Super Saturday with Big Announcement

Picked off two out of three winners on Friday and start moving towards football. Congrats to Mark on huge winner on the S.F. Giants last night. He wouldn’t tell me how much he won, but a couple of his friends said it was LARGE. Tonight his best play is in the NFL.Have an exceptional Top Trend in the NFL and Best System is on the base paths at 83.7 percent. Good Luck

Wipe that frown off your face – I was slightly disappointed in myself for betting New England -3.5, because half point losses are just plain dumb even in the preseason. I don’t bet much on these games, thus it is good to get the first lesson out of the way early.

Announcement- On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Starting next Saturday and on Sunday once the NFL begins, I will have a running analysis of all the college football action on those days. I’ll have all my TV’s lined up, working the remote as well as the computer. Sign up at Twitter and let’s have some fun and all learn something.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing 10 runs or more. A review of the numbers suggests playing against Oakland, with a sweet system this 103-20, including 13-2 in 2009.

Free Football Trend -2) The Tennessee Titans are 11-1 ATS if opponent is off a win and cover.

Free Football Pick -3) Mark of the LCC flushed with cash, bet Atlanta at -2.5 to cover on televised tilt.

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StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet – Yours truly a writer.

Saturday Preseason Football

It is a large slate of action in Week 3 of the NFL preseason and every game has meaning to the players trying to make the team and coaches trying to be ready for the regular season. Here is a look at each game with key wagering information for each contest.

San Diego at Atlanta

This is will be the CBS game starting at 8:00 Eastern, with running back Michael Turner going against his old teammates from San Diego. Atlanta would be 2-0 if the backups had not surrendered lead late at Detroit in 27-26 loss. Quarterback Matt Ryan looks like we will avoid a sophomore slump, playing extremely well in limited action. The Falcons are 2.5-point favorites at Bookmaker.com with total of 42 and are 21-8 ATS after playing their last game on the road.

It’s been a different preseason for San Diego, as LaDainian Tomlinson has actually done something besides stand on the sidelines like in years past. L.T. isn’t being overworked mind you with eight carries and a couple of pass catches, however that is way more activity than he’s seen in recent years as he looks to rebound from injury. Even with last week’s 17-6 upset win in Arizona as 1.5-point underdogs, coach Norn Turner teams are 3-6 ATS as dogs or Pick.

Indianapolis at Detroit

Indianapolis may have rotten reputation as preseason team (6-18, 9-14-1 ATS), but Detroit is even less thought of as a team of any kind. In this NFL Network matinee, the Lions have gone from 1.5-point favorites to three-point underdogs. This is the dress rehearsal week for the regular season and the Colts are 6-1 ATS and Detroit is 2-10 SU and ATS in the next to last exhibition game.

New Orleans at Oakland

Another afternoon affair means another flip of the favorites, this time on the Left Coast. The always controversial Oakland Raiders have covered a pair of contests in sporting .500 record, however the wagering public isn’t sold this team that opened as Pick and fell to +2.5-points, is equipped to handle New Orleans who has won both contests by average of 17 points. The Saints are 23-10 ATS in August road games and 16-5 ATS in the visiting uniforms with six or less days rest.

Tennessee at Cleveland

Coach Eric Mangini will take one more look at Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn and decide who will be his starting quarterback in Cleveland, at least for game one. The Browns blew-up Detroit last week 27-10, but are 1-9 ATS after a win by 10 or more points. Tennessee played bored last Friday at Dallas, having played one more preseason contest thanks to Hall of Fame encounter. The Titans are two-point dogs, nonetheless are 11-1 ATS vs. opponent off a win and cover.

Buffalo at Pittsburgh

Buffalo is 1-2 and 1-1-1 ATS and this week have to solve turnover issues that are plaguing them, with 11 miscues already. Trent Edwards could use Terrell Owens, who is expected to miss another game with sprained toe. The Bills are six-point underdogs with total of 36, yet if they can score 15-21 points, they are 12-2 ATS on the road. Ben Roethlisberger was held out last week, but is presumed ready for action. Pittsburgh is 10-15 ATS in third preseason game and is 1-3 and 0-4 ATS since 2005.

Baltimore at Carolina

Carolina has yet to scratch in the win column in 2009, mostly due to run defense surrendering 140 yards a game. They’ll try and shore this area up this week, but it will be without linebacker Jon Beason, who strained his MCL, and who will be held out at least until regular season starts. Baltimore has been efficient 2-0 (1-1 ATS), looking like playoff contender again. Watch the total here (36) with Panthers on 6-0 OVER run and Ravens 14-4 UNDER off one or more straight Overs.

San Francisco at Dallas

For football fans, this encounter is a quick trip down memory lane of classic matchups these teams played in the 1980’s and 90’s. This won’t be the case today, with Dallas a seven-point favorite and total of 38. The 49ers named Shaun Hill as starting quarterback, but he and former No.1 pick Alex Smith might both be on the sidelines with injury. Say hello to Damon Huard and rookie Nate Davis for San Francisco who has two wins without a cover. The Cowboys played with purpose last in routing Tennessee 30-10, however is dastardly 1-9 ATS at home if opponent is off two SU wins.

Seattle at Kansas City

These former AFC division partners will meet again in Kansas City. Matt Hasselbeck looks all the way back from injured back of a year ago. Hasselbeck has the fastball back in repertoire and better accuracy on sideline routes. The Seahawks may be catching 2.5-points, however are 8-0 ATS in last eight August tries and 9-1 ATS since 2007. Kansas City has played like a team installing new offensive and defensive systems and is just the opposite of Seattle, posting 1-9 ATS mark the last three years.

N.Y. Jets vs N.Y. Giants

The Giants are the designated home team, which means they get the bigger locker room in bragging rights matchup. The G-Men have been hit hard on the defensive side of the ball with injuries, yet most Giants fans are more concerned if Eli Manning will mesh with wide receiver group quickly. The New York football Giants are 9-21 ATS in the last two weeks of the preseason. Rookie Mark Sanchez has enjoyed the bright lights of New York thus far, but now productivity will be his savior as Jets QB. Sanchez appeared a trifle overwhelmed by Baltimore’s defense last week and has to remain composed. Gang Green is 13-3-1 ATS in this Big Apple battle, on the receiving end of three points.

Pick up the pieces Friday

We got whacked but good with 0-3 day on Thursday. We hope to make a much better showing today. Mark of the Left Coast Connection is stepping it up on Free Play, continue reading. The Top Trend in unbeaten in the NFL tonight and the Best System is only qualifying play over 80 percent and it makes me nervous with John Smoltz pitching. Good Luck

Don’t get mad, get even - Javier Vazquez got a win on Thursday, evening his career won-lost record at 138-138. It's the 27th time in his career that Vazquez's won-lost record has stood at .500. The only other active pitcher whose career record has been at .500 as often as Vazquez, is Doug Davis. (31 times) Thanks Elias

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like Washington with average NL offensive, scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against a mediocre starting pitcher (ERA of 5.70 or higher), with an unproductive bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season. This system is 4-0 this season to take it past the 80 percent threshold at 36-8.

