Big Super Saturday and your thoughts requested

A dandy of a 4-0 day should put a smile on everyone’s face. Found a MLB system that is 21-5 this year alone. The Top Trend is perfect and in afternoon action. Slick Rick’s Free Play goes for four in a row. Good Luck

What I thought about yesterday – This whole Mike Vick thing has me confused. On one hand he served hard time, which pays his debt to the courts, but what about society? Is a person that drowns and hangs dogs really mentally right? Oh sure he could play football, but people that are considered crazy do sick things like that. Don’t bring up the Stallworth deal either, it is completely different. Though he was over the drinking limit, he hit someone who was walking illegally and Florida attorney’s agreed that proving him guilty would have been 50-50 at best. Yes, somebody died, but Stallworth can NEVER legally drive again, period. Let me know what you think.

In case you haven’t heard, the first one is out – Better hide your beagle, Michael Vick’s an Eagle.
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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like San Diego with a money line of +100 or higher who are nasty offensive team scoring 4.1 runs a game or less, against a solid NL starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or lower), with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game. In 2009, this system is 21-5, 80.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Chicago Cubs are 11-0 at Wrigley Field after scoring eight runs or more this season, winning by 3.2 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick betting the Mets use the cain against the Giants and Matt Cain for the win.

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In Search of Fruitful Friday

Just missed on 3-0 day when Calgary gave up late score and lost, failing to cover. Still will take 2-1 day and let’s find some more winners. Have an 82.5 percent system that offers two selections today. The Top Trend is near perfect on the team and city that loves its coffee and clouds. Slick Rick goes for third straight winner, this time in the NFL with Free Pick. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – The Phillies won all three games of their series against the Cubs in Chicago this week. It was the Phillies' first sweep in a series of three-or-more games at the "Friendly Confines" since June 1984, when they swept a four-game set. This was the third time that a visiting team went at least 25 years between series sweeps of three-or-more games at Wrigley Field. The Braves went 26 seasons without one, from 1916, when the Cubs began playing at their current home, through 1941, and the Phillies had another drought that extended over 27 seasons (1923-1949). (Thanks, Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing 10 runs or more. This would mean going against Pittsburgh and San Diego for a system that is 113-24, 82.5 percent, including 10-2 in 2009.

Free Baseball Trend -2) We’ve used this one before, however it keeps winning, thus why not. The Seattle Mariners are 1-13 after a loss by eight runs or more, falling by 2.6 runs on average in next encounter.

Free Football Pick -3) Off yesterday’s winner, Slick Rick has more courage than I and is betting Minnesota at -1 over the Colts.

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Topics from The House of Sports

Philly Shows The Love

Former Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden, Tony Kornheiser’s replacement in the ESPN Monday Night Football broadcast booth, had his debut upstaged at last night’s Arizona-Pittsburgh game by breaking news that the Philadelphia Eagles had signed QB Michael Vick to a one-year deal with an option for a second year. Once the highest-paid player in the NFL, Vick’s well-documented fall from grace following his conviction on dog-fighting charges came to an end on July 27 when Commissioner Roger Goodell conditionally lifted his suspension. Since then, there’s been a media feeding frenzy over where or if Vick would be an object of interest for any team this season. Former Eagles QB Ron Jaworski, who shares MNF analyst duties with Gruden, was seemingly aghast over the hire. “What are they thinking?” sputtered Jaworski. “What is going through Donovan McNabb’s mind right now?” Gruden then responded with the evening’s best zinger when he declared, “Jaws, I know why you’re so upset. You think Michael Vick is gonna head right into Philadelphia and sell more #7 jerseys in one season than you did in your entire career!” Gruden then offered a classy “welcome back” to the former Atlanta QB, stating that Vick had accepted responsibility for his actions, served his sentence and was following the proper channels to revive his career. We couldn’t agree more…

Bronson Speaks

USA Today Sports currently features an interesting profile of Cincinnati pitcher Bronson Arroyo. According to the post, Arroyo dips into a grab-bag of pills and supplements on a daily basis – despite the fact that some of them could trigger a positive test under baseball’s current drug policy. “A lot of guys in the locker room think I’m out of my mind because I’m taking a lot of things not on the (MLB-approved) list,” Arroyo says. “I take 10 to 12 different things a day, and on the days I pitch, there’s four more things. But I haven’t failed any tests, so I figure I’m good.” And regarding media reaction to the seemingly endless hoopla over performance-enhancing drugs, Arroyo is equally outspoken. “As far as looking at Manny Ramirez like he’s Ted Bundy, that’s crazy. At the end of the day, you think anybody really cares whether Manny Ramirez’s kidneys fail and he dies at 50? People just want to see their team win games. Then they go home and have a cookout with the family. No big deal.” Bronson apparently took the proper supplements last night: he pitched a complete game, two-hit shutout in a 7-0 win over Washington. Better living through chemistry!

