Saturday Selections

Finally got taken down with 1-2 day, but still 15-5 over last 20. Everything is in CBB today starting with 81.1 percent system against No. 1. The Top Trend is reverse perfect and Kyle has his top selection loaded. Good Luck

What I thought today – I Love Bracket Buster Saturday.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against favorites of 10 or more points like Kansas, after nine or more consecutive with a win percentage of 80% or higher, playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). This system checks in at 43-10, 81.1 percent, including 6-1 this season.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Tenn-Martin is 0-12 ATS after two or more consecutive losses this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kyle has a number of plays today but his largest wager is on South Florida.

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CBB Weekend Hoops Contests

With just a week or two left in regular season action on the collegiate hardwood, the stakes are high. Televised SEC action has teams playing for conference championship or trying to work their way into NCAA field. The Big Ten will have two important tests that will separate the have’s from the have not’s, while league leaders from ACC and Big East try to keep top quality competition from moving in on their space. As a bonus, we’ll throw in at no extra charge an under the wire Bracket Buster battle with the second best team out of the Missouri Valley against the finest from the WAC. Happy wagering!

Saturday, Feb.20

Florida at Mississippi (-4.5, 146) 12:00E CBS (split)

The Gators (18-8, 11-10 ATS) are not going to win SEC East, thus the next order of business is setting wheels into motion having a resume NCAA Tournament officials will like, which as we have found out in recent years includes high caliber road wins. Florida (4-3 and 4-2 ATS as true visitors) will have three chances before the SEC tourney to boost status and they are not helping themselves having lost three of previous six contests. Improved defense and rebounding are tantamount and coach Billy Donovan has taken some of the ball-handling duties away from guard Erving Walker, after he suffered a volume of turnovers, which produced better results initially. Florida has to control pace since they are 0-9 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game.

Ole Miss (17-8, 12-8-1 ATS) is guard-oriented, basically dependant on what they can accomplish outside the paint. Led by Chris Warren, the Rebels are seeking school’s first NCAA Tournament berth since 2002, however Mississippi will probably have to win out to have chance since they have lost four of five (1-3-1 ATS). In the SEC, any win is a good win and coach Andy Kennedy does need more from forward DeAundre Cranston, as opponents are stretching defense further out, not believing Mississippi can score consistently near the basket. Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team with 60-80 win percentage over the last three seasons.

The teams have split last six in Oxford with Florida 5-1 ATS.

Illinois at Purdue (-12.5, 137) 4:00E ESPN

Considered as relevant as having an Indian for a mascot until a few years ago after three Big Ten losses in the middle of January, the Fighting Illini (17-9, 9-14-1 ATS) and the departed Chief Illiniwek have proved their not done yet. The light bulb has gone on for Demetri McCamey after a lackluster start and he’s become the team leader. Coach Bruce Webber benched McCamey and more recently Mike Davis and Brandon Paul and each has responded positively, with more assertive play on both ends of the floor, bringing Illinois into title contention, one loss behind leaders Purdue and Michigan State. The Illini lost to the Boilermakers 84-78 earlier and are 25-10 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points.

Purdue (22-3, 13-12 ATS) has also overcame a three game losing streak in Big Ten play to work their way back into virtual tie with Michigan State, winning eight straight (5-3 ATS). The Boilermakers are back to playing team basketball and their “Big Three” of Robbie Hummel, JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore, are delivering like Dominoes. Coach Matt Painter has everyone on the same page, understanding their roles and the defensive intensity has returned, along with greater precision on the offense. Purdue is 12-3 ATS in February at Mackey Arena.

The home team is a mere 7-6-1 ATS since Feb. of 2002, with road team 5-1 ATS in last six meetings.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt (-1, 155) 6:00E ESPN

Ask any SEC coach their least favorite venue in the league and the immediate answer is “Vanderbilt”. Coach John Calipari will have the same hopeless feeling, splitting two halves 60 or more feet away from his team on offense or defense. This feeling will be further intensified since the Commodores are exceptional team, in revenge mode and 13-0 (6-5 ATS) at Memorial Gymnasium. Vanderbilt (20-5, 12-10 ATS) is among the better shooting teams in the country at over 48 percent and is 26-13 ATS as a home underdog or pick.

The last time these teams met on Jan. 30, Kentucky (25-1, 13-11 ATS) built a double digit working margin and never let the Commodores in the game in 85-72 victory. The Wildcats controlled the glass with an astounding +19 rebound margin and scored in the paint when needed. Forward Patrick Patterson deserves props, no longer playing like he was at lido, becoming more aggressive scoring and rebounding. Kentucky is 8-2 ATS in authentic road games having won five of their last six contests.

These clubs are .500 SU and ATS at Nashville since 1997, thought Vanderbilt has won four in a row at home (2-2 ATS). The ‘Dores can tie Kentucky for SEC lead with an upset; however the favorite is 4-1 in previous five conflicts.

Wichita State at Utah State (-7, 126.5) 11:59E ESPN2

The Shockers (22-6, 10-11 ATS) have been an elite team all year in The Valley, with their fine 11-5 record, good for second position behind Northern Iowa. Yet coach Gregg Marshall has concerns. "I think we may have hit a wall," Marshall said, referring to his club 3-2 mark in last five games, covering just one time. Wichita State will have their hands full taking on Utah State who is 62-2 SU at home, playing at 11:00 PM local time and playing at elevation. A win here would help team regain confidence and the Shockers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 non-conference tilts.

Utah State (21-6, 14-8-1 ATS) once again sits atop the WAC at 11-2, riding an 11-game winning streak (9-2 ATS). A large part of the Aggies success under coach Stew Morrill is their ability to work the ball and take quality shots, which they are doing again this season with 48.6 percent shooting percentage. Balance is what makes this offense so reliable, with nation’s best three-point shooting (42.4%) and having at least four scorers in double figure most games. The Aggies won but didn’t cover in last outing and are 15-5-1 against the spread after ATS loss. Utah State is 14-1 and 8-4 ATS at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum this season.

Sunday, Feb. 21

Ohio State at Michigan State (-4, 135) 12:00E CBS (split)

The Big Ten Conference has taken on the appearance of one of Hugh Hefner’s girlfriends, loaded at the top. Two teams fighting to gain control of the league lead are the Buckeyes and Spartans. Ohio State (20-7, 13-14 ATS) has been like a stealth bomber, occasionally seen but seldom noticed. Coach Thad Matta compares this group to the year before Greg Oden and company arrived to advance be NCAA runner-up. “I think this team is probably more efficient than that (2005-06) team was offensively,” Matta said. Led by forward Evan Turner, a player of the year candidate, the Buckeyes are a robust 23-10 ATS when they force 14 to 18 turnovers in a game.

Michigan State (21-6) plays three of last four games at home and has to win all three if they want to maintain Big Ten title hopes. The Spartans are surprisingly not mentally sturdy, especially when Kalin Lucas isn’t on the floor. Durrell Summers, Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe have not been come back better players after finishing second to North Carolina last season, which is why coach Tom Izzo’s club has been play against club at 10-16 ATS, in spite of lofty status. Sparty is 13-1 at home, but just 4-9 ATS this year.

