Saturday Selections

Engineered a good comeback with 2-0 day. The Top Trend reviews how the Twinkies handle playing against teams in the National League. The Best System is an 83.7 percent winner over an extended period of time and Mark goes a for second straight winner here at 3DW. Good Luck.

What I saw yesterday – The last few years haven’t watched as much of the College World Series, but my interest was piqued a little more this season for some reason. Many of the games have been outstanding and the 9th inning by Arizona State and Texas will be remembered in Omaha for some time. In case you didn’t see it, the Sun Devils broke 2-2 tie in the top of the ninth and the Longhorns hit two solo shots in the bottom of the inning to win, and will now play for title. My LSU pick is still alive.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams who are below average AL hitting team, hitting .265 or less as a team, against a good NL starting pitcher (3.70 ERA or less), who are batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. Texas fits this style for a system that is 41-8 the last 12 seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Minnesota Twins are 22-6 in interleague play since 2008.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Mark of the LCC nailed yesterday’s play and likes Toronto to bounce back from extra innings loss.

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MLB Series Wagering- Dodgers at Angels

The I-5 series moves south, down to Orange County, with the Dodgers taking on the Angels. Without question this is the best series of the weekend with a lot of reasons to follow the action. The team actually from Los Angeles has the best record in the Major Leagues at 44-23 and has garnered +17.3 units of profit for backers. The L.A. area club who plays in Anaheim has gotten hot, winning six in a row and seven of nine, to crawl within 1.5 games of Texas for the AL West lead.

The Dodgers are averaging five runs per game and that numbers figures only to rise once Manny Ramirez returns to the lineup. Manager Joe Torre has been fortunate that Juan Pierre had step up his game so well and they have won 11 of last 15 road games, thanks to better than expected starting pitching.

The Halos (35-29, +7.8 units) have been tearing the cover off the ball during this win streak, batting .350 as a team, giving them highest batting average in baseball at .282. (Though 10th in runs scored) They have accomplished this in spite of not having all their big sluggers in the lineup like Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero and Bobby Abreu, who have missed time with various ailments. The Angels are 8-1 interleague action and 32-13 against the National League the last three seasons.

The Dodgers will send their ace Chad Billingsley (9-3, 2.72 ERA) to the mound in the opener. Billingsley has exceeded expectations tossing at least six innings in 13 of 14 starts and lasting at least seven innings in eight of those starts. The right-hander has allowed more than four runs just once this season and the Dodgers are 11-3 when he’s been given the starting assignment. The visitor has opened as -107 money line favorite with total of Un8 at DiamondSportsbook.com and they are 47-19 in that role.

Joe Saunders (7-4, 3.66 ERA) might have something to say about that for the Angels. Saunders went through a rugged stretch recently where he allowed 13 runs in 18 innings, but he was back on his game against San Diego, pitching 8 1/3 innings surrendering one run in 9-1 wipeout. Saunders and the Halos are 16-3 versus team averaging less than a home run per game and 10-3 as underdogs of +150 or less.

The difference could turn on the Dodgers ability to hit lefties, with 15-6 record this season.

Game 1 Edge: Dodgers

Game 2 of the series will have a very unusual flavor, as brothers will meet for the first time in their lives. Jered Weaver (7-2, 2.08) will face his older brother Jeff (3-1, 3.72), who is expected to make first start since May 20, filling in for other Dodger starters on the DL. “That'll be weird," Jered Weaver said. "I just wish we could face each other in the batter's box. That would be fun."

Jered has matured into the type of pitcher many in the Angels organization had expected. He’s been brutal on right-hand hitters, with them batting .155 and loves pitching at the Big A, with microscopic 1.01 ERA. Manager Mike Scioscia has enjoyed sending the younger Weaver to the mound, since they have won his last five outings and they are 21-8 at home when Jered is the starter. Look for the Angels to be decided favorite with Jered Weaver 3-1 in five career outings against the Dodgers with a 1.59 ERA.

Game 2 Edge: Angels

The series finale is the ESPN Sunday night game and Torre has seen plenty of the team from Anaheim to know what to expect. "They are getting it together. They are intimidating; they can beat you in a lot of different ways. We don't have the speed they have. We bite and scratch, but [Mike Scioscia's] club is pretty much bred to do that. They keep plugging in another fast guy. I really respect what Mike has done in the years he's been there. You knew from the get-go what kind of club he wanted to have. You know as a catcher the kind of club that makes you uncomfortable, and that's the kind of club that makes you uncomfortable."

Torre of course has plenty of faith in his own club and will send Clayton Kershaw (3-5, 4.13) to the mound. Kershaw bounced bad from his worst outing of the year, shutting out Oakland for 5 2/3 innings, striking out eight. Coming into this series, the Dodgers are 32-16 in night games and 13-7 as underdogs. If the game is close, the team from northern L.A. has superior bullpen and is 16-6 in one run games.

The Angels will use veteran John Lackey (2-2, 6.10) who might being rounding into form after starting the season on the DL. Lackey hurled seven strong innings against San Francisco, ringing up 10 K’s and not walking a batter. He had his best fastball of the season and curveball really had downward motion. If the Halos bats stay hot, Lackey could improve on 5-1 record with a 1.50 ERA against the other Angelinos.

