Early Football Line Moves

For the Early Line Moves, we seek out the earliest lines and compare them on late Tuesday nights numbers to see what the so-called Line Movers do. Last week in college football these plays were dandy 6-1 on the sides and 1-1 in college totals. This makes season record 42-27-2, 60.8 percent on sides and 29-18, 61.7 percent on Totals in CFB. In the NFL, they were 1-1 on sides bringing the record to 11-9, 55 percent. On the Totals they were excellent 4-1 (9-2-1 L3 weeks) making the updated figure 15-10-1, 60 percent. As you notice, every one of these is making money this season. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.

College Sides
Bowling Green -9.5 to -7
Virginia +1.5 to -2.5
Stanford -27 to -30
Miss. State Pick to -2.5
Georgia Tech +1.5 to -2
Oregon State -9 to -14

College Totals
Buff/Ohio 51 to 48 Lost
Hou/Marsh 63 to 60.5 Winner
Duke/WF 37.5 to 40
Aub/Miss 40 to 42
Tulsa/Ark 74 to 77
Colo/Tex A&M 56 to 53
Oreg/Cal 67 to 62
UAB/USM 57 to 61

NFL Sides
N.Y. Giants -7 to -9

NFL Totals
AZ/STL 50.5 to 48
GB/Tenn 42.5 to 40.5
Miami/Den 47.5 to 49

West Texas Shootout in Lubbock

For knowledgeable college football fans, this matchup is only unexpected to the degree that both have failed to lose in 2008. Every preseason magazine had these two Big 12 teams either second or third in the South Division. Texas Tech coach Mike Leach has his most complete team during nine seasons, being able to not only pass, but run with effectiveness and a decent defense. Texas has taken the college football world by storm, with coach Mack Brown assembling a team hungry to get better weekly and unafraid of a daunting four week schedule as challenging as any team would find in college football.

From a situational standpoint, not much more Texas Tech could ask for. The Red Raiders are undefeated at 8-0 (3-2-1 ATS) after Kansas conflict, coming home to take on hated rival and #1 Texas. Passing guru Leach catches the Longhorns on the final stop of what seemed a nearly impossible four-game stretch, with this the only true road game. In a league stuffed with potent offenses, this could be the one that could case Texas the most difficulties. Quarterback Graham Harrell makes quick decisions and unleashes the ball with more velocity than typical Lubbock chucker. Having Michael Crabtree and other talented wideouts doesn’t hurt, all being able to take the pigskin long distances on the various crossing routes. The biggest change has been on the other side of the ball, where the defense can actually stop opponents, however is vulnerable to the pass ranking 98th position nationally. Texas Tech is 8-4 ATS as home underdog, but just .500 under Leach.

The legend of Colt McCoy continues to grow, with one superb performance after another. "We need to continue for him to be who he is," said Texas coach Mack Brown. "I don't know if we need him to be any better." His uncanny accuracy and decision-making is setting him apart from the pack and the newcomers that are emerging off coach Brown’s bench only add to the weaponry. The Texas defense will not be haled among the elite ranked at 44th nationally in total defense; nonetheless they make plays when they count the most in such as offensive-minded league like the Big 12. Think back how they shutdown Oklahoma in the second half and stopped high-powered Missouri until they had built a 35-0 lead.

Bookmaker.com has Texas as 3.5-point favorites, with a total of 74.5. In looking at the Total both teams have a commonality. The Horns are 21-5 OVER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62 percent or better and the Red Raiders are 13-3 OVER vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58 percent or higher.

If anyone is looking for a defensive struggle, better find a MMA match, as this Big 12 confrontation will be about as they say in the South, Aw-fense. The Red Raiders have given up just three sacks, which Texas defense is capable of in a half. Harrell is going to have to be on target and steady. Texas Tech will have to run enough to balance the offense, and they are 15-5 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses allowing 90 or less rushing yards a game.

The Longhorns have already faced a slew of outstanding quarterbacks and won’t be overwhelmed. Their biggest advantage is they have had the best field general in each contest in McCoy and Texas Tech will have to stop him. The Texas running game has been gaining confidence and churning out more yardage with regularity. Texas has covered four of their last five road games against teams with winning records.

Texas leaves the comforts of Austin and is 4-8-1 ATS on the Big 12 road. This Texas tussle originated 80 years ago and the home team is 7-3 ATS the last decade. The favorite is 6-9 ATS in the last 15; however November is when the Horns do their best work with 19-9-2 ATS record.