Michigan State has won eight of last 10 over Buckeyes at the Breslin Center and can effectively end there conference title hopes, yet have uneasy 3-5-2 ATS record against the Buckeyes.
StatFox Power Line – Michigan State by 2

Villanova at Pittsburgh (+3, 147) 12:00E CBS (split)

Villanova (22-3, 16-8 ATS) has been undaunted in their pursuit of being Big East regular season champions and look to continue quest on the road. As good as the Wildcats amazing guards are, they couldn’t possibly have such a tremendous record without help inside. 6’8 Antonio Pena is masquerading as a center for Villanova and is their only true low post scorer and does excellent work as reliable interior defender. Taylor King, Isaiah Armwood and 6’11 Maurice Sutton all bring something most games to negate opponents frontline, letting Nova’s guards control the contest. The Wildcats are 11-5 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 games this season.

Pittsburgh (20-6, 13-8-2 ATS) flew by preseason presumptions starting 15-2, but once it was game after game in the Big East, the Panthers looked very much like the squad prognosticators believed they would be, losing four of five at one point. With a favorable slate the rest of the way, Pittsburgh has four game winning streak and can further change minds and attitudes with an upset win here. What doomed Pitt in that losing spell was the offense went stagnant, lacking no ball movement, with too many contested shots. Gilbert Brown and Brad Wanamaker have since recovered and Pitt is 10-1 ATS at home playing teams with a winning record after 15 or more games.

Pittsburgh has tamed the Wildcats at home with 5-0 SU and ATS mark.

Virginia Tech at Duke (-13, 138) 7:45E FSN

It’s the latter part of February and there has been nothing hokey about the Hokies being in contention in the ACC title chase. Virginia Tech (21-4, 10-8-1 ATS) is not your typical ACC squad, they are grittier bunch. “We win ugly games. That’s our team,” junior guard Malcolm Delaney said. The Hokies get after opponents on defense and do the little things like make free throws, especially at winning time. Virginia Tech is 28-16-1 ATS after a conference game over the last three seasons.

Just maybe, this Duke (22-4, 16-8-1 ATS) club is seeing improvement inside. As Dickie V has espoused, Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler are as good scoring-wise as any three players on any team in the country. Lately, the Plumlee brothers, Miles and Mason have been gobbling up more rebounds and points and Andre Dawkins is being heard from again. Even seldom used Ryan Kelly has come thru when fouls or injury have arisen for the Blue Devils. Duke is 8-1 ATS at Cameron Indoor vs. defensive teams conceding 64 or fewer points a game.

Virginia Tech can tie Duke with three losses in league play with a surprising win; however is 2-6 and 3-5 ATS in Durham in its six years as ACC member. The Blue Devils are 14-0 and 10-3 ATS on home floor, winning by gargantuan 27.6 points per game.

This Friday is SWEET!

Technically we were 3-0 last night, but we’ll gladly take the self-imposed 2-0, raising recent record to 14-3. We’ll begin with a Super System that is 84.4 percent in the NBA. We’ll follow that up with underdog play as Top Trend in Bracket Buster matchup. Kyle's Best Bet is up below. Good Luck

What I thought today – Today is a really good day. After starting the college basketball season 36-54-2 and down -60.3 units, I knew something has to change dramatically. I reevaluated my position, what I was doing, trying to understand the mistakes I was making and at least get close to .500 and just take my lumps.

Since Jan. 24, I’m pleased to report I’m 61-34-4 and in the black at 97-88-6 and more importantly +5.7 units for the season after 3-0 Thursday. I’ve carefully considered what led to this turnaround and will be sharing it in the next week or so. I fully understand that I could go right back to mediocrity, nevertheless feel a real sense of accomplishment in turning this year completely around.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On home teams like Portland when the line is +3 to -3, after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. This is awfully good NBA system at 27-5 ATS.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) William & Mary (I wonder what their last name is) is 11-2 ATS as an underdog this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kyle is passing on CBB tonight, but does like New Orleans in the NBA as best best. I'm breaking my own rule. Normally I chase off anyone who losses here, but in Kyle's case, because he's been so freakin' hot in CBB, he'll be back on Saturday no matter what. If the Hornets win, than everything is really cool.

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Learn from the power of the Bracket Buster

This upcoming college basketball weekend is a great time to be razor sharp on a number of teams that will make the NCAA Tournament field of 65 in about a month. Several of the squads on Bracket Buster weekend will be in the tournament or at least be playing post-season basketball somewhere and to have a working knowledge of them and their style of play and talent is invaluable for picking winners. Among the nuggets uncovered for Bracket Buster contests are road teams win only 38 percent, yet cover 56.4 percent of the time (149-115-9). Be sure to sift thru the complete board since teams catching 10 or more points are on 23-11 ATS move. Here is a look at four of the key televised games and much more available information.

Friday, Feb.19

Old Dominion at Northern Iowa (-3, 113) 7:00E ESPN2

Bracket Buster starts on Friday, with a delectable Colonial vs. Missouri Valley matchup. Old Dominion (21-7, 9-14-1 ATS) is 8-4 and 2-6 ATS in non-conference action and is one of the better defensive teams in the land, allowing 55.8 points a game. Kent Bazemore has taken over running the Monarchs at guard and his concern for ball security and defensive mindset has ODU living up to preseason expectations in the CAA. This should be a low scoring half court contest and the Monarchs are 0-6 ATS in road games when they score 60 or less points in a game this season.

Center Jordan Eglseder is the most likely candidate to be the Valley Player of the Year; however he’s been suspended for three games and will not play in this contest. As witnessed in recent contest against Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa (23-3, 17-8 ATS) has to have Adam Koch at crunch time. The senior has size at 6’9, making him difficult to defend within 10 feet of the rim as power forward against comparable teams and Koch has a quality array of ways to score either near the bucket or outside. The Panthers have complete control of the conference; nonetheless a win against a similar club, with similar circumstances would be a boost to confidence before the Big Dance. UNI is 10-3 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by four or points a game this season.

Saturday, Feb. 20

Siena at Butler (-7.5, 141) 11:00E ESPN2

Veteran basketball observers will tell you the difference between Butler and Siena is location, Indianapolis and historic Hinkle Fieldhouse vs. Loudonville, N.Y. The Saints (22-5, 14-9-2 ATS) have strung together four straight 20-win seasons and earns nationally televised cable contest against ranked opponent. "It's a great opportunity for our program," Siena coach Fran McCaffery said. The Saints have a great deal of depth, but pay particular attention to forward Alex Franklin and guard Ronald Moore. Siena is 17-7 ATS in road games after a trio of favorite roles.

It’s a rare occasion when Butler (24-4, 11-17 ATS) is out of Horizon League play in televised tilt with the opposing team having more to gain with a victory. That is the case in this matchup, with the Bulldogs the hunted. A solid win against a team like Siena carries positives, as they have good RPI numbers and are highly thought of in basketball circles, which could improve Butler’s seeding in the middle of March. If you have missed the Bulldogs, keep a watchful eye on forward Gordon Hayward (NBA potential), Matt Howard and point guard Shelvin Mack who runs the show. The marquee matchup of Bracket Buster Saturday has Butler 12-0 at home with 4-8 ATS mark.

