NHL Hybrid

I would not classify myself as a hockey fan. Sure, I know which teams are good and who the star players are, but beyond that all of the Czechoslovakian and Russian names without vowels create a state of confusion in my brain.

But in honor of the NHL’s 57th All-Star game this weekend (Sunday at 6 PM ET on Versus if anyone cares), I think I’ve schemed a solution to resurrect hockey as a major sport. And let me go ahead and shed my apologies to those readers who are die-hard puck fans and are appalled even at the notion of altering the game.

Before I unleash my earth-shattering concept to change the face of hockey, I want to let you know where this epiphany came from. It stemmed from my disbelief in some of the recent transpirations involving player suspensions and a proposed fighting ban.

Three weeks ago I got up on my soapbox and preached about why former Dallas Stars forward Sean Avery deserved a second chance. Two meaningless words cost this hockey player a job and perhaps his future in the sport. I argued, and continue to do so, that athletes in other sports have committed far greater crimes and received far less in terms of punishment.

On January 7, Senators right wing Jarkko Ruutu was handed a two-game suspension for biting the finger of another player while in an altercation. Now this one had me rolling on the ground in tears.

Andrew Peters, who serves as the enforcer for the Buffalo Sabres, was the victim of this chomping and he claimed that “it’s not part of the game of hockey” and “not acceptable at any level.”

This is coming from a guy who batters, bruises and boxes other men for a living.

I don’t know what fighting parameters Peters grew up with but playground rules are: Anything goes except a kick or punch to where the sun doesn’t shine. Biting, scratching, hair-pulling, eye-gouging, tittie-twisters, Indian sunburns and wet willies are all fair game. But this 6-4, 247-pound beast of a man, who is supposedly the team goon, is calling mamma because he got bit on the thumb.

The head coach of his own team, Lindy Ruff, shared my sentiment, "I find it a little humorous to tell you the truth. It makes it something good to talk about. Games need a little spice and we get a little spice."

The latest news to hit the frozen floor this week reports that the NHL’s Director of Operations plans to discuss with the league’s 30 general managers the possibility of placing a ban on fighting.

That could be the most ignorant idea I have ever encountered.

Gloves dropping on the ice and bare knuckles flailing are the only reason this sport is still attracting a fraction of fans. If people wanted to watch a boring, back-and-forth, low-scoring sporting event they can flip over to ESPN Deportes and watch soccer. Because without fighting, that is exactly what hockey would be.

This is what Toronto Maple Leafs president and general manager, Brian Burke had to say about the proposal of taking the physicality out of the game, "I vigorously oppose (a ban), so I think it will be a short discussion.”

It is very apparent the National Hockey League’s biggest fault is making a big deal out of nothing. Antics Commissioner Bettman and his posse have pulled over the last month gives the league no credibility.

Are they seriously trying to hold their players to the PGA’s code of conduct? These are hockey players and attempting to give their image a divine appearance is skewed. This sport needs some bad boys with an edge. A league full of Sydney Crosbys and Wayne Gretzkys would be like watching a PG-13 chick-flick.

So enters NHL Hybrid.

A league that would never entertain the possibility of terminating fighting but instead, promote it. Highlighting featured bouts between bruisers where at least two fights per game is guaranteed.

Essentially a sport where the only rule is there are no rules.

Okay maybe we won’t take it that far. Icing, offsides and any regulation that keeps the game in some form of uniformity can remain, but everything else goes. No penalty minutes for cross-checking, high-sticking, holding, hooking, roughing, slashing or tripping.

In fact, penalty minutes will become extinct. The penalty box will remain intact, although a bit remolded, to serve as a boxing ring inside the rink. This enlarged area with padded walls will encase the nightly boxing matches that occur after the conclusion of the first two periods. So whichever two guys are the most ticked off at each other get to go round and round until someone gets dropped.

So no penalties would equate to no power plays right…WRONG!

There will still be short-handed opportunities. Designated power plays of two minutes during certain time frames of the first and second periods will be assigned to each team. The power play assignments will be determined by a coin flip before the start of the game.

Let me try to break this down in the easiest way possible. Team A wins the coin toss and elects to take the first power play session. The first six minutes of play is standard hockey with five players and one goalie on the ice for each team. Then the next two minutes is a power play for Team A. After Team A’s allotted time expires, Team B gets their two minutes with a man advantage. The following six minutes is back to standard play, and then the last four minutes of the first period will be each team’s final power play possession. But this time Team B gets the first power play with Team A closing out the period.

