Eagles vs. Cowboys Betting Matchup

The Dallas Cowboys have exorcised one devilish dilemma, winning in December and will look to make it two in a row, trying to find a way to emerge victorious in the postseason. To do so, Dallas will have to trip up Philadelphia for a third consecutive time this season.

The Cowboys swept the regular-season series for the first time since 2005 from the Eagles, and Tony Romo continued his stellar play down the stretch, throwing for 311 yards and two touchdowns. Over his last six games, Romo has thrown for 1,859 yards and 11 scores with just two interceptions.

Philadelphia was thought to be a real threat in the NFC riding a six game winning streak. But as last week pointed out, if the Eagles offense doesn’t keep changing numbers on the scoreboard, they are in trouble. Philly’s defense has become a conundrum, yielding 20 or more points in seven of last nine games, after surrendering that many points just once in their first seven outings.

Andy Reid’s offense has scored only 16 points in two games against Dallas this season, which suggests the Cowboys D is way ahead of Donovan McNabb and the rest of the offense. Philadelphia played tight last week with multiple dropped passes and once again they were too quick to drop the running game (10 carries) after averaging over 28 rush attempts during winning streak. The Eagles are 14-4 ATS in road games revenging a road loss against opponent.

History is on Philadelphia’s side when it comes to the postseason and production. Since 2000, Philadelphia has advanced to the playoffs seven times (6-1 ATS) and won each of its seven opening games.

The last time Dallas won a playoff game, “Independence Day” was the top movie grossing movie back in 1996. The Cowboys defense finished second in the league in points allowed at 15.6 and has better than that in the last nine weeks giving up 13.2. Dallas took full advantage of Nick Cole as he moved from guard to center for injured Jamaal Jackson. Cole will need help in stopping NT Jay Ratliff, which frees up Cowboys inside linebackers in A-gaps for run blitzes.

Bookmaker.com has Dallas one-point heavier favorite than a week ago at four, with total at 45. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS off a win and Romo will look to exploit Eagles linebackers who have trouble keeping track of tight ends. The Boys are 6-1 UNDER as chalk.

Philadelphia is undersized defensively and must find a way to shed blocks quicker. The offense has to find rhythm expediently, which blends the run with the pass. If these two factors are found, Eagles can pull surprise and improve on 7-0 ATS record as road dogs of 3.5 to 10-points.

Philly is 10-4 ATS in Dallas and they are 7-2-1 UNDER in last 10 playoff games.

Jets vs. Bengals Betting Matchup

All the NFL analysts on television and radio keep saying the same thing don’t read too much into the New York Jets clocking Cincinnati 37-0 last week. The Jets had to win and the Bengals had nothing to play for blah, blah, blah. In theory that makes sense, but is losing by such a horrific score ever a good thing, especially when you have to play the same team again the next week?

The motivation angle works that Cincinnati will be more fired up after being throttled and will be back on home field before adoring fans and bring full playbook as opposed to Cliff Notes version they used last week.

There are a number of troubling signs for Bengals fans despite the dismissal. Cincinnati is 3-4 in its last seven games and has covered the spread just one time. They have scored more than 20 points just twice since November and one of those was 23 against Detroit, not exactly newsworthy. Say what you will about playing possum, but after allowing 257 yards on the ground to the Jets, Cincy is 4-15 ATS after surrendering 200 or more rushing yards last game.

Cincinnati has lost four defensive starters since the Week 3 of the season and they plainly are not as good as they were earlier in the year. Carson Palmer has really only played one outstanding game the second half of the season, when he threw for 293 net yards at San Diego. Granted the focus has been running the ball more, nonetheless the loss of Chris Henry as a player has impacted the passing game tremendously.

The Jets defense ranked No.1 in total defense and Darrelle Revis had a special year at corner. He certainly has the ability to take away the Bengals top receiver, Chad Ochocinco. As Coach Rex Ryan pointed out, New York at least in theory is built for the playoffs. They feature a strong defense with top-rated running game at 172.2 yards per game, led by Thomas Jones and are 12-2 ATS when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards.

Coach Ryan made no specific reference to quarterback Mark Sanchez and for good reason, since he is realistically their top liability coming into the game. Undoubtedly, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will do everything he can to protect his rookie signal, but will have to deal with Cincinnati’s run blitzes on early downs after going totally vanilla a week ago.

Sanchez will be forced to complete slant passes or quick outs against solid Bengals corners Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall. The Jets traded for Braylon Edwards during the season and it is his time to be a difference-maker. The Flyboys are 6-2 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning home records.

The Bengals, making just their second postseason appearance in 19 years, may not stick around long, unless the running game clicks and Palmer starts completing some passes. Expect Cincinnati to run crossing routes to either free up Ochocinco or create space for other pass-catchers to be a factor. The Bengals offensive line has to bring it and create lanes for Cedric Benson.

Bookmaker.com has Cincinnati favored by 2.5-points with total of 33.5. The Cats are 0-7 ATS as favorites this season and 0-8 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points a game the last three years. New York is hardly a picture of prosperity with 2-10 ATS record after two straight wins by 10 or more points; however are 8-3 ATS as road dogs catching three or fewer points.

