Over the last several years I have tracked what are so-called “wise guys” plays. What do I mean by that? Bettors who are movers and shakers are the most feared people by any oddsmakers. They are usually the first to attack lines with veracity and alter perceptions early in the week. I’ll be the first to tell you they are not always right and our numbers have become somewhat more muddled as more people want to pretend they are as smart as those that have and do this for a living for an extended period of time.
South Carolina -11.5 to -14 Win
Troy -4.5 to -6.5 Win
Michigan -5.5 to -3
Mississippi -11.5 to -7.5
Oklahoma State -5 to -7
Wyoming -9 to -11
Florida -28 to -34.5
USC -17 to -19
Auburn -28.5 to -26
So. Miss. -13.5 to -10.5
Clemson -7 to -4.5
Kansas -41 to -35.5
I also follow the totals yet will not show them, since these lines have been picked apart far too long. I’ll report them, next week. I will also do this for the NFL. Enjoy.
College Football Free Plays for Saturday
A 2-1 day sets the table for the opening of college football weekend. We have a unique System play from StatFox, which has been 36-11 in past. Our guy from the LCC has slam-dunked the books, hitting an incredible dozen straight winners and has another ready to fire today in college football. Our Top Trends looks at road favorite with poor history. Good Luck.
Free Football System -1) PLAY AGAINST home teams like Virginia, who were poor passing defensive from last season, allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse, in a non-conference game between two teams from FBS conferences. This system is 36-11, 76.6 percent.
Free Football Trend -2) Tulsa is breaking in a new quarterback and is two touchdown road favorite. The Golden Hurricane is 2-10-1 ATS in road openers the last 13 years.
Free Football Selection -3) A professional bettor from the Left Coast Connection who demands his privacy is on 12-0 run in all sports. Yesterday he gave us Temple, which won handily and was also on Rice. Today he’s riding the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points.
Free Football System -1) PLAY AGAINST home teams like Virginia, who were poor passing defensive from last season, allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse, in a non-conference game between two teams from FBS conferences. This system is 36-11, 76.6 percent.
Free Football Trend -2) Tulsa is breaking in a new quarterback and is two touchdown road favorite. The Golden Hurricane is 2-10-1 ATS in road openers the last 13 years.
Free Football Selection -3) A professional bettor from the Left Coast Connection who demands his privacy is on 12-0 run in all sports. Yesterday he gave us Temple, which won handily and was also on Rice. Today he’s riding the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points.
Friday August 29, Free Plays from 3Daily Winners
Quiet, we have a professional bettor on a sizzling streak; see his Top Play of the Day below. Our System play was poised for 2-0 day, however the Cleveland Browns had three separate chances to put the Bears away and cover and failed each time. They deserve to be 0-4. It’s back to baseball for today’s best System, which is Totals play that is nailing winners 85 percent of the time. The first place Tampa Rays are in terrific MLB Trend. Good Luck.
Free Baseball System -1) PLAY OVER on road teams like Chicago White Sox, when the total is 9 to 9.5, with a hot starting pitcher like Javier Vazquez, with WHIP of 0.800 or less over his last three starts and the team has an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 10 games. This system is sick 34-6, 85 percent since 2004, with average score being 12 total runs.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 22-1 as a money line favorite of -150 to -200.
Free Football Selection -3) A professional bettor from the Left Coast Connection who prefers his privacy is on 10-0 run in all sports with conservative style. Yesterday he gave us the Cubs and played Vanderbilt, tonight he’s playing Temple -7.
Free Baseball System -1) PLAY OVER on road teams like Chicago White Sox, when the total is 9 to 9.5, with a hot starting pitcher like Javier Vazquez, with WHIP of 0.800 or less over his last three starts and the team has an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 10 games. This system is sick 34-6, 85 percent since 2004, with average score being 12 total runs.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 22-1 as a money line favorite of -150 to -200.
Free Football Selection -3) A professional bettor from the Left Coast Connection who prefers his privacy is on 10-0 run in all sports with conservative style. Yesterday he gave us the Cubs and played Vanderbilt, tonight he’s playing Temple -7.