Rebel Rousers

No doubt about it… the Ole Miss Rebels are the media darlings of the 2009 college football season. Mississippi was the only team to beat BCS Champ Florida last year (in The Swamp, no less!) and closed out the season with a 6-game win streak that included a sound beating of Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. Ranked #10 in the initial USA Today coaches’ preseason poll, Ole Miss now faces a challenge from which few have emerged unscathed – breaking the Sports Illustrated Cover Jinx! Yes, QB Jevan Snead and C Daverin Geralds are featured on the cover of SI’s SEC preview issue, one of four national covers currently being circulated. Will the Rebs be able to handle their overnight success or will they fall victim to The Curse? Las Vegas thinks they have a good shot at staying in the limelight, tabbing the Ole Miss Over/Under for season wins at 9 games.

Courtesy of the House of Sports.

Thursday Thrills

I’m sorry about the lateness of Free Play, just screwed up. At least it was a winner giving us official 2-0 day (system was also correct). Slick Rick has another Free Play already posted. The Top Trend is in football and the Best System is a Totals Play at over 80 percent. Good Luck

Now off to do a little OTB today.

What I learned yesterday – The L.A. Angels came from behind to defeat the Rays, 10-5, marking the 18th time this season that Mike Scioscia's team has produced a double-digit runs total. That's the highest total for any major-league team this season (the Rays, the Rockies and the Phillies all have 16 such games), after the Angels produced only 12 games of 10-or-more runs all last season. (Thanks, Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY UNDER on all teams against the total who are good NL offensive team like Philadelphia, scoring five or more runs per game, against a decent starting pitcher with ERA of 3.70 to 4.20, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out five or more batters per start. Since 2007 this system is 29-7, 80.5 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) OK, I’m having a little fun here, but don’t back off, since in Canadien football, Calgary is 7-0 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, winning by more than a touchdown per game. (I’m betting this game, you should too, don’t be a hoser!)

Free Baseball Selection -3) No waiting today, bright and early, with Slick Rick expecting the Phillies to fluster the Cubs.

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Preseason NFL Wagering Tips

The NFL Preseason gives sports bettors their first shot at getting back into to the game they are so passionate about. The SportsCenter highlights and countless team reports being blogged with up to the minute information has the football bettor foaming at the mouth to make first game wager. Never mind the fact that most of the teams don’t truly care whether they win or lose, it’s about getting ready for the regular season. With that thought in mind, nobody bets to lose, so like any other investment plan, it helps to have a strategy, do your homework, and be disciplined in your approach to betting the NFL preseason. This article is designed to map out a game plan of specific tactics that have been successful over the years.

Obviously the game is different in the preseason. The most important thing to always remember is NEVER handicap the games using regular season strategies. Often, preseason lines may be set by the public’s perception of a team’s chances for regular season, but this only serves to trap the uninformed bettor. Use statistics and trends that represent a team’s or coaches past preseason performances. Anything else is a mistake in my less than humble opinion. Once you’re comfortable with a place to get your stats and trends from, utilize these following general week-by-week strategies to build your bankroll for the NFL season, which will be here in a matter of time.

Pre-Preseason

Just like in the regular season, it is important to know your NFL teams. I am not talking about reading hours of information about every given team, rather to know the coaches and the tendencies of the teams. Coaching blunders and superior game plans can alter the outcomes of contests during the regular season. A missed tackle by the opposition or unexpected turnovers can change the final score, no matter what a coach does. In the preseason, a coach can directly impact the scoreboard by substitution patterns and what his goal is for the team beforehand. Throughout the internet or in many preseason publications, interesting fact-based cold data is available for you to learn from. For example, New Orleans is harrowing favorite at 11-22 ATS, yet is quite profitable 29-18 ATS as an underdog. Take a look at a team like Jacksonville who wears the underdog hat comfortably at 16-7-1 ATS.