Game 3 Edge: Angels

Though the Dodgers are the better team, they have played with a mental block in this Los Angeles turf war. Since 2001, those in Dodger blue have won only six times in 24 tries near Disneyland. Based on how this series has played out over the years and the Angels playing best baseball of the season right now, will back them this weekend, looking for a second straight winner and working back towards .500.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Dodgers +125, Angels -155

3DW Pick: Los Angeles (The Angels)

2009 Record – 3-6

Bounce Back Friday

We got hammered with an ugly 0-3 day. No great system plays today, but one that just missed at 79.1 percent. The I-70 series ends up being part of the Top Trend and Mark of the LCC is +8 units in last nine baseball plays and has top choice as today’s Free Play. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – Rick Porcello of the Detroit Tigers has won seven of his last nine starts, making him the first pitcher under 21 to win seven of nine starts since Dwight Gooden did it in 1985. The last American League pitcher to do so was Jim Palmer in 1966.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all teams like the Red Sox with a money line of -100 to -150, when the team's hitters draw four walks or more a game on the season, after allowing two runs or less three straight games. This just missed qualify at 79.1 percent with 68-18 record.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Brad Thompson and the Cardinals are 15-3 in night games since 2007.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Mark of the Left Coast Connection likes Oakland’s matchup against San Diego on the road.

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Why are these baseball teams playing Under?

There has been more of movement the last several years for baseball bettors to play totals. It is easy to trace the origins as totals today have price tags of -135 or -140 on a particular number, compared to mostly -120 at the highest point before a number change not that many seasons ago. (Ex. - Under 9 (-120) moves down to 8.5) With betting lines like the stock market, what creates this kind of volatility? Let’s examine the top four teams playing UNDER the total in 2009.

The Texas Rangers are 40-23-2 UNDER, which is in and of itself a shocker. Texas has long been known as offensive club playing in run-friendly Rangers Park at Arlington. Along with this, the Rangers pitchers have not exactly cast a spell over the opposition, as they have given up about the same number of runs as the offense generates. Their have been changes within the organization since Nolan Ryan became President and they are apparent.

The offense still scores runs, averaging five a game, which is down a little, with the offense slumping a bit lately. The biggest change comes in the pitching. It is doesn’t seem plausible Texas will lead the American League or baseball for that matter in earned run average playing half their games in Arlington bandbox. That doesn’t mean they can’t improve and have they ever.

After finishing 30th in baseball with 5.37 ERA in 2008, the Rangers pitchers (really have a different look about them) have improved nearly a whole run to 4.42, ranking 18th overall. (Thru 6-17-09) The most noticeable difference has been throwing strikes. This season, Rangers’ pitchers are 11th in walks allowed, last year they were 24th. Texas also has legitimate ways to close out games, as closers Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson have led the way in the Rangers converting 82.6 percent of save attempts. (19 of 23)

The feel is oddsmakers have been slow to adjust and the wagering public has not gotten on board with Texas playing this way.

The Chicago White Sox are another team that has played UNDER with 39-26-1 mark. The reasoning for the South Siders to be playing this style of ball is not scoring as many runs, averaging 4.1 per game. The White Sox are at their best when they are hitting the long ball. That was true in 2005 when they won the World Series, finishing fifth in the baseball with 200 home runs and last year when they made the playoffs, leading the Major Leagues with 235. At this juncture they are strictly middle-of-the-road ranked 14th overall.

The big boppers are getting older like Jim Thome and Carlos Quentin has been injured and not the same player as last season. One can not overlook the weather factor, with many cold and cloudy days in Chi-town, with the wind blowing in more frequently off of Lake Michigan.
Seattle is 39-25-2 UNDER, with their everyday lineup performing much like Starbucks stock. The Mariners are at the bottom of the barrel in runs scored at 3.7 per game. They have been among the worst on baseball all year for on-base percentage and are next to last in drawing walks.

Another component is the pitching the M’s have delivered. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers have a lower team ERA than Seattle, who has nine pitchers that have seen action in at least nine games with earned run average below four.

The Detroit Tigers are another club on the UNDER train, with 38-27-1 record. The Tigers situation is a little more difficult to understand until to bring out the shovel and start digging around. Detroit is a respectable 13th in runs scored at 4.8 per outing and they allow 4.5 per game. What isn’t so readily seen unless you follow this Motown team, is they have scored three runs or less 29 times, which is over 40 percent of the time they have played in 2009. This inconsistent offense has lent itself to falling below the total.

Manager Jim Leyland has three dependable starters in Jason Verlander, Edwin Jackson and rookie Rick Porcello, who have 3.71 ERA’s or less. Detroit at this writing is tied for the lead in shutouts in baseball with seven.

Part of finding winners on totals is understanding why teams play the way they do and trying to beat the oddsmakers to the punch.

