Super Saturday in Store

Today is going to be a great day, I can feel it. Our Best System is in the SEC at 85.4 percent and on the underdog. The Top Trend is an important game in the MWC, looking at how one team performs (It’s not good). Our friend Slick Rick is making serious dough and has afternoon SEC Winner he believes. Good Luck

NEW Feature: Thanks for taking our poll, you thought Penn State vs Michigan was the toughest wager on the board.

What I thought last night – Can you believe Pam Anderson is out of cash! Maybe she can do “America’s Got Talent” and hook up with David Hasselhoff again. Or better yet a new tape with Tommy Lee.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Auburn in conference games, off an upset loss as a double digit home favorite. Since 1992, this system is 35-6 ATS, 85.4 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) BYU is 4-21 ATS after a two-game road trip the last 17 years, including a loser this season.

Free Football Pick -3) Slick Rick is 11-3 in his last 14 CFB plays and believes Alabama will win by 20 or more points.

Guaranteed College Football Winners Today!

The Platinum Sheet has a capper at 24-9-1 ATS in college football Best Bets. (Not me)

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Top Saturday College Football Tilts

What a great day! Meaningful college football games from coast to coast all day long. South Florida needs the upset in Western Pennsylvania to stay in Big East race. Big Ten contenders will be in action with both state of Michigan teams trying to defeat fellow members ahead of them in the standings. After last week’s bruising Red River Rivalry, both Texas and Oklahoma venture out on the Big 12 road. It’s the first of three important Mountain West matchups, this one in Provo. Tennessee and Alabama have long history of unusual outcomes, upset in the making? Finally, USC seeks revenge for its lone loss from 2008 playing host to a rested Oregon State squad. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com

South Florida (+6.5, 48.5) at Pittsburgh 12:00E BE Network/GP

South Florida (5-1, 2-2 ATS) emerges with its first loss after being defeated by Cincinnati 38-17. With a few extra days to prepare, the Bulls get ready for another Big East bash at Pittsburgh. Surprisingly, South Florida’s offense has kept pace with redshirt freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels, taking over for the injured Matt Grothe. Daniels style compliments Grothe’s, being able to run and throw the pigskin effectively. USF is second in the Big East in scoring (33.7) and third in total offense. The Bulls defense has been stingy all year in allowing 286 yards per game (18th nationally) and has been one of the best in the conference in allowing seven red zone touchdowns. The Bulls are just 2-6 ATS in road sandwich contest.

Pittsburgh (6-1, 4-2 ATS) has a bit more rest than normal also, after handling Rutgers 24-17 on the road. The Panthers have turned into a fine-tuned offensive machine, able to gobble up vast amounts of real estate, playing extremely physical football. On occasion, Pitt’s production in scoring points falls short, which could be a conundrum against a fine defense like South Florida. Pittsburgh can control the line of scrimmage in this contest with its sturdy front seven, but has to be careful of the deep ball against the Bulls. Pittsburgh is 2-7 ATS against teams with .600 record or better.

This is just the seventh meeting between these two schools and the home team is 2-4 SU and ATS. Pitt will look to establish the run and are 6-2 ATS before a bye. South Florida’s Top 10 ranking was ruined by Pittsburgh last season 26-21 and they will seek revenge.

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 8.5

Penn State (-4.5, 47.5) at Michigan 3:30E ABC/ESPN

The Nittany Lions (6-1, 3-4 ATS) will attempt to stay in the Big Ten hunt when they visit Ann Arbor. Penn State quarterback Daryll Clark has rebounded nicely from his career-worst game against Iowa in Penn State’s lone defeat with a trio of fine performances. “Daryll’s just a great leader. He doesn’t let things like that bother him,” wide receiver Brett Brackett said. It will be the defense that will have to play at their best to slow down Michigan attack. The Wolverines multiple offense has moved the ball on everyone and this will be the most lethal attack Penn State have seen to date. Penn State is 0-6 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 14 points or more over the last three seasons.

Michigan (5-2, 4-2 ATS) should have a great deal of confidence playing in the Big House with 5-0 and 3-1 ATS record. The Wolverines freshman quarterbacks have been much more poised at home. Ball security will be imperative against an opportunistic opponent like Penn State, meaning no forced throws. Coach Rich Rodriguez would prefer to depend on his offensive line and let RB Brandon Minor pound away, since they are averaging 5.4 yards per carry. The Wolverines defense has been spotty all season (7th in Big Ten), showing moments of greatness and futility within the same quarter. Michigan is 11-6 ATS as single digit Big Tem home underdog.

The team with the funny helmets has dominated this series, winning nine in a row before falling 46-17 last year at State College. The Wolverines are 7-3 ATS in those 10 meetings and has knocked them off five times when Penn State was in the Top 25.

3DW Line – Penn State by 4

Oklahoma (-8, 55.5) at Kansas 3:30E ABC/GP

The seventh game of the Kansas schedule will provide an indication of which way the season might go for the Jayhawks. Kansas (5-1, 2-3 ATS) has been involved in a few shootouts this campaign and have been bailed out most of the time by senior quarterback Todd Reesing. The defense has been especially vulnerable to the pass (95th), surrendering over 245 yards per game and plagued by poor tackling all season. With QB Sam Bradford out and the Sooners having punishing running game, the Mangino’s can’t expect Reesing to save them against Oklahoma’s seventh rated defense. Kansas is 7-12 ATS a Big 12 home underdog since 2000.

These are riveting times in Norman, with Oklahoma at 3-3 and looking at a second non-BCS bowl bid in eight years. Oklahoma pass receivers are not helping whoever is throwing the ball for the Sooners (2-3-1 ATS), with too many dropped balls occurring. The offensive line needs to play with more grit inside the opponents’ 20-yard line and start moving more bodies that lead to touchdowns. Reesing in a handful, thus continual pressure up front is a necessity. The Sooners are 12-1 and 8-5 ATS after Red River Rivalry.

Last year’s game produced 75 points and but this contest doesn’t figure to approach that number. Kansas is 8-15 ATS as home dog the last nine years; however watch the line since they are 5-0 ATS when receiving eight or loss points with revenge. Coach Mangino was on the Bob Stoops staff prior to taking Kansas job. Oklahoma is 9-3 ATS following a straight up loss in the regular season.

3DW Line – Oklahoma by 4.5

Tennessee (+13, 43) at Alabama 3:30E CBS

Tennessee may only be 3-3 SU and ATS; nevertheless signs of improvement are everywhere. In the Volunteers three losses, they have a turnover margin of -4, showing they could have closed the gap in those games which were lost by a total of 18 points. The 45-19 spanking of Georgia was huge confidence booster, outgaining the Bulldogs 472-243, with Jonathan Crompton looking like presentable BCS signal caller. Coach Lane Kiffin’s father Monte, has worked with a defense that has faced numerous injuries, yet led by All-American safety Eric Berry, the Vols have conceded just 220 yards against offenses averaging 374 yards per game. Tennessee is 23-8 ATS in road games in weeks five through nine the last 16 years.

Nick Saban has won more than 69 percent of the game he has coached at the collegiate level and these days that number just continues to rise. Saban isn’t much interested in being pals with the alumni, his message is let him win football games and everyone “should” be happy. Saban has a wrecking crew on defense, in the Top 10 of every important category. They vitiate opponents and are not only fast, the front seven has larger bodies more associated with the fellas that play on Sunday. The Crimson Tide (7-0, 5-2 ATS) is rolling with 12-4 ATS record after two or more consecutive SU victories.

