Championship Saturday

Our last post was another 2-1 day and we believe we have the right stuff to make today even better. We’ll start with an 85.3 percent system on the gridiron that is perfect this season. That is followed by a perfect trend in the ACC title game and finally Steve of the Left Coast Connection has it going on and releases his Best Bet today. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today – I’m caught in one of those rare situations where I want to bet one team but I really like the other team. When I say like, I mean I want them to win. This doesn’t happen often for me, but it does occur. I actually like the 11-0 Cincinnati team. I like the way they play, I like their coach and I would like to see them go unbeaten. That aside, I have the suspicion they may have peaked, especially on defense and I believe an angry Pittsburgh team beats them. I’ll be rooting for the Bearcats and don’t want money to take away from my enjoyment of watching the game and pulling me in opposite directions.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON Home favorites of 21.5 or more points like Louisiana Tech, who are average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 yards per play) against a team with a terrible defense (6.2 or higher YPP), in conference games. This system checks in at 29-5 ATS, 85.3 percent, with 3-0 mark this season.

Free Football Trend-2) Georgia Tech is 8-0 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 310 or fewer yards a game over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Steve’s hot streak continues and he is making a big play on Rutgers today.

Florida and Alabama for SEC Title

As soon as the first BCS ratings were announced, it was a foregone conclusion these two SEC teams would meet again for what is essentially a semi-final game for the national championship. This is the second year in a row these teams will meet sporting a perfect records, however Alabama (12-0, 7-4 ATS) has closed the gap, now 5.5-point underdogs compared to +10 a season ago. The Crimson Tide have tailback Mark Ingram running behind five behemoths.

Quarterback Greg McElroy has rectified mid-season slump and again is on target to Julio Jones and other pass-catchers. The defense is led by nose tackle Terrence Cody and has a number of large bodies and they have been ranked with Florida all season among the top three defenses in college football. Bama is 13-5 ATS after eight or more consecutive straight up wins.

Just how good has the Florida (12-0, 6-5 ATS) football program been the last several of years? This senior class is 47-6, the best ever in the long history of the SEC and they are impressive 31-17-2 ATS, often facing spreads bigger than the Mt. Cody. Besides the numbers, this Florida team wants to leave an indelible mark, like the basketball team did a few years back.

The Gators are trying to be back-to-back champions and be first Florida squad to claim a national championship being unbeaten. Tim Tebow (that's him in the picture in case you weren't sure) has put up numbers and accomplished feats that arguably make him the greatest college football player of all-time. The offense lacked the playmakers of a year ago but offensive line has pulled them through. The defense covered up what rough patches the offense suffered. The Gators are 9-2 ATS away from Gainesville after two or more consecutive straight up wins.

This is a de facto BCS Final Four encounter. Florida has the edge because they have Tebow and shined on this stage every time they have played under Urban Meyer. Pick the style of play, the Gators eat it up. Teams with winning records, Florida is 11-2 ATS. You play great defense and hold teams to 17 or fewer points, the Gators are 6-0 ATS. What about teams with high scoring offenses that total 31 or more points a game, 8-1 ATS the last three years. Did we mention Tin Tebow?

Job one of Alabama’s tremendous defense; take away the Florida dive play, that means you Mr. Cody. If LB Rolando McClain is making tackles within four yards of line of scrimmage, the Crimson Tide defense is doing its job. The Florida passing tends to run in streaks during games, don’t let Tebow get comfortable throwing the ball. Coach Nick Saban’s offensive line had played outstanding until last week in Auburn. They have to be great against fabulous Florida defense and they got early Christmas present, not having to deal with DE Carlos Dunlap (suspended for drunk driving charges). Mark Ingram can’t run like he did last week and QB Greg McElroy cannot crumble in the moment for a team that is 7-0 ATS away from home vs. excellent passing defenses allowing 5.25 or less passing yards per attempt.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Gators as favorites; however from our friends at Playbook.com, we find No.1 teams are 2-9 and 1-10 ATS off a win by 25 or more points. The total has been steady at 41 and Florida is 7-1 UNDER after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games and Alabama is 11-2 UNDER after five or more consecutive straight up wins over the last two seasons.

This has the making of classic defensive struggle and Florida is 6-4 and 5-4-1 ATS since 1992.

3DW Line – Florida by 2

Longhorns and Yellow Jackets favored

The final two spots for the BCS will be locked up on Saturday night, with the Big 12 and ACC championships. Texas is a solid favorite and is predicted to be in BCS title game with a victory. The ACC game for all the marbles has a different flavor, as both teams are off disappointing losses to non-conference rivals and are in a rematch of earlier game. A double dip to close out Championship Saturday. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Nebraska vs Texas (-14.5, 47) 8:00E ABC

It wasn’t an easy trek, but Nebraska accomplished one of their goals this season, winning the Big 12 North. The next goal is more challenging aspiration, knocking off Texas for the conference crown. This is the Cornhuskers fifth appearance in the Big 12 championship and the third time they will face Texas. Nebraska (9-3, 7-5 ATS) has to this point stayed with a familiar script, using a conservative offense, a stingy defense and special teams play that consistently wins the field position battle. Only Texas Tech and lucky Colorado has managed to score more than 17 points against the Blackshirts, with Ndamukong Suh, a finalist for the Lombardi Award, leading the assault. The offense needs RB Roy Helu gaining yardage behind the offensive line, giving inaccordant quarterback Zac Lee a chance to complete passes. Nebraska is 25-10 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 62 percent or better.

After missing out on BCS title game a year ago, Texas (12-0, 5-6-1 ATS) was expected to come in this season and have Texas-sized chip on their shoulder. One aspect overlooked is every year is divergent. Different players are starters along with backups and attitudes change for individuals still in college. The Longhorns had more than their share of slow starts and always came on to put way opponent in the last 30-45 minutes of game action. Since the close 16-13 victory over Oklahoma, the Texas players have played with greater purpose and man-handled everyone on the schedule. It’s evident the Longhorns are peaking but will face a determined Nebraska club that is has nothing to lose. Texas is 22-5 ATS when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play.

The Texas defense was sliced and diced by Texas A&M last week for 532 yards, but Nebraska lacks that kind of firepower to match those figures. Do expect Lee of the Cornhuskers to throw the ball, especially early, since the Longhorns have allowed 279.3 yards passing in last three contests. Nebraska has covered seven of last 10 against teams with winning records.

Against teams from BCS conferences, Nebraska has scored a whopping 18.3 points per game this season. That means a quick start for focused Mack Brown team has TV viewers heading over to ACC contest. This is attitude game for Longhorns, beat Huskers decidedly and folks start believing they can defeat SEC champion. Let Nebraska hang around playing great defense and people will ask what is wrong with TCU not being in Pasadena for last game of the season. The Horns are 13-4 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards.

Favorites in the Big 12 title games are 8-4-1 ATS.

3DW Line – Texas by 15

Clemson vs Georgia Tech (Pick) 8:00E ESPN

It’s a rematch from Sept.10 for the ACC championship. In that contest, Georgia Tech jumped out to a 24-0 lead over Clemson, with RB Anthony Allen scoring on an 82-yard run and Jerrard Tarrant taking a punt back 85 yards. The Tigers weathered the storm and settled in and scored the game’s next 27 points to take the lead. The Yellow Jackets (10-2, 7-4-1 ATS) reestablished their option offense and put together two drives that resulted in field goals, including the winner with under a minute to escape 30-27. Georgia Tech is 5-1 and 3-3 ATS vs. Clemson last six meetings.

Georgia Tech’s option offense had stung opponents for 39 points per game during its eight game winning streak before losing to rival Georgia. One edge they have enjoyed is teams had only one week to prepare for unique offense. Though Clemson will have the same time frame having played South Carolina last week, they’ve had enough time to breakdown tape of their earlier matchup. Coach Paul Johnson, whose 19-6 (15-7 ATS) mark through two seasons is the best in Tech history, has shown his offense can work playing against better competition. The Yellow Jackets are perfect 8-0 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 310 or less yards a game over the last two seasons.

Clemson (8-4, 7-4 ATS) has finally broken thru, winning seven of eight contests and playing like a team which finally exceeded expectations. Coach Dabo Swinney was finally able to sell the upperclassmen on the idea of being accountable for actions. Seniors like C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford have been among the leaders that by example both verbally and by actions. One noticeable difference also has been the defense. Clemson’s had numerous players with all-ACC ability, but this group is No. 1 in total defense in the league and 14th nationally. The Tigers are 2-11 ATS when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards.

