Line them up on a Saturday

A 2-1 Friday record brings us to 173-111-3, 60.9 percent, more than holding our own going over four months. Today’s Best System is 37-8 in the American League. The Top Trend looks at a total following a pitcher who has pitched like a king. The Free Plays are on 16-2 run. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday - Jason Schmidt and three relievers held the Braves off the scoreboard as the Dodgers took the opener of their series in Atlanta, 5-0. Believe it or not, that was the Dodgers' first shutout win in Atlanta in more than 20 years - since Ramon Martinez blanked the Braves, 7-0, on June 5, 1989. That span of 20 years, 56 days is the longest in National League history without a road shutout win by one team against another. (Thanks, Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Royals, who average 0.9 or less home runs per game, against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less dingers a start, with an artic starting pitcher who has WHIP 2.000 or higher over his last three starts. Since 2005, this system is 37-8, 82.2 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Felix Hernandez and Seattle are 14-2 UNDER on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last two seasons, with the average scored totaling 6.2 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kyle of the Left Coast Connection expects the Yankees to turn Chicago into a pair of dirty old sox.

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Lookin' to Fly on a Friday

Just like I said, nothing to worry about as 3Daily Winners came back with you guessed it, three Winners yesterday. You will have to visit Sesame Street for Free Pick since the teams involved start with the letter “C”. The Top Trend settles down on the west coast of Florida and the Best System is 86.4 percent. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday - The White Sox and Yankees combined for 23 strikeouts and one walk on Thursday in Chicago. In the era of the designated hitter (1973 to date) there's been only three other games played under American League rules in which the teams combined for 23 or more strikeouts and no more than one walk, and in each of those games, the ratio was also 23/1.(Thanks, Elias)

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites with a money line of -150 or more like Minnesota, after three straight games where they committed no errors, starting a pitcher who allowed five or more runs in his last two outings. This was today’s only qualifying system and it is 38-6, 86.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 21-3 in home games vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 2.6 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Nice work by Kyle on 4-0 day and he likes Colorado to sink Cincinnati.

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CFB Pre-Season Magazines offer intrigue - Part Dos

In part two of our article about college football pre-season magazines, we’ll take a look at the other five conferences, the Big Ten, Pac-10, SEC, MAC and Sun Belt. Three of the five leagues and or divisions have unanimous choices and it doesn’t take brain surgeon to figure what teams those are, with a few others up for grabs. Read on to learn more and start preparing to place your bets.

Big Ten
1) Ohio State
2) Penn State
3) Michigan State
4) Iowa
5) Illinois
6) Michigan
7) Wisconsin
8) Minnesota
9) Northwestern
10) Purdue
11) Indiana

Analysis- Here’s a surprise; Ohio State and Penn State are the favorites to win the Big Ten. Well, not really. The Buckeyes reload with the best of them and they will find out early where they are on national scope, hosting USC. Honestly, not sure why the Nittany Lions are rated this high with all the personnel losses and they haven’t recruited like the other top schools in the country. This also might be indictment of Big Ten. Michigan State continues to improve under coach Mark Dantonio, however quarterback and running back positions must be filled. Iowa could finish higher if lines on both sides of the pigskin dominate. Illinois could be most explosive offense in the conference and they might need to be, with so many new faces in back seven of defense. Rich Rodriguez better have a winning record in Ann Arbor, or fans of the Maize and Blue will really become restless. Minnesota opens new outdoor venue, but also has trips to Penn State and Ohio State that will impede progress. The rest of the teams have more holes than a Dunkin Donuts. Another so-so year in Big Ten Country.

Pac-10
1) USC
2) California
3) Oregon
4) Oregon State
5) UCLA
6) Arizona State
7) Stanford
8) Arizona
9) Washington
10) Washington State

Analysis – When somebody raises the bar to a new level, aren’t those chasing the lead dog supposed to at least catch them in time, if not surpass their efforts? In spite of only having 12 returning starters (three on defense), USC is the unanimous choice to repeat as Pac-10 champs. Besides Pete Carroll’s ability to fill a three-deep roster with incredible talent, this happens to be the year the Pacific 10 is quarterback poor. Only Washington and Oregon have field leaders that can be counted on to start the year. If one team has legit shot at the Trojans this year, it is California. If Kevin Riley improves accuracy to receiving targets, the 15 other Bears’ players that started last season should be even hungrier. Cal will know where they stand by early October with games at Oregon and USC, the first two on Pac-10 slate. Oregon has new coach in Chip Kelly needing to rebuild O-Line. Oregon State will have several fresh eager Beavers on defense. The rest are trying cover up weakness, with the Washington universities trying to lay foundation.

SEC East
1) Florida
2) Georgia
3) Tennessee
4) So. Carolina
5) Kentucky
6) Vanderbilt

SEC West
1) Mississippi
2) Alabama
3) LSU
4) Arkansas
5) Auburn
6) Mississippi State

Analysis – In the East Division, Florida is the hands-down choice to be play for SEC title again and is most everyone’s No.1 team to start the season. Georgia has just the kind of team that excels when in this position. Coach Mark Richt’s best teams have been those with lower expectations. Tennessee’s Lane Kiffin will eventually have to stop talking and coach, trying to bring in players that can knock off the Gators and Bulldogs. Steve Spurrier has found out top recruits like Gainesville better than Columbia, SC. As mundane as the East appears, the West Division should be rollicking fun. Ole Miss has gathered the most first place votes, with a talented squad led by QB Jevan Snead and Oxford will play host to Alabama, LSU and Tennessee, with Florida or Georgia nowhere in sight. If Greg McElroy is as prepared to lead the Crimson Tide as he believes, those that choose Bama to win the West should be correct. Coach Les Miles has always been unafraid of change and brought in top notch coaches like John Chavis (14 years at Tennessee) to improve his defense. Check with Bookmaker.com for the latest odds. These Tigers will be trouble. This is still the best conference in football by fair margin. (Did you guess that was Tim Tebow pic?)

