Most pitchers cringe at the thought of Randy Marsh behind the plate, knowing they have to get more of the plate to get strikes rung up, since he is sixth in most walks called at 8.3 per game (same as McClellend) and registers the fewest strikeouts (11.8) among all plate moderators.
It is probably not a wise choice to pick a total based on an umpire alone, but a fool and his money are soon to part if one isn’t knowledgeable who is calling ball and strikes. Remember this the next time you go to a game and hear the words bellow out, “Come on blue, get your head in the game.”

Seeking Terrific Tuesday of Wagering Action

We got hammered but good yesterday, lowering our record to more than respectable 130-87-3 over almost three months of official plays. Time for us to come back quicker than Brett Favre with a Top Trend that is 10-0. We’ll follow that up with 81.4 percent System and hopefully finish it off with a Free Play from Sal for winning slate. Good Luck.

Current Rankings in MLB:

#2 Free Sports Monitor
#3 The Sports Eye Monitor
#7 Cappers Watchdog Monitor

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like the Nationals with a money line of +100 to +150, who lack power (0.9 or less HR's a game), against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less long balls per start, with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season. Playing this system puts you on the winning side 81.4 percent of the time since 2004. (35-8)

Free Baseball Trend -2) Adam Wainwright and the Cards are 10-0 (+11.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game in the second half of the season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) My pal Sal likes the Seattle to brutalize Baltimore tonight.

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San Francisco posting Giant betting numbers at home

Remember when the Los Angeles Dodgers started the season by winning their first 13 home games of the season, setting modern day record. Since then they are 15-13, still with the best overall home record, however, that could end tonight and the Dodgers have already been passed as the best bet to play in Major League Baseball by a fellow division rival.

The San Francisco Giants (45-37, +9.8 units) decided to retool what was the oldest team in the big leagues, infusing younger players with the end of the Barry Bonds era. The Giants front office was comfortable with their pitching staff, having Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum at the top of the rotation and Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez ready to emerge as youthful starters. They were supplemented with veterans Barry Zito and Randy Johnson, giving San Francisco a chance to be .500 team if the offense showed any life.

Though Sanchez and not worked out to this point, being replaced by 26-year old Ryan Sadowski at this moment, the Giants trail the Dodgers by seven games in the NL West, but have the second best record in the National League, thanks to pitching and home record. The Giants have the best ERA in the majors at 3.53 and are 27-13 at AT&T Park, picking up +13 units for supporters.

San Francisco hurlers lead baseball in strikeouts and have learned to filter fly-balls to the enormous centerfield area that looks as big as The Bay itself. With last night’s 5-4 win over Florida (43-41, +3.1 units), manager Bruce Bochy’s club is 9-3 against the NL East and have won six of last seven games on home turf.

The Giants are listed as home underdog (11-7, +5.9 units) at Bookmaker.com, thanks to pitching matchup. Barry Zito started the year fairly well, but suffered without much run support. Since then, he’s looked pretty much like the same overpaid pitcher that came across the Bay, with 4-8 record and 4.82 ERA. Zito and his teammates are +115 dogs, with total Un8. Combined, they are 4-10 in Zito’s last 14 starts as a home pooch of +110 to +150.

Florida will send out their ace Josh Johnson (7-1, 2.76), to slow down San Fran. Johnson has 14 quality starts in 17 tries in 2009, with sterling 1.128 WHIP and a better than 3-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Marlins are 12-2 when Johnson starts as favorite and have won last nine outings when the right-hander has been the Game 2 starter. Florida is 15-5 OVER in road games after four straight contests where they stranded seven or less runners on base.

Despite 2.76 ERA against the Giants, Johnson has not defeated San Francisco in three previous attempts, while Zito is 3-0, conceding more than one run once in four starts versus the Fish.
First pitch is set for 7:15 Pacific and this contest is available in local markets as well as on MLB.TV, with the Giants 15-3 OVER in home games in July games.

MLB teams try to capitalize before the All-Star Break

With the 2009 All-Star game in St. Louis next Tuesday, several teams will be doing their best to position themselves to close with a flourish before the break. A number of teams can set themselves up in good spots to start the second half of the season by playing well or be undermined with doubt if they don’t play as good as they had hoped. Here is a look at four specific teams with intriguing schedules before taking a few days off to start next week.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have been in and out of first place the last couple of weeks in the National League Central and can create distance amongst its fellow rivals with a strong week of play. It won’t be easy for St. Louis, as they continue nine-game road trip against the teams in the division that are their closet competitors. Fresh off a series triumph in Cincinnati, the Redbirds are 21-19 as visitors, good for +1.1 units. Manager Tony LaRussa’s club has built a little momentum, winning four of five, after closing out June out with six losses in seven previous. Their mission starts in Milwaukee, with a three-game set. The Brewers come home after losing three of four to the Cubs and have been weaker than expected at Miller Park with 22-18 record. The Cardinals have won two of three in Milwaukee this season. After finishing up with the Brew Crew, they take the short jaunt down I-94 to Wrigley Field for three with the Cubs. Though no division title is going to be wrapped up before the All-Star game, a 4-2 week or better by the Cardinals provides a little working margin to start second half.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs were supposed to run away with the NL Central, but because of injuries, lack of consistent hitting and shaky late inning relief, Chicago is looking up at other teams within the division. The Cubs bats have shown signs of coming around, especially at home, where they are 24-14 (+3.7 units). The North-Siders are respectable fifth in ERA in the National League and have 50 quality starts, the most in the senior circuit. They are matching up with Atlanta presently and after a day off Thursday, play host to rival St. Louis. Though the Cubs have been mediocre all season, a potential 7-3 homestand has them right in the thick of division race. Series losses to Atlanta or the Cards, only raises more questions about how good this year’s Cubs team really is.

