Vikings at Saints Preview

Brett Favre vs. Drew Brees. That sets the stage for what should be a highly entertaining NFC Championship encounter. In interviews this week, both quarterbacks have expressed the belief they were destined to be on these particular teams after believing they were no longer wanted by a previous employer.

Favre has enjoyed the ride this season, being in a place we wanted after rightfully or wrongly feeling his services were no longer required in Green Bay after losing NFC title game two years ago. Whether it’s the motivation of winning another Super Bowl and going out on top like John Elway did (something he’s always craved) or sticking it to the Packers organization, or both, the 40-year old quarterback has played with a sense of urgency, knowing his football clock is ticking.

Brees left San Diego with the organization believing they could not be a consistent winner with the former Purdue quarterback. However, Brees signed with New Orleans became a huge part of a community that suffered unfathomable strife from Hurricane Katrina and found the right coach who could develop his abilities and bring out the creative aspects of his game.

Minnesota (13-4, 10-6-1 ATS) is 3.5-point underdog with total of 53.5, which is the highest since Atlanta and Minnesota in 1999 title tilt (55). The Vikings were 8-4-1 ATS against the NFC this year and as important as Favre is, Adrian Peterson could well be the most important player for the Vikings in this contest. A.P. has gone eight games without busting past 100 yards rushing and most believe it’s because the offense is more based around No. 4 and he has audibled out of a good number of running plays this season. Talking to a scout who watches film on all NFL teams, he’s noted Peterson has been less patient in following blocks this season, often making poor decisions trying to break longer runs.

Minnesota would be foolish to not give Peterson a large number of carries against a defense that surrenders 4.6 yards per carry. Peterson can’t get caught up in the emotion of the moment and forget ball protection (six lost fumbles this year) in trying to make 50-yard run when four or five is all he can get. Peterson and Chester Taylor have to think averages against the Saints. Two runs means third and one giving Favre lots of options against New Orleans defense.

Given the listed total, this is presumed to be a touchdown game. Favre will have his work cut out for him since New Orleans (14-3, 9-8 ATS) had the NFL’s best red zone pass defense. This is where clever play calling and execution is tantamount for club that is 7-15 ATS against teams with winning home record.

If the Vikings can’t generate the same pass rush as they did against Dallas (three of the four D-linemen missed two practices this week), the “Who Dat” talk will begin early. Brees has more weapons of mass destruction than Iraq ever had. Minnesota has their best cover corner Antoine Winfield hobbling; mainly playing slot receivers in the nickel and rookie middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley can be influenced by the flow of the play and taken out of position. The Saints are 10-2-1 ATS after covering the spread and will attack the Vikings at their weakest points.

In reviewing New Orleans this season two aspects standout when they play their best. The Saints are able to run the ball and they use Jeremy Shockey a lot in the first 20 minutes. That’s not to say Brees can’t have a big game using other players, however peak effectiveness has occurred when this pattern is established.

The Saints offensive line had problems with the Cowboys pass rush when they suffered their first defeat of the season, which they can’t allow the league’s top sacking unit to have the same type of success or they lose fourth game in last five and end the season 1-6 ATS in final seven contests.

New Orleans has lost and failed to cover last four meetings vs. Minnesota, with each going Over the total. The Saints are 11-3 OVER off a home win over the last three seasons while Minny is 7-0 UNDER in road games after a win by 14 or more points during the same time span.

For believers of fate, watch the outcome of Colts game, since the last seven times the two top seeds have played in Conference Championship contests, not once have both advanced to the game with roman numerals.

Jets at Colts Preview

Normally this time of year in professional football, everyone is talking about how important quarterback play is and how the teams matchup. Well, New Yorkers are often known for their bravado and as it turns out the Jets have the perfect coach to make believers out of the players and fans alike. Rex Ryan may not understand the mathematical workings of the NFL playoff system (after losing to Atlanta he said his team had almost no chance to make the postseason) but he’s able to rally the troops with the familiar “us against the world” refrain, used expertly by his father Buddy Ryan and George Allen before him.

It’s the clichéd “respect card” that has been reformulated in green and white by coach Ryan, winning seven of last eight (7-1 ATS) which has his players believing him like the pied piper. Ryan’s conviction had him making comments like New York should be favored for the Super Bowl and his logic is correct based on statistical information.

The Jets (11-7 SU & ATS) have the best defense in the NFL and attack opposing quarterbacks like a siege of numerous battalions. While seven or sometimes eight Jets are on the fly, a confident group of pass defenders led by Darelle Revis back them up. The Flyboys cornerback sticks to receivers better than Super Glue and helps the secondary provide better coverage than Safe Auto’s Justin Case. New York is 8-2 ATS on the road against teams with winning home record.

New York also runs the ball better than anyone in the NFL averaging 172 yards per game. Between the defense and running game that is the foundation of Ryan’s belief system, OC Brian Shottenheimer is on a roll as play-caller, protecting Mark Sanchez and calling the right plays which the Jets have been able to execute.

The Indianapolis Colts organization is completely different. They give away undefeated season in hopes of winning a bigger prize. The Colts (15-2, 11-6 ATS) let their play on field do the talking, however don’t for second think they haven’t been listening to all the huffing and puffing coming out of the Big Apple. A person not familiar with professional football might surmise the Jets are the favored and better team by reading newspaper and online accounts of the AFC Championship. Indianapolis has been to a Super Bowl in the last 39 years and actually won something, New York can’t make the same claim. The Colts have to be simmering in listening to all the talk.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Indianapolis as eight-point favorites with total of 40 and they are 8-2 ATS after one or more consecutive wins against the spread this season. Home favorites of seven to nine points in conference championships are 11-3 ATS in last 14 outings. While Peyton Manning will be blitzed extensively, he’s arguably the smartest quarterback in the game. His impeccable film study allows him to find and edge or two against any defense.

Expect the Colts to test Revis early with Reggie Wayne. Though Revis has stopped virtually every top receiver he has faced this season, Wayne is slightly different type of pass catcher, not a home run threat per se, his real expertise is running crossing routes, which is more difficult for any defender to cover. The Jets safeties are average in pass coverage and Indy won’t make the same mistake San Diego did with Antonio Gates. Because a tight end is often the hot read in blitzes, Dallas Clark will shorten his routes and with film study, see were the weakness are in the Jets secondary, look for him to have big game for Colts who have covered last four games as 3.5 to 10-point favorites.

The Colts defensive run numbers are not imposing; however they only allowed 17.7 points a game a Lucas Oil Stadium this season. Their goal is to force third down and five and longer all day long.

Sanchez has played better in each of two playoff games, but can his teammates protect from being too excited being 60 minutes away from Super Bowl? The offensive line will gain rushing yards with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene toting the pigskin, the question is can they score once on the Indianapolis side of the field. Gang Green is a splendid 7-3 SU and ATS on the road and riding the crest of emotion. New York’s defense will look to stone a meager Colts running game and try to contain Wayne and Clark and smack around young receivers Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon, causing them to lose concentration in the moment to stall Indy’s offense.

This game has Under written all over it and the line has dropped precipitously from opening 41points. The Colts are 37-21 UNDER when they rush for 50 to 75 yards, which is a distinct possibility and the Jets are 22-9 UNDER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt. A system to consider is playing on home teams when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points and they out-score opponents by seven or more points a game, after allowing nine points or less last game. (29-8)

Super Saturday, I hope?

