Saturday Specials

The Rockies scored two runs in the bottom of the eighth to blow our system play and give us a 1-2 Friday, as we look to rebound. A number of top line pitchers are scheduled to throw today and two of them have unreal records as favorites and are listed as Top Trends. Our Best System is a winner 84.1 percent of the time and Ron thinks he has another Free Winner on tap. Good Luck

3Daily Winners is No.7 in units won in MLB at Cappers Watchdog the last week.

What I saw yesterday – Kuroda of the Dodgers had nothing last night against the D-Backs, throwing 66 pitches in less than two innings. The rest of the bullpen was not much better. I just tire of watching Matt Kemp, he just doesn’t play hard. For a guy who should be approaching the prime of his career, getting benched by your manager doesn’t show a willingness to help your team.

It was just one game, but Arizona went the other way with pitches (instead of trying to pull everything like usual) and was aggressive on the base paths. I have no idea if Kirk Gibson is a good manager, but I expect he will push the Snakes to be more assertive and sit those who are not.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like Detroit, averaging 0.9 or less long balls per game on the season, after a win by six runs or more. Dating back to when the movie “Good Will Hunting” was hit, this system is 53-10.

Free Baseball Trends -2) Ubaldo Jimenez and the Rockies are 14-0 as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons and Jon Lester and Boston are 17-0 as a home favorite of -200 or more in his career.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron of the LLC continues to shine with 28-8 MLB record and is taking the Red Sox to pulverize the O’s on the run line.

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Start of great holiday weekend

Having a vast number of duties to attend to, been a little so on the upkeep but we are still 90-52 in last 142 plays right here at 3Daily Winners. Ron of the Left Coast Connection is still clicking away winners and offers his best play for Free. We have a perfect trend on an AL visitor and the Best System is a totals play at 85 percent! Good Luck

Over the last 10 days, 3Daily Winners is #2 in MLB units at Cappers Monitor.

What I thought the last few days – It is a delight to have my daughter home. She’s a big Dodgers fan (don’t ask why) and we are going the next two nights.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Under on road teams like the Giants against the total when they average less than a home run per game, against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR’s a start, with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70 percent. Got that, what you need to know is this totals system is 34-6, 85 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 10-0 after three straight games with two or more stolen bases over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron of the LLC continues to shine on 25-8 MLB run and has the Tigers to maul the Mariners.

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MLB Series Wagering- Marlins at Braves

The general consensus from Florida players was the three game series in Puerto Rico was “different”, however at least it was successful, as they captured two of three against the New York Mets. The Marlins are glad to be back in the lower 48, even if it means taking on the team with the best home record in baseball.

Florida (-6 units) is in fourth place in the National League East with 37-41 record and a trifle rudderless with interim manager Edwin Rodriguez calling the shots, but that is life under owner Jeffrey Loria, who expects prime kobe beef steak, as long as if doesn’t cost much.

Manager Bobby Cox farewell tour is going swimmingly, with Atlanta (46-33, +8.7) atop the division. The Braves offensively are playing a brand of baseball that is a sum of parts rather than individual components. Atlanta’s team batting average is eighth in the National League at .259 and this is a club sorely lacking in power, ranking 12th in home runs (61) and 13th in total bases. Yet, they are third in total runs scored in the senior circuit and are the best in on-base percentage at .347. The larger reason for this higher ranking is the patience at the dish with 342 walks, compared to league average of 264, which are 78 more chances to score without ever putting the ball in play.

While a great deal of focus has been rightly shone on Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez, with his brilliant season to date, tonight’s pitcher for the Fish, Josh Johnson (8-3, 1.83 ERA), has allowed six earned runs in his last nine starts, the same as Jimenez. Johnson and Florida are 31-14 against division opponents, which includes 7-4 vs. Atlanta. The 6’7 right-hander is 4-2 with 2.91 ERA against the Braves has permitted a .545 on-base slugging percentage this season, the lowest of any pitcher in the majors.