Week 1 - Know your Coaches

This is extremely important if you have a desire to have extra money before the regular season starts. Be assured all the oddsmakers know these numbers also, it is your duty as well if you expect to profit. Coach Bill Belichick has always placed a strong emphasis on winning period. The Patriots are 21-13 ATS as favorites and 12-4 against the spread as home faves versus incoming teams with losing records. New England is 5-1 ATS the first week of preseason, as Belichick wants the hard work of training camp to pay off for the players as an immediate benefit.

Philadelphia’s Andy Reid is big on preparation when it counts and uses a different approach. The Eagles are 14-26 SU under Reid in the during exhibition encounters with 19-21 ATS record. What is noteworthy about following Philly is they have lost and failed to cover last five opening preseason games. Reid has used this time wisely to evaluate his large squad and is not bothered by the outcome. He in turn uses the loss as motivational tool and is 5-0 SU and ATS in week 2.

Another important factor is first year coaches. This year we have eight coaches that are taking over new teams and two others that were mid-season replacements running their first camps. Not one is a retread, meaning they all have to earn the players respect and vise-versa. After going through grueling training camps, each coach will want to prove to his players that the work has been worth the trouble. Nothing pays off like winning. Historically, these coaches can bring a nice profit. However, with so many coaches with new teams it would appear very difficult to make a profit because of the volume of games.

The potential path of least resistance would be to Play On first time head coaches (When not matched against other teams with same circumstance), coaching teams off bad season or seasons, when facing veteran or playoff teams. These new head masters will want to make a strong impression and establish credibility. Their job is to show the team who is boss, the direction is correct and the right players will be on board to make it happen. As baseball manager Casey Stengel once said “We’ll win soon, just not with these players.”

Oakland’s Tom Cable and San Francisco’s Mike Singletary started to set the wheels in motion as replacements last season, however will want to place a stamp on what they expect. Jim Mora Jr. and Jim Caldwell were part of succession planning at respective franchises and this makes their situation a tougher call.

Week 2 - Be ready to pounce

This is one of the two weeks you can really take advantage of the lines and make large profits with proper preparation. The most important factors this week are prior performance and motivation. These are largely tied together of which you can take advantage. I’ve already made mention of how Philadelphia fits into a week like this and Minnesota is another example for last season. The Vikings were awful in losing first game at home to Seattle, 34-17 as three-point favorites. After a week of Brad Childress cracking the whip, Minnesota was at Baltimore for next contest, which was off win over New England. The Vikes gave a much more focused performance and whipped the Ravens 23-15, catching a point.

Another example from 2008 was New Orleans, which fits the mold. The Saints started with a crisp 24-10 effort at Arizona, on the receiving end of a couple of points. They returned home maybe a little satisfied, maybe Sean Payton lightened the reins and with a total of 36 set, New Orleans lost a 31-27 shootout. With how long training camp is to the players, a coach can’t pound on them every day, thus all teams will have flat spots after solid efforts. Show me a coach that wants to go undefeated in August and I’ll show you a team with a losing record in early January.

This time around, be sure to watch for teams that may have put up less than admirable efforts in the first week, and grab those that you feel will be better motivated for week two outing.

Week 3 –Dress Rehearsal

Previously, the last week of the preseason was the time when teams played the starters at least two-thirds of the game, to give the coaches a real sense of where the team was and if they were on schedule. Because of the number of injuries that occur, Week 3 has become the important week to gauge each club’s progress. Many of the same principles still apply about motivation, with a few variations of note.

The coaches and players place additional importance on this week, thus giving a good showing does matter. In the preseason, situational handicapping has relevance, especially for teams losing by 10 or more points the week before. This is noteworthy, with back-ups playing and the games should be fairly evenly matched. Once again coaches will create further accountability through motivational and psychological tactics. The 2007 campaign ended in disappointment for Green Bay in the NFC title game against eventual Super Bowl champion the New York Giants. The Brett Favre circus was just leaving town last year and the coaching staff was desperate to establish Aaron Rodgers as quarterback, after losing first two preseason games. Mike McCarthy wanted excellence from his squad and they pulled off a 27-24 upset in Denver, who has traditionally been a very good preseason squad under now former coach Mike Shanahan.