Action for Thursday June 18

Paul Buck and we got taken down yesterday. I’d like to say thanks to Paul for all his fantastic plays, I hope you grabbed some winners with his plays. Yesterday’s 1-2 mark has us at 107-69-3, 60.8 percent. The Top Trend has not lost and is in afternoon action. Slick Rick is having a nice week and offers free play. The best System is 82.1 percent and is in Beantown. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday - Milwaukee swept their series against the Cleveland by scores of 14-12, 7-5 and 9-8. The total of 55 runs was the second-highest in any three-game series this year, behind the 56 runs the Orioles and Rangers combined to score when they met in Texas in the second week of the season. It was the highest run total in a three-game interleague series since 2005, when Cincinnati and Tampa Bay combined for 55 runs in a three-game Reds sweep (9-7, 11-9, 14-5).

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Florida, with a money line of +150 or more, allowing 4.8 or more runs a game on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. Over the last five years this system grades out at 78-17, 82.1 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The San Diego Padres have lost 13 consecutive interleague encounters.

Free Baseball Selection -3) We move ahead and Slick Rick is 7-3 this week and prefers the Metropolitans this evening.

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From the House of Sports - June 18

Does The Punishment Fit The Crime?

Cleveland Browns wide receiver Donte’ Stallworth pleaded guilty to DUI manslaughter and was sentenced yesterday in Florida to one month in jail. Before you go ballistic over what initially appears to be a slap-on-the-wrist miscarriage of justice, let’s take a closer look. Stallworth was also sentenced to two years’ house arrest, eight years’ probation, loss of his drivers license for life, 1,000 hours of community service and an undisclosed financial settlement with the family of the man he killed, Mario Reyes. Let’s be honest here: what good would be served by locking up Stallworth for five or ten years? At least he remained at the scene of the crime when countless others would have fled, he took responsibility and admitted his guilt, and has agreed to the Reyes family’s desire to avoid a protracted legal proceeding. Miami-Dade State Attorney Katherine Rundle emphatically stated, “He is being punished appropriately. This is what the family wanted.” Even a representative for Mothers Against Drunk Driving said the deal was the best outcome. “I think there are a lot of kids as well as adults who will listen to his message,” said Miami-Dade MADD Director Janet Mondshein. “I think he’ll do more good being out of jail and being active in prevention.” Now Stallworth must await further punishment from the NFL, usually meted out in the form of game suspensions.

Tiger Time

A fully recovered Tiger Woods can make history by winning this week’s U.S. Open in Farmingdale, NY. Playing on a course that will include THREE par-4 holes of 500 yards or more for the first time ever, Woods will try to become the first man since Curtis Strange in 1988-89 to win back-to-back Opens. Already the owner of a whopping 14 Major championships at age 33, Tiger modestly summed up the possibility of taking home the 109th Open trophy by saying, “I like my chances in any Major.”

Someone Finally Said It FINALLY!

A professional tennis coach has spoken out on an aspect of the game that we’ve felt needed to be addressed for quite some time. Nick Bollettieri believes some sort of action should be taken against touring players who GRUNT loudly during matches! “There is a need for some sort of regulation,” declared Bollettieri. “Players on both the men’s and women’s tours grunt. Something eventually needs to be done.” We couldn’t agree more, Nick. In fact, we’d like to see Maria Sharapova and other main offenders play a match with their mouths taped shut so they can’t bellow like farm animals on every serve and shot.

NBA Wipeout

No surprise here. The five NBA Finals games just shown on ABC between the Lakers and Magic recorded a viewer loss of 10% compared to last season’s matchup between the Lakers and Celtics. May not sound like much to the average Joe but to the NBA, ABC and the game advertisers, the dropoff was HUGE.

Danica, Danica...

Here’s the most interesting news we’ve heard in awhile. Even though she says she won’t make an announcement about her future in racing until after the current IndyCar Series season ends in October, Danica Patrick is supposedly gathering info about a possible switch to NASCAR! Although many Sprint Cup drivers have dismissed Patrick’s abilities with comments like, “You’ve got to DRIVE these cars, not just point ‘em straight ahead,” the fact is NASCAR is struggling in a major way this year and the addition of a mega-star like Patrick would give stock car racing a desperately needed boost in 2010.

Thoughts from the House of Sports.com.

Another Brett Favre Story- WTF?

It’s unfortunate, but how can I possibly not comment like the rest of the Free World about the antics of Number 4 (fill in jersey color). In the state of Wisconsin, Brett Favre had become the most revered Green Bay Packer since Bart Starr and even after his hissy fit with General Manager Ted Thompson last year; most were willing to let bygone’s be bygone’s and wished him luck in New Jersey.

Favre’s dreadful play at the end of last season, which played a huge part in the New York Jets missing the playoffs and Eric Mangini being fired, looked to have signaled the end of the road for the future Hall of Famer. Favre reiterated as much and only the most sarcastic of people really believed the Wrangler Jeans pitchman would come back for another season.

Much like a woman scorned and a boxer not sure when to hang them up, reports started surfacing in April, that Favre was “thinking” about coming back again. He knew his shoulder still wasn’t right, but this time he held the cards and wanted to gauge the interest of the Minnesota Vikings, the team he really wanted to play after Green Bay couldn’t wait any longer for his decision before the 2008 season.

