Respect your elders

Common on, be honest, you had the Boston Celtics playing in the NBA Finals right along with the thought of changing the oil in your car. The truth is you didn’t really believe either was going to happen, but it sounds good right now, having learned what veteran pride and know how can do.

While much of corporate America looks to slice payroll, force more early retirements and generally speaking hire a cheaper labor force without necessarily having a better replacements, the Boston basketball franchise embraces the elderly.

No question it is a fine line to walk, as for months Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen were having a difficult time keeping up with their hefty reputations, let alone playing a higher caliber of basketball. Boston limped into the playoffs with 3-7 SU and ATS record to close the season and most basketball fans and sports bettors thought the only way the light goes on for the Celtics was the “Clapper”.

For all that had gone wrong with Boston (27-26, 20-31-2 ATS since Dec. 27 until the end of the regular season), once the playoffs began, youth was served.

Rajon Rondo strapped the (aging) veteran stars on his back went took off. Rondo destroyed Miami and as that series wore on, one by one the “Big Three” from the Celtics joined him as a cohesive unit. Much like a younger person showing an older adult how to use their cell phone and various apps, Rondo got Boston rolling and they are 10-3 SU and ATS in the postseason, including punching winners on the last five contests.

After the C’s unceremoniously chopped up Cleveland, Orlando was supposed to finish of this Celtics revival. The Magic were younger, quicker and reportedly hungrier, playing the best basketball of any team for 2 ½ months.

Then something weird happened, something that would make legendary Red Auerbach smile. Boston went to Central Florida and ripped Orlando apart. Word was the Rondo and Jameer Nelson matchup was supposed to be special; instead it’s been the like Buffalo Bills in a Super Bowl.

The way the other Magic guards and forwards (except for J.J. Redick and Vince Carter in non-pressure situations) have wilted against Boston, you would have thought the games were being played outdoors on Church Street.

For roughly 35 minutes of each of the first two games, the way Orlando was scrambling on defense, you would swear it was 6 on 5, with Boston always finding the open man. The Magic might be 26-14 ATS having won 15 or more of their last 20 games this season, but they look like a befuddled bunch.

Online sports betting outlets have Boston as 3.5-point favorite, with total of 190 and they are 25-14 ATS after a win by six points or less. The Celtics have controlled the tempo series after series and is 13-3 UNDER against teams with winning records. Orlando still has a heartbeat, but is 15-31 ATS off two or more consecutive home losses and 9-1 UNDER after a close loss by three points or less.

ESPN will have Game 3 at 8:30 Eastern, with the favorite 1-6 and 0-7 ATS since May 17 of last year.

Interleague Baseball is Back

Can you hear the whining already, “I hate interleague play” or “Why do they play these games, nobody cares except for a few series anyways”. Of course most people complaining are either baseball purists who want every starting pitcher to throw nine innings and games to last just over two hours “just like the old days” or online sport betting fanatics who for some reason believe the game is somehow completely different.

Here’s a newsflash, you still have to outscore the other team and you have 27 outs to do so. And if you want to win your wagers, bet the American League until further notice.

The first regular season interleague game was in Texas in June 12, 1997 when San Francisco played the Rangers. The Giants defeated Texas 4-3 (with Darren Oliver the Rangers starting pitcher and he’s back with them this season as reliever) and it’s been all downhill for the National League.

In the previous 13 seasons, the AL has won the season series nine times compared to four for the NL and those from the junior circuit have won the last six in a row, proving their dominance.

The National League actually narrowed the gap last season with 114-138 record, which was better than 2008 when they were 103-149. Where everyone started to take notice of the disparity between the two leagues was 2006. After the AL had won the two previous years 262-241, they hammered the NL 154-98.

National League apologists will blame the designated hitter, more favorable matchups for their counterparts or the weather, but the fact remains over the last six years they are 671-840, .440 win percentage. The answer why for this Grand Canyon-like difference, better organizations in the American League. The top teams have advanced scouting techniques, draft players that fit particular organizations and continually seek improvement.

To see the complete article with detailed charts - click here.

MLB Series Wagering- Boston at Philadelphia

It is still a week before Memorial Day holiday weekend but a matchup of the Red Sox and Phillies invokes thoughts of postseason baseball. These two squads have become synonymous when one thinks about baseball in October with their recent history of success and World Series titles. Because of proximity, Major League Baseball has made this an annual meeting and while it won’t carry the media weight of the New York subway series, the baseball itself is arguably better, given the talent of the clubs.

Philadelphia (25-15, +2.6 units) is again perched atop the NL East, leading the league in offense at 5.5 runs per game. If the Phillies have one weakness, it’s the American League. Forget losing to the Yankees in the Fall Classic, Philadelphia has issues in the regular season. The Phils are 10-23 the last two seasons when matched against the AL and have lost five consecutive series to Boston and are 4-14 taking on the Red Sox.

Boston (22-20, -4) is not in panic mode (at least not the front office), however they do have serious concerns. The Red Sox are in fourth place in the highly competitive AL East and are 8.5 games back of front-running Tampa Bay already. Boston has had their share of injuries to players like Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury, being out of the lineup.

Nevertheless, the BoSox are averaging 5.2 runs per game, which is third in the AL and sixth on the majors, however upon closer inspection they have been held to three runs or less 17 times. Compare that to Philadelphia who has 13 such occurrences and the Rays with 12. Using the other two division leaders as a benchmark, that is four or five potential swing games that could have been victories due to offensive ineffectiveness.

Boston has been one of the best interleague teams with a 38-20 record the last three seasons and sends John Lackey (4-2, 4.86 ERA) to the mound for Game 1. Lackey’s been hit hard, allowing 11 runs in 13 innings his last two starts vs. Detroit and Toronto. He’ll look to get back on track and Lackey is 19-5 UNDER in interleague action (team’s record) with average runs scored against him of 2.8 per contest.