MAC-East
1) Buffalo
2) Bowling Green
3) Temple
4) Ohio U
5) Akron
6) Kent State
7) Miami-O

MAC –West
1) Central Michigan
2) Western Michigan
3) Northern Illinois
4) Ball State
5) Toledo
6) Eastern Michigan

Analysis- The MAC conference has its up and down years and this could be one of the not so great years with five new coaches among the 13 universities. What last season proved is mediocrity or losing, won’t cut it in the MAC anymore. This conference needs to put fannies in the seats and have teams that play well with all it’s weekday televised games during the course of the season. Buffalo created vast excitement, winning the East Division and is the odds-on choice to repeat, with Bowling Green and Ohio U. snagging first place votes. In the West Division, the two best quarterbacks in the league reside on that half of the ledger. Dan LeFevour will once again be at the helm for Central Michigan, while Tim Hiller is under center for Western Michigan. None of the rest of the squads are presumed to compete for West crown. Everyone is still scratching their heads at Ball State, why Brady Hoke left his alma mater to coach San Diego State. At best a lateral career move for Hoke.

Sun Belt
1) Troy
2) Arkansas State
3) Florida Atlantic
4) Middle Tennessee State
5) UL-Monroe
6) Florida International
7) Louisiana- Lafayette
8) North Texas
9) Western Kentucky

Analysis- Maybe it’s the nickname Trojans, but Troy has the same appeal in the Sun Belt Conference that USC has out West, being unanimous choice. Troy joined the Sun Belt in 2004 and has won three championships in a row. Coach Larry Blakeney recruits well, sets high expectations and hits the road to play top teams like Florida this season. The league as a whole is improving and Arkansas State and Florida Atlantic are part of that development. The Red Wolves are loaded at skill positions, while the Owls are flying with confidence, having won six of last seven contests a year ago, including the Motor City Bowl upset of Central Michigan. Middle Tennessee State has 19 starters back, however many played as freshmen and sophomores. The Blue Raiders have upset potential if Dwight Dasher emerges as quarterback. The remaining group will try to avoid last place, hoping its newest member Western Kentucky, will occupy that spot in 2009.

MLB Series Wagering- Astros at Cardinals

Coming into the season, the Houston Astros were among the more interesting teams in baseball. They had a veteran cast of players who had been involved in several pennant races and because of budget restrictions, general manager Ed Wade had to assemble a starting pitching staff by using Linkedin, with the only other qualification being they were under 40 years old. Oddsmakers weren’t impressed and hung 73.5 for a win total on Houston, however with roughly two months to go in the season; the Astros (51-51, +0.9 units) are hovering around .500 and within striking distance like they have been in the five years in the NL Central.

Houston’s season has taken many twists and turns and presently they are in downward spiral, having lost five of six. They arrive in St. Louis (56-49, 0 units) to face a club that almost swept the best team in the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers, in four games. The Cardinals pitching was fantastic against L.A., allowing six runs in 36 regulation innings and two runs in seven extra frames. Last night’s 10-inning loss to the Dodgers dropped the Cards out of first place for the moment. St. Louis enters the weekend having played the most games in the big leagues and manager Tony LaRussa has to be thrilled his club will be off Monday and Thursday next week, for a well deserved break.

Houston will trot out one its elder statesmen Brian Moehler (7-6, 5.16 ERA) in the series opener. The 37-year old right-hander became a starter again last season in Houston and had found a groove in allowing three earned runs or less in eight straight starts, before being roughed up by the New York Mets for five runs in his last turn. Moehler’s skill has been his ability to keep his team in the game and the Astros are 20-11 in night games when he pitches the last two years.

The Cardinals will come from the opposite direction, recalling rookie Mitchell Boggs (1-0, 3.22) from Triple-A Memphis. Boggs was up with St. Louis in April and part of May and started to struggle. He’s earned this promotion according to manager Tony La Russa, conceding one run in last 21 innings over three starts. “I think he’s pitched effectively down there,” La Russa told the team’s official Web site. DiamondSportsbook.com has the St. Louis has -180 money line favorites in the opener, with the total Ov9. The Cards are 7-1 in recent Game 1’s and 12-3 as home favorites. Don’t give up completely on Houston, since they have won Moehler’s last five road starts and are 4-0 when he’s been listed as underdog.

Game 1 Edge: St. Louis

Both bullpens came into this series weary for different reasons. St. Louis had two extra inning games with the Dodgers and Houston’s was slapped around like the 3 Stooges by the Cubs. The middle conflict of this NL Central showdown is likely to see the pens get some rest with two strong pitchers. Wandy Rodriguez (10-6, 2.65) has to be sad to see the calendar flip to August, after sensational July. In five starts, the left-hander was 4-0 (Astros 5-0) with microscopic 0.75 ERA. He’s among the better values as starter at +6.45 units.

The Cardinals will counter with their ace Chris Carpenter (9-3, 2.19). The New Hampshire native hasn’t always had his best stuff like last Monday on ESPN, but he steers clear of trouble, being able to find one of his assortment of pitches to take care of hitters. St. Louis is 21-7 in Carpenter’s Game 2 starts and 39-12 if he pitches at Busch Stadium.

Game 2 Edge: St. Louis

The Cardinals role as favorite in the last game of the series will be determined by who pitches for the ‘Stros. Roy Oswalt (6-4, 3.61) left Tuesday's game with a lower back strain and received a pain-killing injection on Wednesday. If he feels well enough, Oswalt will give it a go. If not, Bud Norris will make his first Major League starting appearance. Norris allowed one run in three innings in his debut Wednesday against the Cubs. Baseball America has the 24-year old as the second best prospect in the Houston organization. He has 92-96 MPH fastball and a plus-curveball.

The only thing Adam Wainwright (12-6, 2.80) needs is a saddle. The Redbirds workhorse has pitched a minimum of six innings in last 20 starts (seven innings or more in seven of last nine trips to mound) and has surpassed the 110-pitch count 10 times in 2009. Wainwright and the Cards are 8-2 versus the NL Central, yet is surprisingly 6-6 at home. This will be the only day game of the series, with St. Louis 20-19 and Houston 17-15.

Game 3 Edge: St. Louis

Houston swept the Cards earlier in July during one of its hot spells. The Astros have also been swept in St. Louis this season and have lost nine of last 11 contests near The Arch. Our guest cappers are 3-0 and Hurricane Bill of Playbook.com will try to keep the streak alive.

