Early Line Moves

A couple weeks ago we introduced Early Line Moves. We seek out the earliest lines and compare them on late Tuesday nights to see what the so-called Line Movers do who bet football. By and large their track record is solid and dependable. Last week in college football, they were ordinary 4-4 on sides and sharp 3-0 in college totals. This makes season record 19-9-1, 67.8 percent on sides and 8-5, 61.5 percent on Totals in CFB. In the NFL, they were perfect 4-0 on sides and 0-1 in Totals, bring record to 6-2 on sides and 2-2 on Totals. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.

College Sides
Mississipp1 -4.5 to -7
North Carolina –Pick to -2.5
Oregon -13 to -10
Akron -7 to -10
Missouri -31 to -34

College Totals
Ohio/Northw. 48 to 51
Miami-O/Cincy 50 to 47
Navy/ Rutgers 58 to 60.5
WF/FSU 51 to 48
CMU/ Purdue 60 to 64
Idaho/Utah St. 67 to 63
NM St/UTEP 53 to 58.5

NFL Sides
Tennessee -6.5 to -4.5
San Diego -7.5 to -9

College Football Free Plays

Sometimes the gambling gods work for and against you the same day. Yesterday our Top System had no business winning, until the Cubs scored four runs in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game and went on win in extra innings. The day’s Top Trend looked rock solid until Tampa Bay blew a two run lead at home in the ninth, allowing the Twins to score five times in the loss. I felt for Sal, after the excitement wore off of Colorado players, it was clear West Virginia was the better team and should have beaten the Buffalos by 10 points no problem. However ‘Teers coach Bill Stewart found a way to have the game go into overtime and eventually lost. In spite of being what appears to be a very nice man, Stewart seems more cut out working on a bowl committee, wearing a bright sports jacket and shaking everybody’s hand and telling them how wonderful they are. We have three Free Football plays ready for Saturday. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST a road team like Troy after allowing six points or less in last game, against opponent after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This system is a consistent winner at 36-9 ATS, 80 percent and says back Ohio State.

Free Football Trend -2)
Fresno State is 1-11 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) Brian from the Left Coast Connection makes five college football plays each Saturday and is 9-5-1 thus far. One of his plays this week will be on Utah minus the points.

3Daily Winners Free Sports Selections

We had a perfect 2-0 day here at 3DW and the vast majority of LCC members were right on Louisville last night. When you go to Vegas and you hit a hot streak, it only makes sense to ride the wave and that is exactly what we are doing with today’s Top System, just updating the situation to fit with unreal 36-1 record. The always popular Perfect Trend returns and should have real valuable at 14-0. Sal has been the best money-maker in college football and is on one side tonight. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs, like the Brewers with a money line of +175 to +250, who are cold hitting team batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like the Cubs Rich Harden with a WHIP of under 1.000 over his last five starts. Why mess with a good thing. This system is a staggering 36-1, including 11-0 this season.

Free Baseball Trend -2) James Shields and Tampa Bay are 14-0 against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more this season.

Free Football Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection is 11-4, 73.3 percent in college football this season and is backing West Virginia at -3 tonight.

NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free System, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, available today after 2 Eastern.

Looking ahead in Rearview Mirror in Wagering on Football

Home underdogs are well liked by supposedly bettors with more acumen; however they and everyone else might want to be careful which dogs have some bark. The NFL home teams catching points last were 1-4 ATS; the season to date record is 5-8 against the number. Teams like St. Louis and Detroit look like they will have a hard time all season no matter how many points they’ll be receiving and Cincinnati, Miami and Kansas City might not be that far behind.