Sportsbooks have Philadelphia as -141 money line favorites with total Ov9 and gives the ball to Cole Hamels (4-2, 4.29). Hamels has won his previous two starts and looks to make it three in a row for the first time in three years. The lefthander has been attempting to build his arsenal, adding a cutter. “I’m still learning when to throw it and how to throw it,” Hamels said. “It’s something that’s (based on) feel. It took me a year or two years to learn how to get the feel of the changeup.”

The Phillies will look to change ways for backers that enjoy sports betting, since they are 1-8 at home when the American League comes calling, yet are 12-1 at Citizens Bank Park after allowing four runs or less five straight games over the last three seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

This series will also feature hitters that are swinging the bat. The Sox J.D. Drew is batting .333 in his last 24 contests after slow start and has 17 RBI’s in previous 19 games. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia owns a .356 average in interleague play, which is the best all-time among players with at least 150 at-bats.

Placido Polanco has been a great fit for Philadelphia, especially at home, where he is batting .349 on the season. With him on base so frequently this sets up numerous RBI chances for Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. This is important since the Phillies are 20-6 when they score first and 5-9 when they don’t.

The middle game pitching matchup has Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-1, 7.89) facing Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 5.24). Dice-K has made four starts and in three of them has given up the one big inning which has been his demise. He needs to keep his level of concentration up like in the past, where he and his teammates are 8-2 as visitors against clubs with winning records.

Kendrick was on his game is last start, eight innings and two runs permitted against Pittsburgh. The right-hander has 2.57 ERA in his last three starts and his club is 5-1 when he’s on the mound at home.

Game 2 Edge: Philadelphia

The final encounter of the series looks like a complete mismatch. Veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (0-2, 5.31) will step into the starting rotation for Josh Beckett who is on the DL with lower back strain. Wakefield hasn't won a game since July 8, 2009, but don’t blame him entirely, as he left a contest on four separate occasions with the lead, only to see his Sox teammates cough it up. Oddly, Boston is 2-9 in day games this season.

Philly looks for the doctor to make everything better. Roy “Doc” Halladay (6-2, 1.64) hasn’t given up a home run in over 32 innings, but is coming off a complete game in which he made 132 pitches. The Phillies are 9-6 under natural light, however this might not be as easy as it looks since Halladay is 14-14 with a 4.28 ERA vs. Boston in his career.

This is the TBS Sunday afternoon contest at 1:35 Eastern.

Game 3 Edge: Philadelphia

My predictions for series haven’t been very stellar and it’s not a good idea to bet against a streak, yet the Phillies are due for bust out and would be expected to show personal pride. They have the advantage in two of the pitching matchups, with the opener a tossup and this Boston team has not shown to be as good as recent models. Here is a somewhat shaky vote for Philadelphia to end series drought over the Red Sox.

Series odds: Boston +170, Philadelphia -220

3Daily Winners Pick: Philadelphia

2010 Record – 2-4

Great System, Great Video

The Los Angeles Dodgers had their nine-game win streak snapped at an inopportune time, losing last night to division leading San Diego 10-5. The Padres were the first team in ten games to rip thru the Dodgers pitching, who had allowed 18 total runs during their scorching streak.

Los Angeles will attempt to begin another charge at first place and split the quick two game series against San Diego.

The Dodgers defense has been a source of concern all year, ranking 11th in the National League. However they have tightened up all aspects of their game and have gone six contests without an error.

Manager Joe Torre will hand the horse-hide over to Clayton Kershaw (3-2, 3.55 ERA, 1.358 WHIP), which should put smile on everyone face (along with below video) preferring the home team for sports betting purposes. Kershaw has allowed one run in his last two starts, permitting five hits over 15 innings, striking out 16 opposing batters. Equally as important for him the left-hander is giving up just five walks.

L.A. is 29-8 in home games after a loss and will face Kevin Correia (4-3, 4.35, 1.220) who Kershaw and the Dodgers downed 4-1 last Saturday in San Diego. Correia allowed the four runs over 5 1/3 innings in the defeat while attempting to overcome the emotional scars of losing his younger brother, Trevor, who died after falling from a 60-foot cliff while hiking on Santa Cruz Island.

Sportsbooks have Los Angeles as -158 money line favorites, despite having Andre Either out the lineup and possibly Manny Ramirez, who injured his left foot before yesterday’s contest and was scratched from the starting nine and later was used as pinch-hitter. Nevertheless, the situation is quite favorable for the home team in this I-5 conflict.

Play On favorites with a money line of -125 to -175, after three straight games where they committed no errors, starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs in his last two outings.

This baseball system is 62-16, 79.5 percent since Daniel Powter’s No. 1 Billboard hit “Bad Day” (2006) and the margin of victory has been decisive, with the favored club winning by 2.4 runs per contest. Everything points to a Dodgers triumph with L.A. 33-13 in May games since last year.

3DW Baseball Betting Beat

The Houston Astros are not the worst team in baseball or the poorest wager, however do not worry, they have time to still get there. Houston is 14-26, -7.6 units, both good (and bad enough) to rank in the bottom six of Major League baseball.

The Astros could likely be the best play against team at the moment, but somehow they swept the Cardinals near The Arch in St. Louis starting back on May 11 and picked up +6.35 units.

Why is Houston so bad? This is a franchise full of neglect with owner Drayton McLane calling the shots. McLane would not have his millions if he ran his other businesses in the same manner as his baseball franchise.

McLane has always liked to overpay for his own stars, with B to C level talent he thought would help fill seats and maybe help his team win. Free agents like Carlos Lee, Jeff Kent, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens (he of the part-time duty in his days in southeast Texas) all received big contracts, but never produced the type of numbers over the expanse of their deals.

Lance Berkman might be 34, but his deterioration has been in full view for a couple of years for those betting baseball.

The numbers tell the story about the ‘Stros. In the National League they are last in runs scored (3.0), batting average (.231), doubles (53), home runs (21), total bases (436) and on-base percentage (.277).

