Scintillating Saturday of College Football

Matt “hands of stone” Holliday caused us to have 1-2 day on Thursday. We’ll attempt to get back on the winning track with perfect reverse trend in the Big Ten. The Best System follows the big game of the day and it is super 88.5 percent. Ken of the Left Coast Connection is having a good run and offers his top pick for Free. Good Luck

What I learned this week – Alabama has scored 30 points or more in each of its games to start the season for the first time ever and it is the longest such streak since 1979.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Florida who are average passing team (175-230 PY/game) against an average passing defense (175-230 PY/game), after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. This system is a kick butt 23-3 ATS, 88.5 percent since 2005. (Thanks StatFox)

Free Football Trend -2) Wisconsin is 0-9 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 310 yards or less a game over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Ken of the LCC is 11-4 in his last 15 CFB plays and is backing Temple today.

Guaranteed CFB selections from Paul Buck who is 31-18, 63.2 percent betting college football sides this season and has his MAC Masher. Today we have our Pac-10 Underdog Play of the Month.

The Platinum Sheet has invaluable info for the sports bettor.

Do the Tigers have enough in the tank to outlast Florida?

There is nothing like a SEC Saturday night game in person and though a few fistfights could be started about what is the best location, Baton Rouge has no peer. LSU is grateful circumstances worked out that they host top-ranked Florida at Tiger Stadium at night, where they win over 80 percent of the time once the sun goes down.

In the collegiate sense, Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow are Bill Walsh and Joe Montana. Tebow is the perfect quarterback to run Meyer’s read option offense and though other quarterbacks are blessed with better skills in other areas just like Montana, the list is short where these two quarterbacks stand in history in their respective sports.

Florida (4-0, 2-1 ATS) is more than Tim Tebow and chances are we will find out how much more, with Tebow’s playing time an uncertainty due to concussion. During the off-week, coach Meyer and his offensive coaches have devised a separate package for sophomore backup John Brantley, which includes more I-formation sets. Brantley supposedly is more a NFL-type quarterback in throwing style and arm strength.

While many people are already drooling about the possibility of Florida and Alabama rematch in the SEC title game, think about these numbers for the Gators in the statistics.

Points allowed – 1st
Total defense -1st
Points scored – 2nd
Total offense - 3rd
Rushing yards -1st

At this point of the season, it’s nearly impossible to have a more complete Ladders resume. Much like the Florida basketball team that came back to create a legacy, this football team appears hell-bent on doing the same. Florida is 6-1 ATS the last three years as SEC road favorites.

LSU (5-0, 2-2-1 ATS) is No.4 in the country based on preseason rankings and other teams being upset, not on current body of work. Coach Les Miles is still seeking consistent play from his offense. The misfires have been a combination of QB Jordan Jefferson not hitting open receivers and the offensive line not giving running backs enough time to run up a hole for yardage. The Tigers offense is among the poorest in the country (99th in total offense) in gaining real estate.

The defense is not up to usual standards, nowhere near the Top 25 in the country, ranked 39th in allowing 321.6 yards. A schedule that has included UL-Lafayette, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State just proves how lackluster the defense has been. LSU is 5-15 ATS in home games vs. offensive teams scoring 31 or more points a game.

However, this is Saturday night in Bayou Country. A bowl of gumbo and plate of jambalaya goes down real easy with adult beverages. Bookmaker.com has LSU as seven-point underdogs with total of 44.5. The Tigers may be 0-7 ATS in home games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game on the season, but LSU can compete physically. Remember, a below average Tennessee team was capable of making Florida one dimensional on offense on the road, a far more talented Tiger bunch can at least do the same before the home folks. As CBS analyst Gary Danielson noticed, Jefferson is comfortable throwing the ball despite running reputation and has solid wide receivers.

No matter who is taking the snaps, Florida will attack LSU front, which given the talent, would be considered roman ‘a clef if put into literary terms (41st against the run). The Gators running game should force coach Miles to bring up more defenders, leaving better passing lanes. The Gainesville group is 13-3 ATS as a favorite and 9-2 ATS against fellow SEC members. A choppy offensive plays right into the hands of hungry Gators defense, who could stymie the Cleveland Browns, let alone LSU.

Since 1998, LSU is 4-7 and 3-8 ATS against Florida. The home team is 5-12 ATS the last 17 years and the Bengal Tigers haven’t covered as home underdogs since 2000. (0-3 ATS)

Kickoff is at 8 Eastern on CBS.

3DW Line – Florida by 8

Saturday College Football Betting Previews

With conference play on across the country, important matchups popup the second Saturday in October that will have a massive impact on what the standings will look like in early December. The winners will emerge with a decided edge and the losers will be playing catch-up unless the breaks fall their way. Ole Miss has to beat Alabama, since another SEC loss relegates them to less bowl possibilities. The winner of Wisconsin and Ohio State grabs the upper hand in the Big Ten and both host Iowa. Oregon is playing like many thought they would back in August; however that has been in Eugene, they’ll see what they can do at UCLA. The Hawkeyes will try and move to 6-0 hosting Michigan after dark. The loser of Georgia and Tennessee will have to take a look at their goals for the rest of the year. Odds courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Georgia (+1, 46) at Tennessee 12:00E SEC Network

The SEC is steeped in football tradition, which makes no sense why Georgia and Tennessee can’t be played on what it historically known for “the third Saturday in October”. Every college football fan south of the Mason-Dixon Line knows this; but the schedule-makers have decided to ignore tradition. The Bulldogs (3-2, 1-4 ATS) are off emotionally draining 20-13 home joust with LSU, which was their last home game until Nov.7. Coach Mark Richt’s squad has had to fight for everything this season, not having supreme talent difference. Quarterback Joe Cox has played fairly well, but has made his contribution to Georgia having 13 turnovers this season. A.J. Green and Cox have been clicking with more regularity, opening up the running game. The Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS in the first of two or more SEC true road encounters.

After losing to Auburn 26-22, Tennessee (2-3 SU&ATS) is in a very demanding position. The Volunteers defense has been struck by a large amount of injuries, forcing backups to compete in this extremely competitive conference. Coaches can say the next person has to be prepared and step up, however, when you are facing multiple substitutions, the task becomes more daunting. Tennessee is seeing more eight man fronts, daring quarterback Jonathan Crompton to throw and he needs to keep his poise and deliver strikes. The Vols are 10-23 ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9.

Off last week’s challenging encounters, this is gut-check time for both SEC squads. Another conference loss could send Tennessee tumbling, with Alabama and South Carolina on deck after a bye week. The visiting team is 4-2 and 5-1 ATS and Georgia stays in the SEC East hunt with a victory. Totals players beware, the Vols are 10-0 UNDER against SEC opponents over the last two seasons.

3DWLine – Tennessee by 7

Alabama (-4.5, 46) at Mississippi 3:30E CBS

Alabama (5-0, 4-1 ATS) continues to look like the most complete team in the country after cornering Kentucky 38-20 and can take another step closer to realizing just how good they could be. Quarterback Greg McElroy has surpassed all outsiders’ expectations and runs an efficient attack with ample weaponry. McElroy’s claim to fame before this season was sitting and waiting his turn to become starter. However, he’s earning other acclaim with 22-0 record as starter dating back to high school. To date, the defense has shutdown every offense, with its domineering defensive line and has incredible size and speed everywhere else. The Crimson Tide are 12-5-1 ATS on the road against ranked teams.

