Sensational Saturday

Came back around with 2-1 day and look to deliver even better results for today. We start with 25-4 ATS system in the NBA and move on to CBB totals trend that matches the taste of both teams. I’ve had a very good start in the tournament and offer my best play for today. Good Luck

What I thought today- Ran out of time, yesterday, hopefully today. (For those that get my email plays, please note I have Butler/MS OVER, but at last night's 128 not today's 132).

3Daily Winners is – No.1 the last 10 days at Cappers Monitor
3Daily Winners is - No.1 in College Basketball for the season (units) at Cappers Monitor
3Daily Winners is – 135-87 (60.8 percent) since Jan. 24 in CBB

I have a guest blogger named Rick who is frequent reader and very knowledgable bettor who is attending the games in Milwaukee and supplies this report.

I was impressed with Xavier...they're a well-coached team...everytime Minneoata made a run at them...they turned it up on both ends of the court and were very focused.

I know a team can look great playing a very low- seed, but Pitt showed the best combination of inside-outside game, coaching, and "going for the kill" when they had to. Jamie Dixon doesn't have a Final 4 on his resume, but he cosistently does a great job.

Georgia Tech raced off to a 6-0 lead...OSU threw a variety of different defenses, and the Yellow Jackets took some time to adjust, and they eventually did.... for the win. I hope they can adjust to these match-ups more quickly. They had the lead and had some insurance, but in a later round game, they might not have that luxury!

Ohio St. ws up 13-3 in no time, but they let UCSB back in the game. They dominated the boards,and had seven blocks at halftime. They have a lot of outside firepower, with a lot of great shooters, but I worry about their lack of consistent inside, offensive play, and some of the starters getting in foul trouble. I see Lauderdale as the key...he had a big spurt in the second half. and needs to keep that intensity, and to stay out of foul trouble. Pitt kept playing intense with an early lead, but Ohio St., in my opinion..kind of let-up...they need to stick to the game plan for 40 minutes.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On road teams like Toronto scoring 103 or more points game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. In the previous five years this system is 25-4 ATS, 86.2 percent.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Double angle from article below - Murray State is 10-0 OVER after making 53 percent or less of their free throws and Butler 10-1 OVER in all neutral court games over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) I’m going as well as anyone in the NCAA’s at 7-1-1 and my best play today is St. Mary’s. (To receive all my plays for FREE signup for mailing list to the right)

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Saturday night is about Wildcats

High seeds Kentucky and Kansas State will complete a full day of Round 2 action after dark in locations east of the Mississippi River. Each of these Wildcat squads are favored, but not by large amounts as they seek to avoid the upset and move on to Sweet 16.

Wake Forest will have to play big

Wake Forest (20-10, 16-11 ATS) played their most complete game in a month in taking down Texas 81-80 in OT as five-point underdogs. Guard Ishmael Smith’s last shot was a swish, which helped him finish with 19 points, 12 boards and a victory. The next task will be far more daunting and you can forgive coach Dino Gaudio for inquiring about what eligibility the Ivan Brothers have left after watching tape on Kentucky (33-2, 18-15 ATS).

The Wildcats are the biggest team in college basketball, having NBA-size in the frontcourt and they looked similarly imposing in handing East Tennessee State its exit papers 100-71 as 18.5-point favorites. Though Wake Forest’s strength is its baseline players like Al-Farouq Aminu, Kentucky is 6-0 ATS on the road versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds a game on the season. The Demon Deacons are nine-point underdogs, but that might work for them since Wake is 12-4 ATS catching points the last two seasons, losing by one point a game in that situation.

K-State out to tames Cougars offense

The other Wildcats had a similarly easy time with first round foe North Texas, as Kansas State (27-7, 20-9 ATS) turned the Mean Green into Gumby with 20-point thumping. The Wildcats guard tandem of Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen will have to not only score, but play defense against BYU (30-5, 19-13 ATS) who can match points with any team in the country.

The Cougars need two overtimes to finally frustrate Florida 99-92 and grab a fairly remarkable cover. Remarkable only begins to tell the story of Jimmer Fredette, who finished with 37 points. Fredette is the heart and soul of BYU and his point total matched Danny Ainge from 29 years ago, for tournament school record. The junior guard was clutch, with 29 of his points scored after halftime. The Kansas State guards are not dutiful defenders and the Wildcats are only 5-14 ATS when out of Manhattan versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or points a game.

K-State is 4.5-point favorite at Bookmaker.com with total of 155 and they are exquisite 7-1 ATS facing teams who make eight or more three bombs a game on the year. The Cougars will try and force the pace of the game even higher, as they are 6-0 ATS in road games when they score 81 to 86 points.

Round 2 Afternoon Wagering Options

The afternoon session of the NCAA Tournament this Saturday has a wide variety of wagering options and games that could turn into real head-scratchers. Lower seeds Murray State, Ohio U., Washington and Old Dominion could make a mess of the most people brackets, if they could pull off yet another upset. Here is a preview of what the afternoon might look like for sports bettors.

Murray State vs. Butler 3:20E

The Racers proved oddsmakers correct in assigning them a low number as underdog against Vanderbilt with their thrilling one point buzz-beater against the Commodores. Few teams in college basketball are more balanced than Murray State (31-4, 16-13-1 ATS), with six players capable of scoring in double figures every game, making defenses having to guard everyone evenly. The Racers have run out to 22-1 SU streak and are adept this season to varying paces with 16-4 ATS mark in away games after two or more Under’s.

Butler (29-4, 14-19 ATS) passed their first test with bulldog determination, routing UTEP with huge 50-26 second half. The Bulldogs employed a great strategy against the Miners as explained by their head coach. "One of the things we try to do is we try to talk about not hitting home runs, it's single, single, single, single, one possession at a time, and we felt like if we played that way today we would be able to do some things," Stevens said of staying patient. Butler is 6-1 ATS the last seven times they have been a favorite of eight points or less.

Bookmaker.com has the Bulldogs as five-point faves with total of 128.5, but they are 3-10 ATS after they’ve covered the spread this season. Watch the total on this match, with Murray State 10-0 OVER after making 53 percent or less of their free throws and Butler 10-1 OVER in all neutral court games over the last three seasons. No. 13 seeds that score 70 or more points, concede less than 66 PPG and get less than 48 percent of points from the backcourt are 3-0 SU against five seeds. (Thanks, Bracketscience.com)

Ohio U vs. Tennessee 3:35E

Tennessee’s defense had problems with how San Diego State executed their offense in the paint area, in Saturday’s second round matinee, they will have to defend 25 or more feet to move on to Sweet 16. Ohio U. (22-14, 19-12 ATS) was the first 14th-seed to engineer an upset in four years, shooting 58.2 percent against Georgetown and draining 13-three balls. The dangerous duo of Armon Bassett and D.J. Cooper accounted for 55 points, making the Bobcats a tough out and they are 10-2 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.

Tennessee (26-8, 13-17-1 ATS) is an 8.5-point favorite and will have to use their size to move Ohio U. around and force feed the ball down low to Wayne Chism. After struggling mightily, J.P. Prince and Scotty Hopson are showing signs of finding their offense, which would be important since they are 1-8 ATS away from Knoxville after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less.

Ohio U. is 6-0 ATS in March and 12-1 ATS in last 13 tries and 14th-seeds taking on six-seeds lose by 5.1 PPG on average.

Northern Iowa vs. Kansas 5:40E

Kansas doesn’t play in many games with a total of 126.5. That is the second lowest number that has popped up on their plate the last three seasons. The Jayhawks (33-2, 14-17-1 ATS) has the skill level to alter their pace, as they are 12-6-3 ATS when the total is 136 or less the past three years. Kansas has the size and quickness edge to contain Northern Iowa (29-4, 22-10 ATS) in the paint and they are 9-1 ATS in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

The Panthers desperately have to control tempo, or they will get blown out. Northern Iowa has veteran experience and isn’t going to find the moment too big facing the nation’s No. 1 team. Against UNLV, after having issues with the Rebels press, the Panthers settled in and played their game. UNI is an 11.5-point underdog and is 11-4 ATS after four or more consecutive wins this season. They will need eight or more three-point plays to hang with Kansas and stay out of foul trouble in the frontcourt. Nine seeds that average less than 73 points and have scoring margin differential of less than seven points, are 0-46 SU facing a top seed.

