The other day had a conversation with a close friend and we were talking about the good old days. Among the topics of discussion were our gambling exploits from years ago. We laughed talking about all the cash we made just following certain teams late in the year. It seemed (the years make the memories fuzzy) no matter if we having a bad year, a great year or just ordinary in progress, we always cashed big late in the season.
Tennessee was a team we made a mint on, since they were always peaking at the end of the season and played several weak teams in those days to close the year, often covering the bookie’s number by two touchdowns or more. Florida State in their prime under
Bobby Bowden was another, more in their Independent days and the early years of being a member of the ACC.
Their were other gift spots we knew about, like playing against Notre Dame no matter how good they were (that’s been awhile) in the last home game or a number of Georgia/Georgia Tech and South Carolina/ Clemson games when the home team it seemed never covered.
After laughing ourselves silly thinking about how he once gave a guy 54-points and Kansas (if memory serves correct) against Oklahoma, with the Sooners covering 62-7 for a few Ben Franklin’s, our discussion turned to betting on ranked teams late in the season. He believed ranked teams were good at home and bad on the road.
His rationale was as long as a team was of quality to be highly ranked late in the season; they should be a good bet at 21 or fewer points. Any pointspread above 21 the team has to be playing extremely well or the opponent so bad, the favorite can’t help but win and be very close to covering the number.
Ranked teams on the road were dicier, starting with the fact they’re favored about 80 percent of the time. A home underdog can make their season late in the year with an upset. These can be very dangerous opponents, especially ones that have the ability to score points, since they can feed off the momentum of the crowd and often play over their heads. Additionally he noted, the coaches and players of ranked teams on the road are probably still playing for some conference positioning and will get tight if pushed by lesser foe.
All this talked about ranked teams late in the year, led to research to determine answers. Here are the three questions that were formulated to be answered.
1) How do ranked teams perform in the last three games of the regular season?
2) How do ranked teams perform at home?
3) How do ranked teams perform on the road?
The answers were to be determined both straight up and seeing this is tip sheet is information driven for sports bettors, how the teams do against the spread.
The answer to the first question was slightly surprising on a couple of points. Of the 293 games played by ranked teams over the last five years (2003-07) in the last three weeks of the season, the Top 25 teams are 224-69, 76.4 percent. What was mildly surprising was my preconceived notion these schools actually won more frequently, closer to 80 percent. When thinking about it more, the number made more sense, as like anyone; you tend to think about the top end, not the bottom. Any team ranked #18-25, likely has a couple of losses or plays in a weaker conference and is more vulnerable to being defeated.
One aspect that did not catch me off-guard was the spread record of these teams. Of the 293 games, the actual record was 148-135-10 against the spread, a 52.2 percent mark, which would cause bettors to have betting accounting accounts similar to many people’s 401K plans, less than what you started with.
Let’s move along to question two, how do ranked teams play at home. This is where the numbers kind of get weird, not in a bad way, just peculiar. Home teams were 135-39 straight up 77.5 percent, almost the same percentage as the overall number, meaning ranked teams played almost the same home or away late in the year.
My friend was accurate in his belief that the elite teams in the country are a good bet at home with a 95-73-6 ATS record, good for 56.5 percent. Among the leaders carrying the torch for this group is USC at 9-0 and 7-2 ATS, Louisville at 5-0 and 4-1 ATS and Boise State at 4-0 SU and against the spread as home favorites the last five years.
I was somewhat stunned ranked teams were so good on the road at 89-30, 74.7 percent. However, when digging into the spread number, the real truth came out. With rare exception, Top 25 teams when listed as road favorites ended up being 52-62-5 ATS, a rather lousy percentage of 45.6 percent, particularly when you consider these teams won nearly three out of four games. As my pal so accurately described, ranked teams have something to play for and might be more conservative, compared to home team underdogs that can play all out with nary a reason to hold anything back.
In doing the research, two other questions came to mind. What is the outcome when both teams are ranked and does it matter if one team has a higher ranking?
The first question offered a staggering result in my opinion. When two highly ranked squads are facing off late in the year, the presumption is the home team has the edge. From a wagering perspective, the road team might offer more value since the two teams are probably fairly close in talent as most positions, at least that would be the traditional method of thinking. Here, either the more focused or relaxed visitor won 21 of 38 games played and covered the spread an astonishing 60 percent of the time at 21-14-3 ATS.
Taking it one step further, how does a higher ranked team do, no matter where the contest is held? Though most Top 25 ratings of any kind are believed superficial, they do mean a great deal to those seeking to add money to wagering accounts. The higher ranked school is 25-13 overall with an almost matching 24-13-1 against the spread record. That is good for a delectable 64.8 winning percentage. This seems contrary to the previous question, but does point out the differences in the two teams. Place two similar teams by ability on the field, each with the same motivation and willingness to perform at peak performance, the better team is without question the better wager.
In conclusion, a wise old goat like my friend has been through enough battles to understand what happens late in the year. Playing visitors when two teams are in the Top 25 is smarter than a 6th grader and forget Warren Buffet and others trying to figure out unstable stock market, buy higher ranked teams when matched versus other ranked clubs to really make money.
The college football landscape is dotted with landmines this week. Alabama takes its number one ranking to Baton Rouge, with LSU lying in wait to ruin their unblemished record. Texas Tech is second in the BCS standings, but might have an even tougher opponent in Oklahoma State this week. Penn State got passed by in the rankings last week and has what could be their last chance to lose in the regular season traveling to Iowa City. All USC can do is wallop Pac-10 teams and hope those higher than them happen to lose, as they host California this week. In the ACC, anything is possible and Virginia and Wake Forest play in an elimination game. The All lines shown are from Bookmaker.com.
Washington has passed most of their previous tests, save for a final-second loss at home to the Rams in Week 6. But looking at St. Louis these days maybe that defeat isn't as bad as it originally looked. The Redskins steamrolled hapless-and still winless-Detroit, 25-17, and remains just behind the Giants in the NFC East.
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