The same format would be followed for the second period of the game.

The third and final period is standard play for the first 17 minutes and then in the final three minutes both of the goalies are pulled. Six on six with nobody in the net. And if the game is tied at the end of regulation, an overtime shootout immediately ensues with current rules applicable.

A helmet modification from the current issue will be mandated as well. With the physical nature expected in the new league, heavy-duty head gear with equipment covering the entire face and neck will be enforced.

NHL Hybrid is a league for people like Happy Gilmore and Reggie Dunlop. It will offer fans higher scoring contests, more excitement (fighting) and a change from the standard game that has produced the lowest ratings and attendance figures in years.


These are the thoughts of freelance write Scott Cooley.

Back up the truck Saturday, time to dig up Winners

Its official, our hot streak is over with a 1-3 Friday. Time to end this nonsense and get back on the winning ride. Mike of the LLC returns to share his wisdom in college hoops and he is hitting over 63 percent the last 10 days betting the collegiate game. He has more courage than I about the Fighting Irish. The prefect Trend is back and let’s hope Wright State is the right choice. Though DePaul is abysmal, the 28-6 system does make sense. Good Luck.

When I look at these big CBB boards, there are certain teams which I can never figure out and for all intents and purposes no longer play them either way, because I’m seldom correct. It’s mostly because of the coach. My teams are Charlotte, Miami-O and Drexel. If you have any such teams share your thoughts.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like Marquette, after eight or more consecutive wins and have won 80 percent or more of their games, playing a marginal losing team (40 to 49). For the not faint of heart DePaul is the play, with a system backing them that is 28-6 ATS, 82.4 percent, including 3-0 this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Wright State is 10-0 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less two straight games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Mike of the Left Coast Connection has made a strong debut here at with his college basketball bets and today likes Arkansas and Notre Dame equally as well.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Notre Dame’s Home Court Streak in Jeopardy

One week after beating Georgetown and Seton Hall, the Fighting Irish believed they were right back in the fight for title contention in the belaboring Big East. Two road losses later, Notre Dame (12-5, 5-7 ATS) has to regroup in a hurry facing a very good Connecticut club. What has undermined the Irish is a faulty road defense, allowing 77.4 points a game. Though the competition has been weaker, they have given up just 63.4 PPG on the home hardwood and are 20-11 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread.

Connecticut (17-1, 7-7 ATS) is one of the most experienced teams in a veteran league. All five starters are juniors or seniors, as is the top reserve in both the backcourt and the frontcourt. Of the eight-man rotation, freshman guard Kemba Walker is the only player seeing any significant minutes. That’s not to say the Huskies are bullet-proof, they have made plenty of miscues in different contests, be it guards A.J. Price, Jerome Dyson or center Hasheem Thabeet. The difference this year, when it counts late in games, they make the plays which have led to victories. With Notre Dame’s defense a question, UConn could succeed having 80-45 ATS mark when they make 47 to 53 percent of their shots in a game.

UConn is the highest-ranked opponent to visit South Bend in more than 10 years as the Irish look to extend the nation’s longest home winning streak to 47 games. Coach Mike Brey of Notre Dame received free bulletin board material courtesy of the Huskies. Connecticut is the only team in the country to have five wins over Top 25 teams and goes for number six Saturday. "It's going to feel good to break (Notre Dame's) home winning streak," forward Jeff Adrien said last Sunday Sunday. "It's a tough place to play, but we can do it."

Bookmaker.com has Notre Dame as a one-point underdog, with this being only the fifth ranked opponent the Irish have facing during this length stretch and only two top 10 teams.

College Basketball Bettor’s Weekend Outlook

Another exceptional weekend card of college hoops is on tap for Saturday and Sunday. One of the more intriguing matchups features the battle of Tennessee, with Memphis heading to Knoxville. Elsewhere, Duke has a date with Wake Forest and can not overlook Maryland who has frequently given them trouble. UCLA goes the Apple State sweep in Seattle, where they haven’t won in four years. A Colonial Conference clash has George Mason and Virginia Commonwealth battling for league supremacy. On Sunday, Florida tries to regain composure off incredible loss and Michigan State and Ohio State look to get back on winning track. Check Bookmaker.com for the last numbers on these contests.