The SEC is loaded with quirky rivalries and this is one of them. Dating back to 1992, the visitor is 15-2 ATS. Alabama has covered three in a row and last year was the first time in five seasons the favorite won and covered.

3DW Line – Alabama by 13

Iowa (+1.5, 42) at Michigan State 7:00E BTN

Iowa kept their unbeaten season intact at Wisconsin and with 7-0 start for the first time since 1985 and the Hawkeyes will play a second consecutive road game, this time in East Lansing. The Iowa (4-2 ATS) offense still sputters, as QB Ricky Stanzi makes enough foolish plays to keep the opposition in games and the offensive line been unsettled with injuries, causing consistency problems. After a fast start, the defense had shown cracks and survived lately on making big plays. The Hawkeyes defense has to rise to occasion and they are 18-6 ATS in road games when they allow 300 to 350 total yards.

After a lumbering 1-3 season start, Michigan State (4-3, 3-3 ATS) could really get themselves back into Big Ten title contention with triumph over Iowa. The Spartans have stabilized defensively in winning their last three Big Ten battles, getting a better pass rush and finding the right combination the secondary after early season shuffling. On offense, the always burly Michigan State offensive line has been moving people off the line of scrimmage and whatever healthy running back has run the ball effectively. Both quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol have run the offense capably for Sparty to average 29.3 points per game. The Spartans are 13-5 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival.

The home team has won nine straight (6-3 ATS), but for the most part these teams have been evenly matched, as the last six meetings have seen the line be seven points or less. This is why the underdog is 15-4 against the number.

3DW Line – Iowa by 1.5

TCU (-2.5, 52) at BYU 7:30E Versus

If you think you have seen this act before, well you have as TCU, BYU and Utah are all in contention for another Mountain West title. The first major matchup takes place in Provo. BYU (6-1, 3-4 ATS) has handled last four opponents with relative ease since Florida State mishap, which is all the more painful with how the Seminoles have played since. The Cougars running game has hit another gear the last month averaging over 200 yards per game. They will be confronted by angry Horned Frogs who hold opposing teams under 82 yards per contest on the ground. QB Max Hall is the catalyst to exceptional passing that totals 9.6 yards per pass attempt. BYU doesn’t allow backers to feel real comfortable with 1-9 ATS mark after playing a MWC contest over the last two years.

Visiting TCU doesn’t change much under coach Gary Patterson. They have a terrific front four that rushes the passer with abandon; linebackers that stuff the run (8th nationally) and most years an above average secondary. On offense, roughly 60 percent or more plays involve the run and the passing game features either short out-routes and taking deep shots. The Horned Frogs stuffed Colorado State last week 44-6 and are 7-0 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game.

TCU spoiled BYU’s perfect season a year ago 32-7 at home, holding the Cougars to season-low 297 yards. BYU will look to return the favor on their gridiron and is 12-5 ATS before a bye week. Revenge aside, the visiting team is 5-2 ATS in this encounter.

3DW Line – BYU by 1

Texas (-13, 49.5) at Missouri 8:00E ABC/GP

After deposing of Oklahoma 16-13, the Texas Longhorns (6-0, 1-4-1 ATS) are uncanny 12-0 SU in next game and have covered the spread in nine of last 10. This is the first of two prickly road games for Texas, moving on to Oklahoma State next. Coach Mack Brown is still seeking receiver to compliment wide receiver Jordan Shipley. The running game hasn’t been all that productive against better competition (107.6 YPG). Because of injuries, inexperience and ineffectiveness of the offensive line, Colt McCoy has been forced to run similar to last season. The Horns defense has shut the door to prevent opponents from starting fast or locked them down after they owned brief lead. They rank 5th in the country in total defense and have forced 19 turnovers this season.

Sporting a 0-2 record in the Big 12, Missouri coach Gary Pinkel is being scrutinized in the blogging community for not changing his run offense, which is 10th in the Big 12. “We want to run the football better,” Pinkel said. “But we’re not going to change how we run the ball.” Most complaints have been about the lack of quick hitting plays and miniscule 3.8 yards per carry. The defense will have to rise to the challenge again and try and corral a quality colt in Mr. McCoy. Missouri (4-2, 3-3 ATS) is just 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58 percent or better.

Since 1916, Missouri is 1-14 vs. Texas with 5-6 ATS mark. The Longhorns are 11-3-1 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up wins, but 6-18 ATS on the road after five or more consecutive victories.

3DW Line – Texas by 10.5

Oregon State (+20.5, 52) at USC 8:00E ABC/GP

As if USC needs any more incentive after Notre Dame 34-27 triumph, in comes Oregon State, who hung the only “L” on the Trojans last season. Last year’s 27-21 loss as 25-point favorites was the lone blemish on USC card and they can’t afford another if they want to keep Pac-10 and national championship hopes alive. Pete Carroll’s offensive is beginning to churn, with Matt Barkley more comfortable, which has opened up the playbook and made the offense something other than vanilla. Defensively, USC (5-1, 2-4 ATS) is choking opposing team’s offenses, yielding just six touchdowns this season. With safety Taylor Mays preventing anything deep and a sack-happy front four, the Men of Troy are a load. USC is 54-13 ATS when they outgain their opponents by two or more yards play.

Oregon State is 4-2 (2-3 ATS) and knows what kind of situation they are heading into. The Beavers are off a bye week and have been busy. Coach Mike Riley after losing home games to Cincinnati and Arizona tried to change his club’s focus. Riley explained, “…if you can live in the moment and get ready for one game at a time,” much can be accomplished. After defeating Arizona State and Stanford, Oregon State has been tweaking the offense and refining things they do well. James Rodgers leads the Pac-10 in all-purpose yards and OSU coaches have to feed him the ball to give offense a chance. The Beavers are 11-3 ATS off a Pac-10 win.

Oregon State is 3-31 SU in last four decades vs USC, but has two upsets in last three years. The favorite is 3-6 ATS since 1999.

3DW Line – USC by 12.5

Rutgers makes quick trip to banks of the Hudson River

Expect a packed house this Friday as Rutgers makes the 95-mile journey to West Point to take on the Army. This is the Scarlet Knights second straight Friday night contest and they trail in the all-time series 18-17. This is a dangerous contest for Rutgers, off a 24-17 loss to Pittsburgh as six-point underdogs and before trip to Connecticut.

If Rutgers takes Army (3-5, 2-6 ATS) too lightly, the defense could be on the field all night. The Black Knights of the Hudson run the option 53 times a game for 4.2 yards per carry. Teams lacking discipline to play assignment football and if they tackle poorly, will be on the field for a long time. Though Army possesses the ball for over 33 minutes a game, they lack big play explosion, which is why they average 17.9 points per game. Army is just 1-10 ATS against the Big East.

Rutgers (4-2, 1-5 ATS) has placed the offense in the hands of freshman quarterback Tom Savage. He was a top recruit with a big time arm. When given time, he’s been able to showcase his talent and presumably will against Army, who lacks the players to build consistent pass rush like Pitt did a week ago. Coach Greg Schiano is not completely comfortable in turning the entire offense over to Savage and would prefer to run the ball. Rutgers has been outright dominant in this series, winning last four by 30 points per contest and is on 6-0 ATS run.

Army has already matched their win total of three from last season under new coach Rich Ellerson and envisions five W’s as real possibility. DiamondSportsbook.com has the Black Knights as 10.5-point underdogs with a total of 38.5 points. Being a home dog hasn’t been much help for Army, sporting a 13-28-1 ATS record.

