Early Line Moves

For the Early Line Moves, we seek out the earliest lines and compare them on late Tuesday nights numbers to see what the so-called Line Movers do. Last week in college football these plays were a solid 4-3 on the sides and a dandy 2-0 in college totals. This makes season record 65-39-1, 62.5 percent on sides and 43-36, 54.4 percent on Totals in CFB. In the NFL, it was an improvement at 1-0 mark on sides bringing the record to 13-12, 52 percent. On the Totals they came in so-so at 1-1, making the updated figure 21-17-1, 55.2 percent. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.

College Sides
Rutgers -13 to -10.5 Lost (What were they thinking)
USC -30 to -32
Oklahoma-14 to -16.5

College Totals
Louis/ Rutg. 50.5 to 52Winner
Buff/Ball St 59.5 to 61 Winner
ASU/AZ 54 to 50
USC/UCLA 50.5 to 48
Miss0/Okla. 84 to 79.5

NFL Sides
None

NFL Totals
Hou/GB 49 to 47
Phil/NYG 45.5 to 44
Atl/NO 53.5 to 51.5
Dall/Pitt 41.5 to 40

Saturday Betting Numbers to Consider

A rough Friday at 1-3, but I was honestly rooting for the trend to lose, since I was on Philly to win. I expect today’s Top Trend to come back, being a perfect number. Today’s best System in college football is 29-6 ATS including 2-0 this season and features a conference title game tilt. Our Free Play might be a shocker, but this professional bettor is HOT! Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like East Carolina, after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent like Tulsa after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games. This system has delivered spread winners at a rate of 82.9 percent over the last decade.

Free Football Trend -2) Arkansas State is 0-10 ATS after a game where they forced three or more turnovers over the last three seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) Jason from the Left Coast Connection has won 9 of last 11 CFB plays and is 37-20 the 16 days in all his plays and is Backing the Crimson Tide to roll. He's even betting the money line with Bama.

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Conference Championship Info

The SEC was the innovator in developing a cash cow called the Conference Championship game back in 1992. The Southeastern Conference knew there customer was a football starved fan and would relish the opportunity for one more game to decide the league’s title. Most years this has provided additional excitement by splitting the conference into two divisions, giving more schools an opportunity to compete in the confrontation. Alabama and Florida met in the first three games between these schools in this instant classic. In the first game, unbeaten Alabama came in ranked number two in the country and was a solid 10-point favorite over a Florida team that had lost three times, coached by Steve Spurrier, who had just started things rolling at his alma mater. With this being such a new venture, the SEC settled on Legion Field in Birmingham, the Crimson Tide’s home away from home. This guaranteed a sellout and the game was played there the first two years.

Nobody knew how the players would react, since this was a new concept. Alabama had allowed only eight points a game with its stifling defense, but a cocksure Spurrier had his team well prepared with nothing to lose and took the opening kickoff for a touchdown. The Tide’s defense had trouble all game long with the Gators, allowing 347 yards, after averaging surrendering only a 183 yards per game. Alabama hung on to win 28-21 over Florida and that game left such a weak impression on oddsmakers and the wagering public, #1 Miami-Fl. was an 8.5-point favorite in the Sugar Bowl for the national championship. Bama had gotten the nerves out of the way in the SEC title game and gave an overwhelming performance in destroying the top ranked Hurricanes 34-13.

This spawned other conferences to follow suit with mixed success in some cases, however no debating the excitement and discussion these games cause. Bettors receive five additional possibilities to consider that have often had their share of surprises. Here’s a look at the history of each of the conference championships.

SEC
The SEC will be playing it 17th championship game and returns to its roots with No. 1 Alabama facing what many believe is the best team in the country today in Florida. In the previous sixteen years, four teams, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee or LSU have been one of the participants in this contest. The favorite has won 13 of the 16 games and has covered just seven times (7-8-1 ATS). For many college football fans this game would do just fine to settle the national championship in 2008. However, it is step one for the winner, moving to BCS title game and will likely be a favorite against whomever they play.

Past SEC Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/1/07 - LSU (-7, 58) 21, TENNESSEE 14 - FAV / Push / UNDER
12/2/06 - FLORIDA (-3, 44.5) 38, ARKANSAS 28 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/3/05 - GEORGIA 34, LSU (-2, 42) 14 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/4/04 - AUBURN (-14.5, 47.5) 38, TENNESSEE 28 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/6/03 - LSU (-3, 42) 34, GEORGIA 13 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/02 - GEORGIA (-9, 47) 30, ARKANSAS 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/8/01 - LSU 31, TENNESSEE (-7, 54) 20 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/2/00 - FLORIDA (-10, 51.5) 28, AUBURN 6 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/4/99 - ALABAMA 34, FLORIDA (-7, 51) 7 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/5/98 - TENNESSEE (-15, 48) 24, MISSISSIPPI ST 14 - FAV / DOG / UNDER
12/6/97 - TENNESSEE (-7.5, 58.5) 30, AUBURN 29 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/7/96 - FLORIDA (-14, 48.5) 45, ALABAMA 30 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/2/95 - FLORIDA (-24, 56) 34, ARKANSAS 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/3/94 - FLORIDA (-7, 46.5) 24, ALABAMA 23 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/4/93 - FLORIDA (-4.5, 43.5) 28, ALABAMA 13 - FAV / FAV / UNDER

12/5/92 - ALABAMA (-10, 37) 28, FLORIDA 21 - FAV / DOG / OVER

Big 12
The Big 12 joined the festivities in 1996 and exploded onto the scene with a memorable contest. Nebraska had its usual powerhouse and was huge 20.5-point favorites over Texas, who had lost four regular season games. Coach John Makovic emptied the playbook, utilizing trick plays and fourth down attempts and upset the heavily favored Cornhuskers 37-27. This gave the Big 12 affair instant credibility. Two years later, an unbeaten Kansas State squad cruised into the title game as 17.5-point favorites and was upset 36-33 by Texas A&M. Five seasons later, the Wildcats were able to pull the same trick on Oklahoma. The Sooners were unbeatable and two touchdown favorites over Bill Snyder’s K-State club. The Wildcats came out throwing deep and caught an overconfident Oklahoma team off-guard and buried Bob Stoops Sooners 35-7. Those represent the only three losses by the favored team in 12 tries. The underdog is 4-7-1 ATS in the history of the game. Since 2002, this contest has been a series of blowouts, with the average winning margin being 32.1, which includes Texas 70-3 shellacking of Colorado in 2005, the year they won the national championship. Seven of the 12 contests played have covered the spread by 10 or more points. The UNDER is on a streak of five in a row.