Maryland at Duke 12:00ET, ESPN

Maryland was the last D-1 team to play a true road game and they will be making visit number three heading to Durham to play Duke. Guard Greivis Vasquez earlier heard some boos at home games over his shot selection (misses of course) and if the volatile Venezuelan thought that was uncalled for, what he has facing him against the Blue Devils fans might send him into a tizzy. Sophomore guard Adrian Bowie has provided a spark and the Terps will need his buckets to continue being 12-3 ATS they attempt 63 to 69 shots in what show be fast-paced encounter.

With Wake Forest on deck, Duke (17-1, 9-7 ATS) doesn’t want a letdown before that huge encounter. The Blue Devils are in somewhat unfamiliar territory in spite of stellar campaign.

North Carolina hogged all the earlier headlines and the play of Clemson and the Demon Deacons have made it easy for Coach K to complain about his team receiving no love. Duke still isn’t shooting as well behind the arch as in past season; however their defense is much improved in that area and they are 14-3 ATS when their opponents make 23 to 30 percent of their three-pointers in a game.

Maryland (13-5, 6-5-1 ATS) has played five games in a row that have been decided by seven or fewer points and is 4-0-1 ATS with three or more days rest. Duke is 7-4 at Cameron Indoor against Maryland, though just 5-5-1 ATS.

To read more click here.

Friday's NBA Betting Answers (Hopefully)

I had my doubts about yesterday’s system being a winner, with Weber State likely to be bored playing sad-sack Sacramento State and I was correct unfortunately. Hopefully we can turn this around and pound out a few more winners tonight. Actually today’s best NBA System yields two plays out of the same system, which is 83.9 percent. The Pistons are known for defense and Friday’s Top Trend backs that belief up. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, are a marginal losing team (40 to 49 percent) playing a bad team with a win percentage in the 25 to 40 percent range. This system is scintillating 26-5 ATS (2-0 this year) and has two plays. This system calls to go against both Chicago and New York Friday night.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Detroit Pistons are 12-1 ATS after allowing 85 points or less two straight games over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) No college plays from Mike, but I've been on a streak here and take Cleveland minus the points.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Hit the Road - Betting the NBA

NBA road trips have their own dynamics. A lot of beliefs on the effect of road trips, be they correct or incorrect, are incorporated into people’s handicapping of NBA games. Let’s look at the facts.

We’ll start with the basics. Since the start of the 2004 season, road teams overall win straight-up 40.3% of the time covering the spread in 51.5% of those games. If the road team is favored over the home squad, they have won outright almost two-thirds of the games, 66.0% while beating the linesmaker’s number at a 52.7% clip. Road underdogs don’t do as well, a 29.5% SU mark and 51.2% ATS. The Over/Under records had no significance.

In handicapping a sport so influenced by factors beyond the fundamental capabilities of the teams, I try to find situations that have occurred historically that will give me an advantage on knowing where to put my money. Let’s see if we can find some situations that give us a betting edge.

We’ll take our road team in any away game when it is laying points and add the qualifier of it playing an away game without having any rest, a back-to-back. These games the past three seasons are going Under the total 56.1% of the time. While this is not a spot where I would blindly bet the Under, it does make me examine very closely when I am considering playing the Over on a road favorite.

An even stronger situation for our team favored in a game on the road is when they have at least one day of rest before their game and the opponent doesn’t have any rest. In this case, our roadies have a 59.3% record against the point spread tally.

There is the often-heard phrase that a team wants to win all of their home games and win half of their road games. So when a team is on a four-game road trip and has lost their first two games, following this premise, this team would be one to bet on in game three of their trek. That’s not the case as it is almost an exact 50-50 scenario betting on the side of our visitor. However, it is a good spot for the Under in that third game coming in 58% of the time. If that third game is against a conference foe, the Under improves to 62.2%. Or, a real super spot for the UNDER, 87.5%, since 2001, is when that visiting team is favored in that third game.

You would think that a team who is on a four-game road trip would really bear down and be focused in the fourth game if they lost the first three games. That is the case over the past three years with the team trying to avoid the road goose egg covering 57.6% of that final game before heading home. A slightly better wager in this situation is on the Under with it being profitable 59.4% of the time.

The Under also comes through quite well at a 77.8% frequency in the last game of a four-game trip if our team won the opening match on the road but then dropped the next two. I had to go back ten years to get even more than a ten-game sample, but in this situation if our road team is favored they are 10-2 ATS.