Free Football Trend -2) The Arizona Cardinals are 9-0 ATS if off a SU loss and opponent is off double digit win.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Mark of the LCC is making his largest wager of the baseball season on the San Francisco Giants. (Good Luck Mark)

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Arizona favored to play there best football

The Arizona Cardinals are the defending NFC champions and are winless in the preseason, no big deal right? None of the top three quarterbacks have generated an offensive touchdown, no big deal right? Kurt Warner had off-season hip surgery and hasn’t looked like the quarterback that took his team to Super Bowl last season, no big deal right? This needs to be the week the Cardinals put it all together, to erase any doubts about them, especially playing at home. Also, we’ll preview the Patriots at the Redskins.

Green Bay at Arizona

The Cardinals are 3.5-point favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com and want this to start building confidence for the upcoming season. Arizona ALMOST won the Super Bowl, yet the fact remains they were 9-7 in the regular season in 2008 and were not considered elite team when the playoffs began. In this contest, Warner and the first team offense want to put up points and will face Green Bay’s new 3-4 defensive scheme, which features a great deal of blitzing. The could mean check downs to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, along with some long passes facing one on one coverage.

The Packers have rebuilt their offensive line and though talk out of Green Bay is coach Mike McCarthy is satisfied with progress, the Cards generated four sacks last week. Aaron Rodgers and the first team offense have been crisp. Last week the Pack built 24-0 halftime lead over Buffalo before cruising to 31-21 triumph. However, this is first road game which will alter dynamics. Arizona has thrived in this situation with 6-0 ATS record in Week 3 and is 9-0 against the number if off a SU loss and opponent is off double digit win.

Tim Hightower has been outstanding for Arizona, nevertheless, they didn’t pay top draft pick Beanie Wells to sit on the sidelines and be injured. Watch the total in this contest, which presently is 41 points. The Redbirds are 10-2 OVER after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games and Green Bay is 8-1 OVER when playing with six or less days rest.

New England at Washington

Washington entertained the idea of chasing Jay Cutler who wanted out of Denver and gave serious consideration to drafting Mark Sanchez. Neither of those things happened and Redskins fans are starting to wonder if the Washington front office made an error in not following thru. Jason Campbell was believed to a work in progress when he was drafted and it well documented his head has been filled with new offensive schemes annually, dating back to Auburn days. Campbell is no longer a kid quarterback (27 years old) and he is 5 for 20 passing in the preseason, for a whopping 58 yards. This has to be the time he elevates his game. The Redskins are 3.5-point home underdogs, with total of 37.5 and they are 2-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

If one reads into comments made by coaches, New England could be edged this week. Coach Bill Belichick was unusually critical of his team’s 7-6 loss at home to Cincinnati as a touchdown favorite. Belichick said “We just generally had too many mistakes, too many errors in every phase of the game with every unit pretty much in every area.” It has been a different atmosphere in Patriots training camp, more hitting, longer practices and more double sessions. New England is 17-8 ATS in third game of the preseason, including 5-1 ATS since 2003. Tom Brady and his teammates might be in the mood to set an example in this contest.

MLB Series Wagering- Rockies at Giants

It may not be “How the West was won” but for San Francisco, it’s a critical weekend to get back into the wild card race in the National League. With 34 games remaining, the Giants trail Colorado by three games for the last playoff spot in the senior circuit. Last week San Francisco (69-59, +10 units) lost three of four near the foothills of the Rocky Mountains and cannot afford a similar fate or postseason dreams could be washed out to sea by the Bay.

Manager Bruce Boche has the pitching aligned exactly how he wants it to give San Francisco its best chance of winning. In order, its Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Matt Cain, this at least sounds daunting for Colorado. Lincecum (12-4, 2.43 ERA) lost last Sunday at Colorado 4-2, giving up room service pitch for home run and walking a season high five batters. Last year’s Cy Young winner is 4-0 with a sterling 1.36 ERA at AT&T Park in his last six outings and the Giants are 8-3 when the right-hander is pitching on four days rest.

Colorado (72-56, +12.6 units) has to quickly put behind the disappointment of losing series to front-running Los Angeles and refocus on the task at hand. The Rockies are 17-9 in August road games the last couple of years and have what they believe is the right pitcher to combat Lincecum in Ubaldo Jimenez (12-9, 3.36). The righthander has pitched a minimum of eight innings in four of his last five starts, not allowing more than two runs and winning each game. He relishes the challenge of facing “The Freak”.

“I love challenges," Jimenez said. "I'm positive when I have a challenge. I can't wait to be in that position. Hopefully, everything's going to be OK this time." Jimenez has made nine straight starts allowing three or fewer runs and Colorado is 21-6 on the road against a right-hand starter.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Giants as -125 money line favorites, with the total Un6.5. San Fran is 8-2 when Lincecum pitches as a favorite and has won 41 of last 58 in favorite role. The Rockies have won just one of last seven as an underdog and are 7-20 when Jimenez is pitching as road dog and 1-5 if the opponent has winning record.

Game 1 Edge: San Francisco

San Francisco knew coming into the season, they would have to build this team around pitching and defense and the front office has been prophetic. The Giants are 14th in the National League scoring runs, a paltry four runs per game. Nobody knows this better than Barry Zito (8-11, 4.09). Though Zito has been criticized and dismissed as a non-talent more than Heidi Montag, this season Zito has looked like the pitcher the Giants spent 126 million for several seasons ago. In his last eight starts, the lefty has ERA of 2.08, yet is just 3-2, as he has received the poorest run support in the NL at just under three runs a game. Zito made a decision to stop worrying about avoiding bats and instead has gone after hitters, which has paid dividends for a pitcher needing confidence. The Giants have won five of his last six starts at home.

Colorado counters with Jason Marquis (14-8, 3.47), making this a rematch from Monday, when neither starting pitcher figured in decision. Marquis has ended being a key acquisition for the Rockies, pitching well when they were still trying to settle in and rock solid once they turned the corner playing outstanding baseball. Colorado comes into the series 52-25 in last 77 outings and they are 8-2 when Marquis faces a club with winning record.

Game 2 Edge: Colorado

As if things aren’t hard enough for San Fran, the status of their top two hitters Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina is day to day for this series. The Giants could certainly use them for the final game of the series, which is afternoon affair. San Francisco is 24-19 playing matinees and will have Matt Cain (12-4, 2.39) taking the ball. It easy to be judgmental and see Cain hasn’t won a game since July 24, yet he has 2.72 ERA in that span and allowed 36 hits in 46 1/3 innings, with 4-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Giants are raising cane on opponents at home when Cain pitches with 11-2 record and they are 13-4 when favored. The Rockies will use Jason Hammel (8-7, 4.43) who pitches dramatically better away from Coors Field. Hammel is 6-4 on the road with 2.88 ERA, thought the team is .500 (6-6). Colorado is 25-18 in day ball and un-Rockies like 36-30 coming into the series on the road.