“A big weekend match-up finds a pair of NL Central contenders heading in opposite directions as the struggling Houston Astros, losers of 5 of their last 6, travel to St. Louis to take on Cardinal squad that is coming off a series win over the Los Angeles Dodgers. To make matters worse for the visitors is they arrive short-handed with main offensive weapon, Lance Berkman, on the DL and ace Roy Oswalt experiencing back stiffness and in danger of missing Sunday’s finale. The hosts, on the other hand, look to be firing on all cylinders as new additions Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa and Julio Lugo are all making significant contributions. The Cards also have the luxury of having their big two, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, on the hill in this series and will be heavy favorites in all three games. Though we prefer to wager on dogs we cannot recommend a play on these bite-less ‘Stros. We’ll look for a St. Louie sweep, as they put another nail in Houston’s coffin.”

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Houston +220, St. Louis -300

3DWPick: St. Louis

2009 Record – 5-9

CFB Pre-Season Magazines offer intrigue

An annual right of summer is to gather the various college football magazines and go over the predictions from each conference. As a writer and sports handicapper, I have been pouring over data for months now and have strong feelings and opinions about how the various conferences races could play out. Part of winning college football wagers is having the necessary information to place your self into a position to win. This is why I annually make pilgrimages to the various book stores to purchase all the magazines (thankfully, the StatFox Edge was delivered to me) containing college football material.

The reasons for doing this are attaining knowledge and giving myself the best chance to win. First, I’m seeking information on the coaches and teams I may have missed in my own personal research. No matter how hard or far you dig, you will always find other useful nuggets. Next, is learning about all the players, particularly the difference-makers on each team, which is a powerful tool to understand if a team may be over or underrated before the season starts. Lastly, just to see what other so-called experts believe in making predictions. For example, in the Big East, FIVE DIFFERENT teams have been chosen to finish first and earn the BCS berth, talk about a difference of opinion! This is worth reading to understand why these publications would have such varying of beliefs. You can judge for yourself if the points are valid or just nonsense. Plus this allows one to find strong situations to place futures wagers at places like DiamondSportsbook.com on particular teams.

Listed below is the accumulation of all the conferences and the teams ranked in order, taking all the pre-season publications that were acquired, along with further analysis. Today we will at the ACC, Big East, MWC, Big 12, WAC, C-USA and Independents.

ACC -Atlantic
1) Florida State
2) Clemson
3) N.C. State
4) Wake Forest
5) Boston College
6) Maryland


ACC – Coastal
1) Virginia Tech
2) Georgia Tech
3) North Carolina
4) Miami
5) Virginia
6) Duke

Analysis- Virginia Tech ended the ACC’s eight-year BCS bowl drought with 20-7 win over Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl last season. Now, coach Frank Beamer wants to climb back into the national spotlight and an opening game victory over Alabama could do just that. Virginia Tech is unanimous choice to play in ACC title tilt. Georgia Tech has 17 starters back and is thought to be the only team in the Coastal Division to give the Hokies a run. Butch Davis is acquiring more talent annually in Chapel Hill; however the offensive losses hold North Carolina back. Florida State was almost everyone’s pick to capture the Atlantic Division, as talent is getting back towards the glory years, still with quite a ways to go. Clemson and North Carolina State are the most likely contenders to take down the Seminoles. Both have offensive weapons, which are curtailed with defensive deficiencies. The Nov. 14 contest in Raleigh could be meaningful. Its clearer today why Tom O’Brien left Boston College, as the Eagles could be grounded. This conference has a great deal of ground to makeup to be in elite status, but should be competitive. They must find the right place for ACC title game, since the crowds are embarrassment to league.

Big East
1) West Virginia
2) South Florida
3) Rutgers
4) Pittsburgh
5) Cincinnati
6) Connecticut
7) Louisville
8) Syracuse

Analysis- Conference’s that are not particularly outstanding will talk about having balance. This can make for extraordinarily entertaining football on the campuses involved, but it plays havoc trying to pick a winner. In reviewing the different college football magazines, the Big East stood out with five different teams chosen to finish atop the conference. Here is the other really crazy aspect, four of the top five listed above were also picked to finish 5th. (Rutgers was exception, there lowest rating was 4th) What makes this conference so confounding is every positive is outweighed by a negative. New quarterbacks, changing defenses and sometimes questionable coaching, suggest this league is ripe for underdogs to flourish.

Mountain West
1) Utah
2) TCU
3) BYU
4) Air Force
5) Colorado State
6) UNLV
7) New Mexico
8) San Diego State
9) Wyoming

Analysis – Utah completed second unbeaten season in five years, with big time blowout win against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. The Utes might not have finished with a perfect record, since they hosted nearest competitors TCU and BYU in Salt Lake City. Everything won’t be quite so easy in 2009, having to play those teams on the road in what should be three hotly-contested affairs between the best three squads in the Mountain West. The Horned Frogs are more settled on offense and has better athletes on defense than BYU, giving them slight edge. The rest of the conference will have three new head coaches and the chasm between the top teams and the rest is roughly about the length of the Continental Divide across the western United States.

Big 12 North
1) Nebraska
2) Kansas
3) Missouri
4) Colorado
5) Kansas State
6) Iowa State

Big 12 South
1) Texas
2) Oklahoma
3) Oklahoma State
4) Texas Tech
5) Baylor
6) Texas A&M

Analysis – The quarterback position in the Big 12 won’t have the same depth as last season; nevertheless the conference should feature more than enough firepower from its field generals. Current Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford returns to Oklahoma, just not with the same cast on offense that averaged video game-like 51.1 points per contest. The Sooners defense should be considerably tougher with nine starters back and they picked up a few first place votes over favored Texas. In almost any other year, Colt McCoy would have won the Heisman himself, after completing NCAA record 76.7 percent of pass attempts. The Longhorns only weak spots are finding every down running back and defensive linemen to chase down talented signal callers. Oklahoma State should break into top three in the South, with QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter and WR Dez Bryant leading the way. In the North Division, Nebraska has few more talented football players than Kansas; however don’t count the Jayhawks out with Todd Reesing at the controls. Missouri will fall without Chase Daniels around. Colorado is sleeper pick (in this case good or bad), with 10 offensive starters back and home games against Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. Buffs have only four starters returning on defense that ranked 78th in 2008.

