Sports Wagering Info, July 5, at 3Daily Winners

Free Plays at 3Daily Winners have hit three in a row and are 15-4 in last 19, the next potential winner is up. We have a terrific Trend that has won 12 of 13 times it’s arisen and a bit of a different System is applicable in afternoon action on Fox, having won 76.5 percent of the time. Good Luck

Free Baseball System -1) This season, teams like Boston, who have had exactly three games of 10 or more hits and next game is on the road,are 12-39, 23.5 percent. Play Against the Red Sox.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Chicago White Sox are 12-1 against the money line revenging two straight losses vs opponent as a home favorite over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) A low key member of the Left Coast Connection is blazing hot 17-4, +13.9 units in last 21 personal plays and has hit three in a row here. Tonight he’s backing Tampa Bay to confuse K.C.

Happy Fourth of July

Happy Independence Day to you and thanks for taking a few minutes to stop by on a true American holiday. Free Trend play and Free Pick were both Winners again, for 2-1 day. Our smart better in hotter than a firecracker and has another play ready. Today’s Top Trend is in the red hot desert and the System play takes us to the Windy City, having been an explosive winner at 84 percent. Good Luck and have a FANTASTIC Day.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like Oakland, who are a poor AL hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a good bullpen like the White Sox (ERA 3.75 or less), playing on Friday. System is a real firecracker at 42-8, 84, percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) San Diego is 7-24 against the money line after two or more consecutive road games this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Two in a row for a quiet member of the Left Coast Connection, who is on 15-3 roll, +12.9 units in last 18 plays and is backing Minnesota to create more fireworks against Cleveland.

Sports Wagering Info, July 3, at 3Daily Winners

Free Trend play and Free Pick were both Winners for 2-1 day. Today’s Trend is awesome 91.3 percent looking at a total. Our Free Pick person from LCC is rolling at 13-2 and likes a contest in the American League. Tonight’s System selection is powerful 81.2 percent and is backed up by an angle which is even better (85 percent). Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites, like Baltimore with a money line of -150 or more, having won two of their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%), playing a bad team (38 to 46%) like Kansas City. This simple system is 65-15, 81.2 percent the last three years and is backed up with the Orioles being 17-3 vs. the Royals.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Atlanta Braves are 21-2 UNDER when an underdog of +110 to +150.

Free Baseball Selection -3) A nice winner from member of the Left Coast Connection, who is on 13-2 roll, +12.7 units in last 15 plays and is backing Detroit in Seattle tonight.

Baseball Betting Look Ahead by the Numbers

With Baltimore being the last team to complete 81 games or half the season, we have information to take into account how all 30 major league teams have played and try to surmise how they might play in the future based on these results. Noted baseball guru Bill James and Baseball Prospectus are considered two of the most respected names that helped usher baseball into this modern era of information. Among the tools are runs scored and runs allowed, providing a method to determine if any baseball team is overachieving or possibly not playing up to the level of skill they have shown for different reasons.

The numerology is quite simple; multiply the each number by itself and add the two together. Divided the runs scored figure by the total, to create a percentage. Take this percentage, multiply by either 81 or 162 to determine the number of wins and losses a team should have.

Example- Boston Red Sox record 49-32 after 81 games. They have scored 406 runs and allowed 336.

406 x 406 = 164836
336 x 336 = 112898
164836 + 112898 = 277732
164836 divided by 277732 = .593 percent
81 games x .593 = 48-33
162 games x .593 = 96 -66

This methodology shows Boston is just about where they should be and is on pace for another outstanding season. Here is a look at each team’s record and runs scored/run allowed at mid-point of the season.