Strong Points for Betting College Football Early
Most everybody wagering on college football has done a fair amount of studying college football in preparation for the beginning of the season. Yet until any of us can see teams play or study boxscores, a certain amount of uncertainty still is in the air. College coaches believe they have prepared their teams well, yet unlike the NFL, you don’t get to hit against another team in a relatively competitive situation. This is a cause for consternation for coaches and bettors alike wondering what is best method to approach beginning of college football betting season.Two simple elements to look for are returning offensive and defensive linemen, plus quarterbacks. A team loaded with experience up front has been through spring and summer practices and knows what the expectations of the coaches are and what it will take to win in their respective conferences. Teams that return four or five offensive linemen have the continuity aspect down cold and barring coaching changes, just have to go out and execute game plan. Defensively, a veteran cast up front can cover up deficiencies in other areas for the short term.
Every year, we hear about a team being better than expected in November, having upperclassmen leadership on the offensive line with experience. Coincidently, a team may have all key skill position players back, yet struggles, as newcomers on either side of the pigskin were neither good enough nor cohesive for the team to meet expectations, causing bettors to squander money.
An experienced signal caller can be a huge plus, especially for an underdog team. If he has enough weapons around him, he places his team in position to pull upset or at least cover the backdoor late in a game, if he has ability to throw the ball well.
We contacted Ed from RightAngleSports to share his thoughts about this topic. Ed is one of the most respected handicappers in college sports and he provided these insights. “One area I look at is teams with new coaches. Some people believe these coaches might have edge since the opponent doesn’t know what’s coming. Though I haven’t completed all my research, teams with new head coach, against lined opponent, are 14-29 against the spread since 2003 in opening games. I like to play against these teams especially if they are changing offensive systems. This can be especially true if a new quarterback is taking over.”
Ed also had opinion on the Totals of these early encounters. “A lot of the totals are not adjusted enough when a coach brings in new system. If a coach brings in a new system (offense) that is pass-oriented, which is different than the year before, oddsmakers will be slow to adjust until they see what happens, wanting to be cautious before making adjustments. They will move the number to a degree, just not a great deal.”
“As a general philosophy, if you like an underdog early in the season, consider the money line as a value play, with better payouts if they pull the upset, which happens every year.”
If you like to follow trends, don’t get caught up leaning on them, since many non-conference teams don’t play one another often enough for these angles to matter, unless they are traditional rivalries like Notre Dame and Michigan. It’s always tempting to add validity to team this 11-1 ATS against an opponent, the problem here could be they have played those dozen games over 40-year period, rendering trend useless.
Steve Makinen from StatFox had this to offer,” Be sure to utilize the returning starter information but don't assume that a wealth of experience returning or lack thereof automatically means a lot. For instance, a team that won two games a year ago might not be better off with a lot of starting players back. Meanwhile, a program on the rise or one that has been solid for a number of years will probably maintain its success even if it isn't returning a lot of core players. Be careful when making these assumptions. Many pointspreads are predicated upon this information and can often be misleading.”
Follow these tips to help you start on the winning side for this big opening weekend of five days of college football betting.
Free Sports Selections for Thursday
A fine string of winners on System plays was broken, contributing to 1-2 day. Today we tackle the NFL with a hard to fathom preseason system. The Top Trend was a winner yesterday and will go for two straight, peeking in on Atlanta and Florida contest. A silent member from the LCC is on unbeaten streak and sends in his Top Play for Thursday. Good Luck.
Free Football System -1) PLAY AGAINST road teams in the NFL after three or more consecutive losses against the spread, in August games. This week that would be Chicago and New England. This system is disquieting 24-1, spanning a period from when the Buffalo Bills became the first team to lose three straight Super Bowls.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Atlanta is 4-15 against the money line in home games with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games.
Free Baseball Selection -3) A professional bettor from the Left Coast Connection who prefers his privacy is on 8-0 run in all sports with conservative style. Tonight he’s riding the Chicago Cubs on the money line.
Free Football System -1) PLAY AGAINST road teams in the NFL after three or more consecutive losses against the spread, in August games. This week that would be Chicago and New England. This system is disquieting 24-1, spanning a period from when the Buffalo Bills became the first team to lose three straight Super Bowls.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Atlanta is 4-15 against the money line in home games with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games.