Most folks dismissed the idea of Favre coming back, since common sense would suggest how many times can a guy retire? It ended up being “where there is smoke, there is probably fire” and the old Green and Gold hero wanted to go at it again.

The media savvy Favre will tell anyone (I do mean anyone) that he still thinks he can play at a high level, yes he’s not the same quarterback that won multiple MVP awards, nonetheless, he can contribute on what would hopefully be a Super Bowl contender.

However, in the same vein of Joan Rivers act from years ago (that would six or seven face procedures ago) “Can we talk?” anyone with an IQ over 60 can see Favre’s real intention, stick it to Thompson, coach Mike McCarthy and the Packers organization. Favre’s real or imagined obsession with what happened in Green Bay behind closed doors is unhealthy for any adult, let alone a child.

At some point you have to move on, life does go on. I once worked for a guy who I and other co-workers believed made Adolph Hitler seem likeable. After leaving his business, I swore I’d never mention or think of that man again. But in time, I realized he did teach me things I’ve been able to apply and though I’d never go out of my way to greet him in a grocery store, I ended up respecting his knowledge as it related to work.

Favre’s not reached that point and coach Brad Childress and Minnesota are willing to give #4 a purple jersey and roll the dice. When you think about, what do the Vikings have to lose?

Bookmaker.com already has Minnesota as the betting division favorite at +160 and they are with a large contingent at +900 to win the NFC. Childress knows they are not going to Super Bowl with Tarvaris Jackson under center on a regular basis, which is why they signed Sage Rosenfels. The Houston backup performed well when starter Matt Schaub went down, however the more he played the less effective he became in 2008.

The Vikings thought he was the best available signal caller that fit into salary structure and they believe they have enough pieces on the squad as a whole that they just need above average, not great quarterback play to succeed. Minnesota has Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor to take handoffs, behind a solid offensive line, which utilizes zone-blocking scheme that suits the runner’s talents.

The Minnesota receivers are now at least average, with Bernard Berrian a big play receiver and Bobby Wade serviceable in the slot. Percy Harvon brings ample home run potential and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe developed as useable seam threat.

Defensively, the Vikes are as good as anyone, ranked No.1 against the run and improved markedly against the pass. This group might not be as effective early if tackles Kevin and Pat Williams are suspended for first four games, however you don’t make the Super Bowl based on first four games of the season.

Favre would be playing in offense he already knows, with Childress and his good buddy Darrell Bevell calling the shots. What does Minnesota lose by bringing Favre in?

The risks though are many for the Vikings. Favre has faded each of the last two seasons, as his aging body doesn’t recover as quickly. Granted, he would not have as many cold weather games in late November in December playing in the Metrodome, yet if the Minny makes the playoffs with a 9-7 record that means hitting the road to a likely cold weather destination. Last I checked, Astroturf or Fieldturf is still extremely hard, which means every hit Favre takes will be a harder shock to the system.

You have to know Minnesota fans will be in the state of shock, seeing the guy with the funny name being on their team, after literally hating him for a long time. If the Vikings get to or win the Super Bowl this next season, the front office would deserve all the accolades thrown their way for signing the Kiln, Mississippi product. But what happens if it doesn’t workout? Minnesota was in the playoffs last year and the reason for signing Rosenfels was to move beyond being one and done in the postseason. Childress has enough detractors already; he could fill up about half of the 10,000 lakes with people not on his side.

And what about Favre, when asked about playing this season on HBO’s new Joe Buck show, he paused and said “Maybe”. He went on to add, “I know people are tired of it, really,” Favre said about his drama queen act over retirement. “My intentions are not to — although it’s good for you (the media)—create controversy.”

It did seem odd that Favre used the “we” in talking about Minnesota as possible destination. Maybe it was honest slip, or something already in his subconscious. It Favre fails; he’ll be hated even more in Minnesota and mocked in Wisconsin and most other parts of the country for not knowing when to let go. If he succeeds, he can pump out his chest and have that infectious smile and know he just stuck it to the Packers.

Whatever Brett.

Paul Buck Goes for Number 12 in a Row

The only thing better than a 3-0 day at 3DW is Paul Buck’s remarkable streak. He’s hit 11 in a row and like his chances for 12. Today’s Best System is 89.5 percent and is presented in article form. The Top Trend is perfect, will it stay that way? Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday - The Blue Jays rallied for a tying run in the ninth inning and five runs in the 10th in an 8-3 win at Philadelphia. It was the Phillies fifth loss this season in which they led in the ninth inning or later. That's the highest total in the majors in 2009, and a total reversal from last season when the Phillies posted a 92-0 mark when leading in the ninth inning or extras.

Free Baseball System-1) See Minnesota Twins article below.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Jeff Suppan and the Milwaukee Brewers are 8-0 after a game where he did not walk a batter over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck owns the record for the greatest streak of Free Winners here at 3Daily Winners and tries to make it an even dozen with Detroit Tigers on the banks of the Mississippi tonight.