Past Big 12 Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/1/07 – OKLAHOMA (-3, 64.5) 38, MISSOURI 17 - FAV /FAV / UNDER
12/2/06 - OKLAHOMA (-3.5, 44.5) 21, NEBRASKA 7 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/3/05 - TEXAS (-25, 60.5) 70, COLORADO 3 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/4/04 - OKLAHOMA (-23.5, 54.5) 42, COLORADO 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/6/03 - KANSAS ST 35, OKLAHOMA (-14, 53) 7 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/7/02 - OKLAHOMA (-7, 51) 29, COLORADO 7 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/01 - COLORADO 39, TEXAS (-7, 54.5) 37 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/00 - OKLAHOMA (-3, 53) 27, KANSAS ST 24 - FAV / Push / UNDER
12/4/99 - NEBRASKA (-8, 52.5) 22, TEXAS 6 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/5/98 - TEXAS A&M 36, KANSAS ST (-17.5, 46) 33 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/6/97 - NEBRASKA (-19, 53) 54, TEXAS A&M 15 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/96 - TEXAS 37, NEBRASKA (-20.5, 56) 27 - DOG / DOG / OVER

MAC

In 1997, the MAC joined in and has been the most entertaining of the conference championships. Eight of the 11 games played have been decided by eight points or less in highly competitive conflicts. Unbeaten Ball State adds some real excitement to this year’s encounter and is playing for the title for the first time matched against Buffalo, who is also making maiden voyage to this year’s event. Being the underdog is the better position in this match-up as they are 7-4 ATS, with the favorite 6-5 straight up. Following the same trail, the team with the poorer record heading into the game is 6-2-1 ATS.

Past MAC Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/1/07 – C MICHIGAN (-3, 64) 35, MIAMI OHIO 10 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
11/30/06 - C MICHIGAN (-3, 46.5) 31, OHIO U 10 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/05 - AKRON 31, N ILLINOIS (-13, 53.5) 30 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/04 - TOLEDO 35, MIAMI OHIO (-1.5, 64) 27 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/4/03 - MIAMI OHIO (-6.5, 57) 49, BOWLING GREEN 27 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/02 - MARSHALL (-2.5, 62.5) 49, TOLEDO 45 - FAV / FAV / OVER
11/30/01 - TOLEDO 41, MARSHALL (-2.5, 63.5) 36 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/00 - MARSHALL 18, W MICHIGAN (-6.5, 54.5) 14 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/3/99 - MARSHALL (-20, 56.5) 34, W MICHIGAN 30 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/4/98 - MARSHALL (-12, 48) 23, TOLEDO 17 - FAV / DOG / UNDER
12/5/97 - TOLEDO (, ) 14, MARSHALL 34 - N/A / N/A / N/A

ACC

The ACC and Conference USA are the latest to engage in the fray in the last few years. The ACC has had severe attendance problems, not being able to bring many of the locals to the contests played in Jacksonville. They will change venues this year and try their luck in Tampa. The ACC has seen the favored teams lose outright two of three times, opening up more conjecture for this season. The matchup pits Boston College and Virginia Tech in a rematch of their 10/18 contest. This is the first ACC title game appearance for the Eagles. The Hokies are making their third trip in four years.

Past ACC Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/1/07 – VIRGINIA TECH (-4, 48) 30, BOSTON COLLEGE 16 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/2/06 - WAKE FOREST 9, GEORGIA TECH (-1, 40) 6 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/3/05 - FLORIDA ST 27, VIRGINIA TECH (-14.5, 45) 22 - DOG / DOG / OVER

Conference USA
Conference USA does not have the football tradition to play such a game at a neutral site and instead has one of the teams participating as the host. The home team has won and covered two-thirds of the contests. Last year the oddsmaker posted a 73-point total, hindering this contest from going Over for the first time in this defensively challenged conference. In looking at the history of all games played on the home field of one team, the host is 7-2, covering the spread on five occasions. The Over has been the play in six of the nine affairs.

Past Conference USA Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/1/07 - CENTRAL FLORIDA (-7.5, 73) 44, TULSA 25 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/06 - HOUSTON (-5.5, 53.5) 34, SOUTHERN MISS 20 - FAV / FAV / OVER
2/3/05 - TULSA (-2.5, 57) 44, C FLORIDA 27 - FAV / FAV / OVER

Will the Evil Genius Fluster Florida?

The SEC championship games returns to its roots so to speak, with this matchup. Florida and Alabama played in the first three Southeastern Conference title tilts starting back in 1992. The uncertainty of those games and what they meant on a larger scale came more into focus later with the birth of the BCS. The 2008 title game has kind of a Final Four feel about it, with the winner of these two tremendous teams moving on to the BCS championship. As opposed to the hoops counterpart, the loser is “relegated” to the Sugar Bowl, instead of the championship game.

Alabama whipped rival Auburn 36-0, doing what they do best, running the ball and controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Crimson Tide ran the ball 50 times for 4.6 yards per carry and effectively averaged 17 yards per completion. Against the Gators, they must be able to keep the contest at their pace, not the frenetic Florida style. The Crimson Tide controls the ball for over 32 minutes a game and is 6-0 ATS away from home after two or more victories. On defense, Bama is third in the country, allowing 248.5 yards per game because of what they do up front. Also, they disguise coverage’s well, utilizing the zone blitz package that cuts down on the kind of big plays that occur when a blitzing team gets burned. Alabama is 6-0 ATS after allowing nine points or less in last game since Nick Saban became coach.

Florida has the look of national championship material, gator-izing opponents by 39.6 points per game since suffering only defeat to Mississippi. Let’s not joke around; today this is the best team in the country. Every other team in contention for the national championship has identifiable warts, except Florida. There is no faze of the game they are not excelling and would be favored against every team they would face in the national championship.

The Gators have shown a propensity to take down teams that hog the pigskin with a 13-3 ATS mark in road games vs. ball control teams, who have the ball 32 or more possession minutes a game.

2007 Heisman winner Tim Tebow might be picking up the same hardware as last year with a shining performance against the Tide. Tebow is a unique athlete in today’s world, everything he says he backs up. He took responsibility for the Ole Miss loss, off he and the Gators went. He’s led this team to 11-1 and 9-2 ATS record this year and Florida is 12-4 against the number after a win by 17 or more points over the last two seasons.

