Early Line Moves

For the Early Line Moves, we seek out the earliest lines and compare them on late Tuesday nights numbers to see what the so-called Line Movers do. By and large their track record is solid and dependable. Last week in college football, they were smashing 5-1 on sides and very nice 4-2 in college totals. This makes season record 28-17-1, 62.2 percent on sides and 22-12, 64.7 percent on Totals in CFB. In the NFL, they were 2-1 on sides bringing record to 9-4, 69.3 percent. On the Totals a 1-1 week makes the updated figure 6-8, 42.8 percent. This is the first time in years I’ve seen the NFL total below .500 at this point of the season. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.

College Sides
South Carolina Pick to -2.5
Ce. Mich -10.5 to – 7.5
TCU -13 to -15.5
USC -25.5 to -28
Oregon -17 to -20.5
No. Carolina -5.5 to -11
Arkansas State 10.5 to 14
Flor. Int +2.5 to -2

College Totals
Troy/FAU 50 to 54 Lost
Mich. St/North 44 to 47
NM St./Nevada 64 to 67
BG/Akron 48.5 to 51.5
LSU/Flor. 49.5 to 46
Tulane/UTEP 55 to 58

NFL Sides
Indianapolis -6.5 to -4
Tampa Bay -3 to -1.5
Seattle +1 to -1

NFL Totals
Cin/NYJ 46.5 to 44.5
Det/Minn 47 to 45
Phil/SF 45 to 42.5
NE/SD 47 to 44.5

LSU vs Florida - You decide

We would love to have your opinion on tonight's Florida and LSU contest. Just click on the comment link and give us your thoughts.

More College Football Betting Material

Wrapped around a big Saturday of college football are a number of other important contests on the wagering docket. Among the monster matchups is Oklahoma State visiting Missouri in a battle of unbeaten Big 12 teams. The Big 10 has two big games with Michigan State playing at unbeaten Northwestern in afternoon action and Penn State making the journey to Madison to take on Wisconsin at night. No matter who starts at quarterback for either team, USC is large favorite over Arizona State. Click here to read more.

College Football Wagering Info

Our only play was incredible loss, as Louisville covered the spread with kickoff return, blocked field goal and fumble recovery, all for touchdowns. I’ll take my chances each time with a team like Memphis that out-gains the opponent 481-299. Just plain bad luck. Let’s turn out attention to what might go right today, like our Top System that is 26-4 ATS. We actually have 2 Top Trends and both involve the same game. An LLC member on a hot streak has an SEC Top Play today. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) Today’s Red River Rivalry shows to PLAY AGAINST Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, off a road blowout win by 28 points or more, and undefeated on the season. This system is 26-4, 86.7 percent dating all the way back to 1992 and suggests playing Texas.

Free Football Trends -2) Two Trends actually collide pointing toward the same direction. Utah is 9-0 ATS after a game where they forced one or less turnovers over the last three seasons and their opponent Wyoming is 0-9 ATS after two or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last two years.

Free Football Selection -3) A member of the Left Coast Connection goes about his business and prefers not to be named and is on 11-2 run in college football and has South Carolina as his top play today.

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Oklahoma vs Texas

Without a doubt the biggest game this week is a familiar one, having been renamed the Red River Rivalry. Once again both bring in vast amounts of talented players, who are well-coached and primed for such a contest. Oklahoma arrives wearing the crown of number one after Baylor battering 49-17. Behind Sam Bradford, the Sooners are one of the most prolific scoring teams in the country, averaging 49.6 points per game. Bradford continues to be one of the most accurate chuckers of the pigskin in the country. The only time the sophomore ever has problems is when heavy pressure gets after him. This will be the assignment of Texas’ defensive front to make Bradford hesitant. Oklahoma is 11-7-1 ATS versus ranked teams in neutral settings.

The Texas defense is showing they are indeed a much more aggressive group under first-year coordinator Will Muschamp, who has the Texas defenders meeting at the quarterback this season. "We've been doing a good job all season," Muschamp said. "I kept telling the guys not to worry about sacks, because we were getting to the quarterback. I told them the sacks would come."

Quarterback Colt McCoy has been a more polished performer as a junior and will start garnering Heisman consideration if he keeps playing this well. Besides his usual pinpoint accuracy, McCoy has been a very effective runner, maybe too effective. Coach Mack Brown needs to find a ball-carrier that can carry the load and let McCoy not feel he has to do everything. Texas is only 2-8 ATS playing Top 10 teams at neutral sites.

