Let the Bowls Begin.....and Hoops is cool too

For readers at 3Daily Winners, we will be following the exploits of the Left Coast Connection bettors during the bowl season. Last year as I recall they were right around .500, going a little overboard on underdogs in my opinion. Anyways let’s see how they do this year. I also found a double system in college basketball playing against unbeaten teams. The Top Trend is in the NBA going against a tired team. Good Luck

What I thought today – I absolutely love the bowl season and I could care less if there are bad games and matchups, I’m there.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against favorites of 10 or more points after eight or more consecutive wins who have a winning percentage of 80 percent or higher playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). This system is 44-10 ATS and states to play against Purdue and New Mexico today.

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Houston Rockets are 4-22 ATS in home games when playing their 5th game in 7 days since 1996.

Free Football Picks -3) I did this last year and the results were mixed, but I’ll try it again and see what happens. The Left Coast Connection members as you read this have played Wyoming in first bowl game (14-5) and Central Florida with the points (12-3).

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

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OMG It's Bowl Time! Hurray!!!!!!

Do we really need 34 bowl games, not really. But do we need a bunch of worthless apps on our cell phones or what about all the waste on Direct TV, how many of those channels go unused? The bowl season is blast because you can watch whatever you want, whenever you want. And for the sports bettor its Christmas every day, with games packed into watchable segments. These 20 days of college football reminds me of the Travel Channel’s Man vs. Food and if you stomach all 34 games, man wins!

New Mexico Bowl
Wyoming vs. Fresno State
University Stadium – Albuquerque, NM
4:30E ESPN

The best aspect of playing the very first game of the college football bowl season is you don’t have a long layoff from the end of your last game and you can be home for the holidays. The first contest also ends up being the center of attention for the crazy people that watch every bowl game (guilty as charged) and those that feel compelled to not be very selective and wager on all 34 games because of how they are spread out.

By extremely subjective means, this bowl rates the 27th best to watch. It starts with Fresno State (8-4, 7-4-1 ATS) who has strong characteristics to take in this bowl game. They have a star player in junior running back Ryan Mathews, who led the nation in rushing at 151.3.
The Bulldogs ranked 19th in total offense at 435.9 yards per game and 15th in scoring at 34.3 points per game. Though some might question Fresno State’s resolve with repeat appearance in Albuquerque, coach Pat Hill will have none of that talk. “This game and this experience will be good for the development of our team and program as we build toward the future,” Hill told the Fresno Bee.

Since Hill has been at FSU, he’s always been an “us against them” coach and losing last year to another Mountain West team (40-35 to Colorado State) just adds incentive. The Bulldogs are notorious bad bets and after nipping Illinois at the wire 53-52 in Champaign, they are 2-11 ATS after allowing 50 points or more in last game. On the season they are 1-4 SU against fellow bowlers with three covers.

Wyoming (6-6, 8-3 ATS) isn’t a very good team, however they dressed up rather nicely for bettors with superior spread record. First year coach Dave Christensen made a lot of changes, but the most important was the turnover margin. Last season’s 4-8 team was -22, this year a complete alternation to +7. On the year Wyoming is 5-0 and 4-0 ATS when they scored 29 or more points and were 0-5 and 2-3 ATS when they totaled 10 or few points. (Shutout three times)

The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons and will have to match points to stay in the game with Fresno State who allows 27.2 PPG. Wyoming is 1-5 and 4-2 ATS against bowl teams this season.

These teams used to meet annually when they played in the WAC together until 1997. Fresno State is 10-8 SU and 6-6 ATS in bowls and is 0-5 ATS as a favorite. Wyoming is 5-6 and 3-3 ATS in bowl assignments and has not been favored in last six. The underdog has won and covered two of three New Mexico Bowls.

Bookmaker.com has Fresno State 10.5-point favorite with total of 55.

3DW Line – Fresno State by 12

St. Petersburg Bowl
Central Florida vs. Rutgers
Tropicana Field – St. Petersburg, FL
8:00E ESPN

Later on the first night of bowling, this bowl matchup comes in at 28th which might sound a little low; given both teams have pretty solid records. What this matchup lacks is sex appeal, kind of like looking for Elin Nordegren and winding up with Mindy Lawton. (Cheap Tiger shot, but fitting) Both Central Florida and Rutgers were 8-4 on the season and each is known for above average defenses and inconsistent offenses.

UCF (9-2 ATS) has to make the relatively short journey down I-4 from Orlando and coach George O’Leary relishes the opportunity. “We are thrilled to have this opportunity to play so close to our fans in St. Petersburg,” O’Leary said. “It will be great to have a large fan base behind us as we go for our ninth victory against a quality team from the Big East Conference. It is a great opportunity and one that I know our players wanted.”

The Knights strength is defense. Central Florida is fifth nationally in sacks, averaging 3.1 per game and registered 7.6 tackles for loss (11th overall). Of the 120 teams in the FBS, they were fourth in stopping the run at 82.5 yards per game against teams that averaged 146 YPG. UCF is 6-0 ATS after one or more consecutive SU wins and since last year.

Rutgers (5-7 ATS) probably ended up where they belonged, yet the season had a tinge of disappointment. The offense and defense dismantled weaker competition save Syracuse, but the Scarlet Knights were 0-3 SU and ATS against the best three teams from the Big East, being outscored 95-53. The offensive line was supposed to be the strong suit of Rutgers, however they have been irresolute, which comprised quarterback Tom Savage’s freshman campaign. With Central Florida’s ability to make plays up the field, the O-Line will have to step. The Scarlet Knights lost their last game to West Virginia and is 26-12 ATS off a loss against a conference rival.

The Knights from Florida are 2-4 and 4-2 ATS against bowl squads in 2009. The Knights from New Jersey are 2-3 SU and ATS vs. teams playing in the postseason. This is Central Florida’s third bowl contest and they have yet to post a victory (1-1 ATS). This is Rutgers fifth consecutive bowl and they are 3-2 SU and ATS all-time.

Bookmaker.com has Rutgers favored by 2.5 with total of 44.

3DW Line – Rutgers by 6

Saints look to go heavenly 14-0

The Saints look to stay perfect when they host the Cowboys in a special Saturday night NFL Network contest. New Orleans has just Dallas, Tampa, and Carolina standing in the way of a 16-0 season, and although being the NFC representative for the Super Bowl is foremost on the coaches and players minds, Sean Payton and his team at least outwardly is embracing the idea of seeking perfection.

New Orleans (13-0, 8-5 ATS) will look to do what they do best, score points. The Saints score NFL-best 35.8 points per game and they have done so against teams allowing 23 PPG. They are still within striking distance of setting the all-time record for points at 36.8, set by the New England Patriots in 2007. New Orleans is 24-4 ATS when they have scored 30 or more points under coach Payton.

The Saints are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS at home, scoring 36.7 PPG. After years of being one of the most melancholy home franchises in the NFL, New Orleans is 11-2 and 10-3 ATS at the Superdome the last two years.

For this contest and the remaining other two, coach Payton would probably like to get more balanced offensively, as they have thrown 90 times compared to 50 rush attempts in last two outings.