Kris Medlen (5-1, 3.15) started the season in the bullpen, but the 24-year old has eight quality starts in nine appearances since joining the rotation on May 8. Medlen and the Bravos are +106 home underdogs, which is noteworthy with Atlanta 28-9 (+15.2 units) at home. The Braves this season are 23-9 playing against a team with a losing record, but are 7-15 facing a pitcher who allows a home run or less every other start. Florida’s Johnson is 17-4 vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game (Marlins Record) and is 23-8 since the beginning of last year, the third best record in the big leagues.

Game 1 Edge: Florida

Game 2 in the series is a regional FOX telecast and it’s the second of a 10-game road trip for Florida. While the Braves rookie right fielder Jason Heyward has garnered a great deal of attention, the Marlins might end having the NL rookie of the year. First baseman Gaby Sanchez leads all rookies in batting average, base hits, doubles and on-base percentage. When asked about his lack of notoriety Sanchez responded, "I don't mind at all, I'd rather be under the radar and coast through."

One player not coasting is Anibal Sanchez (7-4, 3.18) for Florida. Sanchez has 10 quality starts from the total of 15 he’s been given the ball and the team is 4-1 when he has five days rest.

Atlanta counters with Tommy Hanson (7-5, 4.50) who’s hit the wall. His last two starts read like this – 7 1/3 innings, 21 hits, 14 earned runs permitted, for 17.18 ERA. (Yikes) Even after being knocked around, Hanson and his teammates are 9-3 in his last dozen starts and are 17-3 at Turner Field coming into this series.

The Braves are 36-15 in the second game of a series and the Marlins are 4-9 most recently.

Game 2 Edge: Atlanta

The series finale pits Ricky Nolasco (7-6, 4.84) against veteran Tim Hudson (8-3, 2.37). The Atlanta right-hander has been exceptional all season long, conceding more than three runs once in his 16 trips to the slab. The Braves began this series 40-17 as favorites. The Marlins are drowning in the role of underdog, 11-22 as of Friday and they hope Nolasco’s bugaboo doesn’t arise again. The five year veteran has a better than 4-1 strikeout to walk ratio in 2010, but he’s been leaving too many pitches in the zone and has been taken deep 19 times already this season. A 5:05 local start time should help pitchers with more shadows.

Game 3 Edge: Braves

This is the Marlins first trip into Atlanta this season and they are 9-9 the past two years and 19-20 overall against the Braves since 2008. Florida would seem to have a legitimate opportunity to win this series because they can match Atlanta’s starting pitching. Nonetheless, baseball is a nine inning contest and with how well the Bravos are playing at home and having decided edge in the bullpen (Marlins pen ERA is 4.65 vs. Braves 3.37), a series wager on manager Cox’s club appears prudent.

Sports books series odds: Florida +140, Atlanta -1703

3Daily Winners Pick: Atlanta

July’s Good and Bad Baseball Pitcher’s

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

Firecrackers and the MLB All-Star game signal the month of July. It also signifies the start of the 2nd half of the MLB campaign. The key to each and every team’s fortune lies on the pitching staff. Can they sustain or will they fold like a deck of cards? Stay tuned. What we do know is certain pitchers love hurling this time of the season while others tend to get lit up like a roman candle.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of July. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in July team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each July over the last three years. I’ll be back next month with August’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Burnett, A.J. [9-2]
If there is one pitcher in baseball glad to see the calendar change it is Burnett (6-7, 5.25 ERA). For the month of June he was 0-5, with gargantuan 11.34 ERA. If you caught any of his pitched games, this is a hurler really struggling mentally. Of the 35 hits he allowed last month, 11 of them went over the wall. Burnett and the Yankees hope he turns around this month around quickly.

Cook, Aaron [12-6]
The Colorado pitcher is finding his groove after a rocky start (intentional play on words), lowering his ERA to 4.69. Cook (2-5) pitches to contact and his fastball has had more sink in the last several starts and if the Rockies are going to make run at NL West crown, they will need Cook to be cookin’.

