Super Saturday at 3DW

Another winning day has us on 13-4 run here at 3Daily Winners. I personally have been hot, hitting seven straight here and at season-high for units won on the season on my own personal plays. You can get all my plays for Free by signing up on mailing list. Today’s top trend is perfect and goes up against hot Houston pitching staff. No outstanding systems for Saturday, however did find one that is 7-1 in 2009. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: Can things get any worse for the New York Mets? Manager Jerry Manuel's team managed only two hits in its 11-0 loss in Atlanta on Friday night. It's only the third time in Mets history that they were shut out by more than 10 runs, while producing two-or-fewer hits. The other instances were both against the Pirates at Shea Stadium - in 1966 and 1984. Thanks Elias

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY OVER on all teams against the total who are a weak AL offensive team like Kansas City, averaging 4.2 runs or less a game, against a team with a solid bullpen (ERA of 3.75 or less), with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start. This non-qualifying system is 51-18, 73.9 percent since 2005, but 7-1 this season.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Dodgers of Mannywood are 9-0 after two or more consecutive losses this season winning by an average of 4.6 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) This is getting scary good (love the looks of wagering accounts) and I have Texas to maul Minnesota.

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NFL quarterback controversy’s

Competition is healthy right? When someone has to compete, they tend to extend more effort and become better at what they do. But what happens when say two mediocre people go head to head? Does it really benefit a company or organization having to pick the best of an average pairing? And what about the sports bettor, he’s left to analyze the merits of mediocrity.

In the NFL, this happens a lot. The most telling position is under center with the quarterback. In studying the list of 32 NFL teams, it is good business to find the quarterback situations that are up for grabs and give strong consideration to playing Under on futures wagers for team totals.

Why you ask, it allows the old professional football proverb – If you have more than one quarterback, you have none.

The Oakland Raiders drafted JaMarcus Russell No.1 two years ago and to call his progress S L O W would be doing injustice to the word itself. Talent-wise the former LSU quarterback can make all the throws, however work habits, dedication, decision-making and staying in shape were all questions marks when he was drafted and remain today. The Oakland camp is so unsure if he is the right person for the job, they’ve brought in 39-year old Jeff Garcia.

Reports have the Raiders organization thinking Russell can learn from Garcia’s work ethic and understand what it takes to play in this league. One problem, Garcia is a curmudgeon, he has no interest in developing Russell, he wants to be the starting quarterback. If Garcia believes he has earned the job in camp (which he always does) and if coach Tom Cable (with Al Davis calling every 10 seconds) decides Russell is his guy to start the season, Garcia’s past suggests a malcontent who isn’t afraid to speak his mind. This sets up combustible situation for a franchise who makes the Kardashian’s seem normal. Sportsbook.com has Da Raaaiders at 5.5 for season wins, but if Russell fails or Garcia starts seeing the ghosts of linemen chasing him like last season, they will fall short of that total in 2009.

New Tampa Bay head coach Raheem Morris was a big fan Josh Freeman at Kansas State and picked him in first round as long term quarterback solution. While most experts considered Freeman a project, he quickly moved up in the eyes of those in the Buccaneers organization with sharp workouts in mini-camps and OTA’s. Freeman was helped significantly competing with Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich.

Morris can’t be milquetoast in making a decision. His options are more limited than he believes and nobody thinks Freeman is as prepared as Matt Ryan for quarterback duty to start the season. The smart thing to do is start McCown and let Freeman learn and make change at midseason if necessary, with veteran Leftwich in the bullpen. Oddsmakers have pegged the Bucs for 6.5 wins after two nine win campaigns, which makes good sense.

Sweeping changes were made in Cleveland, nevertheless, sports talk radio and Browns blogs are still in debate who should be starting quarterback, Derrick Anderson or Brady Quinn. New head man Eric Mangini’s first true decision as coach will be picking one of the two. No matter who he chooses, a large bucketful of support will be for the player that lost, especially if the winner fails to live up to expectations.

The real issue here is ability. Quinn is local guy, but does not possess strong arm and accuracy isn’t his strong point. He can pick up first downs with his legs and likes to throw to tight end in tough spots. His true value is incomplete due to lack of playing and injury. Anderson is neither as good as he played in 2007 nor as awful as he looked last season. He’s like a hot fudge sundae, hot and cold, and definitely turnover-prone. Mangini needs to take a stand with one and live with it, especially in first season as coach and worry about the future later. Bettors have to do the same with Browns listed at 6.5 wins for 2009.

Of course the craziest quarterback controversy isn’t even one and might not ever be one, yet has the juiciest story. Brett Favre will be a Minnesota Viking if his arm is sound and Sage Rosenfels will wonder how he was blindsided. Even more so than Garcia, Favre isn’t putting on a purple and white uniform to wear a headset. He signs; he expects to start, even if he plays the “I just want a chance to compete” card. Except for 2007, Favre has seen a noticeable deterioration in his skill to throw the medium-deep pass (unless it’s a slant) or long pass over the last four years.

Rosenfels sagged as starter for Houston last season, being too much a risk-taker when not needed. Tarvais Jackson has had his chances and fumbled his opportunities to take the Vikings-mantle by the horns and will have to move on to have real shot at starting again. Though Minnesota fans are mildly excited about Favre coming after seeing him beat their team all these years, be careful for what you wish with a quarterback who turns 40 in October. Minnesota total of nine wins could go south if No. 4 fails to impress.