Louisiana Tech at Northeastern (-8.5, 135) 1:00E ESPN2

If Louisiana Tech (20-6, 11-9-1 ATS) could have substituted teams from New Mexico off the schedule (0-3), they would be having an even better season. Expectations were low coming in the 2009-10 campaign, with the Bulldogs presumed to be a run of the mill WAC club. A strong senior core blended with the 6’7 redshirt sophomore power forward Olu Ashaolu, has transformed a team nobody knew about into a WAC conference contender, garnering national attention with a contest like this. Home attendance is the highest in four years in Ruston and they’ve drawn a record crowd this season in their three-year old building. Now Louisiana Tech has to go prove themselves and is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two seasons.

The old story of “you don’t learn anything by losing” doesn’t apply to Northeastern. As they prepared for seventh place tournament game in Hawaii on Dec. 25, the Huskies stood at 2-7 and their season was unraveling to say the least. Northeastern (18-9, 15-10-1 ATS) defeated SMU 73-62 and exploded from that point, with 16-2 and 13-5 ATS record. "I think this team learned from losing," coach Bill Coen said. "It was more a mental thing. We decided to take a little more pride in what we were doing on defense." The Huskies are 11-4 ATS after allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games this season.

New Mexico State at Pacific (-5, 140.5)10:00E ESPNU

It was a sluggish start to the season for New Mexico State at 3-6 for good reason. Forwards Wendell McKines and Troy Gillenwater were ineligible academically to start the year and McKines was the first to return, followed by Gillenwater and now the Aggies are fighting for WAC championship, having won 13 of last 16 (9-3-1 ATS). New Mexico State (16-9, 11-8-1 ATS) likes to play all 94 feet in scoring 77.9 points per game and still has three challenging road encounters, including this contest. The Aggies are 7-2-1 ATS after having won three of their last four games this season.

This was supposed to be the year Pacific (17-8, 11-13 ATS) became just another club in the Big West after losing its top four point producers from last season. When it comes to doing the job, these Tigers still have plenty of bite, tied for the lead in the conference. Pacific is not built to play the up and down game like the Aggies (average total score about 125 points) and they will have to control the tempo at the Spanos Center.

The teams have played a number of common opponents this season -- St. Mary's, Cal State Fullerton, Pepperdine, Nevada, Fresno State and San Jose State. Pacific is 4-2 and 2-4 ATS against those teams and N.M. State is 4-4 and 3-5 ATS. The Tigers are 27-15 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.

Tune it up for Thursday

We are off a 3-0 Tuesday and I believe 12-3 (11-3-1 for some) in last 15 tries for 3DW. Kyle has been nothing short of amazing and hands out what he believes to be another CBB winner out of the West Coast Conference. On the topic of the WCC, that is where today’s Top Trend comes from. Today’s Top System is not official play (needs to be 80 percent) however the best I could find is awfully close at 79.2 percent. Good Luck

What I thought last night- Ohio State deserved to lose last night, taking I believe eight consecutive shots from 20 feet or better and not converting one after taking the lead in second half. Coach Thad Matta gets a C for last night for not running play in the lane. (Don’t want to hear they couldn’t pass the ball down low either, I witnessed six times somebody was open in the post)

Sometimes life isn’t fair. Notre Dame deserved to win last night at Louisville, losing in 2 OT’s without Big East’s leading scorer and four players fouling out but didn’t, at least backers got the money.

It was vodka bottle clear last night what is wrong with Texas, collectively they just don’t play as hard as they did earlier in the season, period.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home favorites of 10 or more points like Denver U. revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, against opponent off a home loss against a conference rival. This almost qualifying system is 42-11 ATS, 79.2 the last five years.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) The Portland Pilots (good to know your nicknames) are 10-1 ATS as a favorite this season winning by 14.3 points per contest.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Mr. College Basketball, Kyle, is on 25-4 run and prefers St. Mary’s tonight.

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NBA offers two tough choices Thursday

Though injuries are a part of the game in any sport, it seems this season more games than ever are releasing later numbers on sides and totals. Kobe Bryant is the reason for the Lakers and Boston matchup coming out later than what most would prefer and based on his comments yesterday, he’s 50-50 at best for tonight. Both Denver and Cleveland have dealt with their fair share of missed games by key players and now Nuggets coach George Karl will begin treatment again for cancer, adding another factor to consider. Betting the NBA is difficult enough besides trying to figure out other variables.

Cleveland improves, while Denver mulls future

The Cavaliers front office is looking to make sure they do everything in their power to set up LeBron James and teammates for a return visit to the NBA Finals. Yesterday, they engineered a three-way trade that brings Antawn Jamison to town from Washington, giving them one more scoring option within 15 feet of the basket. No word if the long time Wizard star will be there for tonight’s game on time, however it would seem he would relish the chance to be a club with a true chance to win a title and would try to get to Cleveland by air, bus or even driving a Toyota.

Cleveland (43-11, 28-25-1 ATS) has mowed down 13 straight opponents (8-5 ATS) as they prepare for first game in a week and the Cavaliers are 17-7 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season. “I think our team is built to win a championship,” James said. “With the group of guys we have here, if we continue to get better, we’re headed in the right direction.” King James has been doing his part, averaging 33.5 points a game in last six contests prior to All-Star break.

Denver (35-18, 24-26-3 ATS) has seen stars Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony miss considerable time this season, yet they’ve been able to hear that one voice in the locker room, on the practice floor and the one on bench during games. The importance of coaching in the NBA has been debated for decades, since the teams with the best talent usually win; nonetheless, a coach today has to know how to massage massive egos, while challenging his players to get better. What the loss of Karl will mean is impossible to gauge at the moment.

It was shocking just to hear it,” forward Kenyon Martin told the Nuggets’ official Web site. “He told us he’s battled it before so he knows what it takes to get right. He’s going to do all he can to get his body right and his health together and we’re going to do all we can to make sure the basketball end is taken care of.” A rested Denver squad is good for the Nuggets with 28-12 ATS record when playing four or less games in 10 days over the last two seasons.

Bookmaker.com has Cleveland as 6.5-point favorites with 206 point total and it will be worth watching to see if they can keep up same pace of 15-2 ATS record in home games after two straight outings converting 50 percent of their shots or better. Denver has quickie two game road sojourn and is 26-10 ATS after consecutive home contests.

This is the opener on TNT starting at 8:00 Eastern and the Nuggets are 4-8 SU and ATS in last dozen visits to what Forbes is now calling “America’s most miserable city”. Denver is also 21-7 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.

Kobe, where are you?

Less than three weeks ago, the Celtics and Lakers matchup were being sold to the masses as one of the greatest games of all time with the ESPN/ABC hype machine in overdrive. This time at 10:30 on the East Coast, not so much. Other factors are also playing a role why this contest, still meaningful, lacks the panache this time around.