Game 3 Edge: San Francisco

Had my four series winning streak snapped last week, however feel good about this week’s selection. As good as Colorado has been since Jim Tracy took over as skipper, San Francisco could have just as easily won three of four last week in Denver. Sporting a National League-best 41-21 home record, the Giants are the play this weekend to close the gap in wild card race.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Colorado +120, San Francisco -150

3DW Pick: San Francisco

2009 Record – 7-10

Trying to build on 3-0 conquest

If you look at the first post of the day, that was 1,000th made since I started this blog, kinda cool. What was also cool was 3-0 Wednesday and maybe we can start a hot streak. In baseball, found a system that rocks at 86.4 percent. The Top Trend is in the matchup of the teams from the Keystone State and the Free Pick has arrived. Good Luck

What I learned today – Vladimir Guerrero recorded his 1000th hit for the Angels Wednesday, making him the second player in major-league history to have at least 1000 hits for a team in both the American and National Leagues. Dave Winfield was the first to do that, with the Padres and Yankees. The only other active player with 1000 or more hits for two teams is Manny Ramirez (Indians and Red Sox).Thanks Elias

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Houston with a money line of +175 to +250, with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a blistering hot starting pitcher who has WHIP 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This money-making system is 70-11, 86.4 percent since 2005.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Pittsburgh Pirates are 3-19 as a home underdog of +150 to +200 over the last three seasons, losing by massive 3.7 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Slick Rick is backing the Angels with Ervin Santana who has dominated the A's.

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Week 3 is sneak peek into the start of NFL regular season

This is the week most NFL coaches enjoy in August, having preparation that is most similar to what the regular season will be like in a couple of weeks. For the most part, the starters will play in the third quarter and the intensity level is relatively high for football played this month, with jobs on the line at various positions and teams wanting to make a good showing. Week 3 starts with three contests, all with their own unique flavor.

Jacksonville at Philadelphia

If this was a TMZ.com piece, Michael Vick would be splashed all over and quotes and pictures would be seen. However this isn’t TMZ, this is about sports betting and what could lie ahead for a pair of teams without a preseason victory. Teams that don’t win a game in the preseason have averaged 7.3 wins a year once the real season begins since 1997, which is well below the expectations for both these clubs. Even worse, only one of the last 11 teams that were 0 for the preseason has made the playoffs. (Thanks Mr. East of Playbook.com for that info)


Jacksonville has lost there two games by a total four points and could just as easily be 2-0, be it for a bit more offensive execution. Quarterback David Garrard has looked sharp and receiver Troy Williamson has been exceptional opposite of Torry Holt as the Jaguars new receivers’ core. The Jacksonville running game needs to find another gear after producing 127 yards the first two games. The Jags head to Philly as 7.5-point underdogs according to Bookmaker.com and they are 12-2 ATS in road games in the last two weeks of the preseason.

Coach Andy Reid stated Donovan McNabb will play the first three quarters and Kevin Kolb the final 15 minutes, but Mr. Vick will see time with the starters. The impression one has is Reid wants to start having upcoming regular season opponents start game-planning for the Eagles newest weapon. Of greatest concern to Philadelphia is the projected offense line starters have not played one down together and they are unlikely too this week either. Philly is only 2-7 ATS in third game of preseason.

Miami at Tampa Bay

This Fox nationally televised contest will have a Florida flavor with the Dolphins at Tampa Bay. Miami has looked impressive in first starts and though Chad Pennington is the clear starter at quarterback, back-up Chad Henne is looking like the future of Fins football. He’s been confident and a real leader and his passes have more zip on them, something not seen since the guy doing the Nutri-System commercials was wearing a Miami helmet. The Dolphins have run the ball effectively (129.5 yards per game) and the defensive line has contained opponents rushing attack. Curious to see if Tampa Bay goes after Dolphins safeties who are vulnerable to the pass. The Fish are 2.5-point underdogs and are 23-15-2 ATS in this spot.

Tampa Bay has split a pair of contests, winning as underdog last week against Jacksonville and is 7-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. New head coach Raheem Morris has not named a starting quarterback yet, with the front office putting out feelers to find out what Luke McCown or Byron Leftwich could bring back in trade. Both have obvious limitations and top pick Josh Freeman isn’t ready. Indecision is not good and the Bucs are 1-7 ATS after a win by three or less points.

St. Louis at Cincinnati

Whatever appeal this game has is lessened by the fact both starting quarterbacks might not see any action. Carson Palmer has an ankle issue and Marc Bulger a finger problem. That means a heavy dose J.T. O'Sullivan for Cincinnati and St. Louis counters with Kyle Boller.

The Bengals first unit has moved the ball no matter who has played quarterback and is averaging 6.4 yards per play. It has been breakdowns at the wrong times that have stalled drives and left them without any points. Expect this to be an area coach Marvin Lewis wants more production from, for a squad that is 1-7 ATS in Week 3.

The Rams are 2.5-point underdogs and have a lot to shore up before regular season begins. The entire defense has made multiple miscues in understanding new coach Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. He’s been preaching "Get low and stick 'em" tackling, however too many defenders have fallen back to old ways and it will just take time. St. Louis is a sickly 1-9 ATS off a home loss.

Today, review these American League Totals

It’s a lighter card in the junior circuit and it’s as good a time as any to look some different wagering possibilities. Most knowledgeable baseball sports bettors prefer to play totals since they believe they are easier to beat and less risk is involved paying the juice. Here is a look at each American League contest reviewing the best ways to consider on the totals front.

Texas at New York

This will be the only afternoon affair in the AL, as these two playoff contenders wrap up three-game series. They have split the first two games and have played Over on both occasions. The Yankees are 29-29-3 against the oddsmakers total number at home and are 9-1 Over at home vs. an AL starting pitcher like Dustin Nippert (4-2, 3.95, 1.457 WHIP as starter), whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 over the last two seasons. Texas has been a decided Under team on the road with 36-22-2 record and they are 16-2 Under after a loss by four runs or more this season. Bookmaker.com has this contest at Ov9.5 and home plate umpire Jim Reynolds has called 14 of 21 games Over this season.

Cleveland at Baltimore

The Indians travel to Baltimore to open a four-game series and they are 19-7 Over in road games after a win this season. The Tribe is a modest underdog and they are 33-12 Over as a road dog of +100 or higher in 2009, in part thanks to bullpen that has 5.70 ERA in visiting uniforms. The Orioles will face the servings of lefthander Aaron Laffey (7-3, 3.42) and they are 27-17-2 Under vs. port-siders, averaging just four runs per contest. Baltimore is 17-7 Under at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.

Chicago at Boston

The White Sox have proven to be the cure after Boston lost series to the Yankees this past weekend. The Red Sox have won the first three games of the series and go for the sweep tonight. Chicago’s offense has held them back, scoring 3.75 runs per game in losing six of last eight and they are 7-1 Under during that stretch. Boston on the other hand has totaled nine or more hits in eight of last nine encounters and is 7-2 Over. The Red Sox won a 3-2 squeaker last night and are 10-2 Over at Fenway Park after a win by two runs or less this season. The Pale Hose are 14-3 Under having lost four of their last five games this season. The total on this conflict has risen to 10.

Kansas City at Seattle

Kansas City jets into Seattle to play four times with Kyle Davies (4-9, 6.12) the opening game pitcher for the Royals. The Mariners are off a sweep of Oakland and 11-0 Over vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20, with average score totaling 12.6 runs a game. The total is set at Un8.5, with the rub being the Seattle bullpen, who has pitched lights out. The M’s are 22-7 Under with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last five games this season. The Royals only average 3.6 runs per game as visitors they are 23-9 Under vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less a game.

