Super Duper Saturday

Delighted to be back and have a prefect reverse Top Trend to get things started. Could not find any systems that crawl over the 80 percent mark, thus went with the best one I could find in college basketball for today. Free Play has arrived from Nick. Good Luck

What is going on- For those that arrive here several days a week, you will have noticed the three picks were sparse this week. As what happened about a month ago, additional workload was assigned to me. This time it really cramped my style and I honestly didn’t look at any basketball lines all week except for Thursday about 25 minutes before the first games. I am sorry, but have to pay the bills first; I know you can appreciate that. Anyway, this might go on another week or two, but without question I will try and jump in where possible, however the weekend and football will still be here, as will daily articles. Thanks and keep reading.

Of everything I’ve either heard or read about Tiger Woods, this is the most accurate assessment of the situation based on my knowledge of big time athletes/celebrities that come thru Scottsdale.

I really like to read Pete Fuitak of College Football News but I don’t completely agree with his thoughts on Brian Kelly hired as Notre Dame coach. He said Kelly is a good hire, but Notre dame should have aggressively gone after Urban Meyer and paid him what it took, considering all the circumstances. I know Mr. Fuitak is well connected, but Notre Dame like all colleges today have companies that make contact thru different people to test the waters to find level of interest. I’d heard from people I know closer to the athletic department that Meyer had politely say he wasn’t interested and short of driving a Brink’s truck into Meyer’s driveway, I don’t know what else they could have done.

I believe Kelly was the best hire Notre Dame could make. In retrospect, Bob Davie was an assistant coach before landing South Bend job and hasn’t been in coaching since. Tyrone Willingham was a better person than a head coach and seemed better suited for underdog role as coach instead of top dog. And Charley Weis showed he could recruit skill position players and put together an offense and not much else. Kelly has built three distinct college programs at different levels. He’s not going to be warm and fuzzy, but gives them the best chance to succeed.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System-1) This won’t be a qualifying play, but one that is noteworthy. Play Against home teams like George Mason where the line is +3 to -3, off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 40-49 percent on the season. Over the last five years this comes in at 52-16 ATS.

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Oregon Ducks are 0-10 ATS versus teams shooting 45 percent or higher with a defense that holds opponents to 42 percent or lower over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Nick of the LCC loaded up on Utah Jazz at -1 in revenge spot against Lakers.

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

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Time to start checking out the College Hoops

With only one contest on the collegiate gridiron Saturday, sports bettor’s interest start to wander more specifically over to the hardwood. This is the first full weekend of televised college basketball and a number of stirring contests are on tap for watching and wagering enjoyment. If you happen to Christmas shopping or lucky enough to get to stay home while somebody else fights the crowds, take the time to get in the mood for college hoops and enjoy.

Saturday, Dec.12

Kentucky at Indiana 12:00E CBS

Coach John Calipari’s club finishes a challenging non-conference slate the last eight days taking on Indiana. Kentucky (9-0, 3-4 ATS) has defeated North Carolina and Connecticut this past week, as his young players get ready for SEC play. Coach Cal has also shown his stern side as head coach, recently reprimanding his most prized pupil John Wall. As you might expect, Wall has only heard people praising his basketball abilities since his youth and seemed genuinely shocked when Calipari expressed his opinion about his play. That sends a very positive message to vets like Patrick Patterson and Perry Stevenson and lets the other talented first year players know who is in charge. Big Blue will have to play defense against Indiana, since they are 2-7 ATS off a spread cover.

The Indiana Hoosiers (4-4 SU & ATS) are more talented than a season ago, however they are far from a finished product for coach Tom Crean. With a squad filled with young players, Indiana fans will have to take the good with the bad. Guard Maurice Creek and Christian Watford have made the steadiest contributions and the coach is thrilled about the effort Verdell Jonnes III is giving, working hard on the glass and transfer Jeremiah Rivers is adding stability in the backcourt. The Hoosiers are 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS vs. Kentucky.

Ohio State at Butler 12:00E ESPN

The Buckeyes (7-1, 6-2 ATS) got the clinching victory over Florida State 77-64 for the Big Ten in their first ever win against the ACC and moves on to face another rugged opponent, this time on the road. Ohio State’s forward Evan Turner has been a force (now injured) and Jon Diebler is emerging from early season shooting slump and burying three’s again. Coach Thad Matta’s club lacks size and 6’8 Dallas Lauderdale is doing his best to be a factor in the post. Despite tremendous start, sophomore William Buford has been lost and he could be important against balanced Butler squad. The Buckeyes are 14-4 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.

It’s not that the Bulldogs (6-3, 3-6 ATS) are playing poorly; they just weren’t playing Butler basketball. Coach Brad Stevens team may have played in the top early season tourney in Anaheim, but were sloppy in ball-handling and took far too many poor shoots in finishing with 1-2 record. In the loss against Georgetown, they shot 31.4 percent and had no answers for Hoyas center Greg Monroe. What Butler has to do is get back to basics, making the extra pass for the layup or the wide open three-ball shot. This is another big opportunity for the Bulldogs to regain stature, especially at home, if the knock off Ohio State. Butler is 20-11 ATS in non-conference games under coach Stevens.

LaSalle vs Kansas 2:00E ESPNU

Top ranked Kansas (8-0, 3-2 ATS) has not entered any tournaments the last couple of years, preferring to played selected opponents at home, on the road or at neutral sites. Everyone understood the Jayhawks talent deserved a top ranking; however teams that were supposed to push them don’t give the appearance they will. UCLA offered little resistance and upcoming games against Michigan and California might not provide the competition needed for Kansas before Big 12 play. Swingman Xavier Henry is proving to be the perfect compliment as freshman that could keep Kansas at or near the top of the ranking all season. With its high octane offense (90.4 points per game), the Jayhawks are 13-2 ATS when they score 81 or more points.

Though the crowd will be pro-Kansas in Kansas City, at least it’s not a true home game for the Jayhawks, which has to make LaSalle (6-2,2-3 ATS) feel a bit better. The Explorers do have talented individuals like guard Rodney Green, its top scorer. Kimmani Barrett and Jerrell Williams both have the ability to fill up the basket and freshman big man Aaric Murray will find out how much progress he’s made going up against Cole Aldrich. LaSalle has to maintain poise and if they do, the Explorers could improve on 19-9 ATS record as underdogs of 10 or more.