Free Baseball Selection -3) A professional bettor from the Left Coast Connection who prefers his privacy is on 8-0 run in all sports with conservative style. Tonight he’s riding the Chicago Cubs on the money line.
College Football – Paying Attention Matters
I said yesterday I would have my biggest surprise and disappointing teams. I wasn’t thinking clearly that I could do this since yesterday was my wedding anniversary, so that was a bad idea to think I could do this.Surprises
Mississippi – Most folks have Ole Miss pegged for last in the SEC West, not me. I have their top end talent better than either Mississippi State or Arkansas. Tackles Michael Oher and Jerry Jones are NFL quality. Keys games at home are South Carolina and in-state rival MSU. If they win at Arkansas, no reason they shouldn’t go to minor bowl. Texas transfer QB Jevon Snead must be above average.
Iowa-Talent-wise the Hawkeyes still aren’t great, however are improving. The reason why I see 8-4 season ahead is schedule that sets up nicely. Iowa has to take Iowa State seriously and bury them. No Ohio State or Michigan certainly makes goals more attainable. One upset against Wisconsin or Penn State at Iowa City would be significant and other than Illinois, they should have a chance to win other Big Ten road games.
TCU- I don’t know if this a big surprise necessarily, but I’m crowning TCU Mountain West Conference champs. They are in the mix with BYU and Utah, just not as highly thought of. After two 11-win seasons, injuries and inconsistent play doomed the Horned Frogs last year. With 16 starters and a rededication by all members of the squad, this alphabet school is ready to jump. I’ve got them at 10-2, with only losses at Oklahoma and at Utah.
Others in the mix- Northern Illinois –Wyoming-Louisville
Disappointments
West Virginia- Pat White is one of the most electrifying athletes playing quarterback in the country. This year with Bill Stewart as the coach, differences will appear, though West Virginia will still be a good team. Defensive replacements are needed and November features games at UConn, Louisville and Pittsburgh before hosting South Florida. We’ve seen what happens when White is hurt, just not sold the ‘Teers get in done in 2008.
Illinois- Illini backers were thrilled by going to Pasadena earlier this year, even if they were out-classed by USC. Key losses in personnel from real playmakers mean others have to step up, are they ready? Games away from home include Missouri, Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin. On November 15, that team they beat last year, what’s their name, of yea, Ohio State comes to Champaign seeking serious revenge. An 8-4 record is apex, with 7-5 more likely, with improvement coming again next year.
Central Florida-Coach George O’Leary has done a splendid job in turning this sleepy campus dominated by Mickey into C-USA contender annually. O’Leary is a tough Irishman who likes to have his teams play top notch non-conference teams to prepare for conference play. The losses of quarterback Kyle Israel and RB Kevin Smith will slowdown offense. The defense is still among the best in the league, but too many rough roads tilts spells 6-6 campaign.
Others in the mix- Kansas – Connecticut –Kansas State
Baseball Betting Answers for Hump Day
Kendall from the LCC is smokin’ on personal plays and offers a familiar Free Play that looks like a winner. The System plays are hotter than an Arizona car handle sitting outside in August and goes right back to yesterday’s combatants with a different twist. The Top Trend will look like something you have seen before, but has it ever delivered. Good Luck.
Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like the Angels, with a money line of -175 to -250, with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after a win by four runs or more. This system is fascinating 22-3, 88 percent the last three seasons.
Free Baseball Trend -2) We’ve used this before, yet it worth bringing out again. Roy Oswalt is 20-1 against Cincinnati lifetime and for good measure, he and Astros teammates are 9-1 the last two August’s.
Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall is nobody’s fool, he’s on the White Sox again tonight for Free selection. He’s 11-3 on the bases of late, gathering +9.15 units of profit.
Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like the Angels, with a money line of -175 to -250, with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after a win by four runs or more. This system is fascinating 22-3, 88 percent the last three seasons.
Free Baseball Trend -2) We’ve used this before, yet it worth bringing out again. Roy Oswalt is 20-1 against Cincinnati lifetime and for good measure, he and Astros teammates are 9-1 the last two August’s.