This will not be the week for either team to be even slightly off their game. Media types questioned if Texas would look ahead playing a fair Colorado club on the road, and they waxed them 38-14. The Longhorns are outscoring teams by 35.8 points a game and are 21-8 ATS off two or more consecutive games playing Over the Total.

In much the same manner, Oklahoma has been completely dominant, also winning by 35.8 PPG. The only hiccup the Sooners have had was against TCU, gaining only 25 net yards on the ground, however were able to fully exploit the Horned Frogs secondary, passing for a season high 411 yards. Coach Bob Stoops club is 9-1 ATS after out-gaining the opposition by 125 or more total yards in two consecutive games.

Bookmaker.com has Oklahoma as 6.5-point favorites in Dallas with a total of 55.5. Besides the obvious intrigue of the Big 12 battle, the total shows quite a contrast between the two contestants. The Longhorns are 13-1 OVER after out-rushing opponent by 100 or more yards in three straight games, while Boomer Sooner is 9-1 UNDER on a neutral field where the total is between 52.5 and 56.

Oklahoma is the more complete team in this tussle and has won six of last eight, including 28-21 last season. When these Big 12 schools compete, many times the games are competitive, though not necessarily close, with nine of the last 10 decided by double digits. With Texas the underdog, bettors might take heed the dog is 13-7 ATS when these two collide. The winner has gone on to the Big 12 South title nine of 12 years.

Kickoff is at appropriately at high noon Eastern on ABC.

Friday Football Plays and Advise

I’d like to make a public apology to people that have signed up for my Free Plays. Yesterday I gave out a 2* play on Clemson. It’s not the fact they lost that bothers me, but how I came to that conclusion. Among the various publications I write for is the Platinum Sheet. It’s a sports betting tip sheet and in there I make picks for the NFL and college football. In this issue I had Wake Forest as one of my five Best Bets, based on the games we could select from. We have to submit these Monday morning for publication deadline. When I went and studied the numbers, honestly, I didn’t like the game either way and still preferred Wake Forest based on the same reasoning I had chosen them for the tip sheet. As the days wore on, smart bettors I talk to were all on Clemson for more reasons than I want to take the time to explain. I went back and looked at numbers and didn’t see any reason why my thinking was wrong. After literally over 30 people I respect told me the Tigers were the play, I convinced myself that I was the one who was wrong and changed my mind strong enough to make it play. When I saw how the line moved by game time I already knew I was beaten.

In the end, it should have been Wake or no play. Follow the wisdom of Yogi Berra who said, “You know what you know”. This won’t happen again this year. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tulane in conference games, off an upset loss as a double digit home favorite. This system clicks along at a very comfortable 24-3, 88.9 percent the last decade, including picking up two wins already this season.

Free Football Trend -2) The Air Force is 9-0 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) The Consensus from the Left Coast Connection is backing Memphis and I’ll agree for this very reason. I understand it’s not wise to back terrible defensive underdogs of the Tigers; however I have something that makes me overlook that fact. This is Louisville’s first road game and teams that hit the road for the first time on their fifth contest are 9-18-1 ATS when favored or a pick.

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American League Series Preview

If familiarity breeds contempt, than this has the making of a special American League pennant series. Start with the fact these are division partners, hard to call them rivals until this year with the history of the two clubs. In the first 13 games between these teams, the home team won every time. Tampa Bay finally broke the string on Sept. 9 in Boston and won the next day also, winning a series in Beantown for the first time in their existence (1-23-2). Later in the month, the Red Sox won for the first time in Tampa and many believed this is where they would roll past the Rays and win the division, instead Joe Maddon’s young team stood up and won the next two games, effectively holding serve and later captured the AL East crown.

Having seen how well Tampa Bay played all year, it’s easy to forget how incredibly bad this franchise has been since its inception, thus a little history lesson. Until this year, Tampa Bay had never been above .500; in fact they had never won 71 games in a season. Just two seasons ago, the Rays tied the major league record (Philadelphia Athletics 1943) for fewest road wins after July 1, winning three times in last 39 games played. On top of that, they led the major leagues in the number of leads blown with 94 and set a new American League record by losing 60 games that they had led. The Rays led in 121 games, but won only 61. Based on its putrid past and playing in baseball’s toughest division, Tampa had about as much chance of winning the AL East as the world’s fattest man getting married (he is).