Mississippi’s hopes of being SEC West champs hinge on the outcome of this contest in Oxford. This means Jevan Snead has to forget about all the preseason hype that surrounded him and be the same player he was last season. The offense has had zero rhythm all season. Besides Snead’s accuracy issues, pass protection has been failing in obvious pass situations and the running game is more inconsistent than an episode of “Brothers”. The defense has carried Ole Miss (3-1, 2-1 ATS) and they will need another ginormous effort against the Crimson Tide. Mississippi is 9-3 ATS as home underdogs at The Grove vs ranked teams.

Alabama has won 13 of last 15 meetings, but the visitor is 2-7 ATS in last nine get-togethers. The Tide has won five in a row, including controversial contest two years ago in Oxford on shaky at best call that went their way late, that preserved 27-24 win as six-point road favorites. Bama has not covered the spread against the Rebels since 2004.

3DW Line – Alabama by 3.5

Wisconsin (+16, 47) at Ohio State 3:30E ABC-ESPN

This will be Wisconsin’s second straight road game and they are 29-14 ATS in road games in the first half of the season. QB Scott Tolzien continues to be efficient and re-juggled offensive line has kept his uniform clean. Tolzien has found different receivers, but when it’s time to move the Badgers into the end zone, tight end Garrett Graham is the preferred choice. On defense, Wisconsin (5-0, 2-2 ATS) is finding better combinations to slow opponents running game and rush the passer; nonetheless, the secondary still allows too many big plays. Wisky is 0-8 ATS versus excellent defensive teams allowing 285 or fewer yards per game over the last three seasons.

Since surrendering 27 points against the Navy’s option offense, Ohio State’s defense has conceded 32 total points in next four games. Normally this would draw huge media attention, but with the Buckeyes big game woes and the Big Ten’s fall in stature, the Kardashian’s attract more interest. Ohio State (4-1 SU&ATS) has turned into Coke Zero under coach Jim Tressel. They look and feel like the original, but are rather dull, leaving nobody all that excited. The defense recently pitched a pair of shutouts for the first time in 13 years, but few outside of Columbus could name a Buckeyes defensive starter. QB Terrelle Pryor was flashy recruit, but he’s been mostly effective in Tressel’s offense, lacking pizzazz. Ohio State is 3-7 ATS in the middle of a road sandwich.

Wisconsin is the only team to conquer Ohio State three times this decade and they are 6-3 ATS since 1996. No reason for the Buckeyes not to be focused since they will be large favorites in next three games and they are 17-4 ATS in home games versus offensive clubs averaging 425 or more yards per game.

3DW Line – Ohio State by 14.5

Oregon (-3.5, 46.5) at UCLA 3:30E ABC-GP

The word is out; don’t go to sleep on UCLA, as they stand 3-1 this season after Stanford conflict. The Bruins defense doesn’t have much depth, but their front-line players can stop the run and chase down frightened quarterbacks, ranking 20th nationally in total defense. Coach Rick Neuheisel isn’t certain if regular starting signal caller Kevin Prince’s broken jaw is sufficiently healed, but if not, senior Kevin Craft is an adequate replacement. Coach Rick would really like to get freshman Randall Carroll and Morrell Presley more involved in the passing game and utilize their speed for longer gains. The Bruins (3-1 ATS) are big and bad at home with 17-5 ATS Pac-10 record in the last five seasons.

Oregon (4-1, 3-2 ATS) followed up dismantling of California by rubbing out Washington State 52-6. This will be the Ducks first road game since losing to Boise State. Since dispirited effort in Idaho, the Oregon offense has averaged 40.7 points per game, with junior quarterback Jeremiah Masoli regaining his passing eye and touch. The big turnaround in confidence for Masoli has coincided with playing pitch and catch with tight end Ed Dickson. Redshirt freshman running back LaMichael James is quickly making people forget what’s his name (LeGarrette Blount). The Ducks make plenty of noise with a 9-2 spread record in their second road of the year.

Oregon would just as soon forget their last trip to the Rose Bowl, being shutout 16-0 as one-point favorites. The home team has had the higher number on the scoreboard in the last three meetings, but the visitor is 12-5 ATS the last 19 years. The Ducks play on the fake turf at home, nevertheless are 19-8 ATS playing on real grass during the regular season. The oddsmakers number might be key, since the underdog is 11-5 against the spread.

3DW Line – Oregon by 1

Michigan (+8, 47.5) at Iowa 8:00E ABC

Michigan (4-1, 3-2 ATS) ran out of gas at in-state rival Michigan State 26-20 in overtime and takes to the road a second straight time. One major difference in the Wolverines revival has been coach Rich Rodriquez’s ability to sell this team on his methods. Michigan is marginally more talented than a season ago, having more speed in key positions along with quarterback more suited to run the offense. However, this team enjoyed early success and came together. The Wolverines are averaging 34 points per game mostly behind QB Tate Forcier, thanks in part to offensive line punching holes in defenses. The Michigan stop unit has yet to stop an offense not in the MAC (ranked 91st) and lacks ability and presumably desire to raise their level of play. Ann Arbor’s finest are 2-6-1 the last few years as Big Ten road underdogs.

After completing non-conference slate with triumph against Arkansas State 24-21, the 5-0 Hawkeyes (3-1 ATS) return to Big Ten battles. This is homecoming weekend and if Iowa can win the next three weeks (at Wisconsin and at Michigan State), the conference crown could be decided quite possibly when they travel to Ohio State in mid-November. Iowa has won with defense and special teams this year. It’s been a foregone conclusion the defense will find a strategy to stop opposing offense (10th in scoring defense) and one aspect of the special teams has delivered weekly. The running game is in good hands with Brandon Wegher and Adam Robinson, but at some point, QB Ricky Stanzi is going to have to lead his team to victory. The Hawkeyes are 27-8 ATS versus rushing teams averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards a carry.

Michigan arrives in Iowa City 7-1 ATS in the second of two straight road encounters. These teams don’t meet annually, but the Hawkeyes are 6-2-2 ATS in last 10 meetings.

3DW Line – Iowa by 9

Louisiana Tech at Nevada Preview

Nevada opens WAC play hosting Louisiana Tech in a televised tilt. The Wolf Pack (1-3, 1-3 ATS) were in desperate need of a win after starting 0-3 and in came in-state rival UNLV to Reno. Nevada’s offense had been struggling but finally showed their power routing the Rebels 63-28 as 6.5-point favorites.

How complete was the Wolf Pack victory? Consider for a moment, they had four turnovers, were penalized 15 (that’s correct) times and still managed to score 63 incredible points. That’s what happens when you total 763 yards of offense, of which 559 were on the ground, (not kidding) for an AVERAGE of a smidge over 10 yards per carry. UNLV was completely maladroit in trying to stop Nevada.

