The last three posts we are 9-1, let’s line them up for Saturday and see how we do. We have NBA system in Brew Town today at 30-6 ATS. Top Trend flat dead perfect and Steve of the LCC goes after yet another MLB Free winner. Good Luck
What I thought yesterday- Everyone assumed the NFL teams know what they are doing when it comes to drafting, they don’t. Plenty of teams make lots of mistakes. Jacksonville’s first pick was a reach and many others were questionable.
Personally I hope Jimmy Clausen and Tim Tebow go on to have long NFL careers, proving all the nay-sayers wrong.
Baltimore picking Mount (blob) Cody could turn out to be a steal. He fits their defense and if he decides to mature and drop 50 lbs., could be play-yer.
Free Basketball System -1) Play Against teams like the Bucks when the line is +3 to -3, who are average defensive team, 43.5-45.5 percent allowed, against a weaker defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after three straight games permitting a shooting percentage of 47 percent or higher. This system is 30-6 ATS, 83.3 percent.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Adam Wainwright and St. Louis is 11-0 in road night games over the last two seasons.
Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve of the Left Coast Connection sees Tampa Bay bouncing back from upset loss.
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Charlotte and Milwaukee are in 0-2 holes and will be looking for energy from the home patrons attempting to hold serve in what is a must win scenario. Oklahoma City got the first of two they needed in Game 3 and also have to come up with a another victory, fully understanding what a daunting task it would be to go to L.A. having to win down 3-1 in the series. The roundball adventure continues for home clubs needing to come up big.
Orlando at Charlotte 2:00E TNT
Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson have accounted for 51.2 percent of the Bobcats offense, which suggests that others have to tickle the twine since Charlotte’s has two “L’s” to begin the series.
Charlotte is not a good outside shooting team, depending more on slashing and driving to the rim and collecting fouls for free throw attempts. Their loss Wednesday night was perfect illustration off what has gone wrong.
The Bobcats could not solve Orlando’s defensive schemes and committed 19 turnovers and had 17 fewer attempts from the charity stripe than the Magic (35-18).
"Our defense is keeping us in it, and our offense is keeping us out of the game," said center Tyson Chandler. "We can't come off what we do and just look for our jump shots. We're not a jump-shot team and not a 1-on-1 team.” Charlotte is 9-18 ATS after not covering two of their last three against the spread this season.
The Bobcats have to rev up the offense and are 15-5 ATS after scoring 80 points or less and 16-5 ATS after totaling 35 points or less in the first half.
They are two-point underdogs to Orlando, with total of 184.5 and the Magic are 16-4 ATS off two exact home contests. Coach Stan Van Gundy will seek similar balance as the last contest with five double digit scorers and the top four averaging 10-12 shots each. Orlando has won five of last six in downtown Charlotte, covering four times and the UNDER is 5-1.
Atlanta at Milwaukee 7:30E ESPN
The Bucks have had ample time to correct their inadequacies, last playing Tuesday night. Milwaukee has been within contact in both games with Atlanta, but the general sense was the Hawks have not been really threatened in the series.
Milwaukee has to improve dramatically in transition defense if they expect to come out a winner in Game 3.
“As athletic as they are, it’s not like anybody’s dunking in a crowd on us. They’re wide open. The balls are going up, and they’re finishing them,” coach Scott Skiles explaining the 11 dunks and 19 layups his team allowed in the first two games. “All we’re comparing ourselves to is ourselves. We normally don’t give that stuff up. We need to not give that easy stuff up.”
The Bucks were the best cover team in the NBA this season at 51-28-3 ATS, but have dropped the first two in postseason. They are 14-4 ATS at the Bradley Center after two games as a road underdog.
The Bucks fans will be cascading boo’s down to Atlanta’s Josh Smith, who evidently has had too much time off and wants a part-time Travel Channel gig.
Smith was asked about what he would with his free time in Milwaukee and if he would ever vacation there. “Would you go? Would you go? Would you go up there?” Smith responded. “Everybody knows there ain’t nothing to do in Milwaukee, man. Everybody knows that.” Hello boo-birds.
Atlanta is a one-point underdog at Bookmaker.com and will be presented with a challenge, since Milwaukee is 19-6 and 14-10-1 ATS at home in 2010, however two of the spread losses have come from the Hawks. The Bucks are 13-4 ATS after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers and the Birds are 4-16 ATS as visitors in all playoff matchups.
L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City 9:30E ESPN
The Lakers had been dismissing talk of uninspired play for over a month, saying when the playoffs arrived they would be like a warship ready for battle, with all hands on deck. In their first true challenge of the playoffs (a No. 1 seed winning at home over a No. 8 doesn’t count), Los Angeles lacked the mental and physical capacity to succeed on the road, losing in the fourth quarter to Oklahoma City.
The Thunder outworked and showed greater desire in winning the crucial final 12 minutes 27-21, after holding one-point lead in the final stanza.
Oklahoma City is now 6-1 ATS against teams with a winning road record of late and can even this series if the Phil Jackson’s lethargic club settles for long jumps shots (31 three-point attempts) and doesn’t work the ball better into the paint. When Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison were paired together, they bottled up the Lakers big men in the lane and they offered little resistance in demanding the ball.
Though smaller in stature, OKC’s big guys were superior in boxing out the taller L.A. bunch and destroyed them on the glass with effort and hustle 53-39.
Kobe Bryant and his teammates continue to be play without discipline and have the patience of a three year old. Kevin Durant had more free throws than the Lake Show (13-12) and Bryant returned to selfish ways of seeking his shot, which could be a function of the rest of the Lakers players not actively working to take quality shots. It’s no wonder they are 13-24 ATS in second half of the season this season.
The Thunder are two-point favorites and are 13-3 ATS when the favored by 4.5 or less, with L.A. 2-8 ATS in reverse role of 4.5 or fewer points underdog. With the total at 193.5, the purple clad Lakers are 12-4 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season, losing by 1.9 points a game.
For lowered seeded Colorado and Ottawa the task is simple – Win or enjoy your vacation. The Senators have already survived one elimination contest going to the third overtime to keep the NHL grim reaper away, as Matt Carkner scored at 7:06 to give Ottawa a 4-3 upset win as whopping +255 money line underdogs.
“There’s a lot of belief and trust in this room,” said the Senators’ Matt Cullen who created the screen for game winner. “We maintain a positive attitude and good feeling in here that we’re still in it.” Ottawa is back on home ice where they have lost twice already to Pittsburgh and is 3-9 in home games after allowing three goals or more in three straight tilts.
Pittsburgh for the second consecutive year let a wonderful opportunity slip thru their gloves, losing a Game 5 home contest with 3-1 lead.
“A lot happened (in the overtimes) with penalties and chances and posts, but that’s just the way it works out,” Sidney Crosby said. “Unfortunately, we didn’t get it done here, but we’ve got to find a way to regroup and be ready to go to Ottawa.” Pittsburgh is 26-8 off a home loss over the last two seasons.
Bookmaker.com has Ottawa as +150 home underdogs with Ov5.5 total and they are 12-18 in their own rink having lost two of three. The Senators are 8-2 OVER in all games this month. This is Pittsburgh second chance to end this series and the last thing they want is a Game 7 off two losses and the Pens are 13-7 in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored four or more goals.
Colorado will try to live another day playing at the Pepsi Center, taking on San Jose who is starting to play like the top seed of the Western Conference. The Avalanche has two goals in the last three contests and things could be heading downhill.
San Jose's game plan for this series was to commence hitting the smaller and less experienced Colorado crew, with the hope of wearing them down physically. The Sharks have controlled the puck for long periods of time in winning three of the last four contests and in the 5-0 shutout in Game 5, they finally penetrated goalie Craig Anderson's armor.
Avalanche coach Joe Sacco doesn't want to believe that the Sharks have worn down his young team, which is missing several injured forwards, including Milan Hejduk and Peter Mueller.