Drew Brees is the NFL's top-rated passer, and he leads the league with 32 touchdown passes. Brees can go to four different receivers, all with big play ability and can hand the ball off to three distinct running backs that each have a style and unique way to be productive. Off last week’s win at Atlanta, the Saints are 10-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last two seasons.

The sports bettor has to make a decision in the contest, spunk or funk? The Saints have come from behind several times in the second half to win games and Dallas is a December punching bag. After losing to San Diego at home, any talk of Dallas players saying December is just another month is like saying the Cowboys are unbeaten in June.

Dallas last month woes have gotten to them mentally. Though they still have two division games left on the docket, in a lot of ways, this is the swing game. Win at New Orleans and the Cowboys feel like Tiger Woods finding out Elin wants him back without a new pre-nup. Another loss sinks Dallas further into the December abyss and suddenly they have gone from looking like division champions to the Denver Broncos of last season. The Boys are 10-22 ATS in road games off a non-conference clash and as widely reported, 1-9 ATS in December games over the last three seasons.

It would seem logical for the Cowboys to lean on their ground attack, even after it combined for just 153 yards over the last two weeks, because the Saints have struggled against the run and rank near the bottom of the NFL in rushing touchdowns allowed (15). Doing so, however, still doesn’t guarantee that Drew Brees won’t find a way to drop at least four touchdowns on the board, because he can move the offense upfield faster than any quarterback in the league. Throw in Tony Romo’s history of poor play in December—he has a 16-to-19 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 15 final month games and Jerry Jones club at 10-22 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards a game looks about right.

Bookmaker.com has the Saints as 7.5-point favorites with total of 53.5. The New Orleans defense has been picked on and despite incredible offensive numbers; they are just 2-5 ATS in last seven games. The Saints are 8-1 OVER against conference opponents over the last two seasons. Dallas is going to have to generate a pass rush without DeMarcus Ware and they are 9-1 ATS after being burned for 250 or more yards thru the air. The Cowboys are 9-4 OVER as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

Keys to follow are the beginning of the game. Most of the Saints covers have been with fast starts and with raucous crowd, the Cowboys “want to” will be tested early. Wade Phillips will need big game from his offensive and defensive lines to control the game and Romo can’t revert to old ways of chucking the pigskin up for grabs against opportunistic defense.

With Dallas expected to blitz, the Saints immensely effective screen game applies. One aspect in the Cowboys recent losses, Miles Austin has been a non-factor, giving them no long threat.

At the end of this contest, the question will be – Who dat?

3DW Line – New Orleans by 10.5

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Making it a December to remember

Somebody in this country has been less affected by the recession, as Lexus is still trotting out those car commercials encouraging those that have the financial means to stay above the mayhem and fork over the cash for a luxury car. While that might be out of most working stiffs price range, we as NFL sports bettors can still at least add to the nest egg when it comes down to the last three weeks of the NFL season. (Used the picture of Detroit since they fit two systems listed in this article this week)

One of the realities every sports bettor must face at the end of another season is the dreaded “this team has to win”. In wagering talk, if ever there was a situation set up for a person to be – trapped - it is following that line of thinking.

There is no doubt teams have to win to make the playoffs, however many characteristics can prevent them from doing so. Among them is pressure, not playing well at the end of the season, injuries or a care-free opponent who has nothing to lose. All of these end up being reasons for failure instead of success.

Instead of looking at situations that appear to be favorable, go instead with ones that are. December is a cold, cruel month, (as many of you in the northern part of the United States recently felt), yet there are circumstances that will warm your heart and heat up your wagering account with a little work and determination.

In December, Play On a home underdog when both teams scored 10 or fewer points in previous contest.

Reason: With each team off a less than satisfactory offense performance, the home team has the added benefit of playing before the home fans. The oddsmakers are also telling us the visiting team is the better club, thus we have a motivated team at home off a lousy offensive performance. (13-5 ATS L23Y)

In December, Play Against a home favorite of three or less when both teams are coming off a loss.

Reason: By now all the teams fighting for the playoffs are established. Any team working to play in the postseason would at least warrant a standard NFL home field advantage of three points. If not, the oddsmaker is suggesting the home team is not worthy of supporting the conventional figure associated with home teams and is likely beatable. Seems like a good spot to take the points and consider the money line on the visitor. (41-13-1 ATS L18Y)

In December, Play On a home team off a SU home win if they have at least one extra day of rest.

Reason: At this time of year, every player that has played a full campaign is beat-up and has lots of aches and pains. Being able to play consecutive home games is a real value and any additional rest vs. opponent that is also weary and having to travel is a substantial edge. (22-10-1 ATS L19Y)

In December, Play Against any away favorite that scored 28 or more points in last outing.

Reason: Following the logic here, the public tends to follow the results of the previous game instead of looking at a body of work and more specifically the last three or four games teams have played. Unless a team is an offensive juggernaut, scoring four or more touchdowns is a good day at the office. Place this team in the role of road chalk off a solid scoring game, especially if that is six or more points better than their season average and we have the numbers in our favor. (55-30 ATS L11Y and 15-6 ATS the last three years)

In the final four weeks of the season, play on a non-conference home team that won outright as an away underdog.

Reason: All victories accumulated at the end of the season are earned, especially on the road. Winning in the visiting uniforms is a real boost for the home team coming into next contest. The road team circumstances could be varied. Winning or losing a non-conference game may not affect standings, especially if they have a division game or two left on the schedule. Another factor is unfamiliarity, as these teams are meeting every four years and if the visiting squad has division encounter on tap, can the bettor be assured of top effort, unlikely. (38-16 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a non-conference home favorite off a division win of 14 or more points, in the last month of the season.

Reason: Similar to last situation, this system is about putting in a satisfying performance and building momentum. The home team did a number on division foe and non-conference games tend to be looser because teams not knowing opponents’ tendencies as much, due to not playing them as frequently. Backing the home favorite in this spot has been a sound investment. (12-4, ATS L15Y)

Play Against a double digit road favorite facing a division rival in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: No matter the disparity in talent, beating a division companion by 10 or more points on the road is difficult any time of the year. This is further enhanced since the oddsmakers are telling us the road team is likely in the playoff hunt and the home team is not. For the home underdog, this might be the last game on the schedule to really get fired up about and they will have the support of those in attendance and can take pride in potentially damaging their rival’s postseason plans. Pittsburgh and New Orleans were both victims in Week 14. (16-5-1 ATS L11Y)

Play On a non-division home underdog if they allowed 175 or more yards rushing in previous game in the last month of the year.

