Elite Eight Saturday

After a 1-1 Friday, I found an exceptional NBA system; the only issue with it is the team chosen has a number of injuries, which diminishes its value in my opinion. I’ll throw out two perfect trends in the NBA on each end of the spectrum. The Left Coast Connection has its plays for the Elite Eight on Saturday. Good Luck.

3Daily Winners is #3 in the NBA at The Sports Eye and Free Sports Monitors.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off three or more consecutive road losses. This concise system is one of the better ones we’ve had lately at 24-3 ATS, 88.9 percent since 2004 and states to back Golden State.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Phoenix Suns are 0-11 ATS having won four of their last five games this season. The New York Knicks are 11-0 ATS this season when playing on the road in their third game in four days.

Free Basketball Selection -3) The LCC consensus has come up at just 4-4 the last two days. With over 90 percent of the tally, UConn has 9-2 edge (bets placed) and Pittsburgh 12-5.

A Distinct Big East Flavor in East Final

The Big East Conference tested the strong and the weak all season. Every team was required to play 18 games skin-on-skin confrontations, along with the conference tournament. The NCAA tournament committee has gone out of its way to have teams from the same conference not compete unless they should meet in the Final Four, but with the superior quality of the Big East this year, it became impossible to avoid such a situation should the teams arrive.

If No.1 Pittsburgh (31-4, 17-12 ATS) would emerge as national champions, nobody could say it was easy for the Panthers. They have been pushed to the final minutes in all three games and come in a less than intimidating top seed. Pitt doesn’t seem to have the emotional-fire ready, having not covered last four contests and just three of last nine. Any Pittsburgh backer will tell the tournament credo of “survive and advance” is being taken to ridiculous measures, for a team that is 30-15 ATS against teams that have 80 percent or higher win percentage.

At least the Panthers have the revenge card to play, having suffered one of their four losses at the hands of Villanova. In losing 67-57 in Philadelphia, coach Jamie Dixon’s squad was 3-16 from deep, on the way to shooting 40.7 percent and committing 17 turnovers. Pittsburgh is 22-12 ATS revenging a loss.

This is Villanova’s second trip to Elite Eight in four years and they appear more equipped to make first Final Four appearance since 1985, when they played the “perfect” game in upsetting Georgetown for the national title. These Wildcats (29-7, 18-14 ATS) and have tremendous balance. What makes Villanova so difficult to defend is they have seven players each capable of scoring 10 or more points. Dante Cunningham and Scottie Reynolds have to have their points, especially in big games, for the ‘Cats to be 10-2 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game this season.

Coach Jay Wright has his players focused on defense and rebounding and opposing teams are paying the price. Duke and UCLA did not have room to execute their halfcourt offenses and were crushed on the boards. In Villanova’s last four contests, they have outrebounded teams 170-119 and are 15-4 ATS after two straight games with an advantage of 10 or more on the glass.
Pittsburgh is a two-point favorite at Betjamaica.com, with total of 142. The first Elite Eight contest is also a 1vs3 matchup and it is worth following, as top seeds have won three in a row, by at least eight points. The total comes into affect on two levels, first, when these seeds have met in this round, the OVER is 7-2 and when the total is less than 145 points; the OVER is spectacular 20-6 ATS.

For Pittsburgh to make first Final Four since 1941, DeJuan Blair and company must stay out of foul trouble and the guards will have to handle the on the ball pressure better.

Villanova has to cause Panthers miscues and take the game right to Pittsburgh from the start. Though the Pitt players have not panicked when falling behind early in all their NCAA games, these ‘Cats are playing very well and far more talented than what they have seen.

No matter what, the Big East will have a representative out of the East region.

Connecticut on Familiar Path in West Regional

Almost two weeks ago when the tournament committee announced Connecticut was headed out West, Huskies fans immediately wondered if fate was setting up for another successful run to the NCAA championship game. After closing the season with two losses to Pittsburgh in the regular season finale and memorable six overtime game with Syracuse in the Big East tournament, a small cloud of doubt was growing larger about Connecticut. Now after three extremely impressive NCAA tournaments wins, talent and fate may be aligned for UConn.

In the 72-60 win over Purdue, Connecticut (30-4, 16-14 ATS) showed its versatility, even when everyone was not having their best game. Forward Jeff Adrien never came close to being a factor; however Stanley Robinson posted a double-double and helped limit the Boilermakers Robbie Hummel with his length.

A.J. Price started slowing for the Huskies, even as they built a significant early lead. Purdue made several runs, but each time senior Craig Austrie made several important baskets, ending up leading his team in scoring with 17 points. Lastly, the nation’s biggest difference-maker, Hasheem Thabeet, added 15 points, snared 15 boards and bothered Purdue countless times and UConn went to 7-1 ATS in road games after playing three consecutive games as favorite this season.

Missouri (31-6, 20-10 ATS) has lived up to what the state is known for (Show me state), showing locals and the country the Tigers were much better than advertised. Coach Mike Anderson’s club was picked around seventh in the Big 12 and instead has rolled off a school record 31 victories and reached the Elite Eight for the fourth time in the past 60 years. In upsetting Memphis, the Tigers “out-Memphised” their Tiger counterparts, making steals, running with abandon and taking the mental aspect to them. Just when you thought John Calipari would have Memphis drooling with anxiety to overcome 13-point halftime deficit, Missouri took it 24 points in the second half.

Missouri defensive pressure allows them to rattle good ball-handling teams and they are 16-4 ATS versus clubs committing 14 or less turnovers game this season. An overlooked aspect to the Tigers game is offensive execution. They average 81.6 points per game and led the nation with 18.5 assists per game during the regular season on the way to shooting 47.4 percent, just like Connecticut.

Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets have the Huskies as six-point favorites, with a total of 150. Connecticut has been protecting the ball and is 6-0 ATS after committing 14 or fewer turnovers in three consecutive games; however is just 7-21 ATS away from home after a trio of wins by 10 points or more. Missouri is up to 8-2 ATS in neutral court situations and 8-1 against the number if playing with one or less days rest.

Missouri will have to continue to push the ball and marginalize Thabeet’s presence. The Tigers will want to make Connecticut dribblers to break their press and will have to shore up defense in dribble penetration in the halfcourt as they become more fatigued, with Marquette and Memphis having late game success.

Connecticut has to control the glass and make Missouri be one-and-done on offense. Defensively, play assignments and let Thabeet clean up mistakes. The Tigers are superb at driving and kicking out passes for open shots and running off curl screens.

In this round top seeds 19-13 SU, though 12-18 ATS.