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Minnesota Twins feasting in interleague action

Based on history, maybe the upper Midwest franchise, whose state borders Canada, should put in for moving to the National League and cause a reshuffling of the teams in Major League Baseball. Minnesota has won the World Series twice, in 1987 and again in 1991, before free agency removed the age of innocence. The Twins are and always will a small market team, but it has never stopped them from competing and they continue to be in the thick of the race in the AL Central, virtually every year.

Another characteristic of Minnesota baseball is their dominance in interleague play. The Twins have the second-best record in baseball since this began in 1997, trailing only the New York Yankees. With last’s night’s 8-2 win over Pittsburgh, Minnesota is 6-1 in interleague play in 2009, which follows the pattern they has established over the last 5+ years.

Since 2004, the Twinkies are tasty 66-31 (68 percent) against their National League counterparts and in the last three years, they are Richardo Montalban “Marvelous” 31-12, 72 percent. This season they are crushing those from the senior circuit by 3.6 runs per game (6 to 2.4).

It’s really no mystery that leads to Minnesota’s success against the National League, the teams from the other league can’t hit Twins pitching. On the season, all teams score 4.6 runs per game against manager Ron Gardenhire’s club; however the NL lineups have scored only 2.4 per game, which is noted by them allowing nine runs in last four interleague contests, all victories.

With catcher Joe Mauer’s four base-knocks leading the16-hit parade, the Twins won handily last night and Mauer’s sick .429 batting average will start to make people take notice, even if it’s only the middle of June.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Twins as -183 money line favorites against Pittsburgh and why not, as they fall into one of the best super situations that has occurred all year.

Play On all favorites with money line of -175 to -250, after allowing four runs or less, four straight games, against opponent after a loss by four runs or more.

That is a simple and straight forward system with astonishing results. Over the last five seasons, there have been 51 winners out of 57 situations (89.5 percent). The winning margin has been almost as good as Minnesota’s in interleague action at 2.9 per game.

Let’s not also forget about how Minnesota plays when they receive exceptional pitching, with 7-0 record after allowing four runs or less six straight games. They will start Francisco Liriano (2-7, 5.99 ERA), who is finally showing signs of turning season around, allowing four total runs in last two starts, which is more than he can say for his mound opponent Ian Snell. The Pirates right-hander is 1-7 with 5.25 ERA and hasn’t won since April 18. In fact, Snell and the Bucs are 2-14 in road games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.

No doubt the price is a trifle high on Minnesota; nevertheless, the results suggest another Twins killing.

The 2009 U.S. Open Preview

The favorite for this year’s United States Open championship is – surprise, Tiger Woods at +125. El Tigre showed the world he is pretty all the way back with his brilliant come from behind win at the Memorial. After not trusting his surgically repaired knee, Woods showed himself and everyone else he’s back, as his previously erratic driver nailed 49 of 56 fairways at Jack Nicklaus’ tournament.

The Open returns to Bethpage Black, after being highly successful there in 2002. This is a public golf course that people arrive at 4 AM in the morning to secure an open tee time. Make no mistakes, this is a great track and it will play 200 yards longer then it did seven years ago, meaning you have to get off the tee or be incredibility accurate with long irons, hybrids and fairway woods.

Is Tiger a shoo-in to win his 15th major?

Though Woods has had great success on public golf courses like Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach, he’s not a lock, despite playing well. This week’s wild card in hardly a longshot, (second betting choice at +1000) but Phil Mickelson has many hats to wear this week. Lefty was a tremendous crowd favorite here in 2002 and that doesn’t figure to change this year, especially with what has gone on with his wife Amy’s breast cancer diagnosis.

Though many golf pros don’t like Phil’s act, New Yorker’s embraced him immediately, consider it like a Mets and Yankees thing. Woods is like the Yankees, big and powerful and always lets you know who is in charge. Mickelson plays to the crowd and though the second best player in the world, he’ll always be in Tiger’s shadow, making him the classic underdog.

Will Mickelson have the patience to play 72 holes of golf under control, with what is swirling around in his head? The crowd will help, but it seems unlikely.

Padraig Harrington (+4000) won the last two major titles of 2008 and has worked to get better; however his swing adjustments have not panned out to date. Angel Cabrera (+7500) won The Masters in overtime in April and is wholly capable of putting up black numbers or shooting 79 twice to start The Open. Sergio Garcia (+4000) is playing with broken heart, having split up with Greg Norman’s daughter. Just wait till he gets within earshot of a New Yorker with a few Bud Light’s in his belly. As Mr. T once said, “I pity the fool.”

Players with the right game or playing well have to be strongly considered. Jim Furyk (+1500) is always a threat and tends to hang around the leaderboard at most majors with is steady play and is solid head to head wager. Geoff Ogilvy (+2000) and Sean O’Hair (+4000) have the length needed and are stable personality-wise to go through the grind that is the U.S. Open. One player that sticks out is Paul Casey (+2500), three wins (two in Europe) this year and a batch of other top finishes. Steve Stricker has played as consistently well as anyone on tour the last 18 months and the same no-name feel another Madison, WI. golfer by the name of Andy North had, being a two-time Open champion. (Ironically, North’s only two wins on the PGA Tour)

In looking over the head-to-head matchups, found a few that will be on my list of wagers at DiamondSportsbook.com.