"This is playoff hockey," he said. "We shouldn't be tired this time of the year. We should be re-energized. The level of play picks up in the playoffs, and at this time of the year you need to find a way to battle through it." Maybe the coach is right, nonetheless his squad is 10-20 home games after two or more consecutive losses.
Colorado is +160 underdog with the total hovering at Un5.5. The Avs are 8-3 revenging a zero on the scoreboard and San Jose has a long history of failure in Game 6 setting with 1-11 mark. The Sharks will still be dangerous and are 17-4 after permitting two goals or less three games in a row and are 12-5 OVER off a home win by two goals or more this season.
The Boston Celtics looked like a bunch of old geezers the latter part of the schedule, but have found playoff basketball the perfect tonic for what ailed them. San Antonio is elderly at certain positions and too small to match up with Dallas, yet they return home 1-1. The Utah team bus can officially use their handicap sticker for parking with all their injuries, yet they could go up in the series over Denver with a win tonight.
Boston at Miami 7:00E ESPN
The Heat were a popular wager twice in Boston and they came up short both times as the Celtics went back to what they do best, play defense and take good shots. Playoff basketball can do that for team, the daily grind of the regular season is replaced by focusing on the strengths and weakness of just one foe, creating a singular mindset.
Boston is 13-1 and 10-4 ATS against Miami in just over three seasons of playing the Heat. This provides a certain comfort level not easily achieved, even performing on the postseason road. “We’re figuring their backs are against the wall and they’re thinking that if they don’t get Game 3 then this is pretty much over,” Kevin Garnett said. “I know that’s what I would be thinking so we’re going to have to be ready for that.” Garnett’s team is 19-7 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more.
Miami is 7-23 ATS at home after playing consecutive road games yet is not showing panic outwardly. “Minor adjustments, of course, but energy, effort, mental, things like that. Those are the things we’ve been so good at so far this year,” Heat forward Udonis Haslem said. “We’ve got to get back to that.”
DiamondSportsbook.com has Boston catching four points, with total of 182 and they are 22-11 ATS as visitors when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last two seasons. The C’s are 10-2 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more this year. The Heat will attempt to get off the canvas and are 28-13 ATS after allowing 105 points or more, coupled with 9-0 OVER mark off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points.
Dallas at San Antonio 9:30E ESPN
Tim Duncan, he of the aching knees, having lost a step of quickness and having hops like teammate Matt Bonner (ouch), yet is masquerading as the player he was 10 years ago, averaging 26 points and 12.5 rebounds against Dallas.
The Duncan drop-step is back and the lack of quicks has been replaced with smarter positioning to release shots faster before opponent can gather itself.
“For two or three weeks there toward the end of the season, I was starting to wear down a little bit,” Duncan stated. Off the 102-88 thumping, the Spurs are 10-3-1 ATS after breaking the century mark in points.
The Mavericks have looked a little too dependent on offense from Dirk Nowitzki thus far in the series, benefitting from his near perfect 36-point performance in Game 1 and sagging noticeably when he was 9-24 from the field, totaling up 24 points Wednesday night. Dallas is 14-3 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite and needs production in the paint from their centers. In the opener Erick Dampier and Brandon Heywood totaled 15 points, in Game 2, a meaningless two points.
The Spurs are 3.5-point pick at the AT&T Center where they have covered seven of previous nine. Dallas is spirited 26-15 ATS on the road and 13-3 UNDER revenging a home loss.
Denver at Utah 10:30E ESPN2
If the shoulders of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer look a little bigger, it’s for good reason; they are forced to carry the load for Utah. Williams had 33 points and 14 assists in 114-111 upset in Denver and Boozer added 20 points and 15 rebounds as the injury-riddled Jazz tied the series.
“D-Will and Booze, they had their way,” said Nuggets point guard Chauncey Billups noted after the contest.
The action moves to Salt Lake City were the Jazz are 32-9 and 26-13-2 ATS, winning by 9.5 points per game. That places the onus on Denver and they are 29-12 ATS after consecutive tilts as a home favorite over the last two seasons.
“We missed some easy shots, some lay-ups and we kind of felt it at the end. But we know what we have to do. We’ll get one over there. It’s playoff basketball.” Johan Petro said.
Denver will have turn up defensive intensity, since it has been on low wattage, with Utah shooting 54.7 and 52.9 percent in initial two contests of the first round. It will be up to interim coach Adrian Dantley to convince his players to work as harder on the other end of the floor and they are 13-3 ATS after allowing 105 points or more three straight games.
The Jazz are a two-point pick before what should be a roaring crowd and Utah is 8-1 ATS after two straight as an underdog this season. With the way this series is being played the listed total of 216 seems like forgone conclusion, however the Nuggets are is 8-0 UNDER away from home after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight skirmishes and coach Jerry Sloan’s club is 15-4 UNDER in home whites after scoring 110 points or more.
The Minnesota Twins were picked to win the Central Division of the American League and they have gotten off to the kind of start that has propelled them right to the top with 11-5 record. The Twins just completed their first-ever homestand at Target Field with 6-3 record and head back on the road where they have begun the year 5-2.
Kansas City was not picked to win the division and is not considered to be a contender. Thus far the Royals have also played to form with 6-9 record. Don’t blame the offense; Kansas City is fourth in the AL in runs scored at 4.7. The culprit has been the relief pitching which has been atrocious with 6.95 ERA and five blown saves in less than three weeks.
These teams met last week in the Twin Cities with Minnesota winning the series and the Twins will look to go 5-0 in series to start 2010, as they embark on nine game road trip.
Minnesota has been spectacular as series starter with a 38-16 record playing on Friday’s over the last three seasons. They will give the ball to Carl Pavano (2-1, 4.96 ERA, 1.347 WHIP) who was roughed up for seven runs and 11 hits in 3 1/3 innings in last week’s 10-5 loss to the Royals, however he is 7-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last two seasons, thanks to run support of eight runs an outing. (Team's Record)
Kansas City is a +123 ML underdog with total Ov9.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com and will start Gil Meche (0-1). The right-hander has been completely ineffective as seen with 11.58 ERA and WHIP of 2.358.
“Two games in a row where I can’t get away from the big inning, both happening early in the ballgame,” Meche said. “You’ve got to make better pitches. … If you don’t do that, you’re going to pay for it.” The Royals are the complete opposite of their opponent with 7-21 mark on Friday’s.
Game 1 Edge: Minnesota
The Kansas City offense has clicked much better with the much-traveled and injured Scott Podsednik being in the lineup. Podsednik is batting robust .449 and has also taken eight walks in his 13 starts. He’s also been a base-running thief, stealing seven of eight in 2010.
"I don't think there's a coincidence at all," manager Trey Hillman said of Podsednik being out of the lineup in two losses to Toronto this week. "You take that speed [out] of the lineup and you take that kind of on-base percentage, the threat of stealing a base, it's important, just because of the pace that he's kept up to this point.”
The Royals begin the series 2-4 at Kauffman Stadium and are horrendous 16-37 at home since last year and hand the horsehide to Luke Hochevar (2-0, 2.89, 1.393). The 26-year old righty was not at his best against the Twins last Sunday, with five walks along with six hits in his six innings, but he pitched his way out of several jams and got the win.
The old baseball pitching edict of “throw strikes” is a big reason why the Twins have started so well. Coming into the weekend the pitching staff has yielded a Major League-low 37 bases on balls, which helps prevents big innings.
Minnesota has won their last 18 of 23 against teams with losing records and will start Nick Blackburn (1-1, 6.05, 1.499). The deliberate right-hander is off two shaky starts (10 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings) and has to do a better job locating pitches, being tagged for six home runs in fewer than 20 innings this season. Blackburn and the Twinkies are 7-19 in his roads starts.