Friday Betting Action

In a rare odd day, we were 1-0, but it beats the alternative. I have more Left Coast Connection consensus plays about tonight’s tournament, with interesting results. Kansas makes the Top Trend with perfect 11-0 record and today’s Best System is 82.1 percent looking at a NBA totals action. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY OVER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Oklahoma City in this case) after two or more consecutive Unders, in a game involving two average offensive teams (92-98 points per game). This totals system is a sleek 32-7, 82.1 percent and a perfect 4-0 this year.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Kansas is 11-0 ATS versus good defensive teams shooting percentage defense of 42 percent or less after 15 or more games this season.

Free Basketball Selections -3) After a 2-2 Thursday, this is how the LCC sees the other half of the Sweet 16. Louisville 6-5 (bets placed), Gonzaga 9-4, Syracuse 16-5, Michigan State 14-4.

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Guards to Seal Bettors Fate in South Regional

In big time collegiate basketball, having stellar guard play is an absolute must. To reach the highest levels like the Sweet 16, it helps to have two terrific guards or one with some very good complimentary ones coming off the bench. With all four top seeds advancing in the South, how each teams backcourt performs will determine what teams play Sunday and who goes back home wondering about what if.

North Carolina (30-4, 14-19 ATS) is the top seed in the South and the Ty Lawson importance was again realized by Tar Heels fans. Lawson finally was able to play in a game, starting against LSU. During the first half, Lawson jammed his delicate toe and hobbled to the bench. Taking off his shoe and sock, it appeared to everyone in Greensboro and on television he was done. As to turned out, it was temporary and Lawson later engineered a North Carolina turnaround after LSU had stormed to the lead in the second half and helped deliver the knockout punch the put the Tigers.

Lawson’s breathtaking speed ratchets the pressure on opposing teams and his fearlessness to take the ball to the hole and convert while being fouled, fuels the Tar Heels. His ability to help create steals is a reason why North Carolina is 11-1 ATS off two straight games where they had 10 or more steals. Having Wayne Ellington as running mate brings a smile to Lawson’s and Roy Williams face. Ellington made several crucial shots in totaling 23 points in last contest and he will be needed to repeat the same performance against talent-laden Gonzaga squad that is 8-1 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots a game.

The Bulldogs (28-5, 15-15 ATS) are riding 11-game winning streak, thanks to two hard fought tournament games. Coach Mark Few wants the ball in the hands of Matt Bouldin, with Jeremy Pargo also doing his share of ball-handling. Bouldin is not only a solid all-around scorer, but is a clever passer. Pargo has not a great senior season, yet has elevated play with less responsibility and he is quick and smart enough to play with Lawson.

Bookmaker.com has North Carolina as 8.5-point favorites with the total now up two points to 162. Though the Tar Heels love the 94-foot game, Gonzaga is 9-0 ATS when the total is over 160 and they will hope Josh Heytvelt has his jumper ready, since he has the ability to pull Tyler Hansbrough 15-20 feet away from the basket. The Zags have no chance if they allow over 50 percent shooting like they did to Western Kentucky in escaping with last second win. The Tar Heels are too talented and wise if they get open looks and 16-5 ATS versus teams surrendering 64 or less points a game.

In the other South encounter, Syracuse (28-9, 19-14 ATS) has a three-headed guard monster that is frightening. Johnny Flynn is a blur with the rock, being the best guard in the tournament and arguably in the country approaching three weeks. Eric Devendorf can drop three’s and smack-talk with the best in college basketball and Andy Rautins can scorch the nylon when dialed in.

Coach Jim Boeheim’s team was supposed to be worn out after logging countless minutes in the Big East tournament; instead they raised their record to 9-1 ATS since late February and are sizzling despite having little depth.

Oklahoma (29-5, 16-13 ATS) will look to counter the Orangemen’s productivity with the best player in college basketball, Blake Griffin. Though the 6’10 sophomore can take over games, the Sooners are not a one man band. Guard Willie Warren showed his immense potential when Griffin was out, being Oklahoma’s go-to player. He appears to acquiesce when Griffin is on the floor, but he will have to be a main cog to help his team to score with Syracuse.
Because the Orangemen play their 2-3 zone, this means Warren and Tony Crocker have to hit jump shots to help their stud find more room to maneuver. If not, it’s back to Norman and next year’s team will have a vastly different look.

Oklahoma is listed as one-point pick with total having sunk to 152. The Sooners have covered five of last seven when favored by 6.5 or less points, while Syracuse is 22-10 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick.

When making selections in the South region, it’s best to keep your guard up.

Hockey Teams to Bet For or Against

With less than 10 games left in the regular season, NHL teams are battling for playoff positions with fervor. Not all teams are being successful, while others are thriving; making their case they belong in the post-season. Here is what clubs to look for over the next couple of weeks for wagering purposes.

San Jose and Detroit are neck and neck for the best record in the NHL. The Sharks coach Todd McLellan and front office has real dilemma about what to do. Currently, San Jose has eight players injured. Do they try and rest these players to be as ready as possible and sacrifice home ice advantage to Detroit to get healthier or go full throttle and hope they don’t lose these players for a longer period? The schedule is rather favorable for the Sharks, with toughest games against Anaheim and Calgary. Watch the prices on San Jose and play on them, when comfortable.

With Detroit having won seven of last 10, they only have two road games remaining and are in great position to win the Presidents' Trophy (Best overall record). The Red Wings are 26-9 at home and are hoping either goalie Chris Osgood or Ty Conklin comes up big as postseason arrives. Detroit is much like the New York Yankees, meaning large money lines and when losses occur that can take a week to make up for. Still, with the Red Wings at Joe Louis Arena, hard to not play them.

Quack, quack, that’s right the Anaheim Ducks are making noise having won six of last seven and for the moment are in the Western playoffs. The Ducks picked a swell time to play well and if they can keep it moving, they’ll make the postseason again. Standing in their way is a formidable group, which includes a pair of home and home contests with San Jose and Edmonton, who have their own motivation.

Carolina and Pittsburgh are flying to the finish, winners of seven of last 10 games. Each club has their sights set on passing Philadelphia, for the coveted home ice in the first round of the playoffs. The Hurricanes will play four of remaining six games at home, in arguably the loudest building in the NHL, where they have won nine in a row. The only issue is with the road games, both are at New Jersey.

Pittsburgh is starting to look like the team that went to the Stanley Cup a year ago, which suggests the Eastern Conference is in a whole lot of trouble. The Penguins have all their top level players healthy and playing to capabilities. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has been scintillating between the pipes. Fleury is 20-10-4 with three shutouts dating to New Year's Day. He has allowed two or fewer goals over at least 60 minutes in 17 of those games. It’s a pretty good bet Pittsburgh is for real.