Bookmaker.com has Florida favored by 10-points with a total of 52. Using deduction reasoning, oddmakers are telling us the Gators won 31-21. Thus if Florida is to cover, they would also probably make a good Over bet, especially with home run potential. Conversely, if the Crimson Tide are to cover and pull the upset, they need to make this a 60 minute game, meaning punch Florida in the mouth a few times, get the running game going and see if the Gators can play defense for 30 or more minutes. This would in turn lead to an Under play.

Since 1992, these to schools have met five times in the postseason, compared to four in the regular season. Florida is 5-4 and 3-5-1 ATS and the number two team will be a rare favorite against the top team in the country. Going as far back as 1992, no unbeaten team has been a double digit underdog to a once beaten team after 10 or more games during the regular season.

CBS will have the telecast of what is the biggest game of the year in college to date at 4 Eastern and what might be later looked upon as the real championship game.

College Football Game Writeups

The ACC and Conference USA will crown their official champions on Saturday afternoon, in what should be two games unlikely to have starker contrast. About the only thing to need to know is the ACC has an expected total of 38.5 and the C-USA encounter is 65.5. Two outstanding traditional rivalries will be renewed with the Army and Navy matchup (always a well disciplined game) and USC and UCLA meeting again, with the Trojans seeking to make a return date to the Rose Bowl on the first day of the New Year. Click here to read more.

Double-Digit NBA Pointspreads and Lots More

I love handicapping and betting the NBA as well as enjoy reading articles and books about the same. I continuously read or talk to people that say there is no way to beat the NBA on a regular basis. I understand why they feel that way. It can be very frustrating to watch a team blow a 20-point second-half lead or an elite team lose outright to a cellar-dweller. If you are going to bet the NBA, you first have to realize those type of games are going to happen. The NBA is the most situational sport to handicap bar none. There are games with teams that have no rest versus teams with two or three days rest. There are teams that have a non-conference game in between two divisional games. If you just handicap NBA games based on fundamentals, I believe you are missing the big picture and will have a very difficult time in winning on a consistent basis.

There are as many different thoughts and ideas on how to handicap the NBA as there are people that bet it. As I did last year, this season I will again write about betting myths, handicapping fallacies, and other pertinent points involving betting the NBA. The point is to help readers understand what handicapping the NBA entails and how to make money at doing so.

I just read an article that somebody had written and put on the Internet talking about how to handicap the NBA. Their first rule was to eliminate any game with a double-digit point spread. If you would have done this last year, you would have immediately eliminated 19.6% of all regular season games, 237 games. That is one reason why I love the NBA: there is a plethora of games and they happen every single day, even Christmas and Thanksgiving. I get to pick and choose what games I bet on but the oddsmaker has to put lines and totals up for every game. In my mind, I get to cherry pick which gives me the advantage.

Saying to eliminate double-digit dogs from betting consideration caught me by surprise because there are some very good trends involving double-digit dogs that are worthy of betting. Yes, they may take some work to uncover, but isn't that is what handicapping is all about? Anybody who says to not even consider games with double-digit dogs needs to quickly re-examine their line of logic.

A great trend that I found on the StatFox FoxSheets is to bet on a road double-digit underdog when it is playing a team that has lost two of its last three games. The qualifier is the double-digit favorite has to be a team with a winning record but less than a 60% winning percentage. Over the past five years, betting on this trend, you would have a 31-9 record, 77.5%. The double-digit dog sees a vulnerable team in their opponent as they have dropped some games recently and they aren't a first-tier NBA team. The dog definitely has some bite to it. Its bite gets bigger to the tune of 16-2 ATS if the dog was playing at home in their previous game.

Let's look at some other profitable trends involving double-digit dogs. A team's rest and their opponent's rest can have a factor in the outcome of a game. Double-digit dogs over the past five years that have rest and are playing a team who played a game yesterday don't give us a trend worth betting on a side, but we do have a 60% winning wager betting on the Under. That is an easy-to-find situation that pays nicely.

There are many factors to look at in handicapping the NBA. One qualifier to take into account is the quality of the teams based on their winning percentage. If our double-digit dog is winning only 30% of less of it's games, not a very good team, and they are playing a team with a 60% or better winning percentage, the Under happens 57.1% of the time, 76-57, over the past three years. We can improve our winning percentage to 64% if both teams have played their previous game on the road.

A lot of handicappers like to bet on teams that have recently covered the spread on a better than average basis. It is best to look at very basic trends and to add different qualifiers to such teams. Let’s start with a team that is on a 3 game ATS covering streak as a double-digit dog. Again, there is nothing worthwhile in betting on the double-digit dog, just a 51.4% winner over the past five years. However, if you bet the Under in such a situation, you would be winning 63.2% of your bets. Move that winning ATS streak up to at least 4 straight games and you are cashing your Under tickets 66.7% of the time.

How about if a team has covered the point spread in at least 4 or more of their last 6 contests and now they find themselves getting 10 or more points by the linesmaker? You do have a 56.8% winning bet on the big dog, but a much better money-maker is betting the Under in such games. With that wager you have a 70.5% winner, 31-13, over the past three seasons. Yeah, I’ll take a look at double-digit dogs.

A more basic trend involving double-digit dogs is if the lined total is 180 or lower, just play the Under and you have a 73.9% winner over the past three years.

This brings me to a point that really needs to be brought up. I don't like to go back very many years when using a specific totals range as scoring in the NBA has changed over the years. A totals range in the 170's was more prevalent five years ago than it is today. In 2003, there were 279 games during the regular season with a lined total in the 170's. Last year there were only 15 games with that low of total posted by the linesmakers. Looking at the other end, lined totals of 210 to 220, there were only three in all of the 2000-01 season. Last year there were 173.

Incidentally, 55.3% of those games with that total range last year went Over.

To the people who are immediately eliminating handicapping NBA games with double-digit dogs, shame on you. You are missing some very good betting opportunities by putting blinders on.

Jim Kruger is a basketball expert and is the main man for Vegas Sports Authority.

Wagering Tips for Friday Dec. 6

A .500 day for Thursday left us thirsting for more and we’ll try and find it with a NBA system that is 82.1 percent. Also in the NBA, we follow the exploits of the Detroit Pistons who thrive this month in recent years. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home favorites after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games. In this case we are looking to play against Utah, who could be on the short end of system that has won 23 of 28 times the last five years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Detroit Pistons are 17-1 ATS in December the last few years.

Free Football Selection -3) From the Left Coast Connection, we have 11 on Ball State, 4 on Buffalo and 7 on the Over in tonight MAC title game.