The home team has covered the last four meetings and Cincy is 9-0 UNDER as a home favorite.

College Basketball Weekend Action and Note

I just want to thankk everyone that dropped by the last 10 days, things have been sparce around 3Daily Winners. I had a horrible cold and have not done anything besides work. No betting, no anything. I finally went to the doctor yesterday and got the drugs I needed to finally break this. I running well behind on many things, but should be back to normal by Monday and might even have stuff for the weekend besides the NFC Wild Card games. Again thanks.

The conference action goes into high gear this weekend, this a number of super matchups that immediately will have an impact on league play throughout the country. Saturday will showcase contests from the Big East, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12 and the Mountain West to name a few. On Sunday, after getting a real scare from Cornell, top-ranked Kansas travels to Knoxville for late afternoon matchup with Tennessee. Lines from Bookmaker.com

Saturday, Jan. 9

Connecticut at Georgetown (-5, 132) 12:00E ESPN

The Huskies (11-3, 4-7-1 ATS) are slowly growing as a team. The offense and defense are not quite to coach Jim Calhoun’s standards, however he’s finding more than enough to build on. Early in the season Calhoun was sometimes frustrated by different player’s efforts, that is no longer the case as he is instead more concerned with the execution. Kemba Walker and Stanley Robinson in particular have been playing well and the UConn team shooting percentage has been rising to present 46.5 percent, running the offense more precisely. Connecticut is 15-6 ATS in January the last few years.

Georgetown (11-2, 5-4 ATS) will be among the teams with the least amount of depth in the Big East, with only nine true scholarship players on the roster along with walk-ons. The Hoyas have a solid seven man rotation which can matchup with almost any team they will face in the league. The issue becomes when they incur foul trouble, suffer an injury that could take a player down for a number of games or if poor performance leaves coach John Thompson III seeking other answers. G-Town has been notoriously poor home team the last few seasons and is 9-21 ATS on home court over the last three seasons.

Since 1997, Connecticut is 4-2 SU and ATS at Georgetown with the total also 4-2 Over.

Purdue at Wisconsin (+1.5,125) 1:30E BTN

Among the couple of different Purdue logos’ floating around is a train with the name built into the black and gold logo. This turns out to be a very apt description of the Boilermakers (14-0, 8-6 ATS) basketball team, as they have steamrolled the competition for the most part this campaign. With the shooting eye still not always in focus, coach Matt Painter’s club has focused on two of his staples, defense and rebounding. Purdue players are so attentive to passing angles they clog the passing lanes like rush hour traffic and are ferocious rebounders, which is particularly important against a club like Wisconsin. The Boilers are 4-10 ATS after a spread cover.

In making preseason prognostications it is impossible to know how certain players will react in college, negatively or positively from year to year. Badgers forward Jon Leuer grew 10 inches in high school and the last 12 months his weight and agility have caught up to his size and he now ranks in the Top 10 in the conference in at least a half dozen categories. This helps explain why Wisconsin (12-3, 8-5 ATS) has been so productive with guards Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon running the show. The Badgers normally have low turnover figures which should limit Purdue’s scoring chances and Wisky is 25-8 ATS at home versus teams scoring 77 or more points a game.

The Boilermakers have won and covered four straight over Wisconsin including last two in Madison.

Duke at Georgia Tech (+7, 145) 2:00E ESPN

To this point of the season, this is a different Duke team then in the last few seasons under coach Mike Krzyzewski. The Blue Devils (13-1, 9-4 ATS) still have a great deal panache from the perimeter, however this season Brian Zoubek and the other Duke front court players have given them more production in the paint area and they can negate some other strength’s of opponents. This gives Coach K more options against bigger teams instead of having to play small, which has been the case in recent years. The Dukies are a stellar 63-34 ATS in January.

After falling to Florida State in ACC lid-lifter, Georgia Tech (11-3, 6-3 ATS) returns to conference play with three challenging conflicts starting with Duke. Coach Paul Hewitt brought in a sensational freshmen class and has played four of them extensively, often starting three of them. The Yellow Jackets have been buzzing around on defense, holding opponents to sensational 35.9 percent shooting, which has helped them to fast start. Against teams like Duke, Georgia Tech has to put the ball in the basket with greater consistency to improve on 30-14 ATS record home underdog or pick.

Duke is 10-1 and 8-3 ATS at Alexander Memorial Coliseum in last 11 visits.

Kansas State at Missouri (-5,158) 2:00E ESPN2

On the first of December, coach Frank Martin called out his talented squad, after narrowly defeating Fort Hays State, from the lower regions of collegiate basketball. Accepting responsibility, Kansas State players has been bulldozer, knocking down everything in its path, against pretty descent non-conference competition. Big 12 plays commences for K-State (13-1, 7-2 ATS) at a rugged venue in Columbia. Junior guard Jacob Pullen is among the scoring leaders in the conference, but he is receiving plenty of help from the likes Denis Clemente and others. The Wildcats are creating more turnovers than Pillsbury and are 15-3 ATS after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half.