Montreal is 10-15 since February began and looks like they are in turmoil. The ownership group is bleeding money and wants to sell the storied franchise. The Canadiens are barely hanging on in the East to final playoff slot, which is attributed to defense that is 11th on goals allowed in the conference. After playing next two games at home, Montreal will be on the road four of next five and closes the season back on home ice with Pittsburgh. The Canadiens are fortunate all the other teams fighting for last playoff position are playing as bad or worse than they are, thus they might sneak, but I wouldn’t want to bet on it.

Favorites on Collision Course in Midwest?

In downtown Indianapolis, most people there and around the country are expecting a battle of the top two seeds Sunday afternoon. Both Louisville and Michigan State were challenged in the second round and each passed at crunch time to advance. In order for them to hook-up, the Cardinals and Spartans must navigate a treacherous foe that could destroy what many people was an inevitable matchup.

(1) Louisville vs (12) Arizona

Despite being the overall number one seed and holder of a dozen straight wins, coach Rick Pitino saw disturbing trends very similar to what plagued his squad in December. Louisville mastered Morehead State 74-54 as 21.5-point favorites, however led by just two at the half. The Cardinals built significant leads over Siena a couple of times, yet flittered away both and they didn’t put away the Saints until the last few possessions.

Earl Clark and Samardo Samuels have been like the stock market in recent weeks, up one day and down the next. Only Terrence Williams has been consistent and he has been brilliant in leading his team. Preston Knowles and Andre McGee must do a better job shooting the ball, not settling for three-point shots like they did in the first two games. This pair has to be more aggressive in getting to the basket, which could open up teammates for better shots. Louisville (30-5, 21-14 ATS) has to be prepared to start fast and is 21-10 ATS having won 12 or more of their last 15 games.

If the Cards take their time, they could be chasing Arizona (21-13, 19-14-1 ATS) all day. The Wildcats have three exceptionally talented players and this trio has started fast in both victories. Guard Nic Wise and pushed the ball at every opportunity, Chase Budinger has made long shots as expected, but has attacked the rim like LeBron James with big-time flushes that have kept his teammates fired up. Center Jordan Hill has picked his spots, scoring when called upon and having a number of nice assists.

Arizona is playing with a real hunger and being the 12th seed is just having fun. Betjamica.com has the ‘Cats on the receiving end of nine-points, with the total having risen to 139. They are 22-12 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight or more points a game.

Should Louisville be trusted, history suggests maybe, as favorites of seven or more points are 29-1 SU with .500 spread record in the round of Sweet 16. A 12th seed has never beaten a No.1 in 15 prior meetings and is 6-9 ATS.

(2) Kansas vs (2) Michigan State

This Midwestern matchup is a revenge game for Kansas, who lost to Michigan State 75-62 as 6.5-point road underdogs on January 10. The Jayhawks (27-7, 20-8-1 ATS) have grown as the young players matured and become more reliable. The two rocks have to be guard Sherron Collins and center Cole Aldrich. The Kansas point guard can get hotter than soup left in the microwave too long and blister opposing teams. His stocky build allows him to get to the rim the same as a much taller player. Aldrich continually works on all aspects of his game and is going to make a very nice living at the next level.

Bill Self’s club has been able to stay under the radar all season, with oddsmakers never quite figuring them out. They have won and covered both games in the tournament; including demolishing Dayton 60-43 and they are 8-2 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.
With Kansas a much better team than what Michigan State (28-6, 17-13-1 ATS) saw previously, the Spartans are different also. Kalin Lucas was just hitting his stride and improved dramatically to be named Big Ten player of the year. Goran Suton was still rounding into form from injury and though he had a poor shooting game against USC, he was a huge part in the Trojans Taj Gibson being a non-factor in last contest. Raymar Morgan isn’t all the way back from mono, however more glimpses are shown each game of him coming back for a Spartans team that is 12-4 ATS when playing on a neutral court over the last two seasons.

This 2 vs 3 contest opened as a Pick, with bettors making Michigan State a 1.5-point favorite. Two seeds are 19-9 in these matchups, covering 16 times. Michigan State is 28-3 and 15-12-1 ATS when winning the battle on the glass, and if they neutralize Aldrich, the Spartans should be great position to triumph.

Don’t look for this to be a white elephant, with two very well coached teams.


Sweet 16 Starts Soon

A pedestrian 2-2 day, with New Jersey ending up closer to Cleveland than expected. Today’s Top Trend has two facets to the same game in the NBA this evening. With about 90 percent of the LCC plays in, I shared with you how they bet tonight’s Sweet 16 contests. Though I searched, I just didn’t find any systems in any sports that were very good. One hockey system was as good as yesterday’s, however is just 5-5 this season, thus I passed. Good Luck.

If you noticed the CBB system I posted on Tuesday that was incorrect, was 2-0 yesterday.

Free System-1) No Systems today worth mentioning.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Portland is 11-2 ATS in home games after two consecutive games as favorite this season and Phoenix is 0-8 ATS playing on Thursday’s.

Free Basketball Selections -3) Here is the breakdown from the Left Coast Connection on tonight’s Sweet 16 action. Memphis 9-1 (bets placed on what teams) Pittsburgh 5-0, UConn 11-4, Villanova 9-3.

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Are Favorites in Peril in East Regional?

Most of the NCAA Tournament has progressed along as expected. The East region is one of two brackets that have seen all four top seeds march to the round of Sweet 16, as predicted. The top two seeds, Pittsburgh and Duke, have seen more trepidation than expected, making them potential upset victims as we head into the next round of action.

Pittsburgh (30-4, 17-11 ATS) is particular has looked inept. The earlier passion, has given way to indifference for better than 30 minutes in each contest thus far in the tournament. They have shown an inability to rise up defensively, allowing opponents to do what they do best. In the East Tennessee State non-cover, Pitt allowed them to play at their pace and the Buccaneers took 20 more shots than Panthers, giving them chances to stay in the game. In the win over Oklahoma State, they did a poor job of defending the perimeter against the Cowboys long-range shooting and gave up far too many unimpeded trips to the bucket.

Maybe the gravity of the situation will finally hit Pittsburgh, who is 11-4 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight points a game this season. One aspect in the Panthers favor is Xavier plays more traditional style instead of helter-skelter. The Musketeers (27-7, 19-12-1 ATS) are now an established Top 20 program and are in the Sweet 16 for the third time in five seasons. Under coach Sean Miller, Xavier plays smart basketball and is 12-3 ATS after four straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.

Xavier is a seven-point underdog at Bookmaker.com, with a total of 138.5 and is 10-2 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 135 to 139.5. Jason Love is off a pair of ineffective outings and has to produce against the beefy Pittsburgh front line.