WAC
1) Boise State
2) Nevada
3) Louisiana Tech
4) Fresno State
5) Hawaii
6) San Jose State
7) Utah State
8) Idaho
9) New Mexico State

Analysis- Last season was to be rebuilding year for Boise State and all they did was finish 12-0 and lost 17-16 to very good TCU outfit in the Poinsettia Bowl. Now the Broncos are still relatively youthful with a ton of experience and everyone’s choice to win the WAC yet again. In the unlikely event Boise State stumbles, look for Nevada to be ready to step in. The Wolf Pack has quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who plays like the Pistol offense was made for him. Louisiana Tech with 17 starters back in the fold and a running game that averaged 4.65 yards per carry could make noise in the WAC. If the Bulldogs should upset Nevada on the road in October, mark down Nov.6 as the biggest day ever potentially in Ruston, LA, with Boise State coming to town. Fresno State and Hawaii are middle of the pack in the WAC, with San Jose State the best of the rest.

Conference USA East Division
1) East Carolina
2) Southern Miss
3) Memphis
4) Marshall
5) Central Florida
6) UAB

Conference USA West Division
1) Houston
2) Tulsa
3) UTEP
4) SMU
5) Rice
6) Tulane

Analysis- The Big 12 offenses last season averaged a college football best 439.6 yards per game, guess who was second? That’s right football wizard, Conference USA at 401.8 yards per game. Every one has to find their niche in life and after much turmoil; C-USA is attracting offensive talent, which just isn’t determined good enough for the bigger conferences. It was also a banner postseason for the conference with 4-1 SU and ATS record. Houston has unfinished business of losing the West Division in last regular season contest to city rival Rice. Nearly everyone figures quarterback Case Keenum will finish the deal in 2009. Tulsa and UTEP are next in line, but several paces behind. In the East Division, a slight edge goes to East Carolina, being the surprise defending conference champions, with 18 regulars back in Greenville. Southern Miss is loaded as well, with 16 starters and they visit ECU on Nov. 28. The only true unanimous choice in C-USA action is UAB will finish last.

Independents
1) Notre Dame
2) Navy
3) Army

Analysis- Being the football coach and quarterback at Notre Dame are always pressure-packed positions, but maybe never more than this year. It’s BCS or join the unemployment line for Charley Weis in South Bend. Most magazines have Jimmy Clausen rated 13th to 23rd best quarterback in the country, if he’s not in Top 10 by season’s end, he and the Irish will have failed. The beat keeps rolling along for the Navy, with another winning season and minor bowl to compete in. Normally conservative Army stepped out of character and brought in Rich Ellerson to change results of 12 straight losing seasons. Ellerson was known innovator at Cal Poly and will install triple-option offense with passing efficiency a real key.

Part 2 - Friday

In a hurry on a Thursday

It has been awhile since we had back to back losing days, but were not worried, as our track record has been outstanding for months. All plays are in the afternoon starting with an 83.1 percent System in Chi-town. The Top Trend is in Crap Cake land and is 7-0 and Kyle still likes a certain from in the Big Apple even after in rains. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday - I was flipping channels last night and came across Wayne Allen Root on Sean Hannity on Fox. You won't ever here me talk politics (I prefer to make fun of both parties) but I wanted to hear what one of the better all-time handicapping scammers had to say. Root for those that don't know is part of the Libertarian party now, as a disgruntled Bush Republican. Hannity had one of his Fox cronies and a Obama apologist, along with Root on panel. It was humorous to watch Hannity and the others either ignore or dismiss anything the now gray-haired WAR had to say. Though he gave the appearance of confidence, he was looked down upon by these political pundits. I know he wants to win some political office, but it seems Root should stick to making false claims and beefing up his (handicapping) record, just like a politician.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Houston, with a money line of +175 to +250, after allowing 10 runs or more. Since 2005, 98 winners and only 20 losers.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Bradley Bergesen and Baltimore are 7-0 as home favorites of -150 or less.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kyle picked up two other winners last night and still likes the Mets in Game 1 with Johan Santana.

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Taken down The Man this Wednesday

Got blistered pretty good with 1-3 day. Hopefully we can climb back on the winning bandwagon, with a quality system that is 80.7 percent. This hopefully will lead to Top Trend being a winner from a top-line hurler. A new member of the LCC offers his first ever Free Play, hope it’s a winner. Good Luck and a lot of hope I’m asking for.

What I though yesterday – I’m glad Brett Favre decided to retire. I had the pleasure of watching him twice a year or more in person for much of his career and he gave me plenty of thrills. Though as adults, we don’t have many sports heroes like when we were kids, he’s probably the closest thing to one for me in my adult life. The last several years of shanigans (my opinion) have placed a foul taste in my mouth and others about No. 4 and I’ve had no trouble ripping him for what he’s done, in spite of having several publicly painful things happen to him. I now applaud him for stepping aside and instead selling for Sears and other opportunities that will come his way.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs like Arizona, with a money line of +125 to +175, who are typical NL offensive team scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against a capable starter (ERA of 3.70 or less), after a loss by two runs or less. This system is 21-5 since 2005, 80.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) There are trends today with higher win percentages, but this one caught my eye. Roy Halladay and Toronto are 41-4 vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs a game on the season, winning by 2.9 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kyle of the LCC is 8-3 the last three days and believes the Mets with will keep playing well, and clip Colorado.

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New Methodology for Betting NFL Win Totals

This time of year, football sports bettors are putting together their thoughts about how certain teams might perform in the upcoming NFL season. They are picking up magazines, reading thru a variety of there favorite websites, all intended to collect information for the season ahead. One aspect looked at profoundly for the sports bettor this time of year is futures wagers. These wagers involve betting on team’s total wins, winning the division, conference and the Super Bowl. Here, we will focus on team win totals and a different way of looking at trying to find value.

For those that have read any of my previous articles, you know I’m big on score differentials in almost every sport. Baseball tends to be the easiest to make sense of these numbers, because of the number of games played and runs (points) being scored one at a time. I recently wrote the Cincinnati Reds might have second half problems based on runs scored and allowed and that the Cleveland Indians should not be forgotten because they still have a potent lineup with descent peripheral numbers and they have won six of last 10 despite being out of pennant contention.