To understand their ineptitude, compare those numbers to league averages, please understand not the best, just what the average NL team profile looks like. (Thru May 19)

Runs scored (4.5)
Batting average (.257)
Doubles (77)
Home runs (37)
Total bases (552)
On-base percentage (.330)

These are mind-boggling numbers for sports betting aficionados. At the aforementioned date with these number compiled, Houston did not have above average player at ONE field position (excluding pitcher) when it came to adding up these shown figures in the senior circuit, not one.

The Astros play the old-school way like a Kirby Puckett, who went to the dish hacking. One problem they don’t have a player of his talent on the roster and rank 15th in pitches taken and dead last in walks with 77. (The Giants are 15th at 121 base on balls by comparison, a 36.4 percent differential)

About the only thing Houston batters don’t do a lot of is strikeout (lowest in the NL), but they have so little patience at the plate, they don’t give opposing pitchers a chance to send them back to the bench and instead flail away at whatever is pitched.

With the poorest farm system in the big leagues according to Baseball America, one top notch pitcher in Roy Oswalt and two average to slightly above hurlers in Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers, prospects are not good this season will improve. Take away a 9-6 record at present against NL Central partners and the 2010 Astros are 5-20 (-15.5) against the record of the league.

The best way to sum up Houston is compare them to baseball’s best team, Tampa Bay, in one category. The Rays are 16-3 in games determined by four or more runs and the Astros are 3-13. You would think Rachel Phelps was running the team. (The Cleveland Indians owner in the movie - Major League)

I wouldn’t read too much into the Pittsburgh Pirates hovering just below .500 thus far in 2010. The Bucs have been good underdog wager at 17-21, +7.8 units; however their run differential is -100. That number is higher than last place teams Kansas City and Baltimore combined (-96) and even if Pittsburgh was like a bank and could write off it’s bad debt, they would still be the worst in baseball tossing away 20-0 meltdown to Milwaukee.

I just love the so-called experts who have fallen in love with saying starting pitching doesn’t mean what it used to. They site pitch counts, the lack of complete games and greater dependence on bullpens.

While those points are mildly valid, their reference point is like that of politician selectively choosing quasi-numbers and facts to make a point.

The Los Angeles Dodgers started the year with one of the best offenses in the National League, yet on the morning of May 9 were 13-17 and being written off for their lack of pitching.

Joe Torre’s starting pitchers finally found a groove and in harmony with those in the bullpen, put together a streak in which they conceded 2.0 runs per game and the Dodgers won nine in a row, while a bit over average in runs scored at 5.5 compared to 5.2 for the season.

What changed was the starters began throwing strikes, which led to more innings of success with lower pitch counts. This helped setup the pen with pitchers in their normal roles of coming in the game in the seventh, eighth or ninth innings, which is their comfort zone and once success was achieved, the confidence swelled among the entire staff.

The days of complete games and high pitch counts are gone; nevertheless if the starting pitcher can take a tie game or lead into the final three innings, most baseball bettors are positioned to earn a victory.

Wednesday's material of note

Goodness, another 3-0 day makes our record 51-23, 68.9 percent for last 74 choices. The Top Trend is in the heart of Texas and the LCC consensus plays have been saucier than Megan Fox’s language in recent interview. We have systems article about baseball, check out the Phillies one at 82.5 percent. Good Luck

What I noticed today - Online sports betting oddsmakers were impressed with how easily the Lakers scored against Phoenix in totaling 128 points on 58 percent shooting. Los Angeles wasn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut with the Suns shooting 49.8 percent; however don’t you wonder just a little bit about the total moving SIX points from Game 1 to Game 2 to 216?

How bad are things in Brew Town? Milwaukee has lost eight straight and despite their history of dominating Pittsburgh, they have fallen from -170 opening money line road favorite and to -147 or less at most sportsbooks.

The Atlanta Braves began the day as -150 home favorites, but have sunk to -130 or lower against Cincinnati. The first place Reds are 12-4 playing against a team with a losing record this season and finding all kinds of different ways to win. Braves starter Kenshin Kawakami is 0-6 with 5.79 and he and Atlanta are 4-15 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game.

Scuffling Seattle was supposed to be an AL West contender and are if you hold the newspaper upside down. The Mariners are -120 choice down from -140 and just can’t get out of their own way with 6-18 record after a loss this season.

The Giants and Diamondbacks division matchup started at nine and at last look is up to Un10. Plenty of reasons for sports bettors to believe this will come true since San Fran starter Todd Wellemeyer has 9.49 road ERA and though Ian Kennedy has been more effective (3.58 ERA) for Arizona, unless he’s able to pitch complete game, the Snakes bullpen will enter the contest with outrageous 7.97 earned run average this season.

MLB Betting Nuggets

Play on teams like Philadelphia against a -1.5 run line, who are good NL offensive team scoring 5.0 or more runs a game against a quality starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70), after allowing two runs or less two straight games. (40-13 L5Y)

Toronto is 9-1 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season, winning by 1.8 runs per game.

Tom Gorzelanny of the Cubs is 12-0 OVER as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last three seasons, with average total score of 10.9 RPG.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) See system article below.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Texas Rangers are 13-2 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus is 8-0 behind the Phillies tonight and FYI -14-3 on the Suns with the points.

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Better bring shades for Suns and Lakers in Game 2

One of the wonderful aspects of visiting Tinsel Town is you never know when the stars will be out. You could be standing in line at legendary Pink’s Hot Dogs or roast beef haven Phillipes and Sandra Bullock or Tom Hanks might be waiting in line with you. The same can also be true on the hardwood, where every now and again the Los Angeles Lakers and their stars give a memorable performance at the Staples Center.

There is always a bit of the unknown when a NBA team has a long layoff, you can never be sure what it means good or bad. The Orlando Magic appeared to be effected negatively with their extra time off against Boston, but the Lakers played refreshed and looked better than a Santa Monica sunset.