Clemson should have learned something from Georgia’s win, pound away at Yellow Jackets front seven. The Tigers have three running backs each with a different style, make it work and score touchdowns. If Clemson doesn’t run effectively and is forced to pass, they drop to 2-8 ATS after scoring less than 20 points in last game.

Interesting to note in common opponents Clemson is 4-0 (3-1 ATS) winning by almost 17 points a game, while Georgia Tech is 3-1 (2-2 ATS) with a winning margin of 4.2 PPG.

3DW Line – Georgia Tech by 1

Great start to college football Saturday

By game time on Saturday, two more conference tiles will have been decided over the last couple of games and now it’s time to fill the last five spots, which includes four specific BCS bowl slots. Starting in Pittsburgh, the home of the defending professional football and hockey champions and the Pirates (keeps things in balance), the Big East championship game will be played. Over in Greenville, NC, where they average 50 inches of rain a year, the Conference USA crown will be determined, with the winner advancing to the Liberty Bowl. Let the fun begin.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 12:00E ABC

The Bearcats (6-5 ATS) are perfect 11-0 heading into what is Big East championship contest. Coach Brian Kelly has done a terrific job of keeping all the excitement in perspective, saying “…the program has conceivably has arrived, but it is not built”. Tony Pike is back as the starting quarterback; however Kelly has deftly changed the offense from a passing team, to one that has compiled 180 yards or more rushing in the in four of the last five games. This strategy has worked well in thinking ahead to the potential of inclement weather and given opposing defenses something else to worry about. The defense has worn down as the season progressed, especially against the run, being gouged for over 200 yards in the last two of last three games which will be a focal point Pittsburgh will certainly attack. Cincy is 27-9 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game.

Pittsburgh (9-2, 6-3-1 ATS) is off confidence deflating loss at West Virginia 19-16 and now like many of the teams playing this weekend for championships, can focus on the task at hand. Coach Dave Wannstedt has taken a lot of grief as head coach in several stops; nevertheless he is to be commended for this job. He built the program his way, defense first and a pro-style offensive attack. He not only was able to get the right players to fit his program, but worked with players that improved each season like QB Bill Stull. He wasn’t afraid to take a chance on dynamic RB Dion Lewis, considered too small by others. The Panthers are 12-5-1 ATS in last 17 lined contests.

Bookmaker.com has seen Pittsburgh go from opening as 1.5-point favorites to two-point underdogs. In order to prove bettors wrong the Panthers must be the more physical team, control the clock with run game and have defensive front pressure Pike. Pittsburgh’s 43 sacks was the best in college football, while Cincinnati has given up nine, the nation's third-fewest. Wanny’s crew really gave a non-effort in loss to West Virginia last week and is 5-1 ATS off a spread loss.

Pittsburgh’s secondary is not as good as its numbers (45th) which provides coach Kelly an opportunity to dissect it, while looking thru companies in South Bend that make business cards. If the offensive line holds up, Pike should carve Pitt up like a surgeon. Pike is the better quarterback in this BCS battle. Defensively, the Cats have to find ways to get off the field, since they lose in slug-fest. Cincy is 28-11-1 ATS as visitors against teams with winning home records.

This series is known as the River City Rivalry and Pittsburgh is 7-1 and 4-1 ATS and the total of this Big East bash is 58.

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 4.5

Houston at East Carolina – 12:00E ESPN2

It took all season, but two of the teams that were thought to be in the Conference USA championship game in early October have emerged as division champions. East Carolina held off Southern Mississippi 25-20 and now has a chance to be back-to-back champs. The Pirates (8-4, 5-6 ATS) advanced to the championship contest based on many of the same things that helped them all season. Sixth-year senior quarterback Patrick Pinkney led the way throwing for 269 yards and the defensive line made play after play, allowing East Carolina survive. East Carolina will be the host for this title tilt, however they are only .500 against the spread in last 52 home games.

Houston (10-2, 8-3 ATS) was supposed to play in this game a season ago, but was derailed by Rice. The Cougars made sure that didn’t happen two years in a row by obliterating the Owls 73-14 and moving on to first championship conflict. Quarterback Case Keenum will bring the nation’s top passing game into Greenville, averaging over 440 yards thru the air, with its dizzying array of pass patterns and movement. Keenum is a finalist for the Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award and has terrific receivers to throw to. The Cougars are consistent offensively, scoring in 45 of 48 quarters this season, which is the highest average in college football at 93.7 percent. Houston is only 10-22 ATS in road games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game.

East Carolina pulls the upset as 2.5-point dogs if Pinkney throws accurately and RB Dominique Lindsay runs wild. Both are possibilities as Houston allowed 445 yards per game (those same teams averaged 370 YPG) and was 113th in run defense. The best way to beat Houston is a cliché, but it’s true, keep the offense on the sidelines. The Pirates can steal a win since they are 13-2 ATS when they score 28 or more points.

ECU is lucky to be here. Southern Miss fumbled and lost the ball at the one going in for touchdown and had blocked extra point returned for two points. Houston has to block a very good defensive line to give Keenum time to throw. This offense is unstoppable if pass patterns are given time to develop (ask losers). On defense, the Cougars will allow a ton of yards, but need to make a few stops or force turnovers. Houston historically has a vast collection of bad angles; nonetheless they are 8-3 ATS THIS season.

Here are numbers to chew on about this C-USA battle. Houston is 2-9 ATS in road games when they allow 28 or more points, while East Carolina is 0-6 ATS when they concede 28 or more points. The road team has won four of last five meetings and covered the spread each time. Additionally, in head to head matchups, Houston won by 21 points and East Carolina by 14.2.

3DW Line – Houston by 1

Chippewas Big Favorite in MAC Title Tilt

All season long, Central Michigan (10-2, 9-2 ATS) has gone about their business in a diligent manner. Picked to win the Mid-American Conference for the third time in four years, often other teams would have fallen under the weight of expectations, not this bunch. The Chippewas were 8-0 and 6-2 ATS in conference action and upset Michigan State and gave Arizona a competitive game, covering the spread at Tucson in the season opener. All along this journey, Dan LeFevour has proven to a special college quarterback and is now MAC’s all-time leader in passing yards, breaking quarterback Byron Leftwich’s record and is now third all-time on the NCAA yardage list. Central Michigan’s return to prominence after 8-5 season coincided with defense coming together. The Chippewas are 18-10-1 against the spread as conference favorites the last five seasons.

Ohio U. tumbled Temple from the ranks of the unbeaten in the MAC and captured the East Division title 35-17, ending the Owls nine-game winning streak. Quarterback Theo Scott threw three touchdowns and ran for two more, setting up 2006 rematch for conference championship. The Bobcats (9-3, 7-4 ATS) offense has clicked the last few weeks, averaging 33.3 points per game, after scoring 19.5 PPG against lesser MAC competition in four prior games. Ohio U. arrives in Detroit with four-game winning streak and is 18-8 ATS off one or more wins the last five years.

Central Michigan finished first in the conference in points allowed at 17.8 and second in total defense at 331 yards per game surrendered. Defensive end Frank Zombo said “It hurt last year to be ranked near the bottom in team defense, - he added, “That’s why we missed the championship game, and we had to watch it on TV. That’s what motivated us in the offseason. We didn’t want to be on our couches watching the game again.”

The Chippewas may have a decided edge over Ohio U. if they get into the red zone. Central Michigan held opponents to a 73 percent scoring rate inside the 20-yard line, while the Bobcats ranks 106th in red zone scoring, and beggarly 114th in red zone touchdown percentage.

Sportsbook.com has Ohio U. as a 13-point underdog at Ford Field, with total of 53. The Bobcats realize the hill they have to climb, but have a much improved secondary since the last time these teams met and have forced FBS-best 35 turnovers this season.

“You want to be the best, then you have to beat the best,” senior WR Taylor Price said. “We get that chance.”

Creating turnovers will be huge for the Ohio since they are 8-1 ATS if they have the opponent commit at least two miscues. Oddmakers are setting a scoring pace CMU signal caller Dan LeFevour is very comfortable at, with 9-2 ATS record when the total is between 49.5 and 56.