Saturday Wagering Options and a slice of humble pie

3Daily Winners hoped you took advantage of Thursday’s System in the NHL which was a Winner, we told you it would be. Overall a solid 2-1 day and we look forward to Saturday college football where we have one of the best college football systems we have had all season at 25-2 against the spread. The Top Trend of the Day takes us to South Bend and taking a peek at one of my favorite coaches (not) Dave (he’s got a knee) Wannstedt. Good Luck.

I was unhappy to miss an opportunity Thursday on Cincinnati. The normal sites I check still had QB Tony Pike as doubtful for game against South Florida. 3Daily Winners gave out Cincinnati as a Free Pick at FreeSportsMonitor.com, yet was hesitant to make it an official play. I saw Pike played pretty well and Cincy won. Hate lost opportunities.

I have to give out a public apology to Paul Buck. For those that bought his play in our Waging Options page on New Orleans, no harm, no foul. At Free Sports Monitor, those buyers also got the right pick, but I messed up and hit Phoenix, when New Orleans was the play. No customers werehurt, just our record at that monitor. Sorry Paul, my bad.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points off a road win, when playing on a Saturday. This incredible system is 25-2 ATS, a whopping 92.5 percent and points to backing Colorado State.

Free Football Trend -2) Pittsburgh is 2-17 ATS off a home loss by 14 or more points the last 16 years.

Free Football Selection -3) Mark from the Left Coast Connection is on 10-2 run in college football and has Texas A&M as his best play today.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

As the Cold Winds of November blow, Know your Football Numbers

The month of November for much of the country sees thick dark low clouds become a more regular occurrence; a foreshadowing what lies ahead in the coming months. In the South and West, the days are often still sunny, but the thermometer takes a much slower climb to reach the daytime highs as the cooler nights linger much longer. Betting college football is also in transition in November. All the conference races head down the final stretch to figure out the winners. Bowl slots are determined by how teams finish in the standings, some pleased, and others not so much. The rhetoric about what teams deserve to play in the national championship game and fill the BCS bowls hits a fever pitch and upsets happen in the most unlikely places, like Pittsburgh upsetting West Virginia, spoiling their chance at the title last year.

November is not for the faint of heart, since just because a team needs to win, doesn’t mean they do. Inevitably the cream rises to the top. The very best teams hit their stride, reaching the next plateau in accomplishments. These teams are identifiable by the physical nature of which they play. The stronger teams become stronger and beat teams that are wearing down having been wearing the pads since August. Typically these squads have a solid running game and pass the ball with greater efficiency. The defense has the ability to make the opponent one-dimensional and expose their weaknesses.

The pretenders are exposed, having gotten by with an easier schedule to this point or maybe a pass defense has not been fully exploited and now faces teams that have studied the tape on them and have the ability to take advantage of their shortcomings. Another scenario that happens every November is injuries mount and no matter how well you have played and survived to this point, the reserves are just not as good and these teams lose.

For the 11th month on the calendar, trends can be very useful source since they paint a picture about the recent history of a team. That’s not to say you should trust these trends unequivocally, rather a good starting point to help formulate good a quality wager.

Certain teams have a home/ road dichotomy, playing well at home and not on the road. Two teams that fit this profile perfectly are highly ranked Oklahoma State and fellow Big 12 partner Texas A&M. The Cowboys are having a remarkable campaign under coach Mike Gundy with one of the most powerful offenses in the country. The defense continues to improve and they are set to have a great finish, especially when playing at home where Oklahoma State is 11-3-2 against the spread at Boone Pickens Stadium. What bettors have to watch out for is Okie State on the road, being 5-11-1 ATS as November visitors.

Mike Sherman was brought in to Texas A&M to turnaround the football program and the changes he has made have been sweeping, probably to the detriment of this year’s club. The offense has at least started scoring points, but the defense is slower than my uncle reaching to grab the check for dinner. With this conundrum, the Aggies are sure to add to 4-13 ATS record on the road. However, with the offense improving and with the help of the famous 12th man at College Station, backing A&M at home with 10-3-2 spread record isn’t all bad.

It always helps to accentuate the positive and large group of universities have stellar November records. You will find teams that do well at home, others on the road or they just know how to finish the regular season. A couple of MAC teams are not up to previous standards, nevertheless are worth a look this month based on the past. Miami-Ohio is 28-12 and 24-14-2 ATS since Tom Hanks won second straight Oscar for Forrest Gump. (1995). Toledo has also been a strong closer with 14-6 mark and 13-6-1 ATS record.