Free Baseball Selection -3) Kendall is nobody’s fool, he’s on the White Sox again tonight for Free selection. He’s 11-3 on the bases of late, gathering +9.15 units of profit.
Baseball Betting Answers for Tuesday
We know our MLB baseball systems have meant risking heavy chalk, but hard to argue when the odds are so stacked in your favor and they win. Does a 43-4 System grab your attention? Top Trend shows what Arizona has done on the road when a certain pitcher is on the mound. Professional bettor Kendall has been doing a nice job and has Free Play ready to win. Good Luck.
Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites like the Angels with a money line of -175 to -250, who are below average hitting team (BA .265 or less), against a good starting pitcher like Greg Smith (6-12, 3.75 ERA) with ERA below 4.20 in the AL, in the second half of the season. This system is jaw-dropping 43-4, 91.5 percent.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Brandon Webb and Arizona is 12-2 when he pitches in road division games.
Free Baseball Selection -3) The Chicago White Sox have caught the attention of Kendall from the Left Coast Connection in MLB action tonight. He’s 9-3 on the bases of late, gathering +7.15 units of profit.
Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites like the Angels with a money line of -175 to -250, who are below average hitting team (BA .265 or less), against a good starting pitcher like Greg Smith (6-12, 3.75 ERA) with ERA below 4.20 in the AL, in the second half of the season. This system is jaw-dropping 43-4, 91.5 percent.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Brandon Webb and Arizona is 12-2 when he pitches in road division games.
Free Baseball Selection -3) The Chicago White Sox have caught the attention of Kendall from the Left Coast Connection in MLB action tonight. He’s 9-3 on the bases of late, gathering +7.15 units of profit.
College Football Quick Primer
With college football ready to fire this week, thought I’d share how I see upcoming season playing out. Actually before I start, I’d like to inform everyone I was going to start a paid newsletter for college and pro football, unfortunately everything didn’t come together for a variety of reasons. This should be good news to all of you who visit this blog, since many of the elements I was going to talk about will instead be written about right here at 3Daily Winners.For example, I have special information I’ve gathered for years and written about from time to time on other websites, this information will now be seen and talked about here.
I’ll share my game insights, from watching everything all weekend and discuss what I see or hear. I’ll provide key numbers about players and teams and tell the truth, not sugar coat what I see or find.
I’ll have various types of other information, that honestly I haven’t seen thought about yet, just will react to the marketplace. My goal is to make this a fun and entertaining place to stop everyday for people that want quality football information. Enough talking let’s get started.
Over the last six weeks, I’ve studied the returning players and losses from the various college football teams. Looked at the schedules inside-out and taken into consideration many other factors too numerous to mention.
Here is my Top 25.
1) Ohio State 2) Oklahoma 3) Florida 4) Georgia 5) USC
6) Missouri 7) Clemson 8) LSU 9) Texas Tech 10) Auburn
11) Wisconsin 12) West Virginia 13) So. Florida 14) Virg. Tech 15) Texas
16) Tennessee 17) Oregon 18) Penn State 19) Kansas 20) Wake Forest
21) Flor. State 22) Ariz. State 23) Alabama 24) Illinois 25) Iowa
Do I think this is the exact order of the best 25 teams in the country, No. Based on factors like scheduling and motivational situations, along with certain coaches in need of big years, this is what I see today.
Next is list of conference champions. By now you either have or should have picked up preseason magazine. I’m not going to compete with those, thus I’ll keep it brief.
ACC – Clemson
Finally Clemson meets expectations in what is a pretty mediocre league.
Big 12- Oklahoma
Big 12- Oklahoma
Second best conference this season, thanks to 11 returning quarterbacks. Highly competitive year, with underdogs covering more often than expected with so many good signal callers.
SEC- Florida
Georgia has better talent, however better schedule for Gators and more balance than last year.
Big Ten- Ohio State
SEC- Florida
Georgia has better talent, however better schedule for Gators and more balance than last year.
Big Ten- Ohio State
Everyone is playing for second place.
Pac-10 – USC
Pac-10 – USC
Down year for this league, even USC isn’t USC to start the season.