The Boston Red Sox are the best example of what a well run organization looks like in baseball today. The Boston Red Sox were New England’s version of the Chicago Cubs for decades. The “Sox” had several close calls over the years to be World Series champions, but in the end, always came up short. That was until 2004, with a new ownership group in place, Red Sox management took what appeared to be huge risk in hiring 28-year old Theo Epstein to be their general manager the prior year. Epstein and the rest of the franchise put a plan together to play a certain style of baseball and trade away players that didn’t fit or trade for those that did. The farm system was immediately revamped to reflect this culture and in short, this has worked to near perfection with two World Series titles in four years.

These two teams had a pretty good baseball fight in June, by the sports standards and bad blood was spilled at least verbally by both teams. Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.97) will pitch Game 1 in Tampa, mostly because how well he has pitched on the road with 9-0 record and Boston winning 11 of his 13 starts. Josh Beckett (14-12, 4-12) will follow, with Red Sox manager Terry Francona saying Beckett is healthy and was just rusty against Los Angeles. Back home, baseball’s best postseason starting pitcher of late Jon Lester (17-6, 3.01) will go and Tim Wakefield (10-11, 4.13) will start Game 4.

Manager Maddon will go with the rotation he had for the ALDS, with James Shields (15-8, 3.58) leading off at Tropicana Field, where he and Rays are 15-3 this year. Left-hander Scott Kazmir (13-8, 3.48) is next being their most experienced member on the staff. When they travel to Boston, Matt Garza (11-10 3.82) will start Game 3 despite being 4-7 on the road. Andy Sonnanstine (14-9, 4.34) will complete the initial go-round.

My Take: Because Boston is so patient at the plate, their approach can be demoralizing to competitors, ask the Angels about the number of two strike hits and two out runs the Red Sox scored in the ALDS. Because Tampa Bay pitchers don’t have overpowering stuff other than Kazmir, Boston will have their chances if they continue same approach. Tampa Bay actually is similar to the Red Sox in how they work at the plate, with a high walk total. The Rays hit more home runs and can make things happen on the base paths with 142 steals this year.

The Red Sox are tough, intelligent team that understands how to win. Their starting pitching beyond Matsuzaka and Lester is a question mark coming into this series. Will Tampa Bay’s youth catch up to them? This team is no fluke and with a couple of guys hitting home runs like B.J. Upton or Evan Longoria, anything becomes possible. Tampa Bay won the season series 10-8, however the “been there, done that” approach of Boston wins out in a long series.

Series odds from Bookmaker.com: Boston -133, Tampa Bay +113

Friday October 10
Boston (Matsuzaka) at Tampa Bay (Shields) 8:37 EDT

Saturday October 11
Boston (Beckett) at Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 8:07 EDT

Monday October 13
Tampa Bay (Garza) at Boston (Lester) 4:37 EDT

Tuesday October 14
Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) at Boston (Wakefield) 8:37 EDT

Thursday October 16
Tampa Bay at Boston if necessary

Saturday October 18
Boston at Tampa Bay if necessary

Sunday October 19
Boston at Tampa Bay if necessary


Offensive – American League
Runs scored -Boston 2nd Tampa Bay 9th
Home Runs -Boston 6th Tampa Bay 5th
Total Bases -Boston 4th Tampa Bay 8th
Slugging Ptc. -Boston 3rd Tampa Bay8th
Walks -Boston 7th Tampa Bay 2nd
On base Ptc. -Boston 1st Tampa Bay 5th

Pitching & Defense
ERA -Boston 4th Tampa Bay 2nd
Strikeouts -Boston 1st Tampa Bay 3rd
Walks -Boston 6th Tampa Bay 8th
On base Ptc. -Boston 4th Tampa Bay 2nd
Putouts -Boston 5th Tampa Bay 1st
Errors -Boston 3rd Tampa Bay 4th

October 9 Sports Betting Information

That was an odd couple of days of almost no sports; thank goodness that’s over. At least was able to catch up on few things I had got behind on in terms of information. We have a very good System play and Top Trend to think about this upcoming weekend in the NFL for today. Our top guy Sal from the Left Coast Connection has made two wagers on the MLB series, see whom he choose to win. Special Note - Clemson has gone from +2.5 point underdog to one point favorite today alone. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY UNDER on any team like Arizona against the total after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, being a team with 60% to 75% winning percentage, playing a team with a winning record. This system is 27-6, 81.8 percent over the last decade. Consider the total for Cowboys and Cards.