Steve Stricker -220 over Adam Scott
Retief Goosen -105 over Sergio Garcia
Paul Casey -130 over Angel Cabrera
Vijay Singh -115 over Ernie Els

The U. S. Open is the sternest test in golf. If you like a player who is capable of being a “birdie machine”, save your money. This major is won by players who have the mental capacity to grind through 18 holes, four consecutive days. The course is set up to ensure par is a good score on every hole. The rough was believed to be a little too long right off the fairway seven years ago and Mike Davis of the USGA, the person who sets up the Open courses, went to graduated levels of rough, too truly punish the player who hits it wide.

The greens will be lightning fast, though relatively flat. Professional players are used to seeing breaks and will sometimes “over-read” these greens, believing there is more break than it looks.
Since Davis has taken over course management, the U.S. Open has become watchful again and the theatre spectacular. Expect more of the same in New York starting Thursday.

Tuesday Plays and Updated Rankings

The balls were flying out of AT&T Park last night, thus we lost our only play. Come right back with a perfect Trend that is a little different. Our Top System is a doubleheader at 84.8 percent and Paul Buck goes for yet another winner. Good Luck.

Sorry to be so late had deadline to make and got in long discussion. 3Daily Winners update of monitored plays.

Final NBA #4 Free Sports Monitor
Final NBA #5 The Sports Eye (regular season)

Current MLB
#3 The Sports Eye
#6 Free Sports Monitor
#8 Cappers Watchdog

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams, who are below average AL hitting teams with .265 or less batting average, against a good NL starting pitcher (ERA of 3.70 or lower), who are cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. Two teams from the AL Central fit this play and they are the Tigers and White Sox. (39-7, 84.8 percent)

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Boston Red Sox are 11-0 vs. poor defensive catchers allowing 0.85 or more stolen bases per game this season. (Thanks Statfox)

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck, after a day of relaxing goes for 11 in a row with the Texas Rangers in Lone Star shootout.

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Baseball Betting info you can use

The Florida Marlins swept Toronto on the road over the weekend and are 4-2 in interleague play in 2009. The Marlins are the top OVER team in baseball at 35-27-3 (56.5 percent) and have a number of atypical numbers that should get every sports bettor thinking. The Fish lead Major League baseball in striking out the most and their pitchers strike out the most batters, adding to natural air conditioning at Landshark Stadium when Florida is home or playing away games.

Florida’s home stadium is considered an almost neutral ballpark for hitters and pitchers, yet Marlins relievers have 5.78 ERA at home and 1.98 ERA on the road. The Florida bullpen has blown eight of 14 save attempts in the home white uniforms yet have converted eight of nine in traveling grays.

With so much talk in recent years about the importance of a quality bullpen, what gets lost is what solid starting staff can do for a team. The San Francisco Giants had the oldest team in baseball and knew they had to become younger and restock the farm system after years of trying to surround Barry Bonds with veteran players trying to win division titles. The strength of the team had become its young starting pitching, with the likes of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.

The everyday lineup would become a work in progress; nevertheless, playing in a pitcher’s park, pitching and defense would have to carry the Giants for now. San Fran is the fifth best bet in baseball at +6.1 units and 34-29 on the year. They have accomplished this despite being 28th in runs scored and on-base percentage and dead last in home runs (36).

The laid-back Lincecum (6-1, 2.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) has pitched about as expected and Cain, after dropping some weight, has really come into his own (9-1, 2.39, 1.26). Veterans Randy Johnson and Barry Zito have had rocky outings, but have given the team a chance to win as often as not. Only Jonathan Sanchez has been a real disappointment at 2-6. Manager Bruce Bochy has also had the luxury of trotting out the same group of five pitchers all season, a real rarity.

The San Francisco bullpen has pitched very well of late with 1.29 ERA in last seven games, moving up to eight overall. With the starters taking the pressure off the relievers, Bochy is able to go into late innings with set-up men and closer in place, making everyone more productive, explaining why the Giants have won 14 of last 19, despite not much run support.

Maybe Peter Coors of Coors Brewing is right, there is something in the water in the Rocky Mountains. The Colorado Rockies have again put together one of those out of nowhere streaks, with 11 consecutive wins and are within a game of .500 at 31-32 (+0.9). What was the cause and effect for such a drastic turnaround? The players were forced to look in the mirror after Clint Hurdle was jettisoned as manager.

"A lot of us realized that it wasn't him that wasn't out there executing," pitcher Aaron Cook said. The staff ace realized he was among those who was not performing, as one of the most extreme groundball pitchers in baseball was having too many baseball get air under them and getting hit hard. In his last three starts, Cook (5-3, 4.26, 1.39) has given six total runs in 21 innings and surrendered three walks over that period.

Collectively, the Rockies pitchers have not surrendered more than four runs in a single game during this scalding streak and the batters have started ripping the cover off the ball scoring 6.6 runs per game. Colorado has picked up a stunning +13.8 units during this stretch, giving streak-riders plenty to smile about.

Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh are next to visit this team on a Rocky Mountain high, the Rocks are worth watching for what direction they will go once they finally suffer a loss.

Earlier, mentioned the maturation of Matt Cain and another pitcher that has found a groove (a deep one at that) is Detroit’s Justin Verlander. Last year’s disastrous season (11-17, 4.84) had some wondering what direction the talented hard-throwing right-hander was headed. His first four starts brought back those same questions, yielding 21 earned runs in 22 innings. However, the words of new pitching coach Rick Knapp started to sink in and on April 27 at home against the Yankees, Verlander pitched seven shutout innings, with nine K’s and no walks. Knapp slowed down Verlander’s delivery and suddenly pitches that were up in the zone, were back down, with far greater control. The confidence returned and the speed variation on the breaking pitches was being spotted again.

The 26-year has won his last seven decisions and the Tigers are 8-2 when #35 takes the ball since his fourth start of the year. Verlander has been so dominant in last nine starts; he has 1.10 ERA and leads the American League in hitters swing and missing with 182. (Thanks, Inside Edge) Detroit is 7-1 (+5.4 units) when Verlander starts and he is the only starting pitcher to break triple digits on the radar gun twice in 2009.

A what do you think Monday

Our good fortune continues with 3-1 day, giving us 9-1 record the last three days and we continue to roll over two months with 103-66-3, 60.9 percent mark. Because of light sked, Top Trend will be only official play, though the Best System is pretty darn good at 34-9 considering only two games. Good Luck.

What I thought about yesterday – Sunday was one of those confusing betting days. For those that get my Free email picks, I was officially 1-2. (Sign up upper right of page if you would like to receive) I also mentioned I liked two other games (Florida and the Dodgers -winners), plus I actually liked the White Sox (winner) also. It was much like an NFL Sunday, where you have so many plays and just not that many games to choose from. For the most part, you know it is much easier seemingly to go 0-6 than 6-0, which is the reason I decided to be choosy. Seeing I’m going pretty well this season, I should have just played all five or six and let the results fall where they may. What makes it hard for me; I just don’t think that way and get skittish about playing 40 percent of the games on the board. Tell me about what you do in that spot.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like the Brewers, who are average NL offensive team scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against an average AL starter (ERA from 4.30 to 5.70), in the first half of the season. Since 2004, this system checks in at 34-9, 79.1 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The San Francisco Giants are 10-0 UNDER in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 since 1997.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck is going to sit out today and has hit 37 of last 50 plays, including 10 in a row here at 3Daily Winners. Check back tomorrow for his next Free Play.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Milwaukee and Cleveland – Just like the old days

Has it been this long already? The Milwaukee Brewers came into existence thanks to the failure of then Seattle Pilots and opened for business in 1970. Milwaukee at that time was an American League franchise, before moving to the National League in 1998, causing the imbalance of teams in each league. For many years, the Brew Crew and the Cleveland Indians were division rivals and they will renew acquaintances on ESPN near the shores of Lake Erie Monday night.

These teams also share bit of history, but only in the movies. The fictional movie “Major League” was about the Cleveland Indians, however, most of the stadium and game scenes were filmed in Milwaukee, at the old County Stadium (which is part of the parking lot for Miller Park), as were several other scenes shot at various locations around the city. Even long-time Brewers radio announcer Bob Uecker, was the infamous “Harry Doyle”, the voice of the Wahoos. (Thanks, Paramount Pictures)

These teams have not met since 2006, also in Cleveland and have faced one another just once since 2001. Dating back to 1998, when they started competing as interleague opponents, Milwaukee holds an 8-7 edge.

Milwaukee (34-29) has been slumping of late, losing six of seven and nine of last 13. The Brewer bats have been the reason for their failures, scoring more than four runs just once in those defeats. The Crew has lost their last four interleague road games and are +113 money line underdogs according to DiamondSportsbook.com, thanks in part to starter Dave Bush (3-3, 4.58 ERA, 1.258 WHIP). Though 2-2 on the road this season (Milwaukee 2-3 in his starts), Bush is a notoriously dreadful road pitcher and has a laundry list of bad numbers.

· Bush is 8-25 in road games in the first half of the season. (Team's Record)
· Bush is 21-49 in road games. (Team's Record)
· Bush is 10-30 as a road underdog of +100 to +150. (Team's Record)
· Bush is 6-21 as a road underdog of +100 to +125. (Team's Record)
· Bush is 1-14 in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game. (Team's Record)

Those pathetic numbers would normally make one believe Milwaukee should be an even bigger underdog, but not against this Cleveland club. The Indians have started slow and kept right at the same pace. Mediocre starting pitching, wildly inconsistent offense and closer Kerry Wood blowing a number of saves early, have Cleveland (29-36) fighting to get back to .500.

Only Washington has surrendered as many runs as the Tribe and its not a mere coincidence no team has walked as many batters in the American League as have the Indians. (Harry Doyle- “Just a bit outside”) Cleveland is 3-8 at Progressive Field against teams with winning records and 3-8 as favorites of -150 or less.