Game 2 Edge: Kansas City
There was a great deal of concern about Minnesota bullpen once closer Joe Nathan went down. To this point those concerns are unwarranted with 2.62 ERA, six for six in save chances and better than 3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. If Kevin Slowey (2-1, 2.45, 1.255) can pitch like his last outing, the pen will be well-rested. Slowey has an easy arm motion and excellent feel for how to pitch and threw eight innings of one run; five-hit ball with 9 K’s and no walks.
In the series finale, Kansas City counters with Brian Bannister (0-1, 4.59, 1.302) who commands a 90-ish fastball that has late movement and curveball that has big sweeping motion. He pitched fairly well in first two starts in allowing three runs over 12+ innings but bullpen turned those potential wins into no-decision defeats. Bannister was smacked around at Toronto, which he blamed on poor mental preparation.
Game 3 Edge: Minnesota
For this week’s series selection, we bring in Rocky Atkinson of RocketmanSports.com.
“I feel like Minnesota will win this series against Kansas City this weekend. Minnesota is 26-13 overall vs Kansas City the past 3 years including a very nice 14-4 at Kansas City. The key to this series is going to be the bullpens. Minnesota bullpen has a 2.62 ERA overall this year and a 1.45 ERA on the road this season. The Kansas City bullpen on the other hand, has been ripped this year with a 6.95 ERA overall and an 8.41 ERA at home on the season. Minnesota is third in runs scored and the Royals are dead last in the American League in runs allowed.”
3Daily Winners Pick: Minnesota
DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Minnesota -155, Kansas City +125
The National Football League generated their annual buzz with the release of the schedule. Each home teams fan base immediately started speculating what their team’s record might look like except for Minnesota (they have grandfatherly quarterback from the South who likes to take his time) and Oakland (who doesn’t know the Raiders will have losing record). Sports bettors also like to think about the future, especially the prime time matchups. We’ll start with key games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights, all prime wagering territories.
Thursday feels different
The NFL took John Madden’s advice from several years ago and has made opening weekend a big deal, just like baseball does. That includes a top shelf game to whet the football appetite and Minnesota at New Orleans certainly fits the bill. The home teams are 7-1 and 5-1-2 ATS since this was introduced.
The NFL started sneaking in Thursday games a few years ago and had a more complete slate in the second half starting last year. In order to keep their partners from FOX and CBS happy, for the most part the games lacked pizzazz with mostly mediocre teams playing.
Not this year, bettors will see Baltimore at Atlanta (Week 10), Cincinnati at the N.Y. Jets (Thanksgiving night) and Indianapolis at Tennessee (Week 14) to name a few quality matchups.
Sunday Night Adventures
Since NBC took over the Sunday night package, sports bettors have made this an instant turnaround scenario. This is mostly square action, with NFL bettors trying to cover losses or pressing wins seeking the bigger score. While neither strategy is recommended, no debating the quality of games this far out before the season begins.
Week 1 we have the traditional Dallas and Washington rivalry, almost always good theatre. A number of other excellent divisional matchups will take place like the Jets at Miami (Week 3), the Giants at Philadelphia (Week 11), Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Week 13) and the Eagles at Cowboys (Week 14). One other confrontation could be a ratings bonanza with Minnesota and certain quarterback, visiting his former place of employment Green Bay on October 25.
The Packers are also involved in other entertaining contests, hosting Jerry Jones club in Week 9 and making trip to New England for the first time in eight years on Dec. 19.
Week 2 will conjure up a great deal of intrigue in the “Manning Brothers Bowl” at Indianapolis.
Monday’s with Tirico, Chucky and Jaws
A good portion of last year’s Monday action was terrific, especially early in the year. John Gruden’s enthusiasm carried thru and he and Ron Jaworski talked football for three hours making the booth more true football fan friendly.
Their first assignment is Baltimore at the New York Jets, with Rex Ryan going up against his former team. Later that same night, San Diego makes another opening game appearance on MNF versus another division rival, Kansas City, where they are 3-8 ATS.
This season will feature 13 division rivalry contests, always a treat for the sports bettors with the most anticipated one being Philadelphia in rematch at Donovan McNabb’s new crib in Washington on Nov. 15.
There is only one non-conference hookup and hostility could be in the air if Brett Favre actually does return. Minnesota will visit the new Meadowlands and the New York Jets, which will down as an asterisk in his storied career and one Jets’ fans will not forget for many reasons.
Changes in the schedule
Roger Goodell tried to address the last part of the schedule to become more meaningful and all 16 games the final Sunday of the season will be divisional contests. While some question what Oakland at Kansas City and St. Louis at Seattle might mean, this writer applauds the effort in trying to make the end of the season not just several exhibitions that count in the standings.
In all, 28 division games will be played the last three weeks of the year (29.1 percent of the total).
The NFL has graciously stepped aside from the World Series for years on Sunday night’s in late October, but with falling ratings for the former national pastime, Goodell and the guys decided to make baseball’s life that much more difficult with Nov. 1 conflict of Pittsburgh at New Orleans.
A few scheduling observations………….
No team has a duller schedule than Buffalo. Besides no national TV games, all 16 Sunday contests have a 1:00 Eastern start time.
San Diego is notoriously slow starter, however anything less than 4-2 with at Kansas City, Jacksonville, at Seattle, Arizona, at Oakland and at St. Louis would qualify as not mentally prepared.
Cincinnati is seeking first back to back winning seasons in 28 years with fourth toughest schedule.
Kansas City will have Play Against sequences, with three pairs of two road games.
Cleveland won their last four contests a season ago and could start 2-0 going to Tampa Bay and hosting the Chiefs. The Browns close to the year is taxing. Three straight road games Weeks 13-15 and finishing at home with division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
Denver has three consecutive road games in Week 13-15.
Houston has Indianapolis at home and three of next four games against the NFC East to begin 2010.
Washington was 4-12 in 2009; however the power of Mike Shanahan leads to five national tilts.
The Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints move to the role of hunted and first road test in at San Francisco on Monday night.
Dallas finally broke late season blues; however they could return having to face (@) the Colts, Philly, Redskins, (@) Cardinals and (@) Eagles in final five weeks.
Matt Leinart will receive a quick baptism as the Arizona starting quarterback again with three of first four games on the road.
The Cardinals and Detroit have three consecutive home games in Weeks 12-14.
The Falcons have a road game on Oct. 17 and don’t wear visiting uniforms again until Nov. 21 with three home contests and a bye.
Pittsburgh will play three home games and three road games without suspended Ben Roethlisberger and when he returns three consecutive national telecasts at the Saints, Cincy and home with New England.
The normally profitable West to East three time zone games have nine occurrences, with seven having a 1:00 Eastern start (10:00 Pacific for West Coast teams). This is usually the best value early in the season, before teams have traveled much and the Falcons have Arizona and San Fran in town the first four weeks of regular season.
Didn’t sniff 4-0; however 3-1 will do as we move ahead. Steve of the LCC posts what he believes is another MLB winner. The Top Trend is reverse perfect and the Best System is 80.4 percent. Good Luck
What I learned today- A strong betting connection of mine made astute observation that the winner of the NBA playoff games can be made by the end of the first quarter thus far.
Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road teams like Texas with as below average AL hitting team (.265 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA of 3.75 or less), batting .200 or worse over their last five games. This system checks in at 41-10, 80.4 percent.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Houston and Felipe Paulino 0-10 against teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game.
Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve got us another winner and is betting Johan Santana will stop the Cubs.
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Over the next two days, the series switch to new locales with the home town fans clamoring for success from the guys in the short pants. A couple of the teams are in desperate straits and need to make something happen or they can start making summer vacation plans. One other squad doesn’t have its best player however can take the series lead with a victory before its loud and proud fans.
Cleveland at Chicago 7:00E TNT
The Bulls played the Cavaliers even for three quarters, unfortunately professional basketball is a four quarters contest and for those that can’t stand the NBA, saying you only have to watch the last quarter, they were nodding their head with pride about Game 2.