Let’s start the day with an excellent system that plays out in the SEC and is 33-6 against the spread. Let’s follow that up with a perfect trend in the ACC. Then let’s polish it off with a piping hot sports bettor in college basketball with his top play of the day. Good Luck

What I thought last night – My basketball plays this season have been like one-legged man in an ass kicking contest. Wow has it been dreadful, looking for huge day today.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like Kentucky after eight or more consecutive wins with a win percentage over 80 percent, playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). This awesome system is 33-6 ATS, 84.6 percent the last five seasons, including perfect 4-0 this year.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Maryland Terps are 12-0 ATS in home games after a game with 51 or more rebounds, winning by over 20 points per game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Sal, unlike yours truly is 20-5 in college hoops for his last 25 plays and is on Nevada.

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Saturday College Buckets

Men’s college basketball takes over on Saturday’s for the next several months with a boatload of action for sports bettors and those that like to handicap. The coverage is coast to coast and goes from morning until past midnight depending on your location. CBS Sports has a Big Ten battle and two interesting non-conference clashes. ESPN has its usual Big East confrontation early in the day and a top shelf ACC encounter in prime time. This week we also take a look at an unusual matchup in the Colonial Conference, with one team expected to contend and another trying to work its way up. It promises to be a super way to enjoy a Saturday. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com. (Note: Though childish, take a look where Duke player's left foot is. He probably left the Wake Forest player with a pair of blue devils)

Michigan State at Minnesota (-2,138.5) 12:00E CBS

Kudos to coach Tom Izzo, understanding his team and the chemistry involved after finishing runner up for the national championship. Michigan State (16-3, 7-11 ATS) was lacking a spark early in the year, as several of last year’s players had not shown improvement. Izzo witnessed sophomore forward Draymond Green was his most consistent player, but felt he might get lost as a starter. Instead, Izzo made Green his sixth man, which has light a fire for the Spartans virtually every game he’s entered. Green rebounds, blocks shots, creates steals and scores, making him an instant success every time he hits the floor. The Spartans are 18-7-2 ATS on the road off of three straight home games.

Minnesota (12-6, 9-8 ATS) has played frenetic defense all season, holding teams to 38.5 percent shooting, something you would expect from a Tubby Smith coach squad. It’s never flashy, but extremely frustrating for opponents trying to find open shots and passing lanes. Minny is 8-1 ATS at home when opponents convert 31 to 37 percent of three’s. The Golden Gophers have been bolstered on offense with Blake Hoffarber who has regained his shooting touch, especially from beyond the arc. He and Lawrence Westbrook will need big games to slow down Spartans.

The Spartans are 7-3 SU at “The Barn”, with 5-3-2 ATS record.

Villanova at St. John’s (+6.148.5) 12:00E ESPN

Though seldom mentioned with the coaching elites, it’s time Jay Wright starts getting his props nationally as one of the finest coaches in college basketball. He recruits young men with a certain type of work ethic, they leave Villanova (17-1, 13-4 ATS) a far better player than when they arrived and as any opposing coach will honestly admit, watching film on Nova is a treat with the intensity and execution they play with. Senior Scottie Reynolds is the tougher than nails leader who gives the Wildcats a chance to win each time out. Villanova is 8-2 ATS against teams with winning record.

This was supposed to be the year. Coach Norm Roberts had preached patience as he collected more talent for St. John’s (12-6, 8-6-1 ATS) and this season the Red Storm were to move up the Big East pecking order. With a number of good non-conference outings, expectations were percolating, however a 0-3 start turned the attention on Roberts and where the program is truly headed. St. John’s players openly have questioned each other’s commitment to winning, which meant unless they can made something positive happen immediately, it was setting up to be another sorry season for the Johnnies. The St. John’s have responded by winning two of last three and upset of Villanova could be a signature win. The Red Storm is 13-3 ATS on playing on Saturday’s.

Villanova has won seven of last eight (6-2 ATS) encounters.

Ohio State at West Virginia (-6,133) 2:00E CBS

The Buckeyes (14-5, 10-9 ATS) takes a break from Big Ten action to make the trek to Morgantown. Ohio State has responded with playing better basketball with the return of their best player Evan Turner. His inspired play has led to the Buckeyes playing better a team, with each teammate being back in their role before Turner suffered back injury. Coach Thad Matta has been tinkering with different defenses and his skill will be called into question against diverse West Virginia squad. The Buckeyes are 82-35 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of shots attempts.

The Mountaineers (14-3, 6-10 ATS) have proven two things this season, when they come prepared to play, they are Top 10 team and when they don’t they are as beatable as any other college basketball squad. Coach Bob Huggins demands defensive intensity and when West Virginia players deliver, the offense works much more fluidly. After losing to Purdue earlier, West Virginia has opportunity to extract Big Ten revenge on the Buckeyes. The ‘Teers are 21-10 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more three-point shots a game on the season after 15 or more contests.

West Virginia is 10-3 after a victory with 4-8 ATS mark. Ohio State is 11-1 UNDER against the Big East.

Texas at Connecticut (+3, 147) 4:00E CBS

No one can claim this talent-laden Texas (17-1, 8-6 ATS) team has taken the easy way out scheduling wise this season. Besides playing in the arduous Big 12, the Longhorns have gone out of their way to take on some the best schools from the top conferences and will again to play Connecticut. The Texas roster is a puzzle for opposing coaches to figure out. Focus on Damion James and Dexter Pittman and Avery Bradley or Gary Johnson can carve an opponent up. The other aspect that shines thru, the Horns players seem to genuinely enjoying playing with one another and share the glory. Texas is 14-0 and 8-2 ATS in non-conference games this campaign.

Evidently Big East play isn’t challenging enough for Connecticut (12-6, 6-9-1 ATS), they have to find a team that is one of the finest in the country to break up the conference slate. All kidding aside, coach Jim Calhoun ( now on medical leave) has played encounters like this the last several years as a refocusing distraction, to test the mental awareness of his players with February not far away. For the most part, the Huskies have played about as expected; nonetheless having Ater Majok and Charles Okwandu elevate their play improves UConn considerably. Connecticut is 16-8 ATS in January games since 2007.

Texas comes to Connecticut off its first loss of the season and hasn’t played well this month, with 0-5 spread record and barely beating Texas A&M CC 76-70. The Longhorns are 1-9-1 against clubs with a winning home record. The Huskies are 9-3 in non-conference action, with sordid 2-8 ATS record.

Old Dominion at William & Mary (+4.5,125) 7:00E WSKY

The standings in the Colonial Conference have many of the usual suspects, however one is different. William & Mary (14-4, 9-4-1 ATS) has been hanging around the upper echelons of the league this season, with coach Tony Shaver’s club displaying supreme confidence. Point guard Quinn McDowell has been the catalyst, playing close to mistake-free as the Tribe has the fewest turnovers in the conference. William & Mary’s confidence comes from how they have played on road where they are 7-3 and 7-2 ATS. Off their defeat at Virginia Commonwealth, the Tribe is 7-1 ATS following a SU loss.