Reason: All coaches try and stay away from placing more emphasis on one game more than another, since the players understand the state of affairs they are dealing with. The head coach and the defensive coordinator are going to be scathing in their comments in the film room about their defense that was pushed around, seemingly from lack of effort and execution in last outing. After listening all week to coaches complain about performing with a sense of urgency, the reportedly inferior home dog plays at or beyond capabilities versus foe not used to facing them. (29-13 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a division home underdog off a home loss in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: With teams playing just six division games a season, it’s not hard to be motivated for a rivalry conflict, particularly if the public perception is the home squad is the lesser team and needs points to cover a spread. This position is further enhanced off a disappointing home loss that left a bad taste in the team’s collective mouths. A win over division partner is great mouthwash late in the year. Cleveland and Atlanta both covered this past week. (16-5 ATS, L20Y)

Back for Thursday

After Monday’s poor showing, we came back Tuesday with 3-0 day and look to keep building on that occurrence. No great systems today (80 percent or higher), nonetheless one that is very solid in college hoops at 76 percent. The Top Trend looks in on an ACC team tonight. Good Luck

What I thought today – Really sad about Chris Henry. He was always in trouble for one thing or another from his days at West Virginia and it turns out to be just another tragic story.

I keep hearing sports bettors are pounding the Colts, however in the circles I’m traveling everyone is on Jacksonville. Interesting to note several sportsbooks do not want to let go of Indy at -3 and I’m seeing and hearing -125 or -130 on them, which tells me they don’t want Jacksonville at +3.5.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against a home team like Troy, who is an offensive team scoring 76 or more points a game, against a defensive team allowing 63-67 PPG, after allowing 90 points or more. Over the last five years this system is 38-12 ATS.

Free Basketball Trend-2) N.C. State is 12-3 ATS after playing a game as favorite over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Slick Rick like many so-called sharp bettors has Jacksonville tonight.

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

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Unbeaten Indy looks to tame Jaguars

Week 15 of the NFL season begins with a divisional rivalry and arguably some very bizarre circumstances. The Indianapolis Colts are one of two undefeated teams still walking around the NFL and they have been known to shut it down, at least partially, once their playoff determination has been made. Jacksonville is fighting to make playoffs in the AFC, despite being outscored by 52 points per game.

The Setup

The game is critical on several fronts, as Indy has clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but doesn’t want to lose momentum while trying to get healthier, while the Jaguars look to keep pace in the wildcard hunt. These teams have played a very competitive series of late, and in fact, with the Colts’ tight 14-12 win in the season opener, the visitor is on a five-game ATS winning streak. Jacksonville boasts a 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS mark versus AFC South foes, but is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home finales. Indy is a perfect 6-0 SU & ATS on the road in ’09, outscoring opponents 30.5-15.0 on average.

Why Watch

In wagering circles, this game created a reported firestorm of activity. Most wagering outlets opened this matchup with Indianapolis at -5 and word spread late Sunday into early Monday that the Colts were going to rest many of their star players and walking wounded on a short week. Though not officially confirmed or acknowledged, there were internet reports of huge amounts of money wagered on Jacksonville taking the line on the Jags either to pick or slightly favored.

Colts head coach Jim Caldwell came out Monday and stated that his team won’t willingly “try not to win” and “those that are healthy enough to play, will on Thursday night and the rest of the (regular) season”. This seemed to have calmed the situation and Indianapolis is listed as field goal favorite.

As of Tuesday, Indianapolis had 29 players listed on their injury report, including such notables as Joseph Addai, offensive tackles Ryan Diem and Tony Ugoh and defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Jacksonville is far from 100 percent healthy and the status of cornerback Rashean Mathis, defensive tackle John Henderson and receiver Mike Sims-Walker remains questionable.

Coaches and players can talk about getting ready for the playoffs, but once the game starts and the player is dressed, the juices are flowing and they want to compete. Some Colts players may not play the whole game, however their mission at least internally is to build enough of a lead, they can come out and let the reserves finish off the win.

Another reason to check this game out is a rare scene; all the seats will be full in Jacksonville Municipal Stadium with this contest an unusual sellout in northern Florida. That only helps the Jaguars be that much more ready for a must win game to keep postseason hopes alive.

Why Wager

Colts backers know how good they’ve been on the road, and though this isn’t a big rivalry for Indianapolis, they have always handled like a big brother-little brother situation and wanted to keep Jacksonville from feeling too good about themselves. Indy is 21-7 ATS after two consecutive covers as a favorite the last 17 years and is 13-3 ATS on the road after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games.

The truth is Jacksonville is ordinary at best, but is one of four teams that are 7-6, fighting for that last playoff slot. The Jaguars are 10-4 ATS the last 14 times they have been a home underdog, which in part helps soothe their recent 3-12 ATS mark at home. Coach Jack Del Rio’s defense is wafer thin with all the injuries and was pushed around last week by Miami (352 yards) and they are 4-12 ATS after surrendering 350 or more yards.

Streak players have to love the UNDER is 8-0 on Thursday nights this season.

The Line

Bookmaker.com has the Colts by 3 with total lowered to 42.

What Happens

Indianapolis will look for fast start similar to what they did in 2007, when they jumped the Jaguars early on the way to a super easy 29-7 win as three-point favorites. That means Peyton Manning attacking soft corners and going for the throat in the red zone. After early season struggles in the red zone, the Colts have scored 17 touchdowns in last 23 tries inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. On defense, bottle Maurice Jones-Drew and make David Garrard beat you thru air.

Evidently Garrard missed the meeting on ball security, as he continues to put the pigskin on the ground when pressured. Coach Del Rio has to coach up the offensive line to pound away at injury-plagued Indianapolis defense. This gives Jacksonville best chance to pull upset and opens up play-action passing game. Defensively, force Manning to hit checkdowns. This strategy makes the Colts be more patient and forces them to drive the length of the field instead of hitting killer big plays, which the Jags lack the offensive firepower to recover from.

The Outcome

3DW ratings picks Indianapolis by 11


Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

TNT Thursday NBA tilts

The Miami Heat hasn’t won back to back games twice in over five weeks and they will attempt to do so at home against their in-state and division rival Orlando. Miami has played nine games without consecutive victories and prior to that, their longest streak was three in a row from Nov. 4-10. Heat backers have seen enough losing bets they could hang all the “L’s” on a Christmas tree as ornaments and fill it up with 5-11 ATS mark in last 16 games.

Miami (12-11, 11-12 ATS) needs more scoring options besides Dwayne Wade and Michael Beasley is the person who has to elevate his game. Beasley was the No. 2 pick of the 2008 NBA draft yet finished seventh in the rookie of the year voting first season. Beasley has scored at least 20 points seven times this season and Miami is 4-3 when he does.

“I think it’s been long enough for me playing average,” Beasley said. “I’m just kind of mad at myself for not stepping out of the box. I’m kind of angry right now.”

The Heat tumbled Toronto 115-95 on Tuesday but is just 15-29 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons.

Orlando (19-6, 14-10-1 ATS) throttled the very same Raptors last evening 118-99, as Dwight Howard was close to a triple-double with 18 points, 14 rebounds and eight blocked shots.
“He’s a monster,” reserve forward Matt Barnes, told the NBA’s official Web site. “He gives the other players a chance to really get into their opponent, knowing if we get beat he has our back.”
The Magic will come into this contest 20-8 ATS on the road playing back-to-back days since 2007.