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Top Wagering Info for Dec. 4

Gosh we love boring here, another 2-1 day at 3Daily Winners. The big Texas vs. UCLA game tonight has a perfect angle favoring one of the combatants. We have an 88.8 percent money line NHL system riding this evening. The guy that gave us the Air Force winner in college hoops on Thursday, has two more free plays today. Good Luck.

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs of +100 to +150 against the money line like New Jersey, revenging a same season loss vs opponent, well rested team - playing three or less games in 10 days like Philadelphia. This puck system is 24-3 on the money line since 2004.

Free Basketball Trend -2) UCLA is 8-0 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Free Selections -3) The same person from the Left Coast Connection that gave us the winner here yesterday is on Kent State in basketball and Rutgers in football tonight.

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Bet the Freakin' Farm on Rutgers

Earlier this year, it was suggested by several writers across the lower 48 and myself that possibly Greg Schiano, the Rutgers coach, had made a bad career move and not moved on from Rutgers after celebrated 11-2 season in 2006. As we are all aware, timing is extremely important in life. Last season was not expected to be as positive as the previous year with too many defensive players graduated, and the Scarlet Knights went to a second consecutive bowl game for the first time ever and got a pat on the head for finishing 8-5.

The warm and fuzzy feelings were dissipating for Rutgers, being predicted no better than fourth in most preseason magazines despite 15 returning starters and an experienced signal caller like Mike Teel. The season started a complete disaster, with home televised losses to Fresno State and North Carolina, followed by a loss at Navy. At 0-3 and turnover margin of -8, things were looking bleaker than the New Jersey economy.

A 38-0 win against Morgan State did not turn anyone’s head, especially after losing at West Virginia and Cincinnati, though covering the spread the last two. A gut wrenching, hard fought 12-10 win over Connecticut stemmed the negativity and changed the entire attitude of the team and the program.

After the offense went three weeks without committing a turnover, Teel and his receivers finally clicked, totaling 371 yards passing at Pittsburgh, who had been hot, and cruised to a 54-34 road upset as 9.5-point underdogs. The Knights have won their last three games by 114-36, becoming bowl eligible and can cement the invite with win tonight over Louisville (5-6, 4-6 ATS).

Once college football teams hit November, their lot is cast, oh sure the occasional upset occurs, but for the most part if you are playing well, you continue to and the same goes the other way. With Rutgers on five game winning streak, with an average margin of victory of 20 points, no team is playing better in the Big East and that might include BCS bound league champ Cincinnati. With Teel and the offense on fire, Rutgers is 10-1 ATS when they score 28 or more points over the last two seasons.

Now take a team picture of Louisville. Since upsetting what was believed to be a still good South Florida team 24-20 at home in late October (Rutgers beat USF 49-13 at there place), the Cardinals have crashed to earth with four losses in a row, committing 14 turnovers along the way. None of these defeats have been competitive either, failing to cover the spread in any of the four, making Louisville colder than a Papa John’s pizza delivered an hour late.

A few hardy contrarians will point to this is the perfect setup for Louisville to upset Rutgers, thinking another Brohm brother is still playing quarterback and this is the Cardinals from a few seasons ago. Enough bettors are going that way with the line at Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets having dropped to 10.5 points after opening at 13, with a total of 51. The Knights are 8-1 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last three seasons.
Remember all the love defensive coordinator Ron English was receiving for keeping the Cardinals in games with the defense, 132 points and 435 yards per game later after four straight losses, the praise has turned to mumbling.

What I’m proposing in the title of the article, is to bet the farm, seeing most people don’t have farms to wager, from a legal standpoint, I’m on solid ground. With the Rutgers defense having allowed more than 17 points just once in last six games and Teel throwing laser shots to receivers Kenny Britt, Tiquan Underwood, and Tim Brown, expect coach Schiano and his team to triumph by 20 points and easily cover the spread like a fresh cover of snow on the grass.

Methods to Improve your College Hoops Handicapping

College basketball is a sport that has more variance by teams from season to season than any other. You are dealing only with five players competing at one time against another team. One player can make a huge difference in a team’s results on a straight-up basis and also in covering the point spread. If you were a NCAA hoops fan in 1988, you will remember Danny and the Miracles winning it all for the University of Kansas. Can anyone name any of Danny Manning’s teammates?

It is never too early to start looking at a team’s characteristics and tendencies in college hoops. After all, you want to get on a team or find squads to bet against as early as possible when the point spreads and totals might not be entirely in line. Many of the teams you find to bet against will not be in the same form they were last year or not living up to expectations. And, obviously, just the opposite is true when looking for teams to put on your “play on list”. You can find line value on the surprise teams that everybody else hasn’t already spotted and you can find get extra points going against the disappointing teams.

Many times when a coach leaves a program, especially after a few good years, it seems the program takes a downturn, as if the outgoing coach knew the incoming and returning talent wasn’t going to be able to keep up with the success of prior campaigns. This appears to be the situation at Wichita State with Mark Turgeon leaving the wheat fields of Kansas for the Aggies of Texas A&M last year. WSU struggled with all types of bad luck last season even though they were able to hire a fine coach, Greg Marshall, with a very good track record. As head coach of Big South Winthrop, Marshall led his team to seven NCAA Tournament appearances in nine years. That is even more impressive when you realize this is a league that gets one invitation to the Big Dance.

Marshall has taken a diverse team of newbies and covered the spread three games in a row against quality competition including Georgetown and Michigan State. This is a team that was picked in the bottom three of the Missouri Valley Conference. Marshall is an excellent teacher and I expect WSU to outperform preseason predictions. They are currently sporting a 4-0 against the spread record and a team worth watching.

UNLV is a team that was picked to win the Mountain West and finish in the Top 25. A strong recruiting class was supposed to help the three returning starters, especially in the middle where the Rebels started 6-7 Joe Darger at center last year. Five-star recruit 7-0 Beas Hamga has seen virtually zero minutes as he is the epitome of a project. UNLV is counting on 3-point shots to fall as their lack of an inside presence has hurt them. The offense revolves around star guard Wink Adams. If he is not playing up to par, UNLV is an average team at best. The Rebels are 1-4-1 ATS even though they were picked to win the Mountain West Conference. UNLV dropped two games over the weekend with Adams going 5 for 25 from the field averaging 7.5 ppg.

In determining which teams to wager on, a statistic I like to look at is the difference in offensive field goal shooting and defensive shooting percentage. I have long maintained that good shooting teams are ones you want to look at to back against the point spread. Playing good defense only makes a team tougher to beat. Wake Forest is among leaders the nation in this category along with Arizona and Utah. Stew Morrill’s teams are always tough Utah State and they lead the country in shooting percentage at 56.6 percent. These are the types of teams I will look to play on as the season progresses.