One handicapping method some people use is to play on a team when they are playing the rubber match of a road trip to finish either with a winning trip or a losing one. You get a small advantage in the last game of a five game road trip betting on a team that has split their previous four games, 54.6%. The Under happens 54.5% of the time.

In three game road trips, teams that have split the past two games, do cover the point spread 55.5% of the time. If they are a favorite in the final game of that short trip, the visitor improves slightly to a winning pace of 59.2%. The best place to make money in this deciding road match, a 65% winner, is to play the Under if the visiting team has a winning percentage of over 60% of their games season to date.

I wondered how teams that are going on a road trip do if the first game they are playing is without any rest. Going back five years with teams starting a three-game road trip without a day of rest, it was a negative situation at 37-55 ATS, only covering the number 40.2% of the time. The O/U record is almost exactly the same, 37-57, 39.4%. If the road team lost their last home game before starting out on the road, betting against the visitor remains closely the same, but putting money on the Under improves to a 69.1% winner.

Interestingly enough, adding a game to the trip where teams are starting a four-game swing from home with the first game being played without any rest shows the visiting team slightly covering more games than not. However, the Under is still a good wager paying off 63% of the time. It is quite rare for a team to start a road trip longer than four games to play the first game with zero rest.

The first game of a road trip can have significance. On the initial match of a four-game trip, if a traveling team has a losing record, winning less than 50% of their games, but they won their last game before starting the journey, the Under occurs at a rate of 64.3%. Increase the longevity of the trip by one game and you still have almost exactly the same results, 65.1%. If you decrease the trip by one game to three-games or move it up to six contests long, there is no advantage at all.

Let’s change one parameter of the previous situation with that below .500 team on their first road game out of four consecutive away. Instead of winning their final home game before starting out on the road, if our team lost that contest, they cover the spread at a very healthy 65.6% rate since the 2000 season, 40-21. After a home loss, the team is motivated to avoid starting a road trip on a losing note.

We’ve looked at the first games of longer road trips. Shorter road trips also give us some good spots. In the first game of a quick two-game trip before returning home, teams that have a bad record winning less than 40% of their games do quite well against the spread, 61%, if they won their previous game at home. If you take the opposite of those two qualifiers, a good team winning more than 60% of their games but who lost their last home game, and is also in the first of a two-game road swing, the Under is the most profitable place to put your money, 77.3%.

Examining the initial game of a three-game segment away from home with no additional qualifiers, there was not an advantage large enough worth noting. However, if you make the visitor a favorite over the home team in that first contest, they are winning SU 71.4% of the games, 55-22, while covering 64.5% of the games. The Over is a winner in 57.9% of these contests. If the visiting squad is getting points instead of laying them, the Under comes up at a 56.7% frequency.

While we have only scratched the surface on edges present in road trips, we did find some advantages worth looking for. To summarize some of these:


Away Favorite without rest: 56.1% Under advantage

Away Favorite with rest vs. opponent without rest: 59.3% ATS advantage

Game 3 of 4-game road trip & visitor lost previous 2 games: 58.0% Under advantage

Same as directly above with it being a conference game: 62.2% Under advantage

Rubber match of 3-game road trip and Away Favorite: 59.2% ATS advantage

First game of a road trip and game is being played with zero rest: Play the Under

First game of a 4 to 5 game road trip by a team with a losing record: Play the Under

First game of a 3-game road trip and Away Favorite: 64.5% ATS advantage

First game of a 3-game road trip and Away Favorite: 57.9% Over advantage

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority makes writing contribution.

Geared up for Thursday Wagering Action

I want to apologize for not posting Mike’s pick yesterday, I just realized it, and he was on Villanova. I’m right in the middle of doing a lot of writing and research for the Super Bowl and keeping up regular duties and just forgot. I won’t count that as a win, because no way to prove it, thus a 0-2 Hump Day. Hopefully I can deliver better winners today and have a Top Trend that is also in my writeup about tonight huge Celtics and Magic clash. The Best System is 83.9 percent in college basketball and involves one rather unknown team and another that is and should be unknown. I’ve already received Mike’s Best Bet and it is posted. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road favorites of 10 or more points like Weber State who are an average offensive team (67-74 points per game), against a horrible offensive team like Sacramento State that averages 58.6 PPG, after allowing 55 points or less. Motivation is the only unknown for Weber State taking on a 1-18 team; however the system itself has enjoyed exceptional results at 26-5 ATS, 83.9 percent since Bryant Gumbel left the Today Show. (1997)

