Saturday Selections and Notice

As mentioned in the Free email I send out (signup on the right), the most members ever of the Left Coast Connection were on one team (Phillies), who were throttled last evening. Cole Hamels cost a lot of people money, fortunately not me. We ended up 2-1, giving us 119-79-3 record since April 11. Today we have top quality system that is 50-12 in a contest at Citi Field. The Top Trend is 100% perfect, will it stay that way? Slick Rick has been doing well, and takes look at the Brew Crew and Giants contest. Good Luck.

Special Notice – I’m on vacation starting today. Their will not be anything on this blog on Sunday and Wednesday for sure and I’ll do what I can to try and take care of Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, normal service returns on Thursday July 2. And yes I will have a good time.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON favorites like the Yankees with a money line of -110 or higher, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games, against opponent after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more earned runs. This arresting system is 50-12, 80.6 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Cincinnati Reds are 9-0 against the money line after a loss by six runs or more this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick is 8-3 the last four days and prefers Milwaukee to keeping laying it on San Francisco.

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Let's Go for 3-0 Again

Swept the board and look to do the same again today. Have a smokin’ system that is 28-5. The Top Trend is a money-maker, following an American League team off a big W. Kendall turned in his top play in plenty of time yesterday, it was me who screwed up. He offers his Best Bet for Friday. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – The Tampa Bay Rays gave up four runs to the Phillies in the top of the first inning but shut them down the rest of the way to post a come-from-behind 10-4 victory. It was only the third time in franchise history that Tampa Bay won a home game in which it allowed at least four runs in the first inning. The Rays' other home wins of that kind were against the Orioles in April 2003 and the Yankees in April 2004.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON AL home favorites like Baltimore with a money line of -125 to -175, allowing 5.2 or more runs game on the season, after conceding eight runs or more. Since 2007, this system is scorching 28-5, 84.8 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The L.A. Angels are 10-1 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a win by six runs or more over the last two seasons. (Biased to this trend since I’ll be at the game)

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall won again yesterday and like the Phillies not to flinch on the road north of the border.

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The Washington Nationals Stink

Here’s a news flash, the Washington Nationals are the worst team in baseball. OK, not exactly man bites dog material, but aren’t you curious what makes them so bad? Consider right today, they are on pace to have 47-115 record for the season. That would be the worst record since Detroit lost 119 games in 2003 and among the worst since 162-game schedule came into existence. To date, Washington has lost -25.1 units for the sports bettor, which places them at or very near to Arizona’s -60.1 units pace in 2004, which is the standard bearer since 1997.

Just how inept are the Nationals? Start with they are already -93 in runs scored and runs allowed in 2009 (Thru June 24). Why this is important is because they are being outscored by 1.35 runs per game, almost measuring up to the run line on a nightly basis, which includes their victories. The next worst team is San Diego at -72 RS/RA, which is a difference of a whopping 29 percent. For those that that have been betting against Washington on a regular basis, their average margin of loss is OVER three runs per game, that’s AVERAGE.

Since Third Eye Blind had the hit song “Semi-Charmed Life”, 11 teams have lost 28 or more units in a season. There are those that believe playing on the very worst teams in Major League Baseball after the All-Star break since they can’t play any worse and the better clubs won’t take them seriously and you could pick up a +220 underdog winner and cash now and again.

While that sounds really enticing, if you happen to see such an article or piece in a forum or website, email the writer and ask if you could their money to chase those bets. Bad teams as just that, bad.

So what is Washington’s problem? In all honesty it’s not really the offense’s fault, though they deserve some of the blame.

The Nationals rank 20th in runs scored at 4.26 per game, not great, but without a doubt better than Seattle at 3.9 per outing. Washington is 22nd in home runs and their hitters have a very good eye with three balls in the count, averaging 4.1 walks per game, second only to Boston, who is the best in baseball. They do have free swingers and any team with Adam Dunn is going to be ringing up strikeouts and the Nationals total 7.9 per game, which is 26th. Manager Manny Acta’s club lacks clutch hitters, ranking dead last in runners left on base at 8.1 per nine innings.
If it’s not the hitting, it must be pitching and is it ever.

The Nationals front office made the decision they were not going to win with retread pitchers who couldn’t hold jobs with other clubs, thus they decided to throw their youngsters into the fire and live with the consequences. That means John Lannan, Colin Balester, Ross Detwiler, Shairon Martis and Jordan Zimmerman, who are all 24 years old or younger, would be thrown to the wolves and see how they would survive. As expected, the results haven’t been good on almost any level.

Washington surrenders 5.6 runs per game, which is 30th overall. The Nats staff is pounded for 9.5 runs per contest (27th) and concedes the second most extra bases hits at 3.6 PG. The starters are 29th in Quality Starts, with only neighboring Baltimore worse.

With so many youngsters, finding the strike zone on consistent basis figured to be an issue and it is. They allow 4.2 free passes per game (30th) and total 5.6 strikeouts (28th), making it less than challenging to determine Washington is last in K/W ratio.