Teams that are at the other end of the spectrum are Wright State, Louisiana-Monroe, Drexel, and UC-Irvine. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that a team that doesn’t shoot well and doesn’t defend well is not a good team to bet on. These are teams I put in my “play against” file.

Another statistical area I like to examine is a teams’ turnover differential. When you have many teams only taking 57 to 63 shots per game, a discrepancy in the number of net turnovers each team has can make a difference in the outcome of the game. Teams that have a very good differential include Louisville, Houston, Davidson, West Virginia, Missouri, and Nebraska. These teams also have a 14-6 ATS mark at the time of writing this article. Protecting the rock while being able to steal it are two qualities I want in teams I back.

I am always wary of putting my money on teams that shoot an extraordinary number of three-point goals relative to their two-point field goal attempts. If hoisting shots up from downtown is a team’s main method of offense, it can be a long day if the bombs are not going down. A bad shooting night can obviously happen, especially on the road away from the comforts and familiarity of your home gym. Teams rarely get to the free throw often when they are camping out behind the three-point arc which increases the reliance of making those 3’s.

Some good examples of teams shooting a relatively high number of 3’s and a low number of free throws are Iowa State, 14th out of 344 teams on three-point attempts, 326th on free-throw attempts. Troy is 22nd in TPA’s and 340th in FTA’s, Tennessee-Martin, 42nd and 324th, and Akron, 47th and 320th. Combined, these teams have a 3-11 ATS record. These will be teams I will avoid playing on and will be on my play against list when they are on the road.

On a side note, it is still too early to determine if moving the three-point line back a foot to 20’9” will make much of a difference. Currently there is a 1.2% reduction in the percentage of 3’s being made out of the 344 Division-1 teams, 33.2% this year compared to 34.4% last year. Teams overall are cutting back just a shade on the percentage of shots from behind the arc, 33.3% of all field goal attempts this year versus 34.4% last season.

These are some basic methods to start making a play on/against directory of teams. With so many lined teams, it is wise to have some methodologies to par your respective lists down.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority contributed this article.

Wednesday Dec.3 Betting Info

It’s been awhile since I can remember losing a wager directly to the fact a player got kicked out of a game. But that’s what happened to me and several members of the Left Coast Connection with the Hurricanes going down, otherwise a steady 2-1 day at this location. The Top Trends have been quite good for weeks now and looks at a NBA team in a great situation. The Free Play is from one confident individual and today’s Top System is sweet 22-4. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY OVER on home teams like San Jose State against the total, off a close road loss by three points or less, playing with seven or more days rest. This system has rocked at 22-4, 84.6 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Orlando Magic are 16-2 ATS off a road loss.

Free Basketball Selection -3) One member of the LLC called me today and said Air Force will blow out Northern Illinois. I told him I’d post it and let the world see if he’s right.

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The Latest NFL Turkey

Last week while families gathered for fellowship and feasts during the Thanksgiving holiday, one of the biggest turkeys the NFL has to offer roasted in the headlines.

And now Commissioner Roger Goodell has Plaxico Burress to thank for his latest PR crisis.

The embattled New York Giants receiver carried a loaded gun into a Manhattan nightclub on Friday evening and accidentally shot himself in the leg. That's right, shot himself in the leg while flashing his weapon to his entourage and having a glass of wine.

Events that transpired for Burress after "the shooting" were a trip to the emergency room, a brief stay in the New York-Presbyterian Hospital and two counts of criminal possession of a weapon charged to his name.

Monday morning, the 31-year old Michigan State alum turned himself in to the authorities and was reminded of the pair of felonies incurred. Burress posted the $100,000 bail and climbed back into his jet black, chrome-rimmed Cadillac Escalade.

If Plax is anything like his NFL receiving brethren Randy Moss, he probably paid the bail with "straight cash, homey."

Hopefully Mr. Burress is lucky enough to still have a mother around and if so I really want to believe she was there to slap him on the backside of the head and scream, "What the hell are you doin' boy!"

Seriously though, how careless do you have to be to shoot yourself in the leg? And why in the world are you carrying a gun, especially without a legal permit to do so?

Protection was his reasoning. Burress claimed he was carrying large amounts of cash and was wearing expensive jewelry that evening.

He might not be aware of this phenomenon but society has embraced a monetary credit system where instead of using dollar bills to purchase items one can satisfy an outstanding balance by providing payment with a rectangular plastic card.

But that would just be too easy and plus, Plax wouldn't have the fat stack of Benjamins to throw down when buying that case of Dom Perignon.

Okay, here's another option for Mr. Burress. Why not stay in your lavish bazillion-dollar home, stock the bar with booze and have as many friends over as you want? He might even be able to afford a DJ to spin some tunes. Create that club scene in the west wing sports room that is rarely used and make it rain right there on the pool table.

And if he is really that worried about being attacked while out in public, just hire a bunch of body guards to protect you who are actually licensed to carry guns. It is that simple. Look normal, blend in and don't try to draw attention to yourself. But wait I almost forgot, he is an NFL wide receiver and that egocentric attitude is embedded into his genes.

New York's Mayor Bloomberg wants Burress prosecuted to the fullest extent, seven years behind bars. Unless this hotshot lawyer he's hired can turn water into wine, Plax could looking at the minimum of three and a half years in the slammer.

He caught the game winning touchdown in the Super Bowl to defeat the undefeated Patriots. The Giants rewarded him with a 35 million dollar contract extension with 11 million coming as a signing bonus. But you can bet Burress will be looking for another team to play for next season. This isn't the first "Plaxico being Plaxico" incident this season and head coach Tom Coughlin is a disciplinarian that has most likely reached his limit. The Giants have packed it in on Plax after Dr. Scott Rodeo, a team physician, examined Burress and told them the gunshot wound would sideline the 31-year-old player for 4-6 weeks.

Jerry Jones could be looking for his number right now.

But if Burress does somehow escape the long arm of the law, you know the Commish will be there to thwart his immediate return to the league. Plaxico isn't putting up Pacman Jones numbers but he has quickly climbed to second on Goodell's most wanted list.

Scott Cooley free lance writer shares his thoughts here at 3Daily Winners.