Several other teams don’t have specific issues at the field general position; however they do not have answers necessarily.

Is Trent Edwards really what Buffalo needs at quarterback? He played the role of Indian-giver in 2008. He made the coaches very comfortable in the first half of the season making him the starter and gave it all back with a repulsive second half. Terrell Owens can help, if Edwards can hit the target. Are the Bills capable of beating 7.5 wins set by oddsmakers, after a trio of seven win seasons?

Also in the AFC East, the Jets have to decide on Kellen Clemens, who has never really impressed or draft pick Mark Sanchez to beat a spot of seven wins.

Tennessee has total of nine W’s set on them. Can Kerry Collins continue to be a winner and if not, is Vince Young ready to resume career and become whom the Titans originally believed they had.

Matt Hasselbeck is the starter in Seattle and he’s become increasingly more injury-prone with advancing age. Will new coach Jim Mora have quick hook if Hasselbeck flounders and go with more athletic Seneca Wallace as Seahawks look to reclaim NFC West?

Shaun Hill has 7-3 record as San Francisco starter the last two years, which he earned in part because he had a better feel for Mike Martz offense. That offense has been scrapped with his departure. Hill is tough, with strong pocket presence and a good decision-maker. Word out of the Bay Area is he has teammates respect, but the 2005 top selection Alex Smith is hell-bent on proving he’s not a bust. Smith took a huge pay cut to stay with Niners (obviously nobody called) and believes his mended wing and more traditional offense is better suited to have him be leader of 49ers and pass seven win total placed on them.

With this much acrimony floating around this many different NFL teams, it is hard to make a case any of the teams are worthy of an Over play before the season starts.

Trying to Bury the Book on a Friday

The winning just keeps on coming with another 2-1 day, making us 11-3 in this most recent positive streak. I’ve hit a very good personal patch and offer my Free Play seeking seven straight winner. Found a rare perfect Totals Trend, where they played the All-Star game. Top System is out West, following the best team in baseball and is 38-6. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: Jamie Moyer is 8-0 with a 1.37 earned run average in eight career starts in what is now known as Land Shark Stadium. Moyer is the fifth pitcher since earned runs became an official statistic (1912 in the N.L., 1913 in the A.L.) to win each of his first eight starts with an earned-run average that low in a particular stadium. The four others are: Lefty Tyler at Weeghman Park (8-0, 1.18 ERA in his first eight starts), Lon Warneke at Shibe Park (8-0. 1.24), Jack Sanford at Connie Mack Stadium (8-0, 1.22) and Jim Bunning at Shea Stadium (8-0, 0.38). Thanks Elias

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Free Baseball System-1) Play Against all underdogs like Houston, with a money line of +150 or more, a NL team with a low on-base percentage of .350 or less, against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP of 1.350 or less), with a hot starting pitcher whose ERA less than 2.00 over his last three starts. This hotter than a day in Death Valley system is 38-6, 86.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Arizona D-backs are 13-0 UNDER in road games after seven or more consecutive home games over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Too borrow from Harry Carry, Holy Cow, six straight winners by yours truly and we’ll go to the South Side where Harry used to work and play the White Sox.

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MLB Series Wagering- Tampa Bay at Kansas City

The Tampa Bay Rays start the second half of the season believing they can play much better baseball then they did most of the first half of the year. The Rays (48-41, -0.7 units) trail the New York Yankees by four losses in the wild card chase and Boston by seven for the AL East division lead. In some ways, Tampa Bay feels fortunate they are still within reach of the postseason after floundering at or below .500 for the first two months of the season. "We didn't play nearly our best baseball," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "We did at times, but a little bit too streaky."

One area that needs immediate shoring up is Tampa’s play on the road. They Rays are 18-26 (-7.8) and the skipper thinks his team is capable of turning this around. “We just have to get out there in the second half. We have to take advantage and not make the same kinds of mistakes that put us in a bind in the first half. We're capable of that. We're capable of playing a higher level of baseball on a more consistent basis." Maddon said.

Kansas City (37-51, -13.9 units) starts the second half having lost five of six and in search of winning formula from last September that fueled this season’s optimism. The Royals first order of business is finding ways to score more runs. Kansas City ranks 28th in runs scored at 3.9 per game and hopes Alex Gordon can provide offensive punch coming off of hip surgery.

After bouncing back and forth, Royals manager Trey Hillman has decided on Brian Bannister (6-7, 3.66) as his opening game starter. Bannister is off arguably the best game of his career, throwing seven shutout innings at Boston before tiring slightly in allowing one run on three hits in over 7 2/3 in 3-1 triumph. Coming into the series, Kansas City had won only three of last dozen contests at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals are 4-1 in Bannister’s home starts against winning teams, but 7-20 in night games over the last two seasons when he’s been called upon (Royals Record). The Royals are +130 money line home underdog at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total Un8.5. The Royals are 18-6 UNDER in the second half of the season.

Tampa Bay will counter with James Shields (6-6, 3.42), who is 2-4 on the road, with the Rays winners only twice in his eight starts as visitor. The Rays are off a pair of losses, but have enjoyed great success on Friday’s with 29-11 mark. Shields’ has liked the look of Royals uniform and is 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA in five career starts against Kansas City. He’s averaged nearly a strikeout per inning against K.C. (32) in the 36 innings he’s worked, while allowing just three free passes. The Rays are 14-3 UNDER July in road games since last year.