Louisiana Tech (2-2, 1-2 ATS) hadn’t exactly been sterling themselves, before playing Hawaii at home last week. The Bulldogs returned nine starters from offense that churned out 187 yards on the ground last season and thus far had looked anemic by comparison. With the help of a raucous home crowd and national cable audience, Louisiana Tech ran for 352 yards and completely controlled the Warriors in convincing 27-6 thumping as 4.5-point favorites.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Nevada as 10.5-point home favorites (up from opening 6.5), with total of 58 and they are 21-9 ATS as a home chalk. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick looked like the double threat he had been during his career last week and will seek to expand his game once again. Nevada is the more dynamic team in this matchup, however if they keep turning the ball over (14 times this season), they bring Louisiana Tech back into the game. The Wolf Pack are 17-10 ATS as WAC favorites the last five years.

The Bulldogs are making second straight appearance on the ESPN family of networks after Hawaii conflict and are 12-30 ATS in road games in the first half of the season. Louisiana Tech’s best chance is to create pressure on Kaepernick and raise those doubts he has felt this season. Defensive tackle D’Anthony Smith, an all-WAC candidate known his run-stopping ability, will have to be difference-maker to slow Nevada running game. The Bulldogs are 6-11 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points.

Louisiana Tech has fallen four straight times to Nevada (1-3 ATS) and will try and turn the tables on ESPN starting at 9 Eastern. The home team is 4-1 SU and ATS, with these teams averaging 72 point per game when convening, for 6-2 OVER mark.

Thursday Happenings

Ended up with 1-1 day, as Chris Carpenter really struggled with command, giving the Dodgers scoring chances. The Top Trend is flat out perfect at 9-0 in one of today’s MLB contests. The Best System did not quite make the 80 percent threshold, but is rock solid at 78.8 percent. Good Luck

What I learned today – Do you get the feeling that Derek Jeter couldn't wait for the postseason to start? The Yankees icon went 2-for-2 with a home run, two RBI, three runs scored and two walks in New York's 7-2 win over the Twins in Game One of the Division Series.
Only two other players in Yankees postseason history have had a game in which they had at least four plate appearances, reaching base safely in each; scored at least three runs; had at least two RBIs; and hit a home run. Two pretty famous players in two pretty famous games.

In Game Four of the 1926 World Series at St. Louis, Babe Ruth became the first player to hit three home runs in a World Series game, doing so in only three at-bats, with two walks, four runs scored and four RBIs. And in Game Six of the 1977 World Series against the Dodgers, Reggie Jackson became the only player other than Ruth to hit three homers in a World Series game, also doing so in only three at-bats, with a walk, four runs scored and five RBI. (Thanks, Elias)

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like the Phillies with a money line of -150 or more who are good NL offensive team, scoring 5.0 or more runs per game against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA of 4.50 or higher), after allowing one run or less. This system is 93-25, 78.8 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals are 9-0 on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

Free Hockey Pick -3) The most knowledgeable hockey bettor I know likes Pittsburgh tonight after sleep walking loss to Phoenix yesterday.

Guaranteed CFB Thursday play from Paul Buck who is 30-18, 62.5 percent betting college football sides this season.

The Platinum Sheet has invaluable info for the sports bettor.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Nebraska and Missouri hunker down

This increasingly bitter rivalry has been played every since 1922. Missouri has outscored Nebraska 92-23 the last two years and is going for its first three game sweep in 40 years. Coach Bo Pelini claims to not care about last season’s 52-17 Missouri victory as they prepare for the road trip to Columbia.

“It really doesn’t matter what happened last year,” said the second-year Nebraska coach. “It’s a different point in time, different scenario, different players. Not really an issue with me.

“We got out-executed last year. We just got beat. What happened last year isn’t going to have any correlation on what happens this year, unless we let it.”

Nebraska (3-1, 4-0 ATS) showed no ill-effects from last minute loss to Virginia Tech 16-15 and laid out Louisiana-Lafayette 55-0 as 30-point favorites in last contest. This will be the Big 12 opener for both teams and coach Pelini knows what to do.

“Now, the season starts. Right now,” Pelini said. “That’s the way we look at it. It’s time to put the foot on the gas pedal and go, because we have a long season ahead of us and a lot of challenges coming up.”

Quarterback Zac Lee has only had one poor performance and that came against the relentless defensive pressure of Virginia Tech, which Missouri doesn’t seem capable of producing. The Cornhuskers are 3-8 ATS as Big 12 road favorites.

Missouri (4-0, 2-1 ATS) stayed unbeaten, winning and covering their first true road of the season at Nevada 31-21. The Tigers have to be ready to play, but can’t go emotionally overboard, playing at Oklahoma State next, followed by the Sooners arriving in Columbia. Sophomore quarterback Blaine Gabbert threw for 414 yards and three touchdowns on 25-of-40 passing in Reno. Gabbert has some of the best targets to throw to in the Big 12 like Danario Alexander and had five pass plays of 30 or more yards in last outing.

Missouri still has things to work on, since the running game stalled against Nevada (78 yards) and they allowed over 200 yards on the ground. Missouri is 17-5 ATS in home games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game.

This will be the Tigers second underdog role of the season, with Bookmaker.com having them catching 3.5-points with total of 51.

“We’re going in as underdogs this year,” Missouri tailback Derrick Washington said. “A lot of people didn’t think we’d be 4-0 coming into this game. Everybody’s doubting us.”

The Tigers have won 23 of last 27 contests (15-11-1 ATS) at Memorial Stadium and will need Gabbert to have big game and play mistake free for nation’s No. 10 pass offense at 310 yards per game. Coach Gary Pinkel’s team isn’t anything special defensively; however they have been much improved over a year ago and are 8-2 ATS at Faurot Field against opponent with revenge.

Coach Pelini’s influence is being found with the Huskers first in scoring defense (7 PPG) in the country and 21st in total defense. Be sure to watch nose tackle Ndamukong Suh, he’s a beast in the middle. Nebraska will try to run the ball with talented junior Roy Helu, which should open up passing lanes for Lee. Numbers don’t favor the “Children of the Corn” (Rece Davis speak), who are 12-30 ATS in road games off a home win by 17 points or more and 1-14 SU (4-10-1 ATS) as visitors against ranked opponent.

It’s a special start time for Thursday college football on ESPN at 9 Eastern and the home team is 6-1 ATS since 2002.

Red Sox and Angels do battle

As if the postseason isn’t enough motivation, the Los Angeles Angels have a score to settle. The Angels had the second best record in the American League and that accomplishment means nothings to oddsmakers. The Halos are underdogs to Boston, since in the last five years; they have one win in 10 meetings with the Red Sox in the postseason. This can’t even be described as a rivalry since the outcomes have been so one-sided.

How will this year be any different than the last three times? Los Angeles feels better equipped offensively this time around. Only the Yankees scored more runs than the Angels in baseball this season. The 5.5 runs per game and boost in power (183 home runs) gives them the belief they are less likely to be stymied like in the past, since they have averaged 2.9 runs per game in last 10 postseason conflicts.

The Angels also believe their starting pitching is every bit as good as Boston’s, maybe better. John Lackey and Jered Weaver have experience and generally pitch well at home. When they travel to Boston, Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders will try and make life tough on Red Sox hitters, as both are throwing extremely well of late.