A Terrific Tuesday from 3Daily Winners

I had a feeling we would come back and missed by two points in the Monday night game of going 3-0. Great to see our Top System play deliver and we have another beauty in college hoops tonight at 23-5 against the spread. The LLC majority was correct last night on Houston and has unanimous selection tonight. The Top Trend peeks in on a particular NBA team in an awful situation. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON a team like Minnesota , a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a bad defensive team like Virginia (78 or more PPG), after scoring 85 points or more in last outing. This singular system is 23-5 ATS, 82.1 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Chicago Bulls are 2-14 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus the Miami Hurricanes as unanimous selection (8-0) in college hoops tonight.

ACC/Big Ten Challenge

The Big Ten jetted to 1-0 lead with Wisconsin taking down Virginia Tech 74-72 yesterday and based on the previous results of this event, they better relish it while they can. Tonight five more games will be played, with Duke at Purdue being the showcase contest. If and it is a really big if, the Big Ten wants a realistic chance to finally win The Challenge, they have to hold serve as home favorites tonight, being favored in three of the five games on their home court. All lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Ohio State at Miami-FL (-8) ESPN 7:00E

The Hurricanes are in the group of teams right behind North Carolina and Duke, trying to make noise this season in the ACC. Miami is 4-1 (2-1 ATS), with only loss coming to second-ranked Connecticut 76-63. Guard Jack McClinton is the team’s leading scorer and catalyst from a team that welcomed back four starters and is 11-1 ATS in non-conference action.

Ohio State (3-0, 2-1 ATS) held Samford to 22 points, not for the half, but for the game. They will be tested more severely today, against what might be the best perimeter shooting team in the ACC. The Buckeyes have had to rebuild for the second straight season and have wing David Lighty and F Evan Turner to fall back on. Ohio State has another very good freshman class; however this will be their first road adventure, though in the past this has not been a problem with 14-5 ATS mark after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite.

Ohio State is 2-5 in this challenge and Miami 0-2, but the edge has to go veteran Canes at home with 10-2 ATS record after playing a home game.

Iowa at Boston College (-8) ESPNU 7:00E

Boston College (4-2, 4-1 ATS) fell behind Purdue by 19-points in New York and rallied to within seven before losing. They came from behind to beat UAB in the NIT third place game 83-77 as three-point underdogs. G Tyrese Rice is what makes these Eagles fly and B.C. is 14-4 ATS after three consecutive non-conference games.

Second year coach Frank Lickliter has thrown three freshman into the fray, seeing this as his future and thus far they have responded well with 6-1 (3-1 ATS) record, including 65-63 upset of Kansas State, despite shooting 36.4 percent. Sophomore point guard Jeff Peterson has been an early stabilizer and the Hawkeyes have shot the ball well early at 49.8 percent. Iowa doesn’t appear to be in a favorable situation, but could cover the number if they play physical with Rice like St. Louis did in holding him to six points.

Iowa, like most Big Ten teams has losing record in this event at 2-5 and Boston College is 0-2 in their previous tries.

Clemson at Illinois (-2) ESPN2 7:30E

Coach Bruce Weber's Fighting Illini take a 6-0 (3-1) record into ACC/Big Ten Challenge battle with fellow unbeaten Clemson (7-0, 2-3 ATS). Illinois has been a surprise, vanquishing Vanderbilt on the road and beating Kent State and Tulsa in San Padre Tournament. Contributions are coming from all top seven players, but the big improvement has come from PG Chester Frazier, who has astonishing 42-to-9 assist-to-turnover ratio. Illinois had one of the best home court edges for years but is only 4-12 ATS since the beginning of last season.

Clemson is a sparking 7-2 in this conference challenge and has returned seven of top 10 players from NCAA Tournament team. K.C. Rivers makes this team flow and Raymond Sykes has brought the energy to the Tigers, with Trevor Booker being a force inside. Clemson is 6-15 ATS after playing a road game over the last three seasons.

This is one of the swing games the ACC has invariably won in this Challenge and how Illinois handles the Clemson pressure defense will directly relate to the outcome.

Duke at Purdue (-2) ESPN 9:00E

Duke (7-0, 4-3 ATS) has a perfect 9-0 record in this battle between well-known conferences and they face an engaging test. The Blue Devils are still perimeter oriented, with any number of players capable of beating opponent off the dribble taking the ball to the rim. Duke is at its best when the leading scorer is to be determined in a game, whether it is Kyle Singler, Lance Thomas or Gerald Henderson. The Dukies are 14-7 after a blowout win by 20 points or more.

Purdue (5-1, 3-2 ATS) is a mere 2-5 in The Challenge, with both wins coming at home. The Boilermakers are coming off disappointing loss to Oklahoma in the NIT final, losing in overtime 87-82, in a game they led almost from start to finish. E’Twaun Moore and Robbie Hummel are the stars of Purdue; nevertheless this is a solid basketball team that plays very good defense and has answers on the offensive end. The Boilers have won 13 in a row at Mackey Arena (10-3 ATS) and are 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick over the last three seasons.

Duke has to be considered dangerous in this position, yet Purdue is angry off a loss and rabid crowd could make it challenging on the Blue Devils.

Virginia at Minnesota (-7) ESPN2 9:30E

The first full night off ACC/Big Ten action concludes at The Barn in Minnesota. The Golden Gophers (6-0, 2-2 ATS) are a youthful bunch, having lost top three scorers from a year ago. Coach Tubby Smith made up a schedule of home games versus beatable opponents, with this being one of the more engaging encounters. Minnesota has had their share of early season injuries in the frontcourt, leaving PG Al Nolen to soldier the load. Coach Smith hopes good shooting fortune continues, being 10-0 ATS after a game where they made 60 percent of their shots or better.

Virginia (3-2, 1-1 ATS) has been sluggish to start a new campaign, due to lack of defense. Teams are shooting 47.4 percent against the Cavaliers, as coach Dave Leitao continues to tinker with his lineup, using five different combinations in five games. Hard to determine what Virginia will do off it worst performance in loss to Liberty and best effort in narrow defeat to Syracuse 73-70 as 16-point underdogs. After years of being a laughable road team (34-57 ATS as road underdogs), Virginia is 11-6 against the spread the last few seasons.

With two inexperienced squads, count this as another swing game.

Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror in the NFL

Go ahead, I dare you to guess what the Denver Broncos season ending record will be, let alone how they will perform over the next four weeks against the spread. The 2008 Broncos seem to be a mix of Britney, Lindsey, and Paris all wrapped into one. A closer look at the team is more confounding than Mike Shanahan having a darkly tanned face in December living in Rocky Mountain country.