Oakland at Los Angeles

The top Over team in baseball is the Angels at 72-47-6. Los Angeles has the top offense in the big leagues at 5.7 RPG and lacks a quality pitching staff to retire batters consistently. The L.A. bullpen has been an issue from the opening game of the season and the Halos are 12-4 Over after two straight games where the bullpen gave up zero runs this season. Oakland has problems scoring runs. The A’s have tallied more than three runs three times in the last 11 games and average only 4.2 RPG on the road. However, Oakland has shaky starting pitching and the bullpen has shown signs of weakening, particularly on the road and they are 10-3 Over after surrendering five or more runs.

Climbing the Hump

Fell off a trifle with 1-2 day and will try and climb up the hill on hump day. Only one Super System play on tap and it is in the Windy City with 83-19 record. Slick Rick has been slick and offers up MLB parlay as his Free Play. The Top Trend looks at a pitcher who is dominating a division. Good Luck

What I thought today –The “Numbers” article that posted today was actually written yesterday before any games were played. One part I have in there is about the Chicago Cubs and though they are mathematically alive, losing yesterday might have started to unofficially end their season, especially with the Cardinals winning. In my opinion, the Cubs are easily the most disappointing team in baseball for 2009.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Washington with a money line of +150 or more, allowing 4.8 or more runs a game on the season against NL opponent with a smoldering starting pitcher, who has WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. Add them up and this system comes to 83-19, 81.4 percent over the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Josh Johnson and Florida are 17-2 against NL East division opponents over the last two seasons, winning by 2.9 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 8-2 since last Friday and has a two-team parlay on the Cardinals and the Yankees going tonight.

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StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet – Yours truly a writer.

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Wagering on the Numbers Game

In order to win at sports betting, you have to be able to identity situations quickly. Most people assume every oddsmaker knows every aspect of a certain game, which talking with professional sports bettors just isn’t true. Most regular bettors have no idea the wealth of information available to them and this is where we can come in and help also.

It’s nearly impossible to make sound judgments about the NFL Preseason football; however that doesn’t take away from the enjoyment of considering the possibilities. After two weeks, favorites are 23-10 SU and 17-14-2 against the spread. Lines moves on side action of 1.5 or more points towards a particular team are 6-3 ATS.

The oddmakers have been right on the nose breaking down totals, with the OVER 17-16. What is interesting to note is totals that settled at 34.5 points or higher are 13-8 UNDER thus far. That means totals of 34 or fewer points are outstanding 9-3 OVER. Totals moves of two points or more in either direction are putrid 2-8 following the number.

Annually in the preseason, a very solid wager is to Play On teams that have lost by 10 or more points. It doesn’t win all the time, but is 5-1 SU and ATS to start this year. Coaches ride the players hard after such a loss, even in August. Because they have more players in camp, the injury factor is less an issue to key players as compared to the regular season and they do more hitting during intense practices. For week 3 consider - Tennessee, Detroit, Carolina, Houston, Buffalo, Arizona and Denver as all possible plays off a significant loss.

The baseball pennant races are really heating up and this is a good time to think about what teams have to do the rest of the way and are they good wagers the rest of the season?

The Boston Red Sox trail the New York Yankees by six games in the loss column. (I prefer to use this since all teams are scheduled to play 162 games) If the Yankees continue to play about the same pace, they should win 101 games this season. That would mean the Red Sox would have to finish the season 30-8 just to tie their hated rival, which seems unlikely. Boston will be favored in every home game the rest of the year unless maybe a bad pitching matchup against Roy Halladay of Toronto or against the Los Angeles Angels. They are probably better served to get the team healthy and playing their best baseball capturing the wild card.

Detroit has 21 of remaining 36 games at home, where they are spectacular 40-20 (+12.4 units). Their most challenging games will be home and home with Tampa Bay. Otherwise, it’s up to the Tigers to take care of business, playing their two closest competitors Chicago and Minnesota, 13 times in their last 16 games, including the last seven at Comerica Park. It’s Detroit’s division to lose.

The Los Angeles Angels might have the second best record in baseball, yet are not a sure thing to win the division, five games ahead of Texas. The Angels should benefit playing 21 of last 38 at the Big A in Anaheim, however the pitching has to have manager Mike Scioscia popping Tums like most playing chewing sunflowers seeds. The Halos have baseball’s best offense and they need to, since only Kansas City, Cleveland, Baltimore and Washington allow more runs per game. The Angels have mid-September road trip to Boston and Texas and return home to face the Yankees and four more games with the Rangers, whom they are 3-9 against.

Do the Chicago Cubs have any chance trailing the St. Louis by seven in the loss column? It’s remote, but the window isn’t completely closed. These NL Central rivals will meet one last time for three game series on September 18. If the Cardinals maintain the same pace they are at, they should win 12 of next 21. (As of Tuesday night) That would mean the Cubs would have to win 17 of 23 to be within three games when the series starts. Though it sounds nearly impossible, the North Siders play teams worse than themselves like Washington, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and the Mets and comparable teams like Houston, Milwaukee and the White Sox (make-up game). The task is made further difficult having only two open dates remaining compared to the Cardinals five.

Nothing to report on the Philadelphia Phillies unless they turn into the New York Mets of the past few seasons and totally collapse.

The Colorado Rockies are in playoff position and could still win the NL West, playing host 21 of last 36 ballgames at Coors Field. They are playing the front-running Dodgers right now and have six games remaining at San Francisco. They would love to have three meaningful games at Dodger Stadium the last weekend of the regular season for the division crown.

Los Angeles’ immediate goal is to build lead over Colorado to no less than four games when they leave town Thursday. If they would manage to do so, they quite literally could be favored in almost every game the rest of the year. The only teams they will face with winning records are San Francisco (home and home series) and the final three encounters versus the Rockies.

San Francisco still has a shot at the wild card, but they will have to win five of six or more at AT&T Park against the Rockies to give themselves a chance. The task might be too overwhelming, still having to take on the Dodgers six times, at Philadelphia for three and hosting the Cubs four times.

Rangers trying to buck the system in Bronx

There had been a great deal of speculation the Texas Rangers were perfectly positioned to steal a game from the New York Yankees in the opener on forums and chat sites catering to sports wagering talk on Tuesday. The belief was from underdog and value players, the Yankees would be flat after a big series win in Boston and Joba Chamberlain had not been very effective of late, making Texas a delicious choice at +185 on the money line.

New York (78-47, +5.6 units) looked anything but flat taking a 4-0 lead in the bottom of the first inning. This Texas (70-54, +19.4 units) team is a little different from the past, not wilting under the heat and humidity the Lone Star State brings this time of year and they kept battling, earning a 10-5 lead and almost gave it away, with New York scoring four runs in the bottom of the ninth, to come up just short at 10-9.

High scoring games are nothing new at the new Yankees Stadium, where the average score totals 10.3 runs per game. The Rangers will attempt to win the series tonight on ESPN2 at 7:05 Eastern and possibly further close the gap in the AL West with Los Angeles with another victory.
Texas will have New York’s full attention, as the Yankees lost for just the 19th time in 60 games (best in baseball) in the Bronx this season. The Rangers will be in virtually the same exact position as last night, being +185 underdogs according to DiamondSportsbook.com.