How different situations can work to your advantage is maybe the coach feels the team is coming along too fast and wants to dial it back. We all know coaches are control freaks. Coaches want to build you up to tear you down and vise-versa. In the preseason, any coach loves to put the team thru strenuous practices after a weak effort. This is part of the other aspect of analyzing situations, teams off blow-out losses. The players are sick of training camp and played poorly. The coach runs them ragged and the players want the head-man off their backs, thus they respond in a positive manner and win and cover the next game.

Week 4 – Pick your spots and be ready for the regular season

The last week of the preseason is nothing more than final preparation for most teams trying only to avoid injury and making final cuts. Under Shanahan, Denver always was strong closer, having covered last nine this week, will it continue with new coach? Marvin Lewis is on 4-0 ATS run, with Houston 0-6 ATS and Washington one behind at 0-5 against the linemaker in Week 4. It is wise to be cautious in your plays the last week. If you are having a winning preseason, a game or two that you really are sure of is worth the risk to find a couple more winners. If you are having a mediocre or below average time in picking winners before the start of the season, save your money for what you care about most, the beginning of the start of the NFL regular season. This is what you have been looking forward to anyways.

Final Thoughts

Take the time to review the box scores in the preseason. Do not do this for traditional reasons as you might believe. Looking at stats and trying to figure out your fantasy team has nothing to do with the preseason games. What this is for is future reference and the next week’s opportunity to cash with productive results. Studying can lead to insights about any team’s depth or possible motivation based on outcome. Every NFL team is going to have injuries. By reviewing the box scores this time of year, you might find a team that has built up 17-0 or 20-3 leads with the first team players in two different games and ends up losing both contests in the 2nd half. This could well be a red flag that when this team has injuries during the 16-game season, the drop-off will be precipitous.

Don’t handicap the pre-season the same as the regular season. These are truly two completely different animals. Don’t over-analyze, keep it simple. If you are going to watch these games, focus on Week 3, when it matters more to a certain degree. Most importantly, have fun and enjoy the fact that you are that much closer to September 10th, the kickoff of the regular season.

Hump Day Thought and Picks

Hurray, hurray, the string has been broken with a winning day. Yesterday’s 2-1 record was a welcome relief. The Top Trend won yesterday and we seek another winner checking up on Tigers hurler under the lights. The only qualifying system today is on Atlanta again and I don’t want to bore you with that again. Today’s Top System is non-qualifier (under 80 percent), yet is very interesting based on dynamics and 41-12 record. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – I was on the right side of Philadelphia last night, but I have to question manager Charlie Manual’s thinking. Closer Brad Lidge is an arsonist this year after brilliant 2008. The Phillies had 3-2 going into bottom of the 9th at Wrigley and he started the inning with 7.31 ERA. By August, if your closer still has ERA over 5, it’s time to look a different direction. Lidge came in and the Cubs promptly tied the score at 3-3. Lidge survived the rest of the inning, but why keep going to a pitcher who is this ineffective? I’m not sure of the logic, since he showed no loyalty to Jamie Moyer sending him to bullpen. If Lidge is Philly’s best option to close, early playoff exit for the defending champs.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON road underdogs against a 1.5 run line (Money Line =-190 to +165), averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season, after scoring and allowing six runs or more two straight games. The Houston Astros fit this profile today for a run line system that is 41-12, 77.4 percent since 1997.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Armando Galarraga and Detroit are 3-12 in night games this season, losing by 1.6 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sorry, was out this afternoon, at 4:15 MST, the Cardinals were Slick Rick's on the run line.

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Kevin O'Neill answers sports wagering issues

Lots of sports betting issues being kicked around by governments, courts, and the media right now. And those issues being raised generate a lot of questions. Let’s try to answer a few.

Q. Is Delaware set for full scale sports betting this fall?

A. It sure looks that way. The professional sports leagues had an emergency request to delay implementation of Delaware sports betting denied. They’ve appealed that ruling but it looks like Delaware sports betting is a go, at least until a December trial, where the leagues will sue to stop it.

It appears as though harness tracks Dover Downs and Harrington Raceway will be joined by thoroughbred plant Delaware Park in offering full scale sports wagering this fall. The tracks have invested millions to create sports book facilities. Vegas-style sports betting on college and pro sports kicks off on September 1st.