One team on nobody’s radar is UL-Monroe, maybe it’s time to play attention with 6-1 and 7-0 ATS record the last two years. Michigan State is another good club this month, playing the power game and they are 18-10-2 ATS in November. Let’s not forget the best team in the country, as Texas is 19-9-2 ATS to finish the regular season.

Missouri has delivered for college football bettors with 18-9 ATS road record since 1999 and Miami-Fl. have the same winning percentage with 14-7 spread mark. Mississippi State seldom attains notoriety, but delivers well on the road with 17-10-1 ATS record this month.

Though this season has been bumpy, East Carolina flourishes at home with recent 6-1 number against the linemakers. Fresno State is 7-3 ATS in raisin country and Virginia Tech before its always wildly enthusiastic fans is 17-7-1 in November contests in Blacksburg.

It can be difficult to comprehend why seemingly top notch programs don’t deliver better wagering results late in the year, especially at home. The most reliable theory is teams are comfortable playing before the home fans, lacking that edginess necessary to put away conference rivals. With the stakes usually high, the opposing teams are also fighting for conference honors or seeking to pull that last upset which could make their season. If these battles are close in the fourth quarter, the coach of the more skilled home team becomes more conservative and looks more to survive to play another day, than risk peddle to the mettle.

Unbeaten Alabama has been such a team with unsightly 4-16-2 ATS figure at home in November and fellow SEC member LSU, is right with the Crimson Tide as a home play against team with 5-16 ATS record. Despite Boston College’s continued growth and playing in the colder Northeast, they have failed to cover seven of the last nine tilts on Chestnut Hill late in the year.

Earlier, teams being exposed for playing poor defense were mentioned and UTEP fits the bill, with 5-13 record, covering the number a measly three times.

There is no shortage of road teams who fail miserably in November, take a gander.

Army 6-15 ATS
Baylor 4-13-1 ATS
Bowling Green 10-17 ATS
Kansas 4-20 ATS
Marshall 4-12 ATS
Nebraska 5-9-1 ATS
TCU 3-8-1 ATS
Wake Forest 5-15 ATS

There are other schools that flounder in November, with losing wagers go hand in hand. Tulane is 3-9 straight up and against the spread in the month where Thanksgiving resides. Florida Atlantic from the Sun Belt Conference is 4-10 ATS and New Mexico State from the WAC is whacked posting 10-19 ATS numbers. Kent State is 4-22 this month and 8-18 ATS, hardly a cause for thanksgiving, unless you are on the other side.

When it comes to the understanding college football in the last major month of the regular season, be knee-deep in knowledge supporting the right teams that will make you a winner.

3Daily Winners for Thursday

Our Free Picks were 2-0 yesterday with a couple of nice winners. We don’t want to overload you with football systems and we were going to pass on a play all together, but our friends at StatFox.com passed this hockey system along and it is awfully tempting at 23-4. We know a lot of you don’t play the NHL, but at current price, backed with this System, at the very least deserves your attention to follow. Our Top Trend involves a televised TNT game tonight and Slick Rick will try to give us another Free Winner. Good Luck.

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY ON road favorites against the money line like Ottawa, after failing to cover four of their last five against opponent who has won two of their last three contests. This system is 23-4, 85.2 percent and is also backed with Ottawa being 16-6 at Florida.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Phoenix Suns are 0-6 ATS against New Orleans.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Slick Rick of the LCC has won his first two NBA plays and goes for three in a row with Dallas tonight.

Tennessee Titans are Winning Approval

Raise your hand if you expected the Tennessee Titans to be 7-0 halfway through the 2008 NFL season.Any takers? No? I didn’t think so.

After a nationally televised handling of the almighty Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football, the Titans deservedly sit atop the power rankings on every prominent sports website.
Make no mistake; I knew this team would be a contender and most likely end the season with a Wild Card playoff berth. But that was with a much-improved Vince Young at the helm, scampering around making plays with his feet and being smart with his arm. If you told me journeyman Kerry Collins was going to take over this team in the second week of the season and resurrect it from the depths of mediocrity, I might have checked you into an insane asylum.

But this guy has proven to be a veteran signal caller who limits mistakes. And the way the Titans roll with the football and play defense that is all you need. Collins completes on average just over 16 passes an outing and has yet to throw for more than 200 yards in a game this season.