Texas is feeling spry after defeating the Yanks and will send 22-year-old left-hander Derek Holland (7-7, 4.72 ERA) to the mound. The rookie will face an intimidating New York lineup that punishes left-hand pitchers, sporting a 28-14 record and he’s been rocked for eight runs in 6 1/3 innings against the Bronx Bombers this season. Holland has found a groove in last three starts, with 3-0 record and 1.29 ERA; expect the Yankees to test him.

Andy Pettitte (10-6, 4.25) will take the ball for Joe Girardi’s club, seeking a third straight win. Pettitte and his teammates will go after a fifth consecutive triumph when he’s been the starter. Though the veteran left-hander did not have his best stuff last Friday against Boston in wild 20-11 win (seven runs allowed in five innings), prior to that he had 2.61 ERA in last five starts.
By all appearances Texas should have another shot as big underdog, until this sobering system is unveiled.

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing nine runs or more against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more.

This system is a proven winner and consistent. Since 1997, the record is 184-48, 79.3 percent and over the last five years has been equally as steady with 64-17 (79 percent) mark. What makes this system work is teams involved in high scoring affairs and positioned as large underdogs typically don’t respond well in next contest and this is acknowledged with teams like Texas losing by 2.5 runs per game.

Can Texas win tonight, sure, is it a good idea to place a wager on them, after reading to this point, you decide.

Tuesday Plays and Standings Update

Yesterday’s 3-0 record was sweeeet, raising record to 209-141-3, 59.7 percent since April 10. Today we come back with a system that is 83.6 percent and sparkling this season also. The Top Trend follows the exploits of Padres and though I personally haven’t agreed with the LLC plays, who cares, they’ve won three in a row and have another today. Good Luck

What I learned today – Ryan Spilborghs' grand slam in the bottom of the 14th inning gave the Rockies a 6-4 win against the Giants. Since 1900, only one player hit a walk-off grand slam in a later inning. On July 28, 1951 Clyde Vollmer of the Red Sox hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 16th inning to beat the Indians at Fenway Park. The last walk-off slam in the 14th inning was hit by Jason Giambi, on May 17, 2002 at Yankee Stadium against the Twins. (Thanks, Elias)

Haven’t mentions this in awhile, however here is where we stand at monitored sites.

The Sports Eye #1 MLB
Free Sports Monitor #2 MLB
Cappers Watchdog #7 MLB

Cappers Watchdog #4 NFLX

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) This is one system we’ve used several times before and why not. PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like the White Sox with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing 10 runs or more. Over the last five years the record is 102-20, including 12-2 this season.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The San Diego Friars are 3-20 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season, losing by gargantuan three runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection has clicked off three straight winners and is 6-1 behind Toronto as home underdog,

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StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet – Yours truly a writer.

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The First State Parlay: A Solution For Delaware’s Sports Betting Quandry

A federal appeals court shocked everyone yesterday by yanking the rug out from under Delaware’s plan for single game sports betting. The three-judge panel decided that Delaware (state motto: Our Lawyers Suck) could only offer parlay bets, and not single game wagers as planned. They also have limited the wagering to the NFL. In their infinite wisdom, the jurists interpreted the 1992 federal law banning sports betting except in grandfathered states Nevada, Delaware, Montana, and Oregon as limiting Delaware to the wagering options they offered before 1992. Delaware offered a few months of NFL parlay card betting in 1976.

The governor and state officials are understandably upset, as are officials at the three Delaware racetracks that are in the midst of multi-million dollar renovations to turn portions of their facilities into Vegas-style sports books.

Delaware politicians who were counting on a revenue boost were stunned by the unexpectedly far-reaching decision. Fortunately for these officials, I have their solution, it’s called “The First State Parlay.”

Delaware is permitted to offer parlay wagers on NFL football, but not single game wagering. So why not create a parlay that comes as close to possible as mimicking single game wagering. Here’s how it works.

The “First State Parlay” requires the bettor to pick one team at the prevailing pointspread. That team must win to complete the first leg of the parlay. The bettor then picks a second game where they are allowed to move the line 47 points. The bettor must lay 11 to 10 odds on his parlay bet. 11-10 is the standard for single-game wagers in the sports betting industry.

Let’s show an example of how the “First State Parlay” would work. In the first week of NFL action, let’s say Vinnie Cheesesteak from Philadelphia wants to drive down to Delaware Park to bet $110 to win $100 on his beloved Eagles at +2 over the Panthers. He must combine the Eagles at +2 with a second game that he gets to move 47 points, so he takes the Bears, currently a 3-point dog, at +50 over the Packers.

If the Eagles cover +2, and the Bears can stay within 50 points of the Packers, Vinnie Cheesesteak wins $100. If the Eagles don’t cover the spread he loses $110. If either game lands right on the number it’s a push, and his stake is refunded, no matter the result of the other game.

While this comes very close to replicating single game wagering, by stipulating that the second leg of the parlay can be moved by 47-points, and no more, Delaware can claim that there is still an element of chance. In the playoffs following the 1999 season the Jacksonville Jaguars hosted the Miami Dolphins in the what proved to be the last NFL game for both QB Dan Marino and coach Jimmy Johnson. If you took the Dolphins from +7.5 and moved them 47 points to +54.5, you would have lost your bet by a half-point when the Dolphins were filleted by the Jags 52-7.

Is the “First State Parlay” an obvious workaround to try to turn single game betting into parlay betting? Yes. But it seems to fit into the new parameters set by the court. Delaware should hire some new lawyers and have them consider it as a potential solution.

By Kevin O'Neill of Real World Sports.

Study on College Football Talent

In order for the very best teams to play in the biggest bowls their conferences have tie-ins to; the first thing they have to do is win their conference championship. The BCS has its teams they select first from its conference champions and Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West and Sun Belt winners all have bowl games lined up for them to play for winning the league title.

Coaching is important, however recruiting in what makes the very best teams. Having the best talent year after year will keep most any school at or near the top of the conference standings. I devised a way several years ago that breaks down whom the most talented players are by position with a weighted system that creates a point value, within each conference. Like all-preseason rankings, this doesn’t assure who will finish where, since players we have never heard of will emerge (does Knowshon Moreno ring a bell) and alter the dynamics of a team. Nevertheless, this is trustworthy guide leading into the season that could open up a few eyes and either make or save the sports bettor money in September and later. Key point, this does not take into consideration how a schedule will affect the outcome, just the talent aspect.