This will be just the second road game for Rutgers and they have covered five in a row. They are 19-7 UNDER in non-conference games, while Army is 11-3 UNDER after one or more losses against the spread over the last three seasons.

Army’s best hope is Rutgers is thinking ahead to Connecticut next. That is not a given with Rutgers 15-8 ATS as double digit favorites. ESPN2 has the coverage at 8 Eastern.

Thursday Action and 28-1 CFB System

Picked up two more winners yesterday and kept our lead at the Free Sports Monitor in MLB with Phillies pick. In search of another Top Trend winner on the ice, that is 88.8 percent. Free play is up early, however it won’t be mine. Found one of the best money line plays in college football this season as Best System, which is 28-1 and affordable. Good Luck

NEW Feature: Take our Poll at the bottom of the page.

What I saw last night – A mentally unprepared Tulsa team was easily 10 points better than UTEP, however they played hard from the start of the third quarter until they built 24-13 and decided they was good enough and got beat deservedly by opponent who wanted it more. Thankfully I passed on the game.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line like Arkansas, off a road loss against a conference rival against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite. This money line system is 28-1, 96.6 percent since 2005.

Free Hockey Trend-2) The Columbus Blue Jackets are 4-32 in road games after a road game where both teams score three or more goals, losing by 1.7 goals per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) I have a play for sale on tonight’s ACC contest, thus no freebie from me, however the LCC is backing the Yankees with 80 percent of bettors on that side.

Guaranteed College Football Winner!

The Platinum Sheet has a capper at 24-9-1 ATS in college football Best Bets. (Not me)

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Going Green has payoff with right methods

In these times of trying to be environmentally friendly, it is good for the earth to do so. The three R’s are at the centerpiece of this movement, recycle, reuse and reduce. Buying in larger quantities helps reduce the amounts of garbage is placed in landfills. Other tips include product lifecycle, sustainability and value. In the spirit of looking to do what’s right for the earth, adding Green to one’s wagering account also is beneficial since the more greenbacks a person has; it makes it easier to buy in bulk.

Let’s be clear, Al Gore might not wholly endorse this idea, but winning college football wagers surely creates a friendly environment, especially in these economic times.

As mentioned, the first aspect to consider is lifecycle. While there is no way to know exactly what the future holds, a true Green investor likes to have a good start to the future based on prior results. Take these college football teams for example.

ATS Records
Idaho 7-0
Connecticut 6-0
Central Michigan 6-1
Nebraska 5-1
UL-Monroe 5-1
Wyoming 5-1
Alabama 5-2
Ohio State 5-2

As these college football teams approach or are at the midpoint of their respective schedules, they have shown to be worthy of furthering the cause of Going Green by generating a vast amount of cash. What these teams have proven is they can look the wisest of oddsmakers and prove to the world they are more wrong than your local weatherman.

In most cases, the sportsbooks don’t take too heavy a beating since many teams on this list are below or off many sports bettors radar. That’s just fine since the majority of us are more concerned about doing what is right within our means and would prefer the public stayed away from our opportunity to Green-up our world.

Idaho a wonderful example of exercising one’s right of Going Green. The Vandals have been like Robin Hood, taking from the rich and giving to the poor with six covers of the spread as underdogs, which has included five OUTRIGHT upsets. Idaho is bowl eligible for the first time since 1999, having last played a in bowl game the previous year in Boise, ID at the Humanitarian Bowl against Southern Mississippi. The Vandals were favorites last week against Hawaii, which was the second time this has happened in 37 games. Trips to Nevada and Boise State will be challenging, however this just might be year to back Idaho and stay in the green.

Another consideration is sustainability for Going Green. It won’t happen every year, but tried and true college football programs are like blue chip stocks, they may not pay out huge dividends every year, but over time your money will grow. This season such marquee names include Nebraska, Alabama and Ohio State.

The Cornhuskers haven’t been in the public eye a great deal since winning the national championship in 1997. Frank Solich was a good coach, but wasn’t a great recruiter and Bill Callahan would be wise to stay two states away from Nebraska. Bo Pelini has brought back the Husker mentality of playing hard-nosed defense and placed the offense in the hands of able assistant coaches. With a Top 12 defense and quality offense, the covers should keep coming in Husker Nation.

When Nick Saban was hired, everyone figured it was just a matter of time before Alabama was a national power again and were they ever right. Alabama is a physically dominant team on both sides of the ball and since Saban has been able to bring in these type of players, the Crimson Tide are rolling with 14-6 ATS record in the regular season the last two years.

It’s hard to imagine a name like Ohio State not being given their due, but the Buckeyes just go about their business and keeping winning games. This is far from one of coach Jim Tressel’s best squads in Columbus and sports bettors have been able to take advantage of the situation with oddsmakers dissing them to a certain extent. A couple points to remember about Tressel teams that have Buckeye leaves on helmets. Ohio State won’t cover all the time, but they seldom lose when they are not supposed. In 45 regular games the Buckeyes have been favored by 10 or more points since 2001, they’ve lost only three times, including at Purdue last Saturday. Since “The Vest” was in his second year, Ohio State has never had a losing ATS record on the season (52-38 ATS).

The final part of going Green is value. The whole aspect of doing what is right for the world doesn’t come easy; you have to work for it. A lot of time it costs money and energy spent in terms of consumable workload. The beauty of the putting in the time is there can be a payoff in the end.

Searching thru figures to find teams that have a stellar defense like Connecticut is invaluable to Going Green. Coach Randy Edsall had built a program on defense and though the Huskies offense can make an adult more squeamish than a Six Flags rollercoaster ride, few people constantly monitor every penny they make or lose. The Huskies bring home the money.

The MAC conference generally draws about as much attention as a Carly Simon comeback (google to see how many CD’s she sold with last project). This makes a team like Central Michigan a valuable commodity. The Chippewas have been putting up outstanding offensive numbers since Dan LeFevour arrived at Mt. Pleasant what seems like eight years ago. LeFevour’s first two years C. Mich was 18-7-1 ATS, however last year without much of a defense, they sank to 5-7 against the spread. With 10 starters back on the defensive side, covering spreads is back to normal for Central Michigan.

Wyoming has scored 10 points or less three different times including being shut out twice, however that hasn’t stopped them from posting 4-3 SU record and sparkling spread mark. The Cowboys have relished the role of underdog and are 4-1 against the spread in that situation. With the offense lagging, Wyoming’s defense has raised the level of their play in 2009 with its eight returning starters. Take away the 41 points they allowed to No. 3 Texas and these Cowboys have permitted just 17.7 points per game.

Our hope this has been a valuable lesson in understanding some of the elements of what it takes and what it means to Go Green. Now is the time to get it right since Dec. 5 is the last day to have everything in order before a different type of opportunity presents itself for going even further Green, with the bowl season.

Bettors might TiVo this ACC contest

The two biggest disappoints in the ACC this season have been Florida State (2-4, 1-5 ATS) and North Carolina (4-2, 2-3 ATS). Both team were improved last season with many positive signs and were expected to compete for the right to play in ACC championship game in 2009. Instead, ESPN has one of its worst dud games on a Thursday night it has had in years. Each of the Atlantic Coast Conference teams currently resides in the basement of their respective teams, talk about a need for flex scheduling!

Florida State’s bizarre season continues to become stranger as it goes along. The season started with the cloud over coach Bobby Bowden, being stripped of wins in his pursuit of Joe Paterno as the winningest coach in D-1 or FBS history. The exciting 38-34 loss to Miami in the opener was harbinger of defensive issues not wholly recognizable at the time.