Start with Kobe Bryant, unlikely to play with bad wheel, which would make five straight games without him for the Lakers. Los Angeles (42-13, 25-28-2 ATS) is still an extremely talented club and they have reeled off four wins in a row in his absence, covering three of them. It would also make sense for Bryant not to play, since the Lakers don’t play again until next Tuesday, buying even more time for him. L.A. is 26-4 and 14-15-1 ATS at the Staples Center, winning by 9.9 points per game.

This is the middle game of a five-game road trip for Boston (33-18, 19-31-1 ATS) and rumors continue to swirl the Celtics are trying to deal Ray Allen for a younger shooting guard. Boston is 8-10 since Jan. 8, hardly championship material and backers have spoken with great turgidity about 4-13-1 ATS record in that span.

One belief Boston fans have is Paul Pierce will play well, as the Los Angeles native has averaged 27.1 points a game in 10 visits against the Lakers. Boston won, but failed to cover two nights ago in Sacramento and is 10-19-1 ATS after a non-cover this season and will be a four-point road underdog, trying to improve on inept 1-10-1 ATS mark against Pacific Division clubs.

The Lakers go for fifth win in a row and sweep of Celtics and off their 104-94 win Tuesday over Golden State, are 7-1-1 ATS after scoring 100 or more points. L.A. is just 1-4 ATS hosting Boston in last five tries, though the favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in previous eight regular season encounters.

Two Big East teams in need of W

After 25 games, the only question remaining for Syracuse was would they be the top seed in the East Region when the NCAA bids come out in just over three weeks? Despite suffering just their second loss of the year this past Sunday, now they might not even be in first place in their conference this upcoming weekend with another defeat. And what about Georgetown, whose as reliable as Toyota these days. College basketball in February, the bettors dream and nightmare all rolled into one.

Maybe the Orangemen (24-2, 15-7 ATS) were due for a flat outing like they suffered at home to Louisville, losing 66-60 as seven-point favorites. Save about seven total minutes, Syracuse players looked like zombies, going through the motions.

They have played similar to this of late with 3-4 ATS mark, winning games in the last five minutes, until they finally got burned. The Orangemen can still play, inside or out and their 2-3 zone is the most active coach Jim Boeheim has had in years. With the tenacity of the Big East, fouls are inevitable and Syracuse has a bench, with Scoop Jardine, Kris Joseph and Mookie Jones in particular making immediate contributions for a team already loaded. The ‘Cuse is 13-5 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season.

A closer look reveals Wesley Johnson doesn’t appear to be completely healthy from a couple of spills this month (10-35 shooting) and his game has lacked the explosiveness seen earlier. With opponents taking a wait and see attitude with Johnson, they’ve been shadowing Andy Rautins more and his shooting has been off and Syracuse guards have been less inclined to dump the ball down to the big guys in the paint. Add it up and team averaging 80.8 points per game, has scored 72 or less in four of last five.

Coach John Thompson III has tried to develop a bench, with no success. Yes, sophomore guard Jesse Clark continues to improve and Georgetown (18-6, 11-9 ATS) might well become a very treacherous club to play in March with Austin Freeman, Greg Monroe, Chris Wright the principle scorers. Clark would make the Hoyas almost impossible to guard, likely giving them at least three bonafide scorers each contest with a fourth possible almost any time.

The conundrum arises when two of guys are off their game, who does Thompson turn to. Of course he’s going to say his players know they have to play heavy minutes and it’s not a big deal. What are his options? Admit he could be a little less stern and have fewer players transfer or fess up his recruiting efforts haven’t been as good as other top level programs, he lives in Washington D.C. for goodness sake, why be completely honest when hardly anyone else in town is. Georgetown is 9-24 ATS at home after playing consecutive games as favorite.

Though the Hoyas haven’t won three in a row since Jan. 3, they haven’t lost two in a row either and are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS off a loss, returning home after being upset by Rutgers 71-68 as 10.5-point favorites. In fact, G-Town is sensational 8-0 SU after failing to cover with 6-1 ATS record.

Bookmaker.com has the Hoyas as two-point favorites for this Big East battle and Georgetown is 9-22 ATS in last 31 conference clashes and Syracuse 9-0 and 8-1 ATS away from the Carrier Dome this season.

These are two universities that helped make the Big East Conference nationally known in basketball and they have played oodles of memorable contests. The Jan. 25 meeting was noteworthy for its unusualness. The Hoyas opened up a 14-0 lead and slattern away the good fortune, being outscored 73-41 from that point forward.

This is part of ESPN2 Thursday Showcase, with the SU winner 14-2 ATS since 2000 in the regular season.

NBA Road Teams as Hot as Brooklyn Decker

While Phoenix is known as a great vacation spot other than the summer time and Utah is known for, well, being Utah, both basketball teams are heating up in what should be another scintillating run for eight playoff spots in the Western Conference. Both teams are in action tonight, on the road, seeking to keep the momentum building.

Jazz hitting all the right notes

The Jazz (33-19, 31-18-3 ATS) opened the second part of their schedule with a road win last night in Houston 104-95 and they will have three more games away from home on this trip. Utah has won 10 of 11 (8-2-1 ATS) and 14 of last 16 (11-2-3 ATS). Never regarded as superior visiting club, the Jazz are attempting to win their fifth consecutive road game for the first time in two years when they visit New Orleans (28-25, 26-27 ATS).

The Hornets are adjusting to life without superstar guard Chris Paul, who had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee and is out a minimum of three more weeks. New Orleans, after losing three in a row, won two of last three before the break, covering all of them thanks to hot shooting, which hid defensive flaws. The Hornets are 9-1 ATS after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47 percent or higher over the last two seasons.

Utah is playing outstanding team basketball and is 30-13 ATS after a game with 30 or more assists, which raised their record to 13-3 ATS in the last two February’s. This leads to the Jazz as 3.5-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total of 201.5. New Orleans has won the only meeting between these teams this season in Utah, yet is 7-17 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons. This encounter starts just after 8:00 Eastern in local markets, with the Hornets 13-3 UNDER as a home underdog.

Farewell Amare?

The Phoenix Suns (32-22, 28-25-1 ATS) have been playing their best basketball since early November, on 6-1 SU and ATS roll off their impressive 109-95 win at Memphis yesterday. This was the second time the Suns have held an opponent under 40 percent shooting in this stretch of games; however the chemistry of this team is expected to be in flux.

Insider reports in Phoenix have contract talks between Amare Stoudemire and the Suns as wide apart as the Grand Canyon; fueling speculation a trade is imminent. Cleveland is still believed the most likely destination, though Miami is still in the mix. Charlotte’s name has been mentioned, however they have nothing the Suns would want or need, particularly since they sit at seventh seed presently, but just a couple of games out of moving up to fourth slot. As far as tonight, Phoenix is 13-5 ATS in road games after scoring 100 points or more five consecutive contests this year.

