Early Football Line Moves

The early Line Moves continue in the NFL after a brutal 0-3 day on the sides, lowering the record to 13-15, 46.4 percent. The Totals did well with 2-1 record, raising season record to 26-19-1, 57.7 percent. I’ll include last week’s college bowl information. South Florida has come down from 14 to 11 points this week and I added one more game from looking into changes close to game time as I said I would.

NFL Sides
Tennessee -1 to +1
Chicago -6 to -4

NFL Totals
Mia/ KC 42 to 40
Cin/Cleve 35 to 32
Atl/Minn 47 to 43.5
Carol/NYG 40 to 37.5
GB/Chic 44 to 41

Bowl Game Sides
TCU Pick to -2.5
Notre Dame +2 to -1

Bowl Game Totals
TCU/Boise 48 to 46

That is all for the first seven bowl games.

A Full Saturday of Wagering Action

A rugged 0-2 day, let’s hope for a better day. I’ll pass along the betting trends of the LLC today in the early bowl games. The Top Trend looks at on of today’s participant’s and it’s not pretty. Today’s Best system is in college hoops and is 85.4 percent. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like Arizona, when the line is +3 to -3, off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off two or more consecutive home wins. The Wildcats are in negative situation, facing a system that is 23-4 ATS, 85.4 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) Fresno State is 1-15 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.

Free Football Selections -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus looks this way about today’s bowls. Wake Forest has 58 percent backing, Memphis 77 percent, Fresno State 66 percent and Arizona and BYU 50-50.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Special Night in Big D

The Dallas Cowboys have yet to secure a playoff position and will play their third straight contest against a fully-loaded defensive team, built to stop any offense. But as we have seen in recent weeks, this Dallas defense is the equal of any in the NFL and will have a great deal to say about the last regular season game ever to by played by the Cowboys in Texas Stadium. If Dallas (9-5, 7-7 ATS) has any intention of making a real Super Bowl run, this becomes a contest they have to have.

While in many cities the closing of a stadium who be big news, in Dallas it is dwarfed by stories about Terrell Owens, his latest supposed feud with Tony Romo and Jason Witten and Jerry Jones calling out players questioning their toughness and than later retracting. Just another day in Big D.

What should be talked about is the Dallas defense, which has allowed 13.8 points per game since the bye week. Since being run over by for 200 yards by the Giants in New York, they have permitted only 68 yards per game and Dallas is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game.

The team wearing the black jersey’s won’t care about any of the nonsense, they just want to lineup, hit in the mouth, knock you upside the head and see who comes out on top.

Baltimore (9-5, 10-4 ATS) has the league’s second-ranked total defense (257.5 yards per game) and third-ranked scoring defense at 15.2 points a game. The Ravens bottled up Pittsburgh for most of the game, until they were unable to solve the Steelers 92-yard closing drive that resulted in a somewhat controversial touchdown, losing 13-9 with under a minute to play. Those kinds of losses can be devastating to a team and Baltimore is 0-6 ATS after a loss by six or less points over the last two seasons.

Quarterback Joe Flacco struggled against Pittsburgh last week, completing just 11 passes in a 13-9 loss, and has another tough matchup in Dallas. If anything, the play of the Cowboys defense, which has harassed quarterbacks for 53 sacks, including eight of Eli Manning, has at least kept the team in contention for the postseason. But as Flacco’s shown, he does not need to dominate from start to finish. He just needs to capitalize on one or two big plays and let his defense handle the rest. The Ravens have covered four of last five road games.

Bookmaker.com has Dallas as 4.5-point favorite with total of 38.5. This contest will be on the NFL Network starting at 8:15 Eastern.

Keys to the Game-
The Baltimore front seven is going to have to have a huge game. The Dallas running game isn’t as strong as it should be, but the behemoths they have are still capable of wearing down defenses in fourth quarter. Make their blocking schemes uncertain with speed and deception and keep the pressure on Romo to make miscues. Flacco seems to have hit the wall with the long season, as his mechanics have him missing high on passes. Work the passing game in shorter progression to build confidence, otherwise Ravens fall to 2-11 ATS as road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

Dallas needs to feed off the emotion of the moment and jump on Baltimore, who would seem incapable of coming from behind with style of play. If Romo gets protection, the Birds secondary is damaged, meaning T.O. could keep quiet, at least for a moment with big plays. Running back Tashard Choice is running hard and effectively, give him the pigskin and the Cowboys close Texas Stadium with five straight wins and covers.

Running with the Bowls

Other sports journalists can whine about too many bowl games, sports bettors like us are just grateful for the chance of most action, with 34 sides and totals to consider over the next 20 days. The first four are available Saturday and plenty of tough decisions to made. Navy and Wake Forest start the festivities in Washington, D.C. Two bowl games will be offered in afternoon action, with 7-5 clubs squaring off against .500 teams. In the nitecap, Arizona and BYU matchup that could have a little more spice than your typical pre-Christmas contest. Take note that favorites before Dec.25 are 21-2 and 14-9 ATS.

EagleBank Bowl –ESPN 11:00 E
Navy (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs Wake Forest (7-5, 5-7 ATS)

The bowl season starts in our nation’s capital without the usual bang, but with more of a whimper. It’s a rematch (any bowls worst nightmare) of Navy and Wake Forest from Sept. 27, when Navy pulled the 24-17 upset catching 17-points on the road. The Demon Deacons turned out to be vastly overrated and are just 13-24 ATS as a favorite. Wake Forest is 5-3 and 4-2 ATS in bowls.

The Navy’s top-rated running game deserves most of the attention at 294.7 yards per game, however many will be singing the praises of the defense off consecutive shutouts. The Midshipmen have been one of the best spread teams for a numbers of years and they are 18-5 ATS in all December games since 1992. A 6-7-1 bowl record is fair, but a 7-2 ATS mark will fatten a wallet.