But again, if you’ve bought into Jeff Fisher’s ideology that is all the guy taking snaps has to do to be successful. Remember Steve McNair? Take care of the football and play smash-mouth defense. The Titans are holding opponents to a league-best 12.4 points per game and are +8 in turnover margin which also ranks tops in the NFL.

Speaking of Jeff Fisher, I am going to go ahead and slap the “mastermind” label on his forehead, right above those sunglasses he never seems to pull off. I would put him up against that grandma-headband wearing, hooded guru that stalks the sidelines of Foxboro.

Beginning his career when the Titans were the Houston Oilers back in 1994, Fisher is the longest tenured coach in the NFL with 14 consecutive seasons under his belt. He and his squad made a Super Bowl appearance in 1999 after the infamous Music City Miracle. And then who can forget receiver Kevin Dyson reaching out for the goal line just to be tackled inches short of the game-tying score against the Rams?

But this pigskin genius is only 50 years old. If you are speaking in Joe Paterno years Fisher could be coaching for 30 more seasons! And there is not an inkling of doubt in my mind that he will capture an elusive Super Bowl ring. How many is anyone’s guess.

Earlier this week Collins was quoted saying, “Players love to play for this guy.” And if they don’t or fail to buy into his philosophy then he kindly shows them the door…ahem…Adam Jones! (Side Note: How good would that defense be with Pacman locking down opposing receivers?)

But I compare Fisher to a baseball manager I have the utmost respect for - Tony LaRussa. These two leaders are able to create winners out of nobodies. They find a way to make their team successful without the bazillion dollar contracts and superstars on the field.

Think about it, the biggest name on the Titans team is Vince Young and he’s watching from the sidelines. Let me think who else we have…LenDale White…the guy who was lost in Reggie Bush’s starlight at Southern Cal. And he isn’t even the starting back with rookie speedster Chris Johnson. You are probably saying Chris…who? Albert Haynesworth may be the biggest name they have and he’s a defensive lineman!

I would like to point out a pair of cover corners that deserve to be mentioned while we’re talking Tennessee personnel - Cortland Finnegan and Nick Harper. These guys were just begging to be thrown at on Monday evening and when their number was challenged, they responded. Pass breakups, incompletions and dropped passes were the only numbers Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison saw on the stat sheet.

I’ve watched this team closely on defense and it seems like every single man knows his role and how to execute it. And defense wins championships. The offense is beginning to come around, but does it really need to? They’ve mustered 34 and 31 points in the last couple of games but don’t expect that scoring surge to continue. But it is apparent that if the Titans need to open up the passing game because teams are stacking against the run they can. Receiving space over the middle to a couple of great tight ends in Bo Scaife and Alge Crumpler is parting open like Moses through the Red Sea.

Now don’t go expecting a 16-0 regular season from this squad like we did with the Pats last year. They just don’t have the offensive firepower to do that. When they play teams that are like-minded, love to slow the game down and run the ball, Tennessee will find themselves in the losing column for the first time.

And the Titans haven't just been pleasing their fans this season either. A collection of followers scattered across the country have taken notice to not only their wins on Sunday but the team's winning margins.

Tennessee has not failed to cover a single spread this year, going 7-0 against the number. They are putting lots of cash in the pockets of those fortunate enough to bet on them week in and week out. But eventually the odds will stack high enough and the oddsmakers will adjust high enough to make the cash cow sour.

Regardless of who they are pleasing in Sin City, the Titans are in complete control of the AFC South with a four-game lead over the Colts, Jaguars and Texans who all sit at 3-4. Remember however, Fisher and the boys went 6-2 to jumpstart last season and then went on to lose four of their next five.

This was penned by Scott Cooley, a freelance writer.

Hump Day Betting Info from 3Daily Winners

Our Free Play was a Winner with Cleveland yesterday and we have a NBA play and our NHL guru who is 4-0 at Cappers Watchdog, has his strongest play of the early season today. Our Top Totals System in college football takes a gander at (turn your eyes away if you are into political correctness) the World’s Largest Cocktail Party between Florida and Georgia in Jacksonville. The Top Trend will follow the exploits of a Big 12 team hitting the road off a win. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY UNDER on all teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 after scoring and allowing 30 points or more last game against opponent after scoring 37 points or more in last game. The team that fits this profile is Georgia and this Totals system in incredible 29-3, 90.6 percent, including 4-0 record in 2008.

Free Football Trend -2) Nebraska is 2-10 ATS off a straight up home triumph.

Free Selection -3) Our hockey is 4-0 and says Dallas is the best play this month. Five different guys from the Left Coast Connection are playing Toronto +5.5.