De La Rosa, Jorge [11-5]
De La Rosa has been out since April 25 with torn tendon band in the middle finger of his throwing hand. He’s at Triple-A Colorado Springs working to get to big club.

Hamels, Cole [12-4]
He’s still only 26-years old, but the lefthander just hasn’t risen to the same level of excellence he achieved during the 2008 postseason. His 54-40 career record shows too many cement-mixer curve balls and change-ups left up in the zone. The Phillies bats have been quieter this season and Hamels (4.08) has to be better than 6-6 this season.

Haren, Dan [12-4]
Throwing for Arizona is not a comfortable position for starting pitcher. As a starter you fill like you have to throw a complete game since they have combustible bullpen. This has caused Haren (7-6, 4.56) to attempt to be too fine and he touched for 19 home runs and .282 batting average compared to career number of .253. Interesting to follow if he can retain July’s previous good fortune.

Johnson, Josh [8-2]
Johnson (8-3, 1.83) hasn’t given up three earned runs in a game since May 8, which covers nine starts. At 6’7, 250-pounds, he’s imposing figure and his mid-to-high 90’s heat jumps late, causing bad swings and misses. With the way the Marlins ace is throwing, he could be in for special month.

Lackey, John [14-3]
Lackey is a Texas native and heats up like the weather when it comes to wins and losses. He’s no longer the hard thrower that can go thru a line-up more than twice without making adjustments on the run. His 9-3 record is mixed with good fortune as his 4.46 ERA is run of the mill. In Lackey’s last seven starts, Boston has averaged 8.1 runs per game.

Lester, Jon [10-1]
The left-hander continues to quietly keep rising in the elite ranks of pitchers in baseball. His 51-19 career mark is among the best since 2006 and this season he been even more impressive with 9-3 record and 2.86 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .205 against him.

Lowe, Derek [10-5]
At 37, Lowe (9-6. 4.53) is no longer the pitcher worms used to fear, with opponents incessantly beating the ball into the ground for outs. The vast majority of outs Lowe still induces are still ground balls, but his command has been a little iffier in 2010, presently heading towards a career high in free passes. If he finds the groove, he and Atlanta should have another strong month.

Oswalt, Roy [10-2]
Oswalt (3.55) is heading towards his first losing season with 5-10 record playing for an inferior Houston club. Trade rumors abound for the 32-year pitcher, who would appreciate a change of scenery to recharge the competitive juices. If a team is interested in Oswalt, it should make a move now based on July figures.

Saunders, Joe [9-3]
Manager Mike Scioscia is known for his great patience in understanding the season is 162 games long and players are going to have ups and downs. Joe Saunders (6-8, 4.88) has been testing Scioscia’s resolve with a rollercoaster campaign. Saunders has been far more effective on the road (3.35 ERA vs. 6.18 at the Big A) and if he straightens out that part of game and pitches inside to RH hitters, he should have typical July.

Vazquez, Javier [10-5]
After a VERY choppy beginning, Vazquez (6-6, 5.16) is becoming the type of hurler GM Brian Cashman was hoping for. Vazquez has 3.78 ERA in last 10 starts and has better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Duke, Zach [2-9]
It’s becoming more a mystery why Duke (3-8, 5.49) stays in the Pittsburgh rotation. Yes, the Pirates are brutal, but do you really need a starter that opposing batters are slugging .322 against? This Duke is a dog. (As in “Here Duke”)

Greinke, Zack [2-8]
Last year’s Cy Young winner has had a rough go of it this season, with a combination of Kansas City bullpen failings and Greinke (3-8, 3.72) trying to do too much. He’s been sharper of late and might improve on this month’s historical record with a little support.

Harden, Rich [4-9]
On the DL with gluteal strain and is scheduled for a few bullpen sessions to start the month.

Parra, Manny [3-7]
Strictly a back of the rotation guy, Parra (2-5, 4.12) was returned to the Milwaukee rotation after they had nowhere else to turn to. His 3.98 ERA as starter isn’t all that bad, however this southpaw is being crushed by lefty hitters, conceding .380 BA.