In theory that all sound terrific, one problem, the Angels bullpen. Though Los Angeles has a higher save percentage than Boston (73 to 69 percent), nobody is going to take the Halos pen over the BoSox. Closer Brian Fuentes just recently went under four (3.93) for his ERA for the first time this season. The Angels are 11th in bullpen ERA compared to Boston’s second place finish in the American League. According to ESPN senior editor Dave Schoenfield, only three teams since 1969 have won the World Series with a closer who had ERA greater than three.

Boston has John Papelbon (1.85 ERA) as its closer and teams that have inferior closer, but better overall record are 26-28 in the division series. The lower scoring team is 32-22 in this round and the club with the better bullpen ERA wins 58.9 percent of the time (33-23) in divisional series.

Total the numbers and you can see why the Angels are underdogs in the ALDS. For Los Angeles to win they have to score runs and HOPE the bullpen can shutdown Boston bats. If the Red Sox starters once again limit L.A. in the run column, it will be like watching the TV Land; you’ve seen this show before.


Offensive – American League
Runs scored Boston 3rd Angels 2nd
Home Runs Boston 3rd Angels 8th
Slugging Ptc. Boston 2nd Angels 4th
Walks Boston 2nd Angels 7th
On base Ptc. Boston 2nd Angels 3rd

Pitching & Defense
ERA Boston 7th Angels 9th
Bullpen ERA Boston 2nd Angels 11th
Strikeouts Boston 2nd Angels 9th
Walks Boston 6th Angels 5th
On base Ptc. Boston 8th Angels 10th
Putouts Boston 8th Angels 5th
Errors Boston 3rd Angels 4th

Key Numbers- Los Angeles won the season series 5-4, including 4-2 at the Big A. The tone of the series is likely to be set in the series opener. John Lackey is living off history as big game pitcher, having last won in his rookie season of 2002, pitching in the postseason. Lester allowed one run in 14 innings last October against the Halos and the lefty and teammates are 35-12 in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Though several factors are in the Red Sox favor, they are desultory 3-15 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.

Bookmaker.com Series Odds: Red Sox -135, Angels +115

Let's whack the books on Wednesday

Clocked in with a nice 3-1 record on Tuesday. I don’t follow a ton of NHL and am more skeptical about those systems I lack knowledge of. Nonetheless, it was the best on the board and gave it a shot. Speaking of taking a shot, we have another perfect angle going today, this time on the base paths. A lot of focus on side action in baseball, but one consensus stood out for our Free Play. The Best System is for upcoming Pac 10 matchup at 82.4 percent. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday – I’d be willing to bet there might not be a better baseball game played the rest of the postseason than Detroit and Minnesota yesterday.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Washington State- after being outgained by 225 or more total yards in their previous game, with eight or more offensive starters including the quarterback returning. Watch for this on Saturday with 28-6 ATS mark (82.4 percent), including two for two this season.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Minnesota Twins have yet to defeat the Yankees this season in seven tries.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The LCC baseball plays were pretty convoluted, with the St. Louis the most decided favorite. What stood out was 6-0 for bettors on the Under for Cards/Dodgers.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

It pays to have a great defense in college football

Dating back to Perry Mason and fast-forwarding to Denny Crane of Boston Legal, it’s always been an asset to have a good defense. That has also been the case in winning college football games, since we have always heard the mantra, “defense wins championships”. The question is does a top notch defense help the sports bettor win money?

Without a doubt, it is part of the winning portfolio and in many ways overlooked more than it should be by the average bettor. It’s been proven that a football game is broken down into three parts, with seven pieces within it. The breakdown is three on offense, three on defense and one for special teams. Great defensive teams provide a quandary of sorts for oddsmakers, compared to terrific offensive teams.

When the game starts, both teams fundamental goal is to score points and prevent the opposition from doing so, not exactly SportsCenter highlight material. The advantage an offense has there is no limit to the number of points they can score based on possessions or other areas like defensive touchdowns for scores and special teams finding ways to light the scoreboard. Teams with superior defenses cannot impact the score per se in the same manner since in football and all other major team sports; you can’t do better than zero.

Oddsmakers have the ability from public perception to add points to certain teams, especially when the team has offense that turn numbers like Vanna White changes letters. Teams that play tremendous defense don’t have the same appeal to sports bettors, unless they have potent offense. The other problem with great defense is they could pitch a shutout, but if their quarterback decides he likes throwing the pigskin to the other team as much as his own players, a 13-0 victory as a two-touchdown favorite will subtract from wagering account.

What should the sports bettor look for in a great defense? Like every lawyer, first you have to understand the laws. It rather simple to understand that if prevent the other team from scoring, your chances of winning are dramatically increased. You might be saying to yourself, Doug, I don’t need to read this article to know that. And for the most part I’d agree with except for the fact that college football generates billions of dollars, as does the wagering industry on football, yet the game in its most basic form is simply blocking and tackling. Do we know from week to week who is going to do that the best? I digress.

Currently, familiar names like Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, USC, Penn State and Ohio State are among the leaders in fewest points allowed. Two teams that are also among the top group are South Florida and Nebraska. At this juncture, it might be wise to be mildly skeptical about these two squads, as the only legitimate team USF faced was Florida State, though they did hold them to seven points. Let’s see how they do against Cincinnati and at Pittsburgh before we go all in on the Bulls. Nebraska has the right coach in Bo Pelini for defense, nevertheless, three home games against Sun Belt teams is not a good barometer.

Total defense is another good method to follow, but don’t buy in just yet. Teams like N.C. State, Connecticut and Arizona State dot this category. Each has had their turn against meager competition and done a fairly good job against comparable teams. Waiting it out another week won’t hurt to start building portfolio on these squads. Otherwise, stick with proven teams that restrict offenses.

Moving ahead, two other specific categories reflect a truer strength in this reporter’s often less than humble opinion, while still taking scheduling into consideration.

The YPPT or yards per point index is a wonderful gauge of defensive strength. This is based on the number of points the opposing team scores per 100 yards. Why this is superior to “points allowed” for example, take a look at this in-game situation. Say the Alabama offense is turnover-prone one day as six-point road favorites. They have three fumbles and interceptions in their territory and their opponent cashes them in for 17 points, gaining 80 total yards. The entire rest of the contest, Bama’s opposition moves the ball for just another 120 total yards and no points. The Crimson Tide’s offense goes on to score 24 points and wins 24-17, covering the spread. In just looking at points surrendered, it looks like the Crimson Tide’s opponent that day did fairly well against them, yet in fact they held them in-check except for their own miscues and ended up with good day based statistics. In reviewing these numbers, the Sooners, Gators and Trojans are all camped out here, but others maybe not on everyone’s radar appear. Iowa proved just how strong they are defensively in shutting down Penn State. Ole Miss is ranked sixth in the category and was supposed to have strong offensive team; however it has been the defense that has carried them. If quarterback Jevan Snead comes around, the Rebels could roll when it comes to covering spreads.

The best situation to wager on a quality defensive club is when they are underdog. The Hawkeyes win at Penn State was ideal way to consider for wager. Their defense was able to absorb quick blow by the Nittany Lions and gradually took over the game, rendering the Jo Pa’s with no working options once they trailed in the game. Stellar defensive squads catching points are always worth a look.

