Let's take a Saturday Adventure

Knocked down two of three on Friday and have another hopefully winning MLB system play that is 85.1 percent since 2005. The Free Pick is a NFL consensus play and the Top Trend is in afternoon action as 89.4 percent. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – These new energy bulbs that are designed to save electricity and are more expensive, end up being more costly because they burn WAY sooner. Anybody else experience this?

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like San Diego with a money line of +150 or more, a NL team with a low on-base percentage of .350 or less, against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP of 1.350 or less), with a hot starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.00 over his last three starts. This system is 85.1 percent the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The New York Yankees are 17-2 after six or more consecutive road games this season, winning by 2.6 runs per game.

Free Football Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection has eight bettors on Washington (when it was still -3) and one on Pittsburgh.

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Looking for a NFL Week 2 Upset Saturday?

The NFL preseason is even more unpredictable than the regular season, as incentives, coaching decisions and lack of continuity all play a larger role in August football. If one follows this line of thinking, this should suggest taking the points with the underdog is not a bad option, especially given the right circumstances. Here is a look at several potential upsets that could be in play on Saturday.

Oakland at San Francisco

Around the Oakland practice field this week, head coach Tom Cable heard the chant “Cable, Bumaye” - a reference to the “Ali, Bumaye” during the 1974 “Rumble In The Jungle” heavyweight fight between Muhammad Ali and George Foreman. The chant loosely translates to “Cable kill him”. This refers to reports of coach Cable clobbering assistant coach Randy Hanson, a reported Al Davis snitch.

Along with the usual absurdness that follows the Raiders, they have been running scrimmages recently against Bay Area partner San Francisco and getting their lunch and dinner handed to them. The 49ers’ players have been mocking them, which should lend itself to some professional pride by Oakland as three-point underdogs at Bookmaker.com. If nothing else, maybe the Niners will be too satisfied.

Carolina at Miami

Carolina committed a sloppy five turnovers in losing to the Giants on Monday night and will seek to tighten things down this week. Quarterback Jake Delhomme will see more action and the Panthers are a solid 8-4 ATS as dogs under coach John Fox and 6-1 SU & ATS against the AFC. Miami is a three-point home favorite and they are 16-24-3 against the spread when the favored squad.

Detroit at Cleveland

Both teams have a lot to prove this upcoming season, however Detroit has a greater sense of urgency after a winless regular season. Most people know the Lions were 4-0 (3-0-1 ATS) last preseason, before going on to make dubious history. Nevertheless, the circumstances are different as Detroit has new coaches and a real desire to bury the past. Cleveland looked absurdly pathetic in totaling 191 yards of offense against Green Bay in 17-0 loss. The Browns quarterback battle looks like it could have winner by default instead of someone earning the job. The Browns are 1-5 ATS against the NFC and are on 0-5 SU and ATS roll in the preseason. The Lions are catching 3.5-points.


San Diego at Arizona

Neither team played well in suffering defeat in first preseason games. San Diego threw for 329 yards last week, but had -2 turnover difference in losing 20-14 to Seattle as three-point favorites. The Chargers could be in a great situation since they are 9-1 ATS off a home loss. San Diego hits a rather potent system that states to Play On underdogs or pick, off an upset loss as a favorite, this week of the preseason. (28-8 ATS)

New Orleans at Houston

Both the Saints and Texans were winners last week. Houston was actually outgained by Kansas City by 27 yards, however was +3 in turnover margin. Matt Schaub was superb 7 for 7 in opener; however behind him Houston is thin at quarterback. Rex Grossman was presumed backup, but he injured hamstring and is out. That leaves Dan Orlovsky and Alex Brink to put up points for the Texans who are oddly 3-2-3 ATS at home. New Orleans has Drew Brees and experienced Mark Brunell to turn to and the Saints are 24-10 ATS in road games.

It's Friday Let it Rip!

Took a right cross to the chin with 1-2 day, but can hardly complain about 9-2 mark the last four days. That takes up to 201-137-3, almost back to 60 percent (59.4) since early April. Yesterday’s Best System was lone winner and has an 83.5 percent play in action. Want to know how the Dodgers might do tonight, check out the perfect Trend. Trent of the LCC is crazy NFL player and is already 7-1 in the preseason and offers his best play for Friday. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – I really liked Philadelphia after they lost to New England last week, but as the week progressed and I saw them as field goal road favorites, I pulled the plug and let the game slide, halfway thinking the Colts might be sharp after scoring three points. I was correct and like I’ve said before, sometimes it’s what you don’t do that saves you money.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Arizona with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing 10 runs or more. This bulging system is 101-20, 83.5 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Randy Wolf and the Dodgers are 10-0 in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since last season, winning by 3.1 runs per game.

Free Football Pick -3) Trent of the Left Coast Connection loves preseason NFL action and likes Kansas City to manipulate Minnesota and win outright.