Wellemeyer, Todd [4-8]
The Giants fifth starter has been on the DL since June 11 and according to team reports is expected to return to club in mid-July.


Doug Upstone of 3Daily Winners contributed to this article.

Kansas City favored to win? You Bet

In studying the Wednesday baseball board, one pitching matchup stands out more than the rest this evening, at least by reputation if not 2010 results. Jake Peavy (7-5, 4.71 ERA) of the White Sox heads to the Kauffman Stadium mound to take on last year’s Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke (3-8, 3.72). Neither pitcher has enjoyed the kind of success they would have expected to this point of the season, however several signs point to each having a big second half.

Peavy is also a Cy Young winner, having earned that honor in 2007 at San Diego. In his first full season with Chicago in the American League, Peavy’s had a difficult adjustment after pitching in Death Valley (Petco Park) and moving to U.S. Cellular Field. The right-hander really struggled to start the year with 5.90 ERA in his first dozen starts (4-5), but has caught fire recently. In his last three outings (coincidently against National League teams), Peavy has been domineering with 0.78 ERA, permitting 12 hits in 23 innings.

Greinke also has found trouble this season. The 26-year old righty started the year throwing well enough to win, but the bullpen was blowing leads or tied games and Grenike didn’t earn his first win until May 13, and started to press from that point forward. As he admittedly tried to throw a perfect pitch on each toss, he made more mistakes, not less and strikeouts went down and base hits allowed went up.

After being rocked for nine hits and six runs in only five innings in a 7-3 loss at Minnesota, a 1-8 Greinke reevaluated his situation. With Kansas City again going nowhere in the standings with 33-45 record, Greinke decided to relax and just pitch to his ability and not create unreal expectations for him or the team. In his last three trips to the rubber, he has 2.63 ERA, striking out 23 while walking just two during that stretch.

“He’s put together three pretty good starts here in a row,” manager Ned Yost said after Greinke gave up two runs and seven hits over eight innings in recent 4-2 win over St. Louis. “He’s gaining velocity on his fastball. His command’s been a lot better. He’s really pitching terrific.”

Oddsmakers have the Royals favored for the just the 14th time this season (5-8, -5.5 units) at -115 over Chicago and not because K.C. is 4-12 with Grienke as starter.

In theory, Kansas City should be a better club. They are second in the American League in hitting with a .282 team batting average. Where the Royals falter is from a power outage, Kansas City needs too many base knocks to score, being 12th in home runs in the AL (53), which leads to pedestrian mark of ninth in runs scored in.

Nonetheless, we find a MLB system that overlooks the Royals’ shortcomings and makes them a likeable favorite.

Play On home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher, a hot hitting team, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games, against opponent with a tough starting pitcher, whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts.

This baseball situation has come in 77.5 percent of the time the past five years at 62-18. This MLB system has been dynamic 6-0 this year and average run differential is 2.5 per contest. Yes it is true the Pale Hose have been playing outstanding baseball (12-2), but they are 6-20 in road games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last five outings. Plus, the Royals offense doesn’t stay sour for long with 9-3 mark after scoring three runs or less in consecutive contests this season.

Take a good hard look at K.C; it might be a masterpiece, just like the barbeque sauce.

Late Tuesday Plays

With Sunday’s winning record, we moved to 89-50 in plays here at 3Daily Winners. Tonight we have a Best System at 82.4 percent. Our Top Trend is nearly perfect and Ron of the LCC is hotter than a mouthful of jalapeño peppers and has his Free Play. We are in 7th place the last 10 days in units won in MLB at the Cappers Monitor. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – Just how bad the Cubs stink that they lose at home to Pittsburgh who almost never wins on the road.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like the Braves, averaging 0.9 or less home runs a game on the season, after a win by four runs or more. This winning system is 98-21 the previous 13 seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Cincinnati is 13-1 with a hot bullpen who’s WHIP is under 1.000 the last five games this season, winning by 2.4 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron of the LLC continues to sizzle with on 18-5 run and both White Sox to cover against Kansas City.

