When handicapping an NBA game, a common thing to look at is who does the team play next. Is it a good team, a divisional foe, or one that a team can take very lightly as they aren’t very good?
Also, most cappers like to look at a team’s previous schedule. Have they played tough teams or have then been facing cupcakes recently? Is the team off of a game versus one of the elite squads in the league or were they playing a cellar dweller?
Are there any advantages in looking at different situations based upon the quality of the teams as measured by their season winning percentage? Do teams perform better after directly playing a high quality team? Is there a pattern to the results if a squad that has just played a bad team? (Editor's Note- Picture is cheap ploy to have you read)
We are calling a good team as one who is winning 60% or more of their games. A poor team is one who is winning less than 40% of their contests and an average one is winning straight-up below 60% down to 40% of their games.
Currently, there are an equal number of teams playing 60% or better ball as well as playing below 40%, nine in each category. There are 12 “average” teams with a winning percentage below 60% but no lower than 40%.
Let’s start with something very basic and see how two bad teams playing each other do against the spread and against the lined total. I have friends who swear to taking the Over in these situations. The general belief is that bad teams don’t play very good defense and that pairing two such teams means the Over is a money cow. Let’s see if history backs that premise up.
Basic Two Bad Teams Playing
Over the past three seasons, when two bad teams meet, the visiting team covers 54.6% of the time with the game going Over the total at a 53.5% rate. That’s a start, but let’s drill down a bit.
We quickly find a better betting angle to pay attention to by making the home team an underdog. The road team now covers 59.0% of the time with a surprise in the result of the totals as 63.4% of these games go Under the total. If the home team lost their previous game, the Under jumps to 69.4%.
The Over is predominant when the home team is favored to win the game, a 56.7% OU rate. That jumps to 61.9% if both teams are off of losses. However, if the home fave’s opponent is off of a win, the Under raises its head and is a 60% play.
So, while there are some nice situations to play the Over when two bad teams meet each other, you need to know a few more details to avoid making a wager with a big edge against you.
Basic Two Good Teams Playing
Looking at the other end of the spectrum, how do two good teams do matching up against each other? With no qualifiers, the home team covers 56.2% of these games with the Under winning at a 56.4% rate. If they are a home dog, that ATS rate moves up to 59.3% and the Under ticks up to 62.0%. The Under even goes up to a 66.7% mark if the home dog lost their previous game. The best basic angle I found was if you’re a home dog and both of you won your previous game, the home team getting points covered the point spread 63.4% of the time.
In looking at what quality of opponent our team played in their previous game, there was nothing worth noting on the results in our team’s next game. It didn’t matter if they played a bad or good or average team, the ATS and Over/Under results of the next games were all very close to 50%. In order to find some trends that will make us money, we need to add some qualifiers.
Two Good Teams playing and one just played a Good Team
The first qualifier I am going to add is the quality of the previous opponent. Let’s check results depending upon whether the opponents are good, average, or bad teams and add some other qualifiers as we go along.
A trend that happens a number of times the remainder of this season is when you have a good team, 60%+, who just played another good team and their current game is also against a good team. If this game is away, our team is only covering the spread 41% of the time. If the game is at home, you win against the number 55.5% of the time and the game goes Under at a 57.3% rate. That Under improves to a 69.4% winning situation at home if the team is an underdog. If our good team has just played an average or bad team in their game before facing a good team, there are no fairly basic trends that give us an edge.
Two Bad Teams Playing after playing a Good Team
If we switch our team to a bad team who has just played a good team and their current foe is a fellow bad team, we have a couple of advantageous edges to talk about. If the current game is away, our team off of playing a good team has an ATS record over the past three years of 65-41, 61.3%. The sweet spot in this situation is if this team happens to be a favorite in this road game, you will see an ATS improvement to 71.4%.
As for Over/Under winning trends, the Over is happening between 59 to 59.5% of the time if our team is an away dog or if it is listed as a home favorite in their game against their equally bad team. However, if, after playing a good team, our team is an away favorite, the totals results are the opposite with the Under cashing tickets at a 68.0% clip.
Average Team after playing a Bad Team vs. another Bad Team
For average teams, 40-60%, how about playing a bad team and then playing another bad team? It’s not a great day for you if you are on the road and lined as an underdog. In the past, you have covered the number only 32% of the time versus that bad team after previously playing a bad squad.
Opposite type of previous opponents
What would the results be if one team played a bad team previously and their opponent recently faced a good team? Would the team be more rested after playing a lower quality squad, perhaps not having to put out quite the same level of effort or intensity that they would have against a better unit. Would they have “more in the bank” than their opponent who is off of a contest against a good team?
Would the other team after playing a good team not have played as hard knowing they will lose and they are saving it up for the next squad they face. Or, does playing a good team prepare you better when you face an equally bad team in your next game?
Taking a game between two bad teams, our team’s previous game was against a bad team and their opponent has just played a good team. This is very interesting in that the team off of playing the bad team only covered the spread 28.6% of the time if this game was at home.
After playing a poor squad, combined with playing this game at home, our team was not prepared very well for this game very well. The lack of intensity for our team on the defensive side in this game also shows with the Over happening 64.5% of the time. With the other team off of a match against a good team, they apparently are the sharper team, at least for this game.
Playing a bad team can put another team into exhibiting bad habits, especially if they aren’t a good team to begin with. And just the opposite is true when a bad team plays a good one. They have to be at the top of their game to have a shot at winning. Playing at that higher level can carry over to the next game.
SUMMARY
Obviously there is an effect on a team depending upon what type of team they just played even in just the few cases we looked at. Here is a short cheat sheet to help in handicapping the NBA.
Two bad teams playing each other:
Play on the Visitor
Play Over if the home team is favored
Play Under if the home team is a dog
Two good teams playing each other:
Play on the home team, especially if a dog
Play the Under
Good vs. Good after playing a Good:
If home, look at playing Under, especially if dog
If away, play on home team
Bad vs. Bad after playing a Good:
Play on road team, especially if favorite
Avg Team after playing a Bad vs. Bad:
Play against Avg. Team if road dog
Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority wrote this NBA article.
Is anyone else getting tired of seeing our Olympic hero Michael Phelps being crucified by the mainstream media?
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