Old Dominion (15-5, 6-9-1 ATS) was the preseason pick to win the Colonial and they look the part in a three-way tied for first place. The Monarchs play superior defense like always (55.5 points per game) and are the league’s top rebounding team. Though the season has gone well, coach Blaine Taylor made a lineup switch, putting guard Kent Bazemore into the starting lineup and the results have been fantastic. At 6’4, Bazemore gives ODU more size in the backcourt and his length creates defensive issues for smaller opponents. The Monarchs are 11-3 off a SU win, with underwhelming 4-7 ATS mark this season, which reflects the past since they are 8-20 ATS after a triumph.

Old Dominion is 8-4 and 7-5 ATS at the Williamsburg, VA campus and the visiting team has covered five in a row.

Duke at Clemson (+1,146) 9:00E ESPN

You can bet coach Mike Krzyzewski has worked Duke extra hard in preparation for prime time affair at Clemson. Coach K remembers firsthand how the Tigers can play at Littlejohn Coliseum, losing 74-47 their last year. He’s also seen what Clemson did to North Carolina, building 20-point lead in the first eight minutes of the game and cruising to victory over the Tar Heels. That is why the play of guard Jon Scheyer is so critical, keeping Duke (15-3, 11-6 ATS) from playing at too frenzied a pace. The Dukies are 8-19 ATS in road games vs. clubs outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points a game after 15 or more tries.

Backed with its home crowd, the Tigers memories are fresh from being embarrassed at Duke on Jan. 3, losing 74-53, totaling just 12 points in the first 20 minutes. Senior forward Trevor Booker is the energy of this team and its most important player. When Clemson (15-4, 9-7 ATS) has to set up offense, allowing Booker to at least touch the ball, good things usually follow. He’s skilled around the basket and finds open shooters off the bounce. Unquestionably, the Tigers play better at home and they are 21-10 ATS when they force 14 to 18 turnovers.

Duke is off upset loss at N.C. State and looks for quick turnaround victory, since they are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS after a spread loss in lined games. Clemson is 9-1 and 6-1 ATS on their home floor and last year’s win at home was the first in 10 vs. Duke, with 4-5-1 ATS record.

Young NBA teams earning respect

Twenty-six NBA teams will be in action this Friday night, however two matchups stand out which won’t get the lion’s share of wagering dollars. The reason is these are not public teams, instead from medium sized markets (except for one) and mostly having a history of professional basketball failure or little history at all. Charlotte heads south to take on division rival Atlanta and Oklahoma City travels to the mid-south to tackle Memphis.

Atlanta looks to not get tangled in Charlotte’s web

To use a little Stu Scott speak in talking about Larry Brown, the Bobcats head coach, “The man may drive a U-Haul as his top rig with all the stops he’s made, but the dude can still coach”. Since Charlotte was again awarded a NBA franchise, they have been more beatable than a piñata. That was until the oft-traveled Brown found his dream job (for the 10th time) in the middle of North Carolina.

The Bobcats (21-19, 25-15 ATS) are on the prowl and suddenly dangerous having tied a franchise record with six consecutive wins (4-2 ATS), all at Time Warner Cable Arena. There is nothing fluky about Charlotte winning either, with average margin of victory 15.5 points per game. Brown’s Bobcats are 9-1 since 2010 arrived. “I can’t explain this,” coach Brown said. “Guys are playing at a high level.”

Charlotte is a 6.5-point underdog at DiamondSportsbook.com and is 11-3 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season, as they prepare for Southeast Division leader Atlanta (27-14 SU and ATS). The Hawks have been solid all year and have won six of last eight (5-3 ATS). Atlanta is well aware of how Charlotte is playing.

“They’re playing extremely well from a defensive standpoint so we’ll be tested without a doubt,” coach Mike Woodson said. “We’ll see where we stand from a defensive standpoint because they’ve got three, four guys that can really score the basketball and Jackson coming over from Golden State has really helped their ballclub.” The Bobcats are first in fewest points allowed in the NBA (92.2) and fourth in field goal defense (44.1).

Atlanta is seeking a quality 4-1 homestand, before heading out of town to play four of next five away from home. The Hawks have the league’s best home record at 17-5 and are 15-7 ATS. Atlanta lost by 20 points (103-83) at Charlotte back on Nov.6 and are 16-6 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more over the last two seasons.

The Hawks would seem to be in a solid situation since home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a home win against a division rival, cover 75 percent of the time (36-12). And Charlotte is a mere 3-15 on the road, losing by 5.8 points per game; however is 11-7 ATS. Sports South carries the action at 7:30 Eastern.

How did this happen?

It’s been suggested from time to time the NBA’s playoff structure should be altered. Presently the Western Conference has far more good teams than the Eastern Conference, which has been the case for the last several years. If the league went to taking the best 16 teams by records, the West would horde 11 of those spots as the standings are today. Included would be two unlikely teams, Oklahoma City and Memphis.

Like the line from the classic movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, “Who are these guys?”
Right out of Ripley’s Believe It or Not, The Thunder and Grizzlies are the two best teams in the West the last month. (Really it’s true) Oklahoma City is 11-4 and 9-6 ATS since Dec. 23. The Thunder is a very young team and amazingly coach Scott Brooks has been able to convince them that defense is the way to get better. In Oklahoma City’s last 14 games, they have held opponents to 93.6 points per game on 41.9 shooting, the latter easily the best in the NBA. The Thunder (24-18, 25-17 ATS) won by two at Minnesota in their last outing as seven point favorites and are awesome 14-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.

Memphis (22-19, 24-17 ATS) has been right on Oklahoma City’s tail, winning nine of last 13 the last month and their turnaround goes even a little further back sporting 12-4 SU and ATS record since Dec. 18. The Grizzlies are also a youthful squad, with Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and still relatively young Zach Randolph. The Grizz come into this showdown 17-6 ATS having won three of their last four games.

Memphis is a 3.5-point favorite with total of 204.5. The Grizzlies lost to Oklahoma City at home back in December and they are 15-5 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent. The Thunder will seek their fifth win in six tries over Memphis since moving to Oklahoma (4-1 ATS) and have a recipe for success. If OKC scores 100 or more points and holds the opposition under that number, they are 11-0 ATS this season.

Keep a close eye on the total, with the Grizzlies who are 10-0 OVER after covering four of their last five against the spread this year and Oklahoma City who is 12-3 OVER in road games playing eight or more games in 14 days. Fox Sports in Oklahoma will carry this contest of two up and comers starting 8 Eastern.

Are Jets and Vikings good Money Line plays?

Both New York and Minnesota are road underdogs this upcoming Sunday, yet each in their own way has proven to be a valuable play for the sports bettors. The postseason tournament has revisited yesteryear this season, as the two top seeds from each conference advanced to the conference titles games for the first time since 2004. However, if history has shown us anything, the higher seeded favorite not only fails to cover, but they lose outright.

The last time two top seeds made it to the Super Bowl was the season of 1993. Since that time, on seven different occasions a matchup of the best from the NFC and AFC could have happened and not once did this occur. Betting on No.1 leaves a nasty mark at 5-9 against the spread with seven outright losers, six from the AFC.

Confident New York rolling

The Jets are the bigger underdog at 7.5-points at Bookmaker.com and are +280 on the money line. Indianapolis has nobody to blame but themselves for ending up with this opponent who really believes in itself.