Q. Can anything else derail Delaware’s plan?

A. Senate Republicans Orrin Hatch of Utah and John Kyl of Arizona, longtime foes of gambling, wrote a letter to Attorney General Holder asking him to take action in Delaware. Tough to see the Obama Justice Department bending over backwards to accomodate that duo.

Q. New Jersey’s casinos can’t be happy about this, can they?

A. Not at all, this new challenge comes at a time when Atlantic City casino revenues are plummeting. There appears to be considerable momentum in the Garden State to legalize sports betting in an effort to counter Delaware’s foray into not only sports betting, but casino gambling as well. The problem is that Delaware, along with Oregon, Montana, and Nevada, is allowed to offer sports betting under federal law. When Congress banned sports betting in the US back in 1992, those four states were grandfathered, as they had all allowed sports betting in some form or fashion previously. Nevada’s offerings you’re aware of. Oregon, Montana, and Delaware’s previous offerings have all failed to stick. But those states can offer sports betting without a change in federal law. The same cannot be said for New Jersey.

Q. What about Barney Frank’s online gambling legislation?

A. Even if it passed, Frank’s legislation would not help sports bettors. It specifically exempts sports betting, and like-minded legislation by Senator Menendez introduced more recently covers only poker.

Q. What’s so special about poker, and why is poker being treated differently than sports betting?

A. Follow the money. The poker sites poured a bunch of money into lobbying and marketed it beautifully, making it look like a grassroots effort by enlisting the support of poker players all over the web. Hiring former Senator from New York Alfonse D’Amato as spokesman/lobbyist was a shrewd move. Meanwhile, the NFL has spent boatloads of money lobbying against sports betting. There’s no similar organized effort for sports betting.

This is from Sports and Gaming from Kevin O'Neill, who operates Real World Sports.

Let's knock'em dead Tuesday

Just having a heck of time digging up winners after 1-2 day. Maybe Matt of the LCC can change our luck with Free Play. The D-Backs have found a winning combination in second half the year in Top Trend and MLB System has raked in a lot of cash at 86.9 percent. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday - Edwin Jackson's streak of 16 consecutive starts allowing three or fewer earned runs in each game came to an end when he allowed four earned runs in four innings to the Red Sox Monday night. Over the last 60 years, the only other Tigers starters with a streak of starts allowing three or fewer earned runs as long as Jackson's were Mickey Lolich (16 in 1969) and Jack Morris (19 in 1983).

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like Atlanta, who are averaging 0.9 or less home runs a game on the season, after a win by six runs or more. Teams in this high a price range are proven winners (53-8, 86.9 percent) despite not having powerful offense.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Arizona is 10-1 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of this season, winning by 2.1 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Matt of the LLC passed on baseball yesterday, but was 7-0 over the past weekend. He’ll back the Brewers to fry the Friars in Milwaukee.

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Ten College Football Bets to Consider in 2009

When the college football schedules were officially released, it is a terrific time to go through the various leagues and forecast what the potentially lucrative spots are to profit from. The factors may include revenge, scheduling and look-aheads. Here is ten specific dates on the calendar which are worthy of consideration for wagers.

September 3
South Carolina at N. C. State

North Carolina State closed the 2008 regular season with four wins to earn bowl berth, before falling 29-23 to an equally hot Rutgers club in the Papajohns.com bowl. Coach Tom O’Brien’s disciplined style started to take root and 15 starters are coming back from last year’s turnaround squad. The Wolfpack were embarrassed 34-0 at South Carolina last year and have return engagement in Raleigh this go-round. The Gamecocks lost a number of talented defenders and last year’s offense was a mess, rushing for just 94.1 yards per game. This matchup will once again be on ESPN and coach Steve Spurrier is only 7-7 ATS in non-conference games and has usual early date with Georgia next on Sept. 12. South Carolina is 2-7-1 ATS facing non-conference foes before the Bulldogs. Motivated Wolfpack do the job.