Why to Watch and Wager:

This is the first time in 63 years Wake Forest is playing the same team twice in the season. You would believe revenge would be a big motivator for the Demon Deacons, who are 20-6 ATS vs. meager passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards a game. Navy’s defense has to feel pretty proud after hanging eight straight zeros on the scoreboard and not a touchdown scored on them in over nine quarters. Their must have been something about the letter “W” this season, with Wake 103rd in total offense, among five different universities with that letter that finished in the 100’s in total yards gained. The Middies are 17-5 ATS on the road versus poor offensive teams averaging 310 or less yards per game.

Bookmaker Line – Wake Forest -3, 43.5

New Mexico Bowl –ESPN 2:30 E
Colorado State (6-6, 6-5 ATS) vs Fresno State (7-5, 2-10 ATS)

It was another disappointing campaign for Fresno State, who was the preseason favorite to win the WAC. The 105th ranked run defense took care of any hopes of the Bulldogs being extremely successful this season. Fresno State became a steady play against team this season at 2-10 ATS and is on a 1-9 ATS run as a favorite. Fresno State is 10-7 and 6-5 ATS in the postseason, thou 0-4 ATS as faves.

Colorado State won its last two games to become bowl eligible after two losing seasons. First year coach Steve Fairchild’s team should have a chance if the Rams can gear up the running game, being 15-3 ATS when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt. "We still have a lot of work to do here at Colorado State, in all areas of our program, but this is obviously a step in the right direction, and a tremendous reward for our 17 seniors, who've worked extremely hard during their time here in Fort Collins," Fairchild said. Colorado State is 1-4 ATS as a bowl underdog to go with 4-7 record.

Why to Watch and Wager:

Colorado State averages 263.3 yards passing per game with senior Billy Farris at the controls. Fresno State is weaker against the run than the pass, yet lacks playmakers in the secondary with a FBS-low four interceptions on the season. The Bulldogs roll over like a puppy after a spread loss like they suffered in last game to Boise State and are odorous 1-15 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons. If Fresno State gets the running game in order, they should have no problems slugging it out in the trenches against Rams run defense that was allowed 185.7 yards per game, which is ranked 100th.

Bookmaker Line – Fresno State -3, 60

MagicJack St. Petersburg Bowl –ESPN2, 4:30 E
South Florida (7-5, 4-7-1 ATS) vs. Memphis (6-6, 5-5-1 ATS)

South Florida, based in Tampa, will be very close to home in inaugural St. Petersburg, FL Bowl. The Bulls never came together as a team predicted to win the Big East title this season, as they were undermined by -7 turnover margin, in losing four of last five. The South Florida defense did its best, finishing 13th in the country in yards allowed at 291.1 per game. South Florida is 23-15 ATS in non-conference action.

Memphis made another late season push to finish 6-6, winning three of last four contests. The Tigers tamed Tulane 45-6 to have a chance to be invited to a bowl; however are 2-15 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game. Neither team has played in many bowls, though South Florida has an excuse being a FBS member only since 2001. The Bulls are 1-2 SU and ATS and Memphis is 3-2 all-time failing to cover as underdog on both occasions.

Why to Watch and Wager:

It’s hard to say if coach Tommy West is getting the max out of the Memphis program, yet with his continued back luck at the quarterback position, just earning a bowl invite is darn good. West teams have had a penchant for playing well against good defenses like South Florida , with 9-1 ATS in road games vs. defensive teams allowing 310 or fewer yards a game. The Bulls have to travel all of 32 miles to the home of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for this bowl encounter. Quarterback Matt Grothe had a fairly disappointing senior season, trying to do too much with not much help from receivers who couldn’t get open. This is his one last chance for redemption in front of a largely partisan USF crowd. Check out defensive tackle George Selvie, who will likely go into NFL draft as a junior. After scoring only seven points in snowy and wind-swept West Virginia in last contest, the Bulls are 8-1 ATS after scoring nine points or less last game.

Bookmaker Line – South Florida -11, 55

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl-ESPN 8:00 E
BYU (10-2, 3-8 ATS vs Arizona (7-5 SU & ATS)

BYU is probably mildly unhappy about not winning the conference, yet backers of the Mormon University always enjoy making the trek to Sin City. This will be their fourth consecutive trip to this bowl, thus the enthusiasm of the players is a question mark. The Cougars 17th ranked offense will match wits with the 21st ranked Arizona defense. What ended up costing BYU an undefeated season was a defense that was too slow against faster teams. The Cougars are 1-7 ATS since October.

The Wildcats only had one real bad defensive game against Oregon, allowing 55 points, otherwise were solid. Arizona is a field goal favorite with quarterback Willie Tuitama leading a balance attack averaging over 400 yards a game, which is 3-10 ATS in that role in non-conference play. Interesting to note, the Mountain West was 6-1 and 4-3 ATS in regular season meetings. The ‘Cats are in first bowl since 1998.

Why to Watch and Wager:

BYU has won eight in a row at Boyd Stadium, including two in a row over Pac-10 opponents. This should be the motivating factor for quarterback Max Hall and the offense to play well. The Cougars are 13-3 ATS in road games versus defensive teams allowing 310 yards or fewer yards per game, nevertheless this will be their third consecutive contest away from Provo and they are just 4-20 ATS after a two-game road trip. Count the ‘Cats as excited to be in a bowl game and this might be a prickly encounter as theses two schools have faced off the previous two seasons, splitting the contests. Coach Mike Stoops saved his job for the time being and hopes his team is ready, since they 3-8 and 4-7 ATS away from Tucson.