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Orlando Magic are 22-3 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Mike of the Left Coast Connection continues to thrive in college basketball betting and has the Washington Huskies as his top selection.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Eastern Conference Conflict

Its one game out of 82 during the regular season and its true ramifications won’t be felt until later, if at all. Nevertheless, for the Orlando Magic, their goal is to make this a magical night and defeat the reigning NBA champion Boston Celtics. Orlando already has the best record in the Eastern Conference (a half a game over Cleveland) and believes they have closed the gap from a year ago and are true competitors to be conference champions.

Jameer Nelson believes the Magic are the equal or extremely close of being on par with the Celtics. “They’re a great team. We’re a good team,” said Nelson. “We’re trying to get to where they are.” It’s hard to argue with Nelson on his point studying the numbers.

If you discount New York, who is learning to play Mike D’Antoni basketball, Orlando is second in the East in points scored at 102.3 and Boston is third at 100.9. The Celtics do shoot at a higher percentage (48.1 vs 46.1), but a large part of that is a matter of preference, as the Magic make over 10 three-points a game, with approximately one-third of their shots beyond the arc. Boston runs a more conventional offense in attempting nine fewer long shots a contest.

Orlando also hopes to learn what a few others believe. Boston players are well-known in the league for talking more garbage then just about anybody. If opponents let this “smack” talk get to them, game over for Kevin Garnett and the rest of the yappers. However, if a team can maintain its poise and just play with the Celtics, the belief now is they tend to become quieter and in turn less intimidating.

For NBA bettors, there is a plethora of great angles from which to choose, it looks like a $5.99 all-you-can-eat buffet at the Trends table. Boston jumped on Miami early last night and coasted to 98-83 win as 5.5-point favorites. The C’s are 24-11 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days and amazing 71-42 ATS in road contests period, over the last three seasons. Doc Rivers has sold his club on playing one game at a time (besides how else would you do it) and they are 18-8 ATS when playing against top-level teams with a win percentage of 70 percent or higher since last season. When facing mad bombers like the Orlando, few problems, with 37-22 ATS record versus 3-point shooting teams making 36 percent of their attempts.

Orlando this season can play the “what ever you can do, we can do better” game. The Magic are back home after sweeping a four game road trip with four covers and are the best road squad in the NBA. They are 8-1 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog and are 14-4 ATS after three or more consecutive wins this season. The largest defeat Dwight Howard’s team has suffered was at the hands of Boston 107-88 as 8.5-point road underdogs and they are 22-3 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent. Though Orlando is one spot behind Boston in field goal percentage defense at third, the Magic are perfect 12-0 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 99 or more points per game this season.

Bookmaker.com has Orlando as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 192.5. The Magic may have two psychological edges in this meeting in Central Florida. The first is Jameer Nelson missed the Dec.1 meeting and is back playing the best basketball of his NBA career and the Magic have won six in a row at home over the Celtics (5-1 ATS) giving them a further boost of confidence. The teams are a combined 21-13-1 UNDER in home/road dichotomy, with Boston 11-2 UNDER after four straight wins by 10 points or more and the Orlando 15-5 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more four straight outings.

Magic coach Stan Van Gundy is trying to keep this one game in perspective. “I’ve said all along, and I honestly think it’s true: If they’ll give us two wins for the Boston game, then I’ll make it bigger than the other games,” Van Gundy said. “Otherwise, it’s not.”

While the coach may feel this way, not all of his players are buying what the coach is selling. “It means a lot,” Magic forward Rashard Lewis said. “Obviously, Eastern Conference game, one of the best teams in the conference, last year’s champion. We’re at a point where we want to get home-court advantage throughout the whole playoffs, so this game means a lot. At the end of the season, it’s going to come down to games like this.”

No matter what, this is the opener on TNT NBA Thursday starting at 8 Eastern and it should be compelling.

Today's Top Wagering Plays

An extremely rare losing day at 1-2 still leaves up looking awfully sweet at 24-12-1 and we have a System Play that by all appearances looks fantastic, winning 84.6 percent of the time. Today’s Top Trend is another never lost situation and is riding a Pac-10 home underdog. Our Free Play was a Winner on Tuesday and will be available later. Good Luck.