Guard Jermaine Dixon has to help out his teammates more than 1-7 effort thus far. Fortunately, Levance Fields has been hitting shots or Pitt would have no outside game. Four seeds are meager 4-13 in this round, but are nearly 50-50 wager at 8-9 ATS.

Duke (30-6, 16-17-2 ATS) players deserve a lot of credit, finding ways to win games. The Blue Devils have won 10 of last 11 and though they might not be the apple of the bettor’s eye with 5-5-1 ATS mark, you have to admire their courage in challenging situations. Gerald Henderson and Kyle Singler have been players that bring moisture to Dick Vitale’s eyes; however can a team really advance to Elite Eight with almost no inside presence, even with 16-6 ATS record off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite?

Villanova (28-7, 17-14 ATS) presents different demands on Duke. The Wildcats thrive when Scottie Reynolds is sharp, however they are dominate when he and Dante Cunningham are working together. Cunningham is the team's main man on the inside, both scoring and on the boards and where Coach K finds an answer to stop him will ultimately be the deciding factor. Villanova has been glass-eaters in the tournament and are 14-4 ATS after two games outrebounding opponents by 10 or more.

Duke is favored by two-points, with 148 total and they are 6-16 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 145 to 149.5. Villanova has shown a proclivity to play with high scoring teams and is 9-2 ATS versus clubs scoring 77 or points a game this season. Found this little nugget, ACC teams are 12-2 UNDER in the Sweet 16.

Underdogs Bring Right Stuff for West Regional

Connecticut and Memphis were devastating in three of the four of their games in the opening two rounds. The Huskies toyed with Chattanooga and Texas A&M, which led many to wonder how good would UConn be right today if Jerome Dyson was available. Memphis lolly-gagged with CS-Northridge in the opener, but came with a purpose and mauled Maryland 89-70 in a game that wasn’t that close. If these two top seeds are really on a collision course, they will have to match wits with teams that have many of the right aspects to take down the higher seeds.

Connecticut (29-4, 15-14 ATS) was believed to be the second best team in the country back in early November and they have done very little to change that opinion. Jim Calhoun’s bunch isn’t always the best team to wager on, however have a steady 8-2 ATS away from home record off two games as a favorite. In their losses to Georgetown, Pittsburgh (2) and Syracuse, the theme is consistent. You have to attack Hasheem Thabeet, trying to get him in foul trouble, score in the paint and make outside shots.

This isn’t designing a new way to play basketball, however it is how you beat the Huskies. Center JaJaun Johnson of Purdue (27-9, 16-17 ATS) has the size to go at Thabeet and runs the floor as well as any big man in college basketball. Johnson has been a threat in running the secondary break, scoring on a number of thunderous dunks. He’ll try to make the Connecticut center pick up quick fouls, which opens up the lane. The Boilermakers fought injuries most of the year, but the return of Robbie Hummel placed everyone back in normal spots. Hummel can shoot deep or drive to the cup, creating more options for guards E'Twaun Moore and Chris Kramer.

Connecticut has very few fouls called on them and Purdue has not been bothered by teams like this in the past with 26-14 ATS record versus clubs who are called for 17 or less fouls a game. The Boilers are receiving 6.5-points as underdogs, with a total of 134.5. The Huskies are 3-13 ATS in road games after two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more, while Matt Painter’s troops are 17-5 ATS after being an underdog.

In the round of 16, favorites of six points or more are 28-2 SU covering 60 percent of the time.
A question was raised by Digger Phelps the night the brackets were announced and he made mention of Missouri (30-6, 19-10 ATS) being a threat to Memphis (33-3, 22-12-1 ATS), since pressing teams don’t like to face pressing teams. The first thought was wouldn’t the same be true of Missouri taking on the Memphis press?

In this battle of Tigers, Missouri has to overcome the moment. This is Memphis’ fourth straight Sweet 16, which includes three Elite 8’s and a national championship appearance. Missouri’s task is to keep poise and not be fearful of 8-0 run, since they are equally as capable of returning the favor. Misso’s job on defense is to limit Tyreke Evans dribble penetration on offense. The Northridge zone stifled him, look for change-up defenses from coach Mike Anderson. Missouri has won and covered five in a row and showed gumption in holding on to defeat Marquette.

On offense, DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons might have more opportunities than they thought after watching film. The two Memphis tourney opponents shot 44.4 and 43.5 percent; hardly intimidating figures and both opponents took it right to the rim when they had numbers, which is Missouri’s style.

Memphis coach John Calipari likes to sell himself off as the Al Bundy of college basketball, falling into situations as much as making them happen. To his credit, he spreads the praise around and seniors Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier have 13 NCAA tournament wins in their four years. What this Tigers team has shown is the ability to do is go for the throat. If they are mentally ready, Memphis will start fast and once they see the opening to finish, they close better than a top-notch Lexus salesperson.

The Tigers from Tennessee are 4.5-point favorites according to Bookmaker.com and teams favored by less than six points in the Sweet 16 only cover about a third of the time.

Time to get over the Hump Wednesday

I admit it, I was shocked Auburn lost to Baylor at home and our system failed. (I have the wagering account to prove it) That very same system is in play tonight and is against Kentucky. I know not many of you are big hockey bettors, but this one system is intriguing, since the ones in other sports were weak. The Nets travel to Cleveland as big underdogs, how might they do, read on. Jason of the LCC is feeling confident and offers two Free Plays. Good Luck.

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY AGAINST an underdog against the money line like Florida, after two or more consecutive losses, against opponent (Buffalo in this case) after three or more consecutive losses. What caught my eye about this system is the quality winning percentage based on the volume of games. 182-63, 74.3 percent over 12 years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The New Jersey Nets are 1-12 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last two seasons, losing by an average of 19.6 points per game.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Jason has hit a nice run in betting sports, with 16-6 mark and has two plays he likes equally as well. They are Dallas and Stanford tonight.

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Extra Large Eastern Confrontation in Orlando

The time has arrived and its crunch time for Boston. Not in the manner the defending kings of the NBA has envisioned, competing for the best record in the NBA, which helped them win the title last season. This is different, playing for the second seed in the Eastern Conference, since they have about as much a chance of catching front-running Cleveland as Rush Limbaugh doing a live interview on MSNBC.

The Celtics and Orlando have 18 defeats, thou the Magic have played two fewer games, which could work to Boston advantage should they lose. The Celtics are attempting to reinsert Kevin Garnett back into the starting line-up at his regular minutes. Though Garnett has yet to play 20 minutes in a game since returning, the Celtics have won all three games (2-1 ATS) upon his return after producing 7-6 and miserable 3-10 ATS record while he was away.