Kobe Bryant was in “the zone” scoring 40 points on 23 shot attempts. Bryant appeared more than any other L.A. player to have benefitted from the down time. "My legs benefited a lot," Bryant said. "I was able to take some time off and just get stronger, get my legs stronger, body stronger."

However, Bryant wasn’t the only Lakers player that played rejuvenated and Phil Jackson’s squad proved just how challenging they are to defeat when they all committed to common goal.

Lamar Odom had 19 points and 19 boards (seven on offense) and was dialed in throughout.
Paul Gasol was 10 for 13 shooting, even converting on a couple of almost impossible buckets for a man his size. Derek Fisher was defensively possessed in staying with Steve Nash and though he has 13 assists, Fisher and his teammates limited the former MVP to 13 points on only 10 shots.

Two keys for Phoenix coming into the series were rebounding and bench strength. The Suns were outrebounded by eight and their reserves were out-pointed 44-35 in losing by 21.

"They played great, one of the best games I've seen them play in the playoffs this season," Suns coach Alvin Gentry said. "Kobe kind of controlled the whole game. I thought we could have withstood the game that he had ... but when he's making his jumper like that, there's not a whole lot you can do about it."

Phoenix is going to have to play much better defense as L.A. was fearless doing what they wanted offensively. (Shannon Brown’s dunk attempt for example) The Suns are 31-13 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season and if Kobe stays percolating, they must negate the rest of his teammates since you aren’t going to be on the winning side permitting 58 percent shooting.

“They're probably going to continue to be taller than us as the series goes on, so we've got to ... make everything as tough as possible," Steve Nash wryly stated. "We played hard, but we didn't make enough shots, and we had a few too many breakdowns."

Subtract Grant Hill and the other four Phoenix starters shot 59.5 percent, the issue was they generated only 42 attempts. If the Suns expect to tie series and move spread record to 20-10 after one or more losses, the starters have to get more shots at the rim and Channing Frye and Jared Dudley can’t put up combined 2 for 13 numbers.

Phoenix is a seven-point underdogs, with total leaping to 216. For those that use online sports betting it’s impossible to ignore the Lakers are 11-1 ATS after three or more consecutive Over’s and 17-6 against the spread in home games when playing only their second game in week. Coach Jackson’s club is 13-4 UNDER after a wipeout win by 20 points or more.

TNT will again have the coverage of Game 2 from LaLa-Land at 9:00 Eastern with the desert dogs 14-4 UNDER after they allowed a shooting percentage of 55 percent or higher.

Top Wednesday Baseball Systems

The second part of swing week continues with all 30 MLB teams moving on to play new opponents for the next two days. Upon doing research we find different teams in advantageous positions this Wednesday on the money line and online sports betting enthusiasts also will have an outstanding totals play to consider.

Chic. Cubs at Philadelphia 7:05E

The Phillies might not have had Chase Utley in the lineup the last few days, but they still lead the National League in runs scored at 5.6 per game and maintain a .278 team batting average. Philadelphia will face the Cubs this evening and their hard luck starter Tom Gorzelanny (1-4, 3.60 ERA), who had permitted three or less runs in his first six starts of 2010, before having his worst outing the last time out against his old team Pittsburgh and was cuffed around for five runs, nine hits in five innings of work.

The Phillies are -145 money line home favorites and teams that bat last with the ML between -100 to -150, with a team batting average of .275 or higher, taking on NL starting pitcher with ERA of 3.70 or less in the first half of the season are 33-7 since 2006.

Cincinnati at Atlanta 7:10 E

The Reds continue to be in first place in the NL Central with yesterday’s dramatic 5-4 come from behind win over Milwaukee in which they tallied three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to pull it out.

“Down 4-2 in the last inning against arguably the greatest closer of all-time, and to come back to win?” Joey Votto said after driving in the game winner off of Trevor Hoffman. “I think that says a lot. I think the guys always feel like we have a good shot.”

Cincinnati has won four straight and eight of nine, even though they have bullpen ERA of 4.82. Aaron Harang (2-5, 6.02) and his pitching foe Kenshin Kawakami (0-6, 5.79) have struggled mightily in 2010. Harang has at least notched a couple of wins but Kawakami has not registered a victory since August 31, 2009. He’s allowed 43 hits in 37.1 innings and been tagged for six home runs.

Nonetheless, the Reds are +125 dogs and road teams with the between money line +125 to -125, with a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher who is winless after five or more starts are 10-39.

L.A. Angels at Chic. White Sox 8:10E

The White Sox have not won back to back games since sweeping home series against Seattle back on April 23-25, will have eighth attempt to change their luck. Chicago will have their best and most consistent hurler John Danks (3-2, 2.25, 1.125 WHIP) on the mound.

They will face Joe Saunders (2-5, 4.96, 1.566) who was having a terrible year before putting it all together in complete game four-hit shutout over Oakland in his previous start. The Pale Hose are a -150 money line wager and home teams with an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season facing his mound counterpart whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600, are 47-14 the last 13 seasons, including 19-2 the last five years.

Toronto at Seattle 10:10E

The Blue Jays concluded a 4-1 homestand in impressive fashion trouncing the Twins 11-2 yesterday, behind four home runs taking their Major League total to 65. The long ball is what is keeping the Blue Jays on the positive side of .500, since they have a mediocre team batting average of .244.

Toronto makes a West Coast swing beginning in Seattle at spacious Safeco Field. Online sports betting patrons should look at the total of Un7.5, as AL road clubs with BA of .255 or worse on the season after a win by six runs or more are 44-15 UNDER the last five years.

All systems from the Foxsheets.