Chicago was tied after three quarters but was outscored 35-25 in the final 12 minutes, thanks to LeBron James doing his best Mariano Rivera impression as the closer. (James is well-known Yankees fan) James scored 15 of his 40 points in the final stanza, ruining the Bulls upset bid. “They call me the closer every time I come in the fourth quarter,” James said. “It’s my time to put the game away or do what I do best and that’s try to close the game the right way.” Cleveland is 14-4 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season.
Chicago will receive the energy from its home fans and the Bulls better start rampage from the opening tip, since nobody expects the Bulls to win four of the next five games. One Chi-Town player enduring himself to the locals is Joakim Noah, whose been a force on both ends of the floor and talking a little trash about Cleveland. He’s more than ready for next assignment. (Note picture- Noah not fazed by Zydrunas Ilgauskas Lithuanian mind-probe)
We can't get discouraged," Noah said. "They did what they were supposed to do. We'll have our fans ready to go for the next game and we'll be ready to go on Thursday."
The Bulls are a four-point underdog, with total of 193 and are 13-4 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses. Chicago is 13-4 UNDER playing with two days rest this season.
L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City 9:30E TNT
This is all fun and new for the Thunder, being in the postseason for the first time as members from the Sooner State. Oklahoma City lost both games to the defending champion L. A. Lakers, but they are far from discouraged.
"I think that our offense was phenomenal," Kevin Durant said. "Our energy on a defensive end was phenomenal. Of course you cannot play perfect defense an entire game. We got a lot of offensive, rebounds and we played hard.
Of course the next step in the progression is actually winning a game and the Thunder gives the impression they are well-equipped to do so. OKC is 14-5 ATS off a road loss and Bookmaker.com has installed them as 3.5-point favorites.
Thunder fans have enjoyed this young team’s rise all year and view this as the beginning of something much bigger and can hardly be disappointed no matter the outcome.
The Lakers were pushed to the end in Game 2, winning 95-92 as 5.5-point favorites, held to 37.5 percent shooting. Kobe Bryant returned to his usual self scoring 39 points, making 13 of 15 from the charity stripe. It’s a rare sight to see Los Angeles as an underdog, especially in a 1 vs 8 matchup and they are 33-18 ATS as a pooch and 10-2 UNDER in this role.
"We're going home to our crowd, which is gonna give us a lot of energy and we're gonna be ready to play," Jeff Green said Tuesday night. His team is 14-2 ATS after a contest with 15 or less assists this season.
Keep an eye on the total of 191.5 with Oklahoma City 12-2 UNDER at the Ford Center off a cover where they lost the game SU as an underdog.
Phoenix at Portland 10:00E NBA TV
Portland looked every bit like the underdog they were supposed to be, being man-handled by Phoenix 119-90 in Game 2 as 8.5-point underdogs. The news however is good on two fronts, a loss is still a loss whether it’s by one point or 29 and the Trailblazers are returning home.
We got a win," Portland guard Andre Miller said. "You don't want to lose like that any time, but we still are motivated. This is a seven-game series. (The Suns) did their job tonight, but we got a game, and it's a series. Now we have to go and try to protect our home court." Portland is 13-5 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season.
Phoenix can take pride in understanding and doing what it takes to win as they showed in last outing. They repeatedly ran the floor for easy transition buckets, forced Portland into missing shots with greater defensive intensity (38.2 percent) and spread the ball around with Jason Richardson and Grant Hill being key figures in the victory.
“We were just more aggressive getting the ball up the floor and moving bodies around so they weren’t set,” Steve Nash said, “and they weren’t able to zone it up as well.” That raised the Suns record to 14-4 ATS playing against a team with 60-70 winning percentage this campaign.
Game 3 opened as Pick and Portland has moved to one point underdog with 7-19 ATS record at the Rose Garden after a loss by 10 points or more.
The New Orleans Saints have been Super Bowl champions for two and half months and the time has come for their 31 competitors to replenish the resources with new faces, hopefully with some that can make a difference right out of college. That’s right, the NFL Draft has arrived and now ESPN and The NFL Network can send their armies of football gurus (66 at last count) into your living rooms for three days instead of two.
If you managed to keep a portion of your football winnings thru the basketball season, the NFL Draft is a fun and unique way to watch the festivities, since you are going to put in the time to watch, why not have a little something riding on it. (Not that were advocating gambling on sports –wink)
We checked out the latest at Sportsbook.com for a number of their props and here are the absolutely “Guaranteed” projected winners from wwwwweneverloseinfootballdotcon.
Number of Quarterbacks taken in Round One
Over Two -650 Under Two +425
Only one way to bet this prop and that is the Over if at all. The St. Louis Rams made their intentions clear by releasing Marc Bulger and that Sam Bradford was their man. Jimmy Clausen in either headed to Oakland, Buffalo or San Francisco, with worst case scenario being Minnesota. That leaves Tim Tebow or Colt McCoy. Neither is projected to go this high, unless somebody sees Tebow as multi-faceted performer, which is reach for the first round. A lot of extra juice for hard to win wager.
Number of Running Backs taken in Round One
Over 1.5 -380 Under 1.5 +290
C.J. Spiller is a lock in this round with his explosive speed and able to catch the ball on wheel-routes and screens. The Houston Texans were disappointed in Steve Slaton last season and San Diego needs a dependable “every down” back and Ryan Mathews will fit one of their needs. Play the Over as easy winner.
Number of Wide Receivers and Tight Ends taken in Round One
Over 2.5 -140 Under 2.5 +100
Dez Bryant may have a few personality quirks but talent is what matters in the NFL and he should be first wide receiver taken. Demaryius Thomas is thought to have too much ability and Baltimore wouldn’t mind putting together a young pitch and catch combo with Joe Flacco. Unless there is an unknown issue concerning tight end Germaine Gresham from Oklahoma, Cincinnati or some other NFL team will take him as “best available player”. Bet the Over.
Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One
Over 6.5 -300 Under 6.5 +220
Within the first 20 selections, Trent Williams, Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung, Bruce Campbell and Anthony Davis are presumed to be taken. Guard Mike Iupati of Idaho will fill a need in Green Bay, New York (Giants) or Pittsburgh, bringing the total to six. The means Charles Brown or Rodger Saffold, would have to be chosen and with the changes Dallas made to its roster, it is a sage bet they will take the seventh offensive linemen in the 2010 Draft. Remember, a lot of teams in the latter part of the first round will consider what happened earlier, take the Over.
Number of Defensive Tackles taken in Round One
Over 4.5 +160 Under 4.5 -200
It’s safe to assume Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy will go two and three in the draft barring a trade and Dan Williams and Jared Odrick will be first-rounders. That leaves Terrance (Mount) Cody as the wild card. Blogger-speak has San Diego thinking about Cody, seeking a replacement for Jamal Williams. If the Chargers are serious about the boom-or-bust Alabama product, they would be wiser to package their second pick (40th overall) to either Detroit or Tampa Bay who are presumed to have taken defensive tackles already and move down just a few slots and maybe get another pick from San Diego to help them. The Under looks like the right choice.
Number of Defensive Ends taken in Round One
Over Four -250 Under Four +190
Similar to the quarterback wager, we are working with even number, making this one-way wager. Derrick Morgan and Jason Pierre-Paul are foregone conclusions and if both are gone, Atlanta will take Everson Griffen from Michigan with their first choice. Beyond this trio, everyone else at this position is considered a reach, thus good value on the Under.
Jimmy Clausen - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be
Over 9.5 -115 Under 9.5 -115
Tough call on the former Domer, with Buffalo probably the best fit for Under play, however he could get killed like he did as a freshman in South Bend with the Bills O-Line. A small play on the Over, but it would be just like Oakland at No. 8 to pick the California raised QB.