The Missouri players could get arrested with all the thefts of the basketball they have had this season. The Tigers (12-3, 5-4 ATS) have had at least 10 steals in 13 different contests thanks to players like Zaire Taylor, Kim English and Keith Ramsey. Their quickness and understanding of coach Mike Anderson pressure defense makes this a dangerous club even if the baseline players are still trying to win jobs. The Tigers are 9-2 ATS at home vs. teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game over the last two seasons.

Missouri has mastered Kansas State at home with 10 wins in last 12 attempts, but is only .500 ATS.

UNLV at New Mexico (-4, 145) 4:00E VERSUS

This will be the close of three stern encounters for UNLV (12-3, 9-4 ATS), having lost the last two to USC and BYU. The Rebels go 11 deep and expect coach Lon Kruger to tighten that number down to nine. Though UNLV has played good defense, the beleif is the continual shuffling of players has at times caused offensive stagnation, with players not getting the ball where they can be most effective. Followers of the program see this team improving on offense, if they run patterned plays and get to the free throw lane. The Rebels are just 1-6 ATS in last seven conference clashes.

New Mexico (14-2, 10-5 ATS) has played better than anticipated, and the same five players have started every game. The Lobos have been outstanding in valuing possession of the ball, committing the fewest turnovers in the Mountain West. Point guard Dairese Gary has a ridiculous 5-to-1 assist/turnover margin and JC transfer Darington Hobson has shown a superb all-around game. New Mexico is 31-12 ATS at The Pit the last three seasons.

The Lobos are 6-3 and 3-5-1 ATS hosting UNLV since 2001.

West Virginia at Notre Dame (+5, 147) 8:00E ESPNU

Notre Dame (13-3, 5-4-1 ATS) plays mostly zone defensive trying to hide defensive deficiencies and for the most part does a pretty solid job in holding opposing teams to 70.7 points per game. West Virginia (12-1, 5-7 ATS) recently had 26 consecutive game streak snapped scoring 70 or more points, however is 49-1 SU under coach Bob Huggins when shooting a higher field-goal percentage than its opponent. Despite incredible depth, the Mountaineers have a lot of walking wounded and would prefer to stay away from shootout with the Irish since they are 0-9 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game.

Everyone knows the Notre Dame basketball team does their best work at home and this is their chance to at least grab a little national attention, tying to upset West Virginia. Notre Dame has worked to piece together a representative club for league play and would be near the bottom of the Big East without seniors Luke Harangody and Tory Jackson, the stalwarts of the program. Coach Mike Brey will need tremendous performances from this dynamic duo, with the role players stepping up. It about shooting for Notre Dame, who is 13-0 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of shot attempts.

West Virginia is 0-8 and 3-5 ATS at South Bend the last 13 years.

Sunday, Jan. 10

Kansas at Tennessee (+6,151) 4:30E CBS

To date Kansas (14-0, 6-5 ATS) has been right on schedule as the nation’s best team, and the schedule had failed to bring the necessary tests to assure the Jayhawks are cohesive on both ends of the floor for 40 minutes, until Cornell contest. Kansas may be 23-8 ATS playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons, but playing in Knoxville with its fans is a demanding task. The emergence of Xavier Henry has overshadowed the personal problems Cole Aldrich has been dealing with family matters. This is precisely the kind of contest vets like Aldrich and guard Sherron Collins have to shine.

The Volunteers (11-2, 5-5 ATS) are 19-5 ATS as a home underdog or pick and master motivator Bruce Pearl will have his squad geeked. He’ll have to with four suspended players, including All-SEC performer Tyler Smith. The four were arrested on drug and weapons charges following a traffic stop after their 66-59 victory over the Tigers on New Year’s Eve. Tennessee has not been knocking down long distance shoots with any regularity (33.7) and it’s hard to imagine they clip Kansas without the three-ball swishing thru the nets. Pearl will look to Wayne Chism, J.P. Prince, and Scotty Hopson to pick up the scoring slack for suspended players and hope Renaldo Woolridge can fill is admirably for Smith.

Top notch test for both teams, with Kansas 17-3 ATS vs. good defensive teams allowing 42 percent or less since last year.

GMAC Bowl Preview

Quick, without looking it up, name the four bowl matchups that pitted two conference champions against one another. If you guessed Rose, Fiesta, BCS and the GMAC, advance to next page to collect your prize. (Sorry not really) Actually this bowl is full of surprises, some good and some not so good.

The GMAC Bowl has produced the most lopsided games of any bowls in recent years, as favorites are on an incredible 7-0 SU and ATS run, winning by an average margin of 30.3 points per game, despite what looked like occasionally fairly competitive games.

MAC champion Central Michigan (11-2, 8-3-1 ATS) hopes that trend continues as the favorite. The 2009 Chippewas were dominant as evidenced by the 33.2-to-17.2 scoring differential. CMU is led by Dan LeFevour, the greatest player in MAC history. Find that last statement too strong, not when you consider these numbers - 12,510 passing career yards, 101 passing touchdowns, running for almost 3,000 yards (2,936) and personally crossing the goal line 46 times. Most importantly, Central Michigan has won the league title in three of the four seasons LeFevour has been on the Mt. Pleasant campus. How important was he to the program, in the prior seven seasons the Chippewas were 26-51.