A fourth quarter come from behind 19-9 win against FCS Jacksonville State was masked with impressive 54-28 win over then previously unbeaten BYU. That is where the rubber met the road. The Seminoles have not won since, losing three times and the defense has been scorched for 30.5 points per game in their four trips to the gridiron.

Several people are calling for Bobby Bowden to step down while others are saying leave him alone and let him decide when the time is right. What is another peculiar aspect in Florida State’s season are Bowden’s comments leading up this contest.

“I’m disappointed with the losses and yet we’ve done some good things. We’ve done something this year that we haven’t done before,” Bowden said. “Our offense against BYU took the ball and scored the first seven times they got the ball. Then against Georgia Tech, we took the ball and scored the first five times we got the ball.

“But defensively, we’ve had a hard time stopping the big play. We’ll go out there and stop a team, and stop a team, and stop a team and then whoop. So if they ever get that squared away we’ll be a pretty good ballclub.

“Another thing is, nobody’s crushed us. We haven’t been blown out. We’ve been right down to the wire with everybody, which maybe with one play less for them or one play more for us, we could be up at the top.”

Coach Bowden putting positive spin on losing season, what is next Glenn Beck and Keith Olberman become dining partners? At least the Noles are 27-11 ATS after two or more consecutive losses against the spread.

North Carolina has been done in by anemic offense. The Tar Heels rank No. 101 in rushing, No. 103 in passing, which ends up totaling 282.2 yards per game, 117th in total offense. Take away the wins against FCS Georgia Southern and The Citadel and North Carolina is the worst offensive team in the country. Subtract those two games and the Tar Heels are averaging 59.7 yards per game on the ground.

With no running game and QB T.J. Yates being rushed continually when dropping back to pass, and never in sync with receivers, the offense has scored 12 or fewer points three times on the year. UNC also averages almost three turnovers a game and is 12-26 ATS at home after playing a non-conference tilt.

Despite no offensive support, the Tar Heels stop troops rank third in the country in total defense at 237.7 yards per game. The numbers are somewhat misleading based on competition; however they would still be in the Top 20 defensively if just the four FBS teams were counted.

Bookmaker.com has North Carolina as 2.5-point favorites with total of 48 in the first ever Thursday-night televised home game for the Tar Heels in school history. The Heels are 6-2 with 3-5 ATS in last eight weekday games. They are 1-14-1 against Florida State, with 8-8 ATS mark and 7-0 ATS after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half.

If the Seminoles defense can’t get healthy against this offense, there is no hope for the season. Florida State is 9-4 ATS as an underdog since 2005 (includes bowls), yet 4-13 ATS in road games against teams who commit 2.5 or more turnovers a game.

The Worldwide Leader has this ACC clash at 7:45 Eastern and will undoubtedly make reference to Florida State having never lost four in a row with Bobby Bowden patrolling the sidelines. Including Labor Day loss, the Noles are 0-5 ATS on weekdays.

Wednesday Update with New Feature

Pleased to announce 2-1 day, especially with two NHL Winners. We have an another NHL play, this time a Prefect Trend. The Best System is for the NFL this Sunday involving totals at 83.9 percent. Good Luck

NEW Feature: Take our Poll at the bottom of the page.

What I learned today- Alex Rodriguez had three hits, a home run, two RBIs, three runs scored, a stolen base and a walk in the Yankees victory over the Angels on Tuesday night. Since 1920, the first year that RBIs were officially recorded in the major leagues, only one other player reached all six of those statistical levels in one postseason game: the Phillies' Lenny Dykstra in Game Four of the 1993 World Series vs. Toronto. Rodriguez has five home runs and 11 RBIs in the 2009 postseason. The only other player to hit at least five home runs and drive in 10-or-more runs in his first seven games of one postseason was Carlos Beltran (six HR and 12 RBIs) for Houston in 2004. (Thanks Elias)

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Free Football System-1) PLAY OVER on home teams like the Bengals when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points, being an average offensive team (295 to 335 YPG), against a team with an average defense (295 to 335 YPG), after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game. Mark this totals system down as 26-5, 83.9 percent since 1983. (Thanks StatFox)

Free Hockey Trend-2) The Boston Bruins are 12-0 when playing against a bad team (win percentage 25 to 40 percent) in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Take the Phillies to wrap up series with the Dodgers. Though Padilla deserves a lot of credit, check the facts. In last eight starts, he's faced five opponents that could not hit (AZ-2, SF-2, Wash.) and caught Colorado the day after clinching pennant in meaningless game on the last day of the season. Padilla pitched well against Cardinals who were in hitting slump and was impressive against Philly in Game 2. Given his usual track record and Phils urgency before home crowd, take the Phillies.

Guaranteed College Football Winner!

The Platinum Sheet has a capper at 24-9-1 ATS in college football Best Bets. (Not me)

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Televised Tilt of C-USA Action

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane gave a very good accounting of themselves but came up short against highly ranked Boise State 28-21as nine-point home underdogs. As opposed to 45-0 Oklahoma destruction, Tulsa coach Todd Graham was pleased with what he saw this time.

“No, our boys battled hard,” Graham said. “This is the highest ranked team we’ve played. They are a great team, and they have one of the best offenses in the nation, they are really explosive. We fought and battled hard.”

Another positive byproduct is the emergence sophomore quarterback G.J. Kinne. As compared to the last several seasons, where 300 or more passing days were the norm, Kinne is an accomplished runner and opposing teams can no longer sit in pass coverage since he will take off and scamper for a first down.

The Golden Hurricane (4-2, 4-1-1 ATS) need to do a much better job in pass protection, surrendering 23 sacks, among the worst in the nation. This is the only road game in four of five contests and Tulsa is 3-9 ATS in road sandwich.

UTEP (2-4 SU&ATS) is seeking to bounce back, upsetting then unbeaten Houston one week and falling at Memphis 35-20 as a single point favorite the next. With half the season to go, it’s all about consistency for the Miners. UTEP has conceded 34.8 points per game, having faced Kansas, Texas and Houston’s high-powered offenses. The players refuse to blame the tough competition for lack of containment.

“That’s an excuse,” said linebacker Jeremy Springer. “To be a great defense, you have to play great against great teams. I think we’re better (than last year), but we’ve had a lot of little mistakes.” This is the first of two home games for UTEP and the visitor is 12-5 ATS in this series.

For Tulsa, it’s back to C-USA action, trying to win the West Division and they are currently tied with upstart SMU at 2-0. The Golden Hurricane defense deserves props, allowing 18.2 points per game and limiting opposing teams to 3.0 yards per carry. Tulsa is 17-4 ATS when they allow 50 to 100 rushing yards.

UTEP can tie Tulsa in C-USA action with the upset and they are 7.5-point home underdogs at DiamondSportsbook.com. The Golden Hurricane is 3-1 on the road and the Miners are 9-3 ATS vs. teams with winning road record. How UTEP will play has been determined early, as they average 459.5 yards of total offense in their two wins and 268.8 yards of offense in their four defeats. Tulsa is 4-1 ATS off a loss and the favorite has failed to cover the last four times (1-3 SU).
Watch the total carefully, since in the last six meetings these two teams have averaged 82 points per game.

ESPN has this C-USA conflict at 8 Eastern.

Upon further review in the NFL

The New Orleans Saints have cemented who is the best team in the NFC and possibly in the NFL is the middle of October. The Saints look a lot different than when started 5-1 in 2006, coach Sean Payton’s first year. That team was coming off 3-13 season and caught the league by surprise with their new quarterback Drew Brees. The former San Diego signal caller had a HUGE chip his shoulder after being no longer wanted in San Diego.