Bookmaker Line – Arizona -3.5, 59.5

Getting Ready for Wagering Weekend

Came back with a winning 2-1 mark and prepare for a big sports weekend. Our Best Trend looks in the NBA with a dysfunctional team that still manages to cover spreads. Jason of the Left Coast Connection returns on a real streak and gives us his Best Bet for Friday. No outstanding systems in sports today, thus we’ll supply a rare NFL Totals system for Sunday. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, off two consecutive road losses, with a winning record on the season. Tampa Bay is the qualifying team and this totals system is 22-4, 84.6 percent, dating back 25 years for this extremely rare play.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The New York Knicks are 11-1 ATS after playing three consecutive games as an underdog this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Jason from the LLC did not do very well in football this season and started poorly in basketball. To his credit, he kept fighting and retuned some of his methods and over the last 5 days is 24-9, 72.7 percent in all his wagers. He loves the Detroit Pistons and went large on them.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Making a Case for Betting Good College Hoops Teams

Last week I wrote an article about an easy method to handicapping the National Basketball Association. It is so easy, you don’t even have to be smarter than a fifth grader to do it (I have to give one of my favorite TV shows a free plug in a round about way). Speaking of the Jeff Foxworthy-hosted show on Fox, Friday’s at 8:00, my favorite question I have seen a contestant answer incorrectly was “What ocean is named after India”? Not quite as easy of question as “What state is named after the Mississippi River, but very close. The poor guy, I believe he was an accountant from Toledo, had used up all of his “lifelines” of help so he was stuck coming up with the answer himself. After a considerable amount of thinking coupled with stammering, he responded with “the Bay of Bombay”. How would you like that guy doing your taxes?

Regarding the NBA handicapping article, I had some readers question me if this simplistic method I wrote about was also good for handicapping college basketball games. If you didn’t see the article, the basic premise was to place your bets on teams with winning straight-up records as compared to losing teams. There was a distinct correlation of cashing tickets by sticking to teams with the better straight-up record and staying away from the bottom dwellers.

In college hoops, with having over 200 regularly lined-teams playing 25 to 40 games a season, I went about looking at this methodology a little differently than how I did it for the NBA with its 30 teams. I wanted to keep it very basic but needed to keep the qualifying data set somewhat small.

I felt a good way to reduce risk would be to take a look at teams who have covered the point spread at a good rate over each of the past four years and see if I can uncover any gems that will help me win. While I do believe in longer-term views as for uncovering trends and tendencies, I do also believe that each sport evolves and changes from year to year.

I went to the StatFox website where they have the best collection and history of college basketball statistics that I have ever seen available on the Internet. If you have never been to the StatFox website and you love statistics, you will be making this site a regular stop when you see what’s available. And, even more importantly, the numbers are sortable. They don’t just put up the top 25 or the top fifty in a category, they have all lined teams with virtually any statistic you would want to follow. Statfox.com is one of the best tools any handicapper can utilize no matter what sport they are handicapping. And the greatest thing about it, the StatFox site is entirely free!

I went to the team report page and sorted the teams by their ATS winning percentage. I eliminated teams that did not play a full season of lined games, ones with a point spread every week. You often have a Texas State or Alcorn State that plays just a few lined games against large non-conference schools every year. There is no point in having their statistics skew the results.

I then looked at teams that covered the point spread at least 60% of the time for the entire season. I did this for the past four years. There were a total of 134 teams that qualified at that rate. The number each year was very constant, between 30 and 36 each year. In 2004-05, of the 34 teams on the 60% list, 25 had winning records and nine had a season below .500, then a 28-6 mark in 2005-06 of over .500 teams, and followed by a 30-6 tally for the 2006-07 season. Last year there was a drop-off to only 30 teams total that had an ATS record of 60% or better. Of those 30teams, 23 had winning records. The total for all four years was 28 teams out of 134, just 20.9%, had losing records but still covered 60% or better of their games against the number.
We have talked about betting on teams that win straight-up at a good rate. How about finding teams to bet against? Let’s go back four seasons and see what we can find.

I looked at teams that did not cover at least 40% of their games for the season. Over the four years analyzed, 122 teams in total did not reach our Mendoza line. Of those 122 money-burning teams, only 26 of them had winning records for the season, a paltry 17.6%. Just like in betting on teams with winning records can help you be profitable in your wagering endeavors, betting against teams that have below .500 records can put money in your pocket, also.

Out of curiosity, I took another way to look at this concept. How do very high percentage winning teams do against the point spread? I trekked back to the StatFox team report page, sorted the teams by straight-up winning percentage each of the past four years. I looked at teams that won 75% or better of their games.

Would you believe that 85% of these high-quality teams had .500 or better ATS records? I was surprised the number would be that high. Combined over the four-year span, there were 107 teams that won 75% of their games. Again, these are only regularly-lined teams. Last year there were 27 qualifying squads with only 4 losing ATS marks. In the 2006-07 campaign, not one out of 24 teams had a losing ATS record and only one, Memphis, had a .500 mark covering the number. Three seasons ago it was 6 teams with a below .500 ATS out of 26 at 75% or better. And in 2005-06 saw 28 high-quality teams and just 6 with losing ATS tallies.

Granted, nobody can see in the future to know with 100% accuracy what teams are going to win 75%+ of their games, or for that matter, even have a winning or losing year. However, at this time of the season you should have a very good idea of teams with that potential.

In trying to come up with things that could sink this generalized method of handicapping, my first thought was how do “public teams” do ATS. These are teams with a strong national following, sterling reputation, and who are usually high-quality teams winning year after year. Last year I looked at what I consider the top five “public teams”: North Carolina, Duke, Kansas, UCLA, and Kentucky.

I could find nothing over the past several years that uncovered a high degree of point spread profits betting against them. Last year all five teams had winning ATS scores combining for a 98-70 mark, 58.3%. In fact, I unearthed more profitable spots than negative ones, such as North Carolina since 2000 is 55-24, 69.6 %, as a home double-digit favorite below 30 points.

Well, need to run. My favorite television show is starting. Tonight’s contestant is a dentist from Denver. I want to see how he does in Fifth Grade American History.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority is frequent contributor.