Old Dominion vs. Baylor 5:45E

Nobody is going to mistake Waco, TX as a basketball mecca, nevertheless Baylor (25-7, 16-9 ATS) is creating a stir with this talented bunch. The Bears wrestled with a hearty Sam Houston State bunch, winning by nine as 10.5-point chalk, but when it is your first NCAA victory in six decades, you don’t quibble about details. Baylor was led by Ekpe Udoh (20 points, 13 rebounds), who recorded his 15th double-double and they are 10-2 ATS having won four of their last five games this season.

Old Dominion (27-8, 13-17-1 ATS) followed the old tale of – Cut off the head and the body will die. The Monarchs prevented Notre Dame’s Luke Hanargody from scoring until the final minute and upset the Fighting Irish. Old Dominion played outstanding perimeter defense as the normally reliable Irish shooters were 6-26 from behind the three-point line and they helped expertly when the higher seed tried to dribble and drive. "I guess I'm kind of old school. I think we can guard people and stop them," coach Blaine Taylor said. The Monarchs have six straight wins (4-2 ATS) and are 4.5-point underdogs. ODU however is 0-6 ATS after six or more consecutive triumphs and 3 vs. 11 matchups have the higher seed winning by 8.8 PPG and if that team was not in the tournament the prior year, they are 12-0 SU.

Washington vs. New Mexico 5:50E

The final contest of the afternoon session should be frantic affair. Both teams score in the mid to upper 70’s and stingy defense is the not the strength of either club. Washington (25-9, 15-18 ATS) moved ahead thanks to Quincy Pondexter’s efforts, making two clutch baskets in the final 34 seconds, including the game winner with 1.7 seconds left. The Huskies are now 13-2 and 10-4 ATS since lost weekend in L.A. in Pac-10 action.

New Mexico (30-4, 18-14-1 ATS) looked nervous in opening contest against Montana and played well only is spurts, winning 52-47 as nine-point favorites. The Lobos don't have a starter taller than 6’8, yet they have a number of players that can fill the basket, including Mountain West Conference Player of the Year, forward Darington Hobson. The Lobos are 14-5 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less and the number three seed is a 1.5-point underdog to Pac-10 post season champions.

Nova on the ropes?

You would have to believe so by the way they are playing and evidently other actions off the court. Villanova (25-7, 18-13 ATS) has won three of their previous eight games, covering the spread twice (one was by a single point). The big question about the Wildcats seems to be commitment.

Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher were the latest players late in the season to be a part of coach Jay Wright’s “teaching points”, starting the a NCAA game on the bench. Does this appear to be a team hungry to return to the Final Four?

Villanova was a 17-point favorite over No. 15 Robert Morris and needed five extra minutes to put away the Colonials 73-70. Nova’s biggest lead of the game was six points as they shot 35.3 percent as a team and were 6-22 from behind the arc and at the end of the contest, one team got a standing ovation and it wasn’t Villanova. The Wildcats will have to work hard to keep 8-1 ATS record in road games playing their second game in three days over the last two seasons.

St. Mary’s (27-5, 21-9-1 ATS) is the opponent out of the 10th seed slot and they are very capable at 13-3 and 12-4 ATS on the road. After losing consecutive road games at Gonzaga and Portland in the middle of February and allowing 80 points in each, coach Randy Bennett made it point to reconstruct St. Mary’s practices, starting each one with defensive focus. This new strategy has work emphatically, as the Gaels have rattled off six straight wins and five covers.

Another big factor in St. Mary’s success and it big, literally, is the domination of 6’11 center Omar Samhan. He tore up the Richmond defense with his 29 points and 12 rebounds, leading the way in comfortable 80-71 upset of the Spiders. Samhan has enjoyed more freedom in the low blocks as point guard Mickey McConnell and freshman guard Matthew Dellavedova have shot the rock with greater effectiveness deep. St. Mary’s is 10-3 ATS away from home after two or more wins this season.

Villanova is five-point favorite with total of 153.5 at Bookmaker.com, which should mean a high scoring affair. The Wildcats may be 15-6 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game, but 10-seeds have won outright 40 percent of the time against No. 2’s if they average better than 72 points a game and if they outscore opponents by at least five points per contest (St. Mary’s at 13.5). The Gaels are 12-3 ATS on the road after scoring 80 or more points.

This is the opening game on Saturday slated for 1:05 Eastern and Villanova is 17-4 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.

Day 2 NCAA's

Sadly an official 0-2 day, as our best system was a winner but was not 80 percent or higher. Today’s happens to be and is first half bet at 84.4 percent. Our Top Trend ventures back into the ACC and is reverse perfect and Paul Buck had superb day yesterday in his combination of plays and offers his top choice today. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- Coming later

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On neutral court underdogs like Gonzaga vs. the first half line, after a loss by 15 points or more against opponent after four straight games where both teams score 70 points or less. This sweet system is 27-5 ATS, 84.4 percent dating back 13 years.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Clemson is is 0-8 ATS away from home versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or less turnovers a game this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Paul Buck was 10-2 in all of his CBB plays yesterday and is favorite wager today is Temple.

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Are the high seeds a good or bad wager Friday evening?

In the final sector of first round games, five teams with seeds five or higher are in action. Just five years ago or slightly more, the higher seeds were strictly play against, as oddsmakers loaded the points on the chalk, trying to bait the public into paying dearly for heavy favorites. Yet in the last several seasons, people got wise and took the points with over-stuffed dogs and cashed a number of winners along the way. This has forced oddsmakers to produce a truer number on the higher seeds, which in turn has made picking winners that much more challenging. What will tonight bring?

(1)Duke vs (16)Arkansas Pine Bluff

The Blue Devils are being talked about in some circles as a viable option as championship game participant. That is not exactly man bites dog material given Duke is the top seed in the South, but they are far and away the quietest from public perception No. 1 squad coach Mike Krzyzewski has ever had. Sports bettors have paid attention and have been betting the Blue Devils up significantly to 23-point at DiamondSportsbook.com.

Duke has kept getting better as the season trudged on. Coach K knew what to expect from Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and for the most part Lance Thomas. As the season continued, the Hall of Fame coach found ways to place Thomas in more productive offensive situations, the Plumlee brothers became ripe as a plum, playing with increased confidence and making Duke a force on the glass. If senior Brian Zoubek continues to march forward (averaging 10.1 boards in last 10 games), no reason the Dukies can’t improve to 6-2 ATS when favored by 13 or more since Dec. 15.

By now, most are familiar with the fact Arkansas Pine-Bluff lost first 11 games of the season, all on the road against mostly formidable competition. To their credit the Gold Lions showed heart and have won 18 of last 22. AR-PB isn’t going to knock off Duke, but they could cover the spot if they can continue to maintain +6 rebound margin.

(1)Syracuse vs (16)Vermont

The Orangemen are 16-point choice and they need to start fast to regain their swagger after losing last two trips to the hardwood. Syracuse needs infusion of confidence getting Wesley Johnson started and pounding the ball inside to whomever is on the court to open up shooting lanes. Dating back 13 years, the Orange is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive losses as a favorite.

Vermont won’t be a pushover, as they hold teams to only 39.7 percent shooting. The Catamounts have had time to breakdown workings of Syracuse’s 2-3 zone and must have top notch efforts from Marqus Blakely (two-time America East Player of the Year), Maurice Joseph and Evan Fjeld. It’s interesting to note despite Vermont not having many games showing up on big boards for bettors, they are 8-0 ATS after playing a game as favorite.

(2)Ohio State vs (15)UC-Santa Barbara

Sports talk personality Jim Rome called UCSB “the most dangerous 15th seed ever”, of course that was a whimsical quote having attended the university several years ago. The Gauchos will find out just how good they are against one of the best starting five’s in the tournament in Ohio State.

The Buckeyes have Evan Turner, as good a place to start as there is the country. Review these numbers. Ohio State is 21-4 and 17-10-1 ATS with Turner (0-6 ATS without him). His presence helps the other players get better shots and the Buckeyes are 26-2 and 17-11-1 ATS when they connect on a higher shooting percentage than opposing club. The magic number for the Buckeyes is 70, as they are 20-1 and 15-5-1 ATS when they reach that barrier and being a 17-point favorite with total of 132, suggests a 75-57 final score.