Payton was like a new teacher out of college, full of ideas and idealism and wanted to let the world know he was an offensive guru. New Orleans went to the NFC championship before losing to Chicago. The following two seasons are what most people would have expected from the Saints at 7-9 and 8-8.

Starting back in August, this New Orleans team had a different look. They destroyed teams in the preseason and it continued right in the regular season. After blowing away the Giants 49-27, this club has a killer look. Yes, the Giants were playing subs in the secondary, but they turned off New York’s pass rush and went after their greatest weakness.

The Saints are 5-0 SU and ATS not just because of Brees, but because they have the No.9 defense and are fourth in rushing yardage. Brees and Payton have both grown up and so has New Orleans.

Baltimore made a spectacular comeback against Minnesota and should have won the game, but at least they covered the three for those on that side. While that was great news for Baltimore backers, a number of disturbing elements came out of that contest for the Ravens. After losing two consecutive games, Baltimore was flatter than a smashed crab cake and Minnesota jumped all over them 14-0. The Ravens secondary is well below average even with Ed Reed. While a NFL kicker should be expected to make a 44-yard field goal, once again, another team decides to go into a shell once there in range, instead of trying to get closer for an even shorter field goal attempt.

Could Philadelphia have looked any worse in losing to Oakland? For all the supposed genius of Andy Reid, how do you run 14 times against a Raiders defense that had allowed 182 yards rushing per game in previous four contests, especially in a close contest? DT Richard Seymour absolutely destroyed the Eagles offensive line by himself.

Remember all those big smiles and grins coach Rex Ryan had after 3-0 start. Those have been replaced by frowns with the Jets 3-3. His rookie Mark Sanchez took a step backwards in overtime loss to Buffalo, throwing five picks. Ryan’s mistake was placing too much faith in Sanchez. Every young quarterback is going to have ups and downs, which is why Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan were successful as first year quarterbacks; they were kept on short leach.

Green Bay won 26-0 over Detroit and made a few defensive adjustments like having Aaron Kampman rush the passer more and blitzing LB Clay Mathews, as both have a knack for creating pressure. What is still disturbing is Rodgers being sacked four times.

There is no other way to describe it, Tennessee quit on coach Jeff Fisher in 59-0 shellacking in snow-laden New England. Though Fisher prior to this season has gotten more out of available talent than any NFL coach, it seems his message after 14 years is ringing hallow. This might be a great opportunity for him to step away, do some broadcasting work and get batteries recharged for another opportunity.

Heard on the radio something that made sense about Josh McDaniels unlikely 6-0 SU and ATS start in Denver. He was quoted as saying what he learned most under Bill Belichick was there was a way to beat every single team. It was the head coach’s responsibility to figure it out, sell it to the assistant coaches and in turn have them put it together for the players in understandable manner. If you believe what McDaniels says, Denver took away Dallas running game, exploited New England secondary and found special teams’ weaknesses in San Diego, which all led to victories.

Study the numbers

The NFL that everyone loves returned this week, with decided underdogs Buffalo and Oakland winning outright, with favorites a mere 5-9 ATS. This change has helped the sportsbooks who have been being beaten on parlays and teasers with so many big favorites winning. Talked to a sportsbook manager on the Vegas Strip who conveyed they took a lot of action on Steelers-Packers parlay and came away a good-sized winner on that product. Underdogs are 17-11 the last two weeks, after sporting 9-21 ATS record the two weeks prior. NFL time travelers are still having issues, with Philadelphia the latest three time zone team to fall, making them 2-8 ATS this season.

NFL teams that have a turnover margin of three or more are 4-8 against the spread if they play the following week. Professional football squads that played after winning outright as a road underdog are 9-4 ATS. Teams that have scored or allowed 40 or more points are a combined 7-1 ATS if they play the next week.

Totals players who march like lemmings when bad weather is reported, received a severe shock on Tennessee and New England outcome, which was over before halftime for Under bettors.

Tuesday Tussles

Officially 2-0 Monday and picked up another winner from earlier post last week on the Over on Denver. Have a terrific hockey system that is 86 percent going tonight. The Top Trend is in Game 4 of the ALCS and interesting news concerning Free Play. Good Luck

What you I thought yesterday- I thought it was real interesting what I heard about Josh McDaniels, the Denver coach on the radio. Look for that to be part of article later tonight.

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Free Hockey System-1) PLAY ON home teams like Calgary off a win by two goals or more over a division rival, a good team (60 to 70 percent) playing a team with a winning record. This NHL system is 37-6, 86 percent.

Free Baseball Trend-2) With the Yankees a decided favorite, the Los Angeles Angels are 14-1 after a game where they had six or more extra base hits this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) I’m told our NHL guy has a big play and I’m efforting to get it from him (@ 3:30 PST it's Montreal). In the mean time eight members of the LCC are riding the Yankees and they must be right since Brandon Lange is picking the Angels.

The Platinum Sheet has a capper at 24-9-1 ATS in college football Best Bets. (Not me)

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Looking ahead in Rearview Mirror in College Football

Ohio State detractors and Big Ten bashers won’t have to worry about Ohio State screwing up BCS championship game plans. The Buckeyes were whipped on all fronts at Purdue. Helmets smattered with buckeyes might intimidate some teams but the talent at Ohio State is not substantially better when it chooses not to play. Purdue ravaged Ohio State on both sides of the ball. The Boilermakers forced five turnovers and sacked Terrelle Pryor five times. They had 24 first downs to Ohio State’s 12. In other words, after five consecutive losses, Purdue wanted it more than the Buckeyes and took it.

Three observations, first coach Jim Tressel needs to hire a coach that can make Pryor a better quarterback. All the talent in the world is useless without practical application. Second, Pryor needs to grow-up, the gliding into the end zone for two-point conversion and the behind the back basketball-style flip to bring Ohio State WITHIN eight points is better served with a lead, not when trailing. Lastly, don’t expect the Buckeyes to be overrated the rest of the year by oddsmakers, this team simply isn’t that good and finishes at Penn State, Iowa and at Michigan.

USC proved they deserve to be in national championship discussion and if they play like they did for three quarters at South Bend, Texas better start beating Big 12 teams with abandon. Though Notre Dame has closed the talent gap with the Trojans, wasn’t the feeling USC had 15 players that looked like they could play in the NFL, while the Irish had around six. Matt Barkley looks fantastic and being able to throw to TE Anthony Mc Coy and WR Damian Williams is a real privilege, especially against a Notre Dame secondary that couldn’t cover a piece of toast if they had a stick of butter.

Not sure if the Notre Dame offensive linemen stopped to shake hands with USC defensive end Everson Griffen, but if they did it was the only time they slowed him down all day. Safety Taylor Mays was exceptional and took away Irish tight end Kyle Rudolph (3 catches, nine yards). The last remaining challenge for the Trojans is at Oregon and that should determine Pac-10 title. If Pete Carroll’s crew plays the same or improves, the Ducks are in trouble.

Notre Dame can say what they want about closing the talent gap and all that nonsense. The Irish showed plenty of fight, but this was their opportunity and they came up short. What really matters looking ahead does this team have the character to close 10-2 or do they do what many expect and find a way to finish 8-4?