Central Michigan has defeated Ohio three consecutive times (2-0-1 ATS), including 31-28 at Athens, OH last year and in MAC Championship 31-10 three years ago.

ESPN2 has the MAC title game at 8:00 Eastern.

It's rare that most people in the world are having a better week than Tiger Woods

Sorry I had to miss you yesterday, too much to do. When we last posted these we went 2-1 and today have CBB system that is 84.6 percent. The Top Trend is in the NBA at sparkling 11-1 and Steve of the LLC looks to nail yet another winner, this time in the NFL. Good Luck

What I thought today – The whole Tiger Woods thing is amazing. People wonder how he could do such a thing and it’s just another in the never ending line of athletes who believe after time they are infallible. His modest contrition was followed like usual blaming of the media for making his life awful and the rumors being unjust and unfair. Though I have always been a Tiger supporter, I’m disappointed not only with his infidelity, but his apology has to come with blaming someone else. Of course if he hadn’t been hawking around, this wouldn’t have happened, every think of that Eldrick? I guess he’s given the name “Tiger” a whole new meaning.

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Free Basketball System-1) I know this system isn’t going to make everyone run right out and play it based on the team; however it is the best of the bunch today. PLAY AGAINST underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Marist, after trailing their last two games by 10 or more points at the half, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season. It’s comforting to have 22-4 ATS record to back you up.

Free Basketball Trend-2) Denver is 11-1 ATS after three straight games where both teams scored 100 points or less over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Steve is playing the Under is NFL contest tonight.

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Pac-10 title on the line in Oregon

ESPN undoubtedly would love to take credit for having the foresight to knowing this year’s “Civil War” between Oregon State and Oregon would have this much at stake. Alas, even the worldwide leader in sports knows that you luck into situations like this, having a Rose Bowl bid at stake. This is the first time ever the conflict has meant a trip to the “Grand Daddy of them all” for both schools.

Even the most optimistic of Oregon State backers saw a middle of the road Beavers team for 2009 and even a month ago would not have had a clue their team would be playing for the right to go to the Rose Bowl as Pac-10 champions.

But on Nov. 7, after upsetting California on the road 31-14 and Oregon losing at Stanford, things started to fall into place for these suddenly eager Beavers. After that win, coach Mike Riley tried to add perspective to his team about lie ahead, “if you win a big game, then the next one gets bigger.” His players accepted the challenge and are riding three-game winning streak (3-0 ATS) and is 6-0 ATS in road games after two straight Pac-10 games over the last two seasons.

Oregon State (8-3, 6-4 ATS) fans have not made the trek to Pasadena since the first day of 1964. Coach Riley might have a national power if his team could ever get off to fast start. After beginning 2-2 the Beavers have gnawed their way to six wins and covers in last seven games. Oregon State is 16-7 SU and ATS the last four games of the regular season since 2004.

Oregon (9-2, 7-4 ATS) was brilliant in coming from behind at Arizona, trailing 24-14 in the fourth quarter and tying the game at 31 in the waning seconds before a frenzied crowded that was ready to storm the field. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was unbelievable down the stretch and in overtime and placed his team in position to be outright Pac-10 champions with a victory against their most hated rival. The Ducks were last conference champions in 2001, but were moved to Fiesta Bowl because of BCS arrangement at the time. A win by Oregon has them playing New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1995. Oregon is 7-1 ATS with additional rest.

Oregon has scored 42 or more points in each Pac-10 game Masoli has started. He’s a master at running the read-option and powerful runner. His passing and judgment has improved all season. He’ll lead the Pac-10’s second ranked rushing offense against the top-rated run defense. The Beavers only allow 98.4 yards per game on the ground, but were lit up for 385 rushing yards last year at home by the Ducks. Oregon’s incredible efficiency has them 14-3 ATS after a game where they committed one or less turnovers.

Bookmaker.com has Oregon as 9.5-points favorites with total of 61.5. Oregon State knows to win quarterback Sean Canfield has to be on target for league’s best passing attack. The Beavers also have to be able to run close to their average of 147 yards, after gaining just 89 yards in last year’s battle. OSU is 14-3 ATS after the first month of the season and is 9-1 UNDER in road games off three straight wins against conference competition. The outcome could well be determined by the total score with the Ducks 8-1 OVER as a home favorite over the last two years, winning by over 17 points per game.

This Pac-10 title tilt starts at 9:00 Eastern and Oregon is 7-14 ATS since 1988 vs. Oregon State, however the home teams is 8-4 ATS in last 12.

College Buckets on ESPN2

With one conference head to head challenge in the books, another commences Thursday. This is the opening night for the Big 12-/Pac-10 Hardwood Series, with three games on tap. We’ll focus our attention on the two main contests on ESPN2 to get things started.

Washington at Texas Tech 7:00ET, ESPN2

Washington (5-0, 1-4 ATS) is one of the co-favorites in the Pac-10, mostly because they have the best balance in the front and backcourt compared to their league foes. Guard Isaiah Thomas brings explosiveness and tremendous speed out of the Washington guard position. The best player for the Huskies is senior Quincy Pondexter, who last season started to live up to hype since arriving in Seattle. He’s become the most dependable scorer for coach Lorenzo Romar. For Washington to match expectations, Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Darnell Gant have to be a factor come game day. The Huskies are 5-16 ATS off three or more consecutive home wins.

Texas Tech (7-0, 1-1 ATS) has devoured a group of crème puffs thus far and will face first legit team of the season. The Red Raiders are expected to be lackluster in the Big 12 after last year’s 11th place finish. Texas Tech has four starters back for this campaign and wing player Nick Okorie and forward D’walyn Roberts have been the most impressive players to date and underrated point guard John Roberson has added stability. The Red Raiders earlier defeated another Pac-10 club Oregon State 64-60. This is step in class and they are 9-19 ATS after four or more consecutive wins.

Bookmaker.com has Washington as three-point favorites as they prepare to play first road game of the season and the Huskies are 6-0 ATS as the visitor after they failed to cover the spread. The Red Raiders are tough to gauge, but 6-0 ATS record after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games has to be given some credence.

USC at Texas 9:00ET, ESPN2

Another matchup for the series between the Big-12 and Pac-10 has the Trojans visiting Austin, TX. Southern Cal (2-2, 1-2 ATS) was a program on the rise just 12 months ago; however three of their top players declared for the NBA Draft and then coach Tim Floyd was embroiled in the middle of a scandal, which forced his resignation. All previous top level recruits begged out of wearing the burgundy and yellow and new coach Kevin O’Neill took over, not known as Mr. Warmth. USC’s depleted roster took another hit recently when Kasey Cunningham went down for the season with knee injury, leaving the Trojans with five passable D-1 players. They are 5-16 ATS in road games after they made 50 percent of their three-point shots or more (5-for-9) since 1997.

Coach Rick Barnes has enough depth on his roster in which he could loan USC a few players and not miss a beat if this was a scrimmage. Texas (5-0 SU & ATS) can sleep walk to 70 points with established star like Damion James and emerging big man Dexter Pittman. Players like Gary Johnson, Justin Mason and Dogus Balbay, who started heavy minutes last season, are not on the court as often and fighting daily in practice with newcomers who are as talented or better. Texas can turn up the defensive pressure and they are 40-22 ATS when they allow 61 to 66 points.
Texas is 20.5-point favorite and they are 8-1 ATS after two straight wins by 15 points or more. USC will try and hang in and is 11-3 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last three seasons.

Jets and Bills Thursday Preview

Like the New England-Tampa Bay matchup in London, passports will be needed for a New York-Buffalo matchup north of the border at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. Despite the hype and revenue this matchup produces, the buzz around Western New York has been the meeting between former Denver head coach Mike Shanahan and the Bills upper brass about the open coaching vacancy left by Dick Jauron.

These division teams are playing for little more than pride at this point although there is a chance the Jets (5-6 SU & ATS) could work their way into the wildcard race yet.

While Buffalo (4-7, 6-5 ATS) sorts out its head coaching situation, interim coach Perry Fewell will run the ship for the rest of the campaign and try to figure out how to generate some points on offense in the final five games. Whether it’s Trent Edwards or Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, sustained drives have been hard to come by and a rag-tag offensive line, which has been brutal. The Bills had averaged 12.2 points per game in last eight outings before ending their most recent losing streak at three games with 31-14 decision over Miami as four-point home underdogs. The Bills are 8-20 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over an AFC East rival.