UC-Santa Barbara is presumed to put up a good fight; however they are 10-25 ATS versus solid shooting teams making 48 percent or more of their shots.

(4)Maryland vs. (13)Houston

The Terps will have ginourmous edge in facing Houston. Maryland has played 20 minutes of full effort basketball since March 6, the second half in their loss in the ACC quarterfinals against Georgia Tech. The Terrapins played like turtles, moving in slow motion against the Yellow Jackets in the first half and were deservedly beaten.

Houston on the other hand played four games in four days, which is what was needed to make first NCAA entrance in 18 years. The Cougars have to stay hotter than an August afternoon in Houston to win their fifth consecutive game. Houston heated up UTEP in the C-USA championship game with 12 treys, which was the 13th time this season they have drilled 10 or more deep tosses. Coach Tom Penders teams usually take care of the ball and are 20-6 ATS away from home after a game committing eight or less turnovers.

Maryland’s Gary Williams club is a 9.5-point favorite and they need to shake off last game as bad effort, figuring they were due, after knocking off seven straight opponents and posting 8-3 ATS record in previous 11. The Terps defense can swallow up the best of offensives, holding teams to 38.8 percent and are 7-1 ATS versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers a contest after 15 or more games this season.

(5)Michigan State vs. (12)New Mexico State

The Spartans are favored by 13-points over New Mexico State and cover this handily if they listen to their coach and start putting in the kind of effort that took them to the national championship game a season ago. While it’s true Michigan State lacks a true center that is not a requirement for the Aggies. New Mexico likes to motor up and down the floor, but defense is not in fashion in Las Cruces, as they concede 77.8 points per game (while scoring 78.6 PPG) and allow foes to ring up 46.7 percent shooting away from southern New Mexico. The Spartans are 21-8 ATS away from East Lansing when they score 75 to 80 points.

If Michigan State continues to be sloppy with the ball (14 turnovers a game), they could have a game on their hands. The Aggies are not a so-called mid-major that holds the ball and tries to limit possessions to slow down superior opponent; these guys are athletes and like to run. Guard Jahmar Young is a creator and an All-WAC performer at 20.5 points per game. His running mate is Jonathan Gibson and the duo combines for average of 38 points per contest. New Mexico State wants to play fast and is 8-1 ATS after two or more Under’s and the Spartans are 0-7 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 12.5 to 15 points.

Michigan State does the job by keeping N.M. State out of the lane area and allowing them to fall in love with three point heaves, which they are prone to do. If the Aggies are not dropping long shots and can’t earn what they need within 15-feet of the basket, the total of 148 fits the Spartans when the numbers fall between 140 to 149.5, showcasing 14-5 ATS mark.

Reviewing the Friday Early Line Moves

The wagering public has had more time to dissect the Friday numbers and they have come up with interesting choices on the Friday afternoon or morning matchups depending on one’s time zone. What did these people see that maybe you didn’t or what do you know something they don’t?

The one contest the public felt the strongest about is the Texas A&M and Utah State total. At DonBest.com, they show this game opening at 129.5 and have seen it be in free fall down to 125. The reasoning for is not readily apparent, at least by how each team plays. Texas A&M averages just over 133 total points per game and 129.6 points away from College Station. Utah State is over 136 total points in all games they have played and even higher on the road at 139 exactly.

The general tendency would be to believe the pace will be slowed down for a tournament tilt and the Aggies from Logan, UT are 14-5 UNDER after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games. Texas A&M is 11-3 UNDER in road games after one or more consecutive losses. Both are good defensive squads, thus it will be curious to see what occurs.

The Purdue and Siena contest, which will be the first game in Spokane, figured to have movement at least in one direction. All week people have been talking about the Boilermakers lopsided loss to Minnesota in the Big Ten tourney and they will face a veteran Siena team that knocked off higher-seeded teams in each of the last two NCAA tournaments. Purdue opened as five-point favorites and have fallen to four at Sportsbook.com and most other wagering outlets.
Even before Robbie Hummel’s season ending injury, Purdue was not a good wager and is 2-11 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 games this season. Siena figures to be more focused than they were in MAAC champion game where they had to overcome huge deficit to win over Fairfield 72-65 to survive as nine-point favorites. On the years, the Saints are holier than thou 10-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread.

The total on this 4 vs. 13 encounter has fallen 1.5-points to 130 and this seems a little less certain. If Siena is really ready to pull the upset, the number coming down is justified, as the Saints are 11-4 UNDER having won 12 or more of their last 15 contests. However, the Boilermakers are 14-4 OVER in road games after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread.

Many have no idea who Oakland U. is (Summit League champions) and even fewer would know where they are from (Rochester, MI). The Golden Grizzlies are veteran bunch, with two seniors and three juniors in the starting lineup, making their second NCAA appearance in three years. Oakland U. averages 76.8 points per game and the contests they have played that had oddsmakers numbers, they are 10-4 OVER. Why than is the total headed downward against third-seeded Pittsburgh?

Three factors are in play. The Golden Grizzlies played four teams in this tournament, averaging just 54.5 points a contest. The Panthers of Pitt hold opposing teams to 40 percent shooting and neutral court teams off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog like Oakland, in a game involving two teams with win percentage of 60 to 80 percent, are 46-19 UNDER.

The Cornell story is ideal for the Cinderella in March, their misfortune, at least on the surface is drawing one of the hottest teams in the tournament in Temple. The Owls have flown to 10 consecutive wins (8-2 ATS) in being the A-10 champions for the third year in a row. This doesn’t stop the Big Red from having a chance to pull the upset and lines are trending towards university from Ithaca, NY. No one is going to confuse the Ivy League with the Atlantic 10, especially this season. Yet this isn’t your grandpa’s Cornell club. The Big Red shoot the ball expertly (48.1 percent) and drain the three-ball at 43.4 percent rate. They also have a rarity, a 7’0 center in Jeff Foote, who’s a solid player.

No question Temple deserves all the accolades coming their way, however one aspect deserves a further look. In common opponents this season, Cornell is 5-3 SU & ATS, with +2.9 scoring margin. The Owls against these same opponents are 7-2, with 4-5 ATS record and score differential of +5.9. The public might be on to something.

Missouri and Clemson are essentially mere images of one another, pressing teams that love to force turnovers and disrupt opponents into numerous miscues. Mizzou has veterans from last year’s Elite 8 club and they force 10.9 steals and 20 turnovers per contest, leading the nation in both categories. The Tigers of Clemson are ninth in the country in steals at 9.6 per game and they convert on seven shots from beyond the arc. Missouri also is not afraid to launch the three ball either, making eight of their own an outing.

The total opened at 138 and is up 2.5-points. With both teams ability to force turnovers, that usually leads to points. Each has faced a pressing defense in practice all season and should know how to attack once they break the press, taking the ball to the basket. Missouri is 10-1 OVER in last 11 NCAA battles and Clemson is 24-10 OVER after two or more consecutive Under’s.

NCAA Tournament Preview

Welcome to the Dance

Had a bad feeling about yesterday’s tremendous system as Dallas built huge lead and just coasted in failing to cover giving us 1-2 day. We start with a system this doesn’t quite make the grade for us at 75 percent; however it was the best one I could find today. The Top Trend is kind of a shocker if you were not aware and the LCC looks to keep on rolling in with Top Free play. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- Have a great day and enjoy!!!!!

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against neutral court teams like UTEP, with a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63 or less PPG), after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half. This non-qualify system is 45-15 ATS, including 5-0 this year.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Wake Forest is 1-10 ATS in NCAA Tournament games.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The LCC consensus is hotter than a Papa John’s pizza with five straight winners and is behind Richmond (6-0) today.

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What happens Thursday night in tourney?

Top seeds Kansas and Kentucky don’t figure to have a lot or work on their hands in their opening games and No.3 seeds New Mexico and Georgetown are expected to move on and play on Saturday, but what about the other four games. This is where close contests are not only presumed, but upsets are thought to be a real possibility. Bring the shovel and start digging.

Are six seeds secure?