The Colts pulled many of the their top players against the Jets in Week 16 and New York stormed to 26-6 second half, providing the momentum they needed to start winning. Make no mistake, coach Rex Ryan has this team believing they are every bit as good as the 85’ Bears and 2000 Ravens, both defensive-oriented teams that won Super Bowls.

In analyzing the rosters of the two teams, take away Peyton Manning; a case could be made the Jets have a better starting roster. The Colts offensive line is merely average with Indy have no running game to speak of, saved by Manning’s ability to get rid the ball. No doubt Manning has the skill to pick apart any defense, but this is unique Jets D, who creates relentless pressure from every angle imaginable and whose job this week is to make Manning miserable, which could lead to bad throws and possible picks.

The Jets are going to run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, as the duo along with a talented offensive line averages 4.5 yards per carry on 38 attempts per contest. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has played smartly in recent weeks and his confidence has been growing, making better throws especially once the second half arrives.

NFL playoff football has evolved into getting hot at the right time. The Flyboys have won and covered seven of eight and don’t worry about playing a third straight game on the road, the Giants and Steelers have won Super Bowls in the last four years doing so.

Strong defensive teams allowing 14-18 points per game, against teams that allow 18 to 23 points per contest, after allowing 17 points or less in three straight times, are 44-18 on the money line.

Minnesota is Favre-ulous

It was a little shocking to see New Orleans as four-point favorites over Minnesota, since the Vikings appear to have a decidedly better defense. That said the Vikings have not been nearly as good away from the Metrodome this season with .500 record SU and ATS and haven’t won or covered a road game since Nov. 1 in Green Bay (0-3).

It would be foolish to dismiss Minnesota since this team is right where many thought they would be dating back to the middle of October. Brett Favre has been amazing. Scrap the grayish beard and flecks on the dome and he looks every bit the player that went to consecutive Super Bowls in the mid-90’s. Gone are the days of just throwing it up for grabs, trusting his arm along with coaches patience, trying to play Mission Impossible plays.

While New Orleans has offensive weapons all over the field, Minnesota crew is hardly second-rate. Receivers like Sidney Rice are explosive and rookie Percy Harvin is a ticking time bomb that could detonate at any time. The Vikings offensive line and Adrian Peterson have seen a number of different defensive schemes, all designed to stop A.P.; nonetheless they have to be encouraged with the Saints permitting 4.6 yards per carry.

The strength of Minny’s defense is not in the secondary, however if the Vikings defensive line plays the same as they did against Dallas, it won’t matter again. If DE Ray Edwards brings it again, Minnesota has four legitimate run stoppers and pass rushers on every play. The affects of defensive pressure have been on display in eight playoff games and if they can shake up Drew Brees, possibilities start to open up.

This is the moment Favre yearned for and no doubt wants retribution for NFC title game failure two years ago. Teams that average 7.3 or more yards per pass attempt, against average passing defense (5.9-6.7 YPPA), after gaining eight or more passing yards an attempt in two straight games, are 37-12 on the money line the last five seasons. At +160, the Vikes are worth serious consideration.

Thursday College Hoops Action

With the college basketball firmly entrenched in conference play, this night of the week tends to be the most unusual. Thursday has made for TV games on the worldwide leader and Pac-10 play. The rest tends to be a collection of teams you might see once every five years if you are serious student of the game and a large number of universities with hyphens. That’s OK, since Thursday is the second busiest weeknight for the sports bettor in college hoops and who doesn’t like the challenge of being the guru of the West Coast or Big West conferences. Here is a peak at a couple contests this evening.

Big East teams in need of rally

Louisville’s recent loss to Villanova pointed towards a problem the Cardinals have and isn’t going to go away without commitment. Louisville players like the feeding frenzy of pressing all over the court and forcing turnovers; however they haven’t taken a liking bending over, getting in defensive stance and guarding their man for 25 seconds or more. This is why the Cardinals (12-6, 5-8 ATS) allow an ordinary 42.2 percent shooting percent and it skyrockets to 45.5 percent on the road. In order for Louisville to become a better squad, coach Rick Pitino is going to have to convince them that defense isn’t just about making steals, it’s about preventing scoring. The Cards are 18-6 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.

Not unexpectedly, Seton Hall (10-6, 3-7 ATS) has struggled in Big East action with 1-4 record. The Pirates have three different players capable of playing point guard, what has hurt them is their weaknesses have been exposed in conference play and when one fails, the other hasn’t raised his level of play to compensate. Seton Hall insiders believe playing two of these guards at the same time might be a solution, however that makes a Pirates team lacking height ever shorter. The Hall’s defensive numbers don’t look too bad in allowing 41.7 percent shooting, but they have permitted 50 or more in last three outings and are 0-7 ATS in next game after surrendering 47 percent or more in a trio of games.

Coach Pitino by his own admission is off the second most difficult loss of his career at Pittsburgh (the Duke Christian Laettner game was the worst) and his team is a one point underdog at Bookmaker.com. Louisville is well suited for this spot with 15-3 ATS record as a road underdog of three points or less or pick. This has the appearance of a high scoring affair with either defense not playing especially well and both teams scoring over 80 points a game. The Cardinals are 10-2 OVER in all games this season and Seton Hall is 13-4 OVER after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread.

This is just the third Big East contest in New Jersey between teams (1-1 SU & ATS) with both games going Over. Tipoff is at 7:00 Eastern on ESPN.

Pac-10 Mess

Let’s face it, the Pacific 10 conference this season looks like a California interstate, jam-packed and just waiting for a wreck to occur. The league actually looks like a wreck with three teams sporting two losses in league play and the other seven all with three defeats. The way it’s setting up, whoever finishes over .500 in the conference has a chance to be champion. The bracketologists of the world (do we need these guys or should President Obama just appoint a czar) have suggested if the Pac-10 plays out as many expect, the conference is looking at one NCAA bid, with two tops as the ceiling.

Tonight, Washington State (13-5, 5-10 ATS) visits USC (11-6, 9-7 ATS). These teams are polar opposites in the wagering world. The Cougars are 3-3 in league play with just one cover. What’s odd about this is Wazzou has shot 50 percent or higher in four of six Pac-10 games and still is 1-5 ATS. The Trojans return home off a three game road trip and look as good as any team in the conference.

With its well-documented off the court problems, USC made a strange hire in Kevin O’Neill though they didn’t have a lot of choices because of timing. The seemingly always sour-faced O’Neill found players willing to listen to his negative tone and defensive orientation and have responded. The turning point was upsetting Tennessee in early December and the Men of Troy have won nine of 11 and have covered six of seven including four in a row.

USC has been sent out as eight-point favorite and are 6-0 ATS after four straight games where both teams score 70 points or less over the last three seasons. With the Trojans holding teams to 54.7 points per game on 36.7 percent shooting, it doesn’t place Washington State in favorable position with 0-8 ATS record versus excellent defensive teams allowing 57 or less points a game.

Wednesday Sports Action

A 1-2 off night saw Cleveland fall in our system play, which directly related to the Cavs allowing 100 points (see related article below) and failing to cover. Tonight’s Best System returns to the NBA with the look of a winner at 85.3 percent. The Top Trend is reverse perfect in the A-10 and the LCC will have free play shortly trying to continue winning ways. Good Luck

What I thought last night – It’s not every night you fail to cover a single digit spread in college basketball when your team was leading by 17 points in the second half, but Miami-Fl went on to lose the game outright. I also had a loser on Alabama, thinking they would be fired up to favored Tennessee, instead the Crimson Tide players and fans were as about as emotional as if they were playing Tennessee State.