Dallas (32-21, 21-32 ATS) was lauded for acquiring Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson from Washington in a seven-player deal, nonetheless this much upheaval changes team dynamics and it takes at least a little time to sort out players roles. How the Mavericks handle this transitional period will likely decide they playoff positioning.

After losing at Oklahoma City 99-86 on Tuesday, shooting a season 32.3 percent, Dallas now has as many losses as San Antonio (21) and could tumble from third seed to eighth with a losing streak. The Mavericks are 4-7 (2-9 ATS) in last 11 and are 2-12 ATS at home after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.

Dallas is a 4.5-point home favorite, for reasons unknown. The Mavs are undistinguished 15-9 at American Airlines Center and gut-wrenching (for backers) 5-19 (that’s true) against the spread. The total of 217.5 might be the most important number to consider, since Dallas is 0-10 ATS on home floor versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots a game this campaign. Dallas has flustered Phoenix, winning seven of last eight in Big D (4-3-1 ATS) including four in a row.

This showdown is on ESPN starting at 9 Eastern and the Suns are 8-3 ATS as underdogs of 4.5 or fewer points. The Stoudemire watch continues.

Hurry up Tuesday

This whole 2-1 thing is working out rather well for bankroll builders. Have to make this quick, running late I know. Kick ass Kyle has another hopefully Free Winner. The Top Trend is perfection and a 83.3 percent Big Ten system is runnin’. Good Luck

What I thought today- (From 11:30 MST) The NBA returns to complete the remainder of the regular season and rumors and trades are flying fast and furious as teams look to position themselves for playoff seedings and runs. NBA bettors will have to adjust quickly.

As for today, the time off can not only break the rhythm of a given team, but also the handicapper. Excessive time off can create doubt, which is shown by not one game having moved more than a point on side action. Totals have shown more movement with New Jersey at Charlotte up two from opening 185.5 and Clippers and Trailblazers up 2.5-points to 193.5.

Possibly another explanation is bettors are getting a late start or the numbers are sharp, since the only side move of note in college basketball betting is Murray State, moving from -25 to -27, not exactly desirable either way for a team that wins by 23.8 points per game at home and holds opponents to 38.4 shooting.

The college totals are showing action heading in both directions. Favorites Hofstra, Georgia State, Virginia Tech and Michigan have all had totals move upward, anywhere from 2.5 to four points.

Underdogs North Carolina and Cincinnati have seen their matchups drop at least two points from original number.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play on road favorites of 10 or more points like Michigan State in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (32-36.5 percent), with the Spartans a good ball handling team at 14.4 or less turnovers vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-17.5 TO) after 15 or more games on the year. Since 1997 this system is 25-5 ATS.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Indiana State is 8-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, winning by 8.2 points per game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Even though I’ve been doing almost as well as Kyle, he’s on cruise control lapping the field. He likes Georgia Tech big tonight.

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Does hot shooting matter (for wagering) in college hoops?

In the late 1990’s, a person I had known for a number years had told me about a method of betting college and professional basketball that he used as part of his way of picking games. His reasoning was sound; though I’d never taken the time to go on a fact finding mission to see if what he was saying was true.

Over the years I never forgot he told me and would use his methodology as one last piece of the wagering puzzle in looking at a given contest. Three years ago I delved into the NBA numbers and found his idea to be somewhat accurate, with one area more profitable than the other. With a bit more time to look into different elements with football fading away in the rearview mirror, decided to check his beliefs in college hoops.

My gambling friend said this – Bet on college basketball teams that shoot 55 to 59.9 percent in last game and wager against those that connect on 60 percent or better of shot attempts in the same circumstance.

His logic was this, if a team shot the ball extremely well, in the 55 to almost 60 percent range, this would have a positive carryover affect into the next encounter, regardless of the opponent. The team would be playing with extreme confidence and though they might not win, they ended up playing well enough to cover the spread.

Concerning teams shooting 60 percent or higher, that is almost a freakish occurrence, as teams made a large number of shots close the bucket or they just shot “lights out”. Since this was such an unusual event, invariably the basketball gods would punish this team and they would shoot below their average in the next contest and lose against the spread. Again, sound logic.
For every college basketball team that shoots 55 to 59.5 percent, just over a third of the time (37.3 percent) will any team shoot 60 percent or higher. I went thru 18 different conferences to see what kind of results I could find for this season. If a team made enough shots in either category but did not face an opponent that would yield a pointspread, I discounted that game. Otherwise, everything else mattered.

Starting with the 55-59.9 percent range, the results were hugely disappointing. Through yesterday, teams that converted this many shots were 138-83 SU, with 107-110-5 ATS record. Not only were these teams not a good bet, they weren’t even .500.

Have to admit to being shocked, since over the years as I stated earlier, I had used this as part of handicapping arsenal and believed it was somewhat beneficial. Not having the time to check back over several years does leave open questions, however thinking about it, because the diversity of college opponents is far more varied for any team compared to the NBA, I could at least reason why this was the end result.

A number of the results did reveal or at least cause a moment of betting reflection. The Big East is the biggest conference, thus they have the most number of games that fit the criteria and the winners were 18-6 and 12-10-2 ATS. The A-10 has 14 teams despite its name and they were third with 16 qualifiers at 9-7 and 7-9 ATS, which is a rather low win percentage considering the number of baskets per attempts. The Big 12 was second in volume of games at 14-4, with unimpressive 7-11 ATS mark.

Teams from the Big Ten were 12-4 and 10-6 ATS; with Horizon League squads having same exact spread record with 7-9 SU mark.

A few other aspects stood out and are noteworthy. The Colonial Athletic Conference and MAC are well-respected mid-majors so to speak, with 12 teams in each league, yet they have had only six and eight games that made this study. It is to be presumed these conferences don’t have the same talent level as so-called BCS conferences, yet once you get beyond non-conference play, they are matched up against similar competition. Just an observation.

St. Mary’s and Syracuse are 5-0 ATS and 7-0 ATS respectively after shooting 55 to 59.9 percent this season.

The next area was also a surprise on a couple of levels and though better for gamblers, not overwhelming.

It starts with teams shooting 60 percent or higher are 54-34 SU in next game, which is 61.3 percent. The lower winning percentage made sense given how they played the previous outing, yet the spread results were nothing better than fair (in my opinion) at 40-48 ATS, 45.4 percent.

Once again perception vs. reality is frequently different and while this is just one not completed college basketball season, these are the facts as I could find. Its fun to note the Pac-10 is having a down year and teams off a hot shooting night of 60 percent or better are 3-3 with 1-5 ATS record, more in line with my thinking.

We’ve all witnessed Georgetown’s ups and downs and they are 0-3 SU and ATS after bursting to 60 percent bubble this year.

The final conclusion is it’s not a bad idea to bet against teams after they shoot the ball extremely well and this could be particularly true if they are facing a solid defensive club. Otherwise, burning the nets doesn’t carry much weight in betting on next contest.

One final sad, yet mildly humorous note. I had not spoken to this individual in a few years since we both moved away from where we used to live and I called him to tell him about this article and research and before I could even give him all the results he blurted out “I haven’t used that in years for college buckets, doesn’t work to well these days”. Now I find out.