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Friday NFL Wagering Opportunities

The Week 2 NFL preseason card thickens with a trio of wagering options to start the weekend. The showcase contest is Tennessee at Dallas, which will be on Fox starting at 8 Eastern. Kansas City will make the trip north to Brett Favre country (now west of Wisconsin) to face the Vikings and former division rivals Atlanta and St. Louis will collide near the shores of the Mississippi River. (Picture made you take a closer look, admit it)

Tennessee at Dallas

The world will get its first look at the brand new Cowboys Stadium, with its retractable-roof, built for reported price of $1.15 billion, which is big even by Texas standards. Dallas gave their usual desultory first game effort (2-5 SU and ATS), in being whacked by Oakland 31-10. Quarterback Tony Romo should see increased playing time in preparation for the regular season. Dallas will look to control Tennessee’s running game since they are 0-11 ATS when they allow 125 to 150 rushing yards.

Tennessee already has wrapped up two wins in August and would gladly take a third if the Cowboys want to go thru the motions again. The storyline for the Titans is this, will Vince Young be able to build on last week’s crisp performance (9-14 for 131 yards, TD)? DiamondSportsbook.com has Dallas as three-point favorites with the total at 37 points. Tennessee is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a road underdog, while the Cowboys are 2-9 ATS at home when the total is between 35.5 and 38 points.

Kansas City at Minnesota

The circus has come to Minneapolis, not the Big Top with cotton candy, thrills and chills, no its Brett Favre, this time wearing a Barney-colored number four. Whatever the reasons for Favre’s return, coach Brad Childress has believed since last season the former Packer and Jet quarterback is better than what he’s had on his roster. Sage Rosenfels is now the backup and in all likelihood, Tarvaris Jackson and John David Booty are playing for a roster spot.

The Vikings defense bottled up the Indianapolis last week (142 total yards) and is 5-1 ATS after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. Minnesota is a three-point favorite on the home turf and will sell more tickets for this encounter than anticipated.

With last week’s 16-10 home loss to Houston, Kansas City is now 5-16 and 4-16-1 ATS since 2004 in the preseason. New coach Todd Haley and Chiefs front office won’t say anything publicly, but there has to be a few furrowed brows after Matt Cassel was outplayed by both Brodie Croyle and Tyler Thigpen in Week 1. Kansas City has failed to cover six straight Week 2 assignments and is 3-12 ATS off a home loss.

Atlanta at St. Louis

New Coach Steve Spagnuolo will be on the home team sidelines in St. Louis for the first time Friday. The always intense former defensive coordinator was pleased with the play of the offensive line that helped generate 6.6 yards per attempt on 29 carries in 23-20 win as four-point road underdogs against the New York Jets. Everything isn’t perfect in Rams-land however, as starting quarterback Mark Bulger fractured pinkie on his throwing hand in practice this past Monday, and is presumed out two weeks. That means the reins are turned over to Kyle Boller as first choice, along with Brock Berlin and Keith Null. With top receiver Donny Avery already out bettors have pounced on Atlanta, taking them from one-point underdogs to three point favorites.

The Falcons backups couldn’t hold a 23-10 lead midway thru the third quarter at Detroit and were passed on the last play of the game 27-26. Matt Ryan and the rest of the first team are expected to see extended minutes this week; however the play of the Atlanta reserves is of note if the Birds face injuries during the regular season. The Falcons are 20-8 ATS after playing their last game on the road and are 6-1 against the number playing the second of two consecutive road encounters.

MLB Series Wagering - Yankees at Red Sox

With two World Series championship rings in the past five years, the Boston Red Sox don’t play baseball games hoping to make the postseason; they play for division titles and settle for the wild card if that is last option. With roughly a quarter of the season to be played, Boston knows this is their best chance to close the six game differential in the loss column with New York, with just three games remaining between these two rivals. "There's [42 games] of our season left," Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek said. "We have too many good characters on this team. We won't quit."

Boston (69-51, +3.3 units) feels they are gathering momentum, having won seven of last 10, including sweeping Toronto on the road. The Red Sox return home where they are 38-18 and could tie the Yankees for the best home record in baseball with a sweep. Terry Francona’s club is third in baseball in runs scored on home turf at 5.7 per contest and hopes to improve on that figure tonight. Besides all the obvious aspects that are in front of the BoSox, being bludgeoned 25-8 at Yankees Stadium two weeks ago in a four-game sweep adds incentive.

How good have the Yankees (76-45, +6.9 units) been since the All-Star break? The Bronx Bombers are 25-8 and have won nine of 10 series, including the last five in a row. "The one thing that I've been really proud about [with] this club is that there's a sense of urgency every night," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. "This club knows how to continue to push, and that's a good feeling.”