ACC -Atlantic
1) Clemson -16.5
2) N.C. State -16
3) Boston College -14.5
4) Florida State -12.5
5) Maryland - 6.5
6) Wake Forest -6

ACC – Coastal
1) Virginia Tech -23
2) Georgia Tech -20
3) North Carolina – 13.5
4) Duke -7
5) Miami- 6.5
6) Duke -6

Analysis- What was absolutely shocking about doing this study was Florida State is picked to win the ACC Atlantic by most observers, yet ranks sixth in top level talent. That is not to say the Seminoles lack ability, rather, they don’t appear to have a number of difference-makers like Virginia Tech for example. Another aspect that caught me off-guard was how devoid of superior talent the Miami Hurricanes really are. Again, similar to their rival Florida State, the “U” could emerge as a better than expected TEAM overall, but they don’t start the season blessed with tremendous ability. Clemson is under the radar a bit, which might be to their liking, since their offensive and defensive lines will be among the best in the ACC. Nine of the 12 ACC teams have winning overall records as underdogs the last four years. (Check with Sportsbook.com for the latest odds)

Big East
1) Pittsburgh -26.5
2) West Virginia -22.5
3) South Florida -20.5
4) Rutgers -19.5
5) Connecticut -17.5
6) Cincinnati -15
7) Louisville -13
8) Syracuse -10.5

Analysis- Coach Dave Wannstedt has 15 returning Pitt starters in what should be a highly competitive Big East race. Pittsburgh and Rutgers should have the best offensive lines and the Panthers will be rather stout up front on defense. West Virginia is officially in transition on offense with Pat White gone at quarterback and new passing offense will reflect changes in the coming years. South Florida and Rutgers should very competitive, with the Bulls a year smarter having learned what it means to be chased rather than a team on the rise. If USF’s defensive front plays to capabilities, watch out. Cincinnati will score points, however they have 10 new defensive starters. I know Greg Paulus would have been big time recruit if he had chosen football over playing basketball at Duke, but what does it say about how bad the Syracuse football program is when a player walks in to play the most important position on the field, having not played in four years? A ploy to sell tickets, we’ll find out.

Mountain West

1) BYU -25
2) TCU -24
3) Utah -21.5
4) Air Force -18.5
5) Colorado State -15.5
6) UNLV -14
7) Wyoming -10.5
8) New Mexico -6
9) San Diego State -3.5

Analysis – This should be another exciting season in the Mountain West, with three teams capable of winning title. BYU has the slight edge over TCU and Max Hall is poised for monster senior campaign. Utah will be in the mix after perfect season, but lost a lot of talent from last season. It’s a rare occurrence when a military school has a number of players back, but this Air Force club might have a couple of upsets they can pull off. The rest of the MWC is several rungs below, meaning they are unlikely to cover many road spreads and could cover home games, especially if top contenders have look-ahead game.

Big 12 North
1) Missouri -12
2) Kansas -10.5
3) Nebraska -8.5
4) Kansas State 4.5
5) Iowa State -2
6) Colorado -1.5

Big 12 South
1) Oklahoma -41.5
2) Texas -24.5
3) Oklahoma State 18.5
4) Texas Tech -13.5
5) Baylor -12
6) Texas A&M -0

Analysis – What jumps off the page about the Big 12 is the disparity in the two divisions. Missouri is rated talent-wise on par with Baylor, who would quality as “cash for clunkers” in the Big 12 South. Texas brings back 16 starters including quarterback Colt McCoy, nevertheless, Oklahoma will score points with QB Sam Bradford and could be a great defensive team, while the Longhorns lost numbers in the defensive line. Oklahoma State should have similar season to a year ago, with all its offense. The Big 12 North looks like winner by default and Texas A&M is the first team in four years I’ve had that doesn’t rate a player with any All-Big 12 potential. Oddmakers will have their hands full trying to find right numbers when North meets South.

WAC
1) Boise State -31.5
2) Nevada -28.5
3) Louisiana Tech-24
4) Fresno State -18.5
5) San Jose State -16.5
6) Hawaii -9.5
7) Idaho -7.5
8) New Mexico State -7.5
9) Utah State -6

Analysis- The numbers are a bit of fooler, since Boise State has easily more overall talent than any other team in the WAC, just not all-league material everywhere. That is actually good for the WAC and Nevada is the one team that could upset the Broncos, with QB Colin Kaepernick leading explosive offense behind a very good offensive line and arguably the best D-line in the conference. Louisiana Tech is going the right direct under coach Derek Dooley, having moved from seventh to third in talent outlook in three years. These Bulldogs have definite Play On potential in 2009. Maybe Fresno State should become independent, since coach Pat Hill seems to focus on those contests more anyway, for a program that looks to have stalled and is stellar Play Against conference club.

Conference USA East Division
1) East Carolina -26.5
2) Southern Miss -23.5
3) Marshall -18
4) Central Florida -9.5
5) Memphis -8.5
6) UAB -8

Conference USA West Division
1) Houston -17
2) Tulsa -13
3) UTEP -6.5
4) SMU -5
5) Tulane -4.5
6) Rice -3.5

Analysis- East Carolina and Southern Miss are the class of C-USA and should have intriguing battle. Coach Mark Snyder is in hot water at Marshall with 16-31 (16-25-2 ATS) record and has the talent to have respectable season that could save his job. All the better teams in the West Division have offensive talent and are very thin on defense to stop anybody. After 7-1 record in conference and bowl experience, Rice returns to being Rice with exceptional skill players graduated. Still a conference to watch totals on because of lack of defense.

Big Ten
1) Penn State -29
2) Iowa -18
3) Wisconsin -15
4) Illinois -14.5
5) Ohio State -14
6) Michigan State -13.5
7) Michigan -13
8) Northwestern -9
9) Minnesota -8
10) Indiana -4
11) Purdue -3.5

Analysis- I spent more time on this conference than any other. Not because I lived most of my life in Big Ten country, but because I could not believe Ohio State graded out so low. The Buckeyes won’t finish this far down in the standings, as talented players coach Jim Tressel recruited will step forward, possibly similar to the 2007 team that played LSU in the BCS title tilt. However, I’m not sure until the Buckeyes play, which those players will be. Iowa and Illinois both could be surprise teams if the Hawkeyes offense improves and the Fighting Illini come together beyond the defensive line. Wisconsin has players concentrated in certain areas and Michigan State is improving, still lacking qualities to really make a major move. Penn State, grading out this high made me think the Big Ten might be really weak this season, since the Nittany Lions suffered heavy losses, but have QB Daryll Clark and RB Evan Royster in the fold. If instincts are correct, lots of dogs will cover.

Pac-10
1) USC -31
2) California -22
3) UCLA -17
4) Oregon State -16
5) Oregon -15
6) Arizona State -15
7) Arizona -11.5
8) Stanford -9
9) Washington -7
10) Washington State -1

Analysis – Listen closely, it’s the familiar beat of top level recruits beating the doors down to play at USC for coach Pete Carroll. While some talk that California might have closed the gap this season, the Trojans most difficult opponent the last several seasons has been complacency when you least expect it, which suggests the Bears don’t fit the mold. UCLA has definite Play On potential after losing 44-man starts last season and its quarterback play couldn’t have been worse. Watch the Bruins in 2009. This is league devoid of renowned quarterback play it appears. Most teams’ fortunes (and sports bettors) will rise and fall with how well their signal callers do in making plays.