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Free Basketball System -1) Play On home teams like Orlando, a good shooting team (45.5-47.5 percent) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 reb/game). This system checks in at 29-5 ATS, 85.3 percent including 6-1 this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Charlotte 49ers are 0-12 ATS in January games over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The LCC takes the Charlotte Bobcats as top play.

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ESPN announcer swap worth listening to

For a second straight year, ESPN will flip-flop its top announcing teams from college and pro basketball to do games in the other sport. Last year Dick Vitale and Dan Shulman doing a NBA game was honestly no big deal, since Dicky V and Shulman have done games in the past and Vitale’s delivery doesn’t come across the same in pro venue with quieter surroundings.

However, Mike Breen, Mark Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy will be calling a college game again and they offer different insights, since they have a pro mentally and view the game from that point of view. Their player and coach opinions are interesting and their comments (at least from last year) about collegiate referees were hilarious.

Wake Forest at North Carolina 7 Eastern

The main story line the trio is likely to follow is what is wrong with the Tar Heels. With a 12-6 record, North Carolina doesn’t deserve to be ranked in the Top 25 and their under-performing ways are further shone with 6-10 ATS record. Since returning to Chapel Hill, coach Roy Williams has never suffered a three-game losing streak, however the answers as to why they are bumbling are present.

North Carolina doesn’t value the possession of the basketball and despite trying to play a faster pace like previous Tar Heels teams; the guard play isn’t there to do so. Guards Larry Drew II and Marcus Ginyard are part of the reason North Carolina averages almost 17 turnovers a game and the front court players though talented, are not especially good at creating in the half court. Look for Wake Forest to dial up pressure from the opening tap, since the Tar Heels have fallen behind by 20 points in each of their last two games and are 7-20 ATS in ACC contests.

Wake Forest (12-4, 6-7 ATS) has issues of their own, mostly to do with shooting the rock. The Demon Deacons shot 45.3 percent from the field, however that number has been plunging, with three of last five outings below 40 percent. Wake Forest lacks consistent shooting beyond 18 feet and does much better when playing 94 feet. Off their 70-50 drubbing by Duke, Wake is 15-29 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games.

DiamondSportsbook.com has North Carolina as -6.5 favorite with total of 157.5. The Tar Heels are 7-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons. The Demon Deacons are 18-34 ATS in road games versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight points a contest after 15 or more games on the season.

Look for the NBA guys to really like Al-Farouq Aminu, a 6-foot-9 forward for Wake Forest, if he keeps working on his shooting.

Utah at San Antonio 9 Eastern

One thing hasn’t changed since Vitale used to do radio playoff games in the NBA after his college basketball duties were completed, the San Antonio Spurs are still a very good home team and Utah doesn’t do much in a visitor’s uniform.

The Spurs (25-15, 21-18-1 ATS) are 17-6 (13-9-1 ATS) at the AT&T Center, winning by 9.6 points per game. San Antonio doesn’t have the look of a team ready to compete for an NBA title, especially this month, with a 6-5 SU and ATS mark. Granted the playoffs are still a half a season away, but coach Gregg Popovich is still looking for answers now and down the road, even utilizing little used center Ian Mahinmi. The Spurs do have rebounding deficiencies and a contributor with size could help.

Utah (23-18, 23-16-2 ATS) is 7-12 away from Salt Lake City, though is a competent 9-9-1 ATS. The Jazz have frequently been off key this season, though recent games have shown improvement, winning four of five and they are 5-0-2 ATS in last seven tries.

Utah has same identical record to Oklahoma City, tied for the last playoff position in the West. The team believes they have turned a corner and will start playing better basketball. “We've lost some games we should have won," Carlos Boozer said. "That being said, we're still right in the thick of things. If we can put together a nice little win streak, we can make up some ground." The Jazz are off 119-112 loss to Denver as seven-point underdogs and are 10-3 ATS after a defeat.

The series is dominated by the home team, which is why the Spurs are a 6.5-point favorite. The white clad team is 20-6 ATS and San Antonio is 16-5 ATS hosting the Jazz. These two teams have tended to play high scoring contests, thus keep an eye on the total of 194, since the total is 8-1 OVER in Southwest Texas.

Super Tuesday

Let’s jump into the NBA today and take a look at team that is 80.6 percent. Not hard to locate with just two games. The Top Trend finds a SEC team in a near perfect spot as an underdog. The Top Free Play follows what suddenly losing Purdue might do on Super Tuesday. Good Luck

What I thought last night - Sports bettors yesterday saw this coming, just not in the manner it occurred. Kansas State opened as Pick at home against top ranked Texas and were quickly bet up to 1.5-point favorites on the morning line, before settling to one point by game time.

It wasn’t so much a complete surprise Kansas State pulled the upset, since they had proven to be a very good basketball team. It was the manner in which the Wildcats won that will cause many to take a second look at both teams.

Kansas State was supposed to be a decided disadvantage in the front court, this ended up not being true. Chris Kelly and Jamar Samuels were both impressive in totaling 37 points and 20 rebounds combined. Dexter Pittman and Damion James were presumed to superior to what the Wildcats would have to offer up front, however they scored just 15 points and grabbed 14 boards as a combo and Pittman in particular seemed passive after getting roughed up early.

K-State was the aggressor from the start, playing better defense and being the smarter team. The upset, at least from rankings perspective, is all the more amazing when you consider Jacob Pullen was 2-15 shooting (0-6 on 3’s) and committed five turnovers.

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Free Basketball System -1) Play On good shooting teams like Cleveland making 48 percent or better on the season, after a game they allowed of 55 percent or higher. This system is 29-7 ATS, 80.6 percent the last five seasons.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Alabama is 12-1 ATS as a home underdog of three points or less or pick, winning by three points per game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection Consensus likes Purdue to wake up and cover the spread as favorites.

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100 Points meaningful number in the NBA

Breaking the century mark in professional basketball offers insights into many different areas of the game for teams, fans and sports bettors. For those in attendance at an NBA game, the home team breaking 100 may mean a free drink or free food depending on the club’s list of sponsors. For any team, scoring 100 points might lead to a near certain victory, however scoring that many points and giving up equal value on the triple digits side could comprise a win. The NBA sports bettor would have a real edge if he can determine what teams will allow or reach the 100-point threshold, which could build a significant bankroll.

Went thru the complete list of NBA teams and found the teams with the five best records when scoring 100 or more points. (Records are straight up wins)

L.A. Lakers 26-1
Cleveland 25-1
Boston 18-2
Oklahoma City 16-2
Orlando 18-3

The most common characteristic among these teams had nothing to do with scoring, it was points allowed. All five teams are among the Top 8 in fewest points given up. It’s easy to surmise if teams break the century mark in points scored, they are a good bet to not only win, but to cover the spread. Here is their SU and spread records when they do so.

L.A. Lakers 26-1, 16-11 ATS
Cleveland 25-1, 18-8 ATS
Boston 18-2, 12-8 ATS
Oklahoma City 16-2, 15-3 ATS
Orlando 18-3, 13-7-1 ATS

It is not a surprising the Lakers and Celtics have the poorest records in studying these numbers since both are very public teams these days and attract a lot of money, inflating the value of points they are to win by. However, each of the other three teams has a healthy spread record and be counted on to deliver very positive results when ringing up 100 points. A great question would be how can one know when any of these teams will score that many points? More on that later.