September 19
Texas Tech at Texas

The first month of the season has only one game that truly matters to returning Texas players, Texas Tech. The Red Raiders kept the Longhorns out of the BCS title game in 2008 and its payback time. Senior QB Colt McCoy has a veteran offensive line and experienced receiving corps, led by Jordan Shipley. Normally coach Mike Leach’s offense does not slow down much when new signal caller is brought in, however expected starter Taylor Potts will be starting on the road for the first time in Austin on a Saturday night, after facing softies North Dakota and Rice. The home team is 8-3 ATS in last 11, add one more W to that total with team in burnt orange burning in-state rival.

September 26
South Florida at Florida State

South Florida returns its two stars; quarterback Matt Grothe and defensive lineman George Selvie. Coach Jim Leavitt has been scheduling softer since joining the Big East and has three milk cartons (Wofford, @ West. Ky. and Charleston Southern) before facing Florida State. Even with quality players like Grothe and Selvie, the lack of big time competition will hurt USF at Tallahassee. The Seminoles will have already played Miami-Fl. and at BYU and be better prepared. Florida State isn’t about to let an in-state squad build reputation at their expense and buries the Bulls with skill and depth.

October 17
Wake Florida at Clemson

More than anything, this is nefarious scheduling slot for Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons suffered four ACC losses last season and their first three conference games are against teams they lost to. The last one is a home game against Maryland, whom they were white-washed by 24-0 last season at College Park. Clemson on the other hand will be off a bye and should be ready after losing as a favorite last year 12-7 at Wake Forest. With the visitor 2-6-2 ATS the last decade, emotionally worn-out Wake doesn’t fire against rested foe.

October 24
Oregon State at USC

The line on this Pac-10 clash probably won’t be fair, however it might not matter. By the end of October, the quarterback will be well-situated, behind a stellar offensive line for perennial power USC and pursuing revenge will be utmost on the Trojans mind after last season’s debacle. Oregon State has holes to fill on the defensive and offensive lines and though the Beavers should be settled, the wave of emotion will be too much to overcome. The visitor is 3-8 ATS and coach Pete Carroll will have his Cheshire cat grin after encounter.

November 7
Houston at Tulsa

The Tulsa offense won’t be as potent as the last several seasons, nevertheless the defense brought back eight starters and they have long memories. The Golden Hurricane started 8-0 in 2008 and had BCS talk swirling around them until they lost at Arkansas 30-23. Two weeks later, still afflicted with pang of first loss, Tulsa ran into hot Houston club who hung 70 points on them, in 40-point loss. (That’s 7 followed by zero) The Cougars are favored to end Tulsa’s claim to C-USA West title this campaign, however they are off huge Southern Miss home game and are stymied by rare November Hurricane in Oklahoma.

November 14
Utah at TCU

Utah grabbed all the headlines in the Mountain West Conference in 2008, with perfect 13-0 season. The Utes won three games by three points or less last season and arguably the toughest was against TCU, who led almost the entire way. The Horned Frogs did everything right, but could not stop Utah on their final deciding drive in 13-10 loss. TCU is the host this campaign and the core players that led to 11-2 season return. With Utah looking for its road legs after three straight home games, the Horned Frogs will be well prepared and are 17-7-1 as single digit conference favorites at Amon G. Cater Stadium.

November 21
Penn State at Michigan State

Penn State will start the season as the #6 team in The Edge, but not too far down the line is Michigan State at 20th. Third year coach Mark Dantonio has upgraded the talent at East Lansing to where the Spartans will have legitimate chance to finish second in the Big Ten, if the cards fall their way. Dantonio is a very serious type and expects his players not to accept losing. Michigan State was pummeled at Penn State 49-18 as 16.5-point underdogs and set up to be home dogs this time around. With excess provocation and the home team 9-3 ATS, expect Sparty to retake the Land Grant Trophy in 2009.

November 27
Rutgers at Louisville

The last Thursday night game of last season was memorable for Rutgers and an absolute nightmare for Louisville. The Scarlet Knights crushed the Cardinals 63-14, out-gaining them 671 to 318. Many are not that optimistic about Louisville’s chances of regaining recent past glory, yet if coach Steve Kragthorpe expects to be coaching beyond this season at present location, he needs his team to watch film of last season for this day after Thanksgiving contest. If the Big East plays out as presumed, Rutgers might take the ‘Ville for granted, looking ahead to season ending encounter at home against West Virginia.