Game 1 Edge: Tampa Bay

Because of the shifting of Royals rotation, ace Zack Greinke (10-5, 2.12 ERA) only pitched one inning in the All-Star game, will start Game 2. Greinke hasn’t been quite as effective as he was early in the season, when he was un-hittable and has lost his last two starts, though the 3-1 loss the last time out was in part due to shabby K.C. defense. Historically, the Royals and Greinke don’t do as well if he pitches the middle game of series, showing a dismal 12-30 record.

Only staunch baseball bettors might know this, Tampa Bay’s offense ranks third in baseball at 5.3 runs per game. Besides pounding out 9.3 hits per game on average, the former Devil Rays have newfound patience as the dish, walking 4.1 times per game, which is third best in baseball, just behind the Yankees and Red Sox. The former masthead of the Rays staff, Scott Kazmir (4-5, 7.11) will take the ball for middle encounter. Since being injured, the lefthander has not been effective, but at least pain-free. Having last won on May 9, Kazmir hopes pitching in a Game 2 situation will turn luck around since he and his teammates are 22-5 in that spot.

Game 2 Edge: Kansas City

The series finale will be afternoon affair. The Rays are 16-13 playing in the light of day, with Kansas City unsightly 12-19. Matt Garza (6-7, 3.73) is one of the American League’s biggest enigmas. Only a handful of hurlers have his stuff, yet he finds a way to have one bad inning and has losing record. He’s 0-4 with 4.02 ERA against K.C. The Royals will send Luke Hochevar (5-3, 5.34) to toe the slap. Since returning in early June for stint in minors, Hochevar has pitched up to his capabilities, with 5-1 record and 3.97 ERA. Besides the quality record, he’s been innings-eater with six of last seven starts lasting as least six innings.

Game 3 Edge: Kansas City

Thought this was a good week to change it up and go with a few teams that don’t receive much of the acclaim. The matchup is very close, but Tampa Bay has poor road record and two of its starters in this series are fumbling along, not pitching well. Similar to a thin slice of pastrami, I’ll support the Royals by the slimmest of margins.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Tampa Bay -125, Kansas City -105

3DW Pick: Kansas City

Can the Chicago Cubs turn season around?

Many a heart has been broken by Chicago Cubs franchise over the years. The list of failures would make even the Big Three automakers blush. Everyone knows about last year’s playoff bust and a century of nonfulfillment and every Cub supporter has their version of the 1984 playoff series against San Diego or the unforgettable collapse of 1969.

Losing and the Chicago Cubs fit together like two people meeting on EHarmony.com. The Cubs haven’t been complete failures of late putting together back-to-back winning seasons twice since 2003, which were the first since 1971-72. Juxtaposed those figures against there biggest rival, the St. Louis Cardinals, who have suffered consecutive losing seasons twice in the last 49 years.
Since being one of the best teams in baseball from 1929 to 1945 (they lost in the World Series five times in the span), Chicago fans have suffered mightily, once going 16 years without a winning season (1947-1962) playing at a .425 clip.

Last year’s puzzling ending to the Los Angeles led to “wait till next year” for the North Siders and oddsmakers believed the Cubbies were indeed ready to make another run at winning a World Series for the 101st time since last being champions in 1908.

If 2009 was to be “the year”, thus far for the Cubs it’s been like those trying to stop Johnny Depp as John Dillinger in “Public Enemies”. The vaunted Chicago offense has looked like Rex Grossman leading the Bears the last few seasons, averaging 4.1 runs per game, 14th in the National League.

The list of underachievers is remarkable, Kosuke Fukudome batting .251, Milton Bradley .243, Alfonso Soriano .233 and Geovany Soto .230. The Cubs front office decided they would clear cash to sign Bradley and move Mark DeRosa, this season the combined average of the second basemen is .224 with on-base percentage of .280. True, having Bradley hurt was a setback as was Aramis Ramirez being out of the lineup for an extended period.

The fact is manager Lou Pinella’s use of the full roster can’t work if players don’t produce. The Cubs are next to last in doubles, 11th in walks and 13th in on-base percentage. If not for Derrick Lee’s hot spell the last month, no telling how much lower they would be.

The Cubs pitching is better, but not when it counts. They allow 4.1 runs per game, which is third in the National League. There starting pitching has been somewhat erratic beyond Ted Lilly (9-6, 3.18 ERA) and Carlos Zambrano (5-4, 3.53), as the Cubs are 22-12 when those two start. Rich Harden’s mechanical problems have him getting hit hard and Ryan Dempster is a lost cause on the road with Cubs sporting 1-9 record in his 10 starts.

The bullpen’s .500 record is in sync with the team record and the save percentage is lowly .625 for a team presumed to be running away with division. Kevin Gregg has stabilized as the closer after abject start, but Carlos Marmol is a half a pack of Marlboro’s with 43 walks in 43 innings of work.

Even being baseball’s biggest underachievers based on preseason prognostications, the Cubs are only one game behind division leading St. Louis in the loss column, though backers are paying for it at -8 units. For Chicago to live up to expectations, they are going to have to average about five runs the rest of the way and hope the pitching holds up.

Blogger hearsay has rumblings in the clubhouse with not everyone pulling on the same rope. Reports have stubborn players unwilling to change to help the team, pitchers becoming testy with the lack of offense and too many lapses of concentration on the field.