While the front office wants to develop scare tissue on its kiddie corps, they also keep them on a shorter leash, keeping track of pitch counts. With this many young arms, they build pitch counts quickly, exposing a bullpen ill-equipped to handle the workload. The pen has an ERA of 5.45, which suggests even if the Nationals have a lead late in games, they would be prone to losing leads and they have. Washington’s non-starters have blown 17 saves (which includes more than one in the same game) out of 28 chances, coming in an outlandish 39.2 save percentage. This worn-out group lacks ability and isn’t helped by being just one of four teams in baseball with a single shutout.

Other pitching factors including being 28th in first pitch strikes and they lead the majors in four ball walks.

It’s apparent Washington is in for very L O N G season and they could threaten the 1962 Mets record of 120 losses, though are not likely to finish 60.5 games out of first place like Casey Stengel’s squad did when their were no divisions. The Nationals figure to possibly come close to Arizona’s futility concerning wagering of five years ago at current pace as Play Against team supreme.

The jettison of manager Acta is a foregone conclusion, with the idea of starting a pool and let people pick dates for his departure sort of fun in a morbid way. In a city built on winning at (not the sports teams) any cost, the Nationals are a bad fit.

MLB Series Wagering- Cubs at White Sox

The Windy City is about to get a whole lot windier with the Cubs invading the South Side of Chicago to face the White Sox. For the fans of these teams, this is really a treat, for the bragging rites of the town, no matter where they finish in the standings.

The Cubs (34-35, -8.6 units) return to Chicago having lost the first four games of their road trip. Once again it is a lack of offense, averaging three runs per game to start the 10-game trip. The North Siders are just 6-14 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .250 or worse over a 20-game span this season.

The White Sox (35-37, -2.4 units) are feeling pretty spry after beating the best team in baseball, the Dodgers, two of three times. “Most importantly, we won a series against a club like the Dodgers, who came into town with the best record,” Sox outfielder Scott Podsednik said. “Maybe that will give us some momentum at home. We haven’t been playing that great here.”

The Pale Hose have won four of five and seven of last 10, as they try to get back to .500 on the season. Their win yesterday ended 0-2-1 home series drought. The down side is they are 23-37 having won three of their last four games over the last two seasons.

The White Sox will face Randy Wells (1-3, 2.57 ERA), who is coming off his first major league victory after finally receiving run support. He has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his eight starts, yet picked up just his first win last Sunday against Cleveland in 6-2 victory. He’ll face Jose Contreras (2-6, 5.23), who is 2-1 in last three starts with 1.23 ERA. DiamondSportsbook.com has the Cubs as slight -110 money line favorites with total of Ov.9. The Cubs have been poor series starters and are 4-13 in road games when playing on Friday’s since last year. The White Sox by contrast are 13-3 as a home underdog of +100 to +125.

Game 1 Edge: Cubs

Mark Buehrle (7-2, 3.17) is one of the most dominant home pitchers in baseball. The left-hander and his Sox mates are 45-20 at US Cellular Field and he is 19-6 in interleague play. The month of June has been Buehrle’s time, with 27-11 record and the White Sox have won 20 of last 28 starts the lefty has made on Saturday.

Contrast those numbers with the Cubs and Ryan Dempster (4-5, 3.83) on the road. Coming into the series, the Cubbies are 5-16 in last 21 visitor assignments. This includes in part losing nine in a row in interleague play in road uniforms. Dempster and the Cubs have dropped 10 of 11 road games he’s started and if the Cubs lose on Friday, the two collectively are 0-9 off a defeat.

Game 2 Edge: White Sox

The final game of the series has Carlos Zambrano (4-2, 3.48) taking on John Danks (5-6, 4.43). Zambrano has complained he’s “bored” playing road interleague games, since he doesn’t get to hit with Cubs using DH. Big Z hasn’t pitched that way with 3-1 record and 2.78 ERA in away contests. Danks hasn’t been able to spot his pitches as well this year, being hurt by the long ball. The left-hander surrendered 15 home runs in 2008 and has allowed 11 already this year. Maybe pitching during the day will help, with his earned run average less than half playing in the afternoon compared to pitching at night (2.45 day vs 5.00 night).

Game 3 Edge: White Sox

These teams have taken turns sweeping each other the last two years off the Dan Ryan Freeway, with the Pale Hose taking all three a season ago. The White Sox have won four of last five and are playing better baseball at the moment. To borrow from Sox announcer Ken “Hawk” Harrelson, “Good Guys” take the weekend series.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Cubs +115, White Sox -145

3DW Pick: White Sox

2009 Record – 3-7

Turnaround Thursday

Tough day to swallow, with one loss in extra innings (again) and the other a one run affair (At least I warned you about system). Time to bounce back on the winning track with an 80.3 percent system and a prefect reverse trend both on tap. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday –Randy Johnson improved his career record against Oakland to 15-9 with his victory on Wednesday. Johnson's win came almost 20 years after he first defeated the Athletics on July 29, 1989, the longest gap between a pitcher's first and last (most recent) win against the A's since Dennis Eckersley beat them over a span of almost 23 years (May 25, 1975-April 15, 1998).