Marquette and Tennessee will both wear the favorite’s hat, but is it a snug fit or one that could be blown off under uncertain conditions. The Golden Eagles (22-11, 17-10 ATS) have won six of the last eight games, however have had issues with teams that prefer to play at fast pace. In three games in this stretch, the height-challenged Marquette squad has surrendered 50 percent or more in defensive field goal percentage to Seton Hall, Villanova and Georgetown.

In comes Washington, on a serious roll (7-0-, 6-1 ATS) as Pac-10 postseason champs. The Huskies average 79.8 points per game and like to “floor it” on offense. Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS) has covered four of their last five NCAA tournament games and No.11 seeds that that average over 73 points a game are prime material to pull first round upsets. Washington is receiving 1.5-points at Bookmaker.com with total of 143, yet keep in mind the former Warriors from Milwaukee are 7-0 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

Prior to SEC semi-final contest, Tennessee (25-8, 13-17 ATS) had won five in a row and seven of eight and looking like a team on the come. The Volunteers brutally grotesque loss to Kentucky by 29-point evidently has left an impression against Mountain West team that won conference tournament on the road literally, with smallish spread.

Tennessee has covered their last four outings off a spread loss, however are only 3-7-1 ATS in Big Dance tournament games. The Vols play much better from the lead, since they shoot only 31.3 percent from three-point land.

San Diego State (25-8, 18-13 ATS) is not terribly tall, yet super aggressive on the offensive boards, accounting for +7 rebound margin. Like Tennessee, the Aztecs playing outstanding defense (40.5 vs. 39.4 for Vols) and they convert on 47.7 percent of shot attempts. S.D. State stifled UNLV on their own floor in MWC title tilt, holding them to 45 points on 32.7 percent accuracy and they are 22-9 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.
Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite, with only three covers the last 10 times they were the preferred choice.

8 vs. 9 or 9 vs. 8 who knows

In the last 11 tournaments, the lower seed has held a slight edge with 23-21 SU record and 23-19-2 ATS mark. That would give Northern Iowa (28-4, 21-10 ATS) a narrow margin in theory and they are one-point dogs to UNLV.

The Panthers are balanced and go 10 deep and don’t beat themselves. Northern Iowa is never in a hurry offensively, with C Jordan Eglseder and F Adam Koch the inside presence and bombers like Ali Farokhmanesh to do the scoring. UNI also can tie-up teams up on defense, holding them to 54.3 points per game (40.3 percent) and are willing to do the work for the entire shot clock if necessary. This patient club is 8-2 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season.

UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS) had their six game winning streak snapped in the MWC finals. The Rebels have a stellar backcourt with Tre’Von Willis and Oscar Bellfield; however do not have a starter more than 6’8 to go against Northern Iowa’s big guys. UNLV is 15-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 under coach Lon Kruger the last three seasons, which gives this the feel of last basket wins conflict.

The other 8 vs. 9 matchup is more about survival than just being close encounter. Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) has wallowed losing five of six. Al-Farouq Amino is their most productive offensive weapon and the Demon Deacons do a descent job working the glass, but lack consistent scoring from the guard spots. Wake is just 1-10 ATS in previous NCAA tournament tilts.

Texas (24-9, 11-18 ATS) fell like housing values, going from No.1 in the country to an eighth seed in the course of the season, an unprecedented event. As the year has worn on, its crystal clear this team lacks chemistry, focus and dreadful point guard play exacerbates the situation. Texas is a five point favorite for whatever reason and is 3-11 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or contests have been played this season. Anybody have a coin?

Line makers tell the score for opening NCAA games

There is this person I’ve known for years, who has a regular full-time teaching job at a smaller university who is essentially a semi-professional gambler. Kendall used to bet with bookies, but once betting on the internet became an option, he moved that direction and has stayed there. His method of betting college basketball couldn’t be any more simplistic; he watches games and breaks down the line.

By breaking the line, this refers the side and total of a contest to see what the outcome should be. For example here is what the line makers are saying about the outcome of the first eight games of the NCAA Tournament. The numbers are from Bookmaker.com and because of how they fall, we can’t land exactly on the correct number and get as close as possible.

Villanova -18, 147.5 - Projected score Villanova 83-65
Richmond -2, 134.5 - Projected score Richmond 68-66
Baylor -10.5, 150 - Projected score Baylor 80-70
Notre Dame -2.5, 121.5 - Projected score Notre Dame 62-59
BYU -4.5, 146.5 - Projected score BYU 75-71
Kansas State -16, 148.5 - Projected score Kansas State 82-66
Vanderbilt -3, 141 - Projected score Vanderbilt 72-69
Butler -2.5, 130.5 - Projected score Butler 66-64

This is what the oddsmakers are telling us what the outcome of each game should be, but is this what will occur? I asked Kendall his thoughts.

“Villanova automatically is favored by 12 points because of the conference differential between the Big East and the Northeast (Conference).” He went on to add the Wildcats guards are 10 points better those from Robert Morris, but Colonials defense is better, which is two points in their favor. Robert Morris was crushed by Big East teams Syracuse (by 40) and Pittsburgh (by 24) but played better down the stretch with 5-2 record compared to Nova’s 2-5 stutter. He explained Robert Morris would be a better play with the points if they did a better job on protecting the ball per possession.

In the other South Region matchup, Kendall sees value in Richmond over St. Mary’s. “The conference difference is worth three points in Richmond’s favor, which is the difference in the game.” He tells me St. Mary’s lacks the foot speed to contain the Spiders point guard Kevin Anderson and he also likes David Gonzalvez, which gives them three point edge over St. Mary’s in the backcourt. Because Omar Samhan and Ben Allen are both taller that what Richmond can counter with, he gives the Gaels an edge, however because of how well the Spiders can defend in help defense, the difference is negated to smaller portion. Kendall likes Richmond to win and cover.

Kendall sees window of opportunity with Sam Houston State with the points over Baylor. “Sam Houston State is your classic upset specialist. They average nine 3’s a game and convert at high rate (37.8 percent). They average 80 points a game (79.9) and are +5 rebound margin. Double digit points worthwhile.” I asked Kendall about Baylor’s outstanding numbers on offense and defense and wasn’t their talent superior? He responded this way. “The Big Eight is 10 points better than the Southland. If this is accurate and I believe it is, why are the Bears only favored by almost the same number? This is high risk, high reward bet.”

The Notre Dame and Old Dominion side is seen as correct by Kendall. However he likes the total. “People are watching Notre Dame thinking this is Big East game, it’s not. ODU will force tempo and Irish didn’t forget how to play faster if needed. The Monarchs don’t shoot well, but they really pound the glass and will get several put backs. With total coming down, great value in game I see in the low 130’s.”

The Kansas State and BYU’s matchups are “spot on” accordingly to this sports bettor; however he sees opportunity in the other two afternoon clashes.

“I’m playing Murray State three ways, with the points, first half and on the money line. Oddsmakers subtly sneaked in a number on Murray State and nobody noticed but sharps. My information is most have laid low, making smaller wagers, hoping the public will back SEC team late, which will this more attractive (wager) closer to game time. Think about it, SEC vs Ohio Valley, three points, are you kidding!”

Last is Butler and UTEP. ‘I’ve watched both teams play at least eight times and at different points of the season. Butler is smarter club, but that Georgetown loss in New York told a tale. If (Derrick) Caracter gets Matt Howard in foul trouble early, where does Butler turn? Caracter would have his way and UTEP really creates problems with their complete defense, not just press (39 percent). If exhausted Miners team had beaten Houston, at worst they should have been ninth seed. As much as I enjoy watch Butler, UTEP with the points is play.”

Saint Patrick's Day plays

Tuesday was an excellent day at 3DW with 3-1 record. Discovered a really outstanding NBA system that is 88.9 percent. The top trend is perfect, following the worst team in professional basketball. The LCC stays hot and has another underdog with top Free play. Good Luck

What I’m sharing today- Eighteen years ago I put together a first round system that has shown a profit 14 times betting the first 32 games. I will tell you, the NCAA committee and the oddsmakers have eroded this system, since the matchups and the lines where this system found good plays has lost the last two years. I used to find six to 10 plays, however it is down to four this year. In order is BYU, Robert Morris, Washington and Wofford.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On home teams like Dallas off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, against opponent off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. The line has jumped higher on the Mavs, which could test system that spine-tingling 24-3 ATS, 88.9 percent.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Oddsmakers are working to combat this angle, as New Jersey is 10-0 ATS in road games second half of this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The LCC consensus is smoking hot with four straight winners here and tries for No. 5 with St. John’s (7-0) in college hoops.