Like CMU, Troy (Sun Belt champion) won their conference for the third time in four years and comes in with a 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS mark. The Trojans quarterback fortunes changed for the better last year, when transfer Levi Brown was called upon due to injury and ineffectiveness of the two signal callers ahead of him and all he has done is lead Troy to back to back outright conference crowns.

At first glance, Central Michigan falling from a four-point favorite to 2.5 at Sportsbook.com doesn’t seem to hold water. Among Troy’s losses is one at Bowling Green 31-14 in the season opener, whom the Chippewas whipped 24-10 as nine-point road favorites later in the season. By the same token can any MAC team be taken seriously in a bowl game having lost all nine matchups the last two years (0-8-1 ATS)? In search of a positive, when the MAC faces another non-BCS conference in a bowl game, the favorite is 13-1-1 ATS.

Central Michigan players are dealing with a coach leaving as Butch Jones continues taking Brian Kelly leftovers (Kelly was at CMU) and moved on to Cincinnati. That leaves Steve Stripling as the interim head coach and lame ducks are 1-2 this bowl season (though Florida State situation was different). Don’t look for this to be a big deal, as this senior class went thru this as freshmen and they are moving on themselves and are going to be more interested in winning than worrying about a coach leaving. The Chips are 6-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons, winning by more than 10 points per game.

The Troy defensive front seven is going to have to be effective in containing LeFevour since its secondary is below average. The Trojans are athletic enough with DE Cameron Sheffield and LB Boris (where’s Natasha?) Lee to keep CMU quarterback from roaming around. Brown will have to outplay LeFevour and he should have time to pass since Central Michigan doesn’t generate much of pass rush. Troy often feeds on momentum and is 8-0 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games.

The Trojans have played in three prior bowl games with 1-2 SU and ATS, including 3-0 going OVER the total. CMU is 1-4 all-time as a bowler and is 2-1 ATS.

With the total at 63 consider this, Troy is 9-1 OVER as an underdog and Central Michigan is 6-0 UNDER away from home after one or more consecutive straight up wins this season. ESPN has the coverage starting at 7 Eastern.

3DW Line – Central Michigan by 7

A Nice Pair of College Hoops Matchups

Two games really stand out in college basketball this Wednesday, one a conference matchup between Top 25 teams and the other a sharp non-conference clash which is a measuring stick for both combatants. Wisconsin has emerged as a possible surprise player in the Big Ten and travels to Michigan State. It seems to happen every year, if Syracuse gets off to a fast start, sometime in January they hit a slump of not playing well. Off their first loss of the season at home against Pittsburgh 82-72, The Orangemen will look to keep this to an isolated incident, getting ready for Memphis.

Wisconsin at Michigan State 6:30E BTN

It’s not that Tom Izzo has given up preaching defense; he just has more skilled offensive players and has built his team around their strengths. Michigan State (11-3, 4-9 ATS) is averaging 82.4 points per game, powered by guard Kalin Lucas. The Spartans have the athletes to quickly cash in on turnovers, jetting down the floor for easy scores. Michigan State blasted a good Northwestern squad 91-70 on the road as five-point favorites and is giving 5.5-points to Wisconsin according to DiamondSportsbook.com. Sparty is 11-1 ATS roll as a home favorite by 6.5 or less.

At this point it should come as no surprise; Bo Ryan is a great coach for the Badgers. Wisconsin (8-4 ATS) is never given enough credit, since it lacks the type of big time recruits normally associated with Top 25 programs. Instead, Ryan gets the type of players he feels that have the right work ethic and in his view can get better with hard work through their careers in Madison. Trevon Hughes and Jon Leuer are perfect examples of Ryan’s way of thinking, as each has been a big part of Wisconsin’s 12-2 start and lofty ranking this season. The Badgers are well-suited by physical basketball and are 31-14 ATS versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds a game.
Michigan State has won seven straight conference home openers and is 8-2 and 5-5 ATS against Wisky at home.

Memphis at Syracuse 7:00E ESPN2

Coming into the season, Memphis (10-3, 3-5 ATS) didn’t look like they had the size to be a good rebounding team and it was going to be more dependent on guards to fight for a rebounds that were below the rim. This has largely proven to be true, but the 73-72 loss to Massachusetts brought it home, being outrebounded 44-24. In a one-point defeat, losing 21-4 in second chance points was immense. “I had trouble sleeping, because we gave this game away. -said Roburt Sallie. We’ll see what Memphis learned against Syracuse and see if they improve on 41-23 ATS record as a road underdog or pick.