Another example of always trying to understand the ever changing world of sports betting.

Battle of Big Men in SEC Action

Kentucky’s second ranked basketball team is the tallest in the country and at any time they could play a NBA-sized frontline and often do. Four of their keys players are freshmen and from a purely talent standpoint only Syracuse might have more arguably, with Kansas right behind them. Though the Wildcats have been tripped up just once all season, they have not been to Starksville, where it is not unusual for Mississippi State (18-7, 11-8-1 ATS) to play beyond their ability when a top level team arrives in town.

Mississippi State’s offense may go up and like the stock market, but its defense delivers like UPS. Center Jarvis Varnado is a swatting machine near the bucket and has a real hunger for grabbing rebounds. The Bulldogs have been at the top of the SEC in fewest points allowed (62.6 points per game) nearly the entire season and would be a Top 25 team if coach Rick Stansbury could get reliable point guard play. Whether its regular starter Dee Bost or backups, too many forced plays and poor shot selection have contributed to Mississippi State losing six games by five points or less.

The Bulldogs defeated Auburn in overtime 85-75 in last contest and are 8-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. They are tied with Arkansas at 6-4 for the SEC West lead and their offense is built around making long bombs. Mississippi State made 11 three’s balls against the Tigers for the win and they are proficient at home shooting the long ball with 39.7 percent marksmanship, converting on 10 of 26 attempts. With a defense that allows 36.8 percent shooting percentage and ability to score in bunches, it’s no wonder Mississippi State is 14-2 ATS against offensive clubs scoring 77 or points a game.

The Wildcats (24-1, 12-11 ATS) might not do everything right to please coach John Calipari, but they are awfully close. This team is dominated by freshmen who can play and they have grown as the season as progressed. That is not only a compliment to the players, but to Coach Cal who has impressed on them the importance of playing defense, holding opponents 37.6 percent shooting, by effectively cutting off the lane area. Though the Bulldogs are good rebounding team with a +4 in margin differential, Kentucky is one of the best in the country at +10. The Wildcats are 26-8 ATS after three straight games outrebounding opponent by six or more.

Kentucky will have to stand-up to three point barrage they will face. “They are going to shoot them whether you are there or not, you just have to make them hard,” Calipari said. “You have to understand what you’re playing against. You can’t fall asleep.” The Wildcats are 3-8 ATS off a spread win, including dropping last five.

Kentucky is three-point favorite at Bookmaker.com, with total of 143. The game features a potential unique matchup of big men, Varnado against DeMarcus Cousins. Varnado leads the SEC and ranks sixth nationally with 11.3 rebounds per game, and he’s second in NCAA history with 519 career blocked shots. Cousins’ has exceptional offensive skills in the paint, is an aggressive defender and can really run the court. “They’re two different kinds of players,” coach Calipari said. “One is going to block shots and be active and be quicker to the ball. The other is just a hard matchup for teams.” Kentucky is 14-5 UNDER after consecutive wins against conference rivals over the last three seasons.

This is the second game on Super Tuesday on ESPN and Mississippi State has won 12 in a row at Humphrey Coliseum since losing home opener (4-3-1 ATS) and they are 10-1 ATS versus teams making 48 percent of their shots since 2007-08 season. Big Blue has won four of last six in Starksville and is 17-8 ATS off a home win. Because the Bulldogs are not great at guard, John Wall could be the difference.

Keep in mind, the team with the higher three-point shooting percentage is 4-1 ATS.

NBA AT THE BREAK… Teams and Trends to Ponder

Some say the NBA is simply an acronym for Nothing But Aggravation. Others contend it’s merely a Nice Bankroll Additive. Whatever your take, there is no better time than the present – with Pro Basketball taking a time out for the All-Star break - to examine the condition of each team in the league at this stage of the season. From the surprise teams to the disappointments, the run to the playoffs is about to take off.

What we’ve seen thus far is some teams have excelled against foes that do not own a winning record, such as the Hawks (18-8 ATS) and the Kings (17-9-1 ATS), while others have struggled in games against lousy competition, such as the Mavericks (9-17 ATS), the Nets (8-16-1 ATS) and the Hornets (8-18 ATS).

On the flip, a handful of teams have risen to the occasion when squaring off against quality, winning opposition – teams like the Cavaliers (21-4 SU and 16-7-2 ATS), the Hornets 18-9 ATS) and the Thunder (19-9 ATS). The Wizards are biggest money burner in games against winning teams (7-14 ATS), season to date.

Here’s a quick look at some of the GOOD, BAD, and UGLY team trends on every team and how they have fared SU (Straight Up) and ATS (Against The Spread) this season in games played through the All-Star break. In addition, I also break down performance records for each team in games versus .500 or less and greater than .500 opponents this campaign. Do your homework now, and enjoy the rest of the season…

ATLANTA
Good: 12-2 ATS vs. .375 or less opp
Bad: 1-4 ATS as dog less than five points
Ugly: 0-3 ATS with no rest vs. division
Vs. .500 or less: 19-7 SU, 18-8 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 15-10 SU, 14-11 ATS

BOSTON
Good: 6-1-1 ATS pick or favorite 4 or less points
Bad: 1-7 ATS favorites 12 or more points
Ugly: 1-11 ATS home off loss
Vs. .500 or less: 23-6 SU, 10-19 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 9-12 SU, 9-11-1 ATS

CHICAGO
Good: 5-0-1 ATS vs. division opp off loss
Bad: 3-9 ATS away off SU and ATS loss
Ugly: 1-5 ATS off SU favorite loss
Vs. .500 or less: 13-12 SU, 10-13-2 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 12-14 SU, 14-12 ATS

CLEVELAND
Good: 8-0 SU and ATS vs. .750 or greater opp
Bad: 1-4 ATS home with no rest
Ugly: 0-3 SU and ATS vs. opp with 3+ days rest
Vs. .500 or less: 20-6 SU, 10-16 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 21-4 SU, 16-7-2 ATS

DALLAS
Good: 7-1 ATS away off loss
Bad: 3-16 ATS home vs. non-division opp
Ugly: 0-4 ATS off BB SU and ATS losses
Vs. .500 or less: 18-8 SU, 9-17 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 14-12 SU, 12-14 ATS

DENVER
Good: 7-0-1 ATS home vs opp off double-digit win
Bad: 1-6 ATS off SU dog win
Ugly: 0-4 ATS away vs. opp off SU dog win
Vs. .500 or less: 11-18 SU, 11-16-2 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 6-16 SU, 10-11-1 ATS

DETROIT
Good: 4-1-1 ATS vs. .250 or less opp
Bad: 4-14-2 ATS off ATS loss 4 or more points
Ugly: 0-5-1 ATS fav off SU and ATS loss
Vs. .500 or less: 11-18 SU, 11-16-2 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 6-16 SU, 10-11-1 ATS