Mountain West- TCU
Mountain West- TCU
Offense comes back for the Horned Frogs, with always steady defense in place.
WAC- Fresno State
My least secure pick, as Bulldogs are too often preoccupied with non-conference games, instead of focusing on winning league. Did you know Fresno State turned down 10,000 Benjamin Franklin’s to play Wisconsin at Lambeau Field, to keep home game with Badgers?
MAC- Central Michigan
They go for third straight title, but watch out for Ball State.
C-USA - Tulsa
They battle East Carolina for conference title.
Sun Belt – Florida Atlantic
In my study of outstanding players within conferences, FAU has the most players back within any league in the country.
Tomorrow, surprise and disappointing teams. Please share your thoughts in comment sections.
WAC- Fresno State
My least secure pick, as Bulldogs are too often preoccupied with non-conference games, instead of focusing on winning league. Did you know Fresno State turned down 10,000 Benjamin Franklin’s to play Wisconsin at Lambeau Field, to keep home game with Badgers?
MAC- Central Michigan
They go for third straight title, but watch out for Ball State.
C-USA - Tulsa
They battle East Carolina for conference title.
Sun Belt – Florida Atlantic
In my study of outstanding players within conferences, FAU has the most players back within any league in the country.
Tomorrow, surprise and disappointing teams. Please share your thoughts in comment sections.
Free Baseball Plays from 3DW
The Toronto bullpen was surprisingly ineffective and cost us 3-0 day in extra innings in losing game and series to Boston. The baseball Systems are cleaning up with recent hot streak and we have an 80 percent system involving Cubs. Another Prefect Trend returns and Slick Rick from the LCC has a West Coast Free play. Good Luck.
Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites with money line of -150 or more like the Cubs, with a starting pitcher like Ted Lilly (12-7, 4.25) whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season-NL, with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (NL). This to be reckoned with system is 48-12, 80 percent, since 2004.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Seattle is 0-11against the money line revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs this season, losing by an average of 2.8 RPG.
Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick has been just that with 10-2 run in all sports and is on the Giants to roast the Rockies.
Free Baseball System -1) PLAY ON all favorites with money line of -150 or more like the Cubs, with a starting pitcher like Ted Lilly (12-7, 4.25) whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season-NL, with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (NL). This to be reckoned with system is 48-12, 80 percent, since 2004.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Seattle is 0-11against the money line revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs this season, losing by an average of 2.8 RPG.
Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick has been just that with 10-2 run in all sports and is on the Giants to roast the Rockies.
Free Plays from 3Daily Winners
An unproductive 1-2-1 day broke our string of three winning days at 3Daily Winners, thus we look to start another streak today. The System plays are back to being on fire and we have a 90 percent one on tap. The always popular perfect Trend returns and Kendall gets one more chance to earn our trust with his Free Top MLB play. Good Luck.
Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Pittsburgh with a money line of +150 or more, with a starter like Paul Maholm (8-7, 3.64, 1.232 WHIP) whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL, going against a hot starting pitcher like C.C. Sabathia (3-0, 1.08 ERA L3 outings) with ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts. While we could never suggest playing a -300 or higher game, hard to argue with results of this system being 18-2 the last three seasons.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Kevin Correia of San Francisco is perfect 10-0 when he and teammates are in the role of favorite in his career.
Free Baseball Selection -3) We are going to cut Kendall some slack as his main play was a push with the Jets yesterday and he is taking Toronto as his best play today.
Free Baseball System -1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Pittsburgh with a money line of +150 or more, with a starter like Paul Maholm (8-7, 3.64, 1.232 WHIP) whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL, going against a hot starting pitcher like C.C. Sabathia (3-0, 1.08 ERA L3 outings) with ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts. While we could never suggest playing a -300 or higher game, hard to argue with results of this system being 18-2 the last three seasons.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Kevin Correia of San Francisco is perfect 10-0 when he and teammates are in the role of favorite in his career.
Free Baseball Selection -3) We are going to cut Kendall some slack as his main play was a push with the Jets yesterday and he is taking Toronto as his best play today.
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