Seven Betting Days until Christmas

Finally got nailed with a losing day (1-2) as our string of perfect trends ended, thus we had to find one and did in the NHL tonight. Today’s Top System is scintillating 88.9 percent winner and involves college basketball totals. Kendall isn’t losing, this is why he gets to stick around with his Free Play. For those that frequent this location, they know Kendall is having sensational NFL season. He is passing on tonight’s contest, initially favoring the Colts, but with all the injuries is waiting for better chance to win. Good Luck.

I’d like to mention to all readers, this isn’t just an information blog, it is a shared information blog. Some of you respond when asked, that’s great, but you don’t have to be asked, just comment on anything you read. All we ask is not be profane, rather be clever, it shows greater intelligence. This is a shared experience, so share!

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY UNDER on all teams like Louisville where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points, after four straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after playing a game where both teams score 80 points or more. This system is sensational 24-3, 88.9 percent.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Boston Bruins are 12-0 against the money line after having won two of their last three games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection has not lost in this spot in fours days (2-0-2) and likes Louisiana Tech to upset Samford outright.

Do the Jaguars Have Bite as a Home Underdog?

A year after winning a dozen games, including one in the postseason, and reaching the divisional round of the AFC playoffs, nobody predicted Jacksonville would fall so precipitously to 5-9 after beating Green Bay. Buried in last place in the AFC South, the Jaguars own poor numbers that reflect their position in the standings. The Jaguars are 20th in total offense, 17th in rushing defense, T-17th in sacks and a turnover ratio of minus-2.

Jacksonville (4-10 ATS), which split its first six games, has won just two of seven at home heading into this Thursday night game at Municipal Stadium. After topping Detroit, 31-21, the Colts have the longest current winning streak in the NFL—seven games—and are approaching their seventh straight trip to the playoffs.

The Jaguars have been chasing Indianapolis (10-4, 5-8-1 ATS) ever since the NFL went to its current division format in 2002 and pitted them as rivals in the AFC South. But that’s not to say these teams have been separated by a wide margin. Even though Jacksonville trails the all-time series, 11-4, all but five of the matchups have been decided by a touchdown or fewer, with the Jaguars 9-3-1 ATS in last dozen meetings.

Indianapolis is one of five teams the Jaguars have beaten this season. It happened in Week 3 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Fred Taylor, who two weeks ago passed O.J. Simpson on the all-time rushing list, moving into 16th place, rushed for 121 yards and Maurice Jones-Drew added 107 yards and a touchdown to lead Jacksonville to a 23-21 victory in one of their highlight victories of the season. Quarterback David Garrard completed 16 of 22 passes for 167 yards.

The Colts knocked Garrard out of the first of two meetings a year ago when they rolled to an easy 29-7 victory in Week 7 as three-point road favorites. Garrard left in the second quarter with an ankle injury and former backup Quinn Gray was picked off twice and held to 56 yards passing on 24 attempts. Seven weeks later, a healthy Garrard (257 yards, two touchdowns) and Peyton Manning (288, 4 TDs) hooked up in an old-fashioned shootout also won by Indianapolis, 28-25, failing to cover the touchdown favorite role.

Both Garrard and head coach Jack Del Rio received hefty offseason contracts, and neither has delivered in the first year of the deal. Just last week Garrard eclipsed 3,000 yards and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 13-to-10, and Del Rio has been unable to keep problems from spilling out of the locker room.

For the most part, the Colts bring out the best in the Jaguars. Typically they give a great effort and Jacksonville is 8-2 ATS as December dogs against AFC South foes. It will be interesting to see if the Jags use a similar offensive game plan as last week, using tight ends in short passing game and throwing deeper passes to Dennis Northcutt, who had first 100-yard receiving game in four years last week. Jacksonville has not covered consecutive games since weeks 15 and 16 last season.

Bookmaker.com has the Colts as six-point pick, with the total lodged at 44. Indianapolis is 8-2 ATS as road favorite of six or less with revenge, plus 14-3 against the spread after two straight wins by 10 or more points.

Normally at this time, Indy has wrapped up division and is healing injuries for playoffs. Not this year and despite the Jaguars record, this will be good test for Colts run defense, which appears improved, however facing Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit might be a bigger reason why they look better. Amazingly, Tony Dungy’s club is only 1-10 ATS versus weaker defensive teams allowing 5.65 or more yards per play.

This will be the final Thursday night telecast on the NFL Network for this season, which will start at usual 8:15 Eastern time. This series is like Charley Brown and Lucy, with Jacksonville being the underdog for the 16th time in a row facing the Colts.

A Hump Day of Betting Action

That’s what we’ve been looking for, a 3-0 day Tuesday and we are 7-0-2 the last three days. Kendall of the LLC had sharp winner on Houston last night and offers another Free Play. Today’s Top Trend isn’t perfect but awfully close at 13-1 in college hoops. The Best Basketball System on the planet for Wednesday in the NBA is 84.6 ATS, with a different viewpoint. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home favorites like Detroit after a win by six points or less against opponent after trailing their last two games by 10+ points at the half. Since 2004 this system is 22-4 ATS, 84.6 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) N. C. State is 1-13 ATS after playing a game as an underdog over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection has not lost in this spot in three days (granted 2 pushes) and likes UTEP to take down Texas Tech.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Don’t Go Bowling for Fun – Execute to Win

All the bowl games are set with a wide spectrum of choices for fans and bettors alike. With 34 choices spread out over 20 days, it is very easy to get caught up in having the desire to wager on every game. What anyone does is their business, however it is wise to take a step back and take this all in. One of the real advantages for bettors in this position is time, so make sure not to waste it.