This will be the second meeting between the teams in 2009, and New York will be looking to avenge a 16-13 home defeat. Buffalo has won four of the last six, including both SU and ATS between the clubs in Orchard Park, with the underdog on a 3-0 spread roll. For the Bills, this is a second divisional home game in five days so to speak, and they are 3-1 ATS in this season vs. AFC East rivals after the upset of Miami.

Nevertheless, only six teams average fewer points than Fewell’s crew, and the offense has only four rushing touchdowns heading into Week 13. The Jets, meanwhile, are second (161.3 yards per game) in the league in rushing and boast 14 rushing scores.

New York will be looking for a much better performance from rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez than the last time he faced the Bills. The Week 6 loss to Buffalo was the first signs of cracking in the Sanchez foundation. He threw five interceptions, three to rookie Jairus Byrd, and wasted a 210-yard, one-touchdown effort from RB Thomas Jones and a potential 50-yard field-goal try by Jay Feely in overtime saw holder Steve Weatherford unable to handle the snap. The Flyboys are 3-6 ATS since 2005 in the first of two straight road assignments.

Bookmaker.com has New York as three-point favorites in Toronto and the Jets have won just once in five divisional games, both SU & ATS and are 1-6 ATS in their last seven AFC East contests overall. Coach Rex Ryan’s defense held Carolina to six points and 179 yards in the Meadowlands last week and they are 13-3 UNDER in road games after allowing four or less yards per play in their previous game. The listed total for this clash is 37 points.

Buffalo is 8-3 ATS against Gang Green since 2004 and after forcing four turnovers last Sunday, the Bills are 6-0 UNDER after a game with turnover margin of +3 or better.

This is NFL Network telecast which starts at 8:20E and the UNDER is perfect 6-0 on Thursday night’s this season.


Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article

Conference Championship Games History

The Southeastern Conference was the innovator of the Conference Championship game back in 1992 and when you think about, this has helped propel them to being arguably the best conference in college football year in, year out. The leaders of the SEC knew their customer was a football starved fan and would relish the opportunity for one more game to decide the league’s title. Most years this has provided additional excitement by splitting the conference into two divisions, giving more schools an opportunity to compete in this confrontation.

Alabama and Florida met in the first three games between these schools in this instant classic. In the first game, unbeaten Alabama came in ranked number two in the country and was a solid 10-point favorite over a Florida team that had lost three times, coached by Steve Spurrier, who had just started things rolling at his alma mater. With this being such a new venture, the SEC settled on Legion Field in Birmingham, the Crimson Tide’s home away from home. This guaranteed a sellout and the game was played there the first two years.

Alabama had allowed only eight points a game with its stifling defense, but a cocksure Spurrier had his team well prepared and with nothing to lose, took the opening kickoff for a touchdown. The Tide’s defense had trouble all game long with the Gators, allowing 347 yards, after surrendering only a 183 yards per game all year. Alabama hung on to win 28-21 over Florida. This year will be the sixth matchup between these teams in this contest, with Florida 3-2 SU and ATS. The Gators are 3-1 ATS when favored.

This will be the fifth appearance for each Nebraska and Texas in the Big 12 championship with the Cornhuskers 3-1 ATS and the Longhorns just the opposite at 1-3 ATS. This will be their third get-together in this battle.

Do you think Marshall ever wonders about leaving the MAC? They played in the first six championship games (won five) and haven’t been heard from since, moving on to Conference USA. Central Michigan looks to move into second place for MAC titles (seeking third) behind the Thundering Herd with a win this season, since this contest began in 1997.

Bettors receive five additional possibilities to consider that have often had their share of surprises. Here’s a look at the history of each of the conference championships.

SEC

The SEC will be playing it 18th championship game and has a rematch from last season, with Alabama facing the top-ranked team in the country in Florida. In the previous seventeen years, four teams, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee or LSU have been one of the participants in this contest. The favorite has won 14 of the 17 games; however it has been a battle most of the time as 8-8-1 against the spread record shows. For many college football fans, especially in the South, this game would do just fine to settle the national championship in 2009. However, it is just another step closer for the winner, moving to BCS title game and this team will likely be a favorite against whomever they play. Since 1996, the total has gone on runs of two or more and the UNDER has been the play the last two seasons.

Past SEC Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 –FLORIDA (-10, 54) 31, ALABAMA 20 –FAV/FAV/UNDER
12/1/07 - LSU (-7, 58) 21, TENNESSEE 14 - FAV / Push / UNDER
12/2/06 - FLORIDA (-3, 44.5) 38, ARKANSAS 28 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/3/05 - GEORGIA 34, LSU (-2, 42) 14 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/4/04 - AUBURN (-14.5, 47.5) 38, TENNESSEE 28 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/6/03 - LSU (-3, 42) 34, GEORGIA 13 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/02 - GEORGIA (-9, 47) 30, ARKANSAS 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/8/01 - LSU 31, TENNESSEE (-7, 54) 20 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/2/00 - FLORIDA (-10, 51.5) 28, AUBURN 6 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/4/99 - ALABAMA 34, FLORIDA (-7, 51) 7 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/5/98 - TENNESSEE (-15, 48) 24, MISSISSIPPI ST 14 - FAV / DOG / UNDER
12/6/97 - TENNESSEE (-7.5, 58.5) 30, AUBURN 29 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/7/96 - FLORIDA (-14, 48.5) 45, ALABAMA 30 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/2/95 - FLORIDA (-24, 56) 34, ARKANSAS 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/3/94 - FLORIDA (-7, 46.5) 24, ALABAMA 23 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/4/93 - FLORIDA (-4.5, 43.5) 28, ALABAMA 13 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/5/92 - ALABAMA (-10, 37) 28, FLORIDA 21 - FAV / DOG / OVER

Big 12

The Big 12 joined the festivities in 1996 and exploded onto the scene with a memorable contest. Nebraska had its usual powerhouse and was huge 20.5-point favorites over Texas, who had lost four regular season games. Longhorns coach John Mackovic emptied the playbook, utilizing trick plays and fourth down attempts and upset the heavily favored Cornhuskers 37-27. This gave the Big 12 affair instant credibility. Two years later, an unbeaten Kansas State squad cruised into the title game as 17.5-point favorites and was upset 36-33 by Texas A&M. Five seasons later, the Wildcats were able to pull the same trick on Oklahoma. The Sooners were unbeatable and two touchdown favorites over Bill Snyder’s K-State club. The Wildcats came out throwing deep and caught an overconfident Oklahoma team off-guard and buried Bob Stoops Sooners 35-7. Those represent three of the four losses by the favored team in 13 tries. The favorite is 8-4-1 ATS in the history of the game. Since 2002, this contest has been a series of blowouts, with the average winning margin being 31.7, with the closest three years ago, as Oklahoma won 21-7 over Nebraska. Eight of the 13 contests played have covered the spread by 10 or more points. The South Division has been by far the better of the two Big 12 divisions and that is shown by 5-0 SU and ATS dominance the last five years in this encounter. The UNDER has been the play five of the last seven contests.

Past Big 12 Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 – OKLAHOMA (-16.5, 78.5) 62, MISSOURI 21 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/1/07 – OKLAHOMA (-3, 64.5) 38, MISSOURI 17 - FAV /FAV / UNDER
12/2/06 - OKLAHOMA (-3.5, 44.5) 21, NEBRASKA 7 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/3/05 - TEXAS (-25, 60.5) 70, COLORADO 3 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/4/04 - OKLAHOMA (-23.5, 54.5) 42, COLORADO 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/6/03 - KANSAS ST 35, OKLAHOMA (-14, 53) 7 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/7/02 - OKLAHOMA (-7, 51) 29, COLORADO 7 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/01 - COLORADO 39, TEXAS (-7, 54.5) 37 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/00 - OKLAHOMA (-3, 53) 27, KANSAS ST 24 - FAV / Push / UNDER
12/4/99 - NEBRASKA (-8, 52.5) 22, TEXAS 6 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/5/98 - TEXAS A&M 36, KANSAS ST (-17.5, 46) 33 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/6/97 - NEBRASKA (-19, 53) 54, TEXAS A&M 15 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/96 - TEXAS 37, NEBRASKA (-20.5, 56) 27 - DOG / DOG / OVER

MAC

In 1997, the MAC joined the fun and has been the most entertaining of the conference championships. Eight of the 12 games played have been decided by eight points or less in highly competitive conflicts. This will be Central Michigan’s third appearance in the last four years in this game. This sets up another meeting with Ohio U., whom they whipped in 2006. Being the underdog is the better position in this contest as they are 7-4 ATS, with the favorite only 6-5 SU in lined MAC matchups for the crown. Following the same line of thinking, the team with the poorer record heading into the game is 7-2-1 ATS (Ohio U, this season). The dog has covered a double digit spread in all four instances.