In the opener, Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22 ERA) will take the ball and he been awful of late with 0-3 record and a 7.54 ERA over his last four starts. New York will counter with Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09), whose been particularly sharp in allowing two or fewer runs in his last four starts. Only a lack of run support has kept him at 1-0 mark in these assignments. DiamondSportsbook.com has New York as -110 money road favorites, with total Ov10.5. The Yankees are 4-15 on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5, while Boston is 37-10 at home when the total is 10 or higher over the last two seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

As expected, Saturday’s contest will be a Fox Sports afternoon affair and New York will be a decided favorite. The pitching mismatch is the top reason; with A. J. Burnett (10-6, 3.69) facing Junichi Tazawa (1-2, 5.40). The Japanese right-hander came to this country noted for low-90’s fastball, splitter and change, but right-hand hitters are batting .542 in his 11.2 innings of work. The Yanks entered this series without a win in Bean-Town in 2009, nevertheless are 16-2 after six or more consecutive road games this year. Conversely, the Red Sox have really floundered against the better teams and are 4-12 playing against a club with a winning record in the second half of this season.

Game 2 Edge: Yankees

The final contest is night-time conflict on ESPN and should be a beauty. Two big time pitchers will be paired in C.C. Sabathia (14-7, 3.58) versus Josh Beckett (14-4, 3.58). The Yankees came into the weekend with a stellar 50-27 record in night games. The New York front office paid Sabathia a Hudson River barge of money and with crunch time now here, the big lefty is 4-0 this month, with 2.35 ERA and opposing batters hitting a feeble .185 against him. Boston also plays a decent brand of baseball under the lights at 50-34. Beckett has allowed three or fewer runs in 15 of his last 18 starts, with the Red Sox 14-4. He’s been especially effective at Fenway Park with 8-0 mark and the team winning 10 of 11 starts. Beckett and the BoSox are 17-5 as favorites.

Game 3 Edge: Boston

The Yankees are the better team and have the more favorable pitching matchups in two of the three games with the last contest arguably a push. Nonetheless, the Red Sox will want to flush the unsavory taste of being swept in the Bronx and have the confidence of winning seven straight at Fenway over New York. Thus, I’ll make a slightly wavering choice of Boston for this weekend.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: N.Y. Yankees -135, Boston +105

3DW Pick: Boston

2009 Record – 7-9 (4 straight wins)

3Daily Winners is Hot - Join the Fun

Over the last three days we’re a perfect 8-0 off Wednesday’s effort. The Sal train is rollin’ again as this professional gambler is making a mint in baseball this season (he’s told me) and will take another swing at Free Pick today. The Best System is in the City of Brotherly Love and who would love 83.6 percent? The Top Trend also involves Philly, just using the oblong ball. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – Seven of the pitchers who started major-league games on Wednesday entered the day with an ERA below 3.00 this season: Zack Greinke (2.33), Dan Haren (2.50), Adam Wainwright (2.62), Roy Halladay (2.65), Cliff Lee (2.86), Clayton Kershaw (2.91) and Jair Jurrjens (2.99). It was the first time that at least seven qualifying pitchers with an ERA below 3.00 started on the same day this late in a calendar year since Aug. 30, 1992: Juan Guzman (2.35), Kevin Appier (2.44), Tom Glavine (2.56), Charles Nagy (2.69), Jim Abbott (2.82), Ken Hill (2.82) and Sid Fernandez (2.95). (Thanks Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites like the Phillies with a money line of -175 to -250, after allowing four runs or less in four straight games, against opponent after a loss by four runs or more. In the last five years this system is 51-10, 83.6 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) The Philadelphia Eagles are 9-0-1 ATS in Week 2 of the preseason under coach Andy Reid.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal is another one of his hot streaks (17-5) and is never afraid to ride a hot club and comes right back with the Angels to topple the Tribe.

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Football Wagering Returns Tonight

The second week of the NFL Preseason gets underway with a pair of contests involving mostly elite teams. The headliner will be Philadelphia at Indianapolis, which is a Fox Sports telecast, with New England hosting Cincinnati in the other ballgame. This is often a solid wagering week, as coaches start to really formulate what kind of squad they will put together. Teams coming off losing efforts typically want to rebound, while clubs that won might be inclined to let up a bit and don’t give best efforts.

The Eagles are one such team that is tastier than a Philly cheesesteak in Week 2 of the preseason. Coach Andy Reid is in his 11th season in the City of Brotherly Love and doesn’t place much stock in August football. This is preparation time and his goal is to put together the most talented roster he can, with hopes of winning NFC East and returning to Super Bowl.

In the first game, Reid is reviewing as many players as possible and winning is an afterthought as six consecutive losses (0-6 ATS) prove. However, Reid isn’t foolish and has picked his spots, just like the man he worked under, Mike Holmgren did at Green Bay and Seattle. Reid has shown proclivity of wanting to win off first preseason loss and the Eagles are 7-3, with outstanding 9-0-1 ATS record this week, which includes 5-0 SU and ATS run since 2004.