The final area to examine is yards per play (YPP) allowed. This speaks to the constant domination of a defense. Any team allowing 4.1 yards per play or less is going to be difficult to sustain a drive against. Most teams will average about 12 possessions per contest and roughly have to travel 60-70 yards to score touchdowns. To beat a controlling defensive team like this (turnovers the unknown variable), an offense would have to put together three separate drives of 13 or more plays to score three touchdowns to give themselves an opportunity to win. Can it be done, of course it can, but betting on it consistently is like playing a six-team parlay weekly, expecting to win.

Not to be redundant, but teams coached by Bob Stoops, Pete Carroll, Urban Meyer, Mack Brown and Nick Saban are listed again, with a few you might not have thought of. North Carolina, Oregon, TCU and Mississippi have all played representative slates and have held opposing offensives to low numbers on yardage manufactured per play.

In the end, if you are going to have to take on Law and Order, you would want to have Alan Shore of Crane, Pool and Schmidt, backing you up with his slick defensive moves to make you a winner.

Minnesota and New York ALDS Preview

The New York Yankees went on an unparalleled spending spree last season and it ended up helping them have the best record in baseball at 103-59. Everyone knows that is fine and dandy, however how New York plays in October will determine if it was money well spent.

The Yankees haven’t played in the World Series since 2001 and haven’t won the Fall Classic since taking home the big trophy in years 1998-2000. Mr. Yankee Derek Jeter understands better than anybody why this team could be different.

“We have much better pitching, and this lineup allows everyone to be more aggressive because we have good hitters 1-9.”

New York’s dominance pops up in a couple of different ways. In games decided by two or more runs, they were 62-43. At the new Yankee Stadium they built a 57-24 record and if Minnesota or anyone dares to start a left-hander against them, good luck, with the Bronx Bombers 36-18.

The Minnesota will make the unlikely journey to New York riding high. The Twins won what might be the best baseball game anyone will see the rest of the season Tuesday night, taking down Detroit 6-5 in 12 sensational innings.

The Twins are the hottest team remaining, winning 17 of last 22, including the all important last five in a row. Minnesota will have their work cut out for them since they lost all seven games to the Yankees this season and they have one victory in last 11 tries playing in the Bronx.

The Yankees are easily the biggest favorite to win the four divisional series at -400 and are the odds on favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com to be champions yet again at +160 odds. Let’s see what the Yankees do.


Offensive – American League
Runs scored Minnesota 4th New York 1st
Home Runs Minnesota 9th New York 1st
Slugging Ptc. Minnesota 7th New York 1st
Walks Minnesota 4th New York 1st
On base Ptc. Minnesota 5th New York 1st

Pitching & Defense
ERA Minnesota 11th New York 4th
Strikeouts Minnesota 10th New York 1st
Walks Minnesota 1st New York 11th
On base Ptc. Minnesota 7th New York 4th
Putouts Minnesota 6th New York 3rd
Errors Minnesota T-1st New York 5th

NLDS Series Preview

The pressure, the intensity and the drama all ratchet up in the Major Leagues with post-season baseball. The National League picture has really changed in the last 45 days. The Los Angeles Dodgers were thought to be a lock to win the National League West, when they seemingly lost interest. From August 28 on, the Dodgers only played nine of last 34 games against teams with winning records and yet didn’t clinch NL West crown until the next to last day of the regular season. In fact, Los Angeles had six straight days to wrap up the division and lost five in a row before finally defeating Colorado this past Saturday. The Dodgers were less than inspiring 19-14 against the below average competition to finish the regular season and are +123 underdogs despite home field advantage.

How could that be one might wonder, it’s because they are playing St. Louis. Most baseball experts are saying forget the fact they lost six of last seven games, that was just a team setting up rotation and preparing for the playoffs. No team in baseball was more aggressive before the trade deadline in adding quality players to their roster. Matt Holliday was really the most important acquisition, as he brought a potent bat to help Albert Pujols batting cleanup. From July 24 until Sept.22, St. Louis was baseball best 37-17.

The Cardinals appear to also have two distinct advantages in this series, superior starting pitching and better bullpen. Chris Carpenter (17-4, 2.24 ERA) would have two starts in this series if it goes the distance. Carpenter led the National League with the lowest ERA and he’s been ridiculous of late with sick 0.45 earned run average in his last three starts. Adam Wainwright (19-4) was fourth in ERA at 2.63. Only once in 18 times did Carpenter and Wainwright lose back to back games and that hasn’t happened in over three months.

Offensive – National League
Runs scored Dodgers 4th St. Louis 7th
Home Runs Dodgers 11th St. Louis 6th
Slugging Ptc. Dodgers 7th St. Louis 6th
Walks Dodgers 4th St. Louis 12th
On base Ptc. Dodgers 1st St. Louis 10th

Pitching & Defense
ERA Dodgers 1st St. Louis 4th
Bullpen ERA Dodgers 1st St. Louis 4th
Strikeouts Dodgers 2nd St. Louis 14th
Walks Dodgers 8th St. Louis 1st
On base Ptc. Dodgers 1st St. Louis 3rd
Putouts Dodgers 1st St. Louis 10th
Errors Dodgers 4th St. Louis 9th

Key Numbers- The Cardinals have won five of seven this season and is 5-4 at Dodger Stadium the last three years. With the Dodgers having to face two stud pitchers in the first two games, note they are 8-16 vs. a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season.

Bookmaker.com Series Odds: Cardinals -150, Dodgers +130

In the other NLDS, it is more old-school traditional baseball. The defending World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies and Colorado Rockies have ability to score runs by the bushel-full and have strong starting pitching. The Phillies topped the National League in runs scored at 5.1 per game, which was just ahead of second place Colorado at 5.0. Need a game changing home run, look no further than these two clubs with Philly going yard 224 times (1st in NL) and Rocks batters sending the ball over the fence 190 times (2nd).

No team can live on hitting alone and Colorado had five different starting pitchers win 10 games or more, led by Jorge DeLa Rosa 16 wins. The Phillies have Cole Hamels who pitched much better the last two months than the first four and knows what it takes in the postseason. The addition of Cliff Lee gave the Phillies a wonderful a chance to win every fifth day and placed Joe Blanton in better position as a solid starter.

Both lineups have the ability to explode at any time, which sets up the potential for a great deal of second guessing by the managers in this series when it comes to making pitching changes. When has a starter had enough or can he work out of jams?

This leads to the late inning bullpen situations for both teams. Closer Brad Lidge was given every opportunity to succeed by manager Charley Manuel and he failed. Ryan Madison is now the closer, but his mental makeup is unproven in this pressure packed role. Huston Street has only allowed runs once in his last 10 appearances, yet nobody is convinced he’s Mariano Rivera material.

Offensive – National League
Runs scored Colorado 2nd Philadelphia 1st
Home Runs Colorado 2nd Philadelphia 1st
Slugging Ptc. Colorado 2nd Philadelphia 1st
Walks Colorado 1st Philadelphia 7th
On base Ptc. Colorado 2nd Philadelphia 8th

Pitching & Defense
ERA Colorado 7th Philadelphia 5th
Bullpen ERA Colorado 13th Philadelphia 9th
Strikeouts Colorado 8th Philadelphia 9th
Walks Colorado 4th Philadelphia 2nd
On base Ptc. Colorado 6th Philadelphia 7th
Putouts Colorado 12th Philadelphia 4th
Errors Colorado 5th Philadelphia 2nd

Key Numbers- Philadelphia won four of six meetings this year and tied for the best record in baseball on the road at 48-33. Colorado’s mission is to earn split and return home where they had the second best record in the senior circuit on home turf with 51-30 record. The Rockies are only 6-18 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season, while the Phillies are 17-7 when facing the same kind of offense.