Past MAC Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/5/08 – BUFFALO 42, BALL STATE (-15, 62.5) 24 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/1/07 – C MICHIGAN (-3, 64) 35, MIAMI OHIO 10 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
11/30/06 - C MICHIGAN (-3, 46.5) 31, OHIO U 10 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/05 - AKRON 31, N ILLINOIS (-13, 53.5) 30 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/04 - TOLEDO 35, MIAMI OHIO (-1.5, 64) 27 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/4/03 - MIAMI OHIO (-6.5, 57) 49, BOWLING GREEN 27 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/02 - MARSHALL (-2.5, 62.5) 49, TOLEDO 45 - FAV / FAV / OVER
11/30/01 - TOLEDO 41, MARSHALL (-2.5, 63.5) 36 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/00 - MARSHALL 18, W MICHIGAN (-6.5, 54.5) 14 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/3/99 - MARSHALL (-20, 56.5) 34, W MICHIGAN 30 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/4/98 - MARSHALL (-12, 48) 23, TOLEDO 17 - FAV / DOG / UNDER
12/5/97 - TOLEDO 14, MARSHALL 34 - N/A / N/A / N/A

ACC

The ACC has engaged in the fray in the last four years and it does not elicit much support on a local or national level. The ACC has had severe attendance problems; not being able to bring many of the locals to the contests played in Jacksonville or Tampa and would probably be better suited in Charlotte. The ACC championship has seen the favored teams lose outright three of four times, opening up more conjecture for this season. This is the second straight year the game features a rematch, with Georgia Tech having stopped Clemson 30-27 as five-point home favorites. After several years of not living up to expectations, the Tigers have finally made it to the title tilt. This is the Yellow Jackets second appearance in ACC finale and rest assured it will be a much higher scoring affair then their last visit.

Past ACC Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 – VIRGINIA TECH 30, BOSTON COLLEGE (-1, 38) 12 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/1/07 – VIRGINIA TECH (-4, 48) 30, BOSTON COLLEGE 16 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/2/06 - WAKE FOREST 9, GEORGIA TECH (-1, 40) 6 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/3/05 - FLORIDA ST 27, VIRGINIA TECH (-14.5, 45) 22 - DOG / DOG / OVER

Conference USA

Conference USA does not have the football tradition to play such a game at a neutral site and instead has one of the teams participating as the host. The home team has won and covered the first three conflicts, until East Carolina pulled the big surprise. The Pirates are back to defend their title, this time at home. Though the sampling is small, it is not a surprise this defensively-challenged conference is the only one that has not had a total under 50. This leads to negative angles for both teams in this battle. Houston is 2-9 ATS in road games when they allow 28 or more points, while East Carolina is 0-6 ATS when they concede 28 or more points.

In looking at the history of all games played on the home field of one team, the host is 7-3 SU, covering the spread on five occasions. The Over has been the play in six of the 10 affairs.

Past Conference USA Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 – EAST CAROLINA 27, TULSA (-12, 66) 24- DOG /DOG / UNDER
12/1/07 - CENTRAL FLORIDA (-7.5, 73) 44, TULSA 25 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/06 - HOUSTON (-5.5, 53.5) 34, SOUTHERN MISS 20 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/3/05 - TULSA (-2.5, 57) 44, C FLORIDA 27 - FAV / FAV / OVER

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror

Here’s the deal, if you bet for or against the Carolina Panthers and lose, it’s your fault, since you’ve been warned. Jake Delhomme has a stranglehold on this franchise and his remarkably inconsistent play has bettors improving Rogaine sales, pulling their hair out.

After Delhomme continued last year’s playoff meltdown by throwing seven interceptions in first three games, all Carolina losses, coach John Fox said the he was his quarterback (since he didn’t have another on the roster that was any better). The Panthers offense live and running backs put a band-aid on the problem by winning three of next four games, and Delhomme actually went three games without a pick.

After last week’s loss to the Jets, it’s clear the “bad” Jake is back. He threw four absolutely lame interceptions against the Jets in 17-6 loss as 3.5-point underdogs. He threw more passes off his back foot against the Flyboys secondary; he actually wore out two heels on his right shoe in 34 pass attempts. In his last two games, Jake is 33-78 for 357 yards and has two TD’s and five picks. His quarterback ratings for those two contests have been 60.3 and 12.7. As stated, you been warned.

If you wondered how 6-5 Jacksonville could possibly attain a winning record, you have plenty of company. The Jaguars are the only team in the NFL with a positive record that has allowed more points than they have scored and by a rather large margin (202-255). Don’t expect them to be around come playoff time.

The Arizona and Tennessee contest ended being the betting game of the week. The Titans had largely opened as one-point home favorites and it drifted up to two points by Saturday. Just as the first NFL games were kicking off Sunday, word started filtering out that Kurt Warner was not going to play. That led to a rush of Tennessee money pouring in with many bettors having the Titans as -3 or those who came at game time at -3.5. As we know, Vince Young threw a touchdown on last play of the game and those holding Cardinals tickets lost for the most part, while many Titans backers were hung at -3.5, while those that held -3 or +3 got their money back.

Week 12 of the NFL was the first time in five weeks the favorites had a winning spread record (9-7) and for the fourth time in five weeks, the UNDER was the play overall.

Last Friday was the big shopping day known as Black Friday. For college football bettors who prefer favorites, the term took on another meaning as the chalk was 3-8-1 ATS and for the weekend they were 17-31-1 ATS, their worst showing percentage-wise since Week 5 of last season (16-30-1 ATS).

From an entertainment perspective, rivalry week was awesome and more like it used to be several years ago when underdogs were dependable plays when matched against their biggest rival.

Time to call out Pete Carroll as a hypocrite. After engaging and questioning Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh about going for two-points trying to get to a half a hundred against his Trojans, two weeks later USC threw TD bomb in the last minute to score a needless touchdown in 28-7 win over city rival UCLA. What made it all the more unusual is sometimes word gets to coaches about alumni having large wagers on certain games and they wouldn’t mind if the coach scored one more to make sure the donors are happy. That didn’t appear to be the case here since USC opened at -14, but were bet down quickly from there.

Know your Football Numbers-

Winning as a road underdog in the NFL is a big deal this season. This has been a real confidence booster for these clubs since they are 20-10-2 ATS in next game. We’re seeing a modest resurgence of an old favorite in the NFL, playing on teams off exactly three ATS losses. Their record is 11-6 ATS in 2009 and Seattle could be a potential play, but they had a bye week in the mix, which knocks them out.

My pal Steve Makinen wrote an article recently stating some stats are more dependable than others when addressing the NFL and he mentioned yards per point. Since week 4 (what I use as starting point), teams that were in the top 5 for that week and not playing another team in the same group, are respectable 20-15-1 ATS. Those teams in the bottom five after rocky 6-12 ATS start are 13-6 against the spread. Also of interest, when a bottom five team plays a top five team in YPPT, they are 4-3 ATS, having covered last four. Click here to see this week’s teams.

Turnovers are the one aspect college football bettors can’t truly account for. However, this season there has been one area you can at least receive some help. Teams that have committed five or more turnovers are 24-12-1 ATS if they play the following week and squads that force five or more miscues are 28-19-1 ATS if they play the next weekend.

Time to run up three Winners

A mildly disappointing 1-2 day, as Milwaukee missed covering by a single point. Steve of the Left Coast Connection has been brilliant in the NBA to date and offers his Best Bet. The Best System is 84.8 percent in a contest involving the Big 10 (11) and the ACC. The Top Trend is nearly perfect in college hoops. Good Luck

What I learned today – New Orleans ran 50 plays from scrimmage on Monday and averaged 9.6 yards per play. Since the 1970 merger only two teams have had as high an average yards per play while running a half-century of plays in one game: the Jets against the Colts in 1972 (10.6) and the Rams against the Chargers in 2000 (9.9). The Saints and Colts are first teams ever to start 11-0. Thanks Elias

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Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Wake Forest, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. The record reads 28-5 ATS the last dozen years.