Free Football Trend -2) The New Orleans Saints are 1-16 ATS as home favorite of more than two points off a loss and non-cover and the total is 42 or more points.

Free Baseball Selections -3) Sal our baseball guru has bet the Dodgers and the Red Sox to win their respective series.

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National League Series Preview

Postseason baseball has changed dramatically over the last several years. In the past, normally the best team in each league would advance to the World Series and the favored team would win more often than not or the occasional upset would occur. Presently, those days are more gone than the thought of one’s house increasing in value. In today’s modern playoff baseball it’s similar to most people’s outlook on life, “What have you done for me lately?”

The Los Angeles Dodgers took a calculated risk in trading for Manny Ramirez, hoping the talented, yet eccentric player could ignite a clubhouse that was as exciting as trip through a McDonald’s drive-thru. Ramirez proved to the lightning rod, showing his teammates how to be a professional baseball player in terms of preparation, yet having fun and being just wacky enough he could fit right in at Venice Beach. The Dodgers so outplayed the Cubs, you would have thought they won 97 games during the regular season and are since September 6, are 22-8.

While the Chicago Cubs have spent a century not being a very good baseball team, the Philadelphia Phillies have not exactly been stuffing their trophy case with championship hardware. Since first becoming a big league franchise in 1883 (Chester Arthur was President) the Phillies went 97 years before being World Series champions in 1980 and the newest streak is up to a mere 27 years. Philadelphia was barely given credit for winning the NL East a year ago, winning it on the last day of the regular season thanks to the New York Mets collapse and being swept quickly in three games by Colorado. This season the Phillies had many peaks and valleys, yet at crunch time, they were tough. With the series win over Milwaukee, the Phils are on 16-4 run-out.

To win this series, Los Angeles needs to play to its tactical edges. With Rafael Furcal and Russell Martin on-base at the top of the lineup, Manny Ramirez creates fear as a RBI-machine. When Manny either gets a hit or is semi-intentionally walked, this gives James Loney and Andre Ethier a chance to finish off a big inning. The Dodgers bullpen has been as steady as Amy Winehouse, but reliever Jonathan Broxton as been anchor of late. After Cole Hamels, the Dodgers have the next three starters in the NLCS with starters Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda.

Having won 16 of 20, the Philadelphia offense receives a great deal of credit. The real secret to this winning stretch has been the pitching. In their last 20 games, the Phillies have allowed more than four runs just three times, keeping them in games the offense can win. Having home field advantage in the series, the Phils must show patience at the dish. The Dodgers and Philly bullpens have similar ERA’s at 3.34 and 3.21 respectively; however the Dodgers are nearly a full run higher on the road. Chase Utley and his teammates need to go deep into counts, piling up Dodgers pitch counts and takes hacks the L.A. bullpen.

3DW Take – If good pitching stops good hitting, than the edge has to go to the Dodgers. Joe Torre can run out three starters all capable of winning each game and a case can be made in Lowe’s favor in the opener, being 40-20 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season. (Team’s Record) It’s difficult to gauge Dodgers mediocre road record on the season, as this is a different team. In order to win the series, Philadelphia is going to need two wins on the days Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer pitch and not sure that will happen. Home field has meant everything between these two teams, each sweeping a four game series this season. Slight edge to the Dodgers to advance.


Series odds from Sportbook.com: Dodgers -110, Phillies -110

Thursday October 9
L.A. Dodgers (Lowe) at Philadelphia (Hamels) 8:22 EDT

Friday October 10
L.A. Dodgers (Billingsley) at Philadelphia (Myers) 4:35 EDT

Saturday October 12
Philadelphia (Moyer) at L.A. Dodgers (Kuroda) 8:22 EDT

Sunday October 13
Philadelphia () at L.A. Dodgers () 8:22 EDT

Tuesday October 15
Philadelphia at L.A. Dodgers if necessary

Thursday October 17
L.A. Dodgers at Philadelphia if necessary

Friday October 18
L.A. Dodgers at Philadelphia if necessary



Offensive – National League
Runs scored -Dodgers 13th Philadelphia 3rd
Home Runs -Dodgers 13th Philadelphia 1st
Total Bases -Dodgers 13th Philadelphia 3rd
Slugging Ptc. -Dodgers 13th Philadelphia 2nd
Walks -Dodgers 11th Philadelphia 5th
On base Ptc. -Dodgers 6th Philadelphia 7th