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System predicts NCAA Champion

The field of 64 is set; you like many people have filled out numerous brackets in a variety of pools and now it is time to start breaking down the various first round matchups, looking for edges and spotting those potential early round exits by favorites. Having the benefit of using the point spread helps in many cases and mustering up the courage on money line dogs is another way to make hard currency when betting college basketball. But what about the “home run” wager, picking the winner of the entire NCAA Tournament, which can offer a decent payout depending on the winner.

Even with the large field, most years, around 10 teams have legitimate chance of winning six games in a row. Long shots are great; however they don’t bring home the cash betting futures. In the last 13 years, only teams seeded 1, 2 or 3 have emerged as champions. Lute Olson’s 1997 Arizona Wildcats were the last team that was not among the top tier of teams as a four-seed. In the 1980’s, we had Danny Manning and the Miracles in 1988 as a sixth-seed and Jim Valvano’s incredible stretch in 1983 with North Carolina State.

Each year, the litany of ways to select a champion is trotted out. Among the various aspects that are all noteworthy are veteran players, point guard play and defensive shooting percentages. Each in their own right holds value and opens the window to opportunity.

A few years ago, I heard ESPN analyst Jimmy Dykes doing a game late in the season and he was talking about what characteristics make up a NCAA champion. I happened to be taping that game and able to save the information and do the research.

Here is his list and what has occurred.

• 9 of 9 past champions had a 10 or more games winning streak
• 8 of 12 past champions won their conference tournament
• 20 of 22 past champions had NBA player 6’8 or taller
• 21 of 22 past champions had NBA a guard

It is important to understand what each of these points mean. First, if a team has a long winning streak of 10 or more, to whatever degree, they must be a good team. This season, 24 teams that made the field of 65, have won this many games in a row. Some teams could schedule their way into this many wins consecutively; however in reviewing this list, you see this consists primarily of college basketball squads that ruled there conferences.

Number of consecutive wins: (Note- Four teams has two such streaks)

20 – Butler
19- Kentucky
17 – Murray State, Texas, Utah State
16 – UTEP
15- New Mexico (12), No. Iowa, Siena, BYU
14- Kansas (13), Purdue (10)
13- Wofford
12- Syracuse (11)
11- Morgan State, No. Texas, Oakland U. Sam Houston St., Villanova, West Virginia
10- Temple, Vanderbilt, Kansas State

The most notable absence from this list is No. 1 seed Duke. If one believes in the power of the numbers, than the Blue Devils are a non-factor, missing the top criteria.

From this point, we move to conference tournament champions. This is where we can start really eliminating teams. Let’s be honest, its obvious Wofford, Morgan State, No.Texas, Oakland and Sam Houston State have no shot at winning six games in a row against this field, thus we can eliminate that group from the field.

That leaves us with six teams that met the first and second variable that would at least in theory have chance to win the championship. Those teams would be West Virginia, No. Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Temple and Butler.

The next areas are somewhat subjective, however I watch a ton of college basketball (yes I have a life and wife) and went through a number of websites that discuss players with professional potential that are likely to be drafted in the NBA.

Starting with West Virginia, DeSean Butler has been in many discussions for national player of the year and looks the part of NBA player; nonetheless he is listed at 6’7, falling literally just short of this criterion. 6’9 Devin Banks might blossom in the years ahead, but has not yet been given such prominence. The Mountaineers have good college guards, yet nothing that appears to be pro material.

Northern Iowa has two players that might be better suited to play in the D-League or overseas in C Jordan Eglasedar and F Adam Koch. The Panthers have smallish guards that shoot the ball well from the perimeter and handle the rock, yet they lack the size or quickness to be next level players.

Bill Self is one of the best recruiters in the country and does he have talent. Cole Aldrich is sure-fire first round selection whenever he comes out and the Morris brothers (Marcus and Markieff) are 6’8 or 6’9 and getting better on regular basis. Sherron Collins is border-line to be NBA guard at 5’11, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be on NBA roster and be a like former Jayhawks guard Jacque Vaughn. The more likely candidate from the Kansas backcourt to draw a salary playing pro ball is freshman Xavier Henry.

You don’t have to have a “Basketball Jones” diploma to see John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson will all probably be playing for one of the 30 NBA teams next season, since most presume they are all coming out. Another year or two and 6’10 Daniel Orton will be joining his Kentucky teammates, along with possibly a couple more off of John Calipari’s squad.

Butler has the longest winning streak in college hoops and is battled tested. Are they really good enough to win a NCAA Tournament, most likely not, but that hasn’t stopped NBA scouts from getting a closer look at sophomore Gordon Hayward. Also, guard Shelvin Mack has a number of positive qualities and like Hayward is just second year player who as of yet does not have a ceiling on his talent.

Temple has a pair of dandy guards in Ryan Brooks and Juan Fernandez. Brooks is a senior and his name doesn’t show up in any draft-nik websites I went through. Fernandez is a good looking player, but seems to be more in the discovery stage in terms of his ability. 6’9 Levoy Allen’s stock is on the rise, but similar to Fernandez, is still moving up the charts for NBA prospects, not on them.

While this might be more boring than oatmeal, Kansas and Kentucky are the two teams that meet all four quadrants of this study. While it is more fun to pick the right team from out of the pack, choosing the right winner is more important. Hope this helps you make a greater evaluation as to what teams could be the NCAA national basketball champions. Good Luck.

St. Patrick's Day System for Boston Celtics

This Atlantic Division matchup is unusual to say the least on St. Patrick’s Day. In New York and Boston reside thousands of folks with Irish heritage and a whole lot of wannabe’s at least for a day. Both the Knicks and Celtics want to prove their heritage as winning championship franchises when they meet Boston.

New York is trying for three consecutive wins and covers for the first time since the first week of 2010. The Knicks are at their final stop of five game road trip, having ended Dallas’ 13-winning streak in thunderous fashion 128-94 and following that up with extending Philadelphia’s home woes with 94-84 victory, both as underdogs.

The Celtics has been more unstable than an Irish patron leaving an Irish pub after several hours visit on St. Patty’s day in their last three contests. At home, Boston blasted Indiana by 19 points and Detroit by 26, shooting 58.4 percent and even better 62.2 percent in the latter. Sandwiched in between was one quality opponent, Cleveland, and they lost 104-90, converting just 40 percent of launched attempts.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the C’s as nine-point favorites with total of 208 and a super system is available that figures Boston might be the right play.

Play Against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more.

This scintillating system is 27-7 ATS, 79.4 percent the last 14 seasons and this is the first time it has popped up all year. New York might be off consecutive covers, however they are 10-19 ATS this season when in this spot. Boston has dominated recent visits be the Knickerbockers, winning six in a row (4-1-1 ATS).

Give consideration to this stout system along with that Guinness that might be in your near future.

Tuesday's Tops

I messed up somehow on the trend yesterday, however it is for good today and threw in another as extra. The Free Play from the Left Coast Connection was good again and they have another. The Top Trend in is the NBA and is 82.9 percent, sweet! Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- I thought Tiger Woods would come back for the Bay Hill, but after thinking about, The Masters is what makes most sense for him. Very limited media credentials, the cream of the crop for golf fans who I would expect for the most part will support him. Granted El Tigre is putting off the inevitable, but once he states his case, all he has to do is refer to what he’s already said.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3dailywinners.net

Free Basketball System -1) Play On road teams like Charlotte when the line is +3 to -3, off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 45-55 percent on the season. This system comes up at 29-6 ATS, 82.9 percent.

Free Hockey Trend - 2) Obviously made an error somewhere to get this trend for yesterday, thus will keep for today instead. Minnesota is 11-2 against the money line off a home win scoring four or more goals this season. Here is a BONUS trend with Minny theme – The T-Wolves are 3-19 ATS versus teams who average seven or less steals a game this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The LCC looks for a fourth straight winner here and takes underdog Fairfield in college hoops.