Tuesday's Top Plays

The wins just keep coming at 3Daily Winners as we were 3-0 yesterday taking us to 48-23, 67.6 percent on this hot streak. The Free Play and the Top Trend are the same team and they have impressive numbers. Our Best System is over 80 percent the last 13 years and really rocking at 88 percent the last three. Good Luck

What I thought today – If the Lakers played likes they did in Game 1 against Phoenix the rest of the playoffs, they could save a lot of time and money and just give them the trophy now. It is a thing of beauty to watch an elite player in any sport “locked in” like Kobe Bryant was last night.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites like the Dodgers with a money line of -175 to -250, averaging 0.9 or less home runs a game on the season, after a win by four runs or more. In the last three years this little system is 22-3.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Chicago Cubs are 19-0 in home games vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection was 8-0 behind Tampa Bay as ML or RL play but I won’t count that because the game is over. Their next best choice was the Cubs at 9-1.

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Sharks have to take a bite out of Chicago

San Jose did pretty much what they wanted but one thing in their Western Conference finals opener against Chicago, win the game. The Sharks suffered a 2-1 loss despite outshooting the Blackhawks 45-40, committed no penalties compared to Chicago’s five and controlled the contest for long expanses of time.

Still it wasn’t enough with San Jose was 0-5 on the power play as Hawks goalie Antti Niemi was the difference-maker. “He’s been good for us all year,” Chicago forward Kris Versteeg said. “Everyone seemed to be doubting him except us. We’re confident in him. We have to give him a lot more help than we did tonight.”

The Blackhawks will take a split but have higher ambitions now and are 22-8 against offensive teams scoring three or more goals a game this season.

“The good news is there’s a lot of things we can improve on and that we can do better,” Jonathan Toews said. “When we looked at Game 1 watching the highlights on TV, it looks like they absolutely outplayed us. It didn’t feel that way on the ice. But we know our goaltending was huge keeping us in that game.”

San Jose isn’t devastated by the loss and they know that have clean up miscues and get back to playing how they are capable.

“For the most part we played pretty well,” Sharks defenseman Dan Boyle said. “We made a few defensive mistakes. But again, to get 45 shots against a team like that, keep them at two goals. It could have gone either way.” The Sharks are 35-16 when playing against a team with a winning record.

San Jose is a -140 money line pick on home ice for Game 2 with total Ov5.5. The Sharks are 25-7 after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games and are 5-2 OVER in last seven contests. Chicago keeps peppering the net and is 7-1 on the road after five straight games with 30 or more shots on goal. The Hawks are 14-6 OVER having won four of their last five outings over the last two seasons.

This West Finals has a 10:00 Eastern start on VERSUS and TSN and the underdog has won four in a row in these meetings.

Orlando better come ready

The Boston Celtics exposed the Orlando Magic like Toto pulling back the curtain on the Wizard of Oz. Whether Orlando was not emotionally ready to play from the long layoff or listless after cruising past two dramatically weaker opponents, the facts are for three quarters the Magic looked liked they belonged in the Eastern Finals as much as the New Jersey Nets.

The crisp passing normally associated with Stan Van Gundy’s team amounted to a grand total of 10 assists in the series opener. The Magic players dumped the ball down to Dwight Howard and basically stood like statues in creating no movement on the perimeter, which forced Howard to rely on his limited offense game with nowhere to pass the ball.

While the Celtics deserve credit for keeping the Magic under 40 percent shooting for the first 36 minutes, their task was made much simpler with Rashard Lewis, Matt Barnes and Jameer Nelson for the most part taking off-balance shots and being sloppy ball-handlers.

“I don't think we were prepared for the level they were ready to play," said Vince Carter, one of the few players in white with pulse throughout the contest. "They were ready to go from the jump, and we weren't on their level from the beginning." Orlando is 41-22 ATS revenging a same season loss.

It’s not a good thing when the best and smartest player on the floor for your team is J.J. Redick. While the former Duke guard has made himself a useful NBA player off the bench, he can’t be one of two players (Carter the other) that understands what his team needs.

The Magic too readily let Boston set up its half court defense. When Nelson had the ball a good portion the game, he did too much yo-yo dribbling and the offense was stagnant.

With Redick, he would get the ball into Howard’s hands early in the shot clock and give the big man options, he would than move to give Dwight as reasonable outlet and would either dribble drive to the basket for a good shot or find another open shooter. The Magic are 23-11 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this year.

"That was a wake-up call we really needed, in my opinion," said Carter. "They're relentless, they're aggressive, they do a great job of contesting, especially in the paint, and it took us a while to figure it out, but when we did we played a lot better."

The question about Boston has been are they too old and are they wise because of their experience? The answer presently is the latter. Ray Allen shot only 34 percent against the Magic in last year’s playoffs and they tried to employ the same defensive strategy on him again, pressuring him on the perimeter to take contested shots. Allen foiled those tactics, by beating Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus and later Redick off the dribble for layups or short jumps shots in totaling his game high 25 points.

The green-clad C’s are up to 38-23 ATS as road underdogs the past three years and Paul Pierce is starting to show he might still have something left in his legs with superior all-around game line that looked this way - 22 points, nine rebounds and five assists.

“It was a defensive game, and we like those. That was fine with us," said Boston coach Doc Rivers.

Orlando opens Game 2 as seven-point favorites to even the series, with total of 189. The Magic are 31-12 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite and 17-6 UNDER after one or more losses. Boston has won and covered four in a row and is 29-16 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive contests. The Celtics are 11-2 UNDER after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last outing.

The second game in the series has an 8:30 Eastern start on ESPN.

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We stay smokin' heading into Monday

Quality winners spilling out of 3Daily Winners with three more W’s on Sunday taking record to 45-23 or pretty damn good. The Dodgers have a new address at wwwwwww.Winners and are in perfect Top Trend tonight. Boston and Yankees is always fun, one team is in a 55-7 winning system tonight. The LCC has another Free Play up for tonight. Good Luck

What I thought today – With no disrespect to the former Dukie, but when J.J. Redick is your best player on the floor in the NBA conference finals, your chances of losing go up significantly. Redick was far and away the best and most intelligent Orlando player in the fourth quarter in Game 1, which is really an indictment against the other Magic players.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like the Red Sox who are average hitting team (BA in .265 to .279 range), against solid AL starting pitcher with ERA under 4.20, with an on-base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games. If a team was really potent offensively, they would never be such a pooch and playing against them wins 88.7 percent of the time. (55-7)

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Dodgers are 11-0 in home games off four straight wins against division rivals over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection back Oakland A's 8-0 over Seattle.