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Phoenix still Underdog to San Antonio

It’s a new era of basketball in Phoenix, gone are days taking a shot every seven seconds from literally anywhere on the floor, to a bunch of old men (in basketball age) playing a more traditional style because the general manager believes this is how you win championships no matter the age of the team. Steve Kerr is a down to earth guy and had a long-standing relationship with majority owner Robert Sarver. Kerr evidently sounded so smart on TV as a broadcaster; Sarver decided he was the best man to run his franchise.

The biggest problem the Suns have is playing four quarters a night against Father Time. New coach Terry Porter has talked about how this team will stress defense. As the season starts, Shaquille O’Neal is 36-years old and Steve Nash is 34. Having never memorized the NBA’s all-defensive team over the last 12-years or more, pretty sure these were not two names that appeared when they were in their prime, let alone as setting-Suns. Raja Bell was a terrific defender for most of his career, however last season showed a significant decline or he was just fed up with being the only player in an orange uniform attempting to play any defense.

Though Amare Stoudemire’s game really shined free of the duties of playing center, don’t think he has a free pass to play power forward all season. Suns insiders have quietly spoken internally about the Big Cactus (Shaq) playing around 60 games if he can stay healthy (unlikely), suggesting Stoudemire will seen plenty of time in the paint.

At least the Suns will have a legitimate back-up point guard in first-year guard Goran Dragic to back up Nash, allowing Leandro Barbosa (Beep-Beep) to run around like he’s crazy, effective one night and not the next.

For years Phoenix has had this obsession about San Antonio, since they always believed they were nearly as good and just needed a few breaks. The fact is the Suns have never been as good, as the playoffs have proven and it has been true in the regular season also. Since the beginning of the 2002-03 season, the Spurs have whipped Phoenix like Indiana Jones carrying around his favorite apparatus, winning nine of 12-games at home (5-6-1 ATS).

Though there is no truth to the rumors about San Antonio players getting BOTOX treatments, they are still the oldest team in the league. They will start the season without one of their star players in Manu Ginobili, who had surgery on his left ankle in September and could be sidelined until December.

Still the Spurs players are comfortable in their normal routines and like being grumpy old men. “We have a proven system. We have a proven bunch of guys,” said Tim Duncan, who begins his 12th season. “And we like our chances.”

Bookmaker.com has the Spurs as two-point favorites with a total of 187.5. This is not an area San Antonio has thrived; being 6-16 ATS last season when the line is +3 to -3.

ESPN will have initial NBA telecast starting at 8 Eastern, with the NBA season only being slightly less time then a presidential campaign.

Thoughts courtesy of Red Wydley.

Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror Betting CFB

Seeing the latest craze in college football by some teams is to change the tempo of the offense and run more plays to keep the defense from changing players to fit situations, I’ll do the same thing this week.

Oklahoma State was expected to be better in 2008, but Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech were all presumed to finish ahead of them in the Big 12 South back in August. Thus far the Cowboys are the only team in college football not to suffer a spread loss at 7-0. You have to wonder if T. Boone Pickens is a betting man (sports’ betting that is), since if he bet his alma mater each game and had “let it ride”, he would be overcoming some of the big financial hits he has taken. It’s becoming more evident coach Mike Gundy can coach and recruit a little. Just asking- If you watched Oklahoma State and USC play on the road last week, whom do you think looked like the better team?

Tulsa is unbeaten and 6-1 ATS and had great second half in covering the spread against Central Florida. They have very good receivers and fascinating way of attacking both on offense and defense. Yet could not help but wonder if they wouldn’t be 6-10 point underdogs to Boise State and TCU on neutral fields, let alone against a top level BCS squad. Big test at Arkansas this week and at Houston on Nov.15.

Minnesota is 7-1 and 6-1 ATS and plays three of final four games at home. The Golden Gophers after a 1-11 campaign caught a scheduling break this season in avoiding Michigan State and Penn State. No doubt Minnesota is much improved, but here is a scary thought. If the Nittany Lions remain unbeaten and Texas or Alabama loses, and Ohio State slips up again, that could mean Minny goes to the Rose Bowl to face possibly face USC. A talented Illinois team was catching 13.5 last year, would the Gophers be on the receiving end of 20?