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What we learned from MLB Interleague Play

As per usual, the American League once again showed their superiority over their union partners from the National League in interleague play with a 134-118 edge. This marks the seventh straight time the junior circuit has been victorious, however for those thirsting for the 16-team league to finally win this event, this year was the closest the National League has been since this rein began in 2004. (AL won that year 126-125)

One of the humorous aspects each year is the managers that end up with a tougher draw, whine like Oksana Grigorieva (Mel Gibson’s soon to be ex) about what misfortune they have encountered.

Joe Torre was lightly complaining his team had to face the Angels six times, plus the Yankees, Red Sox and Detroit, which led to 4-11 record this year. Torre might have a slight argument, since his team faced better clubs than either San Francisco or San Diego, who are ahead of them in the standings. Nonetheless, the Dodgers always play terrible against AL, thus this isn’t news and besides, who had the Padres in first place on July 1 in the NL West this season unless they were taking on Triple-A teams.

Over the course of a 162-game slate, there is going to be ups and downs and if a team is in one situation or the other, that more than anything will affect how they play and more likely determine their outcome.

The biggest benefactor of the interleague play was the Chicago White Sox, who single-handily accounted for 75 percent of the difference in the two leagues with their 15-3 record. The White Sox did have any easier draw, having to play Florida, Pittsburgh, Washington and taking on their sinking cross-town rivals the Cubs, didn’t hurt either. However, manager Ozzie Guillen’s club also swept first place Atlanta on the south side during their 11-game win streak and is right back in contention in the AL Central race with Minnesota and Detroit.

Texas and Boston were two other teams that improved their status whipping their National League counterparts. The Rangers contingent of opponents might already be out of the pennant chase, yet you have to tip your cap for franchise best 8-1 road trip, that included stops in Milwaukee, Florida and Houston. Texas returned home and swept Pittsburgh, to make win streak 11 and they start series with Los Angeles on 16-2 roll, 4.5 games ahead of the Angels.

The Red Sox were 13-5 in their interleague adventure and faced three solid clubs from the NL West and went toe to toe six times with the two-time National League champion Phillies. Their success moved them up to second place in the AL East standings, surpassing Tampa Bay and closing in on the Yankees.

With the Dodgers swimming into the interleague black hole with teams like Washington (5-13 interleague play), Pittsburgh (2-13) and Houston (3-12), somebody from the NL had to emerge victorious.

The biggest winner was the New York Mets at 13-5. Their 6-0 record over Baltimore and Cleveland could hardly be described as taxing, yet for a team that is 9-20 on the road everywhere else, that six-pack of visiting triumphs sure came in handy. The Metropolitans again had to face the Yankees six times and manager Jerry Manuel didn’t whine once, keeping his lips closed tight also facing division contenders like the Tigers and Twins.

Of the National Leaguer’s that were 9-6, division leader San Diego was most impressive with 4-2 road mark.

One final note, it would be a complete oversight not to mention the Pirates. Pittsburgh now holds the record for baseball futility with 17 consecutive losing seasons since Barry Bonds left town in 1992 as a free agent for San Francisco. Barring an unprecedented comeback, No. 18 just needs 32 more losses in the final 86 games. Their aforementioned pitiful interleague record of 2-13, saw them outscored by 2.8 runs per game, quite an accomplishment.

Baseball Betting Choice – The Rook or the Vet

Stephen Strasburg’s rookie debut has caused quite a stir in baseball, showcasing his incredible ability. Tim Hudson (7-3, 2.54 ERA) is 13 years older than his mound opponent on Monday night and could put his right arm around the youngster and share his wisdom, having already traveled down this road. Instead, he will try and out-duel the younger phenom.