Can the Cubs take control of wide open division, undoubtedly if the talent plays to potential. However, after this many games, the Cubs seem wholly capable of finishing just ahead of Pittsburgh in the Central, which means, wait till next year.

Ready to Rock on a Thursday

To get everything back up to speed, we start the second half of baseball season on 8-2 run and since April 11, our official plays are 145-94-3, 60.6 percent or pretty damn good. Let’s hope we can keep the momentum going, leading up to the football season. Our top system involves the Rockies and is listed as regular article for today. The Top Trend involves one of the Los Angeles teams and is 85 percent correct the last two years. I’ve hit five straight at this location and will try and nail down another one. Good Luck.

Positive news: 3Daily Winners is #2 in MLB at Free Sports monitor and at The Sports Eye monitor.

What I thought about: Watching the opening ceremonies of the All-Star game, I couldn’t help think of how much class and dignity is involved and the sharp contrast to that of the NBA All-Star game. Baseball relishes its history, while the NBA is all about the present moment. Let me know if you agree or disagree.

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Free Baseball System-1) See article below about Colorado.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Randy Wolf and the Dodgers are 17-3 in night home games over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) I’ll try and hog more attention with a sixth straight winner here by playing the Rockies.

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Baseball Betting in the Second Half

With the All-Star game behind us and three well-deserved days away from wagering on Major League Baseball, it’s time to get back in the saddle and continue the delightful daily grind. If you have had the good fortune of making a solid profit like this reporter betting baseball, it is time to consider a few adjustments for the remainder of the regular season. What could change in three days with no games played, a lot!

Playing Favorites is more costly

Remember when the New England Patriots were in the midst of unbeaten regular season and were 9-0 and 8-1 ATS? The very next week oddsmakers had enough of squares and sharps kicking their behinds and made the Pats 16-point road favorites at Buffalo. Their thinking was you want to play them, go ahead, beat this number and it continued the rest of the season. Though, not to that extreme because of pitching matchups, the same thing occurs in baseball the rest of the season. Boston, the Yankees and the Dodgers will see ever increasing prices if they continue to win, making them poor risk-reward choices. The same will be true on the opposite end of the spectrum, with baneful teams like Washington and San Diego, helping inflate numbers of their opponents.

My advise on money line wagering is stick to certain limit (I use -175, normally about -155 otherwise) on favorites, since virtually anything above that number means you have to win two games for every loss.

Find bad teams playing well

It’s impossible to determine at the moment, however a few sub .500 teams are going to play unexpectedly well for long stretches and can be real bankroll builders. The absolute best recent example is the 2005 Houston Astros. At the end of July, Houston was 47-56 and going nowhere. Phil Garner was brought in as interim manager and nothing happen at first, then the Astros sky-rocketed, winning 42 of last 59 games and made the playoffs as wild card team before losing in the World Series to the Chicago White Sox. Keep antennae on high alert for this opportunity.

Ride Streaks Good and Bad

Just like in surfing, it’s not easy to catch the right wave. Too often, we as sports bettors are leery of streaks. We pay attention when a team wins or loses five in a row and often lack the confidence to “ride the tide” figuring the game we choose will be the loser. I’m not advocating “chase systems”, rather finding teams that have won possibly three in a row, are scoring runs like people flocking to a Harry Potter movie opening weekend and the right pitcher is starting. Play that team and who knows, they could have streak of seven or eight wins and you profited each time. One other piece of advise, think about playing that team one more time after a loss, since like many streaks, its not always consecutive wins, but winning nine of 11 or 12 of 15, those add up quickly also. Do the 2007 Colorado Rockies jog the memory, winning 11 in a row and 13 of 14 starting in mid-September? The exact method works for Play Against teams on losing binges.
Bullpens still matter

As innings start to mount on starting pitchers, the significance of the bullpen increases. Teams that have their house in order can see ERA of bullpen drop a half a run or more from here on out. This collection of relievers can provide a number of winning bets, saving small leads or games that are tied in the middle innings. Watch these numbers carefully.

Follow home/road records

By now, most teams have set up a pattern of playing tangible baseball home or away. The Red Sox, Dodgers, Tigers and Giants are all strong home wagers, while the Phillies, Rockies and both Los Angeles teams are the most profitable bets as visitors. Knowing this enhances chances to cash winning tickets more frequently.

September can be scary

For most sports bettors, once football starts, baseball is either finished or put on the back-burner. This is not a bad strategy for a number of reasons. Start with what teams care about winning and those waiting for the season to end. Contending teams offer little value unless they are playing each other, which is more a crap shoot late in the season. Expanded rosters, means more research to check who is or isn’t playing and being unfamiliar with called-up pitchers adds to the quandary.

Don’t blindly bet just to do so, since a bankroll that took five months to build can disappear quickly in 30 days. Be extremely judicious and only play games you feel are next to “locks”. Otherwise, set aside a few days to do baseball exclusively. An extremely successful bettor friend of mine bets baseball just on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in September, giving him what he feels is ample time to prepare for football weekends.

Rockies in Great Betting Spot

The Colorado Rockies return to action with a four-game road excursion to San Diego to start the second half of the season. Colorado is solidly entrenched in third place in the NL West and is two games behind San Francisco for the wild card spot. The Rockies have just completed a 10-game homestand that was mildly disappointing with series records of 1-1-1 for a total of 6-4 record.