While I have followed the same numbers in football, I haven’t always been able to determine a way to view them, until now.

What I’m looking for is can last year’s points scored and allowed results lead to winning wagers on win totals? Football is completely different because of roster changes at key positions, schedules being significantly different from one year to the next and injuries often time being even more important with so few games played.

Using the same method I borrowed from Bill James from his Baseball Abstract days, I went through and devised a methodology to determine accurate win percentages based on points scored and given up.

I’ll use the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers as the example. The Steelers scored 347 points during the regular season and begrudgingly conceded 223. Take both numbers and square them.

347 x 347 =120409
223 x 223 = 49729

Add the two numbers together and divide the points scored into the total to achieve percentage.

120409 divided by 170138 = .707

What I found about doing this for football as compared to baseball is you have to add .050 for teams with 10 or more wins and subtract .050 for teams that won six or less games. If a team has won seven, eight or nine contests, take the number at face value.

Thus for Pittsburgh, take the .707 percentage, add .050 and new total is .757. Last year, during the regular season, coach Mike Tomlin’s squad was 12-4, with win percentage of .750.

Let’s look back at past teams for proof this should work. The 2007 Detroit Lions were 7-9, as were the Chicago Bears. The Lions scored 346 points and allowed 444, while the Bears totaled 334 and surrendered 348. Calculating the numbers, Detroit should have won 6.03 games and Chicago 7.6. The conclusion is the Lions probably overachieved and were set up to do worse, which they did with flying colors, in completing first 0-16 season. The Bears played about as expected given their numbers.

With only 16 games in the regular season, any difference of one or greater is noteworthy.

Another example is Jacksonville in 2006, which finished 8-8, scoring 371 points and giving up 274, a positive difference of 97. Based on the figures, the Jaguars should have won 10.3 games, not eight and they went on to 11-5 record and made the AFC Conference semi-finals in 2007.

What teams meet the criteria for success or failure in 2009? The San Diego Chargers deserved credit for coming back and winning AFC West, though Denver shared equal blame in failing to win. The Chargers garnered 439 points, while permitting 347. This means the Bolts should have won 9.8 games last season, not finishing 8-8. Sportsbook.com has them listed as Ov9.5 wins for the upcoming campaign, which is reasonable wager given the players coming back and change of direction to Phillip Rivers team.

The Green Bay Packers were 6-10, through no fault of Aaron Rodgers, who played beyond most expectations. The Pack was 419 and 380 in points scored and allowed. Using this method of interpretation, Green Bay should have won almost eight games (7.9) and could be poised to surprise in 2009 and surpass the Un9 number posted on them.

Three NFL teams could be poised to fall in 2009. The Indianapolis Colts have made a coaching change as Tony Dungy retired, which means change and the defense will see the biggest alteration. New head coach Jim Caldwell may see a few growing pains, as last year’s 12-4 club projected out at 10.6 victories.

Miami found lightening in a bottle on the way to 11-5 season, after one win the prior season. The Dolphins only had a point differential of +28, which extrapolated out totals 9.4 wins.

Finally, the aforementioned Denver Broncos lost a three game lead with three games to play to blow the division title with unfortunate 8-8 record. That led to the firing of Mike Shanahan and new coach Josh McDaniels poorly handled the Jay Cutler situation, leaving Denver without a franchise-type quarterback and with Kyle Orton. The Broncos -78 point differential was most similar to Seattle (-98) who finished 4-12. Denver’s numbers projected to 6.4 wins and they are listed as Un7 for upcoming season.

I’m not suggesting these plays are rock solid; take them to the bank action. In the time allotted for research completed, this came to make sense with verifiable proof these numbers don’t lie. If you liked any of these teams to begin with, just one more reason to place a wager.

One last thing, if you choose to do some searching of your own, forget about the Tennessee Titans. The expression “all rules don’t apply to everyone” perfectly fits Tennessee with Jeff Fisher as coach. His teams consistently overachieve and they are the newer version of “Just win baby”.

Nats streak in jeopardy facing gruesome system

Breakup the Nationals! That’s what New York, San Diego and Milwaukee are thinking. The Mets and Padres lost series to Washington last week on the road and Milwaukee could become their third straight victim with a victory either tonight or tomorrow. The Nationals have won four in a row and six of eight, picking up seven units of profit for the shrewd sports bettor.

The Nationals are ninth in runs scored in the National League at 4.4 per game and are hotter than scalding water from the plate, averaging 9.5 runs during this winning streak, batting .342 as a team. Washington’s pitching staff has many faults and several ghastly numbers, however, they have held six of last eight opponents to four or less runs.

Washington, honestly (those two words are an oxymoron) should have a better record than 32-68 (-30.3 units), but a group of young starters are going to make mistakes as part of the growing process. Where things really fall apart is when the bullpen has gotten involved.

These non-starters have themselves accounted for 30 losses, while gaining only 11 victories. They have collective ERA of 5.24, having allowed 325 base hits in just over 309 innings, plus walking 173 more batters. Washington is the only team in the Major Leagues with a save percentage below .500, at 44.1 percent, blowing 19 saves in 34 attempts.

This month has been a full-blown disaster for Milwaukee, with seven wins in 23 games, which has seen them drift downwardly to fourth place in the NL Central, after starting July in first place. Brewers’ batters for the most part are holding up their end of the bargain, totaling 10 or more hits in 13 contests this month, but the pitching staff deserves a Dick Enberg “Oh my”.

Milwaukee has lost seven of last nine contests and no wonder, since the pitching staff has ERA of almost seven (6.81), with starting pitchers slightly worse, surrendering 6.89 earned runs and 10 home runs during this time span.

Tonight’s starter Manny Parra, has made a season long contribution to Milwaukee’s below .500 mark (49-51, -6.5 units) with 4-8 record. Parra has ERA of 6.42 and the Brew Crew has won exactly 25 percent of the left-hander’s starts (4-12) in 2009.

Many sports bettors don’t have the cold detachment of the oddsmakers to create a line objectively, based on a body of work, not just recent trends. This is why DiamondSportsbook.com for example has Milwaukee as -195 money line favorites, despite many reasons not to play the Brewers. Here is one outstanding reason to back the Brewers tonight.