SEC East
1) Florida -35
2) Georgia -16
3) Tennessee -11
4) Kentucky -8
5) South Carolina -3.5
6) Vanderbilt-2

SEC West
1) Alabama -22
2) LSU -16.5
3) Mississippi -13
4) Arkansas -7.5
5) Auburn -6
6) Mississippi State -2

Analysis – There is an 800-pound gorilla in the SEC and everyone is trying to figure how to knock it off. Only Florida seems capable of beating Florida, in what could be somewhat of a down year for the SEC, maybe unfairly compared to the Gators squad. Georgia and Tennessee look eons away from matching up. This might be the end of the line for Steve Spurrier in Columbia, not being able to work recruiting magic to bring in high-caliber players to compete, especially on offense. Ole Miss is mildly popular pick to win the SEC West, but both Alabama and LSU have more talented players, with the Rebels better at skill positions. It’s shocking to see how far Auburn has slipped this fast from ability perspective. The SEC has several one-sided crazy against the spread rivalries that make little sense and unless you play and win.

MAC-East
1) Buffalo -20.5
2) Temple -12
3) Akron -10
4) Ohio U -7.5
5) Bowling Green -7
6) Kent State -7
7) Miami-O -0.5

MAC –West
1) Central Michigan -25
2) Western Michigan -17
3) Ball State -15
4) Northern Illinois -12
5) Toledo -6.5
6) Eastern Michigan -4.5

Analysis- Buffalo caught more than their fair share of breaks in winning the MAC in 2008. Whether they will have anywhere close to the same success is debatable, yet no arguing head coach Turner Gill has done a fine job of adding players that can compete at this level. The rest of the MAC East teams are fairly close outside of Miami-O and a startling winner could come forward, just like Buffalo did. Central and Western Michigan are head and shoulders above the MAC West pack with good talent around superior quarterbacks Dan LeFevour and Tim Hiller respectively. The MAC’s better teams usually cover spreads and the weaker teams fail to do so.

Sun Belt
1) Troy -33
2) Arkansas State -21
3) Florida Atlantic -20
4) UL-Monroe -20
5) Louisiana – Lafayette -17
6) Florida International -16.5
7) Middle Tenn. State -13
8) North Texas -6
9) Western Kentucky -1

Analysis- What separates Troy from the competition is incoming quality players ready to move into starting spots after seeing action the previous year. These replacements help keep the Trojans near the top of the Sun Belt standings under coach Larry Blakeney. From talent standpoint, the standings in the SBC could go many ways in slots 2-7, with these teams fairly balanced. What Western Kentucky brings to the party will be worth watching in their first season of conference play. Road teams have often been the best wager in conference action.

NL West Heats Up

Exactly one month ago, the Los Angeles Dodgers were as close to a lock to win the division as there was in baseball. Manager Joe Torre’s club led the National League West by nine games and was running smoother than a brand new Nissan 370Z on the Pacific Coast Highway. However, baseball’s fortunes can shift gears quickly and over a 162-game schedule, very few teams in the history of the game have managed to avoid rough patches and run wide open all season.

Los Angeles (74-51, +12.4 units) has seen their lead in the division diminish to three games for two reasons, one of their own doing. The Dodgers are 12-16 since July 25, and have a faulty offense to blame. L.A. has scored three or less runs in 13 of its recent 16 losses and it doesn’t seem to be a coincidence that without Juan Pierre in the lineup on a regular basis, with Manny Ramirez back patrolling leftfield, there are fewer scoring chances with runners in scoring position. Though the Dodgers won three of four over the Chicago Cubs, they managed to score five total runs in last three contests and are 27-45 after scoring two runs or less three straight games.

The Colorado Rockies (71-54, +14 units) have been the other reason for the club from La-La Land hasn’t been able to get away with playing undistinguished baseball. Since former Dodger manager Jim Tracy took over, Colorado is 53-26, proving not to be the mercurial club like in the past. The Rockies have won 18 of last 28 to close the gap to present number and came from behind three times against San Francisco, their nearest wild card competitor, to win the series 3-1, which included last night’s improbable walk off grand slam by Ryan Spilbroghs in the bottom of the 14th. Colorado comes into this series 15-4 after consecutive wins by two runs or less.

The Rockies will be tested mentally, since they have lost 10 of 12 to Los Angeles, including five of six at Coors Field. Jason Hammel (8-7, 4.54 ERA) will be the game one hurler for the Rocks and they have won seven of his last 10 starts. Los Angeles will counter with Clayton Kershaw (8-7, 2.96) who’s needed a directional-finder this month. The young lefty had been pitching brilliantly this season, however since August; he’s walked 15 batters in 19 innings. The increased wildness and the lack of run support (2.3 RPG) have seen the Dodgers lose Kershaw’s last six starts, after winning the previous seven.

This NL West affair opened with the Dodgers as -125 money line favorites at Bookmaker.com and the number has moved against L.A. to -110, with total Un9.5. Colorado is on 26-10 roll at home and has punished lefties, winning 11 of last 12 at Coors. The Rockies are 9-1-1 OVER against teams with a winning record.

The Dodgers have experience in handling Colorado and are 14-5 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season and is 15-5 UNDER when the money line is -100 to -150, with Kershaw pitching.

This anticipated conflict and series will be available in local markets and on MLB.TV starting at 8:40 Eastern.

Make a mark on a Monday

Slipped a bit on Sunday with 1-2 day, as Mark Buehrle continues to struggle since throwing “Perfecto”. The LCC consensus has left a couple of winners and goes for third straight with Free Play. The Top Trend explains part of Washington’s woes (not the White House). Best System involves the best game on the NL board today and is 36-9. Good Luck

What I thought today – With the Yankees winning the series in Boston, they have shown their current superiority. New York is on pace to win about 101 games, which would mean the Red Sox would have to go 32-7 to finish the season to surpass them, very unlikely. Instead, Boston should work on holding off Texas for wild card, get everybody healthy and hopefully be playing best baseball come October and see if they can make another strong run.

Almost forgot to mention about Phillies triple play yesterday. Though triple plays don't happen often, whenever they do, I'm always reminded of Yogi Berraism which states, "Triple plays can really take out of an inning."

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150, who are poor power hitting team like San Francisco (<=0.9 HR's/game), against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less home runs a start, with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season. Since 2005, this system checks in a 36-9, 80 percent. Free Baseball Trend -2) The Washington Nat it nals are 5-28 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season, losing by 1.7 RPG.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection has been a wise consensus the last couple of days and is 7-0 on the Seattle Mariners tonight.

New Guaranteed NFL Picks – They are cleaning up check out our packages.

StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet – Yours truly a writer.

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Monday Night Football Preview

As far as NFL preseason games go, this Monday night contest has a number of story lines to follow. The New York Jets have a new head coach in Rex Ryan and it is taking all of one game to return to Baltimore, where he spent the last 10 years, the last four as defensive coordinator. While Ryan will acquaint himself with friends on the Ravens sidelines and others in the stands, he will have to soon make his first really challenging decision of who will the Flyboys starting quarterback.

In many ways it’s a no-lose decision, since top draft choice Mark Sanchez will be under center as the starting quarterback in New York eventually. Sanchez is battling with holdover Kellen Clemens and the former USC Trojan will take the field first when the Jets have the ball on Monday.

New York lost at home to St. Louis 23-20 as four-point favorites and arrives in Baltimore in a favorable spot. The Jets are three-point underdogs at DiamondSportsbook.com and underdogs (or Pick) off an upset loss as a favorite are 29-9 ATS this week of the preseason.