Bookmaker.com Series Odds: Phillies -170, Rockies +145

Nice Mix for a Tuesday

We ended up 2-2 for our NFL plays and forge ahead towards another week, with a nice variety of sports forthcoming. On the football side we have a Top Trend that has never lost. We have strong consensus who wins Game 163 tonight in baseball. The Best System around is in the NHL and you have to consider it even so early in the season at 86.2 percent. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – Brett Favre can still dial it up when completely focused. Though receiving strong criticism on blogs and forums, how could John Gruden and Jaws not be impressed with Favre’s performance? Whether he’s capable of doing this in December or January is another discussion. As many things as Aaron Rodgers seemingly does right, he has to start getting rid of the ball. Any top level quarterback is not going to be sacked eight times, period. It’s great to want a be a hero and make plays down the field, but you only hurt yourself and your team by being somewhat oblivious to offensive line deficiencies. The Packers are 2-2 and the game plans of the Packers coaching staff has helped make this a .500 team to date.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY UNDER on road teams like Montreal when the total is 5.5, off a road win by one goal against opponent off a road win scoring four or more goals. Since 2005, this system is 25-4, 86.2 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) As shown below, Troy is 7-0 ATS after committing three or more turnovers.

Free Baseball Pick -3) At latest count, over 80 percent of LCC members were betting the Twins and just over 60 percent wagered on the Over.

Guaranteed CFB Tuesday play from Paul Buck who is 29-18, 61.7 percent betting college football sides this season.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Trojans favored to cover in Sun Belt showdown

In the Sun Belt Conference, Troy was the expected to dominate, picked by every known preseason magazine in the country to do so. Their opening game 31-14 pasting to an ordinary MAC Bowling Green team, spoke of overconfidence and self indulgence. That was followed by being crushed by the top team in the land Florida 56-6 and a picture that looked so rosy in August, was starting to fade like flowers uncovered from an overnight frost.

Troy (2-2 SU&ATS) has gotten back on track with wins over a UAB and a 30-27 clutch effort at Arkansas State. The Trojans can make their slow start be a forgotten memory with a win against a very good SBC bunch from Middle Tennessee State.

The Blue Raiders (3-1 ATS) are off to their best start in eight seasons at 3-1 and could be the team to beat in the Sun Belt with a win at Troy. Quarterback Dwight Dasher has run the Mid. Tenn. State offense expertly in the first four games, averaging 28.5 points per game and over 400 yards total offense. This will be the Blue Raiders third consecutive road game after knocking off North Texas 37-21 as five point favorites and they are 13-5 ATS of a win.

Senior quarterback Levi Brown has offense flowing again for Troy, averaging 28.5 points the last two games. The defensive front is back to pressuring the opposing quarterback with six sacks and 26 quarterback hurries in four games. The Trojans have been turnover –prone thus far, with 10 miscues already, however are 7-0 ATS after committing three or more turnovers.

Bookmaker.com opened Troy as four-point favorites and the public has taken the most recognizable name from the Sun Belt and made them to six-point choice. It is understandable since the Trojans have either won or tied for the last four SBC crowns and if offense starts to click, they are 21-6 ATS when they score 28 or more points.

Mid. Tenn. State is a legitimate club; they won at Maryland 32-31 as more than a touchdown underdog and mauled Memphis 31-14. If Troy continues to be in a giving mood, the Blue Raiders will be ready; having forced 13 turnovers this season and they are 12-3 ATS in the month of October.

This Sun Belt matchup is known as the “World’s Largest Toga Party” and will be viewable on ESPN2 starting at 8 Eastern. Keep in mind the underdog is 1-6 ATS.

Minnesota and Detroit Showdown

What is the deal with baseball teams not being able to determine a winner after playing 162 games? In the entire history of Major League Baseball, there has only been eight previous one game playoffs to determine a division or league winner, however this will be the third in three years when Detroit travels to Minnesota.

This is turning out to be quite a 24-hour period at the Metrodome, with Brett Favre facing his old team and Vikings fans in full throat going up against the North Division rival the Green Bay Packers. This is followed up on Tuesday with AL Central rivals Detroit and the Twins having to settle their differences in the diamond.

The Twins and Tigers finished with identical 86-76 records; however there is no doubt who has the momentum. Minnesota closed the season 16-4, which included four victories over Detroit to force a second straight 163rd game. Besides playing exceptional baseball, the Twins will have the home field advantage, which is as intimidating a place in baseball when the place is packed. Officials in Minnesota decided to pull back the upper-deck outfield curtain to expand seating to more than 50,000 fans for the game. Tickets sold out within minutes. The Twins are 48-33 on their home field this season

"Every pitch," Tigers manager Jim Leyland said, "will be a roar."

The Tigers could use a roar of their own, winning four times in last 10 games to find themselves in this predicament. Subtract the 12-5 win over Chicago on Sept. 26 and the Detroit offensive has tallied 3.1 runs per game to finish the season. From a matchup standpoint, not many strong points for the Tigers to rally around with 7-11 record vs. Minnesota this season (the reason the game is in Minneapolis), including a 2-7 record when playing under the roof.

Playing in the Land of 10,000 Lakes and 50,000 screaming Twins fans is part of the reason the Tigers finished 35-46 on the road this year. Manager Leyland is hoping the bats wake up, with his club is 24-11 having lost three of their last four games this season.

What a spot for a rookie pitcher, which is what Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.40 ERA) faces. Porcello closed strong with 2-1 record, not allowing more than three runs in any of his last four starts. The down side for the right-hander is 0-2 mark, with a 6.30 ERA in two starts at the Metrodome.

Bookmaker.com has Minny as -165 money line favorites with total of 8.5. Scott Baker (15-9, 4.36) has the assignment for Ron Gardenhire and likes the setup. “There's no way to go around the fact that we're playing in the Dome and not in Detroit," said Twins right-hander. "I think we've seen in the past how well we play in front of our fans and how much it can affect the outcome of the game. We're all very excited to be here at the Dome."

Minnesota is 24-7 in home games with an on-base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games and they are 24-7 when Baker starts as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last three seasons.

For totals players, the side might be an indication of how to bet the total. The Twinkies are 14-5 OVER at home with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games this season. Detroit on the other hand is 16-6 UNDER as an underdog of +125 to +175 in 2009.

Don’t look to history to leave many clues, with the home team 4-4 in play-in games. First pitch is 5:07 Eastern on TBS and possibly the winner is told by the line. Detroit is 30-59 as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons and Minnesota is 76-40 as a home favorite of -110 or higher in the same time span.

The winner gets the Yankees in New York on Wednesday to start ALDS.

Brief Monday Update with Great News

Because there is so little action today besides Monday Night football and a couple of hockey games, no regular information today.