Your comments on this blog are welcome, good, bad or indifferent, just keep the language proper.

Free Basketball System-1) Play Against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like LSU, who are a solid defensive team surrendering 63 or less points against a club nearly as good on defensive team like Mississippi State (63-67 points PG allowed) after 15 or more games, after scoring 75 points or more two consecutive outings. This system has beaten the spread 22 of 26 times, with the underdog winning outright 11 times. The averaging scoring margin difference in these games has been less than a point (0.5).

Free Basketball Trend -2) In the state where the Cardinals play, the Arizona Wildcats are 10-0 ATS off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog since 1997.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Mike’s pick will be available by 5:30 Eastern.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

What’s up with the SEC in College Hoops?

For much of the 1980’s and a good part of the 1990’s, SEC basketball was a kindly distraction after the Southeastern Conference football season was completed and spring football began. Oh sure, Kentucky was always in the mix of top teams in the country, but they were a basketball school compared to the rest of the league. That’s not to say they didn’t play good basketball in the SEC, every now and again an Alabama or Vanderbilt would rise into the higher stratosphere of the Top 10 and have exceptional years and then the coach would leave for a better paying job someplace else.

Everything started to change when Nolan Richardson came to Arkansas and he led the Razorbacks to national championship in 1995. Two years later the SEC had two teams in the Final Four and Rick Pitino led Kentucky to a national title. After taking the Wildcats to the championship the following year, Pitino felt compelled (money) to test his skills in the NBA and Tubby Smith moved into the Kentucky hot seat and won the NCAA championship with Pitino’s players.

The conference transformed into a hotbed of talent, arenas were filling up and excitement was on the rise. Hot coaching prospects were brought in to compete with Kentucky and almost every year the SEC had four teams in the Sweet 16. Billy Donovan, a Pitino protégé lit a fire under Florida’s basketball, culminating with back-to-back national titles in 2006-07. So what happened?

For the second week in a row, the SEC does not have a team ranked in the Top 25 which has become a topic of discussion on college basketball telecasts and halftime shows. If you include the ESPN/USA Today Top 25, the last time this conference did have a team in the Top 25 two weeks in a row was the 1997-98 season. How can the SEC not have a ranked team is the question?

Let’s start with the computer guys, Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin. Pomeroy has KenPom.com college basketball ratings that are very sophisticated and he at least sees Kentucky at No. 20, with Florida at No. 38. Sagarin has the bigger brand name with his USA Today affiliation and he has the Wildcats 31st and the Gators 33rd.

Part of the problem with SEC is shooting. This league has Kentucky and Florida both shooting over 49 percent and South Carolina isn’t bad at 47.4 percent. However, only the Gamecocks and LSU shoot over 38 percent from beyond the arc. Skeptics will point towards the basketball numbers being similar to what happens in football, defense rules in the South.

The SEC has six teams that allow under 40 percent of shots to be made. Sounds impressive, until you realize the Big East has five teams and the ACC has an astonishing eight teams that also play stellar defense.

The truth is the SEC doesn’t even belong in the same conversation as the other two conferences just mentioned and here’s why.

Reviewing the Sagarin ratings by conference, the Southeastern has 10 teams with a schedule difficulty of 193rd or worse. Consider the ACC and the Big East has only one team each (N.C. State and Rutgers respectively) that have played a schedule worse than a 193rd and the Pac-10 team with the easiest slate is UCLA at 136th.

In addition, it’s not like the SEC has routed all these pushover opponents. Where do we start? Georgia lost to Loyola-Chic by 21 and somebody named Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Arkansas beats top Big 12 teams Oklahoma and Texas at home and shows its multiple personalities in starting 0-3 in conference along with losing to Missouri State. Ole Miss has had more then their share of injuries, yet losing to Southern Miss by 19 and by 33 at New Mexico as four point underdogs, ranks right up their with Alabama and Auburn losing to Mercer, who is a middle of the road club in the mighty Atlantic Sun Conference. Kentucky was the one who started this whole mess, losing season and home opener to VMI 111-103.

Nothing is really to be learned from studying numbers against the spread and too few conference games have been played to really make an astute judgment otherwise.