AL East
Boston 49-32 406 -336
Tampa Bay 59-32 382-327
N.Y. Yankees 44-37 384-361
Baltimore 41-40 366-370
Toronto 38-43 334-311

AL Central
Chicago 46-35 393-308
Minnesota 44-37 389-385
Detroit 41-40 393-389
Cleveland 37-44 356-341
Kansas City 37-44 329-373

AL West
L.A. Angels 48-33 339-328
Oakland 44-37 357-298
Texas 41-40 445-458
Seattle 31-50 331-390

NL East
Philadelphia 43-38 411-337
Florida 42-39 385-403
Atlanta 40-41 369-324
N.Y. Mets 40-41 378-379
Washington 32-49 296-403

NL Central
Chicago 49-32 442-344
St. Louis 45-36 374-353
Milwaukee 44-37 364-366
Pittsburgh 38-43 394-446
Houston 38-43 357-393
Cincinnati 36-45 339-406

NL West
Arizona 41-40 363-355
L.A. Dodgers 38-43 331-328
San Francisco 35-46 324-371
Colorado 32-49 338-413
San Diego 32-49 298-377

That is a lot of numbers, thus let’s dissect what some of these means. The Toronto Blue Jays have not met expectations to this juncture and could be a Play On team the second half of the season. What two elements have to change is more clutch hitting to score runs. Toronto hitters are in the lower third of nearly all offensive statistics, if they could just move into the mid-level group, they improve immediately. Because of lack of run production, the bullpen, despite a solid ERA and closing numbers have lost 16 games for the Blue Jays. If the pitching maintains and the bats wake up a little, Toronto is on schedule to win 87 games for the season, looking at the possibility of 49-32 second half.

The Chicago White Sox are in first place in the AL Central, have suffered a few bumps, yet for the most part, played good baseball. For Pale Hose backers, the news gets even better since they should have even a better record. With a differential of +85 at the middle of the season, this equates to 50-31 record, a full four games better than they have shown. At the midpoint of the season, any number greater than three or five at the end of the season, is noteworthy positive or negative. With the White Sox starting pitching improving, the bullpen the best in the American League and the hitters becoming more consistent, Chicago should run away in the second half. Watch this closely, since their money line odds will only increase if the winning continues, now is the time to make plays on the South Siders.

The Cleveland Indians are among the bigger disappointments in baseball with 37-44 record, after being within one game of playing in the World Series. A number of players injured or in season long slumps, below average starts from main hurlers and a shaky bullpen, has added up to failure. Based on this stat, the Tribe should rebound to at least be respectable the rest of the way. They actually had a +15 differential, suggesting they should be better. What makes this a tough call is the mood of the front office. If they trade C.C. Sabathia or others, this is a moot point and should be ignored.

The Los Angeles Angels have had one of the best records in the AL all season, thanks to great starting pitching, quality fielding and closer Frankie Rodriguez. Take away any of those pieces and this is an ordinary club. The Angels are only +11 for differential, as next to last offense doesn’t score runs and middle relief has been battered with alarming numbers. If nothing changes, this will become Play Against squad and be overtaken by Oakland, who conceivably could have been three games better in the first half. The A’s scored more runs than the Angels and gave up fewer also. They can match L.A. starters, have better middle staff and are receiving better performances from inferior lineup. Watch Oakland.

The Phillies hitters have become quieter than a Philadelphia fan with his mouth taped shut and strapped to a chair. Nobody really believes this will last for the rest of the season and eventually they will come around. Their starting pitching is good enough in the National League, especially with the best bullpen in the bigs. Just watch for when the hits start being nine or more a game and start backing the Phils again.

Atlanta’s a challenging read at +45 differential. Injuries keep mounting to starting pitching, Chipper Jones has one injury after another, and they are starting to lose more home games. Though it appears the Braves are Play On team, tread lightly.

The Milwaukee Brewers finished 44-37 in the first half, however allowing two more runs than they scored suggests 40-41 was more accurate assessment. The Brewers still have road issues, are .500 against RH starters and average in putting crooked numbers on the board. The bullpen is serviceable, yet don’t think every one-run lead they take into the eighth inning, doesn’t have Milwaukee fans sitting up straighter and ordering another beer, just in case.

In truth, several teams will have far different records than imagined. Even so, the vast majority will have up and down spells and settle very close to what their percentage should be based on runs scored and runs allowed. This certainly is worth watching and using as reference point the rest of the season for wagering or other purposes. The following numbers are the projected end of the season records based on first 81-games runs scored and allowed.