"We have such a great chemistry when our starting five is out there," Celtics forward Paul Pierce said after defeating the Clippers 90-77 Monday. "We don't like him on the bench. We like him on the floor."

Though coach Doc Rivers squad is 38-23 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 2007, injuries have robbed them of depth and useful minutes off the bench. Workhorse Leon Powe is out with a knee strain. Tony Allen hasn't played since Feb. 11 after injuring his left thumb and his exact return is in doubt for the remainder of the regular season. Rajon Rondo, Glen Davis and Brian Scalabrine have all spent time in the trainer’s room of late.
Being able to muster the courage and resolve against an equally beat-up San Antonio team last week for a win, showed what this team’s soul is made of, however taking on a young and up and coming team seeking to dethrone the king is another adventure. Orlando is 27-7 and 20-14 ATS at the Amway Arena and knows this is big.

"There is a lot on the line," said Magic point guard Rafer Alston. "We'd better be prepared for battle."

The Magic understand the road to NBA Finals still goes thru Boston. Being this late in the season, the results are magnified and Orlando is in a mild scheduling disadvantage. After tonight, the Magic have to play five of last 11 contests on the road, which hasn’t been a conundrum having the second best road record at 25-11 (25-11 ATS). Why Stan Van Gundy’s team can’t let opportunity slip away is only three of the Celtics remaining nine contests are away from TD BankNorth Garden.

Two games against New York hardly prepares a team for a defensive struggle, yet that is what is in store for the Magic. Orlando has to be ready for possession by possession basketball and is 16-3 ATS versus good shooting teams making 46 or more percent of their shots this season.

The oddsmakers at Bookmaker.com have the Magic as 3.5-point favorites, with the drifting to 191. Orlando is 15-5 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more for two straight games and 9-1 UNDER breaking the century mark in points scored three consecutive contests. Boston does get to play the underdog role often and is 12-3 ATS as a pooch of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Celtics are 10-1 UNDER in road games off a home win by 10 points or more this season.

ESPN will broadcast this influential affair starting at 8 Eastern, with Orlando having won four of last five at home, with three covers.

Betting On Kentucky and Notre Dame, Just Like the Old Days

About a hundred years ago when Digger Phelps was famous for being Notre Dame’s basketball coach and Joe B. Hall was living with the daily pressure of being the coach replacing legendary Adolph Rupp in Kentucky, the Fighting Irish and the Wildcats meant something. Big Blue almost always beat Notre Dame, but it was rare opportunity for fans of the South Bend University to be in a true underdog role, since the football team was national power and basketball team was annually Top 20 material. (I said it was a hundred years ago)

Back in those days, no cell phones, no texting and no online betting, just call your man at the prescribed time and ask for the numbers about the games you were interested in. If he had a hint you liked or disliked a certain team from previous conversations, add or subtract two to three points to what side you wanted and if you complained, he would say, “Hey everybody is betting your side, I got to move the number to balance the action.”

That was a long time ago, now Kentucky and Notre Dame are not basketball powers, they are playing in the quarterfinals of the NIT, with the winner advancing to New York next week for semi-finals. With these schools, the chant “We’re No. 66” doesn’t hold the same value as making the NCAA Tournament.

Though coaches Mike Brey and Billy Gillespie are finding the seats they place their posterior a little warmer these days, the reality is this is where their teams are, so might as well win what’s available as opposed to nothing at all.

Betjamica.com has Notre Dame as shaky 2.5-point favorites, with a rising total of 144.5. The Irish are 14-3 and 5-7 ATS at the Joyce Center. Though they have recognizable faces like Luke Harangody and Kyle McAlarney, this Notre Dame team has been on everyone’s short list of fade teams. While it is true the Blue and Gold have beaten three Top 10 teams, they are 8-15 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Notre Dame has won two tight games in the NIT and should expect another against Kentucky, who is 9-7 and 9-6 ATS on the road.

Coach Gillespie stated this week he doesn’t have time to worry about people calling for his ouster in Lexington; however that is like saying the people who received bonuses from AIG don’t feel like they are under scrutiny. Gillespie happens to be the coach that watched a streak of 17 consecutive seasons of playing in the NCAA Tournament snapped at Kentucky.

The Wildcats has two future NBA players in Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson, with the rest of players more resembling the guys from the Alltel commercials. Most of Kentucky’s betting success comes from prior years like 47-28 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997. (2-3 ATS this season) At least they have covered their last four non-conference games and have owned the Irish with 4-0 SU and ATS record over the last dozen seasons.

ESPN2 has the coverage starting at 7 Eastern, with the winner facing Penn State next week at Madison Square Garden.

3Daily Winners for a Tuesday

I think a few months ago I stated, some days you are the bug and other days you are the windshield, which sums up the last two days at 3Daily Winners. We’ll look to turn right around starting with a NHL angle that is flat perfect. Though only two NIT games are available, one gives an outstanding 27-5 ATS system play. The Free play has arrived with player on a hot streak. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like Baylor, where the line is +3 to -3, off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off two or more consecutive home wins. This sassy system is 27-5 ATS, 84.4 percent since 2004.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Minnesota Wild are 0-8 against the money line in road games after two straight games where four or fewer total goals were scored this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Marty of the LCC is 14-5 in all college postseason tournaments, including hitting his last eight in a row. He's on Florida at home tonight.

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Fantasy Baseball: Hall of Fame style

As the NBA and NCAA basketball seasons draw closer to conclusions, I caught myself musing over pitchers and catchers, spring training and the boys of summer.

I began to speculate about how many more millions of dollars the damn Yankees will spend before (and during) the season to ensure a trip back to the postseason after missing out for the first time in 13 consecutive trips last year. My mind then drifted to my Texas Rangers and if they will ever emerge from the pitching abyss that has plagued the club for so long.

Then fantasy baseball entered the brain and in a cross-pollination (this happens in my head all the time) with offseason baseball events, I fell into a deep trance pondering what kind of fantasy players this year's Hall of Fame inductees Jim Rice and Rickey Henderson would have been and who they most resemble among active players.

I'm sure some of you have even played in fantasy leagues where you drafted Rickey or maybe even Rice. Probably have to go back to the days of the Strat-O-Matic baseball game to find any takers there.

Breaking down Jim Rice as a fantasy player is tougher for me since I was in first grade when he retired in 1989. But luckily statistics, accolades and analyses are available in every Google search and Wikipedia bio so I have a decent sense of what he could do.

It seems he was the consummate player, serviceable in the outfield with the ability to hit for average, power and production at the plate. When I think of someone on a current roster that contains this skill set the first player that comes to mind is Vladimir Guerrero.