Long known for home/road dichotomy, Colorado (47-41, +6.6 units) has made tremendous strides this season with 24-22 mark as visitors and they are the third best bet in baseball in the traveling uniforms at +8.3 units.

In their opening game against San Diego, they will send their ace Aaron Cook (8-3, 3.98 ERA, 1.390 WHIP) to the mound. After a sluggish start to the season, Cook has been cookin’ with 5-0 record in last seven starts, only conceding more than two earned runs twice in that time.
The sinkerball specialist has always enjoyed facing Padres hitters, as they continually beat the ball into the ground against him. This has led to Cook posing 12-4 record versus San Diego, with sparking 2.71 ERA. With the Rockies having defeated Atlanta last Sunday to end the homestand, Cook and Colorado are 10-3 in road games after a win over the last two seasons.

San Diego (36-52, -12.1 units) has hit the skids and about the only thing that is going to change their luck is cloning Adrian Gonzalez. The Padres are dead last in the Major Leagues in scoring, averaging meager 3.8 runs per game. Gonzalez is the only effective run producer on a team that has lost 21 of last 29 games and is 11-26 in July the last two years.

The Friars will start Chad Gaudin (4-7, 5.03, 1.409), who is a pitching rollercoaster. Throughout most of the season he’s alternated good and bad performances and is off one of the better ones, allowing one run in 6 2/3 against Arizona, which resulted in no-decision for him.

Bookmaker.com has Colorado as -135 money line favorites with total Ov7, which fits very comfortably into a system supporting the Rocks.

Play On road favorites with a money line of -125 or more after seven or more consecutive home games, in July games.

There is no mystical reason why this superb system works; it just does with 51-12, 81 percent record since 1997. These matchups tend to one-sided as well, with teams like Colorado winning on the road by 2.7 runs per game. With San Diego really finding it challenging to scratch in the win column and 9-25 having lost two of their last three games this season, consider this exceptional situation.

British Open Betting Preview

The oldest and most prestigious major golf championship to those golfers around the world commences Thursday, with Tiger Woods commanding the lion’s share of attention, but not all of it. Though Mr. Woods is a decided favorite, several other top golfers are being considered for this weekend’s action, as potential champions in the third major tournament of the year.

Woods has three wins and eight top 10 finishes since returning to stroke play events in 2009, coming off knee surgery. It has been evident Tiger has not always trusted his full arsenal of shots this year, however with each tournament played; his confidence in different aspects of his game has grown.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Woods as +180 money line pick and links golf plays into his greatest strength, his mind. No professional golfer has a better imagination to develop shots and with his ability to execute; this is the reason why he is always the top choice to be champion. Don’t look to see the driver much from Woods, looking to keep the ball out of the deep rough.

Maybe it’s because Tiger hasn’t nailed down a major in 2009, but several different golfers are being given a chance to win the British Open.

One difference is just the fact it is a links course, making it more difficult to predict a winner by the ever-changing conditions one could see at Turnberry. Those who arrived early to play practice rounds have seen the weather fairly normal (sun, rain, sun and more rain), however the wind has blown from three different directions in three days.

Retief Goosen, Ian Poulter and Sergio Garcia are listed as +2000 choices to walk away with the Claret Jug. Goosen is always mentioned in any major, since his game is steady and he’s always at or near the top of the leaderboard. Poulter has been a little more erratic this season, with four Top 10 finishes, yet he’s finished below 50th in two of his last four starts. What can you say about Sergio? He’s only had one Top 10 finish in the States this season, as his balky putter continues to haunt him. One aspect in his favor, the greens at Turnberry are relatively flat, which should help, as he strives to finally win the “big one”.

The next group at +2500 is a cauldron of players and styles, which is as perplexing and wonderful as you will find. Padraig Harrington tried to improve his swing after winning the British Open and PGA Championship last year. To say it hasn’t worked as planned is similar is to saying former baseball star Lenny Dykstra has a few financial difficulties. Harrington recently won the Irish Open and even he wasn’t sure what this has done for his confidence, as he has two Top 20 (no Top 10’s) finishes in 13 other starts, with seven missed cuts.

Hunter Mahan is being given a chance to be solid contender, based on his last three tournaments in which he’s finished in order T6th, T4th and 2nd. The 6th place finish was at the U.S. Open and he fired a closing round 62 at the AT&T National, having the clubhouse lead until Tiger passed him with birdie late in his last event.

Rory Mcllroy gathers a great deal of attention as a young golf prodigy at 20 years old. Mcllroy has immense talent and if he can play well for first three days, he’s shown the pedigree of being able to knock down a good number on Sunday’s.

Lee Westwood has been playing consistent golf for over a year and is off two Top 10 finishes, making him a contender.

Martin Kaymer of Germany falls into the darkhorse category at +3000. Kaymer has quietly moved up to 11th in World Rankings with consecutive wins in the French Open and Barclays Scottish Open this past week. Kaymer’s short game is Top 10 material and he’s shown grace under pressure when leading.

Though 18 years older, Steve Stricker has a lot in common with Kaymer, besides the same odds to win the British Open. Sticker has four Top 3 finishes in 2009, including winning two of his last four starts. His win at the John Deere continues his career resurgence and he can roll the ball with the best of them with flat stick when confidence is at top level.

Geoff Ogilvy, Henrik Stenson, Jim Furyk and Paul Casey all deserve mention; nonetheless it all starts with El Tigre.