This is a league largely devoid of senior talent, with its best player’s juniors and sophomores. Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson at Kentucky, Tyler Smith at Tennessee, Nick Calathes at Florida and O.J. Ogilvy at Vanderbilt could compete with any five all-conference performers in the country, but going to the bench for almost as good second team would expose this league.

Most of the freshmen with high expectations have not shined as brightly as expected, and have been up and down, like you would expect a freshman to play.

The coaching carousel has spun, which hasn’t helped and others that have shorter service have not stepped up. South Carolina and LSU are presumed to improve with talented coaches like Darrin Horn and Trent Johnson, but guaranteed success, not likely. Patience in running thin at Auburn and Georgia, where Jeff Lebo and Dennis Felton have not met, let alone exceeded fans expectations. Coaches at Arkansas, Mississippi and even Billy Gillispie to a lesser degree at Lexington are still trying to feel comfortable.

Can the SEC improve before the NCAA tournament, without a doubt. A few wins can gel a club and they go on a tear. However, they will have to do so playing primarily each other, which could be good or like the Big Ten in football, create false pretense, which is later exposed.

Betting the SEC is a tricky proposition until we have a better read on the teams, which might not ever happen this season.

Inauguration Day Plays

A new president may mean change, but the winning keeps on going like a Lionel Richie inauguration party –All Night Long. Technically had all three correct yesterday, but officially we were 2-0, raising record to 23-10-1. We bring back the always popular perfect Trend in the NBA tonight. Have an absolutely smokin’ college basketball system that is 88 percent, holy ___! The Left Coast Connection introduces a newer member named Mike who has been on a bit of a roll in college hoops. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST good shooting underdogs like Colorado, converting 45-47.5 percent , against an average defensive club like Texas Tech (42.5-45 percent), after 15 or more games, after a game where the underdog allowed a shooting percentage of 60 percent or higher. The focus of the dog changes to playing defense and their shooting suffers in turn. You have to like a 22-3 ATS, 88 percent record right?

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Utah Jazz are 12-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) I’m going to give up my turn, despite handing out another NBA winner and defer to Mike of the LCC who likes Illinois to extract serious revenge after losing five in a row to Ohio State. Mike is 17-8 in last 25 CBB plays.

NHL Mid-Season Betting Report

With the NHL All-Star Weekend in Montreal in the coming days, thought now would be a good time to take stock of what might lie ahead in the coming months. The subjects will be varied and not necessarily in any order, but for those counting, don’t worry we’re just trying to figure out how to win a few hockey wagers.

Who are the Best Teams to Wager On?

The Boston Bruins have been arguably the biggest surprise in the NHL leading the Eastern Conference in points with 71. Boston has had the best offense in the East in scoring 164 goals and has given up the fewest goals as well. Goaltending has been a big reason with Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez splitting time. Both have loads of experience being in their mid-30’s and have been helped immensely having defensemen with speed and skill. What should concern bettors is the premium price now on the head of Boston by linemakers, despite being a league best +15.6 units. Last year the Bruins snuck into the playoffs and this is widely thought of as the maturation process, yet one has to wonder if this team doesn’t have a little Tennessee Titans in them and are not quite ready to be a major player.

San Jose, after its phenomenal 22-4 start, has come back to this solar system, though still leads the Western Conference. The Sharks are still the second best wager in the league at +12.9 units, but have been caught a few more times lately. Their seems to be little reason to believe San Jose won’t keep winning, however as former Jim Mora Sr is being introduced to a whole new generation of fans because of Coors Light commercial asking the question, “Playoffs?”, the Sharks will have to proven themselves when that time arrives. San Jose is pure money at home with 21-3 record.

What are other good home teams to play on?

Besides San Jose, Boston is solid at 17-5, but a sleeper for many is Washington who quietly has put together a very good year and leads the Southeast Division with 63 points. At home, the Capitols are 19-4 and have two wins on home ice over Boston, handing them two of their eight road defeats. Detroit at 16-5 is not a shock; problem with the Red Wings in Hockey Town is absorbing the losses. In spite of winning over 76 percent of games on home ice, they have only manufactured +5.02 units of profit being such heavy favorites. Calgary is back to playing well at home at 16-8 and leading the Northwest Division. One stunner is the Phoenix Coyotes at 15-8, being below .500 otherwise on the straight money line.

What is more important, scoring Power Play goals or stopping them?

As of this writing here are Top 5 teams in each category and their records.