Play Against road teams with average offensive, scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against a faulty NL starting pitcher with ERA of 5.70 or higher, with a bad bullpen, whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season.

How this system has proven to work is the road club will return to typical numbers they produce. The opposing teams starting pitcher could well have better outing against an ordinary offensive club and if the game is close in the later innings, the road team’s bullpen will probably find a way to lose the game.

Dating back to when Madeleine Albright became first female Secretary of State of the United States (1997), this system is 34-8, 81 percent. In fact, this system has been especially lethal in the last five years with 20-3 record, with average winning margin of almost two runs.

Seeking Tuesday Triumphs

Wasn’t that something about King Felix getting crowned to keep Seattle’s negative streak alive? We bounce right back off losing day with three winners, just like the blog says. Only one top notch system and it involves two AL East squads. Throwing out two Top Trends that are combined 22-0. The Free Plays continue to percolate and Mark has a parlay on tap. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – Aerosmith can still rock with the best of them. Steven Tyler doesn’t run around like he used to, but still a very good frontman. Joe Perry has more active role these days, maybe because of Guitar Hero or possibility to take a little pressure off Tyler. ZZ Top was good and they showed popular MTV videos from the 80’s when they played the songs. My daughter knew most of the songs and enjoyed it, having heard them growing up.

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Free Baseball System-1) The only qualify system today suggests to PLAY ON home favorites like Boston with a money line of -175 to -250, with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after a win by four runs or more. Over the last dozen years, this system checks in 83-17, 83 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Going to step out a bit and provide two trends on teams off losses. The L.A. Dodgers are 10-0 this season off a pair of defeats and Tampa Bay is 12-0 in home games after allowing nine runs or more.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Mark moved up to 8-2, with his top play cashing yesterday. Tonight he has a Yankees and Red Sox money line parlay.

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Oddmakers allowing Miami Dolphins to play respect card

The five year win pattern of the Miami Dolphins resembles most bettors wagering accounts over the same period. Starting in 2004, four wins, nine wins (2005), six wins (2006), one win (2007), followed up with last year’s miraculous turnaround that led to division crown and 11 conquests. The oddsmakers were so unimpressed with last year’s performance; they have established them as Un7.5 total wins for 2009 campaign.

You can’t blame the messenger for setting the numbers, like those at Bookmaker.com; all they can do is look at the facts and make a highly educated prediction. And while 50 percent of the football public outside of Dade County still thinks the Miami’s head coach’s name is Tony Soprano, from the TV show, the real coach, Tony Sparano, can utilize the “lack of respect card”, placing it in his back pocket this August as motivational tool. They question is, are the oddmakers wrong?

A team coming off a 15-loss season should be happy to beat almost anyone to get back on track. Last year’s complete turnaround was surrounded by many factors. The first was the hiring of Bill Parcells, who set a different tone in South Beach; he wanted football players committed to winning, not just earning a living. The hiring of Sparano was the right fit, as his contagious enthusiasm and positive belief system filtered throughout the locker room, which was less antagonistic to Parcells often acidic tongue. Lastly, Chad Pennington had been discarded by the Jets and had a chip on his shoulder the length of Ocean Drive.

After losing four of first six contests, Miami started to sizzle like a Caribbean nightclub. The Dolphins won nine of last 10 regular season games (5-5 ATS), including last five, of which four were on the road. A closer look reveals mostly beatable teams and Miami did a splendid job in defeating those clubs. In there last 10 contests, only New England and the Jets had winning records at the end of the season. With plenty of hype surrounding a rebuilt Patriots team, the Fins were squashed at home 48-28 as two-point underdogs. Miami won the division beating Jets team in free fall 24-17, in the last game of the regular season. Certainly noteworthy accomplishment given they manufactured one win the previous year; however they were the better team at that point, as customary +3 points on the road proved.

This year’s schedule looks like a massive upgrade, starting with trading the NFC West for the much better NFC South. Only Tampa Bay looks to be worse than .500 team in this group. In the AFC, the West contingent of four teams has been exchanged for arguably the best division in football, the AFC South. This switch of divisions alone could account for two or three losses, even if Miami plays at the same level as last season.

New England is presumed to be better with Tom Brady back in control and Buffalo and the Jets are thought to be similar, with the Bills a touch better and the Flyboys a little worse.

Miami would not seem to have the same luxury of slow start, followed by big finish. The first three games are at Atlanta, home to Indianapolis on Monday night, followed by a short week cross-country journey to San Diego. The final six encounters read this way in exact order - @ Buffalo, New England, @ Jacksonville, @ Tennessee, Houston and Pittsburgh. Depending on various factors, the Dolphins might only be favored twice in last six tilts.

Pick up any fantasy football magazine and you will have a difficult time finding Chad Pennington in the upper half of quarterback ratings. True, winning and fantasy football are completely different, however does anyone really expect Pennington to improve? Since becoming a starter in the Big Apple in 2002, Pennington has averaged 15 starts in the even-numbered years, in the three odd-numbered years, less than seven.

Ronnie Brown should have greater offensive impact as running back and the offensive line should be even more cohesive with a year under their belts. The wide receivers are average, as Ted Ginn Jr. has shown little improvement as route runner, though Pennington and tight end Anthony Fasano clicked.

The Fins defense improved greatly last season to 15th in total defense and ninth in points allowed. With a schedule of much better offenses, linebacker Joey Porter will have to lead the younger players by example. Porter was revitalized in playing 3-4 defense again and Jason Ferguson has to be the anchor at nose tackle. The secondary allowed yards (227.5, ranked 25th), but yanked 18 interceptions out of the air.

Turnover margin is the single biggest influence on any team and Miami was No.1 last year at +17. It is infrequently teams come anywhere close to replicating high turnover figures the next season. Recent examples include the unbeaten Patriots going from +16 to +1, as record fell from 16-0 to 11-5. In 2006, Baltimore had 13-3 record and +15 in turnover margin. The following season, racked with injuries, a complete reversal to -17 and 5-11 campaign. Seattle was a 10-6 division champion in 2007, with +10 on turnovers, last season, -7 and dismal 4-12 season.