Sure Vladdy is aging some and his numbers have dropped off a bit over the last few seasons, but the guy still bangs out a .300 average every year with 25+ bombs and 100+ RBIs. During Rice's prime, he consistently hovered between the .280 and .320 mark in average, and while Guerrero possesses a little more pop in his bat (what hitter doesn't these days), the former BoSock posted 100 or more RBIs in eight of his 16 seasons and had seven campaigns with 25 or more round trippers.

Both of these free-swinging hitters did not like a free ride to first base either. I expected Rice to be more selective that Guerrero (who embides the Dominican hitting philosophy - if it is white and coming at you then hit it), but when I checked out each's base on balls numbers was surprised at my discovery.

Rice's career-high for walks in a season was 62 and Vlad's is 84, and at this point in his career Guerrero has four fewer walks than Rice's total of 670. And with Vladdy being able to hit any pitch from his shoelaces to his helmet, it only makes sense that he's struck out 400 times less than his comparitive.

The two players awards comparison is eerily similar also. Albeit in three less seasons, Guerrero is an eight-time All-Star and was crowned with one AL MVP, the exact same accomplishments Rice attained.

With all that being said, Jim Rice was definitely a second to fourth round must have in any fantasy baseball format. He may have hurt you a little bit with his strikeout numbers but looks to have been a solid fantasy performer.

Ample amuse has surrounded Rickey Henderson throughout his professional career but not for his ball-playing abilities. He was one of the most talented athletes, not just pure players, to ever grace the ballfield. It is very difficult to compare Henderson to a modern day player due to his career longevity (25 seasons) and production so I have attempted to find the next potential Rickey.

This guy could do it all. Henderson racked up stolen bases, walks, run, hits, and was a respected outfielder who could cover ground and keep runners honest with an accurate arm.

A player that comes to mind that possesses most of these qualities now and will improve upon them in the future is Tampa Bay's B.J. Upton. He had 44 base thefts in his second full season last year.

Neither of these guys hit the long bomb consistently. Upton got hot in the 2008 postseason (7 HRs in 16 games) but he had only nine jacks the entire season which was a major drop off (and probably a sign of things to come) from his 24 in '07. I wouldn't expect Upton to ever eclipse Rickey's career-high of 28 dingers which he did twice.

Henderson did draw a lot more walks and struck out significantly less that Upton does so he probably won't ever be as quality of a fantasy phenom as Rickey. The 24-year old also has somewhat of an attitude problem, which Rickey was not completely void of, but his was more of a me, me, me complex. Upton's is almost like a Randy Moss syndrome where he will give maximum effort when and where he feels like it. Something that prompted manager Joe Madden to bench Upton in a few games down the stretch last season to let him know he isn't above the team.

The 130 steals Henderson amassed in 1982 was unworldly. I think the steals leader in my rotisserie league last season didn't have 100 steals from his entire team! So if you took Rickey early in the draft, you would almost undoubtedly wrap up the steals category each and every week.

Upton isn't a first few rounds type of fantasy player, yet. He is still young and much of his immaturity can be attributed to that, but this guy, along with many of the Rays' fresh faces, is a player to build a franchise around.

Before I let you go, I have to rekindle a few of Henderson's antics from his beloved spotlight in the media. He will always be remembered for his candid Rickey references, and I think you might be able to find an over/under prop bet in Vegas on how many times he will refer to himself in the third person during his Hall of Fame speech.

I came across a posting last week that was entitled, "Rickey's Top 25 Moments" and wanted to leave you with a few of my favorites:

- A reporter asked Henderson if Ken Caminiti's estimate that 50 percent of Major League players were taking steroids was accurate, his response was, "Well, Rickey's not one of them, so that's 49 percent right there."

- Rickey was asked if he had the Garth Brooks album with the song Friends in Low Places and Henderson said, "Rickey doesn't have albums. Rickey has CDs."

- When he was on the Yankees in the mid-80's, Henderson told teammates that his condo had such a great view that he could see, "The Entire State Building."


Scott Cooley has Cooley's Contemplations flying around the net and is a contributing writer to Bootleg.com.

NCAA Tourney Changing, Somewhat for the Better (Bettor)

It was an eventful first four days of the men’s basketball tourney and it is readily apparent things are in the process of change. When a team like Arizona, who has been to the tournament as often as a sunny day in Tucson, is the Cinderella story, well you can see the landscape is changing. The charm of big time upsets and unnatural storylines is giving way to the “chalk” ruling tournaments.

The NCAA Tournament is the only of its kind where the beginning of the post-season is more anticipated than the end. Do millions of people fill out Wild Card weekend brackets in the NFL or wait for the Super Bowl. The start of the NBA playoffs is met with the excitement of “Samantha Who” returning to airwaves. (If you don’t what that show is, the line is on the left) The Baseball and Hockey playoffs, be serious, unless you are big fan of either sport.

What we are left with isn’t so bad, as the matchups could hardly be more intriguing and whoever ends up being national champion, will not have any easy games left on the docket. It just points to the selection committee doing there jobs with excellence.

The Big East had five of their seven picked teams make the Sweet 16, setting up the possibility of East Regional final between top seeded Pittsburgh and Villanova. The Panthers were the shakiest team to advance, playing two rather emotionless affairs, while coming away victorious. Regular and post-season champion Louisville was pushed by Siena, which might be a good thing for the Cardinals. Overall the Big East stands at 11-2 and 6-7 ATS.

The Big 12 validated themselves as a strong conference that was probably a little underrated with 8-3 showing and having three teams advance. The Big 12 was tremendous 11-1 against the spread.

The ACC was trying to convince others in January that its conference was every bit as good as the Big East. Not many were buying, feeling the elite teams where as good as any other league, just not the whole contingent. This was proven with North Carolina and Duke making this round. The ACC didn’t show well with .500 record and paltry 3-6-1 ATS record.

There are those that felt the Big Ten was surprise this season, being better than anticipated, however the tournament has shown the league to be slighting above average with Michigan State and Purdue advancing. Collectively, the Big Ten is 6-5 and 4-7 ATS.

This was supposed to be mildly down year for the Pac-10, but after the first round, opinions were about to change with first round record of 5-1 and 4-2 ATS mark. Then the reality of stiffer competition set in and only the presumed last team invited, Arizona, had what it took to move on and the Pac-10 is 6-5 and 5-6 ATS at present.

The SEC was ridiculed all season and was quietly dispatched with 1-3 SU and ATS record and doesn’t have a team in the Sweet 16 for the first time in two decades.

Other Betting Notes:

In the first round, the higher seed was 21-11 with an undesirable 10-21-1 ATS record. When you include the play-in game, favorites were 22-11 and 11-21-1 ATS.