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites like Tampa Bay with a money line of -110 or higher, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games, against opponent after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more earned runs. This easy to follow system is 49-12, 80.3 percent, with average winning margin 2.2 runs per game.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Baltimore Orioles are 0-12 in road games with double revenge - two straight losses against opponent this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall took the Yankees. (Got busy with other projects forgot all about it, sorry)

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Betting Options for NBA Draft

It’s nothing short of amazing how drafts in various sports have become a cottage industry onto themselves. The next one of importance is in the NBA. The fine folks of ESPN will have enough visible personnel during its broadcast of who is going where in professional basketball, they could invade Malta. They will tell the story of what happens, while you can turn into recreational sports bettor and play along making prop bets on the various happenings. Here’s hoping Jay Bilas and Dick Vitale have another on-screen argument and what to look for from the draft.

Most NBA experts that follow the draft believe this could be one of the craziest and most entertaining nights of professional basketball, without one center jump. Speaking to an avid NBA bettor and one who follows the game 24/7, he points to organizational philosophies making the difference. “One player can turn a NBA franchise around. The Bulls took Derrick Rose, in the playoffs with brighter future. It comes down to front office types making shrewd decisions. Take the right player, fortunes will rise; take the wrong player, Hello lottery again.”

One wretched franchise that can change what has become a way of life is the Los Angeles Clippers. They have the first pick and the world expects them to take Blake Griffin. He has the look and determination of a player who COULD (not will) lead the Clips out of the NBA abyss. The Clippers might be wise to sign his brother Taylor as free agent and keep him on the team as 12th man and have Blake be happier to start his NBA career.

From here, the NBA water gets a littler murky, though certain things should happen. (Picks based on current slots as of writing)

Player to get Drafted First from DiamondSportsbook.com

Hasheem Thabeet -350
James Harden +225

This is not as easy as it looks since Memphis would prefer to move out of No. 2 slot. Thabeet is the obvious choice to build with A.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay, however questions surround how good a defender and rebounder he will be a next level. Harden is actually a more proven commodity, but might be too similar to Mayo and appears to have less upside than Thabeet. The Grizzlies want to believe they are getting the real deal and not taking the next Andrew Bogut. Play Thabeet.

Stephen Curry -200
Johnny Flynn +155

Curry is the correct choice; nevertheless, as mentioned, different front offices are not always in sync. Sacramento has the fourth pick and wants a point guard. Depending on the day, time or if the humidity is a little higher in Sac-Town, the Kings have professed to like Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, Flynn and Brandon Jennings name has started popping up. In the end, Sacramento takes Evans based on last impression and Curry goes to Minnesota, ahead of Flynn.

Tyler Hansbrough -300
Chase Budinger +200

Going to play the dog here with Budinger and here’s why. When it comes down to it, Hansbrough’s lack of athletic ability will scare teams off, in spite of toughness which many teams could use. (I’m hoping Charlotte doesn’t screw this up) The absolute perfect place for Hansbrough to flourish to start professional career is Utah, which has 20th pick. Though Budinger isn’t all that well liked with many GM’s believing he is nearly finished product, the Philadelphia 76ers need players that can shoot, which is the former volleyball player’s greatest strength. Granted, Philly needs a point guard for aging before your eyes Andre Miller at No. 17, nonetheless having player off the bench to score immediately is more pressing need.

Wayne Ellington -140
DaJaun Summers Even

This is a hard play to make, since it becomes about need. A team like Atlanta could use another outside shooter, which Ellington is. Though there are reservations about his ability to put the ball on the deck and create, as a spot-up shooter, as good as you will find in the draft. Summers is a fit for a team like Memphis looking for size and is interchangeable at three or four spot. A smallish play on Ellington because he can make shots and Summers has been more unreliable.

Brandon Jennings -110
Jrue Holiday -130

Any NBA General Manager only has to think back to Sebastian Telfair, when considering Brandon Jennings. If I lose this wager, will call up offending team and ask them to bet me double or nothing which player has better NBA career.

Darren Collison (UCLA) - When Will He be Drafted (1st or 2nd Round)

First –Even
Second -140

Collison goes in the first round, with Oklahoma City and Portland as possible destinations. I would shocked if the Lakers took him at #29 since they already have one UCLA point guard with marginal ability in Jordan Farmar.

DeJuan Blair (Pittsburgh) - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)

1 -14th choice -160
15th or later +120

Though his knees are a concern to potential suitors, Blair’s crew has supplied the right information about his health and his stock has risen as much as anyone’s. Top 14 choices New Jersey and Indiana make the most sense for the big man. Bet the -160.

Gerald Henderson (Duke) - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)

1 -14th choice -170
15th or later +130

Henderson got better each season at Duke, proving he’s willing to do what it takes to be a pro. With too many attitude players with potentially bigger upsides having egos already that of superstar, having the chance to pick more level-headed player has to make lottery teams like Toronto or Charlotte pleased. Take the -170.

Ty Lawson (North Carolina) - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)

1 -14th choice +120
15th or later -160

Lawson could go to Pacers early, but his lack of size and potential problematic ability to find clear shots have him falling out of the first 14 selections.