Denver is in first place in the AFC West, which is akin to Arizona being in the top spot in the other West division. The list of division contenders is null and void. This would take more research time than presently available, but I’m quite comfortable in saying it’s been awhile since a division leader has failed to cover a spread AT HOME (0-6, same as Detroit) this late in the season. All the more incredible when you consider those six opponents are 33-38 on the season. Of equal or possibly greater lunacy, Denver has a seven game spread losing streak this season, this is not something normally associated with good teams headed for the playoffs, no matter the division. Quarterback Jay Cutler’s up and down efforts seem to match the Broncos play and so does the sometimes brilliant and indifferent gameplans Shanahan puts together. For wagering purposes, M.C. Hammer has the best advice, “Can’t touch this”.

The San Diego Chargers are more done than bacon left in the microwave too long. The reasons are varied, but here are the nuts and bolts (slight play on words). General Manager A.J. Smith wanted to be in charge. He’s done a good job in assembling a team presumably destined for the Super Bowl. Along the way, Smith also wanted to play coach and he and Marty Shottenheimer couldn’t work together, thus he made Norv Turner, the architect of the offense, his head coach. Problem is this team was built to play Marty-ball, tough, physical and aggressive. Turner who would best described as nice guy; he doesn’t fit the A-personality type that many teams need. The Chargers have turned into a soft, finesse-styled squad under Turner and it’s no coincidence it would appear this is why they can’t close out games. Hard decisions for GM Smith in the off-season, since L.T. seems to have reached his peak and this team needs a new direction.
Just asking, did you think the Detroit Lions thought maybe their Thanksgiving game was supposed to be two-hand touch instead of tackle football?

The Indianapolis Colts have won five in a row, by a grand total of 20 points, explaining why they have covered twice in that stretch. I thought playing against the Colts was the second best bet on the board this past week, since they don’t have the look of a team that can cover many numbers. Injuries are a big reason, missing center Jeff Saturday and safety Bob Sanders for too many games. I’d like to throw out the idea that all the fast, light (weight-wise) players Tony Dungy prefers, breakdown quicker being undersized, having given or taken too many hits. Call it an observation, not an indictment and worth consideration.

There is no doubt the best team in the NFL is the New York football Giants and I’m amazed at one subtle difference that has happened over the last few years. Coach Tom Coughlin, now in his fifth season, had a locker room filled with outspoken players and wild antics his first three years. Jeremy Shockey, Michael Strahan and Tiki Barber were all worth a few quotes each week and not always to the positive of the team. As the leaders, they didn’t like his rules and Coughlin always ended up defending many of his actions both on an off the field. Is it a coincidence, after Barber leaves, Strahan quiets down and Shockey gets injured and the Giants roll to Super Bowl win? Is it more striking that even with Plaxico Burress doing everything to be a distraction, a group of committed football players are more like their coach and are seemingly immune to distraction? Think about this, in a different style of play; are the Giants any less dominant than New England was a year ago? Since losing to Cleveland on Monday night, they are 7-0 SU and ATS. The G-Men are very much like the Patriots teams of 2003-06, they just win games and cover spreads, not getting pinned with unrealistic spreads from oddsmakers.

Aaron Rodgers has been a pretty solid first year quarterback, with “first year” being the operative two words. He’s become more inconsistent as the season progressed and has shown the lack of patience in crunch time, like throwing the off-balance 30-yard interception into triple coverage in Carolina loss.

Matt Cassel will still likely make a lot of money in the free agent market, but he should come with –buyer beware- tags as was shown in Pittsburgh losses. He’s made great strides since being thrown into the fire with Tom Brady’s injury; however the Steelers showed the world, Cassel still has work to do.

Should Mike Singletary be the next coach of San Francisco? He still has four games to go to prove himself, however no questioning the visible difference in how the 49ers are playing. Singletary knows what he wants and will not settle for less and that attitude is showing in how the Niners are playing, being 3-1 ATS.

Quick Hits – Teams that commit five or more turnovers are 7-2 ATS in next game this season. The four NFC South teams are matched against each other this week. Strongly contemplate the home teams, who are 21-2 and 16-6-1 ATS this season. How bad are home underdog bets? In the last six weeks they are 6-19-1 ATS with only TWO outright upsets.

NBA December Betting Knowledge

I don’t know how many NBA sports bettors ever think about the differences in the time of the season and what influence, if any, it might have on which team will cover a point spread or what games in what situations might go Over or Under the lined total? Is this a valid angle to look at?

Living in Las Vegas and having gambled in all capacities for more years than I care to remember (those cocktail waitresses coming around all the time playing you with free drinks might have something to do with my memory insufficiencies), I’ve seen all types of beliefs, superstitions, methodologies, mantras, etc. of people who sit in the sports book, in front of slots and video poker machines, and at the card and dice tables.

Standing at the rail of the craps table, or more likely leaning on it, I’ve watched people increase their wager tenfold because somebody has thrown three naturals in a row, 7 or 11, on the come out roll. Their logic is he’s hot and he will roll another 7 or 11 winner giving them enough money to pay the cover charge to the casino’s super nightclub with a party being hosted by Corey Feldman. They don’t realize, or forget (those cocktail waitresses fault again?) that every roll of the dice is an independent event with prior results having no effect on the upcoming roll.


I think the phrase “I’m due”, “he’s due,”, “they’re due”, or for heaven’s sake, “somebody is due”! is one of the most frequently-uttered axioms in gambling. “I’m down $400 in blackjack, I’m due to win”. Well, maybe if you would learn to double-down when you have a total of ten and the dealer has a four showing, you wouldn’t be losing so badly. It is also one of the most fruitless expressions there is not just in gambling, but in life. I went through six years of college thinking I was due for an “A” in a class, any class. It finally happened in Bowling 101. I was so ecstatic until I found out that anybody who showed up for every class got a perfect grade. I guess I was somewhat ignorant thinking my 119 average on the lanes would achieve such a high grade.


It is not just a superstition or a wild belief that certain times of the season have certain tendencies. Just like at the beginning of a new baseball season, the first 30 days has some strong trends as many teams are getting used to working with new teammates on both offense and defense. There are always a few new coaches or changes in systems that teams have to become fluid with. December has its own certain trends that occur that not many people are aware of. These aren’t all 60%+ winning systems. They are more like tendencies to give you an edge, which in betting the NBA, it is very important to have any edge you can get.


Getting an edge is easy for December games. Since the beginning of the 2004 season during the month of December, away dogs have cashed a ticket 54.1% of the time. Except for the last couple of weeks of the season in April, December is the only month that has greater than a 50.5% winning rate for road dogs. That is as basic as you can get. Does this mean you should blindly bet on away dogs in December? In my opinion it doesn’t, but it does make me look at road dogs first before considering a home favorite. It’s nice to start capping a game with a 4.1% edge.