Strasburg’s (2-1, 1.78) highly anticipated professional campaign has been marked by a number of first’s, the last being his first loss in the Major Leagues, a 1-0 defeat to Kansas City. Though he permitted a season-high nine base hits in his six innings of work, he did strike out nine Royals batters, walking none for the third time in four starts. He also broke a record that has stood since 1955, fanning 41 hitters in his first four initial starts.

“I know there’s going to be times when it’s going to be like this in the future,” Strasburg said. “And there’s going to be times when I’m not pitching well, and they’ll just go out there and score a ton of runs and save me. It’s baseball.”

Lost in all the excitement of Strasburg becoming a member of Washington (33-43), is their recent futility. The Nationals are 3-13 since the right-hander arrived in D.C. and they swept Pittsburgh June 8-10. The most recent three losses were a real embarrassment even for the Nats, as they lost all three games to regional rival Baltimore. That was just the Orioles second sweep of the season and their first ever over Washington since they arrived in the area in 2005.
Hudson is all the way back for last year’s surgery pitching for Atlanta (44-32), which has the best home record in the big leagues at 26-8. Hudson has sparkled at Turner Field with 4-1 record and 1.87 ERA, allowing only 23 hits in 33 1/3 innings. The right-hander has enjoyed any matchup with Washington, sporting an 8-1 record and minuscule 1.62 ERA. In his career, Hudson is 58-22 in home games in the first half of the season. (Team's Record)

Oddsmakers have the Braves as -115 money line favorites, with total Ov.6.5. Atlanta enters this series opener 14-3 at home with a money line of -100 to -150 and is 9-2 vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start.

Washington will try and avoid the usual doldrums that affect them, as they are 30-62 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 since 2008 and 23-10 UNDER in the same role since last season.

This NL East matchup is on ESPN2 at 7:10 Eastern and surprisingly these teams have split the last 18 contests in Atlanta.

A story that rings the bell

Most nights I end up listening to MLB.tv for various games in different markets for a period of time. Often these are games involving wagers I made or I just like to hear how different announcers sound in different markets, listening for possibly something I can write about.

Last night in Oakland, Pittsburgh and the A’s were wearing their late 1970’s uniforms, which are quite a sight if you haven’t seen them.

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?tcid=mm_mlb_vid

(Find the Oakland dominates behind Cahill and Barton video 6-26)

Anyways, they bring back announcer Monte Moore who started with A’s in Kansas City back in 1962 and was with them in the glory days of the 1970’s and was with the Athletics more or less until 1992.

Back in the 70’s, he would do pregame interviews and did one with reliever Darryl Knowles. He had asked Knowles about pitching the night before and Knowles had said he was throwing the ball fine until he gave up a “dinger”. Moore asked what he meant by that word and Knowles said “Dinger, you know a home run.”

This led to Moore coming up with a very popular call to Oakland fans, "There She Goes..." and "Ringer Dinger" home run call and he had a copper bell he would ring from someone who had given it to him.

Moore as to turns out brought back the very same bell he had retired 18 years ago and was doing an inning Saturday night calling the game and talking about yesteryear.

As luck would certainly have it, Moore was talking about the bell when the A’s Kurt Suzuki took a Pirate pitcher deep and if you listen and watch the video, you can here Moore talking about and ringing the bell.

After that they were all laughing and having a great time in the broadcast booth talking about what just happened. Very entertaining and pretty cool moment.

Sunday's Material

Those pesky Padres keep coming up with ways to win, which caused me a losing day and fell to 87-49. This Sunday we’ll look to bring it back around starting with a Top Trend from the I-70 series. Ron goes after another winner in the Lone Star state and one home favorite is in an 84.8 percent system. Good Luck

What I saw and heard yesterday – I’m looking a video from yesterday in MLB, if I can’t find, I’ll just relate the story later today.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites like Oakland with a money line of -175 to -250, averaging 0.9 or less home runs game on the season, after a win by four runs or more. In the past five years this system is 56-10, 84.8 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Kansas City is 3-15 with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron was 2-1 yesterday giving him 11-4 record of late and is riding the Rangers to take the Texas tussle.

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