The second round brought quick and abrupt change for higher seeds and favorites, with 15-1 and 12-4 against the spread record.

In the opening round, the Over did slightly better with 18-15 mark, which was followed up by dominating 12-4 Over record on the weekend.

All top three seeds advanced to next round with 18-0 record and were 10-7-1 ATS.

The at-large teams, who in many cases were going to be in the tournament, just didn’t have the automatic bid, were 18-6 and 14-10 ATS when not matched against a team with the same credentials.

All teams that won the regular season title and not playing a team that did the same were 7-8 and 8-7 ATS.

After being a strong play in the second round, No.10 seeds were 0-3 SU and ATS.

Observations:

The Michigan State and USC contest was like watching an Elite Eight contest, based on the skill of the players and intensity.

Duke might be done, since their days of being a dominant team in this event are over, unless they find a big man, like the Christian Laettner and Cherokee Parks days. I’ve heard the reason Coach K can’t land a top big man is all of the coaches were guards and today’s players want to make move to get to NBA and want coaches who can develop their skills.

I wonder what St. Mary’s was thinking watching Arizona advance.

Watching Pac-10 player of the year James Hardin, brought to mind, Where’s Waldo?

Not sure what CBS needs to do, but their analyst line-up is no longer compelling. Everyone likes different aspects and Bill Raftery and Bob Wenzel make strong observations and will speculate along with having charm. Mike Giminski, Jim Spanarkle, Len Elmore and Dan Bonner are all competent, you just never learn anything.

Jay Bilas is the best of all the newer analysts over the last couple of years; however his unbelievably frequent use of the term “ball screen” is past the point of being over done.

While many people didn’t like Billy Packer for any number of his faults, he had a keen eye of observation and was able to pick out nuisances of what was happening on the floor. Clark Kellogg has been garden variety for a lead announcer and resembles one of his often quirky phrases. “Like a screen-saver, lots of activity, just not much gets done.”

Seeking more Perfection on Monday

A super way to close the week with 3-0 mark and we’ll stay in the hunt for more later today. We have a top quality NBA system that is 80 percent and looks in on a game out west. The perfect trend examines one of the most storied programs in college basketball and the results have not been pretty. Today’s Free Play is now available. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON favorites like Phoenix off consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, against opponent off a home win scoring 110 or more points. This NBA system has moved up to 80 percent with 32-8 ATS record, thanks to 2-0 mark this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Kentucky Wildcats are 0-8 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by eight or more points a game, after participating in 15 or more contests this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Slick Rick had a winner yesterday and prefers Wichita State at home tonight.

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NIT has Quality Contest for Bettors Attention

Normally, the early rounds of the NIT are about as anticipated as another episode of “Chuck “on NBC. That changes this year, at least for one game, when Davidson travels to Moraga, CA. to take on St. Mary’s in the second round no less of the National Invitational Tournament.

What has caused the uproar of having the 3,500 seat McKeon Pavilion sold out in the fastest time ever in school history, well, just like in the days of the Old West, a hotshot gunslinger is coming to town and plain folks want to see what he has and the locals want to see how he holds up against their guy, who’s returning to form after being wounded.

Davidson (27-7, 14-16-2 ATS) has Stephen Curry who took the Wildcats within one late missed three-point shot of being one of the biggest surprise Final Four teams in years, losing to eventual champion Kansas in the Elite Eight. Davidson was upset by College of Charleston in the Southern Conference tournament semi-finals, which relegated them to the NIT this season. The Wildcats simply are not as good as last year’s squad, but have continued to show to be a wise road wager since Curry stepped on campus with a 29-11-1 ATS record as visitors.

St. Mary’s (27-6, 17-12 ATS) is excited about the opportunity to play in nationally recognized contest, yet you know they believe it would be them, not Arizona, in the Sweet 16 if they would have been given the chance. The Patty Mills injury and subsequent play sent the Gaels in this direction and the best thing they can do is win the tournament to prove their point.

St. Mary’s is 8-2 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game this season and Mills looks to be at or near full strength, scoring 27 points against Washington State in NIT opener. Curry laid 32 on South Carolina, his 15th game of 30 or more this season, and relishes the competition.

“It's beyond just me and him (Mills) out there playing, “Curry said. “ I'm just excited to go out there and play and take on a new, different opponent."

While both schools easily score in the 70’s, the coaches will stress defense. Davidson holds opposing teams to 39.6 percent shooting and is 15-4 and 9-8 ATS on the road. St. Mary’s isn’t quite as good at 41.3 percent, nonetheless holds opponents to fewer points at 63.8 points per game, compared to the Wildcats 65.5.

Davidson is a four-point underdog at Bookmaker.com, with a total of 143, which is a role they have embraced, posting 11-1 ATS record as an underdog over the last two seasons. St. Mary’s is 14-1 and 6-6 ATS at home and is 7-1 against the number when a favorite or underdog of 10 or less points on home floor.

"The Steph-Patty Mills matchup, everyone is talking about it," Davidson forward Steve Rossiter said. "I just got to make sure I don't get caught watching during the game."

ESPN2 hopes people are interested enough to want to check out the action, though the 11:30 Eastern time slot might be arduous for those in the East and Midwest. Keep in mind Davidson is 18-5 ATS as a road underdog of six points or less, winning by an average of 1.6 points.

Bettors Should Expect the Unexpected Sunday

Typically Sunday is the day where more upsets occur in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. In this round, the lower seeds have managed to win about 43 percent (36-48) straight up and covered the spread a money making 53 percent of the time. This can lead to all kinds of madness and the potential for lower seeds to win outright or at the very least cover oddsmakers spreads exist. Here are the possibilities for upsets today.

(6)Arizona State vs (-3) Syracuse 12:10E

Do you think N.C. State has more respect for former coach Herb Sendek now? Arizona State is one of five teams that advanced to second round out of the Pac-10 and Sendek has turned around a dormant Sun Devils program that would frequently have less than a hundred students at games. Even more amazing, is the fact ASU made it to this matchup with Syracuse, when you realize Pac-10 player of the year James Harden has nine points on 1 for 8 shooting versus Temple. Point guard Derek Glasser filled in the scoring void with career-high 22 points and lifted Arizona State to 19-11 ATS on the year.

Syracuse is bad matchup for many teams, since they have scoring options all over the floor. Jonny Flynn has been the best point guard in the country the last 10 days and Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins are trigger-happy assassins who kill opposing teams with there shooting ability. Arinze Onuaku and Paul Harris do a nice job on the inside and the defensive intensity has picked up with Orangemen on 8-1 SU and ATS roll. Syracuse is a two-point pick and it would hardly be an upset if the Sun Devils shine and come out on top.