Indianapolis is an established power in the AFC, yet having a new head coach does bring change. The Colts are notoriously poor preseason team, with 3-16 record and 5-13-1 ATS mark since 2005. Among the questions about Indianapolis, would new coach Jim Caldwell run a different camp than his predecessor Tony Dungy or would preparing for the regular season still be tantamount? The early answer suggests more of the same, with Colts totaling dismal 142 yards of offense last week in 13-3 loss to Minnesota. Without Jim Sorgi as backup quarterback, the fall is precipitous after Peyton Manning, with Curtis Painter and Chris Crane.

Bookmaker.com oddsmakers know these facts and have established Philadelphia as three-point road favorites with total of 36. Indianapolis is just 1-8 on home turf with 1-7-1 ATS mark; however they are 11-2 ATS after a loss by 10 or more points. The action starts at 8 Eastern and Michael Vick is not expected to even make the trip for Philly, making it less a story this week.

Thirty minutes earlier in the New England area, the Patriots welcome the Bengals. Tom Brady will look to continue his recovery process, this time in front of the home folks. The former Michigan man was 10 of 15 for 100 yards with two touchdowns and an interception and showed little rust. He’ll be matched against a Cincinnati defense not known for stopping the run or the pass.

The line on this encounter has moved significantly, with Cincy signal caller Carson Palmer unlikely to see the field after suffering a moderate high ankle sprain in 17-7 loss to New Orleans. New England opened as 4.5-point favorite and the swiftly moved to a touchdown choice. The injury means extensive playing time for backups J.T. O'Sullivan and Carson’s brother Jordan Palmer.

New England is 21-13 ATS as preseason chalk and they are 10-2 against the spread at home after one or more consecutive straight up wins under Bill Belichick. For underdog players, the most encouraging news is the Pats fit a negative system that states to play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games, off a road win. Teams in this spot are 5-20 ATS, winning by 2.8 points per game.

Trying to stay hot (even in Phoenix) on a Wednesday

A sweet 3-0 day helps building our momentum. Today’s Best System is 88.8 percent, but could be nerve-racking with pitching matchup. Top Trend looks like blowout, will it be? Sal is on another sensational role; check his Best Bet for Wednesday. Good Luck

What I found today – http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/9956006/The-world-according-to-Favre

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more who are hitting .200 or worse over their last three games, against opponent with a torrid starting pitcher with WHIP of 1.000 or less the last five times he toed the slap. This will be intriguing with Lee and Haren, but system shows 40-5 record since 2005 and suggests play against the Snakes.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 12-1 in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20, winning by 2.8 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal was 3-1 yesterday including another winner here. Today he expects the Angels to be heavenly, even in Cleveland.

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System Play has Nats in nasty spot

The Washington Nationals are like the dimmest bulb on a set of outdoor lights, they standout for not shining brightly. While the Nationals have a comfortable lead as the worst team in baseball with 43-76 record (-24.1 units), they do deserve props for playing like paid professionals and not throwing in the towel. Even with last night’s loss, Washington has won eight of 12, thanks to a potent offense that has average 6.6 runs per game, compared to season average of 4.5 runs per contest.

In spite of playing better baseball, the Nationals have earned their stripes as the worst team in the game. Washington has the highest earned run average in the National League at 4.98. When the starting pitchers fail, which is often the case, a collection of less than desirable relievers take their place, with an even worse ERA (5.07). Washington’s non-starters have brought little relief as 17-33 record proves and the recent spike in run production has helped the closers get over the .500 mark (.533) since the first week of the season.

The Nats were 4-3 losers to Colorado last night in Game 1 of the series and will face the ace of the Rockies staff, Jason Marquis (13-8, 3.55 ERA). The veteran right-hander has embraced pitching for Colorado and has spearheaded a staff which has contributed mightily to the Rockies leading the wild card race in the senior circuit, while within striking distance of the division leading Los Angeles Dodgers.

Colorado (66-53, +10.6 units) is giving no indication of fading away, winning seven of last 11 and continuing to play surprisingly well on the road with 34-30 record, despite a team batting average of .238.

Colorado is 30-14 (+21.5 Units) against the money line after three or more consecutive road games this season and will face starter Collin Balester (1-2, 6.00), who has been allowing the long ball early and often. The rookie right-hander has surrendered three homers and five runs in each of his last two outings. Washington comes into this contest 13-34 revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last two seasons.

If this doesn’t sound like a great situation for Washington, it’s not and Colorado is a -160 money line favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com. Here is the situation the Nationals face tonight.

Play Against home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, who are ordinary offensive team scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs per game, against a good NL starter (ERA of 3.70 or less), after a loss by two runs or less.