It is best to start with fundamental handicapping to establish a base. Here is where you break apart what a team has done running and passing the ball and stopping the run and the pass. When doing this it is best to use the overall statistics as a snap shot and not have it become the whole picture. The reason is every team is essentially different in some aspects from what they were in September. Thus it is important to understand how any team has played from November until the end of the season. Along the same lines it is also wise to use the numbers for how a team played on the road. Here is a simple exercise you can do to seek strengths or weaknesses among the 68 teams competing in the bowl game. Using Excel spreadsheet or the trusty paper and pencil, put the match-ups together using the following categories, seeking the national rankings 1-119 and make sure to leave a column open next to number used:

*Yards rushing
*Points per game
*Total yards per game
*Yards passing
*Yards per point

Remember, defense may win championships, but offense wins bowl games. After you have completed this, next fill in how these various teams have performed on the road (Hawaii being only true exception) right next numbers you previously listed. The point of this is to find out how teams perform on the road compared to playing all games. If you find real disparity, now you have the makings of a fundamental difference in how a team plays and this should be duly noted. Repeat the process for defensive numbers.

The reason I listed running yards first, is I feel it is the single most important number in fundamental handicapping for bowl games. Being able to run the ball or stop the run is about desire and goes to the very core of the game. The minimum layoff any team will have is Navy, who is playing just two weeks after last game and Ohio State will once again have the longest layoff, having last played on December 22. To execute the passing game, timing and repetitiveness are the most important factors. With these types of layoffs, it is easy to get stale no matter how hard you practice, as game speed is far different than practice. The running game is about getting off the ball and knocking somebody down and a runner willing to hit the hole with abandon. Of course skill is required; however a rough and tumble attitude will carry a team a long way.

While throwing out words like desire and attitude, this is another large component in looking at bowl match-ups. What teams are excited to go to a bowl game and what teams are “settling” for the bowl experience?

Wake Forest ended up with just a 7-5 season and a revenge game would seem to be a motivator having lost to Navy already this season, but if you didn’t respect them the first time, why would the Demon Deacons now? South Florida plays in the new St. Petersburg Bowl, not far from home, but is that enough of a reason to be charged up after losing four of last five contests facing 6-6 Memphis? Other teams that could be flat emotionally are Missouri off two bad losses, LSU with three straight defeats and a national championship plays in the Chick-fil-A Bowl in a virtual home game for Georgia Tech. Can Texas Tech and Alabama overcome initial losses late in the season and beat hungry quality opponents?

Other schools might be genuinely excited about bowl assignments. Arizona will have first bowl experience in a decade and not that far from home in Las Vegas. California closed the season with 4-2 record and plays in nearby San Francisco against Miami-Fl, who lost last games and might bring 50 fans plus alum that live in the Bay Area. Rice will charged up, playing in home city at the Texas Bowl and having just second bowl experience since 1949. Mississippi goes bowling for the first time since 2003 at the Cotton Bowl and Cincinnati plays in first major bowl game in school history as Big East champions.

Another factor to consider is strength of a conference. This year, much like the national scene, it was hard to pick a clear conference or two that stood above the rest. The SEC always gets all the love, but beyond Florida and Alabama, clear weaknesses were exposed in and out of conference play. In fact five of the other six teams from this league are underdogs in their respective games. The Big 12 was all over prime time having unprecedented talent at the quarterback position, including Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford and runner-up Colt McCoy. The conference ended up with five of the top nine scoring teams in the country, which also means we all will find how good or bad those defenses were against teams from other leagues. The Big East was bullied in non-conference play and is unlikely to draw much action from bettors. The Big East was actually rated ahead of the Pac-10 in the Sagarin ratings; however that takes into consideration all teams in the league. The Big East had Syracuse to drop their rating, while the Pac-10 had the twin Washington universities to lower there figures. Studying the lines, the lowly Pac-10 is favored in four of their five bowl games and the only underdog is Oregon, who scores 155 points in last three outings.

The Big Ten secured seven slots, mostly because they travel well to get out of bad weather and only Iowa is presently listed as favorite among the group. If you want a shocker, try this on, the aforementioned Sagarin Ratings have the ACC as the top conference in the country. That is a crazy notion, considering they sent the team with the worst record (9-4) Virginia Tech to a BCS Bowl. Nonetheless, the ACC had the best non-conference record among all leagues and is favored in five of its nine post-season conflicts.

One league you will see a great deal is Conference USA, with six teams, likely assuring five or six Over plays on the total, being an offense first – defense second, football conference. The Mountain West Conference had one of their better years in recent memory, with three teams going being Top 25 material most of the season, with 12-0 Utah the strongest. Of the five teams invited to play ball, only TCU is a favorite in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Other points to consider are quarterback play. All the Big 12 teams will have a leg up in this area, being superior in this category. As it turns out, that is among the reasons why the SEC has so many underdogs this bowl season. Rice with Chase Clement, Rutgers with Mike Teel and Nevada with Colin Kaepernick, all deserve an extra look, because these quarterbacks have proven themselves all season. Conversely, expecting Miami-Fl, Maryland and Connecticut to come from behind should they trail by 10 points in their games might be asking too much.

Another point to follow is betting strategy. Most bettors prefer favorites, and a select group will love to play underdogs, both strategies are flawed. The bowls are essentially no different than the regular season. In the last three years of bowl games, the straight up winner is 70-20-2 against the spread, winning 77.7 percent of the time. This points to the simplest and at the same time most complex answer- determine the winner of the game and the money will come to you.

Lastly check out websites relating to the teams in specific games about two weeks prior to the bowl. From informational standpoint, the investigative handicapper can often find nuggets relating to the goals of a coach in a bowl game. If the game is a reward for the season, sometimes those teams come in loose and unfocused. If a coach like say Brian Kelly of Cincinnati is in charge, he is all about demands and pushing his team and will likely have them more focused.

If you have had good, bad or great season in wagering on college football, utilize the time wisely and finish the season with a flourish, loaded with the right information.