College football favorites took it on the chin again this week with 19-22-3 ATS record. The double digit home favorite actually did fairly well with 7-4-1 ATS record if they didn’t play a Sun Belt Conference team. This past week, home favorites of 10 or more against the Sun Belt were 1-3-1 against the number and are 6-6-1 ATS on the season. The spread record is not all that bad considering the SBC is 1-12 straight up in this role. Thank goodness USC won so decisively against Ohio State or it would have been an even blacker week for the Pac-10. As a group, the conference was 3-7 in non-conference play and 2-8 ATS the spread. Three favorites lost outright and Oregon was fortunate to survive at Purdue. The lack of defense is the likely answer with the Pac-10 being 15-5 Over in non-league games. Want more proof about the Pac-10’s struggles, what about 0-5 and 1-4 ATS against the Mountain West this season.

Do’s

If coach Gary Pinkel wants Chase Daniel to not just go to New York, but win the Heisman Trophy this season, he is doing everything possible for that to occur. Missouri leads the country in total offense at 597.3 yards a game and scoring at 57.6 points in three outings. The weapons are abundant with the likes of Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman to name a few. The Tigers are 14-3 ATS in all games since late 2006 and face an improving Buffalo team that can move the ball, but is slow defensively by Big 12 standards. Missouri goes to Nebraska the following week to open conference play, however catch the Huskers off big battle with Virginia Tech.

I picked TCU to win the Mountain West and nothing I have seen has changed my mind. Opponent hardly ever run on the Horned Frogs (1.7 YPC this season) and when they have a solid back seven like this year, they are efficient. Offensively, coach Gary Patterson (not the cartoonist) has moved beyond talented, but oft-injured and troubled running back Aaron Brown to options that are nearly as good. Quarterback Andy Dalton has improved tremendously in decision making and mentally is catching up to ability. TCU can name the score in alphabet contest against SMU and has covered only one of last five due to boredom. Excellent measuring stick next week when Frogs travel to Oklahoma, where they have won last two times (2005, 1996) they visited. TCU is 8-0 ATS on the receiving end of eight or more points on the road.

Oklahoma State has not and will not play an opponent that gives them a real challenge until Oct.10 at Missouri. Until then QB Zak Robinson will lead the number three rushing attack that is more diverse than the Feds AIG bailout deal. The Cowboys have big bodies up front that can help move the chains for the running backs. Okie State has enough speed on the perimeter, they can help T. Boone Pickens kick start his wind power idea. Don’t think Oklahoma State will discount Troy next week off a bye after being embarrassed by them on national TV 41-23 last season. Cowboys are 18-9-3 ATS as double digit home favorites.


Don’ts

If you are from the Eastern part of the United States and are a big fan of college football and think the Big East Conference rocks, proceed to next paragraph. The Big Least is 2-14 ATS this season, 2-14. That’s a worse record than the Milwaukee Brewers this month. Rutgers lost first two games at home by total of 49 points. At least Morgan State should stem that tide at the end of the month and only local bookies will take action on that one. The only enjoyment Syracuse fans will have this season is going to movie theatre and seeing former Orangemen Ernie Davis in, “The Express”. Don’t be surprised before the end of the season if coach Greg Robinson is in the express checkout line for departing coaches, with his recruits ranking 115th in total defense.

Was Hawaii really unbeaten and playing in the Sugar Bowl when the year began? Losing at Florida was a given and at Oregon State was not expected to be a luau, but 17 total points scored in those games! Things should improve once WAC play starts and more home games are played, nevertheless betting Hawaii, in what has to be a shock to the returning players from last season, would not in the words of the first president named Bush, “be prudent.”

UAB has already lost first three games and failed to cover any of them thanks to defense that is 119th or last in the country. (Western Kentucky is the 120th team in the FBS but is on unofficial purgatory from statistics standpoint until they become Sun Belt member next year) The Blazers have 17 returning starters back and it doesn’t look they that will help. This university gives very little support to the athletic department, with some of the most meager facilities in the country. UAB for years was a superb wager as a home dog or road dog, when they had a talented quarterback and receivers, which does not appear to be the case these days in Birmingham.

NFL Betting Thoughts

For those bettors that are emotionally involved in living and dying with every play on your bets, this past weekend was heaven and hell. The favored team trailed in six different early games, causing a great deal of consternation. If you have the NFL ticket, teams like Carolina, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Cincinnati must have ate the same pregame meal the Cal Bears had the day before as they were as dull as a Ralph Nadar speech.