Pitching & Defense
ERA -Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 4th
Strikeouts -Dodgers 5th Philadelphia 11th
Walks -Dodgers 2nd Philadelphia 6th
On base Ptc. -Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 6th
Putouts -Dodgers 9th Philadelphia 7th
Errors -Dodgers 10th Philadelphia 5th

Defensive Dogs are Great Bets in College Football

It was probably around 1995 when I first came across this betting system for college football. For some reason it stuck in my mind, probably because it always made sense, though for some reason never committed it the vast amount of material I keep track of in all the various sports. In fact, one part of the original system I found is not an aspect of this equation, strictly because it’s been forgotten. As you will read, this will have no affect on how profitable this college football betting system can be.

Like most of the systems that I uncover, I prefer to keep in simple, not having too much to clutter my simpe mind or think about with my University of Phoenix degree (just kidding). What we want is a clean system, easy to understand and an easy way to track down the information. Here it is:

Look to Play On a college football team that allows 275 or less yards per game, particularly in the role of underdog.

The first part of this system makes all the sense in the world, since the number of teams we’re talking about is very few from year to year. The old cliché, “defenses win championships” holds up, even in weekly situations, because if any team is holding opponents to 275 or fewer yards, they should be in almost any game they are playing in.

To prove the point, we went back five years to discover how good these defensive gems actually were. It must be noted, this perspective is based on the whole body of work for the season, not the individual games and team ranking at that moment. This strengthens the point at the end of any particular year. However, during the course a season, starting this week, you should have confidence to consider any team for a potential wager. Never base a selection on one aspect, yet if you have other reasons to like specific team, this could be the clincher as a reason to officially make such a wager.

Starting in 2003, the two best teams in the country that season were LSU and Oklahoma. Both teams had exceptional regular seasons and were chosen to play in the BCS championship in New Orleans. The Tigers ended up holding teams to 252 yards per game on the way to BCS title and were monster money-makers at 11-2 that season. The only time they were an underdog was against Oklahoma in season finale. The Sooners had been among the best defensive teams all season and were unbeaten until they lost to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma was never an underdog in 2003. Miami-FL. ended up being second in the country in total defense that season and was an underdog twice that year, both times to Florida State, whom they beat during the regular season and in the Orange Bowl.

Four teams made the cut in 2004; they were N.C. State, Alabama, LSU and Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack (5-6) and the Crimson Tide (6-5) were run of the mill teams because of terrible offenses. N.C. State finished 82nd nationally and Alabama 97th, proving even outstanding defenses need some help. Because of these deficiencies, Bama was 2-2 ATS as underdogs and Wolfpack was slightly better at 2-1-1 ATS. A year after being the kings of college football, LSU was 9-3 overall and was 2-1 ATS as underdogs. Virginia Tech was one of the surprises of 2004 in posting a 9-2 regular season. The Hokies were led a thumping defense and gave an unbeaten Auburn team all they could handle in the Sugar Bowl, before falling 16-13, catching six points. They were perfect 3-0 on the receiving end of points.

In 2005, three of the same teams that were on the defensive list from the previous year were on it again. Virginia Tech, LSU and Alabama made the roster and Miami-FL reappeared again. These four universities were barking dogs in the truest sense that season, posting an 8-1-1 against the spread record, led by the Hokies who were once against 3-0.

Two seasons ago, the NCAA instituted rule changes to speed up the college football game, which led 14 fewer plays per game that season. At the same time, defenses just happened to have a more dominant season and 10 teams held the opposition to 275 yards or less, led by the omnipresent Hokies of Frank Beamer, who surrendered just 219.5 yards per game. No question the fewer plays mattered, based on averages. Of the 14 plays, presume seven each were on offense and the better defensive teams of that season allowed 4.4 yards per play, lowering any teams total by at least 30 yards per game.

It turned out to be a banner campaign for Rutgers, who emerged from nowhere to hit the national spotlight and their fourth-ranked defense was 5-0 ATS as underdogs. Michigan won both their matchups on the receiving end of points and Georgia was 3-1 against the number in the same role. The top 10 defense teams were 17-9-1 ATS when positioned as underdogs by oddsmakers.