Georgetown vs Washington 2:00E FSN

This is a solid opening matchup for the John Wooden Classic in Anaheim. Georgetown (7-0, 2-1 ATS) has a trio of players that can matchup with any in the country. With Greg Monroe patrolling the paint, Austin Freeman making things happen from the wing and Chris Wright handling the rock, the Hoyas can ball. Where the view turns to 20-50 vision is when one of the trio has an off-night. Julian Vaughn has the ability to be reliable scorer and rebounder and sophomore Jason Clark has the length and quickness to be lock-down defender. The bench, what bench? G-Town is 11-19 ATS in all lined games over the last two seasons.

Coach Lorenzo Romar’s U-Dub squad is acquiring some good battle scars. Washington (6-1, 1-6 ATS) has been pushed by Wright State, Montana and lost to Texas Tech in OT, while the starters have learned to play together and a feisty bench has added a spark. Leading scorer Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas are going to be at the forefront, nonetheless junior Venoy Overton and long-range shooting reserve Elston Turner add greater flexibility for team that is 37-20 ATS away from home vs. foe outscoring opponent by eight points or more a game.

Marquette at Wisconsin 5:00E ESPN2

Shhh, quiet, if you listen intently, you can still here a couple dozen Badgers fans partying from the upset win over Duke. As per usual, nothing much was expected from Wisconsin (6-2, 3-3 ATS), however few work the chalkboard better than coach Bo Ryan. Guard Trevon Hughes is the leader of Badger attack and he is complimented by a group of players that don’t make mistakes and play defense that always leads opposing player into anther defender. This conflict is HUGE deal in the Badger State and Wisky is 25-12 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.

Marquette (7-2, 3-2 ATS) was supposed to disappear, after losing “triplets” from last season, whom all finished in the Top 10 in scoring in Golden Eagles history. But senior forward Lazar Hayward is having none of that talk. Marquette will have size issues all year, but the amount of quickness will catch more than one unassuming competitor off-guard. Darius Johnson-Odom has a nice upside and swingman Jimmy Butler finds ways to score. Coach Buzz Williams team isn’t going to win the Big East, nevertheless, they will have say. The Golden Eagles are 2-4 SU in Madison, yet have four covers. The UNDER is 6-1 in last seven encounters.

Virginia Tech at Penn State 7:00E ESPN2

No its not another Big Ten/ACC Challenge contest, this was just part of the regular scheduling between these universities. Virginia Tech (7-1, 2-4 ATS) has already claimed one Big Ten victim, Iowa, and seeks another on the road. The Hokies tend to be erratic offensively, as there are few answers beyond guard Malcolm Delaney and forward Jeff Allen. It is tantamount neither gets in foul trouble, which occurred in loss to Temple. Watch the line closely on this matchup, with Virginia Tech 3-16 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997.

The Basketball Prospectus website has come with something called the “Degree of DeChellis”. Named after the Penn State coach, it factors an element that the Nittany Lions continually out-play --per possession performance. The basic principle of this exercise is Penn State (6-3, 4-4 ATS), under DeChellis, continually outperforms year after year expectations and common game situations. He has them playing competitively, despite being out-gunned most nights. He’s not on anybody’s top coaches list, but he works with what he has as good or better than any coach. DeChellis’ teams are 6-0 ATS playing a team with a winnng record.

Purdue at Alabama 9:00E ESPN2

Purdue (8-0, 5-3 ATS) is enjoying its highest ranking in 13 years in the Top 25 and they are starting to look like are going to be the team to beat in the Big Ten. In winning the Paradise Jam and handling Wake Forest, they have shown diversity in style of play. The offense has a vast array of ways to score inside or outside and the defense can play lockdown opposing team’s offensive sets. One difference over the last couple years that has manifested itself, the Boilermakers have another gear, a Usain Bolt if you will, with E’Twaun Moore at the controls. Purdue is 6-1 ATS on the road after three or more home games.

By most accounts of those that follow SEC basketball, Alabama (6-2, 4-2 ATS) has underachieved the last several seasons, held hostage by the health of point guard Ronald Steele and former coach Mark Gottfried’s apparent inability to get the most out of team. New coach Anthony Grant is already turning a few heads with the Crimson Tide’s smarter play. He’s leaning on veteran guards like Mikhail Torrance and Charvez Davis, especially with Andrew Steele out with stress fracture. This could be early signature win Grant is looking for and the Tide is 18-7 ATS as a home underdog or pick since 1997.

Sunday, Dec.13

Cincinnati at Xavier 7:00E ESPNU

There are special rivalries all across the college basketball landscape, but when the teams are in the same city and the players facing one another in playground battles most of the year, this takes the emotion to the next level. This Queen City battle is bitter and often very physical, which suits Cincinnati (6-1, 3-2 ATS) just fine. Guard Deonta Vaughn is the unquestioned leader of this team. Yancy Gates, Rashad Bishop, Lance Stephenson, and Cashmere Wright are a stellar supporting cast. This team could be a much larger factor in the Big East than previously given credit for, especially if the lauded frosh Stephenson blossoms. The Bearcats are respectable 22-15 ATS as underdogs.

Xavier basketball has been on a high plane the last few years, averaging better than 27 wins per season, and former assistant Chris Mack is entrusted with keeping the program rolling. Guard Jordan Crawford and center Jason Love are the leading scorers for the Musketeers (5-3, 4-3 ATS), however beyond this twosome; points are iffy game in and game out. In losses to Baylor, Marquette and Kansas State, Xavier shot below 38 percent. The Musketeers have won eight of last 12 encounters (7-4-1 ATS), including five of last six at home (3-3 ATS).

Army vs Navy

This will be the 110th renewal of this historic rivalry on Saturday afternoon at Lincoln Financial Field. In Philadelphia, the game is neutral in the truest sense, being roughly equidistant from the two academies. Navy is currently working on a seven-game winning streak in the series, the longest ever in the rich history. Overall, the Midshipmen own a 53-49-7 edge all time.

This battle takes on greater emotional significance with country’s involvement in the world and when the two schools march in to take their place in the stadium, it is one of the coolest moments you will ever see before a game starts.

This contest has more than usual riding on it, especially for Army (5-6, 3-7 ATS). First year coach Rick Ellerson was brought in to change the football aspect of the Black Knights, who had won as many as four games once in the last dozen seasons before this year. With an upset win over Navy, Army would secure first bowl bid since 1996 and take on Temple in the EagleBank Bowl.