This system has been a reliable winner for a dozen years at 52-14, 78.8 percent. For the most part, these games have not been close, opening the door for potential run line action, with a score differential 2.6 runs. Take a closer look at this contest, the odds lineup in the bettor’s favor on the road favorite.

Inside the mind of Professional Sports Bettor

Fezzik is a professional gambler living in Las Vegas. He’s made a name for himself winning the 2008 Hilton Super Contest with 67.5 percent record against the spread on 85 wagers. Last year he also finished second in college football in Leroy’s contest, with 53-31 ATS record. He’s a featured guest on many Vegas sports betting shows since arriving in Sin City and has joined forces with Anthony Curtis at LVASports.com, which is populated by many of the industry's top gambling professionals. We sat down with Fezzik and picked his brain.


Doug Upstone: You are a highly acclaimed professional gambler, explain what that means?

Fezzik: What it means is you make you living by winning at gambling. I would call myself an “advantage player”. I will also play poker and blackjack, anything I can get an advantage at. Primarily its sports betting, that’s the most lucrative.

DU: With the football season fast approaching, explain your typical work week schedule in terms of preparation?

Fezzik: For me, you have to start on Sunday evening. Most professional gamblers I know are betting the halftime numbers on the late games and are preparing for opening numbers. For the very best players, there is no time to rest, they are not watching games to see how their bets turn out, though they may have them on, they are focused on the opening lines for the following week.

They are making their numbers for the following week on college and NFL games, so they are ready to bet as soon as the lines come up on Sunday afternoon. Because of their skill, they are able to get some really sharp bets. These bettors are not looking for in-depth analysis; they are searching for oddsmakers mistakes. They are looking for numbers they know are off by two points. Any number that is off by two or more points and they think is obvious that anybody who does serious work in studying numbers, they will just fire (bet), even if the limits are low. They are going to hit what they see as mistakes.

On Monday, they are looking at props for Monday Night Football, looking to play a middle if available or fading a public move on the side or total.

Myself, on Monday I start breaking down totals on college football for the following week, since those numbers don’t come until Tuesday.

Starting on Tuesday, everything to this point has just been my opinion. I will meet with a group of sharp bettors in Las Vegas and kick around thoughts and ideas, often focusing in on certain games and possible player injuries. This is the more intense handicapping day. If we are all in agreement, I’ll shop for the best number and bet more on that game.

Wednesday is supposed to be an off day, but it seldom is, even if the lines have stabilized by this point. It’s fairly typical for me to work until 3 in the morning Monday night and get up at 7AM on Tuesday. I try and sleep in on Wednesday’s to prevent further sleep deprivation. Wednesday is usually date night and Thursday I return to handicapping looking for more particular advantages. I should add, in between I make any number of bets on games, be it sides or totals. Thursday my attention shifts to the various contests I entered and study the lines for what I might play. For me Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are similar.

DU: In summation, you look to attack weak numbers early and if drastic changes occur, you will address those situations if they arise?

Fezzik: Exactly. Thursday is real good for checking weather reports, if I already like an Under and adverse weather is a possibility, I’ll fire on a game that coincides with my number at current value. I won’t play an Under because of bad weather if my numbers come out higher to start.

DU: What led you to this lifestyle?

Fezzik: Always a math geek, always good at numbers and probabilities, forecasts. I view it as day trading; it’s really the same as trading on the stock market, with the exception it’s probably easier to win at this.

DU: Would you recommend this to others?

Fezzik: No. Unless you are really good at math. Most people are not very good at math and those that are move on to make really good money at other lines of work.

DU: What does a professional gambler do for fun?

Fezzik: What’s nice about being a professional gambler is you can always gamble for fun. When I’m running around I might play in poker tournament that isn’t high stakes. I might enter a $100.00 poker tournament, just to play live poker, that’s fun. I like casinos, I like hanging out in sportsbooks.

I do like to go hiking up Mt. Charleston here in Vegas, which is almost 12,000 feet. It’s great to go to Lee Canyon, which is about 9,000 feet. I was there recently and it was 80 degrees, when it was 115 degrees in Vegas. I’ll try to shoot out to Shakespearean festival in Southern Utah before the season starts. I like to play golf, though I’m not very good at it. Golf in Las Vegas is one of the best values in the summer time, playing great courses from $25.00.

DU: If you weren’t a professional gambler, what would you be doing?

Fezzik: I’m pretty sure I’d be in the financial services arena, probably pricing variable annuities or being a bond trader.

DU: Do you have a preference of college or pro football?

Fezzik: I like pro football better, but I was forced to focus on college football more, since the numbers are weaker and it’s easier to beat them. The marketplace dictates the college numbers are more beatable.

DU: Where have you found the greatest opportunities in sports wagering, sides or totals?