November 28
Rice at Houston

The Cougars may have a tough time in Tulsa, but this offensive juggernaut has some dishing out to do them selves. Houston only needed to win at fellow city disputant Rice, for right to play in C-USA title game, instead was blasted 56-42, in a game that wasn’t that close. Quarterback Case Keenum is dynamic and the Cougars should be right back in same position this time on home turf. Rice loses all its important offensive weapons and these Owls are not going to be noted for defense. Houston may use 70+ point calling card again versus Rice. The home team is 7-3 ATS.

It's a late Monday of action

We’ve certainly hit a disappointing stretch on our plays and our record has fallen. Since April 10, we are still very solid 180-130-3, 58 percent but very disappointed by recent results. Let’s hope today starts to turn this around starting with 80 percent System. We found a perfect Trend on the totals side and the Left Coast Connection is 100 percent behind an American League team. Good Luck

What I realized today- It takes a long time to set up new computer.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Cincinnati with a money line of +100 to +150 with a lousy starting pitcher- ERA of 6.50 over his last 10 starts, with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. Since 2005, this system is 40-10, 80 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Matt Garza and Tampa Bay are 10-0 UNDER in road games this season, with average total being 6.6 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Seven LLC members are on Chicago White Sox with nary a detractor.

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3DW Update

I just had a new computer installed. I haven't had time to review games. I might have something up later today, will not promise however.

Doug

Picking Winners in College Football

Before any sports season starts that I am going to be betting on, I try to find as many angles as I can from any and all sources that I believe can give me an advantage in betting on the team that will cover the spread. Some handicappers look at the fundamentals of a team such as how a team blocks and tackles, stops the run, etc. Others look at situational aspects such as how a team, any team, does after a win as a road underdog and now they are favored. Others look at specific team trends, such as the bad ATS (against the spread) record Fresno State has had after a loss.

The bottom line is that it really doesn’t matter how one handicaps, all that matters is whether you are cashing tickets. I like to find some high level filtering approaches that help me put teams in early categories of “play on” or “play against”. Naturally, as a season transpires, teams can move from one category to the other. In some sports, there is credibility in the premise if you can pick who is going to win the game straight-up, you will have a winning year betting. In college football last season, including bowl games, the team with the most points at the end of the game had a 565-202 record against the spread.

Of course you must remember that any underdog that won a game outright obviously covered the number in that game. College football underdogs last season won games straight-up 23.1% of the time. Last season there were 30 teams that covered the spread at a rate of more than 60% for the season including post-season play. Only five of those 30 teams, 16.7%, had a straight-up losing record. Two squads clocked in at .500 records, both 6-6 for the year. The combined SU record of these 30 teams was 275-128, 68.2%. Collectively, they beat the number 67.8% of the time, 257-122. If teams with winning records do such a good job in beating the oddsmaker's line, do losing teams have a strong tendency to have a poor ATS mark? To quote the former governor of Alaska, “you betcha!”

Teams that finished with a below 40% ATS record for the 2008 campaign in college football only won outright 143 times out of 382 games, a 37.4% frequency. The rate that you cashed a ticket betting on these teams was even lower, a 30.2% ATS record. Of the 31 teams that fall into the “below 40% ATS category”, only 7 had winning records with one coming in with a .500 slate.

So, just being able to pick which team will win a game outright should help you increase your winning percentage betting on college football. As noted above, teams with winning records have a better shot at having a winning ATS season. And, just the opposite is true with losing teams dropping more games against the spread than they win. It would be advantageous if we could determine what a team’s final record will be in 2009. Is there a method to project what a teams’ won-loss record will be?

Obviously, one can put many, many hours into studying a team and evaluating their schedule to try to determine what their final record might be before the season kicks-off. This is very time consuming. There is a short-cut to help determine whether a team will win more or fewer games this season compared to their SU record last year.

First, note which teams’ won-loss record improved or worsened by three games or more from the season before. Looking at how teams did in 2008 compared to 2007, 44 of the 120 FBS schools won-loss records varied by three or more games between the two seasons.

Starting with the 2003 season and marking each season’s record, there were some very interesting results.If a team won three or less games from the previous season, there is a very strong trend that they will improve their record the next season. Actual numbers show these teams that dropped down three or more wins from the previous season have the same or a better record 85.1% of the time in the coming season. Over the past four years, this has happened 63 out of 74 times. In this scenario, only 11 teams out of 74 have had a worse record the following year. Some of the teams that suffered a three game or more drop in wins last year are Tennessee, Michigan, and Central Florida.