Though not official yet, Michigan will have 33-year bowl streak broken, still having to play three of last four on the road, including at Ohio State. At 2-6 and 1-7 ATS, the most disconcerting aspect of this Rich Rodriquez coached team is they have not gotten better. Though media-types have continued to say Rodriquez will win in Ann Arbor, watching him and his team on the sidelines is very uncomforting. This isn’t supposed to happen at Michigan. The last Michigan team not to go bowling was the 1974 squad who lost at Ohio State 12-10, ending their perfect 10-0 season, with far fewer bowls back in those days. This won’t have quite the same feel.

Fresno State was supposed to finally win the WAC, but once again the always bold talking Bulldogs are nothing special and causing backer’s lots of cash with 1-6 ATS record. Fresno State’s wins at Rutgers and UCLA are far less impressive today as is the narrow loss at home to Wisconsin. Losing at home to Hawaii is ridiculous and they could hardly have been any luckier in winning at Utah State 30-28 last Saturday as 15-point favorites. Coach Pat Hill has this tough guy persona, but how tough is it to bet against the 105th ranked run defense? Hill reminds me of a golfer who shoots one over par at the hardest course in town and is a 12-handicap at easiest course in the area. Of course all he talks about is his one great round.

Quick notes- What did I say about Pittsburgh last week, NEVER trust a Dave Wannstedt coached-team that is supposed to win.

Just a few of weeks ago it was fun to see the “smart” schools like Vanderbilt and Northwestern doing so well. The Commodores looked like MSNBC poll showing Barack Obama leading the presidential race, with 5-0 record. Three losses later and confronted with Florida and Tennessee at home and at Kentucky and at Wake Forest, the first bowl possibility in 26 years is slipping again. Northwestern not only lost at insipid Indiana, they lost all everything running back Tyrell Sutton.

Florida State is not only 6-1 and 3-2 ATS, they are returning to physical, smarter football.

At the end of September, talked about what a mess the Big East was based on how down the league is this year, it made sense to look at road teams in conference game. Thus far road teams are 6-4 ATS with four outright wins. One aspect not considered was road favorites and they are 1-2 SU and ATS.

After a 5-8-1 start, college football teams off a three exact spread covers are 10-3 ATS the last three weeks. That would mean Arkansas, Florida, Iowa and Louisville are possible play on teams. The opposite would be true for those failing to cover in a trio of tilts. On the season this group is 9-18-1 ATS and Clemson, Iowa State and Kentucky all make this week’s play against watch list.

Terrific Tuesday Wagering Lookahead

The Indianapolis Colts prevented us from having a 2-0 day; however the Top Trend was a NHL winner. For this upcoming NFL Sunday, we have an 84.6 percent first half system and an incredible trend on the money line concerning the odorous Oakland Raiders. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line after a game where they committed four or more turnovers against opponent after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. This first betting system is 22-4, 84.6 percent and suggests to back Buffalo.

Free Football Trend -2) The Oakland Raiders are is 1-17 against the money line after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games the last 16 years.

Free Hoops Selection -3) Professional basketball starts tonight and Randy from the Left Coast Connection has been the best NBA bettor among the group to my understanding and he is making a small wager on Cleveland at +6.5 tonight.

Checking out NBA Season Win Totals

Living in Las Vegas for many years and being a season ticket holder for UNLV basketball and football and thus a long-time observer of Mountain West Conference sports, the only thing that surprised me more than Utah center Andrew Bogut being the first player drafted in the 2005 NBA draft by the Milwaukee Bucks was quarterback Alex Smith from Utah being the first player drafted in that year’s NFL draft.

Now mind you, I don’t have anything against the University of Utah nor even the Beehive State in general. But I watched these guys first hand perform in college and I just couldn’t see either one of them being worthy of the title of “America’s Most Wanted Draft Choice”.

Well, maybe Alex Smith will change positions and turn out like former All-American Kansas QB Nolan Cromwell, who was drafted in the second round by the LA Rams as a defensive back. Cromwell went on to play in four straight Pro Bowls.

While Andrew Bogut isn’t wearing a cape and performing in All-Star dunk contests, he is quietly turning out to be an upper quality post man in the NBA. Which leads us to our first season-win wager for the 2008-09 NBA season.

Take Milwaukee OVER 30.5 wins

I have had the good fortune of having traveled around the country, and even the world (if Arkansas counts), in my short lifetime (I plan on living to be 105. I want to see the Kansas City Royals in another World Series). However, I have never been to Milwaukee. My wife is dying to go so she can experience the “Laverne and Shirley Tour” and a first hand visit to the Shotz Brewery.