Here is something uncovered about these teams that is also extremely revealing, what happens when they surrender triple digits? What we find is these become very ordinary teams that are beatable and just horrific wagers that give away cash almost as fast as Congress.

L.A. Lakers 9-8, 3-14 ATS
Cleveland 8-4, 3-9 ATS
Boston 8-5, 4-9 ATS
Oklahoma City 4-14, 6-12 ATS
Orlando 7-10, 4-12-1 ATS

The most important aspect to remember about these five teams, they are defensive-oriented, while clearly having the ability to score points. They are not like Charlotte or Detroit, who show up in fewest points conceded list, in part because they play a half-court brand of basketball, not conducive to scoring or allowing 100 points. These clubs are primarily favorites and when they allow that many points, it restricts the number of games they can cover the spread, making them extremely poor wager.

This helps lead into area that can be profited from by doing homework on game day. Went back and looked at the spread records of our five teams when they score 100 or more points and permitted less than 100. This is an extremely noteworthy area of profit.

L.A. Lakers 12-4 ATS
Cleveland 15-1 ATS
Boston 8-2 ATS
Oklahoma City 11-0 ATS
Orlando 8-3 ATS

Add these five NBA squads together in this situation and you are looking at a sterling 55-10, 84.6 percent ATS record, highlighted by the Thunder’s perfect mark. While there is no precise method to determine when this actual event will occur, oddsmakers can certainly lend a hand from a predictive nature. For example, say Oklahoma City is playing Sacramento and is a nine-point favorite with total of 197. In this situation, those setting the odds are telling us the Thunder should win the game 103-94 over the Kings, fitting the exact needed criteria to cover the spread and extract a winner.

In no way is there a hint that anyone will hit above 80 percent in following these teams given set of circumstances that unfolds after a game has been played, rather find ways following this simple premise to put the odds in your favor.

The same would hold true for these five clubs if they are matched against opponent where they might be a smaller road favorite with a total of say 209. If the Lakers were favored by five at Indiana with such a total, the score would show L.A. winning 107-102, if the contest plays out correctly and Kobe Bryant’s team has covered less than one out of four of such a setup.
One hundred points could lead to hundreds of profit dollars.

Team toughness on display Tuesday

Adversity will often determine character. For Purdue, Tennessee and to a lesser degree Northern Iowa and Wichita State, they will all be tested on Super Tuesday. The Boilermakers have lost three in a row; the Vols take to the road since having best player dismissed and the Panthers look to stay perfect in conference action, while the Shockers look to rebound from loss.

Purdue pride on display

The Boilermakers (14-3, 8-9 ATS) started 14-0 and looked like one of the best teams in the country, three conferences losses later they might not even be a Big Ten contender unless they can overcome inadequacies. The question around the country has been what’s wrong with Purdue? Unfortunately, the warts are in more than one location.

Start with the Boilermakers are a good not a great shooting team. Purdue makes 45.2 percent from the field, which is only good for a tie for fifth in the conference with Wisconsin. When they have an off shooting night like they did at Northwestern (35.6 percent) their defense alone can’t overcome bad shooting eye. Though they are a +7 in turnover margin, coach Matt Painter has another issue, rebounding.

Beyond 6-foot-10 JaJuan Johnson, Purdue lacks height, as Robbie Hummel continues to be miscast as power forward. The Boilers have been out-rebounded in every Big Ten game thus far, by an average of over eight per game. That means few offensive boards for opportunities to score and giving up too many chances to the opposition. If Johnson gets in foul trouble, then the problem becomes even larger.

Purdue is a 2.5-point road favorite at Illinois (12-6, 5-10-1 ATS) according to Bookmaker.com, who is 3-7 ATS in last 10 games. The Boilermakers are on 2-6 ATS slide as favorites and 3-8 ATS against teams with a winning home record. Possibly there only saving grace is the Illini are 1-10 ATS as a home underdog of three points or less or pick, losing by almost six points game.

This Big Ten tilt starts at approximately 9 Eastern on ESPN.

Why don’t we do it on the road?

It’s been a test of character for Tennessee, losing four players to suspension, especially its best player Tyler Smith, who has been dismissed from the squad. The Vols (14-2, 7-6 ATS) have been able to overcome a shortened roster playing at home, which has been a big plus. Though guards Melvin Goins and Cameron Tatum returned to practice Sunday, coach Bruce Pearl’s club takes to the SEC road for the first time since the off-campus incident occurred.

Coach Pearl and his team have done great work in rallying, playing with just six scholarship players on the roster until Goins and Tatum returned. A hostile environment sets up a different set of circumstances for a team that is 17-32 ATS in road games after four or more consecutive wins.

Look for this to be an angry Alabama (11-6, 7-7 ATS) club having lost two straight. The Crimson Tide student body will likely have an opinion about Tennessee’s returning players, who according to Pearl might not see any action, preferring to keep the recent rotation intact. The Volunteers are 2.5-point favorites; however Bama is 12-1 ATS as a home underdog of three points or less or pick. ESPN has coverage at 7 Eastern.

Missouri Valley matchup a beauty

If you haven’t seen Northern Iowa (16-1, 12-4 ATS), all they do is systematically disassemble opponents. They have a collection of skillful guards with different abilities. Center Jordan Eglseder is 7’0, 285 pounds, with a deft left-handed touch and forward Adam Koch is dependable 13 points a night with five boards and solid defender for squad that is 16-4 ATS versus clubs that concede 64 or fewer points a game over the last two seasons.

Wichita State (16-3, 7-5 ATS) has proved its pedigree with wins over Texas Tech and quality road triumphs at Cleveland State and Missouri State. The Shockers have imposing depth, with eight players averaging 17 to 30 minutes a game, with no drop off. Guards Clevin Hannah and Toure Murry, along with center J.T. Durley are the team’s three leading scorers that are part of a very balanced attack. Coach Gregg Marshall stresses defense and his players are wholly committed to limiting descent looks at the basket by the opposition. Wichita State is off tough one-point loss at Creighton and is 5-0 ATS after a defeat.

The Shockers are a three-point favorite which doesn’t mean much since Northern Iowa is 16-4 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. These combatants are 6-6 SU and ATS at Charles Koch Arena the last 12 years. This MVC matchup starts at 9:05 on ESPNU.

Holy Crap, Big Monday is REALLY BIG

The Texas Longhorns were voted No.1 in the rankings for the first time last week and found out how thorny that crown can be, holding on to win at Iowa State and being pushed to overtime at home by Texas A&M before surviving this past week. The next test could be the toughest, at No.13 Kansas State. Syracuse pulled the upset at West Virginia and faces a hungry Notre Dame team that always plays better at home and off a heart-breaking loss.

Syracuse at Notre Dame 7:00E ESPN

Both the Orangemen and the Fighting Irish were engaged in close hard fought battles Saturday, the former emerged victorious, while the latter was beaten in the final seconds.