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Kansas the favorite and how the rest shakes out

This is in many ways one of the most unusual years in college basketball and possibly it might be a sign of future events as it moves along. Kansas was the deserved No.1 seed of the whole tournament and while West Virginia made a late push, all four top seeds have earned their position at the top of respective brackets. (We all know who Ashley Judd likes)

This year more than ever, no whining about the teams that didn’t get in, if it weren’t for the usual upsets by teams that end up winning conference championships, it would have even harder to fill the field of 65 teams, since all the teams that didn’t make it had more than enough bad losses to offset what qualities wins they manufactured.

My eyes are blurry from watching over 150 college basketball games this season and this is whom I see in the Sweet 16, starting in the Midwest region.

In March, you need a number of factors to win six games and be crowned the kings of college basketball. At the top of the list is talent and this why coach Bill Self continues to win everywhere he goes, the man can recruit. Kansas (32-2, 14-16-1) has a terrific point guard in Sherrod Collins, size and scoring in the paint with Cole Aldrich and the Morris brothers and Xavier Henry has his sweet looking three-point shot back. Kansas wins be 18 points a game and was a nation’s best 8-1 against the RPI’s Top 25. Lehigh (22-10) won the Patriot League regular and postseason, but should not provide much opposition; however being 26-point underdog could draw wagering support.

I was surprised to see Northern Iowa (28-4, 21-10 ATS) as a ninth seed, as they were a Top 30 team all season and won the Missouri Valley regular season and postseason tourney. The Panthers concede just 54.3 points per game and might feel underappreciated against UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS) who has to have guard Tre’Von Willis at 100 percent after suffering mildly sprained ankle in MWC semis. No. 8 seeds are just 46-54 against No.9 seeds and Northern Iowa is a 1.5-point underdog and will try and win NCAA game for the first time in 20 years.

Michigan State (24-8, 12-19 ATS) will have some early problems with athletic New Mexico State (22-11); however the Aggies are a mirage of sorts, winning by less than a point per game (+0.8) despite 22 victories and coughs up 77.8 points per game. The Spartans are 13-point favorites and need point guard Kalin Lucas to regain form prior to injury to move beyond this contest.

Rumors around Houston had coach Tom Penders on the bubble, to keep his job that is, instead the Cougars are in NCAA Tournament for first time in 18 years. Houston (19-15, 14-16 ATS) has the nation’s leading scorer in Aubrey Coleman and fellow guard Kelvin Lewis can also bury shots, it will be how they defend Maryland (23-8, 16-10 ATS) that will make the difference as nine-point underdogs. Before lame effort against Georgia Tech in ACC quarterfinals, the Terps has won nine of ten (8-2 ATS). A refocused Maryland and Greivis Vasquez could score a bundle on Houston off four games in four days. How about first to 100 wins.

Ohio State (27-7, 17-16-1 ATS) might have the best five players with diverse skills in the country, led by Evan Turner. UC-Santa Barbara (20-9, 17-11 ATS) was Big West champs and has conference player of the year Orlando Johnson, but can the Gauchos (nickname is a top seed for certain) handle Buckeyes ability to score in bunches? Linemakers are saying no with Ohio State a 17-point chalk.

The 7 vs.10 matchup in the Midwest is delightful study contrast in styles. Oklahoma State (22-10, 15-10-1 ATS) is guard-oriented, with their sharp-shooter James Anderson and Georgia Tech (22-12, 15-12-1 ATS) plays best going inside to Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors. The Yellow Jackets commit way too many turnovers, which is why they are probably 1.5-point dogs, in spite of ability to control the lane.

No.3 Georgetown (23-10, 17-12 ATS) is one the best teams in the country when their top three players are “on” like they were in Big East tourney. Too much power and size for Hoyas, but the dynamic guard duo of Armon Bassett and D.J. Cooper for Ohio U. (21-14, 18-12 ATS) could make it interesting as 13-point underdogs if they can combine for 50 or more points.
San Diego State (25-8, 18-13 ATS) to upset Tennessee (23-8, 13-17 ATS)? Not sure as sixth seeds are 69-31 SU over 11th seeds and the Aztecs are pitiful 61.7 percent from the free throw line. The Vols can play defense (39.4 percent), however San Diego State is 11-7 SU and ATS away from home.

Midwest Region Sweet 16 teams – Kansas Maryland Ohio State Georgetown

West Regional Round 1 Betting Preview

Syracuse (28-4, 19-9 ATS) was sent out West after losing last two games, which might be to their benefit. The Orangemen have had time to get healthier, which is very important for Arinze Onuaku (reports are he will miss first game). No No.1 seed has ever lost to a No. 16 (100-0), but Syracuse lost to Vermont (25-9) a few seasons ago in the first round as a fourth seed. The Orangemen didn’t lose a game outside the RPI Top 50, is 10-3 ATS away and is posted 17.5-point favorite.

They will face the winner of Gonzaga (26-6, 15-11-2 ATS) and Florida State (22-9, 8-18 ATS), where something has to give. The Zags are fifth in the country in offensive field goal percentage (49.1) and the Seminoles are first in field goal percentage defense (37.4). Gonzaga’s defense is better than Florida State’s offense; nevertheless the Noles are still a 1.5-point favorite.
UTEP (26-6, 14-14 ATS) was upset by Houston in C-USA final, however it was their third game in 36 hours and they were dead in their sneakers at the end when they lost. That won’t be the case against Butler (28-4, 13-19 ATS), who has issues with athletic teams. The Bulldogs can’t run and gun with the Miners or they fall in classic 5 vs. 12 matchup, with the higher seed run of the mill 20-16 SU the last nine years. Butler is favored by 2.5-points at Bookmaker.com, however UTEP holds teams to 38.8 percent shooting and averages almost nine steals game. Upset brewing?

Another possible upset is fourth seeded Vanderbilt (24-8, 15-14 ATS) against Ohio Valley champion Murray State. Vandy is 3-3 SU in last six outings and the Racers shoot over 50 percent and hold opposing teams to 38.6 percent. The Commodores may win; nonetheless taking the three points with Murray State (30-4, 15-13-1 ATS) might be valuable.

The Sun Belt champs North Texas (24-8) like to play all 94 feet and could be troublesome for team looking ahead and are 17-7-1 ATS this year. Unfortunately, Kansas State (26-7, 19-9 ATS) rarely takes a night off with coach Frank Martin’s intensity and the Mean Green give up too many easy buckets in the paint. North Texas is on the receiving end of 16-points and could be above average first half wager.

BYU (29-5, 18-13 ATS) hasn’t been a factor in the tournament in recent appearances (last NCAA win was 1993), but that might change against very ordinary Florida squad. The Cougars are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country and what they may lack in quickness; they at least have tall timber to compete in the lane with the Gators. Florida (21-12, 15-13 ATS) is 1-4 in previous five and in the immortal words of former New York Yankee great Yogi Berra, the Gators “play good enough to lose”. Line makers have Cougs by 4.5 over Gainesville gang.

Oakland U. (26-8, 6-8 ATS) is 20-1 since Dec. 28; however is 0-4 against teams in the tournament, losing by 27.2 points a contest. Pittsburgh’s demeanor will determine if they cover the spread, like when the Panthers (24-8, 16-11-2 ATS) lost to Indiana and at South Florida. Pittsburgh is not always pretty, yet coach Jamie Dixon strives to squeeze the most out is talent and the Cats are 10-point faves.

Xavier (24-8, 20-11 ATS) and Minnesota (21-13, 17-16 ATS) is intriguing conflict. Both teams are well-coached and play solid defense. The Musketeers are better offensively at 80 points per game and forward Jason Love has to be smart and not get into foul trouble; otherwise the edge goes to the bigger Golden Gophers who can score easier in the paint if Love is on the bench. For Hoosier Jamal Crawford is now part of the X-men and looks to show the Big Ten the wrong team is favored.

West Region Sweet 16 teams –Syracuse Murray State Kansas State Pittsburgh

South Regional Round 1 Betting Preview

It’s hard to call a top seed a dark horse, yet that is how this Duke (29-5, 18-14-1 ATS) team feels. Of the top 10 teams in the country over the last month, this is one squad that is unquestionably better today than a month ago; pencil them into Sweet 16 this tournament.