Besides attempting to end that drought, the pain of not defeating the Midshipmen since 2001 (1-6 ATS) hangs over West Point like an omnipresent cloud. The biggest problem for Army of late has been scoring points, as they’ve produced just 10.1 points per game during the losing skid. Ordinarily, you would think rest and preparation would benefit any football squad, however if you are outmanned, it doesn’t matter. The Black Knights of the Hudson are unthinkable 3-24 ATS with rest.

For Navy (8-4, 5-5-1 ATS), it is business as usual. They have already locked up Texas Bowl bid against Missouri and for the third consecutive year and fifth in the last six, are double digit favorites vs. their biggest rival. (Bookmaker.com has the Middies at -15.5, with total of 41.5).

The Midshipmen have one very distinct advantage in this matchup, they can score. Navy averages 28.3 points per game, behind the nation’s third best rushing attack, averaging 279.6 yards per game. Navy is off a 24-17 upset loss at Hawaii as nine-point favorites and is 35-13 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread.

Army on the other hand struggles to score points, totaling just 16.5 per game, ranking 116th in total offense at 283.4 yards per game against opponents that allowed 91 more yards a contest. This means Army will need to force turnovers and win the special teams battle to setup better field position, since they are unlikely to put together many long drives, no matter how fired up they are. They are just 4-13 ATS when the total is 42 or less.

Over the years, this contest has lost significance in the public eye for a variety of reasons and the two institutions worked out a deal with CBS to rekindle the spirit and give it its own special date, the second Saturday in December, away from conference championships and BCS chatter.

No matter the outcome, the effort will not be question. If anyone saw the Navy beat Notre Dame or the Army knock off Vanderbilt from the SEC this season, these players go hard for all 60 minutes. To the winners go the spoils and bragging rights that last an entire year. Should Navy win, the Commander in Chief Trophy stays with them yet again.

3DWLine – Navy by 16

Steve Makinen of the Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Browns try to add to Pittsburgh's problems

Already blanked at home by a division rival in prime time, the Browns get another crack to show the nation how hopeless they are when they host Pittsburgh in a Thursday night tilt on the NFL Network. Cleveland (1-11, 6-6 ATS), a 16-0 loser at home to Baltimore on Monday night in Week 10, has dropped 12 straight against the Steelers (3-9 ATS) and are 1-18 and 6-11-2 ATS against Pittsburgh, including its only playoff game in the past decade.

Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin vowed to “unleash hell in December” after the loss to the Ravens in Week 12 and the Oakland Raiders channeled former AC/DC front man Bon Scott and found out “Hell ain’t a bad place to be” in stunning 27-24 road upset as 15-point underdogs.

Pittsburgh (4-8 ATS) is in great danger of missing the playoffs at 6-6 and facing three difficult remaining games, the defending champs are in a must-win state. That shouldn’t be a concern this week, as win-often is something the Steelers have done in Cleveland, eight straight times while going 4-2-2 ATS.

Coach Tomlin has seen enough. "We can't stay status quo in terms of how we're approaching this and expect the pattern of behavior or outcome to change," Tomlin said. "That's unrealistic. That's hoping. This is not a hope business." Expect to see changes in the secondary, especially at cornerback, where the Steelers have been beaten. All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu will likely miss his fourth straight game with a knee problem and rookie receiver Mike Wallace will start if Hines Wards as presumed can’t go with a bad hamstring. The Steelers are 21-9-2 ATS as division road team.

The Steelers took a messy first meeting with the Browns, 27-14, at Heinz Field behind 417 yards passing from Ben Roethlisberger. The Week 6 game featured eight turnovers—four by each team—but that’s about the only area the statistics were even. The Steelers outgained the Browns 543-197, enjoyed a 28-12 difference in first downs and held the ball for almost 37 minutes.

That victory for the defending Super Bowl champs was their third during a five-game winning streak, but a rough three-game stretch followed and put them squarely on the playoff bubble. Pittsburgh’s loss in Kansas City in Week 11 was particularly disturbing because it rolled up 233 more yards than the Chiefs and saw Roethlisberger wobble off the field in overtime with a concussion that kept him out of a key showdown at Baltimore, which also ended with a defeat in overtime.

The Steelers were in a similar position in 2005 when they won their last four regular-season games to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, then went on to win three times on the road in the postseason and beat Seattle in the Super Bowl. Repeating that accomplishment doesn’t seem likely, though it’s entirely possible they’ll be favored to win each of their remaining games. After this trip to the Dawg Pound they play Green Bay and Baltimore at home before closing at Miami. Coming into the season, the Steelers were 7-2 ATS as road favorite off a SU loss; however they have failed to win or cover in two attempts in 2009.

The Browns still are not winning, nevertheless positive signs are emerging. They have beaten the oddsmakers three consecutive times, as Brady Quinn has played more than adequate football, throwing for over 255 yards in two of last three games and hasn’t thrown an interception in that time. Cleveland is 10-4 ATS at home off a home game.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Pittsburgh as 10-point favorites; however, they are just 2-6 ATS in last eight double-digit favorite roles under Tomlin, following the loss to the Raiders Sunday, including 0-4 against the number this season.

Cleveland has won just one of its last dozen games vs. AFC North foes (4-8 ATS) and is trying to snap a 10-game home losing streak. They are 2-7-1 ATS at home since unthinkable Monday night 35-14 upset of the then defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. After last week’s 30-23 loss to San Diego, the Brownies are 23-12-1 ATS after scoring 23 or more points.

Bettors have hit the total hard, taking it from opening 37.5 to 33. Pittsburgh is 13-4 UNDER in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite and Cleveland is 7-13-1UNDER as a division home dawg.

It will be the usual 8:20 Eastern starting time for this AFC North matchup on the NFL Network, with the UNDER 7-0 on Thursday’s this season.

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Scheduling and odds to making the Super Bowl

With one quarter of the season remaining in the NFL, the pretenders and contenders are sorting their way out. This week we’ll take a look at the prospects of the main contenders for the 12 available spots in the postseason and what their current odds are to win their respective conferences are. As is always the case in the NFL, one injury or loss can completely change how a team is viewed and seeing I don’t work for MSNBC or Fox News, I can’t predict the future nearly as well as they do. Thus, I will use my knowledge of the facts and extrapolate them.