DeMar DeRozan (USC) - Over/Under Draft Position

Over 10.5 -Even
Under 10.5 -140

This is the perfect example why GM’s and coaches can’t sleep nights. DeRozan has Top 5 ability, nobody questions that. At USC as a freshman, he showed his brilliance and lack of maturity almost evenly. There are genuine concerns about his true readiness at this level. Toronto at No.9 is the team most in need of his skills, however, DeRozan has made it known he’s not cool about the idea of playing north of the border. Take the Over.

Number of North Carolina players chosen in first round

One - +600
Two - +200
Three – minus 200
Four - +800

The Tar Heels are the national champions and will get the respect they likely deserve and will have three players chosen in the first round, all who have been mentioned already, leaving no need to be redundant as to who they are.

Tuesday's Top Plays

Baltimore’s extra inning loss gave us 1-2 day and moved record to 114-78-3 over the last two and half months. The Top Trend was our lone winner and we have a perfect one going tonight down in Houston. Kendall makes a return visit on a nice run and offers his Best Bet. The Best System is one of the best all season at 39-2, however a word of caution does creep up. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – The Texas Rangers will eventually hit again, but check out some of the numbers below in article about them. I saw them last night and Texas hitters might be pressing, because the Arizona scouting report was obvious, with two strikes throw high heat, they will swing. The Rangers Matt Harrison looked very hittable and was, and Justin Upton needs to lose 15 pounds, take his fielding seriously and the guy could be one of the top outfielders in baseball.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Texas with a money line of +150 or more, batting .200 or worse over their last three games, against opponent with a potent starting pitcher with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This system rocks at 39-2, 95.1 percent. (Note- Texas and Vicente Padilla are 10-0 when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons)

Free Baseball Trend -2) Roy Oswalt and Houston are 10-0 when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38 to 46%) since last season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall crops up with +9 units the last three days of wagering and views Florida as top choice.

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What College Football Teams have Guts?

With the advent of the 12th game added to college football schedule in 2006, it was reported by the NCAA, this was designed to create more interesting non-conference conflicts. Well, like any government bureaucracy, the plan was short-sighted, not thought all the way through and turns out to be nothing like it was intended to be. Most BCS universities used this opportunity to add a home game as revenue builder and brushed up on geography, trying to Google locations of FCS schools that could use cold hard cash and would not mind trading a loss for green-backs.

These FCS schools quickly passed a class in economics, no longer settling for a quarter of a million dollars to get beat, raising the price to current levels of $500,000 to close seven digits for the right of bigger schools to build winning records.

This does not go on at every large university thankfully. There are those who have the courage to play home and home with another big program and try and have the team prepared for conference action. They will still play a cream-puff, but at least it doesn’t look like a whole box of Dunkin Donuts, like many other schools.

Here is a review of the schools that have courage and a couple that are cowardly lions. (Any nicknames with lions is purely coincidental)

Georgia and LSU

Mark Richt works well with his athletic director to schedule the right combination. You don’t have to play USC and Ohio State every year in non-conference action, however, find the right above average program that will be tough competition and have the interest of the local fans to come out and watch with a purpose. Georgia opens at Oklahoma State and you can ask Oklahoma and Texas how much fun Stillwater can be to play as a highly ranked team. The Bulldogs have return match in Athens against Arizona State and closes the season as per usual, with in-state rival Georgia Tech, this year in Atlanta. Nobody will begrudge Georgia hosting Tennessee Tech, as a doughnut game between Florida and Auburn.

Contrast Georgia’s slate with that of LSU. It’s not the Tigers fault Washington is moribund, it just worked out that way for the season opener on the road. In their remaining three non-SEC contests, LSU doesn’t even leave the state of Louisiana. The Tigers play Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana Tech and Tulane at Tiger Stadium. And please don’t send email suggesting LSU wants to promote football in the Bayou, nobody is buying it.

Virginia Tech

Someday coach Frank Beamer will retire and fans of college football will be poorer because of it. Beamer will play anyone anywhere, as long as they will visit Blacksburg. No big time program has played as often on Thursday’s, trying to promote what they have going and build on winning tradition. This season, Beamer takes the Hokies down to Atlanta for a beauty against Alabama on Sept. 5. Two weeks later, Nebraska arrives at Lane Stadium and they will have revenge on their minds from last year against East Carolina at home on the first Thursday of November. Even Marshall is a representative opponent.

Florida State

Bobby Bowden is the modern version of building a program from scratch and playing anyone wherever, which he started doing 34 years ago in Tallahassee. After getting away from his roots for a few years earlier this decade, Florida State is getting back to what it used to do. On Sept. 19, the Seminoles will make treacherous trip to Provo, to face BYU. Florida State has more athletes than BYU, nevertheless, the Cougars passing game could be equalizer. Of course defending national champs Florida will close the regular season, but kudos to FSU for scheduling South Florida. It’s not a gimme, as the Bulls have talent and they have plenty of players that Florida State probably never recruited, thus will be motivated to prove Bowden and his team they made mistake.

Miami- Florida

Head coach Randy Shannon is in his third year, trying to rebuild the Hurricanes program back to past glories. Similar to LSU, Miami never leaves Florida for its four non-conference games, with a sharp contrast in quality and whereabouts. The AD didn’t do Shannon any favors, scheduling Oklahoma on Oct. 3, right after encounter at Virginia Tech. The following week they have Florida A&M coming into Landshark Stadium. What separates the Miami from LSU, they go right into the eye of the hurricane so to speak with road challenges at Central and South Florida.