AL East
Boston 96-66
Tampa Bay 93-69
N.Y. Yankees 86-76
Baltimore 80-82
Toronto 87-75

AL Central
Chicago 100-62
Minnesota 82-80
Detroit 82-80
Cleveland 84-78
Kansas City 71-91

AL West
L.A. Angels 83-79
Oakland 95-67
Texas 71-91
Seattle 68-94

NL East
Philadelphia 97-65
Florida 77-85
Atlanta 91-71
N.Y. Mets 81-81
Washington 57-105

NL Central
Chicago 101-61
St. Louis 85-77
Milwaukee 81-81
Pittsburgh 71-91
Houston 73-89
Cincinnati 66-96

NL West
Arizona 83-79
L.A. Dodgers 82-80
San Francisco 70-92
Colorado 65-97
San Diego 62-100

Sports Wagering Info, July 2, at 3Daily Winners

A rotten day for our free information yesterday, as Toronto blew a 6-2 lead in the late innings, to at least give us a shot at one win. Like a NFL cornerback, you forget and move on and 3DW has a Totals System play that has yet to lose in 2008. Today’s best angle is 100 percent winner and the Free play is from a quirky member of the LCC. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) The Dodgers and Astros meet again and it is best to PLAY OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10 (currently 9), in a game involving two marginal losing teams (46 to 49 percent), playing on Wednesday. This Totals system is 42-14, 75 percent since 2004 and perfect 4-0 this season.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Joe Saunders and the Angels are is 11-0 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opposition by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) A person who wishes identity to be unknown from the Left Coast Connection, though is a noted nickel player in Nevada, is 11-2, +10.6 units in last 13 and is riding Baltimore tonight.

NL Worst (West) Strictly Play Against Teams

It was the late king of the one-liners, Henny Youngman who had the joke, “Take my wife – Please”. This would be an apt description of the National League West, where only Arizona is over .500 on the season. Just a half a season removed from having two teams competing for the National League crown last October, this division is about as popular as an SUV gulping 12 miles a gallon. Let’s take a look back to figure this mess out.

In 2004, the Dodgers won the division with 93 wins, San Francisco won 91 and San Diego was better than competitive with 87 victories. 2005 saw a complete reversal of fortunes, as three teams in the division lost 87 or more games and the Padres were good fodder for jokes as division champs at 82-80. 2006 saw a sharp improvement in a very competitive NL West, with Los Angeles and San Diego both in the postseason and Arizona and Colorado at least respectable at 76-86. Last year, everything was on the upswing for this division, with four teams over .500 and three teams were battling for two spots in the NL playoffs. Talk about your Wild, Wild West!

What changed so dramatically, that this division is collectively -65.9 units, which includes games against each other, where somebody has to win?

We’ll start with first place Arizona. On May 18, the Diamondbacks were 28-16 and looked every bit as good, if not better than the team that won 90 games a season ago. Most figured Arizona would cruise along this season; however the cracks were apparent last year, they just never manifested themselves. The D-Backs allowed 20 more runs than they scored, more befitting a team winning 79 games, not 90. Another factor of concern coming into the season was the Snakes 32-20 record in one run games in 2007. This was easily the most in baseball and the highest winning percentage also. These tend to be random events from year to year and Arizona would need marked improvement in other areas to compensate. Arizona hitters like to swing aggressively, a little too aggressively, since they are third in the majors in strikeouts. When they score runs, this is easy to overlook, however when your team is 13-24 in last 37 games, not so much. How bad has the offense been, they have scored three or fewer runs 72.9 percent of the time (27) in the last 37 trips to the ball yard.

The Dodgers roster has been overhauled the last few years and has introduced a number of young players like Russell Martin, James Loney and Matt Kemp into the lineup. While the talent is evident, so is the youth, with plenty of mistakes going around. Other veteran players like Jeff Kent have not produced and Nomar Garciaparra and Andruw Jones have been on the DL. Not having an ace like Brad Penny (5-9, 5.88) has had trickle down affect on starting staff and an offense that is 27th in runs scored only exacerbates problems. Down 11 units, Dodgers backers need to see offense come together to help a decent pitching staff to make a run.

With the departure of Barry Bonds, San Francisco can finally go a new direction and do what they should have done three years ago, rebuild from the ground up. Despite 36-47 record, in many ways the Giants have been better than anticipated in certain areas. For bettors, they have the best money line unit record (still negative) at -5.3 units in the division. They are one of only seven teams to be at or above .500 (22-22, +6.3 units) and have a winning record of 15-13 in the division. Certain all-star, Tim Lincecum (8-1, 2.39) gives San Fran a chance every time he pitches and 25-year Jonathan Sanchez has surprised, with Giants winning 13 of his 17 starts. The 26th ranked offense is not going to score many runs, with lack of power and speed, but if starting pitchers Matt Cain and Barry Zito could pitch anywhere near ability, these goofy Giants could be contenders in the wacked-out West.