(11) Dayton vs (3) Kansas 2:30E

What might have been the quietest upset of the first round was Dayton controlling West Virginia from the opening minutes as 9.5-point underdogs. The Flyers had been written off since losing point guard Rob Lowery and were only 3-4 in last seven contests. However, Dayton is a quality defensive team in holding foes to 39.6 percent shooting and Chris Wright dunked the Mountaineers into the off-season with 24 points. This was Dayton’s first tournament win in 19 years and they are 8-3 ATS against teams with winning records.

Kansas stood up against a game North Dakota State squad and keeps alive the dream of defending national championship. The Jayhawks will want to step up tempo and force Dayton to play at their pace and are 16-4 ATS versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or less turnovers a game this season. Kansas is a 7.5-point favorite and is one of a trio of three-seeds playing today and this group is 10-2 and 8-4 ATS this round since 2006.

(13) Cleveland State vs (12) Arizona 2:40E

Almost every year is one crazy matchup nobody saw coming and this is the one. Arizona’s Big 3 played up to and beyond expectations, scoring 66 of the Wildcats 84 points. Arizona was among the last teams invited to the dance and played like they should have been invited unquestionably. The ‘Cats are 11-2 ATS playing against teams with 60-80 win percentage this season, but won’t be able to play the underdog card again in Miami.

Cleveland State played like they should have been the fourth seed in whipping Wake Forest 84-69. The Vikings have won 13 of 15 (9-5-1 ATS) and are playing with supreme confidence. Cleveland State is making first tournament appearance in 23 years and this squad is noted for defense. The Vikings are 10-2 ATS when playing with one or less days rest this season and like Arizona did Friday, can play loose with nothing to lose as three-point dogs.

(8) Oklahoma State vs (1) Pittsburgh 2:50E

Pittsburgh was the least impressive of the number one seeds in the opening round and will have to step up defensive passion against a team that can shoot the orange. Oklahoma State has little size, but is big on heart, with excellent shooting range. Okie State shot 56.6 percent against Tennessee, making seven 3’s and attacked the rim like bunch of cowboys at a $9.99 all-you-can-eat steak joint after working cattle all day. These Cowboys are similar to their coach Travis Ford, who is a fiery sort and won’t back off a challenge. Oklahoma State is 9-2 and 10-1 ATS since Valentine’s Day.

Pittsburgh needed 38 minutes to finally distance themselves from East Tennessee State and looked like they deserve the tag of NCAA tournament underachiever. The sloppy Panthers will have to bring their hearts and get into the game from the start or the Cowboys could shoot Pitt right out of the tournament. Pittsburgh is a noteworthy 10-2 ATS versus teams who make eight or more three-point shots a game and are favored by eight.

(6) Marquette vs (3) Missouri 4:50E

Marquette lived to tell about Utah State’s comeback and moved to next round with 58-57 squeaker. The Golden Eagles shot ugly 36.2 percent, however converted 19 of 23 attempts from the charity stripe to preserve victory. Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews can not go a combined 6 for 26 if Marquette has visions of trip to Glendale, AZ.

Missouri is a four-point favorite in this contest of Midwestern universities and will try to make pressing defense take its toll on thin Marquette squad. The Tigers will wear out teams, even teams who protect the ball like the Golden Eagles; with 14-4 ATS record vs. clubs committing 14 or fewer turnovers a game this year. Marquette can create the upset, if they shoot the ball better and Missouri goes into one of their shootings funks which has happened this season.

(10) USC vs (2) Michigan State 5:00E

This is the classic 10 vs 2 second round matchup and USC has the momentum and talent to advance. The Trojans buried Boston College, doubling them up 42-21 in the second half. Taj Gibson led the onslaught, with 24 points and 10-for-10 shooting from the field. USC has now won and covered six straight, shooting over 50 percent and playing normal Tim Floyd defense. Don’t expect the Trojans to be worn out either, since two games in three days is the norm in the Pac-10 and they are 24-11 ATS in this set up.

Michigan State is four-point favorite and is 7-1 ATS away from East Lansing versus teams shooting 45 percent or better, with defense holding opponents to 42 percent or less. Don’t sell USC short, since they are 26-12 ATS as an underdog. No. 10 seeds are 9-5 ATS in second round since 2000.

(9) Siena vs (1) Louisville 5:20E

Louisville went through the motions in the first half against Morehead State before asserting themselves in the final 20 minutes to put them away. A similar pattern of play might prove fatal for the tournament’s top-rated team. Siena’s fast paced style of play was reduced to a crawl by Ohio State. The Saints needed 50 minutes to finally overcome the Buckeyes 74-72, despite making only 33.3 percent of their shots. How they managed to hang in was controlling the glass with overwhelming 17 rebound edge (51-34). Bookmaker.com has Siena receiving 11.5-points, with total of 141 and they might need it all and more. All five starters played a minimum of 44 minutes in Friday’s contest and facing the Louisville pressure has proven to be physically and mentally fatiguing for opposing teams. Siena is 10-3 ATS as an underdog of 7.0 to 12.5 points, while Louisville is 10-2 ATS after a game shooting 57 percent or higher and allowing 43 percent shooting or less.

(12) Wisconsin vs (4) Xavier 2:20E

If you prefer grind it out possession after possession basketball, you should be in luck with Xavier taking on Wisconsin. Actually the Musketeers can get up and down the court, averaging 72.5 points game, on 46.5 percent shooting. Xavier has a superb deep game, tossing in 40 percent from beyond the arc and they are 6-0 ATS against Big Ten teams.

Wisconsin can play 94-feet also; they just walk it, as opposed to running back and forth. The Badgers are capable of the upset if they continue to heave them in from long distance. They made nine three-pointers after the intermission to surprise Florida State. This is the Badgers 11th appearance in the second round and they are 15-2 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog. Oddsmakers are giving Wisky four points with a total of 122.5.

Sunday Wagering Action

The Washington Huskies just missed out on a win, thus had to settle for 1-2 day. Saturday’s lone winner was a NBA system play and we’ll come right back with another, which is 80.6 percent. Today’s Top Trend is perfect and involves a Big 12 team in action. The Left Coast Connection is 100 percent behind one team in college basketball today. Good Luck.

I believe Jay Bilas will get an assignment for the Sweet 16 on CBS. If you want to play a drinking game, throw one back every time Bilas says “ball screen”, you’ll never see the second half.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road teams revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more. The team that fits this NBA system is Oklahoma City and the record is a sparkling 25-6 ATS, 80.6 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Kansas Jayhawks are 10-0 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 42 percent or less shooting percentage after 15 or more games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Slick Rick is among the 11 LCC bettors on Xavier today, believing they move on to Sweet 16 with win and cover.