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NBA Western Conference Finals Preview

(1) L.A. Lakers vs. (3) Phoenix

Talking to a number of various wise guy bettors living in Las Vegas, one conclusion was evident before the playoffs started, yes the Los Angeles Lakers looked vulnerable but were still the safest bet to win another title and the Phoenix Suns were the best long shot among the top four seeds from either conference to become the upset champions of the NBA.

Both those assessments have proven correct, however one will be kicked to the curb with the West Finals at hand. Here is a look at what each team has to do to reach the The Finals.

One aspect that is often forgotten in the NBA playoffs is how very good teams can pick up momentum. The Lakers closed the regular season 4-7 SU and ATS and were like Whitney Houston’s recent concert tour, very unimpressive. More than one sports fan believed Oklahoma City had a fair shot to upset Los Angeles in the first round and after they suffered 21-point loss to the Thunder to tie the series at two, that belief no longer seemed so far-fetched.

However, since then, L.A. has gotten serious about basketball again and has won six straight, covering five times and now another championship ring is in sight.

I apologize in advance, but there is not getting around it (literally), the size of the Lakers’ changes how teams can attack them. With Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom, it just doesn’t leave much room in the middle, which helps takes away the one inside player the Suns have in Amare Stoudemire.

L.A. guards and wing players can be super aggressive defensively, knowing what they have behind them. Ron Artest is not the defender he was a few years ago, but what he’s lost in quickness he makes up for in smarts and he will try to attach himself at the hip of Jason Richardson or Jared Dudley when he enters the game.

Phoenix has picked up a reputation as being good defensive team, while they are not as lame as when Mike D’Antoni was coach; they are far from good, mostly just average. With the talk of Grant Hill being a defensive demon, that’s all Kobe Bryant needs for a personal challenge.

Remember last year when Denver had all those high effort guys coming off the bench and they actually gave Phil Jackson’s team trouble at first, yet after Game 3 had little impact, that’s what the Lakers do as the series wears on, systematically they take away your strengths and even Derek Fisher becomes more useful knocking down shots. There is a reason why the Lake Show is 5-1 and 4-2 ATS against the Suns at Staples the past three years, they are bigger and better and hard to beat four times.

Since Steve Nash has arrived in the desert with his injury-plagued career in the balance, all he has done is transform Phoenix into the most entertaining team in the NBA and a outfit that has been among the better groups out West. Be that as it may, the window of opportunity is closing and the sense is the entire club and organization knows it.

That creates the first chance for the Suns, desperation, hardly something the Lakers ever feel and when they do, usually nothing good comes from it. (Game 6 Lakers at Boston two years ago comes to mind) Phoenix has to be able to leave all on the floor each night, no Game 1 or Game 4’s against Portland “we just weren’t focused” nights. You only get once chance to beat a champion and if you let it slip, look in the mirror.

Coach Alvin Gentry is credited for making Phoenix a more complete squad than past versions, with greater attention to detail on both ends of the floor. Steve Nash should be able to run circles around Derek Fisher, but his key is drawing the defense to him to make the assist and frustrate the Lakers big men.

Coach Jackson will try to prevent dibble penetration by Nash and make him more a shooter than facilitator, Nash has to defeat this defense by using the screen and role continually with Stoudemire. If successful, this forces other defenders to get involved and the NBA’s best outside shooting team will find itself with many more open looks.

Phoenix can’t let the Lakers play volleyball on the offensive glass; they have to at least be within five boards at all times once the second half starts.

Gentry’s bench has been a difference maker, which is why this desert squad is 22-4 and 19-6-1 ATS since Mar. 14. With how ineffective the L.A. bench is, they need to outscore them nightly by 15 or more points, which place the Suns in far more advantageous spot and could mean heavier minutes for Lakers regulars, this might matter later in the series.

It goes without saying Phoenix has to run, but as they proved against San Antonio, it’s not about running and dunking for layups, it is about beating the Lakers defense back and making the extra pass to find the three-point shooter who is open to bury the shot and wear down the big guys in gold and purple late in games.

Jackson pulled out his clichéd “zen master” card saying Nash carry’s the ball (and Michael Jordan did what in Chicago when Phil was there), but he picked the wrong guy in Nash.

"It's news to me. I'm fortunate. I don't know if I've been called for a carry yet,'' he said after the Suns practiced Saturday, then he added straight-faced: "I've never heard anyone accuse me of carrying it. I mean, the best coach in the league Greg Popovich (of San Antonio) didn't have a problem with it last week.''(Nice subtle rip on the Zen-ster)

As is said in boxing, “contrasting styles make fights”. That will be the case out West, with the Lakers trying to control tempo and have their size be a difference maker, while Phoenix wants to play fast, hit 3’s and make enough defensive stops to matter.

(In my best NBA analyst voice and following all spoken clichés) At the end of the day, the Lakers having a long break before the series, another lengthy break before heading to Arizona, (I'm surprised California government officials are letting the Lakers play in Zona, since Sherrif Joe will want to see Gasol's papers) gives them rest and ample time to make adjustments, which makes them awfully difficult to beat unless the opponent plays great defense.

3Daily Winners Pick- L.A. Lakers (-350) in seven over Phoenix (+290)

Swing Week starts the MLB action

This is the only week of the Major League baseball season that players truly hate. It’s referred to as “swing week” because every team will play 2 two-game series this week before the weekend. The purpose is to balance out the schedule since the two leagues have differing amount of teams, which forces uncommon numbers to make 162-game slate work out. This used to be done later in the year, but the clubs worked with the schedule-maker to get it out of the way sooner in the year.