Just after 2010 arrives, we’ll have clear idea how right or wrong the oddsmakers were on Miami, here is one vote for the Under, with 7-9 season for disappointed Dolphins fans.

Pitching Matchups to ponder

In the National League, two games standout Tuesday, one because of its importance and who the starting pitcher’s are and the other strictly because the two hurlers have dominating potential. These two contests overshadow the rest the other six games in the senior circuit and should be entertaining for sports bettors and baseball fans alike.

Houston at Chicago

The Chicago Cubs (52-45, -1.9 units) played liked they preferred first place, as Alfonso Soriano hit a walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 13th inning last night that allowed the Cubs to stay at the top of the division. Chicago has played fewer games to date than any NL Central team; however is three games clear of any competitor in the loss column.

Ryan Dempster (5-5, 4.09) comes off the DL today for Chicago, after missing just over three weeks with a fractured toe after jumping over the dugout railing to go on the field and celebrate a win over Milwaukee on July 5. Dempster has loved pitching at Wrigley Field and is 4-1 there this season. Bookmaker.com has established the Cubs as -110 money line home favorites, which suits Dempster, who is 32-12 at home when the money line is +125 to -125 during his big league career. (Team's Record)

He will go to battle against Roy Oswalt (6-4, 3.66) of Houston. Earlier this season, whispers were circulating maybe Oswalt was no longer a first-rate pitcher. In his last six starts, Oswalt has proven otherwise to his critics. The right-hander has 2.00 ERA in his last six outings, with the Astros having won the last five. He and his Astros teammates are 20-5 vs. a NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse.

The Cubs will be chasing a sixth straight win and are 47-24 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. This division battle begins at 8:05 Eastern on WGN.

Philadelphia at Arizona

The Phillies (57-40, +10.2 units) are thankful Arizona has a retractable roof in downtown Phoenix, since tonight’s game time temperature is expected to be around 115 degrees again. Philadelphia hopes Cole Hamels (6-5, 4.66) can regain late season form from a year ago and put some heat on the Diamondbacks. With the Phillies having won 18 of last 21 games, they will be facing one of the hottest pitchers in baseball all season in Dan Haren (10-5, 2.14).

Many have speculated Hamels heavy workload from a season ago has taken a toll this season, with a number poor performances and missed starts. The lefthander has looked better lately, allowing four runs in 12 innings in his last two starts. This will be a good test for Hamels to see if he really has regained prior form, since he is 2-3, with hefty 5.81 ERA on the road. In the past, Hamels and the Phils have feasted on revolting teams like Arizona (43-57, -16.2 units), with 13-3 road record against losing teams.

The D-Backs play a whole lot better when Haren in on the mound, winning 13 of 20 games, with the strong possibility of emerging victorious five other times if they would have had any offensive production. Haren showed a human side in his last start, charged with four runs on eight hits in five innings against the Pittsburgh, as he struggled with command. That was only the second time all season Haren surrendered more than three runs, his first such outing since May 23 in Oakland.

Haren has been a shutdown starter, with 7-0 record after the opposing team scored five or more runs. (D-Backs Record) Arizona opened as a -135 money line favorite, but sports bettors quickly pounded that line and the Snakes are now -112. That doesn’t change the fact Haren and Arizona are 9-3 as -110 to -150 home favorites, with the Phillies 11-3 in road games after a win by four runs or more this season.

Haren will throw the first pitch in the desert at 9:40 Eastern and fans can watch in local markets or on MLB.TV.

Monday, Monday I still love that day

An almost odd losing day gives us 166-104-3, 61.4 percent mark over three and half months. With yesterday killer system a failure, we’ll try and come right back with another that is 93.2 percent. If you like Felix Hernandez as much as I do, you at least have to pause with Trend that is out there tonight. Free Plays are broiling and Mark has one for tonight. Good Luck.

Activity Report – No baseball viewing or listening tonight, its ZZ Top and Aerosmith on the west side of Phoenix. Temperature at show time should be around 109, that’s degrees.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, who couldn’t break a air-filled plastic bag with a bat, hitting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a molten starting pitcher, with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. Pittsburgh goes against Tim Lincecum for a system that is 55-4, 93.2 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) This won’t be official play because King Felix is pitching for Seattle, nonetheless it does make it a bit scary to support the Seattle when they are 0-18 after allowing 10 runs or more. On the record, Philadelphia is the play since they are 10-1 in road games after two or more consecutive Overs this season, winning by 2.2 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Free Play is 14-2 the last 16 days and Mark of the Left Coast Connection was 6-1 this weekend and likes Texas to tame the Tigers.

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Time for Rays to Roll

You will have to forgive the Tampa Bay Rays for possibly not giving their best performance on Sunday, losing 5-1 to Toronto. Tampa Bay still won the series north of the border and completed one of the better road trips of the year with 6-4 record. While it’s true, every game will count the same no matter when it’s played over a 162-game schedule, some games and series have more meaning then others, which would be the case starting Monday night for the Rays.

Manager Joe Madden’s club is 54-45 (+1.3 units) and trails the first place New York Yankees by 6.5 games in the AL East. In order for Tampa Bay to start closing the gap, they have to do no worse than win two out of three encounters in opening up big nine-game homestand.

“This is a crucial homestand,” Pat Burrell said. “I think it will dictate a lot, especially with the (July 31 trade) deadline coming up. If we have a real good homestand, I mean real good; we’re going to be in a good place.”

The Rays will try to build on recent success they have enjoyed at Tropicana Field, where they have won 20 of last 25. Tampa Bay knows the Bronx Bombers have explosive offensive, which they have managed to turnaround to their favor with 22-6 mark at home vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .345 or better.

James Shields (6-6, 3.70 ERA) will be given the assignment of containing New York and he’s had more than his share of problems. Shields’ hasn’t won a game since June 20 and his ERA is 5.89 in his last three starts. Fortunately, he loves pitching at The Trop and is 4-2 there this season and with the Rays off a loss, Shields and mates are 8-2 on home turf.

The Yankees (60-38, +1.2 units) leave home having won 10 of 11 and open an important road trip in West Florida. Besides facing Tampa Bay, New York will have four in the Windy City with the White Sox and head to Toronto for two tilts before returning home to take on the challenge of Boston.