The New Orleans Saints are -125 to win the NFC and are on pace to make history. As great as the Tom Brady and the New England Patriots were in 2007, the Saints appear better in some ways. They have a greater diversification of weapons and can play different styles to beat opponents. Drew Brees and Sean Payton are in that Bill Walsh/Joe Montana oneness of mind, thinking up schemes that free up players to catch passes and open chasms for running backs is artistic in the football sense. The Saints still have to play all three division foes and they have a good history at Atlanta and at Carolina. They have Dallas in Week 15, which is toughest remaining test. New Orleans should stay focused with Minnesota directly behind them.

There are three leading candidates for MVP, but only one is 40 years old and arguably is having his best season. The season has to play out, but no one player has impacted his team more in a positive sense than No.4. Minnesota is +140 at DiamondSportsbook.com to take the NFC crown and Brett Favre has made a pedestrian receiving core well above average and taken pressure off Adrian Peterson. The defense is still improving and extremely fast on the carpet. Minnesota’s two toughest games remaining are at the Metrodome in Week 14 and 17 vs. Cincinnati and the Giants. They will be road favorites at Carolina and Chicago.

With the Cowboys putrid record in last four games of the regular season (11-25 SU, 12-23-1 ATS last nine years), this year’s slate isn’t conducive to winning either. In order, Dallas takes on San Diego, at New Orleans, at Washington and Philadelphia. Now tied for first place in the NFC East, the Cowboys are listed as +1500 to take conference.

The defending NFC champions Arizona (+700) should improve on last year’s 9-7 record facing San Francisco, Detroit and St. Louis the next three weeks (the first two as visitors) and if all goes as presumed, their last game of the year might mean something to Green Bay.

The wild card picture at the moment has four teams for two spots. Atlanta has a chance, but they have to win out. The Falcons last three games are all winnable, at the Jets, Buffalo and at Tampa Bay. It’s this week’s game at the Georgia Dome vs. the Saints that might be the determining factor. The Giants still have a lot of work to do and division games against the Eagles, at the Redskins and at Minnesota make this a real challenge. After this past week, the Giants (+2000) and Atlanta (+5000) odds have been adjusted significantly.

If Green Bay (+2000) fails to meet expectations, the loss at than 0-7 Tampa Bay will haunt them. The Packers are the only NFC team in the playoff hunt that has to play three of last four encounters on the road. They have the rival Bears in Chi-town on a short week and also have trips to Pittsburgh and Arizona. At least one win will be required to make the postseason.

Philadelphia (+1000) theoretically has the most challenging remaining schedule with all four opponents still alive the postseason. Included are division excursions to the Giants and Dallas, with San Francisco and Denver in the City of Brotherly Love.

In the AFC, part of equation is virtually complete. The Indianapolis Colts have already started talk of resting players to get them healthy for the postseason. This is common practice for the Colts, who play three of the last four contests at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indianapolis is -140 wager to represent their conference, yet how often has a team been on cruise control in the latter part of the season and faltered before Super Bowl. Only once have the Colts won division and had a bye week and even advanced to AFC title tilt, which they lost in 2004.

The next closest contenders on this side of the bracket appear to be Cincinnati (+500) and San Diego (+350). These two clubs are in contention for the second seed and bye and their week 15 matchup at Qualcomm Stadium just might be the deciding factor. Before then the Bengals have to navigate a tough trip the land of 10,000 frozen lakes and go up against the team in purple. If Cincy lost at Minnesota but wins at San Diego, they might be fine with last two games vs. Kansas City and at the Jets. The offense needs to pick up scoring, as they have totaled more than 20 points just twice in last eight affairs.

The Chargers have been playing tremendous football and will have to keep playing the same with the rest of their schedule. This week it’s a dandy at Dallas, followed by the aforementioned Bengals bout. That is followed by adventure to Tennessee, who is not going quietly and the Bolts finish at home against Washington, who is playing everybody tough.

It started last year, but this is not the same New England team that 18-0 before losing in the Super Bowl in 2007. This team has several defensive holes and the front office might looks to have erred in trading Richard Seymour, whose presents likely would have covered up secondary flaws. The Patriots are +700, however that seems based on reputation more than current status. Nonetheless, they should close the season 4-0 with their schedule.

Denver should do no worse than the top wild card and still is in contention for AFC West crown. Expect them to win last two home games against Oakland and Kansas City. Their ultimate destination will be determined by how they perform at Indianapolis this week and in two weeks at Philadelphia. The Broncos are the second longest shot to win the AFC of contenders at +2000.

The team the oddsmakers or fans don’t like is Jacksonville and for good reason. The Jaguars (+5000) average 18.7 points per game and surrender 22.7, yet 7-5 record has them in the hunt for extra playing time. The Washington Redskins at 3-9 have a better score differential (-38 vs. -48). The Jags will have to navigate thru Miami and Indy at home and finish at New England and at Cleveland to help decide their fate.

Baltimore has the scheduling edge over Pittsburgh for wild card berth, but chances are the week 16 meeting between these physical rivals at Heinz Field will determine each ones fate. The Ravens have three pushovers in Chicago, Detroit and Oakland, with the first two at home and latter against Raiders team who will probably have bags packed for the season BEFORE the game.

The Steelers win at Cleveland, but have curious matchups with the Packers at home and at Miami to close 16-game slate. Despite this, the Steelers as defending Super Bowl champions are +1200 compared to Baltimore +1500.

It’s possible a team not mentioned here could finish the season 4-0 and one or more of these other teams could falter; however there is no evidence to suggest that will happen.

Jimmy V Classic offers you ways to help

Tonight on ESPN, the worldwide leader will spread some good will. There are two basketball games to watch from Madison Square Garden offering wagering options on the side and total. In addition, you can watch the stimulating Jim Valvano speech yet again and have it be a reminder that in some way cancer either has or will touch all of our lives. Enjoy the games and enjoy the speech and give a little if you can afford to towards cancer research.

Butler vs Georgetown 7:00 E

Remember the Cinderella story of George Mason’s Final Four appearance, another such tale could be brewing in Indiana. The Butler Bulldogs (6-2, 3-5 ATS) are no longer just a cute team that gets padded on the head for the old college try. Forward Gordon Hayward has NBA ability, and Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard are high-level college players. Coach Brad Stevens is not far from a bigger house in a high rent conference. Watch this team defense, they give nothing away. Butler is 20-10 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons.