Fezzik: The totals are easily the weaker market. The average football better wagers less than $500.00 a game. Why would they bother to beat the most difficult thing to beat, NFL sides, instead of betting college totals? The answer is they are not very good at it as recreational players.

If you told me I could only bet $500.00 a game, I’d go bet WNBA totals and college basketball totals, clearly, which are easier to beat. The frustration is if I want to bet $2,000 on college basketball total, I might have to drive to four places, which is very difficult. The great advantage of betting a NFL side, I can wager $10,000 on a single bet at one location. If you are truly good at wagering in the NFL, you can bet your opinions forcefully and with volume.

DU: What are some of your favorite wagers for the upcoming season?

Fezzik: Do you want the ones still available or the ones that are long gone?

DU: You decide.

Fezzik: I got Seattle at +275 to win the NFC West. Denver and Tampa Bay are both likely to stink this year. If you were able to play Denver at Un7.5 this year, you have a tremendous bet. You have a good bet at U7 and a marginal bet at U6.5 wins and anything less than that is probably a bad bet. Tampa Bay Un7 is great bet; Un6.5 is good bet and Un6, garbage. It’s hard for people to hear that. They wonder how can it be a great bet at Un7 and be a terrible bet Un6? I tell them, it’s worth 100 cents to move one point on a an NFL total, if I told you a baseball team was a great bet at +200 but a bad bet at +100, you would nod your head and say that makes sense.

DU: The Florida Gators are ranked number one and the defending champions. They also have what appears to be a favorable schedule. Do you see them going unbeaten and finishing No.1 again or who else do you like?

Fezzik: Florida is the clear favorite and a monster with Tim Tebow back along with 11 defensive starters. If you give me the field against Florida, I’d take the field. In reviewing the numbers, Florida has about a 38 percent chance of winning the national championship, which is huge number. If I had to do a forecast, I’d say they would win 11 games. LSU has them at home on October 10th, which would seem the game the Gators could fall, but it will be tough to trip them up.

DU: Should the average football bettor be aggressive to start the season or be more cautious?

Fezzik: This is one of my pet peeves, since all the experts say to start slow. In my opinion, that is terrible advice. The very best wagers are made in May for the upcoming football season. The people that do their homework early and quickly, make bets like Broncos and Bengals as Pick (now Bengals -3), which is just a sick bet. That doesn’t guarantee a win, but you won’t find a better play for a variety of reasons. I see this closing at Bengals -3.5.

Last year in Week 5 on Sunday night, Pittsburgh was getting 5.5 points at Jacksonville and +6 was available at different outlets. Clearly, that is going to be a better bet than anything you find Week 10. Earlier in the year, the numbers are much further off then later in the year. For those waiting for perfect information, comes perfect lines or very tight lines. Your largest wagers should come early in the year, if you are prepared. And I don’t know any professional gambler that would disagree with that.

DU: Based on your accomplishments, what advice would you pass along to any sports bettor to give them the best chance to win?

Fezzik: I would simulate the first 200 bets and track how you are doing before betting. Keep track if you are winning or losing and write down why you would have made the bet. Next if you want to bet, I would bet peanuts; way less than you think you should bet. If you can have access to advantage player, I would frequent forums that cater to gaining knowledge. In blackjack, BJ21com, Stanford Wong’s website. I’m biased toward LVASports.com, where I’m a moderator on Anthony Curtis’ website. SharpSportsBetting.com and EOG.com are other great sites to go and ask questions and learn.

It’s hard to determine who knows what they are talking about and who doesn’t. Don’t confuse the vast majority of the touts with a professional gambler. For the most part, handicappers can be successful, but they can’t share the great expertise and teach you anything.

A great example of this is touts have their Game of the Year late in the season, when as I just explained, some of the best opportunities are early in the year. They would never think to have a Game of the Year the first few weeks of the season, because they believe this would make them look foolish.

DU: The cappers that have Game of the Year’s early end up having eight or 10, to keep the customer on the hook.

Fezzik: I like John Kelly’s advise which is “listen to everyone, follow know one”. Do your research, listen to what people like and why and go back and do more research.

DU: I think too frequently everyone is looking for the “hot guy”, whether they are a handicapper or somebody on winning streak in a forum. These guys tend to dry up in time.

Fezzik: A one year record is totally irrelevant to me. Give me someone’s five-year record or lifetime record that’s what’s really significant. Take a coin and flip it 80 times and you’ll be shocked how often you get 50 tails and 30 heads.

I wanted to emphasize this, I hear all the time, “this is the right side or the wrong side of a game”. Every game has a right side for both teams if you give me the right number. Not long ago I liked Winnipeg and Calgary Under 51 points in Canadian Football, but give me 48, sure I’d play Over, since I think the number should be 49.5. I can’t stand when people say “this is the right side of the game”. That is almost never the case. You give me enough points and I’ll take the lesser team in the right value spot.