GOLDEN STATE
Good: 7-1 ATS dog vs. unrested opp
Bad: 2-6 SU and ATS fav less 6 points
Ugly: 1-5 ATS off loss vs. opp of SU dog win
Vs. .500 or less: 10-15, 12-12-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 4-22 SU, 16-10 ATS

HOUSTON
Good: 3-0 ATS vs. opp with 3 more days rest
Bad: 2-9 ATS fav with revenge
Ugly: 0-5 ATS vs. non div opp off SU dog win
Vs. .500 or less: 18-8, 13-13 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 9-16 SU, 11-14 ATS

INDIANA
Good: 5-0 ATS double-digit dog
Bad: 1-5 ATS off loss vs div opp
Ugly: 1-7 ATS dog 3 less points
Vs. .500 or less: 14-16 SU, 13-17 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 4-18 SU, 9-13 ATS

LA CLIPPERS
Good: 5-1-1 ATS fav vs Eastern Conference
Bad: 1-6 ATS dog vs opp off double-digit win
Ugly: 0-7 ATS with rest vs. con opp off BB SU and ATS losses
Vs. .500 or less: 14-15 SU, 13-15-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 7-16 SU, 11-12 ATS

LA LAKERS
Good: 6-1 ATS away vs. opp off double-digit loss
Bad: 2-7-1 ATS fav 5 less points
Ugly: 1-6 ATS av vs opp off BB SU and ATS wins
Vs. .500 or less: 23-3 SU, 14-12 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 18-10 SU, 11-15-2 ATS

MEMPHIS
Good: 12-1 ATS off win vs. opp of loss
Bad: 3-8 ATS away off loss
Ugly: 0-5 ATS off loss vs opp off SU and ATS win
Vs. .500 or less: 12-7 SU, 11-7-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 14-18 SU, 16-16 ATS

MIAMI
Good: 10-2 ATS vs. less .400 opp
Bad: 1-5 ATS vs. opp off SU dog win
Ugly: 0-3 SU and ATS off 3 wins
Vs. .500 or less: 16-10 SU, 14-12 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 10-17 SU, 12-14-1 ATS

MILWAUKEE
Good: 7-1 ATS no rest vs unrested opp
Bad: 1-5 ATS off SU dog win vs. opp off win
Ugly: 0-3 ATS off 3-0 SU and ATS
Vs. .500 or less: 19-11 SU, 19-11 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 5-16 SU, 12-9 ATS

MINNESOTA
Good: 9-0 ATS dog less 4 points
Bad: 4-11 ATS off BB losses vs opp off loss
Ugly: 0-5 ATS vs unrested con opp
Vs. .500 or less: 8-20 SU, 15-13 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 5-20 SU, 13-12 ATS

NEW JERSEY
Good: 4-0 ATS double-digit div dog
Bad: 12-27-2 ATS vs. non div opp
Ugly: 0-3 SU and ATS fav
Vs. .500 or less: 4-21 SU, 8-16-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 0-27 SU, 11-15-1 ATS

NEW ORLEANS
Good: 10-2 ATS dog more 7 points
Bad: 2-10 ATS fav off win
Ugly: 0-9 ATS vs. less .300 opp
Vs. .500 or less: 15-11 SU, 8-18 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 13-14 SU, 18-9 ATS

NEW YORK
Good: 8-1 ATS off loss 14 more points
Bad: 1-5 ATS off double-digit win
Ugly: 1-6 ATS away with no rest
Vs. .500 or less: 14-18 SU, 14-17-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 5-14 SU, 9-10 ATS

OKLAHOMA CITY
Good: 14-1 ATS off SU and ATS loss
Bad: 2-6 ATS vs unrested opp
Ugly: 1-6 ATS off double-digit ATS win vs opp off BB wins
Vs. .500 or less: 16-7 SU, 13-10 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 14-14 SU, 19-9 ATS

ORLANDO
Good: 8-0 ATS vs. unrested opp off win
Bad: 1-5 ATS vs opp off BB SU and ATS losses
Ugly: 1-7 ATS home off SU and ATS win
Vs. .500 or less: 22-7 SU, 15-12-2 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 14-11 SU, 9-13-3 ATS

PHILADELPHIA
Good: 5-0 ATS dog more 10 points
Bad: 7-18 ATS home
Ugly: 1-8 ATS home dog
Vs. .500 or less: 13-17 SU, 12-18 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 7-15 SU, 11-11 ATS

PHOENIX
Good: 4-0 ATS away vs opp off BB SU and ATS losses
Bad: 2-7 ATS off win 18 more points
Ugly: 0-5-1 ATS with revenge vs. unrested opp
Vs. .500 or less: 17-9 SU, 13-13 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 14-13 SU, 14-12-1 ATS

PORTLAND
Good: 5-0 ATS no rest vs. opp of loss
Bad: 2-6-1 ATS off SU and ATS loss vs. opp off SU and ATS win
Ugly: 0-4 ATS off win vs. unrested opp
Vs. .500 or less: 18-9 SU, 14-12-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 13-15 SU, 15-12-1 ATS

SACRAMENTO
Good: 8-1 double-digit dog
Bad: 3-9 ATS vs. Eastern Conference opp off win
Ugly: 0-5 ATS away vs. opp off SU favorite loss
Vs. .500 or less: 15-12 SU, 17-9-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 3-22 SU, 10-14-1 ATS

SAN ANTONIO
Good: 5-1 ATS off double-digit win vs opp off BB wins
Bad: 2-5 ATS dog 2 more points
Ugly: 1-8 ATS off division
Vs. .500 or less: 20-8 SU, 15-13 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 10-13 SU, 10-13 ATS

TORONTO
Good: 8-2 ATS vs unrested opp
Bad: 3-9 ATS with no rest
Ugly: 1-7 ATS away off loss vs. non div opp
Vs. .500 or less: 21-10 SU, 17-14 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 8-13 SU, 10-11 ATS

UTAH
Good: 9-0 SU and ATS home vs unrested opp
Bad: 2-5 ATS vs. div opp off loss
Ugly: 0-5 ATS fav more 7 points vs div opp off loss
Vs. .500 or less: 17-7 SU, 14-10 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 15-12 SU, 17-8-2 ATS

WASHINGTON
Good: 4-1 ATS off win by less than 4 points
Bad: 1-6 ATS vs. .750 greater opp
Ugly: 1-10 ATS fav more 2 points
Vs. .500 or less: 11-18 SU, 11-15-3 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 6-15 SU, 7-14 ATS

Written by Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com.

Let's have fun on Monday - Winning that is

Take the old 2-1 day every day. Wouldn’t it be great to go 2-1 for a year and bet each day progressively! Have Big Monday system and Top Trend in action in separate games. The former is 82.4 percent and the latter is perfect. While not perfect, Kyle is damn close with the runs he’s on. His next top play is up. Good Luck

What I thought today- What’s not to like about New Mexico? The Lobos were one of the early surprise teams in the country starting 12-0. After a few early stumbles in the Mountain West Conference, New Mexico stabilized and has won nine in a row, including two very impressive road games at UNLV and Utah, raising their record to 23-3 and mostly importantly to all of us 16-8-1 ATS.