No. 15 Georgetown (6-0, 1-1 ATS) arrives in the Big Apple without a loss, playing a schedule that has helped build momentum, but not tested the Hoyas. Georgetown’s main asset is Greg Monroe as big man, who doesn’t necessarily dominate, but is skilled in all facets of basketball, making him the ideal player for coach John Thompson III system. It will be curious to watch how guards Austin Freeman and Chris Wright play against Butler, as neither has played consistently to this juncture. Having faced very beatable opponents, the Hoyas are 11-2 ATS away from home after four straight wins by 10 points or more.

Bookmaker.com has Butler as 2.5-point underdogs with total of 127. The 22nd ranked Bulldogs have lost eight of their last nine against Top-25 opponents and can’t have Howard get in foul trouble like he did in 76 Classic, where they lost suffered both losses. Butler is only 1-6 ATS in last seven neutral site contests.

Without question Georgetown is the more athletic squad and they will depend on their defense that is allowing 53.2 points per game, mostly against inferior competition. The Hoyas are 5-14 ATS after playing a game as favorite and 3-13 ATS after they allowed opposing team to shoot 33 percent or less over the last three seasons.

Indiana vs Pittsburgh 9:20E

Approximately 20 minutes after the first game is completed, the Hoosiers and Panthers will do battle. Indiana (3-4 SU & ATS) had believed they were going to be a great deal better this season after just six victories a year ago, however, against better competition that has not been the case thus far. The Hoosiers are far more talented than a season ago, but extremely young. Verdell Jones III has played the best of the sophomores and freshman Maurice Creek has been a dependable scorer, along with Bobby Capobianco at the four-slot. The Hoosiers lost their last game 80-68 at home against Maryland, shooting a season low 32.9 percent. They do have players with quickness, averaging nine steals a game and are 5-1 ATS after losing by 10 or more points at home.

Dating back to 2001, Pittsburgh (7-1, 2-4-1 ATS) has always had the linkage of two to three returning players, which has led to Panthers owning the most victories in the Big East in the last five years, until now. Guard Brad Wanamaker is carrying his share of the scoring load and 6’10 Gary McGhee has been a force in the paint. The Panthers still play physical brand of basketball, averaging 24 free throws a game (only 63.4 percent made) and have a +7 rebound margin. Pitt is 8-1 ATS versus teams who average nine or more steals a game over the last three seasons.

Pittsburgh is a 7.5-point favorite, with a total of 132 and is meager 8-19 ATS playing against a marginal losing team with win percentage of 40 to 50 percent.

Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror

The old story about defenses winning championships has held up to the test of time. On weekly basis this can also be the case, when defensive failures lead to losses. Two teams Sunday that have set high standards this decade were victims to such occurrences.

The defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers have lost four in a row and are not getting much done defensively. The numbers still show the Steelers are among the best in football, but against the Oakland Raiders Sunday, they looked more like the Cleveland Browns.

The Steelers held THREE fourth quarter leads against the Raiders and couldn’t hold any of them. The new sensational pitch and catch tandem of Bruce Gradkowski and Louis Murphy was unstoppable. When you consider Pittsburgh was a 15-point favorite and Oakland had three total touchdowns in the last quarter in 11 previous games this season, it’s shocking how far the Steelers have fallen since destroying Denver on Nov. 9.

For all the Bill Belichick apologists that felt he made the right move in going for first down at Indianapolis, subsequent losses to New Orleans and Miami have suddenly made the AFC East race more compelling with a month to go. The New England defense isn’t holding up, so maybe Belichick was right and followed his beliefs. This past weekend, Chad Henne went toe to toe with Tom Brady and his team emerged victorious. The other former Michigan quarterback threw for 335 yards against Patriots secondary.

With inferior talent on the last line of defense, New England has been lit up officially for 316, 367 and 328 yards passing in three of the four weeks. The trade of DE Richard Seymour is looking worse all the time, as the Pats have no pass rush. About the only good news is the remaining schedule includes Carolina, @ Buffalo, Jacksonville and @Houston. They should be favored in each and have excellent chance to be paper champs at 11-5, but certainly not feared.

The Dallas Cowboys December woes have been well documented, but what kind of a game plan was that on Sunday in the Meadowlands? Tony Romo was asked to throw 55 times against the Giants. If the Cowboys were trailing 17-0 at the end of the first quarter and were not having much luck catching up, that figure would at least have some credibility. However that wasn’t the case, at all. Dallas trailed by just seven points midway thru the fourth quarter, which was their largest deficit to that point in the game. Having one of the best running games in the NFL, they ran a ridiculous 23 times and played like they were the underdog instead of the favorite. The Dallas coaches get a D- for first Cowboys effort in December with San Diego up next.

If you have ever had your hand slammed by a door, that was similar to the pain Cincinnati backers felt when Detroit back-doored the 13-point favored Bengals with 96 seconds to play.

On Monday and Tuesday, the Tennessee Titans looked like a good bet at Indianapolis, catching seven points. Late Tuesday or Wednesday day depending on the sportsbook, the Titans went to +6.5. By Friday, most of the public money was on Tennessee and according to Las Vegas sources, a good chunk of sharp action was also backing Jeff Fisher’s club. A quick perusal of some forums over the weekend that have handicappers picks listed, showed the Titans as a 25-1 choice, easily the highest I’d seen all season, this going against an unbeaten team playing at home. The rest is history as the Colts covered rather easily.

There are points in a game where it makes sense to go for touchdowns as opposed to field goals and unquestionably having the advantage of looking back offers far greater clarity than living in the moment. Twice coach Fisher went for first down and or touchdowns and failed trying to lower a 24-10 deficit. Looking back, if he would have kicked very makeable field goals from short distances, Tennessee would have trailed just 24-16, still having time to make up the eight points.

Pop the Falcons out of the microwave, they are done.

It was a wild Sunday for bettors, as 10 underdogs covered the spread, which included six of those pooches winning outright. Friends on the Strip tell me it was easily the most profitable NFL weekend of the year, which was made all that much sweeter by Arizona’s easy upset victory over Minnesota.

New England loss wiped out a vast number of parlays and New Orleans decision to kick a field goal in overtime after taking it all the way down to one yard line destroyed six-point parlay cards. As a Las Vegas source told me, “The bean counters will be sending out rare positive emails to their least favorite aspect of the casino.”