Bookmaker.com has Orlando as four-point road favorites, with a total of 201. The Magic lost a controversial 99-98 decision back on Nov.25 to Miami, where Orlando thought the game-winning basket was goaltending. The Magic are 23-9 ATS revenging a home loss.

According to the oddsmakers total, the pace of the game should suit the Heat, as they have 27-10 ATS home record when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points and they are 9-1 OVER after losing two of their last three games this season. Orlando has averaged 109.5 points per game in last four outings and is 17-5 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more four straight games.

After this contest, the scene shifts to the Northwest where Portland (15-11, 13-13 ATS) hosts Phoenix (17-8, 14-10-1 ATS). The Blazers have enough personnel injured to fill a ward at a hospital, with six players having missed 95-88 win over Sacramento. The most noticeable absence is Greg Oden, lost again for the season; however Portland has gotten used to playing without him. Even the coach missed time, as Nate McMillan is expected to be on the bench for a second straight time after missing four previous contests following surgery for a ruptured Achilles’ tendon. The Trailblazers are 32-15 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread over the last three seasons.

For Phoenix, this marks the end of a voodoo schedule the NBA handed them to start the year. The Suns have played a league-low nine home games and will have four straight and 10 of 12 at US Airways Center after tonight. Before then Phoenix will try to break December road slump, as they are 0-5 this month, at least having covered the last two games.

“We’ve been playing well at home (9-0, 5-3-1 ATS) and after this Portland game we’ll be home for a while and it would be nice to get a good road win against a good team,” forward Grant Hill said. “We’ve got a good opportunity (Thursday) night.”

The Suns top scoring offense (108.7 points per game) has flamed out in recent road assignments, not breaking the century mark in four consecutive tries.

Phoenix has a rather peculiar trend going tonight. In their last win over San Antonio, they only sunk seven of 13 free throws and they are 12-3 ATS after a game where they made 60 percent or worse from the charity stripe.

Portland is two-point pick according to oddsmakers with total of 201. At first glance, the total would seem to be a negative for Phoenix being this low, yet they are 27-18 ATS on the road when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. Those setting the numbers also have a beat on Suns defense, since they are 9-1 UNDER after allowing 100 points or more three straight games this season.The Blazers almost always are tough to beat at the Rose Garden and they can contain excellent deep shooting teams like the Suns, since they are 14-4 ATS in home games versus good 3-point shooting clubs making 36 percent or more of their attempts. Portland is 32-13 UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last three years.

Both of these conflicts are on TNT with the first game starting just after 8 Eastern.

Cowboys try to lasso Stanford on the road

Oklahoma State’s first true road game of the season was a complete disaster at in-state rival Tulsa, losing 86-65 and they will look to give a much better performance in Big12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series. In the Cowboys loss, they were held back when guard James Anderson was limited to 10 points. Despite having three players 6’10 or taller on the roster, coach Travis Ford doesn’t have enough players that can handle the post effectively.

In that contest, the Cowboys shot a season low 39.4 percent and will have to be more careful in shot selection. On the year, Oklahoma State (8-1, 2-1-1 ATS) is converting 46.5 percent from the field and they are 8-1 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of their shots.

Coach Johnny Dawkins second season at Stanford (5-3, 3-2-1 ATS) figures to be rockier than his first. Last year’s 20-win campaign was fueled by schedule that was softer than marshmallows. This year’s slate has been more foreboding, as the three losses explain.

This doesn’t suggest Dawkins team is talentless, as 6’7 senior Landry Fields is a keeper and Jeremy Green has added scoring punch from the backcourt. Dawkins have been willing to go small, to add quickness and being able to play his preferred style of 94-feet. This forces 6’8 sophomore transfer Andrew Zimmerman to get with the program or take a seat. The Cardinal is 12-4 ATS at Maple Pavilion the last two seasons.

Oklahoma States snuffed out Arkansas-Pine Bluff 81-66 in last contest and is 10-2-1 ATS off a SU victory. DiamondSportsbook.com has the Cowboys as 1.5-point underdogs, with a total of 146. This situation has not been the best fit for Okie State who is a mere 4-10-1 ATS as a road dog.

Since losing to highly ranked Kentucky 73-65 as 10-point underdogs, Stanford has won its last two games handily over Portland State (83-64) and Cal-Davis (85-69) and is 12-4 ATS in non-conference games over the last two years. The Cardinal was a 19.5-point chalk over the Cal-Davis and is 6-0 ATS at home after failing to cover last outing.

This non-conference clash is on FSN at 11 Eastern with Stanford 13-3 OVER as a home favorite of three points or less or pick and Oklahoma State 11-2 UNDER after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers.

NBA boss rethinking sports betting stance

David Stern is the boss of the NBA and like many sports czars, has taken a hard line on sporting wagering on team sports. He was particularly affronted by former referee Tim Donaghy revelations of betting on games he worked, which was in strict violation of the rules of conduct in the league.

At that point, print and television commentators coast to coast suggested the NBA was about to go the way of the Arena Football League, because its public trust had been comprised. And while many wondered what would happen to the NBA, something unexpected occurred that Stern’s minions and most other supposed “know it all’s” didn’t see coming, nothing.

All the presumed outrage, people thinking the NBA was going to become the WWE with predetermined winners (enough people believed that already), however once they started playing basketball, it was business as usual and television ratings have gone up, with attendance hurt by the recession, not by wagering allegations.

Stern recently sat down with Sports Illustrated’s Ian Thomsen and betting on the NBA was brought up during the interview.

During this conversation, it was clear Stern has changed his views on people betting on the NBA for a variety of reasons.

With many country’s worldwide accepting wagers on team or individual sports, Stern was asked about potential for scandals.

"We used [the Donaghy revelations] as an opportunity to get better, to coordinate with law enforcement and go through a variety of processes that I don't necessarily want to detail publicly, but you are on ready alert," he said. "And we're mindful of what can happen, because we're more-than-interested bystanders in the European football scandal. Two-hundred [soccer] games are being looked at by law enforcement across the continent. It's fascinating to see what's happening. And we're mindful of the cricket [2007 World Cup match-fixing] issues, of the football referees in Germany -- there's a lot going on."

He then spoke as someone with a greater understanding of the marketplace and where our country is in general. "The betting issues are actually going to become more intense as states in the U.S. and governments in the world decide that the answers to all of their monetary shortfalls are the tax that is gambling."

While Stern stopped short of saying he would approve of such activity openly at this time, when asked if it were in the best interests of the league to seek legalization of sports wagering in the NBA, Thomsen observed a shift in body language of someone who was going to make a point that could later be used against him, but believed his own words.

"It has been a matter of league policy to answer that question, 'No,' " he said."But I think that that league policy was formulated at a time when gambling was far less widespread -- even legally."

In looking at the landscape, where most states have lotteries, Indian casinos and Delaware presently above revenue expectations just allowing NFL parlays, Stern has absorbed all this information and reformulated his thought process. “Considering the fact that so many state governments -- probably between 40 and 50 -- don't consider it immoral, I don't think that anyone [else] should," Stern went on. "It may be a little immoral, because it really is a tax on the poor, the lotteries. But having said that, it's now a matter of national policy: Gambling is good.