The Yankees haven’t always been dominant during this streak, but they found ways to win. Joe Girardi’s veteran club is 12-2 in last 14 contests against right-hander hurlers and has conquered teams with winning records to the tune of 15-5. A.J. Burnett (9-4, 3.74) has settled into the role the New York front office had in mind when they doled out $82.5 million contract to him. Over his last six starts, Burnett has been dominating, sporting 5-1 record and 1.82 ERA.

DiamondSportsbook.com has New York as -110 money line road favorites, with total Un9. The Yanks have won 12 of 14 when Burnett is wearing the favorite cap and they are 41-17 as chalk. New York is 6-0 UNDER in Burnett’s last six starts. Though Shields is effective pitcher at home, Yankees hitters have brought out the worst in him with 1-6 record, 5.73 ERA in eight career starts. He’ll seek previous magic which has allowed the Rays to win 27 of his 35 home starts, including four of five as underdog. Since leaving the name Devil Rays behind, Tampa Bay is 13-3 UNDER as a home underdog of +100 to +125.

Game 1 of this weighty series is set to commence at 7:08 Eastern and can be viewed on YES and Fox Sports Florida, along with MLB.TV. Burnett is 8-4 versus the Rays in his career and New York is 12-9 the last few years as visitor where Big Stein resides.

No Slack Sunday Info

Keep those 2-1 days comin’! Our goal today is that or more and Sal has been a huge part of recent success and has another Free Play. The Top Trend examines how the Royals play in a particular situation and the Best System is a virgin this season; however is the highest of quality at 91.8 percent. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday –Including tonight, the Detroit Tigers have seven more games left with the Chicago White Sox. The Tigers lead the season series 7-4 and if they can finish with a winning record over the Pale Hose, it will be just the second time in 18 years they will have won a season series against Chicago, remarkable.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites like the Red Sox with a money line of -175 to 250, who are slightly below average AL hitting team at .265 or less, against a passable starting pitcher (ERA of 4.20 or less), in the second half of season. This is the first time this system has appeared this year and why it is so potent is because if the team is this large a favorite, given the situation as explained, they should win. Since 1997, 45-4, 91.8 percent. Gulp!

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Kansas City Royals are 1-11 as a home underdog of +125 or more this season, losing by 3.2 runs per contest.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal’s was 3-1 again on Saturday making him 28-7, 75 percent and he believes Houston is just too hot for the Mets.

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Sunday Night Baseball Preview

Carlos Guillen’s return from the disabled list might be the spark the Detroit Tigers need to help them remain on top of the AL Central. The first-place Tigers look to stay perfect with Guillen back and complete their first four-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox in almost 21 years Sunday night at Comerica Park. These division rivals entered this series tied atop the AL Central, but after Detroit (52-44, +5.3 units) swept a doubleheader Friday and rallied for a 4-3, 10-inning victory Saturday, the Tigers have a three-game lead over the second-place White Sox.

Guillen’s return has helped put the Tigers on the verge of their first four-game sweep of the White Sox (50-48, +2.4 units) since Aug. 18-21, 1988.

After missing over 2 1/2 months with a shoulder injury, Guillen went 3 for 7 with a homer Friday and 2 for 5 with two RBIs, including the game-winning single Saturday to help the Tigers to a third straight victory after losing five of six. “I’m excited to be back, and I’m happy that I’m helping us win,” said Guillen, a lifetime .330 hitter against the White Sox.


While Detroit has struggled to consistently produce at the plate, the presence of a veteran like Guillen should make opposing pitchers a bit more careful when facing a lineup that also features All-Stars Miguel Cabrera, Brandon Inge and Curtis Granderson and the Tigers are 17-6 with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season.


“He (Guillen) makes the whole offense different,” shortstop Ramon Santiago told the Tigers’ official Web site.


Granderson’s double off Chicago closer Bobby Jenks with two outs in the ninth tied the game Saturday. Jenks, who has failed to convert his last two save chances, has a 9.45 ERA in his last six appearances.


“I’m not even mad,” Jenks said another shaky outing. “The way things had gone in the last week, we had worked on stuff mechanically, and we got the little kinks worked out. (Saturday), everything was sharp.”


A.J. Pierzynski homered for one of his four hits and Scott Podsednik added three hits with an RBI for the White Sox, who haven’t been able to carry over the momentum from Mark Buehrle’s perfect game against Tampa Bay on Thursday and they have fallen to 8-21 in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs a game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.


“When he pitched his last no-hitter in 2007, we lost five in a row, and now we’ve lost three,” manager Ozzie Guillen said. “Mark Buehrle, this is all your fault.”


Podsednik is 7 for 17 (.412) in his last four games, while Pierzynski is 6 for 9 in this series. Chicago looks to bounce back while facing Detroit rookie Rick Porcello (9-6, 4.40 ERA) for the first time and they have lost seven contests against right-handed hurlers.


Looking to lighten the 20-year-old’s workload, Porcello made his first start since July 5, and allowed five runs and nine hits in five innings of a 9-7 win over Seattle on Tuesday. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 9.45 ERA in his last three starts.


“I just have to stay sharp physically and mentally,” Porcello told the Tigers’ official Web site. Porcello should benefit from his Tiger teammates being 18-6 at home against teams with winning record.


The White Sox counter with Clayton Richard (3-3, 5.00), who allowed one run and four hits in eight innings, but didn’t factor in the decision of a 3-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Tuesday after Jenks couldn’t hold a one-run lead in the ninth. Despite the outcome, it was a step in the right direction for Richard, whose 0-2 with a 7.82 ERA in his last three starts. In his only start versus Detroit, the left-hander allowed three runs while walking five in 4 2/3 innings, but left without a decision in a 5-4 loss to Detroit on June 8.


DiamondSportsbook.com has Detroit as -140 money line favorites, with the total listed at Un9.5. The Tigers are 12-2 at Comerica Park versus left-hand starters and 16-5 UNDER after three consecutive games versus a division rival this year. The White are 19-39 as road underdogs of +150 or less and are 19-8 UNDER vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game.

First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 Eastern on ESPN and manager Jim Leyland’s club is 9-0 in home games vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 in 2009.




Jeff Mezydlo, STATS Senior writer and Doug Upstone contributed to this article.