Tiger has won three previous British Opens, but as Mark Reason writes in the Sunday Independent, Woods’ wins have come on dry and more burned-out links courses. Turnberry has thick, lush rough and similar courses like Birkdale, Lytham, Troon, St George's and Carnoustie, have all kept him out of the winners circle.

Turnberry is in a remote part of Scotland and was used as an air-base for World War II. Now it will face the assault of the world’s best golfers, hosting the Open Championship for only the fourth time.

Looking back at Preseason MLB Futures Wagers

Back in March, one of my assignments was to go cover the strengths and weakness of each Major League Baseball team and make a prediction on how each club would likely measure up against the season totals set by the oddsmakers. With the baseball season roughly 54 percent completed, thought I would look back and see how I preformed four months ago and how I might end up when the final results are officially in.

National League (My pick and future record based on current form)

Philadelphia (Un88 – projected 90 wins)

The Phillies finally started to play well at Citizens Bank Park and are up to 22-23 record, having won nine of last 10. If the bullpen continues to improve and National League’s best offense keeps firing, playing in mediocre division, Philly should comfortably surpass 88 wins.

Florida (Ov75 – projected 83 wins)

Though the Marlins are -12 in runs scored/runs allowed, their starting pitching is expected to continue to improve, making me look I made the right choice.

Atlanta (84.5 No Call – projected 79 wins)

All the numbers prove this is .500 club and nothing really shows Atlanta should be any different the rest of the way. Might have overestimated the Braves slightly.

N.Y. York Mets (Ov89 – projected 78 wins)

Injuries to several starters have made the Mets a pedestrian offensive club. Beyond Johan Santana, unreliable starters pitch in rotation and bullpen allows too many keys hits. New York seldom rises to the occasion, as 16-25 record acknowledges as an underdog. Missed badly.

Washington (Un72.5 – projected 48 wins)

Firing the manager doesn’t change the players. The Nationals have too many young starting pitchers, deplorable bullpen and not enough every day players that care, all leading to another Washington failure. About as easy as it gets on this call.

St. Louis (Ov83.5 – projected 87 wins)

Called for the Cardinals to compete for division crown and they have been the best team in the NL Central thus far. They are on schedule to go Over the number and if Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan and Ryan Ludwick find batting stroke, St. Louis should win 90 games.

Milwaukee (Ov81.5 – projected 83 wins)

I thought the Brewers were barely above .500 club and they have proven me correct thus far. Milwaukee lacks enough starting pitchers that could send the team on seven or eight game winning streak or play well over extended period, taking 15 of 20 contests for example. For the most part, the Crew wins when favored (28-19) and lose when expected (17-24 as underdogs).

Chicago Cubs (Ov92.5 – projected 81 wins)

As correct as I was about Washington, like everyone, missed the Cubs by a magnificent Michigan Mile. Offense has been horrendous, ranking 14th in the National League in run production at 4.1 per game. Inconsistent starting pitching and injuries, means the Chicago would have to go 50-26 the rest of the way to surpass total. In the words of Al Borland, “I don’t think so Tim.”

Houston (O73.5 – projected 81 wins)

Despite having more retreads in starting staff than a used car lot, the Astros have overachieved thus far. Nonetheless, staring at -30 in RS/RA means this isn’t put to bed yet.

Cincinnati (78.5 No call– projected 78 wins)

Cincinnati has played as presumed and if anything could go Under in the second half. Only two NL teams have worse RS/RA allowed figures.

Pittsburgh (Ov69 – projected 70 wins)

Thought the Pirates might climb to 71 or 72 wins and gave them waffling approval months ago. Unless they remain snake-bit in one run games (5-14), could have a winner here.

L.A. Dodgers (Ov85 – projected 103 wins)

The Dodgers figured to be better than last season, but on pace to win over 100 games, nobody saw that coming. The ability to dominate division foes (30-12) makes this easy winner.

San Francisco (Un79.5 – projected 90 wins)

The Giants pitching was to be their calling card in 2009 and has it ever. The wild card leader at the moment, San Francisco is first in fewest runs allowed (3.7) and strikeouts (7.9 PG) and second in hits allowed (7.9 PG) and batting average (.239). Still weary of offense holding up in late August and September, yet have to say I blew this one.

Colorado (Ov76.5 – projected 86 wins)

The Rockies are making me look smart, in their now typical fashion, closing 28-9 before the All-Star break. One aspect nobody counted on was Jason Marquis leading the senior circuit with 11 wins at this point.

Arizona (86 No call – projected 69 wins)

Though I had no real thoughts on the Diamondbacks, misjudged how badly this team can play. This club lacks focus and true determination. Playing better the rest of the way would not be a shocker, however the only way they get 86 wins is taking whole squad to Arizona Fall Instructional League and pick up wins there.

San Diego (Un71 – projected 66 wins)

Never wavered in my belief that San Diego is the least talented team in baseball, even after 9-3 start. The Padres are proving to be what they are, awful.

American League (My pick and future record based on current form)

Boston (Un94.5 – projected 99 wins)

The Red Sox are putting together another superb season, with first-class offense, good starting pitching and a deep and varied bullpen with lots of answers. Thought this would be really solid team, but not at this pace.

N.Y. Yankees (Ov94.5 – projected 93 wins)

New York bumbled early and have bounced back to play superior baseball, if you disregard another lost trip in Anaheim. Expect this total to come down to last few days of the season.