BYU

The Cougars will be more than ready for Mountain West Conference play in 2009. BYU will travel to Arlington, Texas, to play in Jerry Jones new palace against Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford and Oklahoma in season opener. This is followed by another road excursion to Tulane, before heading home to prepare for Florida State. That is ambitious start for the Cougs, who are preseason MWC favorites.

Houston and Rice

It’s not easy playing in a non-BCS conference, since finding games means traveling for the most part. This is true for Conference USA favorite Houston, who had to make one-sided deal with Oklahoma State and returns to Stillwater for second straight year. The Cougars will at least have Texas Tech at Robertson Stadium on Sept. 26. Following that battle, Houston has three straight road games, with the middle one at Mississippi State.

Rice is off rewarding 10-3 campaign and Texas Bowl rout of Western Michigan. The Owls suffered major losses on offense, which included QB Chase Clement and receiver Jarett Dillard. Having September road games versus Texas Tech and Oklahoma State will test mettle early, with Vanderbilt home game to follow. Later in the middle of October, it’s off to face a good East Carolina club. Nothing easy for Rice this season.

Illinois

The Fighting Illini’s non-Big Ten schedule isn’t so pressing, as it is unusual. This will be the third consecutive year Illinois opens with Missouri, which hasn’t worked out well for coach Ron Zook trying to get off to fast start with a pair of defeats. Illinois State makes the journey south to Champaign for next game and home opener for Illinois. Because the Big Ten slate has the Illini playing at Ohio State, home to Penn State and Michigan State in first three affairs starting Sept. 26, they made Sept. 19 an open date. How the Zookers decided to play the rest of non-conference games was wait until the Big Ten was over, take a bye week and play at Cincinnati the day after Thanksgiving and have Fresno State visit in December to finish the year. Certainly creative, especially for the Big Ten.

Penn State

Joe Paterno has been at Penn State forever, or so it seems. Paterno earlier this year was lobbying for the Big Ten to add a twelfth team to the league and wasn’t shy about his feelings in saying he didn’t want Notre Dame, when Pittsburgh or Syracuse would do fine in his mind. Of course Jo Pa wouldn’t want to do what the Pac-10 did in adding ninth conference game, not when you can schedule Akron, the Orangemen, Temple and Eastern Illinois all at Beaver Stadium.

Texas batters have Rangers up against Rough System

Over the years, the best baseball played in the state of Texas has in been in Austin at the University of Texas, who plays in tonight’s College World Series championship game. The Texas Rangers have long been known for something also, hitting the ball and not winning many games. The Rangers organization has never been able to develop pitchers, thus having everyday hitters has been their best road to what success they have enjoyed.

This season, with a better bullpen and change in pitching philosophy, Texas has spent the vast majority of the time in first place in the American League West by themselves, until know. Having lost five in a row and nine of last 14, the Rangers have been caught by favored Los Angeles. To the casual baseball observer, one would expect another collapse of Texas pitching to be the culprit; however this is not the case at the present time, as the Rangers bats have gone uncommonly quiet.

In their current batting slump, Texas is hitting below .250 as a team, scoring as many as six runs only twice and averaging 2.64 runs per game. Though management is saying they are not concerned per se, there are troubling signs.

“Obviously we’ve hit a speed bump and the players know that,” general manager Jon Daniels told the Rangers’ official Web site. “But I’d much rather talk about an offensive slump than the pitching issues we’ve had to deal with in the past.”

In looking at Lone Star Ball blog, we find a series of Rangers woes when it comes to hitting.
In the American League, Texas has the highest percentage of swings and misses at 20 percent. The Rangers are last in pitches taken for strikes at 24 percent. Texas batters swing at 48 percent of the pitches they see, which is the highest in the AL, with first place Boston taking hacks the fewest amount of times at 41 percent. The Rangers only make contact 74 percent of the time, which is again dead last.

The pitching axiom of throwing first pitch strike is much easier against Texas, since they swing at one-third of these pitches. Consider Tampa Bay is the second most impatient team to swing the bat on the first pitch at 28 percent and doing the math you have a difference of almost 18 percent between first and second positions, which is an enormous gap.

Last night pitcher Max Scherzer of Arizona was able to strikeout seven Texas hitters in six innings, by pitching up the ladder to Rangers hitters. (With each strike pitching higher in the zone) With how undisciplined Texas hitters are right now, six of the seven pitches that resulted in K’s would have been balls with more patience.

There task becomes a lot whole more difficult this evening facing Dan Haren (6-4, 2.23 ERA, 0.822 WHIP). Haren would have much better record be it for more run support and is 11-2 with a 2.90 ERA in his career in interleague play, including 8-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last nine outings. Haren has been close to un-hittable in last five starts, with a 3-0 record and silly 1.66 ERA.

This places Texas in a conundrum, going up against a system that reads this way:

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher, with WHIP or 1.000 or less over his last five starts.