Eric Berry - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be
Over 6.5 +140 Under 6.5 -180
Another challenging wager. Kansas City and Seattle will have to decide between Berry and an offensive lineman at five or six. The worst the Tennessee safety falls to is Cleveland at No. 7. Supporting the Under, with comparisons to Ed Reed fair and just too talented to pass up.
Russell Okung - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be
Over 4.5 +240 Under 4.5 -320
It’s either Okung or Trent Williams to help shore up offensive tackle position for Washington at No. 4 and will bet it is the former Okie State Cowboys that is taken. Bet Under.
Dez Bryant - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be
Over 11.5 -145 Under 11.5 +115
Could be wrong, but with Denver trading Brandon Marshall, they are planning on taking the much scrutinized Bryant or Demaryius Thomas with their 11th pick. If Eric Berry would fall to Cleveland, the Browns nab him; otherwise they will take Bryant, which the Broncos would prefer all things considered. Under is the winning side.
Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st
Ndamukong Suh -500 Gerald McCoy +350
McCoy got a few reporters excited listening to assistant coaches back in February, but once the dust settled Suh was the clear choice for Detroit.
Earl Thomas +120 Joe Haden -150
Going with the upset in this selection. Though Haden is cornerback, Thomas according to scouts is immediately prepared to make an impact at safety, possibly in Jacksonville.
Golden Tate +290 Demaryius Thomas -380
In terms of actual ability, Tate is more polished product with better hands and cleaner route runner. The difference is height, Thomas is 6’3 ½ and Tate is at 5’10 ½. Thomas earns the odd for that reason.
Eric Norwood +135 Jerry Hughes -170
This is almost stealing, Hughes is projected first round pick and Norwood is late second round at best.
Anthony Davis+170 Bryan Bulaga -220
This comes down to team opinions and needs. Davis is probably the better athlete and pass-blocker, however Bulaga is steadier, a better drive-blocker and graded out well in desire. Bulaga rings the bell as winner.
Brian Price - Will he be Selected in the 1st Round
Yes -130 No –Even
Going against the grain and voting No, here’s why. Though Price is elite interior pass rusher, he’s merely average against the run; this is where his instincts show up as ordinary. He has a good motor and doesn’t given up on plays when beaten and could eventually become a top line defensive tackle, with continued improvement. A chancy first rounder, but a solid pick in second round.
Pulled out the old Devo album (Whip it, whip it good) for a 3-0 Tuesday. We can actually improve on that number today with two plays from system that over 90 percent. The Top Trend takes place on the South Side of Chicago and the Free Play is in the Queen City. Good Luck
What I learned yesterday- The Reds rallied for two runs in the bottom of the eighth to defeat the Dodgers, 11-9. Cincinnati has six wins this season, and all have come in their last at-bat, tying a modern major-league record. Since 1900, only one other team posted each of its first six wins in its final turn at the plate: the 1970 Giants.
Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, with AL batting average of .265 or less, against decent starting pitcher (ERA of 4.20 or less), who are batting .225 or worse over their last five games. This system is incredible 44-4 and says to go against the Orioles and Rangers.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Mark Buehrle and the Pale Hose are 15-2 when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.
Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve got us a winner and is banking on the Dodgers to do the same.
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Two road teams and one playing at home look to stay away from having to win final three games of their opening round series. Buffalo and Vancouver both came in as No. 3 seeds from the respective conferences and each are trying to avoid a third defeat to upstart. Montreal was feeling so good after taking Game 1, but its defense has been shredded for 11 goals the last two contests and the Canadiens goal light looks like a flashing blue light from K-Mart. All three clubs have their sights set on evening their series tonight.
Buffalo at Boston 7:00E VERSUS
Sabres coach Lindy Ruff has a simple message for his team. - “We win that game (Game 4), we’re back in our own building with momentum,”
Buffalo needs to turn up the offensive pressure on Boston to get this series back 2-2. Top scorer Thomas Vanek missed the last contest with undisclosed injury and no word has come down if he’s available tonight. Either way the Sabres are not beating the Bruins defensive men in their own end and have to start feeding the middle more. Buffalo is 10-30 this year when they score two or less goals.
Even when Buffalo has put on a few surges on goalie Tuukka Rask, he has stoned them. “We are making mistakes and we have Tuukka making huge saves for us.” said Mark Recchi “We have been in these close games for a long stretch now, and have been playing playoff hockey for over a month.” Since March 27, Rask has permitted 14 goals in 10 games during regulation. Boston has won 11 in a row on home ice against teams from their own division.
DiamondSportsbook.com has the Sabres as +120 money line underdog and they are 12-3 after scoring one goal or less and 12-4 UNDER revenging a road loss versus opponent this season.
Washington at Montreal 7:00E TSN
The old adage of “win, survive, advance” sure sounds good to Montreal right now as it feels like Washington is assaulting them with a barrage of weapons. In best Dennis Leary voice, “Here’s the crazy part”.
The Canadiens have given up 11 goals in last 6+ periods, but haven’t allowed one goal in 14 opportunities against the Capitals down a man in penalty kills. If they had, how much worse would the blood-letting be!
Though the task is monumental, Montreal has to attempt to control neutral ice better and maintain possession of the puck like they did in the opener. Washington has far too many guys that can bury the rubber into the netting. The Canadiens had chances in the first period to claim a lead; they just failed to do so. Montreal is 11-26 at home after a blowout loss by four goals or more; however they are 4-0 revenging a home defeat vs. opponent of three goals or more.
Montreal is +170 ML underdog and faces Caps club that is 8-0 after three straight games with eight or more shots edge on goal.
Vancouver at Los Angeles 10:00E VERSUS
The Canucks would do well to tighten their overall play and stay out of the penalty box, since they are getting killed when down a man. Los Angeles has score 10 times in this series, seven via the power play.
Vancouver has to find a way to contain Jack Johnson and Dew Doughty of the Kings as these young guys have been running the power play from the top expertly. “They’re great on our blue line,” said L.A.’s Michal Handzus who scored two power-play goals set up by the defensemen. “They’re very strong and really creative, (but) they know how to keep it simple, too.”Los Angeles will look to create a 3-1 lead in the series at the Staples Center and they are 22-6 after game where eight or more total goals were scored.
Vancouver is professing not to panic. “We’re confident in ourselves, even after a couple of losses,” said Henrik Sedin, who has three assists. “We realize we just have to execute, because we’ve done it before. The penalty killing has to improve, and the power play has to be more active and more effective. Once we get that done, we’ll be all right.” The Canucks are 16-4 after a loss by two or more goals.
Vancouver is a -120 ML choice with total Ov5 and is 8-3 after their opponent scored five or more goals and 15-5 OVER after allowing three goals or more in consecutive games this season.
Orlando and Dallas each won their opening first round game and look to build a solid 2-0 lead in their series before taking to the road for a pair. Both teams have been a solid investment of late; however both are matched against division foes that know them well. Can they continue to win or do two coaching legends come up with ways to not only cover the spread, but derail plans of sweeping the initial home encounters.
Coach we’re paying attention, really
The Magic rather easily built a 22-point in the third quarter against Charlotte, before the Bobcats got with the program and started to play closer to their abilities.
Charlotte was too excited to start Game 1 – “We were a little nervous starting off the game, and they knew it,” forward Gerald Wallace said.
But with some well-timed coaxing from coach Larry Brown, Charlotte battled back to 85-80 by being the aggressor and getting Dwight Howard off his game with extremely physical play. Howard admitted to receiving little sleep the night before, anxious to start the playoffs and he played liked someone tired and irritable with not enough time on the pillow. Howard had as many fouls as points (5), playing less than 28 minutes. “Superman” was less than super with only seven boards and took silly fouls.
“Their big guys are going to hit him every chance they get. And if he gets one foul retaliating, they’ve done their job,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said. “He can’t get any of those. He’s just going to have to understand no matter how many times they hit him, he can’t hit back. We need him on the floor.”