For the California (23-10, 19-13 ATS) and Louisville (20-12, 10-17 ATS) contest, assigning each a heads or tails might be the best way to choose a winner. Cal won regular season Pac-10 title in mediocre league, yet can’t discount good guard play and 8-2 SU and ATS finish. The Cardinals are too unpredictable from game to game to figure and could win or lose by 15 or more points. No wonder this game opened as a Pick.

Utah State (27-7, 19-10-1 ATS) is a good squad, but faced only three teams in the RPI Top 50 (1-2). The Aggies will take on the Aggies from Texas A&M (23-9, 18-10 ATS), who have many of the same qualities, except they are bigger and stronger and from a superior conference. Big teams with rebounders bother Utah State, yet they are still only a three point underdog.

Siena (27-6, 16-13-2 ATS) will be a popular choice to upset Purdue (27-5, 13-18-1 ATS) as four point dogs, who were putrid in Big Ten semis, being waxed by 27. Nevertheless, Boilermaker pride and stifling defense gives them a chance and people are thinking of prior Saints squads that had success in the tournament. This Siena team is not nearly as athletic.

Honestly was shocked to see Villanova (24-7, 18-12 ATS) a two seed with five defeats in last seven games. With Scottie Reynolds and other guards they do present matchup difficulties, but falter in the paint area offensively and defensively. Robert Morris (23-11, 3-4 ATS) will provide first game opposition as 18.5 point underdogs, led by freshman Karon Abraham. For trivia buffs, Robert Morris was known as the "Financier of the American Revolution" and first president George Washington lived in his mansion for his two terms in Philadelphia, which was then the nation’s capital.

Richmond (26-7, 19-10-1 ATS) and St. Mary’s (26-5, 20-9-1 ATS) is excellent confrontation, with the winner getting Nova. Both have been sharp plays as visitors, with Richmond 13-5 and St. Mary’s 9-4 against the spread. Two keys- How the Gaels contain guard Kevin Anderson and what the Spiders do with center Omar Samhan. Richmond is two-point pick.

The most complete No. 3 seed is Baylor (25-7, 16-9 ATS), with size and quickness all over the court and are 11.5-point faves over Southland Conference champions Sam Houston State (27-6), who distributes the ball well with a league leading 20.4 assists per game.

Baylor is presumed to take on the winner of Notre Dame (23-11, 17-10-1 ATS) and Old Dominion (26-8, 12-17-1 ATS) contest. The Monarchs hold opposing teams to only 57.1 points a game and really crash the offensive glass. The Irish change in style has meant more wins and improved defense. What club shoots better and has rebound edge is your winner.

South Region Sweet 16 teams –Duke Texas A&M Villanova Baylor

East Regional Round 1 Betting Preview

Can a team as young as Kentucky (32-2, 16-15 ATS) really win six strenuous games without cracking? If talent is best predictor, than the Wildcats certainly have a great shot with no less than three NBA players on the roster, with DeMarcus Cousins, John Wall and Patrick Paterson. Kentucky is a 20-point favorite over East Tennessee State (20-14) and after dispatching of them will face one of two fading teams in the second round.

Texas (24-9, 11-18 ATS) is the lowest seeded team at 8th that was ever No.1 in the nation in a given season and Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) was heavily scrutinized, losing five of last six outings. The Demon Deacons are averaging measly 60.2 points a contest in their last five and connect on only 66 percent from the charity stripe. Texas is a 4.5-point favorite and as long as they have the lead the Longhorns are fine. However since January, Texas collapses like a folding chair went faced with adversity, how will they react Thursday?

Cornell (27-4, 16-10 ATS) might be a super pick, being one of the best Ivy League teams in years and playing Kansas even for 35 minutes and Syracuse close to the same early in the season. Cornell knocks down 48.1 percent from the field, which includes 43.4 percent from beyond the arc. What holds the Big Red back as four-point underdogs is facing Temple (28-5, 22-12 ATS), who won the A-10 and does all the same things Cornell does, with bigger and quicker athletes. The Owls hold opposing teams to just 27.8 percent from three-point land.

In the battle of W’s, Wisconsin (23-8, 17-12 ATS) should whip Wofford (26-8, 16-11 -2 ATS), yet the Terriers might have enough bite to keep it close as 10-point underdogs, having been victorious in 16 of last 17 (10-5-2 ATS). This might be the lowest scoring game of the first round.

West Virginia’s (27-6, 13-19 ATS) size and strength will be way too much for MEAC champ Morgan State (27-9, 5-5 ATS) and they will await the winner of Clemson (21-10, 14-14 ATS) and Missouri (22-10, 14-12 ATS).

This will be extreme battle of wills, as both are full court pressing teams, seeking to create chaos. Neither of these Tigers’ teams is as effective away from home, as Clemson is 7-8 SU (4-11 ATS) and Missouri is 6-8 SU and both see declining points per game in road uniforms. The club that commits the fewer turnovers and scores buckets on the backend of press is the victor. Oddmakers see this one very close with Clemson a one point choice.

New Mexico (29-4, 18-13-1 ATS) enjoyed a splendid campaign and is a well-deserved three seed. The Lobos had their 15-game winning streak snapped by San Diego State in MWC semi-finals, which will only work to help coach Steve Alford make his surprising club more humble starting a new season. New Mexico will have to be very aware of guard Anthony Johnson of Montana (22-9, 18-11), who scored 42 points in Big Sky tournament championship game. The Grizzlies are receiving nine-points in this one.

The Pac-10 was in danger as recently as three weeks ago of only sending one team to the tournament, when Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS) started playing like the team the pre-season publications forecasted. The Huskies have won eight of nine and seven in a row, becoming Pac-10 champions, winning the post-season tourney. The complete turnaround has happened by being mentally tougher away from Seattle, having won six straight (5-1 ATS). They will face similar Marquette (22-11, 17-10 ATS) club that can also motor and is a two-point favorite. This contest involves two star players not everyone is familiar with, Lazar Hayward of the Golden Eagles and Quincy Pondexter of Washington and that alone is reason to watch.

East Region Sweet 16 teams –Kentucky Temple West Virginia Washington

Monday's Top Plays and Big News

I almost forget about the time change (In Arizona it doesn’t change) thus I’m an hour late. Yesterday we perfect 3-0 and change things a bit with NHL Top Trend and the LCC goes after yet another Winner with Top Free play. Good Luck

What I’m informing you today- Yours truly will be on The Boomer and the Babe Show at 11AM Pacific on KXXT, 1010 AM in the Phoenix market Tuesday. You can also listen or watch the show live or recorded on www.boomerandthebabe.com The video of the show will be on the home page. Audio only is at www.familyvaluesradio.net.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) See article below.

Free Hockey Trend - 2) Minnesota is 11-2 against the money line off a home win scoring four or more goals this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The LCC is solidly behind the New York Knickerbockers to win against the former Iverson’s.

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ALL Systems go on NBA Monday

While most of you have been spending the morning hours going over NCAA tournament brackets, discussing the upcoming matchups and looking at what underdogs could pull off outright upsets on Thursday and Friday, their will actually be basketball played tonight, in the NBA. Here is a look at the best systems to consider, with a pair of televised tilts as well. Sides and totals from DiamondSportsbook.com.

New York (+3, 210) at Philadelphia 7:00E MSG

The Knicks have not had many highlights to their season, but Saturday night was one of them, with a stirring 124-98 road upset of Dallas as 10.5-point underdogs, ending the Mavs 13-game winning streak. This sets up New York for totals play as road teams off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, with the total at 210 or higher are 41-14 UNDER the last 14 years.

Detroit (+9, 195) at Boston 8:00E ESPN

The Boston Celtics didn’t show a great deal of energy in being handled by Cleveland 104-90 as seven point underdogs on Sunday afternoon. If that matchup didn’t bring out the best in the Celtics, it would not figure Detroit would either, especially playing their fifth game in a week. Home favorites with a 60 to 70 percent winning record, facing a club with a 25 to 40 percent losing record are 9-33 ATS since 1996.

Denver (-2.5, 216) at Houston

The Nuggets have reeled off six straight wins, including the last three on the road. Denver was particularly impressive at its last stop in Memphis, where they scored 125 points, shooting 58 percent from the field, winning by 17 points. The Nuggets are second in the NBA in scoring at 107.4 points per game and teams that average more than 102 points a contest, against a decent offensive team (98-102 PPG), with a line of +3 to -3 after a blowout win by 15 or more are 32-9 ATS the previous five years.