Three of the teams, the Colts, Panthers and Redskins came back to win and cover the number, spreading joy and misery at the same time. Watching the games, the sensation was exactly the same as the NCAA Basketball Tournament, where the team you picked has nice halftime lead, only to be blown out in second half and fail to cover.

Arizona is in position to win the NFC West, thanks to 2-0 start covering both games. Seattle was the odds-on favorite, but has yet to win and resembles a mash unit with so many injuries. The Cardinals season will likely hinge on the five games they will play in the Eastern Time Zone, as they are 9-21 ATS on the road against non-division teams.

Most everyone assumed Jacksonville was ready to take the next step in progression towards the Super Bowl. A 0-2 start and staring at Indianapolis this week, places the Jaguars in peril, just to make the playoffs this season. With three offensive linemen injured in the middle of the line, David Garrard is under more duress and the ground game can’t get cranked up. No point on betting on Jacksonville right now.


Media and other thoughtsDavid Norrie and Terry Gannon are announcers for college football games on ESPN/ABC. Norrie is a former UCLA quarterback and had a brief career in the NFL. I’ve heard him call two games this season as an analyst and maybe I just never noticed before, but if you listen to one of his games, there are 14 all-conference players with NFL ability or sure-fire first day draft potential players on the field on any given play. These are college players and I have no problem talking them up, since they are still young adults. But to blatantly suggest the talent level is this high on the field of play undermines his credibility as an analyst.

Ohio State was decidedly whacked by USC, but the aftermath led me to rethink a position. In today’s world of sports, either you are champions or chumps. Ohio State is in the conversation for one of the three best programs of this decade and has one any many BSC titles as USC. No doubt they have stunk in their last three big games and deserve a certain amount of criticism, which is another blog post. But for those in the media to call the Buckeyes –LOSERS- is wrong.

Is Phil Mickelson a loser, being the second best golfer in the world, having to be born when Tiger Woods came around? What about those that work at Pepsi are they losers, having never passed up Coke for the top spot in soft drinks? What about the commission salesmen who are second or third in their companies for selling whatever, are they losers for not being the best?

Only one person, team or company can be at the top of the sheet. That doesn’t mean the others aren’t striving to be better, quite the contrary, maybe the circumstances don’t allow them to reach the top or sometimes they are just not as good. The last thing Ohio State players are is losers. Keep in mind, if New England played the New York Giants five times, who do you think would have won the majority of the time? On that day, the Giants were better, that’s all.

Free Baseball Plays for Hump Day

There is nothing wrong with a sweet 3-1 day here at 3Daily Winners. Our System selection won on an underdog yesterday and today we bring back a system that we have used often here, and once you read about it, you will understand why. Today’s Top Trend follows the exploits of the best pitcher in baseball this season. No Free Plays today, just interesting info. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like the Astros with a money line of +175 to +250, who are cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like Marlins Ricky Nolasco, who has a WHIP under 1.000 over his last five starts. This mellifluous system is 35-1 the last three years, including 10-0 this season.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Though we could use yesterday’s top trend again by adding one since it fits (see Below), we’ll keep it fresh and see if Cliff Lee and Cleveland can improve to 14-1 when the total is 8 to 8.5.

Free Football Selection -3) Baseball plays are pretty split, with nothing standing out. Though not official play, 10 members of LCC on Louisville and 4 on Kansas State tonight.

NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free System, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, available after 5:30 Eastern weekdays.

Betting the Big East Takes Guts

When the ACC raided the Big East, many thought this would signal the end of this league as a power and talk circulated that potentially this conference should be decertified as a BCS league. Naturally the conference members howled their disapproval and went out and did a little pilfering of their own in grabbing Cincinnati, Louisville and South Florida from Conference-USA.

The first year turned out better than the Big East could have imagined, with conference champion, West Virginia pulling a stunning upset of Georgia 38-35 as six-point underdog in the Sugar Bowl in 2006.