Really felt bad for Sam Bradford in the Red River Rivalry contest and if I’m an NFL scout, my urgency meter is really up on him. Twice he’s proven the lack of escape-ability from the shotgun. The same again was proven about Tim Tebow vs Arkansas. These quarterback’s are so comfortable receiving snap, feeling little pressure and just making one read and rip. When pressured, they lack the survival instinct of stepping up or avoiding the chaos around them and are easy targets for on-rushing linemen.

Coach Bob Stoops was 3-3 in 2005 and his team responded winning four of last five, how will this group perform? Coach Urban Meyer can thank his lucky stars Arkansas could not execute when it counted most, missing touchdown pass and field goal that would have added more pressure on the Gators. The toughest remaining game on the regular season schedule is at South Carolina and Florida will be favored in all other games. If the opponent can play defense, wouldn’t count the Gators as safe bet as Tennessee and Arkansas proved.

Iowa overcame 10-0 deficit at Wisconsin and took over the game with 17-0 second half. What was impressive about the Hawkeyes is they held the Badgers to 87 yards on the ground. This week at Michigan State and later at Ohio State appear to be the stumbling blocks. Grit and determination are what this Iowa team is about, but that doesn’t mean it holds up every time. Best guess if Iowa and USC win out, the Trojans would be 17 or more point favorites in the Rose Bowl.

Texas Tech didn’t overwhelm Nebraska statistically (259 yards to Huskers 285), but buried them on the scoreboard 31-10. This Big 12 matchup had two elements almost no one saw coming. Nebraska opened as 5.5-point favorites and were bet heavily to 11-point choice, before the market adjusted them to 10.5. Evidently the Cornhuskers are a good matchup for the Red Raiders, who have won four straight. The total of 58.5 was never in question. Coach Mike Leach will have to make coaching decision as backup QB Steven Sheffield throws a nice ball and is elusive an a runner. Taylor Potts is about ready to comeback from concussion.

It was just last week Virginia Tech was the class of the ACC, blah, blah, blah. As was noted, this isn’t typical Hokies defense and Georgia Tech proved just it, bruising and deceiving Virginia Tech for 309 yards on the ground in 28-23 upset as 3.5-point underdogs. The Yellow Jackets option is on fire and here is the reason they might go 11-1 and be a solid bet. In their last two losses, Miami had 10 days to prepare for the option and LSU had basically a month in Chick-fil-A Bowl. All five remaining opponents have conventional one week.

Goal Line Observations – Central Michigan is the best team in the MAC and should continue to stay a good bet thanks to improved defense in 2009….Idaho is not a fluke, too bad they have to play at Boise State….Pop Illinois out of the microwave, they are done. At 1-5 and 0-6 ATS, they are headed nowhere with that defense….This was presumed to be a down year for the Pac-10 with a dearth of quarterbacks. Yet out of nowhere youngsters are emerging. Matt Barkley is headed for stardom and Stanford’s Andrew Luck and Arizona’s Nick Folk combined for 838 yards in Wildcats come from behind 43-38 victory.

A Monday of Great Viewing

Ended up with sharp 3-1 record overall in the NFL and still have a Over play on tonight’s Monday Night encounter still hanging out there from Thursday. Have a really interesting system for tonight in the NFL at 83.3 percent. How do the Angels do after blowing a save, read on. Good Luck

What you I thought yesterday- Isn’t it ridiculous how those players looked wearing earflaps during the baseball games over the weekend? Players wearing essentially ski masks with area cut out so they could see. Obviously the cold weather really came early to the East but the later baseball goes, you have to figure the worse the weather. Baseball lucked out to have these four teamsw still playing and the baseball ratings are very good, but that won’t happen every year. My suggestion would be to schedule seven day/night doubleheaders, similar to the old days. That way teams can still have all the revenue of separate games and the season can be shorten one week. I understand all the ramifications, but playing baseball in November is asinine.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) From the article written below: Play Against any MNF home team off a bye hosting a division rival. (10-2 ATS, 83.3 percent)

Free Baseball Trend-2) The Los Angeles Angels are are 14-2 after a game where their bullpen blew a save this season.

Free Football Pick -3) From the LCC members, San Diego is running as two-to-one choice and Under is over 75 percent.

The Platinum Sheet is a terrific resource for the sports bettor.

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L.A. teams in strife on Monday

While the state of California battles with budget cuts and other issues mostly due to the recession, both Los Angeles baseball squads have built a deficit and have to win today or the field for the World Series is virtually set. The Angels will go first, playing at home and they can look at five errors and lack of clutch hitting as the culprit for their 0-2 predicament. The Dodgers should be down 3-0 except for a Phillies bullpen failure and Chase Utley being wilder to first base on double play turn than Ricky Vaughn before glasses.

The Angels are batting .154 as a team and were 3 for 15 with runners in scoring position in Game 2. The Halos bullpen failures arose again when supposed closer Brian Fuentes served up a belt high 0-2 pitch that got WAY too much of the plate that Alex Rodriguez drilled to right-center bleachers for tying run in the bottom of the 11th. Maybe it was wearing baseball hats with ear flaps, but a normally sound Angels’ defense was making both mental and physical errors in the field reminiscent of a grade school team, literally costing them at least one game.

Jered Weaver has the assignment of attempting to bring the Angels back in the series. The lanky right-hander is 9-3 with 2.90 ERA at the Big A, for a club that is 21-7 after batting .225 or worse over a five game span. He’ll be up against veteran Andy Pettitte, who was far more effective on the road with 9-4 record and 3.56 ERA. In the last dozen years, the left-hander is 8-9 against the Halos and the Yankees are 50-21 after two or more consecutive wins this season.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Anaheim-based club as -130 money line favorites with total of 8.5. The Halos are 14-2 after a game where their bullpen blew a save this season and 38-18 against lefties. This Los Angeles squad is 11-4 at home versus New York and truly are in must win scenario on FOX at 4:13 Eastern today.

The other Los Angeles team has at least won a game in their league championship series, however has looked anemic. The Dodgers offense has not been especially effective since the middle of August and this problem has manifested itself at the most inopportune time. The Dodgers have scored more than five runs just once in last 13 games (8-6 loss in Game 1) and were completely stifled last night in 11-0 rocking chair win for Philadelphia.

Teams that are victorious in the postseason execute and the Dodgers are 9 for 48 with runners in scoring position six games into the playoffs. The 1927 Yankees might not have done much success with Cliff Lee Sunday night, but that doesn’t explain why they were held scoreless by Pedro Martinez in Game 2. The Dodgers are 3-11 after allowing 10 runs or more and hope starter Randy Wolf can give them an argosy of compelling innings in Game 4. Wolf and the Dodgers are 12-4 against teams with winning records this season and he has 2.90 ERA on the road.

Manager Joe Torre hopes a pressing Matt Kemp (.192 BA and 12 K’s in 26 at bats in the playoffs) will find his batting eye against Joe Blanton. Kemp doesn’t sound particularly encouraged he will turn things around. "I'm not hitting the ball that well," Kemp said. "I'm just going out there playing hard, and when I get hits, I get hits."

The Phillies are now 16-5 in the postseason the last two years and are -120 money line favorites with total Un8.5. Philadelphia is 44-25 when the money line is +125 to -125 this season and Blanton is 15-5 against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two years. (Team's Record)

The Dodgers have to start hitting and hope the Phillies are worn out after yesterday’s offensive display (Phils 12-18 at home after six or more extra base hits). TBS picks up Game 4 at 8:07 Eastern.