A situation that has averaged about nine occurrences a season but is worth looking for due to such a high winning percentage is: Since the 2002 season, a team off of a road win of 20 points or more has a 31-15 ATS record in December, 67.4%. There is only one other month with even a winning record in this situation, 28-22 in the month of March. The linesmaker doesn’t catch up with shading the line enough this early in the season. By January he does with the result of a 16-26 ATS record for the team off the big road victory.


How about following an easy trend for December that gives you two-for-one results: winners in both the side and the total? This out of sight trend only entails playing on teams that have won two road games in a row and also playing Over the lined total in that game. In December over the past three years, you would have cashed 15 out of twenty tickets on the winning side, one push, and 17 out of 21 times on the winning total. You don’t have to be a maverick of a handicapper to make money betting that trend.



A general rule many handicappers follow is to play on teams that have lost a couple of games in a row. They believe the line will be adjusted enough so the losing team is getting some value. This isn’t the case in December games. Teams that have lost two straight games only have a losing ATS record in that third game during one month of the season. And naturally that month is December. Just as in one of our earlier examples, the line has not adjusted accordingly this early in the season.


As in most sports, revenge can be a great tool to look for when handicapping games. First, in this example, we have to exclude April where you have about two weeks left of the regular season and a lot of funny stuff can happen such as teams tanking games to achieve a good draft spot, teams with playoff spots cinched that are resting regulars, and teams looking at young players to determine their future with the squad.


So, excluding April, if you just blindly played on a team seeking revenge from a same-season defeat, you would make money in every month over the past three years except what month? Move to the head of the class (or the front of the betting line) if you said December! Playing on same-season revenge-seeking teams in November, January, February, or March, means you would have a winning record of 55.5%. If you have played the NBA before, you will know that is not a bad record to hang your hat on. Maybe same-season revenge-seeking teams in December get into the holiday spirit as they only cover the point spread 45.5% of the time.


Pay attention to these December trends to help make you money. Right now, I am in the middle of a tough bowling match, but not to worry. I’m due to pick this 7-10 split up.


Jim Kruger is a noted NBA handicapper and owner of Vegas Sports Authority.

Wagering Activity for Monday Dec. 1

A most disappointing 0-3 day here at 3Daily Winners, fortunately they are far and few between. We’ll be out to rebound back, following what has been incredible angle on Monday night football. The LLC has a good majority of bettors backing one side in tonight’s football contest. Our Top System might just bust loose with an 84.6 percent totals play in the NBA. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY OVER on road teams like the Miami Heat where the total is greater than or equal to 210 after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent after scoring 105 points or more. This system is 22-4, 84.6 percent, including 2-0 this season.

Free Football Trend -2) Monday Night football games are 12-1 OVER this season.

Free Football Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus has Houston as the play with 63.6 percent wagering on them tonight.

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First Monday Night Home Game for Texans

In the first Monday night game ever at Reliant Stadium, Houston will go for its third straight win against Jacksonville on its home turf. While both of these teams appear headed home in January, recent get-togethers between these two have been interesting.

Case in point: The Jaguars won the earlier meeting in Week 3 on a 37-yard field goal by Josh Scobee in overtime to prevail, 30-27, failing to cover the 6.5-point spread on Sept.28. Kris Brown tied the game up on a 47-yarder with a second left, but consecutive David Garrard passes to Matt and Greg Jones, no relation, in the extra stanza set up the game-winning field goal. Matt Schaub was brilliant that day with 307 passing yards and three touchdowns in the losing cause.

The loss of Schaub hurt any chances the Texans even had of heading to the postseason and his replacement, Sage Rosenfels, has been subpar. Houston finally won without Schaub, beating Cleveland 16-6 behind a breakout game from a sagging defense (three interceptions, including two of Brady Quinn). This was just the Texans second road win and cover in 13 games.

The emergence of rookie running back Steve Slaton has been one of many rookie tailbacks who have stepped up in a big way in 2008 and his 774 yards and six touchdowns are proof of how important he has been. Slaton has also caught 32 passes and hasn’t fumbled.

Like Slaton, wideout Andre Johnson has also emerged after a slow September. Since the beginning of October, Johnson has caught 76 passes for 892 yards and three touchdowns. Playing against Jacksonville is a real boost of confidence for Houston, who is 7-6 and 10-3 ATS versus the Jags.

Beside San Diego, there hasn’t been a bigger disappointment than Jacksonville, which sits at 4-7 with 3-8 against the spread record. Losses to Cleveland, Cincinnati and Tennessee really did the team in and rumblings about head coach Jack Del Rio’s job security have surfaced again.

Garrard has failed to continue the success and progression from a year ago and has only nine touchdown passes through 11 games. The lack of production from Garrard has not been contagious to Maurice Jones-Drew, who leads the team with 11 touchdowns. With Jones-Drew reaping all the fruit, the cupboard has been bare for fellow running back Fred Taylor, who has yet to score and is averaging a career-low 3.6 yards per carry.

Bookmaker.com has Houston as a three-point favorite, with a total of 48. This will be only the third time the Texans have been favored in this series in 13 meetings, thou they were an expansion team early on. With Monday night games on 12-1 OVER roll this season, this one is worth a look also. The Jaguars are 8-1 OVER as a road underdog over the last two seasons and the Texans are amazing 10-0 OVER versus AFC South opponents over the same time span.

Jacksonville covers if they protect Garrard, who has been sacked 11 times the last two weeks. The patchwork offensive line is springing more leaks than a White House classified report. The Houston run defense is beatable, meaning Jones-Drew and friends can have enough moments to matter. The passing game has become real predictable. Any empty backfield means slant to Matt Jones or seam route to Mercedes Lewis, with bailout to Jones-Drew. Throw down the field and maybe the Jags improve to 13-3-1 ATS as division road underdogs.

Houston covers if they keep finding Johnson, since they have won four of the six games he has 100 yards or more receiving. His presence has opened up Kevin Walter, who has seven touchdowns this season. Their running backs are beat up; however spot production is necessary against pedestrian Jaguars defense. The defense forced five turnovers last week, unlikely to happen again, but the same aggressive attitude could take the Texans to 12-5 ATS hosting division rivals.

This week’s Monday night system is to play against any Monday night road underdog that has failed to cover the spread in consecutive games. This system is 20-9 ATS, 68.9 percent.