The laws of gravity finally caught up with San Diego. With only 1B Adrian Gonzalez a reliable offensive threat, the Padres are no threat to score many runs. The starting pitchers have way too much pressure on them to be almost perfect because of lack of run production and the wear shows on their faces and demeanor on the mound with runners on base. Even when the starting pitchers give them a chance, former closer extraordinaire Trevor Hoffman, is 40 years old and he is why San Diego has the worst save percentage in the big leagues at 48.4 percent. Too many poor personnel decisions and lack of production is why the Pads are the best Play Against team in baseball.

The Colorado Rockies as it turns out were a mirage. Much like seeking a Taco Bell at 3 AM with a belly full of Coors, everything was not as it appeared. Whether they put the baseballs in a humidor or not, Colorado has to score runs to win and averaging 4.2 per game is not enough, particularly when your team has the third-worst ERA in baseball at 4.83. The Rockies have had their share of injuries with Troy Tulowitzki and others missing time. Tulowitzki can speak with candor about what he has seen. "We haven't played well at all," admitted the shortstop. "We deserve to be in last place." Colorado is putrefactive 12-30 (-15.6) on the road, 22-42 (-21.6) taking on RH starters and 11-23 (-12.5) in this decaying division. Because Colorado has not hit with authority and the pitching reeks like a bottle of Coors Light left open behind a chair from a party after a week, the Rocks are rancid 11-24 in games decided by four or more runs.
With a half a season left, either playing against or staying away from the NL Worst is prudent attack.

Sports Betting Info for Tuesday July 1

Another solid 2-1 day, as we look for another sweep of the board here at 3Daily Winners. Today’s system is courtesy from our friends at StatFox.com and is stellar 84 percent winner. Tuesday’s Top Trend is a reverse perfect angle, check it out. The Free Play was a winner again and is ready to deliver again. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON road favorites with a money line of -125 or more like Toronto, averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season, after two straight games with no home runs. This system is outstanding 42-8, 84 percent the last five seasons. (Courtesy of StatFox.com)

Free Baseball Trend -2) Washington is 0-10 against the money line with a tired bullpen, having thrown 13 or more innings over the last three games this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Mark from the LCC, hit his Free play and is a wonderful 13-4, +9 units in last 17 plays. He's backing the Cardinals to make it two in a row over the Metropolitans.

The American League blows away National League

Mercifully, the blood-letting has stopped, the National League can retreat back to its quaint little grouping and compete amongst itself with the knowledge that one team will emerge and be a World Series representative. Thank goodness baseball has history or like in the other major sports, fans would be clamoring to redo the playoff system based on what has again taken place.

With the New York Yankees and Pittsburgh having to make up one contest, the results won’t change much with the American League leading149-102, 59.3 percent. In the past, I’ve read and talked to handicappers who hate interleague play, since it throws off the normal flow or rhythm of teams. They are correct in one manner, while lacking intelligence at the same time. Play the American League and everything is just fine. To date, betting AL teams exclusively in 2008, netted +34.8 units of profit.

How dominant was the AL’s performance? Only Toronto (8-10), Cleveland (6-12) and Seattle (9-9) did not finish over .500 against National League counterparts. Compare that with just three clubs from the senior circuit had winning records. The N.Y. Mets and Cincinnati were 9-6 and Atlanta was 8-7, that’s it.

A trio of AL Central teams was really able to bolster their positions, whipping the NL. Minnesota was baseball best 14-4 (+12.3 units) in interleague play and has moved to within three games of first place Chicago White Sox, thanks to kicking National League tail. Detroit has been among the biggest disappointments in baseball, yet used a 13-5 record to crawl into third place in division and is now over .500 for the first time this season. Kansas City is 24-40 (-10.9 units) against teams in the American League; however with 13-5 (+9.3 units) mark versus NL, hopes for a .500 season are still within reach.