The Chargers will look to bolt to lead on Monday Night

The Chargers waited until Week 13 last season to get their act together and snagged the division title on the final Sunday of the season. This year’s push for the AFC West crown needs to begin on Monday night when they host upstart Denver, which comes off its fifth win out of the gate.

San Diego (2-2, 1-3 ATS) hasn’t enjoyed a fast start since 2006 when it won four of its first five and finished 13-3. It lost three of four to start the following season and was 2-3 at this same time a year ago. At .500 and coming off a bye as well as a 38-28 loss in Pittsburgh in Week 4, head coach Norv Turner can’t put his finger on one thing that’s ailing his talented club that is 6-15-3 ATS as home favorite of 3.5 or fewer points.

Fatigue won’t be to blame if San Diego drops this critical Monday night contest against the Broncos. The Chargers will have had 15 days to prepare its No. 26th ranked defense. They have really missed NT Jamal Williams, surrendering 151 yards on the ground (27th). Coach Turner’s team is in must-win mode, and fortunately, has done just that versus Denver of late, going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in last six meetings. They’ve also done well at home under Turner, going 14-6 ATS, including 4-2 ATS vs. divisional foes.

The Broncos are 5-0 SU and ATS after beating New England and head into their bye week next Sunday. Denver had a myriad of defensive issues a year ago, but not anymore. Its resurgence has been led by a unit that was nothing short of a sieve in 2008, yielding 28 points per game, including 90 in two meetings with the Chargers. Through the first five weeks, new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has directed a group that allowed 43 points (1st in the NFL) and no more than 17 in any game. Even against the Patriots and Tom Brady, the Broncos didn’t come apart and pitched a shutout in the second half and are second in total defense.

The Broncos are only 2-7 ATS in their last nine pre-bye week games on the road vs division squads. Denver won its only game vs. an AFC West foe so far, snapping a skid of 3-15 ATS vs. division rivals.

Denver opened as four-point road underdogs and once the public took a closer look, they moved them to three-point dogs. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS versus AFC opponents with rest. DiamondSportsbook.com has the total at 43.5 and Denver is 16-5 OVER in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. San Diego is 10-2 ATS in home games after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous outing and is 20-6 UNDER as a home favorite of three points or less.

Denver covers if they establish the run against San Diego. With no Williams in the middle, Pro Bowl center Casey Wiegmann should get a great push, opening lanes for rookie Knowshon Moreno to earn tough yards inside and burst either way with an opening. The Broncos have started slow each of the last two games, trailing by 10 points early. Though coach Josh McDaniels and his staff have made outstanding adjustments at halftime, with Denver an otherworldly 59-7 in the second half, that might not work as well on the road. A confident team with a quick start could add discomfort to a division club not playing at their level with a first quarter burst. Phillip Rivers is arguably the best deep passer in the NFL, the safeties have to maintain their integrity and limit big gains.

San Diego covers if they play with the needed urgency in a division game with plenty of rest. The Chargers were pancaked at Pittsburgh, before making late rally. Falling behind to Denver plays into their hands as their defense is even tougher with a lead. San Diego has to improve dramatically on first down on offense and defense. They rank 25th is first down efficiency offensively and opponents convert 49 percent of third downs, mostly because of earlier down failures. The Chargers have generated the fewest amount of third and longs in the league. Try and make QB Kyle Orton a difference-maker, not a game manager like he has been for the most part. Take the early lead, play solid run defense and have Orton play from behind for significant periods of time.

Monday Night System – Play Against any MNF home team off a bye hosting a division rival. (10-2 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

A little punch-drunk Sunday

Good Lord did Ohio State suck or what? Five turnovers and five sacks against Purdue who had lost five in a row! Though I personally saw Air Force at -10 first thing Saturday morning, I know it went to-10.5 quickly and to -11 at the close, thus we’ll take a 1-3 week for college football with Stanford loss. Found an NFL system I had never heard of, which is over 94 percent! Have an unbeaten Top Trend and Greg’s play is on the way. Good Luck

What you I thought this morning- I had Washington +6.5 last night and Arizona State threw a 50+ yard touchdown pass with: 05 left to win 24-17. I had Stanford +4 and they were outscored 14-0 in the fourth quarter to lose by five. I was rooting for both Notre Dame and the L.A. Angels yesterday and you know how that turned out. I’m surprised my house wasn’t robbed and the car wasn’t stolen. Whoops, better go check the garage.

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Free Football System-1) From the article below: PLAY ON unbeaten favorites of three or more points like New Orleans off a bye. They are astonishing 16-1 ATS, 94.1 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) Kansas City is 8-0 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Greg has Philadephia winning 31-10 over Oakland as his Best Bet.

Exceptional Guaranteed NFL Plays today.

Week 6 of the NFL

This week of the National Football League season brings the top game of the season to date, with two unbeaten teams colliding in Norleans. The top inter-conference match has undefeated Minnesota facing a scuffling Baltimore bunch. Among the better division conflicts is Arizona at Seattle in the NFC West. Cincinnati id favored by more than field goal, which means a touchdown in the last 20 seconds to win and cover again for the Bengals. The rest of schedule is why the bye week doesn’t always work well and Tennessee and New England lost the coin flip.

N.Y. Giants at New Orleans 1:00E FOX

Three NFC teams have set themselves apart in the first five weeks, and two of them match up on Sunday in New Orleans when the Saints (4-0 SU&ATS) host the Giants (5-0 SU&ATS) in a battle of unbeaten teams. It will be a battle of wills, as New York has been the best road team in the league under Tom Coughlin, going 31-13 ATS, including 19-10 ATS as an underdog. New Orleans has developed a strong home field advantage of late though; winning five of its last six contests both SU & ATS, outscoring opponents by 14.5 points per game. The Saints have also scored 23 points or more in every home game since Oct. 21 2007, a span of 14 games. They are looking to break a 0-3 SU & ATS record in post-bye week games under Sean Payton however. In this head-to-head series, home team own a 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS edge in the nine meetings.

Keys to the Game-

Right now there is only one way to beat New Orleans, attack Drew Brees. New York has the front four wholly capable of going so and their secondary has quietly moved up the ladder to a top notch outfit. Brees is playing the best football of his career, but no quarterback will be successful without time. Defense end Osi Umenyiora will be facing backup left tackle, with Jammal Brown out, he must dominate. Look for Giants’ defenders to have loose lips to frustrate former teammate Jeremy Shockey with a steady stream of billingsgate and have him cause discord. The G-Men are 14-4 ATS playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.

In case one hasn’t noticed, all the ESPN highlights about the Saints have been mostly Drew Brees passes. New Orleans is second in the league in rushing at 166.2 yards per game and coach Payton has shown remarkable patience is staying with the run, especially the last two games. If Pierre Thomas and others can keep their team in reasonable down and distance situations, Payton’s play sheet is more versatile. Don’t expect Brees to see what the Giants allow, instead the game plan will be to attack New York’s weaknesses, based on game film study. Defensive ends Will Smith and Charles Grant have to bring the pressure on Eli Manning and interior of the defense has to be stout against Giants running game. Try this, unbeaten favorites of three or more off a bye are astonishing 16-1 ATS.

3DW Line – New Orleans by 2.5

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New Orleans -3, 47

Baltimore at Minnesota 1:00E CBS

One of the most intriguing contests on the Week 6 slate is an inter-conference battle with Minnesota hosting Baltimore. The Vikings (5-0, 4-1 ATS) are unbeaten but begin a tough stretch of three games before their bye week. Under coach Brad Childress, they are just 11-16 ATS as hosts, including 3-3 SU & ATS vs. AFC foes. Another negative number for the Minnesota franchise is 2-9 ATS mark vs. good teams outscoring opponents by six or more points in his tenure. The Ravens (3-2 ATS) are 3-2 and head into their off week next Sunday. They have won and covered just once in their last four games on the road versus NFC foes. Baltimore is 6-1UNDER in its pre-bye week contests and the underdog has covered four in a row in that scenario. This is the first visit ever by the Ravens to the Metrodome, but they have won the previous two meetings both SU & ATS.