Orlando came up just short of covering the 9.5-point spread with 98-89 victory and is 21-11 ATS off a home win this season.
The Bobcats are expected to be much more relaxed this time with Wallace and Stephen Jackson as the scoring leaders. Charlotte is 18-9 ATS versus good three point shooting teams (36 percent or higher) and must do a better job containing Jameer Nelson, who was 4-8 from beyond the arc and scored 24 of his 32 points in the second half. Nelson missed the first three rounds of the playoffs a year ago and wants to show his skills this spring.
The Magic are 18-5 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins and are 20-3 and 15-7-1 ATS since the beginning of March. DiamondSportsbook.com has them as 8.5-point pick with total of 186 and they are 17-7 UNDER off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite.
If Orlando loses focus again, Charlotte will try to sneak right in and Jordanaires are 22-9 ATS after covering two of last three against the spread and are 16-5 OVER playing only their second game in a week.
In Dirk we trust
It’s often been said in NBA circles that if Dirk Nowitzki is your best player, the chances of NBA title are remote. In his career, Nowitzki has had his postseason up and downs, however has been a much steadier performer in recent years. His Game 1 effort against oft-seen rival San Antonio, deep in the heart of Texas, was close to perfection.
Nowitzki scored 36 points on 12-14 shooting, wore out the nets sinking all 12 free throw attempts and grabbed seven boards while committing a single turnover. “Sometimes,” Nowitzki said, “you have one of those nights where the basket is big.”
The Mavericks have now defeated the Spurs six straight times on their home floor (5-1 ATS) and were the bigger and more aggressive team on Sunday. Erick Dampier and Brendan Haywood out-muscled and out-hustled San Antonio, contributing to 45-37 edge on the glass.
Richard Jefferson was brought to San Antonio to make them younger on the wings and add speed and quickness. For most of the season he’s looked lost in black uniform and he was non-factor again with four points on four shots. The Spurs are piteous 9-23 ATS revenging a road loss the last two seasons.
Coach Gregg Popovich’s defensive strategy might have to be altered if Nowitzki starts Game 2 where he left off. San Antonio played the German forward straight up with approximately five different defenders, eschewing the double team, trying to cover the other Mavs.
Tony Parker lacked his usual zip to the rim and the Spurs ball-handling was atrocious with 17 turnovers, 11 in the opening 12 minutes.
Dallas is a 3.5-point home favorite and coach Rick Carlisle leaned heavy on his starters, with only three subs seeing significant time. The Mavericks have built six-game winning streak (5-0-1 ATS) and despite a yearlong of bad angles, they are 18-7 ATS playing with two days rest since last season.
San Antonio lacked their usual crispness and is 1-8 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists a game. The Spurs are 23-9 OVER in revenge-mode off a road loss. Both NBA playoff battles are on TNT, with the first game at 7:05 Eastern.
Went down with 1-2 day with the Giants losing in extra innings. The Best System is on the diamond at 36-7 and Free Play is also in baseball, seeking an elusive winner. The Top Trend is on the frozen pond and involves a total. Good Luck
What I thought yesterday- Though I didn’t trust the situation, I was impressed with Utah last night winning at Denver. Guts and determination.
My math MLB underdogs are 12-6 the last four days (why am I not playing these more?) and today I have Texas, Washington, Pittsburgh, Philly, St. Louis and San Diego.
Free Baseball System -1) Play Against AL road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 like Cleveland, with a low on-base percentage (.320 or less) against a team with a good bullpen WHIP of 1.350 or less, with a crummy bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season. This system is winner, winner chicken dinner at 36-7, 83.7 percent the last five years.
Free Hockey Trend -2) The Phoenix Coyotes are 16-3 UNDER after a win by two goals or more this season.
Free Baseball Pick -3) I told Steve of the LCC we need a winner in this slot and he tells me Colorado Rockies will be the one.
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While the biggest story surrounding game two between Miami and Boston centers around the Kevin Garnett suspension, Heat players know the real issue involves shooting 39.8 percent, scoring 76 points and committing 22 turnovers. They do that again they jump into 0-2 hole they helped dig. At least Miami hasn’t lost at home, something Phoenix can’t say. The Suns players should have listened to local talk radio, as their fans assumed they would be mature and take the game to the short-handed Portland. Instead, they waltzed around and let the Trailblazers steal opening game. Two NBA teams, two NBA situations, the Heat and Suns must address.
Miami at Boston 8:00E TNT
The Heat knew what to expect against Boston, they had already lost to them three times this season, yet once again they failed to find the answer. Dwayne Wade can win a game or possibly even two with the right set of circumstances; however he can’t go at it alone to win a series.
Boston strategy is to do the best they can with Wade defensively, but more importantly, don’t let anyone else become a factor. Other than the former Marquette product, no other Miami player has scored 20 points this season against the Celtics and in series opener, Quentin Richardson was the only other player to reach double digits (15 points).
Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said, "We just did not show a lot of composure. ... To play to that kind of pressure, a little bit of duress, a little bit of adversity, we did not respond well to it." His club is 6-19 ATS is road encounters revenging four or more losses to same opponent. Boston will miss KG, but coach Doc Rivers will do what he does best, rally the troops for key moments.
“Kevin also facilitates a lot of offense. In the first game, a lot of our open shots came off Kevin being involved in the play. That’s my biggest concern. You’re losing 15 points and, more importantly, you’re losing all the picks, all the postups where they had to trap. That’s big. We’re going to have to try to find some points somewhere.” Rivers also talked about Garnett’s defensive energy and will present this as challenge to Glen Davis, Rasheed Wallace and others to pitch in.
Bookmaker.com saw Boston go off as 4.5-point in the first matchup and took revenge and no Garnett into consideration and dropped the Celtics to two-point choice, with the wagering public taking it a step further. The Celtics are now listed as single point home favorites, with steady total of 179.
Boston has won six straight over Miami at home (3-3 ATS) yet is merely 13-26-2 ATS as a home favorite and 21-12 UNDER after they’ve covered the spread this season. The Heat is going to have to force the tempo and make shots. They are 8-0 OVER off a road loss scoring less than 80 points, winning by 7.8 points per game.
Portland at Phoenix 10:00E NBA-TV
The clues were there and the intelligent sports bettor spotted them and played Portland in Game 1. Phoenix was an eight-point favorite with total of 204, suggesting the Suns should have won first round opening tilt 106-98. The score relating to the Trailblazers exactly matched their season total home and away. Phoenix however averages 110.1 points a game and over 112 at home. The numbers didn’t add up and Portland got the upset.
Every typical flaw the Suns have was exposed by outstanding game plan by coach Nate McMillian.
Defensively they pressured Steve Nash early in the shot clock, making him yo-yo the dribble and eat up time. Phoenix prefers to get right into offense and most times they didn’t get anything started until 15 or less seconds. They doubled Amare Stoudemire wherever possible and he needed 19 shots to accumulate 18 points.
On offense, Portland ran when given the opportunity and Andre Miller kept driving to the rim and Phoenix had no answer. This allowed Marcus Camby and LaMarcus Aldridge to score in deep. A 14-2 and 11-4-1 ATS close to the season meant nothing after four quarters of playoff basketball for coach Alvin Gentry’s squad.
Nash was candid about how his team played, even if it seemed unusual. “We didn’t quite have the spirit or the energy collectively that we had in the last few games of the regular season,” Nash said. “Sometimes that happens.”
When asked about the importance of this being playoff time he responded, “You can never predict. I mean, I thought we played hard. I just thought we didn’t quite have that spark that we needed,” he said. “I don’t know— biorhythms.”
Phoenix’ compelling season could be all but over with another loss and they are 8-1 ATS at home after a defeat by six points or less this season. The Suns are 8.5-point faves with total of 204.5 and they are 41-24 OVER revenging a same season failure the last three seasons.