"So we have morphed considerably in our corporate view where we say, Look, Las Vegas is not evil. Las Vegas is a vacation and destination resort, and they have sports gambling and, in fact, there's a federal statute that gives them a monopoly of types [on sports betting]. And we actually supported that statute back in '92."

While Stern has often been considered stubborn and bullish, the whole Donaghy experience has brought out a different side of Stern, one more enlightened and not as close-minded in his beliefs. He sees the popularity of the NFL and has widely varied figures on something related to his sport, basketball, with March Madness, which fills Vegas hotels annually for the opening weekend, and also seemingly everyone filling out a pool sheets and making a bet amongst friends. He understands the revenue potential.

“Gambling, however it may have moved closer to the line [of becoming acceptable], is still viewed on the threat side," he said. "Although we understand fully why, buried within that threat there may be a huge opportunity as well."Of course Stern will have opposition, but will also have those on side like the Maloof brothers who own the Sacramento Kings and the Palms Hotel and Casino just off the Vegas Strip.

Originally when the Palms was opened, they were allowed to have a sportsbook, but not able to take action on NBA games. The Maloof’s later stated their case after the city hosted the NBA All-Star game, wanting to take wagering action on all NBA games, except those involving the Kings and it was approved.

Stern’s latest comments were music the Sacramento owners’ ears.

“I’m thrilled to hear him say that,” Joe Maloof told Yahoo! Sports on Monday. “I think it does two things: First, it legitimizes gambling. It regulates it. That’s the most important thing. It’s clean. It’s honest. It’s fair.

“And then it creates a tremendous excitement for your product. People react differently when they have a bet on a game versus when they don’t. This is going to bring in great interest. If it’s regulated properly, this can be a tremendous revenue source for the league.”

Nationally, there is too much opposition from groups that want a sanitized world more reminiscent of the 1950’s and early 60’s. However, as individual states look to hang on to government programs and continue to see shortfalls, sports gambling will eventually be pursued more actively as another revenue source that will be taxed and monitored and be enjoyed more openly, as sports leagues like the NBA admit the world won’t end if people bet on sports.


Separate articles from Sports Illustrated.com and Yahoo.com provided the quotes for this piece.

Fingers crossed for terrific Tuesday

We got blitzed but good yesterday with 0-3 record and will to turn that right around today. We have three hoops plays to show, first Slick Rick’s Free Best Bet. The Best System is a rare first half play in the NBA and it makes a lot of sense, with low risk, points wise. In college basketball, a Top Trend of note at 16-2 ATS. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – Sometimes even the best information can be incorrect. I had a friend call me (connected with several Cards players) and tell me Arizona can’t wait to take the field against the Niners Monday. They want so badly to beat this team they can taste it. I didn’t make a huge wager, just my typical that matches a 2* play. As it turns out, the Cardinals were too amped to play (three off-sides defensive penalties on first drive) and since they felt so good about what they were about to do, they lost their confidence in a blizzard of mistakes and turnovers. I was OK with losing, since I trusted the info; the team just didn’t come through.

I wish I could accurately describe this, but a few people that know me understand, since I’ve explained. Once I saw Kurt Warner on the sidelines before the game Monday, I knew I was in trouble. He’s got this look, kind of a wide-eyed, pissed out blank look. For whatever reason, I noticed it several years ago since he’s been in Arizona and he always plays his worst games with that look.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like Phoenix vs. the first half line, scoring 103 or more points a game on the season against opponent after leading their last three games by 5 or more points at the half. This system is 30-6 ATS, 83.3 percent since 1996 and since the Suns are currently a two point favorite for the game, they just have to lead at halftime.

Free Basketball Trend-2) Louisiana Tech is 16-2 ATS playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 5-0 in the NBA the last two days and likes Charlotte to nail the Knicks. (I’m leaning towards New York, though no money on my part)

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

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Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror in the NFL

If you played Jacksonville or Kansas City this past Sunday, your nerve-endings were tingling, only to be slapped upside the head late in the game. The Jaguars came into their game against Miami well-positioned at 7-5 to take an AFC playoff berth despite being outscored on the season. Midway thru the second quarter it was apparent, the Dolphins had everything Jacksonville did not. A better running game, solid quarterback play, a stronger defense and more crowd support despite being on the road.

The one thing Miami didn’t have after building 14-0 lead, was ability to put the Jaguars away. Jacksonville, despite being thoroughly outplayed (Fins 22-10 edge in first downs and 137 more yards of offense), were in position to cover the 2 or 2.5-points after a first down on their own 49-yard line with under three minutes to play. The Jaguars had no success running the ball all day (3.8 yards per carry), especially up the middle. On a fourth down and three, to keep the drive alive on the Miami 44, the Jacksonville offensive coordinator calls a David Garrard quarterback draw. Those that had the Dolphins with the points had to be laughing hysterically about one of the most foolish offensive calls all season given the circumstances. Did we at 3Daily Winners miss something in not rolling out Garrard to the right, with a three passing options at 5, 10, and 15 yards? No, let’s run the quarterback draw for a four yard loss.

Thanks to Matt Cassel’s four interceptions (not all his fault) Kansas City could not overcome a bumbling Buffalo team that led 16-10, despite Ryan Fitzpatrick’s gargantuan 86 yards of passing. The Chiefs had one final outstanding opportunity to win the game outright as underdogs in the latter stages of fourth quarter and it underscored the value of talent. On third and ten at the Bills 21, Cassel threw a perfect pass to Chris Chambers at the five yard line, right in his belly, with nobody within three yards of him and he dropped it.

While there is no way to know if Kansas City would have scored a touchdown from there, it brought up another point. San Diego released Chambers earlier this season, as they felt he was no longer able to play for a team that still entertained a deep playoff run. The Chiefs picked Chambers up and he immediately became a big part of the coach Todd Haley’s pass offense.

While Chambers has proved he still has NFL ability, he no longer is coveted by championship-type teams. He’s an adequate fill-in for a team lacking in receivers. Though the top receivers in the game fail now and again, Chambers drop likely was the game and illustrated why the Chefs (intentional) are 3-10 and 5-8 ATS.

This whole Dallas dumping in December is a fact, no matter what coaches, players and a certain owner believes. Since 1996, they are 18-33 SU and they have lost 10 of last 15 in the final month of the year. After all these years, it’s not just bad luck or misfortune; it’s a pattern of behavior.

Do you want to know the problem with the Cowboys, they are front-runners. Much like a horse that races out to early lead, Dallas does the same thing year after year and sports bettors turn into lemmings following “America’s Team”. As opposed to a horse that just tires out, Dallas lacks the mental and intestinal fortitude to tough things out. The last two weeks were examples of the Cowboys not losing to better teams, rather to squads better prepared and with greater desire.

How do measure desire, this way. With San Diego leading 13-10 and 9:13 to go in the game, the Chargers had rushed for 41 net yards to that point. From that point forward, the Bolts ran off over seven minutes off the clock and added 32 rushing yards to their total. The San Diego offensive line, LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles wanted the game just a little more than the Cowboys did at that critical juncture and they took it. It’s not a coincidence the Chargers have won 16 consecutive games in December. Dallas doesn’t have the players that can raise their level of play at crunch time, period, making sportsbooks loads of cash with the public backing the ‘Boys.