With Haren posting 96 strikeouts in 101 innings, the free-swinging Rangers might cool off the surroundings of the 100+ degrees heat in downtown Phoenix, providing natural wind flow. This system is 76-13, 85.4 percent since 2004. Haren is 22-7 in June starts (Teams Record) in his career and is 22-8 UNDER in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Arizona as -175 money line favorites with the total Ov8. Sure the Rangers miss Josh Hamilton’s bat in the lineup, but what they miss more is plate discipline, after leading the AL in contact on percentage of swings in 2008.

Let's make it a Terrific Tuesday

After a couple of mediocre days, get back in the game with 2-0 day. The Left Coast Connection has another Free consensus play and the Red Sox play a certain way with a day off in today’s Top Trend. The Best System is special at 86 percent in interleague action. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday - Four Atlanta pitchers combined to blank the Chicago Cubs on Monday night, allowing 10 hits, all of them singles. That's not your typical recipe for a shutout. It was only the second time in the last 50 seasons that the Braves posted a shutout while giving up at least 10 hits but none for extra bases. The other one was a complete-game 10-hitter by Carl Morton against the Astros in 1973.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON any team after five or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two marginal losing teams, which fall into 46 to 49 percent range. This superb system is 37-6, 86 percent and says to support Baltimore tonight.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Boston Red Sox are 9-0 after a day off in 2009.

Free Baseball Selection -3) We have another LCC consensus play, with nine members on Seattle and zero liking San Diego’s chances.

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Can you trust these money-making baseball hurlers?

Each baseball season, we learn by following who are the best pitchers in baseball. We’ve become conditioned to look for names like Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, C.C. Sabathia and others. Most years, pitchers targeted for greatness also put it all together and this year we have seen Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley and Dan Haren to name a few become dominate, with bright futures ahead of them.

With success come overvalued money lines, as oddsmakers smell opportunity and will make sports bettors pay to play on their favorite pitchers with proven track records. A big time pitcher like Halladay has 10-1 record and Toronto has won 10 of his 14 starts, yet baseball bettors have walked away with a mere +2.7 units of profit backing the Blue Jays chucker.

A far simpler method of seeking tidy sums of money is to follow what pitchers have brought in the most money. For example, does it make sense to take the Top 5 pitchers in units won and bet those toeing the rubber and their respective team’s until they prove they are not worthy of our money? Or are these pitchers such a crap shoot, that from start to start they are unpredictable as to what type of outcome they will provide?

Here is a look at the best five pitchers in the game and what their prospects are in terms of future playability.

At the ripe old age of 29, Matt Palmer (6-1, 8-2 team record, +9.1 units) made his way onto major league roster in San Francisco and started three games for Giants with 0-2 record and ERA of 8.53 last season. Palmer made his way south to join the Los Angeles Angels and was ticketed for more minor league duty. The Angels pitching staff was a quandary in the spring and Palmer showed enough to be a starter. Working with pitching coach John Butcher, Palmer became more consistent in throwing strikes and has been hitting his spots while changing speeds.

Palmer has kept the Halos in games and has been the beneficiary of good offensive outings, as Los Angeles has scored four or more runs in all but one of his starts. Palmer has been up to the pitching challenge, having faced the ace of opposing team in seven of his 10 starts. You can’t help but wonder if the right-hander is enjoying his proverbial 15 minutes of fame. Right-hand hitters are batting just .223 against him; however history is not on his side arriving in the bigs so late in his career.

Betting- Consider mostly home starts at -125 or less

Josh Johnson (7-1, 12-3, +8.9 units) is mountain of a man at 6’7, 230 pounds for Florida. The 25-year old is blossoming into quite a pitcher, be it relative obscurity. Johnson’s fastball of 92-96 looks faster because of his size and downhill angle. He’s become proficient of going up the ladder (low pitches early in the count and moving up later) and has power slider. His mental makeup comes thru, as he and the Marlins are 5-1 on the road and perfect 5-0 as underdogs. Night vision goggles required for opposing hitters, with 1.74 ERA after dark.

Betting – Strong play as present time

In the last few years, if you wanted to make money, it was bet against the Giants with Matt Cain (9-1, 11-3, +8.2 units) pitching. The 24-year old former first round pick, either received little run support, or had one bad inning that resulted in too many 5-4 or 3-2 losses. He’s been everyone’s favorite play against pitcher, until this season. With a reduction of weight in the off-season, his four-seam fastball is more in the mid-90’s and tailing two-seamer has been lower in the strike zone, resulting in fewer fly balls. He’s better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio for the first time in three years and has more pitched games with two or less walks then in the past. Still has big upside, if he keeps command and wants to thrive as strong No.2 with Lincecum.

Betting – Terrific play as favorite with San Fran 9-1.

To give you an idea of how long Tim Wakefield has played Major League baseball, the year he came up “Aladdin” was the top grossing movie (1992). Back then, Wakefield probably messed around throwing a knuckleball with his teammates in jest. In about six weeks, Wakefield (9-3, 11-3, +7.9 units) will be 43 years old and he’s been a god-send for Boston with an ineffective Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Smoltz finally making the active roster. Nothing has really changed for Wakefield’s fluttering pitch, other than the fact he’s seen Red Sox hitters pound out six or more runs in nine of his 14 starts.