Baylor is 19-5 after their 64-62 win over Missouri Saturday. Watching the Bears, they do a lot of things well, which is why it is hard to understand why they have only covered two of their last six games. Tweety Carter and Ekpe Udah are special talents for Scott Drew’s team. Shot selection seems to be the biggest problem at winning time.

Duke is obviously the best team in a so-so ACC league, yet being such a public team, they are 10-3 ATS at home. With a 14-0 SU record, maybe winning by 27.6 points per game has something to do with.

Illinois played like a team on Sunday that ran out of gas playing one tough after another in the Big Ten and couldn’t muster the emotion needed for a focused and clearly superior Ohio State club.

Louisville has become one those teams you can’t trust to bet for or against. The Cardinals stood at 1-6 and 2-5 ATS in true road games after being ripped to shreds by St. John’s 74-55 as 5.5-point road favorites. You would figure they would play better at Syracuse since Rick Pitino is too good of coach. However, after the Orangemen took a lead in the final seven minutes, you had to believe Louisville would again find a way to lose on the road to the No.2 team in the country and instead they fought right back and pulled the upset. Are you watching Villanova?

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Free Basketball System -1) Play Against a favorite like Villanova after scoring 80 points or more in a win over a conference rival, against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. Since 2005, this dandy system is 28-6 ATS, 82.4 percent.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Kansas is 12-0 ATS when playing against teams with 60-80 percent win percentage after 15 or more games over the last two seasons, winning by 14.9 PPG.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kyle was 3-0 yesterday, the dude is just freakin’ sick right now. He’s thinking Maryland mashes Virginia.

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Is Kansas Good Bet on the road as No.1?

When any team is ranked No.1 and takes to the road in conference action, they are a massive target. Kansas (24-1, 10-11-1 ATS) has been finding that out with regularity (2-2-1 ATS Big 12 roadies) and hits the pavement to College Station, looking to avoid the upset. The Jayhawks have a plethora of talent on its roster, but those blue jerseys bring out the best in their opponents, making the 17-8 ATS record against Big 12 combatants since last year all the greater an accomplishment.

Coach Bill Self won his 400th game Saturday night in less than 17 seasons, in non-cover over Iowa State 73-59. When asked about thoughts of joining the legends of coaching like Bobby Knight and Dean Smith who have over 800 wins, Self said this, “I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of guys who win 800 from this point forward. I think the business has changed enough where guys aren’t going to coach for as many years as they had.

Self’s Jayhawks are 9-3-1 ATS off a spread loss since last season.

The Aggies have enjoyed a genial campaign in 2009-10 at 18-6 and are tied for second place in the Big 12 with Kansas State at 7-3, nonetheless the schedule-maker back-loaded Texas A&M (12-8 ATS) with one toughie after another. This Big Monday matchup will test their endurance, after Saturday’s 67-65 winning conflict at Texas Tech. B.J. Holmes led the way with 18 points for Aggies club that has won six of seven, including winning and covering four in a row.

For senior guard Donald Sloan this is really meaningful and a “W” would punctuate a fine career. Reed Arena will be rocking with Texas A&M 16-0 at home (8-4 ATS) dating back to last year and averaging better than 1,300 fans over stated capacity this season.

Kansas is favored by seven points at DiamondSportsbook.com and is 18-6 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a contest after 15 or more games over the last two seasons. The Jayhawks have won last six against Aggies, covering four of them. Texas A&M coach Mark Turgeon has his team feeling good about itself at 8-3 and 7-3 ATS after a cover and 6-3 ATS as an underdog this season.

This is the second game on Big Monday and Kansas is 17-5 ATS in last 22 Monday assignments.

Nova takes over Big East with win

Prior to the season, Villanova was expected to be strong contender for the Big East regular season title after their Final Four appearance from a year ago and many of their backcourt players returning. The Wildcats have been exceptional all season at 22-2 (16-7 ATS) and with Syracuse being upset yesterday, can take over sole possession of first place with a victory.

The key player for Villanova is Scottie Reynolds, who directs an offense that scores 85.4 points per game. Reynolds finds ways to involve all his teammates and rarely dominates the ball despite scoring 19 points a game, which is fourth in the Big East.

I don’t want it to always be, Scottie will get us going,” Villanova coach Jay Wright said. “But I’m glad we have that. That’s something I always have in the back of my mind.” The Wildcats handled Providence Saturday 92-81 in non-cover and is 16-6 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival.

Connecticut (14-11, 8-14-1 ATS) was also thought to be among those teams capable of contending for Big East title, but that plan never got off the table. The Huskies are 4-8 in league play and have lost five of last six, covering the spread just one time. Even the return of coach Jim Calhoun (out seven games with undisclosed illness) did nothing to lift the spirits of UConn players who shot a season low 34.6 percent in home loss to Cincinnati 60-48.

“I thought it was one of the worst performances I’ve had here at UConn in 24 years,” said Calhoun. “I’m really incredibly disappointed by the performance, and I’m embarrassed by it, quite frankly.” The Huskies are 5-5 and 2-7 ATS off a loss this season.

That doesn’t mean to sell Connecticut short however. Calhoun is a Hall of Fame coach. In much the same manner, Louisville was sickly at St. John’s, losing by 19 points this past Thursday and came immediately back to knock off No. 2 Syracuse on Sunday. It would not be a shock if the Huskies are ferocious with plenty of spunk tonight in Philadelphia.

DiamondSportsbook.com has UConn catching 9.5-points with total of 155.5. The Huskies are 9-4 ATS as road underdogs and 6-2 ATS off a loss by 10 or more points. Villanova on the other hand is 19-8 ATS playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons and has covered last seven of 10 as a favorite.

This is the opening game on Big Monday starting at 7:00 Eastern and the home teams has covered eight of last 10 meetings.

Valentine's Day lineup

If you happened to follow our plays yesterday, you did quite well with 3-0 or 2-0-1 ATS record depending on when you bet against Denver. With no great plays on sides in college hoops, found one on the totals side at 26-5. Kyle continues to romp and has Big 10 (11) play as his best bet. The Top Trend is heavily against one club in A-10 action. We’ll look to duplicate that success today. Good Luck

What I thought today- Even if you don’t like golf, the televised views of Pebble Beach this weekend are truly amazing. I was lucky enough to go to the tournament and play the course the day after the event and believe me, if you are a golfer, don’t worry about the price, it’s a once in a life time experience. The first five holes over at Spyglass are equally as amazing.

Here are two articles that are must reads about the Daytona 500 and the NBA All-Star game. (I had nothing to do with them)

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Free Basketball System-1) Play Over when the total is 119.5 or less, in a game involving two slow-down teams (55 or fewer shots a game) after 15+ games, with one team making 47 percent or more of their shots in three straight contests. The hot shooting team is UCLA and the system is 26-5, 83.9 percent since 1997.

Free Basketball Trend- 2) DuQuesne 1-10 ATS in home games after consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kyle was 8-3 on Saturday including his winner on Richmond. His top for today is Northwestern.