Betting points – The Bengals streak of games with the underdog covering (12-0 ATS) this season, ended with curious non-effort in Minnesota. You have to wonder if something is wrong with Carson Palmer, as he threw just 25 times for 94 yards, despite his team trailing by 16 or more points most of the second half. Very much a play against team with four consecutive spread losses.

A quick way to rebuild a wagering account is follow the Oakland Raiders off a victory. With the Washington 34-13 wipeout, since their 2002 Super Bowl season, Da Raiders are 6-20 and 9-17 ATS after posting a W, including 0-4 SU and ATS in 2009.

There is still time to fix it, but New Orleans is losing focus late in the year on a balanced offense. All season coach Sean Payton has mixed the run and pass to near perfection, yet in the last two weeks, both spread defeats, the Saints have thrown 90 times compared to 50 runs. Coach Payton needs to lean more on the running game or a surprise early postseason ouster could be in New Orleans future even if they manage 16-0 regular season.

The AFC has clinched at least a tie in not losing to the NFC in inter-conference play for the 14th straight year. The AFC leads 32-23 and needs just one win in last nine games to take season record to 11-0-3 since 1996. For NFL bettors, it has made little difference with the record 27-27-1 ATS this year.

Only 11 days till Christmas

Could Bengals and Cowboys have played any worse? Their efforts (?) caused us a 1-2 day sorry to say. We have a couple of good systems going today; check what you like from today’s articles. We have a prefect trend in the NFL today in game write-up, thus thought we’d add a Top pucks Trend. Sal is having success and offers his best NBA tonight. Good Luck

What I thought today – As of Friday I really the Arizona Cardinals at -3, however the line moving in their direction and a system I discovered that favors the Niners, now I’m on the fence and may have to pass.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Systems -1) The Orlando system which is listed below is very good as is the Monday night one in football.

Free Hockey Trend-2) The Philadelphia Flyers are 2-11 when playing six or more games in 10 days over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Sal is on 10-3 run in the NBA and is playing Dallas this evening.

Paul Buck’s Monday Night Magic- Guaranteed

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

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Your Monday NBA Systems

One of the bigger NBA cards to start another work week finds a number of very good situations on the side or total of action. Take a gander at each one and find something to your liking and don’t worry about Denver not being in this group. The Nuggets and Thunder didn’t muster a mention for this article.

Indiana at Orlando (-12.5, 211)

The Magic return home from a mediocre road trip that produced 2-2 record and 1-2-1 ATS mark. It could have been viewed as a positive except they lost the last two games at Utah and Orlando. The Magic are big favorites over Indiana tonight and though the number appears cumbersome, they have a definite edge. - Home teams shooting 45.5-47.5 percent and are average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game), taking on an average defensive club like the Pacers (43.5-45.5%), who don’t rebound well (-3 to -5.5 reb/game), are 27-4 ATS the last five years.

Golden State at Philadelphia (-4, 209)

Here is some real top-notch handicapping information, if you have lost 13 straight games, you either have a really pathetic offense or you couldn’t cover a bed with a sheet. Philadelphia is 27th in field goal percentage defense; however they’ve met their match in Golden State, who is last in the same category. Look to play OVER in December on teams that have lost 10 or more contests. (30-10 since 1996)

Boston at Memphis (+7.5, 194.5)

The Celtics are a scintillating 11-1 on the road this season with seven covers, averaging 100.4 points per game overall. On Saturday, Boston crushed Chicago 106-80 and travel to Memphis, who has won four of five, yet ranks 25th in points allowed. Consider the total, as teams like Boston, scoring between 98-102 points a game, facing a crummy defensive team allowing 102 or more points a contest and conceded 85 points or less in last outing, are 29-6 OVER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points. For good measure these two clubs are 10-3 OVER in Memphis.

New Orleans at Dallas (-8, 194.5)

It has not been much fun in New Orleans, at least on the NBA side, as the Hornets try to get back to .500. In their last game, they suffered unsettling home loss to New York 113-96 as 6.5-point favorites. New Orleans let the Knicks to shoot over 55 percent while converting just 40 percent themselves. Having last played Friday, look to Play On teams like the Hornets off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days rest. (37-12 ATS since 2005)

Minnesota at Utah (-13, 200.5)

The Timberwolves are disgraceful 3-21, however are better than the Celtics or Lakers against the spread at 12-12 ATS. In Utah this evening, road underdogs of 10 or more points, winning 25 percent or less of their games on the season, in December, are 38-10 ATS the last five years.

Washington at L.A. Clippers (-2, 195.5)

The Wizards embark on a four-game West swing starting in Los Angeles. Washington has lost four in a row, including a hard to swallow 114-113 contest to Indiana two days ago. The Wizards have some potential tonight as road teams being outscored by three or more points, off a loss by six or less, with the line at +3 to -3, are solid 19-7 since 2005.

Arizona looks to fly to division title in San Fran

Arizona makes its second straight primetime appearance when it travels to San Francisco to wrap up the Week 14 slate on Monday night football. The Cardinals advanced to 8-4 after the win over the Vikings, and managed to boost their divisional lead over the 49ers and Seattle to three games with four to go coming into the weekend.

With the number of long winning streaks in the NFL this season, it is easy to lose sight of the fact Arizona (7-4-1 ATS) is a last second loss at Tennessee away from having a five-game winning streak. Kurt Warner came back from concussion last week and was razor sharp in 30-17 win over Minnesota, with his dynamic duo of receivers, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, taking turns sharing the spotlight. Boldin did a lot of damage early and late with seven receptions for 98 yards and two scores, while Fitzgerald was the focus more in the middle quarters, having eight pass catches for 143 yards and a touchdown. The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS vs. a division opponent off a SU win.

"It's a middle-of-the-season game and it doesn't have a lot of bearing in the big picture, but it gives you confidence moving forward to think that we can play with anybody," Warner said about Vikings win. "We can play with the big dogs. The key for us is to show up like that every week."

The Monday matchup for Arizona has significance on a couple of levels. They lost the season opener to San Francisco 20-16 at home as 4.5-point favorites and having the chance to win the NFC West in a revenge situation would certainly be sweet. A victory also gives the Cards franchise consecutive division titles, something that has not happened in 34 years, when they were in St. Louis, playing in the old NFC East. In the past, this has been a miserable spot for Arizona, sporting a 2-13 ATS record in division games off SU underdog win, facing a team below .500.

San Francisco (5-7, 7-3-2 ATS) has played well at home in 2009, with a 4-2 SU and ATS mark, and is now 6-2-1 ATS as hosts under coach Mike Singletary.

San Francisco’s inability to pull out close games—five of its losses are by a combined 19 points—and string more than two wins together all season will go down as the biggest reason its lockers will be empty come the first week of January. It suffered four straight defeats following a promising 3-1 start and has alternated wins and losses over the past four weeks. Last week’s 20-17 loss to Seattle was example of letting and opportunity slip away, as quarterback Alex Smith completed 27 of 45 throws for a career-best 310 yards with two touchdowns. The 49ers are 8-2 ATS off a division loss.