Betting – Red Sox are 7-0 at Fenway with Wakefield tossing, nonetheless hard to support at much more than -160 at home.

Here’s a rarity, Jason Marquis (9-4, 10-4, +7.3 units) admits he likes pitching at Coors Field. The traveled right-hander took the right attitude and embraced pitching in the Colorado Mountains and he along with newfound teammates are 5-2 at home or on the road. Granted his ERA and WHIP are decidedly higher at home, but that is to be expected. Since being hammered in the middle of May by Houston (nine runs), Marquis has surrender four or less runs in last seven starts. He’s been much more effective during the day with 2.93 ERA compared 4.33 under the lights.

Betting – Other then 2005, when Marquis was 15-7 in St. Louis, little reason to believe he will keep pitching this well unless the Rockies score seven runs a game. He is however worth a look as underdog with 6-1 mark. (Rockies record)

Load it up for Monday

An extremely rare couple of losing days has us changing things up a bit, as does a light schedule. We have a run line system going today in a makeup game. The Top Trend is a Totals play and the Free Play is based on consensus action for a Monday. Good Luck.

What I saw yesterday and today – If you don’t believe pressure affects a person, you couldn’t be more wrong if you watched Ricky Barnes the last two days. The halfway leader at the U.S. Open completely changed his swing, going from fluid controlled motion to looking like Arnold Palmer, at current age. Barnes had terrible left side thrust and his hands couldn’t get up with his body and was all over the place. Congrats to Lucas Glover who more held his composure.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON road underdogs (Cubs) against a 1.5 run line, (Money Line =-190 to +165) who are below average NL hitting team with .255 or less batting average, against a good starting pitcher (3.70 or less ERA), starting a pitcher who walked five or more hitters last outing, This run line system is 47-15, 75.8 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The San Francisco Giants are 14-1 UNDER after scoring and allowing three runs or less this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Today, 11 LCC members are on Oakland, with not one backing the Giants in Bay Area battle.

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Monday Baseball Wagering Action

Besides a makeup game on tap today, three other games are on the baseball docket. Each has its own story to tell, here is what each looks like tonight to the sports bettor on a sleepy Monday.

Cardinals in control

St. Louis (39-31, +2.7 units) has reeled of three consecutive wins and eight of last 11, to take over first place in the NL Central. The Cards bats crushed Kansas City pitching for 29 runs on 37 hits in sweeping the Royals. The Cardinals were led by, who else, Albert Pujols, who abused K.C., with three home runs and 10 runs batted in. “It’s nothing special. I’m just seeing good pitches and hitting them,” Pujols said. That’s what Kansas City pitchers thought also.

New York (34-33, -2.3 units) has lost four series in a row, in compiling 4-8 record and will look to turn things around quickly. Mets pitching has been in the tank, conceding a hair over six runs per game and when they get a better effort like Johan Santana provided Saturday, the bats go deathly silent in 3-1 loss. The only good news comes from the fact New York is 8-0 having lost four of their last five games this season. They will send a shaky Tim Redding (0-2, 6.27) to the mound.

The Redbirds are slight -108 favorites with total Un9.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com. They are 31-19 vs. teams with a good bullpen, whose ERA is 3.75 or better. Todd Wellemeyer (6-6, 5.36) gets the call and New York is 11-17 (-17.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 over the last three seasons. ESPN2 will have the coverage at 7:10 Eastern.

Colorado is Hot Hot Hot

The 1970’s punk band, New York Dolls, have reunited recently with some of its original members, including front man David Johansen. For a time in the late 80’s, Johansen, repackaged himself as pseudonym Buster Poindexter and was part of the Saturday Night Live house band. He later recorded his one and only hit, which completely describes the Colorado Rockies at the moment - Hot Hot Hot. Colorado (36-33, +4.8 units) is on 16-1 roll to move into third place in the NL West, picking up +17.7 units of profit in the process. The Rockies are 16-4 in June and will start Aaron Cook (6-3, 4.23) against a team who had almost as hot.

The Los Angeles Angels (36-31, +5.5 units) had won seven straight before losing last two games to cross-town rival Dodgers. The Angels will start Matt Palmer (6-0, 4.13) who has won just once in last four starts. The Angels are hoping the journeyman Palmer can keep changing speeds and be effective and improve Angels record to 51-31 having lost two of their last three games.
The Halos are -113 money line favorites and Cook and Rockies are 6-0 in road games after two or more consecutive wins.

Bay Area Battle

The Oakland A’s (30-38, -5.8 units) are happy to return home after 3-6 interleague road trip, which started with three losses against tonight’s opponent San Francisco. The A’s are a tremendous 73-36 at home in interleague action and are keeping fingers crossed rookie Trevor Cahill (4-5, 3.89) can help turn around their fortunes.

San Francisco (37-31, +6.3) has shown multiple personalities of late, sweeping Oakland and Texas, while being swept by the Angels in the middle grouping of last three series, all at home. The Giants are 13-19 on the road and 18-38 after six or more consecutive home games since the start of 2007 campaign. Struggling Jonathan Sanchez 2-7, 5.43) will climb the hill for San Fran, who are +139 underdogs.

Oakland took the series over San Diego over the weekend; however is miserable 6-17 having won two of three in 2009.