Free Basketball Trend-2) The San Francisco Dons (as opposed to the Charley’s) are 1-11 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Steve of the LCC is 40-21in the NBA and is on Denver tonight.

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ACC/Big Ten Tuesday Preview

This 11- game event should be renamed – The Big Ten’s Challenge to defeat the ACC. If the Big Ten Conference had realized they would be zero and 10 in this matchup, they probably would have opted out like some of the football teams do and maybe gone after the Big Sky, however at least soon to be college players learn to see how to take defeat gracefully watching them play. Four games are on tap for Tuesday and two contests involve ranked teams from the Top 25. Here is Tuesday night’s preview. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Michigan State at North Carolina (-2) 9:00E ESPN

It’s a rematch of last season’s national championship game with the Spartans and Tar Heels. North Carolina had one good and one bad game in preseason NIT, but has talent. The year after the Heels won their last championship, they essentially started over with a freshmen class that that ended up winning last year’s title. This club has far more experience with the likes of Deon Thompson, Marcus Ginyard and Deonte Thompson. Sophomores Larry Drew II and Tyler Zeller just need playing time and Drew in particular has to play better and protect the ball, committing too many turnovers. North Carolina has 29-12 ATS record in non-conference tilts and has covered last six against the Big Ten.

Kalin Lucas proved his worth last year and is the Michigan State team leader. With Raymar Morgan being less than 100 percent for the second year in a row, Durrell Summers is comfortably fitting into the role of second choice in the Michigan State pecking order. Summers expanded game makes him a more versatile asset. The Spartans have already been tested; having Gonzaga outplay them for 30 minutes before prevailing 75-71 and being upset by Florida 77-74 as 3.5-point favorites, thanks to 2-10 from behind the arc. Michigan State is 19-9 ATS away from East Lansing in December games.

Michigan State is the only Big Ten team to have winning record (5-4) in Challenge and the Tar Heels are 5-5.

Wake Forest at Purdue (-10.5) 7:00ET ESPN

The Demon Deacons are minus their two top scorers from a year ago yet might end up being a better team, as players that played secondary roles will be featured more. That includes forward Al-Farouq Aminu and center Chas McFarland. It is up to Ish Smith to be facilitator at the point guard and coach Dino Gaudio is very pleased to pick up JC transfer Konner Tucker and freshman Ari Stewart, both excellent shooters, which has been a sore spot with the team the last few years. This problem resurfaced against William & Mary in 78-68 loss, shooting 35.1 percent from the field and making just half their free throw attempts. Wake Forest is 26-17 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record and near perfect 8-1 vs Big Ten in this competition.

Purdue hasn’t gotten off to the kind of start they would like; no they are playing good basketball, but have been hampered by two key injuries. Freshman big man Sandi Marcius was lost for up to six weeks to a broken foot early in preseason practice and point guard Lewis Jackson with injured foot. That means increased minutes for Keaton Grant, which might make the Boilermakers a little less explosive, but better defensively. E’Twaun Moore, Robbie Hummel and JaJuan Johnson are who drives the Purdue bus and this trio is keeping them in the fast lane, winning Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands with a thrilling one-point win over Tennessee.

The Boilers are 3-11 ATS in December games over the last three seasons and 2-6 SU in this event.

Maryland at Indiana (+4.5) 7:30E ESPN2

The Terrapins return to action after a disappointing 1-2 record in Maui, losing rather easily to Cincinnati and Wisconsin, both who might be bigger factors in their respective leagues than first thought. Maryland didn’t receive the backcourt play they expected and were soundly beaten on the glass, which was big factor. Maryland is 6-2 ATS off a loss and 4-1-1 ATS vs. the Big Ten.

The rebuilding process continues in Indiana and junior transfer Jeremiah Rivers is making his youthful companions better, dealing the ball with aplomb. Christian Watford and Maurice Creek have been among the benefactors and Verdell Jones III has also been on the receiving end of assists. The Hoosiers are 1-6-1 ATS after covering the spread.

Virginia Tech at Iowa (+3) 9:30E ESPN2

The Hokies are giving headaches to backers in spite of 4-1 start. Virginia Tech is 0-4 ATS, failing to put the ball in the basket with any level of consistency. Their early season slate does not in any way represent what they will face in the ACC, yet only once have thet shot over 45 percent. They are 1-7 ATS off a SU victory and 0-5 vs. the Big Ten.

Iowa is off to one of their worst start in decades, with defections, too many young players and a general lack of talent to play at a high level. At least they will have the crowd on their side, though nobody will magically appear to be a post player. Coach Todd Lickliter is already getting heat and they are forced to rely too heavily on the three-ball, with no threat down low. Teams are pressuring the perimeter, not respecting the Hawkeyes ability to tabulate points in the paint. Iowa is 17-37 ATS in most recent non-conference games.

Can Charlotte upset Celtics?

Since Charlotte returned to the NBA as the Bobcats in 2004, losing has been synonymous with the franchise. The most recent coach hired to lure fans back to professional basketball is the much-traveled Larry Brown, the Billy Martin of basketball for those old enough to have heard of him.

Brown is an ornery sort, who eventually wears out his welcome, nonetheless he knows how to coach and win basketball games by maximizing his players’ talents. Coincidently, if the players aren’t interested in Brown’s methodology, they usually sit and are eventually traded.

This season the Bobcats are 7-9 and are second to Atlanta in the league covering the spread with 11-5 record. Charlotte’s style of play couldn’t be more contrarian to say Phoenix, since they play a controlled defensive game, which coach Brown believes gives them the best opportunity to win.

While ranking just ahead of 0-17 New Jersey in points scored at 88.2, Charlotte leads the NBA in fewest points allowed at 87.9 per game and it’s just not playing at slower pace, since they are third in defensive field goal percentage (43.3).

To this point of the season, the Bobcats are establishing a quality home court advantage with 6-2 SU and ATS record. Charlotte ranks sixth among NBA teams on their home court, with a 9.1 score differential. Only the elite clubs like Phoenix, Boston, Denver, San Antonio and the L.A. Lakers have a wider margin playing at home.

Charlotte has won and covered four in a row and oddsmakers have taken notice. The Bobcats face Boston this evening and the Celtics have the second best record in the Eastern Conference at 13-4 (7-10 ATS).

Bookmaker.com has Boston as 3.5-point road favorites and the Celtics are 6-1 as road warriors, but have covered just three times. They also have won four consecutive games (2-2 ATS) and are 9-3-1 ATS against teams with winning home records.

However, don’t discount Charlotte’s obvious edges. The C’s have a bigger game at San Antonio in two days and might not bring game face to North Carolina. This is a test for the Bobcats to get a read they are moving in the right direction and they are 27-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. If you trust trends, especially powerful ones, the Bobcats 15-1 ATS record after allowing 85 points or less cannot be ignored.

Is Charlotte with wagering consideration tonight at 7:00 Eastern? Backed with the knowledge they are 9-1 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons, winning by 9.7 points a game, than the answer is yes.

Magical Monday Night

Ended up officially 2-1, though many probably had a push on Tennessee and Arizona. Today we an 88.9 percent NBA system on a losing team that is favored. The Chicago Bulls have yet to cover in a specific angle in a number of tries and red hot Kendall has a Free CBB play. We also check in on how many experts feel about tonight’s big football contest. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday – You cannot bet the Carolina Panthers, period. Yesterday they had an easy opportunity to cover against the New York Jets and Jake Delhomme returned back to early season form. There are option quarterbacks in college football that throw the ball better than he does right now. On Sunday he made Bills backup Ryan Fitzpatrick look like he belongs in the NFL. I honestly don’t know how you bet for or against Carolina with Delhomme the biggest wild card holding back a franchise.

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Free Basketball System-1) The Golden State Warriors are off to another dismal start at 5-10 and were lambasted 130-97 by the Los Angeles Lakers in last contest. That could be good news tonight for the league’s third highest scoring team (108.5 PPG), as home clubs scoring 103 or more points a game on the season, off a loss by 10 points or more, with the line at +3 to -3, are 24-3 ATS the last 13 years.