One of the brighter spots this season has been pitcher Carl Pavano (6-5, 5.40, 1.344). For the most part Pavano has exceed expectations, with two starts in which he allowed nine runs, directly relating to blowing up his ERA, including his last against Kansas City. With the total at Un9.5, Cleveland has won six of Pavano’s seven starts when the total is between 9 -10.5.
Milwaukee and Bush are 11-2 UNDER as visitors in night games over the last two seasons, while Cleveland is 17-5 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher who gives up one or more long balls a start during the same period.

Pavano should throw first pitch a little after 7 Eastern and the Tribe is 29-15 playing on Monday’s over the last three years.

Let's makes this Sunday Super

Back to back 3-0 days has me feeling a little frisky and will present a System with two plays today that is 86 percent. Paul Buck is filling up his pockets with cash with continual winners and has another Free Play. Though hardly a perfect Trend, 21-5 is awfully attractive and worth consideration. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – It was another tough night for Armando Galarraga, who allowed four runs in two-plus innings in his loss to the Pirates. Galarraga was 3-0 with a 1.85 earned run average in four starts in April but he's 0-7 with a 7.54 ERA in nine starts since then, allowing at least one home run in each game. Galarraga is the first major-league pitcher to give up home runs in nine consecutive games this season.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, who are below average AL batting average of .265 or less, against a solid NL starting pitcher (ERA of 3.70 or less), who hitting .250 or worse over their last 20 games. This system rocks at 37-6, 86 percent and yields two offerings, play against Texas and Oakland today.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Boston Red Sox are 21-5 vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck nailed three winners yesterday and likes the Cubs to win at least one against the Twinkies.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Magic the favorite in uphill battle

Based on Friday’s accounts of Game 4 between Los Angeles and Orlando, Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy should have been the lead story at the top of every newscast and .com website, since he alone is the reason Orlando failed to tie the series at 2-2 and reportedly killed his team’s chance to be NBA champions. One problem with that thinking, it’s often incorrect. Did Van Gundy error, likely so, he should have had his players foul at almost any point in the final 10.8 seconds, but give Los Angeles a ton of credit, as they perfectly executed out of bounds play that led to Derrick Fisher’s game-tying shot in regulation.

Van Gundy didn’t have the luxury of calling timeout when Jameer Nelson decided to play zone against Fisher at most critical point, in a game known for man defense. Van Gundy played a hunch and he’s being crucified, but let’s not lose sight of another important factor, with 32 seconds remaining in overtime, the score was tied at 91. At that juncture, both teams were still in position to take the game, the Lakers snatched it and the Magic did not.

Van Gundy should be blamed for playing Nelson, when his best option was Rafer Alston, good or bad. It was evident from the first time Nelson took the court in the series, two to three minute stints would be the most useful way to utilize player who hadn’t seen the court in four months. Van Gundy’s trust or lack of in Alston betrayed him and his team fell to 40-12 and 29-23 ATS as home.

Orlando is 21-8 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent, but unless they do all the little things (keep in mind everything counts), they won’t improve that record. Reports had Dwight Howard choking for missing two free throws late; however he just reverted to being Superman shooting kryptonite as he had done much of the season. Missing 15 of 37 attempts from the charity stripe will cause almost any team to lose and the 17 turnovers led directly to 16 L.A. points.

The Magic find themselves in this predicament because they failed to match Lakers intensity in second half and scored a grand total of 42 points in last 29 minutes. Orlando is 14-5 ATS when playing with two days rest this season and has to play like a team that is absolutely desperate. Feed the ball into Howard, who must be decisive and go to the basket with authority. When he has the ball for more then two seconds, evil events often occur (seven turnovers in last contest), Howard has to be powerful and demanding.

Van Gundy has to somehow convince Alston he’s his guy (good luck) and get him mentally back into focus. Rashard Lewis is the only player in the Finals that makes Lamar Odom look a bastion of mental rock-solid stability. Wouldn’t you like to know where these players go during games? It appears Lewis should have sugar levels tested frequently throughout any given.

Orlando has again opened as three-point favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com to send the series back to other coast, with total at 198.5. The Magic have liked Sunday’s well enough, sporting a 9-3 ATS record and are 9-1 UNDER after a game where they made 60 percent of their free throws or less this season.

What makes this a challenging wager is the Lakers mindset. They haven’t always brought A-game on the road this postseason. The purple-clad team from L.A. has been a brilliant road underdog, with 11-3 ATS record this season and Kobe Bryant assuredly will have his mad face on, trying to win a championship and not have to share the limelight with a star player of equal status, giving him an argosy of tales and memories to cherish. The Lake Show hasn’t been as profitable on Sunday’s with 3-7 ATS record and is 13-3-1 UNDER on this day of the week.

It will be interesting to watch Van Gundy, does he continue to play his hunches or go more by the book, unless the players execute, either way can be wrong. Game 5 starts at just after 8 Eastern, with the underdog now 8-1 against the spread when these teams compete against one another.