Tuesday's Best Bets and Quick Look at MNF Total

Well this is a first, two straight 2-0-1 days at 3Daily Winners. I saw the trend of bettors taking the total upward on the Monday night affair and bet the Under 40 points. In all honesty it was probably fitting the game Pushed, because those on either side had two very lucky or unlucky breaks forcing the outcome. One of the wackier totals games of the year.

A rather thin sports card has us turning attention to the NHL for today’s Best System that is an 82.7 percent winner. Very curious about the outcome, as a number of notable hockey cappers are on the other side. The Perfect Trends have been perfect lately and we have another in the NBA. Good Luck.

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like New Jersey when the money line is -100 to -150, revenging a loss where opponent scored five or more goals, off a home loss by two goals or more. This super system has delivered winners 24 of the last 29 times in the last 10 seasons, including 2-0 this year.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Charlotte Bobcats are 10-0 ATS in home games after a game with five or less offensive rebounds.

Free Basketball Selection -3)Kendall is off two Pushes in the NFL and says take Houston in the NBA tonight.

2008-09 Bowl Handicapping Guide

Some may call this shilling, I'm going with if you want to win big this bowl season, you should purchase a copy of this 2008-09 Bowl Handicapping Guide from StatFox. It should be noted I was not asked to do this, I'm doing it because it's a very good product, packed with relevant information to help you win.

The 2008-09 StatFox Bowl Game Handicapping Guide can be ordered either a hard copy or the PDF version will be in your e-mail boxes shortly. If you haven't ordered one yet, I'd certainly recommend it. Yours truly has written a great deal of information for this superb publication and in fact I'll have an article I write wrote tomorrow right here. To receive a hard copy, you MUST have your order placed by Wednesday Dec.17, 12 PM CT. Call 1.888.578.2836 and ask for Steve. Otherwise order online by clicking here, you will be pleased.

Here is a sample:

ACC
The Atlantic Coast Conference will have a record 10 teams playing in the postseason with five teams in the favorite slot. Two others, Maryland and North Carolina are in pick em’ spreads, and the three remaining teams are underdogs. League champion Virginia Tech plays in the highlight game vs. Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl. Be sure to note the trends below regarding the ACC’s success or lack thereof when favored or getting points. According to past records versus other conferences, North Carolina, Miami, NC State, and Virginia Tech would be “play on” teams while Boston College and Georgia Tech would be in fade spots.


Underdogs have been the flavor of choice in ACC bowl games recently, going just 10-15 SU but 18-7 ATS (72%) in the L25 games. Over the L2 seasons, that dog record is 12-4 ATS (75%).

ACC teams have made for lousy bowl game favorites, going just 6-7 SU & 3-10 ATS (23%) as chalk since 12/29/05.

Against non-BCS conferences, the ACC has stumbled to a 5-4 SU & 3-5-1 ATS (38%) record since ‘98, all as favorites. Versus other BCS conferences, the ACC has been overwhelmed to the tune of a 2-8 SU & 3-6-1 ATS (33%) record in its L10.

The ACC has enjoyed bowl game success vs. the Big East (9-4 SU & 10-3 ATS) and the Pac 10 (5-1 SU & ATS). However, against the SEC, the ACC has been awful, 4-16 SU & 5-13-2 ATS (28%).

Does Sean Avery Deserve a Break?

Sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me. Unfortunately for the cantankerous Dallas Stars forward Sean Avery, the playground proverb did not hold up in the NHL court of conduct.

Two weeks ago prior to a game against Calgary, Commissioner Gary Bettman cold-cocked Avery with a six-game suspension after making “comments detrimental to the league” regarding his ex-girlfriends and fellow hockey players.

Here is Avery’s statement in its entirety: “I'm really happy to be back in Calgary; I love Canada. I just want to comment on how it's become like a common thing in the NHL for guys to fall in love with my sloppy seconds. I don't know what that's about, but enjoy the game tonight.”

The 28-year old Avery, who just signed a four-year 15.5 million dollar contract with Dallas, offered “building excitement” for the game that evening as his alibi. Hollywood actress Elisha Cuthbert is Avery’s old flame and is currently dating Calgary defenseman Dion Phaneuf.

Sounds about right to me…one hockey player talking trash about his opponent’s girlfriend in hopes of getting into his head and getting a rise out of him for some quality entertainment? Isn’t that why hockey fans go to games anyway? To watch these men on skates beat each other’s brains out? And they walk away disappointed if the gloves don’t drop at least once a night.

I am not trying to defend that what Sean Avery said was copacetic. His remarks were off-color and no professional athlete should leverage his status to speak in a derogative manner toward anyone – especially women. These guys are privileged to be playing sports for millions of dollars and most don’t possess the intelligence to make a comment without offending someone so they should keep their mouths shut.

But I am going to argue that Avery’s punishment was not reasonable.

Let’s examine a couple of the most recent suspensions handed out in the National Hockey League. On November 14, New York Islanders defenseman Thomas Pock was banned five games for an ill-advised elbow to the head of Ottawa Senators forward Ryan Shannon. The blow concussed Shannon and he does not recall the incident. Days later, a two-game suspension was placed on the New Jersey Devils Mike Mottau for a hit that put his victim out of commission for 12 weeks with head and leg injuries.

These guys do a lot more than talking on the ice and the sticks they use do break bones. But Sean Avery gets six games for two words?

Precedent set in a league surrounded in criminal turmoil seems to be even softer. Kansas City Chiefs running back Larry Johnson slaps a woman in the face at a bar and only got suspended a single game. Matt Jones of the Jacksonville Jaguars got caught cutting up lines of cocaine with a Wal-Mart card in a parking lot and is disciplined with a three-game banishment.

Did Sean Avery carry a weapon into a public setting, did he physically attack another person or test positive for any kind of illegal drug? No. In an attempt to possibly be humorous, he made a remark about his former love affairs.

What happened to freedom of speech in this country?