Tampa Bay Rays

The defending American League champions gladly return home after lost weekend wipeout in Texas facing the Rangers. Tampa Bay is fighting to close the gap between themselves, Boston and the Yankees. The Rays are in potentially outstanding situation to do just that with six home games, in which they should be favored in each one. Tampa Bay is 26-13 (+6.7 units) at Tropicana Field, leading baseball in runs scored at home (5.8 per game), and has Toronto and Oakland coming in. The Blue Jays and A’s both have losing records on the road this season. Tampa Bay has juicy home numbers that have any sports bettor salivating. The Rays are 89-40 at home the last two years and are 54-19 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175. When favored as -150 or more on the ML at home, Joe Maddon’s squad is terrific 47-11. A 5-1 week gives the Rays back the momentum, as they try and hunt down the AL East favorites.

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have won 16 of last 22 games to be back where most thought they would be in the AL West. They are matched up with other division front-runner Texas to start the week, with the series winner emerging as first place leader come Thursday. Los Angeles leads the American League in hitting at over .280 and plays a style of baseball that is reminiscent to craps. For those not familiar with the game, a point is established and many try and wager on the five remaining numbers to win money and build up bankrolls. The Angels play in much the same fashion, getting a couple of base-runners to start and cashing in with base-hits that keep the Halos runners moving on the base paths and runs being compiled. Besides being tested by Texas, the Yankees come to town for weekend series, having won 10 of 12 contests. Though starting rotation lacks more familiar names, skipper Mike Scioscia has gotten by and previously horrific bullpen is improving, getting Halos back to among the best in the American League. A 4-2 week against still competition keeps momentum building.

Back to work off holiday weekend

Came back with 2-1 Sunday and Matt goes for a second straight Free Winner. The Top Trend tumbled yesterday, however we found another perfect one on an underdog for today. With no exceptional money line systems for Monday, venture into the run line arena and uncover a beauty at 89.1 percent. Good Luck. (Articles return tomorrow)

What I learned yesterday – The Los Angeles Dodgers out-hit the San Diego 18-6 in their 7-6 victory at Petco Park on Sunday. It was the 113th time in the last 100 seasons that the Dodgers had at least 12 more hits than their opponent, but it was the first of those 113 games (all of them won by the Dodgers) decided by only one run.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON road underdogs against a 1.5 run line like Baltimore, (Money Line =-190 to -135) revenging two straight home losses vs opponent, with a sultry starting pitcher who has ERA less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This run line system is 41-5, 89.1 percent since 1997.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Cincinnati Reds are 10-0 (+10.9 Units) against the money line after a loss by six runs or more this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Matt continued his winning ways and is on Detroit to derail Kansas City.

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Sunday Action at 3DW

I hope everyone had a great day yesterday, as 3Daily Winners was 1-2 thanks to another extra inning loss (more on that later). The lone winner was a Best System play and we have one that is 85.2 percent today in the American League. The Top Trend is perfect 10-0 in afternoon action. Good Luck.

I won't bring this up again, but I can't believe my random bad luck in extra innings. After yesterday, now 6-9 on the season in extra frames, which is just about my winning percentage over the last several years. What will probably happen is I'll go 18-0 some year I'm having terrible season and make my record look better than it is.

What I learned yesterday – The Giants 9-0 win over Houston on Saturday followed their 13-0 win over the same club on Friday night. It's the first time since 1949 that San Fran have had back-to-back shutout wins, scoring at least nine runs in each game. On July 31, 1949, Leo Durocher's New York Giants won a doubleheader at Cincinnati by 10-0 and 9-0 scores, with Larry Jansen and Adrian Zabala throwing the shutouts.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are mediocre AL offensive team, scoring 4.2 or less runs a game, against a team with a good bullpen (ERA of 3.75 or less), with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season. This system has brought home the cash 52 of 61 times since 1997 and suggests going against Seattle.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Cliff Lee and the Cleveland Indians are 10-0 vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last two seasons, with average winning margin 3.6 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Matt from the LCC is backing the Chicago Cubs to win series over Milwaukee.