DU: Do you play many parlays yourself?

Fezzik: There are three reasons to play parlays. Reason One- You are laying less than a $1.10 on each progressive side. Standard odds on a parlay are betting 5 to win 13 on a two-team parlay. If you win more than 13, you are effectively laying less than a $1.10 on each individual bets. You find a book that pays 14 to 5 on two-teamer, you would be playing badly not to be playing parlay. Why not play less than $1.10 if you are going to bet a lot of games?

Reason Two – If there is a correlation. An obvious correlation would be big favorites -200 or higher.

Reason Three – To circumvent the limits at a sportsbook. If you have $500 limit, you could parlay few games and parlay $300 bets and next think you know you have $1,100 in action. That’s an excellent reason to play parlays.

One thing I read is authors saying “If you hit 55 percent, your return on investment is higher playing parlays”. It’s a correct statement, but you won’t be making more money betting parlays, instead you should be betting more on straight bets.

DU: Anything else you would like to add?

Fezzik: Advantage players like me have different perspective on how to bet sports. If a person is wagering for recreational purposes, betting their own money and having fun doing what they want to do, that’s all good.

DU: Great insights, I appreciate it.

Fezzik: Thanks, Doug it’s been fun.

Let's Rock

Good comeback from Sunday with 2-0 day. Today we are back to three plays and Sal has his Free Pick which was a winner on Monday. The Top Trend follows a certain Red Sox hurler and the Best System has to with a particular pitcher on a day of the week. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday – The San Diego Padres scored four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning and beat the Chicago Cubs 4-1 on Monday night. It's the fourth time this season that San Diego won a game that it trailed entering the ninth inning, tying the highest such total in the major leagues. (Thanks, Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Oakland with a money line of +150 or more, with a starting pitcher who gives up seven or more hits a start, playing on Tuesday. Not sure what the day of the week has to do with this, but 58-12, 82.9 percent isn’t anything to ignore.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Josh Beckett and the Boston Red Sox are 14-1 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 over the last two seasons, winning by 3.8 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal was correct here yesterday and is 11-4 since Friday and views Florida as the right team to humiliate Houston.

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L.A. favored over soaring Redbirds

Last night’s St. Louis and Los Angeles contest had all the drama and intensity of a playoff game, with the Cardinals coming out on top 3-2 as -160 money line road favorites behind Chris Carpenter. This evening, the roles will be reversed, with the Dodgers the larger favorite and trying to find magic formula that worked earlier this season.

The Dodgers (70-49, +11.2 units) have lost seven of 10 games, seeing their lead in the NL West dwindle to 4.5-games and now have the same amount of losses as Philadelphia in the National League, jeopardizing their hold of the best record in the senior circuit.

It’s been an impotent offense that has hurt the Dodgers. Take away the two nine run explosions that resulted in victories and L.A. has totaled 20 runs in the other eight games (2.5 runs per outing). Matters have been made worse with starting pitchers being mildly ineffective and injuries creeping up.

Tonight’s starter, Chad Billingsley (11-6, 3.73 ERA) hasn’t pitched in 11 days due to left hamstring strain and will have to be watched cautiously. Billingsley hasn’t had much success against St. Louis with 0-2 record, with a 5.23 ERA in four starts, including being rocked for six runs and walking six in 5 2/3 innings of a 10-0 Redbirds whitewashing. The Dodgers have lost Billingsley’s last four home starts against teams with winning record.

St. Louis (68-52, +6.2 units) is making all those trade deadline pickups work and has won nine of last 10 contests. Manager Tony LaRussa’s offense has been improved with Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa, however the pitching has been brilliant in allowing just over three runs per game during this stretch.

It was evident in last night’s contest the confidence the Cardinals are playing with and tonight’s starter Mitchell Boggs (1-1, 3.78) has given the Cards a chance to win. Though he was roughed in suffering first loss of the season last week against Cincinnati, the 25-year old right-hander has kept his team in the game and they have won five of his six starts in 2009. Boggs would become a permanent part of the rotation, but as has been the case in the past, 20 walks in just over 33 innings has made him less than trustworthy.

The Dodgers are 12-3 revenging a one run loss this season and sports bettors have moved them from -160 money line favorites at Bookmaker.com to -180, with the total Un8.5. L.A. has won 60 of last 86 games as a home favorite and is 12-4 OVER after allowing four runs or less four straight games this season.

St. Louis is decided underdog, yet is 14-3 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 and has the same record when they have on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games this season.

This battle of division leaders is set for 7:10 Pacific and is available for viewing in local markets and the Cards are 16-6 UNDER after a win by two runs or less this season.