I would like to note 3Daily Winners finished No.1 in baseball at The Sports Eye monitor and I believe No.1 at the Free Sports Monitor if they update their recent MLB records, otherwise we finished second if they don’t. One heck of a year.

I’ll have MLB series previews starting later today.

All Favre all the Time

In case you haven’t heard, President Obama has made this Monday national “Brett Favre Day”, as a way to celebrate the future Hall of Famer and everyone can quit their jobs, only to return the next day since they had a change of heart and time to think about. Make no mistake; while Green Bay and Minnesota is a heated rivalry known primarily in the Upper Midwest, it takes on a national meaning this Monday Night.

Like the graphic ESPN showed Saturday night, can you imagine Derek Jeter in Boston uniform, Larry Bird playing for the Lakers or for longtime college football fans, what about Woody Hayes wearing a blue and maize tie with a Michigan hat. Some things in life aren’t supposed to be yet, Joe Montana wore a Kansas City uniform and Emmett Smith played in Arizona before calling it quits.

The game everyone has been waiting for has taken on added significance because of its importance in the NFC North race. The Packers (2-1 SU &ATS) and Vikings (2-1 ATS) will be playing for more than just Brett Favre, when they get together on Monday. The Vikings are 3-0, thanks in large part to Favre’s last second heroics last week against San Francisco. They have won five straight games as divisional hosts but are 2-3 ATS in that span. Minnesota trails in the all time series 49-45-1, having lost five of last six, but is 19-8 ATS in home games after a win by six or less points.

Since the day Aaron Rodgers fell on draft day to the Green Bay Packers, his professional career has had a peculiar path, through no fault of his own. The next chapter is written tonight and he would love nothing better than to be the star that leads the Packers to victory in this arresting contest. Unfortunately, Rodgers has had to have more moves that a salsa dancer, since the best blocking scheme the Green Bay offensive line has come up with is the “look out” block, with Rodgers sacked 12 times already. The Packers are 17-7 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy and 14-5 ATS in divisional games.

The wagering public has been hitting Minnesota hard, moving them from three-point favorites to 4.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total at 45.5. Minnesota is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games at the MetroDome. This head-to-head series has seen some significant trends, particularly the games in Minnesota, where dogs are on a 13-3 ATS run, and the OVER is 6-1.

Green Bay covers if their run defense holds up. The Packers are allowing a respectable 3.9 yards per carry; however teams have shown no fear in taking them on, averaging 33 attempts. This means keeping Adrian Peterson in check, no easy task. The offensive line has to perform. For all the talk over the last few years about the Vikings run defense, Mike McCarthy’s schemes have worked pretty well. Keep Rodgers from getting rug burns and attack Minnesota secondary with three and four receiver sets. The Vikes are notorious for weak special teams, win the “under the radar” stat decidedly to put offense in better scoring positions.

Minnesota covers if they do what everyone else has done to Packers O-line, abuse them. Jered Allen probably hasn’t slept all week thinking about how many times he could sack Rodgers. Green Bay’s run game isn’t strong enough to offset their lack of ability to move the chains without the pass. One word said three times- Attack, Attack, Attack. The Vikings have gained 407 yards rushing in last two games against the Pack, why shouldn’t they do it again, especially if Favre can put them in right play against run blitzes. Feed Peterson like a hungry tiger. The pass rush isn’t going to get Rodgers every time, the secondary has to make sure they stick with Packers’ receivers, as Rodgers is well-respected for ability to throw deep accurately.

This will be a spectacle.

Monday Night System – Play On a division favorite of a touchdown or less that has won two straight games. (26-9 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Load it up for another NFL Sunday

USC flexed their considerable muscles, which send us to losing day. Yesterday was one of the craziest days I’d seen in awhile. The Best System looks in on big Ravens and pats matchup, picking a winner with 82.1 percent side. The Top Trend looks at another important AFC contest with one team 12-1.Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – Since Joe Paterno has taken over as coach art Penn State, there has been 893 coaching changes in D-1 or FBS football.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road teams where the line is +3 to -3, with a turnover margin of +1 a game or better on the season, after a game where they committed one or less turnovers. Teams like the Baltimore Ravens are 23-5. 82.1 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) The Pittsburgh Steelers are 12-1 ATS in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite.

Free Football Pick -3) Ken is 8-2 in the NFL and has more courage than I taking Oakland plus the points.

Guaranteed NFL Plays with Paul Buck's Sunday Night Soluntion.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

NFL Week 4 Previews

This Sunday starts the bye weeks in the NFL, which means fewer offerings to choose from; however there are a few real beauties to tug at the heart of any sports bettor. Baltimore has looked as strong as any team in the league and will have chance to prove their worth in New England. Surprising unbeatens New Orleans and the Jets will try and stay that way in Bayou country. Denver was one of the top play against teams for season wins, but they are making a mockery of those tickets with 3-0 start and invite Dallas to town. Last year’s AFC division champions Tennessee and Miami will against try to scratch in the win column for first time in 2009.

Baltimore at New England 1:00E CBS

Baltimore (3-0 SU&ATS) has been one the AFC’s best teams in the first three weeks, picking up right where they left off a year ago. The Ravens continue to be an extremely reliable bet under coach John Harbaugh, going 17-5 against the spread. So far Baltimore is dominating, outscoring opponents by 16.7 points per game. Here they will take on a 2-1 New England (1-2 ATS) club that comes off its best performance of the year, a 26-10 win over previously unbeaten Atlanta. The Patriots have been solid in the month of October under head coach Bill Belichick with a 24-12 ATS record. They have also won each of the last four meetings with the Ravens, going 3-1 ATS in that span, but will be looking to snap a stretch of five straight losses at home when coming off another home game.

Keys to the Game-

Most experts are wondering how New England is sixth in total defense. Baltimore will want to find out themselves, lining up in I-formation and ramming it down the Patriots throat and see how they react. QB Joe Flacco is taking more shots down the field and New England’s secondary isn’t alarming anyone. The Ravens are ravenous 9-2 ATS after a win by 10 or more points and if Tom Brady thought he’s seen pressure thus far, wait until he sees all the black helmets coming his way this week.

The Patriots ran the ball 39 times last week and need to have that same type of commit against Baltimore. The yards won’t come freely against Ray Lewis and company, but it will slow down pass rush and establish New England can play just as physical. This helps the passing game if safety Ed Reed is forced to be involved against the run. New England is 41-17-2 ATS as non-division home favorite and Tom Brady needs pass protection and receivers to get open against sticky Ravens secondary. The Pats will not only need big game from Randy Moss, but other pass catchers must come thru also.

3DW Line – New England 2.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -1.5, 45

N.Y. Jets at New Orleans 4:05E CBS

Two unbeaten teams square off in a non-conference showdown in New Orleans, as the Saints host the Jets. The Saints (3-0 SU&ATS) came into 2009 with high expectations; the Jets did not, making this meeting all the more intriguing. In fact, two of New York’s first three wins came as an underdog. The Jets (3-0 SU&ATS) will be looking to extend a five-game SU & ATS winning streak by road teams in this head-to-head series. They have a 4-1 SU & ATS edge over the Saints in those five games; however have lost four in a row SU & ATS on the road vs. NFC foes. New Orleans has scored 40.0 points per game in its sensational start and has now gone 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall. Head coach Sean Payton’s team is on a 6-1-1 ATS stretch at home and has scored 23 points or more in 13 straight contests as hosts.