Syracuse (13-1, 7-3 ATS) lost a large amount of talent, played its toughest non-conference schedule in years and has everyone rethinking how good the Orangemen can really be. Iowa State transfer Wes Johnson has been a cyclone for coach Jim Boehiem leading the Orange in just about everything, including unselfishness. Syracuse observers have marveled how willing this team is to share the ball, with guards Scoop Jardine and Andy Rautins each averaging more than five assists per game. With Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku fighting for every rebound, the Orange has a definite advantage in this contest. Boehiem’s bunch is at their best when score 75-80 points. (43-23 ATS)

Even with the loss to Pittsburgh, Syracuse is still 12-4 ATS as a home favorite in last 16 tries and is favored by nine-points with total of 146.5. Memphis hasn’t covered the spread since Dec. 9 and they might have difficulty doing so again as their outside shooting in fair at best, which is a big challenge against the Orangemen’s zone defense.

Orange Bowl Preview

This year’s Orange Bowl is so absurdly easy as what to watch for it barely needs to be acknowledged, however when scenarios like this occur, often the some other side of the story ends up what really determines the winner. Georgia Tech’s option offense is a sight to behold, ranking 11th in total offense, at 307 yards per game against teams that only surrendered 156 yards per contest on the ground.

Iowa was a sturdy defensive squad all season, allowing just 15.5 points per game and was ranked 11th in total defense in the country. On the year the Hawkeyes conceded just 3.5 yards per carry and fundamentally squeezed the life out of most offenses, never allowing more than 28 points in single game.

This is where many people has chosen to focus their attention and unquestionably it will be important, especially if it one-sided for their team. Nevertheless, when the Iowa has the ball and how Georgia Tech defends them will be equally as important.

Ricky Stanzi is expected back at quarterback for Iowa, after missing last two and half contests with injury. If you Goggled the term - winning ugly- you would get a Hawkeyes team picture. Stanzi threw just one more touchdown than interception on the season (15 vs. 14), but always seemed to play his best in the final 30 minutes. The Hawkeyes have underrated pass catchers like TE Tony Moeaki and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who led team in receptions. If Stanzi can get started, Iowa could move to 6-0 ATS after allowing 17 or fewer points like they did against Minnesota in 12-0 whitewashing.

Georgia Tech’s defense was strictly average against teams that didn’t run the ball well like Iowa; they for the most part held them in check. With the Hawkeyes running backs healed and ready to go, it’s impossible to overlook the fact the Yellow Jackets were gouged for 662 yards on the ground their last two games. Iowa might well come out with short passing attack, to loosen up the linebackers from Georgia Tech, before plowing ahead with the running game to test their mettle. Coach Paul Johnson’s club is 15-6 ATS on a grass field over the last two seasons.

All right, I can tell by the look on your face you are not buying this thought process. You are betting this game on one factor either way. Iowa holds Georgia Tech to 200 or less yards rushing and pulls the upset or the Yellow Jackets wear down the Hawkeyes with the constant thumping of the option and makes them jelly-legged and armed like they’ve been shoveling snow for four hours straight.

Iowa (10-2, 7-4 ATS) has been a sound bowl team, going 7-3 ATS in its last 10 and underdogs are 8-2 ATS in those games. The Hawkeyes are on the receiving end of 5.5-points at Bookmaker.com and have to attack the option. Defensive ends on either side have to work up-field to disrupt, but not getting out of position. The linebackers have to play assignment football and not run to QB Josh Nesbitt, otherwise any of the other speedy backs will go the distance. Iowa is 21-5 ATS versus rushing teams averaging 200 or more rushing yards a game.

Coach Johnson’s team lost twice and when they did they gained 205 and 95 yards on the ground, far below their average. Kirk Ferentz’s team really limited the opponent’s passing in holding them to 60 yards below their average at 165 YPG. Georgia Tech’s passing game always has the element of surprise, which catches opposing teams off guard. Coach Johnson teams are 10-1 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 17 or less points.

Both schools were superb away from home, with Iowa 4-1 and 5-0 ATS and the Rambling Wreck 6-1 SU and ATS. Underdogs are 5-1 ATS in Orange Bowl’s since 2004.

3DW Line – Georgia Tech by 3

Two Hardwood Televised Tilts

Today on the ESPN family of networks, two of the remaining four unbeaten teams in college basketball will lace’em up in trying to keep their noticeable fast starts intact. Fourth ranked Purdue continues their Big Ten schedule hosting Minnesota, while No. 2 Texas rekindles an old Southwest Conference rivalry with Arkansas.

Texas at Arkansas ESPN2

After defeating a number of notable teams in November and December, highly ranked Texas (13-0, 8-1 ATS) will try to keep the train rolling against Arkansas (7-7, 2-5 ATS). The Longhorns have only had one true road game at Rice, making this their first stop outside of the Lone Star State and a large crowd of Hogs fans is expected at Bud Walton Arena for these former conference rivals. Texas has comfortably lived up to all the preseason accolades and Damion Jones leads a roster of tremendously talented players. This comment might be the best way to describe Texas - "I think if we play to our potential, we can beat everybody we play," coach Rick Barnes said. The Horns are 8-1 ATS after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half over the last three seasons.