A lot of football remains, however, especially if you’re Smith. The first-overall pick of the 2005 draft has four more games to convince the front office and Mike Singletary’s coaching staff he’s their quarterback for next season and beyond. How well Smith plays against Arizona under the Monday night football spotlight could go a long way in determining his fate.

Elevated to starter midway through Week 7, Smith has played relatively well after missing all of last season with an injury and making just seven starts in 2007. He’s thrown at least two touchdown passes in five outings—something he didn’t do at all in 2007 and accomplished just three times while starting all 16 games in ’06. Part of his success can be traced to a supporting cast that includes rookie first-round wideout Michael Crabtree (32 catches, 406 yards, one touchdown in seven games) and former first-round tight end Vernon Davis (63, 801, 10).

However it has come at a price, as Singletary has abandoned the running game and RB Frank Gore looks completely uncomfortable taking handoffs out of the shotgun. The Niners at least are 5-1-1 ATS after losing outright.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Arizona as 3.5-point road favorites, with total of 45. The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in last seven road games and 6-2 ATS against teams with losing records. San Francisco has covered 15 of last 20 Monday night appearances; however is 0-4 against the number hosting Arizona. That is part of the reason why the visiting team is perfect 8-0 ATS in this series. The Redbirds are 13-4 UNDER as a road favorite of seven points or less.

Arizona covers if Kurt Warner has as much time to throw as he did last week. The Niners like to play tight coverage, but they can had, especially if they have to cover long distances over time. Keep Warner’s jersey clean and he should be able to fleece San Fran secondary. The Cardinals have the best red zone offense in the NFL when it comes to getting in the end zone, converting 66.6 percent of the time. Keep the pressure on the 49ers to match points. When the defensive line is revved up, they can create pressure. Though Smith sees the field better out of the shotgun, keep him in the pocket and make him throw meaningful strikes for 60 minutes.

San Francisco covers if they remember Gore is a member of the offense. No question Smith is more comfortable away from center and makes better reads. Nonetheless, the Niners have lost offensive identity and are throwing the ball around like Mike Martz is still offensive coordinator. The 49ers need balance in offense to play winning football. San Francisco was dismal 1of 13 in third downs in Seattle and are among the poorer teams in the league in that category. That won’t work against the Cardinals. Make Arizona safeties guard Vernon Davis down the field, since they are not great is deeper pass coverage running with receivers.


Monday Night System – Play Against any team that lost against the spread on the road in prior game versus a team that covered the number at home. (18-6 ATS L12Y)

Steve Makinen of Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Dialing up a 3-0 Sunday, hopefully

We tracked a 2-0 record yesterday officially and will try and build on that number this Sunday. We have an awesome NFL system in a non-conference game that is 86.3 percent since the turn of the century. Found a prefect trend in the NFL that is certainly odd and Nick will try and keep hot streak going with his Free top choice. Good Luck

What is learned yesterday – Shoppers appear to be out in good numbers, however the number of bags and what is in them is smaller. Last year retailers were panicky and started pounding sales, this year not as much. The cat and mouse game has begun, who gives in first?

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) Play Against a home team if they and their opponent were underdogs of nine or more points last week. This system which dates back to 2000 is 19-3 ATS and the team that fits is Oakland.

Free Football Trend-2) Came across this by accident, the underdog in the Cincinnati Bengals games is perfect 12-0 ATS this year.

Free Football Pick -3) Nick of the LCC is 27-10 in all plays over the eight days and is on Dallas as Top Play.

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

NFL Week 14 Key Games

With a quarter of a season to go, the NFL schedule-makers offer us thought provoking matchups that could send teams down different paths than it looked a few weeks ago. The Cincinnati offense has been languishing, despite adding up victories and figures to have to score at Minnesota. Denver has rebounded with a couple of wins, can they put the brakes on Colts perfect season? The Cowboys final month travails are potentially enhanced with a wicked December slate, now having to face one of the hottest teams in the league from San Diego. Miami and Jacksonville doesn’t generate much buzz outside of the sunshine state, yet both are still in AFC playoff hunt. New England, what is going on? Carolina is about to find out.

Cincinnati at Minnesota 1:00E CBS

Intra-conference division leaders collide in Minnesota, with each hoping to get closer to locking down their titles. The Vikings (7-4-1 ATS) are 10-2 after losing at Arizona. The other loss was of course, at the hands of Cincinnati’s rival, the Steelers. The Bengals (6-6 ATS) are 9-3, embarking on a road trip that features stops at the Metrodome and at San Diego. They will be the underdog in both, which may be a welcomed sign for Marvin Lewis, whose team is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in the dog role this season. They are also 3-0 vs. the NFC and have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall vs. the opposite conference. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS at home under Brad Childress in the final four weeks of the regular season. The host has been less than cordial in last three meetings between these teams, winning by 17.7 points per game.

Keys to the Game-

Cincinnati has established they can run the ball, ranking sixth at 133.9 yards per game. It is now time to fix the passing game, which has averaged 156.5 yards per game the last month. That might work against the three crummy teams they just played (though they failed to cover each contest), but it won’t cut it come playoff time. No Chris Henry in the slot weakens Bengals passing, however somebody has to take the challenge and Carson Palmer has to be more precise. The Bengals defense has incurred far more injuries than the offense and they keep playing at high level. They will have to on Vikings carpet, first containing Adrian Peterson and then pressuring Brett Favre similar to what Arizona did last week. If not, Cincy falls to 2-10 ATS on the road off a SU non-division victory.

After a slower than expected start, the Minnesota run defense has moved up to second in the NFL. (Behind the Bengals) The front four is going to have to make a few more plays with middle linebacker E.J. Henderson gone for the year. Rookie Jasper Brinkley has to make enough plays to cover up for the loss. The Vikings have to force Cincinnati to throw the ball. Minnesota is 0-7 ATS home off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite and they will add another if they give Peterson only 13 carries like they did last week. The Cardinals did a great job pestering Favre; still Peterson has to have more touches.

3DW Line – Minnesota by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Minnesota -6.5, 43.5

Miami at Jacksonville 1:00E CBS

Though both Miami and Jacksonville play in the AFC, they aren’t exactly rivals, as they meet more in the preseason than they do when it matters. In fact, this will be just the fifth all-time meeting, as each team looks to hang on in the AFC wildcard hunt. The Dolphins (6-6 ATS) are still breathing after upsetting New England, but at 6-6 would need to win out vs. four other fellow contenders to even have a shot. The Jaguars (5-7 ATS) are 7-5, and although their chances are better, their stats (-4.0 PPG margin) and upcoming schedule (Indy, at N.E.) suggest a postseason berth isn’t in their future either. Jacksonville moved to 2-4 ATS in 2009 at home (5-1 SU) after defeating Houston and is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games in a half full stadium. In this series, the Jaguars own a 3-1 SU and ATS edge, having met most recently in 2006 in Miami. Fins now 5-0 SU in December last two years.