In 2007, those rules were reconfigured and only two teams were stout enough to repress the opposition from making more than 275 yards of offense. By this time of the last football season, Ohio State and LSU had distinguished themselves as the two most talented teams in the country. The Buckeyes arrived earlier than believed, however the talent was obvious. The Bayou Tigers didn’t always play their best football for 60 minutes, but they made plays when they had to. Because these teams were so good, neither was an underdog until Ohio State was given the role in the BCS championship game. LSU had their way with coach Jim Tressel’s Buckeyes, making this the only game that qualified for this system.

Here is a review of the years of this system against the spread.

2007 0-1
2006 17-9-1
2005 8-1-1
2004 9-4-1
2003 3-0

Total 37-15-3, 71.1 percent

As previously stated, this is with the benefit of looking back, not being in the present. There are currently 20 teams that are under the 275-yard threshold. One has to have football acumen to realize Boston College probably doesn’t figure to be here for long, having played Kent State, Central Florida and FCS squad Rhode Island.

Louisville is unlikely to be hanging out in this neighborhood for long, since teams that give 23 points per game, will eventually find their watermark.

Coach Bob Toledo is making exceptional alterations at Tulane and the defense is much improved, since the days when a younger Tommy Bowden had an unbeaten Green Wave squad in 1998. Nonetheless, the idea of Tulane hanging in the area is ludicrous. They fell from eight to 17th in total defense after Army ran roughshod over the Green Wave for 290 yards rushing. With five of last seven remaining games on the road, playing in offensive-minded Conference USA, it seems Tulane will stay with this contingent as likely as the return of “Elf” to NBC.

Just this past weekend, underdog members of this club, Florida State, South Carolina and Kentucky all covered the linemakers number, with the first two winning outright.

Among the teams that fit this week are LSU as an underdog at Florida, holding teams to 262.2 yards per game and Tennessee at Georgia.

Being able to Play On a defensive dandy on the receiving end of points can be a very enjoyable and profitable venture.

Betting Football in Rearview Mirror

With how the year has started, beginning to wonder if we will see a return to 2006 with college football teams having lost exactly three games against the spread. This is subject which has been followed the previous four seasons. In 2005 and 2007, the results were mediocre with these spread losers 29-28 and 27-23 ATS respectively. Two seasons ago was a watershed year to play against these teams with 16-33 ATS record and this season they have started 4-7 against the spread. This is worth keeping a close eye on. Of similar interest for sports bettors is teams off three consecutive covers are 5-8-1 ATS in next outing.

Delving into another area, we look at all college football teams off a home underdog win in next game. Thus far in 2008, these teams are 4-10 ATS. After being around .500 in previous seasons, FBS squads were 23-29 ATS last year and the trend continues in an election year (not that has anything to do with it) to play against these teams. To be honest, this is what I thought it would be every year, with college age football players having a “football hangover” from winning as home dogs and coming up flat, being slightly overrated the next week.

Do’s

The up and down lethargy associated with the Georgia Tech football program has been replaced by crisp, hard-nosed, solid football at the Atlanta based university. Head coach Paul Johnson has brought a disciplined style of organization, with different expectations in his first season. Johnson’s run option attack is chewing up 290.2 yards per game, which is fifth in the country. Yes, the Yellow Jackets still turn the ball over too much learning the intricacies of how to run the offense. However, they can overcome this problem by having the 14th ranked defense that has more than one player in the defensive line with NFL ability. This is a Play On team, already at 4-0 ATS.

I know I’ve been over this more than once and you might be getting sick of reading about it, but it bears repeating, since it’s such a winner. With not many games remaining, the Big East is 6-21 ATS in non-conference play. This is so bad it breaks up the day for Wall Street workers, looking for something to cheer them up. In an article I wrote on this subject, I also mentioned once conference play started, underdogs would hold real value, as the league as whole is right with “Lipstick Jungle” when it comes to rankings. To date, all four favorites in Big East action are 0-4 ATS.

How can you not like a team that scores 56.4 points a game and averages 596 yards a game? The Tulsa Golden Hurricane was uncertain quantity coming into this campaign, after losing three-year starting quarterback Paul Smith. Nine other offensive players returned and new starter David Johnson has fit in better than John Stamos on ER. At 5-0 and 5-0 ATS, the remainder of the schedule is doable, though hardly certain. Even if Arkansas is down, they are still an SEC team and will present Tulsa problems with their speed in early November. Two weeks later if they are 9-0, a trip to Houston might be the last major obstacle for an unbeaten season. Scoring 50 points a game will help any team cover spreads.