Big East Commissioner Mike Tranghese was absolutely thrilled about how the 2007 season played out. Barely one year removed from dismissal talk, this conference had three teams in the Top 10 in the country in November, with several key games to be played. Louisville ended up being the champion of the Big East and did the league proud with a 24-13 win over Wake Forest in the Orange Bowl.

Last season was not quite as exciting as the previous year, but all eyes were on West Virginia, who was in line to potentially play for the national championship with a win over rival Pittsburgh at home. The Mountaineers were monstrous 29-point favorites, yet fell to the Panthers 13-9, after quarterback Pat White went down with an injury. The whole Rich Rodriquez saga ensued, with him taking the Michigan job and few gave West Virginia a chance in the Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma as seven point underdogs. Instead, a proud group of Mountaineers was energized and they out-muscled and out-fought a Sooners team that didn’t know what hit them, winning 48-28 under then interim coach Bill Stewart.

Fast forward to today, after three weeks of the college football season, the Big East is 10-9 in non-conference play and get this 1-14 against the spread. (Really) What has happened in the course of a few seasons, at the pinnacle of the league’s success?

One of the most underrated and not frequently discussed aspects of conferences is the coaches in the league. Television commentators will question the judgment of a coach’s decision, yet will never go into the intricacies how good a coach one may actually be. This shouldn’t be surprising given the knowledge those working on public airwaves have to use these coaches to find out information and are seeking nuggets of information that can be used on a broadcast. Alienate the coach by criticizing him, essentially access is denied.

That is not a problem here, as we can dissect what is currently happening in the Big East. West Virginia, the reigning conference champs, had plenty of questions about the hiring of Bill Stewart to what has become a Top 10 program. Stewart is an affable man, a big smile and considered to be a smart assistant coach. With the bar having been raised under Rodriguez’s tenure, is he the right man to continue the structure? He’s put in a new offense that suits his preferences, yet as East Carolina game proved, the players are somewhat miscast and searching to understand what they need to do. With the Big East having only eight members, this leaves room for five non-conferences games. The ‘Teers have not been strong against these types of opponents and are 12-14-1 ATS since 2003.

Louisville has gone from a powerhouse to also-ran, with the departure of nomadic Bobby Petrino. The talent level has shrunk like a 100 percent cotton shirt thrown into a hot dryer and the natives are getting restless about coach Steve Kragthorpe spoiling what has been a very good thing for the Papa John Cardinal Stadium crowd. The Cards are 14-11 ATS in non-league games, but just 1-4 ATS the last two years.

Pittsburgh and Syracuse, two original members are saddled with two former NFL coaches, who are not getting the job done. Dave Wannstedt is 17-20 at Pitt with 16-18ATS record and has never shown a proclivity towards winning as a head coach anywhere. Syracuse fired Paul Pasqualoni for too many 6-6 to 8-4 seasons and hired Greg Robinson. Those numbers would be a welcome relief for the Orange fans with Robinson 7-31 and 15-23 ATS.

Connecticut’s Randy Edsall and Rutgers Greg Schiano both have proven to be solid coaches in building programs from nothing. Now they have reached a level of success, can either overcome limitations by the universities to take programs to championship levels? Coming into this 2008 campaign, both coaches had done well in the last five years in non-conference play (Rutgers 17-7-1 ATS and UConn 17-12-1 ATS), however most of those numbers were as undervalued underdogs.

Cincinnati has Brian Kelley in his second season. Kelly had unbelievable success at D-ll level with 118-35-2 record and is known for no-nonsense approach. Too early to predict what happens in the Queen City.

Presently the most stable program is South Florida, who didn’t have football 12 years ago. Jim Leavitt took the job in Tampa and quickly has ascended this program to alarmingly unique heights, starting from scratch. Most of his assistants have been there since day one, helping provide the continuity which has helped make this work. Even with this uprising, the Bulls are pedestrian 9-10 ATS in non-conference play in just over five seasons.