Keys to the Game-

The Baltimore defense is not in the Top 5, it is 10th in the NFL. The ferociousness has dissipated. To get back to winners circle, the Ravens have to keep Adrian Peterson running laterally and stayed disciplined to avoid cutbacks. Brett Favre has faced almost no pass rush this season, except for a few plays against San Francisco. Make him feel his age. Baltimore is 8-1 ATS this month after consecutive SU & ATS setbacks and should attack the Vikings in the deep middle and with TE Todd Heap to create more running room. Quit taking stupid penalties.

The Minnesota game plan will include going after pedestrian secondary outside of Ed Reed. The Vikings receivers were considered ordinary until No.4 put on purple jersey. Make Baltimore defend the pass. If Cedric Benson can end the Ravens streak of 40 times not allowing a 100-yard rusher, A.P. should be able to make it 2-0 going the other direction. Peterson will have to maintain ball security, with Baltimore constantly tugging. The Vikes have the top red zone defense (four TDs in 13 possessions inside the 20) in the league, kicker Matt Stover doesn’t figure to beat them booting field goals. Minny is 22-12-1 ATS at home off a win and cover.

3DW Line – Minnesota by 4
Bookmaker.com Line – Minnesota -3, 46

Houston at Cincinnati 1:00E CBS

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-1) are in rarefied air after five weeks, having won four straight games and leading the AFC North division. They are also 3-2 ATS in ’09, but 0-2 ATS as favorites, extending their recent mark in the chalk role to 3-10 ATS. Head coach Marvin Lewis opened as a 6.5-point point favorite in this one vs. Houston, with the line drifting downward. The Texans fell to 2-3 SU&ATS after losing at Arizona and are already three games back to Indy in the AFC South and come in to this one on a surge of 9-2 ATS on the road off another road game. Houston has covered four of its last six away overall. Cincinnati may be starting to regain a bit of home field advantage and comes in as winners of five of seven ATS as host. These clubs met a year ago in Houston, with HC Gary Kubiak’s team securing an easy 35-6 win as nine point favorites.

Keys to the Game-

The Houston running game stinks at 75.4 yards per game (30th). As proven last week, the Texans can move the ball passing, lighting up Arizona in the second half, however that is part of the problem, it’s very difficult to throw the ball consistently for 60 minutes a game, you need a semblance of balance to be thought of as playoff material. The defensive front has contained two mediocre rushing teams (89 total yards) the last two weeks, do the same against Cincinnati and Houston could move to 14-5 ATS as visiting underdog off road contest. QB Matt Shaub has to have complete game and the “Where’s Waldo” pass rush needs to reappear.

Cincinnati has gotten a lot of mileage out of new balanced offense and the longer they keep Houston’s pass offense on the sidelines the better. Test the Texans with Benson and determine how they will react. Do what everyone does, take away Houston running game. Cincy has one definite advantage in doing so, a terrific pass rush to make Shaub hesitant. Oddly, the Bengals are 0-6 ATS versus poor rushing teams averaging 90 or less yards game over the last three seasons. You’ve seen the Ben Stiller movies “Meet the Parents”, that sums up the Cincinnati snapper, holder and kicker on extra points and field goals.

3DW Line – Cincinnati by 2.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Cincinnati -5.5, 46.6

Arizona at Seattle 4:05E FOX

Seattle (2-3 ATS) hopes to head into its bye week at 3-3, but to do so, needs to come up with a second straight big effort at home. This week’s foe is rival Arizona (2-2 ATS), who snapped a five-game losing streak at Seattle in its Super Bowl season of 2008. The Seahawks are off the 41-0 win over Jacksonville, and looking to extend a winning streak of eight straight games (6-2 ATS) in pre-bye week games. They are on a 4-1-1 ATS run at home overall. For Arizona, now 2-2 after turning back Houston, this is the first divisional road game of 2009 and they were 3-0 SU & ATS in that spot last season. Overall, the Cardinals have covered six of previous eight road games. Favorites are 6-2 SU & ATS in the last eight battles of this NFC West rivalry, while eight of 10 meetings have gone OVER the total.

Keys to the Game –

If you or someone you know has a bad back, it just doesn’t go away, especially if you are being knocked around. If Arizona wants to be tied for NFC West lead at the end of the day, they must sack Matt Hasselbeck, something they’ve failed to do the last two contests. Both Cardinals wins are not a coincidence, protect Kurt Warner and the offense hums. Coach Ken Whisenhunt prefers to portray himself as tough guy. He better start living up to image and find a running that would setup play-action passing game, since Larry Fitzgerald’s longest catch is 26 yards. Open running lanes and Zona moves to 5-0 ATS as underdog.

Seattle is a better team with Hasselbeck. Like Warner, the veteran quarterback can pick apart secondaries and the Cardinals surrender a NFL-high 303 yards per game via the pass. Give Hasselbeck time, watch the results. The Arizona run defense is allowing only 2.9 yards per carry, nonetheless the Seahawks must keep trying and bounce a few runs outside the tackles with Julius Jones speed. The best way for Seattle to move to 11-2 ATS as home favorites is to do what they did last week, sack the quarterback five times.

3DW Line - Seattle by 4.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Seattle -3, 46.5

Tennessee at New England 4:15E CBS

Tennessee and New England were expected to be among the top contenders for the AFC title in 2009. Neither has lived up to billing. The Titans have been perhaps the NFL’s biggest disappointment, with 0-5 record (1-4 ATS) and on death’s door after the ugly 31-9 loss to Indy on Sunday night. They would love to head into their bye week with more positive momentum generated from an upset of New England (2-3 ATS). Tennessee has won six of its last seven pre-bye week games, both SU & ATS, but has only gone 4-13 ATS vs. teams gaining over 375 yards per game on offense. New England dropped to 3-2 with its loss at Denver, but comes into this one with a 23-7 ATS record off a loss under Bill Belichick the last several years. The Patriots recently won back-to-back homes games SU & ATS after going 3-10 ATS in their previous 13.

Keys to the Game-

This contest was chosen by default and Tennessee has plenty of blame to go around. Kerry Collins has thrown as many interceptions this season (7) as of all of 2008. With no pass rush to speak of, the defensive have made more mistakes than the Bank of America and injuries have exacerbated the situation. The running game is starting to look like the Detroit Lions when Barry Sanders was there, the occasional burst from Chris Johnson, with truckload of negative plays. The Titans are 0-5 ATS off a SU failure and have gone from the leadership of Cronus, to being banished to Tartarus.

This looks to easy, but when a team is down, step on their throat from the start. The Tennessee secondary has more communication problems than Sprint and Tom Brady and his teammates should attack them with abandon. No reason Wes Welker shouldn’t drive them crazy and Randy Moss exploit the Titans deep. If the Patriots jump out to big lead, this is a good time to start finding a ground game for the rest of the season. New England is 21-8-1 ATS in October and the defense needs to move the line of scrimmage backwards after permitting 424 yards, the most in 18 games.

3DW Line – New England by 14.5
DiammondSportsbook.com Line – New England -9, 40

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.