Plus, it isn’t like this is the first time (or last) a celebrity has made her way around NHL locker rooms. Remember Anna Kournikova? I’m sure there was worse said about her among the hockey sewing circles, maybe just not publicly.

In 2004 the outspoken wife of MLB pitcher Kris Benson told Howard Stern on his radio show that if her hubby was ever unfaithful to her and got caught, she would have sex with the entire Mets team – including the bat boys. Anna Benson’s remarks were not crude but amusing. Probably not something you want the kids to overhear, much like Avery’s, but not much different than something they might encounter on late night cable.

Avery’s first game eligible to return from suspension would be tonight against the Phoenix Coyotes but he won’t be in the Dallas Stars locker room come game time.

As of Sunday, the organization has decided to part ways with Avery. Details of Avery’s termination are still up in the air but the Stars could trade him (if any teams have interest), send him to the minor leagues or buy out his contract next summer.

Since entering the league in 2001, Sean Avery has quickly become what Dennis Rodman was to the NBA during his tenure. An agitator, the most-hated player in hockey and some have even called him an embarrassment to the sport.

Avery is currently dealing with his personal problems. In addition to the six-game suspension, Avery was requested to enter a 10-day anger counseling and treatment program where he is addressing his “who gives a crap” attitude.

But the NHL and Commissioner Bettman crossed the blue line of injustice while handling this matter.

Forget about the six games without pay, they might have cost an athlete his future in professional hockey. Many, many athletes have done far worse and have received far less in terms of punishment.

I think he deserves another chance. After all of this, maybe Sean Avery has learned to clean up some of his own sloppiness.


Scott Cooley is a freelance write and make contributions at 3Daily Winners and other locales. If you agree or disagree let Scott know here.

Going After it Hard with Monday Wagering Action

A tie may be like kissing your sister, but every gambler knows it’s better than a loss, as we finished 2-0-1 yesterday in the NFL. This Monday we have the Denver in a tremendous system that is great against the spread and on the money line. The Top Trend is perfect once again, looking in on a bad NBA defensive club. Kendall of the LLC pushed here yesterday, but had a super day overall in the NFL and has a play for tonight. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON teams when the line is +3 to -3, who are a higher scoring offensive team, averaging 102 or more points a game, against a good offensive team averaging 98-102 PPG, after a win by 10 points or more. The Denver Nuggets are the team that fits this system that is 26-4 ATS, 86.7 percent, with the outright winner 24-6!

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Golden State Warriors are 0-7 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in consecutive games.

Free Football Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection was as good as anyone yesterday, with 3-0-1 record, raising his NFL record to 41-21-1, 66.1 percent. He pushed here at 3Daily Winners with Atlanta and is playing the UNDER this Monday night in Philly.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Are you Trusting 3rd String Cleveland QB to Cover?

Since it’s the season for giving, perhaps Philadelphia Eagles should send a package to Cleveland quarterback Ken Dorsey in anticipation of this Sunday’s matchup at Lincoln Financial Field—the biggest bottle of Advil money can buy. Sacked just once, but on the run more than Lincoln Burrows from Fox’s Prison Break, Dorsey completed 22 of 43 passes for 150 yards and one interception in the 28-9 loss last week at Tennessee.

It was his first start since 2005, and more of the same pressure can be expected when the Browns visit the City of Brotherly Love for their third Monday Night game of the year. Philadelphia (7-5-1, 8-5 ATS), coming off a 20-14 road win over the Giants, is just 2-2-1 in the last five games and trying to hang on in the NFC playoff race. What better way to stay on a roll than by beating up on a Cleveland (4-9, 6-6-1 ATS) franchise that’s lost two quarterbacks to season-ending injuries in the last three games and has one win since Halloween?

Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson loves to dial up blitzes from every angle, and the rusty Dorsey will find himself under attack from the rush of Eagles, who are 8-1 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons.

Jamal Lewis is averaging a mere 3.53 yards per carry, and the world should be using Braylon Edwards blood to stop sickness, since he couldn’t catch a cold, let alone a pass this season. He’s dropped nearly half of the attempts thrown his way and has just 45 receptions. The Browns are just 10-22 ATS versus good rushing defenses allowing 3.5 or less rushing yards a carry.

The explosion has been missing from the Cleveland offense (21 points in the last three games), save for Brady Quinn’s first two NFL starts, and expecting it to return in Philadelphia with a third-string quarterback is a bigger longshot than the elves dropping off a 50-inch plasma TV.

Donovan McNabb’s bounced back since his benching in Baltimore, throwing for 451 yards and five touchdowns in two games, but more importantly not a single interception. The real trigger to the offense, however, isn’t McNabb but Brian Westbrook, and he has 333 total yards and six scores of his own since the debacle in Baltimore. The Eagles are 13-4 ATS at home vs. passing defenses permitting a completion percentage of 61 percent or worse in the second half of the season.

The Browns defense, led by D’Qwell Jackson’s 130 tackles, has limited the high-powered Texans, Colts and Titans to just 54 combined points and lost to them all. The defeats are more of a direct reflection of the offense’s struggles at the quarterback position, than any shortcoming on defense most of the time.

Bookmaker.com has Philadelphia as 14-point favorite with a total of 39. This could be difficult number for the Eagles to overcome, given they are 14-5 UNDER as a home favorite since 2006. Double digit home favorites are just 8-14 ATS this season.

Cleveland covers if they go for broke and play smart. Utilize running back Jerome Harrison with Jamal Lewis in the backfield to keep the Eagles defense guessing. Harrison is electrifying runner with a seam and Lewis can lay the lumber to the defensive front. The Cleveland coaches have to set up Dorsey for success with short passes on quick reads, otherwise hello Advil. The Browns secondary gives WAY too much cushion to receivers. The Philly contingent of pass-grabbers is good, certainly not great, play tighter, what do you have to lose as two touchdown underdogs? Cleveland is 7-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.