The start of the Arkansas season has been marred by two distinct aspects, injuries and suspensions. Sophomore guard Rotnei Clarke has been a scoring machine, but has missed time with knee tendinitis. Four players on scholarship have suspended for disciplinary reasons not all have returned to active roster. Coach John Pelphrey squad is going to have to shoot lights out just to compete with Texas and the Razorbacks are 8-17 ATS as an underdog in last 25 tries.

Bookmaker.com has Texas as 15.5-point favorite, with total of 149. The Longhorns convert 49.3 percent of their shots this season and Arkansas is 20-38 ATS versus shooting teams making 48 percent or more of their attempts.

Minnesota at Purdue 7:00E ESPN

In case you missed it, what an impressive performance by Purdue (13-0, 7-6 ATS) on New Year’s Day, whipping previously unbeaten West Virginia 77-62. The Boilermakers have been spotty on offense all season, however against the Mountaineers; they were spot on in hitting 50 percent of their shots and proved just how lethal they can be when their entire game comes together. “Once we get things clicking on offense, we’re very dangerous,” Center JaJuan Johnson said. Purdue is 16-4 ATS at home when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.

Minnesota (11-3, 8-5 ATS) arrives in West Lafayette, riding a seven-game winning streak that includes two conference wins over Penn state and Iowa. The Golden Gophers are led by senior guard Lawrence Westbrook, averaging a team-high 13.8 points. Minnesota will be without the services of center Ralph Sampson III, who is still nursing an ankle that forced him to miss previous game. Coach Tubby Smith is hoping Blake Hoffarber continues his sharp, averaging over 18 points a game during this win streak.

The Gophers are receiving eight points at Mackey Arena and are 8-20 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons. Purdue has been outstanding in protecting the ball, but like most teams can’t be letter perfect every encounter and are 3-11 ATS after four straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.

Purdue goes for its 500th win at Mackey Arena (499-114) off to its best start in 16 years.

Dual in the Desert of Unbeatens

What is great about Monday night’s Fiesta Bowl is that it makes for fascinating debate. Starting with the winner will be just one of two unbeaten teams in the country when the season is completed Thursday evening, and will likely end up rated second or third in the country, depending on several factors. If one team is dominant in Glendale, AZ they can raise the discussion point wondering how they might have done against Florida or either of the two participants in the BCS championship contest.

In reading, studying and breaking the two teams down, two elements arise, one for each team. TCU is the better team, period. Think about this for a second, if Cincinnati doesn’t execute last minute touchdown drive against Pittsburgh and if the Texas kicker hits the ball one yard further to the left, the Horned Frogs are playing Alabama in a few days.

How good has TCU (12-0, 8-3 ATS) been, they won in Death Valley at Clemson, who almost made Orange Bowl trip and went to BYU and kicked some Cougar tail 38-7, who in turn blitzed Oregon State 44-20 in the Las Vegas Bowl. TCU’s resume is further enhanced by the fact they beat all five bowl participants they played (4-1 ATS) and those same five squads each won their bowl matchup.

Coach Gary Patterson’s team outscored last seven opponents by average of 47-10 and off their 51-10 nailing of New Mexico in late November, are 9-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game. Here’s the rub, they played Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl last year, beating them 17-16 as three-point favorites, though dominated them in yardage 472-250. Most player quotes coming out of Fort Worth are similar to this, “Yes we are excited to be playing in BCS game against Boise State who is a very good team…….BUT we really would have liked to see how we would matchup against Florida or one of other BCS conferences teams”.

This does not signify that TCU won’t play an outstanding game, but you have to wonder at least a little about a club that is a seven-point favorite, facing a team in revenge mode, who feels they could be overlooked by opponent.

What does Boise State (13-0, 8-4 ATS) have to do to get beyond cute cousin status? Do they need to roll up the Smurf turf and maybe go to black turf instead and maybe change uniforms to more menacing colors to get street cred? What about quarterback Kellen Moore, who has 39 touchdowns and three interceptions, along with 65 percent throwing accuracy, having the nickname –The Assassin.

Alas, Boise isn’t Miami, so no documentary about how this program arose from essentially nothing to a consistent Top 15 performer this past decade. Coach Chris Peterson looks more like the local high school track coach, not somebody who runs one of the top football programs in the country and lacks the Bobby Petrino and Brian Kelly mentality to win for the next better job.

Peterson may look gentlemanly, but coaches like him have the fire burning and the Broncos are 25-8 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in five straight games. Under Peterson, this is Boise State’s third unblemished regular season in the last four years and the school’s fourth in the last six. They won a memorable game three years ago in same location over Oklahoma and the only team to stifle the Oregon Ducks offense as much as Ohio State did in the Rose Bowl was the Broncos in the first game of the year. They held the Ducks to 152 total yards.

DiamondSportsbook.com sees this as a more offensive affair then a year ago, with the total at 53.5 compared to last year’s 46 points in San Diego contest. We’ll keep with our Monday night theme. We’ll provide reasons why either team should cover. In the Fiesta Bowl, when the line is 5.5 or higher, the underdog has emerged the spread winner seven of last nine. In regards to the total, when the number is 51 or higher, the results have been 6-2 UNDER in most recent matchups.