The Milwaukee Bucks made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2001. That was their zenith this century. Milwaukee won 26 games last year, down from 28 the year before. That was one of only three instances out of twelve possibilities over the past four seasons where an NBA team fell below 30 wins for the season and did not improve by at least eight games the following season.

The Bucks have a new General Manager, John Hammond. He was VP of Operations for the Detroit Pistons for a number of years, a very successful franchise. Hammonds had turned down other offers in the past, perhaps he just liked working down the street from the Shotz plant.
The Bucks have a new coach, fiery Scott Skiles. Skiles won’t win any personality awards with players, but he will improve a team immediately. Defense will be the focus along with a new sense of discipline.

The Bucks decided to play for the now and not the future in trading away young Chinese seven-footer Yi Jianlian to the Nets. They lost potential in exchange for a sure thing. Jefferson will remove a lot of pressure from Michael Redd to be the main scorer every night.

Center Bogut has turned into a legit scoring option with 38 double-doubles & is a good shot blocker and should improve again this year. The X-factor is PF Charlie Villanueva. He just doesn’t always show up. (which will give him an immediate reservation to Coach Skiles doghouse). In games last year that Charlie V. played at least 35 minutes, he averaged 25.4 points and 10.8 rebounds. Maybe he just needs to be in the game and not waiting on the bench.
The weak spot is at point guard where former Sonic (remember them?) Luke Ridnour resides. However, we aren’t asking the Bucks to win the division title, just get into the 30’s in total wins. Something I feel very comfortable in putting my money on.

Take the Portland OVER 43.5 Wins

Okay, I have to admit a bias for the GM of Portland, former point guard for the 1988 national champions of my alma mater, the University of Kansas, Kevin Pritchard. Besides Pritchard’s talent of making shots off-balance, in my eyes his most remarkable talent was being able to have a grizzly five-o’clock shadow beard every single day of his college career. He is the only guy I have ever seen at that age look older than Greg Oden!

Pritchard has done a remarkable job in building the Blazers through a myriad of moves in the past few years. I watched Brandon Roy in the Vegas Summer League a few years ago and proclaimed him the future rookie of the year. The man was unbelievable.

Portland now has possibly the best rookie with last-year’s injured center Greg Oden. Oden has been impressive in pre-season and gives the team an aspect many teams only wish to have.
An acquisition that many people are excited about is Spaniard 6-5 Rudy Fernandez who helped Spain to the Silver Medal in the Olympics. He attacks the rim and will get to the line.
PF LaMarcus Adridge made a quantum leap in his second year and could give the Blazers effective high-low action with Oden. The Blazers have very good front court depth with Channing Frye, Ike Diogu, and Joel Przybilla.

The biggest preseason surprise has been French draftee SF 6-8 Nicolas Batum, mostly known for his defense. The team also plays defense finishing in the top ten in most categories. Getting G Martell Webster back from injury into the season will be a plus. PG is the weak spot but Steve Blake is steady.

Portland won 41 games last year. They need to improve defensively but having Oden in the lane will help. They are a better team this year and should eclipse the OVER in season wins.
Other plays that I have made and recommend:

Memphis OVER 22.5 wins
Charlotte UNDER 36.5 wins

Good luck, it should be a fun season!

Note: Jim Kruger is a friend of 3Daily Winners and owns Vegas Sports Authority.

Not just another Manic Money

Good bounce back effort on Sunday. The System and the Trend plays were easy Winners and we are going to give Kendall some slack on his Carolina pick, since it officially lost, he emailed copy of betting ticket proving he had a push. One the day he was 2-1-1, raising his record to 28-6-1 betting the NFL. Guessing the recession hasn’t hurt him to bad. On a personal note, consider myself very lucky yesterday. Not a big parlay player and wouldn’t recommend very often. I actually like New England and Baltimore yesterday, but when the lines shot up to -9, got off them. Instead took them on the money line with Dallas and Tulsa against the spread. Thanks to unbelievable 35-0 second half by Tulsa, hit the four-teamer. Sometimes you just get lucky.

Today we have System pertaining to the presumably good Monday night matchup, which is 81.2 percent. We turn to the world of hockey for today’s Top Trend. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road teams like the Indianapolis Colts who are off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite, in weeks 5 through 9. This sharp system is 26-6 ATS, 81.2 percent, including picking up a winner earlier this season.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Minnesota Wild has taken 11 of last 14 games against Chicago.