Tampa Bay (Un88.5 – projected 87 wins)

Really believed the Rays would to come back to earth after unforeseen 2008 campaign. Tampa Bay is in wild card contention at the minimum, how they finish on the road (18-26 presently) will go a long way in determining final results. They will not have the benefit of playing the NL East any longer, whom they were 12-3 against.

Toronto (Un72 – projected 79 wins)

Though this prediction appears to be a loser, if Roy Halladay is traded soon, have to think this still could be good, with 35 of the Blue Jays remaining 62 games against Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.

Baltimore (Un78.5 – projected 73 wins)

The Orioles do have some positives, with young talent starting to emerge in spots. Nevertheless, too challenging a division has the Birds falling short.

Detroit (Ov81.5 – projected 89 wins)

Detroit made too many wise decisions in the off-season not to be better than last year. With improved defense, a potent batting order and better than presumed bullpen, this is the team to beat in AL Central.

Chic. White Sox (Ov77.5 – projected 83 wins)

The peripheral numbers suggest nothing more than a .500 team and have to agree. This is still accurate enough to project a correct prognostication for the White Sox.

Minnesota (Ov83.5 – projected 82 wins)

You never count Minnesota out until they are dead. Manager Ron Gardenhire is one of the best and the Twins +29 in runs RS/RA suggests they could well compete with Detroit (+32) down the stretch and go Over the total.

Kansas City (Un76.5 – projected 68 wins)

The Royals higher expectations have met resistance, as sorry offense that is 29th in runs scored, wastes too many good outings by starting pitchers, who feel compelled to be almost perfect to win.

Cleveland (Ov85.5 – projected 64 wins)

Having seen Cleveland a few times in spring training, I really believed the Indians had enough offense to overcome below average staff. Could not have been more wrong than Washington (past and present), believing stimulus packages are solution to fixing economy.

L.A. Angels (Ov88.5 – projected 92 wins)

Even with the preseason injuries, who would have thought journeyman Matt Palmer would have more wins as starting pitcher (7), than John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar (5) combined and the Angels would be on pace to win 92 games at break. Juan Rivera, Bobby Abreu, Chone Figgins and Torii Hunter have kept Los Angeles busy on the base paths with top hitting team and second in runs scored.

Texas (Ov74 – projected 89 wins)

The Rangers can still hit, averaging 4.9 runs per game, but it has been the pitching that has turned Texas into division and wild card contender. After years of having pathetic pitching, the Rangers are middle of the pack in runs surrendered at 4.6 per game, thanks to off-season regiment and organizational influence. Spotted preseason banter and jumped on board.

Seattle (Un73 – projected 85 wins)

Is it possible the Mariners are really fifth in runs given up? I can not see this holding up, especially with 25th ranked offense. Seattle is 21-13 in one run games, which has kept the Mariners afloat.

Oakland (Un82.5 – projected 70 wins)

“Moneyball” is about as relevant as the Stone Temple Pilots these days, with the Athletics having more “For Sale” signs than a neighborhood full of foreclosures.

Total Betting Withdrawal Today

This is never a fun day. The whole Home Run Derby is a mild distraction Monday night, watching long prestigious shots that look like they could hit the Mississippi River on the one bounce in St. Louis, but that is not what I’m talking about. This is about no real sports to bet on. There two days every year, where no major sports are available to wager on, the day before and after the baseball All-Star game.

Today is the worst of the two days by far in my opinion, because most of the time there is a WNBA game, horse racing or something to at least think about betting on, but for this Monday, well it stinks. (Couldn’t use the word I wanted)

I mean really, think about it, especially when it comes to basketball followed by baseball. You study, analyze and go over a myriad of possibilities for months daily and suddenly; you’re Will Smith in “I am Legend”, nothing to do. Damn it’s not fair.

So what does a sports bettor do, this is what I’m thinking about. I bought a fresh batch of college and pro football annuals, so this year instead of working 80+ hours a week getting to know all the ins and outs of all the teams at the end of August, I won’t procrastinate and get a head start.

(Is this Tim Tebow’s sixth year of eligibility?) In fact, I just received in the mail my 2009 StatFox Edge (cheesy plug) and I’ll start combing thru what college starters are coming back, along with the all important quarterback position and the number of linemen and backups reporting. Actually this is really a good idea, because the last time I was truly prepared for almost anything was my sister’s wedding and that was because my parents were all over me.

Don’t misunderstand, I’m ready to go when the bell sounds, it’s the whole preparation deal is not my strongest suit. I’ve checked around and New England, the Giants and Philadelphia look like Super Bowl potential teams at Bookmaker.com, along with the defending champion Steelers. Pittsburgh has plenty to admire, nevertheless, I seldom wager on NFL futures on last year’s champions.

Gee, I wonder if Brett Favre is going to sign with Minnesota, they even have a picture on the internet of the place he bought. Or possibly, Favre’s going into real estate investment after staying up late one night and watching one of the guru’s talk about buying homes “with almost nothing down”.

“Hi I’m Brett Favre and I’ve made millions playing football and turned into prima donna, however, I think I retired for the last time and now am buying real estate properties across the country, trying to improve my image and doing my part to stimulate the economy, all while wearing my Wrangler jeans.”