Five Best Power Plays
1) Detroit 31-14
2) Philadelphia 24-21
3) San Jose 33-11
4) Boston 33-13
5) Washington 30-17

Collectively they are 151-76, +43.8 units of profit.

Five Best Penalty Killing Teams
1) Minnesota 23-22
2) N.Y. Rangers 27-20
3) Buffalo 24-22
4) Calgary 27-18
5) San Jose 33-11

This group is 134-91, +12.2 units of profit.

This is not an exact science; however the numbers bear out being able to take advantage of opponent’s mistakes is more critical to success than curing miscues at the top of each category.

Is there an edge to look for after the All-Star break?

Yes, there certainly is. Because the NHL has a heavily weighted schedule towards conference play, opportunities exist. From now until the middle of March, teams will still have games involving the other conference. After that point in time, it is almost exclusively conference action until the end of the regular season. Because of unfamiliarity, certain clubs might just have too much talent for others or just be able to create matchup problems.

The West has dominated inter-conference play with 89-71 record. Teams that have contributed the most are the Sharks are 9-1, Minnesota at 10-3 and Calgary with 6-2 mark. Columbus is very strong at 7-3 against the East and the Red Wings are 8-4.

This doesn’t mean the West has all the fun, though it is real close. Montreal has performed extremely well at 6-2 and the battling Bruins are 7-4. Staying away from the New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lighting is a good idea anyway, but it is even truer when they take on the Western Conference, with the Isles 3-8 versus the money line and Tampa Bay 4-8.

Are there any hot teams that might have uprising?

Each season is different, with no way to know specifically, however keep in mind what happened last year. Of the eight teams in position to make the postseason at the All-Star break, seven in each conference did so, showing little movement. That is not to say a team in the eighth position could not move up to fifth or higher with big second half. Pittsburgh would fit as such a team, seeded eight presently, yet only nine points out of first place in the Atlantic Division, if they can get healthy.

What we have seen in the past is “you are what you are” and if you haven’t played very well by the break, chance are you probably won’t in the latter part of the season either and are not a good wager.

The West has more teams that have the potential to break through with the worst team in the conference St. Louis, only nine points behind No.8 Minnesota.

NBA Betting Theme for this Monday

With it being Martin Luther King Day, we’ll stay with NBA theme today. Unfortunately there is no 80 percent or higher system, thus we’ll supply the next best thing at 78.6 percent against the spread which qualifies for tonight’s big Cavs-Lakers matchup. A near perfect trend appears, though against a very beat-up basketball team in the Detroit Pistons. Recent record shows 21-10-1 mark here at 3Daily Winners. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Cleveland, after five straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 42 percent or less, against opponent like the Lakers after a game where they allowed 12 or more three-point shots to be made. This unusual system is 33-9 ATS, 78.6 percent, with a 3-0 record this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Memphis Grizzlies are 1-15 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51 to 60 percent) over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) I hit my last last play here on Friday and will back the Indiana Pacers with the points.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Trotting out our Sunday Best Bets

Our streak of over a week of winning days was broken with 1-3 day; however 20-9-1 is still a very good number on our side. Even though I missed on Orlando Magic Saturday, came away awfully impressed with them winning at the Lakers and Denver in back to back games and finished four-game road trip 4-0 SU and ATS. That makes them 17-5 SU and ATS on the road and if they can secure top seed in the East, they will only have to play Boston or Cleveland in the playoffs and not both.

We have the consensus of the LCC in today’s two NFL games, both sides and totals. With so few NBA games today (huge card tomorrow), we turn to the ice to find a Top Trend. Though yesterday’s system didn’t impress me, it was a winner and we have a 85.7 percent one in college hoops today. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points, like Iowa, who are good shooting team (45-47.5 percent) against an excellent defensive team like Purdue who holds opposing teams to under 40 percent shooting. What helps set this system up is the underdog must be good ball handling team (14.5 or less turnovers per game) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-17.5 turnovers PG) with each team having played 15 or more games on the season. We used this system earlier and it was correct and now has 24-4 ATS record since 2004.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Edmonton Oilers are 13-2 against the money line on Sunday games over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selections -3) In today’s NFL championship contests, the Left Coast Connection has Arizona as the play with 61 percent and 57 percent on the Under. In the AFC, they are split on the sides between Baltimore and Pittsburgh and 54 percent on the Under.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.