Washington (+11, 202) at Utah

The Jazz have walking wounded and it showed defensively in their last game against Oklahoma City, falling 119-111, as the Thunder shot 60 percent as team. Oddsmakers don’t seem to be too concerned Utah won’t bounce back at home, since the Jazz lead the NBA in field goal percentage at 49 percent. In this confrontation, look to play on teams that shoot 48 percent or better and conceded 55 percent or more in last outing, to be a spread winner with 32-9 ATS record since 2005.

L.A. Lakers (-8, 225) at Golden State 10:30E ESPN

Pau Gasol has been publicly critical of Kobe Bryant’s ball distribution tactics. Bryant to his credit has keep his mouth shut, knowing his team needs Gasol later in the post-season and blasting him won’t resolve the issue. The Lakers have won their last two games and have had a break in the schedule which has allowed for more down time and just practice. Road favorites off a road win against division rival playing four or less games in 10 days are 10-3 ATS the last five seasons.

New Orleans (+2.5, 203.5) at L.A. Clippers

The Hornets continue to falter, losing seven of eight and haven’t covered the spread once in this stretch. New Orleans was hammered in the desert yesterday 120-106 and travels to Los Angeles trying to break the drought. NBA teams off a road loss by 10 points or more, against opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more (Clippers lost by 30 at San Antonio Saturday) are 66-34 OVER in next contest.

Brackets Announced Today

On Friday we posted a 2-1 day and today the choices are much thinner. We have a NBA system that is 88.5 percent, but tough to swallow. The Big Ten title game has quite an angle and the LCC has a unanimous pick in the A-10. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- This has been a wild ride for me the last few days betting conference tournaments with 4-5, 4-7 and 7-1 days.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against favorites like Milwaukee who are + or (-) three points per game differential, against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after three straight games where both teams scored 95 points or less. Though the Bucks seem like obvious play, this 23-3 ATS system takes me off the game.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) The favorite in Ohio State and Minnesota matchup is 8-0 ATS.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection is 100 percent (7-0) behind Temple to win and cover.

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Big 10 (11) Title Game Preview

The Minnesota Golden Gophers know how to add simple numbers. If they can count 3, 2 and 1, Minnesota will be the Big Ten postseason champions for 2010. The Golden Gophers dropped third-seeded Michigan State 72-67 in overtime on Friday night and humiliated second seeded Purdue 69-42 yesterday and have their sights set on No. 1 Ohio State in the final game before the NCAA Tournament begins.

This is the first time the Golden Gophers have playing for the Big Ten championship and they believe in themselves. “I feel we can compete with any team in the country and I feel we can compete with any team in the Big Ten,” said forward Ralph Sampson III, who had a team-high 13 points Saturday. “We’ve proven it in this tournament right now.”

Minnesota is coached expertly by Tubby Smith and has won seven of nine and is adding up spread wins faster than the 10,000 lakes are melting with 8-1 ATS run. The Gophers were actually presumed to be better most of the season but again struggled away from home (4-9 and 3-10 ATS before hitting Indianapolis this weekend) until now.

Minnesota has place a guillotine on opposing offenses in this tournament, holding them to 35.6 percent shooting and is 9-2 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season.

Ohio State is definitely living by the March basketball motto of “survive and advance”. The Buckeyes have won on a combination of luck, skill and opponents breakdowns to reach the championship, seeking a third title.

Evan Turner sank a 37-footer at the buzzer to shock Michigan in the quarter-finals and needed 50 minutes to eliminate Illinois yesterday afternoon. The Wolverines used poor judgment in allowing Turner to have such a good look at the basket for winning shot (though he deserves credit for making it) and the Fighting Illini had two chances at the end of regulation and the first overtime to oust Ohio State and never managed a shot.

The Buckeyes are 14-5 ATS after scoring 80 points or more (though it took awhile) over the last three seasons and are surviving on guile as much as skill. “Sometimes you just have to will your way and make things happen and that’s it,” said Turner.

Ohio State is favored by four-points, with total of 129.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com and is 7-3 ATS vs. teams with a winning record, but only 1-4 ATS against foes on neutral floors. Minnesota is 5-0 ATS the last five times they’ve been made an underdog (4-1 SU) and is 6-0 OVER after allowing 55 points or less this season.

This is the last conference championship, which will begin at 3:30 Eastern on CBS and the favorite in the matchup is perfect 8-0 SU and ATS.

SEC and A-10 Game Previews

It’s hard to argue with the two earlier matchups on Sunday in the Southeastern Conference and the Atlantic 10. Kentucky and Mississippi State won their respective divisions in the SEC and Temple and Richmond were battling for the league crown in the A-10 right from the moment league play commenced. Three of the four teams are a lock to hear their name Sunday, while one will have to play with great urgency to make sure their name is called.

Bulldogs still on the bubble

Mississippi State is in the SEC title tilt for a second consecutive year and according to those that follow how the brackets are made, are still situated atop the bubble. Coach Rick Stansbury understands his team better than anyone and knows what it has been through in putting together 23-10 campaign. The Bulldogs lost star recruit Renardo Sidney to ineligibility, suffered a series of injuries and gotten far less than expected out of point guard position.

Stansbury also knows a little better play at point probably turns around a few of the six losses into wins, losing those contests by five or fewer points. He can’t change the past, but his Bulldogs can assure their future with the upset of Kentucky. Off their win over Vanderbilt, Mississippi State is 14-3 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game and has to find a way to slow down the Big Blue machine.

Kentucky might have put in the best performance of any top level team in the tournament in blasting 15th ranked Tennessee 74-45. Freshmen DeMarcus Cousins and John Wall paced the Wildcats as Kentucky shot 52.1 percent while holding the Volunteers to 19 first half points and 30.9 percent shooting for the game. John Calipari’s crew is 6-3 ATS in last nine outings.
Mississippi State feels they are up to the challenge, having lost to Kentucky in overtime 81-75 and DiamondSportsbook.com has them as 7.5-point underdogs with total of 138.

“They’re one of the best teams in the country, and when they came to our place, we had them, but it slipped out of our hands,” said Bulldogs forward Jarvis Varnado. “We want this rematch, and we’ll be up for it.” The gang from Starkville is 10-4 ATS as an underdog.

This SEC showdown begins at 1:00 Eastern on ABC and Kentucky is 0-7 ATS after allowing 50 or less points.

Owls and Spiders collide

Not exactly two common nicknames, however Temple and Richmond have played uncommon basketball all season long. The Owls are a real hoot with what they accomplished this season. Temple’s 28 wins are the most since the 2001 campaign, they knocked off a Top 5 team this season (city rival Villanova) and broke into the Top 25 for the first time in nine years.

Top seeded Temple is seeking its third straight A-10 postseason title and features three features double-figure scorers in Ryan Brooks, Juan Fernandez and Lavoy Allen. The Owls have been the bettor’s best friend with 22-11 ATS record this season and they are now 9-1 ATS in March since last year.

Richmond finished with the third seed and played a highly entertaining contest with Xavier on Saturday, coming out on top in overtime 89-85 as three-point underdogs. The Spiders are led by the sensational Kevin Anderson, who despite being 5’11 can get any shot on the floor he wants, similar to Tony Parker of San Antonio.

Anderson isn’t the only quality Richmond player, with David Gonzalvez and others able to wisely find shots and openings in coach Chris Mooney offense. The Spiders are 15-5 ATS away from home against A-10 competitors the last two years.

Richmond is a four-point underdog, with total listed at 115.5 and has tremendous respect for their opponent.

“They look great,” coach Chris Mooney said of Temple. “They are one of the best teams in the country. I think coach (Fran) Dunphy is one of the best coaches in the country. Their defense is suffocating. Their offense is very, very good and efficient. It’s going to be an enormous challenge.” The Spiders were up to the challenge once handing Temple their last loss 71-54 at home, nine games ago.

Temple is stellar 8-1 since that time and is unbelievable 8-0 ATS in conference tournament games over the last three seasons. Both teams get the national spotlight with a 1:00 Eastern start on CBS.