Portland has the second best road record in the NBA at 25-17 (26-14-2 ATS) and is 18-6 ATS off a road win this season. It will be imperative for the Blazers to again contain the tempo as assuredly the Suns will want to play at more aggressive pace and they are 21-8 UNDER as visitors when the total is greater than or equal to 200.
One of the most feared predators on the planet is the shark. They come in all sizes and shapes in the water, from the 50-foot whale shark, to the fiercest meat-eating monster, the Great White. Not every shark is consider a danger to man, like the pygmy ribbontail catshark, which is 6 to 7 1/2 inches in length or the oft times docile San Jose Sharks, who are almost timid when April and May come around.
If this team were based in New Orleans, an exorcism would be preformed to break the curse, because no team could be as continually brilliant year after year in the regular season and fold like a cardboard box in the postseason. Maybe the these Sharks need one of the teams from CSI or the gang from Criminal Minds to determine a profile as what the - H E double hockey sticks - is wrong with this team.
In Game 1 against outclassed Colorado club, the Avs Chris Stewart fires centering pass into toward the goal and San Jose’s Rod Blake’s skate redirects the puck past helpless goalie Evgeni Nabokov with 50 seconds in the game to give the Avalanche unexpected 2-1 road win. Game 2 the Sharks out-shoot Colorado 52-22, but need goal with 32 seconds to tie and eventually win in OT.
Game 3 was tense scoreless struggle thru regulation, although all the pressure was on Avs netminder Craig Anderson, with San Jose putting on relentless pressure with incomprehensible 42-7 edge in shots on goal the last two periods. Just as fans were getting back in their seats for OT, San Jose’s Dan Boyle’s errant pass managed to beat his own goalie and Colorado led in series 2-1.
“We didn’t beat their goalie,” Sharks coach Todd McLellan said. “We found a way to beat ours.” Exasperation can’t describe the emotions San Jose players and fans have to be feeling, as they have seen this remake of Bill Murray’s “Groundhog Day” before and they are 4-10 in road games after losing their previous game in overtime.
Colorado is playing like they are walking around with four-leaf clovers under their sweaters and are 10-1 on home ice after winning in extra session. San Jose is a -160 money line favorite with total of 5.5 at Bookmaker.com and has to feel they are firing the puck into 1x1 black hole area, with Anderson stoning everything. The Sharks are a very lonely 3-9 in last dozen road games.
Another team that needs a hug is second seeded New Jersey, who must hate orange and black. If hockey periods were like boxing scoring, the Devils would probably be ahead 5-2-2 on points thru three games, yet trail 2-1 to Philadelphia after Daniel Carcillo’s overtime goal in Game 3. New Jersey is now 2-7 against Philly this season and just don’t seem to matchup up well against them and the Flyers have great confidence facing the Devils.
That feeling of confidence has extended to goalie Brian Boucher, who is playing only because of injuries to top two Philadelphia netminders and is seeking the most improbable of journey’s, trying to lead the Flyers to East Finals, like he did a decade ago.
Philadelphia is 8-3 on their pond over New Jersey the last three seasons and is currently a +100 underdog, with the Devils 2-8 as road favorites.
Unless New Jersey can break the spell the Flyers have over them, they might be headed back home down 3-1 in the series.
A good quality 2-1 Sunday brings us to today and a notch NHL system arises at 82 percent. The Top Trend was a winner against yesterday and peeks in on NL West this evening. The Free Pick hasn’t been so hot of late, but Ron gives it go in the NBA. Good Luck
What I thought yesterday- How interesting it was to watch the last two innings Ubaldo Jimenez no-hitter and watch him throw out of the stretch. Good for him for swallowing his ego and doing what was right for him and the team and just “drop and drive” his way to history books.
I did think it was sort of stupid however the Rockies TV announcers didn’t say he was pitching a no-hitter, like they were being superstitious like the players about it. Kind of a reach, just report the action.
Free Hockey System -1) Play On a favorite against the money line like Boston with a goalie having 91.5 percent or higher in the second half of the season, whose team has five straight games with 30 or more shots on goal. This winning system has lit the lamp with 41-9 record, 82 percent.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Matt Cain and the Giants are 11-2 after a loss over the last two seasons.
Free Basketball Pick -3) Ron of the LCC is 7-2 in last nine NBA selections and sees Denver continuing to roll against Utah.
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Cleveland and Denver opened impressively on their own home courts in winning and covering Game 1 of the new playoff year. Each club will look to take a decided edge on Monday night, before packing for the road for the next two contests. Will each be the able to stir up another winner and beat the oddsmaker to boot? This doubleheader is on TNT starting at 8 Eastern Monday.
Play like a champion
The Cavaliers closed as 12-point point home favorites against Chicago and almost frittered away a 22-point lead before closing the deal. The Bulls got within seven points in the fourth quarter, before being visibility spent and falling 99-83.
Cleveland appeared bored after building humongous lead, yet is quite confident in their abilities, this year more than ever.
“We," LeBron James said, "have the look of a champion."
He might be right and the oddsmakers certainly think so making them the betting choice for futures wager to be NBA champions. The Cavs remade roster is back at full strength with Shaquille O'Neal, Antawn Jamison and Anthony Parker. Cleveland looked bigger, stronger and had more options coming off the bench than Chicago and is 14-3 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season.
The Bulls can take heart they outscored the Cavaliers by a point after the first 12 minutes and realistically had no reason to believe they could sweep Cleveland at Quicken Loans Arena. “We can't wait to play," Derrick Rose said after scoring 28 points and handing out 10 assists. "I know I can't. This is something I live for. I think about it every minute of the day, playing against the best team in the NBA."
The loss ended Chicago’s brief three game winning streak, however they are 13-5 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season.
DiamondSportsbook.com took into consideration the Bulls will have turnaround revenge and opened them as Game 2 underdogs of 10.5-points, with total of 191 and they are 7-1 ATS off a loss since Mar. 12. Chicago is 18-8 UNDER revenging same season loss this year.
Cleveland knows how to turn up the defensive intensity and is 13-5 ATS after two or more Under’s this season and continues to rule the first round with 13-3 ATS mark. The Cavs are 10-2 SU and ATS at home vs. Da Bulls in this battle of Great Lakes cities and is 9-1 UNDER after a cover as a double digit favorite this season.
Carmelo chewy good for the Nuggets
Denver has been floundering for some time, but once the playoff lights came on it was show time for their two brightest stars. Carmelo Anthony scored a playoff-high 42 points in leading the Nuggets to 126-113 victory. Guard J.R. Smith is like a Maserati, able to go from zero to 100 MPH in seconds.
Smith broke open a 90-90 tie game with four 3-point baskets, scoring 18 of his 20 points in the final stanza. "It felt good to get on, period," Smith said. "I couldn't hit anything. I didn't have a rhythm. It felt good to start making shots."
Denver scored 38 points in the last quarter and Anthony and Smith combined for 30 of them. That raised the Nuggets record in 14-3 ATS in playoff games since last season.
Utah has to feel the basketball gods are conspiring against them. Jazz forward Andrei Kirilenko re-injured his strained left calf in practice Thursday and won't play in the series, which is catastrophic, since he was the one player on Utah roster that could at least contain Anthony.
Jazz center Mehmet Okur aggravated his left Achilles' tendon injury in the first half, slipping on a wet spot on the floor and undergoes MRI. "I felt something pop," said Okur. (Now out for the season) Utah is 3-12 ATS as visitor revenging a road loss the last two years.
Offense ruled in the series opener, with Denver shooting 57.1 percent and Utah at 54.7 percent, however too many players had wide open looks, which was both a function of exceptional ball movement and shoddy defense.
Utah is a seven-point underdog, with its roster shrinking and will have to continue to shoot the ball well and play defense with greater urgency. At the very least the Jazz are capable of covering the number and are 13-1 ATS after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points.