On the flipside of the equation, when a team improves by three or more total straight-up wins from one season to the next, there is a trend definitely worth noting regarding how their won-loss record will be this year. After a three or more jump in the number of seasonal wins from the previous year, teams fail to improve their win total 80.3% of the time in the following campaign. Eighty-one teams have had a three game or more improvement since 2003, but only 16 of them had a better record the next year after such an improvement. Three of the 24 teams that had such a jump in 2008 and could fall in season wins this year from the previous season are Rice, Minnesota, and Ball State.

The stats and trends I have mentioned are more tools one can use in handicapping college football. The method of looking at the differential in straight-up wins from one season to the next can be beneficial for bettors who like to place wagers on a team’s season wins number. No matter how you do it, having a road map at the beginning of a season on how you believe every team will perform for the year is beneficial to building your bankroll.

Written by Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority.

On Sunday Exploration for Winners

Another disappointing 1-2 day, with Justin Verlander being vulcanized. Let’s try and find three winners starting with Alan’s Free Play our West. The Top Trend follows the Pirates exploits as larger underdogs and the Best System is 42-6! Good Luck

What I realized today- Since starting the year 13-0, the Los Angeles Dodgers are 23-21 at home. The LLC has seven members on Buffalo and two on Tennessee in the HOF preseason game. (I'll pass thank you) Jay Culter is showing his continued immaturity saying Bears fans are better than Broncos fans and then running away from comment with all kinds of spin control.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like the Cincinnati Reds with a money line of +150 or more, who are cold hitting team, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a scorching starting pitcher with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This sizzling system is 42-6, 87.5 percent since 2007.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Pittsburgh Pirates are 1-14 as a home underdog of +150 to +200 over the last two seasons, losing by enormous four runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Alan of the LCC nailed his top play yesterday and likes the Angels to round up the Rangers.

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Let the football betting commence

It’s only a meaningless NFL preseason contest, but who cares, the NFL is back on TV, which means the regular season is fast approaching. Buffalo and Tennessee will play in the annual Hall of Fame game from Canton, OH. On Saturday, a six-man class was enshrined, with wide receiver Bob Hayes, guard Randall McDaniel, defensive end Bruce Smith, linebacker Derrick Thomas, Buffalo Bills owner Ralph Wilson, and defensive back Rod Woodson being honored.

Later on NBC starting at 8 Eastern, the Bills and Titans will commence to cracking shoulder pads and trading helmet paint.

Buffalo made a splashy move in signing flamboyant wide receiver Terrell Owens. The Bills want to break streak of three consecutive 7-9 seasons (26-21-1 ATS) and try to make leap to at least be wild card team. Owens should fit nicely with Lee Evans on the other side and make Buffalo difficult to stop in the red zone, with four receiver sets that include Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish.

Quarterback Trent Edwards should see limited minutes at best, with backups Ryan Fitzpatrick and Gibran Hamdan seeing the bulk of the work.

Coach Dick Jauron is 5-7 and 7-5 ATS in the preseason in Buffalo and will coach squad that is 6-0 ATS in first exhibition game since 2003. With the Bills a three-point underdog at DiamondSportsbook.com, Jauron is 7-0 against the oddsmakers as underdog.

Tennessee’s tremendous 13-3 season came to disappointing end with first playoff game ouster by Baltimore, 13-10 at home as three-point favorites. Kerry Collins returns for 15th season as quarterback and is the clear number one man in Tennessee. Vince Young is the primary backup and has a lot of work to do this August to restore dwindling NFL career.

The Titans will again feature a strong rushing attack with Chris Johnson and LenDale White, but the receiving core is still a weakness. Maybe free agent acquisition Nate Washington from Pittsburgh and top draft choice Kenny Britt can add some life.

Defensively, a gaping hole was left when Albert Haynesworth left for Washington via free agency. For most teams, this would be devastating loss; however with Jeff Fisher as coach, he usually finds a way to mask deficiencies. Fisher is 29-26 SU and 28-25-2 ATS in the preseason and 18-8 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3.

Except for 1966, there has been a Hall of Fame game every year since 1962 and neither Buffalo nor Tennessee has won here in two previous tries.