Happy Father's Day to All

As a father, we too often get wrapped in our own little worlds and don’t give our children time enough to express what this day means to them, more than what it might mean to us. It’s a wonderful day to tell you kids and your dad what you are really thinking about them. Happy Father’s Day to you.

An unbecoming 1-2 Saturday record has us 110-74-3. Found an 81.2 percent system this is ready to fire in Boston. Today’s Top Trend looks in on the overpaid and underperforming Barry Zito. Mark goes for another Free Winner and has sharp angle to back it up. Good Luck.

What I saw yesterday – Jared and Jeff Weaver were the opposing starting pitchers in Los Angeles. It was the 21st time in major-league history that siblings started against each other in a game but only the second in which neither brother pitched at least six innings. The only other such occurrence came back on June 26, 1924, when Jesse Barnes pitched only 3 2/3 innings for the Boston Braves while Virgil Barnes lasted just 1/3 of an inning for the New York Giants.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Atlanta with a money line of +100 to +150, who average less than a homer run per game against a starting pitcher who allows one or less long balls per every two starts, with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season. Over the last three years this system is 26-6, 81.2 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Barry Zito and the Giants are 1-12 vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Mark of the LCC goes for three in a row in the I-5 Freeway series taking the Halos, with John Lackey and mates 11-0 at the Big A in interleague games.

Sunday Night Baseball Preview

After missing the first six weeks with an elbow injury, Los Angeles Angels right-hander John Lackey has had an up-and-down season. When he has faced the Los Angeles Dodgers in Anaheim in the Freeway Series, however, he’s enjoyed nothing but success. Lackey brings a 21-inning scoreless home streak against the Dodgers into Sunday night’s series finale as he tries to improve to 9-0 in his career in interleague starts at Angel Stadium.

The Angels (36-30, +7 units) have seen Lackey (2-2, 6.10 ERA, 1.565 WHIP) sprinkle in a few solid outings while getting hit hard in others in 2009 since he made his season debut May 16.
At home in interleague play, though, Lackey is 8-0 with a 2.00 ERA in 11 starts - all wins for the Angels. That includes a 4-0 mark with a 0.33 ERA in four outings against the Dodgers, with 21 straight scoreless innings.

Lackey faced the Dodgers (45-24, +18 units) on the road May 23 and yielded three runs over seven innings in a 5-4, 10-inning loss. In his last start, he won Monday at San Francisco by allowing three runs over seven innings while striking out a season-high 10 and walking none in a 9-7 victory.

“I really established the ball inside early in the game,” Lackey told the Angels’ official Web site Monday, “and that allowed me to get guys to go after the curveball. It’s probably the best curveball I’ve had so far this year.” The tall Texan and his Angels’ teammates have won last five Game 3’s his been the hurler.

Several hitters for the Dodgers have fared poorly versus Lackey. Casey Blake is 2 for 16, Andre Ethier 2 for 9 and Matt Kemp is hitless in nine at-bats with seven strikeouts. Those three hitters combined for four hits and three RBIs Saturday as the Dodgers ended the Angels’ season-high seven-game winning streak with a 6-4 victory. Russell Martin added three hits, including his first homer of the year, to help the Dodgers improve to 2-3 against the Angels.

With the Dodgers starting left-hander Clayton Kershaw (3-5, 4.13, 1.364) on Sunday, the Angels are hoping Juan Rivera can take advantage. Rivera is 0 for 2 with a walk in his career versus Kershaw, but he is one of the top hitters in the majors against left-handers with a .431 average. Rivera is 7 for 20 with two homers and five runs scored against the Dodgers this year while leadoff hitter Chone Figgins is 10 for 20 in the Freeway Series, and 19 for 45 (.422) with 11 runs scored in 11 interleague games.

“When you’re a line-drive-hitting team like we are,” Figgins told the Angels’ site, “you build on your own momentum. We get a base hit, go first to third, and suddenly, everything is in motion.”
Kershaw is 0-2 with a 3.29 ERA in three starts since his last win May 27 at Colorado. He gave up four hits over 5 2/3 innings Tuesday in a 5-4, 10-inning win over Oakland. The Dodgers are hoping Kershaw can just keep them in the game and get into the Halos putrid bullpen, since they are 24-11 vs. a mediocre pen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season.

The Dodgers victory over the A’s is the only win in Kershaw’s five career interleague starts - he is 0-1 with a 2.66 ERA in those outings. Kershaw’s lone career start against the Angels came May 22 and he gave up one run in five innings in a 3-1 loss.

Bookmaker.com has the Angels as -128 money line favorites with a total of Ov8.5. The team from Anaheim is 15-3 playing at the Big A when playing on Sunday over the last two seasons and 24-6 at home after three straight games where they committed no errors. With Lackey on the hill, the Angels are 17-5 UNDER in intrleague contests.

The Dodgers are 13-6 (+10.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 and 24-8 when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. The team actually from L.A. is 15-6 UNDER in interleague action against club that has winning record.

The starting time for this Father’s Day game is 8:05 Eastern on ESPN, with the Halos having won six of the last eight meetings on home turf.

Santosh Venkataraman, STATS Senior writer contributed to this article.