Philadelphia covers if they remember they are still in the playoff hunt and the Washington and Dallas are too be played no matter what, focus on this contest, the others will follow. Good teams punish bad teams by taking them out of the game. The Eagles have rushed 81 times in the past two games, the most ever under coach Andy Reid in a two-game span, and came out with victories and covers each time. Man up the Browns shaky receivers and organize a sack party in the Cleveland backfield.

This week’s Monday Night system is to play on favorites like the Eagles, off a win against a division rival, when playing football on the first day of a new work week. This system is 30-10 ATS, 75 percent the last decade.

Free NFL Betting Info- Week 15

Many friends of 3Daily Winners including myself got there rear-end handed to them yesterday. It was one of those days you are just thankful it’s December and a long basketball season still awaits. By comparison, 1-2 here for Saturday looks pretty good compared to some of the numbers I saw. Kendall from the LLC returns and is still having a very good NFL season and offers his Best Play for Free. The impossible to figure Denver Broncos are featured in today’s Top Trend. The best NFL System available today is an unlikely team and is 86.1 percent Winner. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season. This sweet sounding system is 31-5 ATS, 86.1 percent over a 25-year period, including 2-0 in 2008. The team to consider is the Seattle Seahawks.

Free Football Trend -2) The Denver Broncos are is 1-14 ATS after gaining six or more yards a play in their previous game over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection did cool off from his amazing 17-2 NFL start and is 38-21, 64.4 percent current for the year. He’s started to heat up again with 5-0 record last week and is on Atlanta this week.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Betting Keys to Five Key NFL Games in Week 15

The regular season is winding down and so are the remaining opportunities to keep winning wagers in the NFL. The NFC South has three of its teams involved in crucial contests, which will be critical to who ends at the top of the division and who makes the playoffs. The New York Jets have been grounded with a pair of defeats and will attempt to take flight again and keep share of the division lead versus AFC East rival Buffalo. Arizona won first division title since Bruce Springsteen released instant classic ‘Born to Run” album and now have to deal with celebrity and how to prepare for postseason and teams on the remainder schedule like Minnesota. Finally, Pittsburgh and Baltimore renew un-pleasantries, with extra ambulances and doctors on call. Bookmaker.com provides the Week 15 numbers.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (Falcons -3, 44.5)

It’s inconceivable the Tampa Bay defense will be steamrolled a second straight time, even facing Michael Turner. Similar to Carolina, Atlanta prefers to move the chains and try a few deep balls. The Buccaneers defense has to control third downs or it could be another tough road loss. On offense Garcia needs more help from offensive line, to start running game and play-action passing. The Bucs are 11-4-1 ATS in recent battles. Atlanta leads the league in first quarter points with 94. This shows excellent planning and execution and home keeps the crowd in the game. The Falcons defense has to do better job against the run, permitting 123.4 yards a game the last five weeks. Make Tampa Bay one dimensional, which frees up John Abraham to rush Jeff Garcia. If Roddy White catches three long passes, good chance the favorite moves to 16-5-1 ATS in this southern showdown.

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (Jets -7.5, 41)

Brett Favre has to load up on Red Bull or some energy drink, as once again his play is noticeably slipping late in the season. Opposing teams have devised ways to take away deep ball from Jets, with no burners and the secondary has more holes than Dunkin Donuts without a pass rush. When New York had five game winning streak, they scored on first possession, put the right plays together to make that happen again. Buffalo players are wondering why offensive coordinator Turk Schonert has gotten so pass happy, especially with two quarterbacks with limited ability in that persuasion. The Bills work better running the pigskin and blending the pass. Buffalo has covered seven of last 10, the defense will need to win field position battle and force two or more miscues.

Denver at Carolina (Panthers -7.5, 48)

Mike Shanahan’s team has been impossible to figure, however they might bloviate having the opportunity to attack Carolina corners with Jay Cutler tossing the ball, after seeing how open Tampa Bay receivers were down the field. By now the Broncos don’t worry whose running, with turnstile efforts this season. Carolina can be run on. Denver has actually been better against the run with 4-3 setup and safety near the line of scrimmage. If they fail to stop Panthers back, Broncos drop to 1-9 ATS in December after a pair of wins and covers. This is Carolina’s last home game and NFC South teams are 23-2, 18-6-1 ATS at home in 2008. Off the huge win last Monday, a drop in intensity would wipe out potential importance of Giants game next week. John Fox’s squad can control the line of scrimmage on both sides in this matchup and bludgeon Broncos with Steve Smith down the field.

Minnesota at Arizona (Cardinals -3, 47)

Tavaris Jackson will get the call for the Vikes who want him to play like he did last week in relief of Frerotte. If Arizona could, they would wear Detroit helmets, as Adrian Peterson has five fumbles against the Lions this season. Peterson knows he has to secure the ball better, with Cardinals swooping in to swipe the ball away. The Vikings run of the mill secondary will need Jared Allen and others to rattle Warner. The Cardinals will want to improve certain areas before playoffs (does that sound odd), while keeping wins coming. Kurt Warner has eight turnovers in last four games, not acceptable. The running game has to rise to well below average instead of 32nd. A hundred yard effort against Minny would be big confidence boost. Play like a division champion at home against a visitor that is 2-6 ATS against teams with winning home records.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Ravens -2.5, 34)

Pittsburgh is well renowned for playing with intensity, however this stage will have Baltimore stoked. The Steelers must match the Ravens and stop them at the point of attack when running the ball. Flacco was often confused last week, with Dick LeBeau calling the defense he’ll do whatever he can to the rookie to keep in same state of mind. Baltimore has to consistently win first and second down, Keeping Joe Flacco in manageable situations and Ben Roethlisberger in third and long. Baltimore will take stupid penalties when they are too juiced up, they must maintain poise and not give away free yards to Steelers. The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in home games after three or more consecutive wins.