I thought of something else I could do, review all my notes I made on baseball before the season. That might be a pretty good way to see if what I believed is still true or am I living under false pretense. I think the last time I did this Vida Blue was pitching in the All-Star game as a rookie. I’m having an average baseball season by my standards; maybe a refresher is a good idea.
I have golf wagering down cold and would study the British Open this week anyways, but now I have to fit it in somewhere the next couple of days.

This is invigorating thinking about being productive with this time off. I can catch up, look ahead and act like people that really work for a living.

Come Wednesday morning, I’ll be waiting at this computer for Thursday’s eight baseball games to have official odds, because that is what gambling degens like me do, live for the action.

Written by Red Wydley.

Wagering on the Home Run Derby

Over the weekend an unofficial poll was taken and 52+ percent of the people given the choice between watching the All-Star game or the Home Run Derby preferred to watch the latter. While that fits nicely into Major League baseball wanting to promote the entire event, the folks at FOX Sports can’t be crazy about the outcome.

The Home Run Derby is meaningless fun and eight contestants have been chosen, here is a breakdown of what to look for, with odds courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

Albert Pujols (+200)

Baseball’s best player will have a few inherent advantages, with one being in his own home park and being able to stay emotionally charged with fan support. Pujols is a legitimate Triple Crown threat, leading the National League in home runs (32), runs batted in (87) and fourth in batting average (.332). Pujols should hit over 50 home runs for the first time in his career and will try to not alter his swing too much to win this contest, not wanting to mess with it after coming out of mild slump. The Redbird first baseman is odds-on favorite to win after making semis two seasons ago and runner-up in 2003.

Ryan Howard (+250)

The 2006 champion is tied for fifth in the National League with 22 dingers and will have fan support at Busch Stadium, being a Missouri native. Howard’s bat has been a trifle slower in 2009, but his uppercut swing against beach ball tosses is tailor-made for this event. His biggest worry is being too jacked-up and expending a great deal of energy early.

Adrian Gonzalez (+500)

Gonzalez is the first Padre to being in this event since 1992, when Fred McGriff and Gary Sheffield were participants and the game was in San Diego. Gonzalez is tied for second in the senior circuit with 24 home runs and his 67 walks in 88 games is sure to double, being San Diego’s only true threat in the lineup. The easy-going first baseman could make a name for himself in winning The Derby, since it will be the only time you will hear or see him based on the Friars play this season.

Prince Fielder (+500)

After failing to hit 40 home runs last season, Fielder is back on pace in 2009 and has to be darkhorse for this competition. He has the power to compete and like Howard has natural uppercut swing. His downfall could be the heat and humidity of St. Louis and using up a lot of energy early and not having much in the tank if he would make the final round.

Brandon Inge (+1200)

This is turning out to be quite a season of change of Inge. After being the Detroit catcher in the middle of 2008 campaign, Inge was moved back to his more normal third base position to improve Tigers defense. Though not a noted power hitter, Inge has 21 long balls this season, playing for division leader and was voted on by the fans to make the All-Star game. He probably more than anyone knows his hard work has paid off in good fortune and will be excited about gaining notoriety. Definite long shot.

Joe Mauer (+800)

Mauer’s inclusion in the Home Run Derby is somewhat mystery based on volume; however this could be a precursor of things to come. Mauer leads the Major Leagues in hitting with .373 batting average. He has a career high 15 homers at the break, despite playing in only 64 games due to missing the first few weeks of the season. At 26, he starting to show the track of top notch player whose power numbers go up with age. He’ll be trying to two in a row for Minnesota players, as he is the other half of the M&M boys, with Justin Morneau last year’s champion.

Nelson Cruz (+600)

The most exciting player in last’s year Home Run Derby was Josh Hamilton of Texas, who was too tired to finish the deal after putting on a memorable show early on. Nelson Cruz has 22 shots that have cleared fences this season and Cruz has stated he expects to be in the thick of the action, though doesn’t see himself hitting 28 in the first round like Hamilton his last season.

Carlos Pena (+600)

The American League’s leading home run hitter is truly honored to make the team as replacement for Dustin Pedroia, who instead went to be with pregnant wife. Pena has found a home in Tampa Bay and the slugging first baseman has 24 home runs and is another darkhorse, if he can keep emotions in check.

Winner –Albert Pujols
Runner up - Carlos Pena

Last Day of Baseball Betting for now

It wasn’t perfection, thanks to the Nats rapping out 21 hits, but 2-1 will do. Today we have an 89.4 percent system in the Keystone State. Though I was personally 1-2, had a winner here and look to make in five straight. Top Trend is perfect 10-0. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: The victory over the Yankees on Saturday marked the fourth time in nine games on its current homestand that Mike Scioscia's Angels team has won a game in which it had trailed by four-or-more runs. Think that's no big deal? It's only the fifth time since 1900 that a major league team has done so, and the first time since the St. Louis Browns earned four such wins during a 20-game homestand back in June 1940! This is also the first time in the team's 49-year history that the Angels have won four such games in the same month - single homestand or no. (Thanks, Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Pittsburgh with a money line of +150 or more, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more earned runs, against opponent with a hot bullpen who’s WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games. The last three years this is wondrous system at 34-3.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Tampa Bay Rays are 10-0 in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 over the last two seasons. The average wining margin has been 3.4 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) I’ve hit four in a row; let’s make it five with the battling Birds of Baltimore with starting pitcher Brad Bergesen. (Say that fast five times)

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