Why does the American League continue to dominate? The easy answer is better teams. This is shown in runs scored/runs allowed category. Only four teams in the AL have a negative number among the 14 clubs, with the NL Central having four all by themselves among the grand total of 10. Only four teams in the older league are five games or better over .500 in the standings, compared to seven on the junior circuit.

Though many of these numbers are not decisive, it speaks to the difference in the two leagues. From hitting perspective, the American League averages more runs, hits, doubles, total bases and runs batted in. They have a higher on-base percentage, batting average and slugging percentage than the NL. The only category that matters in which the National’s lead is home runs.

Pitching numbers are much the same. The AL has lower ERA, allows fewer hits per innings pitched, walks fewer batters and has lower batting averages against hitters. The only element the National League pitchers do better is having more strikeouts. The American League even has a slight edge in fielding. This year’s dominance was only surpassed by the AL’s wipeout of 2006.

I’d mentioned last week about playing against teams in last game of road trip (five or more played) and though it took a hit with rare nine games on Sunday (3-6), this angle still bares watching in the second half of the season at 94-59, 61.4 percent, good for +27. 8 units.

NBA Draft Thoughts

I wanted to make a few comments about the NBA Draft. No wonder following the NBA is so damn difficult, it makes no sense. Oh sure the Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley picks were predictable, despite rumors of Beasley having character issues that made him represented as Disney-like - Goofy.

It was how the rest of draft played out, that left me wondering. Numerous scouts wondered how Kevin Love was going to be able to get off jump shots, rebound with authority and play defense, literally days before the draft. Yet he’s picked fifth overall and is shipped almost immediately to the Land of 10,000 lakes. If he’s not Elton Brand, this was wasted pick.

The New York Knicks have the most dysfunctional roster in the league and take Danilo Gallinari? Now Gallinari is supposed to be the best Euro, but wait till he meets his new teammates. Hopefully he doesn’t learn how to talk “Knick” and become a malcontent himself.

The Milwaukee Bucks take Joe Alexander, who had a wonderful junior season at West Virginia and impressed several clubs with his athletic ability. However just a year ago, Milwaukee drafted Yi Jianlian to play small forward, despite his instance of wanting to play in bigger media market. After one season, Milwaukee trades what presumably was star of the future for Richard Jefferson, who happens to play the three spot, same as Alexander. Is this making sense, or do I need another Milwaukee Best?

There are other examples of what looks to be tomfoolery; however I’ve come to this conclusion. Taking players in the NBA draft is like buying futures, with a three-year window because of rookie salary cap. If it doesn’t look like a player is going to work out, move him and go on to the next one. If he looks like a keeper, tender him new contract and keep trying to build team. Of course the accountability factor of the GM is swept under the rug, or he is shown the door. No wonder the NBA is so hard to stomach.

Sports Betting Info for Monday June 30

Baltimore’s excellent bullpen couldn’t hold an extra inning lead, costing us a clean sweep yesterday. We will give it another try with a System play that is 16-2 since 2006. See what to expect from San Diego tonight in Top Trend and 3DW’s Free Plays are on 11-2 run and welcome a new sharpie on a hot streak. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like the White Sox, with a money line of -110 or higher vs. division opponents, after three consecutive games versus an interleague opponent. This system is 16-2. 88.8 percent the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) San Diego is 1-12 against the money line after three consecutive games versus an interleague opponent this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) We welcome Mark from the LCC, who is a tidy 11-3, +8.25 units in last 14 and is on the White Sox tonight.

Sports Betting Info for Sunday June 29

The System selection was our lone winner on Saturday and we’ll seek to close the week on a high note. Today’s System play is riding a hot underdog against a very good pitcher. The Trend goes against a struggling major league team who performs poorly after a bad offensive showing and the Free Play is on the West Coast. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like Milwaukee with a money line of -100 to -150, with a starting pitcher like Ben Sheets (9-1, 1.035 WHIP) whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL, where team's hitters strike out 7 or more times a game on the season. This swell little system is 24-9, 72.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Washington is 2-15 after scoring one or fewer runs in next outing.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection is 62-25 on consensus action in last 87 plays and is on the Angels to avoid the sweep, after losing last night despite not allowing any hits by the Dodgers.