Syracuse held on at West Virginia 72-71, nearly blowing a 10-point lead in the final 80 seconds. That moved the Orangemen to 17-1 (11-3 ATS) on the year, as they continue to be one of the best shooting teams in the country at 53.4 percent, with the ability to score inside with Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku or the perimeter with a number of sharp-shooters from deep hitting 39.2 percent beyond the arc. This year’s Orangemen are much better defensively than the previous couple of years and they are 8-1 ATS after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 40 percent or less.

Notre Dame (14-4, 7-4-1 ATS) had a nip and tuck affair with Cincinnati, succumbing late 60-58. It was rare off-game for Luke Harangody, making just 5 or 20 shot attempts. Harangody admitted he missed shots he usually doesn’t, however did take more off-balance shots than he normally does. The Big East usually doesn’t leave much room for error, as coach Mike Brey explained.

“I told our guys, in this league when you have a game on Monday, you can’t dwell on it,” Brey said after the loss. “We have to get back to South Bend and get our legs under us.” The Irish are 20-35 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival.

Syracuse is going off as three-point favorite and are 6-0 ATS as visitors playing against a team with a winning record this season. The total is 158 and the Orangemen are 9-1 OVER after a win by six points or less over the last three seasons. Notre Dame is 6-0 UNDER at home off a Big East loss since last season and 6-17 ATS in South Bend when the total is 150 to 159.5.
The Fighting Irish are 3-7 and 4-6 ATS the last 10 times the ‘Cuse has come calling.

Texas at Kansas State 9:00E ESPN

The Longhorns have played a number of very good clubs this season and has played at an extremely high level except for a couple blips here and there. This road encounter is against one of the best teams in the Big 12 who would savor the opportunity to take down one of the nation’s No. 1 team. One edge Texas (17-0, 8-5 ATS) has is in the frontcourt with Damion James, Dexter Pittman and Gary Johnson. Though Kansas State has solid players on the baseline, they don’t matchup well in this department. That said the atmosphere will be electric at Bramlage Coliseum, which could offset the Longhorns talent edge with the emotion of the building. Coach Rick Barnes team has been an awful team in Big 12 play with 5-16 ATS record the last two years.

The Wildcats (15-2, 9-3 ATS) will depend on their puissant backcourt of Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente. With all the talent Texas has at the guard position, they don’t have two individuals that complement one another as well as this duo. Pullen can drain the three-ball and Clemente has superior court presence. Kansas State has to play their game to upset Texas and that means being disruptive on defense, where they average nearly 20 points per game off turnovers.

“We understand we’re getting ready to walk into a buzz saw,” coach Frank Martin said about facing Texas. “That’s why those kids signed up and came to play for us. Those are the kinds of games they wanted to be in.” The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS at home having won four of their last four games over the last three seasons.

DiamondSportsbook.com has this important matchup has the Longhorns as 1.5-point underdogs, with total of 159. Texas is off to their best start since 1932 and is just 1-11 ATS off a win against a conference foe and is 14-5 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. K-State is 7-1 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season and is 13-4 OVER after playing two consecutive games as favorite.

These Big 12 squads have split last six meetings in Manhattan SU and against the number.

All Systems go on NBA Monday

It’s a special day in the NBA celebrating Martin Luther King Day. This has led a blitz of basketball most of the day, starting in early afternoon and going late into the evening, especially east of the Mississippi. A dozen different opportunities are presented to the sports bettor as the league honors a great man known for heroic deeds. Numbers from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Detroit (+5.5,192) at New York 1:05E MSG

The Pistons have followed losing 13 in a row with three straight triumphs against New York squad that has dropped four of five. In this situation, look to play on road team having lost 12 or more of their last 15 games against opponent having fallen four of their last five games. (63-28 ATS)

Portland (+1.5, 192) at Washington 1:05E NBA-TV

The short-handed Washington Wizards have fallen four of last five games and this afternoon will be their fifth game in a week. Home teams with a winning percentage of 25 to 40 percent, playing their 5th game in 7 days are 62-103 ATS since 1996.

Sacramento (+6, 196) at Charlotte 2:05E

The Charlotte Bobcats have won four in a row, seven of eight and covered the spread in 12 of their last 17 games. Sacramento on the other hand has lost three straight (not shooting over 38 percent), 10 of 12 and absolutely buried backers with 2-9-1 recent spread record. Naturally, the Bobcats would be the play correct? In the NBA, look the other way as a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points are 8-24 ATS the last three years after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games.

Oklahoma City (+5.5, 196) at Atlanta 2:05E

The Thunder is proving to be one of the best young teams in all of the NBA, even producing a winning record. Oklahoma City is off an impressive wipeout of Miami 98-80 and road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, off a home win by 10 points or more, with a winning percentage of between 45-55 percent on the season, are 34-11 UNDER since 2007.

Milwaukee (+6.5, 197.5) at Houston 3:05E

This is the last stop on the Bucks six-game road trip that has seen then manufacture 1-4 (2-3 ATS) record. Don’t be surprised if Milwaukee plays OVER, as road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, after allowing 100 points or more two straight games, against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more on two or more consecutive contests, are 35-12 the last five seasons.

Philadelphia (-1.5, 205.5) at Minnesota 3:35E

The Sixers and Timberwolves are a couple rumpled offensive teams, ranking 21st and 25th in points scored respectively in the league. In spite of their misgivings in placing the ball in the baskets, teams like Philadelphia off consecutive Under’s, playing in a matchup involving two squads that average 92-98 points per game, with a total over 200, are 33-7 OVER since 2005.

New Jersey (+9.5, 196) at L.A. Clippers 3:35E YES

In this battle of can’t dial up long distance vs. can’t guard from far away, something has to give. The Clippers are 27th in three-point accuracy and the Nets are 27th in stopping made baskets from beyond the arc. Home chalk that is poor three point shooting team (33% or less) who commit 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers a game, against lousy three-point defense (36.5% or higher) who average 14.5 or fewer TO's a contest are 13-35 ATS since 2004.

San Antonio (-1, 189) at New Orleans 3:35E

Like all good teams, San Antonio has hit the pot hole in the road, throwing the alignment off, which has caused them to lose last two road games. It appears this should not be a deterrent from considering play on the Spurs, as road favorites off two or more consecutive losses, with a winning percentage of 60-75 percent are 32-14 ATS the previous three years.

Chicago (-2, 219) at Golden State 4:00E WGN

The Bulls are playing their best basketball of the season by far, winning four in a row and eight of last 11, covering the number an imposing nine times. Road teams like Chicago after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, against opponent going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three outings are 25-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.

Phoenix (+2, 225) at Memphis 5:35E TNT

The Suns lead the NBA in scoring at 109.3 points per game, but have managed to lose the first three games on their road excursion. The last contest was particularly brutal, losing by 26 points at Charlotte and they will have one more chance to win one time on this trip. Teams scoring 103 or more points a game, who trailed by 20 or more points in their last game at halftime, are 32-10 ATS the next time out.

Dallas (+5, 197) at Boston 8:05E TNT

The Mavericks were blasted at Toronto 110-88 yesterday afternoon and have failed to cover the spread in four consecutive tries. This doesn’t set up well for Dallas as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, playing on back-to-back days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 25-57 ATS.

Orlando (+6, 202) at L.A. Lakers 10:35 TNT

Last season Orlando had plenty of magic on the road, this year, not so much. They are off back to back losses to Denver and Portland by 18 and 15 points respectively. The Lakers on the other hand crushed the Clippers by 40 points Friday night, making exactly half their shots. Teams off blowout win by 15 points or more facing opponent after two straight blowout losses by 15 points or more are 13-33 ATS the last five seasons.