Don’ts

You’ve heard the expression “sometimes things get worse before they get better”; this would apply in Pullman, WA, home of Washington State. After four non-productive seasons with Bill Doba as head coach, Cougars brass picked up the services of Paul Wulff, who had built a strong program at FCS Eastern Washington. Dismiss the 48-9 romp over Portland State and the Wazzou offense has scored 50 total points in the five contests. On the way, the defense has allowed 48.2 points a game, which means they have lost by 38 PPG against schools in BCS conferences. Finding another win or two and cover might require the services of “The Mentalist”.

The fortunes of North Texas have plummeted since winning the Sun Belt Conference four years in a row and going to New Orleans Bowl from 2001-04. Starting in 2005, the Eagles are 7-35, 14-26 ATS since that time. How bad are things in Denton, TX, the former Mean Green is next to last in the country in points scored at 13 a game and dead last in points allowed at a ghastly 52.2 per game. It would not seem prudent to wager on this sad Sun Belt squad.

NFL Betting Thoughts

In the NFL, time zone travel continues to be an issue, as teams flying two or more time zones away from home are 4-8 ATS. Home dog lovers continue to take their lumps at 7-14 against the oddsmaker. Thus far real money can be made finding short favorites right near game time. Any NFL team that is favored by three or less points is 20-10-1 ATS thus far.

What’s the problem with San Diego? Start with all those years LaDainian Tomlinson never played in the preseason. When he was younger, his body could respond to hits more quickly and he could get in a groove swiftly. Last year L.T. started slowly and couldn’t go later in the AFC title game. Again trying to protect the 29-year old running back, who saw no action in the preseason and he’s been dinged in each game. The Chargers can’t run him to set the tone of the game, forced to rely on quarterback Philip Rivers. In a league where quarterback play is so important, San Diego has the worst pass defense in the league surrendering 265.6 yards per game. Add these factors together and Norv Turner has to come up with answers quick.

In watching the Green Bay Packers, one obvious visible note, they are not playing hard and tackling worse. I would like to throw kudos to John Madden for bringing up the lack of effective tackling Green Bay defenders perform. In the Atlanta loss, at least a 15 times, Packer defensive players were in position to make tackles for little or no gain for Falcons runners and instead of wrapping up, they tried to use a shoulder and were bumped off. With injuries piling up and Aaron Rodgers trying to play with a bad wing, the Pack is quickly developing as a play against team.

Enough all ready, sit Jon Kitna! He’s done as a starting quarterback. Let Drew Stanton or somebody else play on a team that will need a fresh start in 2009.

What does a Super Bowl win do for your confidence? Ask Eli Manning. The Giants and Manning were strictly middle of the road in passing yards per attempt in the mid six’s during his career, now Eli is leading a team that is at 7.5 YPA and sixth in this category. Hard to bet against the “other” Manning and his team right now.

Slow Sports Betting Tuesday

With nothing going on the next two days in sports, here is a preview I wrote for Tuesday night's Sun Belt contest.

Coming off a conference championship season and a New Orleans Bowl romp of Memphis, this was supposed to be a banner campaign for Florida Atlantic with 18 returning starters. Instead the weight of another imposing non-conference schedule has proven too much to bare and carried over into Sun Belt action for the Owls. Playing their fourth road contest last week, the Owls controlled Middle Tennessee State 13-0 in the latter stage of the fourth quarter. However, because of four turnovers by Florida Atlantic, the Blue Raiders had one last chance and connected on a 32-yard Hail Mary pass and kicked the extra point with no time on the clock to come away with a kick in the gut 14-13 victory.

Heading into a big showdown Tuesday against Sun Belt Conference title-contender Troy, coach Howard Schnellenberger was still miffed days later about the improbable loss. So Schnellenberger laid into his team during a pre-practice gathering Thursday at the school's practice facility. "I've chewed a lot of football teams out but this is the first time I felt that it was my responsibility to take the hard line (at FAU)," Schnellenberger said. "This is what they needed. They're grown men now. They have enough ability to win and we didn't."

The Owls are at least pleased to be back home and this is critical contest if they are looking to repeat as Sun Belt champs. Florida Atlantic is not in the best position, being 3-7 ATS off a conference loss. Quarterback Rusty Smith is really sputtering. The junior has been projected as NFL draft choice, yet has not thrown a touchdown pass in three games and been intercepted six times after throwing nine all of last season.