Boise State covers if they can match TCU’s physicality. The offensive line is going to have to provide occasional creases against rugged Horned Frogs front for RB’s Jeremy Avery and Doug Martin. The Broncos only allowed five sacks all season, they are bound to give up a few to DE Jerry Hughes and others from aggressive TCU defense, hopefully they can minimize the damage and Moore can find targets quickly as he has all season. That is why first and second down will be so important for Boise State, trying to stay out of third and longs. The Broncos cannot allow TCU ground game to churn, they must shed blocks and fill gaps, something they did struggle with at different times against better rushing teams. The Broncos are 24-6 ATS versus offensive teams averaging 425 yards a game and have revenge and possible disrespect card to play.

TCU covers if they come to make a statement. Though it is not always easy to tell against a variety of substandard competition, Coach Patterson’s team appears capable of beating ANY team in the country on a given day. If TCU plays with the same purpose they have all season and doesn’t have fascinations about Gators, Longhorns or a team from Tuscaloosa, they win by at least 10 points. Coach Patterson’s crew has speed edge and can be disrupt any offensive. QB Andy Dalton matured into an accurate thrower as a senior (22 touchdowns and five interceptions) and truly does have a stable of running backs to run behind a punishing offensive line that could wear down Boise State. It’s not an accident the Frogs are 13-4 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in consecutive games.

Bowl System – Play Under in any bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier non-BCS conferences. (38-14, ATS L10Y)

Pittsburgh visits the Queen City

The Pittsburgh Panthers drew the dreaded Saturday-Monday Big East slate to begin league play, both on the road. The first part of the process was no problem after upsetting previously undefeated Syracuse 82-72. Now it’s off to the Queen City for the Panthers (12-2, 5-4-2 ATS) who have won five in a row.

Pittsburgh has survived despite having its fewest number of returning starters in years. Brad Wanamaker has emerged as more of a scoring guard than expected and Nasir Robinson has added to the offense. Jermaine Dixon is finally healthy and making solid contributions and Ashton Gibbs has been dropping some three-point bombs.

Even with how good Pitt basketball has been for a number of years, highly-touted freshman Dante Taylor is their first McDonald’s All-American in 21 years. Pittsburgh comes into this game 10-1 ATS after four straight wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.

Cincinnati (10-3, 4-4-1 ATS) is a tweener team, they could be better or worse than preseason prognostications or just middle of the pack in the Big East. The potential is there for the Bearcats to be quite good as the backcourt Deonta Vaughn, redshirt freshman Cashmere Wright and true frosh Lance Stephenson could be second only to Villanova. For Cincy to be noticed, they must be unbeaten at home and close to .500 on the road.

The Bearcats have started strong in Big East play with wins over Connecticut and Rutgers and to move up on the next rung of the conference ladder, they must overcome 5-18 ATS record after playing a game as favorite.

DiamondSportsbook.com Cincinnati has 4.5-point favorites, with total of 126. The Bearcats are unsightly 0-10 ATS after playing consecutive games as favorite and 11-2 OVER in home games after three contests allowing a shooting percentage of 40 percent or less. Pittsburgh is well aware of Cincy’s failures vs. better clubs (2-9 ATS against teams with win percentage of 80 percent or higher the last two years) and will have to match their intensity on the road. The Panthers are 10-2 OVER when the total is 129.5 or less over the last three seasons.

ESPN has this telecast for the unofficial start of Big Monday and Pittsburgh has won five of last six encounters against Cincinnati with .500 spread mark.

Top Monday NBA Systems

The first Monday of the New Year in the NBA finds four games on the NBA agenda. All season we have been providing winning information on this day of the week, with our top situation that matches up with each NBA contests. Here is a look at the top systems for today. Numbers from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Atlanta at Miami (+1.5, 195.5)

The Atlanta Hawks have hit their first slump of the season, losing three of four, however, tonight’s opponent and division rival Miami is also carrying three game losing streak. When a situation like this arises, look to play on road favorites after two or more consecutive losses, if they have winning 60-75 percentage on the season. Over the last three seasons, this system checks in at 32-12 ATS.

Oklahoma City at Chicago (-2, 194)

When it comes to three-point shooting, it’s hard to matchup two worst teams than these two. Oklahoma City is 26th (31.7 percent) and Chicago is tick behind at 31.6 percent. Even without this as part of the offensive arsenal, look to Play Over in a game involving two poor three point shooting teams, with the Bulls an average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense like the Thunder (14.5-16.5 TO's). In the last five seasons, this system is solid 82-45 OVER.

New Orleans at Utah (-7.5, 196)

The Hornets don’t have a number of offensive weapons, which is why they rank 19th in scoring at 98 points per game. They travel to Utah off a pair of close home victories over Miami (95-91) and Houston (99-95). It has been best to play against teams like New Orleans who are decent on offense (98-102 points per game) against a defensive team like the Jazz (92-98 PPG), after two straight wins by six points or less. Since 2005, this system is 33-9 ATS, 78.5 percent.