Jets at Chargers Preview

The San Diego Chargers have won 11 straight games and no team is hotter, particularly offensively, as they scored 20 or more points in every game. More than one prognosticator has the Bolts fulfilling long believed destiny of making the Super Bowl this season. In spite of modest playoff success the last couple of years, is Norv Turner really capable of leading this team to Miami?

The New York Jets (10-7 SU & ATS) don’t believe so, especially after whipping Cincinnati 24-14 last week. While some would prefer to dismiss the Jets having won last two regular season games against unmotivated foes to sneak into the postseason, the fact remains they have won and covered six of seven (only loss late 10-7 defeat to Atlanta) and been impressive in doing so. In those triumphs, the Flyboys have beat the oddsmakers by 13.4 points per game. Without question, the Jets are the only remaining team in the playoffs where the quarterback position isn’t the most important factor.

New York is 9-3 ATS as road underdog and according to coach Rex Ryan, are built for January football. The Jets were the top rushing team in the NFL during the regular season and didn’t miss a beat at Cincinnati rushing for 171 yards last week. On defense, Ryan doesn’t look to stop a portion of a team’s offense; he wants to take EVERYTHING away.

Besides have talented players with aggressive style, Ryan is blessed with having CB Darrelle Revis. He is the best pure cover corner in football and faced a who’s-who of pass catchers this season, with none having more than five catches for a max of 35 yards. Why would teams bother to throw at him, instead of avoiding him like teams do Oakland’s Nnamdi Asomugha, they don’t have choice really.

While most teams play a version of Cover 2 defense, it’s not unusual for New York to play Cover 1 or 0, to create collapse the pocket, having faith Revis can stop top receiver and others in the secondary to guard for a shorter amount of time with opposing quarterback having to unload the ball quickly. The Jets are 6-3 SU and ATS on the road and last won in San Diego in the 2005 wildcard round, 20-17 as 6.5-point underdogs.

The Chargers (13-3, 8-7-1 ATS) believe they have inherit advantages over New York and will be able to expound on them. San Diego is emotional club and feeds on own momentum, that is why are 13-4 ATS after three or more consecutive wins. Last week, the Bengals defense lacked the players to make Mark Sanchez uncomfortable, as he completed most of passes rolling out or on naked bootlegs. The Chargers bring pressures off the edges, which should keep Sanchez in the pocket and make him read the entire field, instead of sections.

Phillip Rivers is tall and strong and seldom affected by a tight pocket. San Diego has a roster of tall receivers. Turner will try and use his No. 1 receiver Vincent Jackson, who will probably draw Revis. Instead of wasting time throwing deep to him, watch for Turner to run slants, hoping Jackson can use big body and have Rivers throw the ball high to him.

If that is taken away, Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee are monstrous targets for New York to combat and there’s that other guy, oh yea, Antonio Gates who isn’t too shabby for a Chargers club that is 15-6-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning road record.

DiamondSportsbook.com opened San Diego as nine-point chalk and most of the action has been on the Jets, now receiving seven points. New York’s offensive line must control an athletic Chargers front seven that is below average battling it out in the trenches, allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer got a game ball last week for scheme and play-calling and will need similar genius against the Bolts for the Jets to improve to 8-2 ATS vs. teams with winning home record.

The Chargers are 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 tilts and are the best screen team in football, with massive linemen and diminutive Darren Sproles hiding behind them before skittering away for big gains. He could well be the biggest difference in the last playoff game of the day.

Cowboys at Vikings Preview

Earlier in the season, Minnesota was making an argument they were NFC’s best team. Many football experts are now saying that title belongs to Dallas. That makes for an interesting backdrop for the teams’ Sunday’s divisional playoff.

After a 10-1 start, the Vikings (12-4, 9-6-1 ATS) closed 2-3 SU and ATS, with each loss suffered away from home. That won’t be an issue this time around, playing in the pandemonium of the Metrodome where they were 8-0 and 5-2-1 ATS, winning by 17.2 points a game.

Dallas (12-5, 10-7 ATS) has performed an exorcism of sorts, ending December and late season failures with four wins and covers in a row and winning a playoff game, ending unlucky 13-year drought. This has been especially important for coach Wade Phillips and Tony Romo, the two individuals most associated with the recent lack of success.

When the Minnesota front office stooped to modestly embarrassing levels to get the quarterback they wanted to win the division and hopefully lead them to a Super Bowl, this is what they envisioned to this point. Yes, Brett Favre’s ego could fill all 10,000 lakes in the state of Minnesota, but he has held up his part of the bargain and the Vikings as a team hope to complete the task.

The Dallas defense has been dominating holding opponents to just 54.8 yards per game rushing in their last five contests. This places the burden on the Minnesota offensive line to create holes for Adrian Peterson to nick the Cowboys defense. If Peterson has running lanes, this opens up the play-action passing game and Favre can attack Dallas both short and long.

Favre has a lot of answers to bludgeon opposing teams. Throwing deep to Sidney Rice, short and medium to TE Visanthe Shiancoe and underneath to Percy Harvin with his game-changing explosiveness. Two weeks ago the full arsenal was on display against the Giants and the Vikes are 5-1 ATS after throwing for 250 or more yards. All of this is rendered useless if DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are hanging all over No.4 in purple.

The Dallas defense has had Tim Lincecum stuff the last four weeks, pitching two shutouts and conceding a mere 31 points. Besides the perimeter pressure, the Cowboys secondary has covered receivers like TMZ on Tiger Woods and nose tackle Jay Ratliff has run roughshod on the middle of opposing offenses. Dallas has covered last five contests after permitting 90 or less yards rushing.

Minnesota has not scored less than 27 points at its indoor home, while the Cowboys have only permitted the Giants to break 21-point barrier, which seems something has to give with DiamondSportsbook.com having total of 45.5. Besides limiting scoring, Dallas has to limit Peterson, keeping his runs short and not allowing him to convert on third downs. A.P. lost a league high six fumbles; the Cowboys have to attack him and the ball, since they are 6-18 ATS in road games when they allow 22 to 28 points.

Minnesota is 30-16 ATS vs. excellent ball control teams, who keep the pigskin for 32 or more minutes a game. Their massive defensive tackles helped allow just 87 yards rushing (compared to opponents average of 113) and with Felix Jones providing home run potential out of the backfield, keeping the Cowboys ground attack in check is imperative. Antoine Winfield is not 100 percent, leaving others to corral Miles Austin, who is the big play threat the Cowboys need. This is where DE Jared Allen has to conquer Flozell Adams and make Romo make poor decisions.

The Vikings are well-rested and have more of the onus on them, being at home as 2.5-point favorites and having to fulfill preseason expectations against a hot team. Minnesota is 4-14-1 ATS after allowing less than 15 points in last game and has not covered last four contests as field goal or less favorite. Dallas isn’t the safest wager either, 5-9 ATS dressed as dogs in last 14 tries and 1-4 ATS as playoff club.

Oddsmakers actually opened this game at 48 and it has been drifting downward for apparently very good reason. The Cowboys are 11-1 UNDER on the road after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half (average score 33.7 total points) and the Vikings are 8-1 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more. (Average score 41 total points)