Denver has shown a killer-instinct when leading in a series and is 8-0 ATS in the postseason in this precise situation. The Nuggets are now is 22-8 UNDER in the first round of the playoffs and are 44-7 SU when they have 20 or more assists this campaign.
The schedule might appear lighter in baseball action with just eight games on the board; however that doesn’t mean opportunity doesn’t exist. We went thru and isolated four specific MLB systems that are thought provoking and should have a well above average chance of being profitable to start another week of baseball betting. Sides and totals from DiamondSportsbook.com.
St. Louis at Arizona 9:40E
The Cardinals are already in first place in the NL Central, where they are expected to end up at the end of the season. You can’t blame St. Louis if they a trifle fatigued off 20-inning game Saturday and a tense come from behind effort 5-3 win over the New York Mets last evening.
St. Louis has left 32 men on base the last two contests (22 in the marathon) and are a -129 money line favorite in the desert against angry Arizona club that was swept by San Diego and has lost four in a row.
Here we look to Play Against road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 after two straight games where they stranded 10 or more runners on base, in the first half of the season. These teams are unsightly 12-33, 27.7 percent.
San Francisco at San Diego 10:05E
Even after losing series to the Dodgers, San Francisco maintained lead in the NL West with 8-4 record. The Giants continue their road trip further south down the California coast to San Diego.
The oddsmaker looked at the Matt Cain vs Clayton Richard matchup and studied two good bullpens and hung out an Un7 on this confrontation. With this setup, we found a 52-19 system that suggests to Play Over on road teams when the total is 7 to 8.5, after a loss, on a club with a winning percentage of 62% or better on the season.
Detroit at L.A. Angels 10:05E
Last week was not a good for Detroit, dropping two series and losing four of six games. Like many teams this time of year, the Tigers are attempting to put together a consistent bullpen and though the ERA of 3.21 appears more than adequate, too many runners are scoring in hold situations and they have surrendered 64 hits and walks (44-H, 20-W) in 42 innings, for WHIP of 1.524.
In the last three seasons, road clubs with bullpen WHIP between 1.450 to 1.550 on the year, who are a good fielding team, turning 1.1 or more double plays per game are 33-74.
Baltimore at Seattle 10:10E
There had to be a general sense of relief in Baltimore dugout as they ended their nine-game losing streak in being victorious for the just the second time this season yesterday in 8-3 triumph over Oakland.
Even with the offensive outburst, the Orioles are batting puny .234 as a team, with on-base percentage of .292, while scoring 3.2 runs per game.
Seattle’s return to the state of Washington has boosted their play, with two series victories. The pitching has been the difference and the bullpen has sharp with 3.29 ERA on the year (1.17 ERA at Safeco Park). The Mariners are a -148 money line favorite with total Ov8. Keep in mind, American League teams hitting less than .260, facing a bullpen with ERA under 3.33, on Monday’s, are 39-14 UNDER the last 13 years.
Closed the day 1-1 officially, though the Best System was a winner. Moving forward, the Dodgers are in 32-7 system, is it good or bad for L.A.? Why break up a good thing, have used the Yankees as Top Trend the last two days, why ruin it when the numbers show 88.4 percent. Kendall has a reappearance and has MLB play that has gone from dog to favorite. Good Luck
What I thought today- There is no comparison to the first round of the NHL vs. the NBA; basketball isn’t even close by comparison. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t get better, but for entertainment, the guys in the sweaters are much better to watch, IF you understand hockey.
Have you ever sensed anyone being happy about a particular topic when they say “It is what it is”?
Tim Lincecum is just sick. In case you haven’t heard and I think I heard this right, 21 K’s and two walks this season in 20 innings and only one leadoff batter has gotten base against him. Oh yea, he had three hits yesterday.
Not going to give out 4-1 on underdogs in MLB every day, but today’s math pups are Tampa Bay, Seattle, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Giants. The Nats would have been but they got flipped.
Free Baseball System -1) Play On home teams like the Dodgers with a team batting average of .280 or better on the season (NL), after a loss by four runs or more. Since 2006, this system is 32-7, 82.1 percent.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Why switch after two winners, the Yankees are 23-3 in home games when playing on Sunday over the last three seasons.
Free Baseball Pick -3) Kendall is 8-1 the last two days and got the Washington Nats when they were still an underdog to sweep Milwaukee.
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In today’s Stanley Cup contests, four series commence in new locations, all tied up at 1-1, the most appealing of the group is Phoenix paying a visit to Motown, who will have two tries to regain home ice advantage. The first is nationally televised tilt on NBC.
You work all year for the playoffs and home ice, and in 60 minutes it can disappear as Chicago found out. Thus far all four higher seeds that lost initial game have come back to even series, can the Blackhawks do the same?
Phoenix at Detroit 3:00E NBC
The Coyotes knew they couldn’t match the speed and skill of the Red Wings in end to end hockey which is the very reason they lost 7-4 in Game 2. Phoenix has to button down the defense and play like they did in the series opener or they will trail for the first time in the series.
“We know when we play our game we’re capable of beating anybody, but we didn’t play our game,” captain Shane Doan said. “I’m sure it was fun to watch, but it wasn’t our type of game.” Phoenix is 15-6 off a home loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons.
The high-scoring affair didn’t bother Detroit, who has won 50 consecutive games when scoring four or more goals in the postseason. “It sure helps winning the game last night instead of coming back being down 2-0,” Detroit captain Nicklas Lidstrom said Saturday. “We’re happy with the split.”
The Red Wings were mediocre 25-11 by their standards at Joe Louis Arena this season, however won eight of last nine in their own rink and are 45-10 in home games after scoring four goals or more in their previous game since 2007-08 campaign.
DiamondSportsbook.com has Detroit as -200 money line favorites, with total Ov5. The Wings are 24-4 after a blowout win by three goals or more and 9-0 UNDER at home after two exact road encounters. Phoenix has one victory is last six tries at “The Joe” and is 8-2 UNDER in road conflicts after both teams scored four goals or more.
Nashville at Chicago 8:30E TSN
The first contest was a battle of playoff newbies in net. Both played well for two periods, with Chicago leading 1-0. J.P. Dumont of Nashville flipped the puck towards the Blackhawks net and goalie Antti Niemi let the rubber play him and the game was tied.
That fluky goal gave the Predators the confidence to believe and Chicago was stunned and caved in. “I think that lucky bounce gave us momentum and gave us that hope, and I think we kind of got going after that,” Predators defenseman Shea Weber said. “That kind of woke us up.”
In less than 20 minutes the Hawks has lost home ice advantage and is faced with uncertainly and must win situation.
“I saw it coming to the net. I don’t know how it bounced or why,” Neimi said. “It had nothing to do with the ice. … It was just a terrible goal. We were handling things that far really good in the game.”
That was Nashville’s first postseason road win in 11 tries and they are 7-2 against good defensive teams conceding 27 or fewer shots on goal and allowing less than 15 percent on the power play.
“They get you when you are trying to make plays in the middle, they all come back really hard and when you try to go east-west, they end up taking it the other way,” Chicago’s Andrew Ladd said Saturday, describing the Predators’ defense.
Ladd and his teammates are -260 money line favorites with total Ov5 and are 16-4 after consecutive home games and 12-5 UNDER after allowing two goals or more in the third period last game this season.
Nashville goes for decisive lead in the series and has four wins in previous 11 visits to the Windy City and is 19-11 OVER having won two of three.
One of the most feared predators on the planet is the shark. They come in all sizes and shapes in the water, from the 50-foot whale shark, to the fiercest meat-eating monster, the Great White. Not every shark is consider a danger to man, like the pygmy ribbontail catshark, which is 6 to 7 1/2 inches in length or the oft times docile San Jose Sharks, who are almost timid when April and May come around.
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