Do it up this Monday

Similar to the public backing a team, sometimes professional bettors are too smart for themselves and I felt it coming on Tennessee yesterday, which ended our streak of 2-1 days. One of the guys from the Left Coast Connection was extra sharp on Sunday and goes for perfect NFL weekend with his Free Monday night play. The Top Trend is in college hoops at over 85 percent and the Best System is in the NBA and just misses as qualifying. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- I’m starting to think I’m in the minority on this topic, but I don’t know any female that Tiger Woods has slept with. I’m starting to feel a little self conscious.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System-1) See Spurs and Jazz system below.

Free Basketball Trend-2) The College of Charleston is 18-3 ATS in road December games since 1997.

Free Football Pick -3) Nick of the LCC was 5-0 yesterday in the NFL and looks to make it a perfect weekend with the Packers tonight.

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

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Baltimore at Green Bay Monday night matchup

Green Bay and Baltimore share wildcard aspirations in their respective conferences. The teams will go head-to-head at Lambeau Field on Monday night to wrap up the Week 13 slate, each hoping it turns out to be lucky. The Packers are 7-4 and facing a two-game road trip following this one, placing a premium on gaining a victory here.

Green Bay (6-4-1 ATS) has come a long way since a loss to previously winless Tampa Bay in Week 8 dropped them to .500. Their convincing 34-12 victory at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day was their third in a row and improved their chances in a wild-card race sure to come down to the wire as usual. They will come into this contest 24-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers tied a career-high with three touchdown passes and comes into Monday night’s game at Lambeau Field against Baltimore in a serious groove with 881yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions since the defeat to the Buccaneers. It should also be noted he’s been doing a better job in getting rid of the ball instead of holding onto it and has been sacked only three times in the last two games working behind a much-maligned offensive line that gave up 41 sacks through nine contests. He’s thrown an interception in only three games all year, and his 22-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 104.9 rating are among the best in the NFL.

The re-signing of tackle Mark Tauscher has solidified the offensive line and the combination of understanding Dom Capers defense better and facing a series of weak offenses has led to Green Bay having No.1 total defense coming into Week 13 and they are 14-4 ATS at home after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. Cornerback Charles Woodson is seemingly only getting better instead of older and his team is 11-1 ATS at the frozen tundra vs. squads outscoring opponents by six or more points per game after eight contests have been played during the season.

For Baltimore (6-5 SU & ATS), this is their third prime-time game in four weeks. The last time they played on Monday their defense pitched a shutout at lowly Cleveland but the offense struggled to put points on the board. One of their two touchdowns in the 16-point victory was a pick six by Dawan Landry. Last Sunday night’s overtime win over Pittsburgh put them a game over .500, but they’ve produced just 58 points over the past month. The Ravens have been consistent money-makers with 21-10 ATS record in last 31 contests.

This week could ultimately determine if Baltimore returns to the playoffs following an appearance in the AFC Championship Game last season. After the Packers only one of its last four opponents has a winning record (Steelers) and the other three (Lions, Bears and Raiders) are floundering.

The Ravens need to get back to stretching defenses, and with pass-rushing linebacker Aaron Kampman and cornerback Al Harris missing from Green Bay’s lineup it’ll be up to offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to turn second-year quarterback Joe Flacco loose. Flacco completed only two touchdown passes in five November games and also had three sub-200-yard efforts. The Ravens own a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS mark vs. non-conference foes under John Harbaugh and their next three games are against NFC North opponents.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Green Bay as 3.5-point favorites, with total of 42.5, but they are just 2-5 SU (4-3 ATS) on Monday night under Mike McCarthy. The Packers will have had what accounts for almost a bye week before this one, with it being 11 days since dumping Detroit on Turkey Day and teams like the Pack are 18-7-1 OVER in next outing if they beat a division team on a Thursday. Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in last 10 road underdog assignments and 10-2 OVER as a visitor catching seven points or less.

Baltimore covers if they run the ball and control the clock. Their running attack is 14th in the league and they will take on the Packers defense which is fourth against the run. That means finding which of their three backs is the most effective vs. the Pack and go at them. Ravens’ coaches have to expect Green Bay will send pressure, as the offensive line did a poor job last week against Pittsburgh. They will have to clean this up to give Flacco time to work the ball downfield. Baltimore has to bring heavy pressure on Rodgers and force him to make quick decisions or have him revert to holding the ball, keeping the Ravens in positive down and distance situations that help pull the upset.

Green Bay covers if they stone the Birds running game and Woodson eliminates Derrick Mason. That leaves Flacco with few options and makes blitz packages more effective. Teams that have beaten Baltimore have chosen one method to start the game, either heavy run or heavy pass. Whichever way McCarthy chooses, stick with it to test for success and eventually take deep shots against ordinary secondary. If Baltimore decides to bring defensive pressure, utilize two tight end sets giving Rodgers a down the field threat for having to make quick throw.

Monday Night System – Play Against any road underdog that has failed to cover last two games. (21-10 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

NBA Monday Systems

With college football taking a short sabbatical before the bowl games commence, the NBA will take a greater role in the minds of the public. We start a new week with increased focus on the hardwood and besides its comforting to know former NBA referee Tim Donaghy says he refused to make calls to affect games even if it meant he lost money and it angered those paying him. Thanks, Tim. Numbers from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Denver at Philadelphia (+6, 216)

The Nuggets have won three in a row and seven of last eight (6-2 ATS), with its top-ranked offense scoring at least 100 points in every single contest. Tonight is Denver’s second road tilt on a four-game trip and they are healthy road favorites. When a team is giving 3.5 to 9.5 points after a combined score of 205 points or more in four straight games, they are nicely profitable 30-11 ATS since 2005.

Portland at New York (-4.5, 203)

It not like the Trailblazers are not used to it, but at some point you have to wonder about big men in Portland. A generation ago, Sam Bowie was supposed to lead Portland and he suffered an injury-plagued career. Now Greg Oden is taking on the same characteristics, out again for the season, this time with broken left kneecap. Portland once again has to move on, however tonight is not the most favorable position. The Blazers stopped Houston 90-89 Saturday and teams that won last game by six or less points and face opponent that has scored 100 or more in four straight contests are 15-40 ATS the last 13 years.

Golden State at Oklahoma City (-7, 222)

There are positives building for the Thunder, sporting winning record (10-9) with a nucleus of young talent. One of Oklahoma City’s strengths in the first quarter of the season has been defense, allowing 95.4 points per game (7th). The last few games they have lost an edge on that end of the floor, allowing teams to break the century mark in three consecutive contests. In comes Golden State who ranks second in the NBA in scoring at 109.8 points per game. Here we find underdogs averaging 103 or more points a game on the season, facing opponent after allowing 100 points or more three straight games, are 38-15 ATS.