Sanchez, Clemens and Erik Anige will go against what has been one the best defenses of this decade in the Ravens. Linebacker Ray Lewis may no longer have the speed and quickness of a few seasons ago, yet he spearheads a fearsome bunch that enjoys hitting whatever moves in opposing uniforms. The defense befuddled Washington last week, holding them to 196 total points and kept them from registering any points.

Offensively, second year signal caller Joe Flacco was efficient 9-of-15 for 103 yards in two series and will see greater action this week. Troy Smith will follow Flacco after throwing for 200 yards last week, part of the 500 yards the Ravens totaled. With John Beck out with shoulder injury, Baltimore signed Cleo Lemon this week, since he is familiar with offensive coordinator Cam Cameron's system, having played in Miami when Cameron was there. With last week’s shutout win, Baltimore is 4-5 ATS at home the last five years in the preseason.

Oddsmakers have set the total at 32.5 and which would appear to favor New York who is 11-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 35 or less. The low figure could also attract the attention of totals players, with the Ravens 22-10 UNDER as a favorite and 11-2 UNDER as a home favorite of three points or less.

Kickoff is set for 8 Eastern on ESPN with New York 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight preseason games as the visitor.

Two Monday Tilts Highlight MLB Schedule

With only nine wagering opportunities on the baseball beat this Monday, some games take on greater importance than others. Two games in particular standout for today, Detroit at Los Angeles Angels and the final game between San Francisco and Colorado. Here is a betting outlook at each conflict.

Tigers at Angels

With football programming taking over the mother-ship on Monday’s, baseball gets moved to the side slightly, over to ESPN2 (remember when they tried to make it sound cool by calling it “The Deuce”). For real baseball and sports fans, that should not detract from the fact that two American League division leaders matchup, with a superb pitching matchup.

Detroit (65-58, -1.2 units) is three games clear in the loss column of Chicago, thanks to its efforts at home, not on the road. The Tigers have had nothing to roar about with 25-38 road record, scoring just four runs per game, which is 25th in baseball. Detroit just lost series to appalling Oakland club and will take on team from Anaheim that loves to scoot. The Tigers are 3-14 in road games vs. good base-running teams averaging 0.85 or more stolen bases a game over the last three seasons.

Justin Verlander (13-7, 3.29 ERA) will be entrusted with limiting the Angels, having 2.70 ERA in his last eight starts and has pitched at least eight innings in four of his last six outings. The only knock on Verlander is 0-2 record with a 4.55 ERA in five starts (Tigers 1-4) against the Angels.

The Halos (74-48, +24.1 units) are six games ahead of Texas in the loss column in the AL West and will send their best pitcher to the mound in Jered Weaver (13-4, 3.89). Weaver’s been a little spotty in the second half of the season, but is off complete game road shutout at Cleveland. Weaver is 5-1 in his last nine starts, with an ERA of 5.43, however that has gone somewhat unnoticed with the Angels batters scoring 8.2 runs in that stretch. Weaver is 8-1 at the Big A this season (Halos 11-2) and his ERA is more than a full run lower at home.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Angels as -125 money line favorites with total Un8.5, in part because how effective they have been at home against Detroit. L.A. has won eight of 10 and 27 of last 35 at home against the Tigers and are 15-5 having lost three of their last four games this season. The Angels are 10-2 OVER after seven or more consecutive road games and Verlander and the Tigers are 10-1 OVER playing on Monday’s.

The opening pitch is set for 7:05 Pacific with Detroit 17-36 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record.

San Francisco at Colorado

The Rockies (70-54, +13 units) turned a deficit into an advantage with one swing of the bat yesterday and is positioned to win three of four against their closest wild card competitor. Colorado’s Seth Smith homered a hanging changeup from Tim Lincecum, giving the Rockies the lead and they went on to win 4-2. Colorado is now three games ahead of San Francisco (67-57, +10.1 units) and would like to build on that lead before traveling to the Bay Area next week to play three at San Fran.

Colorado is 20-9 after a win by two runs or less and will send Jason Marquis (14-8, 3.58) to the mound trying to become the National League’s first 15-game winner. The Rocks will face a rejuvenated Barry Zito (8-11, 4.26), who has allowed three or less runs in his last seven starts. The left-hander has been victimized by offense that has produced a league-low 2.9 runs for a regular starting pitcher.

The Rockies are -165 money line favorites with total Un9.5. Colorado is 16-4 (+14.6 Units) against the ML playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season and 21-12 OVER as a home favorite of -125 to -175. San Francisco is looking for the split and is 12-6 vs. a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start and Zito and the Giants are 13-3 UNDER in August games since 2007.

This NL West confrontation is 5:40 Pacific start.

In Search of Perfect Sunday

Another rock solid 2-1 Saturday, leads us into Sunday. The Best System is a little frightful backing a bad team, however 80 percent odds in your favor is exceptional. The LCC delivered yesterday and have very strong opinion on tonight’s Yankees-Red Sox matchup. The Top Trend is nearly solid gold with this pitcher on the mound. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – Michael Cuddyer hit his 20th home run of the year to help lead the Twins to an 8-7 victory over the Royals Saturday night, becoming the fourth Twins' player to hit 20 homers this season (Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel are the others). This marks the first time in 22 years that the Twins have had at least four players hit 20 home runs in the same season. In 1987, a year in which the Twins won the World Series, Tom Brunansky, Gary Gaetti, Kent Hrbek and Kirby Puckett all went deep at least 20 times.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Cincinnati with a money line of +100 to +150 with a frosty starting pitcher- ERA of 6.50 or higher over his last 10 starts, with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. In the last five years this system is delightful 40-10.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Mark Buehrle and the White Sox are 22-2 against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season, in his career.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection has a somewhat surprising 8-0 consensus (in my opinion) playing the New York Yankees tonight.

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Wagering on the NFL is about uncovering edges

For sports bettors, there is no greater challenge than trying to beat the oddsmakers in wagering on professional football. This on going battle is reminiscent of golf, though you might have great days and sometimes outstanding years, you never really beat the game, it’s more of a survival. The sharpest minds are always on the prowl seeking ways to profit against the untamed beast, knowing full well what works today could be as meaningless as Week 1 stats at the end of the season.

This process is like being an archeologist, you keep digging, and often, no matter how pointless it seems, you’ll come across something when you least expect it, something that pays dividends immediately and down the road.

I ended up spending a great deal of time searching for different winning information and like the previously mentioned archeologist, came up empty more than once, despite what were believed to be solid fundamental principles, applying to making money betting the NFL.

The methodology was to pick a category and review the top and bottom aspects of each one. Ideally, hitting the bomb would be fantastic, however, realistically, moving the chains would work just fine, as long as it scored in the end.

One element that seemed to make sense was time of possession. If a team has the ball and scores enough points within the given time they have the ball, they place added pressure on the opposing team to match scores. Many analysts and play-by-play announcers are quick to point out T.O.P. is useless in a given game, when say turnovers or quick strikes are involved in their respective contest they are broadcasting. While this certainly happens, too often this is taken as factual material, with little substance behind it other than personal opinion for the telecast they are covering.

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