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Chicago Bulls are 0-9 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kendall is 11-3 the three days in all his top plays and is on Bowling Green tonight. (LCC members are a divided house, 10 each on the Saints and Patriots and four apiece on the total)

Paul Buck’s Monday Night Magic- Guaranteed

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New England attracting bettor’s attention as underdogs

With the exception of a game or two, the Monday Night football package has enjoyed a number of very entertaining contests. The excitement goes from exceptional to like a child waiting to open that first Christmas present with what is in store Monday night.

Two years ago, the New England Patriots started the season 10-0 on their way to perfect regular season record and had a prime time telecast against Philadelphia, in which the Eagles gave them everything they could handle, before they prevailed 31-28 as better than three touchdown home favorites. That was the first chink in the armor of New England all season and it would not completely manifest itself until they lost in Super Bowl XLII to the New York Giants.

Now the 7-3 Patriots head to the bayou in the role of spoiler, in the exact opposite situation two years later, trying to knock off the perfect 10-0 New Orleans Saints.

The Patriots (6-4 ATS) quickly put behind the notorious Bill Belichick decision against Indianapolis and jettison past the New York Jets 31-14. Tom Brady and receivers Wes Welker and Randy Moss are backing to tearing up defenses. New England is the AFC’s highest scoring offense at 29 points per game and they are averaging 37.2 PPG over their last five outings. They are 37-18 ATS having won four out of their last five games.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Pats in a shootout with New Orleans, as total is up to 56.5. This has not been a reason to back off the Brady bunch, who is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards per game and 7-0 against the spread if they face a team scoring 29 or more points per contest.

But as good as the Patriots are and have been, New Orleans (7-3 ATS) has been better this season.

Drew Brees is in charge of the top scoring (36.9) team in the league and best offense (420.5) for gaining yards. The Saints increased production followed the offense live and its running backs. New Orleans can pound the ball to control the clock behind Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell averaging 4.8 yards per carry (4th) against teams that allow 4.4. Depending on how coach Sean Payton sets up the game plan and how the flow of the game emerges, New Orleans can play different styles with equal effectiveness. The Saints are 10-1 ATS vs. AFC opponent with .666 or better record in the Superdome.

Oddmakers opened New Orleans as garden variety three-point home favorites, but the wagering public still prefers the Patriots big game experience and have bet the Saints down to 1.5-point choice, despite the 13-4 ATS record as favorites.

New Orleans has scored 21 or more points in 18 straight home games and is 11-1 OVER when the line is +3 to -3. The three-time Super Bowl champions are 10-2 OVER versus rushing teams averaging 4.5 or yards a carry over the last three seasons.

New England covers if they handle the New Orleans blitz packages. More teams have been using combo coverages on Moss, which has left a lot of room for Welker to work underneath and move the chains. This allows the Patriots to move the chains and sets up Moss for later against a secondary that is less than 100 percent health-wise. Expect the Pats to be more patient in the running game than normal, since the Saints have surrendered over 150 yards per game the last four outings. Despite rumored opinions of coach Belichick having lost faith in his defense, the New England secondary is playing a much greater variety of coverages than earlier in the season and will have to mix press coverage with different Cover 2 looks and run exotic blitzes just to keep Brees guessing, which could lead to turnover.

New Orleans covers if they protect the ball. In weeks 7-10, they turned the ball over 13 times and not coincidently, failed to cover three of those four wins. Brees will see different looks than he’s seen all season and has to exhibit patience. Coach Payton has really improved as play-caller, leaving out the “look how smart I am” plays that sometimes placed his team in bad spots in key moments of games. Where the coach has to be at his best is in the red zone, since New England is in the bottom third of the league in defending scores in confined area. The same holds true of Saints defense. Don’t worry about giving up yardage; play tough in the red zone. The Patriots are surprising below average in this area (21 TDs on 44 possessions), which is pointed out ranking third in scoring and ninth in yards per point.

Monday Night System – Play Against any outdoor road team facing an opponent that plays in a dome. (32-14 ATS, 69.5 percent L12Y)

Penn State and Virginia get things started

This is the opening matchup of the Big Ten-ACC Challenge and both teams look to build on good shooting victories. Off last season’s NIT championship, Penn State coach Ed DeChellis is searching for buckets this season. He knows what to expect out of guard Talor Battle, but not quite sure what to expect from everyone else. Chris Babb and Jeff Brooks have responded well early, and Andrew Jones continues to make good choices in terms of shot selection.

The Nittany Lions (4-2, 2-3 ATS) ticked the twine with great frequency, shooting 63.8 percent in 87-75 win over Sacred Heart in last contest, though failed to cover as 16.5-point home favorites. Penn State is 6-0 ATS in true road non-conference games.

First year coach Tony Bennett has half his team in order at Virginia (4-2, 2-2 ATS), the other aspect will take time and effort. The Cavaliers have all five starters from last season and eight of nine top scorers that accounted for 91 percent of offense. Great, super, wonderful, except coach Bennett is defensive-minded coach and really wants the effort on that end of the floor.

Virginia defeated Cleveland State 76-65 the last time out as 3.5-point favorites, shooting 52.8 percent. Bennett had to be pleased with the effort, but not the defense, which allowed a season-high 55.3 percent. Thus far the Cavaliers have seen three opponents shoot 47.5 or better and three other teams convert less than 39 percent from the field. Virginia is 11-24 ATS after allowing opposing team 55 percent or higher shooting percentage.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Cavaliers as 5.5-point favorites and they are only 13-16 ATS on their home floor the last 2+ years and 4-10 ATS in non-conference action of late. Penn State is not a comforting choice either with 7-17-1 spread record as an underdog of 6.5-points or less.
The total appears to be a tough call with the Nittany Lions 8-1 OVER against the ACC and Virginia 7-0 UNDER after covering the spread.

The ACC has never lost this event in its 10 years and ESPN2 will have the coverage starting at 7:00 Eastern. Virginia is 5-4 SU with Penn State 3-5 SU in the years they played.

Bringing our Sunday Best

I have so much respect for Sal I played SMU just because of his skill, even though I didn’t like the game at all and I got what I deserved. Overall a disappointing 1-2 record as underdogs again ruled the day for the most part. For Week 12 of the NFL, we’ll see if we can find another Best System winner that is 86.7 percent. The Jaguars are among the leading contenders in the AFC for the wild card despite being outscored on the season. The Top Trend checks in on them. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – It’s been a few years, but wasn’t it great as a viewer to watch so many compelling college football games? The rivalry game aspect has not been as interesting the last few years, but it made up for lost time with one amazing finish or upset after another. Truly a memorable couple of days.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road teams like Arizona after a game where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers. Going back five seasons, this system is 26-4 ATS, 86.7 percent, which includes the 3-0 record this year.

Free Football Trend-2) The Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-12 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Kendall has hit 12 of last 16 NFL plays and likes Atlanta to punish Tampa Bay at home.

NFL Week 12 Previews

Thought this would be a good time for a changeup this week in the NFL. We’ll make a run through the entire Sunday day time slate, paraphrasing what Joe Friday from Dragnet used to say, “Just the facts please”. Take a look at key information on both sides and totals action for Week 12 of the NFL season. Lines courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5, 47.5) at HOUSTON 1:00E CBS

The Texans (5-5, 5-4-1 ATS) come into Sunday’s game vs. Indianapolis as winners of their previous eight games as a home underdog against the spread. In six of those, they won outright but the two straight up losses came at the hands of the Colts, who won at Reliant Stadium by four points in both 2007 and 2008. Going back even further, Houston has won just once in seven home tries vs. Indianapolis, but has compiled a competitive 5-2 ATS mark. If the Colts (10-0, 6-4 ATS), who remain undefeated after winning at Baltimore, have had any weak spot when it comes to pointspreads, it’s been in divisional play, 7-14 ATS dating back to 2006. The Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight AFC South home games. Their contests vs. division foes have been high scoring as well, with 16-6 OVER mark.

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI (-13, 39.5) 1:00 CBS

The Browns (1-9, 4-6 ATS) nearly handed Cincinnati a defeat back in Week 4, falling 23-20. That game was in Cleveland, and marked the third straight win in the head-to-head series by the visiting team. This second meeting is at Paul Brown Stadium in the Queen City, and would seem to favor Cleveland based upon that last trend, but unfortunately, the Browns have been dreadful, particularly on the road, being outscored by 14.5 points per game while going 1-5 SU & 3-3 ATS. The latest debacle was in Detroit where they lost 38-37, giving up a 24-3 lead. For the Bengals (7-3, 6-4 ATS), off the upset loss in Oakland, they have gotten to the top of the AFC North thanks to their performance against divisional foes. This will in fact be their last division game of 2009, and they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS to date. Cincinnati is shredding poor pass defenses and is 16-3 ATS vs. teams allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt in the second half of the season.