San Antonio at Utah (-1.5, 191.5)

As usual, the Jazz are among the best shooting teams in the NBA at 49.5 percent, second only to Boston. Utah shot the ball well in Minnesota on Saturday night, but was horrible defensively in allowing the Timberwolves to convert 57.1 percent of shot attempts in 108-101 defeat. This could benefit the Jazz tonight, as teams that shoot 48 percent or higher on the season, after a game allowing a shooting percentage of 55 percent or higher are 27-7 ATS, winning by over six points a game.

Let's knock'em Sunday

We fashioned our third straight 2-1 day, which is great, however still pushing for that 3-0 figure. Let’s begin hopefully another Best System play that is 29-5 ATS the last five years. The Top System is in an AFC South matchup and the Free Play will be here momentarily or as soon as I get it posted. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today – That getting up this early after hosting a Christmas party, I don’t have my usual wit and charm. (Some of you might question that to begin with) What I’m trying to say is I’m tired.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road teams like Tampa Bay after one or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning percentage of 25 percent or less of their games, in the second half of the season. This baby comes in at 29-5 ATS, 85.3 percent since 2005. (3-0 TY)

Free Football Trend-2) The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-12 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Fifteen members of the Left Coast Connection are on Tennessee with nobody taking the Colts. Honestly, I find that curious.

Wagering Info for Week 13 of the NFL

December not only brings the cold winds and frigid temperatures, but a frosty end to many professional teams playoff hopes. The New York Giants are among those that have to come up with a winner, especially playing rival Dallas at home. In a conflict Alfred Hitchcock would enjoy, it’s the battle of birds down south. For the Eagles and Falcons, it’s about finding healthy players to perform. Houston blew two leads at home to all but crush their playoff dreams, now they will try and do the same to Jacksonville on the road before all 30,000 Jags fans. Tennessee is living the dream and is halfway to finishing the year 10-0, facing unbeaten Indianapolis. Coach Bill Belichick has been served a piece of humble pie besides the usual pumpkin and will look to regroup in Miami to start an extended winning streak.

Philadelphia at Atlanta 1:00E FOX

The Eagles and Falcons are two of the handful of teams in contention for the NFC Wildcard spots, so a loss in this head-to-head matchup would be devastating for either. If history is any indication, Atlanta could be in trouble, as Philadelphia (6-5 ATS) owns a 7-3 SU & 8-1-1 ATS edge in the last 10 games of the series. However, most of those matchups were in Philly, evidenced by the fact that the home team is on a 6-1 SU & ATS run in that span. The Falcons are in the middle of a three-game homestand and are 6-5 after beating Tampa Bay. They are 7-4 ATS in 2009, including 4-1 ATS at home. The Eagles, 7-4, begin a critical two-game road set in this one, with the next stop in the Meadowlands. The head-to-head series between these teams has also been low scoring, with seven of the previous going UNDER.

Keys to the Game-

In this confrontation of attrition, Philadelphia has the edge, having worked through it. No Brian Westbrook, rookie LeSean McCoy has stepped right in and looked comfortable. Explosive DeSean Jackson out, another rookie Jeremy Maclin steps in. Coach Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have to work better in the red zone, as K David Akers needs to make appearances for extra points, not field goals. The Eagles too often have played to level of competition, with Falcons missing offensive firepower, go win the game in the first half and stop dawdling like last week against Washington. If they don’t, Eagles are unlikely to improve upon December record of 2-10 ATS on the road against non-division team with revenge.

Backup Chris Redman will make his 11th career start filling in for Matt Ryan and has to keep his head from spinning all the way around with the dizzying array of blitzes he is certain to face. Be confident, make the right read and hit the hot receiver. The Falcons offensive line will have to be a difference-maker against 8th ranked run defense. Yes Michael Turner is out and Jerious Norwood is dinged, but they have to create running lanes for plugger Jason Snelling to run thru or 4-14 ATS mark as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points is a distinct possibility. The front four has to step up to protect 27th ranked pass defense.

3DW Line – Philadelphia by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -5, 43.5

Houston at Jacksonville 1:00E CBS

The Jaguars and Texans both maintain wildcard hopes but it is getting late for Houston (5-5-1 ATS), who is 5-6 after losing to Indianapolis. They are now 1-4 in divisional games this season, including a 31-24 home loss to Jacksonville back in September. That sets up a nice spot for head coach Gary Kubiak’s team who is on a 16-6 ATS run revenging a loss where the opponents topped the 28-point mark. Coach Jack Del Rio’s team is off another horrible trip west, a 20-3 setback to the 49ers which dropped their record to 6-5. This starts a three-game homestand for the Jaguars (4-7 ATS), who are desperate to improve a 2-11 ATS slide in home games over the last season-and-a-half. Houston, who has played surprisingly well on the road, 7-2 ATS in its last nine and is also 5-2 ATS at Jacksonville since 2002.

Keys to the Game-

For whatever reason, quarterback Matt Schaub seems more comfortable on the road than at Reliant Stadium. The Texans score 26.2 points per game away from Houston and 21.3 at home. Schaub has the ability to help his team win three road games in a row, but must avoid throwing interceptions and fumbling like last week to give his club a chance. The Texans are 16-7-1 ATS off consecutive spread losses and have to lower pad level to contain Maurice Jones-Drew or he will run wild vs. defense that allows 4.8 yards per carry (31st).

Jacksonville is being dissed in spite of winning record, however when you have allowed 53 more points than you’ve scored, scrutiny is sure to follow. The Jaguars pass defense ranks 26th, but Texas will have third new starter this season at left tackle, which means load up on that side and pressure Schaub’s backside. The Jags are 1-8 ATS at home against AFC opponents since last year and can turn that number around by getting Jones-Drew started early in piling up yards and deflating Houston’s spirit. Jacksonville is really the team with something to play for and has to protect David Garrard, since they are 4-15 SU when he is sacked three times or more.