With the Big East on such shaky ground from coaching perspective, what should one expect once conference play starts? It would stand to reason underdogs of all sorts should do well given the state of affairs. Here is a chart explaining how these teams have performed as home favorites in the Big East as long as they have been part of the conference.

Big East ATS Records as Favorites
For Conference Play Last Five Years

Cincinnati 1-2 (3-years as member)
Connecticut 4-1 (4-years as member)
Louisville 6-4 (3-years as member)
Pittsburgh 6-3
Rutgers 2-5
South Florida 2-3 (3-years as member)
Syracuse 5-3
West Virginia 4-9-1


This conference has been a bookmaker’s dream with 30-30-1 ATS record on home favorites, with existing teams over the last five years. With the current coaching lineup, the numbers are actually more in favor of the road underdog than at first glance. Pittsburgh might be 6-3 ATS as a home Big East favorite, but all three losses have come with Wanny as coach. Basically the same is true of Syracuse, with their three spread losses coming with Robinson wearing the headset.

Watch closely who these Big East teams are matched against in non-conference play this week, trying to fully understand not only the opponent, but who is on the other sideline as coach. When league play starts, watch the spreads of home favorites, being able to take advantage of quality situations.

Top Tuesday Free Plays

Kendall of the Left Coast Connection finished off a 4-0 NFL weekend with winner on the Eagles and is 8-1 on the season. Today’s Top System involves division rivals and is a rare play that hits 80 percent of the time. The perfect Trend is back and is in the Keystone State. In an odd occurrence, the LCC has two unanimous MLB plays today. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home teams like the Cubs who are very good offensive team scoring 5.3 runs or more a game, against a very good starting pitcher like Milwaukee's C.C. Sabathia with ERA under three in the NL, with a starting pitcher like Ryan Dempster who allows 5.5 or less hits a start. This rare system is 8-2 since 2006.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Pittsburgh Pirates are 0-10 at home when +150 to +200 underdogs this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) I hasn't happened but maybe 10 times all season, but the members of the Left Coast Connection both unanimously support Philadelphia and Toronto in MLB action. In each case, eight members picked these two teams with no dissenters.

NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free System, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, available after 5:30 Eastern weekdays.

Monday's Free Plays from 3Daily Winners

Another nice 2-1 day as our System and Free Play were both Winners. Kendall has been scintillating the start the NFL season at 7-1 and gave us the Packers yesterday. Today he has side on the Monday night game with advice. Our Top Trend checks in on the Minnesota Twins tonight. There was not any outstanding baseball systems today, leading us to look a college football money line play that is 32-2 over the last decade. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like Georgia Tech vs. the money line in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with two or more straight wins. This college football ML system is 32-2 since 1998.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Minnesota Twins are 15-2 against the money line with an on base percentage of .393 or better over their last three games this season.

Free Football Selection -3) Kendall from the Left Coast Connection was 3-0 in the NFL yesterday (now 7-1 for the year), with winners on Green Bay (here), Oakland and New England. Kendall believes a tie is better than a loss and is playing Philadelphia and recommends to do so only if number is at +7 or higher. Anything below, he suggests passing.

NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free System, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, available after 5:30 Eastern weekdays.

NFL Free Plays for Sunday

Over the last two days, the college football plays ended being 4-2, for some nice winning action. Two of those wins came from our Super Systems plays and today we have a 79.2 percent system with a solid winning margin. The Top Trend looks at one of the two AFC West matchups and Kendall from the Left Coast Connection will go for a second straight week of NFL winners with a surprising play. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams like Minnesota where the line is +3 to -3- off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. This system is 38-10 79.2 percent with winning margin being 6.3 points per game.

Free Football Trend -2) The Oakland Raiders are 1-9 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2+ seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) Kendall was 4-1 in the NFL last week and sees Green Bay coming away a spread winner.

NEW Feature – We realize not everyone has access to computer all day. We are introducing 3Daily Winners by phone. Call 480.205.9388 and listen to Free system, Top Trend and Free Pick each day, starting today after 11:30 Eastern.