Keys to the Game-

Miami offered Jacksonville a new look from last week’s game film, they did not run the Wildcat one time. Ricky Williams is more conventional back, and to coach Tony Sparano’s credit, he’s willing to adjust to need or opponent as Chad Henne checked the pigskin 52 times last week. Being versatile and less predictable is important, but greater point production is needed on the road, where the Dolphins are scoring 17.5 points a game. (28.8 PPG at home) On defense, attack QB David Garrard, who has put the ball on the ground 12 times (eight lost) and seems less confident with collapsing pocket. Miami 8-1 ATS in road games after one or more wins over the last three seasons and has to win fourth quarter like they did against New England, having given up a franchise record 134 points in the last final 15 minutes already.

Like every other opposing team, Miami will try to take away Jaguars run game. Jacksonville must be persistent, since they are 7-1 (5-3 ATS) when they rush 26 or more times and 0-4 SU and ATS when they don’t. Jacksonville has to roll Garrard out, since he is sitting duck in the pocket and create three layers in passing game to give him choices. The Jags are deplorable 1-11 ATS as a favorite since last season and they better be prepared for multiple Miami attack or they will be caught off guard like they were against San Francisco two weeks ago.

3DW Line – Miami by 4
Bookmaker.com Line – Jacksonville -2.5, 43.5

Denver at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS

Indianapolis (12-0, 8-4 ATS) remains unbeaten and is already in the uncomfortable position of wondering whether or not to rest starters in its remaining games. The rest of the AFC is hoping that the Colts don’t, as Denver (8-4 ATS) is in the thick of a wildcard logjam at 8-4. For head coach Jim Caldwell’s team, the Broncos represent the foe on their remaining schedule with the best record, thus potentially the greatest chance for getting knocked off. For the Broncos, this is the first of two tough remaining road games and they are 4-2 SU & ATS away in ’09. These teams have become somewhat regular combatants in recent years, and Indy owns a 6-2 SU and ATS record in the series the previous seven seasons. In the last encounters in Indianapolis, the Colts are 3-0 SU & ATS with an average victory margin a colossal 24.7 PPG.

Keys to the Game-

The Colts are going to bring pressure off the edges and Kyle Orton has to be wise to protect the pigskin and not put the ball up for grabs like last week when he was picked three times. Denver’s offensive tackles have to use outside leverage to push Indianapolis defensive ends outward and be ready for spin moves to the inside. The Broncos are 29-13 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points a game and have to take chances on offense and defense to stay close to San Diego in the AFC West. Denver has done fine work in not allowing the deep ball; however Peyton Manning can pick any defense apart strolling down the field. Defensive backs are going to have to take a few risks.

Indianapolis keeps winning and they are attracting sharp action again thanks to running the ball to balance the offense. Joseph Addai has been running with great authority and not coincidently, the Colts have covered last three contests. Look for Manning to be aggressive early and Indy to try and build quick, forcing Denver out of their game plan, making their ability to get after Orton more effective. The Colts are 20-7 ATS after two consecutive covers as a favorite.

3DWLine – Indianapolis by 14
DiamondSportsbook.com Line –Indianapolis -6.5, 44

Carolina at New England 1:00E FOX

The Patriots (6-6 ATS) have lost three of their last four games to slip to 7-5 on the season, just a game up on both Miami and New York for the AFC East title. New England’s remaining schedule is very manageable, starting with this contest vs. Carolina, so you have to still like their chances. Over the last 4+ seasons, the Pats are just 4-5 ATS hosting NFC foes. They are a perfect 6-0 SU at home this year, having covered four of those games while winning by 18.2 points per game. The Panthers are 5-7 and ATS after beating Tampa Bay, but relegated to the spoiler role the rest of the way, facing teams with a combined winning percentage of 77 percent over the final four weeks. Carolina is 0-3 SU & ATS vs. AFC East foes in this season after a 4-0 ATS non-conference mark a year ago.

Keys to the Game –

Carolina won last week but was outgained by 160 yards by the Bucs. It’s hard to fathom last Sunday’s ultra-conservative approach will work on the road, let alone in New England. The Patriots are ordinary against the pass and if backup Matt Moore is good enough to be on your roster as a professional quarterback, let him act like one and throw the ball down the field. The Panthers have to play the perfect game or be completely out of character. The former hasn’t happened much, so big daring, run Steve Smith out of the wildcat, throw on first down, send seven pass rushers at Tom Brady, anything to give yourself a more unique chance to win. The Cats are 10-1 ATS vs. opponent off consecutive losses, with the last being as a favorite.

Its evident things are out of whack in Billy’s world. Last quarter losses with leads, offense inefficient in the red zone and sending players home being late for meetings, at least where the media picks up on it. It’s been coming and New Orleans perfected it, rush three and double Randy Moss and Wes Welker, forcing Brady to find alternative. This is test for Moss to show how badly he wants to win, fighting to get open and not giving off visibly bad body language. Patriots have to stout in the middle to corral Panthers running game. Force Moore to beat you thru the air. With Carolina’s presumably limited offense, New England is 22-7 ATS when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards.

3DW Line – New England by 12.5
Bookmaker.com Line – New England -13, 43.5

San Diego at Dallas 4:15E CBS

Dallas continues its most difficult stretch of the season when it hosts the Super Chargers (Chris Berman reference). San Diego (6-6 ATS) has won seven straight games to reach 9-3 and has its sights set on a first round bye. Under Norv Turner, this has been the time of the year where the Chargers have played their best football, boasting an 8-2 ATS December mark. They are also 8-1 ATS in the second half of the season vs. good offensive teams gaining 5.65 or more yards per play in his tenure. Dallas (6-6 ATS) averages a lofty 6.7 YPP but finds itself in a tight NFC East race after losing to New York. Since dropping the new stadium opener, the Cowboys have won five straight at home, holding three teams to a TD or less while going 4-1 ATS. They are on a 3-7 ATS slide vs. the AFC, including 2-3 ATS at home.

Keys to the Game-

Dallas averages five yards per carry and San Diego is 21st versus the run. The Chargers are going to have to find a way to stop the terrific trio of Cowboys running backs. Lost in the winning streak is faulty tackling that has permitted foes to gain more yards than they should. Be dogmatic in wrapping up and keep a steady beat on Tony Romo to force miscues. Phillip Rivers offense has nabbed a 7-0 lead in six of the wins during this streak, which has allowed San Diego to set tempo. Do it to Dallas and 25-10 ATS road record vs. the NFC is within reach.

The Cowboys started December in New Jersey playing like they were waiting for something bad to happen and when it did; players in the foreground and background were seen shaking their heads. Championship teams don’t dwell, they move on to next play which is what the Cowboys have to do. San Diego is going to make great plays and force bad plays; it’s how Romo and the defense react to situations that will shape this NFC-AFC matchup. The Chargers have a full arsenal, controlling check-downs or predesigned passes to LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles forces Rivers to look elsewhere.

3DW Line – San Diego by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -3.5, 48.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.