Keys to the Game-

The wheels will be spinning as Rex Ryan matches defensive prowess with Sean Payton’s offense. This is a different sort of game for the New York defense, as they have brought pressure incessantly. Drew Brees has the smarts and personnel to beat New York defenders, thus, look for Ryan to have game plan to make the Saints work for every first down. The Jets are 7-2 ATS off a win and understand the best way to prevent New Orleans from scoring is running the ball effectively and keeping Brees as spectator. New York is ninth in rushing yards but must do better than on 3.7 yards per carry.

New Orleans film study has shown nobody has gotten the Jets out of comfort zone early. Look for coach Payton and Brees to attack New York like a native with a fresh plate of jambalaya. Move the ball around, score early and see if Mark Sanchez can play from behind. The Flyboys are allowing 3.9 yards per carry, keep feeding the running game that averages five YPC. New Orleans is 9-1 ATS as a favorite and has forced three turnovers per game. Force the Jets to play perfect football on the road.

3DW Line – New Orleans by 6.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New Orleans -7.5, 45.5

Tennessee at Jacksonville 1:00E CBS

The AFC South was believed to be premier division again in 2009, but only Indianapolis boasts a winning record after three weeks. The most disappointing team is Tennessee (1-2 ATS), who comes into this divisional affair at Jacksonville with a 0-3 mark. The Titans have now lost their last five games overall and are 1-4 ATS in that span. That represents their longest losing skid since the opening of the 2006 campaign. They have also lost their last three vs. AFC South rivals, both SU & ATS. Tennessee has played well in Jacksonville though, going 8-4 SU & ATS the last dozen trips. The Jaguars (1-2, 2-1 ATS) broke in the win column last week at Houston and are 2-0 ATS in divisional games thus far. However, they are on a brutal 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS run as hosts in what could be again a far less than capacity crowd. Nine of the last 13 games between these teams in Jacksonville have gone UNDER.

Keys to the Game-

Coach Jeff Fisher has dismissed all playoff talk; he just wants his team to win a game. Kerry Collins is catching heat in Nashville, but he wishes his receivers would catch more of his passes, with double digits drops on the season. The running game is sixth in the league and could be even more effective with improved passing. The Titans special teams have been tumultuous; costing them much needed win in New Jersey last Sunday. Just being averaging this week would be severe upgrade. Tennessee is 7-2 ATS as road favorite and must contain Maurice Jones-Drew; otherwise 29th rated pass defense could really be exploited.

Jacksonville feels much better after road win in Houston and thinks they are figuring things out. Defensively, they continue to tweak the pass-rushing elements of its 3-4 defense. The idea is to cause uncertainty and Kerry Collins isn’t a bowl of confidence at the moment. In order to raise havoc, the Jaguars have to limit RB Chris Johnson, who presents problems in the open field. The Jags may be lousy at home, but they are 17-6 ATS off a road win against a division rival. Give David Garrard time in the pocket and he takes advantage of Titans secondary and suddenly Jacksonville is .500.

3DW Line – Jacksonville by 2

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Tennessee -3, 41.5

Buffalo at Miami 4:05E CBS

Buffalo and Miami are already in trouble in the AFC East race, and each has a difficult opening three games to thank for it. Miami (0-3 SU&ATS) has yet to win after finishing 11-5 a year ago. All three of their opponents have a winning record this season, thanks in part to playing the Dolphins. Buffalo (1-2, 2-1 ATS) has a win over Tampa Bay to its credit but sandwiched that with unimaginable loss at New England and being beaten by better New Orleans club. For the Dolphins, this will be the first divisional test of 2009, and they swept the Bills a year ago as part of a 4-2 SU & ATS mark vs. AFC East rivals. They are just 3-14 ATS as divisional hosts the last six seasons. The Bills are 7-3 ATS on the road in divisional games under coach Dick Jauron, and 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS against Miami since 2004. Favorites have accumulated an 18-7 SU & 16-9 ATS record in the last 25 series meetings.

Keys to the Game –

Buffalo didn’t blitz as much against Drew Brees, respecting his knowledge and big play talent. That won’t be the case this week, as it will be the kitchen sink and whatever else they can round up as Chad Henne makes first NFL start. If Henne is rattled, the Bills should unleash passing game. It’s a travesty Terrell Owens 185-game streak of pass catches came to an end. Buffalo didn’t bring T.O. in to be decoy, yet he and Lee Evans have 13 total receptions, that is ridiculous offensive concept. Buffalo is 3-10-1 ATS as AFC East road favorites, they will have to avoid being run on like last week (222 yards) if they want to side-step another defeat.

Chad Henne is going to have WTF moments after misreading Buffalo blitzes, which means he better know where tight end Anthony Fasono is at all times, similar to Linus. (Security blanket, work with me) Miami will have to establish running game to take pressure off Henne and the Dolphins O-line should draw confidence from Bills performance last week. The Fins D is third against the run at 66 yards per game and would like to make Buffalo as one-dimensional as possible. Miami desperately needs a W and to reestablish home field edge where they are only 3-14 ATS over the last three seasons.

3DWLine –Miami by 3.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Buffalo -1, 37

Dallas at Denver 4:15E FOX

The Broncos (3-0 ATS) have been the biggest surprise in the NFL in the early going, winning their first three games in the face of an expected rebuilding campaign. Since the miracle at Cincinnati, the Broncos have outscored their next two opponents by a 50-9 margin. If you consider what the Bengals have done since, Denver’s resume looks even stronger. Head coach Josh McDaniels’ team will return home for a showdown with Dallas in Week 4, trying to improve a record of 1-5 ATS when hosting the NFC since 2006. The Cowboys (2-1 SU&ATS) are back on the road after a two-game homestand, making their first trip to the Mile High City since Jay-Z rapped “Hard Knock Life”. Dallas is 7-1 ATS as road favorites of seven-points or less. The last five meetings between these teams have gone OVER the total.

Keys to the Game-

How did Denver find the NFL’s top defense after finishing 29th last season? It’s helped playing the Browns and Raiders the last two weeks, nevertheless only one opponent has scored a touchdown on the Broncos this season. This will be truer litmus test, as the last two foes had not capacity to throw the ball down the field, which Tony Romo does. The Dallas QB isn’t always the sharpest knife in Ginzu collection and will take the bait throwing into bad coverage situations. The Broncos are 7-3-1 ATS off a 14-point or more victory and will have to be stout in defensive line and open up offense for Kyle Orton.

As it turns out, Romo has a little Jessica Simpson in him, he likes being the star. Coach Wade Phillips and OC Jason Garrett would just as soon continue to run for 200 yards a game and have Romo make enough plays for Dallas to score 28 points per game. Romo has flair (good and bad), but the coaches would rather see 2nd and 4, compared to 2nd and 10. On defense, Dallas wants to win first down in the trenches, forcing Orton to be playmaker from the pocket. The Boys like their chances in that matchup. The Cowboys are 7-1-1 ATS as small change faves (three or less) and can be expected to use similar coverage tactics on enigmatic Brandon Marshall which worked so well on Steve Smith last Monday.

3DWLine – Denver 1.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -3, 42.5