3DW Line – Houston by 7
Bookmaker.com Line – Houston -2.5, 47

Tennessee at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS

When Indianapolis and Tennessee last met, the Titans were a different team. The Colts’ win in that contest sent coach Jeff Fisher’s team to 0-5, but since eventually dropping six straight, Tennessee (5-6, 5-5-1 ATS) has come alive, winning its last five games to climb back into playoff picture. This one, in Indy, will be their most difficult task remaining as well, and a three-game homestand is next on tap. The Colts (11-0, 7-4 ATS) have won five of last six games when hosting Tennessee, and are 4-2 ATS in that span. However, they are just 2-7 ATS in their previous nine as a divisional host and 1-4 ATS at home in ’09 overall. Looking to remain perfect, head man Jim Caldwell’s team plays three of its final five games at home. The Titans wrap up their divisional slate this week and are 2-3 SU and ATS vs. AFC South foes.

Keys to the Game-

Adrian Peterson might be the best running back in the NFL; nevertheless the hottest is Titans Chris Johnson. The former East Carolina star is the league’s leading rusher at 1,396 yards and is on streak of 125 or more yards in last six contests. Ideally, Tennessee would prefer Johnson to grind out consistent yardage to keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines, but going the distance for six is solid alternative. Vince Young is an incredible story no matter who decided to make him starter. Each game he develops another phase and could give Colts a headache if he leaves the pocket, running or throwing for first downs. Tennessee will be better prepared defensively having complete secondary back, which wasn’t the case in the first matchup. Frustrate Indy into kicking field goals and Titans could march to 10-0 ATS in road games after four or more consecutive non-losses against the spread.

The Colts may be 11-0, but the Titans are hot. Manning had four interceptions in first seven games, but has seven picks in last four. No need to give piping-hot club a reason to feel better about itself. With no Bob Sanders at safety, the job likely falls to Melvin Bullitt to “spy” Young. He has to be physical and remember to take the legs of the tall Texan to prevent big plays. Tennessee is only 4-13 ATS versus excellent offensive teams averaging 375 or more yards per game, put the pressure on their offense to match points by scoring on each possession if possible. Indy linebackers are mostly faceless; however they will have to be at their best to control the speedy Johnson.

3DW Line – Indianapolis by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line –Indianapolis -6.5, 46

New England at Miami 1:00E CBS

Miami’s (5-6 SU & ATS) playoff hopes took a crushing blow when it lost in Buffalo 31-14. They may be relegated now to the spoiler role, and will try to do just that to New England’s quest to obtain the AFC’s #2 seed in the postseason. For coach Tony Sparano’s team, it was a first divisional ATS loss of the year (3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS). The Patriots (7-4, 6-5 ATS) are 3-1 in division game so far but just 1-3 ATS. Their only loss was at the Jets in Week 2, which snapped a six-game SU & ATS winning streak on the road vs. AFC East foes. This is their second meeting of the season with New England having won the first at home last month, 27-17, failing to cover an 11-point spread. Favorites are on an 8-3 SU and ATS run in the last 11 matchups between these rivals in Miami, and the Dolphins are 2-5 SU & ATS as a home dog under Sparano.

Keys to the Game –

It was a rare sight indeed, coach Belichick waving the proverbial white flag in having Tom Brady take a seat this past Monday night in New Orleans. The disappointment was so profound, Brady felt compelled to issue statement - "the mourning period is over", this past Wednesday. This is not Patriots team of earlier this decade, yet they still could win next five games and possibly earn second seed, starting with win in Miami. New England has to let Saints loss go and focus on Ricky Williams, who has raised his level of play since Ronnie Brown went down, having at least 100 yards with three touchdowns in each of the past three games. The Pats are puny 1-4 on the road this season with two covers and better be ready to wrap up Williams if they expect to move to 40-21 ATS in road games versus division opponents.

Coach Sparano is emotional leader and a few times it seems those emotions have gotten the best of him in making questionable decisions that cost the Dolphins who have a thin margin for error. Having tricks and surprises is part of being a good coach, but taking chances for lesser rewards won’t have you beat New England. Joey Porter and the Miami defense generated six sacks last week, but none were important in the “clutch” context of the game, which led to Buffalo upset. The defense can sack Brady on first down, but if they allow him to complete third down pass for first down, it was all for naught. The Fins are just 5-16 ATS at Landshark Stadium since 2007.

3DWLine – New England by 6
Bookmaker.com Line – New England -4, 46

Dallas at N.Y. Giants 4:15E FOX

New York already won in Dallas in Week 2. Another victory over the Cowboys at home gets the Giants (6-5, 5-6 ATS) back into the race for the NFC East title. Currently Tom Coughlin’s team trails Dallas by two games in the standings, with Philadelphia sandwiched in between. The Eagles are next up for the Giants at the Meadowlands, so this is a critical homestand for New York. Both teams are 2-1 in divisional play so far in ’09. At 8-3, the Cowboys (6-5 ATS) face a brutal five-game season ending schedule and haven’t had a winning post-Thanksgiving campaign since 2004, with unimposing 4-14-3 ATS record in that span. New York is 21-9 ATS under Coughlin vs. offenses gaining 350 or more yards per game. Favorites have won the last four games between these teams in New Jersey and are 4-0-1 ATS. Six of last eight have gone OVER at Giants home.

Keys to the Game-

It’s about time Dallas puts together a December to remember, instead of how they have failed the last decade (17-29 SU L10Y). It begins with the offensive line, they’ve helped Cowboys to No.6 rushing attack (138 YPG), but Tony Romo has already been sacked a career-high 25 times. The Giants sack numbers are down, but they are wholly capable. The Dallas secondary was toasted 330 yards passing in the first meeting however has improved considerably, now up to 14th in yards per pass attempt. The Giants passing game has been mostly ineffective, save the win over Atlanta, there only W in last six outings. Cover up receivers and pressure Eli Manning. Cowboys have to attack aggressively to shake the doldrums of the final month of the season, yet they are measly 10-21-1 ATS on the road off two SU wins.

The Giants have lost their offensive identity. New York is designed to be running team first and in five opening victories they averaged 36 carries per game. In the subsequent six contests, they averaged just over 24 attempts. Don’t blame it trailing in losses, as they’ve had a second half lead in three of their last encounters. In the NFL, when things are not going well, they tend to snowball and Brandon Jacobs might be Giants only healthy running back. Manning could use the help as he has a stress condition in his right foot, which could account for accuracy issues. The G-Men are 13-4 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons and D-Line has to bother Romo throughout to protect tremulous secondary.

3DW Line – Dallas by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -1.5, 45.5

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.