Portland at L.A. Clippers (-4, 189.5)

Any rest in the NBA is looked upon as being good, considering the grueling schedule. This can refresh the legs and help any team player better defense with more energy. In this Western Conference conflict, check out the UNDER, since home teams are 38-18 when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, after successfully covering the spread in two or more games, playing four or less games in 10 days.

NFL Week 17 Betting Stuff

This is the final week for sports bettors in the NFL to take one last look at a full card before next September. There are meaningful matchups, potentially interesting contests and other games that are about as intriguing as watching “Cougar-Town”. Let’s take one last ride and go through all the relevant betting information for the final week of the NFL season.

Playoff Picture

The NFC playoff teams are set, it just a matter of who plays who. New Orleans is top seed and Philadelphia is second seed if they win at Dallas. However, if the Cowboys win, there are two ways they could end up with second seed, two ways Minnesota could be second seed and one way Arizona could jump from fourth to second seed. For the wild card, Green Bay is presently fifth seed, but with a loss in the desert, probably falls to six seed. The Eagles will be either a second, fifth or sixth seed.

The AFC wild picture is more muddled, just not at the top; Indianapolis and San Diego are essentially off this week and next (more on that in a moment). If New England wins at Houston, they are third seed, but slip to fourth if they lose and Cincinnati wins later Sunday night. If Baltimore and the New York Jets win, they are the last two playoff teams in the AFC, if they lose; suddenly the Rubik’s Cube is easier to figure out. As a public service here is how it works out in the AFC if either the Ravens or Jets falter.

Real Life or Football

Though football can sometimes feel like life or death, here is further proof it is not. Imagine your company is on pace for record year 10 months into your fiscal and the national sales manager decides to take his key sales people off the road for a couple of weeks during the last two months and let less qualified sales staff handle accounts. The national sales manager’s reasoning is that the company already had a very successful year and company strategists have created bonus plans for the first quarter of the next year if it is a record first quarter. Here’s the kicker, the CEO and president agree with NSM. And the Indianapolis Colts are wondering why they’ve been criticized for not going after 16-0 season.

Week 17 Angles

* Teams off exactly three ATS losses are 8-17 ATS the last week of the regular season.( Jacksonville - Seattle)
* Teams off three or more spread losses are 23-7 UNDER in the last week of the regular season. (New Orleans)
* In the last week of the regular season, home favorites of three or fewer points are 18-10 ATS. (Cleveland – Dallas- Arizona)
* In Week 17, home underdogs off an away game are 4-11 ATS. (Detroit- Oakland – Seattle –Note: These same clubs are also 11-21 ATS off a loss which each suffered)
* Teams that have played Over three times or more coming into the final game of the regular season are 6-1 ATS and 6-1 OVER. (N.Y. Giants – Denver)
* Teams that have played Under exactly three straight games are 7-3 OVER to conclude the season. (New Orleans – Dallas)
* Teams that have played Under four or more games in a row are 23-13 OVER in final contest ( San Francisco- Buffalo- Tampa Bay- Atlanta –New England)
* The Indianapolis Colts are 4-14 ATS in regular season finales.
* The New England Patriots are 18-6 ATS in their last regular season game.
* The Oakland Raiders are dismal 5-17 ATS in their final regular season contest.

Killer NFL Systems

*Play On all teams like Philadelphia when the line is +3 to -3, revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season. Over the last ten seasons, this system is 27-3 ATS, 90 percent.
*Play On a non-conference home teams like San Diego off SU road win in their final game of the season. In the last nine years this system is 12-4, 75 percent.

Super Duper Trends

*Seattle is 0-8 ATS as an underdog this season, losing by 19.9 points per game.
*Arizona is 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons winning by 9.9 points per contest.
*Baltimore is 9-0 ATS playing against a team with a losing record since last season, destroying them by 23 points per game.
*Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS on the road in 2009. (Be careful here, however)
The SU winner of Philadelphia and Dallas is 31-5-1 ATS.

Slippery Slope Situations

*The Green Bay at Arizona contest is one of the three potential matchups for the first week of the playoffs next weekend. Arizona has more to play for since they could move up in seeding; however by game time they will know what they are playing for with Minnesota decision in. In truth, Green Bay could probably care less if they face the Cardinals or Vikings since they are on the road either way. Going into the game, coach Mike McCarthy has to figure its back to the desert and expect vanilla pudding game plans for both squads and a challenging wager any way you want to look at it.

*Cincinnati at New York Jets (See Sunday Night article)

*The Eagles and Cowboys have to give maximum effort with division crown and potentially No. 2 seed on the line. Both teams are playing their best football of the season and with the way New Orleans and Minnesota are struggling, it is not a stretch to surmise the winner of this game could well be the NFC representative for the Super Bowl.

*Bill Belichick has always been intent on winning every game, but the fact remains New England has a home playoff game next week and to get to the Super Bowl they will have to probably defeat San Diego and Indianapolis on the road, thus, which order they would play them has little bearing to them. Houston still has ample motivation, the playoffs are still a possibility, first-ever winning season on the line and creating buzz for next year, plus closing with four-game winning streak, though lamenting 1-5 and 2-4 ATS record in division.