Free Football Selection -3) Somewhat surprisingly, nearly every member of the Left Coast Connection is on tonight's NFL game. What is equally surprising, the action is nearly split right down the middle, which has seldom happens on almost any game. Everyone is on the Phillies and about 25 percent are taking Philly on the run line to increase payout if correct.

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Can Tennessee Start 7-0 ATS in 2008?

Though the Tennessee Titans are off to their best start in franchise history at 6-0, the competition has not been as difficult as say Pittsburgh has faced. This week Tennessee can make a statement about the order of power in the AFC South when they play host to Indianapolis. Jeff Fisher’s club follows his lead, plays with tremendous enthusiasm and tough-mindedness. NFL bettors everywhere have taken notice, with Tennessee having covered all six contests.

Indianapolis knows a thing or two about fast starts, having started 7-0 last season, 9-0 in 2006 and 13-0 in ’05, yet are off to their slowest start in four years with a 3-3 mark through six games. But a win on the road against the undefeated Titans would not only allow to get back in the division race, it would let everyone know the five-time defending AFC South champions aren’t about to give up their perch without a fight.

Tennessee is the only other team to win the AFC South since its inception in 2002, and though the Titans managed a wild-card berth as runners-up to Indianapolis in ’03 and a third-place finish a year ago they have their sights set on the top spot.

In what was thought to be a trap game last Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium, the Titans kept their focus and rolled to a 34-10 victory over the rebuilding Chiefs. Rookie running back Chris Johnson (168 yards) and LenDale White (149) ripped Kansas City for 317 yards on the ground. Tennessee is 12-2 ATS after gaining 200 or more rushing yards last game.

Injuries have been a factor in the Colts uncharacteristic start. Two-time, 1,000-yard rusher Joseph Addai sat out last week’s 34-14 defeat in Green Bay with a knee injury suffered in the first quarter in Week 6. Though Addai scored four times in the first four games, he averaged only 53.5 yards per outing and 3.5 yards per carry. The Colts need him back healthy, albeit he doesn’t have the greatest track record against the Titans with 199 yards in three full games. Indianapolis was off-kilter the whole game at Lambeau Field and should have no trouble refocusing for this conflict. The Colts are 16-5 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points a game on the season.

The all-time regular-season series, including seven meetings between the Baltimore Colts and Houston Oilers, stands at 15-11 in favor of Indy. The Colts are 8-2 and 6-4 ATS in last 10 games with the Under 6-0 since 2006.

Bookmaker.com has Tennessee as a four-point favorite with a total 40. Throw out last year’s season finale in which Indianapolis was resting their starters and this will be the first time since 2003 the Titans have been favored against the Colts in meaningful game.

Indianapolis covers if they contain the Titans fourth ranked rushing offense that averages 153.8 yards per game. The Colts run defense ranks 29th, which means the Indy linebackers have to do a much better job getting off blocks and making plays. They are 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards a carry. Tony Dungy’s club has to limit mistakes, like 23 penalties in last two games. Though the running game has not been productive, OC Tom Moore must show more patience and have more rushing attempts. Indy is 8-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of .750 percent or higher over the last three seasons.

Tennessee covers if they do one of the things Green Bay did last week, get physical with the Colts receivers. Titans’ cornerbacks Cortland Finnegan and Nick Harper would appear to be well equipped to slow down Indianapolis receivers by how they like to play. Coach Fisher is big on taking on challenges, find out early how bad the Colts defense really wants to stop the run, bludgeon them in the A and B gaps. The Tennessee defense leads the NFL in fewest points allowed and is 18-6 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games.

Our Monday night system looks to play on a division favorite of a touchdown or less that has won two straight games. This system is 25-8 ATS, 75.8 percent.

Week 8 of the NFL Season - Free Plays

It was bound to happen and boy did it ever! After almost two weeks of winners, we were 0-3 yesterday and 1-7 for the week in college football. Paul Buck and many other members from the Left Coast Connection took a hit yesterday as well. We can brag on ourselves when things are going great, but have to tell the truth when they don’t go so well. Today’s Top System is on an underdog, with an 85.7 winning percentage. We have a 100 percent sharp angle today and Kendall who has been a beast, has his top NFL game for today. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 10.5 or more points who are pathetic team, being out-gained by their opponents by 100 or more yards a game, after being out-gained by 100 or more total yards in two consecutive games. That is would be clumsy Kansas City Chiefs today, with this system 24-4 ATS, 85.7 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) The Cleveland Browns are 10-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) Kendall from the LCC is scintillating 26-5 ATS in the NFL and is on Carolina today.

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