The FAU run defense will have to come up big. Last week they held M.T.S. to 55 yards, which is not as imposing as it sounds with the Blue Raiders 118th in the country at 66.4 yards per game. Troy averages 180 yards a game on the ground and is balanced offensively throwing for 262 yards a contest.

Troy’s sophomore quarterback Jamie Hampton has made some mistakes, but has rewarded coach Larry Blakeney by making big plays with his arm and legs. He had passed for more than 900 yards and nine touchdowns and also has shown the ability to hurt opponents running the ball. The Trojans are averaging 442 yards a game against opponents that have allowed 405 YPG.

The Troy defense is solid at linebacker with Boris Lee and Bear Woods, who are having all-conference type seasons, nevertheless, the strength of the Trojans defense is the secondary, ranking 17th in the country at 160.2 yards allowed and only 5.9 yards per attempt. This is a big plus against what could be crisp FAU pass attack.

Troy will also have revenge on their minds, having lost in the final game of last season to Florida Atlantic 38-32, as 16-point home favorites to cost them conference title and bowl game. Knocking the Owls out of contention would be sweet redemption.
Bookmaker.com has Troy as 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 51. The Trojans are 5-1 ATS in this role in conference the last three seasons, including starting the year with a winner at Mid. Tenn. State 31-17 as a six-point choice. Florida Atlantic is 9-5 ATS as a single digit underdog and 2-2 against the spread as home underdog since linemakers started listing their games in 2004.

Look for the team that can capitalize on mistakes to come out the winner. FAU has committed 10 turnovers in last three games and Troy has 13 miscues on the year. ESPN2 will have the broadcast commencing at 8 Eastern with Troy 4-1 and 3-1 ATS versus the Owls.

One other bit of information to consider, Troy is 1-5 ATS in revenge games if opponent is off two or more straight losses.

Sports Betting Info for October 6

In the interest of fairness, we’re going to take a 1-1-1 record for yesterday. Anyone who viewed the blog an hour before game time on Houston and Indianapolis would have been correct at -3.5 points. Accordingly to our contacts, about 60 minutes before the game, the line moved to Indy -4 and just 10-15 minutes before kickoff, several books went to -4.5 (though not all), with extremely heavy action on the Colts. Seeing this happened so close it kickoff, it seems highly unlikely many had this contest at -4.5, but we’ll side even-handed play and call it a push. If you used the Thursday system with New England, our overall record was a profitable 2-1-1 week in the NFL for Sunday. In our Top Trends, we’ll give you and option with two superior angles. Our Top System is a 75 percent winner relating only to MNF. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) We come back with last week’s Monday night system, which is to fade any Monday night football team that lost against the spread on the road last week when their opponent covered the number at home. This easy to understand system is 18-6, 75 percent the last dozen seasons. This means play New Orleans.

Free Baseball Trend -2) John Lackey and the Angels are 9-1 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last two seasons or you might like Jon Lester and Boston who is 13-1as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.

Free Football Selection -3) In all honesty, surprised this many bettors from the Left Coast Connection are playing the Monday Night contest, easily the most this season by the tally I receive. Fifteen members are on Minnesota and six on New Orleans.

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Free NFL Picks for Week 5

Officially 3Daily Winners was 2-1 yesterday, but I tip my hat to Slick Rick for changing his play as a courtesy to our readers. He understood the line value on Iowa was gone and took another team. In this case Baylor was wrong (SR was 5-1 by the way yesterday) yet he was willing to do the right thing. Overall, with the other college systems from earlier this week, we closed yesterday at profitable 3-2. Kendall is back with another Free Play, he has been just sick (in a good way) this year. Our Free Trend takes a peek at what might happen into tonight’s Sunday night contest. Our Top System is 17-4, 80.9 percent and looks at a divisional game this afternoon. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON a road team that lost by three or less points at home before they had a bye. Why this works is these teams have had two weeks to get over a close loss and are ready to move on. This staunch system is 17-4 ATS, 80.9 percent. Play the Colts for this one.

Free Football Trend -2) Pittsburgh is 0-7 ATS when on the road after a home win.

Free Football Selection -3) Our King of the NFL, Kendall is 17-2 this season and is taking a team from my area, Arizona to cover the short number.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.