In the National League, a couple of teams from the Keystone State will meet for a pair. Philadelphia (23-13, +5.1 units) returns home off a 4-1 road trip which included sweeping the Brewers in Milwaukee. The Phillies are 11-3 this month and four games clear in the NL East of competitors. The always potent Philly batting order is now the best in the National League at 5.6 runs per game, but improved all around pitching has lit this candle for them.

Pittsburgh at 16-21 (+4.9) isn’t terrible (at least not yet), nor are they particularly good. The Pirates problem is offense, ranked next to last in scoring at 3.5 runs per contest and 14th in home runs with 29 in the senior circuit.

Philadelphia is a -220 money line favorite having to face Charlie Morton (1-6, 9.19 ERA). Even with a couple of surprising wins at Wrigley Field the past three days, Pittsburgh is still 29-70 as a road underdog of +100 or higher.

As we head down the hill for May, having Atlanta and the New York Mets holding down the last two spots in the NL East is as surprising the Flyers and Canadiens in the East Finals in the NHL. The Mets (18-20, -3.6) fall is particularly appalling since they were in first place in the division not that long ago, however a 4-12 road record will do that to a team.

The Braves (18-19, -3.8) haven’t been very good on the road either, which is why they have to take advantage of this situation at Turner Field. Atlanta caught Milwaukee at the right time and swept them, took series over pitching-poor Arizona and host Mets who have lost five in a row. Thanks to Tim Hudson yesterday, the Braves are 17-4 with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less in last game and they are -144 ML home favorites tonight.

In the American League, Toronto (23-16, +10.5) prepares to face first place Minnesota. A great deal of verbile could be used to describe the Blue Jays in 2010. Toronto has won 11 of 14 after sweeping another club atop their division in Texas. The Jays lead the AL in home runs with 60, slugging percentage (.459) and total bases (612). They will face Kevin Slowey (4-3, 4.62 ERA) of the Twins and Toronto is 20-11 against right-hand pitchers, averaging 5.8 runs per contest.

The Twins (23-14, +4.5) finally ended their 12-game road losing streak against the Yankees in dramatic fashion with Jason Kubel’s grand slam home run off Mariano Rivera on Sunday. However, the Blue Jays are also tough on Minnesota with 11-3 mark the last couple of years. The Twinkies are -115 ML choice and are 12-2 when favored by -150 or less this season.

If the Rangers (20-18, -0.6) are feeling a little uneasy being in first place in the AL West it’s understandable. After being swept north of the border, they return to Rangers Ballpark and hear the unmistakable rumble of the Angels chasing them. With Texas having lost last three, Los Angeles (18-21, -4.2) won a trio at home over Oakland, bringing them back to within 2.5 games in the division.

Texas is back home where they are 13-7 this season. The Rangers mission for this two-game set is to get into L.A.’s redoubtable bullpen that carries 6.38 ERA (2.118 WHIP) away from home. The Rangers are 24-8 vs. a poor pen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse. The Angels finally got great pitching over the weekend in permitting three total runs to the A’s and had two shutouts.

“We’re only going to go as far as our starters are going to perform,” manager Mike Scioscia said. “If this weekend is any indication, hopefully we’re starting to make some strides forward.”

Inconsistent Scott Kazmir (2-3, 6.82) is the Halos starter and his club is a +140 ML underdog, yet is 14-3 after consecutive wins by four runs or more.

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Trying to stay ahead of the game this Sunday

Only an extra inning defeat prevented us from 3-0 Saturday, nevertheless we are still 42-23 in last 65 plays. Today’s 82.3 percent system and perfect trend are tied together on the west coast of Panhandle State. The fella’s from the LCC are in agreement about who wins tonight’s Sunday night MLB game with Free Play. Good Luck

What I saw today - The Tigers overcame a 6-1 deficit and rallied back to defeat the Red Sox 7-6 in extra innings on Saturday. That marked the fourth time this season that the Tigers have won a game in which they have trailed by at least five runs. No other team has done that more than once this season (the Mets, Arizona and Toronto have one such win each). Detroit only won three games of that type all of last season and have not done that more than four times in a season since 1941 (five). Thanks Elias

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Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Mariners who are motion sickness AL team scoring 4.2 or less run a contest, against a club with a quality bullpen of 3.33 ERA or less, on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors. This system is 28-6, 82.3 percent the last five seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 15-0 at home after scoring four runs or less in three straight games over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection has the Phillies by 10-0 vote for tonight.

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NBA Eastern Finals Outlook

(2) Orlando vs (4) Boston

After the Orlando Magic dismissed atrocious Atlanta in four games, an article appeared on the internet, questioning if this team was as good as the one that went to The Finals a year ago. We’ll let the author of that piece further collect his thoughts while we examine the facts, at least as we know them.

Orlando has won all eight assignments in the NBA Playoffs without a loss. An argument could easily be made of those teams in the final four, the Magic have had the path of least resistance, encountering two obviously flawed clubs that any of the other three teams to join them in the middle of May would have also beaten.

In Orlando’s defense, they can only do what is asked of them and have they ever.

Dwight Howard and the Magic are 8-0 and 7-1 ATS in the playoffs. They have won these games by an average of 17.1 points a contest and covered the spread by incredible 8.8 PPG. (There only non-cover was by half a point)

Since Feb. 28, Stan Van Gundy’s team is 28-3; let that sink in a few seconds, 28-3 and equally remarkable 23-7-1 ATS. While LeBron James and Cleveland were resting up at the end of the regular season to be eliminated from the playoffs roughly a month earlier than they expected, Orlando was just getting started. They are 14-0 and 13-1 ATS since Apr. 4.

Just how good has the Magic been in last 31 games, consider they have outscored opposing teams by 436 points or 14.0 PPG. The other three teams left in the postseason did not have that large of a total points differential over 82 games! In other words Orlando is lampooning everyone these days. One other note everyone might have missed, the team with the largest point differential in the NBA was the Magic at +7.5 and since 2004, all but one of the teams that won the NBA title led their conference in this category.