Monday wagering offerings

Offered up a rotten 0-2 day, yet still had very good week and have 192-135-3 record since the first part of April for 58.7 percent. Today we have excellent Top Trend in the Windy City. Sal is back off a hot weekend for Free Play and though we lack official Best System, found the best on the board for today. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday – Tiger Woods is human after all. Did you get the impression like I did he was trying too hard.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like San Diego, with miserable offense (4.1 or less runs per game), against a good NL starting pitcher with ERA of 3.70 or less, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game. This unofficial play is 133-38, 77.8 percent, however has been quite good this season at 22-5.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Mark Buehrle and the Chicago White Sox are 21-2 in home games vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season. (Sox Record)

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal nailed 9-3 in all sports since Friday and likes the Cards and Chris Carpenter to dodge defeat against the Dodgers.

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The Texas Rangers are what?

One of the more unusual aspects of the 2009 baseball season has been the play of the Texas Rangers and not for the typical reasons many would consider. The Rangers are still within striking distance of the Los Angeles Angels for the lead in the AL West and are running neck and neck with Boston for the wild card after sweeping them at home this past weekend. What makes this Texas team absolutely crazy is how they have evolved against the oddsmakers totals.

After years of being a high scoring club that more resembled a top level slow-pitch softball team the way they could score runs, these Rangers are fairly pedestrian 12th in Major League Baseball at 4.8 runs per game.

The shocker is the pitching. Having played seven more home games than road games to date this season, Texas is sixth in runs allowed at (that is SIXTH, like in 7-1= 6) 4.3 runs per game. While most Rangers fans only dreamed of ever seeing competent big league pitching, manager Ron Washington actually has them performing it, which is about as likely as daytime high of 70 with low humidity in the middle of August in Dallas-Fort Worth area.

With a slightly above average offense and a pitching staff taking this team places it has never seen, Texas has confounded oddmakers and bettors alike. Texas is the top Under team in baseball by a large margin at 73-39-4. If you analyzed the standings of the top Under teams in baseball like the regular baseball standings, the Rangers would have a lead similar to the Yankees, 7.5 games clear of the second place Chicago White Sox, who is 67-48-3 Under this season.

What has accounted for this change in Texas baseball? Rest assured the skipper Washington wished he had more offense, it just hasn’t happened. The Rangers Ballpark at Arlington is still the same; short fences in the power alleys will still surrender an ample amount of home runs, with the Rangers second in baseball to the Yankees. However, when you look at the hitting numbers, they don’t add up like prior years. Michael Young is still Michael Young, hitting well over .300, but he’s the only starter even close. Second baseman Ian Kinsler and Hank Blalock are closer to the Mendoza-line (.200 batting average) than to batting .300. Josh Hamilton’s off-season indiscretions aside, he’s a mere shell of the player who was a true All-Star in 2008, currently with eight homers and 40 runs batted in.

In 2009, this Rangers club is built around pitching (obviously that rings of an oxymoron) and its new philosophy. President Nolan Ryan didn’t want any more coddling of pitchers; he wants them to be a man like he was. Pitch counts are for wusses, throw strikes and have fielders take care of the rest.

Consider these un-Rangers’ like numbers. In the American League, Texas is 3rd in ERA and WHIP, and 5th in batting average allowed and on-base percentage allowed. Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson lead a bullpen that has converted 35 of 44 save attempts, among the best in baseball. Plus, collectively, the bullpen has a rare better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Though it takes getting used, at almost three-quarters of the way thru the season, Texas is Under team and it’s not a fluke. This is supported by 39-19-3 Under record at home, 29-11-2 Under record versus left-hand starters and 37-19-2 Under mark as a favorite.

Our sitting president talked a year ago about change, the Texas Rangers represent one of the biggest changes in baseball in 2009, being a decided Under team.

August 16 at 3Daily Winners

An extra inning defeat kept us from perfection again, however two out three isn’t shabby. Today have a sparkling system that is 93 percent and perfect in 2009. Top Trend follows one of the Bay Area teams. Free Play now available. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday – Jonathan Broxton is one of the hardest throwers in baseball, however his fastball tends to straighten out the harder he throws. My daughter and I were getting ready to leave with the Dodgers ahead 3-1 in the bottom of the ninth with one out and Mark Reynolds up. I told her I would challenge Reynolds mano-a-mano and let the best man win, but on the first pitch throw him curve ball to change his viewpoint. Instead, Reynolds is sitting dead red and Broxton throws into his comfort zone and crushes it to straight away center, now 3-2. I told her Miguel Montero is a threat for home run (11 on the year) but only if your him pitch middle in and low. What does Broxton do, game tied 3-3 and Arizona goes on to win in 10 innings. If I understand this, why doesn’t Broxton or catcher Brad Asmus?

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a molten starting pitcher, who has WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This system is 66-5, 93 percent, including perfect 8-0 this season. Play against Pittsburgh.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Oakland A’s are 2-13 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) this season losing by 2.2 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Mark of the LCC, smells a Yankees sweep in Seattle.

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