CHICAGO at MINNESOTA (-11, 47) 4:15E FOX

The Vikings (6-3-1 ATS) wrap up a season long three-game homestand when they host Chicago. This head-to-head series has been one dominated by home teams in recent years, 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS since 2002. It will be the first matchup of 2009, with the next one in just four weeks. Chicago (4-6 ATS) has dropped five of its last six games to fall to 4-6, and with the logjam of teams in the NFC wildcard hunt, postseason hopes are dimming. The Bears boast a record of 25-12 ATS in November road contests, 8-5-1 ATS under coach Lovie Smith. The Vikings, now 9-1 after beating Seattle, have swept their divisional opponents so far this season, going 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS. Last November’s 34-14 win by host Minnesota marked the first time in six games where the winning margin was more than 10 points. Chicago’s collapse could be extended since they are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. offensive teams scoring 29 or more points a contest, losing by almost 24 point a game.

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA (-9.5, 40.5) 1:00E FOX

Washington faces a second straight divisional road tilt when it travels to Philadelphia (6-4 SU & ATS). The Redskins (3-7 ATS) look for better results than what happened in Dallas, a 7-6 defeat that dropped their record to 3-7. That was Washington’s third straight divisional loss of 2009; however they’ve won their last two games in Philly, both as 6-1/2 point underdogs. The Eagles won the first meeting between these teams back on Monday night, October 26th, 27-17. That marked the fifth time in six games that the visiting team won outright. Head coach Andy Reid’s team is 1-1 SU & ATS vs. divisional foes at home this season and just 2-7 ATS in that scenario dating back four seasons. However, they are 25-10 ATS vs. bad teams (Win Pct. 25% to 40%), and 18-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points in his tenure.

MIAMI (-3, 39) at BUFFALO 1:00E CBS

The Dolphins are .500 for the first time this season, and as much as it’s been an uphill climb to this point, it gets even tougher, as Miami (5-5 ATS) will be without stud running back Ronnie Brown against a challenging end of the year slate. This one at Buffalo is the easiest on paper, as the Bills (3-7, 5-5 ATS) are struggling and just last week fired their coach. Plus, the Dolphins boast an impressive 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS mark on the road in divisional play under coach Tony Sparano. They will however, be looking to snap a skid of eight straight ATS losses vs. poor offensive teams gaining 285 or fewer yards per game. Buffalo averages just 275.7 yards and is scoring just 13.2 points per game in its four home contests of 2009 (1-3 SU & ATS). The Bills are 8-4 SU and ATS in last dozen hosting Miami, and had won four straight prior to the last season’s defeat.

ARIZONA at TENNESSEE (-2, 45) 4:15 FOX

Arizona has yet to lose on the road in five games this season, covering four of them. A sixth straight win will be a challenge though, as the Cardinals (7-3, 6-4 ATS) will be visiting Tennessee, a team that seems to have awaken from the dead. After dropping their first six games, the Titans (4-6, 5-5 ATS) have rallied with running back Chris Johnson insisting they would finish 10-6. Considering HC Jeff Fisher’s team won its first 10 games on 2008, maybe the boast wasn’t so outlandish. If the winning streak is still intact after Monday, Tennessee looks to make it five straight and extend a 32-14 ATS record vs. NFC foes under Fisher. Arizona has gotten hot itself, winning six of seven, regaining the Super Bowl form of 2008. Under Ken Whisenhunt, the Cards are 8-0 ATS vs. teams allowing 350 or more yards per contest and Tennessee concedes 376. Given the Titans turnaround, don’t ignore their 7-0 ATS mark after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in three straight games.

SEATTLE (-4, 42.5) at ST LOUIS 1:00E FOX

A strange NFL scheduling twist finds St. Louis (1-9, 5-5 ATS) wrapping up a three-game homestand against Seattle (3-7 SU & ATS), a team finishing off a three-game road trip. Not only are three-game swings rare in general, but teams squaring off in opposite ends is almost unheard of. It will be the second meeting between the divisional rivals of 2009, with the Seahawks having taken the season opener 27-0 at home. It was their fifth straight win in the head-to-head series, both SU & ATS. In St. Louis, Seattle has taken four straight, none by more than six-points however. The Rams are on a 3-12 ATS slide vs. division foes, and 7-22 ATS in same-season revenge spots. A win by either side would be the first of the year in the current home/road setup, with Seattle 0-5 away, and St. Louis 0-5 as host.

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA (-12, 46) 1:00E FOX

With two head-to-head matchups in the final six weeks of their respective schedules, Tampa Bay (1-9, 5-7 ATS) will have the chance to really impact Atlanta’s playoff hopes. As it is, those hopes are already fading, as the Falcons (5-5, 3-7 ATS) have lost four of five games to slip back to .500. They have been solid at home however, going 4-0 SU and ATS in 2009, and 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in the year-and-half under HC Mike Smith. His team starts a key three-game homestand here against a Buccaneers’ team that has won just once, and is 1-13 SU and 4-10 ATS in its last 14 tilts overall. Tampa Bay has gotten the better of the head-to-head series between these divisional rivals of late, offering a 12-5 SU and ATS in last 12 years, including 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS over the last two. Atlanta has not been double-digit chalk since 2005 and the favorite is 16-5-2 ATS in this series.

CAROLINA at NY JETS (-3.5, 41.5)1:00E FOX

Both the Panthers’ and Jets’ playoff hopes took a serious hit this past week, as losses dropped each team to 4-6 with six games left. It might take a miracle for both clubs, as their remaining schedules, particularly in late December, are loaded with quality opponents. It’s hard to believe that New York (4-6 ATS) was once 3-0 and headed to a showdown with New Orleans. Including that setback, the Jets have lost six of seven games, with the last three at home, all by five points or less. The Panthers (4-6 ATS) have gone the opposite direction by winning four of seven games since their 0-3 start. However, their home loss to the Dolphins 10 days ago was a killer. They are 0-2 SU and ATS vs. AFC foes in 2009 after going 4-0 ATS a year ago and 0-4 ATS in ’07. New York is on a 4-13 ATS slide vs. losing teams, while Carolina is 12-4-2 ATS as a road underdog of three or less.

JACKSONVILLE at SAN FRANCISCO (-3, 41.5) 4:05E CBS

The old saying indicates that if it quacks like a duck and walks like a duck, it must be a duck. Well, Jacksonville (4-6 ATS) doesn’t look like a playoff team, and is being outscored by opponents (19.9 to 23.5) while allowing 5.9 yards per play, yet if the postseason started today, the 6-4 Jaguars would be in. They begin a stretch of three straight games that could have a great bearing on their eventual fortunes. This game vs. San Francisco will be followed up by a three-game homestand, all vs. AFC playoff contenders. Consider today the Jags are 3-12 ATS when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. Head coach Jack Del Rio’s team is on a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS slide vs. NFC foes. The 49ers (6-2-2 ATS) dropped to 4-6 by losing at Green Bay, yet boast superior numbers in this matchup. The Niners are 6-1-2 ATS vs. teams with winning record. These squads have met twice previously, never in San Francisco. Both games went UNDER, with the 49ers totaling 12 points and they are 8-0 UNDER after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous contest.

KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO (-13.5, 45) 4:05E CBS

San Diego has completed the journey back to the top of the AFC West and will try to protect that lead when it hosts divisional rival Kansas City. The Chargers (5-5 ATS) are 7-3 and face only two remaining opponents boasting a winning record at this point. This will be the second meeting of ’09, with San Diego winning 37-7 win at Arrowhead in Week 7. That could be an important score since the Chiefs (3-7, 5-5 ATS) are on an 8-1 ATS run revenging a loss in which they scored 14 points or less. Kansas City has also played competitively on the road vs. AFC West rivals, covering four straight times against the number. Coach Norv Turner’s team is 0-2 ATS as a divisional host this season after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its previous five. Underdogs have gone 7-2 ATS in previous meetings of the series in San Diego, with the SU winner 24-5-2 ATS since 1994.


Written by Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.
Doug Upstone contributed to this article.