Now that we’ve established just how good Jameer Nelson and his teammates are what about Boston. The Celtics just took down the “chosen” Cavaliers who were supposed to be NBA champions. After an incredibly substandard second half of the season in which Betty White and Abe Vigoda (both were in the now famous Snickers commercial) appeared downright spry compared to the Celtics, they’ve had a playoff renaissance much like Ms. White’s career.

Kevin Garnett has been bedrock solid, playing to his strengths of the mid-range jump shot and being a presence on defense. Ray Allen quietly had a strong second half of the season after hearing trade rumors, driving foes crazy running off screens and draining jump shots. Though his foot speed might not be as good as it was, Allen’s knack of squaring up players on defense and picking their pocket, places the Celtics in advantageous positions.

Paul Pierce is showing signs of life, shooting the ball better and back to taking two dumb fouls a game. Glen Davis and Tony Allen are making contributions off the bench and there was even a Rasheed Wallace sighting, adding a positive contribution here and there.

As good as all these players have played in the first two rounds of the playoffs, none of this occurs without Rajon Rondo. Much like college basketball has become reliant on point guard play, the same is also true among the elite teams in the NBA.

Rondo was the singularly dominant performer in Cleveland series, with his ability on offense and defense and he set the tone for Boston throughout.

After being a deplorable spread team all season, The C’s are 8-3 SU and ATS in the postseason and building confidence.

Part of that feeling is being supplied by coach Doc Rivers. The former Orlando coach is not going to dazzle anyone with his X and O work, which is why he brought in assistant coach Tom Thibodeau to make the strategic moves. Like a smart boss, Rivers understands his strengths and weaknesses and surrounds himself with people that compliment his skill set.
This sets up as fascinating series, especially at point guard with Rondo vs. Nelson. If either gains an edge, their team automatically has a greater chance of winning.

Watching Orlando pass the ball on offense is like a video game or pinball machine. The ball is continually in motion at various angles and if a Magic player is open, he’ll be found. This places a premium on Boston defenders to stay with their man and have arms extended to tip passes or have body parts in passing lanes. If not, the 3-point party starts for Orlando.

Pierce and Allen can certainly matchup with Vince Carter and Matt Barnes and if they can gain the upper hand they could frustrate them since they’ve played more scrimmage games than actual hard-nose basketball recently.

Orlando won three of four meetings this season (2-2 ATS). You can presume the home court not to mean much just like last year playoff series, when the road team won three times. The Magic might be the best team in basketball, nonetheless that doesn’t mean they won’t be tested by this proud bunch from Boston who believes they can win it all again.

3Daily Winners Pick- Orlando (-260) in seven over Boston (+210)

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NHL Eastern Finals Preview

(7)Philadelphia vs (8) Montreal

It hardly gets any nuttier in the NHL than this. The Philadelphia Flyers won a shootout on the last day of the regular season to make the Stanley Cup playoffs. After dismantling New Jersey in five games, all they did was become the third team in league history to come back and win a series after trailing 3-0. Yawn. Oh, and for good measure they were also just the third team in NHL history to trail by three goals in a Game 7 and still emerge the winner of the contest. (The first to do so in regulation however) Double Yawn.

The Montreal Canadiens are the most storied hockey team in history with the 24 Cup championships and all they did was become the first eighth seed to win a series down three games to one and follow that up by beating the defending champions Pittsburgh, having never led in the series until winning the seventh and deciding game. (Oh how common)
As truly wacky as this has been, the real fun starts now for the players and coaches, because the winner qualifies to play for Lord Stanley’s trophy.

Despite the stakes, one or both teams could crack from being physically and emotionally spent. Montreal has played two max series and faced elimination five times without wilting; can they muster up enough energy to continue? At least the Canadiens have been off since Wednesday, while Philadelphia has to lace up the skates less than 48 hours after one of the most improbable comebacks ever, what emotion can they bring to the rink to start the series?

When the playoffs first started, Montreal was going to be overwhelmed at the forward position, so much for that belief. They have skillfully used lack of size to their advantage, being quicker to the puck to dig it out against the boards, while being elusive enough to be stay away from big hits and get worn down.

Mike Cammalleri is the “terminator” for opposing playoff teams with 12 goals in 14 games (plus six assists) and he has been the most dominant offensive performer in the postseason. Scott Gomez and Brian Gionta are seasoned veterans having played most of their careers in Philly and they know what to expect.

P.K. Subban has emerged as a key member of the Canadiens' defense, blocking shots and standing up offensive players and goalie Jaroslav Halak has been unflappable as his demeanor has never lent itself to panic, despite all the obstacles.

Mike Richards, Daniel Briere and Simon Gagne have carried the offense load for the Flyers, each making significant contributions in the Boston gag-fest. They have the size and skill to make trouble for Montreal.

On the subject of size, is it clear now why Philadelphia traded future prospects for Chris Pronger. The long time defenseman is said to be too slow and lumbering to play at 35 years old, but he has logged the most ice time of any player at nearly 30 minutes a game and all he does is add to winning teams and has 11 points in a dozen playoff games.

Netminder Michael Leighton is being thrust into the spotlight. He doesn’t have to be better than the Habs Halak; he just has to be as good, which could be a tall order in its own right.
Both teams have been relentless in killing penalties and above average in man-advantage situations. Philadelphia is bit more prone to taking silly penalties and if Montreal is to advance to finals, they must capitalize in this area.

The Flyers are bigger, deeper and generally more skilled (this is old news to the Canadiens) and have to keep their wits about them and contain Cammalleri and make Halak uncomfortable in his net.

There is no surprise factor for either team, thus the better club that plays smarter and with more skill will move on. With not much to choose from, let’s ride the hot goaltender and slick assassin around the goal and take Montreal.

3Daily Winners Pick- Montreal (-115) in six over Philadelphia (-105)